Stocks to WATCH

On Deck, Oncothyreon- Batter up! (for something never done before)

2012-01-27T10:14:00.008-05:00

It's about time and performance...

All this whining about short sellers and this n that .

There are going to be naysays on anything that tries to do something never done before.

Our issue, BIOM/ ONTY has been in the game a long time, training for what's coming, the big game.

Time and performance, is what it's all about. The issue is either gonna step up to the plate and get a hit or not. It may be a single (stimuvax continue from the on going IA) or something better. In my view, the only way it could strike out is if Merck KgaA's Interim Analysis results is a stop on futility for the Stimuvax, in Phase III lung cancer trial.

There are the typical short jeers and naysays in the stands. There's Cramer's street.com team Feurerstien and his friend Martin Shrkerli, admited short hedge fund hack.

If ONTY's produces in their pipeline, the naysays will be swept away like garbage on the beach from the wave of excitement that follows in success.

If not, our issue will fade back to be like the way BIOM was once headed before they turned things around.

My take is that Stimuvax with Merck KGaA , and ONTY's PX 866, ONT 10 , ONT-710 all have unique features that point to at least one or more having what it takes to put ONTY in the big leagues of Biotech.

At the current share level in the 6's makes it an interesting speculation. After trimming some over accumulated shares in the 7's, I added some back to my core position in the 6's. I am not saying there is no risk , there is some. However, with an ONTY in the 6's I am willing to accept it with some long ONTY shares. I have already estimated here what a successful Stimuvax with Merck KGaA as the lead phama responsible would mean to ONTY who licenses it to them and I get one word- staggering.

The shorts have piled on following Shkereli's Seeking Alpha article that assigned Stimuvax a 0% chance of success. I have run my own DD as other ONTY longs and we assign a better chance. To do WHAT?

Something NEVER done before...

HELP some people to use their own immune system to beat the beast of lung cancer!

http://watch.ctv.ca/news/latest/cancer-vaccine/#clip194521

Yes, the naysays are now MANY.

The issue is largely ignored by the media, that clip was from year 2009. Now there are only TEN year survivors from earlier trials STILL on the shot of hope n fight. TEN years!

Let the naysays be. Let the media sleep.

I'm long some ONTY

Note: I said SOME, NOT too much.

If they succeed in ANY of their pipeline some could be enough.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Is it time to trade WNR and take the gain?

2012-01-26T12:38:00.003-05:00

Western Refinery.

Today, WNR is whipsawing down in intraday trading. Is this opportunity to buy or time to trade it and sell? I am wondering this because a director just unloaded some shares near $16 a share. I will now refer to the chart to try to answer if I should take the small gain on WNR and trade it ?

Looking at the recent periods of runs to corrections, I have to objectively say yes, it is time to take the gain on WNR, even if a small gain.

Better to make a little than lose in a correction. Sometimes a technical view of the Chart is all it takes to make a decision. I am not getting caught up in "the whipsaw" on that one, but will revisit the trade at another time.

None of the above is intended as buy/ sell advice, it's just an on the fly opinion and what I am doing. When it comes to stocks and the market? I don't trust anybody except my own intuition. That's the way I roll.
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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Oncothyreon's PX 866 Mechanism of action in "english".

2012-01-26T09:17:00.003-05:00

Oncothyreon's PX 866.

The problem with a lot of the scientific papers from the geeks out there are that they don't speak english . They never put it in terms that a regular person can understand. So here is my understanding and attempt to translate the Mechanism of Action of PX 866.

PX 866 is a PI3K inhibitor. From what I can gather from this scientific lingo, PI3K is over expressed in many cancers. This means it is responsible for allowing the cancer to "trick" the human machine and immune system by making defective cancer cells appear like normal cells.

So if PX 866 "inhibits" this PI3K pathway... what happens is that it allows the immune system to attack cancer or stop growth in people that have this PI3K trickery going on. Now if PX 866 is COMBINED with other agents it is an extra heavy dose of tumor killing agents.

That PX 866 is the only covalently bonded agent in Phase II trials today in an oral dose is very promising for people with cancer and the developer, Oncothyreon.

My take from the Market view

In the market of recent, we are seeing large Pharma take immediate steps to address their fading pipelines and are buying up Co's with drugs in Phase II.

VRUS, INHX and now MITI are all examples.

ONTY may not be far off from a sudden and unexpected takeout attempt or a large pharma partner. One reason I think ONTY is holding off on partnering too cheaply is because each individual indication and specific combo with an already approved drug is a potential source of huge market. For example, PX 866 could be the added ingredient to actually make these already approved drugs actually WORK in a longer term and more meanignful way for a larger % of people than just statistical significance such as avastin and erbitux.

I suspect Oncothyreon is on to something with PX 866 in a BIG way.

While the market is focused on the Interim Analysis (IA) by large Pharma partner Merck KGaA on Stimuvax, it has totally ignored the progress that ONTY has made on PX 866.

Sleep lil' market sleep.

PS: After reading my own description above it begs the question, Why not combine PX 866 with Stimuvax or ONTY's own ONT-10 approaching clinical trials this year?
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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Staying tempered in this market ..(but somewhat optimistic).

2012-01-23T12:39:00.010-05:00

Market Talk:

Recently, the market has been pretty much ignoring the eurozone and running on economic indicators here in the US. Things seem to be slowly improving which may lead to an Obama second term. Still, I foster staying aware and staying tempered.

There are news of talks with private Greek bond holders possibly reaching agreement with eurozone leaders that may lead to renewed optimism that they are getting it together. If deals are made, that may sustain the market with the notion that the euro is still alive and as a result may fuel renewed global trade as China has 1.5 Billion people and if they like it or not, need resources and trade to continue growth to sustain their vast population.

Stock Talk:

I remain tempered in some of the stocks highlighted below and dry powder ($) also.

Oncothyreon, ONTY

Many people are speculating about this n that on Stimuvax's hope that the Interim look of the Phase 3 trial will or will not result in an FDA approval to treat lung cancer. The key question remains, are the additional 176 events going to put the data over the statistical hurdle or will they have to go the final look of the data in the Phase 3 trial? We won't know the answer until Merck KGaA is darn good n ready to announce the readout, expected sometime this quarter. What is my prediction? Can't say for sure but I think it will either be a continue or a stop on efficacy.

Some works if its a continue and some works if it's a success.

If it is a success there will be a celebration on the life of the matter and for the fighters - that's a good part of why I want to be in some ONTY.

but too much ONTY ? no, not for me on any stock. Knowing BIOM from years back and how nothing has ever gone too easy - I remain tempered and use the word some ONTY.

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Navios Maritime, NM

I have posted about NM in dry bulk shipping. It's been rough going for the sector. Is it bottoming? NM earned my respect regardless. NM has traded range bound amd close in the 3's lately. Meanwhile the dividend is over 6 % and quite nicely paid on 1/5. If the Greeks and the eurozone get it together, I won't be surprised to see NM eventually pop into the 4's.

Western Refinery, WNR

While gasoline and heating fuel consumption has been lowered in this slowed economy, some east coast refineries are being shuttered. Western Refinery may be positioned to gain from less US refineries and they are closer to access to West Texas sweet crude. In addition, WNR can refine the sour crude that comes from the Canadian tar sands. It seems like WNR may be in the sweet spot for good earnings and continued improvement of their fundamentals. I am thinking WNR may be in a pre breakout mode , so I am in some and watching it. But tempered in my bullishness.

Watching many.

Dry Powder ($) too

I have some of the above and yet I may trade into or out of any stock at any time and that's the way I roll for now.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Straight up Stock Talk- let's roll. (updated 1/20/12)

2012-01-19T09:33:00.017-05:00

Market Talk:

Today, Bank of America reports swinging to a $2 B profit. That's a good number and the market likes it. But looking at BAC's key data, they have $606 B in cash, but a whopping $740 B in debt. That's a cash to debt imbalance $134 BILLION dollars. Well, the market doesn't care and is riding up BAC in premarket on the earmings beat.

Euro-smuro ?! That's another worry that's being put by the wayside lately. Seems US investors are saying hey euro zone - get it together but we don't care as much anymore, you've held us down long enough!

Well Ok, sentiment is what it is - a flighty bird. Some fundamentals in the US seem to be somewhat improving in the economic indicators.

I am now going to offer some straight up stock talk:

Stock Talk:

I do this blog for fun and to try to provide insight from years of experience. I am not infallible and anybody who thinks or acts like they are in the market will eventually get a heavy dose of humilty handed to them. I am just a humble market warrior, one of the little people. Any opinion I put down here is that and it may change based on the nature of time, events and changing dynamics that affect the future.

In regards to specific stocks, the market may take our picks another way than we want. That's life! But how we deal with that is a way we have to learn to overcome adversity. sometimes we just cut our loss and walk, live to fight another day. Sometimes when a nice gain comes, its hard to know when to sell and take some.

If you find yourself in too much of any one stock when there's a risk, and you are saying to yourslef- sheesh if this stock fails, it's really gonna hurt- then that's a sign to trim some. Don't let any one stock kill ya.

Here is some specific Stock Talk:

ONTY, waiting on an interim look readout by lead Pharma Merck KGaA on their Stimuvax compound to potentially treat the leading cause of cancer death, lung cancer. I have posted enough about ONTY for awhile until the readout comes in. It may be a continue , it may be a stop for either futilty (failure to prove) , or a Stop for efficacy (success!).

I think it will either be a Continue or a Stop on efficacy. If it's a continue, ONTY management will likely effect the S3 to release some shares to fund other ongoing trials of the pipleine. But there will likely be many bashers putting on the "ONTY-hate" if a continue happens. Meanwhile, (if a continue) new shares being released could cause downward pressure on share price.

On the other hand, a stop on efficacy?? That changes everything and ONTY will be a stock the market definitely wants to be long on. I stand by my predictions on ONTY if a stimuvax success to FDA approval comes in. "IF". IF the if happens - ONTY stock enters a new era and much higher new levels in my oipinion.

I read some signals and honestly can't tell what the IA readout will be. I already gave my Mountain path talk saying to my readers if you accumulated too much, a little circumspection may be called for. I did and trimmed some of my over accumulated shares; however I remain long on a fair amount to celebrate possible success. I am no big institution here, just a little people trader and investor, a market warrior with no ties to any formal group except for family, friends (like my readers) and mainly - the one above us all.

NM, Navios Maritime. I posted why I am in some NM. Solid management and good business logistics. NM is not only a dry bulk shipping Co with a modern fleet, they operate the Terminal port off the Coast in South America at the vertex of two rivers that flow through every South American Country rich in the resources that China needs. I think that gives NM an edge.

Yes, shipping is a challenged environment. I am thinking NM may creep higher into the 4's and 5's and collecting that over 6% divy in the meantime. Will the market let it run? It should but I watch my stocks. Right now its trading in a tight range in the 3's. If a breakout happens it could happen fast on upgrades. There has been a recent flow of bash articles on shipping, but regardless NM earned my respect in the downturn of the sector. enough to hold some and watch it.

WNR is a new "some" position. If interested, you can scroll down and read my previous post about WNR and refiners.

A stock I am running some DD on is Achillion Pharmaceuticals, ACHN.
They are developing a class of hepatitis C drugs called proteas inhibitors (PI). From initial reports, their one drug in early test has a very high response rate with benign side effects compared to the existing approved drugs. The recent buyout mania of VRUS and INHX is for nucleotide polymerase inhibitors that people are calling "nucs".

update: 1/20/11

ACHN had a nice run. It will no doubt attract a lot of shorts.

As an update a SA article came out by a short seller that pointed out that ACHN's drug was tested with interferon and the nuc type drugs by other companies without interferon. ACHN is subsequently in a bear raid, I am watching it but avoiding ACHN.

just watching those two .

IDIX, on a dip , may or may not look interesting again. .

I may trade any and all of the above stocks at any time. That's the way I roll, for now.
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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Shipping: Cramer's oil tanker NAT vs my Dry Bulk shipping pick - NM and other Stock Talk

2012-01-17T11:29:00.013-05:00

Stock Talk:

Today, I would like to summarize my take on Cramer's suggestion that when anybody calls in on shipping and asks him about a shipper stock, he always steers them away from whatever pick and points them to oil tanker stock fav - NAT.

I am circumpsect about NAT being a better pick than Navios Maritime, NM

NM, in dry bulk shipping earned my respect as the best shipping co, maybe one of the best stocks in the entire market. Note, I said maybe.

I have posted before about how NM earned my respect and I think they can creep higher from the present 3's into the 4's and 5's. Let me summarize.

NM has done a good job in a challenged shipping climate by arrangng longer term contracts with their modern fleet of ships. NM also operates a large modern terminal port off the coast if Uruguay on the vertex of two riers that flow through every South American country rich in rersources that China is demanding for their 1.5 Billion people. (yes China has more people than they accounted for in their census due to migrating Chinese not accounted for)

Some say oh the BDI so low, this and that. Well, NM maintained their eps and pays a nice divy too, over 6%! Well, that was quite a nice dividend deposited into my account in January. Thank you NM.

I am now always watching my stocks and may trade them anytime. However, I am staying with NM awhile. I suspect a bottom in shipping and NM earned my respect. If some shippers go under as some say, I think NM will be a survivor and may gain from some of the hares in shipping that really "sunk" hard from the shipping heydays of a few years ago.

On the other hand Cramer keeps pumping NAT, oil tanker stock. The tensions in the Persian Gulf make me circumspect. Also, that last Divy NAT paid was done wth borrowed money.

I don't mind and understand Cramer has his fav's and such. Just saying when he downplays my pick to upplay his when I think the facts say different? I'll post my view here.
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and what about my ONTY stock you ask?

I am long in some ONTY where if a continue or something other than a success in the interim look (IA) of the START lung trial comes in?

It will sting some but it's not gonna kill me or affect the way I dine in the future. On the other hand if Stimuvax is proven effectve in the IA? It will be nice to celebrate the life of the matter and be in some ONTY in my view.

From reading the many mixed signals out there and quietness of Merck KGaA and ONTY's CEO interview the other day, I can't tell what's up and give up trying.

Kirkman's "perfectly contented" statement about "if" the IA readout is a continue will have certain implications towards future share releases. Sometimes in the past - when that guy is perfectly contented, I'm not as an ONTY shareholder !

Well, yes I am in some ONTY but If the above statement about having too much and affecting the way you may eat applies to you, I gave my Mountain path talk (scroll down) for you.

watching many.

Stocks:

Currently in some:

NM and ONTY.

traded IDIX. watching it.

DRY Powder ($), always.

Good luck to the fighters. Keep moving forward.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JjeeMww_vhk&feature=related
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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Mountain Path Talk for Stock Market Warriors

2012-01-13T00:45:00.011-05:00

Tonight, I will touch on topic that can be difficult for some to manage. I have no hard and fast rules but try to stay aware of practices that have worked for me at times.

There are all kinds of strategies out there so I am not going into hedging techniques, options, covered calls and such. I don't do any of that. Some say I fly without a net. Works for me, but at times it means getting a little nimble too.

Generally, we should pick good stocks that we believe have growth and that have some unique characteristics and stay aware of fundamentals and sector dynamics that affect said stock. Some have amazing growth prospects and no earnings, that makes them more speculative. Others have good earnings and pay a dividend. How the market views such stocks at any given phase is important to stay aware and decide if it's a trade or maybe a longer term hold.

At same time, in this volatile market, we all know how it feels to be holding a bag on good stock gone bad. and we know how it feels to miss a big winner too.

I had a very smart friend insist that he was gonna show me how a Chinese coal company was going to teach us a lesson on trading. He was sure SCOK was going to beat the market at $12 a share, today it's under $3 . I don't hear from him anymore, but I wish I did, he was a smart chap. EVERYONE makes a bad pick once in awhile, it's the way of the market. IF we are not humble going in, we better learn a little humilty or the market will teach us the hard way.

On the other hand, I had another smart chap mention VRUS a company with a Hep C drug in the pipeline in single digits. One thing led to another and I missed that one go up about 20 X's where he mentioned it, before getting a buyout offer. Now he dogs me on occasion about ONTY that's only doubled from where he bailed. "only doubled"? Well in this lousy market I plead guilty. I picked a stock that only doubled (so far) from the days of our desert journey on the first look "continue" decision.

Where VRUS is now being bought out, it's run is done. But ONTY? could be just beginning if Stimuvax cancer treatment makes good with lead Pharma Merck KGaA... "IF".

I want to talk about "IF" for a moment on this Mountain path...

In my previous post, I showed ONTY's CEO interview and statements about what's at stake in the interim look of the 529 fighters that have passed in the START lung trial.

I have said that where I have been previously more optimistic about the pros of a positive outcome this look that I feel that the various mixed signals are making the whole picture too hard to actually predict and I no longer feel as confident although I don't know and nobody outside of some inner circle of this dmc analysis team should know.

The first look that happened last year on 353 events was apparently too ambiguous to call either way or not statistically significant. That means to me that the extra 176 events or so in this coming look need to tip the balance to statistical significance. I am not a statitician, but depending on the hurdle to satisfy the FDA and the actual results, the outcome will lead to one of these decisions:

- a Continue to the final look
- a Stop on efficacy
- a Stop on Futilty.

The majority of people I am aware of believe it will either be a Continue or a stop on efficacy from looking at the length of times involved.

ONTY's management said they are perfectly content with a continue.

Well regardless of what happens, something's gonna happen after the readout is announced.

That is what brings me to this Mountain path talk. Over the years, I have been somewhat of a champion of what I have called the shot of hope n fight. I still AM .

Some of the fighters on the shots seem to be living testimony to the shots effectiveness. That is documented fact.

At same time, I am not about giving stock advice, I don't do that here. I try to foster awareness and being aware of reward to risk. I have always said "some" not too much where risk is involved.

That being said, I hold a lot of ONTY (for one of the little people, like me). But not too much where if a continue is announced and say the stock sold off some, it would kill me and/ or my investment warchest.

So that's what I want to say. Some of my friends may be holding too much on a binary event that can't precisely be predicted in my view. If that describes you, maybe this time on the Mountain path is to pause and think about it, maybe trim back some if holding "too much" on a less than desirable outcome that is possible.

If an outcome happens that is less than a stop on efficacy, the market may somewhat punish our ONTY stock. On the other hand an eventual stop on efficacy, changes everything for the positive. For the positive -- for figthers of cancer and for stock warriors too,

That's why I am in some ONTY, waiting.

But as a market warrior, sometimes staying a little defensively nimble is smart. It can beat getting hurt bad on a temporary fade with share totals that accumulated into "too much".

Well, that's my mountain path talk. Sometimes it's just OK to say " I don't know" and play it that way.

I hope.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nizxZImh5N8

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Stimuvax Trial: Are the 529 enough?

2012-01-12T11:09:00.003-05:00

Oncothyreon awaits key lung cancer vaccine data
SAN FRANCISCO | Wed Jan 11, 2012 4:05pm EST

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - An interim look at a pivotal trial of Oncothyreon's experimental vaccine for lung cancer, expected this quarter, could signal whether its investment will ever pay off.

Robert Kirkman, chief executive officer of Oncothyreon, said the interim review is triggered when a certain number of patients have died.

"In some sense, the longer it takes the better it is," he said in an interview on Wednesday during the JP Morgan Healthcare conference.

The worst case scenario would be if independent overseers stop the trial after determining that Stimuvax is not working, while the best case would be if they stop the study early because the data shows clear efficacy.

"We would be perfectly content if the decision is to continue the trial to its end," Kirkman said. "We still expect to have top-line data in 2012. If the trial continues, we would have those results in the second half."

Oncothyreon has licensed the vaccine, Stimuvax, to Germany's Merck KGaA, which is conducting the expensive Phase III trial involving 1,514 patients.

The trial is designed to show that Stimuvax improves survival by at least 6 months in newly-diagnosed lung cancer patients who have tumors confined to the chest cavity, but are not eligible for surgery, the CEO said.

Patients are treated with standard therapy of chemo and radiation followed by maintenance with Stimuvax, which is designed to prime a patient's immune system against certain cancer cells.

If Stimuvax is approved by regulators, Oncothyreon would receive $90 million in milestone payments as well as royalties in the mid-teens for North American sales and high single digits for the rest of the world.

"It will be transformative for us and it would be transformative in lung cancer," Kirkman said.

Positive trial results would also be validation for Oncothyreon's wholly owned follow-on cancer vaccine, ONT-10, for which it hopes to start human trials this quarter.

"We own all the rights. So to some extent we are doubling down on Stimuvax," he said.

The biotech company also expects results late this year from four Phase II cancer trials of its experimental PX-866 -- a drug from a class known as PI-3 kinase inhibitors. Several other companies are pursuing similar drugs and are likely to have mid-stage trial results this year as well.

"That's going to shake the field up. We are hoping that somebody will fail and they will then come to us," Kirkman said of potential partners.

(Reporting by Deena Beasley; editing by Carol Bishopric)

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My Take:

Reading Oncothyreon's CEO interview on face value makes it hard to read the tea leaves and predict an outcome of the interim look. They expect Merck KGaA to provide "a readout" this quarter. But, they don't tell us if the trigger happened and he previously said in the last conference call that he doesn't know if it did. On the other hand, rumors have been that the 529 trigger event happened. The DMC needs to analyze the interim data. They will be looking for statisitcal significance that out of 529 stage 3 lung cancer patients that have passed away, enough were on the placebo that it proves that the remaining fighters are beng helped by Stimuvax.

They are looking for statistical signifiance and to see if Phase 2 trial survival charts like this will be repeated in the larger trial with 1476 patients.

Reading that interview is cause for some circumspection. On one hand I am optimistic about an estimated interim look and time of the events from full enrollment of 1476 patients stated as May or June of last year and it's now about five years into the trial. That means START trial patients seem to be living much longer than the typical stage 3 lung cancer patient than we have seen in other trials.

On the other hand, it's hard to know for sure if some unknown quirk is skewing the results to make the outcome ambiguous enough to cause a continue or worst case a halt on futilty. The CEO's deadpan delivery of "perfectly content" if the trial continues is somewhat concerning to me.

I hope for the fighters of the world in need of a fight that the 529 is enough to prove Stimuvax is an effective treatment.

However, if it's not, the market may not be kind to ONTY for awhile. And if the interim look is successful causing Merck KGaA to go for FDA approval, everything changes for the positive.

After reading CEO Kirkman's interview?

Something never done before against the leading cause of cancer death woud be "transformational" with a huge impact to the world. However, things never done before are never easy.

I guess only time and performance will tell us. Too many new mixed signals make it hard to predict if this look will do it.

Yes Mrs. Calabash, We have to wait and see..

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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The Next Hep C buyout? IDIX

2012-01-10T13:32:00.002-05:00

Recently stock watchers saw two companies with FDA trials in Hepatitis C drugs get bought out for high premiumns over their market value.

VRUS got bought out for $11 Billion by Gilead

INHX just got bought by Bristol - Myers for $2.5 Billion , up about 143 % over the market price.

Next up?

This Company had some news the other day:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Idenix-Reports-Positive-prnews-3922927945.html?x=0

"Idenix Reports Positive Interim Data for HCV Nucleotide Inhibitor, IDX184
- No serious adverse events observed in phase IIb study of IDX184; Data Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) recommends continuation of the clinical trial
- In the 100 mg IDX184 arm, 73% of patients achieved a rapid virologic response (RVR) and 87% were undetectable at most recent visit; In the 50 mg IDX184 arm, 63% of patients achieved an RVR and 94% were undetectable at most recent visit
- Management to host conference call webcast at 5:30 a.m. PT/8:30 a.m. ET today"
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My take:

Well, will ligtning strike 3 X's and will a large Pharma jump on IDIX ?

some traders think so , IDIX is now breaking out into the 10's similar to the way INHX acted.

I can't predict it, but I'm gonna watch that IDIX.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Merck KGaA Explorer describes the Stimuvax compound, "Moon landing" impact potential

2012-01-09T11:53:00.006-05:00

For those wanting to learn more about the Stimuvax compound approaching the 6th year of the global Phase 3 lung cancer trial, here is a link to large Phama Merck KGaA's, (lead Stimuvax partner with ONTY) latest article.

http://magazine.merck.de/en/Life_and_Assistance/cancer_immunotherapy/stimuvax1.html

Here are some key excerpts :

"Guidance for the body’s immune system

2011/2/01

Which achievement was more monumental: the moon landing in 1969 or the eradication of smallpox 11 years later? The terrible virus that had killed nearly one-third of those afflicted with it was finally defeated in 1980. Smallpox was a true scourge to humanity for thousands of years, and it is even mentioned with horror in the Old Testament."

Read on to understand the way it works...

"A protein reveals the cancer cells

Several hundred other patients have since followed, all of them willing to participate in the next step toward broad-scale introduction of the cancer immunotherapy. The focus here is on specific types of lung tumors. So how does the cancer immunotherapy work? It exploits the natural characteristics of tumor cells and the body’s immune system: Many tumors, such as certain types of lung carcinoma, coat their outer layers with a protein known as Mucin-1 (MUC-1).

This protein betrays the tumor by making it recognizable to cells that might attack it, provided the attacker understands that the tumor is a threat. Stimuvax has been designed to “teach” the body’s defense cells exactly that. The cancer immunotherapy’s active agent is injected into a patient’s immune system in tiny globules called liposomes. Thanks to its “ferry” of liposomes, the active agent can very efficiently present itself to immune system sentry cells circulating in the blood. An immune reaction is then triggered, leading “killer cells” (in scientific terminology: cytotoxic T cells) to launch an attack against cancer cells lined with MUC-1.

In this manner, the body’s natural defensive systems are given an “assignment.” “Our immune system sees very well, but its vision isn’t always completely sharp,” says Wolf. “So just like we sometimes need eyeglasses, our cancer immunotherapy improves the immune system’s vision, causing it to focus on the excessive number of MUC1 molecules on tumor cells.”

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My take:

So where do we stand now since that Merck KGA article? Stimuvax is now approaching the 6th year in February of global Phase 3 lung trial with 1514 stage 3 fighters of lung cancer fully enrolled.

Yes friends, something never done before like that can have moon landing impact. To those involved , it's a watchful time as the data cards from 529 events are about to be considered to try to determine Stimuvax efficacy. Moon landing impact does not come without some risk.

It's just the way it is right now.

The stock to watch trading here in the US?
BLP-25 developer now licensing it as "Stimuvax" to Merck KGaA.

ONTY

If further interested in my view on the matter , scroll down. That's the way I see it until an update comes on the data.
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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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The most interesting stock in the world.

2011-12-31T10:49:00.015-05:00

There are so many companies out there in the stock market. Indeed, I study and follow many. Today, I will touch on the company and stock that I believe is the most interesting one in the world, Oncothyreon, symbol "ONTY". I will note that there is an ancient Chinese curse that goes something like "may all your days be interesting". However apart from Chinese sayings , I will try to convey some of what is so intriguing about ONTY.

You see Oncothryreon, has been involved in trying to bring cancer treatments to the people since 1985. Here is the business summary...

"Business Summary

Oncothyreon Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development of therapeutic products for the treatment of cancer. Its primary product candidate, Stimuvax is in Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer. The company also develops PX-866, a small molecule that is in Phase II trials. In addition, it engages in the preclinical development of ONT-10, a cancer vaccine. The company operates in Canada, the United States, Barbados, and Europe. Oncothyreon Inc. was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington." ...source yahoo finance.

But getting back to why ONTY is so compelling to me is many reasons. After over a decade of development in a compound to treat the leading cause of cancer death, lung cancer, ONTY's lead product is now at the cusp of a major key decision point, an interim look at global Phase 3 trial data. There have been a sea of competing drugs that have failed in this endeavor. From a stock perspective, many have come and gone from the field (like Cramer's former "best of breed" and FAILED pick "COLY" ) and  yet little ol' ONTY and Stimuvax remain in the 5th year of a global trial , fully enrolled with 1514 stage 3 lung cancer fighters.

Actually, it hasn't come easy. The road has been a long hard fought battle with the FDA maze of due trial process. But Thanks to a partnership with large Pharma Merck KGaA (of Germany) where ONTY licensed the further development and marketing to Merck, Stimuvax development continues on. Oncothyreon's partnership would result in Merck KGaA taking the vaccine to the market with a royalty and continued % of revenue stream relationship to Oncothyreon. For example an FDA approval would lead to ONTY being paid a remaining $90 Million payout just for starters.

For a clip of why and how this story may be so important to a sea of future fighters, watch this video from 2009...

http://watch.ctv.ca/news/latest/cancer-vaccine/#clip194521

Well, that was 2009. Since then, the media seems to have been shut down on Stimuvax coverage eventhough many of the original Phase 2 fighters live on - now TEN years!

To me, the interesting thing about Stimuvax is the compound itself. The Stimuvax compound was designed to target the antigen called Mucin, associated with many cancers in the blood and organs by training the immune T helper cells to target the antigen associated with metastasis (spreading).
It is T cells of our immune systems that fight infections and ailments that invade the body. A healthy immune system relies on T cells. So the mechanism of action (moa) has sometimes been treated by established medicine practitioners with "objective" skepticism bodering on a sort of passive aggressive undertone in some cases. Fact is. that the Stimuvax protocol is intended to augment established practices and best standard of care.   However I need to say that a lot of people just don't believe for one reason or another. I have addressed these skeptics in previous posts.

I am not saying Stimuvax success in the sense of reaching the coveted FDA approval - is a "slam dunk", "sure thing", or "in the bag".   However, the chances of success seem much better than the skeptics have led the naysays and those selling it short against the block. The data backs up a more optimistc view in my opinion. In reality, there has been almost a cloak of secrecy about Stimuvax. The world is just not aware of the many years of herculean effort , overcoming much adversity, by a small team of scientists starting back in the Biomira days and now extending to experts at both ONTY in Seattle and now being led by Merck KGaA (in Germany) and their division called EMD Serona here in the US.

This is the Stimuvax survival chart from the two phase II trials.

As a company, Oncothyreon has further aces in it's arsenal- pipeline. There is a follow-on compund they call ONT -10 that demonstrates both cellular (like Stimuvax) and additional antibody responses to cancer in laboratory results. This clip explains the science as presented by Oncothyreon's Dr. Peterson at the World Vaccine Congress.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1n5p9xyx068

As a long time investor of years, starting with the former Biomira in Edmonton, Canada and now called Oncothyreon, headquartered in Seattle - it has been a long haul to get to this point. The upcoming interim look is to be triggered on 529 fighters in the Phase 3 START lung trial. Many cancer trials are not stopped for efficacy in an interim look and require the final look to statistcally determine efficacy. The many shorts are banking that will happen with Stimuvax. They think that ONTY will immedaitely dump on a "continue" by impatient traders not willing to wait for the final look being guided to happen in 2012 if a continue.

There are three possible outcomes of the interim look.

-a stop on efficacy.
- a Continue
- a stop on futilty.

While nobody without inside information can say what this look will bring, published short analysts assign a ZERO chance of success. Adam Feurestien of the Cramer's street.com calls it an "immunoflop" or something like that. and there is a short based hedge fund on SA that assigned it a 0 Chance of success citng differences of opinion on the MOA. I have addressed these short skeptics in my view and believe them to be short-sighted biased bordering on the absurd. I am not saying there's no risk of failure. I am saying that the data does not back up such a negative view and rather I assign at least a 70 % chance of ultimate success. I feel that the interim has a better than even chance of success in terms of stopping the trial on efficacy but by how far, I can't be sure... I hesitate to state my opinion because it's based on what I believe is common sense that people are living longer and 2/3 of the people in START on on the real deal vs a placebo.

The primary objective is to prove Stimuvax in the trial by the survival numbers and the numbers will speak.

This is one man, a fighter, enrolled in the START trial from the get go.

http://www.ronreyn.com/

Tentative Conclusion:

I can't say for sure what the interim look of the START trial will bring us but I feel that the 529 trigger is amoung us. From looking at typical lung cancer patient with Stage 3 status, the trial in the 5th year and fully enrolled with 1476 fighters since May of 2011 seems to have much longer living patients than the norm. In addition, the phase 2 trials also have a high percentage of patients still around after TEN years some on the shots every six weeks.

I would not want to be short somethng we call the the Shot of Hope n' Fight if it comes in on the interim look. And if it's a continue, the shorts may be over estimating just how far ONTY will fade. They may be underestimating the ONTY long as well. We have endured many years and tears over the course of this effort. Six more months or so to the final look is not that far away.

I have not even touched on the many reasons, pipeline included that make ONTY the most interesting stock in the world to me; however this song kind of captures it better than my words can convey.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzXMFdvJ6Tk&feature=related

ONTY, the most interesting stock in the entire market.

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My vison and hope :

(... and the Fighters on the hill stand...

The white light of the truth engulfs the battlefield...

naysays scatter like RATS on FIRE!

... as Warriors take the Mountain

saying ... LIFE trumps ALL !)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JjeeMww_vhk&feature=related

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Hey Cramer - lay off my picks! and strolling by the RAT scat.

2011-12-29T12:10:00.009-05:00

Market Talk: The market meanders about, one day eurozone worries take it down, the next day maybe things work out in Italy's bonds - and thus we see meandering. Meanwhile, many America companies are doing OK. Investors are fearful, some are bolder and go where the chicken lil Cramer type chumps won't. If you think I am on a jihad against Cramer, it's because of his street.com lacky Feurerstein and the short hedge hack ho's attacking my shot of hope n fight pick, ONTY, trying to bring new cancer treatments to the world of fighters against the number one cause of cancer death, lung cancer and other forms too. Hey Cramer - lay off my pick!

Stock Talk:

Oncothyreon (ONTY) : I previously showed how Adam Feurersteins single point to bash Stimuvax an an "immunoflop" was that maybe 10% of a phase 2 trial were healthier by scoring in the treatment arm vs the control (placebo) group. So the phase 2 results showed a 17 month mean survival advantage by getting Stimuvax shots every 6 weeks. A phase 2 study had almost 50 % of the people living over 5 years and the START Phase 3 lung trial in the 5th year (and has recently met it's trigger of 529 events to cause an interim look of the data- in my opinion). A 10% variation in the culling of stimuvax vs placebo groups is well within a statistical norm but that does not explain how a Phase 2 study can have such a high rate of survivors living 5 years and longer, some now TEN years still getting their shots.

Hey Feurestein what are you implying here? inuendo's and bash articles don't speak to me. The phase 2 charts do as well as TEN year survivors!

Ya know what Cramer? If I did not know better, I'd think your team is working with short hedge hack ho's to bring down my stock. FERGET IT sony boy! The Phase 3 data will speak.

The START lung trial has 1476 patients enrolled since May or June of this year and is about to examine the data from 529 fighters that passed away in that fight and helped the cause for the future. If the data shows statistically that more of the Stimuvax group lives, there will be cause for expression of both gratitude for the fallen -- and great Hope and FIGHT for the future.

In the meantime, this is what speaks to me on my Mountain path..

http://watch.ctv.ca/news/latest/cancer-vaccine/#clip194521

Update: TEN YEAR SURVIVORS.

Yes, the idiots in the media are asleep and the Cramer/ Feuresteins / Short hedge hacks bash. We'll see my friends we will see.

LONG ONTY.

Next Pick: Navios Maritime (NM)

So Cramer can't come to pick NM a dry bulk shipping Co paying almost a 7% dividend consistently making good eps numbers. But in the same breath he pumps NAT an oil tanker company that borrows to pay dividends and stashes oil for big companies when they want to hide the supply from the oil market????

Sheesh!

NM has the South American edge. They operate a large terminal on the coast of Uruguay at the vertex of two rivers that traverse every South American country rich in resourses (that China needs). NM has a modern fleet of ships and arranges smater long term contracts before even purchasing a ship.

NM is a good buy in the 3's and I believe will creep higher. In the meantime, I'll gladly accept that 7% dividend along the way.

Hey Cramer - lay off my picks!

This is how I will step around RAT scat on the Mountain path..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UrGLNtZ0rEg&feature=related

Thank you.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Weeknd Wrap: How to beat the anxiety trap...

2011-12-16T23:36:00.009-05:00

Well folks, you see my last post. We could go on and on about the state of affairs in the world, the euro condition, global warming, man's inhumanity to man and animals too, the list goes on and on -- if we let it. The market, the world, ? listen too close and all you'll end up is with a heavy heart or a bad case of anxiety....

Here's something I do to lose it all.

RIDE a BIKE!

that's right. get on a bike and pedal, pedal, pedal if you are able.

I have a few bikes, nothing fancy. One is a multi speed mountain bike my brother Joe gave me. My brother? Now there's a biker, heavy duty. He takes day trips up the Mountains, 80 miles. That's a whole other class of biker.

I am not talking about that level. I am talking about hopping on a bike and taking a few spins around the block, in the park, wherever it's safe to ride.

I was listening to the TV doctor on the weekend, Dr. Isadore Rosenthal. He has lot's of tips. But one day he spoke of a study where people who ride a bike 20 miles a week or more lower their risk of heart attack by 50%.

Now I will tell you my thoughts on biking..

No matter what is going on around you, in the world, when you hop on a bike and ride, it becomes like a worry free zone. Even if you start out full of anxiety or worry , if you ride long enough, you lose it by the time you're done.

I have evolved into a single gear enthusiast. I had an old bike I got at a yard sale and brought it back with new tires. I started riding it around the park with some light hills. I came to appreciate the nuances of riding a single gear bike, when a hill comes or you want to pick up some speed, just stand up. I like to say intervals of ten. While standing on the pedals, I never sit on less than an interval of ten, It may be ten or it may be 80, up a hill. As you do this, you appreciate the workout effects.

Since, I recently got a walmart special, a single gear bike called The Thruster, fixie, by Kent bikes. It's now my favorite "training" bike. I typically go out for an hour or so, sometimes with no particular destination, other times for errands or a special route with a mix of hills and flatlands or trails that I like.

Well. it's the weekend. Just cause it's gettin' a little colder doesn't stop me. I put on a coat and stocking hat, gloves and I am good to go. I added a front and back light cause Ok I do some nght riding too. These lights blink if want them too so I blink the back red lights. The LED lights take light AA bateries and last a long time.

Well That's my take. One last thought..When you are riding a bike, your mind is free to be free. When you ride , it's a feeling of weightlessness that motion provides. It's just like a form of controlled flying I say!

Your mind being free may come up with new thinking to solve a problem or even connect with nature and the one above us all. Yup, ride a bike, if you are able. It's a win win deal for body, mind n spirit.

Thank you.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Today, I will let the fast talkers talk. I have something on the Mountain Path - HOPE.

2011-12-12T09:37:00.011-05:00

Market Talk:

More euro talk. Friday it was fixed, Monday it may not be. blah, blah, blah. Let the fast talkers on the cnbc show talk. I have something today that nobody has on this Mountain path, a friend and hope.

Stock talk:

ONTY: Back in the day, I asked Cramer if he would look into BIOM (now ONTY) and BLP25 as it seemed like a lot of people were living longer and beating the beast of lung cancer for over 5 years on the shots every six weeks.. This is an now old , obscure, forgotten Canadian TV clip from 2009...

http://watch.ctv.ca/news/latest/cancer-vaccine/#clip194521

Thing is... the BLP25 (now called Stimuvax by the lead Pharma Merck KGaA) saftey study now has TEN YEAR fighters, survivors STILL getting their shot of hope n fight every six weeks...

Cramer's pick was "COLY" as his "best of breed". Kind of ironic that COLY's treatment bit the dust long ago , but lil ol "no news Stimuvax " is still going strong in the 5th year of the phase 3 lung cancer trial, global with fully enrolled 1514 patients. Kind of ironic that Cramer's street.com biotech guy- Adam Feurerstein has been non stop bashing the Stimuvax effect to treat lung cancer patients and our hopes . (Hmmm ... kind of reminds me of when he bashed dndn...)

This I say... I will let the short -based fast talkers talk and squawk ! I have addressed them all in my own mind and in my post of Dec 4th to come to the tentative conclusion that Stimuvax has about a 70% chance of succeeding in something NEVER done either in the interim look of 529 events or the final look.

Those of us who walk the Mountain path in some ONTY and stimuvax hope - have something that NO trial ever had... a fighter who stands up to be counted - right from the getgo - come what may.

http://www.ronreyn.com/RR/RR-ABOUT.htm

Ron Reyn.

WE should all thank him for sharing his story, come what may.
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... and the fighters on the hill stand

horseman carrying swords of truth and light...

(charts, figures, HLA biotypes too! and what of derivative immunity effects ?)

they charge the field called awareness ...

naysays scatter like rats on fire!

WARRIORS take the field!

to climb the Mountain, a place called overlook pass awaits.

awareness sets in , en mass ...

a celebration of LIFE has no equal!
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(prediction: ONTY doubles within 2 months on increased awareness alone)

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Others:

Navios Maritime (NM): Here is another one Cramer can't bring himself to mention without saying he's bearish on NM meanwhile pumping his fav pick in shipping-- an oil tanker company called NAT.

NM is a dry bulk shipping company that proved to be the real deal during the downturn out of ALL shipping companies . NM grew eps and mantains a solid dividend over 6% and is still under $4 bucks a share In addition, I have already reported about NM's modern fleet of contracted ships and modern terminal port in South America that I believe gives them an edge over others in logistics to resource rich South America and a doorway to the world.

Meanwhile, NAT an oil tanker cvompany borrowed to maintain their dividend. Looky here Jim. I have a lot of respect for your stock accumen but we all know oil tankers are places to hide oil during times of oil gluts when they want to manipulate the oil price..

Funny thing is, I am no longer standing alone on my bullishness with NM. There's a growing club of NM enthusiasts. JP Morgan and Motely Fool too ...

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/12/09/1-shipping-company-you-might-want-to-buy.aspx

I'll walk the mountain with what I believe to be the real deal.

NO disrespect intended to Jim Cramer, but I think he needs to look deeper. (Ok I admit- I watch Cramer's show alot to keep posted on that madman's views but I believe between Cramer and Feurestein - they are making huge mistakes on these two.)

Thank you.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Does a Euro deal mean the all clear bell is here in the market? and Stock Talk

2011-12-09T14:00:00.006-05:00

Market Talk:

The eurozone deal today is bouncing the volatile market indeed. There are many details unsolved and UK is balking; but no matter , a relief rally is a relief rally. Will it follow through into coming months?

Stock Talk:

I am not sure about all things today, call me circumpsect about everything.

The following are the two stocks I am currently long on:

ONTY: I have looked at the data and charts from the previous two trials and have some hope that this on going trial called START is going to yield positiive results to finally get Stimuvax FDA approved. I am assigning about a 70% chance of success in my opinion which translates into anywhere from a fair to pretty good chance at doing something never done. How other's assign odds is up to them and how may they play it, invest in it, or gamble, whatever floats their boat is up to them. Today, I have a question. Where is the news media in this story?

Well, On ONTY I make no secret I am long and kind of bullish on Stimuvax as beng managed by lead Pharma Merck KGaA in the Phase 3 START lung trial. However, I want to state something. Regarding doubt, I have lumped all my concerns and assigned a risk. For me, it's about 28 or 30% and that keeps me tempered on my bullishness and is why I say "some" ONTY is enough if Stimuvax succeeds.

Navios Maritime (NM): I believe NM has proven themselves in this downturn as the best dry bulk shipping company. solid eps and dividend , better than 6 % makes me say that. I believe the stock can see higher if China loosens up for growth to keep all their many people employed. NM has ships that traverse all over the world from South America to Australia and China too. They also have a large modern terminal port off the coast of Uruguay on the vertex of two rivers that flow through every South American Country, rich in resources. Roads in South America are not always a modern highway system and river transport plays a key role in shipping. These are reasons I believe NM has an edge in addition to a sound practice of placing longer term contracts on ships before they are purchased and delivered.

INHX: Today they got an upgrade. I suggested this issue here and got some at the same time in the 10's and I sold today in the 14's . I will revisit INHX another day.

thank you.

"danny crane" - remember that one?

Well, there ya have it, my two picks and dry powder.

Well as we wrap up this Friday, it look's like the world survived another one. Have a great weekend , we'll take on next week as it happens.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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The "REAL" Impact of Stimuvax success on ONTY is TRIPLE digits and that is NO BS.

2011-12-06T11:08:00.006-05:00

Recently, it seems more Johnny come latelys are offering opinion pieces on the value of ONTY . I will now offer my take as a numbers man , one who has kicked around numbers for awhile now - forwards, sideways, and backwards. Here is my previous assessment that still stands showing how ONTY can get to triple digits, quite easily, on a Stimuvax success that may just be on the cusp of happening soon.

http://stockstowatch.blogspot.com/2011/08/assessment-what-value-onty-on-stimuvax.html

If anything, my $166 per share ONTY target is too light. I only assume a $25K fee for a year of Stimuvax treatments that wind up with a few shots every six weeks for the typical patient. and I am not even counting the accumulative effect of fighters living years beyond the normal of today's standards...

It goes like this...

http://watch.ctv.ca/news/latest/cancer-vaccine/#clip194521

Recently. there have been rumblings in the grape vine that Merck KGaA may go for a fee that represents what other successful cancer treatments have garnered. Roch'e avastin gets about $54 K per patient treatment , and DNDN provenge charges about $93 K and that's now approved by Medicare..

However, with ONTY sitting in the 7's now, I feel it appropriate just to show how I get triple digits, for starters on an ONTY success.

All this talk about ONTY being worth $31 a share OR not is just superfulous BS in my view.

Fact is, that I would consider something between $20 and $30 a share right now as something more respectful for what's been earned over the years n tears of getting to this point in the FDA maze.

But I am telling anybody who finds this blog and my words I am putting down here. Heed this ..

I believe we are sitting on a rocket ride to triple digit numbers if Stimuvax succeeds and on that I assign about a 70% chance.

"a Tell" whiile wait on next look report by Merck KGaA ?

maybe about a $200 Million buyin partnership on next generation compound, ONT -10, now fully owned by say who???

ONTY .

and THAT is my take on the Mountain path.

Thank you.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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The BEST is yet to come... Stay Tuned (and WHY I believe ...)

2011-12-04T14:10:00.009-05:00

Weekend Wrap up:

In my last post I suggested three stocks to outperform. ONTY, INHX and NM.

ONTY, today I will share how I personally resolved critics "opinions" on the Stimuvax story that has and is playing out before an unaware world in an unsung WAR against the biggest cancer KILLER of people everywhere.

INHX: The shorts against INHX, just don't get it. read my last post if interested in why I think INHX has more room to move, a lot.

NM: Yesterday, JP Morgan upgraded NM as best of breed in dry bulk shipping. This blog was way ahead of em. again read last post if interested.

LIKE THAT, I believe I am right on about ONTY and I will now address the critics of Stimuvax, and developers ONTY and now with Merck KGaA as the lead Phama taking it all the way.

How I resolved the critics of the Stimuvax lung cancer trial:

Over the years - of what we know as ONTY and Merck KGaA 's efforts to make the case for Stimuvax against the leading cause of cancer death in the world - This post is how I personally resolved concerns. I came to a tentative conclusion that there is anywhere from a fair to pretty good chance of success in the next look or the final look, it it goes that far. In terms of success chance I assign about a 70% chance. The chance of repeating the Phase II survival rates in START and being statistically significant to meet FDA approval.

Take short sided adam, for example. He dug up some info that said in retrospect analysis of the phase 2 trial that about 10% more of the incoming fighters were healthier by a scoring metric in the BLP25 (now called Stimuvax) group. This at first, was a concern to me. However a 10% even if so, is well within a normal statistical varaition and even if so does not explain a 50% long term suvival rate of over 5 years where 18 months, or maybe 2 years if healthier may be typical. Yes, there are some people who beat the beast long term without stimuvax but that is only about 10% of the entire population of lung cancer patients in stage III. That is before Stimuvax because Stimuvax has a large rate of people living now five, and yes TEN years n longer. (!)

Now, I will address other critics about "healthy" Stage III lung patients selected in the START Phase 3 trial. I think such critique is wrong headed. Firstly, the same criteria that is used on enrollment, for all fighters (both 2/3 Stimuvax and the 1/3 Placebo groups)- is stable disease and no progression - and that is used throughout the entire trial. So THAT is exactly the same criteria they use to end the continued series of six week shots and return the patient to normal Best Standard of Care (BSC). Point is -- it's consistent . I think they picked that protocol criteria for several well based reasons.

If a patient is not stable for a time, the disease burden may be out of control, too much for tcells and derivative fighting mechanisms to stem the cancer growth. That they use the same criteria all throughout the trial is consistent.

I know a man who underwent 35 radiation treatments for head n neck cancer and another man for throat cancer. There was a period of time afterwards where they said, Oh you're stable now and we thought maybe they would beat the beast. For a few months, things seemed good. But then the cancer came back in both cases and I can personally tell you it was not pretty what happened. I lived it with them, and also saw them die after we had some hope for awhile - that they would make it. These were family.

So I am saying is that the START trial selects stable patients going in, and uses that same metric on the way out. It is totally CONSISTENT all the way through. People in this condition do NOT typically stay stable for real long - that is maybe without the shot of hope n fight. They don't see residual tumors decrease they INCREASE as was the case in the two I personally Witnessed.

Another reason is that using patients where a stable condition resides makes a case for using Stimuvax in EARLIER stages of lung cancer, meaning if they detect it early a course of stimuvax may indeed help them beat the beast before it rages throughout their bodies and brains like is typical in lung cancer without a shot of hope n FIGHT.

So there ya have it- how I addressed my own doubts initially created by critics of this long process in potentially the biggest thing the cancer FIGHT is going to see in a long time coming, about a 70% chance of success at something NEVER done before.

I want to celebrate LIFE at the end of this anxiety tunnel and TEN year fighters point the way on this Mountain path (for me).

The chance of success remains about 70% in my personal opinion, on something NEVER done before. I will walk that into and OUT of tally machine with some ONTY.

yes somewhat more than I would typically put on a stock, but still some. I would not want to be out of somethig of such impact but at same time, I would not put the entire farm on it.

I will close with something I believe as a long time market student. IF that success comes in the next look coming anytime now? IF that success comes , (and I believe we have a darn good shot at it! ) you can forget about trying to time ONTY's rise. I believe it will shoot so high the G-forces will contort the faces of long time suffering longs of years n tears. That I DO believe.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQMtMk0Docc&feature=fvsr

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Yesterday's acquisition shows value in the Mountain path

2011-11-22T12:11:00.010-05:00

Market Talk:

In spite of all the macro economic woes, yesterday's $ 11 Billion acquisition of VRUS by Gilead with the stock jumping $63 a share shows there is high value in the biotech sector.

Stock Talk:

There is the one stock with symbol ONTY I have been walking the Mountain path with because I believe it has a fair to pretty good chance of doing something never done, bringing a new treatment that helps some people beat the most prevalent cause of cancer death, lung cancer.

I am watchng another in light of the VRUS acquisition yesterday. The stock is INHX and the market also took this one up to the 11 range today. What happens from here, I can't predict. INHX also has a similar hepatitis drug to that of VRUS in a phase 2b trial. There is some speculation that INHX is a target by large phama to be bought out.

Getting back to ONTY, here are my estimates of what a Stimuvax success would bring to ONTY share level:

Here are some numbers that I believe are conservative.

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in the world:

100,000 patients.
$25 K treatment per year
12% revs to ONTY.

The Total revenues to Merck could be on the order of OVER $ 2 BILLION PER YEAR.

(They are sandbagging NUMBERS with lowball estimates to underpromise and they will overdeliver)

100K x 25K x .12 = $300 M.

By that time, ONTY will be a dynamo and would probably be spending 100 Mil on exciting new pipleine etc/

Earnings: $200 M

say ONTY by that time has 60 Mil shares O/S baked into the cake.

eps: $200M/ 60 M = $3.33 per share/

Now what PE to assign?

The folowing is VERY conservative , it could be TRIPLE this number for a compound that helps a good % of people not just live a year longer, but some people YEARS, OVER FIVE YEARS, as long as they get the shots every 6 weeks.

PE = 50.

Projected Share value= 3.33 x 50

$166.50

Now if anybody argues that the patient population will not be 100,000, I will say double the PE.

Or that with China it could be 300,000 people scrambling to get on the shot of hope.

If anybody argues that Merck will not charge $25 K?

I will argue back that Roche charges $54 K for avastin or Provenge is over $90K. ONTY could charge DOUBLE $25 K , but $25 K is conservative.

and then a kicker is that Stimuvax survivors are accumulative OVER the YEARS. (A Stimuvax Phase 2 study has stage III people living TEN years on the shots, given once every six weeks now.)

Thus I so hereby project that the impact to ONTY share level is to become a TRIPLE DIGIT stock on Stimuvax success. The human impact would be astounding. Considering that ONTY owns 100% of what is considered by some experts to be the "next generation" of Stimuvax with both a cellular and antibody response, the value of ONTY shares seems quite undervalued at today's level even with some risk. In my view ONTY should be fairly valued at about $22 a share right now. If it were to be bought out on a stimuvax success, I could not see negotiations starting at anything under $50 a share.

So there ya have it, my take, for your less than 2 cents paid for.

ONTY may be well worth the risk of the Mountain path in some on even a further hint of Stimuvax success.

That's the way I roll.

Watching INHX too, it looks interesting... Does it to large Pharma?

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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The Super DUD committee fails ? Vote them out.

2011-11-21T12:08:00.005-05:00

The so called super committe could not agree on a debt reduction plan to trim $1.5 Billion over ten years. It was a simple math problem that should have been worked out with coordination and compromise, negotiations and statesmanship. However, these idiots we have in there now are too filled with themselves and their own BS dogma to work.

I say VOTE them ALL out.

Here they are:

http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/11/news/economy/debt_committee_members/index.htm

(but personally, I blame moreso.... the republicans)
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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Is The United States of Europe coming ?

2011-11-14T11:45:00.034-05:00

Seems like ... The European nations need a bailout fund for eurozone countries paid for by a new Eurozone level tax on business and individuals in each Eurozone country.

To do this they could unite under a new constitution like the United Stated Of Europe, with a capital and a governing body, and an ability to tax each particpating "state".

If a country does not want to be part of it, boot them out of the eurozone and let them fend for themselves under their own currency. This would only work if Germany and France participate. Would England join the consortium?

The political will seems to be lacking coupled with nationalistic tendencies within each country so it all seems like an unprobable future. Thus, the euro seems at high risk.

Perhaps they will come up with something looser than the above, printing euros to bail out indebted banks and countries with sovergn debt. However, the issue remains a conundrum until they take some big step.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Waiting on "Two Words" to change the world for fighters

2011-11-05T18:44:00.026-04:00

I estimate that the Stimuvax global trial being run by Merck Serona is in the 58th month and it is now in the 6 th month since full enrollment of 1,476 patients with Stage 3 lung cancer. The fighters in the trial have a 2 out of 3 chance of being in the Stimuvax arm vs the control group that get a placebo. All patients receive the best standard of care and remain in the trial until they progress. Yes, it is a crying shame in my view that some people have to get the placebo to satisfy the scientists; But that is the only perceived way they can come up with a comparison against the baseline that will satisfy the FDA that Stimuvax is safe and effective.

Effective in treating the most prevalent cause of cancer death in the world. The beast of all cancers.

Stimuvax, is on track, fast appoaching the next look of the data when 529 events happen. This can't be timed exactly, nor should it.. The longer the trial goes on, the better. However, The ONTY CEO reported that it is anticipated that large Pharma Merck KGaA will be reporting the results of the data collection in the first Quarter, next year.

The following is the Survival chart of two phase 2 BLP-25 (Stimuvax) trials already run and there are ten year survivors still on their shots every six weeks.

Do you get what I am putting down here tonight?

http://watch.ctv.ca/news/latest/cancer-vaccine/#clip194521

The short skeptics claim that the Phase 2 was cherry picked with 10% more healthy patients in the BLP-25 trial. But the updated long term results in one trial shows about a 50 % long term survival.   The short case doesn't add up in my view.   But after the fact studies with a 10% variation do not make a case for cherry picking, just more hedge hack short mumbo jumbo to me.

Then there is a growing awareness of some fighters in the Phase 3 Stimuvax trial on the shots over FOUR years and going strong.

http://www.ronreyn.com/RR/RR-NEWS.htm

There are others too..

We are getting close folks. With great gratitude we should be thankful for some that are making the ultimate sacrifice in advancing the science.

We soon may see a new treatment that adapts a person's own immune t fighter cells to target cancer growth inside their body. And yet it is almost absurd and odd that this amazing story of science, fortitude, persistance and endurance - has not gotten out to the masses ( yet). If they succeed, it will and when it does - watch out. There would be a Celebration over something never done before, like we have not seen in a very long time/

Those that "know" , those that are aware of what's at stake are waiting.

The others? They go about their daily routine unaware, some have family members dying of the cancer and the professionals don't even know. The best kept secret out there.

But we wait on two words that change everything.

"it works".

Stock watchers, watch one stock if that happens... ONTY.

"and the people will celebrate on the fight and life of the matter as warriors take the Mountain and the naysays scatter.

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It is important to get it right, I am not saying this is a sure thing, a slam dunk or anything of that nature. Many others have tried and failed in the final assessment. That is why ONTY is sitting in single digit share levels, lack of believers, fence sitters, "unaware", and naysaying short skeptics. I will give the short devils their due when they claim not everything is understood about the mechanism of action (moa). But the purpose of the trial is clearly stated, to show survival benefit. That START is now in the 58th month with a typical mean time survival of anywhere between 13 and 22 months  may be a sign that something very different is happening in the fight and life of the matter. I say right here n now that the numbers seem to indicate anywhere from a fair to pretty good chance that something astounding is on the way. Prepare ... Here is a theory that may just be right headed...

Theory of "some" :

Further DD? Go to www.oncothyreon.com and check out the next generation of cancer shield compounds in the pipeline. My view is ONTY is poised for growth and an investment in "some" ONTY shares will be enough if they succeed in any - and all have unique properties that are interesting indeed. If ONTY longs of many years are any indication, those who have waited with due diligence may soon see much higher valuations in their stock.

I have already run through the numbers here. I see double digit and later triple digit share levels for ONTY "if" Stimuvax comes through in partnership with lead Pharma Merck KGaA of Germany and their division EMD Serona here in the US. There will be serious strategic negotiations for large Pharma to get into partnership with ONTY's 100% owned next generation vaccine called ONT -10.

Listen to ONTY's Dr. Scott Peterson about Stimuvax and ONT 10 ..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1n5p9xyx068

Yes. it's a little jargoned up but pick up the key takeaways like cellular and antibody responses from ONT 10 with potential to be an improved version in a next generation vaccine.

OK, will there ya have it. If this works out, the beauty is that all it takes is some , no need to put the farm on it all. Just be happy. Prepare, train, treat others  right eventhough the rest of the world already shit the bed - and walk the Mountain path with some ONTY, if YOU dare or  not. It's coming due soon 'nuff. If "it works" like some signs are pointing to ? A SEA OF MASS AWARENESS is going to hit the world like a tsnumai.

One last word, if short selling ONTY ? I'd say get circumspect about that.

NEVER, EVER, sell SHORT something we call the Shot  of Hope and FIGHT where the numbers favor the LONG side.

LIFE trumps ALL.

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Fire on the mountain run boys run ! park it in that chair, ol devil and Johnny said I'll show you how it's done!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GrnsiQu2soI&feature=related

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Stock talk: Friday wrap up, long ONTY and then there are "the rest""

2011-11-04T14:45:00.016-04:00

Market Talk:

More of the same on eurozone. Greece is in, Greece is out, back in - blah, blah blah.

Stock talk:

I don't have a lot of time to explain but will close the week with saying look what happened to mdvn on a 5 month reported advantage for castrate resistant prostrate cancer. nice progress ! and mdvn surged up over 23 points yesterday in one day..

This I say. ONTY's small molecule drug PX 866 has properties that may make it a dynamo in the arsenal of daily oral dose to fight cancer on many fronts, wherever tumors grow. Covalent bonding in the PI3K pathway. We will see because on-going trials have been completed to determine dosing and safety and are now progresing into the Phase 2 portion to demonstrate efficacy. NOT just in ONE trial - But a broad range of cancers!

castrate resistant prostrate.
head and neck cancer
nsclc lung cancer
colon
glioblastoma multiforme

and others with and without combo with existing treatments, erbitux and taxotere too.
http://www.oncothyreon.com/clinical/px-866.html

But we all know here that Stimuvax phase 3 trial is coming to the next look of the data. If Stimuvax shows not months but YEARS advantage against the most prevalent cause of cancer death, nsclc lung cancer, what do you think ONTY is gonna do? especially with the advent of ONTY's second generation ONT 10 . I will post a link later for further DD.

ONTY is the one stock I will walk long with some on the Mountain path.

Others:

JVA , Starbucks announced that they will soon be offering Kcups by Green Mountain coffee roasters in supermarkets everywhere... And who provides K cups ? (I don't know if there is a business connection with JVA in this Starbucks deal). (update 11/8/11 sold jva to hold dry powder).

NM, I am in some NM here in the 3's. I like the dividend/

more on this later.

remember, in my view there is ONE stock and then all the others.

LIFE trumps ALL.

dry powder too. ..
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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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Why ONTY ?

2011-10-03T09:50:00.004-04:00

Market / Stock Talk:

I plan on this being my final post for awhile on the overall market. After stating my position that there is only one stock, at this juncture, I care to be long with - I am going to let whatever may come, play out. I ran the numbers. I get staggering impact and numbers coming if the Stimuvax Phase 3 trial for treating lung cancer is successful. As time goes on and as the START trial wraps up, I believe the numbers well favor the long side in holding ONTY.

If interested here is some further info to run some DD on:

Go to http://www.oncothyreon.com/

Listen to the latest Oncothyreon brief. Check out survival Chart of Stage III lung cancer patients...

Go to the CDC site and check out the lung cancer statistics. You will find this...
CDC:
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"Lung Cancer Statistics

More people in the United States die from lung cancer than any other type of cancer. This is true for both men and women. For more information, visit Cancer Among Men and Cancer Among Women.
In 2007 (the most recent year numbers are available)—

203,536 people in the United States were diagnosed with lung cancer, including 109,643 men and 93,893 women.*†
158,683 people in the United States died from lung cancer, including 88,329 men and 70,354 women.*†"

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I leave it to the reader to connect the dots of why I say some ONTY for the Mountain path and endure.

Two Independently run Phase 2 trials in Stage 3 lung cancer patients :

Stimuvax shows a BETTER than 2 to 1 life extending survival advantage in Stage III lung cancer patients BOTH in the mean 17 month advantage AND LONG term survivors of YEARS n YEARS on the shot of Hope n FIGHT every six weeks.

THAT remains FACT based on Phase 2 results of TWO trials.

I believe there is strong evidence of a celebration coming relatively soon and this issue will be like no other out there The evidence points to a strong chance of success and impact coming in spite of what short sellers are putting out there. Many years n tears through the struggle of the FDA maze of trials is wrapping up with the Phase 3 START global trial.

Read further below if you want to see why I wait on a celebration of the Life n Fight of the matter in the familes of people all around the world needing a good FIGHT.

From 2009.. and now ten year fighters

http://watch.ctv.ca/news/latest/cancer-vaccine/#clip194521

Evidence is pointing to a new beginning with the end of "START" ...

Never underestimate the POWER of the second chance.

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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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High Volatility in markets - but WHY I stay long ONTY.

2011-09-30T10:21:00.007-04:00

Market Talk:

If it's not Europe , it's a slowdown in China, or a DOJ investigation in Chinese stocks, or something else... Then we get a piece or two of data that points to a slow recovery and no double dip recession and the market rebounds on a day or two of optimism, only to be taken down by shorts or bears piling on the next. Metals and commodities are getting slammed, but many stocks that have good runs are seeing profit taking. Put it all together and it's a bear market. When will it turn? Seems like the notion that a slow recovery can stall into a double dip recession is prevailing in market sentiment. The Fed is doing a Twist program with short and long term bonds that is supposed to help dividend paying stocks, but this notion seems faulty in a corrective market.

Well, whatever notion anybody hangs their hat on, bull , bear or indifferent, there's no denying that markets are volatile.

Stock Talk:

Many retail investors are at their wits end about how to deal with these volatile markets.

There is one notion that I will stay long with. LIFE trumps ALL.

There is one issue, ONTY, that I will stay long with on this fact that "the market" has not yet grasped , but I believe new data is coming to back it up.

Well, this is my position based on FACT:

Stimuvax shows a BETTER than 2 to 1 life extending survival advantage in Stage III lung cancer patients BOTH in the mean 17 month advantage AND LONG term survivors of YEARS n YEARS on the shot of Hope n FIGHT every six weeks.

THAT remains FACT to me, as ONTY long, based on Phase 2 results of TWO trials.

Soon, the globally based lung cancer trial called START, will be wrapped up by large Pharma Merck KGaA. For the ONTY long, there are TEN year survivors still on their shots every six weeks that point to something I call "Mount Impact" , here on the Mountain path..

Yes, the market remains volatile.

I will endure the Mountain path in some ONTY, long.

A celebration of LIFE is coming in my future telescope and it will be like no other in the entire market.

As time marches on into the next look of the START lung trial data, the market is going to start looking forward in anticipation. I believe ONTY should not be in single digits, it should be about $22 a share right now.

I ran the numbers frontwards and backwards. Looked at the ONTY pipeline...

If Stimuvax succeeds like I think it will , like the evidence of living well fighters on the shots points to, ONTY is not just headed for double digits..

I see ONTY as a coming TRIPLE digit stock.

For me? It's NOT just about that! It has to do with being , staying long in something coming I believe has high impact to help those in need of a good fight, TO FIGHT, using their own resources within their bodies. It's about a coming celebration of Life n FIGHT for these people's families.
I stay long ONTY and FIGHT too.

The Second chance is a powerful force.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzXMFdvJ6Tk

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Positions:

Long, ONTY

Dry Powder
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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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New vaccine against the deadliest of all cancers teaches the body to defend itself while avoiding the side effects of more traditional therapies.

2011-09-09T11:05:00.014-04:00

Market Talk:

Today is September 9, 2011. Oh how much has transpired since the tragic and senseless act on 91101. America fights and survives, but do we thrive?

Around the world, economies are troubled following an American ecomomic recession of 2008. The european's are following suit however the countries are divided with a stronger Germany not willing too fully participate in formulating a recovery plan. It sometimes appears that the future of the the Euro denomination is at stake with the result being each country reverts back to their own currency. This is largely why Gold has reached an all time high and appears to have strong support as the European Central banks have stocked up.

That said about Gold the chart looks parabolic. Funny, that people are also flocking to the US dollar as safe haven. WHY? Because even though we have our troubles - America remains a shining light in a sea of unknowns.

Today, even with all of these troubles and worries I want to post about something coming that I believe people all around the world will soon be celebrating- LIFE. This is my opinion and assessment, the way I see it playing out my future telescope. I am a numbers man and the numbers are screaming that something BIG is coming within a few months time. The next look of the data in the final and global phase 3 clinical trial of Stimuvax trial is coming soon.

Stock Talk:

My recent posts here have been focused like a laser on ONE stock. A little known biotech company in Seattle called Oncothyreon. While history has transpired through 18 years this company has followed a mission like a beacon of light focused on the future.

The FUTURE is almost HERE !

Reported in Scientific American back in 2006...

Lung Cancer

New vaccine against the deadliest of all cancers teaches the body to defend itself while avoiding the side effects of more traditional therapies.

If you are still with me here, scroll down and read more...

But before you do listen up for moment.

This I say...

We are fighting wars and a world malaise has overtaken sentiment. Our politicians are in deadlock , roadblock, and election mode.

BUT- When an issue comes along that shows efficacy against something common, a deadly killer, to people across the globe??

There will be a celebration of joy on the LIFE of the matter.

"The matter" is that a lot of people from the earlier Phase 2 trials are doing something... They are LIVING ten years! and doing well on the shots every six weeks. The Shot of Hope n FIGHT is what we call it here.

Read this again..

Stimuvax- " teaches the body to defend itself while avoiding the side effects of more traditional therapies."

Ten year fighters on the shots point the way for me.

Stay the Mountain path, endure is my take away.

I see a celebration on many fronts coming soon.

never, ever underestimate the power of second chances...

http://watch.ctv.ca/news/latest/cancer-vaccine/#clip194521

I say again, for me? In this market?

Some ONTY stock
and Dry powder.

If interested scroll down and read more.
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ALL in my humble opinion, scroll down and read more..

This site does NOT make Buy / Sell recommendations.
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