Stop Loss Indonesia

5 Most Predictable Currency Pairs

noreply@blogger.com (annisa) — Sun, 01 Jan 2012 06:11:00 +0000

Opinions | Yohay | Created: Jun 30, 2011 14:05 GMT; Last Modified: Jul 14, 2011 14:28 GMT

There are forex pairs which will slow down and bounce back as they get close to a distinct support ro resistance line. If they do have strong, determined momentum, they will break through without looking back. These pairs, that tend to obey the rules, are the more predictable ones. Not all of them are. Here is a ranked list of the top 5, with characteristics of every one of them.

The nature of currency pairs tends to shift over time. Some move up the list, while others lose their charm and move down and sometimes out of the list. This is due to many factors, that change. This is an updated list, made towards the beginning of Q3:

USD/CHF: The Swiss franc moved to the top. Interventions by the SNB belong to the past, despite the recent strength. The pair tends to break to an all-time low, then range back to the previous low. The ranges are very distinct. A break to the upside will likely meet another previous low.
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well.
EUR/GBP: The cross tends to move in ranges, with relatively clear barriers. The narrower ranges made it somewhat harder, but it seems to return to wider ranges.
NZD/USD: The recent strength of the kiwi, a currency sometimes overlooked by traders, made its moves much more predictable. This applies to support and resistance lines alike.
GBP/USD: While the ranges are wider (and so should stops be), the lines are rather distinctive, especially towards the borders of the long term wide range. This pair closes the list.

Are you trading any of these pairs? Do you find them predictable or rather unpredictable?

As you can see, two major pairs are missing from the list. USD/JPY was never a fun pair. It can move in very frustrating narrow ranges and break lines in very slow and annoying manners.

Also the most popular pair, EUR/USD, is missing. The Greek crisis, with the flood of news around it, make trading on this pair quite choppy. This pair had better days, that might return when things calm down.

CFTC SUES 14 FOREIGN CURRENCY FIRMS IN NATIONWIDE SWEEP

noreply@blogger.com (annisa) — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 22:39:00 +0000

Action represents first use of new authority under the 2008 Farm Bill and Dodd-Frank Act to regulate foreign exchange dealers.

Washington, DC - The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) today announced that it simultaneously filed 13 enforcement actions in Federal District Courts in Chicago, the District of Columbia, Kansas City and New York, alleging that 14 entities are illegally soliciting members of the public to engage in foreign currency (forex) transactions and that they are operating without being registered with the CFTC.

Today’s actions are the first taken by the CFTC to enforce new forex regulations that became effective in October 2010. These new regulations require entities that wish to participate in the forex market to register with the CFTC and abide by regulations intended to protect the public. These regulations require that forex dealers take steps to protect investors, including maintaining capital and records, which will reduce risk and increase transparency.

The following companies were sued by the CFTC as part of this sweep:

EuroForex Development LLC, a Delaware LLC;

FIG Solutions Limited, Inc., a Delaware corporation;

ForInvest, a Delaware corporation;

FXOpen Investments Inc., a foreign entity with various business operations located throughout the United States;

FXPRICE, a Delaware LLC;

GIGFX, L.L.C., a Delaware company;

InovaTrade, Inc., a company with purported offices in Florida;

InstaTrade Corporation d/b/a InstaForex, a British Virgin Islands company;

InvesttechFX Technologies, Inc., a Canadian corporation located in Toronto;

J&K Futures, Inc., a company with purported offices in California and New York;

Kingdom Forex Trading and Futures, Ltd., a Nevada company;

Prime Forex, LLC, a Delaware LLC;

Wall Street Brokers, LLC, a Delaware LLC; and

ZtradeFX LLC, a Connecticut LLC.

In the forex market, entities known as Retail Foreign Exchange Dealers (RFED) or Futures Commission Merchants (FCM) may buy foreign currency contracts from or sell foreign currency contracts to individual investors. Under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and CFTC Regulations, an entity acting as an RFED or FCM must register with the Commission and abide by rules and regulations designed for investor protection, including those relating to minimum capital requirements, recordkeeping and compliance. Further, with a few exceptions, such an entity also must be registered with the Commission if it solicits or accepts orders from US investors in connection with forex transactions conducted at an RFED or FCM.

In all but two of the complaints, the CFTC alleges that a defendant acted as an RFED; that is, it offered to take or took the opposite side of a customer’s forex transaction without being registered. In the remaining two complaints, ZtradeFX LLC and FXPRICE, the CFTC alleges that the defendant solicited customers to place forex trades at an RFED without being registered as an Introducing Broker. In every complaint, the CFTC alleges that the defendant solicited or accepted orders from US investors to enter into forex transactions in violation of the Act. The CFTC has moved for preliminary injunctions preventing these defendants from operating unless and until they comply with the CEA and Commission Regulations. The CFTC’s complaints also seek civil monetary penalties, trading and registration bans, disgorgement and rescission.

The CFTC strongly urges the public to check whether a company is registered before investing funds. If a company is not registered, an investor should be wary of providing funds to that company.

A company’s registration status can be found at: www.nfa.futures.org/basicnet

The CFTC also strongly urges members of the public to visit the below websites before investing money in the forex market:

CFTC Consumer Advisory: Forex Fraud: If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is!

http://www.cftc.gov/enf/enf-forex.htm

Fraud Advisory from the CFTC: Foreign Currency Trading (Forex) Fraud

http://www.cftc.gov/ConsumerProtection/FraudAwarenessPrevention/CFTCFraudAdvisories/fraudadv_forex.html

Foreign Exchange Currency Fraud: CFTC/NASAA Investor Alert

http://www.cftc.gov/ConsumerProtection/FraudAwarenessPrevention/ForeignCurrencyTrading/cftcnasaaforexalert.html

The CFTC Division of Enforcement staff members responsible for these cases are: Margaret Aisenbrey, Kathleen Banar, Barry Blankfield, Kim Bruno, Jennifer Chapin, Elizabeth Davis, James Deacon, Jennifer Diamantis, Rick Glaser, Patricia Gomersall, Amanda Harding, Jessica Harris, Paul Hayeck, Lenel Hickson, Rosemary Hollinger, William Janulis, Joseph Konizeski, Jeffrey Le Riche, Charles Marvine, Judith McCorkle, Joy McCormack, Vincent McGonagle, Kenneth McCracken, Stephen Obie, Nathan Ploener, Eliud Ramirez, Stephanie Reinhart, Xavier Romeu-Matta, Christine Ryall, Veronica Spicer, Elizabeth Streit, Manal Sultan, Lara Turcik, Stephen Turley, Richard Wagner and Scott Williamson.

The CFTC thanks the National Futures Association for its assistance in this matter.

Media Contacts

Dennis Holden

202-418-5088

Offshore company

noreply@blogger.com (annisa) — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 22:19:00 +0000

The term offshore company is ambiguous. It may refer to either:

A company which is incorporated outside the jurisdiction of its primary operations regardless of whether that jurisdiction is an offshore financial centre (sometimes known as a non-resident company) i.e. a Canadian company may be 'offshore' for the purposes of a USA citizen ; or,
Any company (resident or otherwise) incorporated in an offshore financial centre, i.e. offshore jurisdictions

Typically the requirements for company registration under the relevant provision for non-resident status (as in the former of the two options above) will be pursuant to some or all of the following criteria in a strict legal sense according to Offshore Company Law:Theory, Regulations& Operation(By Zhang Shiwei, China Law Press, 2004):

Must be incorporated under Offshore Company Laws and regulations of offshore jurisdictions
Must be incorporated by non-residents of offshore jurisdictions
Must not trade within the offshore jurisdictions; and/or,
Must meet nominal tax expenses levied by the offshore jurisdictions.

Management and control

It is worth mentioning at this juncture that taxation of a company somewhere other than its place of incorporation is not by any means an exclusively offshore concept. By way of example consider a UK incorporated company which traded exclusively in France. If the board of directors of this company were based in France there would be no doubt that the company would be subject to French tax.

Consider also a US citizen running a Bahamas company from the US, there is no doubt that the activities of that company are subject to taxation in the US.

The same principle extends to regulations also.

Benefits

Offshore companies have the following features which may be beneficial:

Taxation - In most jurisdictions authorities will not seek to tax companies which they treat as non-resident, save perhaps for a nominal fee -$350 BVI, £320 Isle of Man etc.

Simplicity and Reporting - except for regulated businesses, such as banks or other financial institutions, some jurisdictions make it relatively simple to set up and maintain companies especially with reference to lesser reporting requirements than so-called onshore jurisdictions - the level of information required by the registrar of companies varies from jurisdiction to jurisdiction.

Legal and asset protection - some jurisdictions have stricter provisions for allowing a court to pierce the corporate veil, and in many cases corporate governance rules require the laws of the jurisdiction where the corporation is chartered - rather than where it is sued - to apply. For example Gibraltar makes it illegal for the trustee of an Asset Protection Trust to surrender its assets to a creditor of the settlor and in Switzerland it is illegal to disclose banking information.

Fees - some jurisdictions impose much higher fees to incorporate than other jurisdictions. They may also impose much higher maintenance fees on a corporation's yearly renewal of its charter. This will vary from service provider to service provider and will be significantly based on the cost of local disbursements.

Anonymity - by carrying out transactions in the name of a private company, the name of the underlying principal may be kept out of documentation, since the company is a separate legal entity. Having said that, current anti-money-laundering regulations often require banks and other professionals to look through structures. This will always be the case for any reputable bank but it does not render ineffective the use of corporate structures, rather it ensures they remain legally compliant.

Thin capitalisation - Some offshore jurisdictions tend not to impose "thin capitalisation" rules on companies (except for regulated entities such as banks and insurance companies), allowing them to be formed with a purely nominal equity investment.

Financial assistance - offshore companies are usually not prohibited from providing "financial assistance" for the acquisition of their own shares, which avoids the needs for "whitewash" procedures in certain financial transactions.

Cost of operation - In many cases, i.e. where a self employed consultant provides services to a number of jurisdictions and travels frequently, it is a matter of choice where he chooses to incorporate. In this case the fact that companies in an offshore financial centre are considerably cheaper than buying or renting premises, arranging to engage accountants, receptionists, IT providers etc. would be.

Practical uses of offshore companies

Offshore companies are beneficial for many purposes including at least some of the following:

Consultancy, Professional Services, Agency

Professionals, consultants, artists and many self-employed individuals decide to incorporate a business representing their services to gain substantial advantages by working as employees or external consultants of offshore companies of which they may be the sole shareholders and, if they want to, the sole directors.

Employment of Expatriate Staff

Expatriates working overseas frequently benefit from being employed through an offshore employment/consultancy company. By not remitting the full salary it can minimise tax and avoid exchange control difficulties in the country of temporary residence. This arrangement is sometimes attractive for expatriates working in politically unstable countries.

Property Owning Companies

There are often significant advantages in using an offshore holding company for the purpose of holding property. The advantages of such an arrangement include the avoidance of inheritance tax, capital gains tax and the ease of sale which can be achieved by transferring the property owned by the company and reduction of property purchase costs to the onward purchasers.

Investment Companies

Funds accumulated through investment companies set up in offshore areas can be invested or deposited throughout the world. Whilst generally returns or interest payable in respect of these funds will be subject to local taxation, there are a number of offshore areas in which funds may be placed as bank deposits where the interest and/or the capital gains are paid and kept gross. To invest in global securities including mutual funds not available to "local" citizens. Offshore jurisdictions are typically less invasive allowing for aggressive and unrestrained Free Enterprise.

Copyrights, Patents and Trademarks

Offshore companies can purchase or be assigned the right to use copyright, patent or trademark. Royalties can then be accumulated offshore although often royalties may suffer withholding taxes at source. An interposing holding company in some cases may allow a reduction in the rate of tax withheld at source.

Privacy

A high net-worth individual can save professional fees and unwanted publicity by owning property or other assets through an offshore company. Many jurisdictions require company accounting records to be published, but jurisdictions can offer privacy if they do not require offshore companies to publish accounting records, and the name and details of their shareholders.

Protection

To file first position liens against assets and property closing the door to predatory litigation before it begins. To segregate high-risk investments from other more secure holdings. To protect retirement funds from possible bankruptcy. To provide for the transfer of assets for the next generation in an efficient and discreet fashion. Nominee directors and officers can allow you to conduct business transactions for your benefit while you remain anonymous. To access your funds with corporate debit or credit cards thereby maintaining absolute confidentiality.

Disadvantages

Offshore companies are usually prohibited from conducting business or retaining employees in their jurisdiction of incorporation though this very much depends on the jurisdiction in question and type of company.

For regulatory reasons, there are often certain restrictions on the type of business which an offshore company can engage in without the need for a licence. In practice this is no different from trading 'onshore' since the majority of banks have offshore operations and the majority of the world's insurance companies are offshore captive insurance companies.

Due diligence in reputable offshore centres tends to be more strict than most onshore areas.^[4] For example, to open a bank account in the name of an offshore company, to comply with relevant anti-money laundering regulations, the bank will normally require documents verifying the identity of the signers on the account to be notarised and may require one or more professional reference letters from an attorney, accountant and/or banker who has known you.

Certain countries have "anti-tax haven" legislation which makes it difficult to conduct business in those countries using an offshore company. For example, capital markets regulations in France prohibit using offshore companies as bond issuing vehicles.

Where a shareholder of an offshore company dies, it is usually necessary to have the will admitted to probate in the offshore jurisdiction as well (or, if intestate, to have the letters of administration re-sealed in that jurisdiction), which can add to cost, delay and inconvenience in administering the deceased's estate.

Legitimate uses of offshore companies

International trading, especially where the owner has no fixed residence
Asset protection
Captive insurance
Yacht registration
Tax avoidance
Protection of intellectual property
Succession planning
Confidentiality (non-criminal)

Illegitimate uses

Historically the activities of offshore companies have included activities that were or have become illegal. These include

The finance of terrorism
Money laundering
Tax evasion
Fraud (including investor fraud)
Protection from current or future creditors (including taxation authorities and spouses)
Irregular trading practices (such as increasing margins on deals by interposing clandestinely controlled offshore companies as apparent third parties)

The situation has much improved since the 1970s and 1980s largely due to increased regulation and general changes in commercial practice. The leading offshore financial centres are now more compliant with the Financial Action Task Force on Money Laundering's '40+9' recommendations than many onshore financial centres. However some traces of these abuses persist today both in offshore and onshore jurisdictions.

Importance of choosing a legitimate jurisdiction

Many offshore jurisdictions are regarded by banks, the OECD and other bodies in the finance industry as being regulated either as effectively as or better than their onshore counterparts whilst others are known to be areas of dubious legitimacy.

Unfortunately gone are the days (if ever they existed) where the distinction between onshore and offshore equated to legitimate or illegitimate. The current position is that there is no correlation between legitimacy of jurisdiction and tax status. For example Nigeria would not be regarded as offshore but perpetrates much of the world's advance fee fraud whereas Switzerland would be regarded as a highly respectable jurisdiction.

It is no longer possible for illegitimate jurisdiction to operate in light of the OEDC and the FATF as well as current and pending US legislation (13/06/09). It is very much in the interest of most offshore jurisdictions to ensure their house is in good order as this failure to comply and subsequent sanctions could lead to the total economic collapse of a country dependent upon its international reputation.

Features of offshore companies

Memorandum and articles of association or bylaws - these documents are fundamental to the existence of the company. The Articles detail the rights of the members, the objectives of the company and the internal processes of the company and the Memorandum states the type of Company and its capital.
Certificate of Incorporation - this is issued by the Registrar of Companies or their equivalent, and is serves as proof that the company has been brought into existence. Other information may be necessary to prove that the company has not been liquidated or struck off such as a certified of incumbency or good standing.
Registered Agent - it is often the case that an agent must be appointed in the jurisdiction in which the company is incorporated for the purpose of dealing with official communications with the registrar. The Agent will have to be licensed and will assume some level of responsibility for the company's activities.
Registered Office - this is the official address of a company, to which official documents are sent and legal notices received. It is normal for the registration agent to provide a registered office. A company may have other business and correspondence addresses.
Shareholders or other members - these are the legal owners of the company. For administrative simplicity, or for anonymity, a corporate service provider may supply nominees who will hold shares on behalf of a beneficial owner, and act on his instructions.
Directors, Managers or their delegates - the individuals who manage the day-to-day affairs of company. In many jurisdictions it is possible for companies to be directors of other companies. Corporate service providers in offshore jurisdictions will often provide directors, provided they are able to control, and be satisfied with, the activities of the company. The company is generally considered to be resident for tax purposes at the place where the decisions are made. In many cases if a person is acting as a director they will be considered de facto to be a director in spite of not having recorded this with the relevant body.
Shadow directors - in some cases, it has been shown that the formally appointed directors merely act as the alter ego of others, blindly following their instructions. In these cases, the courts have considered that those instructing the named directors really control the company, and that the named directors merely rubberstamp decisions. Companies managed in this way will be tax resident in the jurisdiction where the shadow director is resident.
Company Secretary - this is the person or body corporate who is responsible for ensuring that the company meets its statutory obligations. Corporate service providers usually provide this service.
Statutory Records - a company is obliged to maintain registers setting out certain information about the company. The mandatory records vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction, as does the level of public access to the information contained in the records. Many jurisdictions require that the records are kept within the jurisdiction in which the company is incorporated. The records required may include minutes of meetings, registers members, directors, officers and charges.
Bookkeeping - directors are generally required to keep proper records. They may be required to prepare audited accounts. Specific requirements vary between jurisdictions and may depend on the nature of the company's activity. For example all banks will need to prepare audited accounts, whereas a private investment.

Types of companies

Examples of offshore companies include the International Business Company (IBC). More recently new legislation has been enacted in a number of Jurisdictions, such as the British Virgin Islands, to replace the IBC type of company with the Business Company (BC).

The following types of company are common in both onshore and offshore jurisdictions:

Company having a share capital - these companies issue shares. Once the initial cost of a share (capital and premium) has been paid, the shareholders have no further obligation to the company. The shares may, subject to the rules of the company, be sold or transferred, and the shareholders have the right to enjoy the profits of the company or any proceeds of a liquidation. The liability of the shareholder is therefore limited to the amount invested. Shares are assets.
Company limited by guarantee - the members of the company agree to pay up to a maximum limit in the event that the company becomes insolvent. They may acquire certain rights against the company, such as the rights to a dividend and the specific rights will be set out in the rules of the company. Membership may terminate on death, and guarantee companies have been used for not for profit organizations. There are also sophisticated estate planning schemes which make use of guarantee companies. Membership is a liability.
Hybrid - a combination of the above two classes - i.e. a company have bother liability class shares and asset class shares.
Protected cell companies - some jurisdictions permit cellular companies, where particular assets and liabilities are segregated into "cells", in such a way that the assets of one cell cannot be used to satisfy the liabilities of another. Cell companies are particularly used for umbrella mutual funds or unit linked insurance bonds. In this instance the separate cells are effectively distinct legal entities.

It is important to note though that the above is a gross oversimplification of the near infinite variety of types of company most sophisticated jurisdictions permit. Shares themselves come in many different types with the rights in respect of dividend, preference, voting etc. being determined by the constitution of the company to which they relate. Also, it is by no means uncommon for companies to utilise many different classes in particular when they are soliciting for investment from third-parties.

However, many offshore jurisdictions offer increasingly specialised forms of companies (as well as specialised trusts and partnerships) seeking to increase their share of the market. Examples include limited duration companies, unlimited liability companies, companies limited by guarantee and with a share capital, restricted purpose companies and hybrid entities such as limited liability partnerships, which are more akin to companies to actual partnerships, and foundations, which are nominally trusts but are more akin to companies than trusts.

Merger

The traditional method of merging companies is for one company to acquire the assets of a subsidiary on its liquidation. This sometimes creates contractual difficulties, and requires third parties to accede to the transfer of obligations from the liquidated company. Some jurisdictions have tackled this issue by permitting companies to merge, forming a new combined entity, which represents a continuation of the businesses of each former company.

Relocation of companies

Some jurisdictions permit companies to redomicile. They may do this to take advantage of particular features of the new jurisdiction, such as merger legislation, or tax treaties with other countries. The law in both the old and new jurisdictions must permit redomiciliation. The business of the company is deemed to continue without interruption on redomiciliation.

This is usually not a complicated process, but it might be slow and involve some paperwork; it can be used when the cost of the transfer of domicile is less than the tax consequences of transferring the assets of the company in question to a company newly incorporated in the desired new jurisdiction.

Offshore jurisdictions

It is possible to incorporate offshore companies in many jurisdictions. In some onshore jurisdictions, such as the UK and New Zealand, there are particular types of companies which offer many of the advantages of typical offshore structures. The following list is not exhaustive.

Andorra
Anguilla
Aruba
Bahamas
Barbados
Belize
Bermuda
British Virgin Islands
Brunei
Cayman Islands
Cook Islands
Costa Rica
Cyprus
Delaware (see also Delaware General Corporation Law)
Dubai
Gibraltar
Grenada
Guernsey
Hong Kong
Isle of Man
Jersey
Jordan
Labuan
Lebanon
Liberia
Marshall Islands
Mauritius
Monaco
Netherlands Antilles
Nevada
Nevis
New Zealand
Panama
Ras Al Khaimah
Seychelles
Singapore
Trinidad and Tobago
Turks and Caicos Islands
United Kingdom
Vanuatu

Fitch Ratings

noreply@blogger.com (annisa) — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 12:48:00 +0000

Fitch Ratings, Ltd. adalah merupakan suatu lembaga pemeringkat kredit internasional credit rating agency yang memiliki dua kantor pusat yaitu di New York dan di London, yang merupakan salah satu dari 3 organisasi pemeringkat statistik nasional (Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations ) (NRSROs) yang ditunjuk oleh Securities and Exchange Commission ( badan pengawas pasar modal Amerika} bersama-sama dengan Moody's dan Standard & Poor's serta A.M. Best dan Dominion Bond Rating Service yang barusan bergabung dalam NRSROs.

Perusahaan ini didirikan oleh John Knowles Fitch pada tanggal 24 Desember 1913 di New York dengan nama Fitch Publishing Company. Dilakukan penggabungan usaha dengan pada bulan Desember 1997 dengan sebuah perusahaan dari London yaitu IBCA Limited yang mayoritas sahamnya dimiliki oleh sebuah perusahaan Perancis yang benama Fimalac pada bulan April tahun 2000 Fitch mengambil alih Duff & Phelps Credit Rating Co. sebuah perusahaan pemeringkat kredit dari Chicago (April) dan pada bulan Desember tahun yang sama kembali mengambil alih Thomson BankWatch. Fitch adalah lembaga pemeringkat kredit yang memiliki kontribusi pasar terkecil dibandingkan S&P dan Moodys namun merupakan 3 besar NRSROs.

Peringkat kredit jangka panjang

Fitch's memberikan peringkat kepada perusahaan berdasarkan skala mulai dari "AAA" hingga "D", skala ini pertama kalinya dipergunakan pada tahun 1924 yang kemudian digunakan pula oleh S&P. Moody's also uses a similar scale, but names the categories differently. Like S&P, Fitch also uses intermediate modifiers for each category between AA and CCC (i.e., AA+, AA, AA-, A+, A, A-, BBB+, BBB, BBB- etc.).

Peringkat Investasi

AAA : perusahaan berkwalitas terbaik, layak dan stabil
AA : perusahaan berkwalitas,sedikit lebih beresiko dibanding AAA
A : situasi ekonomi dapat berpengaruh pada kondisi keuangan perusahaan
BBB : Perusahaan kelas menengah, dimana saat ini dalam kondisi memuaskan

Peringkat Non-Investasi (dikenal juga sebagai junk bonds)

BB : kecenderungan mengalami perubahan dalam situasi ekonomi
B : diperhatikan adanya variasi situasi keuangan
CCC : saat ini goyah dan tergantung pada kondisi ekonomi yang menguntungkan agar dapat memenuhi kewajibannya
CC : sangat goyah, obligasi yang sangat spekulatif
C : sangat goyah sekali, kemungkinan pailit atau menunggak pembayaran tetapi tetap melanjutkan pembayaran obligasinya
D : gagal bayar dalam kewajibannya dan S&P meyakini bahwa akan terjadi gagal bayar atas sebagian besar atau seluruh kewajibannya
NR : tidak diberikan peringkat

Peringkat hutang jangka pendek

Peringkat hutang jangka pendek yang diberikan oleh Fitch'mengindikasikan tingkat kemungkinan potensial atas terjadinya gagal bayar dalam periode 12 bulan kedepan.

F1+ : peringkat terbaik , menunjukkan bahwa debitur memiliki kapasitas yang sangat besar guna memenuhi kewajibannya.
F1 : peringkat terbaik , menunjukkan bahwa debitur memiliki kapasitas yang besar guna memenuhi kewajibannya.
F2 : peringkat baik dengan kapasitas yang memuaskan dari debitur guna memenuhi kewajibannya.
F3 : peringkat cukup dengan kapasitas yang memadai dari debitur guna memenuhi kewajibannya namun kemunduran ekonomi yang terjadi dalam waktu dekat dapat berpengaruh pada komitmen debitur.
B : kondisi spekulatif dan debitur hanya memiliki kapasitas yang minimal guna memenuhi kewajibannya dan rentan terhadap penurunan kondisi keuangan dan ekonomi.
C : kemungkinan gagal bayar amat tinggi dan komitmen keuangan dari debitur adalah amat tergantung pada situasi yang menguntungkan baik dalam dunia usaha maupun dalam kondisi ekonomi.
D : telah gagal bayar sebagaimana.

Criticism

Lembaga pemeringkat kredit seperti halnya Fitch Ratings ini telah menjadi sasaran kecaman sebagai penyebab kerugian besar pada pasar obligasi beragun aset (collateralized debt obligation-CDO) yang terjadi walaupun diberikan peringkat tinggi oleh lembaga pemeringkat kredit. Sebagai contohnya, kerugian atas obligasi beragun aset sebesar 340,7 juta USD yang diterbitkan oleh kelompok usaha Credit Suisse yang masih bertambah lagi dengan 125 juta USD, dimana peringkat yang diberikan oleh Moody's adalah Aaa.

Standard and Poor's

noreply@blogger.com (annisa) — Sat, 17 Dec 2011 23:00:00 +0000

Standard & Poor's atau juga dikenal dengan sebutan (S&P) adalah salah satu anak perusahaan dari McGraw-Hill yang merupakan perusahaan pemeringkat atas saham dan obligasi, yang merupakan salah satu dari 3 perusahaan besar dalam industri pemeringkatan efek bersama Moody's dan Fitch Ratings.

Salah satu produknya yang dikenal secara luas adalah pemeringkatan atas 500 saham di Amerika yang dikenal dengan nama S&P 500, dan pemeringkatan 200 saham di Australia yang dikenal dengan nama indeks harga saham gabungan S&P/ASX 200 dan pemeringkatan di Kanada yang dikenal dengan nama S&P/TSX.

Bidang usaha

Standard & Poor's menjalankan kegiatan usahanya dibidang jasa keuangan dimana produk yang dihasilkannya adalah berupa peringkat kredit, penelitian saham(ekuitas), indeks S&P, keuangan, solusi risiko, jasa kepatuhan, evaluasi, layanan data. Anak perusahaannya yang bernama Capital IQ, menyediakan informasi dan solusi arus kerja kepada lembaga keuangan, lembaga penasehat keuangan, dan perusahaan dengan cara menyediakan informasi keuangan secara terintegrasi dan solusi tehnis termasuk laparan keuangan teraudit dari perusahaan, menampilkan analisa berdasarkan gabungan data keuangan dan non keuangan, kumpulan data (database) terintegrasi dari pasar modal, dan berbagai sarana pengembangan yang berhubungan. Perusahaan ini melayani berbagai lembaga profesional, lembaga keuangan, perusahaan, penasehat keuangan, dan investor perorangan diberbagai belahan dunia.

Sejarah perusahaan

Diawali pada tahun 1860 dengan penerbitan sebuah buku berjudul History of Railroads and Canals in the United States ( sejarah perkereta apian dan kanal di Amerika ) oleh Henry Varnum Poor. Buku ini berupaya untuk menghimpun informasi komperhensif tentang keuangan dan operasional dari perusahaan kereta api di Amerika. Henry Varnum mendirikan H.V. and H.W. Poor Co bersama anaknya yang bernama Henry William dan menerbitkan versi terbaru dari buku ini secara tahunan.

Pada tahun 1906 Luther Lee Blake mendirikan Standard Statistics Bureau, dengan tujuan untuk menyediakan informasi keuangan atas perusahaan yang bergerak dibidang usaha non perkereta apian. Selain menerbitkan "Standard Statistics" secara tahunan, juga diterbitkan semacam kartu berukuran 5 x 7 inci sehingga memungkinkan untuk lebih seringnya dilakukan pembaruan data

Perusahan S&P ini adalah dibentuk berdasarkan penggabungan usaha dari Poor's Publishing (perusahaan penerus dari H.V and H.W Poor Co) dan Standard Statistics.

pada tahun 1966 S&P diakuisisi oleh The McGraw-Hill Companies, sebuah perusahaan penerbitan besar di Amerika dan kini S&P menjadi perusahaan jasa layanan keuangan.^[1]

Pemeringkat kredit

Selaku lembaga pemeringkat kredit, Standard & Poor's menerbitkan peringkat kredit atas hutang dari perusahaan. Dan saat ini S&P diakui sebagai organisasi pemeringkat statistik nasional Amerika oleh U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (lembaga pengawas pasar modal di Amerika).

S&P menerbitkan peringkat atahutang jangka pendek dan jangka panjang.

Peringkat kredit jangka panjang

S&P memberikan peringkat kepada perusahaan berdasarkan skala dari AAA hingga D. Peringkat tengah terdapat pada setiap tingkat di antara AA dan CCC (misalnya :BBB+, BBB and BBB-). Untuk beberapa perusahaan, S&P dapat juga mengeluarkan petunjuk yang disebut "credit watch" (kredit yang harus diawasi) yaitu kredit yang dapat saja berubah peringkatnya menjadi naik (positif) ataupun turun (negatif) ataupun tetap (netral).

Peringkat investasi

AAA : perusahaan berkwalitas terbaik, layak dan stabil
AA : perusahaan berkwalitas,sedikit lebih berisiko dibanding AAA
A : situasi ekonomi dapat berpengaruh pada kondisi keuangan perusahaan
BBB : Perusahaan kelas menengah, dimana saat ini dalam kondisi memuaskan.

Peringkat Non-Investasi (dikenal juga sebagai junk bonds)

BB : kecenderungan mengalami perubahan dalam situasi ekonomi
B : diperhatikan adanya variasi situasi keuangan
CCC : saat ini goyah dan tergantung pada kondisi ekonomi yang menguntungkan agar dapat memenuhi kewajibannya.
CC : sangat goyah, obligasi yang sangat spekulatif
C : sangat goyah sekali, kemungkinan pailit atau menunggak pembayaran tetapi tetap melanjutkan pembayaran obligasinya
CI : gagal bayar pada kewajiban pembayaran bunga yang lalu
R : berada dibawah pengawasan yang berwenang sehubunhgan dengan kondisi keuangannya.
SD : beberapa kewajibannya mengalami gagal bayar.
D : gagal bayar dalam kewajibannya dan S&P meyakini bahwa akan terjadi gagal bayar atas sebagian besar atau seluruh kewajibannya
NR : tidak diberikan peringkat

Peringkat hutang jangka pendek

S&P memberikan peringkat atas hutang jangka pendek ini berdasarkan skala dari A-1 hingga D. Di antara kategori A-1 dapat ditambahkan tanda (+) yang mengindikasikan bahwa penerbit memiliki suatu komitmen yang amat kuat untuk memenuhi kewajibannya. Resiko negara dan nilai tukar dari pembayaran kembali kewajiban debitur merupakan faktor yang telah diperhitungkan dalam analisa kredit dalam pemberian peringkat

A-1 : debitur memiliki kapasitas yang sangat besar guna memenuhi kewajibannya.
A-2 : rentan terhadap menurunnya kondisi ekonomi namun kapasitas debitur untuk memenuhi kewajibannya adalah memuaskan.
A-3 : kondisi kemunduran ekonomi dapat berpengaruh terhadap melemahnya kapasitas debitur guna memenuhi kewajibannya.
B : memiliki karakteristik spekulatif yang signifikan, debitur saat ini memiliki kapasitas guna memenuhi kewajibannya namun dalam menghadapi masalah ketidakpastian yang terjadi saat ini dapat berpengaruh bagi komitmen keuangannya dalam pembayaran kewajibannya.
C : saat ini sangat rentan untuk gagal bayar dan guna memenuhi kewajiban pembayaran kewajibannya debitur amat tergantung pada situasi yang menguntungkan baik dalam dunia usaha maupun dalam kondisi ekonomi.
D : berada dalam keadaan gagal bayar. Kewajiban tidak dipenuhi pada saat jatuh tempo dan tenggang waktu penundaan belum jatuh tempo. Peringkat ini juga digunakan pada saat debitur menghadapi suatu gugatan kepailitan.

Indeks pasar modal

Standard & Poor's menerbitkan banyak sekali indeks pasar modal, meliputi setiap wilayah di dunia ini maupun pada setiap jenjang kapitalisasi pasar dan jenis investasi ( misalnya : indeks untuk REIT dan saham preferen)

Penerbitan

Standard & Poor's menerbitkan laporan peringkat ini secara mingguan (48 kali dalam setahun) dalam bentuk buletin analisa pasar modal yang disebut The Outlook yang diterbitkan baik dalam bentuk cetak maupun secara online kepada pelanggannya.

Kecaman

Lembaga pemeringkat kredit seperti halnya S&P ini telah menjadi sasaran kecaman sebagai penyebab kerugian besar pada pasar obligasi beragun aset (collateralized debt obligation-CDO) ^[2] yang terjadi walaupun diberikan peringkat tinggi oleh lembaga pemeringkat kredit. Sebagai contohnya, kerugian atas obligasi beragun aset sebesar 340,7 juta USD yang diterbitkan oleh kelompok usaha Credit Suisse yang masih bertambah lagi dengan 125 juta USD, dimana peringkat yang diberikan oleh Moody's adalah Aaa.

What's in an AAA? Use Your Judgment, Investors Say

noreply@blogger.com (annisa) — Sat, 17 Dec 2011 22:49:00 +0000

In a world where the United States no longer has a AAA and big economies like France and Germany risk losing theirs, investors are increasingly relying as much on their own judgment of top-bracket creditworthiness as on the opinions of ratings agencies.

While two of the largest agencies, Moody's and Standard & Poor's, have been criticized by governments and banks for recent downgrades and threats of ratings cuts, investors say loss of the cherished AAA no longer means an instant "sell".

Critics fear the credit ratings industry is at risk of making rash calls as it fights to restore its credibility after grave mistakes in evaluating billions of dollars of subprime mortgage debt in the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis.

Once the first port of call for funds assembling new portfolios, managers are increasingly sidelining agencies in favor of their own research and are consulting clients to decide if they remain comfortable holding an investment, whether it comes with the top rating or not.

"More and more we are having conversations with clients, as opposed to selling something instantly that falls below that criteria," said Jennifer Gillespie, head of money market funds at Legal & General Investment Management, which runs around 15 around billion pounds ($23.4 billion) of assets in cash and liquidity strategies.

"You cannot be so black and white because the average credit rating of money-market instruments is not AA or AA-plus, it is getting closer to A," she said.

Speculation that France faces an imminent downgrade of its AAA rating reached fever-pitch on Wednesday, prompting a sharp late-day drop in the share price of French banks including Societe Generale [SOGN.PA 16.545 0.24 (+1.47%) ]and Credit Agricole [CAGR.PA 4.043 0.003 (+0.07%) ].

Policymakers have also stepped up efforts to lessen the impact of the ratings agencies, with Bank of France head Christian Noyer saying on Thursday that their arguments were more "political" than "economic" and a French downgrade would not be justified.

Last week, Standard & Poor's put the euro zone's remaining six AAA-rated governments on watch for a possible downgrade and said the AAA rating of the 27-nation European Union was also under review.

Perceived Irrelevance

In Europe's financial sector, where bank ratings are on a downward slide as credit markets shun eurozone risk, the label awarded to each bank has become even less influential thanks to pledges of financial support from the European Central Bank.

With banks of all stripes now expected to tap the ECB's unprecedented three-year funding facility, investors say credit-rating downgrades have even less relevance because banks can now bypass the bond market entirely, in stark contrast to times where their credit label was crucial to their access to capital.

"If banks are no longer planning to issue bonds on the market for a long period of time, credit-rating downgrades have no impact," said Yannick Naud, portfolio manager at Glendevon King Asset Management.

While a strong rating still carries weight when it comes to attracting corporate clients or signing a derivatives contract, the fact is that even large and strongly rated European banks like BNP Paribas [BNPP.PA 27.745 -0.18 (-0.64%) ] have already had to turn to the ECB for some funding and are expected to continue to do so in 2012.

"Banks are being offered 'open bar' for periods of up to 36 months," said Francois Chaulet, fund manager at Montsegur Finance. "Clearly the banks are going to fall over themselves to get as much as possible."

This helps explain why some French bank shares actually ended the day higher on Friday, up by almost 3 percent, after Moody's downgraded BNP Paribas, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole, citing the eurozone debt crisis' impact on bank funding markets.

"There's extreme support from the ECB," said a London-based analyst. "These downgrades are much less relevant than before."

The perceived irrelevance of credit ratings also comes at a time of volatility and uncertainty for sovereign capital markets.

Some sovereigns like France seem to have accepted the imminent loss of their AAA rating, while others like the Netherlands have promised to take extra austerity measures to preserve it, Glendevon King's Naud said, pointing to a lack of co-ordination in restoring investor confidence in Europe.

But for some investors, confidence in their own abilities to pick worthwhile investments is far greater than the influence the agencies now exert on their strategies.

"Generally, we don't look at what they say they are just irrelevant to how we invest," Tamara Burnell, head of Financial Institutions and Sovereign Research at 194 billion pound fund firm M&G.

"We have invested the resources to ensure that we do not need to rely on anyone's external analysis. That is what our clients pay us for...it would be completely wrong of us to abdicate that responsibility," she said.

Speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Ludwig Erhard Lecture, Berlin, 15 December 2011

noreply@blogger.com (annisa) — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 22:37:00 +0000

Ladies and Gentlemen,

I am honoured to have received the invitation from Professor Hans Tietmeyer to deliver this year’s Ludwig Erhard lecture.

When I was working at the Italian Treasury in the 1990s, Professor Tietmeyer and I had many opportunities to work together. I vividly remember many of our exchanges over the course of the two decades since the Maastricht Treaty. And I am very grateful that he remains in close contact with the European Central Bank (ECB) as adviser to our audit committee.

Let me also express my gratitude to the Ludwig-Erhard-Foundation whose activities in support of the principles of “Soziale Marktwirtschaft” are renowned across Europe.

Ludwig Erhard’s legacy in shaping Germany’s post-war recovery stretches far beyond his own country and far beyond his own times. His conception of the social market economy was visionary. And he even held cherished views about central bankers, stressing the importance of price stability: “Die soziale Marktwirtschaft ist ohne eine konsequente Politik der Preisstabilität nicht denkbar.” I think we cannot formulate this idea any better today.

Ludwig Erhard also helped to enshrine the principle of central bank independence. When in the early 1950s the independence of the German central bank system was not yet settled, he as minister of the economy argued that the government should not issue instructions to the central bank. You all know that the statutes of the ECB inherited this important principle and that central bank independence and the credible pursuit of price stability go hand in hand.

Current circumstances remain demanding, with economic, financial and fiscal issues deeply intertwined with challenges at the political level in many countries and in the supra-national European sphere.

Last week two sets of important decisions have been taken, which are going to be the focus of my remarks today. First, I will elaborate on the motivation for the monetary policy measures that the ECB announced last Thursday and what we expect from them. Second, I would also like to share with you some views on last week’s European Council summit’s decisions, which brought some very important new elements to our economic and monetary union.

Monetary policy decisions for the euro area

To explain our recent monetary policy measures, let me recall the particular role of banks in the euro area economy. The flow of credit to firms and households in the euro area works largely through banks. During recent years, about three quarters of firms’ external financing have come from that source.

This means that any impairment in the bank lending channel will have stronger consequences in the euro area than in other economies where firms’ external financing comes largely from corporate bond markets.

Banks in the euro area have recently come under pressure both as regards their capital bases and their funding conditions.

The plan to strengthen their capital bases is an attempt to reinforce their standing in financial markets, but this is not an easy process. There are essentially three options for banks to pursue to raise their capital ratios as demanded by the European Banking Authority: they can raise their capital levels, sell assets or reduce their provision of credit to the real economy.

The first option is much better than the second, and the second option is much better than the third. But raising capital levels is expensive in a depressed market and faces resistance from shareholders. Selling assets is less preferable and curtailing credit to the real economy is even worse. Therefore, public authorities ought to cushion the impact on the real economy and banks should consider restraining dividends and ad hoc compensation to strengthen buffers.

Banks are also facing problems in raising longer-term funding in financial markets. The resulting shortening of their funding leads in turn to maturity mismatches on balance sheets of the kind that caused the financial crisis. At the same time, shortages of collateral are beginning to emerge in some segments of the financial system especially for the small and medium sized banks.

In addition to identifying these particular strains in the banking sector, our regular economic and monetary analysis has indicated that the intensified financial market tensions continue to dampen economic activity in the euro area and the outlook remains subject to high uncertainty and substantial downside risks. In such an environment, cost, wage and price pressures in the euro area should remain modest over the policy-relevant horizon. At the same time, the underlying pace of monetary expansion remains subdued.

In these conditions, and faithful to our mandate to maintain price stability over the medium term, the ECB’s Governing Council has taken a number of far-reaching decisions.

The Council decided to reduce its key interest rates by another 25 basis points to 1%. In normal financial market conditions, a policy rate reduction is a potent instrument of inflation control and demand support. The rate cut works its way through a long chain of downward adjustments in financial returns. At the end of the process, the yield on large spectrum of securities declines and promotes broad-based policy accommodation.

In the present conditions, this process turns out to be hampered, so that the impact of a rate cut by itself is weakened. Banks limit their lending to other banks and potentially to the broader economy, and they hold on to precautionary balances of cash as self-insurance.

Therefore, the Governing Council last week decided on three other measures, each of which provides additional support in order to bring the necessary monetary policy impulse to the real economy.

The current package should be felt tangibly in the financial sector and the real economy over the coming weeks and months. Of course, it comes against strong headwinds generated by deleveraging.

We established very long-term refinancing operations with a maturity of three years. This duration is a novelty in ECB monetary policy operations.

The extension of central bank credit provision to very long maturities is meant to give banks a longer horizon in their liquidity planning. It helps them to avoid rebalancing the maturities of their assets and liabilities through a downscaling of longer-term lending. Incidentally, we want to make it absolutely clear that in the present conditions where systemic risk is seriously hampering the functioning of the economy, we see no stigma attached to the use of central banking credit provisions: our facilities are there to be used.

Banks will be able to refinance term lending with the Eurosystem and thus preserve their long-term exposures to the real economy. After the first year, banks will have the option to terminate the operation. So they can flexibly adapt to changing liquidity conditions and a normalising market environment.

Our second measure will allow banks to use loans as collateral with the Eurosystem, thereby unfreezing a large portion of bank assets. It should also provide banks with an incentive to abstain from curtailing credit to the economy and to avoid fire-sales of other assets on their balance sheets.

The goal of these measures is to ensure that households and firms – and especially small and medium-sized enterprises – will receive credit as effectively as possible under the current circumstances. Of course, we have to screen the collateral carefully so as to protect our balance sheet.

The third measure we announced last week is to reduce the required reserves ratio from 2% to 1%. This measure frees up liquidity of the banking sector by about 100 billion euro. Along with other measures, this reduction in the reserve requirements should, too, help revive money market activity and lending.

You will notice that I referred repeatedly to small and medium-sized enterprises. The reason for drawing your attention to these businesses is that they are a significant part of our economy, accounting for about 70% of employment in the euro area and 60% of the turnover of all firms. We believe that the measures introduced last Thursday will provide support for this sector and indirectly also support much-needed investment, growth and employment.

Foundations for a stable economic and monetary union

Let me now shift my attention to last week’s European Council summit. For more than 12 years, Europe’s economic and monetary union has been haunted by concerns about national budgets. Within a common currency area during normal times, the fiscal policies of individual countries typically face less pressure from financial markets. It was for this reason that at the very beginning of Europe’s single currency, the Stability and Growth Pact was established to provide a control mechanism for fiscal policy.

Next year, the euro area as a whole will have a government primary budget deficit close to zero. This compares with primary deficits projected at around 5% of GDP in Japan, the UK and the US.

Yet the implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact has not been good enough. As the Federal Chancellor of Germany recently remarked, the Pact has been broken 60 times over the past 12 years. So we clearly have work to do to prevent this happening again.

The new set of rules for economic and fiscal surveillance known as the six-pack – which was approved by the European Parliament earlier this year – will certainly strengthen the implementation of the rules. But while these changes were being planned, the entire fiscal cohesion and credibility of the euro area was weakened.

We have now begun the process of re-designing Europe’s fiscal framework on three fronts.

The first lies with the countries concerned: they have to put their policies back on a sound footing. I believe that they are now on the right track and they are right in implementing budgetary consolidation resolutely. The unavoidable short-term contraction may be mitigated by the return of confidence. But in the medium term, sustainable growth can be achieved only by undertaking deep structural reforms that have been procrastinated for too long.

The second pillar of a response to the crisis consists of a re-design of the fiscal governance in the euro area, what I called the fiscal compact. The fiscal compact is a fundamental restatement of the rules to which national budgetary policies ought to be subject so as to gain credibility beyond doubt.

Last week’s summit committed to enshrine these rules in the primary legislation. They will foresee that the annual structural deficit should not exceed 0.5% of nominal GDP. Euro area Member States will implement such a rule in their national legal frameworks at a constitutional level, so that it is possible to avoid excessive deficits before they arise, rather than trying to control them after they have emerged. Prevention is better than cure.

Rules will also foresee an automatic correction mechanism in case of deviation. Moreover, the leaders agreed on a numerical benchmark for annual debt reduction to bring down debt levels. They also agreed to sanctions that will apply automatically to euro area Member States in breach of the 3% reference value for deficits.

The European Court of Justice may be asked to verify the implementation of these rules at national level.

Taken together, I believe that these decisions are capable of making public finances in the euro area credibly robust.

But restoring financial markets’ confidence also requires that investors be reassured that government debt will always be repaid and timely serviced. Greece will remain a unique case, and a credible stabilisation mechanism, a firewall, will be in place and can be activated when needed subject to proper conditionality. The leaders unambiguously agreed to assess the adequacy of the firewall by next March. Its objective is to address the threats to financial stability, and especially the risk of contagion between different sovereign debt markets.

The leaders decided to deploy the leveraging of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) at the earliest opportunity. At the same time they agreed that the EFSF’s successor, the European Stability Mechanism, should come into force by July 2012.

It is crucial that the EFSF be fully equipped and be made operational as soon as possible. With this goal in mind, last Thursday, the Governing Council decided that the ECB would stand ready to act with its technical infrastructure and know-how as an agent for the EFSF in carrying out its market operations.

Conclusion

Let me conclude. The decisions of the European Council summit, together with the six-pack approved recently by the European Parliament, are a breakthrough for clear fiscal rules in our monetary union.

However, the crisis has not ended yet. It is now important not to lose momentum and to swiftly implement all those decisions that have been taken to put the euro area economy back on course.

The monetary policy measures taken last week by the ECB’s Governing Council will support the flow of credit to firms and households in the euro area economy.

Ludwig Erhard faced a situation that was much more difficult than what we face today. Still, he was able to look through the challenging present and to work hard to build a future that he never doubted would be brighter. The European policy makers might well be inspired by his style: “Den Strom der Zeit können wir zwar nicht lenken, aber wir werden unser Schiff sicher steuern.”

Thank you very much for your attention.

European Central Bank
Directorate Communications
Press and Information Division
Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main
Tel.: +49 69 1344 7455, Fax: +49 69 1344 7404
Internet: http://www.ecb.europa.eu

Reproduction is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged.

Dennis Gartman: 'I Sold All Gold in My Personal Account'

noreply@blogger.com (annisa) — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 18:50:00 +0000

Once again Dennis Gartman is making headlines with his call on gold.

"The market is saying we need to be sellers!" the strategic investor and CNBC Contributor tells us. ”Gold [GCCV1 1574.80 -12.10 (-0.76%) ] is not acting well."
Gartman turned bearish over only the past few days largely due to concerning technicals. “The highs made in September were demonstrably above the October highs which were above the current highs. And we’re breaking trend lines.”

In other words the gold charts are making a series of lower highs – a bearish sign and something many chart watchers considers quite telling. ”Listen when the market talks to you,” Gartman says.

And Gartman is putting his money where his mouth is. He’s sold all the gold in his personal account.

You probably know all that - Gartman's call got a lot of attention across all media. But what you might not know is that he only suggests re-thinking your position - if you're a trader.

"Gold could move lower by $150 in the twinkle of an eye, and that’s too much for me!" he says as a pro who moves in and out of positions with ease. "But that won't destroy the long-term bull move."

Now if you're a long-term investor that last sentence was very important. Gartman is making a trading call. He still thinks the long-term bull trend remains in tact - with gold still moving from the lower left to the upper right.
If you have a time horizon of a year or more, you don't need to do a thing. However for traders, "it’s time to be neutral."

-----

As you might remember Dennis Gartman made a similar high profile call back on August 24th – and it turned out to be prescient.

”I pay great attention to something technicans call an outside reversal – that is, the market made an all-time new high – closed on the lows of the day – then closed below the previous day’s lows. If you don’t pay attention to that and don’t liquidate you’re going to find yourself in a lot of trouble.”

Since August 24th gold is down well over 10%.

Investors Still Reluctant to Buy Euro Zone Bank Debt

noreply@blogger.com (annisa) — Wed, 14 Dec 2011 22:07:00 +0000

Investors are not likely to open their wallets to European banks any time soon despite the efforts of central banks to protect global funding markets from the euro zone debt crisis.

Warnings from rating agencies that they might broadly downgrade euro zone sovereign debt, in which the region's banks have a significant stake, have added to investors' reluctance to lend their dollars.

U.S. interest rate futures, and other indicators of what money markets will charge banks charge for short-term dollar loans factor in a further rise in borrowing costs through the middle of next year.

The expectations of an increase are notable considering the European Central Bank cut interest rates last week to a record low of 1 percent, and the Federal Reserve has kept benchmark dollar rates near zero for three years.

It also means European banks could become increasingly reliant on the ECB for dollar funding, especially while investors remain wary of lending to the region.

"We are doing our best to avoid European bank debt," said Sean Simko, head of fixed income management with SEI Investments in Oaks, Pennsylvania, which manages $179 billion in assets.

Fears persist after last week's summit that European leaders are not doing enough to prevent weaker euro zone nations defaulting, which could trigger another global financial crisis.

Interbank borrowing costs are already approaching their highest levels since June 2009 at the tail end of the global credit crunch. Instead of making short-term loans to European banks, investors have preferred the perceived safety of U.S. Treasury and agency bills which are yielding nil.

Dollar scarcity persists for European banks even after the ECB cut its policy rate and lowered the cost for banks to borrow dollars over the past two weeks.

These ECB moves also have not stopped interbank borrowing costs from rising steadily. The benchmark London interbank offered rate for three-month dollars was fixed at over 0.55 percent on Wednesday — its highest since July 2009. It has more than doubled over the last six months.

"The tail risks have grown and that trend will continue," said Cliff Corso, chief investment officer at Cutwater Asset Management in Armonk, New York, which manages $38 billion.

Eurodollar futures and the forward rates contracts suggest three-month Libor could rise another 10 basis points to 14 basis points by the middle of 2012, which is a substantial rise for banks in this low-interest-rate environment.

Rising open interest on Eurodollar put options also signals some traders are betting interbank borrowing costs would rise into next year, analysts said.

Investor Exodus

In other areas of the short-term funding market, U.S. money market mutual funds are still reducing their investments in euro zone bank debt. Since May, these major providers of dollars have even more than halved their lending to French, German and Dutch banks, which are considered stronger than their Greek, Italian and Spanish counterparts.

In the foreign exchange market, lenders are charging a hefty premium of 1.4 percent for banks to borrow three-month dollars using euro-denominated assets as collateral, up from about 0.25 percent at the end of May.

Thus, European banks are likely to grow more reliant on central banks for dollars to fund trading and operations, or they might choose to reduce trading or sell assets in order to achieve enough of a capital cushion in case the debt crisis worsens.

On Wednesday, a total of 12 banks used the ECB's seven-day dollar swap line, borrowing over $5 billion — around three times the $1.6 billion borrowed at last week's tender.

Stuck

The one hopeful sign might be that, bad as things are, the deterioration in some funding is not accelerating, though the absence of a comprehensive solution to contain the euro zone debt crisis will keep investors on the defensive.

The $2.6 trillion money fund industry has slowed its rollback in euro zone exposure with funds sticking to ultra-short-dated commercial paper, certificates of deposits and repurchase agreements with French, German and Dutch banks.

"Right now there is a core holding that's stabilizing but it's hard to tell how stable it's going to be," said Alex Roever, short-term interest rate strategist at J.P. Morgan [JPM 31.51 0.22 (+0.7%)] Securities in New York.

At the end of November, prime money funds which could invest in non-U.S. government securities held $183 billion in euro zone bank debt, down $35 billion in November from October. Their euro zone exposure was down $296 billion since May when the euro zone debt crisis flared up again, according to Roever and his team which analyzed the latest fund data in a report last week.

Despite ECB support, few investors have shown a willingness to lend their dollars to euro zone banks. Instead they have socked their money into U.S. Treasury and agency bills, keeping their interest rates near zero.

"As long as there is no resolution from Europe, you will continue to see the perceived risk-free markets to be well bid," SEI's Simko said.

Most Economists Expect Another Global Recession

noreply@blogger.com (annisa) — Wed, 14 Dec 2011 09:00:00 +0000

So acute are the risks that few economists are now willing to bet heavily against another global recession in 2012. By common consent, the world economic outlook is much darker today than it appeared in the early autumn.

The eurozone crisis has worsened with contagion spreading through Italy and Spain and now lapping at the door of France. Recoveries remain feeble in other advanced economies. And emerging markets are beginning to feel the pressure.

Policymakers are worried. Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund repeatedly warned in September that the world economy had entered a “dangerous phase”. By December, she said those threats were materializing. “The global economic outlook will be lower, and in certain parts much lower than what we had initially envisaged,” she told journalists this month in Brazil.

Deeper gloom has infected the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, particularly with the response of advanced-economy politicians. Pier Carlo Padoan, its chief economist, said: “We are concerned that policymakers fail to see the urgency of taking decisive action to tackle the real and growing risks to the global economy.”

And that grim assessment is shared by economists in the private sector. As Goldman Sachs marked down its latest forecasts, Jan Hatzius, its chief U.S. economist, said that growth was being held back in many developed economies by higher taxes and efforts to pay back household and corporate debt. “That combination is likely to see another two years of sub-par growth in the major advanced economies, extending into 2013,” he argued.

The verdict of Eswar Prasad, of the Brookings Institution, was even bleaker. “In early 2009, it was difficult to come up with a glimmer of hope. Here we are again. But what is different now is that the crisis of 2008 has created a huge debt burden, so constraints on policy are much tighter now.”

But as the forecasters fret about 2012, not all of the world is yet suffering. Even in Europe, German employment hit another post-unification high in October, highlighting the disconnect between its current prosperity and the pain in the eurozone periphery.

Although forecasts are being revised down by the week, economists still generally expect the world economy to grow by a little more than 3 percent in 2012 — down only 1 percentage point from 4 percent in 2011, with a large majority of that expansion coming from emerging markets.

The center of the current crisis is Europe, where economies both in and around the euro zone appear on the verge of recession. With the hopes dashed that a “bazooka” could prevent contagion spreading to Italy and Spain, governments, households and companies face high interest rates in much of Europe even if official borrowing costs are again at historic lows.

Few expect the euro zone to recover quickly, with most forecasts now expecting contraction in the eurozone economy at the start of 2012 and near stagnation in countries, such as the U.K., surrounding the single currency area.

The great concern is that an economic downturn will exacerbate the stresses in the sovereign debt and bank funding market, which are far from solved, creating a vicious downward spiral akin to 2008 and the potential collapse of the euro.

With the money supply contracting at the fastest rate since early 2009, Neville Hill, of Credit Suisse, observes, that “for institutions that set great store by monetary indicators — the European Central Bank and the Bundesbank, for example — that should be an alarming signal”.

Most observers still expect the euro to survive, but not because policymakers have solved the manifest problems. The most that many thought last week’s summit would change was to turn the crisis from what Gavyn Davies, of Fulcrum Asset Management, described as an acute crisis to a “chronic phase”.

In the U.S., the world’s other huge advanced economic area, most economists still expect the country to enter election year in modest recovery mode. With unemployment falling and recent growth rates higher than in Europe on the back of higher consumer spending, recent survey data have pointed to continued growth at unexciting rates.

But a quiet year is far from guaranteed as election season approaches, political brinkmanship rises and the U.S. is buffeted by the European storms. Willem Buiter, chief economist of Citi, argues that even with modest expansion, “we do not expect that U.S. growth will be strong enough to pull unemployment materially lower in 2012-13”.

So long as Europe staggers along, most important to the continuing outlook, says Julian Callow, of Barclays Capital, is that Congress extends the payroll tax cut, scheduled to expire at the end of 2011.

As the advanced world contemplates another year of disappointment, the engine of the global economy has moved ever more decisively to large emerging economies.

Gerard Lyons, of Standard Chartered, says the western fundamentals are poor and confidence is shot. “In contrast, across the emerging world, the fundamentals are good, the policy cupboard is almost full and confidence is likely to prove resilient.”

But even these emerging economies are not problem-free. China, by far the most important, accounting for over 40 percent of global growth in 2011, according to Nomura. “No wonder we are so concerned about the risks of a hard landing in China,” says Paul Sheard, its chief economist.

It is feeling the slowdown in the rest of the world and the authorities are beginning to worry about their ability to sustain growth. At least, says Qu Hongbin, of HSBC, inflation is moderating increasing the scope for stimulatory policies. “The major macro risk in China is quickly shifting from inflation to disinflation, calling for more aggressive easing in policy going into next year,” Mr Hongbin said.

Such policies worked in 2009 to increase infrastructure spending, investment by state-owned enterprises and housebuilding and are likely to work again, even if such capital spending does nothing for the longer-term aim of rebalancing the global economy.

Elsewhere in the emerging world, growth is continuing but also at slower rates. Eastern Europe, including Turkey, is particularly vulnerable to the eurozone crisis and its banks are seeking to pull funds home. Growth in Latin America is slowing rapidly as the commodity boom levels off, while Africa, despite a hugely improved performance, is highly vulnerable to a global slowdown.

In all, the world remains a dangerous place with advanced economies a long way from recovering from the 2008-09 crisis and huge uncertainty over the scope of the emerging world to generate self-sustaining growth. Following robust recovery in 2010, this year has been a huge disappointment.

FOMC Statement - Release Date: December 13, 2011

noreply@blogger.com (annisa) — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 19:33:00 +0000

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately, notwithstanding some apparent slowing in global growth. While indicators point to some improvement in overall labor market conditions, the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has continued to advance, but business fixed investment appears to be increasing less rapidly and the housing sector remains depressed. Inflation has moderated since earlier in the year, and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee continues to expect a moderate pace of economic growth over coming quarters and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee’s dual mandate. However, the Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.
To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee decided today to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.
The Committee also decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013.
The Committee will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ its tools to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Charles I. Plosser; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Charles L. Evans, who supported additional policy accommodation at this time.

2011 Monetary Policy Releases

Why Europe Has Investors Running Scared—Again

noreply@blogger.com (annisa) — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 22:17:00 +0000

The search for a silver bullet to fix Europe’s debt mess again has come up empty.

Like so many proposals that came before it, the tentative agreement crafted from Friday’s European summit generated a day of euphoria followed by careful reflection and, then, more pain.

Global equity markets slumped Monday, bringing an abrupt end to the sharp rally that began Nov. 28 on the perpetual hopes that policymakers are nearing the end of their long journey toward figuring out the continent’s sovereign debt mess.

There seemed to be two issues at the heart of the matter:

1) The UK’s refusal to go along with proposals that would have tied it more closely to the euro zone, of which it is not a member.

2) A delayed reaction from European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi’s comments Thursday that there will be no ECB bond-buying of the toxic southern European debt.

Britain vetoed provisions that would have required it to follow the same rules as the nations in the European Union that use the euro as its currency. Without the UK's cooperation, some fear it could threaten the very existence of the EU.

“History may yet judge harshly British Prime Minister David Cameron’s untimely request for a Big Mac at this historic feast and creating a less than binding resolution,” Andrew Wilkinson, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak in New York, said in an analysis on the EU machinations. “Observers fear that the voluntary nature of national fiscal cuts waters down the political deal reached on Friday.”

Condemnation of Cameron’s stance was not universal. Dennis Gartman, a hedge fund manager and author of the widely followed Gartman Letter, praised Cameron for acting “courageously" in preserving London's independence.

“This was, from his perspective, an attack too severe upon British sovereignty and it was the breaking point that could not be papered over,” Gartman wrote.

Yet Gartman said Monday's weakness in stocks would be “ephemeral,” something that obviously did not hold up as trading progressed.

Critics said Cameron vetoed the Friday agreement because he was afraid to take a hard line on the country's banks, an allegation he denied.

Moody’s did little to lighten the mood, warning that it would continue to re-evaluate its position on European debt.

In total, Cameron’s proclamations kindled fears that if the European Union does not become fully subscribed to the uniform currency, chances for survival are slim.

In fact, some think that Friday’s market rally was itself unreasonable given the implications of the ECB position on buying the debt of Greece and the other periphery nations.

“We have warned already that courageous steps from the ECB would not prevent the euro-zone from breaking apart. But in their absence, the chances of some sort of break-up must surely be greater,” John Higgins, senior market economist at Capital Economics, said in a note. “We expect the selling pressure (for European debt) to build.”

“While the ECB met expectations of a further cut in interest rates and greater support for banks on Thursday, it emphatically dashed recently growing hopes that it is about to fire a silver bullet into the heart of the debt crisis by substantially ramping up its bond purchases,” Higgins’ colleague at Capital, chief European economist Jonathan Loynes, said in a separate analysis.

Miller Tabak’s Wilkinson said the events of the past several days provide a sobering reality for investors.

“While investors at large had become increasingly comfortable that the ECB held the key to resolving the debt crisis by standing behind national governments, such optimism is fast-fading,” he said. “While (Draghi) openly questioned interpretation of his earlier comments on the subject ahead of the summit last week and despite the fact he immediately hailed its delivery, Germany’s top banker poured more cold water on the theory that the central bank will intervene in government bond markets.”

European Central Bank Chief Offers No 'Bazooka' for Markets

noreply@blogger.com (annisa) — Thu, 08 Dec 2011 22:37:00 +0000

Published: Thursday, 8 Dec 2011 | 10:25 AM ET

By: Simon Hobbs
CNBC Anchor

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has almost completely closed-off the prospect of aggressive bond buying from the European Central Bank or the prospect of "quantitative easing".

Bloomberg | Getty Images

Not only did he say that he was surprised that some media outlets had inferred from his comments to the European Parliament last week that "other elements" might follow a sequence of events from Europe's politicians, he said that there was "no high probability of deflation" in the Euro Zone.

The risks of deflation might have given him legal cover for such an action.

Draghi added that the ECB would not circumvent Article 123, which prohibits it from supporting individual member states.

Despite the very important move to offer three-year loans to Euro Zone banks for the first time, without penalty interest rates, and loosening the rules for collateral that they have to post in return, the mood of the ECB is far from uniformly dovish.

Draghi revealed that Thursday's widely expected 25 basis points cut was not unanimous—indicating that some members of the Governing Council thought it was too soon to cut again after last month's similar move.

The new head of the ECB also went on to better define the "fiscal compact" that he wanted to see from politicians. Draghi wants primary legislation that would "automatically" limit deficits and debt "ex ante"—in other words before they can even come into being rather than after the fact.

Simon Hobbs CNBC Anchor

Yet, France and Germany are talking about essentially political votes to penalize member states after they transgress, and it's not clear that under many member states constitutions the suggested addition of "balanced budget amendments" and "fiscal brakes" would necessarily bind politicians.

Draghi's announcement that the ECB would continue to "sterilize" it's buying of sovereign debt in the secondary markets also indicates that they do not intend to massively expand money supply to the Euro Zone at a time when their new projections indicate a rising risk of recession for the bloc.

In short, there will be no bazooka for market bulls from the ECB in the foreseeable future.

ForexLive US wrap: Draghi squelches bond-buying hopes

noreply@blogger.com (annisa) — Thu, 08 Dec 2011 22:16:00 +0000

Written by Jamie Coleman
December 8, 2011 at 21:43 GMT

ECB cuts refi rate 25 bp, extends bank-lending to 3-year term, widens types of securities acceptable as collateral
Draghi says he did not signal to EU Parliament last week that he would buy bonds if EU stiffened fiscal rules
Draghi says must respect spirit of law which prevents ECB lending to governments; that includes lending to the IMF, ECB is not an IMF member
US weekly jobless claims fall to 381,000, lowest since September 2008
US wholesale inventories rose 1.6% in October
EBA: European banks need to raise total of EUR 115 bln in fresh capital
EU and IMF to make joint mission to Hungary on Monday; may lead to aid package
Austrian FinMin: Chances of EU-27 Treaty change “not good”
EU draft suggests banking license to be granted to ESM, sparks EUR/USD rally
Germany immediately denies ESM banking license will be allowed
S&P 500 falls 2.1% to 1234; Milan falls
US 10-year note falls 0.6 bp in yield to 1.97%; Italian yields spike 46 bp to 6.53%
WTI falls $2.40 to $98.07; gold slides $33 to $1708

What a day. EUR/USD opened in NY in the 1.3380. It spiked to 1.3460, just far enough to trigger some weak stops, after very upbeat weekly jobless claims before sliding sharply a short while later as new ECB chief Draghi did his best Bundesbanker imitation and stated that he had not signaled a willingness to rescue the euro zone bond market if the EU got its fiscal house in order. He also denied that the ECB or national central banks would lend to the IMF so as to evade laws prohibiting the ECB from monetizing government debt.
Hopes for a two-pronged attack on the sovereign debt crisis (ECB and EU) were dashed, leaving the summiteers in Brussels all alone to come up with a solution. Few expect a quick resolution to come via political channels.
EUR/USD dipped as low as 1.3289 before steadying. We began to drift higher on short-covering in late afternoon, finally triggering stops above 1.3350 up to 1.3375 after it was reported that an EU draft statement said the ESM would be granted a banking license (something Germany has adamantly opposed) as well as being brought forward to run simultaneously with the EFSF for year.
Germany swiftly rejected that they would accept those provisions, sending EUR/USD slumping back into the 1.3330s. We end in the 1.3345 region.
AUD/USD was violently whipsawed during the US session, breaking through stops at 1.0330/40 level and spiking to 1.0377 after the US jobless claims data. It fell out of bed as the ECB threw cold-water on the idea of a bond-buying spree. We fell as low as 1.0146 late in the day. Some stops were triggered on the 1.0150 break. More are seen in the 1.0225/40 area.

Analisa Mata Uang

noreply@blogger.com (annisa) — Tue, 29 Dec 2009 03:57:00 +0000

US Dollar (USD)

Dollar Amerika Serikat (USD) adalah mata uang resmi Amerika Serikat. USD juga digunakan secara luas di dunia internasional sebagai kurs cadangan devisa di luar AS.
Penerbitan uang USD dikontrol oleh sistem perbankan Federal Reserve. Simbol yang paling umum digunakan untuk dollar AS adalah lambang dollar ($). Kode ISO 4217 untuk Dollar AS adalah USD.
AS adalah salah satu dari banyak negara yang menggunakan mata uang bernama Dollar. Beberapa negara lainnya menggunakan USD sebagai mata uang resmi mereka, dan banyak lainnya yang memperbolehkannya digunakan dalam kapasitas legal de facto.
Kata buck umumnya digunakan oleh orang Amerika untuk merujuk kepada satu dollar AS dalam percakapan sehari-hari (informal).
USD adalah mata uang yang paling banyak diperjual-belikan diseluruh dunia.

Euro (EUR/USD)

Euro adalah mata uang yang dipakai di 16 negara anggota Uni Eropa. Secara giral, mata uang ini mulai dipakai sejak tanggal 1 Januari 1999, tetapi secara fisik baru dipakai pada tanggal 1 Januari 2002. Uang kertas Euro di mana-mana rupanya sama, tetapi uang logamnya di belakang berbeda-beda. Uang logam setiap negara diberi lambangnya sendiri. Negara-negara yang menggunakan mata uang ini adalah: Jerman, Irlandia, Belanda, Perancis, Luxemburg, Austria, Finlandia, Belgia, Italia, Portugal, Spanyol, Yunani, Slovenia, Siprus, Malta, Slowakia, Andorra, Monako, San Marino, Vatikan.
Negara utama di Euro Zone adalah Perancis, Italia, Jerman, dan Spanyol.
Lebih dari 500 juta orang menggunakan mata uang Euro.
EUR/USD adalah pasangan mata uang yang paling banyak diperjual-belikan dalam pasar valuta asing. Meliputi sekitar 50% dari seluruh aktivitas perdagangan mata uang dunia.
Nilai EUR/USD terutama dipengaruhi oleh US Dollar Index. US Dollar Index terdiri dari Euro 57.6%, Yen 13.6%, Pound sterling 11.9%, Canadian dollar 9.1%, Swedish krona 4.2% dan Swiss franc 3.6%. (AUD & NZD tidak termasuk dalam indeks).
Jika USD melemah maka EUR menjadi mata uang yang signifikan menguat karena merupakan mata uang terbanyak diperdagangkan setelah USD. Sebaliknya jika USD menguat maka EUR akan melemah dengan signifikan.

Pound Sterling (GBP/USD)

Pound Sterling atau Pounds saja, sering pula disebut “Cable” adalah mata uang Britania Raya. Mata uang Pound sterling adalah mata uang tertua di dunia yang telah ada dan tidak berubah sejak 600 tahun terakhir. Kata "pound" dan "sterling" sendiri merujuk pada logam perak seberat satu pound yang digunakan sebagai nilai pembanding mata uang tersebut. Pada masa modern, nilai Pound Sterling tidak lagi dikaitkan dengan nilai perak dalam berat tertentu - melainkan ditentukan oleh mekanisme pasar berdasarkan penawaran dan permintaan. Pihak yang paling bertanggung jawab atas sirkulasi dan nilai tukar Pound Sterling adalah Bank of England selaku bank sentral. Britania Raya adalah anggota Uni Eropa, namun tidak menggunakan Euro sebagai mata uang, setelah referendum yang dilaksanakan mengindikasikan keengganan penduduk negara ini untuk menggunakan mata uang Euro.
London merupakan pusat keuangan terbesar didunia, terutama jasa perbankan dan asuransi. Karena itu Pound sangat sensitif terhadap “Equity market news”.
Pound merupakan satu-satunya mata uang yang nilainya tidak berkorelasi dengan perdagangan komoditi.

Yen (USD/JPY)

Japanese Yen (JPY) merupakan merupakan mata uang negara Jepang.
Yen adalah mata uang ketiga terbanyak diperdagangkan setelah USD dan EUR. Transaksi mata uang Yen berjumlah sekitar 17% dari total aktivitas perdagangan mata uang dunia.
Dalam jangka panjang, Yen berkorelasi dengan "Equity market".

Dollar Australia (AUD/USD)

Australian Dollar (AUD) merupakan mata uang negara Australia.
Dollar Australia merupakan "Commodity Currency". Karena Australia adalah negara penghasil emas terbesar di dunia maka Dollar Australia sangat dipengaruhi pergerakan harga emas. Jika harga emas naik maka Dollar Australia cenderung akan menguat dan sebaliknya.

Forex News Trading

noreply@blogger.com (annisa) — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 03:59:00 +0000

What is Forex News Trading, and Why is it important to you, as a trader?

Forex News Trading, or Fundamental News Trading, is the primary driver of currency market movements. Forex market is driven by high impact news events, and by understanding how to take advantage of these events, you can increase your profitability and avoid many costly mistakes. Many novice day traders come to a rude awakening realizing the importance of news events only after seeing a perfectly profitable trade turn into a huge loss in a matter of seconds, whereas experienced traders add to their daily profits in a consistent manner, almost like clockwork… (as a matter of fact, most high impact news releases are scheduled at the same time every month, so yes, like clockwork.)

Forex News Trading, in a nutshell, is basically taking advantage of market volatility in the event of a surprise. Almost all high impact news events have a Forecast, or Consensus Number, which is usually an average number derived from a survey of economists, usually done by news agencies such as Reuters or Bloomberg. This Forecast number, represents what the market as a whole is expecting the Actual release to be; therefore, in the event that the Actual Release turns out to be different than the Forecast, we have a surprise in the market… Since Forex trading is basically Futures Trading of currencies, market speculators will price in the surprise immediately in the direction of the surprise, and create an opportunity for traders to make some pips.

News Surprise Factor, Deviation
In order to trade these news events successfully and profitably, traders must concentrate on high impact news releases with high probability of A) Moving the Market and B) Predictable Reaction .

Moving the Market: Since there are literally hundreds of news events scheduled around the calendar month, it is important to trade only the high impact ones that are most likely to move the market. Do not waste time on ALL news events since they may or may not move the market, and because Forex market is sometimes sentiment driven, lesser news reports might not have adequate effects to counter the predominant pre-market trend.
Predicatable Reaction: Based on historical reaction, high impact news events will generally move a certain amount of pips (or points) if the surprise difference from the consensus number to the actual release is by a certain deviation. For instance, if the UK Retail Sales Consensus is at 0.5% and we are looking for a Deviation of 0.6%, we’ll BUY GBP/USD if we get a 1.1% release and SELL GBP/USD if we get a -0.1% release.

Therefore, as Fundamental Forex Traders, we always pick the right news releases to trade, wait for the right deviation, and for the right amount of pips in profit.

As a Novice News Trader, What should you do next?

Look for an economic Calendar such as Econoday or Forexfactory.
Get a news wire service such as TradetheNews or use the freebie from Forexfactory (you need to refresh the page at release time).
Be at your trading station at least 30 minutes prior to high impact news events and watch market reactions.
Record market reaction, such as how many pips did a certain currency pair move based on the difference of forecast to actual release.
Repeat until you have collected 12 ~ 24 months of data.

There is actually an easier way, since I’ve done these steps already. I have a list of tradeable news releases along with a “safe” deviation and expected pips range. You can find more information from my Ebook “Definitive Guide to Fundamental News Trading“.

Fundamental News events are the primary driver of the currency market. A series of fundamental news in the same direction, such as better US Job Report, better US Housing Report, better US economy report, etc… will tend to create a long term trend of US Dollar rally… By understanding these news events, a trader could easily add 20 ~ 50 pips of profit daily to his/her account.

Henry Liu -www.henryliuforex.com

5M Intraday Strategy by Phillip Nel

noreply@blogger.com (annisa) — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 01:09:00 +0000

Aturan yang harus diikuti dalam menerapkan strategi ini adalah sebagai berikut:

Gunakan garis 50 SMA
Gunakan garis 21 EMA
Gunakan garis 10 EMA
Tetapkan stop loss sebesar 6 pip ditambah spread.
Tetapkan target profit sebesar 8 - 10 pip.
Lakukan maksimal 3 transaksi perhari.
Pair yang cocok untuk strategi ini adalah EURUSD dan GBPUSD

Lakukan transaksi jika sudut garis 50 SMA lebih dari 20 derajat dan harga sedang berbalik ke zona 21 EMA. Transaksi buy jika garis 10 EMA dan 21 EMA berada diatas garis 50 SMA dan transaksi sell jika sebaliknya.

MACD H4 Trading System

noreply@blogger.com (annisa) — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 23:57:00 +0000

Sistem ini diciptakan oleh Phillip Nel, seorang yang sangat berpengalaman dalam perdagangan saham dan mata uang. Pairs yang disarankan adalah GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF dan EUR/JPY (jika berani mengambil risiko lebih besar).

Sesuai dengan namanya, sistem ini menggunakan MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) sebagai komponen utama dan sebagai dasar untuk entry (open position). Untuk menutup posisi (close position) sistem ini menggunakan garis Moving Average (MA).

Setting sistem ini adalah sebagai berikut:

a. MACD diatur nilainya menjadi "Fast EMA=5", Slow EMA=13, dan MACD EMA=1.

b. Moving Average yang digunakan adalah: EMA 8, EMA 21, EMA 365, SMA 89 dan SMA 200

(Untuk mudahnya anda bisa download file "4h_MACD_FX_Strategy" pada www.fxtradeblog.com).

Penjelasan lengkap tentang sistem trading ini dapat anda temukan pada www.forexfactory.com. Kami sarankan agar anda mensetup sistem ini pada platform Metatrader agar terlihat lebih atraktif dan mudah dibaca.

memilih broker forex

noreply@blogger.com (annisa) — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 11:47:00 +0000

Sebelum kita memilih untuk memakai sebuah broker alangkah baiknya jika terlebih dahulu kita mengerti kata-kata/kalimat yang sering kita temui dalam iklan sebuah broker (dealer) seperti berikut ini:

- Fixed spread

- No Commission

- Interest income on unused balance

- Swap free

- Secure fund under "country" regulation

- ECN broker - No dealing desk

- Mini and micro account type

- Most popular trading platform

- Instant order execution

Penjelasan berikut mudah-mudahan dapat memberikan jawaban atas pertanyaan-pertanyaan tersebut.

Spread

Spread adalah selisih antara nilai beli (bid) dan jual (offer). Jika selisih tersebut selalu tetap berarti broker memang melaksanakan sistim "fixed spread". Namun jika selisih tersebut berubah-ubah berarti broker menjalankan bisnis tidak sesuai dengan iklannya. Agar anda dapat mengetahui apakah spread tetap atau berubah-ubah maka bertradinglah dengan demo account, dan perhatikan spread pada saat diumumkannya news (berita) yang mempunyai pengaruh signifikan seperti Non-Farm Employment Change, Retail Sales, GDP, Interest Rate, Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), dan Core Durable Good Order.

Komisi (Commission)

Komisi adalah imbalan yang diterima oleh broker atas setiap transaksi yang dilakukan oleh trader. Dalam trading platform sebuah broker umumnya mencantumkan item komisi ini. Jika nilainya selalu nol berarti broker telah menepati isi iklannya. Kemudian timbul pertanyaan, "Apa bisa broker mempertahankan bisnisnya jika tidak mendapatkan komisi?". "Apakah broker bisa mempetahankan bisnisnya jika hanya mendapat penghasilan dari spread saja?". Pada jaman sebelum era "online forex trading" dan "saat volume transaksi harian forex trading masih kecil" rasanya memang tidak mungkin broker bisa menjalankan bisnisnya tidak mendapat komisi dan hanya mengandalkan spread saja. Namun sekarang situasinya sudah jauh berbeda, untuk menjalankan suatu transaksi broker tidak lagi memerlukan biaya besar, semua sudah serba otomatis. Selain itu sangat besarnya volume transaksi harian menyebabkan besarnya penghasilan yang diperoleh broker walaupun hanya dari spread.

Contoh broker yang tidak mengenakan komisi, antara lain adalah: Marketiva, IG Market, dan FX Clearing

Penghasilan bunga atas margin tidak terpakai (Interest on unused balance/free margin)

Sebagaimana telah dijelaskan sebelumnya, langkah pertama jika kita ingin melakukan trading adalah menyetor sejumlah dana sebagai jaminan atas transaksi kita. Jika kita kita melakukan transaksi maka sebagian dana akan berkurang karena menjadi jaminan atas kemungkinan kerugian kita, sebagian dana lain yang belum menjadi jaminan itulah yang akan mendapatkan hasil bunga.

Swap Free

SWAP yaitu suatu kontrak pembelian atau penjualan valas dengan harga spot yang dikombinasikan dengan pembelian antara penjualan valas yang sama dengan harga forward. Swap free artinya setiap transaksi dilakukan dengan harga spot, tidak ada bunga, dan sama sekali tidak dikaitkan dengan harga forward (harga diwaktu yang akan datang).

Contoh broker yang mengadakan fasilitas swap free adalah FXCast, Easy-Forex, FastBrokers, dan ForexYard.

Secure Fund Under Regulation

Artinya broker adalah badan hukum yang didirikan di suatu negara tertentu sehingga diawasi oleh badan pengawas perdagangan valuta asing negara tersebut. Dengan demikian keamanan dana yang diinvestasikan menjadi terjamin. Contoh badan pengawas adalah Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) - USA, National Futures Association (NFA) - USA, Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) - USA, Swiss Federal Department of Finance - Swiss, dan Financial Service Authority (FSA) - Inggris. Untuk keamanan dana anda dan kenyamanan dalam bertrading pilihlah broker yang memiliki regulasi yang jelas, seperti Interbank FX, IKON Global Market, Alpari UK, dan MG Financial Group.

Dealing Desk

Dealing desk adalah suatu bagian dalam broker forex yang mengatur order sebelum meneruskannya ke pasar. Sebaiknya kita berhati-hati dengan broker yang menjalankan dealing desk karena ada kemungkinan mereka tidak meneruskan order ke pasar/bank dan melawan tradernya sendiri atau menjadi bandar.

ECN Broker - Non Dealing Desk

Non dealing desk artinya broker tidak mempunyai bagian yang mengatur order sebelum meneruskannya ke pasar. Setiap order akan langsung diteruskan ke pasar. Biasanya broker yang menjalankan sistem ini mempunyai "bank licence" dan mempunyai Electronic Communication Network (ECN) dengan bank tertentu. Hampir dapat dipastikan bahwa broker yang non dealing desk adalah sebuah ECN Broker. Broker yang menjalankan sistem ini umumnya hanya mengadakan regular account, tidak ada mini atau micro karena pasar tidak melayani order dalam jumlah kecil. Contoh broker ECN adalah: HotSpotFX, DukasCopy, Avail Trading Corp (ATC Brokers), MB Trading, EFX Group, Interactive Brokers, dan Gain Capital Group.

Mini / Micro Account

Jika dalam iklan broker terdapat kata-kata tersebut berarti broker menyediakan "Akun Mini" dan "Akun Mikro".

Jika anda trading dengan ukuran mini lot, 1 mini lot = 10.000 unit dari base currency, maka nilai 1 pip adalah USD 1 untuk EUR/USD.

Jika anda trading dengan ukuran mikro lot, 1 micro lot = 1.000 unit dari base currency, maka nilai 1 pip adalah USD 0,10 untuk EUR/USD.

Trading Platform

Merupakan semua program dan fasilitas teknis yang menyediakan informasi trading tentang pasar keuangan secara realtime, yang memungkinkan untuk membuat transaksi, mejabarkan kewajiban antara trader dan broker/dealer, serta ketundukan pada syarat dan ketentuan yang berlaku.

Saat ini sudah banyak software trading platform yang masing-masing ada kelebihan dan kekurangannya. Contoh software trading platform antara lain adalah MetaTrader 4 (digunakan oleh broker Interbank FX, ATC Broker, FXCast, Fast Brokers, MB Trading, dll), Hotspot FXr (digunakan HotSpotFX), Streamster (digunakan Marketiva), SWFX (digunakan DukasCopy).

Jika anda memilih menjadi trader yang banyak menggunakan analisa teknikal (teknikal indikator) sebaiknya memakai broker yang menggunakan MetaTrader 4. Jika anda menyenangi trading sambil chatting dengan trader lain kami sarankan agar menggunakan broker Marketiva. Anda bebas memilih trading platform yang sesuai dengan pribadi anda.

Instant Order Execution

Artinya setiap order beli (bid) atau jual (offer) akan langsung dilaksanakan, tidak ada keterlambatan proses. Untuk membuktikan kebenaran hal ini anda perlu menjalankan demo account.

Berikut ini adalah beberapa petunjuk dalam memilih broker yang sesuai dengan keinginan anda:

Tentukan berapa jumlah dana awal yang ingin anda investasikan dalam forex trading. Jika investasi anda kurang dari USD 3.000 sebaiknya anda memilih broker yang menyediakan Akun Mini atau Akun Mikro. Jika investasi anda lebih dari USD 3.000 anda sebaiknya memilih broker yang hanya menyediakan Akun Standar.
Jika memungkinkan pilihlah broker yang non dealing desk dan mempunyai "Bank License".
Sebelum anda menyetorkan dana anda ke rekening broker, cobalah trading dengan akun demo selama 3 - 6 bulan untuk memperhatikan jalannya software platform, spread, komisi, swap, eksekusi order, dan bunga. Apakah semua ketentuan yang dimuat dalam iklan, website, dan perjanjian layanan telah dilaksanakan oleh broker.
Pelajari perjanjian layanan dan yakinkan diri anda bahwa broker yang akan anda pilih benar-benar broker yang berada dalam pengawasan badan regulasi yang valid. Selain itu juga perlu diketahui dinegara mana domisili broker dan lokasi servernya. Untuk mengetahui lokasi server dan IP dapat digunakan www.domaintools.com.
Lakukan pencarian melalui internet (biasanya melalui www.google.com) untuk mendapatkan informasi apakah broker yang ingin anda pilih pernah melakukan forex scam.

Dengan mempelajari penjelasan tersebut diatas kami berharap agar anda tidak salah dalam menentukan broker anda.

why does the forex market move?

noreply@blogger.com (annisa) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 06:22:00 +0000

This is not a trick question. For instance, has it ever occurred to you after watching the price action on EUR/USD for days, seeing it go from 1.5300 to 1.5550, and ask yourself that question?

Well, I have and the simple answer is that there are more orders BUYING EUR/USD than SELLING, so the price went up from 1.5300 to 1.5550 based on more demand and less supply.

Then, it dawned on me that for every price action, a tick, or a pip, there are orders being filled. The market is traveling to the direction where it gets more orders. Now think of this like taxi cabs instead of subway or a train. The orders are dictating where the market goes, not the market making stops at every pip and see if there are orders. If there aren't any orders, market will not even travel there in the first place.

The real question is why the orders are piling up one way? The answer, of this supply; demand symptom that we are seeing of more demands on the EUR/USD is the key to understanding Forex Market.

Take a moment and think about it. The reason why EUR/USD is moving up is because the market thinks (perceives) that EUR is more valuable than USD. That is why it is getting bid up. The real underlying question is: Why does the market think EUR is more valuable than USD?

Here is the real answer: Forex Market moves because of fundamental news. If there are no news releases, there would be practically no movements in the Forex market because the value of every currency pair would be fixed, with no expectation of better or worse, the market will stay at a standstill.

So, we've come to a full circle now illustrating WHY the market moves. To put it in a different perspective, Forex Market moves because it is constantly trying to reach equilibrium with news events, pricing in surprises in fundamental news and sentiments. In other words "The Price EUR/USD (or any currency pair) is trading at is NOT its real value, but a perceived future value, an estimated value that the market has placed on it, as results of past, present, and future (estimated) events.

That's why it's so important to understand Fundamental news. Every high impact news release changes the perceived value of the currency, understanding these fundamentals will give you a bird's eye view of the market and allow you to place trades and stay on the right side of the market…

from: www.newsprofiteer.com

Big Dog 14.00 - 16.00 USD Breakout Strategy. (Around US OPEN)

noreply@blogger.com (annisa) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 06:11:00 +0000

Ini adalah strategi yang simpel dan hanya menggunakan indikator standar yang ada pada platform Metatrader. Potensi profit harian sekitar 30 - 50 pips.

Langkah-langkah yang harus dilakukan adalah sbb:

1. Grafik M15 untuk pair yang terkait dengan USD, misalkan GBPUSD dan EURUSD.

2. Gambar garis vertikal jam 14:00 pada grafik.

3. Gambar garis vertikal jam 16:00 pada grafik.

4. Gambar garis horisontal pada candle/bar tertinggi diantara kedua garis vertikal.

5. Gambar garis horisontal pada candle/bar terendah diantara kedua garis vertikal.

Selanjutnya buat sebuah buy stop order pada harga tertinggi dan sell stop order pada harga terendah. Stop loss untuk buy stop order adalah garis horisontal terendah dan stop loss untuk sell stop adalah garis horisontal tertinggi.

Target profit idealnya sekitar 30 - 50 pips atau tidak ditentukan target jika menurut prediksi anda bisa lebih dari 50 pips. Trailing Stop adalah 15 pips, jika anda menggunakan platform Metatrader.

faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi nilai tukar (kurs)

noreply@blogger.com (annisa) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 05:54:00 +0000

Terdapat 5 kelompok utama yang dapat mempengaruhi nilai tukar (pergerakan nilai mata uang), yaitu:

1. Perbedaan penawaran dan permintaan

Valuta asing (forex) sebagai benda ekonomi mempunyai permintaan dan penawaran pada pasar forex (forex market).
Sumber penawaran (supply) terdiri dari:

- ekspor barang/jasa yang menghasilkan forex; dan

- impor modal (capital import) dan transfer valas lainnya.

Sumber permintaan (demand) terdiri dari:

- impor barang/jasa yang menggunakan forex; dan

- ekspor modal (capital export) dan transfer valas lainnya.

Jika permintaan akan suatu mata uang meningkat maka nilai mata uang tersebut akan menguat, dan akan terjadi sebaliknya jika penawaran akan suatu mata uang yang meningkat.

2. Posisi neraca pembayaran (Balance of payment)

Neraca pembayaran (balance of payment) adalah suatu catatan yang disusun secara sistematis tentang semua transaksi ekonomi internasional yang meliputi perdagangan, keuangan, dan moneter antara penduduk suatu negara dengan penduduk luar negeri untuk suatu periode tertentu, biasanya satu tahun.

Umumnya, struktur neraca pembayaran suatu negara adalah sebagai berikut:

I. Current account (1 + 2 + 3)

1. Trade balance (nilai ekspor dikurangi nilai impor)

2. Service account

3. Unilateral account

II. Capital account (1 - 2)

1. Capital import

2. Capital export

III. Perubahan cadangan devisa

IV. Error dan omission

V. Monetary account

Bagi kalangan bisnis, biasanya yang diperhatikan terutama adalah trade balance, current account, dan capital account.

3. Tingkat inflasi (Inflation rate)

Berikut ini adalah ilustrasi tentang bagaimana tingkat inflasi mempengaruhi forex; Misalkan tingkat inflasi di Amerika Serikat sebesar 4%, sedangkan tingkat inflasi di Inggris adalah 1,5%. Barang-barang yang diperdagangkan di Amerika Serikat dan Inggris relatif sama dan substitusi.

Dalam situasi ini maka harga barang di Amerika Serikat akan lebih mahal. Hal ini akan menimbulkan kecenderungan para pengusaha/pedagang untuk membeli (mengimpor) dari Inggris. Impor yang meningkat akan menyebabkan bertambahnya permintaan akan GBP sehingga nilai GBP akan menguat terhadap USD.

4. Tingkat bunga (Interest rate)

Bagaimana tingkat bunga mempengaruhi forex adalah hampir sama dengan bagaimana tingkat inflasi mempengaruhi forex. Jika tingkat bunga suatu negara lebih tinggi dari tingkat bunga di negara lain maka ada kecenderungan dana dari negara yang tingkat bunganya lebih rendah akan masuk ke negara tersebut. Hal ini menyebabkan bertambahnya permintaan akan mata uang yang tingkat bunganya lebih tinggi sehingga nilai mata uang negara tersebut menjadi menguat.

5. Tingkat pendapatan

Jika pertumbuhan pendapatan di suatu negara meningkat maka akan menyebabkan meningkatnya konsumsi atas berbagai macam barang dan jasa. Jika tidak terjadi peningkatan penawaran barang/jasa maka akan memicu impor barang/jasa dari negara lain. Dengan meningkatnya impor barang/jasa maka terjadi kenaikan permintaan mata uang negara eksportir. Peningkatan permintaan mata uang negara eksportir pada akhirnya akan menaikan nilai tukar mata uang negara eksportir tersebut.

6. Pengawasan pemerintah (Intervention)

Pengawasan pemerintah biasanya dilakukan melalui berbagai bentuk kebijakan moneter, fiskal, dan perdagangan luar negeri. Misalnya pengawasan lalu lintas devisa, peningkatan trade barrier, pengetatan jumlah uang beredar (tight money policy), perubahan tingkat bunga, dll. Kebijakan-kebijakan tersebut diharapkan akan mempengaruhi permintaan atau penawaran valuta asing yang pada akhirnya akan mempengaruhi nilai tukar mata uang.

7. Ekspektasi dan isu/rumor

Adanya ekspektasi (harapan) untuk berubahnya sesuatu indikator ekonomi akan mempengaruhi nilai mata uang. Demikian pula halnya dengan isu/rumor politik dan ekonomi yang berkembang dimasyarakat dapat mempengaruhi nilai mata uang.

fatwa majelis ulama indonesia tentang perdagangan valas

noreply@blogger.com (annisa) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 05:33:00 +0000

Fatwa Dewan Syari'ah Nasional Majelis Ulama Indonesia no: 28/DSNMUI/III/2002, tentang Jual Beli Mata Uang (Al-Sharf).

Menimbang :

1. Bahwa dalam sejumlah kegiatan untuk memenuhi berbagai keperluan, seringkali diperlukan transaksi jual-beli mata uang (al-sharf), baik antar mata uang sejenis maupun antar mata uang berlainan jenis.
2. Bahwa dalam 'urf tijari (tradisi perdagangan) transaksi jual beli mata uang dikenal beberapa bentuk transaksi yang status hukumnya dalam pandang ajaran Islam berbeda antara satu bentuk dengan bentuk lain.
3. Bahwa agar kegiatan transaksi tersebut dilakukan sesuai dengan ajaran Islam, DSN memandang perlu menetapkan fatwa tentang al-Sharf untuk dijadikan pedoman.

Mengingat :

" Firman Allah, QS. Al-Baqarah[2]:275: "...Dan Allah telah menghalalkan jual beli dan mengharamkan riba..."
" Hadis nabi riwayat al-Baihaqi dan Ibnu Majah dari Abu Sa'id al-Khudri:Rasulullah SAW bersabda, 'Sesungguhnya jual beli itu hanya boleh dilakukan atas dasar kerelaan (antara kedua belah pihak)' (HR. al-baihaqi dan Ibnu Majah, dan dinilai shahih oleh Ibnu Hibban)."
" Hadis Nabi Riwayat Muslim, Abu Daud, Tirmidzi, Nasa'i, dan Ibn Majah, dengan teks Muslim dari 'Ubadah bin Shamit, Nabi s.a.w bersabda: "(Juallah) emas dengan emas, perak dengan perak, gandum dengan gandum, sya'ir dengan sya'ir, kurma dengan kurma, dan garam dengan garam (denga syarat harus) sama dan sejenis serta secara tunai. Jika jenisnya berbeda, juallah sekehendakmu jika dilakukan secara tunai."
" Hadis Nabi riwayat Muslim, Tirmidzi, Nasa'i, Abu Daud, Ibnu Majah, dan Ahmad, dari Umar bin Khattab, Nabi s.a.w bersabda: "(Jual -beli) emas dengan perak adalah riba kecuali (dilakukan) secara tunai."
" Hadis Nabi riwayat Muslim dari Abu Sa'id al-Khudri, Nabi s.a.w bersabda: Janganlah kamu menjual emas dengan emas kecuali sama (nilainya) dan janganlah menambahkan sebagian atas sebagian yang lain; janganlah menjual perak dengan perak kecuali sama (nilainya) dan janganlah menambahkan sebagaian atas sebagian yang lain; dan janganlah menjual emas dan perak tersebut yang tidak tunai dengan yang tunai."
" Hadis Nabi riwayat Muslim dari Bara' bin 'Azib dan Zaid bin Arqam: Rasulullah saw melarang menjual perak dengan emas secara piutang (tidak tunai)."
" Hadis Nabi riwayat Tirmidzi dari Amr bin Auf: "Perjanjian dapat dilakukan di antara kaum muslimin, kecuali perjanjian yang mengharamkan yang halal atau menghalalkan yang haram; dan kaum muslimin terikat dengan syarat-syarat mereka kecuali syarat yang mengharamkan yang halal atau menghalalkan yang haram."

" Ijma. Ulama sepakat (ijma') bahwa akad al-sharf disyariatkan dengan syarat-syarat tertentu."

Memperhatikan :

1. Surat dari pimpinah Unit Usaha Syariah Bank BNI no. UUS/2/878
2. Pendapat peserta Rapat Pleno Dewan Syari'ah Nasional pada Hari Kamis, tanggal 14 Muharram 1423H/ 28 Maret 2002.

MEMUTUSKAN

Dewan Syari'ah Nasional Menetapkan : FATWA TENTANG JUAL BELI MATA UANG (AL-SHARF).

Pertama : Ketentuan Umum
Transaksi jual beli mata uang pada prinsipnya boleh dengan ketentuan sebagai berikut:
1. Tidak untuk spekulasi (untung-untungan).
2. Ada kebutuhan transaksi atau untuk berjaga-jaga (simpanan).
3. Apabila transaksi dilakukan terhadap mata uang sejenis maka nilainya harus sama dan secara tunai (at-taqabudh).
4. Apabila berlainan jenis maka harus dilakukan dengan nilai tukar (kurs) yang berlaku pada saat transaksi dan secara tunai .
Kedua : Jenis-jenis transaksi Valuta Asing
1. Transaksi SPOT, yaitu transaksi pembelian dan penjualan valuta asing untuk penyerahan pada saat itu (over the counter) atau penyelesaiannya paling lambat dalam jangka waktu dua hari. Hukumnya adalah boleh, karena dianggap tunai, sedangkan waktu dua hari dianggap sebagai proses penyelesaian yang tidak bisa dihindari dan merupakan transaksi internasional.
2. Transaksi FORWARD, yaitu transaksi pembelian dan penjualan valas yang nilainya ditetapkan pada saat sekarang dan diberlakukan untuk waktu yang akan datang, antara 2x24 jam sampai dengan satu tahun. Hukumnya adalah haram, karena harga yang digunakan adalah harga yang diperjanjikan (muwa'adah) dan penyerahannya dilakukan di kemudian hari, padahal harga pada waktu penyerahan tersebut belum tentu sama dengan nilai yang disepakati, kecuali dilakukan dalam bentuk forward agreement untuk kebutuhan yang tidak dapat dihindari (lil hajah).
3. Transaksi SWAP yaitu suatu kontrak pembelian atau penjualan valas dengan harga spot yang dikombinasikan dengan pembelian antara penjualan valas yang sama dengan harga forward. Hukumnya haram, karena mengandung unsur maisir (spekulasi).
4. Transaksi OPTION yaitu kontrak untuk memperoleh hak dalam rangka membeli atau hak untuk menjual yang tidak harus dilakukan atas sejumlah unit valuta asing pada harga dan jangka waktu atau tanggal akhir tertentu. Hukumnya haram, karena mengandung unusru maisir (spekulasi).
Ketiga : Fatwa ini berlaku sejak tanggal ditetapkan, dengan ketentuan jika dikemudian hari ternyata terdapat kekeliruan, akan diubah dan disempurnakan sebagaimana mestinya.

Ditetapkan di : Jakarta
Tanggal : 14 Muharram 1423 H / 28 Maret 2002 M
DEWAN SYARI'AH NASIONAL
MAJELIS ULAMA INDONESIA

analisa teknikal (analisa grafik)

noreply@blogger.com (annisa) — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 06:05:00 +0000

Analisa teknikal adalah analisa yang dimaksudkan untuk memprediksi pergerakan harga diwaktu yang akan datang dengan menggunakan perhitungan matematis. Perhitungan matematis tersebut diterjemahkan kedalam sebuah grafik. Karena menggunakan sarana grafik sebagai alat untuk menganalisa maka analisa teknikal disebut juga analisa grafik (chart analysis).
Jika analisa fundamental menggunakan indikator ekonomi sebagai alat analisa maka analisa teknikal menggunakan indikator teknikal. Berdasarkan kegunaannya, indikator terdiri dari:

Indikator yang berguna untuk mengidentifikasi saat mulai dan berakhirnya suatu trend, disebut sebagai trend indicator.
Indikator yang gunanya untuk mengidentifikasi apakah sudah terjadi jenuh jual (oversell) atau jenuh beli (overbought), seringkali disebut sebagai momentum indicator.
Indikator yang gunanya untuk mengamati kekuatan pergerakan harga dalam suatu periode tertentu, disebut volume indicator.

Dalam prakteknya para trader seringkali menggabungkan ketiga jenis indikator dalam memprediksi pergerakan harga dimasa datang.

forex trading system

noreply@blogger.com (annisa) — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 05:27:00 +0000

Forex trading system adalah bagian dari rencana trading yang mengatur kapan dan pada tingkat harga berapa membuka transaksi dan menutupnya. Sebuah sistem trading bekerja berdasarkan signal yang diperoleh berdasarkan analisa fundamental dan atau analisa teknikal.
Terdapat dua jenis forex trading system yaitu discretionary trading system dan mechanical trading system. Discretionary system menganalisa aspek fundamental dan aspek teknikal, entry point dan exit point ditentukan berdasarkan opini yang dibuat oleh trader. Sedangkan dalam mechanical system cenderung lebih banyak berdasarkan analisa teknikal atau analisa matematis.
Sistem yang paling banyak digunakan adalah mechanical trading system karena relatif mudah dan tidak memerlukan keahlian dalam analisa fundamental yang mendalam.
Sebagai seorang Pemula, apakah juga harus membuat sendiri sistem trading? Kami sarankan untuk tidak membuat sendiri. Lebih baik jika mengadopsi sistem yang telah dibuat oleh para profesional dan menggunakannya sesuai dengan petunjuk yang telah ditetapkan. Saat ini sudah banyak mechanical trading system yang baik dan banyak digunakan para trader.