I want to talk about me planting my flag in the ground and calling a bottom in Natural Gas. Maybe tomorrow will go lower, maybe it won’t. Either way tomorrow’s action or today’s will mark a bottom in Natural Gas and I’m playing it that way. I went long the Jan 10 2010 calls today. If I’m right, I’d like Gold bars as presents. If I’m wrong you can send me Lil’ turkey muffins and weenie wraps.

Next BG was getting rolling and I checked my charts and I jumped in. I trimmed some of the position for 40% and held the rest.

GRO which was highlighted two days ago, very nice pop today

MBI – stuck to my chart on this one and mentioned that the flag yesterday should bring an up move today. The flag created today should bring more up move tomorrow.

The only thing not doing well were the long index positions, but I think the market will move to new highs this week, so I’m not that concerned.

ROYL also highlighted yesterday saw a spark today. XOM continues to march – slowly.
I bought a small position in GSS, the chart turned, but I still have it. I’ll watch it tomorrow and maybe sell in the morning or hold if it swaps back.

Dry bulks are on fire, but they have run without me, so I wait for an entry. Trend is really turning on all of them.

I’m long the 2x RUT, NDX, SPX index funds.

I went long KFT calls yesterday and sold today for 10%.
I got into GRO based on the charts I posted yesterday and as usual my own custom indicators.
I bought XOM calls yesterday as well.

Today I got into DE Jan 50 calls and here is why.

Got me some ROYL today. I love the consolidation at the 50w ma.

MBI I bought it this morning. Unfortunately I bought near the high due to seeing it late in the morning. My motto though is “I don’t care.” If its on a buy, buy it. If its on a sell, sell it.

Got this in case market was cracking, it didn’t.

Could I have gotten POT today? Yes. Could I have gotten in under 100? Yes. However, I didn’t. On a pullback I’ll be interested.

It looks like if this market is going to move down it needs to do it next week. The market has many divergences going on particularly the weakness in financials, however, divergences are not guarantees.

As far as SPX levels go, it closed right in a tight range. There are resistance levels at 1096 and 1097ish, but it may or may not be enough to contain the SPX, we could break higher. I think fake breakout or breakdown will occur before the real move.

Here are some charts I’m looking at:

Here are some of them.

Ok so what is next? As far as the SPX goes we closed above all levels. If we open below 1096.56 tomorrow I’ll go short the indexes. On the long side I’m eyeing the uranium names: CCJ, UEC, URRE, and I’ll keep a close eye on the dry bulks again.

Top side targets on $SPX are 1096.56-1097.51.

I’m waiting to see how $SPX handles this area. If we break to the upside, 1156-1161-1164 is another cluster of resistance. However, there is enough space there that it will open up the market to play some breakouts. If the market doesn’t handle the resistance of 1096.56-1097.51 then I’ll look to short down 1080.

The key now is to play small, but the upside move is the most likely scenario at this point.

Posted Monday:

Now this is the way it looks today:

Now I’m short via my index 2x funds $NDX, $SPX, $RUT, SSO Dec 34 puts, TZA Jan 15 calls, TZA Dec 14 calls, and long TZA as well. I’ll be getting some FAZ, DRV, and various other inverse funds. If topside resistance breaks I’ll look to cover, but I don’t see it happening.

Louise Yamada on Fast Money mentioned several divergences on different indicators and talked about the market looking to correct underneath the surface. I don’t look at anything she looks at, yet we are both seeing technical deterioration underneath the surface.

I’m long MCO DEC 23 puts and Jan 22.5 puts

25% gain in BCRX calls. Unfortunately for me I executed the trade poorly this morning in BCRX. Some would say, hey you caught the trade the day before and made money that is all that matters. Not to me. I’m looking to get better.

So that is what I did. The market flipped and all those positions would have been shit by eod, however, they were all gains. C dropped below 4, the RUT finished DOWN -2.6% 2x, and NDX and SPX closed flat, which would have crushed TNA and SSO.

Only thing I did was buy BCRX Dec 10 calls at the close based on this:

Lets take a look at two earnings plays today:
WFMI

CSCO

My SPX Scenario:

Today also supported the charts I’ve been posted about the range made in the SPX. Here they are:

I held long today in my index funds and some positions. However, I did sell out of all my option positions. Some losers, most winners. I did execute poorly today despite turning around a losing day.

Started out down and as I bought more and more calls in the morning, my account was down naturally.

This is when the market started to come back positive.

I sold out of the call positions when we ramped up and had another minor sold off. I was correct for a few hours, but capital was depleted and couldn’t reload at the lows. I should not have sold these calls despite turning a losing day into a winner. The signals were primed, I just got scared and wanted to lower my risk/exposure. Thankfully I didn’t screw up everything and kept my larger money long and I still have TNA, SSO, C, C calls, FEED, GMR. X calls got sold I think for 8% gain, MON calls from yesterday were sold for a loss and rightfully so, the chart turned, but the sector is heating up and MON is oversold. There could be something brewing still with that stock.

These are trading mistakes that I am constantly trying to improve upon.

This actually closed overbought on the 60min, I’m now interested in getting out after seeing this (not displayed in the chart). I will look to get out, but you can see why I bought in. Small positions in this.

Just for fun, I didn’t catch this and have no position:

If you want your favorite symbol read let me know. Post coming up analyzing some other stocks.

So far anything I’m in has turned to green, so we either close up, or this could just be setting up for tomorrow and having a stealth close.

Positions: Sold X calls for 6% (I got scared, nothing changed, probably will be up much more), TNA calls Dec 36, Nov 37; SSO Nov 33, Nov 34; SSO, TNA

I posted this same chart on Friday. SPX made a range and if we closed above that range I was getting long. Well today we tested below and closed above. This is a very short term bullish scenario imo. With this information I went long $SPX, $RUT, $NDX in the index funds, MON Nov 70 calls, SSO, SSO Nov 34, and X dec 35 calls.

My mistakes today were the X calls – really though it was a mixture of Ameritrade’s and my own mistake because once the profit disappeared I went to watch some TV. I was looking at the daily chart on X as the main reason to be long X and when we broke I had to protect. It was a crazy day I think for everyone except people who specialize in scalping. The second mistake was buying SRS calls. I thought we were cracking down and I was looking at this setup for SRS:

It didn’t work out. However, I want to buy SRS or other inverse real estate etf’s on up moves in the market this week.

Winners today:
JEC puts, RYL puts, AIG puts. All sold all winners.

Even though these 3 were winners, they all recovered to form some version of reversal candlestick patterns.

I will sell any of these longs if profitable. I want to get short on an upmove in the market as long as the market does roll past those top side resistance numbers I mentioned. This could be what the market is in for.

If you want me to look at any symbols with my indicators just ask and I’ll post em.

Remember this chart? Breaking the purple crayon

A SAMPLING of today’s charts of symbols. If you want to see another symbol under my indicators I’ll post the chart.

Instead of recap of today, I’m in 99% cash and bought X Dec 35 calls for a play into next week. Fast Money Tim Seymour is interested in steel stocks as well.

The RUT gained 4.9%, SPX 4.5%, and then doubled up this position at 10:45 and further tacked on gains there.

My BAC calls I sold for gains, but executed poorly. There was no reason to sell, I went to get a cavity filling replaced and just didn’t want the exposure on the table.

My FSLR options got squashed today for -94%. I char.ly’d the chart of where I went wrong. What happened is that I saw the FSLR chart setting up all day and I wanted to take a chance. My 60min chart was green and I must have bought them sometime around 3:45 and never looked at the chart again. What happened was that the chart went to a sell right before the close. You will see why this matters with the LVS chart.

Also without recapping the trade, GNK calls were sold for an overnight gain of 40% and 52%. I also took a daytrade in some WFT calls that were stopped out for a loss of 21%.

I purchased WMT Dec 50 calls today. Up 7% and 9% with diff buys.

LVS – I tweeted: “I’m going to take a shot at some $LVS, daily chart says to. My earnings plays have been shite though. Well $GNK was a star actually.” Well you can see that the chart below shows the red part. That is where I bought the NOV 16 calls. Then I tweeted: “I remained long 100% the 2x index longs, will cover in the morning. $LVS rolled back to a buy on my chart thnkflly. Will post chart later.”

*I’ll add the daily LVS chart later as its on my desktop.