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Why Stocks didn’t take cue from Jobless Rate?

2009-11-09T15:44:00.002+08:00

Recession may be over, at least for now, but the same cannot be said about U.S. unemployment market. The jobless rate surprisingly surpassed analysts’ estimate (of 9.9%) to a staggering 10.2% in Oct, higher than Sep’s 9.8% jobless rate. Strangely enough the stock markets, both Dow Jones and Nasdaq, didn’t take much cue from the double-digit jobless rate which is the highest since early 1983. United States recorded jobless rate of 10.8% during the period of September 1982 to July 1983 while during World War II the country experienced 11% of unemployment. The latest data may send U.S. economists at MFR Inc. back to the drawing board since their prediction of hitting jobless rate of 11% by mid-2010 may come sooner than expected.

So what does this means? It only means that while we may not have the opportunity to witness yet again another 1929 depression, the recovery is definitely moving at a snail pace. Make no mistake about it – the U.S. economy didn’t dive to the like of 1929 Depression because of government’s stimulus package and it appears that Obama’s administration may has no other option but to get ready it’s second stimulus bill, in case of more surprises such as credit card burst. But there’s something more worrying about the economy model that is sending many economists cracking their heads.

The global recession sparked by U.S. subprime mortgages problem may be the turning point that will shape a new way of how business cycle operates. We may not be able to claim back the jobs destroyed during the recession because if the latest jobless rate is anything to go by – jobs will not necessary be replenished after the recession dust is over. Recession which ended in 1991 took a year before re-hiring resumed and the recession ended 2001 took two years before the jobless could find their job. So if we’re lucky the current jobless rate may take at least three years to recover, provided the old way of business cycle is still intact.

However we’re no longer living in the age of manufacturing, at least not United States, a country which inherited such business model when one-third of their workforce were in the manufacturing. Of course the new manufacturing hub now is China but in the meantime what shall the U.S. men and women who lost their jobs do? With automation, technology and the shift in the services sector as the new way of doing business, employers may just have found the excuses of not hiring as many as they did before the recession. Hence it's interesting to watch the next month's jobless rate data.

Back to the stocks, one of the reasons why the market didn’t tumble after the jobless rate data was release could be due to the bet that Federal Reserve has no reason to hike the banking lending rate so the record low rate or zero to 0.25% may stay for some time. Lower interest rate makes dollar unattractive and this would pump more liquidity into the stock market. So where will be new interests? Definitely you can short the dollar in currency trading; gold is still skyrocketing as if there’s no tomorrow and the Hurricane Ida may just create enough havoc in the Gulf Coast to push up oil prices.

Another reason why the stocks are still relatively bullish is due to the fact that holiday season is around the corner. Analysts are still waiting for the retailers’ earnings reports for clues if the consumers are willing to spend. Christmas may be used as an excuse to spend but otherwise the Dow Jones may drop to below 10,000 once the retailers’ earnings reports are not favorable.

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Ong, Chua - You May Kiss Each Other, for now

2009-10-27T17:54:00.002+08:00

Budget 2010 revealed by PM Najib Razak was so boring that one was wondering if it was so difficult to draft a better budget that could benefit the average Joes. Why on earth would anyone care about the 1% reduction in income tax for those who earn above RM100,000 per annum? The cost of living was so high that it would be interesting to see the reaction from average-Joes when Najib’s administration is set to introduce the much talk about GST soon (budget 2011?). The fact is although Najib may like (was he?) to do more to win back voters’ confidence he couldn’t do so simply because the escalating corruption is beyond his control lest he wish to start a new war with the UMNO warlords.

Sure, the PM was reported to be concerned about the recent leakages in the audit report but nobody in the right minds believe Najib would do anything except merely sloganeering – just like his predecessor Abdullah Badawi. The whole government’s structure is so corrupted that people has accepted such culture to be part of the country’s administration led by BN. Najib should thank his advisor, former premier Mahathir, because without his mentor the country would not flourish with corruption till today hence the PM does not have to quietly minus about 30% off the budget expenditure as leakages. Was the country so broke that the government has to re-introduce the previously scrapped property tax at this juncture?

Anyway, there is a more interesting drama happening than the boring budget 2010. Many people had predicted MCA President Ong Tee Kiat and his former deputy Chua Soi Lek to follow the history of their predecessors’ fate, Team-A and Team-B, of which will see the departure of both for “younger” successors. You may not like Ong Tee Kiat but in the latest political move you just got to admire this lone ranger. At last he understood that in politics sometimes you have to eat humble pie and do the unexpected such as to hug and kiss your enemy for support when you’re cornered by a deadlier enemy – betrayed by your most trusted lieutenant.

There’s no doubt that the newly appointed deputy MCA president Liow Tiong Lai belongs to the “third force” who was trying to take Ong Tee Kiat and Chua Soi Lek out of the equation. Some said Liow was the leader of the third force but I’m not too sure. Liow can easily rival former President Ling Liong Sik as the greatest puppet to Najib’s UMNO party. You do not have to be rocket scientist to guess who are the members of the third force – former Transport Minister Chan Kong Choy, former MCA president Ong Ka Ting and his own brother Ong Ka Chuan, former MCA president Ling Liong Sik and of course the controversial billionaire Tiong King Sing who was the big boss affected by the PKFZ scandal. Emerging members of the third force are people like Tiong King Sing’s buddy Wee Ka Siong, Chew Mei Fun (Ong Tee Kiat’s boot-licker) and other former ministers.

It’s almost impossible to fight such a powerful third force who has billions to spend in their attempt to gain control of MCA and indirectly the ticket to richest (more corruptions and scandals) so it must be really hard for Ong Tee Kiat to put his principle on back seat and temporary makes up with Chua Soi Lek. Credit should be given to Ong for his latest brilliant political move in joining forces with Chua to check-mate the third force representative, Liow Tiong Lai. The third force was speechless as it did not expect Ong to hold the hand of a person (Chua) whose cuckoo was exposed in his sex-DVD scandal. But the biggest question was did Najib’s administration played any part in the third force as well?

It was quite easy to justify why speculators believed Najib’s administration was somehow involved in the initial plan to kick and hang Ong’s (and later Chua) balls on the wall. Ong’s revealation about PKFZ’s scandal was disastrous enough to Najib’s administration. Ong has breached the basic rules of BN political games and that is exposing scandals to the amusement of the oppositions and voters. Ong should have sweep the scandals under the carpet and for him to open up the can of worms was tantamount to slap Najib on the face. Even Mahathir has suggested that Najib should “interfere” in the MCA’s power struggle (and in the process appoint someone obedient to UMNO?).

It’s not easy to find someone like Ong Tee Kiat who was willing to expose such scandal, regardless of whatever reason he did that in the first place. On the other hand there’re thousands of MCA politicians who are willing to become puppets as long as there’re millions to make. It’ll be interesting to see if Ong can still bark about PKFZ issue now that the scandal is slowly swept under the carpet after taken over by Najib’s other boys. The next episode should see how Chua Soi Lek tries to wrest back his deputy President post from the traitor Liow Tiong Lai. But with Registrar of Societies (ROS) adopting “hear no evil, see no evil” over Chua’s status, Chua and Ong needs to work together to get rid of traitors from the third force team.

Without Chua’s support Ong is history and without Ong’s remaining popularity, Chua would find it hard to comeback especially after his sex DVD scandal refuse to die the natural death. If a principled Ong can accept Chua’s past sex scandal it was hope naturally the rest of MCA members can do the same. No doubt Ong and Chua’s feud will restart again but that has to take a back seat, at least for the time being. Now is the crucial time to ensure the survival of both Ong and Chua. If both of them can stay united during current trying moment, not even dictator Mahathir can do anything about it. But the journey to dispose the third force will take many months, not to mention the huge resources required since the third force’s veteran team members are loaded with money.

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Hong Leong to Acquire Public Bank – A Matter of Time?

2009-10-19T14:01:00.003+08:00

Public Bank is perhaps one of the stocks everyone would like to own for obvious reason. If you owned 1,000 Public Bank Berhad (KLSE: PBBANK, stock-code 1295) shares back in 1967, you would have 129,720 shares which is worth a whopping RM1.38 million today. If that is not enough to raise your eyebrows consider another RM391,000 gross dividends paid to you ever since and you’re looking at an investment that gives you compounded annual return of more than 20% for each of the 42 years. With your Public Bank stock’s investment you can easily place a call to Warren Buffett and claim your trophy.

Public Bank is also one of the banking stocks that stood stubbornly without a free-fall during the global financial crisis. I’ve wrote that while I like Public Bank for its conservative yet prudent management style which made the stock able to stand against the strong turbulence over the numerous past crisis or recessions, this is also a company that does not spell out its succession plan clearly enough to convince investors that should the founder Teh Hong Piow was no longer around, the company will continue its journey without much hiccups.

It’s no secret that the 78-year-old Teh Hong Piow has a “close model friend” from East Malaysia who was crying over a business deal gone sour but finally managed to get the sole Malaysian franchisee rights to the prestigious Ford Supermodel contest. Hmm, wonder who will be her sponsor for the contest *grin*. It’s also a well known fact that billionaire Teh Hong Piow was hospitalised for so-called minor operation recently. But not many know the seriousness of his health. Of course you don’t expect Public Bank’s spokesperson to tell you the truth about the tycoon’s condition lest the company wish to see the stock tumbles.

While many investors sing songs of praises of Public Bank’s stock the same cannot be said about the bank’s employees. Most of the employees do not like the idea that they’re somehow being force to commit certain quota in bringing sales to the company although they’re not in the sales department. Some were heard complaining about being forced to perform during the annual dinner to the delights of the tycoon. But if the recent indefinite postponement or cancellation of annual dinners is anything to go by, you may wish to evaluate your portfolio especially if you’ve Public Bank stock. Speculation is running wild “quietly” that Teh Hong Piow’s health is deterioting and the risk of holding the stock has since gone up.

From a mere S$130 a month working as a clerk in Oversea Chinese Banking Corp (OCBC) in 1950 to becming Malaysia’s third richest person with an estimated RM8.2 billion in wealth, it is sad to note that none of Teh Hong Piow’s four children (three daughters and a son) will continue to build or at least maintain the empire built more than four decades ago. Although Teh Hong Piow has his most-trusted man, Managing Director Tay Ah Lek, in position to continue the banking business after he’s no longer around, the most likely scenario is a Merger and Acquisition will take place. The question – who will be the lucky person to be granted the authority to acquire the crown jewel Public Bank Berhad?

With the current political landscape it’s easy to point the finger at none other than tycoon Quek Leng Chan, the founder of Hong Leong Group Malaysia which owns Hong Leong Bank. Prime Minister Najib’s fourth brother, Mohamed Nazim Razak, is the non-executive director of Hong Leong Bank Berhad (KLSE: HLBANK, stock-code 5819). With not much time left you can’t blame the senior Teh for enjoying his life to the fullest now but he would have definitely negotiated for the best price for his stake in Public Bank Berhad. After all he has been working very hard in building the empire so it’s only natural for him to claim the last trophy (premium).

Nevertheless Quek is no ordinary businessman so expect him to put in all his efforts in acquiring the best managed bank with cheapest possible offer-price. Furthermore political advantage is on Quek’s side hence there should not be any hindrance from the Central Bank. The biggest question is whether the current Najib’s administration would allow Hong Leong Bank to become such a giant (if merged with Public Bank) that it would undermine government-linked-banks such as largest lender Malayan Banking Berhad’s (KLSE: MAYBANK, stock-code 1155). But then Najib can always grant his brother Nazir Razak’s Bumiputra-Commerce Holdings Berhad (KLSE: COMMERZ, stock-code 1023) the go-ahead to acquire MayBank, can’t he?

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Earnings Season send Bull Charging, Next Target - 10,000

2009-10-14T23:08:00.002+08:00

Earnings season is here again and all eye-balls are watching for indicators that U.S. economy is indeed on its way to recovery. Even if the recovery is not in full-scale at least it would provide some consolation if companies’ earnings could show momentums. At the moment the important 10,000-level is what everyone is hoping to see the Dow Jones to breach. So far so good with strong third-quarter earnings from JPMorgan Chase & Co which reported $3.59 billion profit and earn 82 cents a share, easily beat analysts forecast of 52 cents per share.

But JPMorgan, U.S.’s largest bank by assets, is one of the strongest financial companies thanks to it’s relatively exposure in subprime mortgages problem. It would be disastrous if a company such as JPMorgan could not beat market analysts. The fact that residential mortgages and credit cards still defaulting at a pace that is eating into JPMorgan’s profit pie is indeed worrying. Even Chief Financial Officer Mike Cavanaugh said during a conference call with reporters that the bank "can't at the moment be certain" that the (bullish) trend will continue.

On the technology stocks Intel Corp. also beats analysts’ estimates, reporting a smaller-than-expected decline in profit and sales. Intel’s expectation that the final quarter of the year should beat analyst projections raised hope the computer market was improving, hopefully. Nevertheless Intel’s third-quarter revenue of $9.4 billion, operating income of $2.6 billion, net income of $1.9 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of 33 cents were sufficient to send cheers into the overall technology stocks.

It would be interesting to see if other companies could follow the same sentiment because it would certainly help Dow Jones’s journey into the 10,000-level territory. In any case if there are negative signals from big-boys’ earnings it could easily reverse the current bullish trend. During current stage it’s always a wise move to take some money off the table if your portfolios are in profit because it’s a fact nobody can say for certain the U.S. housing market and unemployment has bottomed.

That’s right – the housing did not collapse because the U.S. government was supporting it but you need more than government’s involvement to say for sure the worst is over. Now, analysts are worry that Federal Housing Administration (FHA), which has guaranteed about 25% of all new U.S. mortgages written in 2009, may need a bailout. Naturally the scream of Sucker’s Rally re-emerged again. But there’s good news for gold investors because the metal has hit another new high of $1064 on Tuesday *WoW*. Anyway, it’s not easy to surpass the psychology 10,000-level and it’s purely a bet whether it would cross the line or not.

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Maxis Relisting – The Race for the Pathetic Limited Shares

2009-09-29T17:22:00.002+08:00

Excitement returns once again, at least to the employees of Maxis Communications Berhad who enjoyed their fortunes via ESOS not many moons ago. Will their big boss Ananda Krishnan be generous enough to distribute some pink forms to them, again? It may or may not happen because the situation is quite unique now. The whole re-listing of Maxis is still sketchy especially to the employees. The whole plan is still at draft level and until the official IPO prospectus is out Maxis together with the guaranteed underwriter, CIMB Group (CEO Nazir Razak – brother of PM Najib Razak) with Credit Suisse and Goldman Sachs, can still go back to the drawing board for amendments.

The re-listing is of course for real. As a matter of fact the moment PM Najib Razak announced he was persuading Maxis to relist again (after privatization on June, 2007) in the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange in his effort to lure foreign investors’ hot money into the country, you know the decision (to relist) had been made many weeks earlier. The only concern is definitely the timing for the listing considering many are still cautious about the global economy especially in the United States. And do I need to tell you again the main problem of the U.S.’s economy currently? If the IPO of Maxis proceeds as planned, it would definitely be the biggest IPO ever.

Unlike seven years ago (2002) when the company needs the money to expand the busines Maxis’s re-entry this time is due to different reason(s). Maxis actually do not need to re-list again considering it is enjoying a very healthy of cash-flow. Its revenue recorded RM6.95 billion, RM7.68 billion and RM8.44 billion for the financial year ending 31 December 2006, 2007 and 2008 respectively. The net profit registered was RM2.10 billion, RM1.98 billion and RM2.40 billion for the same period. Net earnings per share were at 28.1 sen, 26.4 sen and 32.0 sen from 2006 to 2008. Unless you’ve freaking good reasons (or excuses) to take your company through the process of listing again, one cannot imagine why such a company would want to tap the public funds.

While the company only disclosed its domestic financial figures to the Securities Commission pre-listing hence hinting the operations and growth prospect in India (via Aircel) and Indonesia (PT Natrindo) are excluded, at least for the time being, you’ll be facing another grey area should Maxis decided to inject these overseas operation into Maxis Communications Berhad later. Who can forget the hundreds of millions in losses from the Astro’s Indonesia venture? However traditionally blue-chip stock such as Maxis is almost guaranteed to command premium post-IPO thus there’s still money to be made. The question instead is whether you as a retail investor will be able to gain exposure to the stock pre-IPO due to limitation in retail portion.

There’ll be no new share issued but 30% of the IPO shares will be from the current stakeholders. Post-IPO, Maxis Communications Berhad will hold 70% stake in Maxis Berhad while the remaining 30% goes to retail and institutional investors. The bad news – retailers will get only 2.33% (174.795 million shares) and institutional investors get the lion 27.67% (2.075 billion shares) portion. The worse news – if you’re not privileged Maxis customers, dealers, directors and whatnot you’re cannibalizing each other in the retail segment because the allocation is actually 1.50% (112.5 million shares) of the 2.25 billions shares to be floated in the stock exchange. The worst news – the segregation of 1% (75 million shares) and 0.5% (37.5 million shares) for bumiputra and non-bumiputra respectively means you’re into “gladiator games” fighting the wild animals (institutional investors and privileged retailers) and your fellow comrades (average Joes from bumiputra or non-bumiputra).

The argument that associates retail investors with “dumping risk” group actually does not hold water. They don’t cry and jump from 18th floor because they got burnt for no apparent reason. The fact is retail investors are more emotional attached to their stocks than anybody so it was the institutional investors who will never think twice about dumping their stocks the moment the technical indicators said so. In the contrary retailers will keep their stocks (they never learn, do they?) under their pillow even during market crashes. Most of the retailers are expert in buying but not in selling *grin*.

Another fact that you may need to know about Maxis is this company is a different animal now compared to seven years ago. The market is already saturated with very little room for growth regardless whether in the postpaid, prepaid or wireless broadband segment. In fact the monthly ARPU of postpaid is in declining mode (from RM140.2 in 2006 to RM112.3 in 2008) whereas the prepaid and wireless are not growing at all (have I told you Maxis’s wireless broadband sucks big time?). Maxis’s latest sexy offering is of course the exclusive partnership with Apple Inc.’s (Nasdaq: AAPL, stock) iPhone via 3G. Seriously without iPhone 3G which is gaining momentum (hope they can slash the freaking high price) the IPO story is less attractive.

So, how much is Ananda Krishnan asking from the 30% public offering? The price is still very sketchy with fluctuations ranging from RM3.60 to RM6.20 a share. Some analysts predicted RM5.40 per share justifying the Maxis brand may commands 18-multiples (compared to DIGI.com’s 16-multiples) of financial-year-2009’s 30 sen EPS (earnings per share) hence raising RM40.5 billion to Ananda Krishnan and his shareholders. However I would think such valuation is too high considering the current telco market scenario but then with retailers fighting tooth and nail for the freaking pathetic limited 2.33% shares allocated, the risk of under-subscription is almost none. Furthermore the promise of dividend payout of 75% of earnings is sufficient to attract investors.

We’re still not sure the main reason tycoon Ananda Krishnan decided to re-list his crown jewel. Maybe he was asked to perform national service in exchange for some attractive propositions. Maybe he needs to unload and the RM40.5 bilion (based on IPO price of RM5.40) is a lot of money for him to re-allocate elsewhere. Maybe he couldn’t find any other oversea markets attractive enough to unlock his Maxis due to current economy climate. Maybe the counter-offer from Najib’s administration was too attractive to reject. Maybe he’s more confident with Najib’s administration since his close buddy former PM Mahathir is behind the scene advising Najib. Heck, for all you know maybe he knows something about Maxis potential that it would be stupid not to unload now *grin*.

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Malaysia F-1, Made-in-Malaysia or Made-for-Cronies?

2009-09-22T00:20:00.003+08:00

Remember how Janet Jackson’s right breast was exposed during the halftime show at the Super Bowl - more than five years ago? Some 72,000 fans in Reliant Stadium and more than 100 million watching around the world got more than what they expected to see when Justin Timberlake who was singing “I’ll get you naked by the end of this song” when he ripped off Janet’s top, exposing her bare breast – the nipple covered by a metal “solar”medallion. Of course Justin claimed it was an accident and blamed it on “wardrobe malfunction”. But if you were to talk to anyone back then, nobody would believe it was “unintentional” but rather part of a stunt simply because it’s quite unusual for anyone to put a star on the breast for personal or private viewing *grin*.

Now that the ruling government’s most hated blogger RPK has exposed copies of 18-page memorandum submitted by Finance Ministry to the cabinet seeking endorsement for RM4.6 billion government loan to cover the cost over-run of the PKFZ project, Najib’s administration cannot deny anymore that it didn’t know anything about the scandal and hope to sacrifice former Transport Minister Chan Kong Choy and a few more small fishes – if that was the intention in the first place. The immediate reaction from Najib to punish those who leaked the Cabinet documents (under the name of Official Secreat Act, OSA) was sufficient to confirm that the government knew about the scandal since day one. Unlike Janet Jackson’s NippleGate, there’s no twinkle-twinkle little star to cover Najib’s administration breast.

The ruling government tried to block RPK’s Malaysia-Today website but they knew better than anyone that it was a fruitless effort. Hence Najib’s cousin, Home Minister Hishammuddin changed the strategy and is tracking the identity of the “insider” who passed the documents to RPK. Now you know why Tiong King Sing wasn’t disturb a bit with Ong Tee Kiat’s action to expose the PKFZ scandal. Tiong knew nobody will be prosecuted because the stake was too high. If he were to be brought down, he’ll make sure he’ll bring along Transport Ministers, Finance Ministers and many of Najib’s administration top officials to become his cell-mates *grin*. Although this is a golden opportunity for Najib to prove to the voters that he’s a greater leader than Mahathir in fighting corruption, he couldn’t afford to shake the already sinking ship he’s commanding. Thus he would try his very best to cover or divert the attention from the PKFZ scandal.

Najib’s only silver bullet now is to perform exceptionally in the economy sector. He knew voters especially the Chinese voters were throwing their votes behind his advisor, former PM Mahathir, despite the dictatorship and numerous scandals because Mahathir did well in driving the country’s economy. Besides economy agendas, he also needs to do branding so that people can remember him for something he did. The mention of Mahathir and you’ll immediately think of Proton, KLCC, Cyberjaya, Putrajaya and others. Thus, Najib needs an icon associate with him. Nope, he can’t glorify the Scorpene submarine because that would bring back the bad memory of Altantuya. Neither can he imitate his predecessor Abdullah Badawi in “Corridoring”. So far he has not find anything as gigantic as KLCC or Corridors but he’s learning fast and still accepting ideas.

His recent idea for Malaysia to have its own 1Malaysia F1 team in Formula One next year was indeed a very brave (and risky) and raised many eyebrows. Leveraging on Proton-owned Lotus-powered racing team the initiative would be better than sending a space tourist into space if the team could give giants like Ferrari and McLaren-Mercedes a run for their monies. The team will be a partnership between the government and private sectors especially AirAsia Berhad’s (KLSE: AIRASIA, stock-code 5099) and Naza Group. Nobody can deny the fact that Formula-1 is indeed one of the greatest platforms in advertising and marketing and if this latest stunt by Najib works it would move his rating several notches up, not to mention that it would put Malaysia on the world map once again *ahem*.

Of course the joke of the town was that it would do peoples’ favor if Proton or Lotus could at least fix the legendary window-problem first before try to take on the Formula-1. Many also sarcastically hope the 1Malaysia F1 team drivers (whoever that is) could drive faster that Formula 1’s safety car *grin*. But was Najib’s plan a wise move since even giants like Honda and BMW have decided to quit due to extraordinary high cost? Honda and BMW’s F1-teams were spending US$398 million and US$367 million respectively in 2008 alone. The team that spent the least, Force India, was spending US$122 million in 2008 and you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to calculate how much the 1Malaysia F1 team would be spending.

You can argue that the expenditure is the problem of the private sector, in this case AirAsia and Naza Group. But why would smart peoples like AirAsia and Naza decided to waste hundreds of millions of dollars in a project such as Formula-1? Wait a minute, AirAsia Kamaruddin mentioned the company is spending only £10 million (RM57 million) initially so it seems Proton or the government (public’s money) will be spending huge amount of monies for this project. Have they forgotten the disastrous experience and humiliation experienced by the country in 2001? It took the main sponsor Magnum three F-1 races before the lottery company threw in the towel, sending the then Malaysian F-1 driver, Alex Yoong, to drive A-1 instead.

Sure, Alex Yoong was the wrong candidate to drive in Formula-1 (is he coming back again?). He was there because of this father’s close connection with the then Mahathir’s administration. But since then do we have the local quality to drive such a powerful racing car? Will we try the same path as Alex Yoong again and in the process send Malaysia’s team to the bottom of the chart? Maybe they’ve shortlisted daredevil “Mat Rempits” as the future heroes. Otherwise it is misleading to declare that the F-1 car will be designed, manufactured, tested and basically everything is “Made-in-Malaysia”. Lotus may have the experience in the Formula-1 arena but its last F-1 face was in 1994, more than a decade ago. So was this project a genuine one or it’s another project to enable political cronies to dry up the country’s money?

As for advertising it wouldn’t do AirAsia or Naza any favor if the team continuously fails to finish the race, let alone winning. It’s a known fact that the Formula-1 via FIA is desperate for participants especially after the giants Honda and BMW decided to leave the race. Hence, it was speculated that the bar has been lowered to new participants. Nevertheless, Najib’s administration has to be transparent in disclosing the spending of public’s money in this Formula-1 project because it’s nobody will believe the government and Proton will not be spending a single cent in such a high-profile project. But one thing is for sure – if this project fails, you can be assured that some companies (or rather cronies) have made hundreds of millions in the process. One has to remember the ruling government is flush with monies because it’s holding back the money for development in developed states captured by the opposition especially Selangor and Penang.

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Unloaded AAPL with 200% Profit

2009-09-17T01:35:00.002+08:00

It's been many moons since I last publish my profit. It's definitely not easy to score 3-digits percentage profit and with the expiration about two days away, AAPL has been kind to me. The stock jumped a whopping $7 bucks a share prompting me to unload with profit well above 200%. With Dow Jones approaching 10,000 and Apple breaching $180 a share there's no reason I shouldn't dump it, not that I've any option since the expiration is two days away.

MCA’s Leadership to Change - minus a Ministry?

2009-09-07T13:33:00.003+08:00

Corruption and racial politics are two main top ala-cartes on the ruling government’s menu headed by UMNO. These two authentic cuisines are so delicious that after 52-year of independence they (corruption and racial politics) are still being practiced by the ruling BN government. Just like in the stock market whereby the stock prices are determined by sellers and buyers, the corrupt and racist BN can still survive simply because the voters strangely endorse such culture. It’s true that you can’t put the blame entirely on the ruling BN government for the massive corruptions and the politics of racism. Hey, if there’s no demand then there should be no supply, literally, so blame the voters.

Of course one can argue that the people were to scare to voice their dissatisfaction after the “May 13, 1969” racial riots that killed many innocent people. Malaysia is a great country not too much because she is disaster-free but because this country seems to enjoy endless refill of wealth. The discovery of oil led to the formation of Petronas in 1974 of which the actual accounting remains the greatest government secret till today. Coupled with other natural resources the country is so cash-rich that it would be impossible for the ruling government not to plunder the wealth. Of course the standard modus operandi to do so is to jack-up many times the original cost of projects. Hence the name of the game is to create many gigantic projects, never mind it’ll become white elephants.

Along the years there were many scandals but nothing beats the controversial PKFZ (Port Klang Free Zone) scandal which looks to balloon to RM12.453 billion from the original RM1.957 billion in another two years if the government still drags its feet. But the project was designed in such that the politicians involved especially KDSB (Kuala Dimensi Sdb Bhd) was given a blank-cheque. Basically the idea was to ensure PKA (government’s Port Klang Authority) becomes rubber-stamp and additional costs over-run are being billed until it balloon to as much as possible. The project has made KDSB’s boss Tiong King Sing very very rich indeed. But he has many other “political friends” to thank for the smooth sailing amongst them Ting Chew Peh, Yap Pian Hon, Chor Chee Heung and not forgetiing former Transport Ministers Ling Liong Sik and Chan Kong Choy.
However the tycoon who is also the BN backbenchers’ chief received a rude shock when MCA newly elected president, Ong Tee Kiat, made public the audit findings by PricewaterhouseCoopers about irregularities on PKFZ project. The delay in the release of the findings initially however suggested that Ong Tee Kiat was under political pressure from his master, UMNO, to sweep the scandal under the carpet. But since the Mar 2008 general election, the ruling government cannot ignore peoples’ voice in totality whatmore with Ong’s promise to reveal all about the project, just before he becomes the president of MCA. Ong Tee Kiat also may think that it would be wise for him not to cover the scandal, not that he could in the first place, considering he’s still relatively “clean” compared to his predecessors Chan Kong Choy and Ling Liong Sik.

Politically, Ong Tee Kiat’s base is still quite weak compared to his rival Chua Soi Lek thus naturally he made the right move to project himself as the least tainted MCA president. But in the process he has offended the billionaire Tiong King Sing and many other politicians who received kickbacks for closing both eyes on the PKFZ project. Suddenly he was surrounded by tons of corrupt politicians who would like to see him vanish from the political arena. As much as Najib’s administration would like to see the scandal sweep under the carpet (again) Ong Tee Kiat may offered the PM the only solution to attract the Chinese votes it losts, or at least in maintaining what MCA has left from the Mar 2009 election’s slaughter – transparency and political will to fight corruption.

Even though Ong Tee Kiat may have made the wrong political move by sacking the “sex-actor”, deputy Chua Soi Lek, the fact remains that Najib likes Chua Soi Lek more than Ong Tee Kiat for obvious reason – both of them take care of their women well *grin*. Seriously, Najib prefers Chua Soi Lek because both of them speak the “same language” and share the “same channel”. Chua is definitely a “yes-man” to Najib’s UMNO but the same cannot be said about Ong. If not because of the changes in the political landscape Ong Tee Kiat would have been “ordered by UMNO” to vacate his president seat for violating BN’s code of conduct – exposing ruling government’s scandal publicly thus embarrassing the premier. Now political analysts are predicting that both Ong and Chua may shake hands, hug and kiss each others and start packing their stuffs together.

What better option than to have young and obedient chaps such as Health Minister Liow Tiong Lai and Deputy Education Minister Wee Ka Siong to become the new president and deputy president of MCA knowing well that both are guaranteed to “kow-tow” to their political master UMNO? The fact that Ong Tee Kiat was grilled twice by the Anti-Corruption Agency on allegation by Tiong King Sing that the former took free ride using his private jet and accepted RM10 million in donation clearly shows that Ong Tee Kiat’s tenure in MCA may not last long. Heck, which political parties within the ruling BN government never accept donations before? Short of freezing RM140 million of Kuala Dimensi funds which is chicken-feed to Tiong King Sing, the tycoon is still untouchable. The battle here is about who has the deepest pocket and there’s no prize for guessing who will win ultimately. It was hope that once Ong Tee Kiat is out of MCA the PKFZ scandal may be forgotten - forever.

That’s why the “cow head” incident was orchestrated – as the backup plan to divert PKFZ scandal and MCA crisis from the public. The main objective for such racial tactic (cow is considered sacred to the Indians) was of course to create havoc to the opposition who is governing the Selangor State. The fact that Najib’s cousin, Home Minister Hishammuddin, was biased and very protective of the “cow head” demonstrators was disturbing although the UMNO’s plan would be perfect if it could excite some Indians to the streets. Government’s demand for the video on the “cow head” protest to be removed from MalaysiaKini also shows attempt to cover-up the disgusting provocation allegedly involving UMNO leaders. If it was true that the “cow head” protest involved members from PKR, PAS and UMNO as alleged by the Home Minister then by all means put all of them under ISA or at least interrogate them. The ruling government is embarking on a full-scale of destructions and chaos to the states controlled by the opposition – the next is no doubt Selangor after Perak was captured.

There’s of course speculation that after Ong and Chua’s episode is over, MCA’s current ministerships may be reduced by one in the next Cabinet reschuffle. UMNO will take the opportunity and may argue that since MCA is weak it’s justifiable to relocate the minister position (Transport Ministry?) to stronger component party from the East (Sabah or Sarawak?). But nobody really cares if this is true because the Chinese voters have given up hope on MCA. However if Najib’s administration were to proceed with this hair-cut during such sensitive period it only goes to give the opposition especially DAP free bullets to attract the remaining Chinese votes currently attached to MCA. The idea of MCA pulling out from BN is laughable at this moment simply because the cake still has delicious icing on top of it. It would be fun to watch Chua Jui Meng gives Ong Tee Kiat a good hug and say “Welcome aboard Mr. former President. Now I’m the senior and you’re the junior here”.

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September – the month of Ghost Investing

2009-09-02T16:20:00.003+08:00

Besides studying the fundamental and technical analysis of stocks there’re many other things you need to be aware of. One of these is the history of the stock markets itself. Too bad if you hate history but I found history to be very interesting although I’ve to admit I scored my history papers by memorizing the facts. Yes, history is about facts although there’re many politicians who are trying to re-write the history even from primary schools’ text-books – to ensure their individual’s survival based on racial cards. We learn from history and because of history we may not see another world war (hopefully) again, at least we’ve the will to prevent it because the Hiroshima and Nagasaki’s destructions were enough to spook us.

The month of September started with a bang – Dow Jones and Nasdaq went down the drain plunging 185.68 and 40.17 points respectively or 2 percent each. In fact, since 1929’s Great Depression September has been the worst single month in the history of U.S. stocks. With September and October traditionally being two worst months of the year, you should find this as an excuse not to enter the stock markets. Who can forget the Sept 11th terrorist attacks that left many stock punters flabbergasted? On Sept 2007 we saw queues of panic customers withdrawing their monies from Northern Rock while Sept 2008 witnessed the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the rest is, well, history.

To the Chinese it’s the seventh month in the lunar calendar where all the souls from the “underworld” are coming to pay us visits *grin* - the Ghost Festival. And these ghosts do visit stock markets, mind you. So while you’re busy glueing yourself to the display board at the stock gallery, remember to leave some seats to these “brothers or sisters”, will ya? Heck, I was joking and you should not adopt investing by the calendar. Take it with a pinch of salt although it’s wise not to put all your monies on the table simply because investors are taking some of their monies off the table. This is natural after the recent rally from March to May although I think it won’t do any harm if you can spend some time monitoring the Shanghai Stock Exchange – hopefully S&P 500 is not following Shanghai’s pattern, if the Chinese stock market is indeed experiencing a huge correction.

But let’s not panic after the Dow’s overnight 25% plunge because the DJIA is still above 9,000-level. Maybe we can press the panic button only if it tumbles below this level. Furthermore recent investor sentiment survey showed 51.6% bulls, 19.8% bears and most importantly 28.6% actually expecting a correction after the recent rally. However I suppose in a market where the bull is taking its rest, rumors of more bank failures can easily send stocks players run helter-skelter. It seems investors have pulled a staggering $4.77 billion from two Cerberus hedge funds. That amounts to almost 20% of Cerberus’s total $24.3 billion in assets and although the managing director of Cerberus Capital Management LP has promptly denies the rumor that the fund has made huge losses on private equity investments in Chrysler and GMAC, the damage has been done.

Supposing the rumors were untrue and the stocks are set to rebound soon, do you dare to jump in? Where is that buy when everyone is selling and sell when everyone is buying motto of yours *grin*? Anyway watch out for the Friday’s employment report from the U.S. government – it could send another round of selling if the reading is not right.

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New Bull Run – Already Started or Another 10-Years?

2009-08-24T01:24:00.003+08:00

How long can the current rally last? That is a multi-billion-dollars question everyone would like to know. Boy! It’s not easy being either a bull or a bear. Damn the bull when the market tumbles and damn the bear when the market skyrockets. Many fundamentalists claimed they are not affected or rather they don’t care because they are long-term investors and equate themselves to Warren Buffett. The truth is you can really count with your fingers if these people are really who they claimed to be – cloning the investing strategy of the Oracle of Omaha. But these same people do not have what Buffett has and that is billions of free dollars waiting to buy into the right stocks at the right time.

They have forgotten they do not have deep pocket such as Warren Buffett yet they fantasize themselves as the great investor. Warren can make mistake, losses billions of dollars in investment and yet shareholders will still call Warren the greatest investor of all time. He can negotiate to buy ailing companies with great discount and still get very attractive dividend coupons. Most importantly he can hold for 10-year, 20-year or even forever in the name of long-term investment and nobody dares to say he would bankrupt the shareholders’ fund. But can the Warren Buffett wannabes do that?

So the next time you heard your friends or analysts talk about investing the exact same way as Warren Buffett, it’s alright to laugh at them. You can laugh even louder if they’re talking about adopting the same Buffettology in the local stock market. Why? Just go and compare the Dow Jones or S&P500 historical chart with local chart KLCI. Sure, there’re some cool local companies that are giving great annual returns without fail since 1970s which fit Warren’s profile but whether these stocks can continue to give the same returns in the next 30-years especially when the founders are long gone is the biggest question-mark, not to mention these stocks are already fully valued at the current price (and economic situation).

But the American’s economic crisis is over. The worst is over and many economists had said so. The Japan and Germany are out of the woods and Federal Reserves’ Ben Bernanke was praised for the job well done. The only problem is the, well, hundreds of thousands of jobless Yankees but given time they’ll be out of their misery soon. Have we forgotten that we’re seeing the sunshine because all these governments gave the boost of “stimulus packages” hence it’s not a genuine recovery. Hey, you shouldn’t argue on this (stimulus package) because if all the economic superpowers were doing it then it should be the right thing to do. Let’s not complicate the matter and be happy about it and heck, if need arises, there will be second, third, fourth and more stimulus packages to be introduced if this stubborn recession won’t go away.

Such is the current situation now. The fact is most of us believed we’re on a “V-shape” if not a “U-shape” recovery. What if we’re going to experience a “W-shape” recovery instead? And to make multiple-orgasms, there may be multiple “W-shape” recoveries? Wow! That would be fantastic and I bet you’ve not experience multiple-orgasms for many months, if you’ve ever tried that before in the first place *grin*. Fundamentalists do not like to see technical charts but frankly a chart could tell us many things that may happen. Just like fortune-telling we’ll only believe what we like to hear but curse the fortune-teller till kingdom come if the reverse is true. However looking at the S&P-500 P/E ratio since the last three major bull markets (1900s, 1920s and 1960s), the stock market went through a mind-boggling 20-year (2-decades) of consolidation before a great bull market began again.

Now, assuming that we’re already into the tenth year of consolidation since the bull market in 2000, we still have another ten more years before the next super bull-run. But can we actually use the chart to predict safely the prophecy of 20-year consolidation cycle on current modern days – the internet whereby you can literally buy and sell stocks at the comfort at your home and in the process create volatility? Maybe we’ve actually entered a shorter consolidation period of say, 10-year, before the next climax come. And if that’s true then we’ve actually entering the next Super Bull Market. But do you dare to bet your fortune on it? On the other hand if you’re Buffett wannabe you can place your bet now and wait for another 10, 20 or 30 years to claim the trophy *grin*.

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Get the Facts Right and You’ll Know What to Do Next

2009-08-17T17:31:00.003+08:00

Uh oh! It seems the rally got stuck in the mud. Analysts who screamed at the top of the voice that the bull is out for revenge didn’t seem to get it. You just got to filter out such analysts because they could help to burn a big hold in your pocket. At this moment most of us will probably laugh at the idea of Dow Jones going back under 8,000-point. The world’s largest stock market is building its foundation about 9,000 now so don’t make me die laughing. OK, I can’t (or rather not) imagine the possibility of such event but let’s get and agree to the current realities.

The first fact is there’re still hundreds of thousands of jobless Americans hunting for jobs, not to mention many more are not getting their usual increments. But they’re so lucky to have a job when their friends are forced to join the “part-time workers”. Compared to the previous recessions the numbers of part-timers have actually doubled. But why do you care that these bunch of people who spent more than what they earned are now literally jobless and has to beg for part-time jobs to pay their bills? Well, it’s because they would influence the U.S. economy (the next fact).

So, the second fact is Americans are not spending as crazily as pre-crisis. Logically it they are having trouble paying bills and putting foods on the table, you don’t expect them to be able to buy houses, cars and other luxuries. Reports last week is showing weaker-than-expected retail sales – America’s biggest retailer, Wal-Mart Stores Inc., is setting the trend after its earnings report that beat forecasts but sales from new stores fell during the quarter. Other retailers are expected to follow the same readings.

While it’s true that the blame on weaker retail sales should be put on jobless Americans, the weaker consumer confidence from existing “full-time” employees who are not spending as much as before is putting the U.S. market on the radar. Not even the news that Japan, Germany and France are out of recession are enough to pacify the analysts. In fact many analysts have turned cautious and are advising people to take profit in anticipation of a major correction after the double-digit gains this year.

The third fact is while it “may” be true that the worst is over, the U.S. economy will definitely take years to recover to pre-financial-crisis level. And one of the best indicators to watch is how the global oil prices will perform, now that it had tumbled below $66 a barrel. As long as the consumer sentiment index is bearish, you can bet your last dollar that the oil prices will follow accordingly unless of course there’ll be another hurricane such as the Katrina which destroyed many oil fields. So it’s not a long-term investment strategy for the time being (yeah, try to tell that to Warren Buffett).

In reality, those who are making good money are the short-term traders who sell or buy and immediately close their positions the moment their portfolios are in the profit. Do this repetitive task and you’ll see your portfolio grows. But it’s true that it’s easier said than done because greed and fear will always come to trick your emotions. However now is the best time to train yourselves to minimize the seduction from these two evils. Nobody can tell you what to do because only you know how evil your “twin brothers” are *grin*.

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Thank Goodness the Jobs Report was Great - What Now?

2009-08-09T00:59:00.003+08:00

Not everybody dare to declare this year will be a great year despite the fact that Dow Jones Industrial Average has been sending many stock traders smiling from ear to ear. They may dare to say that the worst is over (unless huge bubble such as credit card debt burst) but still they’re not putting more than 50% of their monies into the equities for obvious reason. Like it or not the sentiments are bullish and that’s all that matter. The latest jobs report was good with job losses of only 247,000 versus 325,000 consenses while unemployment rate of 9.4% against consensus of 9.6%.

From the stock market point of view, the strength demonstrated by Dow Jones when it confidently climbed above 9,000-level and stays above it thereafter brought the relieve much sought after. You can call this the turning point or whatever you may wish to call it but to me, this is the event that triggered buying positions. But you shouldn’t put all your monies into the game, not to mention you should take profits off the table when your target has been achieved. However certain captain of the economy is not buying the bull story. At least not John Mauldin, president of Millennium Wave Investments, who isn't convinced the next bull market has already begun but would rather see companies adding jobs.

Well, John has a point because although unemployment is improving people are still without jobs. At this moment we can’t tell if the quarter million of job losses will continue to improve. What if the job losses stay stagnant (neither improving nor worsening) at a later stage? Mauldin likens today's situation to that of the bear market of the 1970s whereby the period from 1974 to 1982 was like hell – the worst may be over but the bull is still many years away. Also nobody talks about the fact that employees are earning less with lesser and lesser big time spenders. Heck, even office sex doesn’t happen as frequent as during the bullish time *grin*.

There’re also concerns about Japan’s economy – its’ debt and unemployment may trigger another round of panic selling. China is expected to surpass Japan this year as the world’s second largest economy is not doing Japan any favor either. Japan’s unemployment rate has spiked to an astonishing 5.2%, thanks to aging baby boomers – the population is expected to fall to 90 million by 2055 after peaked in 2004 at 128 million. Fortunately unlike the Westerners, Japanese have good savings hopefully be able to help them sail through the rough sea of economy uncertainties, not to mention the close family-ties which could extend the helps needed.

Nevertheless if the current bullish sentiment continues and the last lap of U.S. earnings involving retailers show strong and positive earnings, the game is not yet over and could send short-sellers scrambling to cover their positions and in the process send the stocks higher. But after weeks and months of uptrend, the time could be ripe for consolidation and this is another reason why you should take some monies off the table.

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Let the Peaceful Marchers Walk, Stop Wasting Bullets

2009-08-02T02:08:00.002+08:00

So, another round of massive demonstration and another round of horrible traffic jam within the city. The capital of Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, was actually shut-down on Friday itself. I planned to go back early on Friday after a gathering but somehow couldn’t make it and spend some good hours wasting expensive fuels, thanks to the super-efficient police force in setting up road-blocks as if a batallion Genghis Khan’s army was invading. If only the police force would do the same to catch snatch thieves, murderers or at least the mat rempits. I bet people would applause to watch FRU sending their tear-gas and spraying acid rain to mat rempits, no?

PM Najib Razak was super quiet during the massive “Bersih” demonstration - happened early Nov 2007 when his predecessor Abdullah Badawi was in office. Heck, who can forget those days when Badawi’s administration was laughed and joked at for having an Information Minister such as Zainuddin Maidin, who took offence by Al-Jazeera? But now that Najib Razak has taken office he has to face the same massive demonstration, estimated to be between 50,000 to 100,000 people who took part in various parts of the city. Unlike Badawi who wasn’t prepare for such scale of voluntary demonstrators, Najib with the help from his cousin, Home Minister Hishammuddin Hussein, is well prepared this time around.

The rally by “Bersih” succeeded in penetrating (or rather tricked) the police and intelligence unit during Badawi’s administration but today’s (Saturday) rally was not able to deliver their memo to the palace. But this was expected because it would be a slap on the face of Najib, not to mention his administration would look really silly and stupid, if today’s demonstration was successful. In reality, the PAS has shown its strength – it could mobilize its’ “troops” without paying a single cent while Najib’s friendly “pro-ISA” was a letdown. Of course you don’t expect Najib’s UMNO party could order even 1% of its so-called 3 million members to show their muscles without giving away “allowances”, do you?

Some may accused the demonstration had caused inconvenience especially the unbearable traffic jam but the fact is none of this would have happen if the police did not prostitute themselves to the politicians. The road-blocks were the main culprits although it was unnecessary. If only the police could stay independent and grant the organizers (both pro-ISA and anti-ISA) the permits to rally peacefully, one after another, the demonstration would have went smoothly and before you know it, it’s over. Past anti-government demonstration has proven that these people just wanted to have a peaceful walk. Instead of sending rounds of teary gas and in the process anger the people, the ruling government could try the gentle way to show that they (the ruling government) are not barbarians and respect human rights.

Mahathirism way of adopting dictatorship, oppression and suppression no longer work and is outdated. Relying on illiterate Sarawakians and Sabahans to deliver the seats in maintaining federal government is a risky business. The way police showed double-standard and cruelty to the peaceful marchers will be well-documented in the cyberspace especially blogosphere hence Najib Razak may just be the last Prime Minister from the BN coalition parties (until the next general election) if he continues to use the same old method from his predecessors. He should know better than anybody else that he can’t shut the mouth of the voters as long as internet exists. If you can oppress and suppress your own people literally you can do worse things to foreign investors.

The old chap Mahathir may be senile and thought he was the GodFather of the country and everybody should listen to him. He may still be very sentimental and proud of his past achievements but the youngsters are not only smarter and literate, they are also brainwashing their parents about the reality – who is the real corrupt-monsters. The political landscape has changed and if Najib Razak continues to have “advisors” such as Nazri and Hishammuddin, his mentor Mahathir may be still be alive to see his UMNO Baru dies before Mahathir himself. That would not be such a bad scenario though. Just let the peaceful marchers walk on the street. It’s a good exercise to reduce their fats. If this had happened in other countries such as South Korea, USA or European countries, the police would have been kicked, spitted and probably slapped for their brutality. Thank God the demonstrators have been extremely peaceful so far.

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Maxis is Coming (back) to Town but are Investors Excited?

2009-07-26T23:40:00.003+08:00

More than two years ago Ananda Krishnan, a self-made billionaire who controls Maxis Communications, Tanjong Plc, Measat and Astro dropped the bombshell to take Maxis private and almost instantly raised eyebrows of millions of investors. Many Maxis investors back then was furious with the privatization plan simply because it disrupted their long-term investment plan – good dividend from a good organic-growing and well-managed telecommunication company. Ananda offered RM15.60 per share (inclusive of RM0.30 per share dividend) for all the minority shareholders, a 20% premium to the last-traded price of RM13.00 a share before the announcement to take the company off the stock exchange.

The 71-year-old media mogul is also reportedly toying with the plan to buy English football club Newcastle United for £80 million, a deal represents loose change to the tycoon. Ananda, whose family originates from Jaffna, Sri Lanka, is the third wealthiest man in Southeast Asia behind Robert Kuok and Ng Teng Fong and was reported to be the wealthiest Tamil in the world. His purchased of 46% of Maxis Communications from British Telecom and AT&T for $680 million thus raising his stake to 70% must be one of his greatest business decisions to date.

When Ananda decided to take Maxis private more than two years ago, the minorities were mad because they believed Ananda shouldn’t promised them the sunshine pre-listing but after using their monies to expand the company, the minorities were told to get out. But the tycoon was said to be sulking because the stock price did not reflects the actual value of the company hence the privatization. Compared with government-controlled Telekom Malaysia (KLSE: TM, stock-code 4863) (mobile player Celcom was part of Telekom) and Telenor’s DIGI.com Berhad (KLSE: DIGI, stock-code 6947), Maxis was trade at the lowest P/E (price to earnings) ratio. But investors preferred Maxis because DIGI.com was too expensive while Telekom was too crappy *grin*.

There were also other speculations as to why the sudden exit from the local and institutional’s funds. Just like Genting Berhad, Ananda was said to be cautious with the previous Badawi’s weak and auto-pilot administration especially in the economic sector hence the next logical thing to do was to exit the listing status in order to ease his fortunes relocation elsewhere. However one cannot deny the fact that the telco market was already reaching saturation level and it was none other than DIGI.com that was the leader in “price-canabalizing” which frustrated Maxis very much then. In reality Ananda was obsessed with India and Indonesia markets so much so he can’t wait to inject these overseas’ operation with cash. But his voyage into the Indonesia (PT Natrindo Telepon Selular), India (Aircel Ltd.) and Sri Lanka’s soils were not easy particularly in India due to this Jaffna Tamil roots.

It’s interesting to read that Maxis plans to re-list again in the local Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange. But what makes everyone puzzling was the way the news was announced – the Prime Minister Najib Razak seemed very eager to get the telecommunication giant listed once again. You may see it as an endorsement to Maxis’s intention to list and in the process scoop the public monies but what about its’ foreign operations? Maxis commanded about RM40 billion in market capitalization before delisting from KLSE and that’s a lot of money. But why relist now when Maxis was adamant to pull out two years ago? Could there be an agreement between Maxis and the Malaysian government to create a win-win solution?

Maxis may be a darling company but Ananda has learnt that it’s still a long journey to make it big in India’s market. Maxis plans to invest $5 billion more in its Indian joint venture, 75% stake in Aircel Ltd., to expand the mobile service provider's network after spending $5 billion for the current fiscal year ending Mar 31. With the ambition to offer 3G in India, Maxis’s needs huge amount of money and every billions of dollars count so where else do you farm for money if not Malaysians? Competition is tough in India – while Maxis was trying to establish its foot-print, player such as Bharti is already talking about a merger of its India’s Airtel and South Africa’a MTN (largest cell-phone operator in Africa), creating world’s third largest telco in terms of subscribers. Bharti Airtel and competitor Reliance Communications have been cutting each other’s throat in their fierce fight for subscribers.

Most Indians who can afford cell phones have already signed up with Airtel, Reliance or other rivals but with the cheapest rates in the world, the fight is for the rural customers. But to build new towers just to win customers who may generate $10 a month in revenues is a tough battle for big boy like Airtel who has about 100 million Indian customers, what more to new comer such as Maxis Communications. In order to survive the harsh environment especially in the 3G market naturally Maxis has to turn back once again to Malaysian investors for funds – lots of it.

On the other hand, PM Najib was having tough time convincing foreign investors to park their hot money in Malaysia despite the much trumpeted 30% stake abolishment (certain sectors only) in mandatory Bumiputra stake. But most foreign investors are adopting wait-and-see attitude towards the latest news due to the frequent flip-flop in government policies. Najib’s mentor, former PM Mahathir, didn’t help the situation when he once again played the racial card claiming that the Malays (or rather UMNO?) are still very far away from owning the targeted stake and the Chinese was the actual master in Malaysia. But youngsters and the educated ones know Mahathir’s comment was obsolete but such comment was enough to convince foreign investors that UMNO-led government is still very risky a governement to trust, at least for the time being.

Thus, the story to get Maxis to be re-listed by Najib was a clever way to attract foreign or institutional funds. Nevertheless assuming that it was true that Maxis is to be re-listed end of the year 2009, will the investors equally excited about the story, the same way Maxis was listed in 2002 with the IPO price of RM4.85 (institutional) and RM4.36 (retail) a share respectively? Obviously Maxis cannot demand the same valuation for the listing since the risk factors have increased since then. But barring any sudden tumble in Dow Jones now is perhaps the best time to test the water with Maxis relisting story. So far, local IPOs have been very disappointed and Maxis may be the only candidate to reverse that. Again, another party to benefit from Maxis relisting (end of the year) is definitely PM Najib’s own brother, Nazir Razak, because the underwriter for such a massive IPO (speculated in Oct 2009) is none other than CIMB Investment Bank.

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Short Videos from TVB that You May Have Missed

2009-07-24T23:09:00.004+08:00

Someone forwarded the link to below video published on YouTube some months ago. I'm not sure if you've missed this but I sure did. It seemed the Mar 2008 general election caught the attention of Hong Kong TVB as well but for obvious reason you won't be able to watch it even though you subscribed to Astro. Fortunately there was English subtitle included.

Now I bet you would like to welcome Badawi back as PM

2009-07-18T00:24:00.003+08:00

Someone commented that I should shut-up and give Najib’s administration an opportunity to perform hence I shouldn’t be so negative about the current ruling government. Maybe this guy/gal did not have the opportunity to visit the infamous MACC (Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission) office and tasted a cup of their aroma coffee. I wonder if this smart fellow would sing the same song of praise for Najib if he was humiliated, his/her loved ones threaten, made to stand for four hours and numerous other interrogation techniques used by MACC. That’s right – Najib’s 100-days were full of promises *applause* but thereafter (post 100-days) scored the first death in the hand of MACC.

All of a sudden the whole episode made you think if MACC consists of thugs, the same league as the Royal Police force. Maybe both MACC and the Police are racing against time to show who is the best in their interrogation techniques; hoping to win applauses from Najib’s administration. But wait, I shouldn’t be so negative because it was not Najib’s fault that MACC used such technique and in the process caused the death of a soon to be father (political secretary to a Selangor state executive councilor) Teoh Beng Hock. It wasn’t Najib’s fault in the first place that such stupid MACC officers were recruited. But a baby is set to arrive to this world without a daddy and that’s sad. To tell the baby later that his/her father was threatened and “accidently” murdered by a bunch of supposedly anti-corruption officers is beyond words.

Suddenly you may think and hoped that Abdullah Badawi was still the Prime Minister. Sure, he slept on the job but at least he did that openly and never hides about it. But now you’ve a new Prime Minister whose policy amongst others encourage and adopt dangerous intimidation and interrogation style that could cause deaths. Which would you prefer – a boring or a hellish administration? In reality there was no death under Abdullah Badawi’s administration (under anti-corruption) but now the country is entering an era where one’s life is so cheap that throwing you out of the window is like throwing a piece of tissue paper *gulp*. Perhaps those morons who still think Najib’s administration is still finger-licking good should tell that to the face of Teoh Beng Hock’s fiancée, 28-year-old teacher Soh Cher Wei who was two-months pregnant.

To deny the fact that the current MACC is mirroring the thuggish police and has nothing to do with Najib’s administration is an under-statement. The fact that Najib’s administration was quick to warn everyone not to link the death (Teoh Beng Hock) to MACC was sufficient to show that the current intimidation, threat and physical torture policy of the current government is set to continue and most likely flourish, whether you like it or not. The ball is now in Najib’s court. You don’t think MACC’s latest action in targeting the opposition parties was done without the endorsement of Najib’s administration, do you? If you still think Najib’s administration is as clean as babies’ diaper *yuck* then you’re a moron, stupid and deserve to be rape by the current government.

Unless Najib give instruction in bringing the real culprit(s) to face the music the perception of the public will remains the same – Najib’s administration is involving in the murder of innocent citizen. But knowing how the ruling government works, this murder case will be stamped with “No Further Action” and everything will be business as usual until the next unfortunate person experiences the Malaysian style’s bungee-jump again. Najib has to do the right thing and that is to come clean with the murderer, there’s no two ways about it. And to the oppositions who cries for Royal Commission – please shut up because it has been proven many times that Royal Commission is another toothless and powerless get-together-and-have-coffee session. There’s nothing special with that “Royal” word anymore. If Badawi is still around maybe this poor chap will not die so cheap but then both Badawi and Najib are still the same product coming from the same factory *sigh*.

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BN is set to win Big, so buy political-linked stocks

2009-07-16T23:12:00.002+08:00

Going by the rate on how Pakatan Rakyat is progressing since they unexpectedly upset the ruling government Barisan Nasional in the general election, chances are high that it’s game over for the Pakatan. It may be true that a “new wave” is set to sweep the nation under the leadership of PM Najib Razak, at least the result from the just-concluded Manek Urai by-election shows so. Najib’s 100-days in the office slogan and policies are working and it seems the youngsters are impressed with a prime minister who doesn’t sleep on the job. At minimum retail stock traders are extremely pleased that the local stock market was and is performing despite the ups-and-downs on the Dow Jones’ trading floor.

Opposition party PAS may have won the Manek Urai by-election with very much reduced majority and is free to point their fingers at free-flow of RM500 per vote practiced by Barisan Nasional during the by-election. They can claim Najib’s administration is playing dirty but hey, since when did BN play clean? PAS and Pakatan have nobody to blame but themselves. PAS members were the one who voted the so-called moles or traitors (president and deputy president) who have been causing the split in the party now. Najib didn’t sweat much in giving Pakatan the headache in losing the peoples’ support. Already the PAS and DAP have started their own civil war and canabalizing each other, much to the delight of Najib’s administration.

People’s are frustrated hence the message from the Manek Urai by-election. Frankly you don’t have to be a brain surgeon to predict that BN will win back it’s two-third majority come next general election should PAS, DAP and PKR continue with their current childish game. In reality PKR, PAS and DAP are still novice and couldn’t match the cunning BN in terms of dirty politics, what more with all the supports from military, police, election commission, anti-corruption agency and whatnot. Yet PKR, DAP and PAS thought they’re invincible and still fantasizing they would form the federal government come next general election.

Ruling government was openly giving away free money for votes. Police was used to frustrate opposition supporters. Election commission was creative enough to dump ballot boxes that contained votes not in favor of BN into the sea. Now, even anti-corruption agency is used to intimidate opposition parties to the extent that an exco’s political secretary (Teo Beng Hock) could mysteriously plunged to his death from the anti-corruption agency building. Instantly Minister in the Prime Ministers Department Nazri Aziz cautions anyone against pointing their finger at the death. Heck, you put a non-suspect into interrogation process right into midnight until 4:00am and suddenly this “witness” was found death and you have the cheek to threaten anyone against suspecting foul-play?

Sure, maybe this witness who was supposed to be married tomorrow suddenly found the urge to commit suicide because he was on ecstacy so it’s not MACC’s (Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission) fault that he chose to perform the stunt from the HQ’s building. But then who can do anything to the MACC who is immortal and untouchable? They’re at the instruction of those who walk the corridors of power. And you’ve these small kids (PKR, DAP and PAS) fighting over small matters and trying to show off their new-found powers. Maybe it’s destiny that BN will rule this land for another 50-years after all. So cheer up and open your arms to welcome the hike in transportation fees and soon many more hikes.

So, what are you waiting for? Start grabbing all those political-linked stocks *grin* because the BN will win big in the next general election. It’s impossible to imagine BN will hand-over their power to the opposition without a fight, assuming that the opposition may win miraculously. There’re just too much to lose for the BN to give-up their key to the nation’s coffer.

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Najib’s 100th Day – New Promises? Just Shut-Up, Please

2009-07-12T00:23:00.002+08:00

President Obama shot down the idea of a second stimulus package, something which many had speculated thanks to the suckers’ rally that has lost its steam, clarifying that the first stimulus should be given time to show its effect. Obama urged Americans to be patient as his economic recovery plan was designed to work over two years *gulp*, not four months. Unfortunately more than two million jobs have lost and Americans continue to suffer. Naturally the Republicans took the opportunity to criticize the president and said the first stimulus has theoretically taken US$10,000 away from every American household to bailout companies but in return Americans do not feel a dollar richer.

During such critical stage, Obama did the right thing by setting the right expectation in explaining to the voters that the economy will not get any better soon, at least not within two years. If the president needs to maintain the trust of Americans, he has no other choice but to tell the truth. The earnings season which will kicks into high gear next week will be the immediate yardstick in measuring the health of American companies since the first stimulus package. You don’t make empty promises you can’t deliver especially if you’re the President of the United States of America. Time will tell if Americans will handover another four years to Obama after his first term.

Former Malaysia Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi learned the hard way when he over-promised the voters and as a result lost heavily in the Mar 2008 general election. Badawi was further humiliated when he was forced out of the office by none other than his own deputy, Najib Razak, who today made a series of “sweet” promises in conjunction with his 100th day as Prime Minister. As anticipated all the government-controlled newspapers sing the song of praises to Najib and all the ministers did the standard operating procedures (SOP) – Najib is the best and Najib is the greatest hero since the creation of Superman *yawn*.

Najib announced that road users will enjoy 20% discount if they pay toll more than 80 times per month. Whoa! This is indeed the greatest mankind invention since bread and compass. It beats me why only motorists who pay more than 80 times per month will enjoy the pathetic 20% discount when in fact the parasite concessionaires who are sucking the average-Joes money everyday due to extremely lopsided agreement should be stopped since the first day Najib took office. Of course we know that these concessionaires are actually the right-pocket of Najib’s administration (UMNO) so to buy over the roads actually means to slaughter the goose that lays golden eggs. Coincidently according to a poll by Merdeka Center, Najib’s popularity has skyrocketed to 65% from a mere 42% just before he became the country’s sixth prime minister.

Let’s give him the benefit of doubt and his approval rating has indeed climbed to 65% currently. No doubt he’s a better prime minister than his successor Abdullah Badawi. Opposition parties PKR-DAP-PAS should take this seriously and work doubly hard to ensure continuous support from the voters. Already the people have seen the benefits of having a strong opposition to check and balance the corrupt ruling government. But could the 65% approval rating was due to the fact that the poll was carried on fence-sitters who naturally gave the thumbs-up compared to Abdullah Badawi who slept on the job most of the time? Even Najib’s mentor, Mahathir, admitted the prime minister scored some points because he (Najib) doesn’t sleep on the job *grin*. Perhaps Najib should call for a state-level election for Perak as his 65% populatiry could now translate into a sure-win election.

Najib also promised he would improve crime problem and combat corruption *yawn again*. Maybe the prime minister was trying to insult the peoples’ intelligence once again. If he was serious about tackling the crime problem, the least he can do was to get rid of the current Inspector General of Police and appoint another person who can dedicate his or her time in crime prevention. We don’t need a police chief who would not think twice about assaulting the public over wearing black shirts or pulling a supposedly respected House Speaker as if he (Speaker) was a dog. The IGP must be made to understand that he survives on taxpayers’ money and not the prime minister’s money. If Najib was serious about combating corruption, maybe he should put former transport minister Ling Liong Sik and Chan Kong Choy on trial over PKFZ RM12 billion’s scandal. If my neighbor’s dog could smell something fishy about these two former transport minister, certainly a prime minister who enjoys 65% approval rating knows these two individuals are not angels after all.

Perhaps Najib should, for once, get the police and anti-corruption to check on Selangor former Chief Minister Khir Toyo’s claim that his controversial mansion costs only RM3.5million. If his mentor Mahathir is not convinced about Khir Toyo’s story, definitely you don’t expect us to believe him too, do you? I believe people will throw at least 80% of their support to Najib’s administration if he can show at least the political will on the issue of crime and corruption. Hence to promise quality of life, quality of education, better rural infrastructure and public transportation are not necessarily. It would be miracle if he can focus on the main problems – crime and corruption. So don’t over-promise because people are not stupid, not that they expect Najib’s 100th day of goodies is something which are achievable in the first place. We’ve enough of Barisan Nasional’s slogans thus Najib would do the people a great favor if he could just shut up.

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No 30% stake for bumiputra but are you taking the bait?

2009-07-05T23:56:00.003+08:00

I’ve just returned from a short trip to Singapore. As usual the hotels will be jacking up their rates come the Formula-1 again. Staying at 5-star (that was what my friend claimed) InterContinental Singapore at S$200 a night was a steal considering the cleaniness and spaciousness of the room. Broad-band was provided complimentary although I still can’t figure out why the hotel management could not provide a single bottle of mineral or distilled water as part of the service. Maybe they thought I can just walk to the Cold Storage which was a walking distance to get it. But I’m sure any travelers would prefer at least a bottle of distilled water that costs S$0.60 at the Cold Storage than a hand-written welcome note from the hotel management.

Anyway I found out the food in Singapore is getting better thanks to many Malaysians who travel daily (I bet many of them have actually become citizens) to work on the island. My friend took us to try some of the Singapore foods which turn out to have similar taste compared to Malaysia. After some conversations it seems many restaurant owners or their workers are Malaysians so it seemed they have taken the advice from some of Malaysian politicians (current government) to go back to China, India and wherever their father or grandfather came from, if they are not happy with the racism policy the BN government is practicing. But instead of going back to China or India as threaten by these politicians, the Malaysian Chinese have migrated to Singapore instead.

One of my friends who were having dinner with us was actually a Malaysian. He decided to accept the Singapore citizenship after much considerations and he has never look back. He’s now attached to a MNC company in Singapore and the reason he chose Singapore was the fair opportunities and better education system for his children although he missed the durians a lot. Another pure Singaporean friend was super-excited when I shared with him the latest political happenings in Malaysia although I’ve to admit he seems to know a lot about Malaysian politic – ever since the opposition parties captured the developed states previously controlled by BN government.

He even told me that Lee Kuan Yew was actually neutral with a slight preference towards the opposition parties (at least that was what he claimed) and his recent visit to Malaysia that received extraordinary welcome by Najib’s administration confirmed my theories that the grand old man was there to smell the ground or peoples’ majority support. Based on the Singapore medias writeup it was obvious that Lee Kuan Yew was ready to accept a new government should the people decide to kick Najib out of the office – that is if certain stupid PAS leaders stop hurting the partnership with DAP and act quickly enough to cut the cancerous cells from PAS such as those who seemed to have been bought over by UMNO.

If a normal Singaporean could tell me that such PAS men have been bought over to create troubles within PAS, you don’t think the latest fiasco about UMNO-PAS joint-government was a gimmick, do you? Well, maybe it was deliberately done to such scale as to warn Anwar that the prime minister office does not belong to him but the damages done was too great. And now you have the latest fiasco in Kedah. However the Singapore government has not decided whether to pump in huge money into the so-called Iskandar Development Region, not after the police blatantly pulled the Speaker out of the House. But I argued (with a grin) that Najib has just announced that business owners do not have to give away 30% stake to the bumiputra. Of course my Singaporean friend smiled back at me and said that if Malaysians are not stupid to fall into such temporary policy, surely the Singaporean are way smarter than us – to which I can’t help but laughed.

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MoonWalker Michael Jackson – worth more Dead than Alive

2009-06-27T23:05:00.004+08:00

Just like investing stocks there’s an obvious trend in the music industry. One of the simplest rules in making money investing stocks is to follow the trend. So far there’s no single individual who had deviate from the trend and make good money except the so-called long-term investment also known as contrarian investment strategy. But then you can always argue that sooner or later the stocks will always reverse and go the way you were betting. Tell that to Warren Buffett. Anyway, the trend in the music industry was that your albums and fortune will always skyrocket after you’re no longer in this world – you’re dead.

It may be laughable but people will only remember singers or artistes who die young, preferably with scandals or publicity that invites debate by millions. That was the exact reason why most of the scandals or gossips in the Hong Kong entertainment industry were deliberately created to keep the artists “alive”. In fact the Hong Kong entertainment industry was so dirty that it was a known fact that you need to sleep with the “influential” persons in order to secure jobs. And I’m not talking about Edison, Cecilia, Gillian and Bobo’s nude and sex photos scandal.

With Michael Jackson’s death, the world has indeed lost a legend and pop-star after the King Elvis Presley who died in 1977 at age 42. Both share a common similarity – their songs were in cold storage and hadn’t had a hit album in years. But Michael Jackson did something which may reverse his estimated US$500 million in debts to positive figures – he invested. Now that his estimated assets could be worth as much as US$1 billion, you’ll read many opportunists to come out to claim a stake of his financial empire. Michael Jackson’s initial investment in Beatle’s catalog which he bought for $45.7 million back in 1985 is now worth at least US$400 million alone.

But it’s unclear if his intention to return the catalog back to Paul McCartney as specified in his will will go through considering Michael had actually sold 50% of his 50% stake in the Sony/ATV music catalog which includes his own music and the Beatles’ to investment firm Fortress Investment Group (FIG). Once good buddies, Michael Jackson and Paul McCartney became instant enemy when the former outbid the latter for the rights of the Fab Four’s legendary songs. While the story goes that Michael back-stabbed Paul after Paul told Michael his intention to buy the rights to his old songs and how much the catalog would worth someday. But then Paul was stupid in refusing to offer another US$4 million premium over Jackson’s bid if he was so sure the catalog was a gold-mine, not that he has no money to bid higher at the time.

There are not many legendary like Michael Jackson that the world can produce so naturally since his death, almost instantly everyone was nostalgic and start listening to his songs and watching his videos non-stop. Michael Jackson’s music video views on YouTube skyrocketed to 10 million from the average daily 216,000 – almost 50 times increase. Whether you like it or not, Michael Jackson was a genius and when he’s on stage, he’s God (of music) and you’re basically under his spell. The world will not see another electrifying King like him for many decades to come. Heck, we may never have another like him for the rest of our live simply because he’s irreplaceable. Rest in Peace Michael. Your moonwalker is legendary.

Enjoy some of his greatest music videos …

Are you convinced the Bull was a suckers Rally?

2009-06-23T15:12:00.002+08:00

Do you need to be a certified chartist or scientist to tell what the resistance levels are for either Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) or Dow Jones Industrial Average? If you’re still clueless why the recent spike in the stock markets then go figure, will ya? The only difference between current global recession and the much compared 1929 Deep Depression was the easily available of money, lots of them. We, especially the U.S., was printing money like there’s no tomorrow. But who cares as long as there is tons of banana money floating on the street for our consumption? In a nutshell we’re living in a borrow-money in the name of stimulus packages. When the economy recovers, the government will do its best to recover these trillions of dollars in bailout money.

It’s nice to have certain governments such as the Malaysian who preferred hiding their head under the ground as if nothing happens, although they ultimately disclosed that the country’s first quarter contracted by 6.2% and the second quarter will not be any better. Don’t you hope that the PM will scream that the country will not enter recession comes rain or shine? Fortunately majority of the people were ignorant of the economy hence the crazy spending and this help the government a lot. The pumping of taxpayer money into the stock market helps the situation. All the fund managers will tell you secretly that local funds such as EPF and PNB have been aggressive net buyers and not foreigners. In fact the foreign shareholdings in the local stock market stood at the low of 20.7% - same as in 2004. A staggering RM93 billion of net outflow registered in 2008 alone.

Of course along the line you’ve some suckers analysts who tell you the worst is over and Malaysian stocks are starting “catching up”. Strangely these analysts were blowing the same trumpet again and again even during consolidation stage and after the World Bank cut its 2009 global growth forecast - the world economy will shrink by 2.9 percent and global trade is expected to plunge by 9.7 percent this year. There’re some funnier analysts who were quick to caution that the local stocks skyrocketed too much and too fast, right after the DJIA plunged. I bet your grandma or grandpa can become a better analysts than these nuts. Thus you’re seeing bloods on the trading floor today after Dow tumbled 200-points overnight, a sight quite distance to us since the spike.

U.S., unfortunately does not have the luxury of using hundreds of billions of dollars to spin their stock market because the bailouts were everywhere, so much so that President Obama thought it would be wise to avoid such issue, at least for now. It’s pretty simple really – as long as the unemployment is increasing or stagnant, it’s a sign that the economy is still in bad shape. You need consumers to start spending from condom to houses, don’t you? The simple question was – if the U.S. financial institutions were magically recovered from its cancer, why there was no rush to snap up stocks such as Citigroup, Bank of America, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo? In any bull run the financial stocks would be the first to skyrocket, no? And have you seen the global credit card losses as of today? Frankly, the last thing I wish to read is the burst in the credit-card problem because that will definitely spark the global recession Part-II, while we’re still finding the silver bullet for the Part-I.

In reality the KLCI will find it hard to breach 1,100-points, the same way DJIA will not breach the 9,000-points – at least for now. So you know when to sell or short. But you may argue that you’ve entered right after the 1,000-points (KLCI) and has since made good profit. Congratulations but now that the KLCI is approaching 1,000-points what are you going to do? Are you still holding *grin* betting that this is a temporary setback? Or are you discipline enough to unload in preparation for the worst? This is the best part because your greed and fear started to trick your judgement.

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Apple Steve Jobs’s latest gadget – a Liver Transplant

2009-06-21T01:34:00.003+08:00

Why did Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL, stock) captain, Steve Jobs, went on long leave since Jan 2009? If you run a poll, majority of the respondents will tell you that Steve was away fighing cancer while many would not think twice that Steve was actually dying from disease. Jobs, 54, disclosed in August 2004 that he had been treated for a form of pancreatic cancer. His “skeletal” appearance last year however had many worried that the charismatic co-founder of Apple Inc. could be suffering from a severe medical condition. Rumors never stop speculating about his health and the influencial Steve was even predicted to make his appearance at the recent World Wide Developers Conference – Steve Jobs failed to appear.

The rumor mill spread to Memphis, Tennessee, when a house in a swank neighborhood there has been bought for a princely sum and was undergoing minor renovations in preparation for its new resident. The buyer was said to be none other than Apple CEO Steve Jobs as he was speculated to be readied to be treated for his pancreatic cancer. Today, Wall Street Journal confirmed the 2-month-old rumor when it reported that Steve was indeed seeking treatment (in Tennessee) and actually had received a liver transplant two months ago and is recovering well. But there’re people who were rather curious why Steve took the trouble seeking treatment in Tennessee when there are many good treatment centers around his home. The answer could be that St. Jude Hospital in Memphis happens to be one of the best endocrinology centers in the world with abundance of researchers equipped to handle Steve Jobs’ health problems.

So, is this a piece of good news for Apple’s stock on Monday? As of now nobody knows because it depends on how investors would like to react to it. The stock could skyrocket now that the uncertainties are over since Steve is recuperating as reported by WSJ. Like it or not Steve is still very influential and his appearance at Apple’s office could spark a mini bull. But on the other hand there are arguments that a liver transplant is a complicated surgery as the organ is not an easy gadget such as an iPhone. If indeed it was true that Steve had a liver transplant it would take months before it can be certain that his new part is “behaving”. Nevertheless the Apple’s stock will definitely swing wildly upon opening bell on Monday.

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Najib Rosmah Sdn Bhd – LKY came with Hammer and Nails?

2009-06-16T23:48:00.003+08:00

Singapore Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew last visited Malaysia in 1989. The architect of the current modern Singapore has never step onto the soil since then, at least officially, due to obvious reason – former Malaysia Prime Minister, Mahathir, won’t allow it. And now that Najib Razak has become the sixth prime minister, Lee Kuan Yew who has close relationship with the Razak family paid a visit to the country and his visit was front-paged by all Chinese-newspapers. As expected the old dictator Mahathir wasn’t amuse with his presence and was as sarcastic as before about the visit. The fact that Lee Kuan Yew was given the welcome carpet as if he was still the Prime Minister of Singapore really anger Mahathir who still hates the senior Lee.

Lee Kuan Yew couldn’t help but to go down the ground to smell the current political sentiment ever since the arrogant and corrupt BN (Barisan Nasional, the coalition governing the country) lost heavily in the Mar 2008 general election. You don’t think this old guy came here for the local durian, do you? He may wish that his country’s intelligence didn’t possess the “evidence” linking Najib to Mongolian beauty Altantuya, if the claim that Singapore intelligence has a file on Najib was true. After all, it’s better to work with a devil that you know than a devil you don’t. In reality senior Lee would rather work with BN than the coalition of PAS-PKR-DAP. Furthermore it’s easier to tell a guy what to do by constantly whispering “I Know What You Did Last Summer”?

But the political landscape has since changed and Singapore needs to assess the situation (in Malaysia) in preparation for a sudden political change, again. The fact that Lee’s opinion after each of his visits to some states inclusive of Penang and Kelantan was given wide coverage as if he was the Prime Minister of Malaysia carries weights. Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng and the former Chief Minister (the loser) Koh Tsu Koon immediately started the blaming game after Lee commented that the Penang state infrastructure progress very little since his last visit in 1989. It’s funny that the local politicians took seriously comment by Lee Kuan Yew but did nothing when the actual taxpayer complained on the same issue.

The strangest and amazing about Lee’s visit was none other than his visit to have a four-eye talk with Najib’s wife, Rosmah. Maybe it was the satay but when it was reported that the reason he paid a separate visit to Rosmah because she and her husband worked as a team and it was necessary for him to understand both members of the team, it raised many eyebrows. On the surface it seems the country is governed by a tag-team of husband and wife – Najib and Rosmah Private Limited (or Sdn Bhd). This is laughable although has serious impact especially on the business community. The last thing investors would like to hear is their money was parked at such a risky country. Maybe Rosmah was trying to show who the actual boss was and perhaps she was wearing the “Bossini” attire during Lee’s visit to her *grin*.

Of course you can’t beat the naughty talks that Lee Kuan Yew was actually flexing his muscle now that Najib has become the most powerful person in Malaysia yet Singapore’s intelligence has sufficient, well, you know what that is, to nail the husband and wife’s balls on the public gallery. If there’s a plan to control Najib’s administration remotely from Singapore, now is perhaps the best time. And to think that Mahathir was smiling from ear to ear after he successfully removed the sleepy head Abdullah Badawi. However I bet nobody would complain if Malaysia will become as developed as Singapore under Lee’s special “advice and guidance”, minus the corruption of course. But then there would be an old man sulking till the day he rest in peace, because nobody give a damn to what he has to say after his 22-year-rule that corrupt the whole country’s administration. The senile old man will not stop and will continue to belittle “Little Emperor” Lee Kuan Yew.

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iPhone slashed to $99, Faster 3G S Model

2009-06-09T07:59:00.005+08:00

Apple Inc. slashed the entry price for an iPhone in half and lowered some laptops by $300 Monday, the company's first dramatic price cuts since the recession began a year and a half ago. Steve Jobs was not there but that was expected as you can't rely heavily on one person if the company were to survive in long-term. Apple also unvealed a new model of the iPhone - the 3G S, same look but with a faster processor, longer battery life, an internal compass, a video camera and a photo camera with better resolution and auto-focus.

A 16-gigabyte version of the 3G S will cost $199 and a 32-gigabyte version will be $299. The good news for you who would like to get your hand on the iPhone was that you can basically get an entry-level iPhone for $99 instead of $199 - the 8-gigabyte iPhone 3G (I wonder if Maxis will slash their price accordingly as that was a $100 or RM355 cheaper). Can you imagine those who bought the their first unit two years ago at $499 for a 4-gigabyte version and $599 for 8 gigs?

Nevertheless the new iPhone pricing breaks through an important barrier for consumers and will most likely move (or rather force) the rest of the smartphone players to do the same. Consumers will indeed attracted by the mouth-watering "$100 discount" and ninety-nine dollars is a psychological price point - it becomes an affordable luxury. People who wish to join the smart-phone craze will have no reason not to own one now.

For its MacBook line, Apple showed off new laptops that boast longer battery life and faster processors. The company rolled out a new 13-inch MacBook Pro that starts at $1,200, or $100 lower than an existing similar notebook, and a 15-inch Macbook Pro that starts at $1,700, $300 less than the current model. Ultra-thin MacBook Air price was also slashed to $1,500 from $1,800. Apple also announced Mac next version operating system - Snow Leopard - scheduled to be out in September ahead of Microsoft Corp.'s next edition of Windows on Oct 22. Snow Leopard now support Microsoft's Exchange Server software.

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PAS to abandon DAP and PKR - Greed or Stupidity?

2009-06-08T00:08:00.003+08:00

If there’s one distinct different between UMNO (the main “Godfather” in the ruling BN government coalition) and PAS (one of three parties in the opposition coalition), it has to be the obvious democracy that the latter is practicing. So much so that the party (PAS) does not seems to fall apart despite different opinions at the top leadership level, at least not yet. In contrast if you dare to even speak out your mind within existing BN government’s coalition, you would be very lucky if UMNO’s hidden wing didn’t whack you, either verbally or physically. But based on PAS’s just concluded election, how long could PAS stay in one piece?

The election result that saw Nasharuddin Mat Isa, re-elected as PAS's deputy president after he defeated his competitor Husam Musa (who managed 281 votes) by 199 votes was indeed a good news to Najib’s administration. Although Nasharuddin (garnered 480 votes) scored less than 50% of the total votes thanks to spoiler Mohamad Sabu (261 votes), it gave an impression that the foundation of PAS may soon crumbling down. Together with PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang, Nasharuddin now could continue with their unfinish agenda – a possible unity government with UMNO and in the process weaken the Pakatan Rakyat coalition for the next general election.

Fortunately PAS’s spritual adviser Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat is still alive and kicking. You don’t have to be a genius to guess what would happen to PAS should Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat was no longer around as he’s the “glue” that keep the party afloat and in one piece. He may be just a spiritual adviser but the party president and the newly re-elected deputy president would not dare to push their luck to the limit lest they wish to commit suicide for offending the highly respected figure. It’s not a secret that both Hadi Awang and Nasharuddin were freaking excited the moment the “unity government” with UMNO was mentioned but Nik Aziz is very well aware of the consequence in sleeping with the slutty UMNO – he did that before and has been regreted ever since.

Of all the politicians still alive, spiritual adviser Nik Aziz is perhaps the undisputed person you will respect, not because he live a simple life but he is one hell of a consistent politician. Sure, he commited the biggest mistake in his life by joining BN (Barisan Nasional) and UMNO from 1970 to 1978 but he was naïve to think that UMNO was sincere about “Malay Unity” back then. It was no secret that UMNO is a slut who will not think twice about inviting anyone home to sleep and have fun but that’s when the UMNO is weak and need the “juices” to rejuvenate its muscle. Thereafter UMNO would harass their partner and may go the extra miles in sexually abuse its partner until they quit as can be seen by PAS in the 1970s. By the time PAS decided to quit BN it was too late as the party was in broken pieces as many of its members were already split and were poisoned or seduced by money to stay on.

Nik Aziz would rather stay put with the state of Kelantan only than to sleep with UMNO again with the promise of federal ministerships. But why these two chaps (Awang Hadi and Nasharuddin) were so stupid as not to see the trap setup by UMNO? Could these two persons the moles and traitors within PAS whose task now require them to create havoc within PAS and in the process cause the Pakatan Rakyat into disarray? On one hand you have the spiritual adviser screaming until foaming at mouth that PAS will never join UMNO or consider unity government, yet on the other hand you have the president and the deputy president yelling as if a unity government with UMNO is the next greatest human invention since bread.

The idea of toying with a unity government with UMNO has created discomfort within Pakatan Rakyat itself, who called itself the government-in-waiting, especially to DAP. In reality the Pakatan Rakyat’s strength was derived from the people or rakyat’s votes that came not only from the ethnic-Malay but also the ethnic-Chinese and ethnic-Indian. It’s either all or nothing at all. It would be interesting to see how the voters will cast their votes should PAS decided to break away from the Pakatan Rakyat coalition and move into UMNO’s luxury bed. UMNO has nothing to loose but everything to gain from the differences inside the PAS and Najib is smiling at his lady luck. But what if the whole idea of a unity government from PAS’s president and his deputy was a political move aimed at the coalition’s leaders themselves.

Since the sudden victory post Mar 2008 general election, people were talking about Anwar Ibrahim being the prime-minister-in-waiting with PAS president and DAP adviser becoming the deputy prime ministers. PAS, being the most senior of the three was not amused with such speculation as they would like the top seat of prime minister for themselves. Why can’t PAS’s president becoming the prime minister and the rest two partners share the deputy prime ministers instead? Do we have to tell them especially PAS not to count the chickens before they hatch? How do they know that the stupid Malay, Chinese and Indian voters will not vote in their long-term favorite UMNO, MCA and MIC back with staggering majority at next general election? Surely if they can be so stupid for the last 50-years, there’s no formula that says they can’t be the same stupid voters again for another 50-years.

The fact that Anwar Ibrahim has distance himself from acknowledging that he will become the de-facto prime minister should Pakatan Rakyat miraculously form the next federal government (without any opposition from the BN) proved that PAS was indeed ambitious to secure the premiership and PAS could not accept that they become the second man behind PKR. It seems that Mahathir, the guru behind divide-and-rule governance, does not have to crack his head on how to apply the strategy after all on the once mighty Pakatan Rakyat (PR) - PAS did BN the favor of starting the canabalising of each other within the PR. In the name of Islam, would PAS abandon his comrades of different religion and work with UMNO who shares the same religion but tainted with not only corruption, brutality, nepotism and cronism but also cold-blooded murder? Maybe it’s all about money *grin*. Maybe money can buy all these religious teachers if not the greed for power.

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