WAAY 31 Weather Blog - TNValleyWx.com

Tropical Storm Beryl Update…

tnvalleywx — Mon, 28 May 2012 00:09:14 +0000

000
WTNT32 KNHC 272348
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
800 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

…BERYL NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALREADY
ON THE COAST…

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…30.1N 80.5W
ABOUT 75 MI…115 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI…155 KM SE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…992 MB…29.29 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST. BERYL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH…17 KM/H. A WESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL…BERYL
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN
NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE THE BERYL
IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 MPH…110 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL…BUT ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
STRENGTH WOULD MAKE BERYL A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. STEADY
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL…AND BERYL IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…
185 KM FROM THE CENTER. JACKSONVILLE BEACH PIER RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH…80 KM/H…WITH A GUST TO 58 MPH…95
KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 992 MB…29.29 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA…2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA…1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION…WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS…INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS…ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.
Here is the latest update from the National Hurricane Center on Beryl…

RAINFALL…BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES…FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

tnvalleywx — Sun, 27 May 2012 15:50:34 +0000

From Chief Meteorologist Spencer Denton

*Saturday, May 27th Muscle Shoals broke a record with a high of 97. The old record was 96 set back in 1926.

FORECAST SUMMARY:
Current surface map below shows surface high pressure in control with Beryl hanging off the coast of Floriday. Another hot day ahead with near record-breaking temperatures. Highs will reach the mid to upper 90’s like yesterday. Muscle Shoals record is 96 today and will probably be broken for a second day in a row. Huntsville’s record is 99 and will be hard to break. Expect plenty of sun, so be prepared to break out the sunscreen. Memorial Day will be the same with highs a degree or two less in the low to mid 90’s and a mostly sunny sky. There is a small risk of a shower, but it is less than 20%.

REST OF THE WEEK: High pressure will slowly break down this week as an upper level wave moves into the region. Rain chances are small for the first half of the week with hot and humid conditions. High temps will drop into the 80’s by Wednesday and Thursday. Cloud cover will increase and rain chances go up by Thursday and Friday with cooler nights and mild days heading into the weekend. It begins to warm back up a week from Memorial Day. No sign of major severe weather the next 7 days.
Subtropical Storm Beryl: is 125 miles off the coast of Jacksonville, FL with wind around 60mph. Beryl has strengthened a bit but will slowly move inland over north Florida and south Georgia and weaken. It will weaken into an area of low pressure and eventually be picked up by the upper trough later this week. In the meantime, some soaking rain and a little wind will impact parts of northwest Florida. The rain will be welcome since they have suffered major drought conditions over the last few years.

SPECIFIC FORECAST
TODAY: Sunny & hot. High 96. Wind SE 5-10mph.
TONIGHT: Mainly Clear & Muggy. Low 68. Wind light.
MEMORIAL DAY: Mostly Sunny. An Isolated Storm. High 93. Low 69. Wind SE 5-10mph.
TUESDAY: Partly Cloudy. A few aftn. storms. High 90. Low 67.
WEDNESDAY: Partly Cloudy. An Isolated Storm. High 90. Low 65.
THURSDAY: Mostly Cloudy. Scatt’d Showers/Storms. High 85. . Low 63.
FRIDAY: Cloudy, Showers & Storms. High 75.

AT THE BEACH: A chance of showers or storms heading into Memorial Day, otherwise partly cloudy and hot. Highs today in the low to mid 90’s but highs fall back into the upper 80’s this week. . Lows will remain in the low 70’s. Expect a chance of an afternoon shower or storm each day with at least 4 or 5 hours of sunshine each day. Beryl should remain to the east and will not have much impact except with a few storms on Monday or Tuesday.
Connect with me here.
Facebook
Twitter

Memorial Day Wknd

tnvalleywx — Sat, 26 May 2012 02:33:22 +0000

A HOT weekend in store around the TN Valley…..especially for Saturday as we’ll expect high’s hovering around 97°. That is approximately 6-8° above normal for this time of year! We will definitely be feeling the humidity this weekend; however, not near as humid as originally forecasted which is good news for those of you that will be outside for long periods of time over the weekend. Taking a look at the Surface Map above…… High Pressure continues to dominate the forecast holding any rain chances at bay at least until late Sunday into the beginning of the week as we will begin to see this High Pressure Ridge break down. Overall, expect a DRY but HOT Memorial Day Weekend but don’t be surprised if we see some early showers popping up on Monday as the Low Pressure disturbance off the Florida Coast works its way North ushering in enough Tropical Moisture to see a few showers on Monday and lingering into the beginning of the week. Have a great night and stay hydrated this weekend!

Merry Perry

525Capture

tnvalleywx — Sat, 26 May 2012 02:32:38 +0000

Friday Morning Update

tnvalleywx — Fri, 25 May 2012 13:44:11 +0000

It’s finally Friday in the Valley and on the heels of the unofficial start to the Summer travel season, it only makes sense for us to have summertime weather! Look for mostly sunny skies this afternoon with highs making it to 91. Heat index will be higher as more moisture will converge in the area.

Similar patterns continue for the weekend before a better rain chance arrives late Monday into Tuesday. We’ll stay steady warm in the 90′s during the afternoons for the next few days. Have a blessed weekend!

Ben Luna
WAAY 31 Weather

Midday Wx Update

tnvalleywx — Thu, 24 May 2012 15:49:29 +0000

Good Thursday morning! Your weather today remains sunny and hot with today’s high bumbing right up to 90 this afternoon.

Mostly clear skies tonight with lows in the 60′s can be expected over the TN Valley however a few more changes are up for the coming weekend. While the majority of the area will remain dry, know that a few “pop-up” isolated storms will be a slight possibility Saturday evening and Sunday.

More moisture will make for a more humid weekend when afternoon heat indexes gettin’ close to the 100 degree mark. Rain chances run in good number by Tuesday of next week.

Ben Luna

Spring-Like Morning will end with a Summer-Like afternoon

tnvalleywx — Thu, 24 May 2012 15:13:45 +0000

A nice morning across the TN Valley!!!! Temperatures are sitting in the Mid-Lower 70′s with exception of Collinsville already up to 76° at this time (9:40 a.m.). Despite how comfortable it feels now…..we’ll expect Temps to rise into the upper 80′s to near 90° in some parts across the Valley today! Why? We have a nice High Pressure Ridge to thank for this weather and we hope you like it b/c it’s only going to get warmer as the weekend approaches and dare I say “humid” as well. You got it!

Taking a look at the Surface Map below (this is over the course of the next 12 hours) you can see High Pressure off the Gulf which will continue to dominate our forecast area over the next couple of days and through Memorial Day Weekend keeping us dry,sunny, and HOT; however, as this High Pressure slowly advects NE with it clockwise rotation pulling in enough moisture to give us quite an increase in humidity levels Sat afternoon and into Sunday so be mindful of that if you plan to be outdoors for long periods of time over this weekend.

A very slight chance for a shower on Monday mainly for areas East of I-65 as well as in some of our Southeastern TN county viewing areas (Lincoln,Franklin, Moore County Tenn.) but our best chance of rain returns Tuesday extending into Wednesday! For now, let’s enjoy this weather!!!! Have a great Thursday!

-Merry Perry

Quiet Spring Continues… Big-Time Warm-Up on Tap!

tnvalleywx — Wed, 23 May 2012 22:44:21 +0000

After (happily) making it all the way through April and most of May without a single tornado warning in North Alabama, many are likely thinking “Why has the weather been so quiet?”

The answer lies in the jet-stream, the strong winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere that act as a steering current for storms. Normally, from late March through early May, the jet stream is more or less running through the middle of the country, often steering storm systems within striking distance of the TN Valley:

Typical April jet stream

For much of this Spring so far, the upper level steering current has found itself lodged over the northern part of the country, leading to an above-average amount of severe weather for the Spring in places like the Upper Midwest. Here is a look at observed upper level winds today:

Northern Jet Stream

Notice how the main flow is well to our north, through the Dakotas, Minnesota, and parts of southern Canada. Underneath the jet stream is a big ridge of high pressure that will amplify over the next few days, keeping us dry, while at the same time driving our temperatures up into the mid 90ºs by Friday and through the weekend! Initially on Thursday and Friday, the high heat won’t come with oppressive humidity, as clockwise spinning high pressure at the surface sits over us, pumping the moist air just to our west/southwest:

Thursday PM Temps

As the high shifts east into the weekend, we will get a bump in humidity while still keeping the temps in the mid 90s:

Saturday PM Temps

Bottom Line: The Memorial Day Weekend will be hot and humid with heat index values close to 100º at times, so make sure to stay well hydrated if you plan on being out and about!

Rain chances re-enter the forecast by early-mid week next week, and the rain will come along with a reprieve from the high heat. There are still no significant severe weather prospects in our future, at least over the next couple of weeks.

- Ari Sarsalari

Twitter: @AriWeather
Facebook: www.facebook.com/AriSarsalari

Wednesday’s Weather

tnvalleywx — Wed, 23 May 2012 18:26:11 +0000

It’s a beautiful Wednesday in the TN Valley with plenty of sunshine and temperatures that are “just right”. Today high will warm to 84 with overnight lows expected around the 58 degree mark. Tomorrow continues a warming trend with highs in the upper 80′s to low 90′s.

More humid air will inject into the region for tomorrow and Friday so prepare for “dog days” type weather in the TN Valley. Still looks like rain will hold off until early next week. We’ll continue to revise that precip outlook as the time gets closer.

Have a great Hump Day!

Ben Luna
Facebook
Twitter

Tuesday Evening Forecast Discussion…

tnvalleywx — Tue, 22 May 2012 21:53:18 +0000

From Chief Meteorologist Spencer Denton

FORECAST SUMMARY: Just a few storms in Jackson and Dekalb county this evening, otherwise, expect clearing overnight. High pressure will build in for the rest of the week and temps will warm up more each day. Highs are still expected to be in the low to mid 90’s over the weekend with lows in the mid to upper 60’s. We do have some soil moisture in areas that have seen rain over the past week or two, so that may keep us out of the mid 90’s in spots. An upper level wave will push a cold front in here by Tuesday of next week triggering more showers and storms. Memorial Day still looks mainly dry with just an isolated shower or storm.

TONIGHT: An Early Storm East. Decreasing Clouds. Cool and Dry. Low 54. Wind light.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly Sunny & Warm High 86. Low 59. Wind SW 5-10mph.
THURSDAY: Mostly Sunny. High 91. Low 65.
FRIDAY: Mostly Sunny. Hot High 92. Low 67.
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: Partly Cloudy. Hot & Humid. High in Low to mid 90’s. Lows in upper 60’s to near 70..

AT THE BEACH: Water temps are in the low 80’s along the Gulf Coast. Most days will be partly sunny and hot. Highs will be in the low 90’s. Lows in the low 70′s.

Connect with me here.
Facebook
Twitter