Stocks, Sports and everything else

Oversold and ready to rally?

noreply@blogger.com (Globalcitizen) — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 08:33:51 PDT

Wow, So I have not posted for a while . Anyway this pullback has reached a level where stocks look attractive again.
It looks like we are way oversold, which means:
1. We can bounce.
2. We can rally hard.
3. We can go down less slowly .

I think its # 1 and hoping for # 2 as we near year end. Earnings have been good .
I have calls on APPL, MS, BAC etc. I would like to get some GS calls if it goes to 177 or so.
Lets see.

Posting after a long time

noreply@blogger.com (Globalcitizen) — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 07:30:08 PDT

A post after a loooong time, Markets at a crucial point. S&P500 is at 980 has been the lined in sand for many times since 1998.
So while it looks like we will back off from here , I think markets will breakout and head higher eventually.
How high that depends on the data flow. But if 980 is captured convincingly then I think we can see 1150 pretty soon.
On the downside 940 is obvious support.
A lot is being talked about China, how it is going to lead us to enormous growth. India and Brazil too but most people focus on China.
I was watching TV and one money manager said according to figures from many sources , China economy is going to be equal to US in 2027 and bigger by 2050.
So I am posting 2 articles on which says China is going to lead us out of the recession and the other argues otherwise.
Both are from minyanville.com.
1.
Why China Won't Save the Day .
2.Three Reasons Why China Will Save the Day .

Good Luck.

Pullback done?

noreply@blogger.com (Globalcitizen) — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 10:14:27 PDT

The S&P 500 pullbacked to the 200 DMA and jumped right back up. After some consolidation it is now near 920.
If it clears 920 , that will be a huge positive.
Today evening RIMM reports earnings and if they are good or lets say the market likes it, then expect S&P 950 and higher very soon.
But if not then 900 can become support which has to be held.
So right now things look good for a rally but the news has to be good.
I like AAPL and MSFT both here , the technicals look good and also BAC looks fine.
While all this is going on, Bio-techs have been rallying.
So it looks like there are lots of good stocks out there for people to buy.
But 950 has to be cleared on the S&P 500 , else it just becomes a trading range. But I do feel that the good strong stocks should do fine and not collapse even if the markets do.
Of course these days things change so fast that before you know it ahuge rally becomes a down day.
So be careful and good luck.

Markets rally yet again

noreply@blogger.com (Globalcitizen) — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 06:29:06 PDT

Over the last many weeks , the markets pullback for maximum a day and nowadays not even that, the markets falls and recover by end of day.
Some say its because fund managers , who they say have a lot of cash , are being anxious and jumping in before quarter end.
Now I am not sure if thats true or not but what is true that this market does not want to pullback.
So I am taking these guys words as a good guide.
What does that mean, that means if these managers are jumping in , then they will not stop now , as June end is Quarter end and they want to have the good performers on their books.
So I am buying here. Will look to get some AAPL and BAC too.

Natural gas analysis.

noreply@blogger.com (Globalcitizen) — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 06:13:02 PDT

Bloomberg.com has a great article on Natural gas today, here is the link.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=anGqYysKmt9k

Now you might say but are these guys right? well maybe yes maybe no.
But this is how I look at it. Jeff Cooper , one of my fav. analyst/expert likes to say "stocks do not move , they are moved ".
I do believe this and that's why I feel that as people start looking to buy Natural gas, it will stop its downtrend and start picking up slowly and steadily.
Is this a sure thing ? no way. But since we have rallied so much and natural gas has not participated , there will be many who might jump in on this and take it up.

All I do is look at the chart and make sure its looks good. I am thinking of buying UNG , which is an ETF which tracks natural gas.
There are many companies like CHK etc. but I think UNG is what I will start with.
Take a look and see if it works for you.

BTW I am looking to buy AAPL if it falls here. 120 would be perfect for me as of now, but it might not get there.

Good Luck.

Read these articles from experts.

noreply@blogger.com (Globalcitizen) — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 12:25:22 PDT

Here are some good articles on the markets/stocks.

From minyanville.com
Why Microsoft will rise again.
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/AAPL-GOOG-MSFT-ek-Windows-kodak/index/a/22880/from/ameritrade

Jeff Saut: 4 Reasons Why Being Bearish Now Is a Mistake
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/USO-VIX-spx-SPY-bull-bear/index/a/22872/from/ameritrade

Pick a Side: Hyperinflation or Deflation?
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/dollar-Fed-Credit-debt-assets-deflation/index/a/22904/from/ameritrade

Anatomy of a Losing Trade
James Kostohryz
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/VIX-spx-XLF-SP500-trading-INVESTING/index/a/22957/from/ameritrade

Is Dendreon Immune to Risk?
Smita Sadana
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/biotech-db-DNDN-JNJ-drug-provenge/index/a/22956/from/ameritrade

Markets , Momentum vs Fundamentals/Technicals

noreply@blogger.com (Globalcitizen) — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 08:56:56 PDT

One thing is clear , we need to consolidate the gains but the momentum is so strong , markets do not want to stop.
Every other day some big analysts jumps on the bandwagon saying we could go higher .
It seems for S&P 500 950 is a major obstacle. But beyond that , obviously, 1000 is a clear "magnet".
Gold seems like taking its time to get to 1000. But the more it consolidates below 1000, the better the break out imho.
We can pullback at any time but CSCO, MSFT and HPQ show good strength.
These are low beta stocks with lower volatility.
The high betas like AAPL GOOG RIMM AMZN , all show strength.
AAPL is getting good words from many many analysts I follow.Technical/Fundamental , all kinda people like it.
I will be looking at a good entry point for it.
Oil is overbought , but the weak US$ and inflation talk keeps pushing it higher.
About overbought/oversold, there is no rule the overbought cannot rise more and oversold cannot fall more.
As you have seen the market prove it recently. It just means you have to buy it carefully and keep positions smaller.

No use trying to short this strong market

noreply@blogger.com (Globalcitizen) — Wed, 27 May 2009 08:07:43 PDT

The markets want to rally, no matter what. All indications are that we can see the S&P 500 reach 940 and as much as 965.
That is where resistance is. I have heard numbers of 1000 and beyond but lets first see it cross 950-960 zone.
Momentum is high but volume is low.
So I would say do not try to short this market. If one must then have very small position sizes.
The markets can be very irrational at times. It happened to the downside now its time for the upside too I guess.
I am buying some high momentum tech and some solars. Also I have some Gold ETF's.
One thing I am also doing is keeping track of companies which had bad earnings and fell after that. Most of them are rallying now. I think once the momentum is gone , they will fall fast, just a guess.
Be careful and good luck.

Market commentary by Jeff Cooper on minyanville.com

noreply@blogger.com (Globalcitizen) — Fri, 22 May 2009 11:46:34 PDT

I have been following Cooper for quite a few years now and I know he is good. Click on the link below for the article.
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/AAPL-rimm-BIDU-uup-spx/index/a/22785

Read this article by Jeff Saut

noreply@blogger.com (Globalcitizen) — Thu, 21 May 2009 11:10:01 PDT

I found this on minyanville.com , very good .
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/dow-markets-spx-csx-theory-bottom/index/a/22769

Watch S&P 875 closely

noreply@blogger.com (Globalcitizen) — Thu, 21 May 2009 06:22:03 PDT

So the markets finally lose momentum and come down , now 880/875 area is good support and we should bounce there , at least a bit. But if that level breaks on a closing basis, its looks like the next support is way below .
Now it might not go to 875 in a hurry, first support is of course 900. But the sooner it goes there the better the bounce imho.
The semi's ( etf- SMH ) have been looking strong , but if they fall on heavy volume , that will be not good for TECH in general.
Good Luck.

Looks like markets will fall more

noreply@blogger.com (Globalcitizen) — Sun, 17 May 2009 13:20:16 PDT

Looks like the markets will fall more before any more rallies, it is the nature of the fall and the rise after that, that will determine the strength of this market.
Read what an economist, not just an ordinary one, has to say .

Markets at key levels.

noreply@blogger.com (Globalcitizen) — Thu, 14 May 2009 12:00:22 PDT

The markets have pulled back. Some will say they are consolidating , some will say this is the start of another huge fall.
The volume on the pullback has been average to above average, in tech it has been heavy.
Today's rally is on low volume so far.
The semiconductors, which acc. to many are a key sector, have broken important support levels.
Tomorrow is also options expiration and that means next week we can see further pullbacks.
I have puts on QQQQ and also have some SKF and FAZ stocks, all bearish positions.
I have very few positions though, if this is a real pullback and we run off to new highs , then my tight stops will get me out and I will buy some stuff.

But as of now everything looks like it wants to go down before going up.

Subprime was an isolated incidence right?

noreply@blogger.com (Globalcitizen) — Sat, 09 May 2009 13:56:36 PDT

Forgot to mention that the guys running the stress tests are the same who said, on many occasions, that sub-prime was an isolated incidence.
Now they say the banks look great and also the economy is going to be perfect come year end.
This is from those who never thought we had any problem in the first place.
Yeah ! that's a good reason to trust these Einstein's.
The way I look at it: Earnings estimates were down so much so fast that this quarter companies beat them rather easily.
But lets see what happens over a period of time. Not the next quarter but next few quarters.
Lets see if these banks make some real money not borrowed money from taxpayers.

I want to see the economy on a firm footing, then we will be out of the woods.
When something falls 50% , then it takes a 100% rally to get back to break even.
Just keep that in mind.

Stress Tests look like what someone called them , good PR

noreply@blogger.com (Globalcitizen) — Sat, 09 May 2009 11:02:18 PDT

These bank stress tests are being called reliable by many respected people on wall street.
But my respect for these guys is on the way down.
Read this article by Barry Ritholtz on his blog.
Watered down Stress tests? Well anyone can tell that these tests were not supposed to tell the whole truth . What? they were going to give us the truth as it is? and risk burying the banks?
But the banks could negotiate? Watered down stress tests, which were anyways supposed to be " not so harsh"?
Man it looks like the same thing over and over again.
If thats not enough , read this ,again from Barry's blog. Let me print here the horrific part from that article
"Just by way of example, Barry Ritholtz, chief of [Fusion IQ] seems more than a tad aghast at the idea that Messrs. Geithner and Bernanke, after duly weighing the results of their not-exactly-stressful tests, have concluded that banks will be fine in the future with 25-to-l leverage (Tier 1 capital equal to 4% of risk-weighted assets)."
25-1 leverage? WHOA!!!!!!!
Wasn't 30-1 leverage what caused these issues in the first place, so they now allow 25-1 leverage?
For causing on of the biggest meltdowns , all these banks get is a slap on the wrist and we are back to the same things, at least thats hat it looks like.

BTW , This is just what is happening, the long term picture. This does not mean traders should go out and short banks and other stocks.
What these means is things are not that great with the banks as hey seem to be and that is just my humble opinion.
If the chart looks good I will buy any stock but I will be very careful if I buy a bank for a trade.
A very tight stop.

What a rally!

noreply@blogger.com (Globalcitizen) — Tue, 05 May 2009 06:07:27 PDT

WOW !, what a rally, the volume is very low but still , what a rally. I never thought it could rally so much.
Well thats why its tough to make money consistently in the markets.
I am sticking to what I have and not doing much. We are so overbought I cannot buy anything more here. So I will wait patiently unless is find some very good stocks.
VMW seems like its good but lets see.
Silver is one commodity I would like to buy here , but I am in no hurry.

Couple of good websites for traders

noreply@blogger.com (Globalcitizen) — Sun, 03 May 2009 13:21:10 PDT

Have a look at these websites if you are interested in trading , it can be to learn about being a good trader or to get good picks.
www.hardrightedge.com
www.tickerville.com

This is why its not easy to trade in the markets

noreply@blogger.com (Globalcitizen) — Sun, 03 May 2009 13:40:48 PDT

The markets have been overbought for a loooong time now but they keep going higher.
Now you see many momentum stocks lose their momentum, AAPL, RIMM, AMZN etc. and the markets still manage to be higher.
This drags in the casual trader/investor just to see the markets tank suddenly.
Then they get frustrated and give up.
This is why the market proffessionals are called "smart money " .
Well its not always that they are right always, like you saw, "smart money" was heavily invested in banks and got floored when the banks tanked.
But as a rule of thumb , avoid when "smart money", wait a minute, lets just call them "big money". So when big money starts buying, just keep away ( away from shorting, if you wanna buy , then wait for a breakout). How to know they are buying, its when the stock/market just keep going up for no reason.
It also works the other way, then big money is selling the stocks or markets keep going down no matter what.
This is also know as " The trend is your friend". Its your friend not because you think similarly but because big money is dictating the trend and they can move markets.

Very informative post from ritholtz.com

noreply@blogger.com (Globalcitizen) — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 10:42:06 PDT

Over at Barry Ritholtz's blog he has this post with a picture which shows how overbought we are.
Click here.

Think Risk/Reward

noreply@blogger.com (Globalcitizen) — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 08:32:02 PDT

As this rally shows no side of letting up, think Risk/Reward.
How high can it go if you buy now. How low can it go ? If you do some analysis and reading then you will agree that this rally needs a break and he upside is limited and downside seems huge.
This is just my opinion. If you hold longs , protect them with a stop loss.
The markets have been igonoring all bad news , but sooner or later its going to face the reality. I am not buying anything new here. Maybe a little more GLD/GDX.
But I will wait for consolidation/pullback before I buy any calls.

Bear Markets rallies in the past

noreply@blogger.com (Globalcitizen) — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 12:11:37 PDT

I have seen this a few times now but it provides a good picture.
Is this rally a bear market rally or not? Technically we will not know unless the patterns are completed, but we can surely speculate.
This charts is from 1929 , we need not follow the same pattern but its worth looking at. Especially nowadays many people are saying that 20% rally from a low equals a new bull market.
This is not true, as you will see in the chart in previous bear markets the rallies have been over 30% and the overall trend was still down.
Maybe its different this time but I think we should try and learn from history.
Here it is again.

So QCOM and BRCM are settling?

noreply@blogger.com (Globalcitizen) — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 12:37:20 PDT

Yesterday QCOM delayed their earnings statement , the reason they said was that they are in talk with BRCM to settle a dispute.
Now the news can be anything but I feel that this is a win for BRCM, see QCOM is settling not BRCM, so to me it looks like that they might be paying BRCM .
This is just some assumption from me but check it out and see how it looks.
Both QCOM and BRCM were up but both went down and are kinda flat now.
I did get some BRCM out of money ( otm ) calls , just a few.
Hope it works out and BRCM runs up a bit more.

So QCOM

noreply@blogger.com (Globalcitizen) — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 10:39:20 PDT

Markets

noreply@blogger.com (Globalcitizen) — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 10:28:35 PDT

So where do we stand with the markets? It looks like we finally are taking a breather, though we are up today, the resistance is tough to break as the rally gets a bit weak.
There are some major earnings reports due like AMZN and AAPL and a few which not many will focus on but important anyways like BRCM, CREE etc.
In any case what I am doing is I have a few qqqq puts and calls on some individual names.
The markets will consolidate but good stocks have room to run.
BRCM is down almost 10% as they announce that they will buy Emulex.
I think this could be a good pullback but I am afraid to do anything in front of the earnings call.

Are lipstick sales a good economic indicator

noreply@blogger.com (Globalcitizen) — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 10:25:14 PDT

Here is a unique way to look at things. Lipstick sales, yes there are those who say that lipstick sales inndicate how the economy is doing .
Read that story from nytimes.com by clicking here.