11:00 am PST:

GOOG

If GOOG can break 631, it is going to head towards 643 in a hurry. If the trend line in the 640s also breaks, we’re going to see 650s very fast. From there, I am not sure if I would hold a position due to the risk of some backtesting of the fibs we’re currently in the middle of. Just wouldn’t be worth the risk.

10:52 am PST:

GS:

About a month ago, we talked about watching for the low 150s to break on GS for that gap area, which would probably result in a rise to the fib and trend line above it. Over the last week we’ve gotten that trend line hit and gap fill. Now if that trend line and fib don’t hold as support (currently the fib is not, but the trend line seems to be), then we could get a drop back down to the 150s.

10:39 am PST:

SPX EW Counts:

So I believe there’s a good chance we could head towards 1300s longer term to cap off the current wave. I brought this count out about 1 year ago, I still believe we are in Primary 2 wave up, which is in an ABC expanded flat correction. We are in the 3 of 5 of the C of that expanded flat correction, and we may have already started the 4 of 5, which I think can get us a drop back to the mid 1100s. Then the 5 of 5 should top us out close to about 1300 to get us a full 5 wave clean count for Primary wave 2. I have not liked ANY of the counts I have seen that had seen us topping out at 1220. I thought we would consolidate below here for a lot longer instead of rising to this current point, but in terms of EW counts, the current movement is nice, and we are definitely near a short term top. There is a chance we could still head a little higher on this 3 of 5 wave though, so there is still risk involved in shorting the market at the current levels. I’ll keep you guys updated either way.

9:43 am PST:

SPX 6 month:

There’s a good chance we could gap down a bit here to the lower 1200s and hit the next support level. However, the market needs to break below the current wedge/coil it has been doing for the last two days. Any break back above that trend line is a dangerous sign for anybody shorting.

Idan:

12:01am
LVS… what a company! what a stock! It has shot up over 3 times it’s value in literally 1 year. However, we all know the rule… for a sustainable rally, YOU NEED consolidation.

There is a chance that LVS topped out friday (with a nice massive hammer topping candle on the daily). However, yesterday, we got a nice rally in the stock, which might throw you off.  Looking back at the action though, i noticed we topped right at the 61.8% retrace.

I believe taking the stock short with a stop above the 61.8% retrace (or above 54.20 to be safe) is a good trade:
Here’s the 1 minute to show you what i mean:

Remember this is a risky play.. due to LVS’s volatility, the stop has to be more than 2-3% higher.

10:53am
Unfortunately I’m stopped out of my VMW with a 5% loss on the OPTIONs… it looks like it’s very strong today so i don’t want to re-enter the position. 

12:02am
Eur/USD breaking down some more as we open here… i’m becoming more and more convinced that I called the top 3 days ago… if we break under 1.38 we can get a very strong push lower (strengthening the dollar) and with that a reversal in the S&P for a short while. I’m holding ANW long, VMW puts. 

12:01am
On Friday I went long ANW again, hoping this stock, which has been performing really badly is forming a nice bottoming formation.  While it’s still uncertain, whether or not ANW is bottoming, one thing we know, is that it broke out Friday of a descending channel (first phase of a potential bottom). Here’s the daily chart below:

12:53pm
Eur/USD potentially continuing a reversal of trend right here.. as it’s dumping pretty strongly for the first time in a while. We will see 1.40 and 1.38 as the strongest resistances. Technically speaking 1.38 has to break before we can assume a reversal, but for now the strength in the dollar should put a lot of pressure on commodities:

12:20pm
USO i now forming a bearish flag on the 1 minute.. it looks like it could be ready for another leg down…. I think it’s around time to go short a lot of the weaker names right here. I want to also see the SPY end this day with a reversal candle to be sure.

I’m still holding on to my VMW dec puts.

1:29pm
Eur/USD 1 minute showing a possible top as we are getting a very nice H&S formation… is this the beginning of a reversal?

12:45pm
Both CRM and VMW have topping candles on them already, despite a positive market. I strongly believe this is one of the last moves up before some type of strong correction (though i might be wrong), I’m adding puts on to stocks that underperform. I have VMW dec 75 puts, and will look to enter CRM soon too.

1:10am
I believe that there isn’t much more upside to go before a push lower, i’ll be looking to get short some overbought stocks tomorrow.. we’ll look at a list tomorrow but here’s one stock i’ll be looking to short:

CRM on the daily.. very overbought.. i like the fact that CRM did not reach a double top yet, hopefully you can short here with a stop 2-3% above the resistance.

3:03pm
We are still waiting to see whether or not we break to new highs or still hold resistance.  Vix collapsing, capitulation might be a buying point for VXX.

2:30pm
Some selling off as we are very overbought and finally the catalyst that was suppose to shove us to new high son the dow jones failed… this is why I was too worried to go long… I’m holding my VMW short.. and will look to trail the stop soon.

2:19pm
FOMC meeting: Keep interest rates unchanged for extended period of time, adding $600 billion + to stimulate the economy in QE. Economic outlook unchanged… but they are worried about housing.

1:29pm
FOMC meeting at 2:15pm today… we are looking to get more clarity on how much the Fed is spending on their balance sheets to keep this economy afloat and if they are going to let go anytime soon. EUR/USD just spiked 15 minutes ago.. no clue why. 

1:03pm
MJNA down about 18% on the fact that California’s result on legalization of marijuana was not to legalize it. 54/46%. 

12:59pm
I guess it was pretty obvious to get a sell off after the elections due to both Dow Jones hitting double top resistance and the fact that we were rallying toward elections on hopes that Republicans overtake congress…. but with Republicans only taking over the house and still leaves democrats holding the senate, the stock market is not as hopeful. Though i truly believe the house will make keeping bush tax cuts a priority. 

12:35am
Well now it’s confirmed that GOP takes House… but won’t be taking majority at Senate. What does that mean for stocks today? post below.

3:05pm
I circled the different support levels that I see as worth buying into CEL (remember to cut your position into 4 hits). CEL has almost a 10% dividend, and with the Dow Jones hitting resistance, I would like to hold a dividend stock (just in case we get a pullback).  The support levels are the 20 SMA daily, and the fib retracements, the 50% being the strongest of them all in this case. As the stock falls, the dividend yield in percentage increases unless they cut the dividend. Here’s the daily:

3:01pm
Dow Jones at DOUBLE TOP resistance today. 

2:53pm
EBAY will probably get another 1-2.5 points (3-6% rally) before it goes in to a major push lower.. Take a look at how overbought this stock is… with the megaphone formation on the weekly, I look to short the stock at the resistance line:

1:13pm
Can everyone see VMW? Look at the daily action.. I can see the H&S is forming very nicely.. might be worth a short today with a tight stop (due to reversal on the daily).  I’m short at 77.40, stop at 78.50.

1:06pm
Another overbought that i consider shorting is TTM but only if it falls below $28, an obvious support level. If the short can break $28 I think the stock can start a nice correction lower (which i want to be a part of). By shorting right under $28, your stop will be as close as can be – maybe as close as $28.05 or $28.10 (you choice). Here’s the hourly:

12:52pm
QSFT is my next very overbought stock, currently the daily has a nice reversal candle, I think it’s worth a short right here, maybe enter only 1/3 of a position and look to enter the others if QSFT rallies any higher. But i think this stock can see a 10% correction soon:

12:21pm
XLF not fairing so well despite SPY being up 0.7%, but I don’t think the SPY could hold it’s gains if the XLF starts breaking down. 

11:46am
XLF 60 minute still in a triangle formation. anybody got any trades involving the XLF? I think it’s a buy if we get above triangle resistance. Here’ the chart.

12:01am
There’s no doubt, today will shape the markets in a few ways but let’s stick to the charts and look at some trades:

1. SPY 1 minute shows that $118.65-118.70 is a strong resistance and support level.. This is the level you should be looking at for intraday trades today on both long and short opportunities. Go long if we break back above it.. or short it with a stop above it.

2. Need a list of high yield dividend stocks? Take a look at the following:

AGNC, CIM, RSO, NLY, HTS, ANH, FORTY, MFA, TNK, NZT, CEL

I like CEL a lot, but it needs to pull back first. If you want some exposure to the israeli economy, it’s a great buy with almost 10% dividend yeild. If you wait for a pull back you’ll definitely get an annual yield of at least 10% if not 11-12%. As stock prices fall, the dividend yield moves higher unless the dividend is cut (keep that in mind).

3. I think it’s time to look at UNG as a potential buy. With a nice strong push lower yesterday due to a hit of the 20 SMA on the daily, it might be the push we need to get in on this ETF. This ETF has been beat and a shove up to the high single digits or even low teens is very possible in the next 2 years. I’ll be looking at this stock more intensely tomorrow.

4. RIMM fell as we expected it would (forming the right shoulder of the inverse H&S it has) -> look at yesterday’s post for more details. We expect some more downside to $55 at least.

5. Alerts & Analytics is making amazing trades right now… we updated our track record. Sign Up for JUST $49.99/month ($2 a day)

Trades to look out for Alerts & Analytics:
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And an Interesting play on NFLX!

1:09pm
So the SPY is obviously forming another reversal candle on the daily. Here’s the 1 minute.. if we break back below that red line we will fill th gap support, and i think we can see a total momentum change.



1:01pm
And here we go AMZN is going to be a possible shorting candidate as it’s breaking back down below the ascending resistance (as i said it would last week):

8:00am
I am purchasing more MJNA as we get closer to Nov 2 – prop 19. Also nov 2nd is elections – hope everyone’s voting!

12:25am
We are staring at RIMM’s gigantic push up after we got rumors that RIMM might be a potential takeover candidate. With Rimm’s gigantic rise to $58 former gap resistance, the daily now is starting to look like an inverse H&S formation. With a small right inverse shoulder yet to be built, i expect a pull back from the $58 level and then a shove back up. I believe buying the breakout of $58 will be a good trade, but you can also preemptively buy Rimm on the pull back as long as you have tight stops below strong support levels such as $55 support.. etc..

Market couldn’t be more boring today. All the key leveraged ETFs we monitor dropped in volume by 30 to 90 percent compare to their 30-day average volume. Commodity stocks rallied though. Names such as CF (one of our shorts) and JRCC (one of our longs) rallied to 2 to 4 percent over today’s trading session.

We hope you have a good weekend. To start it off, read this interesting article from EWI relating to Fed’s manipulation of the market.

The Fed and “Plunge Protection Team”: Are They Manipulating Stocks?

1:35pm
I’m waiting for AMZN to break 161.50 or so.. but i think it’ll be my next big short candidate if it breaks down the ascending line that use to be resistance, now support. 

12:19pm
Still looking forward to a short opportunity on GE if it breaks down that $16 level on it’s H&S on the 4 hourly. You can see HOW STRONG that $16 level is.. and i’m guessing as soon as it breaks we’ll get a very nice push lower:

12:16pm
Visa didn’t quite hit the $75 back test of it’s breakout.. but it was close enough for a buy.. now trading up 3 points higher! I love this stock longerterm. 

12:13pm
Buying in to some more MJNA about 9200 shares… looking forward to some movement november 2nd – prop 19. 

11:27am
GS 1 minute showing a potential H&S formation with a necklin at 162… this could be an intraday play for today:

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1:19pm
CF is going to be my next big short due to it’s overboughtness. Alerts & Analytics shorted it a week ago and made a small profit but I think it will fall much further this time.

1:13pm
Visa is taking a dump today.. thank god i took half off at 79+… and now i’ll be looking to get back in at $75. With a stop right below. 

1:10pm
BA hit ascending resistance, and with some downside pressure in the market, it might be worth a short if it breaks $70 support.. Here’s the daily:

12:39pm
Looking a lot like a reversal type day for a lot of stocks tat were doing well. VMW short is in the game here.. and I think this stock is getting ready to breakdown it’s H&S formation i mentioned earlier…. AMZN might be getting ready to be a short.. i’d wait for AMZN to break back down below the former ascending resistance.. use that current support as an entry point:

1:01am
I think you guys all know what i’m thinking when i look at VMW… and that stock has already doubled with no real consolidation from it’s low. Clearly: H&S, neckline at $71.. if you decide to short prematurely make sure you have a relatively strong resistance above so that you can put a stop, otherwise.. i’m hoping for a breakdown to enter short.

My guess this stock plummets soon unless the market hits new highs. We just hit the 20SMA… and i think taking a short tomorrow is what i might do on a DOJI or Reversal Candle Day.