StockTock

Focal Equity Here We Come

Idan — Sat, 13 Mar 2010 05:42:46 +0000

Over the weekend you will see the remarkable transition from Stocktock into Focalequity:

Become a fan of Focal Equity on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Focal-Equity/313676389278?ref=ts

Focal equity is a merger between stocktock and khrnostock and will contain both the intraday commentary blog and a few services:

1. Focal Equity’s ETF Pro, which is brought to you by our very own Woo!
2. Focal Equity’s Alerts and Analytics, where you get the trades my hedge fund would be making via emails a few times a week!
3. Focal Equity Live’s Trading (coming soon), which will include LIVE daytrading videos of me with my traders. So you can follow me right when i make the trades.

The intra-day commentary will stay the same with minor changes. Hope you will like the site. I love this community!

Intraday Commentary ~ 03/12/2010

Idan — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 05:01:14 +0000

1:39pm
I am looking into buying right here some DXD (double short the dow) based on my belief that we have seen a top in the markets as long as we don’t break into the megaphone formation.k I’m going to buy it here 12% position at $27.66 with a stop at $27.35 for the time being. I will hold this into the weekend unless i already have profits and then i will take some off the table.

4:40am

The S&P and Nasdaq look bullish, according to them, we are at/over double top resistance are going higher. But the dow (the index we actually trust the most in chartology) is not as bullish. It is not at the double top resistance yet, but more importantly, it has not broken back above the megaphone formation support line (now resistance)… This means that maybe tomorrow or monday could be the first day of a stronger move lower. That is very possible. But if we close 2 days in a row above my red support line then I expect at least 2 more weeks of upside. Here’s the daily Dow:

Intraday Commentary ~ 03/11/2010

Idan — Thu, 11 Mar 2010 05:01:43 +0000

Woo:

Here’s an updated 1 month:

I’ll have to redraft this for you guys in a bit. This 5 count isn’t necessarily perfect either and my 1 wave (1140s start) is completely cut off now, so this will have to be revised into a 2-3 month chart. We need a 1140 break to even consider a short position. I wouldn’t take a long position until we break into new highs, and even then, only for an intraday scalp where stops are raised immediately to lock in profits.

Idan:

We are working very hard this week to provide you with a new site starting March 15, 2010 called Focal Equity.

Focal equity is a merger between stocktock and khrnostock and will contain both the intraday commentary blog and a few services:

The intra-day commentary will stay the same with minor changes. Hope you will like the site. I love this community!

Intraday Commentary ~ 03/10/2010

Idan — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 05:01:55 +0000

3:22pm
Wynn is now on our short list… it might still have a few more % points up but taking a small short here, and adding to it later seems like a good idea to me. This stock is so incredibly overvalued by any metric possible, and is now above it’s bullinger bands. With strong triangle resistance in the $72-74 range I feel like we have a good idea of where to put a stop if need be. I am going to wait one more UP day on this stock before I go short (hopefully somewhere in the $71.80-72 range.

Here’s the daily:

For those holding CLNE short, the earnings report is coming out today at 4:30 pm EST.

Intraday Commentary ~ 03/09/2010

Idan — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 05:01:57 +0000

11:06am
Take a good look at GLD (Gold ETF). I mentioned how i expected 112 be a stopping point for this ETF despite what the market does. I said a good short there was possible, but now we have a beautiful ionverse H&S starting to form… 107 on GLD could be a nice buying point where the 50 and 20 SMA nicely intersect.

Keep An Eye On The Monthly/Weekly Indicators

Shanky — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 15:49:39 +0000

I have been using the weekly SPX chart as a nice guide that has kept me in the bulls camp most of the way up (and at times it has made me more unpopular than others) . The 60 and 30m charts are not worth a hoot these days (as demonstrated last week) for anything. The daily charts (which I live and die by) can remain overbought or oversold for extended periods of time. Since we are approaching a major top you need to back it out a little and begin to include the monthly and weekly charts in your analysis.

The trend is UP. No one can question that (you can question fundamentals and why the heck it is up all you want – I sure do). I am a firm believer in market manipulation and until something really bad happens “they” will continue to take every advantage they have to run this puppy up, up, up with no regard for the consequences to the broader public. The low volume ramp jobs will continue till something stops them. Get used to it. As long as there is a an extremely lose monetary policy, tons of QE money, rates are low, accounting gimmicks (that is being nice) and a total lack of regulation there are few headwinds for this market.

This is not a normal market. As a trader you have to play current momentum and leave the big picture out of it. If it is not within arms reach, don’t try to touch it. Use your indicators and play the trend. Do not try to fight it. Even if you think the world is heading into some massive depression with all sorts of really bad things to come (like I do), that does not matter to your trading this week. If the trend is up, play it that way till the trend turns. Keep your stops tight and be nimble. Think this week only, not next week or next year. Arms reach.

Weekly Indicator Chart

Here is the Weekly chart I have come to love. (Not sure how it will view in the post but it can be viewed better HERE.) First notice the TL supporting RSI and the 50 line. Nothing bearish happens till this trend is busted. It is my hope that this lower RSI will set the divergence needed to finally set the top. RSI can run for a while (see the yellow box above the red TL). RSI5 looks like it is going to possibly turn here and hold it’s divergence. F Sto may be wanting to turn. S Sto is not blinking yet and can run some more. Watch for the MACD hist to put in a green candle and then to reverse. Farther down is CCI, I’d like to see that divergence line hold here. On the SPXA50 if ou notice almost every peak in the market has occurred with a top in this indicator (especially at or above 400).

Looking at the TA in the chart, SPX has taken out it’s upper bear market TL (I think this will come into play a lot on the way down and it will take an impulsive 3rd wave to get back under it). I have tageted the 1215 to 1220 area for some time as a possible ultimate top (at this time I do not think it gets there – I’m currently looking for a double top in the 1150 area). This area has the 200ma at 1226, the gap near 1210, the 61.8% retracement at 1229 and finally the C=A fib at 1214 (at this time I am not prescribing to the H&S target some are calling for in the 1295 area). The two TA forms I am entertaining (both are in their final phases) are the ABC corrective or the A-E rising wedge formation.

Now, this chart will not time the ST moves I discussed earlier. This is a bigger momo indicator. This chart will miss the perfect top, but it will identify/confirm the true top when it hits., thus the final trend change from up to down (and down it will go – I’m speculating lower lows).

A monthly chart can be found here. I think the RSI5 has topped on it, but it really needs some help getting rolled over. This may signal some more upside or at least churning to a top.

Good luck to all. Let me know if you have any questions.

Intraday Commentary ~ 03/08/2010

Idan — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 05:01:17 +0000

CLNE reports March 10, 2010 which means that for those who don’t want to take any risk, you should take any downward action and enjoy the profits. IF we do get some 3-4% down-moves ahead of it’s earnings i will take 50% off and stop out the rest.

I don’t see any bearish signs on the SPY anymore, we broke right back into the support area (now making it resistance), and while 1140 is some resistance, and lets not forget the double top at 1150, unless we get some type of mid-day reversal i’m going to be bullish biased. I suggest you stay with individual names though, GS looks very bullish now that it has broken out above it’s former H&S neckline. A break back down below the neckline at 165 ish would make me bearish again.

Intraday Commentary ~ 03/05/2010

Idan — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 05:01:24 +0000

Idan 2:36pm EST
I am taking my additional short on CLNE as we are up at my target for this rally at 19.47-19.50… This time i’ll be shorting twice as much bringing my average cost price to 19.28, and I am going to put a stop around 20 assuming this market does decide to go higher, which is what it looks like.

Woo:

9:28 am PST:

1 month SPX

Idan:

12:34am
The uup or dollar ETF is showing some slightly bearish signs here, as it may be forming a H&S formation. You can see very nicely on a daily that the target of $24 from the inverse H&S was practically reached but now we have a H&S on the 60 minute (shown below). That said, notice how the last push down, or the right point of the neckline is a little higher than the left side, which makes the H&S not as strong usually.

Goldman Sachs (GS) comes back for a kiss

Craig — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 04:08:59 +0000

Looks like a Kiss of Death setup to me. Market seems to rallying the stock on hopes the gov’t will not institute the Volcker rule or some other form of financial regulation that restricts prop trading. Recent focus on healthcare has many traders thinking the gov’t may do nothing. I think that’s doubtful. I’m going to side with Meredith Whitney who is adamant that major bank regulation is coming through the pipes. Also, Goldman is risky in the sense that we have no idea how they make money. I mean, we know they make money by being smarter than everyone else, but even the smartest guys in the room can be on the wrong side of a trade. Does anyone know their exposure to sovereign debt, particularly Greece? If the stock rallies above the neckline and holds, I will have to reevaluate, but this chart looks like a classic kiss of death.

Intraday Commentary ~ 03/04/2010

Idan — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 05:01:57 +0000

2:18pm
Ford (F) might be getting a little ahead of itself right now… i would like to take a short around 12.90 if i can get it, with a stop in the 13.05-13.10 range.

3:12am
I still am unsure of what is going to happen in the general market (SPY) in the next couple of days, but the SPY has tried to constantly break back into the megaphone formation and yet has failed. We keep getting DOJI/Spinning candles and unless we get a massive rally in the next day or two, i’m going to favor the downside here. Here’s a daily SPY (retests are circles):

That doesn’t mean i’m playing the SPY at all. In fact we are up already on our short on CLNE, which i think could see some major downside. We went short yesterday at approximately $18.78 and can put a profitable stop tomorrow if it continues it’s trend lower. CLNE also broke the $18.60 support between the double top formation, which is a great sign for the bears. I would like to see more downside on this name tomorrow.