Stone Fox Capital Advisors

Covestor Model Up 17% in Less Then 6 Weeks

2010-03-12T15:51:00.003-06:00

In less then 6 weeks the Covestor Model is already reporting strong results. The model is already up 17% versus a little under 5% for the market. Not bad considering the model was down 4% on its first day of February 3rd. A day the market dropped over 3% so not great timing there. Also remember that the model is up over 150% since it began in Dec 2008, but CVIM only counts the record since I

Chart of the Day: AerCap Holdings

2010-03-11T12:34:00.003-06:00

AerCap (AER) has one amazing chart over the last couple of months. The merger with Genesis Lease (GLS) should be finalized on the 25th reducing the risk and finally allowing the stock to move forward.Hard to understand what caused the stock to collapse from $11 to $7.5 and then rebound right back to $11 today. Is it now a double top? Likely not, but it does need to consolidate the recent gains.

Trade: Bought Direxion Small Cap 3x Bear

2010-03-11T10:26:00.002-06:00

Slow to report this but yesterday we bought the Direxion Small Cap 3x Bear (TZA) in the Growth, Hedged Growth and Opportunistic Portfolios. The purchase in the Hedged and Opportunistic Portfolios amounted to nearly 10% of the portfolios though the Opportunistic purchase was just to offset the margin currently in that count bringing the net bullish investment to just 100%.TZA was purchased because

Regional Banks on Fire Today

2010-03-10T10:02:00.005-06:00

Most importantly to us, Regions Financial (RF) and Synovous Financial (SNV) our both up sharply today. For RF its clearly partly technical as they hit new 52 week highs and breakout from a double top. For SNV its like just a move with the sector today. Cramer was bullish on banks yesterday and in general the tone seems to be improving.The Opportunistic/CVIM Model is doing the best today as it has

One Year Later

2010-03-09T15:50:00.002-06:00

Being the anniversary of the Bear Market low on 3/9/09, today seems like a good day to review our performance since then.When March started last year, we were about ready to give up. So many stocks were unbelievable buys yet the market kept spiraling down. A year later we feel vindicated as all 4 portfolios have easily beat the market since we started tracking them back in 2008. The Opportunistic

Covestor Model Manager

2010-03-08T14:00:00.000-06:00

As of last week, Covestor Investment Management (CVIM or cv.im) began offering my portfolio as one of their Model Managers. This is a great opportunity to expand investors to the group that typically invests in mutual funds. It gives investors with only $5K the opportunity for individually managed accounts that in the past required at least $100k and in most cases $250K to open an account.Unlike

Earnings Preview: Dicks Sporting Goods

2010-03-08T11:54:00.005-06:00

Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS) reports before the market opens tomorrow on the 9th. In general, analysts expect them to easily surpass earnings as the cold weather drove high sales in the higher margin outerwear category. My main concern is that analysts seem completely fixated on the outerwear business that clearly benefits from snow and cold weather, but what about the golf division. The unusual

Apple Hits All Time High! Hooplah Just Starting?

2010-03-05T15:43:00.004-06:00

Incredibly Apple (APPL) hit another new all time high today. Ok, it's not really all that incredible to us considering we've suggested $300 and $1,000 [Apple to $1,000] targets during 2009.Still its very rare for a tech stock to exceed the 2000 high.Part of the reason for the jump today was just the overall market, but it didn't hurt that Cramer was pushing the stock last night on his Mad Money

Japan Paying $200/mt for Coking Coal?

2010-03-05T13:33:00.002-06:00

Amazing report if its true. Looks like Japan is having to pay up get assets such as coking coal used to make steel away from the grips of China. Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) is likely our best play with their decent supply of coking coal. Puda Coal (PUDA) is a great speculative play in China. More to come on that stock.This is the difference between coal and natural gas. China needs coal. China

Stat of the Day: ISM Services Hits 53

2010-03-03T17:16:00.002-06:00

ISM Non Manufacturing (Services) report came in at 53 today versus the 51 estimate and the 50.5 for January. In fact, most economists were likely expecting the number to dip below last month considering weak economic reports such as consumer confidence and intial jobless claims and the severe snow storms in the east.The business activity (54.8) and orders (55) suggest a V shaped recovery is

Trade: Sold 50% of Liz Caliborne

2010-03-03T12:00:00.004-06:00

Liz Claiborne (LIZ) has been a favorite stock of Stone Fox Capital for a while now. The stock was looking extended on the both the CCI and RSI measures. It was also approaching a double from October so we pruned 50% of our position in the Growth Portfolio at $7.26 leaving 2,000 shares. We'll be looking to buy that position back if the shares trade back to the 20EMA which is at 6.32 today.It's

Performance Review: Growth Portfolio Outperforming By 13.5% Annualized

2010-03-02T15:17:00.002-06:00

Just a little update on the Growth Portfolio that now has over a 20 month history. It's now up 125% over the last 12 months which is 69% more then the SP500. This leads to a 13.5% annualized return in excess of the SP500.* All below returns are actually 0.75% higher on a annualized basis then the below numbers due to our tracking system at Marketocracy.com assuming a 2%+ annual fee versus the

Phoenix Cos Blasts Through 50EMA

2010-03-02T11:48:00.005-06:00

Phoenix Cox (PNX) continues to be one of the cheapest stocks in our universe and a small holding in the Growth Portfolio. Looks like analysts are now coming out with 2010 estimates around $.50 to $.60. That's roughly a PE of 5 with the stock trading around $2.5. PNX also trades substantially below book value. Most estimate the real book value to be around $7-8 with the reported book value at $9.8

Riverbed Technology Hits New 52 Week High

2010-03-01T12:48:00.005-06:00

Riverbed Tech (RVBD) is the largest holding in our Growth Fund and the new Covestor Model. Today the Networking and Communications Industry which focuses on RVBD and F5 Networks (FFIV) is up big for an unknown reason (at least so far). Both stocks are soaring past 52 week highs.It helps to now be rolling into 2011 estimates of $1.07+ making the PE much more reasonable.The move could also be a

Stat of the Day: February ISM Inventories Continue Decline

2010-03-01T10:55:00.003-06:00

The February ISM came in at a respectable 56.5 today. This was lower then the 58.4 from January and the 57.9 expected by economists. Some suggest the weakness was due to the snow which I don't understand why the economists didn't figure that out before hand. Regardless, its still a number showing significant growth in the manufacturing sector.The impressive stat is that inventories continue to be

Sears Holdings: The Mosted Hated Stock

2010-02-26T11:41:00.004-06:00

According to this report from Bespoke Investment Group, Sears Holdings (SHLD) tops the list with Eastman Kodak (EK) and AIG as the most disliked stocks by the analyst community. Pretty impressive company to be in the same group as AIG. The contrarian in me suggests that this makes SHLD an excellent investment at these levels.SHLD reported nearly $4 in earnings per share in 2009. Considering how

Natural Gas Inventories Nearly Even with 5 Year Average

2010-02-25T10:53:00.003-06:00

After a year when Natural Gas inventories hit record levels, it might surprise people to see that the weekly report is now showing inventory levels only 0.7% above the 5 year average. In fact, the important East market is 2.4% below that average.With weak industrial demand, its likely surprising to most that storage levels are now inline with normal trends. Alot of the burn down has been due to

SP500 Bounces Above Key Technical Levels

2010-02-24T15:57:00.002-06:00

As we wrote yesterday on the Consumer Confidence report, the market drop was as technical as it was related to the supposed lack of confidence. We mentioned that the 20/250EMAs were very crucial junctures and it's not surprising to see the market drop back down to test the support before continuing the rebound.Today, we saw a solid bounce back above the support. Now any move about the 1110 -1112

$35B Jobs Bill to Only Add 250K Jobs

2010-02-24T11:31:00.003-06:00

After losing 8.4M jobs during this recession, a jobs bill that is estimated to only add 250,000 jobs seems rather worthless to pursue. After all, we're talking about a lot of rules and regulations that must be adhered to in order to qualify not to mention the accounting work that it takes to work out that numbers and track which employees do and don't qualify for these tax breaks.Mark Zandi is a

Rising Interest Rates Aren't Always Negative for Stocks

2010-02-24T10:41:00.002-06:00

It seems intuitive and the markets always seem to react as if rising rates are negative for equities and declining rates are positive for equities. As usual with the stock market, simple thinking can burn you very fast. The market is much more complex then just "Don't Fight the Fed".Go back to 2008 and question that thesis. Rates were declining and stocks were getting crushed. Why? Well its

Fast Money Doom & Gloom

2010-02-23T13:40:00.003-06:00

Fast Money is always an interesting show because it features 4 traders and its always good to know why traders are doing what there doing. When this show is as bearish as it was today during lunch, it makes Stone Fox Capital much more bullish. Especially when we are already bullish.So why were they so bearish today? Surely it was due to higher interest rates or negative earnings reports or a

Chesapeake Drilling For Oil

2010-02-23T12:41:00.005-06:00

Interesting to see Chesapeake Energy (CHK) drilling for more oil. The CEO has a great point that if they have a huge find in natural gas it will cause spot prices to decline, but if they hit it big in oil the spot prices won't be impacted. More signs of how their success in drilling has impacted the prices they sell the product since they haven't been able to provide for more outlets to absorb

Liz Claiborne: Best Upside Opportunity

2010-02-19T11:21:00.004-06:00

Liz Claiborne (LIZ) has been a favorite of Stone Fox Capital for a while now. Not sure we'd agree with the best upside pick, but possibly in the retail space. LIZ has a huge opportunity to rebound and the current retail climate is becoming more favorable. The WMT news shows signs of consumers starting to move back up the retail ladder.The 2011 EPS target of $.68 is very compelling with the stock

Terex Shows Some Potential for Growth

2010-02-18T00:28:00.000-06:00

You won't hear that in the media reports tomorrow. It'll all be about a larger loss then expected (more on that later) or blah blah this and that. In reality, Terex (TEX) continues to work through a deep and devastating recession in the heavy equipment market. One that has completely crushed end markets as revenues were down some 50% from the 2008 levels of $8.5B. At the end of the press release

Bullish Close on the SP500: Above 20EMA

2010-02-17T15:15:00.004-06:00

After a gut wrenching drop that had the SP500 near correction levels, it made a huge bounce off the 200EMA. Now today, 7 trading days later that market has reclaimed the 20EMA after taking back the 50EMA. This is very bullish action and any bounce off it the rest of the week should be bought aggressively.The chart clearly looks like it wants to at least retest the 1150 high from mid January and