StormX Latest News

The Pacific Ocean’s Influence on Climate Change: How Low Will the PDO Go?

Jeremy Ross, PhD — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 03:11:00 +0000

Long-term variations in ocean circulations produce pronounced patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that directly impact weather and climate. The most influential long-term oceanic cycle is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a large-scale phenomenon in the North Pacific that produces inter-decadal oscillations of cool and warm SST anomalies, with each phase typically lasting 20 to 30 years. During the cool (negative) phase of the PDO, a large horseshoe-shaped area of cooler than average SST extends from the central equatorial tropics northeastward to the Mexican and U.S. coastlines, then northward along the Canadian and Alaskan coastlines. During the warm (positive) phase the pattern is reversed with warm SSTs replacing the cool SSTs. The Atlantic Ocean experiences a similar oscillation known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which has profound impacts on the number and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes as well as Arctic sea ice extent.

After a period of intense cooling in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, the PDO returned to the positive phase during the late 1970s and remained generally positive through the late 1990s. Since 1999, a transition into the cool phase has been underway, and during 2008 the transition was completed as recent observations of the coastal waters have been among the coolest in the past 109 years.

The average PDO index from April 2008 to March 2009 was -1.46, the third lowest yearly averaged March value since 1900, trailing only March of 1956 and 1951. For the next two or three decades, North Pacific SST anomalies will favor the negative phase, and will likely produce exceptional climate patterns and weather events that have not been observed in more than three decades.

The strongly negative PDO was influential in shaping North American climate during the past year. In 2008, Anchorage, Alaska, recorded only 2 days above 70 degrees F, the least number of days to exceed 70 since records began in 1917. The PDO strongly influenced the winter of 2008/2009 with dry conditions and warmth in the south central U.S. and snowy and colder than average temperatures in the Northern Plains. Although the PDO will continue to be the dominant climate driver for the remainder of 2009, its impacts will subside during the summer when the atmospheric flow weakens and climate is more strongly affected by local influences such as land conditions and proximity to water bodies.

The Storm Exchange science team has been quantitatively researching the climatic impacts of the cool and warm phases of the PDO. The University of Washington monthly PDO index begins in 1900, and by examining months in which the index is greater than 1 or less than -1, the PDO’s impacts on climate can be contrasted. Using historical global weather observation analyses since 1948, Storm Exchange compared surface temperatures and precipitation during the cool and warm phases of the PDO from January 1948 to March 2009. During the cool phase (PDO < -1) annual temperatures in North America are more likely to be cooler than average from the Northern Plains to the west coast and northward into Alaska and the western territories of Canada. Warmer than average temperatures typically prevail in the southern and eastern U.S. and eastern Canada. During the warm phase (PDO>1) the pattern is reversed with southeastern North America becoming cool and northwestern North America experiencing warmer than normal temperatures.

A similar quantitative analysis was constructed for precipitation, revealing that during the cool phase (PDO<-1) annual precipitation is more likely to be below average from California eastward to Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. More abundant precipitation was found in central Canada and in the Northern Plains. A priori knowledge of this information proved invaluable this past winter, as most of these temperature and precipitation scenarios were realized in North America during the winter of 2008/2009. The PDOs historical impacts were an essential element of the Storm Exchange World Climate Service seasonal outlooks.

The PDO is also found to be a global driver of temperature, partly because of its intimate link to the El Niño Southern Oscillation cycle. La Niña is more likely during periods of negative PDO, while periods of positive PDO yield more frequent and intense El Niño’s. Thus the tropical temperature anomalies are highly correlated with the PDO phase and in turn help produce quantifiable fluctuations in global average temperatures. From the warm to the cool PDO phase, global temperatures drop by around 0.3-0.35°F. Some may contend that these observed global temperature differences are explained by the global warming trend, as the PDO cool phase was centered in the 1950s and the PDO warm phase in the 1990s. However, it remains plausible and perhaps likely that the PDO may be an important cause of the global change and observed temperature trends during the latter half of the 20th century. Scientifically, an improved understanding of global climate change may be on the horizon, as another cool PDO phase has begun and its impacts on climate will be studied closely. If global warming ceases or cooling occurs during the next 20 years, the scientific community may come to realize that decadal fluctuations within the oceans may play a larger role in climate than is presently acknowledged. The first signs of the PDO’s impacts may already be occurring as satellite measurements of lower tropospheric temperatures derived by the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing System (RSS) show no temperature increases since 2002, and in fact show a slight cooling trend. With solar activity at a 100 year minimum and the PDO expected to remain negative for several decades, the cooling trend may persist. If it does, an inconvenient truth about climate change may emerge.

Drought in California’s Central Valley Intensifies

Daniel Greenstein — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 12:16:00 +0000

While California’s Central Valley has received near-normal rainfall since the start of April, drought since late last year is taking a toll on farmers in the region.

In Modesto, in the northern part of the valley, around a half inch of rain has fallen this month, but outside of February, rainfall has been below normal in every month since November. In fact, the drought has intensified since March 5th, as shown on the map below. The total since November 1st stands at 6.75”, over 4” below normal.

Around 30 miles west of Modesto, in the town of Tracy, alfalfa farmer Bob Moniz has his entire 45-acre field laying fallow. With water deliveries to farms severely restricted, he sees no hope for his crop. “Even if we get a little water this year, it’s too late to help us in this field,” Bob Moniz said. “We spent about $10,000 to plant the alfalfa, and that’s now money down the drain.”

Similar stories are playing out throughout the Valley, leading to significant unemployment of farmers. In the city of Mendota, to the west of Fresno, nearly 40% of the townspeople are jobless. In fact, town officials recently gave away 500 boxes of food for the needy, with one thousand residents showing up.

Unfortunately, dry weather is in store for the next 7-10 days across much of California, keeping fields dry and reservoirs low. Therefore, tight water restrictions are almost certain to remain in place as growers continue to suffer.

Severe flooding in North Dakota previously anticipated by Storm Exchange

Richard James, PhD — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 12:13:00 +0000

The melting of an exceptionally deep snowpack in North Dakota is leading to rapidly worsening flooding in the eastern part of the state. This scenario was outlined by Storm Exchange in the Early Spring Outlook released on January 20, 2009. Two months in advance, Storm Exchange stated that “The winter storms traversing the upper Midwest have left behind an exceptionally large snowpack in the Dakotas and upper Mississippi Valley, making spring floods on the Missouri River and its tributaries almost certain”.

www.stormx.com/SiteContent/WCS/StormExchange_EarlySpring_2009.pdf

A team of meteorologists at Storm Exchange continues to monitor the potential for ongoing spring flooding in the upper Midwest and also in New England. The latest data indicate that the remaining snowpack still contains the equivalent of 2-6 inches of rainfall across much of North Dakota, and over 10 inches in interior Maine. As the spring season advances, this water content will combine with ongoing precipitation to create a risk of further flooding. According to the Late Spring Outlook issued on March 18, Storm Exchange expects that above-average precipitation will continue through June from the upper Missouri basin to the Great Lakes, and in eastern New England. Flooding and excessive soil moisture is therefore likely to remain a concern in these areas in the months ahead.

Dry Weather Raises Wildfire Risk in Southern States

Jordan Rizzuto — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 12:00:00 +0000

Unusually dry conditions in Florida, Texas and southern California are creating rising wildfire risk in these states as the spring wildfire season approaches.

Posted on behalf of author Richard James:

Unusually dry conditions in Florida, Texas and southern California are creating rising wildfire risk in these states as the spring wildfire season approaches. In Florida, where wildfire activity peaks in May and June, less than half an inch of rain has fallen in the past month in most central and southern Florida locations. Consequently, the soil conditions are becoming increasingly parched. According to the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, the state has experienced over twice the wildfire activity this year compared to the same period last year.

The late spring weather outlook issued by Storm Exchange on March 18, 2009, offers little prospect of relief. Unusually dry and warm weather is expected to continue across the southern tier of states through June, implying a high likelihood that wildfire risk in Florida, California and Texas will continue to be elevated in the coming months.

Cold, Snow Cause UK Retail Sales to Decline

Daniel Greenstein — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 12:00:00 +0000

BOTTOM LINE WEATHER POINTS
– Very cold and snowy first half of February in England.
– Like-to-like sales declined 1.8% from February 2008.
– Clothing and homewares most significantly impacted.

An unusually cold and snowy first half of February caused a decline in British retail sales as many potential consumers remained indoors and out of the stores.

The two weeks of February featured temperatures as cold as 14ºF in southern England with frequent snow events. One such episode of snow on the 2nd produced 6 to 12 inches of snow in an around London. Through the 13th of the month, several more bouts of snow occurred in the UK producing 3-6” at a time. By the second half of February, temperatures turned above normal, reaching at least 50ºF each day through the end of the month in London.

However, a mild end to a snowy month was not enough to avoid retail losses. According to the British Retail Consortium (BRC), like-for-like sales declined by 1.8% last month versus that of February 2008. Many UK retailers hoped that the 1.1% increase in sales in January would lead to more promising results in the following months, but the BRC director-general states that the January results were likely a byproduct of deep post-holiday discounts.

Most deeply affected were nonfood items like clothing and homewares. Men’s and women’s apparel sales recorded their worst month since April 2008. However, the remarkable snow and cold boosted sales of shovels, boots, blankets, as well as hand and body care products.

Slowest Soybean Planting Is In The Wettest Midwest States

Gail Martell — Mon, 11 May 2009 05:12:00 +0000

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS: Good Night Report Monday May 11

United States soybeans were only 14% planted May 9 against 25% normally. Only two states Nebraska and Minnesota were ahead of schedule, while Illinois, Indiana and Ohio were at least 2 weeks behind normal.

Midwest soybean yields are not as sensitive to planting date as corn. Yield potential does not suffer much unless soybean planting is delayed until late May or June.

You may access Crop Progress Charts showing actual and 5-year average planting dates on the Storm X website every Monday after 3 pm CDT.

The worst delays were reported in the wettest states:

Rain Coming Too Late to Help Declining Argentina Soybean Production Estimates

Daniel Greenstein — Fri, 1 May 2009 08:20:00 +0000

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS: Wake-Up Weather for Friday, May 1st

Drought conditions persist Friday across the Argentina Belt as temperatures remain above normal. However, by Sunday, moisture will work its way northeastward through southern Argentina reaching the major soybean areas of Cordoba, Santa Fe, Entre Rios, and Buenos Aires by nightfall. Showers may continue on and off through Tuesday with 0.25” to 0.75” possible. This would mark the first measurable rainfall in the region in nearly two weeks. Nevertheless, with the soybean harvest more than halfway complete, this rain is likely coming too late to stop the declining crop prospects.

On Thursday, the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange reduced their Argentina soybean production to 34 million metric tons, while some private forecasters slashing it to 32MMT, a 30% reduction from 2008. The Vegetation Greenness Index reveals well below normal vegetation across the Argentina Grain Belt due to the worsening drought conditions.

Prospective plantings suggest U.S. soybean production up from 2008; corn production unchanged

Richard James, PhD — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 05:06:00 +0000

The March 31 prospective plantings report issued by the USDA provides valuable guidance concerning the planting intentions of agricultural producers across the nation. The prospective plantings report has been issued annually since the mid-1970’s, thereby providing a long history of acreage estimates. This lengthy track record can be used to analyze the relationship between crop production and estimated planted acres.

At the Storm Exchange Science Center, a set of proprietary statistical models was developed to obtain an early estimate of corn and soybean production based solely on the projected planted acres for each state. The historical performance of the models was carefully tested by developing a different model for each year since 1979, and excluding the current year in each instance. For corn and soybeans respectively, the correlation between the predicted and observed national production was 0.84 and 0.90, demonstrating that a useful estimate of production can be obtained solely from the prospective plantings report. The estimate should nevertheless be treated with caution, as evolving weather and soil conditions later in the growing season are also highly significant for the final production.

Using the acreage report that was released on March 31, 2009, preliminary estimates of this year’s corn and soybean production were calculated and are illustrated below. Results are shown only in states where the historical performance of the statistical model since 1979 produced a correlation of 0.65 or better between the predicted and observed production.

Thus according to the prospective planting data, soybean production is likely to be markedly higher than in 2008 across most of the northern tier of states, but slightly lower in the South. On a national basis, soybean production is expected to be 3.12 billion bushels, or 6.9 % higher than in 2008.

The prospective planting data for corn suggest that corn production is likely to be modestly reduced in the South and in the Great Plains states. Illinois is also likely to see reduced production, but the data from Iowa, Missouri and North Carolina suggest increased production over last year in these states.

The national corn production is expected to be 12.0 billion bushels, less than 1 % different from 2008.

A significant degree of uncertainty is inherent in these estimates, owing to the influence of weather variability throughout the growing season. The uncertainty in the current production estimates can be assessed using the historical performance of the statistical models. Illustrated below are the probability distributions of the 2009 production estimates; in each case, the probability of the final production falling between two values on the horizontal axis is proportional to the area under the curve between the two specified values. In the case of soybeans, there is a probability of 86 % that the final 2009 production will be greater than in 2008.

Will Canada produce another bumper canola crop?

Gail Martell — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 10:19:00 +0000

– Frozen prairie fields threaten to delay seeding
– Alberta drought may contribute to yield loss
– Canola area set to expand while wheat area declines
– Two bumper harvests in a row unlikely

Canadian growers produced a record canola harvest in 2008 and are striving for the same result in 2009. The area sown to canola this season will increase, at the expense of spring wheat, based on surveys conducted among prairie growers. Last year, production burgeoned to a record 12.6 million metric tons, thanks to excellent weather and an expansive crop area. The amount left over for exports is pegged at 6.7 million tons and 20% above average, according to USDA, after domestic consumption is accounted for.

Is it realistic to expect another bumper harvest? Last year’s yield was 15% above trend, thanks to an ideal cool and rainy summer. Indeed, flowering and pod filling proceeded without any significant moisture stress in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the 3 leading canola provinces. A warm and dry August harvest capped off a near-perfect growing season.

Delayed planting a worry

Growers will seed canola as soon as fields thaw, typically in late April and early May. It may take longer than usual for thawing this spring, due to a deep, penetrating frost. January-March temperatures were 4-7 F below normal on prairie farms. By contrast, winter temperatures were moderate last year in Alberta and western Saskatchewan encouraging rapid spring thawing.

Drought in Alberta

A 6-month drought in Alberta has produced steep soil moisture deficiencies that may come to bear, if summer rainfall is inadequate for crop needs. Alberta is the leading canola growing area and also a very high-yielding area, so drought is a threat to Canada canola potential. That being said, similar dryness was present in March, 2008, and a bumper harvest ensued. Exceptional heavy rainfall in June and July saved the day, supplying crop needs during flowering, pod setting and filling. Another bumper harvest in 2009 is unlikely, but it cannot be ruled out.

Top canola districts in Alberta are very dry. Area map from USDA.

Argentina soybean yield diminished in a dry March

Gail Martell — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 04:41:00 +0000

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS: Wake-Up Weather Monday, March 30

Argentina finally expecting showers: Scattered thunderstorms are expected to produce .75-1.25 inch of rainfall this week in Argentina’s top soy provinces Santa Fe and Cordoba, but this would be the first important rainfall in a month. Field moisture deteriorated badly with persistent heat and intense drying over the past 4 weeks. A significant portion of Argentina soybeans, around 25% of the planted area, was filling pods in mid and late March and deteriorated in a stressful environment. Storm Exchange sees Argentina soy output shrinking to 44.5 million metric tons from 46 million tons earlier.

Brazil soybean potential evaluated by local sources: Agroconsult of Brazil expects the national Brazilian soybean crop to finish at 57 million metric tons, after surveying 13 states. The leading soy state Mato Grosso did better than expected despite farmers using fewer inputs, said Agroconsult. The second biggest soy state Parana is expected to produce only 9.5 million tons, down sharply from 11.8 million tons in 2007-08, due an intense early summer drought. Rio Grande do Sul crop losses are not expected to be as bad as originally expected. The Rural Assistance Agency Emitar claims late summer rains were timely, improving soybean potential during pod filling. They have raised their estimate of RGDS soybeans to 8.4 million tons, up sharply from 7.7 million tons earlier.

Iowa Corn Planting Virtually Complete, 90% Emerged

Daniel Greenstein — Tue, 2 Jun 2009 12:25:00 +0000

Corn planting across Iowa is virtually complete according to the Monday afternoon USDA Crop Progress report. Furthermore, 90% of corn crop has emerged. Both figures are right on target for the start of June.

Additionally, 79% of Iowa corn was rated good to excellent. The state has benefitted from far drier conditions than has been the case to the east in Illinois and Indiana since planting began in April.

The driest areas have been in the northwest and west-central portions of the state, where at least 95% of the corn has emerged. Conversely, the southeast and south-central regions are the wettest with corn just 81% and 77% emerged, respectively, due to delayed planting.

Since Monday, rain has fallen across central and southern Iowa, with amounts generally less than a half inch. Another half inch or so is possible through Tuesday night in the south. Drier weather arrives for Wednesday through Friday, before a new storm system brings rainfall for the weekend. Over the next 7 days, temperatures may be as much as 10ºF below normal, which may slow down the emergence of corn in wet areas of southeastern Iowa.

Grain Prices Respond to China and the Dollar

Jordan Rizzuto — Mon, 1 Jun 2009 11:14:00 +0000

For this month’s commentary we will focus on those fundamentals which continue to fuel the surge in prices: tight supply and stable demand, China’s strategic stockpiling, and the recent weakening of the U.S. dollar.

The following excerpt is taken from our monthly Agriculture Outlook Report, issued to subscribers on the last Friday of every month.

The trade behavior in the grain markets turned decidedly bullish in May, as the grains have shown impressive strength driven by underlying fundamental support. As of this writing, corn has logged an 8% gain, soybeans are higher by 11%, and wheat has returned an impressive 22% in May. For this month’s commentary we will focus on those fundamentals which continue to fuel the surge in prices: tight supply and stable demand, China’s strategic stockpiling, and the recent weakening of the U.S. dollar.

Supply Concerns

The issues of weather-related planting delays, the potential for shallow rooting, and reduced fertilizer applications have all introduced a risk premium into the futures since late March. While these concerns are legitimate they are also likely overblown to a degree.

First concerning the planting delays, we note that while major producing states in the eastern grain belt have borne the brunt of problematic rainfall, this potential setback has been mitigated by “ahead-of-schedule” success in the western grain belt. Planting progress has lagged considerably in Indiana and Illinois, which collectively represent 25% of national corn production. Yet Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska have shown tremendous planting success and collectively account for nearly 40% of national corn production.

While the state-level examination demonstrates that the planting success in the west may mitigate the perilous field conditions in the east, the national view remains behind schedule and thus supportive of the uptrend in prices:

National Corn Planting Progress

We have noted in our reports since January that the economics for growing corn versus soybeans this year have persistently favored soybeans as we approached the planting season. Indeed private estimates for nutrient applications are now running 20% lower year-over-year, and demand is particularly soft for phosphates and potash. The prevailing conventional wisdom dictates that grain yields will suffer significantly as a result of lower fertilizer applications. While this may be true for successive growing seasons, our discussions with growers suggest that in any given year the grower can effectively “mine the soil” with only a marginal impact on yield.

Our examination of annual plant nutrient consumption and U.S. corn yield data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service demonstrate that total nutrient tons per corn acre have actually remained relatively flat since 1979/1980, while yields have increased steadily at a 1.1% compound annual growth rate:

Source: NASS

The data also show that the expected amount of fertilizer/acre consumed in any given year has deviated 9% from the mean during this period. This leads us to two conclusions:

1. The rising trend in corn productivity is partially attributable to the cumulative fertilization and buildup of soil nutrient levels over time, rather than simply the nominal volume applied in any given year.

2. While growers may be able to realize a productive harvest by mining the soil this year, they will certainly need to replenish nutrient levels for the 2010 summer growing season. The upward trend for grain prices, the substantial production cuts announced by North American fertilizer manufacturers in recent months, and low natural gas prices all bode well for a rebound in fertilizer demand and manufacturing margins this fall.

South American supply woes continue to benefit the U.S. soybeans trade. Again this month the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange cut its estimate of Argentina’s soybean production to 32.2 million metric tons (MMT). Given that the Argentinean harvest is roughly 90% complete, it is quite possible that current estimates may be revised down even further as the final numbers are reported. These reductions are likely already priced into the futures, but they are nonetheless supportive to supply-side fundamentals for old-crop soybean demand.

The bullish supply conditions for old-crop soybeans are most evident in the USDA’s May estimate for 2008/09 ending stocks, which were reported this month at 130 million bushels. This puts the stocks-to-use ratio (STUR), our favorite metric of supply-demand balance, at a very tight 4.3%. Consider then that the estimate for export sales this year totals 1.24 billion bushels, yet as of May 21st the US has already exported 1.235 billion bushels and we still have three months left in the current marketing year. When we factor in the lack of competing supply from South America, stable domestic demand and China’s commitment to strategic stockpiling (discussed below), we must consider that the soybeans export estimate is actually too conservative, and perhaps by a considerable margin.

To put the current tightness of supply in perspective, the last time that soybeans ending stocks came in this low was at 100 million bushels in August and September 1988, when the stocks-to-use ratio was higher at 6.0% than its current 4.3%. The lowest ratio of excess supply came in at 2.5% back in June 1977. We are undeniably at historic lows for domestic supply and quickly approaching critical levels.

The bottom line for soybeans: we believe this confluence of low domestic supplies and impressive export demand can drive the stocks-to-use ratio under 3%, or less than 12 days of excess supply. As the stocks-to-use ratio continues to trend lower, prices will continue to trend higher.

Source: USDA

Steady Demand

The weekly export sales figures this month have served to quell fears of weakening international demand for corn and wheat, while the aforementioned soybean demand remains healthy.

Corn exports remain 31% behind last year’s pace, but are settling around 1 million metric tons (MMT) as we work through remaining old-crop stocks. We expect China to increase demand for corn imports as we move into the summer.

Wheat exports also remain weak but have shown hints of stabilization. While export commitments are running 21% behind last year’s pace, the weakening dollar will make U.S. wheat much more competitive in the coming weeks. Demand for U.S. wheat certainly needs the assistance, as it still faces ample stocks to cover current consumption levels (see the STUR chart on the previous page).

The appetite for U.S. soybeans remains strong in the export market, and commitments are running an impressive 14% ahead of last year’s pace. Recent sales have been split fairly evenly between old crop and new crop supplies, which reflects the ever-tightening U.S. capacity noted earlier. Domestic crush margins around $0.75 per bushel suggest that U.S. demand will remain firm as we enter the summer. Meanwhile, the strong demand from the export market leads us to our next major fundamental focus this month – China.

China

China’s demand has been a key driver of U.S. soybeans prices this year; first quarter imports alone were up an incredible 31% from the same period in 2008. Through the government’s grain reserve agency, Sinograin, the Chinese have implemented a strategic stockpiling campaign, whereby the government has been purchasing domestic soybeans since December 2008 at prices above prevailing market rates in an effort to support farmers’ income. Sinograin has since committed to purchasing 40 million tonnes of corn and 7.25 million tonnes of soybeans for strategic reserves.

To put these volumes in perspective, those 40 million tonnes of corn represent roughly 25% of China’s total annual production. While recent reports suggest that current storage is reaching full capacity, the government has now announced that it plans to construct additional storage facilities this year with capacity of another 15 million tonnes of grain.

The government’s stockpiling program has created the current market dynamic where local Chinese prices are being maintained at higher levels than international prices. This condition has played a major role in the higher soybeans imports noted earlier, and a similar dynamic is developing for China’s domestic corn and wheat markets. This month China publicly confirmed that their purchasing campaign will indeed now spread to corn and wheat this year. The National Development and Reform Commission has just announced that the 2009 wheat purchase program will begin by the end of May, and will serve the same purpose to support local prices should they fall below pre-defined thresholds.

As remarkable as these purchase volumes have been, the government’s announcement of further storage construction erases any doubt that China’s grain demand will continue in the near term. For the longer term outlook however, we must remain cognizant that many factors which have supported higher soybeans prices have been “one-time” in nature and may abate next year. The Argentinean farmers’ strike, historic droughts in both Argentina and Brazil, and the strength of the Brazilian Real in late 2008/early 2009 were all major factors this year that may not be part of the equation for the 2009/2010 marketing season.

The U.S. Dollar Weakens, China Diversifies, Institutional Investment Reappears

The discussion of China’s purchasing behavior this year leads us to another crucial factor influencing grain price trends, namely the dollar’s recent fall in relative value. The dollar is now off 9.6% from its highs, which (not surprisingly) coincided with the interim lows established in the broader equity markets in early March. During that same period an equal-weighted basket of corn, soybeans and wheat has catapulted nearly 29%. There are several fundamentals to consider here beyond the natural inverse correlation between the dollar and dollar-denominated commodities.

As noted above, China has clearly emerged as the marginal buyer in the international grain markets (much as it has for most major commodity classes). Chinese officials have also voiced their concerns over the longer-term impact of current U.S. monetary and fiscal policies, as the value of their massive U.S. debt holdings will be depressed by the specter of inflationary programs and the inevitable higher interest rates to follow at the long end of the Treasury curve. Through their stockpiling of physical assets, the Chinese are accomplishing two strategic goals: 1. stability of natural resource availability to support the largest national population in the world, and 2. diversification of their existing asset base. This behavior is analogous to an institutional investment manager who seeks to improve risk-adjusted returns by allocating a portion of the portfolio to commodities. China is clearly making a move to diversify away from a concentrated position that is levered to a strong U.S. dollar, and balancing their asset base by increasing exposure to physical assets that benefit from a weaker dollar.

Source: Bloomberg

Institutional traders have also responded to the dollar’s move, as evidenced in the CFTC’s weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report. Since the dollar’s highs in March the large speculators have dramatically increased their net long positions in corn and soybeans, while also reversing their net short position to a net long in wheat contracts:

Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders Report

While corn and soybeans have enjoyed strong fundamental support from a supply/demand perspective, we noted last month that wheat entered May facing abundant global supplies. The strong dollar had depressed export demand, as the more expensive U.S. wheat offers were frequently snubbed in favor cheaper Russian supplies through the early months of 2009. Although global stocks remain ample to meet current demand, the weaker dollar has certainly made wheat more competitive in the export market as we enter the summer.

The large speculators have indeed turned convincingly bullish, yet we are still quite far from the speculative heights we witnessed during last summer. At current levels the large speculators’ net long positions in corn and soybeans contracts are still only 45% and 77% of their previous maximums respectively. Institutional money flow can still be a powerful force to drive prices higher as we enter the summer.

Bottom Line Near-Term Price Outlook:

We expect the grains to maintain their bullish momentum on Chinese stockpiling, tightening U.S. stocks-to-use ratios, and potential yield reductions due to poor planting weather and reduced fertilizer applications. The most apparent risks to the current price trend include a rebound in the U.S. dollar, another downturn in the broader equity market which would renew risk aversion, or a surprise increase in planted acres in the USDA’s June acreage report.

Grain Prices: Looking into the Crystal Ball

Jordan Rizzuto — Tue, 19 May 2009 04:40:00 +0000

The stocks-to-use ratio can often provide an edge for agriculture market participants.

Market participants constantly search for leading indicators to assess longer-term price direction. The stocks-to-use ratio (STUR) can often provide that edge for the agriculture markets. The ratio is calculated as Ending Stocks / Total Consumption for the current marketing year.

Layman’s terms: the STUR tells us how much grain is left over at the end of the year (i.e. excess supply) after all consumption (i.e. demand), as a percentage of total demand. Thus the STUR gives us an excellent gauge for assessing just how tight current supplies are relative to demand.

The key here is to monitor the direction and rate of change in the ratio. Knowing the nominal value alone, while helpful, simply gives us a static view of the current supply-demand balance. Here are the recent marketing year trends for the DBA agriculture ETF constituents, namely corn, soybeans, wheat and sugar:

Source: USDA

Economics 101 teaches us that prices should be inversely correlated to various measures of supply and demand. Does the relationship hold over time when we employ the STUR? Indeed it does. Here is an illustration of the year-over-year change in the STUR versus the year-over-year change in the average futures price (rolling front month) for U.S. corn:

Sources: USDA, Bloomberg

The relationship between the annual change in the STUR and the annual change in average price demonstrates an inverse correlation of -65.8% since the 1960/1961 marketing year.

The stocks-to-use ratio is a powerful tool for assessing longer-term grain market direction. Position traders will be well-served to follow this ratio closely as they judge the probability of price trend support over time.

Nebraska Corn Planting Continues to Make Excellent Progress

Daniel Greenstein — Tue, 12 May 2009 10:45:00 +0000

The USDA Crop Progress report released Monday afternoon continued to show excellent progress being made in Nebraska corn planting. The state, which is the third largest corn producer in the nation, is reported to have 78% of the crop planted, 8% above the 5-year average, and a week ahead of last week.

The tremendous progress made in planting since beginning a month ago is mainly attributed to dry conditions that have dominated eastern Nebraska. The far southeastern portion of the state has seen near-normal rainfall with 40-80% of normal elsewhere in the growing regions.

Nebraska Corn Area Boxed

In particular, the past week featured less than a half inch of rain across the corn fields with temperatures near normal. This allowed Nebraska corn planting to jump from 52% to 78% complete. This week, Tuesday afternoon through a portion of Wednesday will feature a few scattered showers and thunderstorms producing anywhere from 0.1” to 0.5” of rain on average. On Friday, some moisture will try to work back into the region, but any significant rain may just clip far southeastern Nebraska. Most of the planting-delaying rains will impact areas to the east as shown on the StormX Planting Implication map. Therefore, it is likely that Nebraska corn planting will continue to make good progress during the majority of this week and upcoming weekend.

Grain Prices: Back to the Futures

Jordan Rizzuto — Mon, 11 May 2009 11:07:00 +0000

We often look to the CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report to give us a better sense how the underlying futures speculation supports or casts doubt on the near term price outlook.

We noted in our May 1^st Monthly Outlook summary points that the fundamentals promise bullish support for corn and soybeans prices in the near term, while less so for wheat prices. We often look to the CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report to give us a better sense how the underlying futures speculation supports or casts doubt on the near term price outlook.

Keep in mind that the COT report is a rear-view look at the previous week’s trading. Even so, we can use this information to validate our assumptions of how the large speculators’ recent trading activity is supportive or restrictive of the current price move.

Performance of Underlying Futures
(CFTC weekly reporting period ending May 5^th)

Corn: prices for the reporting period rose 6% with flat open interest, while the large speculators’ net long position exploded by nearly 90% over the previous week. This dynamic tells us that the large speculators are increasingly bullish, yet the market overall is failing to attract new institutional buyers. This will likely change as the dollar weakens further.

Soybeans: prices for the reporting period rose 13% and continued to see steady gains in both open interest and the net long position for the large specs. This dynamic of the open interest and the net longs rising in tandem demonstrates continued support for soybeans’ bullish leadership of the grains complex.

Wheat: prices for the reporting period rose 6%. Open interest was down more than 5% over the previous week while the large specs’ net short position decreased by a whopping 78%. This feels more like short covering and spillover optimism from soybeans and the outside markets, rather than a sustainable bullish move for wheat. We have noted recently that wheat has the most difficult fundamentals to overcome in the grain complex. Production shortfalls due to drought and planting delays would need to be near historic levels to substantially impact the supply-demand equilibrium in the near term.

This week the trade turns its immediate attention to the May 12^th supply-demand report, where the USDA will give the market its first official estimate of ending stocks for the current marketing year.

North Dakota Spring Wheat Production May Be Worse Than USDA Reckons

Gail Martell — Tue, 2 Jun 2009 03:51:00 +0000

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS: Good Night Report for Tuesday, June 2

The most productive wheat districts in North Dakota are extremely wet and may suffer a sharp loss in production as a result of a reduced planted area and yield. The USDA reported North Dakota spring wheat seeding advanced to 82% complete May 31st , up 13% from the week before, but the largest wheat district in the Northeast was only 52% seeded. Other key producing areas in the Red River Valley were close to finishing, but planting lagged 2-3 weeks behind schedule in April and May, arguing for a reduced yield.

Severe planting delays in Northeast North Dakota is a big deal, since this is the highest yielding district in the state recording a 51.5 bushel per acre yield in 2008 and accounting for 30% of North Dakota hard red spring wheat production. All 3 Red River Valley crop districts in eastern North Dakota were still wet on USDA’s May 31st topsoil moisture map.

Whenever growth and development are retarded by late planting and soggy fields, wheat harvesting is delayed into late August or September, when drying conditions deteriorate with cool, damp weather. As a rule, delayed harvests lead to quality deterioration from a higher incidence of mold, kernel bleaching, sprouting and immature green kernels.

Below is a look at the crop acreage harvested and final yields in eastern North Dakota, where half the state’s crop is produced. Extremely wet spring planting conditions are marked off with asterisks. We see that severe planting delays from wetness not only reduces crop acreage below expectations, but also cuts the yield.

Flooding historically significant

To qualify for "spring flooding" very heavy precipitation had to have occurred in a 6-month period from October through March – a combination of heavy fall rains and excessive winter snow melt. Whenever this happens, frozen fields are unable to absorb all the spring snow water, and soil profiles fill up. The spring flooding years shown on the area and yield charts represent the 5% of wettest years on record.

This year the October-March precipitation was the highest on record in Northeast North Dakota, where 30% of the state's spring wheat crop is grown. East-Central and Southeast North Dakota recorded the 4th and 6th heaviest rain and snow totals on record.

North Dakota’s spring wheat planting campaign normally begins as soon as fields thaw in late April and finishes up by May 20th. Growers are reluctant to plant much after May 20th, due to a heightened risk of spoilage and yield reductions when maturity is delayed. Not only is the size of the harvest reduced, but also downgrades in crop quality reduce profitability.

Is USDA low enough?

The USDA pegged 2009 hard red spring and durum production down 17% lower from last season on the May Supply-Demand report, taking into account severe planting delays and reduced yields. However, the 2008 harvest was better than average, so a 17% reduction from a high value may be too modest. In addition, the production losses in the 3 flooding years cited were 20-25% beneath long term averages. We have not even mentioned planting problems in Minnesota, the second leading spring wheat state, where planting conditions have been similarly wet and slow.

You may find US spring wheat planting progress and individual state progress on the Storm X website.

StormX Answers AgWeb Questions

Daniel Greenstein — Wed, 13 May 2009 11:18:00 +0000

North Dakota Planting Concerns and Montana Wheat Ratings

StormX was recently asked a few questions over on our AgWeb Community Blog. Usually when there is one question, there are many more. So, we thought we would publish the questions and our answers here.

Question: What is the latest date the North Dakota farmers would likely plant wheat? It looks like they could (theoretically) get it all in the ground in a short amount of time (4-5 weeks) if they could get in the fields. I see 20%+ progress per week at times during normal years (obviously that would imply perfect conditions), which we don't have, but I'm wondering when they can it to get an idea of how much isn't going to go in the ground.

Answer: Typically, most of the spring wheat in North Dakota is in the ground by the first week of June. Looking back to 1995, when the state had a very wet fall and snowy winter followed by flooding from snowmelt, 80% of the crop was planted by June 4th. That year, the yield was below average at just 27 bushels per acre. While spring wheat can be planted into June, this late planting can lead to quality deterioration come harvest time. As a note, the years of 1996 and 1997 saw planting get off to an extremely slow start in early May, but nearly all the wheat was sown by the first week of June. This may have been the case as April of 1996 turned dry as well as February and March in 1997 in between very wet periods. Below is the latest StormX USDA Crop Progress chart for North Dakota spring wheat planting:

Question: You've written a lot about North Dakota but Montana is also a large wheat producer with some weather troubles. With the recent blizzard and rains in the state are we going to see a decline in spring wheat acres? Also, how will these storms affect the winter wheat crop?

Answer: Montana has a great winter wheat crop coming with a the latest crop rating of 68% good to excellent and only 5% poor to very poor, so it appears the recent stretch of wintry weather has not seriously impacted the crop. Furthermore, with the winter wheat crop appearing to be in good shape, it is doubtful Montana farmers will struggle to get all the spring wheat planted.

As a note, the 5-year average wheat production in Montana is 84.3 million bushels (winter wheat) and 69.7 million bushels (spring wheat).

Record-Breaking Winter Precipitation Impeding North Dakota Spring Wheat Planting

Jeremy Ross, PhD — Tue, 5 May 2009 04:00:00 +0000

Recent cooling in the North Pacific Ocean has significantly impacted climate in the Northern Plains. From January through March of 2009, North Dakota experienced its 4th snowiest/wettest period on record and the most precipitation during the first three months of the year since 1916. The combination of melting snow and rainfall produced significant flooding in early April, and field conditions have remained too wet for planting. The latest planting progress report shows spring wheat limping ahead with only 3% planted, compared with the average of 51% by this date during the past five years.

Record-breaking precipitation occurred in many portions of North Dakota between January and March. Two of the nine climate divisions recorded their wettest January to March period since 1895, four other divisions were in the 90th percentile of wettest years, and the remaining three divisions in the 70th percentile of wettest years.

Generally drier conditions will prevail in North Dakota for the remainder of this week, with only periodic light showers expected through the weekend. Depending on the trafficability of the fields, this should allow for more significant gains in planting this week. Another storm is expected to impact the western U.S. early next week, and that may bring another unwelcomed round of significant precipitation.

To better quantify the magnitude of this year’s North Dakota spring wheat planting delay, the StormX science team examined the planting progress in all previous years since 1986. 2009 is the second worse start to the planting season, trailing only 1995 when 2% were planted by week 18. Two other years were comparable to this year, 1996 and 1997 when 8% and 3% of the crop was planted by this time. None of those years ever caught up with the average planting progress in May. The StormX team will continue to closely monitor and report on the planting progress in North Dakota as May unfolds.

North Dakota Spring Wheat Planting Prospects Dim on Damp Forecast

Daniel Greenstein — Fri, 1 May 2009 07:50:00 +0000

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS: Wake-Up Weather for Friday, May 1st

Drier weather has moved into North Dakota Friday after up to an inch of rain has fallen in the state this week. Over the weekend, temperatures should warm into the 60’s with the warmer temperatures lasting into early next week. Extremely wet fields from two month of flooding along with above normal rainfall since the end of last year has seriously delayed spring wheat planting.

As of Monday, virtually none of crop was planted compared to the 5-year average of nearly 30%.

The USDA predicted that spring fieldwork would finally begin today, but that may not be the case. The extension agent in Cass County, home to Fargo, does not believe planting can begin for at least another week throughout the Red River Valley where flooding was at its worst. Studies have found that for each day after May 15th that wheat is planted, yields decline 1.5%.

While temperatures may be in the 60’s statewide for much of next week, damp conditions are likely to return by Tuesday with on and off showers through at least the end of the week. This is likely to cause more planting delays across the state, as the lack of sunshine will prevent serious drying from occurring on the farmland.

Wetness May Lead to Reduced Russian Spring Wheat Production

Daniel Greenstein — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 01:34:00 +0000

Poor weather conditions across western and central Russia have led to significant spring grain planting delays with wheat being chief among them. Spring wheat is mainly sown in Siberia, the Urals, and the Volga Valley, located just to the north of Kazakhstan.

Courtesy of the USDA

Since the start of April, 1-3” of rain has fallen, with the heaviest amounts falling over the Urals and Volga Valley, where rainfall has been over 200% of normal. Accompanying the rain has been temperatures 2-5ºF below normal. This combination of cool and wet conditions has produced soggy fields, which has delayed the planting of spring wheat.

With spring wheat fields in Russia located at a similar latitude to that of North Dakota, parallels can be drawn to the planting perils in both locations. Extremely wet fields in North Dakota from recent heavy rain and flooding have prevented any meaningful wheat planting from taking place. In fact, the latest USDA crop report pegs planting progress there at 0%, compared to the 5-year average of 11%. Likewise, the Russian Agriculture Ministry said on Wednesday that as of April 22nd, only 3.1 million hectares of spring grains have been planted, accounting for less than 10% of the expected planting area of 31.1 million hectares. On April 21st of last year, nearly 6 million hectares of spring grains were planted. Furthermore, the ministry expects the spring harvest this year to yield just 85-90 million metric tons versus 105.5 million in 2008.

Through the end April, there will be multiple chances for both rain and snow across spring wheat areas. While no major storm systems appear to be on tap for the immediate future, total precipitation amounts could approach the one inch mark, keeping fields rather soggy, which would further delay planting.

Latest On Russian/Egyptian Wheat Dispute

Dave Norris — Tue, 26 May 2009 01:47:00 +0000

HIGHLIGHTS FROM NOGGER'S BLOG

The dispute between Russia and Egypt over wheat quality "was a misunderstanding, but it was not a misunderstanding on our part. It was a misunderstanding on the Egyptian part," First Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov is quoted as telling Reuters.

Unconfirmed reports today appear to suggest that the dispute has been resolved over the weekend. Presumably by the arrival of a large quantity of cash for somebody.

The dispute threated a very important market for Russia, who have supplied around 3.7 MMT of the 5 MMT of wheat that Egypt had imported up to the end of March in the 2008/09 marketing year.

View full report: Latest On Russian/Egyptian Wheat Dispute

Drought Slowing Wheat Planting in Southeastern Australia

Daniel Greenstein — Tue, 26 May 2009 10:50:00 +0000

The Australian provinces of New South Wales and Victoria make up 36% of the nation’s wheat production.

Planting, which began around the start of May, has slowed dramatically due to worsening drought conditions in the region. Over the past 30 days, major wheat regions in these two provinces have seen just a tenth to a half inch of rain, less than 20% of the normal amount.

In the past two weeks, even drier conditions have prevailed, with some wheat fields recording no measurable rainfall. Last Friday, Australian news agency, ABC Rural, reported that sowing has completely stopped across many parts of southern New South Wales. Some very light showers have moved across southeastern Australia since Monday, but rainfall has generally been less than a tenth of an inch. As of late Tuesday morning (EDT), the showers are tapering off and should give way to more dry conditions. Rain-free conditions should continue through the end of May. Therefore, farmers may begin to switch from wheat to barley, which can be planted later and not suffer as severe of yield reductions due to drought. By the start of June, a storm system may bring beneficial rains to the region, but uncertainty is rather high at this time.

More Grain Production Estimates Cut In Eastern Europe

Dave Norris — Fri, 22 May 2009 11:08:00 +0000

HIGHLIGHTS FROM NOGGER'S BLOG

Following with this mornings theme of having a look at what seem like diminishing crops prospects in Eastern Europe, here's a few more snippets for you:

Hungary has not had any significant rainfall since March, the state-run agricultural think-tank now says that the wheat crop there could fall to 4 MMT, down 28.5% from last season's 5.6 MMT.

Czech grain production has also been hit by drought. The Agrarian Chamber sees total grain production this season down at least 17% and "probably more", without putting a tonnage on projected wheat output specifically. A 17% fall in wheat production would give us a crop of 3.9 MMT from 4.7 MMT last year.

Bulgaria's National Grain Producers Union sees below average yields this year, with wheat production likely to fall around 20% to circa 3.5 MMT. Plantings were sharply lower after the EU Commission used satellite monitoring to reveal that land that some Bulgarian farmers were claiming set-aside for what turned out to include sports stadiums, rubbish dumps and even graveyards! That put the blocks on huge tranches of farm aid destined for Bulgaria just when crops were due to be planted last autumn.

View full report: More Grain Production Estimates Cut In Eastern Europe

North Dakota Wheat Planting Will Advance On Warm, Dry Weather

Gail Martell — Mon, 18 May 2009 09:48:08 +0000

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS: Wake-Up Weather for Monday May 16

The nation’s second largest wheat state North Dakota is finally getting a break with strong warming this week that will promote rapid drying and good planting conditions. A mere 13% of spring wheat had been sown as of May 9th tied with 1995 for the slowest planting campaign on record.

Cold weather has been a big problem this spring averaging 3-4 F below normal, keeping evaporation low and preventing soggy fields from drying up. A hard freeze occurred Saturday morning with reported lows in the 21-25 F range in north-central and northwest North Dakota.

Expected highs this week are predicted in the 60s F and 70s F while night lows climb up into the 40s F and 50s F. These temperatures would “seasonally warm” and much better for drying. In addition, showers are expected to be absent this week except in the southeast corner of the state.

Despite improved planting conditions, the North Dakota spring wheat and durum planting area is expected to shrink sharply, because of the lateness of the calendar date and the minimal planting progress to date. Growers are reluctant to plant in late May, because wheat harvesting gets delayed into September, when cool and damp weather is apt to reduce crop quality.

The USDA pegged the spring wheat plus durum production 17% lower than last season on the May Supply-Demand report, a reduction that reflects an expected reduction in the planted acres.

Heat wave predicted this week in hard red winter wheat

Hard red winter wheat on the High Plains will be experiencing highs in the upper 80s F and low 90s F this week, ending a stretch of favorable coolness. Where soil moisture is short in Texas, wheat will decline. Kansas has good-excellent field moisture for wheat development and should ride out the heat wave in good shape.

Kansas growers hope that a hot, dry weather pattern will not last since the state’s crop is beginning to head out and fill kernels, and coolness promotes the best conditions. The Kansas wheat rating has steadily improved over the past 5-6 weeks on increasing rainfall, and was more than 50% good-excellent and only 12% poor on May 9th.

A few showers may affect Nebraska, Colorado and Northwest Kansas when scattered thunderstorms develop later in the week.

Wheat Prospects Improving in Washington

Gail Martell — Thu, 7 May 2009 05:36:00 +0000

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS: Good Night Report Thursday May 7

Washington is the 3rd leading US winter wheat producer growing 120 million bushels and 7-8% of the national crop. The wheat that is produced is soft white, a variety that is used in pastries, crackers, cakes and snack foods.

Wheat potential this season is better than 2008, when production fell to 96 million bushels. The fall planting season was unfavorably dry, but a stormy winter in the Pacific Northwest boosted field moisture for spring growth. Wheat potential has been on the rise in a cool and rainy spring, In fact, crop production this season may rebound to 120 million bushels.

The vegetation index compared to last year is much greener in Southeast Washington, where most of the state’s wheat is grown.

Crop ratings have steadily improved in a cool and rainy spring reaching 57% good-excellent, 26% fair and 17% poor-very poor on May 2. This is not a spectacular crop but way better than last year and close to average.

Cotton on the High Plains of Texas Needs Rain

Daniel Greenstein — Thu, 28 May 2009 01:29:00 +0000

A rather dry May across parts of Texas is causing much concern amongst the state’s cotton producers. The state accounts for 27% of the nation’s yearly upland cotton production with the major areas located in the Southern High Plains, the Coastal Bend, and the Lower Rio Grande Valley.

Since the start of May, less than an inch of rain has fallen in the High Plains and Lower Valley.

While the rainfall for this period is below normal, it is a step up from what has occurred in the prior three months. In the Lower Valley, less than 20% of normal precipitation has fallen in the February-April period. In Texas’ High Plains, the period has been a bit wetter, but still well below normal.

As of Tuesday’s USDA Crop Progress report, Texas cotton planting was 54%, just 2% behind the 5-year average.

However, farmers have reported planting issues in the Southern High Plains, which is expected to account for 3.5 million of the state’s 4.72 million acres of cotton (the 4.72 million acres marks the lowest expected planted cotton acres since 1983). Spotty rainfall throughout May has forced some growers to delay planting efforts. If planting there is put off until next month, farmers may not be able to file a crop insurance claim for cotton that does not germinate or grow. The deadline for the Southern High Plains falls during the period from June 5th to June 10th.

In far southern Texas, farmers plant cotton earlier in the year. Therefore, extreme dryness there over the past several months has made the crop there almost a total loss.

For the High Plains, where rainfall is still needed, the forecast is bleak. Over the next seven days, little, if any, rain is expected with temperatures slightly above normal into the low 90’s (ºF). Unfortunately, signs point to continuing dryness and even hotter temperatures for the region into the second week of June.

StormX Crop Health Yield/Production Forecast Model

Jan Dutton — Wed, 27 May 2009 02:40:00 +0000

Description

The Storm Exchange crop health forecast models for yield and production are based on a historical analysis of crop response to several variables that are affected by weather and climate conditions. These parameters include but are not limited to: soil moisture, soil nutrient levels, evapotranspiration, and crop condition reports contained in the weekly crop progress bulletin issued by the USDA.

The prediction models are constructed using the history of available data starting in 1986. Separate models are developed for each crop and for each month for which data is available. The StormX models are created for yield and production on the national, state, and county level for corn, soybeans, and winter wheat.

Yield Models
All input data is compiled to provide weekly resolution for end-of-season yield forecasts.
Careful consideration is given to the estimation of the technology trend for each grain, as it has important implications for forecasting yields. Yield is considered to be the combination of a yield trend plus the weather-induced deviations around the trend.

Similarly, the best-fit linear trend of the yield (production/harvested acres) is calculated by:

For each year, the deviation of the monthly-averaged yield value from the trendline value for the same year is then computed. This calculation produces a vector of 23 crop health "anomaly" values from 1986 to 2008. Finally, a cross-validated linear regression is performed between the yield anomaly values and the input values, producing results that are used to predict end-of-season yields:

This approach is applied to produce the national, state and county-level models separately.

Production Models
The prediction of crop production is complicated by the fact that production is heavily influenced by harvested acreage, which must be considered separately from other yield-influencing factors and cannot be known until the harvest is complete. This problem was addressed by developing models for "planting yield" (production per planted acre), as opposed to the normal "harvesting yield" (production per harvested acre), and then multiplying the predicted "planting yield" by the projected acreage. The advantage of this approach is that the prediction is divided into two components: data is used to predict the "planting yield", while the influence of planted acreage is considered independently.

Cross-Validation
Each of the yield and production models is cross-validated by repeating the model development for each year between 1986 and 2008, each time withholding the year in question. By excluding each year in turn, an estimate is made for the overall performance of the model using independent data. During the cross-validation exercise, the trends are calculated excluding the present year’s data.

Cross-validation reduces the risk that “out of sample” forecast errors produce potentially unrealistic forecasts. This can occur when a regression model is created without leaving any data to test the models. Cross-validation solves this problem by leaving out one year in each instance of the model. Cross-validation also provides an opportunity for advanced information products to be created. The model coefficients that are developed from the cross-validation methodology can be use to create a probabilistic outlook that provides uncertainty information associated with the forecast.

StormX Weather-Based Yield/Production Forecast Model

Jan Dutton — Wed, 27 May 2009 02:33:00 +0000

A description of the Weather Based Yield Forecast Model

The Storm Exchange weather-based crop forecast models for yield and production have been developed using a historical analysis of crop response to various observed and derived weather variables. These variables include monthly values of temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and modified growing degree days.

The prediction models are constructed using statistical regressions between the history of the crops’ yield and production and the history of high-resolution gridded weather data starting in 1979. Separate models are developed for each crop and for each county for which data is available. The modeling system has been configured to create daily updated yield and production forecasts, based on the continuous update of weather information during the growing season. As the growing season progresses and more data are ingested into the models, the accuracy of the models improves. The StormX weather–based crop forecast models have been developed for yield and production at the county level for corn, soybeans, and winter wheat.

Yield Models
All input data is compiled to provide daily resolution forecasts of end-of-season yield forecasts beginning early in the growing season.
Careful consideration is given to the estimation of the technology trend for each grain, as it has important implications for forecasting yields. Yield is considered to be the combination of a yield trend plus the weather-induced deviations around the trend.

Similarly, the best-fit linear trend of the yield (production/harvested acres) is calculated by:

For each year, the deviation of the yield value from the trendline value for the same year is then computed. This calculation produces a vector of 30 crop "anomaly" values from 1979 to 2008. Finally, a cross-validated multivariate linear regression is performed between the yield anomaly values and the N input weather anomalies (Wx), producing the predictive regression model for end-of-season yields:

Combining the yield forecast anomaly with the technology trend produces the full yield forecast.

This approach is applied to the county level, where the localized influences of weather are most pronounced and the largest yield variations found.

Cross-Validation
Each of the yield and production models is cross-validated by repeating the model development for each year between 1979 and 2008, each time withholding the year in question. By excluding each year in turn, an estimate is made for the overall performance of the model using independent data. During the cross-validation exercise, the trends are calculated excluding the present year’s data.

European Seasonal Forecast - Summer

Richard James, PhD — Fri, 22 May 2009 02:13:00 +0000

Warm and dry in eastern Europe, moist along northwest coast

Unusually warm and dry conditions are expected across a broad area of eastern Europe extending from Poland to western Russia and the Caspian Sea, according to the Storm Exchange summer outlook for the months of June, July and August.

Storm Exchange scientists combine the latest forecasts from several computer models with proprietary statistical analysis of global climate patterns to prepare the seasonal outlooks.

Persistent and extensive warmth in eastern Europe is predicted by the computer forecast model of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). This signal is similar to the model’s forecast from last month, lending credibility to the solution. In western parts of Europe, however, there are no computer forecast indications of unusual summertime warmth. Moreover, the Atlantic sea surface temperatures near the coast of western Europe are significantly lower than at the same time last year; this influence will reduce the likelihood of prolonged heat waves in the western regions.

A shortfall of precipitation is anticipated in far eastern Europe and western Russia, but unusually moist conditions are expected from northern Britain to northern Norway in association with an active northern storm track. Continued cool and relatively moist conditions are expected in northwest Africa.

U.S. Seasonal Forecast - Summer

Richard James, PhD — Fri, 22 May 2009 02:04:00 +0000

Cool and moist in the central U.S., warm and dry in the interior Northwest

Unusually cool and moist conditions are likely in the U.S. Midwest in the summer months of June through August, according to a new Storm Exchange seasonal outlook. Dryness and warmth are predicted in the interior Pacific Northwest and in the northeastern U.S.

The seasonal outlook for U.S. climate conditions, which is produced monthly by Storm Exchange, represents a combination of the latest forecasts from several computer models with proprietary statistical analysis of global climate patterns as interpreted by Storm Exchange scientists and climate forecasters.

In recent months, the strongly negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has served as an important influence on North American climate. Storm Exchange expects that the North American summer climate will continue to reflect patterns consistent with a negative PDO, although the intensity of the PDO’s current negative phase is beginning to wane slightly. A negative PDO regime in summer typically leads to cool conditions in the central and southeastern U.S., and unusual warmth in the interior northwest of North America.

The computer forecast models portray summer conditions that are strongly consistent with the historical temperature pattern. In view of the unusual agreement between the independent forecasts, confidence in the 2009 summer forecast is relatively high in comparison to the usual uncertainty regarding summertime patterns.

The distribution of summer precipitation is expected to closely reflect the temperature pattern. In the Midwest, abundant showers and thunderstorms will occur, and in the interior Northwest dry conditions will accompany the unusual warmth. In the northeast U.S., warm and dry conditions are expected to prevail under the influence of persistent high pressure.

Canadian Canola Fields Finally Warm Up

Daniel Greenstein — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 08:40:00 +0000

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS: Wake-Up Weather for June 15th

After a very cool spring, with frosts reported into early June, the Canadian Prairies have finally switched to warmer weather at the end of last week. Highs since Friday have been in the 70’s and 80’s with lows in the 40’s and 50’s (ºF) across major canola regions. In fact, Saskatoon reached 89ºF on Sunday.

While temperatures have finally warmed up, drought across Alberta and Saskatchewan over the past several months remains a large concern.

However, rainfall has somewhat increased in June. In Alberta, Calgary has picked up 0.61” of rain this month, compared to 0.55” the entire month of May. In Regina, Saskatchewan, May featured 0.94” of rain, with June already at 0.93”. The drought has already forced many canola farmers to abandon their fields. Nevertheless, for those were able to get the crop in the ground, the recent increase in moisture is much-needed for the growing crop, while the warmth removes the risk of another damaging frost.

In southern Manitoba, the warmer conditions have fortunately been accompanied by drier weather, as very wet conditions have plagued that region this spring. June has already featured an inch of rain after about 2.5” in May.

Across the entire Canadian Prairies above normal temperatures should continue over the next seven days with scattered showers and thunderstorms. A steadier rain is possible over eastern sections by Friday.

Warmth Returns to North Dakota, but Showers Likely This Week

Daniel Greenstein — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 07:51:00 +0000

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS: Wake-Up Weather for Monday, June 15th

Warm temperatures finally returned to North Dakota last Friday, after a week of very cool conditions. Over the weekend, highs in the 80’s and lows in the 50’s were widespread across the state, with Fargo reaching 86ºF on Saturday.

While high temperatures will remain in the mid 70’s to low 80’s this week, showers and thunderstorms are likely on Monday and Tuesday. Later in the week, more scattered precipitation is possible. By next weekend, anywhere from 1-3” of rain is possible.

Although much of the spring wheat crop is now in the ground, the wetness had led to slow planting, and, therefore, delayed emergence. As of last Monday, just 75% of the North Dakota spring wheat has emerged, compared to 96% normally. The new USDA Crop Progress report issued at 3pm CDT Monday should show improved progress, but still behind schedule. With late emergence comes a delayed harvest, making the spring wheat crop susceptible to September frosts and disease.

Very Warm Week in Store for Corn Belt with More Thunderstorms

Daniel Greenstein — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 07:24:00 +0000

CORN HIGHLIGHTS: Wake-Up Weather for Monday, June 15th

After a wet start to the week last week, some drier air moved in by late Thursday. However, a quick moving area of low pressure brought more rain to northern and western areas of the Corn Belt from late Friday into Saturday. The observed rainfall below shows over an inch of rain in parts of Nebraska, Iowa, and extreme northern Illinois.

To start this week, another system will move across the Midwest Corn Belt from Monday into early Wednesday bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms. The heaviest rainfall should fall from eastern Iowa into Illinois.

After a brief break, more storms are possible across the Upper Midwest by Thursday into early Friday. By Friday afternoon into Saturday, a cold front looks like push across the entire region, possibly producing a line of showers and thunderstorms.

What separates this week from last week is the much warmer temperatures expected. Last week, temperatures in the very wet states of Illinois and Indiana averaged anywhere form 2ºF to as much as 8ºF below normal. This week, highs should crack the 90ºF mark by Wednesday or especially Thursday, up to 10ºF above normal. Looking further into the future, temperatures should remain in the warm 80’s through next week.

The combination of cool, rainy weather last week was not ideal for corn growth and development. Read Gail Martell’s report Not Enough Sunshine, Too Much Rain in Midwest Corn for a more detailed look at the implications of last week’s weather pattern. While moisture does help emerging corn, rain has been well above normal since spring began, keeping fields too wet. The heat this week should help in the drying process, despite more chances for thunderstorms.

Poor Spring Weather Lowers Canadian Canola Production Estimate

Daniel Greenstein — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 08:53:00 +0000

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS: Wake-Up Weather for Friday, June 12th

The Canadian Wheat Board’s annual crop outlook issued Thursday featured a significant reduction in expected canola production. Last year, 12.6 million metric tons of canola was harvested across the Canadian Prairies. This year, however, canola production is estimated to be just 10.2MMT, nearly 20% less than 2008. The yield is expected to be 29.3 bushels per acre.

For Alberta and Saskatchewan, the main culprit in the low canola production expectations is a combination of drought and below normal temperatures since March. In southern Manitoba, however, spring flooding has worked in concert with cool temperatures to negatively impact the canola crop.

Bruce Burnett of the Canadian Wheat Board states that most farmland in the Canadian Prairies has received just half of the heat needed to grow a crop this year. In fact, many canola farmers have reported that frost last week is forcing them to reseed a portion of the crop. In the drought-stricken regions, poor soil moisture is making the reseeding process very difficult leading farmers to consider abandoning their fields. In Manitoba, the flooding has also slowed the planting process. With planting extending into June, the canola crop runs the risk of a late harvest with similar frost and disease impacts to that of North Dakota spring wheat.

Showers will be possible by next week across the Canadian Prairies with above normal temperatures. This may allow some farmers a last ditch effort to seed or reseed canola. However, it is likely that most of the damage has already been done.

Warm Temperatures Finally Return to North Dakota Spring Wheat Fields

Daniel Greenstein — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 08:12:00 +0000

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS: Wake-Up Weather for Friday, June 12th

After more than a week of well-below normal temperatures, Friday is marking a shift to more June like weather across the state of North Dakota. The map below shows much of North Dakota averaging at least 14ºF cooler than normal over the past 7 days, despite moderating conditions since this past weekend’s cold spell featuring some snow.

Additionally, drier conditions have been in place since Tuesday, and should remain so through the first half of next week, outside of a few isolated showers and thunderstorms.

The change to warm, dry weather should allow for the remaining 6% of the spring wheat to be planted. However, it is likely that the final planted acres will be less than was originally intended at the start of the growing season. Furthermore, as of Monday, just 75% of North Dakota spring wheat has emerged, 21% behind the average for the second week of June.

Therefore, a significant portion of the crop may not be harvested until September, making it susceptible to frost damage and disease reducing yield.

Australia Wheat Will Be Subject To Drought If El Niño Develops

Gail Martell — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 03:55:00 +0000

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS: Good Night Report for Monday June 15

The Climate Prediction Center June 4th issued an El Niño alert indicating that “Conditions are favorable for a transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions during June − August 2009.”

El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures warm up in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, but this is only one aspect of a broad scale shift in wind, air pressure and rainfall patterns that alters the climate in the tropics and sub-tropics. A classic symptom of El Niño is drought in Australia wheat states New South Wales and Victoria.

Below is a look at Australia wheat production in years when El Niño was in effect. Production was low in 11 out of 14 cases and seemed worst in the second year of a 2-season episode (1976-77 and 1986-87). Really severe damage occurred in recent El Niño cases 2002 and 2006 when less than half a normal wheat crop was gathered.

To be classified as an El Niño wheat season in Australia, the El Niño had to be in effect from August through October, encompassing key development stages in wheat -- tillering, jointing and heading. In many cases the El Niño effect began much earlier in May and June, hampering farmer efforts to plant wheat. Thus, not only was the yield reduced, but also the wheat area planted.

At the current time, sea surface temperatures are close to the El Niño threshold in the Niño 3.4 sentinel region. Equatorial surface temperatures must be .5 C above normal or higher for several overlapping months, in order to be classified as a full blown El Niño by the Climate Prediction Center.

Storm Exchange scientist Jeremy Ross points out that what seemed to be an emerging El Niño last year late in summer never came to fruition and , in fact, the equatorial sea chilled down rapidly in the fall, turning into a winter La Niña. Ross gives El Niño a 60% chance for occurrence in the summer of 2009.

A drier weather pattern has resumed in Australia’s drought-prone southeastern wheat state New South Wales in recent weeks, suggesting that a weak El Niño influence may be in effect. The top wheat state Western Australia is especially dry on the May-June rainfall map.

US Winter Wheat Production Lower In Virtually Every State

Gail Martell — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 03:51:00 +0000

WINTER WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS: Good Night Report for Friday June 12

United States winter wheat production would shrink 376 million bushels and 20% from 2008, according to USDA’s June crop production estimates. Virtually every state is expected to produce less wheat.

The steepest production cut is predicted in soft red winter wheat, down 32% from 2008, due primarily to sharply reduced crop acreage. Soft red winter wheat is used for cakes, cookies, crackers and snack foods and is produced heavily in the Midwest and Mid South.

The major “breadbasket” states in the Great Plains will produce 16% less wheat than last season. Output is predicted sharply lower in Oklahoma and Texas, where a drought and freeze exacted a heavy toll on wheat. The top US wheat state Kansas is expecting average production similar to 2008. Likewise Nebraska's outlook is little changed from last year. Colorado is expecting a much larger harvest compared with a poor crop in 2008.

Western white wheat was estimated to be only 5% less than last year. The largest producing state Washington is expecting a 6% increase from 2008 based on USDA figures.

The percent change in production from 2008 is plotted in the major wheat states on the maps below:

Not Enough Sunshine, Too Much Rain In Midwest Corn

Gail Martell — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 02:25:00 +0000

CORN HIGHLIGHTS: Good Night Report for Friday June 12

Corn ratings are expected to drift lower on the June 12 USDA report, due to worsening wetness in the Central Midwest and insufficient sunlight in the week.

The Midwest Corn Belt experienced another wet week due to recurring showers along a horizontal front. The wettest areas where at least 2 inches of rainfall occurred were in the southern half of the Corn Belt. At least .75 inch of rainfall occurred on 85% of Midwest farms. It was too wet for corn development with prevailing cool temperatures.

It did not rain heavily every day, but clouds were commonly present, limiting corn growth and development. Four days out of 7 were cloudy in Nebraska, Illinois and Indiana, and 5 out of 7 days in Iowa and Missouri. The best growing conditions last week were in Michigan and Ohio, where sunshine was abundant on most days.

It is a good bet that corn ratings will move lower on the next USDA ratings for June 12, due out Monday. The US corn rating slipped slightly on June 6, compared with the previous week, in the "super wet" states shown on the Crop Moisture Index. Conditions have not gotten any better with additional heavy rain this week.

More rain is predicted on the weekend in the Western and Northern Corn Belt. Illinois is expecting light rain.

China Soybean Potential Is Improving in Heilongjiang

Gail Martell — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 11:58:00 +0000

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS: Good Night Report for Friday June 12

Prospects are improving on heavy June rainfall in China’s leading soybean province Heilongjiang, but a delayed start to the growing season due to May drought may still reduce yields. Ideal summer growing conditions are required to optimize growth and development after delayed planting.

Heilongjiang is vulnerable to reduced soybean yields due to unreliable spring rainfall and a propensity toward drought. Stored ground moisture at the beginning of the growing season is typically low due to a very dry fall and winter climate, so spring rainfall is especially important for getting soybeans properly established. If spring drought occurs soybean yields usually suffer from delayed seeding dates.

Harbin received 2.35 inches of rain in March and April, enough to moisten topsoil for planting, but May conditions turned abnormally hot and dry, depleting soil moisture and stressing young soybeans. The China Office of State Flood Control And Drought Relief in May issued a drought alert stating that dryness was affecting 45% of cultivated area in Heilongjiang and 20% in Jilin, the leading corn province. Very dry conditions can be seen on the May rainfall map:

An unusual heat wave in Heilongjiang contributed to rapid field drying. Harbin May temperatures were 7 F above average and may have set a record. Eight days in May were above 80 F and 4 days above 90 F, very unusual for a northern city at the same latitude as Minneapolis, Minnesota. Harbin’s normal maximum May temperature is 67 F.

Heilongjiang soybeans may have required replanting in June, where drought was especially severe. Late planting is always risky for soybeans in northern latitudes, where summers are short and heat units are limited. The fear is that soybeans would not receive enough heat to carry the crop safely to maturity, and may run out of time filling pods before growth shuts down. The worst scenario for Heilongjiang would be a cool summer.

When soybeans are planted in June the vegetative growth period is shortened. Forty five to 60 days between emergence and flowering is normal for soybeans, but when the vegetative period is shortened by late seeding, the effect on the soybean plant is often a reduction in height and yield. That being said, soybeans that are shorter than normal can still load up with pods and make a favorable yield, if rainfall is ample in late July and August, during pod setting and bean filling.

Growing conditions in Heilongjiang currently are very favorable. The heat wave is over and the summer rainy season is in full swing. Rainfall has added up to 2-4 inches in the past 2 weeks, locally more, replenishing dry fields and boosting growth. Even so immature soybeans have some catching up to do. A late May vegetation index confirmed that drought was severe, producing sub-par growth compared to the 7-year average vegetation. This is a delayed soybean crop that needs ideal growing weather to optimize the yield. Heilongjiang soybeans account for 33% of China production.

Argentina Wheat Production Prospects Continue Poor With Drought

Gail Martell — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 05:16:00 +0000

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS: Good Night Report for Thursday June 11

The USDA kept a low production estimate for Argentina wheat on the June Supply-Demand report. Drought is preventing growers from planting, driving the crop area to the lowest level in 30 years. Production may be only 11 million metric tons and 30-35% below average. If poor wheat growing weather continues with drought, it would be the second year in a row of low production and exports.

Argentina’s largest wheat province Buenos Aires has received 2.5-3.5 inches of rainfall in recent weeks, allowing planting to proceed but other wheat provinces are dry. Drought is severe in Cordoba and Santa Fe, and moderate in La Pampa.

Low production for 2 straight years would restrict exports in 2010. Last year, Argentina exported only 4.5 million metric tons of wheat compared with 10-11 million metric tons normally.

The Sun’s Influence on ENSO, Is There a Connection?

Jeremy Ross, PhD — Mon, 4 May 2009 05:21:00 +0000

Over the past couple of years the Sun has been entering a minimum in the 11-year solar cycle, a period when few sunspots are observed. While this minimum was expected, the lingering absence of observed sunspots as each month passes increases speculation that we could be entering a period of prolonged solar inactivity. Such periods have occurred in the past, and their impacts on global climate were significant, as low sunspot periods tended to cause global temperatures to decrease.

As previously discussed by StormX, the global map of temperature anomalies during periods of high and low sunspots reveals an interesting but not widely accepted observation; the tropical Pacific apparently favors La Niña during low sunspot periods and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Neutral or El Niño conditions during high sunspot periods. To further investigate this possibility, the Storm Exchange Science Center examined Niño 3.4 SST anomalies during December, January, and February of each year between 1948-2009, and grouped the anomalies into bins based on the solar cycle’s magnitude and slope (increasing or decreasing phase). Any months with Niño 3.4 SST anomalies less than -0.5°C were classified as La Niña, any months with anomalies greater than 0.5°C as El Niño, and any months with anomalies between -0.5°C and 0.5°C as ENSO Neutral. The solar cycle and its accompanying sunspot numbers were divided into 10 bins, composed of 5 equally probable bins on the upward sloping side of the cycle, and 5 equally probable bins on the downward sloping part of the cycle. For each sunspot range, the frequency of monthly La Niña, ENSO Neutral, and El Niño was then found. If this frequency distribution has any value, it presumably would indicate elevated probabilities of one of the phases of the ENSO cycle during different periods in the solar cycle.

The above chart reveals several interesting results. Beginning with the start of a new cycle (left side of the graph), the frequency or probability of El Niño increases to 67% as the sunspot number increases to between 17 and 52. A plausible explanation is that during this period of increasing sunspots there is also a period of elevated solar activity and solar flares , which may provide pulses of energy that help initialize the climate patterns necessary for driving El Niño. As the solar cycle continues upward, La Niña becomes more probable (73%) once the number of sunspots reaches 52-94. This flip to La Niña is not directly caused by the solar cycle, but rather by the dynamics of the ENSO cycle. It has been well documented that a La Niña typically follows an El Niño as the eastward propagating Kelvin waves diminish and the easterly trade winds re-strengthen and restart the upwelling of cool subsurface water in the east Pacific.

Near the peak of the solar cycle, the probabilities of the ENSO phases are more equally distributed, with ENSO neutral becoming the preferred phase (probability near 50%). However, as solar activity diminishes and the elongated tail of the downward side of the cycle is encountered, the probability of La Niña again increases substantially (52-64%). Prolonged periods of solar inactivity are likely to decrease the amount of total insolation, and this could eventually drive ENSO into the cool phase. This effect was observed in 2007, 2008, and 2009 as back to back La Niña’s have occurred in the current elongated minimum portion of the solar cycle.

Obviously more rigorous research on the relationship between the sun and climate is needed. There continues to be an ongoing debate about the magnitude of the sun’s impact on climate, but evidence of the sun/climate relationship continues to mount (see references below). Quantifying the sun-climate connection should be a high priority for scientists in the coming years, especially if we encounter another prolonged period of solar activity similar to what occurred almost 200 years ago during the Dalton Minimum. StormX anticipates that in the next few years, advances in the scientific community’s understanding of the solar-climate link will improve our ability to predict ENSO, and hence climate, years in advance. The StormX Science team will continue researching the solar impacts on climate in an attempt to generate predictive value that is actionable for climate sensitive industries. We should never underestimate the Sun’s importance, as there is neither weather nor climate on Earth without energy emitted from the sun.

REFERENCES

Barnett, T.P., 1989: A solar-ocean relation: Fact or fiction. Geophys. Res. Lett., 16, 803-806.

Enfield, D.B., and L.S. Cid, 1991: Low-frequency changes in El Niño Southern Oscillation. J. Climate, 4, 1137-1146.

Kunihiko Kodera, 2005: Possible solar modulation of the ENSO cycle . Pap. Met. Geophys., 55, 21-32.

Labitzke, K., and H. van Loon, 1988: Association between the 11-year solar cycle, the QBO and the atmosphere. Part I: The troposphere and stratosphere in the northern hemisphere in winter. J. Atmos. Terr. Phys., 50, 197-206.

Labitzke, K., 2002: The global signal of the 11-year sunspot cycle in the stratosphere: Differences between solar maxima and minima. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 10, 83-90.

White, W. B., and Z. Liu, 2008: Non-linear alignment of El Niño to the 11-yr solar cycle. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L19607.

Atlantic cooling may presage Arctic ice increase

Richard James, PhD — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 05:46:00 +0000

Recent satellite observations from the Arctic indicate that spring ice melting is beginning at a lower rate than normal this year. According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, the area of ice-covered ocean has decreased only about 750,000 km² from its peak value at the end of February, compared to a normal decline of 1.1 million km² by late April. If this trend continues, the annual ice melt in 2009 may be less than in recent years, and the late summer Arctic ice extent may rebound from its well-publicized downtrend.

The possibility of renewed ice growth in the Arctic is consistent with a recent dramatic trend towards cooler sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean. As discussed by StormX recently, Atlantic surface temperatures have declined significantly from their peak values of the mid-2000s, and consequently the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season is likely to be less active than recent years. The sudden downward trend in Atlantic surface temperatures is reflected by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index, which has recently dropped to its lowest value since the mid-1990s.

A comparison of the AMO index and the Arctic sea ice extent reveals that the well-known decline in Arctic sea ice area since the 1980s occurred concurrently with a marked rising trend in Atlantic surface temperatures. However, the recent Atlantic cooling has abruptly ended the warming trend. As the Atlantic has cooled in the past few years, the Arctic ice extent has ceased to fall, and there are suggestions that the ice extent may be starting to rebound. These changes highlight the importance of natural cyclical variability in the ocean-atmosphere system, and may also portend new global trends associated with reduced solar activity.

An Introduction to the Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA)

Daniel Greenstein — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 02:31:00 +0000

The Pacific-North American pattern (PNA) has significant impact on weather across the United States. This pattern reflects height anomalies over Alaska’s Aleutian Islands, the southeastern United States, the intermountain region of North America, and near Hawaii.

In meteorology, a height refers to altitude at which a certain pressure level is found. If there is a positive height anomaly at a certain pressure level, this means the level is located at a greater altitude then is typically found. The opposite is true for a negative height anomaly.

In the positive phase of the PNA, positive height anomalies exist near Hawaii and over the intermountain west of North America, while negative anomalies are found across the southeastern United States and the Aleutians. This often leads to cooler than normal temperatures in the Midwest, the Southern Plains, and points eastward, with a particular emphasis found in the Southeast. California, the Pacific Northwest, and the northern Rockies typically see above normal temperatures in the positive phase. In the summer months, the PNA has little effect on US temperatures, with the most noticeable impacts occurring in the winter months. The image below shows the correlation between a positive PNA and temperature.

To further this relationship, eight years were examined in which a positive PNA occurred. Only one to two years out of the eight were found to feature above normal temperatures in the Southeast, while six or seven of the years were warmer than normal in the Pacific Northwest.

Precipitation is impacted by the PNA over the winter, as well. Usually, a positive PNA is associated with drier than normal conditions across the Pacific Northwest, eastern Midwest, and portions of the Southeast.

In the negative phase, the western United States generally sees cooler and wet conditions while eastern sections experience above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.

The PNA pattern has been found to show variability over seasons, years, and decades. Currently, like the North American Oscillation (NAO), predictability is limited to that of a typical weather forecast, in the range of a week or so.

An Introduction to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

Daniel Greenstein — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 11:13:00 +0000

The initials NAO stand for the North Atlantic Oscillation -- a meteorological phenomenon that takes place in the North Atlantic Ocean, as its name would imply. It can be in a positive, negative, or neutral phase during the winter months. Phases are determined by the difference in pressure between low pressure near Iceland and high pressure near the Azores, an island group nearly 1,000 miles east of Portugal. While the NAO does not get the publicity of an El Niño or La Niña, its impacts on United States weather can be just as profound.

The NAO essentially measures the difference in sea-level pressure anomalies between Iceland and the Azores. As the Icelandic low and Azores high strengthen and weaken, the NAO changes. When the pressure gradient between the two systems is high, strong westerly winds are found in the North Atlantic. On the other hand, a weak pressure gradient results in weak westerly winds. Both scenarios have significant implications for winter weather across the eastern half of the United States.

In a positive phase of the NAO, both the Icelandic low and the Azores high are stronger – the high has a higher pressure, and the low has a lower pressure. On the west side of the Azores high, warm air is advected northward from the Caribbean. When the high strengthens, the magnitude of warm air ushered northward into the eastern United States increases. Furthermore, the fast-moving westward flow across the country keeps the arctic air bottled up in northern Canada. Research has shown a high correlation between a positive NAO and above normal temperatures along the Eastern Seaboard, as shown in the image below. In fact, in winters with a positive NAO, below normal snowfall was often reported in the Washington to New York City corridor. Additionally, Midwest winters and early springs featured warmer than average temperatures more often than not when positive NAO occurred.

In a negative phase of the NAO, both the Icelandic low and Azores high are weaker. This pressure pattern creates blocking as the weak pressure gradient slows down the western flow across the eastern United States. This causes the jet stream to dig deep across the eastern United States leading to frequent intrusions of Arctic air. With this trough in place, the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast experience colder than normal winters with an increased frequency of coastal storms. This results in above normal snowfall totals for the region. For the Midwest, several instances of colder than normal winters have been recorded when the NAO was negative.

To further the notion of the NAO’s effect on US temperatures, the image below features an examination of eight negative NAO cases since 1954. It depicts the number of years out of the eight that featured above normal temperatures during the winter and early spring months (December-April). Over the most of the Midwest and the Eastern Seaboard, only one or two years were found to be warmer than normal.

Predicting changes in the NOA months or seasons out is rather difficult. It has been found to about as predictable as predicting the weather. However, several researchers have discovered longer term trends in the NAO, some linked to 65-80 year cycles in Atlantic sea surface temperatures. These types of trends help to make the NAO more predictable.

Solar Activity Lowest in Almost 100 Years, Implications for Climate Potentially Significant

Jeremy Ross, PhD — Thu, 9 Apr 2009 03:55:00 +0000

Sunspots are relatively cooler and darker areas on the sun’s surface caused by intense magnetic activity. Approximately every 11 years, the sun undergoes cyclic periods of high and low sunspot activity related to a 22-year reversal of the sun’s magnetic field. From the sunspot maxima to the sunspot minima solar radiation impacting Earth decreases by approximately 0.1%. Although this seems like an insignificant change, such decreases in solar output over an extended period of time are integrated and can have considerable impacts on Earth’s climate. Moreover, some radiative spectra such as ultraviolet and cosmic rays vary significantly more than 0.1% and can affect cloud cover and other feedbacks on the earth-climate system.

Occasionally, the sun undergoes periods lasting several decades when sunspots are less frequent or may not occur at all. The last significant period of decreased sunspot activity occurred from 1795 to 1830, known as the Dalton Minimum. During this period global temperatures decreased and after significant volcanic eruptions in 1816, temperatures plummeted across the Northern Hemisphere. 1816 became known as the “year without a summer”. A severe frost in May 1816 destroyed most of the planted crops in North America, and in June two major snowstorms impacted New England and eastern Canada. Ice remained on lakes and rivers as far south as Pennsylvania through July and August.

The Dalton Minimum had a significant impact on global climate, but was a mild event relative to the Maunder Minimum, a period lasting from 1645-1715 when sunspots were 1/1000th of normal. The Maunder Minimum is thought to be the primary cause of the Little Ice Age, a period when glaciers advanced and bitterly cold winters occurred in many regions of the Northern Hemisphere. In 1780, the New York Harbor froze allowing people to walk from Manhattan to State Island. According to research by Solanki et al., sunspot activity during recent decades has been the highest in the past 8,000 years and has likely influenced climate during the 20th century.

Sunspot activity during the past 11,000 years. (Solanki et al. Nature, Vol. 431, No. 7012, pp. 1084 - 1087, 28 October 2004)

Over the past several years, the sun has been entering another minimum in the 11-year sunspot cycle. However, the unforeseen and lingering absence of sunspots during the past year has raised concerns that another period like the Dalton Minimum could occur. The number of sunspots in 2008 was the 7th fewest since 1749, averaging only 2.9 sunspots/day. The most recent year with fewer sunspots was 95 years ago in 1913. Sunspots during the first three months of 2009 have remained exceptionally low, averaging only 1.2 sunspots/day. If this inactivity would persist throughout 2009, it would rank as the 2nd fewest since 1749, trailing only 1810 when no sunspots were observed.

The most reliable and widespread global weather observations have only been recorded since the mid 20th century. Unfortunately that is a period when generally high sunspot activity occurred, thus making it difficult to accurately quantify the impacts of decadal sunspot minima on climate. However, the regular reoccurrence of the 11-year sunspot cycle makes it possible to ascertain the short term impacts of sunspot minima and maxima on climate. Presumably, if short term climate is influenced every 11 years, then longer periods of sunspot inactivity would cause larger changes in climate. The availability of historical global weather observation analyses since 1948 allows us to compare surface temperatures during periods of high sunspot activity and periods of low sunspot activity. From 1948-2000, five complete solar cycles occurred and the 10th and 90th percentiles of sunspots each month were used to differentiate periods of low activity versus high activity. Temperature anomalies were averaged only when sunspots exceeded 160 (~ 90th percentile) and when sunspots were less than 10 (~ 10th percentile). It was found that the global average temperature anomalies during low sunspot periods were around 0.35°F cooler than during high sunspot periods. Even more significant is the notable impacts on the tropical east Pacific. La Nina is apparently favored during periods of low sunspots as surface temperatures averaged cooler than normal by more than 1°F over portions of the tropical east Pacific. The Storm Exchange science team will continue to monitor the current sunspot cycle and further expand our solar minima research to gain a better understanding of the impacts on agriculture and energy.