News 8 Weather Blog

Finally Warm! (And the Summer Weather Outlook)

noreply@blogger.com (News 8 Weather) — Mon, 23 May 2016 12:23:00 +0000

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

So, our winter wasn't bad. At all. If you don't like winter. As one viewer said, winter never really came around, but it also didn't know when to leave. Well, that is finally changing. It is looking like we will finally get some true summer-like weather as we head into the "unofficial" start of summer.

The Memorial Day weekend will see temperatures rising back into the lower and mid 80s, with more humidity, as well. To go along with that, we will see some scattered showers and storms. But, that's ok. We could use a little rain, and we can definitely use some warmth! Enjoy!

PS - in case you missed it, here is the News 8 summer weather outlook. Check it out! http://www.rochesterfirst.com/news/local-news/rochesters-summer-forecast

More Winter...April Fools!...Not

noreply@blogger.com (News 8 Weather) — Wed, 30 Mar 2016 15:27:00 +0000

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

Much like most of the winter, March was wimpy on the snowfall front. We only recorded 3.2", about a foot shy of the average. The seasonal snow has been just 54", which is 39.7" shy of the seasonal average. Rochester is just outside of the top 10 for least snow in March, and seasonal snow, so we won't be breaking any records on that front.

That being said, winter looks to make a return this weekend. Models have been consistent in bringing in an arctic blast Saturday night and Sunday, with some minor accumulating snow possible Saturday night. It'll likely only be a few inches, but will likely fall overnight, so the strong Spring sun won't have an effect on that. More impressive, is the cold to follow on Sunday, and could have another weaker blast of cold air Monday/Tuesday.

It also looks like we will have plenty of ups and downs in the temperature department through at least early April, with warm-ups, followed by brief shots of cold air. So, spring will be spring around WNY!

Tricky Forecast Next Week

noreply@blogger.com (News 8 Weather) — Sun, 20 Mar 2016 03:42:00 +0000

From highs in the 70s early in the month to the seasons first thunderstorm last week to cold air this weekend, we've seen some wild swings in the weather the past few weeks and it looks like this changeable pattern will continue into next week.

The large scale pattern will feature a southwest flow aloft from the Plains into the Northeast. This will send a series of disturbances and low pressure systems into the region with several rounds of precipitation through next week.

A stationary front will waver back and forth across the region from Tuesday through Thursday making for a very tough temperature forecast. South of the front, temperatures will warm into the 50s and 60s but north of this boundary, highs will struggle to climb out of the 30s.

Check out the temperature forecast from the ECMWF model Thursday afternoon. Notice the tight temperature gradient from north to south across the region.

This also makes for a tricky precipitation type forecast. North of the front, a mix of rain and snow can be expected but south, rain showers and maybe even a few thunderstorms could occur.

Expect drastic changes in the forecast over the next few days depending on exactly where this front ends up.

Written By: Meteorologist Matt Jones

Is Winter Over?

noreply@blogger.com (News 8 Weather) — Fri, 11 Mar 2016 11:56:00 +0000

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

Scott pulled some winter statistics together, showing the 2015-2016 Rochester winter season being the 2nd least snowiest since the 1950s. We've recorded just over 51" of snow this season. With the taste of Spring (and even summer) the last few days, many people are wondering if that's it for winter? I'm going with no. It's WNY, after all!

Yes, it's more than a week away, but the warm pattern looks to flip flop and turn cooler. GFS is showing a deep cut-off low developing by late next week, keeping us unsettled and a bit cool.

GFS and even to a certain extend the Euro wants to develop a late season winter storm somewhere in the Northeast. While it's wayyyyyyyy early to even put this in the forecast, I know many on this blog are just itching for one last hurrah. So, like we always say, we'll keep and eye on it and see how it develops...or doesn't develop. But remember - March (and even to a certain extent April) can produce some wild weather in these parts. Enjoy!

Here We Go Again

noreply@blogger.com (News 8 Weather) — Mon, 29 Feb 2016 16:49:00 +0000

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

El Nino sure wants to keep us WNY mets busy! No, we don't have another "snowstorm," per say, but we do have our 3rd significant synoptic storm in as many weeks in the next 36-48 hours.

Our first storm dumped record snow on us. Last week's dumped record rain on us. This one looks to have both rain and snow, along with a wintry mix.

Of course, it all comes down to the precise track, but at this point, it looks like some warm front light snow will lift through western New York Tuesday midday/afternoon with little, if any accumulation. This is where things get interesting. Some sleet and freezing rain is likely to mix in with rain and snow overnight Tuesday, before changing over to all snow early Wednesday morning. What this means for accumulations: Niagara Frontier (Route 104 west of Rochester) could see a decent snowfall. Rochester and the Genesee Valley could see some accumulating icy mix of sleet and freezing rain, with a few inches of snow on top of that. Finger Lakes could see more rain to begin with, then a little icy mix, followed by a little snow.

Bottom line, doesn't look like a major snow-maker for most of us, although areas closer to Buffalo could pick up a decent plowable snow. And Wednesday morning's commute is looking like another one where you'll want to leave yourself extra time and patience!

What happens next week?

noreply@blogger.com (News 8 Weather) — Sun, 21 Feb 2016 00:25:00 +0000

There's been a lot of buzz recently about another potential winter storm for next week but at this point, it's still WAY too soon to say how this system will impact western New York.

Right now, the energy that will ultimately spawn this developing area of low pressure is still sitting out over the Pacific Ocean so forecast models are having a really tough time figuring out what to do. Once this upper level energy moves onshore, models will have more data to work with and hopefully they will start to come into some agreement.

A few days ago, it looked as though this potential storm would move along the coast bringing another round of snow but over the past day or so, most models have shifted the track significantly further west. A further west track would draw in much milder air and bring a rain/snow mix to much of western New York with little accumulation.

Right now, our forecast is leaning toward a warmer system with less potential for a major snow event. That said, it's still several days out and a lot can change between now and then. Keep checking back with us for updates.

Written By: Meteorologist Matt Jones

Final Post Before The Storm

noreply@blogger.com (News 8 Weather) — Tue, 16 Feb 2016 03:25:00 +0000

WRITTEN BY: SCOTT HETSKO

Looks like the area will indeed see a heavy, wet snow beginning overnight. The heaviest snow will fall through the morning hours with snow fall rates of 1-2" per hour from Rochester and areas West.

It will be a very sharp line between 12" of snow and 4" from Ontario County East. I remain worried about a few hours of mixing lowering snowfall totals in central Monroe County but there's nothing that we can do but wait and see. The exact location of the deformation zone will be where the most snow occurs. Right now I think that sets up near Churchville extending Southwest into NE Wyoming County. It's going to be a fun one!

The next one is mostly snow

noreply@blogger.com (News 8 Weather) — Mon, 15 Feb 2016 03:05:00 +0000

WRITTEN BY: SCOTT HETSKO

Why did I come back in Winter?! A storm system will develop quickly along the base of an upper level trough Monday evening. Initially snow will break out in response to warmer air trying to move in aloft. The heaviest snow looks to fall overnight into the first part of Tuesday. Below you can see the center of low pressure close to Binghamton at 1 p.m. Tuesday afternoon.

More agreement is coming into place that our thermal profile will stay below freezing throughout the storm duration. As you can see from the Skew-T, notice how the temperature (RED) and dewpoint (GREEN) lines stay behind the 0 degree isotherm vertically. This would indicate an all snow scenario.

As I mentioned earlier, the heaviest snow will likely fall between 6am and 2pm Tuesday. Below is a forecast radar composite for Tuesday morning. The ride to work will be a snowy one. Snowfall accumulations will be plowable for many (6+") Further East and Southeast in the Finger Lakes, a wintry mix will hold down the snow totals. We'll have specific snow forecast numbers on News 8 tomorrow evening.

Coldest Air of the Season Looms

noreply@blogger.com (News 8 Weather) — Mon, 08 Feb 2016 11:53:00 +0000

After a relatively mild weekend, the large scale weather pattern will undergo some big changes across the country this week.

A large ridge of high pressure will build over the west while at the same time, a deep trough of low pressure will form over the Northeast. This will allow cold air that is currently building in northern Canada to spill south into our region by the second half of the week.

The first surge of Arctic air will arrive Wednesday night into Thursday with highs Thursday struggling to climb into the mid teens. This cold air combined with a northwest wind direction will help generate lake effect snow squalls along the south shore of Lake Ontario, including much of Monroe county. It's still much too soon to say how much snow we'll see but several inches of fluff will be possible.

The second surge of Arctic air will plunge south by the weekend bringing the coldest temperatures we've seen in about a year. Several reliable forecast models we use are showing some truly bitter air arriving.

The GFS model is showing highs not even climbing above zero by Saturday afternoon!

The ECMWF model shows highs barely climbing into the single digits.

Factor in the wind and wind chills will plummet 10 to 20 below zero at times. Bottom Line: this will probably be the coldest stretch of weather this winter and we'll likely see several inches of snow piling up from Wednesday through the weekend.

Stay tuned for more updates!

Written By: Meteorologist Matt Jones

The Return (or, Arrival) of Winter

noreply@blogger.com (News 8 Weather) — Sun, 31 Jan 2016 22:57:00 +0000

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

After the warmest and least snowy December on record in Rochester, January behaved a little more like January should. We slowly added nearly 2 feet of snow for the month (22.5" to be exact), and averaged a few degrees above average. The first 48-72 hours of February will be quite mild with likely record warmth on Wednesday as a deep storm system tracks once again off to our west. This will be the trigger to a more winter-like pattern heading into early February.

After Wednesday, temperatures will crash to more seasonable levels (lower to mid 30s) for the rest of this week and into the weekend, while it's looking more likely that a mid-late winter cold snap will return into the middle of February.

At this point, we don't see any big snow events for us, so we will still be lacking that, but there are a few lows on the horizon that both long-range GFS and Euro are latching onto. So, hang onto your hats this week, and then hang onto your winter jackets, at least for a little while longer.

Familiar pattern returns

noreply@blogger.com (News 8 Weather) — Fri, 29 Jan 2016 13:47:00 +0000

We've seen bouts of cold air and minor snow events the past several weeks but many snow lovers are still waiting for the big one. Well...you're going to have be patient because there's not much wintry weather in sight.

We will see some local accumulation today with lake effect squalls but as we head into the weekend, a familiar pattern is going to develop across the country. A deep trough of low pressure will develop across the western half of the country and into the Midwest with a ridge of high pressure building over the Northeast.

Several areas of low pressure will develop over the Southern Plains and then lift northeast into the western Great Lakes, remaining well west of western New York. This places us in a very mild, breezy and occasionally wet weather pattern into the middle of next week. Any significant wintry weather will impact the Rockies and western high plains.

By the middle of next week, temperatures could soar into the mid 50s, nearly 20-25 degrees above average for this time of year.

There are signs that some much colder air will arrive by the end of next week but even with that, still no real signal of any significant winter storm for western New York.

Written By: Meteorologist Matt Jones

It's a Nor'easter! For Them, Not Us

noreply@blogger.com (News 8 Weather) — Wed, 20 Jan 2016 03:34:00 +0000

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

We got some snow! Woohoo! No, really, it was nice to actually have to forecast some snow, and we are now bumped up to well over a foot on the season!

Sarcasm aside, there is a pretty significant storm on the way, and it's headed oh so close...but so far away from us. All signs are pointing to a high-impact event for the Mid-Atlantic. From DC, to Philly, possibly NYC and New England. Some will be measuring snow in feet (or 1'+). As it looks right now, we are just too far west. Go figure, all season long we've been on the warm side of storms, with everything developing and hooking west. Now, the biggest storm of the season, goes east.

Take a look at some of these totals from the latest Wednesday morning 0z NAM:

Still one to watch, at least for another day or so...

Lake effect machine gets cranking again!

noreply@blogger.com (News 8 Weather) — Sun, 17 Jan 2016 00:16:00 +0000

Remember what happened this past Tuesday with that brief period of whiteout conditions? We could see a repeat performance tomorrow afternoon as a strong Arctic front quickly sweeps east through the region. A period of moderate to heavy snow and gusty winds will accompany the front with a quick 1-2" of snow during that time.

Here's a look at snowfall accumulations through tomorrow evening (more snow will fall after this):

As colder air pours southeast tomorrow night and Monday, the lake effect machine will get cranking again. Once it starts, it looks like it will keep going right through the middle of the week with some folks measuring the white stuff in feet once again. Like the last lake effect event we saw, locations closer to the Lakeshore and into Wayne county will pick up the heaviest accumulations with these amounts quickly tapering off as you head south.

The one difference this time around is that the wind will have a slightly more northwest component and this could push the more significant snow bands further south into the city of Rochester. Still too soon to say if this will actually happen but there is a chance. There's much higher confidence that locations along and north of route 104 in Monroe county will see several inches piling up.

Lake Effect Snow Watches have already been posted for Monroe and Wayne counties for early next week:

Stay tuned for more updates!

Written By: Meteorologist Matt Jones

Big snow for some, not much for others

noreply@blogger.com (News 8 Weather) — Mon, 11 Jan 2016 17:30:00 +0000

The much advertised pattern change that we've been talking about for over a week now has arrived. A deep trough of low pressure is developing across the Northeast and will remain in place for at least the next week bringing plenty of cold for everyone. The snow part of the forecast? Well that's a bit tricky.

As is usually the case in this type of pattern, those favored snow belts east of Lake Erie and Ontario will get clobbered this week with lake effect. The first event is already ongoing and will continue through tonight delivering a fresh 1-3 feet of snow to the Tug Hill and over a foot in areas south of Buffalo. The second event will get going Tuesday evening and then last into Thursday morning and this could be even more significant with several feet of snow burying locations east of the lakes once again.

If you're hoping for a big snow in Rochester, it looks like we'll miss out once again. Wind direction is key when it comes to lake effect and it looks like a westerly flow will keep the majority of the snow east of the lakes through the week.

A clipper system will bring some opportunity for snow to all areas on Tuesday but only a few inches at most. Gusty winds could cause some blowing snow for a brief time Tuesday afternoon. Behind this system, wind direction will take on a slightly more northwest component and this could put locations right along the lake and into Wayne county in line to see more significant amounts.

Here's a look at snowfall amounts from now through Wednesday afternoon and notice that the heaviest snow falls east of the lakes with just a minor accumulation in Rochester.

Written By: Meteorologist Matt Jones

The Least Snow EVER?!

noreply@blogger.com (News 8 Weather) — Thu, 07 Jan 2016 03:34:00 +0000

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

Ok, lets not get ahead of ourselves...or even kid ourselves. We live in western New York. Winter is a LONG season. It seems like with just 5.6" of snowfall with a quarter of the month almost gone (ok, sort of), we should be on track for some sort of record. It got me thinking - last year we ended up with average seasonal snow (101"), but that's only because we got 57% of that seasonal snow in February and March - late winter. Just for kicks, I looked up the least snow ever recorded in a season - 29.2" back in the 1932-33 season. And in that season - February and March were heavy (relatively) in the snowfall department, with 10.7" and 8", respectively, for 64% of the seasonal snow.

What I'm saying is - don't give up! Like I said, winter is a long season, and we tend to get a good chunk of our snowfall on the back end. So, while our numbers look abysmal right now for snow lovers, there is so much time to make up for it, and it's just silly to even be thinking about the "least snow ever," at least for the season. We already took that for December :)

Transient Winter Weather Continues

noreply@blogger.com (News 8 Weather) — Tue, 05 Jan 2016 01:18:00 +0000

Although colder air has returned, it only has a temporary visa thanks to the strongest El Niño in recorded history. Temperatures this week will climb back to above normal, even 40's by late week. We expect sunshine to return to Rochester on Tuesday. The last "mostly sunny" day was WAAYYY back on November 17th!

On another note, I'm happy to announce that I will return to channel 8 on February 7th.

Until then....

Scott Hetsko

Blast of Frigid Air and Snow!

noreply@blogger.com (News 8 Weather) — Sun, 03 Jan 2016 00:16:00 +0000

For those that have been patiently waiting for true winter weather, your chance will come Sunday night and Monday as a strong Arctic cold front dives south through the region!

Scattered snow showers along with gusty west winds will be the rule Sunday ahead of the front with only spotty light accumulations for most. A brief but intense burst of snow could form along the Arctic front as it pushes south from Lake Ontario by late afternoon.

As much colder air arrives and wind direction switches to the northwest, multiple bands of lake effect snow will develop along the south shore of Ontario Sunday night and then continue through Monday afternoon. Eventually, the air will become too dry and stable to support snow and this will occur by late Monday afternoon shutting down the lake effect. Before that happens, many locations that have yet to see much snow this season could pick of several inches of fluff.

Here's our latest thinking for snowfall amounts:

In addition, the coldest air of the season will be arriving behind this front with highs by Monday struggling to climb out of the mid teens and wind chills in the single digits and even below zero.

Here's a look at projected wind chill values by midday Monday:

Written By: Meteorologist Matt Jones

Messy Mix Monday

noreply@blogger.com (News 8 Weather) — Mon, 28 Dec 2015 03:51:00 +0000

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

Classic setup Monday for at least a little ice. Canadian High funneling in cold, Northeasterly wind locks sub-freezing temps at the surface. Meanwhile, the deep south system opens up and moves northward, spreading moisture and warm air over. The question is - how much snow? How much sleet? How much freezing rain? Freezing rain amounts don't look overly impressive, but we all know any little bit of ice can be treacherous on roads and sidewalks. Doesn't appear to be enough to cause any major power outages.

Now, could the snow be enough to knock us out of the "least snow in December" running? Possibly. It would take 2.6" to do that. If we do NOT get that in this system, the least snow in December record may stand. Yes, it looks like some snow in the form of lake effect late week, but could end up being another 'east of the lakes' event, leaving the ROC snow-free. But this is lake effect, and trying to forecast where and how much 5 days in advance is just moronic :)

Winter? Ha!

noreply@blogger.com (News 8 Weather) — Mon, 21 Dec 2015 21:53:00 +0000

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

Winter officially arrives tonight, but as most of you know, winter is really nowhere to be found. Wait, that's not true. Winter has been hanging out in the Rockies, Plains and Upper Midwest. Winter is nowhere to be found in the Northeast. In fact, it's looking like December will go down in both the temperature and snowfall books, for a LACK of December-ish weather.

The temperatures: We've smashed record high temperatures this month, and it looks like we'll do it again Christmas Eve, with highs forecasted in the low, likely even mid 60s. Old record is 59°. Not only that, but with about 10 days left in the month, we are over 10° above our average monthly temperature, and over 3° warmer than the WARMEST December recorded in Rochester:

The snow: We did get our first measurable snowfall in November - a whopping 1.2" total. Since then - nada, zip, zilch, or close to it. Officially in the month of December (at the airport): a "trace" of snow. Through Christmas, we have just about zero chance of snow. After Christmas, we will "cool" down a bit (40s, all rain), and early next week it looks like we have another western tracking storm, which means another surge of mild air and rain. If we don't want to go down in the record books as this being the December without snow, it looks like we'll need some moisture with a bit of cold air that may try to make its way in around New Year's Eve. May.

I'm not giving up hope on a winter-less winter. At all. In talking, Scott mentioned that he could see winter returning later in January or February. Personally, I just think Scott has the power to hold off winter until he gets back, so he can enjoy forecasting it :)

El Niño in Full Force?

noreply@blogger.com (News 8 Weather) — Mon, 14 Dec 2015 01:15:00 +0000

It appears our very strong El Niño is in full swing. Thanks in part to the NWS Buffalo for some of these stats: as we know, the last 2 very strong El Niños occurred in 1982-1982 and 1997-1998. Ok. According to NWS BUF, Rochester had hit 70°+ only 8 times during the December through February since 1871. Two of the last 3 of those 70°+ days occurred in December, 2012, February, 1997 and December, 1982. 1997 and 1982 were both those very strong El Niño years. 1982-1983 season had 59" of snow, while 1997-1998 season had nearly 100". So, while there's no real correlation in the snowfall department, we are at least starrtjmg meteorological winter more like the snow-starved 1982 season...to be continued...

2015-2016 Winter Outlook

noreply@blogger.com (News 8 Weather) — Fri, 27 Nov 2015 03:53:00 +0000

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

Hello! Yes, we are still here. And yes, this blog is still up and running. Matt and I have had a bit more on our plate with Scott being out. BUT - his plan is to be back in the new year! Yay! In the meantime, if you missed Winter Ready 2015, here is a link to it: Winter Ready 2015 (scroll down to the bottom to watch each segment).

In a nutshell, here is what we are thinking for the long range winter: with the strong El Nino in play, we are thinking we will have a somewhat mild winter. Milder than last winter (but that shouldn't be hard to do!), with lots of ups and downs in the temperature department. You can already see this setting up the past few weeks with these surges of very mild air and wind, followed by plunging temperatures. Overall, we are thinking a dryer winter is in store for us in WNY. BUT what we will have to watch out for is the potential for some coastal storms bringing us some good synoptic snow.

NAO: We do think the North Atlantic Oscillation will come into play for us, but it's much harder to predict this far in advance, as opposed to El Nino, where forecasters are able to use this much further out in the future. We are thinking it will help to bring down a few bouts of the typically bitter cold air. Overall snow forecast: 70-90." Matt, Scott and myself put our heads together and this is what we came up with. We'll see how it actually plays out!

October Snowstorm of 2006

noreply@blogger.com (News 8 Weather) — Mon, 12 Oct 2015 14:17:00 +0000

While we are basking in sun and what could be out last real taste of summer-like warmth this season, we look back 9 years ago. Lake effect storm "aphid" was hitting western New York, specifically the buffalo area with heavy, wet snow. The rare storm hit so early in the fall season that many leaves still had most, if not all of their leaves. Hundreds of thousands of people lost power for days.

Here in Rochester, most of us just saw some flurries and flakes. Here was the end result:

And the write up from the National Weather Service: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/storm101206.html

TROPICAL TROUBLE?

noreply@blogger.com (News 8 Weather) — Wed, 30 Sep 2015 15:11:00 +0000

We've certainly seen our fair share of rain over the past 24 hours thanks to a slow moving front and a deepening area of low pressure moving in from the southwest but there could be plenty more ahead by the weekend.

Joaquin has now strengthened into a hurricane and is expected to become a strong category 2 or even a major hurricane over the next few days as atmospheric conditions become increasingly favorable. Then the million dollar question: Where does it track this weekend and early next week?

Models have been all over the place when it comes to the forecast track and there is a ton of uncertainty in our weekend forecast for western New York. If the storm tracks northwest and into the New England coast, we could see an extended period of heavy rain and gusty winds as far west as western New York. Models this morning however, show the storm taking a sharp turn to the west and moving into the southern Mid-Atlantic late this weekend and early next week.

Here's what the latest GFS is showing:

Notice the center of the storm moves onshore along the North Carolina/Virginia border, significantly further south than just 24 hours ago. With a very strong ridge sitting just east of Nova Scotia, it appears more likely that this southern solution will verify.

Still plenty of time for things to change between now and the weekend so keep checking back with us!

Meteorologist Matt Jones

'Tis the Season (Leaf Peeping Season)

noreply@blogger.com (News 8 Weather) — Tue, 15 Sep 2015 20:52:00 +0000

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

No, not for Christmas. Not even for snow. We're now getting into leaf peeping season, for all you Fall lovers out there. The I Love NY website issues weekly Fall foliage updates, and this week's is just starting to show some leaves just beginning to change color in the Catskills, highest peaks in the Adirondacks, and the Tug Hill Plateau. According to Accuweather (no, I'm not a leaf expert), the perfect autumn weather conditions for brilliant Fall colors is warm days, cool nights (without frost) and abundant sunshine. If this week's weather is any indication, colors will be vibrant this Fall! Time will tell...

NOT MUCH SUMMER THIS SUMMER

noreply@blogger.com (News 8 Weather) — Tue, 25 Aug 2015 12:52:00 +0000

It's not your imagination. We have seen our fair share of cool, wet weather this summer. The large scale pattern has featured a large ridge of high pressure across the Western and Central U.S. and a trough of low pressure over the Northeast for the past few months. This has led to a record setting wildfire season over the Pacific Northwest while our rainfall has been well above average.

Temperature-wise, we've only seen a handful of those hot, humid days. Since May, Rochester has officially recorded just three 90 degree days, compared to the average of nine. Last summer wasn't much different with just three days at or above 90.

Good news though for those wanting some more summer weather! Although we're dealing with the fall-like conditions this week, long range signals point toward another stretch of some very warm and humid weather by the end of August and continuing into the first part of September.

This is the outlook from the Climate Prediction Center calling for well above average temperatures across the Northeast by the end of the month:

Written By: Meteorologist Matt Jones