Summer Pastime

2013 Predictions

2013-03-28T19:39:00.003-07:00

Even though I've been spending most of my dwindling time for writing on crafting pieces for www.thatballsoutahere.com and www.beyondtheboxscore.com, I'm constantly irked that I have been neglecting my first source of publication, Summerpastime. Although anyone looking for my opinion on all matters baseball can follow me on Twitter at @summerpastime or on Facebook, Summerpastime was the original source of my baseball thoughts, and it still holds the key to my heart.

Now that that's out of the way, let's get down to business. The Major League Baseball regular season officially begins on March 31st when the Texas Rangers take on the Houston Astros. The next day, Monday April 1st is opening day, at which time every MLB team will have gotten in their first game of the season. Since we have just merely a weekend before beginning the season, I felt it only natural to share my predictions for the 2013 season. I'll first depict each division and share with you a blurb about each team in that division, and provide win/loss totals for each team.

Let's begin in the National League, the senior circuit, which lost a team, the Astros, this season, but retains numerous contenders for the playoffs. Note, this will look like a long post, but it reads quickly.

NL East:

1. Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals have the best team on paper in Major League Baseball. With young stars Bryce Harper and Ian Desmond titillatingly close to breaking out into full fledged stars, the Nationals have a fantastic young core to go along with veterans Jayson Werth, Adam LaRoche, and Kurt Suzuki. General Manager Mike Rizzo had a shrewd offseason adding center fielder Denard Span, starting pitcher Dan Haren, and closer Raphael Soriano, while losing none of the major components that aided in the Nationals 2012 run to the NLCS. This could be the year that Washington hosts its first World Series game 1933 and the first ever in Nationals franchise history. If you watch one game one television this season make it a Nationals game in which either Stephen Strasburg or Jordan Zimmerman start, it'll be worth your while. (103-59)

2. Philadelphia Phillies

As a Philly boy, I'm biased sure, but I also objectively see the Phillies taking 2nd in the NL East. While I have little faith in Ryan Howard, I see Domonic Brown breaking out, and Chase Utley staying healthy enough to play in at least 125 games. In addition, while I buy that Roy Halladay will be the 3rd best starting pitcher for the Phillies in 2013, Cole Hamels, and his new beard, will lead the rotation in all the major pitching categories, followed closely behind by fellow southpaw Cliff Lee. In fact, I think Cole Hamels will win the 2013 NL Cy Young Award. I love the signings of Mike Adams and Chad Durbin to stabilize a high ceiling and low floor bullpen featuring Jonathan Papelbon and Antonio Bastardo. Elsewhere in the lineup, I like Carlos Ruiz to continue his torrid pace at the plate, once he returns from his 25-game suspension. Phillies win the 2nd wildcard spot. (90-72)

3. Atlanta Braves

Atlanta made one incredible upgrade this offseason, the acquisition of Justin Upton. The Braves made a fantastic trade, one in which they gave up little, and added an incredible talent. In addition, GM Frank Wren added Justin's brother B.J., while promoting prospect Julio Tehran to the starting rotation. The two key losses here are Martin Prado and Brian McCann. McCann will return and provide value, but his absence will be felt. I love Andrelton Simmons at shortstop, but I think it will take 4 months for his offensive game to mature enough to make a difference for the Braves, even though his defense will be stellar for the entire 2013 season. I love their bullpen, but if Johnny Venters spends time on the DL, they will lose what I think is their best asset in relief (due to Kimbrel's forced position as the 9th inning pitcher and Venters' ability to pitch in more high leverage situations). This is a team that will be better in 2014 than 2013. (83-79)

4. New York Mets

Ask my Aunt and Uncle who are die-hard metropolitan fans, I'm anti-Mets. Still, this is a team I would pin as one that could surprise. When a team relies on young players, there exists a tendency towards volatility, sometimes good (think the Rays) sometimes awful (think the Nats). The Mets have three of my favorite pitching prospects in Zack Wheeler, Matt Harvey, and Noah Syndergaard even though I can never spell Syndergaard. These three, combined with catching prospect Travis D'arnaud leads me to think the Mets have a great future. The problem with looking towards the future is that the present won't be as pretty. The Mets need help offensively, sporting only David Wright, Ike Davis, and Daniel Murphy as legitimate offensive threats, and Murphy could be someone who could provide a decent prospect in return in a mid-season or offseason trade. Mets fans, I hope you all suffer, but objectively, wait a year or two and this could be a team competing for a wild card spot in the NL. (76-86)

5. Miami Marlins

The Marlins have a grade A farm system, but I'm worried their AAA and AA squads combined could beat the roster the Marlins currently have ready to open the 2013 regular season. Giancarlo Stanton constitutes the only high-caliber player in the entire Miami lineup. Look for catching Rob Brantley to compete for the Rookie of The Year Award, but much of his consideration is due to his offensive tendencies and ability to be give the chance to play all season. Ricky Nolasco is a sure-fire mid-season trade candidate, and even though he'll get beat up, I like Nathan Eovaldi to take significant steps forward in his maturation in 2013. Don't expect much from the Marlins in 2013. (63-99)

NL Central:

1. Cincinnati Reds

This will be the closest division race in the NL, but the Reds, led by my favorite current MLB player Joey Votto, will win the NL Central. I think Dusty Baker is a ruiner of pitchers, and that, more than anything is the best reason for putting Aroldis Chapman in the starting rotation, but even still, the Reds will do fine on the bump. Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos headline this rotation, and they will do so with grace. The Reds trio of Votto, Bruce, and Phillips, combined with new center fielder Shin-Soo Choo won't outscore the Cardinals, but the total package of this team just beats out their foes from St. Louis. While this might be a team that can win the NL Central I question their ability to go deep into the postseason with Ryan Ludwick in left field and only Cueto and Latos making noise in the rotation. (94-68)

2. St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals may finish 2nd in this division, but I actually think they are a more complete team than the Reds. The Cardinals are my favorite for franchise most likely to win now and most likely to win 5 years in the future. The Cardinals gave extensions to Allen Craig and Adam Wainwright, and still sport Yadier Molina as their everyday backstop. With Freese at third, Jay playing everyday in center field, and Carlos Beltran playing the last great season of his career, this Cardinals team has a great chance to make the playoffs. I like the Cardinals' rotational depth, but after Wainwright I don't see a possible ace, whereas the Reds sport two possibles in Cueto and Latos. No Jason Motte for at least part of the season hurts, but the Cardinals won't begin feeling the affects of Motte's absence until June, if he remains out that long. If Oscar Taveras comes up for more than half the season, this team could easily take 1st in the central. (88-74)

3. Pittsburgh Pirates

Some think the Brewers will place third in this division, but I like the Buccos. I'm high on what looks like a top-5 young core. Starling Marte and Pedro Alvarez will surprise people with their advancements, Alvarez is a candidate to hit 35 home runs, and a 20-20 season from Marte isn't out of his reach. Pitching-wise, this team is in significant need of the additions of young, current Minor Leaguers, Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon. Cole should make the MLB squad this season, but I hope the Pirates make the smart move for the future and keep Taillon till 2014. Adding Cole and Marte into fulltime roles, Russell Martin as the full-time catcher, and Jason Grilli as the closer will propel the Pirates just beyond the Brewers. One other note, look for Gregory Polanco, a prospect, to take another leap forward this season, putting him in the Buccos starting outfield in 2014. (81-81)

4. Milwaukee Brewers

Ryan Braun, Norichika Aoki, and Corey Hart constitute a solid core, but after that there isn't much to look at. The Brew Crew have a rotation with one legitimate pitcher, Yovani Gallardo, Kyle Lohse, who every baseball analyst sees regressing, and 3 others who are mediocre at best. Rickie Weeks should bounce back, but I don't see him being a top-5 2nd baseman in the NL. Hart is a very good player, but he's out for the first month or two, and with Ryan Braun always hovering between the suspended for PED use and not line, this is a team too volatile for me to predict a winning record. (75-87)

5. Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have a solid farm system, and a few young players of note including Starlin Castro, Darwin Barney, Brett Jackson, and Jeff Samardzija. On the other hand, the rest of the team is at best average. I like Edwin Jackson, but playing half of his games at Wrigley Field makes me nervous. Overall, the Cubs don't expect to win now, but come 2016, Theo Epstein and co. expect big things. I love their top prospect Javier Baez, but either he or Castro will have to switch positions to make room. If the Cubs can move Matt Garza, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Marmol, and either Scott Feldman or Carlos Villanueva within the next 10 months, the Cubs could be well on their way to seizing the top spot in the NL Central in 2016, but not in 2013. (69-93)

NL West:

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

I've gone back and forth on the Dodgers more than any team in MLB. This is a team that spent incredible sums of money in the offseason, plans to spend more as time passes, and wants to win more than anything. The addition of Zack Greinke to Clayton Kershaw gives LA the best 1-2 punch in the NL behind only Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels and just ahead of Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner. Their offense won't be top 5 in the NL until June, but once Hanley Ramirez returns from the DL and Carl Crawford gets back into baseball form, this is a scary scary lineup to face. The Dodgers will be better in 2014, with the addition of top prospect Yasiel Puig followed by the addition of Zack Lee in 2015. This is a team prime to make a trade to improve at the deadline, which could make them even more formidable. (92-68)

2. Arizona Diamondbacks

This is my stretch in 2013. Arizona has undergone a huge makeover, shedding talents like Justin Upton and Trevor Bauer, acquiring instead hard nosed players like Martin Prado, Adam Eaton, and Brandon McCarthy. While there may be a culture change in AZ, this is also a team that has the perfect mix of young talent, depth, and veteran presence to win in 2013. Paul Goldschmidt and Miguel Montero should both have great seasons, and even though Cody Ross and Adam Eaton will begin the season on the DL, the DBacks have built up enough depth to stay the course. Didi Gregorious and Tyler Skaggs will add some midseason energy and talent, giving Diamondbacks a good chance to take 2nd in the NL West. (87-75)

3. San Francisco Giants

The Giants are the World Series champions, but they are also an older team. Angel Pagan represents a very good addition, while shedding fan favorite Brian Wilson should be an addition by subtraction. Still, I'm not high on a team that puts so much faith in generating the almost the same lineup as the previous year, especially given their age. I like Matt Cain continuing his consistent efficiency, but Madison Bumgarner could be hit or miss, with the same going for Tim Lincecum. Offensively, the Giants have Buster Posey and Angel Pagan, but not much else to count on. This isn't a good sign, despite sporting one of the best bullpens in the NL. The Giants could easily take 2nd in this division, but I see them finishing 3rd. (82-80)

4. San Diego Padres

The Padres may finish 4th this year, but watch out. Jason Parks, the scouting guru at Baseball Prospectus, sees numerous great young pitchers in the Padres farm system as well as one of the best catching prospects in Austin Hedges. Combine those young players with current Major Leaguers Yasmani Grandal, Chase Headley, Jedd Gyorko, Cameron Maybin, and Yonder Alonso this is a team with a solid positional core, and high upside youth pitching core, a good sign for the future. Unfortunately, 2013 won't be a memorable one for San Diego, as they won't score enough or be able to pitch well enough to beat very many NL teams. Look for the Padres to trade another solid reliever this season for prospect, I see Luke Gregerson being that bullpen pitcher. (75-87)

5. Colorado Rockies

The Rockies, if they stay healthy will score plenty of runs, but no team in the NL will give up as many runs as the Rockies. This won't only be due to playing 81 games in hitter-friendly Coors Field, but that won't help. Juan Nicasio and Drew Pomeranz should take steps forward this season, but they will struggle in doing so. Offensively the key for the Rockies will be getting 150 games from star Troy Tulowitzki, and seeing improvement from catcher Wilin Rosario and Nolan Arenado. This team will lose a lot, so don't expect much. (66-96)

AL East:

1. Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays have the best pitching staff, starters and bullpen combined, in the American League. Add prospects Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi to that, and they not only have talent, but talented depth. This team needs their pitchers to perform well because they probably won't score a ton of runs. Having Evan Longoria in the starting lineup for a full season should help, but after Longoria there is a drop off. I cannot state how much I love Ben Zobrist's combined versatility and talent, but if top prospect Wil Myers doesn't come up, play at least 100 games, and hit for power, the Rays could fall into the 2nd spot in a competitive AL East. Still, their pitching is fantastic, so I see the Rays finishing 1st. (98-64)

2. Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays have the best "on paper" roster in the AL, but they also have risk attached to it. Josh Johnson looks great now, but can he sustain that success in August and September? I love the Melky Cabrera signing, but if he gets suspended that will be difficult for the Blue Jays. Jose Reyes must stay healthy for this team because Jose Bautista, Brett Lawrie, and Edwin Encarnacion need runners on base to hit to their full potential. I worry about their bullpen and their health, but one player I think will succeed is R.A. Dickey. Dickey will put up great numbers, contend for the Cy Young, and live up to his well deserved contract. Toronto has improved, and could finish anywhere from 1-4 in this division. (90-72)

3. Boston Red Sox

Call me crazy, but I think the Red Sox are on the right path back to winning. They made shrewd moves this offseason, going after veterans who desired higher AAV contracts who were willing to accept fewer years. In addition, the Red Sox retained their draft picks, giving them players who can create a winning atmosphere now, and giving them room to find players to continue that mentality in the coming years. The two key players for the Red Sox are Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz who both need to stay healthy and productive. Whether the Red Sox decide to trade or resign Ellsbury they will gain value, making this a franchise on the rise. Jackie Bradley Jr. and Xander Bogaerts headline the next generation, and these two players will do Red Sox nation proud. (83-79)

4. Baltimore Orioles

I love the Orioles, but I don't trust them. This is a team prime to compete for the top spot in the AL East in 2014, but I see a step back in 2013. Manny Machado will continue to develop, but he won't blossom until 2014-2015. Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman represent the pitching future, which will be much appreciated given the Orioles current starting rotation that essentially sports 5 #4 starters. Adam Jones is legit, but will see some regression in 2013, and while I like Nolan Reimold to rebound, I'm not sure J.J. Hardy will get on base enough and Nick Markakis will stay healthy enough for the O's to win enough games to be contenders. I like their bullpen, especially Pedro Strop, who I consider the best up and coming bullpen arm in the American League. (78-82)

5. New York Yankees

Many writers would spend paragraphs, nay pages, on the Yankees, but I'll explain their dilemma in a few short words. This team is both too old and, most importantly, too injured to succeed. If none of their players spent time on the DL, this team could win 94 games, but if even a few of them spend time injured, this team has significant cellar possibilities. I like C.C. and I like Kuroda, but after that question marks pop up everywhere. Mariano will be great, and I like Robertson, but this may be a very taxed bullpen come August. Offensively, Gardner will have a lot of steals, but not a good percentage because he will force the issue too often. Cano could win the MVP, but he'll have little support in the middle of the lineup. (75-79)

AL Central:

1. Detroit Tigers

The Tigers are the same team as last season but better. Closers are nice, but rarely make a big impact, so the decision to go with a "closer by committee" should benefit the Tigers more than hurt them. Adding Torii Hunter to replace Delmon Young may be one of the best moves this offseason, especially since the team will add Victor Martinez into the lineup as well. With a rotation of Verlander and bunch of #3 starters, the bullpen shouldn't be too taxed in the 5th and 6th innings, leading to more bullets come September. Playing a weak division won't hurt either. Oh, and then there's Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, almost forgot about them. (97-63)

2. Kansas City Royals

The Royals took big strides to get better in 2013, but found will find out the hard way that they haven't done enough to make the playoffs. KC added a top tier pitcher in James Shields, but gave up Jeff Francoeur upgrade and replacement in the process in Wil Myers. I see a bounce back year for Eric Hosmer, but not enough to even get him to the All-Star team. The Royals will disappoint a lot of KC fans, and it's sad because if free agents would be more willing to come to a team that has a rabid and dedicated fan base, the Royals could win this division. Sadly I don't see it happening. (83-79)

3. Cleveland Indians

Terry Francona was this team's best pickup in the offseason, and that's amongst a few other good ones in Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn. I like the Indians future outlook, better than any other team in this division, even more than Minnesota's. Still, this team will produce lots of strikeouts, and their pitchers will pitch far, far too much from the stretch. I like the Indians as team on the rise, especially with top prospect Fancisco Lindor getting better every month. I see this team turning Asdrubal Cabrera into a good trade piece, but not competing with legitimacy for another season or two. Still, Indians fans should be enthused. (77-85)

4. Chicago White Sox

The White Sox look similar to last year, except Adam Dunn is older, Alex Rios is older, Jake Peavy is older, and they lost A.J. Pierzynski. Chris Sale will be great again, but not as good as last season, and with few other additions, this team scream "blah" as much as any other in the Majors. Look for new General Manager Rick Hahn to make good moves at the deadline to improve this team for the future, but don't look for production in 2013. (75-87)

5. Minnesota Twins

I love the 2016 Minnesota Twins, but the 2013 version will lose a lot of games. If you see one AL rookie this year, take a look at Aaron Hicks who shows great hitting ability, for power and average, to all fields, as well as speed and the best young outfield arm in the Majors. Add prospects Miguel Sano and Oswaldo Arcia to the mix in the coming years and the Twins lineup could become explosive. Still, in 2013, the Twins look to "wait it out" and I expect few wins and many many losses. (68-94)

AL West:

1. Texas Rangers

I know the Angels have the flashy lineup and the A's stole our hearts in 2012, but the Rangers have the best mix of both. GM Jon Daniels made the smart move by not resigning Josh Hamilton, and didn't make a big hoopla after losing out on Zack Greinke. Instead, Texas plans on using one of the best, most MLB-ready, farm systems to fill holes. No Michael Young, well how about Mike Olt. Need another star talent to replace the Hamilton's, try the top rated prospect in all of baseball, Jurickson Profar. Add in veterans Lance Berkman and A.J. Pierzynski to the mix and this team has all the right pieces to compete for 162 games. Losing Martin Perez to injury will hurt the Rangers, but I see their pitching to be good enough to last them till at least July, when Daniels can deal for a pitcher to put them over the top, like Matt Garza. (96-66)

2. Los Angeles Angels

The Angels continue to be the winners of the offseason, at least in pazazz, but this team still sports some soft spots, like in their bullpen, and at the back of their rotation. Mike Trout will compete, if not win, the AL MVP, and Albert Pujols will have a Pujols-like year, but this team has too many question marks to take first in a difficult division. I like the changes Jared Weaver has made to his delivery, but I'm not crazy about C.J. Wilson. Ryan Madson, if healthy has one of the best fastball/change ups splits I've ever seen, but he has to return from Tommy John Surgery with gusto in order to make a difference. (89-73)

3. Oakland A's

Here's the problem. Ask me now and I see the A's finishing 3rd, but ask me tomorrow and I'd say 1st. This team has issues on paper, but when ever we doubt Billy Beane's strategy we become jesters in the court he rules as king. I like the A's outfield, especially adding Chris Young, and their rotation sports good talent and good depth, but this is a team with issues on the left side of the infield that worry me. I have the least confidence in this selection, but I'll place them 3rd nonetheless. I do however see a great season for Jed Lowrie, so look for him to produce, despite finding himself o the Dl twice this season. (82-80)

4. Seattle Mariners

This is the easiest selection of all as there is no way the Astros win enough games to take anything but last in the AL West, but it would seem improbable for the Mariners to finish higher than fourth. I see Brandon Maurer as a legitimate AL Rookie of the Year candidate, and I don't see King Felix slowing down, but this isn't a good team. This team has potential, but not enough to make a difference. With Danny Hultzen and Tijuana Walker waiting in the wings, the Mariners could have the best rotation in the AL by 2015, but it won't be until then that they compete for a playoff spot. Player to watch for on the Mariners is Michael Saunders, I think the world of his potential for having a break out season. (74-88)

5. Houston Astros

Not much to say here. This team has a $25 million MLB payroll combined, so don't expect much more than 65 wins. I like the addition of Chris Carter, as he will toy with the Crawford Boxes in left field in Houston, but other than the prospect of Jonathan Singleton coming up in July, the Astros have little to look forward to in 2013, 2014, and probably 2015. Wait a few years, Jim Crane and Jeff Luhnow will be laughing at us all when the Astros make the playoffs, but until then you'll see about as many fans at home games as wins on at the end of the year. (60-102)

NL Playoffs: Cardinals beat Phillies in Wildcard game. Nationals beat Cardinals and Dodgers beat Reds in divisional series. Nationals beat Dodgers in NLCS.

AL Playoffs: Angels beat Blue Jays in Wildcard game. Rays beat Angels and Tigers beat Rangers in divisional series. Tigers beat the Rays in the ALCS.

World Series: Nationals beat the Tigers to win the World Series.

NL MVP: Bryce Harper

NL Cy Young: Cole Hamels

NL ROY: Andrelton Simmons

AL MVP: Evan Longoria

AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander

AL ROY: Aaron Hicks

More than anything else, enjoy the best baseball has to offer, 2013 should be another fantastic season!

Update

2013-03-07T09:03:00.000-08:00

While Summerpastime is and will always be my favorite online location for expressing my thoughts on Baseball, I have been spreading my ideas and writing to two other websites. A Phillies site www.thatballsoutahere.com and an analysis based site www.beyondtheboxscore.com. Follow me there, and continue to check Summerpastime, you never know when something might pop up. I can also be found on Twitter at @summerpastime and on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/SummerPastime.

As always, thanks for reading.

Options For Everyone

2013-02-24T10:50:00.002-08:00

The business of Baseball transcends the game in many ways. Oftentimes purist fans want to forget about the business side of Baseball as it takes away from the joy of watching America's Pastime the way it was meant to be watched. On the other hand, like in medicine, philanthropy, and other parts of life, Baseball is a business, no matter how much we wish it weren't. While many heads in the clouds hope that one day Baseball will return to just a bunch of boys playing game after game in the summer sun, the business side of Baseball isn't going anywhere. In fact, embracing the money side of the game can enrich one's fandom. Determining the length, dollar amount, and other parts of contracts makes up such a large part of analyzing the game, that some focus solely on such topics. If your looking for a good website for all things business oriented concerning Baseball check out Maury Brown's website http://www.bizofbaseball.com/. For now, I want to discuss the idea of an option.

Adam LaRoche

Every player's contract has an average annual value, a yearly dollar amount that when combined equals the total value of said player's contract. So, for example, this offseason Adam LaRoche of the Washington Nationals signed a 2-year contract worth $22 million. He will earn $10 million in 2013 and $12 million in 2014. That $22 million counts as his base salary. Options are one-year additions that teams and players' representatives negotiate on when discussing a contract that have a dollar amount associated with them, but are not guaranteed unless the option is "picked up" or the option vests. Options give teams and players flexibility. Sometimes tacking on an option to a contract can make negotiations run more smoothly, other times they can be deal breakers, causing the two sides to forgo a contract and move on. More often than not, options are useful tools for both a player and the team; giving both sides a bit more wiggle room when discussing contracts involving tens of millions of dollars.

A few different types of options exist, including team options, player options, mutual options, and vesting options. I'll give a quick synopsis of each type, using examples to illustrate the positive and negative affects of each. First, let's discuss the team option. Team options, or club options, are the most commonly utilized form of the option. In his book, "The Extra 2%", Jonah Keri mentions club options when discussing ways in which the lowly Tampa Bay Devil Rays, now known only as the Rays, got the most out of the contracts they offered to top tier players. Keri describes it best when he says, "But with a club option, the team wields all the power. Got a 40-home run hitter? Keep him. Did he turn into Mario Mendoza? Happy trails." Team options give a club's front office complete latitude as to whether to keep or release a player. If an option has a dollar amount that a player would not find on the open market due to attrition in productivity then the team will choose to not pick up said option because no team wants to waste money on a player who isn't worth the money he will receive.

James Shields

On the other hand, using the example of the Rays, tacking on multiple team options onto a contract given to a young player could allow a team to keep said player for relatively less money than that player would make on the open market, making such an option very valuable. For example, when the Rays offered James Shields a contract early in his career, they added three player options on to the end of the deal, anticipating that Shields would only get better with time, and thus giving them complete autonomy when making the decision to keep him or not. Veterans who sign contracts during their prime years rarely allow teams to add club options onto their deals, preferring the other types of options instead, but young players who haven't proven their worth yet, or older players who are on the wrong part of the aging curve accept team options because it leaves some possibility that they could continue playing without becoming a free agent. Oftentimes, if a team refuses to give a player a contract without a club option attached, the player's agent will demand that a buyout clause be attached. A buyout clause is a dollar amount that a team must pay the player if said team decides not to pick up the club option, thereby securing the player some money no matter which way the club decides to go.

Derek Jeter

Now that you understand what a team option entails, let's move on to a player option. Player options are simple; they constitute the exact opposite of a club option. If teams place club options on younger or older players' contracts, player options are more often seen on contracts of players in their prime, or franchise players' contracts. Since the team has the money, front offices rarely want to allow a player to decide whether he will play another year after the base years of his contract have expired. It leaves teams with fewer alternatives, making it more difficult for General Managers and their staffs to plan for the future. On the other hand, some players are just worth it. For example, Derek Jeter, the face of the Yankees franchise, a future first-ballot hall of famer, and a consistently productive player even in his late thirties, had a player option attached to the contract he signed with the Yankees in 2010. The foundation of the contract runs through 2013, with a player option worth $8 million for 2014. Jeter's AAV for the base of the contract is about $17.6 million, significantly more than the dollar amount associated with the 2014 player option. Like club options, player options commonly have buyout clauses linked to them. In Jeter's case, the team has a $3 million buyout option they must pay if Jeter declines the player option for 2014. Player options are rarer than club options, but for a player as important to a one club as Jeter is to the Yankees, teams will do whatever is necessary to ensure that player signs a deal with them.

Conceptually, player and club options have little complexity to them. But wait, there's more. Another type of option seen in Baseball is the mutual option. This type of option combines the aspects of a team option and a player option. Essentially, a mutual option is an option that both the player and team must agree to. Wendy Thurm, a former lawyer, and writer for www.fangraphs.com describes the positive and negative aspects of a mutual option best:

"A mutual option is a hedge against volatility in the market for that player in that particular option year. If the player’s value plummets, the team can decline the option and pay the buyout. If the player’s value rises, he can decline the option and seek a better deal as a free agent. If the player’s value is stable, however, then it might be in both parties’ interest to exercise the mutual option."

So, mutual options give both the team and the player the ability to come together and make a decision. This may seem like the most mature option available because it very well may be. Player and club options give control to one side, shutting out the other, but mutual options, like the negotiation of any contract, allow both sides to have a say. For a good example, let's take Adam LaRoche's contract, mentioned above. In LaRoche's deal, the two sides negotiated a mutual option for 2015 worth $15 million, substantially more than the $11 million AAV of the years preceding 2015. This option, like so many others, comes with a buyout clause. If the two sides don't agree to the mutual option, the Nationals must pay LaRoche $2 million in his departure.

Bobby Abreu

So, we've gone through club options, player options, and mutual options. All that's left is the vesting option. Recently the diligent writers at www.mlbtraderumors.com published a piece about vesting options, publishing with it a list of examples in which vesting options were and were not triggered. A vesting option is the same as the other types of options, except that in order to trigger the option, the player must attain some predetermined level of productivity. For example, the Angels gave Bobby Abreu a vesting option for 2012 that would be triggered if Abreu reached at least 433 plate appearances in the 2011 season. If he did not come to the plate 433 times or more the option would be moot, but if he achieved that minimum number of plate appearances he would be an Angel for another season. We see vesting options pop up most often on the contracts of older players or oft-injured players. These conditions cause instability, and a team doesn't want to be "on the hook" for money if a player cannot prove to the team they can perform on the field. For relief pitchers vesting options often involve appearances or games finished, for hitters we see plate appearances used, and for starting pitchers, innings pitched are most commonly used as a barometer. Sometimes vesting options come with clauses that allow a player to decline said option even if the option has vested, but not all incorporate such provisions.

So, now you know everything and more about contract options in Major League Baseball. Maybe for some fans these topics detract from the fun and childlike innocence attached to the game, but for most, it offers another fascinating aspect to the non-playing side of sports. So much of the analytical revolution in Baseball combines on-field play with off-the-field decisions made by MLB front offices. No matter your preference, I hope you've learned something, so that maybe, the next time you hear he details of a contract, you might understand them a little better.

Call to The Pen

2013-02-16T10:12:00.001-08:00

Last season, the Orioles shocked the Baseball world by turning the tables on the usual suspects in the AL East by winning 93 games, nabbing second place in the AL East, and one of the two wild card spots. The O's made the playoffs in 2013, making their way back to the post season for the first time in 1997. After making quick work of the Texas Rangers in the wild card play-in game, the Orioles ran into the Bronx Bombers in the ALDS. The Yankees outlasted the O's, beating them in a decisive game 5 to move on to the League Championship Series.

Since then, the AL East has undergone a make over. The Red Sox ridded themselves of big contracts like Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, as well as distractions like Josh Beckett. The Sox have since replaced that trio with a group of veterans like Shane Victorino, David Ross, Ryan Dempster, Jonny Gomes, Mike Napoli, and Stephen Drew. General Manager Ben Cherington prudently signed no players tied to draft pick compensation, and predominantly went after players considered "sure things" as opposed to big names and thus big risks.

Across the border, Blue Jays made the deal of the offseason, acquiring Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonifacio, Josh Johnson, and Mark Buehrle from the Miami Marlins in exchange for a bus load of prospects. After years of prospect cultivation and development, the Blue Jays decided to use some young talent as currency in order to make a run at the playoffs. The Jays added the cherry on top of the sundae by making a second deal, this one for the reigning NL Cy Young award winner, knuckleballer R.A. Dickey. With this infusion of talent and experience, especially in the rotation, the Blue Jays are prime to make the playoffs for the first time since 1993.

The Rays, that scrappy young club from St. Petersburg, continued to rake in the young, talented, cheap, and team controlled players by trading veteran pitchers James Shields and Wade Davis to Kansas City. In Return the Rays received stud prospect Wil Myers along with pitcher Jake Odorizzi. While this deal didn't compare in size or impact to the dealings of the Blue Jays, the Rays secured one of the top MLB-ready talents in the minors without trading AL Cy Young award winner David Price, who's expensive arbitration years just kicked in. While this move might set the Rays back at first, with prospects like Chris Archer and youngsters like Jeremy Hellickson and Alex Cobb vying for places in the Rays rotation, Tampa looks to remain relevant in 2013 as well as the foreseeable future.

The Yankees offseason involved signing a number of older veteran players to short-term contracts, plugging holes, in order to stay under the luxury tax, but also not fall into the cellar of the AL East. The Yanks brought back Ichiro, Andy Pettitte, and Hiroki Kuroda, while adding veteran Kevin Youkilis to man the hot corner at 3rd. While these moves seem a bit desperate on the surface, the Yankees made shrewd moves that should keep them germane in the AL East in 2013. The only hole in the Yankees roster seems to be behind the plate, but the team has all spring training to figure out their backstop issues.

So, with every team in the AL East realistically eyeing the playoffs for the first time in years, what aspect might separate one from the rest of the pack? Last season, the Orioles used their brilliant bullpen to push them just past the Rays into the playoffs, and it seems as though the relief core may be the key to the east once again. In 2013, the O's bullpen put up a combined 6.4 fWAR, which ranked 3rd in the American League behind only the Royals and the Rays. Orioles relievers made quick work of the final innings of a game not by utilizing the strikeout, but instead by inducing more ground balls than any other AL East pen. In addition, the O's gave out few free passes, ranking second, behind only the Rangers, in BB/9.

Team	K/9	BB/9	LOB%	GB%	FIP	WAR
Rays	9.33	2.88	77.10%	46.40%	3.19	6.7
Orioles	7.49	2.87	78.50%	49.10%	3.68	6.4
Yankees	8.92	3.2	77.60%	44.90%	3.62	5.5
Red Sox	8.31	3.38	74.80%	45.10%	3.91	4.6
Blue Jays	8.58	3.51	74.10%	43.10%	4.21	2.5

The Orioles didn't have the best offense, nor stellar starting pitching, but Buck Showalter's bullpen kept the team in every game, making the Orioles a deadly foe in close games. Unfortunately for Baltimore, their incredible winning percentage in 1-run games and extra inning games came halted in the ALDS in which 4 out of the 5 games played ended with a margin of victory of just 1 run. Given that the Orioles bullpen became their key to success, and the growing parity in the AL East, what have Baltimore's rivals been up to?

David Robertson

The Yankees lost a key part of their 2012 bullpen, righty Raphael Soriano, but they were able to parlay his success into an additional draft pick by offering him a qualifying offer that he didn't accept. Instead, once Soriano signed with his new club, the Washington Nationals, the Yankees picked up a compensatory pick, which turns out to be the 32nd pick in this summers upcoming draft. The Yankees willingly parted with their 2012 bullpen anchor given Soriano's desire for a lucrative multi-year contract, the ability to obtain a draft pick in return, and most importantly knowing that future Hall-Of-Famer Mariano Rivera would return in 2013 to fill the hole left by Soriano. In addition to Rivera's return, the Yankees still have Nate Robertson, the strikeout machine, who has posted a 12.20 K/9, 2.70 FIP, and accumulated 6.0 fWAR since 2009. Between Robertson, Rivera, and a mix of Boone Logan from the left side, the Yankees bullpen should hold up late in games.

Roberto Hernandez

The Rays made some minor changes to their bullpen, but given their recent success, these changes should prove fruitful. Tampa traded ground ball specialist Burk Badenhop to the Brewers, replacing him with Roberto Hernandez, the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona. Carmona, like Badenhop throws from the right side, and more importantly throws a hard sinker that induces a great number of ground balls. Since becoming a regular in the Majors, Hernandez has posted a ridiculous 58.4 ground ball percentage, good enough for a 2.26 GB/FB ratio. Hernandez did most of his previous work from the starting rotation, and while the Rays may ask him to spot start in a pinch, his role will be out of the bullpen where Joe Madden expects him to induce ground ball after ground ball. The Rays also resigned Joel Peralta while retaining the services of All-Star closer Fernando Rodney by picking up the 2013 team option attached to his contract. Add those names to lefty fire baller Jake McGee, and the Rays bullpen looks ready to buttress their young starting pitching for another season.

Koji Uehara

The Red Sox made headlines by signing lots of free agents this offseason, including a few in the bullpen. The Sox signed southpaw, and well traveled, Craig Breslow, now onto his 7th MLB franchise, to a conservative 2-year $6.25 million contract, added former Ranger's righty Koji Uehara for 1-year and $4.25 million, and traded for former Pirates closer Joel Hanrahan. In addition, the Sox will benefit from the return of Andrew Bailey from an injury marred 2012 campaign, especially since Bailey's 2013 will determine how much money the reliever will get paid in his 3rd year of arbitration. Oliver, a projection system created by Hardball Times' Brian Cartwright, projects good numbers from the Red Sox bullpen, especially from Uehara, who I think represents the keystone to success for this relief core. Also, don't forget about Daniel Bard, who many at spring training say is progressing nicely and might fit into the Sox pen around after All-Star break if the team moves a pitcher a the trade deadline.

Name	ERA	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Koji Uehara	2.99	10.15	1.39	2.74
Joel Hanrahan	3.64	9.90	3.93	3.08
Andrew Bailey	3.99	8.25	3.20	3.12
Junichi Tazawa	3.77	8.67	2.89	3.28
Craig Breslow	3.75	7.93	3.32	3.51
Alfredo Aceves	4.35	7.10	3.44	3.86
Andrew Miller	5.17	8.58	6.34	4.10
Total	3.95	8.65	3.50	3.38

The 2013 Blue Jays bullpen looks eerily similar to the 2012 pen that ranked middle of the road in some statistical categories and poor in others amongst AL teams. They coaxed lefty Darren Oliver to return, and remain hopeful that Sergio Santos can overcome shoulder surgery to return to his level of nastiness by June. The Jays put a lot of faith in their starting rotation, stocking it with work horses like R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle, as well as possible ace Josh Johnson. These three starters should lessen the load on the Blue Jays pen, but given Johnson's injury history and Buehrle's age, the Jays may need to call on their relievers in 2013 more often than they expect.

Darren O'Day

How about those Orioles? Did the organization with the golden bullpen do anything to improve on 2012? Instead of adding or subtracting, the Orioles did their best to keep their 2012 bullpen in tact for 2013. The O's avoided arbitration with Jim Johnson and Darren O'Day, two of the most utilized and important parts of their 2012 relief prosperity. The team returns Luis Ayala, Tommy Hunter, lefty Brian Matusz, and Troy Patton, all of whom they hope will continue to perform at a high level. While the O's may not have "upgraded" their bullpen, the team expects to add one if not two highly touted starting pitching prospects in mid-season, Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman. With the addition of these young stars to an already solid starting pitching staff, the Orioles have no need to tinker with a bullpen that already promises to keep men off base, and to induce lots of double plays late in games.

The AL East is a free for all in 2013, with no one team looking like the current favorite. Given that fact, each team has done their best to ensure that their bullpen won't be the one to falter in 2013. Most of a team's success derives from hitting and starting pitching, but with 5 teams so close to each other in talent and projected wins, it may come down to which relief core can hold the lead in the latter third of the game. While we can only attempt to predict which bullpen will be the most valuable in 2013, it is safe to say that the competition for the, most-likely, 2 playoff spots in the AL East should be fierce.

The Newest Tribesman

2013-02-12T10:57:00.000-08:00

Michael Bourn

Yesterday the Indians announced that they had come to an agreement with free agent outfielder Michael Bourn on a 4-year contract worth $48 million, or $12 million AAV. The contract has a vesting option for a 5th year worth $12 million pending Bourn reaches 550 plate appearances in the final year of his contract at which he will be 34 years old. When the offseason began, writers, pundits, and experts ranked Bourn as one of the top free agents. On my own big board of top-50 free agents, I had Bourn ranked as the fourth best free agent behind only Zack Greinke, B.J. Upton, and Josh Hamilton. The Dodgers signed Greinke to a 6-year $159 million deal, Upton got 5 years and $75.25 million from the Braves, while Hamilton inked a 5-year $125 million deal with the Angels. Of the top 4 free agents on my list, Bourn received the fewest years and least amount of money. For more on how Bourn compared to free agent center fielders check out my article from earlier this offseason. For more on Bourn's value, check out this recent Summerpastime article.

Essentially, Bourn is a speedy player. Every positive aspect of his game relies on his wheels. He has a good on-base percentage, but to continue as a dominant leadoff hitter past the age of 30, his walk rate needs to rise. Here's a snapshot look at some of the better leadoff hitters from 2012 and where Bourn ranks:

Name	Team	R	SB	BB%	OBP	fWAR
Mike Trout	Angels	129	49	10.50%	0.399	10
Michael Bourn	Braves	96	42	10.00%	0.348	6.4
Austin Jackson	Tigers	103	12	10.90%	0.377	5.5
Jose Reyes	Marlins	86	40	8.80%	0.347	4.5

So, given the information we know about Bourn, was this deal a success from his position? Going into the offseason Bourn and agent Scott Boras wanted a contract that totaled higher than $100 million with at least 5 guaranteed years. Instead of that mega-deal he signed for less than half that amount of money, but was able to find 4 guaranteed years with the possibility of a 5th. From this we can garner that getting more years was more important to Bourn than getting the highest AAV possible. Prior to Bourn's new contract agreement, many speculated that he might look for a one-year deal, in the hope that he might find better luck next offseason. I think teams in need of outfielders looked at Bourn as an upgrade, a great defender, a threat on the base paths, but not a player built to sustain such qualities by even age 33. Fortunately, free agents willing to take less money have a better chance of finding a deal because it allows teams with less money to become involved in negotiations. The Indians fit that mold perfectly. Jose Reyes received more money and more years, but he signed his contract at a younger age, he switch hits, and has shown more power than Bourn has. So, the answer to the original question is that this contract wasn't a success by Bourn's original standards, but by any realistic set of criterion $12 million AAV is the perfect fit for a player like Michael Bourn.

From the players perspective this is the best available option, and he took it, but what about from the Indians' perspective. In 2012 Cleveland lost 94 games, and the last time the team went to the playoffs was 2007, remember the bugs?

The Indians haven't been trending well of recent, which resulted in the firing of manager Manny Acta, the hiring of Terry Francona, and the release of former big-time players like Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore. The Indians of 2013 won't look anything like the team that stormed to the ALCS in 2007, but given the weaknesses in the American League and particularly the AL Central, and the addition of the 2nd wild card spot, the Indians 2013 season outlook continues to improve.

Since one player cannot turn a 94 loss team into a playoff primed squad, what else have the Indians been up to improve? Chris Antonetti, the GM of the Indians, started his offseason by getting rid of dead weight like Hafner and Sizemore, which allowed him to move on from those well known, but injury hampered, names. Next, Antonetti inserted the Indians into a three-way trade involving the Diamondbacks and the Cincinnati Reds. In exchange for parting with soon-to-be free agent Shin-Soo Choo, the Indians received outfielder Drew Stubbs from the Reds and high-level pitching prospect Trevor Bauer from Arizona. While Bauer is far from a proven commodity, he is young, under team control at a cheap price, and most importantly, loaded with talent and upside. Given the Indians mediocre farm system, Keith Law ranked them 19/30 MLB teams, adding an MLB ready top of the rotation starter like Bauer made the Indians the clear winners of the three-team trade.

Nick Swisher

Next, the Indians made a few minor moves like signing Brett Myers to a 1-year deal as a starter, not a reliever. In addition, Mark Reynolds joined the club to mix in at 1st base and DH. Next the Indians made their biggest splash of the offseason by signing Nick Swisher a 4-year $56 million contract. Swisher has Ohio connections, will make $14 million AAV, and provides a great upgrade in the Indians lineup. With the addition of Bourn, about 32% of the Indians 2013 payroll will go to Swisher and Bourn, but even for a mid-market team, the proportions could be worse. Swisher does every thing the Indians needed, he gets on base, switch hits, has power, and can play both outfield and 1st base. With the addition of Bourn, the Indians have a top of the lineup that could do some serious damage to opposing pitchers, causing them to work harder, throw more pitches, and possibly give up more runs in the process. Given Cleveland's project lineup, 5 starters are projected by PECOTA to have higher .328 OBPs in 2013. Cleveland's new lineup will strikeout more than the average team, but it will also produce more homeruns, a higher on-base percentage, and more stolen bases than it has in the previous 4 seasons.

From a hitting standpoint, Bourn adds run production. With Asdrubal Cabrera, Jason Kipnis, Nick Swisher, Carlos Santana, and Mark Reynolds/Jason Giambi hitting behind Bourn, the Indians and their fans can expect the club to score a lot more runs than they have been accustomed to in recent years. Defensively, the Indians have more options now than before. If Terry Francona, Chris Antonetti, and others want, the team now has the ability to move Drew Stubbs or Michael Brantley for an upgrade elsewhere. On the other hand, a defensive outfield of Brantley, Stubbs, and Bourn would be a vacuum for fly balls.
(2010-2012)

Name	Inn	DRS	UZR	UZR/150
Michael Bourn	3888.2	51	35.3	11.9
Nick Swisher	3201	-5	11.5	4.7
Drew Stubbs	3666	-3	4.8	2
Michael Brantley	2833.2	-10	-12.4	-6.4

Don't be dissuaded by Brantley's poor numbers, he plays a much better left field (8 DRS & 3.4 UZR in 2012) than he does center field. An outfield with Stubbs and Brantley in the corners and Bourn in the middle would have a lot of range, which cuts down on hitters turning doubles in to triples and singles into doubles. Over the course of 162 games, such range could benefit the Indians in a subtle yet vital manner. From the numbers above, Swisher doesn't seem like a bad outfielder, so why relegate him to first base? First, playing a less demanding defensive position might cut down on the possibility of injury. Second, Swisher has average range at 1st base, and has posted a positive DRS (3) since 2010. So, moving Swisher to 1st doesn't hurt in the infield, and it improves the team's overall defense in the outfield. While moving Brantley or Stubbs could help, keeping both might give the Indians the best chance to compete for a playoff spot in 2013.

In Baseball, like all other aspects of life, timing often dictates success or failure. In this case, the timing of the Indians interest in Bourn makes me see this signing as a big win for Cleveland. With spring training approaching and few teams catering to the type of contract Bourn originally wanted, the Indians swept in offered Bourn the security he wanted and snatched him up for a reasonable AAV. While Bourn got the best available deal, the Indians made a smart, savvy, and productive move to improve their club now. Cleveland may not be a hot destination for free agents, but it's considered more highly valued than Kansas City, another AL Central team that improved this winter, albeit through controversial means. This puts Cleveland into the conversation for a playoff spot, a turnaround that 94 loss teams rarely expect. While the two wildcards seem the most likely possibility for Cleveland, I think that the AL West and East are too powerful, and that the best chance the Tribe has of reaching the postseason will be by unexpectedly winning the AL Central. Knocking off the Tigers, who are vastly better than their divisional opponents won't be easy, but given the uncertainty of injuries and other unaccountable factors, the Indians now have a chance. Despite the fact that Bourn rejected a qualifying offer from the Braves, Cleveland won't have to relinquish their first-round pick in the draft as it is protected due to the Indians' abysmal record in 2012. The Indians lost their second-round pick when they signed Swisher, and the acquisition of Bourn causes the team to lose their competitive balance pick, which would have been the 71st overall pick.

The Indians made a great deal here. Most sabermetricians will tell you that Bourn's production will decline in the next few years, and I stand with them, but the Indians are only on the hook for a guaranteed 4 years, and given their lack of other stars, paying Bourn $12 million AAV should be worth it. At the very least, even if the Indians don't make the playoffs in 2013, they should be more exciting to watch, win more games, and thus bring more fans to Progressive Field. On the bright side, Bourn could burn out just around age 34-35, meaning the Indians got the most out of him while they could, another sign that Antonetti made a sly deal. Cleveland got their man, Bourn finally found a team, the rest remains unknown, but that's the fun.

King of The Hill

2013-02-08T08:49:00.001-08:00

Felix Hernandez

Yesterday USA Today reported that the Seattle Mariners and ace pitcher Felix Hernandez have agreed to a 7-year $175 million contact. Felix's previous contract wasn't set to expire for two more seasons, but his new contract doesn't extend on top of those two years, instead it modifies the next two seasons and adds 5 more. The aspect of this news that stands out the most is that Felix Hernandez, at 26 years old, is now the highest paid pitcher of all time. The previous high for AAV for a pitcher was the recently signed Zack Greinke. His contract with the Dodgers was set to pay him $24.5 million annually, but after 2 years of Hernandez's deal, Felix will be receiving $25 million annually.

So, did Felix Hernandez deserve this contract, and if so, why did he sign it, and why did the Mariners offer it? First, Felix deserves to be paid like a top 5 pitcher because his numbers prove it. Felix has played 8 seasons in the Majors, all for the Mariners, coming up as a 19 year old, and immediately began throwing 190+ innings in only his second season in the Majors. Hernandez, like many young ace pitchers, came in throwing in the mid 90's with his fastball, showing sharp breaking balls including a slider with velocities peaking above 90 mph. Comparing heat maps of Hernandez's pitches from early in his career to his most recent seasons shows a move from pitches near the middle of the plate to the corners. Hernandez's does a great job of keeping his pitches low and away to righties and on the inside corner to lefties, the perfect combination for pitching success. This maturity on the mound has shown in King Felix's numbers as well. Due to his improved precision and strategy, Felix's BB/9 has been getting steadily less and less since peaking in 2008. While Hernandez's ground ball percentage has been seeing some attrition, Felix has countered it with an increase in strikeouts while his swing percentage (the total percentage of pitches a batter swings at) has remained constant, showing better control and precisions despite drops in velocity and number of ground balls induced.

Hernandez's statistics have been following the typical age curve for a starting pitcher as constructed by the good people at Fangraphs.com. As you can see, velocity should begin to trend down around age 27, but FIP, BB/9, and K/9 should all remain constant until age 29 or so when the edges begin to fray. This graph is meant to generalize the production of starting pitchers over time, it doesn't take into account that Hernandez, who has huge amounts of talent, may age better than the average or even above-average pitcher. The Mariners weren't completely trusting in Hernandez's ability to age like Greg Maddux, not giving him a 7-year extension, but adding 5 years onto the already guaranteed 2 years from his previous contract. This decision shows that the Mariners understand that even the best pitchers reach stumbling blocks after they turn 31 years old. On the other hand, if there was a pitcher or two I would be counting on performing at a high level will into his thirties, Felix Hernandez is near or at the top of my list. In his career Hernandez has shown an ability to stay healthy and stay on the field. He's thrown over 200 innings 5 of his 8 MLB seasons, from 2008-2012. Hernandez has reaching the disabled list twice in his career, in 2007 and 2008, which isn't unreasonable as his innings work load had just increased dramatically, a change that commonly leads to some arm issues.

Now that I've answered whether Felix Hernandez was worth the money and years in this deal, now let's talk about why King Felix would sign this contract. First, the money is on the table now. Hernandez, like all other athletes know that once their careers in professional sports end their income will fall drastically, so they go for the most money and for financial security whenever they can during their careers. Hernandez had two years remaining on the 5-year $78 million contract he signed in 2010, taking him through his arbitration eligible years. He could have played out those seasons in Seattle and then explored his options, and there would be many, on the free agent market as a 28 year old, but instead Felix resigned with the team that scouting him, drafted him, developed him, and has treated him as well as a team that has won recently can. Seattle has been a team never lacking a franchise player, loved in the city, no matter the Mariners winning percentage. In the 90's the team had Ken Griffey Jr., between 2000 and 2012 it was Ichiro Suzuki, and with this new contract, the torch has officially been passed to Felix Hernandez. Hernandez is loved by the city of Seattle, when he starts at home; Mariners fans in right field count his strikeouts, calling themselves the King's Court. In addition, Seattle, while not New York or Boston, is a fairly metropolitan city, ranking 22nd in population according to the most recent census data.

Another reason for hope in Seattle, and thus another justification for Felix resigning in the Emerald City, is Seattle's incredible group of young talent. ESPN's Keith Law recently ranked Seattle as having the 8th best farm system in the league with a solid core of young starting pitchers like Taijaun Walker, James Paxton, and Danny Hultzen. In addition, they sport a top infield prospect in Nick Franklin, young catching prospect Mike Zunino, and young players already with the big club like Jesus Montero, Michael Saunders, Kyle Seager, and Dustin Ackley. So, maybe the Mariners won't be a winning team this season or even next season, but just around the time Hernandez's AAV goes from $20 to $25 million the Mariners should have the type of team ready to compete for the playoffs. This shows that Hernandez has faith in the Mariners system, and when the face of the franchise shows confidence in the team, the fans won't be far behind.

So, while Felix may have given up a chance to make maybe more money in a bigger city like Boston or Chicago, and might have lessened his chances of winning a World Sereis, there were numerous solid justifications for resigning with the Mariners. So, the only question left to answer is the simplest, why the Mariners would offer Felix a contract of this length and magnitude. The Mariners aren't a big time franchise, but the team has never had a problem spending money on free agents, a la Chone Figgins. In addition, Hernandez will now make up 20% or more of Seattles overall payroll. We've recently seen how big contracts can still force the hands of the richest teams as with the Alex Rodriguez situation with the Yankees. The Mariners may be extending a lot of money to Felix, but as we've already proven, he's worth the money. The Mariners have most of their future success tied up in youth, and you is inexpensive. This paradigm is conducive to having a large portion of the payroll going to one or two players because young players are cheap. Signing Hernandez allows the Mariners to now change their marketing strategy to make King Felix a brand, a name that every citizen of Seattle knows. Given Seattles solid history of rabid fandom and passion for the Mariners, the team will have little trouble anointing Felix Hernandez the next Sultan of Seattle.

Justin Verlander

So, this deal looks good, it benefits the player, the team, and the fans, but what does it mean for the rest of the league? Baseball is a business and in Hernandez's contract changes the landscape of the market just like Zack Greinke's did before this and Cole Hamel's deal did before that. Two of the top 3 pitchers in the league have contracts ending in two years, and without a doubt King Felix's new deal will affect both of their next contracts. Clayton Kershaw, currently 24 years old, and Justin Verlander, currently 29 years old. Verlander has been the best pitcher in Baseball since 2009; he won an MVP and Cy Young award with the Tigers, and has brought them to two World Series. He may get similar AAV to Felix Hernandez, in fact he may get a little more, but he won't get a 7-year deal. At his age a 5-year contract would be the most I would go.

Name	Team	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA	FIP	WAR
Justin Verlander	Tigers	953.2	9.22	2.37	0.73	2.95	2.93	28.6
Felix Hernandez	Mariners	954	8.43	2.49	0.61	2.81	3.03	24.2
Zack Greinke	- - -	833.1	8.9	2.21	0.71	3.37	2.93	23.5
Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	836.1	9.41	3.11	0.55	2.6	2.87	20.8

Clayton Kershaw

As for Kershaw, Hernandez's contract impacts him greatly. If Kershaw wants an extension now, he could get a deal similar to Hernandez due to his youth and his already stellar career. On the other hand, if Kershaw plays through his current deal becomes a free agent at age 26, Kershaw could sign a contract of similar length to Hernandez but for even more AAV. That would seem like the most lucrative path for Kershaw, but if the native Texan wants to stay with the Dodgers, and like Jared Weaver with the Angels, not want to deal with contract speculation, he could sign an extension now and still get a second huge deal around his age 30 season. Overall, the Dodgers have a lot of money, holes burning in their pockets, and so one way or the other, Kershaw will make a lot of money, most likely in Los Angeles.

So, while $175 million sounds like a huge amount of money, and it is, we now see that the money is justified, for all parties involved. Felix Hernandez and the Seattle Mariners now go hand-in-hand; Felix represents the city, similar to the Mariners greats before him. In 2011 he won the AL Cy Young award, in 2012 he threw a perfect game, now he's the highest paid pitcher of all time, and, as all Mariners fans hope, he will be a World Champion down the road. If there was ever a more perfect road to Cooperstown, I haven't heard of it yet. Now comes the hard part, everything just has to work out.

Who Get's The Big Fish?

2013-02-07T09:40:00.003-08:00

Prince Fielder

Baseball fans rejoice. We've almost made of through the long, difficult, and trying winter with little to no live Baseball to watch. Free agency merely gives the most dedicated and starving Baseball fan a bit of respite, but it only satisfies us enough to bridge the gap of the offseason until Spring Training facilities open and Baseball is officially deemed "open for business". 4 days remain until pitchers and catcher's report to either Florida or Arizona, and another few weeks until their teammates join them. While most players have had their plane reservations booked for weeks, some players' destinations continue to remain unknown. Free agency doesn't stop just because Baseball fans, players, coaches, and executives can see the Promised Land from across the Jordan River. No, instead agents, front offices, and owners work diligently to find the last missing piece to the puzzle.

Recently the Oakland Athletics deal Chris Carter, Brad Peacock, and Max Stassi to the Astros in exchange for Jed Lowrie an a bullpen pitcher. So, not only does Free Agency continue up to the start of the season, but team's will always be looking to improve by exchange. While predicting a trade is virtually impossible without, and sometimes even with inside information, speculating on the possible destinations for the remaining free agents becomes more and more fascinating every minute we move closer and closer to the promised land that is Opening Day.

Michael Bourn:

Michael Bourn

Since the October, numerous pundits have predicted that Bourn would be the Prince Fielder of the 2013 offseason. Last year, Fielder, one of the top 3 free agents of 2012, remained unsigned until January 26th, when the Detroit Tigers and Dave Dombrowski moved their chips, $214 million worth to be exact, into the pot. The Tigers landed Fielder, which not only helped Miguel Cabrera become the first player to win the Triple Crown since 1967, but made Detroit a power house team. The Tigers reached the World Series, and while they lost, few Baseball people would bash that massive contract due to Fielder's predicted value, current value, and the huge push he gave the franchise as a whole.

Is Michael Bourn Prince Fielder? No, I think we can all categorically say the two are quite different. Fielder is a bull of a man with incredible power to all fields while Bourn is a small scrappy contact hitter with lightning fast speed. Power doesn't diminish into a player's 30's as quickly as speed does, making teams even more wary in the face of a long-term high price tag deal with Bourn. In addition, the market this offseason was stocked with talented outfielders making negotiations for a contract difficult, and causing teams to use prospect instead of cash to attain outfield help. The Nationals traded for Denard Span, the Phillies for Ben Revere, and the Braves for Justin Upton. So, where does that leave Michael Bourn? Bourn is a player completely built around his speed and ability to get on base. In addition he brings superb defense in the outfield, closing on balls with great speed, combined with a very good first step, solid leaping ability, and an above average arm.

	OBP	SB	SB %	DRS	UZR
2009	0.354	61	83.5%	11	9.9
2010	0.341	52	81.3%	30	19.4
2011	0.349	61	81.3%	-3	-6.4
2012	0.348	42	76.4%	24	22.4

As you can see from this chart, Bourn gets on base with regularity, consistently putting up numbers above the league average (.315 in 2012). Bourn recently turned 30 years old, generally a harbinger of an attrition of production, which accelerates if built on speed rather than power.

It's possible that Bourn could still attain the type of contract that he and mega agent Scott Boras wanted in November, something in the neighborhood of 5+ seasons and $100 million, that possibility dwindles every second we get closer to Spring Training. More reasonable figures being reported recently have put Bourn in a 3-year deal with an AAV of $15 million or so. Most sabermetricians and pundits would tell you that, for example, a contract of 3-years $46 million with a vesting option for a 4th year that would be worth $16 Million, and a buyout of $3 million would be reasonable to acquire Michael Bourn. So, in essence, the player, in this case Bourn, overvalued himself in a saturated market, and now that there is a definite time frame established, the player is adapting to the market in order to come to a conclusion. This is market economics, it's one reason of having no salary cap enhances Baseball's image as opposed to making the players look greedy and overpaid. Bourn turned down the Braves' qualifying offer in November, making him less appealing to teams that would be forced to lose a draft pick as part of acquiring the speedy outfielder. It also makes teams more likely to want to negotiate a multi-year deal with Bourn, so as to get more out of him, making up for the future of a lost 1st-round draft pick. So, while some reports have team's looking to sign Bourn to a 1-year deal, I don't see it as likely unless said team wouldn't be forced to give up a draft pick.

Team's that could still be fits for Bourn include the New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers, Baltimore Orioles, and Seattle Mariners. The Mets have no legitimate outfielders currently on the roster. While the team has worked hard to build up depth in the infield and starting rotation, the outfield has been untended to, unless you count Jason Bay, but that attempt officially failed when the Mets dropped Bay from their roster. While Bourn fits a big need for the Mets, he would likely not boost them into a playoff spot, so spending a high AAV even for 2-3 seasons may not be worth it for Sandy Alderson and his bunch. There is still a slight possibility the Mets will be allowed to retain their first round pick even if they were to ink Bourn to a deal, but MLB has yet to rule on the situation. Most likely, the Mets would have to forfeit that pick, making them even less likely to go after Bourn.

The Phillies have many more reasons to like Bourn. Ruben Amaro finds himself with a high payroll, older team, and 2 platoons at the corner outfield spot. He also sees a division that just got tougher, due to recent acquisitions made by the Nationals and Braves, and a team on the cusp of the playoffs in the Phillies. The Phillies already have a leadoff type hitter in Ben Revere, as well as an aging but still viable Jimmy Rollins, so, you might be asking yourself, why the Phillies would want another speedy player. Adding Bourn would give the Phillies the "2003 Juan Pierre/Luis Castillo" look at the top of their lineup, essentially providing the muscle in the lineup with more and more opportunities to hit with runners on base and in scoring position. In addition, Bourn's defense would make playing inept defenders like Delmon Young and Darin Ruf in the outfield. Bourn came up with the Phillies, knows the organization well and would be a valuable asset to the Phillies. The question all comes down to money. If Ruben Amaro is willing to pay a higher AAV in order to get Bourn to agree to a shorter deal, it would be worth signing him, giving up their first round pick, but if Bourn demands more than 3 years, the Phillies should continue to use restraint.

The Rangers lost Josh Hamilton this offseason to rival LA. Hamilton may not have played much longer in centerfield had he stayed in Texas, meaning that the team was always willing to go with the combination of Craig Gentry and Leonys Martin in centerfield. If Jon Daniels signed Bourn, he would most likely play the majority in center field in 2013, and even 2014, but moved to a corner spot not long after the All-Star break in 2014. Bourn doesn't have power, so he won't benefit from Arlington's home run tendencies, but the combination of Bourn, Elvis Andrus and, eventually Jurickson Profar in the 9-1-2 spots would be incredibly difficult to stop, and would neutralize ground ball innings eaters like the ones recently signed by the Angels. The Rangers have money to spend, and given the state of their farm system, losing a draft pick wouldn't cause too much strife. In the end here, it comes down to the price tag. If Bourn is willing to lessen some standards the Rangers could be on board, but otherwise I wouldn't bet on Daniels blinking first.

The Orioles have the ability to benefit greatly from an acquisition involving Michael Bourn. While the Orioles already have a talented young center fielder in Adam Jones, Bourn would buttress Baltimore's defensive outfield by playing in right, moving Nick Markakis to platoon with Nolan Reimold in left field. For a team many think will regress in 2013, adding Bourn could keep them in contention for longer, possibly long enough to return to the playoffs. Fangraphs recently released the Steamer projections for 2013. An outfield with Bourn, Jones, and a platoon of Markakis and Reimold is project to look like this:

	HR	SB	wOBA
Bourn	6	35	0.309
Jones	28	9	0.347
Markakis	17	4	0.351
Reimold	16	6	0.332
Total	67	54	0.335

While the platoon in left would cause both Markakis' and Reimold's numbers to decrease a little due to less playing time, the DH spot allows for manager Buck Showalter to keep them in the lineup even if they don't have a spot in the field. The combination of a full year in the majors for Manny Machado, the prospect of Dylan Bundy coming up to the big club mid-season, and the addition of Bourn to the outfield would be the perfect counter punch to the Rays' trade for Will Myers, and Red Sox flurry of signings, and the Blue Jays Miami buying extravaganza.

The Mariners are a fit for Bourn because they are without a good lineup, and Bourn might put some more fans butts in seats. GM Jack Zduriencik had made some questionable decisions of recent, but no one would blame him for trying to sign Bourn. Seattle can spend some money, and Bourn might provide the young Mariners hitters with a runner on base more often when they hit. Bourn might only consider a long-term deal with the Mariners since so much of their success is tied up in their core young players. The Mariners aren't winning anything in 2013 with or without Bourn, so signing him all comes down to pressure from ownership, and to a much lesser extent to look active and not portray an air of dejection.

Kyle Lohse:

Kyle Lohse

Then there's Kyle Lohse. Lohse is the best starting pitcher left on the market, but unlike Bourn, many predicted Lohse would have trouble finding a team. For more on why teams might be wary to sign Lohse read Glenn DuPaul's editorial on the issue here. Lohse looks to regress heavily in 2013, is asking for a hefty sized AAV, and will cost the team that signs him a draft pick having turned down the Cardinals qualifying offer. He's a solid pitcher, with a solid track record, but he's already undergone serious arm surgery in his career, is in his 30's, and doesn't have a power arm. Lohse constitutes the definition of a player who is the "last piece" to a team. Raphael Soriano, recently signed by the Nats constituted he same. Both are expensive cars that a guy would never buy until he's older, rich, and already enjoying life. He's the "cherry on top", not the foundational ice cream. So, where could he land?

According to multiple projections systems, Lohse's 2013 numbers should look in the neighborhood of these numbers:

	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA	FIP
2013	194	5.67	2.04	0.91	3.85	3.86

While those numbers may not be worth $10 million AAV and the loss of a draft pick, to a playoff team hoping to put themselves in the preseason conversation of World Series possibility, Lohse could very well be worth it. Teams like that include the Rangers and Cardinals with the Pirates and Brewers also in the conversation.

The Rangers are a team that many thought would be active this offseason, but have continued to lie in wait until they pounce. Still, Lohse could make sense for the Rangers. Signing Lohse would allow the team to trade prospect Martin Perez, a player many teams would be interested in acquiring. If the Rangers could use Perez to get an outfielder like Dexter Fowler, or with a better set of prospects, Carlos Gonzalez, the Rangers could move back into a better position in the AL West. Lohse might not fair incredibly well in Arlington, but half a team's games are played on the road, and Lohse would be the 4th starter, a veteran presence, but not an ace.

The Cardinals recently found out that they have lost Chris Carpenter for the season, and he still may retire. The cardinals have the best farm system in the Majors, and have no need to fill Carp's spot with a free agent. Trevor Rosenthal, Joe Kelly, Shelby Miller, and Lance Lynn would compete for the 4th and 5th spots with Carpenter gone. In addition, Jaime Garcia may not be ready for Opening Day, so those four pitchers could compete for 3 Opening Day rotation slots. The Cardinals have a lot of internal and cheap options, but re-signing Lohse could work for them. Lohse liked playing in St. Louis, which most consider to be a desirable place to play. The Cardinals don't need him, but adding Lohse could better their odds of winning the NL Central.

The Pirates don't need Kyle Lohse, but his addition could prove fruitful. The Pirates have been on the cusp of making the playoffs for the last 2 seasons. They have the talent to play like a playoff team for 3/4 of the season, but not all of it, causing the Buccos to be on the outside looking in in October. With Gerrit Cole expected to make his debut this season, and the possible addition of Lohse, the Pirates could put themselves squarely ahead of the Brewers and right in the wheelhouse of the Reds/Cardinals for 2013 and more likely 2014. The Pirates probably don't want to increase payroll, especially after recently adding Francisco Liriano and Jonathan Sanchez, but If Neal Huntington wanted to take a risk it might be worth it here. I wouldn't count on this happening, but it is good to see the Buccos in a position to possibly win something.

The Brewers recently lost Cory Hart, due to injury, for the first part of the 2013 season. They have almost the least amount of pitching depth in the starting rotation of any NL team, and they have had a quiet offseason. In addition, the team is in danger of falling into 4th in the Central this season, and that is without the awful Astros to make them look better. Lohse would provide them with someone to go behind Yovani Gallardo, but it would be a patch up job with potential issues all over the place. Doug Melvin isn't a GM to sign a guy just to sign him; the Brewers only go after Lohse if they make an ancillary move. This team needs their 1st round draft pick too much to make a serious contract to Kyle Lohse.

Both Bourn and Lohse come with more risk attached to them than any other free agent, making GM's circumspect when evaluating them as possible acquisitions. Boras found Prince Fielder $200+ million on January 26th, but neither Bourn nor Lohse have the value that Prince Fielder did. Given their lesser status, I predict Bourn to sign within the next next 2 weeks at 3-4 years and a contract between $50-65 million. Lohse a few days after Bourn for 3 years and $24 million. Recently I've been having an inner conflict between my hear and my brain concerning free agent signings, so to appease both body parts I'll report both outcomes. My brain says Bourn goes to Texas while my heart says he fits best in Baltimore. As for Mr. Lohse, my brain says the Cardinals re-sign him, but my heart thinks he fits best in Pittsburgh. These are the two top players left on the market, they represent the scraps of Baseball we continue to cling to until very soon, Baseball officially returns, and all Baseball fans can emerge from their torpor. Opening Day is coming; we just have to have a little more patience.

Taming the Wild

2013-01-26T14:34:00.000-08:00

George Kottaras

Today the Kansas City Royals announced that they had claimed catcher George Kottaras off of waivers. Kottaras isn't a household name, but the move made me look into whether this was a good fit, or whether the Royals had another motive. Kottaras has played at least part-time in the Majors since 2009, playing in a career high 85 games last season. In his limited role, Kottaras has faced mostly right-handed pitching. He bats from the left-side, and has the typical platoon splits of a hitter with tools at the plate, but who has difficulty hitting MLB breaking balls off of lefties. Kottaras began the 2012 season in Milwaukee, but half way through the season, the Brewers traded him to the Oakland Athletics. The Athletics recently participated in a three-way trade that sent Michael Morse to Seattle and John Jaso to Oakland. Jaso's value has been written about extensively, but lost in that deal was Kottaras.

Kottaras is an average hitter, with a career wOBA of .322. On the other hand, over the last two seasons, as Kottaras has played more games, his OPS+ has been above average, 107 in 2011 and 108 in 2012. He hasn't hit many home runs, but his isolated power split is vast. Kottaras has posted a .209 ISO against right-handed pitching but only a .129 ISO vs. lefties. While this fact isn't dissimilar from many left-handed hitters, a closer look using pitch F/X data shows that Kottaras has an affinity to hit pitches in the upper portion of the strike zone against right-handed pitching for power. In fact, despite the adage that left-handed hitters are good low-ball hitters, Kottaras seems to be a better hitter against balls that are up in the strike zone against both righties and lefties. Overall, Kottaras looks like a hitter who is beginning to figure some things out at the plate. He is able to get on base against both righties and lefties, but shows impressive power numbers against only righties. This combination is enough to get him a back-up catching job, but I think something else caused the Royals to snag the former Athletic off of waivers.

Kottaras isn't a great defensive catcher, posting a slightly negative defensive rating according to Fangraphs in 2012. In fact, he has never posting a positive defensive rating. Fangraphs calculates their defensive for catchers based on two major statistics, rSB and RPP, with rSB accounting for a catcher's need to throw out base runners well and RPP accounting for a catcher's ability to block balls in the dirt. Teams that have pitchers who don't have good pick-off moves or are slow to the plate need catchers with good rSB's in order to counteract their pitchers' deficiencies. If a team's pitching staff has pitchers with erratic control and propensities for throwing breaking balls with lots of movement, said team would want a catcher with good RPP numbers. While Kottaras hasn't posted very good rSB numbers, his RPP numbers have been positive since 2010. In fact, since 2010, Kottaras ranks 13th amongst all MLB catchers in RPP, ahead of names like Jonathan Lucroy, John Buck, and Kurt Suzuki, and just behind Ivan Rodriguez, Buster Posey, and Jason Kendall. Given these numbers, a team whose pitchers have a proclivity for being wild would benefit far more from Kottaras's services as opposed to a pitching staff with pinpoint control.

Given Kottaras' talents for blocking balls in the dirt, it stands to reason that the Brewers wouldn't want to let him leave, especially since the Brewers' pitching staff was 9th in the league in wild pitches in 2012 and 3rd in the league in wild pitches since 2010. On the other hand, in 2012, both other catchers on the Brewers' roster, Jonathan Lucroy and Martin Maldonado also posted positive RPP's, making Kottaras expendable, but not worthless. In fact, it's that value that the Kansas City Royals may have picked up on. This offseason, the Royals made a significant trade, acquiring Wade Davis and James Shields from the Rays in exchange for a dynamic package of prospects. Both Davis and Shields will make immediate impacts, Shields as their ace pitcher, and Davis as either a back of the rotation starter or right-handed reliever out of the pen. In addition, the Royals also added righty Ervin Santana to their rotation. Santana is a strikeout pitcher with a hard fastball and knee-buckling slider that often ends up in the dirt. Shields and Santana both ranked in the 21 pitchers in the Majors since 2010 in wild pitches, and since 2008 Shields, Santana, and fellow Royals pitcher Luke Hochevar have ranked in the top 30 in wild pitches. Overall, it seems as the Royals would disproportionately benefit from a catcher who is above average at blocking balls in the dirt, especially since if Kansas City is going to make the playoffs for the first time since 1985 every positive addition, no matter how small, will make a difference.

Salvador Perez

Kansas City now has a dynamic duo of backstops, with both Kottaras and young stud Salvador Perez on the roster. Perez is the better hitter of the two, and has better overall defensive numbers. In fact, Perez excels defensively in areas at which Kottaras is lacking, and visa versa. Perez has a very strong arm, and very good mechanics behind the plate, but is just below average in blocking balls in the dirt. Since overall defensive ratings for catchers weight throwing out base runners as more important than blocking balls in the dirt, Perez looks like the better of the two, but by adding Kottaras into the mix, it gives the Royals affordable and talented defense behind the plate. Kottaras also adds some more veteran experience, a left-handed bat with good power, and allows the Royals not to stress Perez too much without giving up too much production. Look to see Kottaras play predominantly against right-handed pitching, but more importantly, look for him to catch when James Shields and Ervin Santana take the mound. I'm in no way saying that it is absolute, especially given that Salvador Perez's RPP numbers aren't awful, and given his age, there is the possibility that his RPP numbers can improve. For the time being, the Royals see Kottaras' skills as solid value added, especially since his 2013 salary is only $1 million and he isn't a free agent until the 2016 season.

Don't overlook signings or pickups like this one. Numerous other teams could have benefited from even 80 games worth of George Kottaras. One specific team that comes to mind is the Chicago White Sox. White Sox pitchers have thrown the 3rd most wild pitches in the Majors since 2010, and the team recently lost veteran catcher A.J. Pierzynski to free agency. Moreover, given Pierzynski's absence, the team is considering using youngster Tyler Flowers as their dominant catcher in 2013. Adding a more veteran left-handed hitting catcher who can handle erratic pitching would seem prudent. The White Sox play in the same division as the Royals, the Sox finished one spot ahead of KC in 2012, and they haven't undergone nearly as many positive renovations to their roster as the Royals have done. So, picking up Kottaras not only benefits the Royals directly, but also indirectly benefits them by not allowing the White Sox to pick him up. Who's to say the Sox would have picked up Kottaras, but he does fit their team incredibly well. Look for pitchers like James Shields and Ervin Santana to have slightly better strikeout numbers than they did in 2012. Some of that will be due to moving to a less talented division, but some may also come from their ability to throw any pitcher to get a hitter out without worrying that the ball may get away from their catcher. While trading for Shields and Santana were sexier and more productive moves, both come with risks, which the Royals are lessening by adding Kottaras to the mix. It's possible that the Royals will make the playoffs for the first time since the 1980's in 2013, but the odds are against them, so it's a good thing that George Kottaras, the forgotten catcher, now dons a royal and white uniform.

Upton, Upton and Away

2013-01-24T15:25:00.000-08:00

Justin Upton

Since June 2012, www.mlbtraderumors.com has put out 30+ articles with the words Justin Upton rumors in the title. This isn't just a blind fasciation with a specific player; the Diamondbacks have done everything but see Upton on the plane out of Phoenix. Arizona hasn't offered Upton an extension or publicly supported him; instead the team has shopped him all over the league hoping to get the best package in return. Upton still has three affordable years left on his current contract, is the ripe young age of 25 years old, and has compiled 17.1 fWins in his 6 MLB seasons, a combination usually destined for stardom. Upton has numerous skills and few deficiencies, and he's entering the most productive years of his career, and now he has a new team.

Justin Upton the Player:

Who is Justin Upton? Over the last few months we've taken to see him as a commodity, and not a player. Maybe familiarizing ourselves with him will give us greater insight into the Diamondbacks' decision to trade him and the Braves' desire to acquire him.

First of all, Upton is 6 foot 2 inches tall and weighs 205 pounds, a prototypical athlete's build. This is something a scout would say, but many well skilled in analytics would say that it isn't indicative of success. Both the scout and the numbers guy are correct. Not all athletic players are great and not all great players are athletic, but players with the combination of athleticism and the numbers to back it up generally make cases for Cooperstown. Upton's build aids in his ability to stay healthy and his raw combination of speed, power, and agility.

Offensively, Upton has had ups and downs in his career, but never a bad season, so we can safely assume that he won't drop off, and that the numbers we have are reliable. From a power hitting perspective, Upton fits the bill as a middle-of-the-order hitter. While Upton's home run totals have ranged from 17 to 31, he has a total of 2 more home runs in his career than fellow young talented outfielder Adam Jones, signifying a high probability that he will continue to pump out somewhere between 20 and 30 home runs per season for the duration of his prime years.

	HR	ISO	SLG
2007	2	0.143	0.364
2008	15	0.213	0.463
2009	26	0.232	0.532
2010	17	0.17	0.442
2011	31	0.24	0.529
2012	17	0.15	0.43

Upton is a right-handed batter, meaning he might have a problem with right-handed pitching, but as you can see from his platoon splits, Upton hits both righty and lefty pitchers fairly equally.

PLATOON	AVG	OBP	SLG	TAv
vs L (Multi)	0.278	0.387	0.480	0.294
vs R (Multi)	0.283	0.349	0.460	0.285
Split (Multi)	0.005	-0.038	-0.02	-0.009

Upton's platoon split numbers show an ability to hit righties and lefties, but it also shows a lack of patience or an inability to see right-handed pitching as opposed to left-handed pitching well. Looking at his BB/K ratio splits, 1.04 vs. LHP and 0.37 vs. RHP, further proves this point. So, Upton goes from being a good hitter against righties to a very good hitter against lefties, typical for right-handed hitters.

Defensively, Upton is suited for his position, corner outfield. Using defensive runs saved and ultimate zone rating, it's fairly obvious that Upton is just above average in right field, to the point that he is a defensive asset in comparison to an average right fielder. Given that the Braves have stud right fielder Jason Heyward patrolling right field, Upton will be moved to left-field, a least demanding outfield position, where his defensive numbers will most-likely improve even more. While defense does begin a descent as players age, Upton is only 25, so moving him to left field won't allow any defensive deficiencies to pop up for the near future.

Upton also presents as an above average baserunner. He has posted a positive, if not above average UBR in each of his 6 seasons in the league, showing both speed and base running acumen.

2007	BsR
2008	1.1
2009	1.5
2010	3.5
2011	0.7
2012	4.5

Justin Upton the Acquisition:

Martin Prado

So, it turns out to be true, Justin Upton is worth the price of a trade, but what about this specific deal with the Braves? The Braves sent 3B/OF Martin Prado, RHP Randall Delgado, SS Nick Ahmed, RHP Zeke Spruill, and 1B/3B and Brandon Drury. Prado has been a great player, in that he is above average defensively at third base, left field, and previously at 2nd base, while posting career .341 wOBA, 111 wRC+, and .345 OBP. Prado makes his living by swinging. He doesn't walk often, career 7.0 BB%, swings a lot, career 90.1 contact percentage, but still produces 11% more offense than a replacement level player.

Randall Delgado is the swing player in this deal. I say "swing player" because Delgado is on the cusp of becoming a full-time Major League pitcher. Delgado has a great deal of talent and upside given the impressive comments from scouts, but he hasn't replicated his Minor League success in the big leagues just yet. Delgado is 23, so if he is destined to blossom, it should happen within the next 3 seasons. He's cheap, under team control, and has a mid-90's fastball, sinker/change up combination that induces ground balls. On the other hand, he also has issues with his control, posting a 3.95 BB/9 rate in his career. In addition to his high walk rate, Delgado, despite his power four-seamer, posted a 50.2 GB% last season showing a pitcher who isn't going to post high strikeout numbers, but has a power sinker that has serious movement. That serious movement probably causes some of his wildness, so if Diamondbacks pitching coach Charles Nagy can work on keeping Delgado calm on the mound, and confident in his abilities, his walk numbers should come down a bit as the velocity on his fastball comes down. Fausto Carmona went through a similar situation when pitching in Cleveland.

As for the other three players in this deal, all three are prospects. Nick Ahmed is a polished shortstop that does everything well, but isn't exceptional in any category. He plays solid defense, has good speed, makes good contact, but doesn't project as more than a replacement level shortstop. Given most teams' lack of depth in up-the-middle position prospects, Ahmed becomes more valuable than his numbers/skills indicate. Look for the Diamondbacks to either move Ahmed for another pitcher, the rumor mill seems to think the Tigers' Rick Porcello, or to keep him to compete with Didi Gregorius as the future shortstop in Arizona. Spruill is an interesting prospect. He's similar to Delgado, but has no MLB experience under his belt. He's a righty with speed and multiple useable pitches, and has received positive scouting reports noting him as a future #3 type starter. This gives the Diamondbacks 4 young near MLB-ready or MLB-ready pitchers, one more than they had going into the offseason. While Trevor Bauer has the possibility to be a top-15 starting pitcher in the Majors for the next 10 years, Spruill isn't too far off, and he represents only 1/5 of the package the Dbacks received for Upton.

Who Got the Best Deal:

GM Frank Wren

In this case, I'm going to say that it's a tie. In the short term, the Braves won. In fact, I think the Braves won this deal for the next 3 seasons. Once Upton's current contract expires and he is looking at a contract worth approximately $150 million, the Braves won't be able to afford him. Sure, his brother B.J. is signed on with Atlanta for 5 seasons, but that won't be enough to persuade brother Justin from leaving for the big money. Upton is a stud, but not a star. Stardom comes with consistency, so when Justin Upton shows true consistency, we can dub him a star, but for now he is just a stud. On the other hand, I would say fellow Braves outfielders Jason Heyward and B.J. Upton are also studs. The Braves look like they traded a lot for Upton, but given his age, and previous experience, Justin is worth it. Oh, and there's the added bonus that the Diamondbacks also sent third baseman Chris Johnson to Atlanta. This is a downgrade from Prado, but when you add Johnson's projected numbers to Upton's projections, then subtract Prado's projections, the Braves have made a serious offensive upgrade. The Braves had to make a move like this if they wanted to have a chance to win the NL East since the Nationals, at least on paper, look to be the favorites to win the east for a second consecutive season.

Braves Grade: A- (The Braves should continue to draft well, so replenishing the farm system won't be difficult. Given that they made a significant upgrade at a time when they had to in order to compete for the playoffs, makes me like this trade a lot.)

GM Kevin Towers

The Diamondbacks might regret this move for a season or two, but in the long run I expect them to be declared the winners of this deal. Every player they acquired other than Martin Prado is under team control at a cheap price for a minimum of 5 years. That being said, the Diamondbacks are reportedly looking to finalize a contract extension with Prado. In addition, if Kevin Towers moves Ahmed and another piece to Detroit for Rick Porcello, the Diamondbacks will have incredible pitching and outfield depth as well as great young hitters at catcher, 2nd base, and 1st base. The Diamondbacks are a middle market team, meaning they aren't usually blessed with options, yet this franchise is full of them. Towers has given himself flexibility where it counts. Outfielders can switch positions and lend themselves easily to platoon splitting while pitchers are oft-injured, so having a stock piling of players at both positions gives the Diamondbacks enough backup options to keep them contending with the newly strengthen NL West for years to come. The one possible move that some say will happen and some say shouldn't is a trade of Jason Kubel. Kubel provides a great power bat against right-handed pitching as well as a propensity to hit lots of home runs and doubles in the big alleys at Chase Field. In my opinion, the Diamondbacks should keep Kubel, since even the acquisition of Martin Prado doesn't make up for the offense lost with Upton's relocation.

Diamondbacks Grade: A (They have everything they want, and more importantly, the options to further improve. If Upton becomes the next Hank Aaron Towers will be pissed, but this trade allows the Dbacks to compete in 2013 as well as 2014-2018.

My Grade: A

Patience

2013-01-18T12:11:00.000-08:00

Chris Perez

Today, the Cleveland Indians announced that they had avoided arbitration with closer Chris Perez, settling on a 1-year $7.3 million contract. This was Perez's second year of arbitration, having qualified as a "super 2" player. MLB players with 3 years of service in the big leagues become eligible for arbitration. Arbitration lasts for 3 seasons, unless the player in question has almost three years of service (say 2 year 200 days) at the end of a season. In this case, MLB awards them "super 2" status, which allows the player to be eligible for arbitration for 4 years instead of the usual 3. Some teams have tried to use this to keep young players under team control for extra time, but the league recently changed the necessary dates of service time to make it more difficult for teams to exploit the apparent loophole.

Perez, a right-handed bullpen pitcher has served as the Indians closer since 2010. Ever since conforming Perez to the ninth inning role combined with his "super 2" status, has made Perez ever-increasingly expensive. Relievers are overvalued in the current MLB market; sometimes more often by arbitrators who weight saves as more important than true markers of success for bullpen pitchers. This combination has led to Perez's new 1-year contract of $7.3 million, which equates to about 1.33 fWins. Perez is young, and entering what can be the most fruitful years of a pitcher's career, meaning that he should be able to pitch up to, or at least close to, his annual average value. Since becoming the closer, Perez has accrued 1.6 fWins in 3 seasons for an average Fwins/season of 0.5 fWins. 0.5 Fwins is worth only $2.75 million, which is 38% of what he will be paid this year. Well, if it's so obvious that Perez won't be worth his 2013 contract based on his past performance, so is he set to improve to the point that he will?

As you can see from the graph to the left, Perez's strikeout numbers have fluctuated ending in a K/9 that ranked 51st amongst all 2012 qualified relievers. On a different note, Perez has consistently lowered his BB/9 numbers to end the season 39th amongst all relief pitchers. Essentially, Perez has been a decent bullpen pitcher, one that has improved in some areas, but not enough to make him one of the 20 best relief pitchers in Baseball. His numbers might cause some to wonder why he has been dubbed as the pitcher to throw in supposedly the most crucial situation for the Indians late in games. Maybe if he performed exceptionally well in the clutch, it might justify his AAV as well as his standing in the Cleveland bullpen. Unfortunately for Perez, his WPA/LI, which measures how well a player performs in high leverage situations in comparison to an average leverage situation, and Perez hasn't performed exceptionally well. His WPA/LI has been below 1.0 every year of his career, not a good sign, seeing as the top echelon of relievers (30 best), has a WPA/LI over 1.0 with names like Rodney, Chapman, and Kimbrel all hovering around 2.0 or greater WPA/LI.

Given that we have now proven that Perez's $7.3 million salary is quite inflated, even assuming some improvement, the next question to ask is why have the Indians not considered trading Perez. The Indians, while improving their status this offseason, haven't made significant enough improvements to put them in the discussion for possible playoff team. This fact only adds to my confusion as to why Indians GM Chris Antonetti didn't make a deal to move Perez before coming to a 1-year deal. Now, it is completely possible that the Indians decide to trade Perez now, after setting a definite price tag to him, but that possibility is logically outweighed by the chance that that the Indians go into 2013 with Perez in their bullpen. Given Perez's soft numbers, it's possible that Antonetti wants to wait and see if Perez's stock rises before flipping him so as to receive the best possible package in return.

League

Hanrahan

According to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, as of January 6th, the Indians were still considering trade offers for Perez, but wouldn't budge unless they could receive a similar package to the one the team swindled for outfielder Shin-Soo Choo. Choo brought back outfielder Drew Stubbs and pitcher Trevor Bauer. Given that the Indians have set an asking price, maybe we should take a look at recent trades for relievers of similar or better caliber to get a sense of what the Indians might expect in return for Perez. So far this offseason two comparable relievers were moved. The Red Sox traded Jerry Sands, Stolmy Pimentel, and Mark Melancon to the Pirates in exchange for Joel Hanrahan and Brock Holt. Hanrahan represents the comparable reliever. Most thought that this trade broke down to Hanrahan for Melancon, which pundits quickly dubbed a victory for the Pirates. Hanrahan had a very lucky season last year given his peripherals while Melancon fought off a tough start to put together solidly underrated numbers. Melancon is younger and under team control for more years, making him slightly more valuable than Hanrahan. The other trade this offseason was between the Astros and Rockies. The Astros dealt reliever Wilton Lopez to the Rockies for minor league pitchers Alex White and Alex Gillingham. Both prospects are starting pitchers, each with enough deficiencies to label them both as projects. So, so far we have one reliever exchanged for another reliever of slightly better standing and the 2nd acquired for 2 project prospects. These aren't lofty hauls.

During the 2012 season 2 other "big time" relievers swapped teams, Jonathan Broxton and Brandon League. League went to LA for 2 prospects, one an outfielder with some upside and the other a relief pitcher who made double A last season, but struggles with his control. Broxton was moved in exchange for Donnie Joseph and J.C. Sulbaran. Josepth is a lefty specialist out of the bullpen who has put up very good numbers in AA and AAA, leading the Royals to put him on their 40-man roster heading into 2013. Sulbaran projects as a 4 or 5 starter who has the build to be an innings eater and the numbers to back it up. Both Broxton and League were under less team control than Perez, but both performed better than Perez prior to being traded. In 2011, 3 comparable relievers were traded midseason and 2 in the offseason, all yielding similar packages in return with the exception of the swap between the Rangers and the Blue Jays. In that deal, which was made in the offseason, the Blue Jays sent catcher Mike Napoli to the Rangers in exchange for reliever Frank Francisco. This was just prior to Napoli's power surge, making the deal very skewed in Texas' favor.

Overall, this analysis of previous trades gives us a sense of Perez's realistic trade value. Teams that are in the market for Perez's services include the San Francisco Giants, Detroit Tigers, Toronto Blue Jays, and possibly the Cincinnati Reds. On the other hand, by the time the 2013 trade deadline roles around, that list may have grown to almost twice the size. Simple economics teach us that it is best to buy low and sell high. So, the Indians want to wait until Perez is at his highest demand before flipping him, which might be now, or could be in 6 months. At the moment I'd be surprised if the Indians could get more than a similar deal to the one that Astros got for Wilton Lopez. Lopez was a far better reliever than Perez in 2012, but he comes with some injury concerns (Just ask the Phillies), so his stock was about the same as Perez's is now. I expect the Indians would much rather receive one top 6 prospect than 2 high ceiling/low floor prospects like the Astros got for Lopez. This leads me to believe that Perez, if moved, won't call a new city home until June or July. Recently, with the Nationals' signing of Rafael Soriano, the pattern of NL teams polishing their rosters by stacking their bullpens has emerged. This advent has made Perez look more and more like a very likely future trade candidate, so watch out for teams like the Pirates, Phillies, and Reds to come calling looking for relief help midseason.

In the offseason, MLB lovers grasp onto anything to quell their desire for Baseball given the lack of games being played. This includes looking for a trade wherever possible, and over-analyzing every move made from the flashiest to the most diminutive. Anyone who works in an MLB front office has to be immune to such temptations because oftentimes it is not skill, guile, or competitiveness that leads to the best results, but good timing. MLB General Managers and their staff's have to act as stock traders, timing the market at the precise time so as to cash in for the best possible return. Antonetti and the Indians seem to be waiting patiently, asking for too much and fending off lesser offers for Perez now, hoping to time the market perfectly later to and get the high caliber prospect they are looking for in return for Perez. Such patience should be admired, as some GM's due to pressure from all sorts of sources often jump the gun and make a hasty trade that backfires with ease. The Mariners recent trade for Michael Morse marks a good example of such a move. The Indians know Perez is not worth the money they are paying him right now, but in due time, he may reap benefits they hadn't even though possible.

Sweet DeJesus

2013-01-11T10:07:00.000-08:00

As February 12th, the day that Phillies' pitchers and catchers report to spring training, approaches, many pundits, fans, and analysts continue to discuss the Phillies recent inactivity in improving the team's 2013 outfield. As their depth chart currently stands, the Phillies will play the newly acquired Ben Revere in center field, Domonic Brown in right field, and a mix of John Mayberry Jr., Darin Ruf, and Layne Nix in left field. If we look at Fangraphs.com "fans projections" current Phillies outfielders will produce ~ 7.9 fwins combined. For comparison's sake, the same projections have the Nationals outfield of Werth, Span, and Harper putting up more than 12 combined fwins. So, from the looks of it, the Phillies have some work to do if they expect to compete for 1st place in he NL East or even a playoff spot.

Platoon: Not Just a Movie:
Platoon was a great war movie featuring Charlie Sheen, Willem Dafoe, and Tom Berenger. In Baseball the word platoon doesn't imply an Oliver Stone directed war movie, but when two or more players (usually 2) that play the same position, split time at said position instead of anointing one the starter and the other an occasional fill-in. The usual paradigm has one player named the starter for a given position, with bench players filling in for the starter once a week or even less frequently depending on the starters' age and production. The most common reason for using the platoon model instead of the starter/reserve model is when a manager is given two players who play the same position, but one player hits only lefties well while the other only hits righties well. The lefty/righty platoon difference is very real, and General Managers often exploit this idea when it is cheaper than paying/trading for one player that hits both righties and lefties well. For example, last season the Oakland A's used this system to perfection. At first base, the A's went with the duo of Chris Carter versus left-handed pitching, and Brandon Moss versus right-handed pitching. At the designated hitter spot, the A's went with lefty Seth Smith against righties and righty Johnny Gomes against lefties.

	DH		1B
	vs. LHP	vs. RHP	vs. LHP	vs. RHP
Player	Jonny Gomes	Seth Smith	Chris Carter	Brandon Moss
OBP	0.413	0.352	0.311	0.363
SLG	0.561	0.454	0.526	0.643
wOBA	0.418	0.345	0.386	0.419
wRC+	171	120	149	172

Now, if I were to show you these same players' combined statistics vs. lefties and righties, all four players' numbers would seem pedestrian. On the other hand, look at the numbers in the table above. All 4 of these players stats look equivalent or better than All-Stat caliber players. Here is the best number of all. The combined salary of these 4 players in 2012 was under $6,000,000. By using a platoon at two positions, the equivalent value of 2 star players for the price of ~ 1 fwin.

The Phillies Situation:

The Phillies find themselves in a solid platoon advantage situation. It is safe to assume that new center fielder Ben Revere will, if healthy, start the majority of the games in the outfield. On the other hand, the Phillies are then left with 4 players, 2 lefties, and 2 righties, to fill the corner outfield spots. With reports on the hot stove of the Phillies standing pat with their current depth chart as well as others reporting that Ruben Amaro continues to look for an outfielder, it is safe to assume that either option is possible. Unfortunately for Amaro, the number of available outfield options has been dwindling of late with Cody Ross signing a contract in Arizona, the Indians signing Nick Swisher, and Ichiro resigning with the Yankees.

John Mayberry Jr.

Right now, the Phillies are projected to start Domonic Brown in right field and John Mayberry Jr. in left field. Mayberry, a right-handed batter, has little trouble dominating southpaws, but might consider closing his eyes when hitting against righties as it might produce more favorable results.

	John Maybery Jr.
	vs. LHP	vs. RHP
OBP	0.328	0.302
SLG	0.547	0.379
wOBA	0.371	0.301
wRC+	133	86

Mayberry plays good enough defense to play in the outfield for 100+ games a season, but given his inability to figure out right-handed pitching, it's a good bet that we see Mayberry playing at one of the outfield positions every time the Phillies face a left-handed pitcher.

The Phillies still have Laynce Nix on the roster. Nix can play both corner outfield positions, but projects better in left, and has distinct platoon splits.

	Laynce Nix
	vs. LHP	vs. RHP
OBP	0.238	0.297
SLG	0.288	0.447
wOBA	0.235	0.317
wRC+	34	89

Nix's career numbers don't look too hot against any pitchers, but if played selectively against only right-handed pitching, Nix could provide some value. He has little ability to get on base, but against righties, Nix has shown he can smash the ball, with a slugging percentage of ~.450 and an ISO of .194. Nix isn't a very good defender, and project much better as a left-handed pinch hitter off of the bench as opposed to a left-handed platoon option in the outfield.

Domonic Brown

In right field, the Phillies project to give Domonic Brown as many starts as possible. Brown was a top prospect only 2 years ago, and most think he is just a late MLB bloomer who needs to given playing time. Whether Brown lives up to his previous hype or becomes an official bust is uncertain, but what is fairly certain is that the Phillies want Brown to start in right field. Brown, a lefty, has shown a greater propensity for hitting right-handed pitching in comparison to southpaws.

	Domonic Brown
	vs. LHP	vs. RHP
OBP	0.302	0.412
SLG	0.284	0.324
wOBA	0.260	0.321
wRC+	59	99

Brown's power has been iffy since being called up to the big show, but he continues to show improved patience at the plate, making him valuable given the Phillies struggles at getting men on base. If we assume that Brown improves in 2013, against lefties and righties, he still remains a decent candidate for a platoon. More pitchers are righties, so Brown, if platooned with another player, will still get most of the at bats. A platoon of Brown and Mayberry in right field looks something like this:

	RF
	vs. LHP	vs. RHP	Average
Player	Mayberry	Brown
OBP	0.328	0.412	0.370
SLG	0.547	0.324	0.436
wOBA	0.371	0.321	0.346
wRC+	133	99	116

Witha platoon of Mayberry and Brown in right field, the Phillies have the ability to start a player every day who can provide above-average offensive value in right field.

In left field, the right-handed hitter the Phillies can use in a platoon is Darin Ruf. Ruf exploded on the scene last season after hitting 40+ home runs between AA and AAA, before being called up to the Major Leagues where, in limited playing time, he produced good value. Ruf is a young right-handed hitter who projects to hit left-handed pitching better than righties even though he seems to be able to put up at least average numbers against pitchers throwing from both sides of the rubber. Ruf is a big guy, and doesn't project to be an outfielder who can play 150+ games defensively without hurting his team. Combining his and Laynce Nix's numbers in left field might seem like a fit, but even if Ruf produced, Nix's numbers aren't good enough to make one solid outfielder when platooning. This leaves the Phillies with one need, a left-handed hitting corner outfielder who can hit right-handed pitching, and preferably plays above-average defense.

The Solution:

After looking around the league for a player that fits my description above, the best player I could find is the Cubs David DeJesus. DeJesus is a veteran, having played well in Kansas City, Oakland, and most recently in Chicago. The big question is, can DeJesus + Darin Ruf combine to make an above-average left fielder like Brown and Mayberry do in right? Here are DeJesus' career splits:

	David DeJesus
	vs. LHP	vs. RHP
OBP	0.325	0.367
SLG	0.346	0.449
wOBA	0.302	0.357
wRC+	80	117

As you can see, DeJesus hits a bit below average vs. southpaws, but is proficient at mashing righties. Due to Ruf's limited time in MLB, I'm going to use his overall projected statistics according to Fangraphs' "Fan Projections" for both righties and lefties combined, as the projections do not show splits.

	LF
	vs. LHP	vs. RHP	Average
Player	Ruf	DeJesus
OBP	0.336	0.367	0.352
SLG	0.486	0.449	0.468
wOBA	0.353	0.357	0.355
wRC+	115	117	116

Well, the two players combined would put up almost identical numbers to the combination of Mayberry and Brown in right field. Combine these two platoons with Ben Revere in centerfield, and the Phillies could legitimately muster an outfield that doesn't force a gag reflex. In addition to DeJesus' nice splits, he is under contract for 2013 at $4.25 million, with a team option for 2014 worth $6.5 million and a $1.5 million buyout. That is a very favorable contract, given that he would immediately become the most expensive outfielder on the Phillies roster if traded to Philly. DeJesus would also make up for Ruf's defensive inefficiencies. In his career playing left field, DeJesus has posted a combined 36.2 UZR and 8 DRS. Both of those numbers show an outfielder who may not be suited for center field, but can play well in left.

Jonathan Pettibone

So, what would the Phillies have to give up to pry DeJesus from the Cubs? First, going into any negotiation with Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein, a GM has to assume that he may not end up with the better deal. On the other hand, if the return from the Cubs first well, as DeJesus does, the cubs getting the better overall deal may not make mean as much. The Cubs don't need to trade DeJesus, and the Phillies could seriously use the upgrade, so Hoyer and Epstein do hold all the cards. But, a package of RHP Jonathan Pettibone (BP ranks him the Phillies 8th best prospect) and RHP Michael Schwimmer could give the Cubs enough of a return to justify trading DeJesus while not putting another dent into the Phillies farm system. DeJesus' departure would open up the chance for the Cubs to see more of prospect Brett Jackson in the Majors, something the Cubbies weren't considering, but could prove fruitful. Acquiring Pettibone, who Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus consideres a solid #4 starter beginning in 2014, gives the Cubs a young, controllable option in their rotation as opposed to constantly signing pitchers like Scott Baker and Scott Feldman every offseason. Schimer is a young power right-handed bullpen pitcher with some MLB experience, something every team, especially one in repair, could use going forward.

The Reality:

The Cubs have no need to trade David DeJesus unless the team on the other end of the trade truly gives them something valuable. While Pettibon + Schwimer doesn't seem like a star-studded package, it is more valuable to the Cubs than 1, maybe 2 years, of DeJesus. The Phillies would solve their outfield problem without raising payroll very much, and without depleting the last bit of talent left in their recently beleaguered farm system. The most important thing to remember is that trades are tricky, and that they sound far better in theory. In reality, this deal might be difficult to push, especially since the Cubs have no reason not to ask for a better return for DeJesus. To conclude, this deal would help both sides, probably make DeJesus happy as he would be playing for a winning team, and most importantly would most-likely end the offseason for the Phillies. Will it happen? I doubt it, but a fan can dream, can't he?

Morse Code

2013-01-09T06:20:00.000-08:00

Adam LaRoche

Yesterday, the Washington Nationals re-signed free agent first baseman Adam LaRoche to a 2-year $24 million contract with $22 million slated to be salary for the first two years and the other $2 million as a buyout in the third year if LaRoche's mutual option doesn't vest. Immediately, this move secures the Nationals a veteran first baseman who has performed well lately in D.C. and showed images of brilliance at pitcher friendly Turner Field in Atlanta. LaRoche, who recently turned 33 years old, brings a multi-faceted game to the Nationals, as well as a left-handed bat in the middle of the order to complement righties Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, and Ian Desmond. Some may poo poo LaRoche's age, but this contract is short term, 2 years, and LaRoche plays a relatively effortless defensive position that has allowed older players with power to continue to produce impressive stats.

Here's a look at LaRoche's 2012 season, which is essentially the sole reason for getting ~ $12 million AAV, more than the qualifying offer the Nationals offered LaRoche a few months ago.

	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	HR
2012	0.271	0.343	0.510	0.361	127	33

LaRoche's overall hitting production derived from his power numbers. The 33 home runs, a spike, led to a slugging percentage over .500, placing him 11th in the Major Leagues. No one denies that LaRoche has always been able to hit, but what has contributed to his inconsistent production? LaRoche's approach to the plate may have been altered slightly during the 2012 season in comparison to those that came before. LaRoche continued to swing more often than the average hitter, make contact less often than the average hitter, but increased his swing percentage on pitches in the strike zone while laying off pitches out of the zone. This alteration shows a better eye at the plate. This was a hitter looking to swing more at strikes, but more importantly crushing the ball when getting pitches in the strike zone.

While LaRoche's offensive game has been up and down throughout his career, Adam's defensive prowess has not wavered. While it took a year or so for his defensive abilities to become apparent, since then, LaRoche has proven he will flash the leather and corral every semi-arrant thrown at the far right side of the infield. Here are his numbers using more advanced metrics:

Year	UZR	DRS	FRAA
2004	-0.6	2	-7.4
2005	-18.2	-13	-2.5
2006	-4.6	-11	5.5
2007	7.6	2	10.3
2008	-6.5	-5	0.4
2009	0.2	-2	6.3
2010	4.8	6	9.7
2011	13.4	5	3
2012	5.7	8	10.8

Range at 1st base can often show itself more once a player has gained more experience, since speed is less necessary at 1st base than proper form and instinct. Without a doubt, LaRoche's defense ranks far higher than the Nationals other possibility at the position, Michael Morse. Morse's career -2.7 UZR and -5 DRS in a little over 800 career innings at 1st base pales in comparison to LaRoches consistent success at the position. LaRoche provides leadership both in the young infield as well as on a young team sporting Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, Danny Espinosa, and Ian Desmond. In addition, the Nats third baseman Ryan Zimmerman has had issue throwing from third base, which puts a premium on having a skilled defensive first baseman. To cap off the reasons why the Nationals will most likely enjoy the services of LaRoche for the next two seasons without remorse is his projections for 2013. PECOTA projects him to put up about 1.3 WARP next season with 19 home runs and a .321 OBP. Bill James' projections have LaRoche putting up a slash line of .256/.334/.471. While this production doesn't stack up to Adam's 2012, LaRoche is a candidate for some regression, but the damage doesn't seem to be that bad.

Michael Morse

So, since, LaRoche will occupy 1st base for the Nats for at least the next 2 seasons, the club is heavy by one player, Michael Morse. Immediately after the news came down concerning the LaRoche's new deal with Washington, the rumors began to fly concerning a possible trade involving Michael Morse. Morse is a righty with experience in the outfield and at 1st base, who has recently figured it out at the plate. Morse has become more than a big guy crushing pitches, hitting for a solid batting average, above-average on base percentage, and doing it against both righties and southpaws. Over the last three seasons, Morse has figured it out at the plate, dealing with some injury problems in 2012, while LaRoche had a big year.

Year	Games Played	fWAR	rWAR	WARP
2010	98	1.1	1.2	1.5
2011	146	3.3	3.1	3.4
2012	102	0.3	0.6	0.1

Morse doesn't have the resume of consistency that LaRoche brings to the tabel. In addition, Morse is under control for only one season, and bats from the right side of the plate as opposed to the left. Morse provides less defense prowess despite the position he plays. Despite the appeal of LaRoche, Morse provides solid plate discipline, constant doubles power to both gaps, and a hitter with very few deficiencies at the plate. He isn't abysmal in the field, making him a trade candidate to both AL and NL teames. The main issue with Morse is his contract. A team that trades for him might decide to invest in the slugger by signing him to an extension, while some may offer less to the Nats knowing full well they will only have Morse in the lineup for 1 season. Teams that have been linked to the Morse and the Nats include the Yankees, Orioles, Mariners, Rangers, Phillies, and Rays.

Yankees: According to an article in the New York Daily News, the Yankees will send rookie catcher Austin Romine, who missed most of last season due to injury, back to triple A, and that the team is focused on finding a right-handed hitting outfielder. Given that the Yankees have already resigned Ichiro, and have both Brett Gardner and Curtis Granderson returning, the team isn't looking to trade for a player like Michael Morse who is better suited for first base and hits well against both righty and lefty pitchers. The Yankees may see how little they can trade in exchange for Morse, but Brian Cashman would rather sign Scott Hairston but remain in on the Morse talks to drive the price up in case the Orioles/Rays remain serious contenders for Morse's services.

Orioles: The Orioles farm system is currently top heavy, and I doubt Dan Duquette is willing to trade any of his top prospects for one year of Michael Morse. If the Orioles forgo a trade for Morse, their most likely option at either DH or 1st base will be lefty Chris Davis. Davis came on strong following the trade deadline in 2012, ending the season with more than 30 home runs, while playing in the outfield and at 1st base.

	True Avg	HR	wOBA	wRC+
Morse	0.294	9	0.363	127
Davis	0.267	13	0.322	100

Take a look at this comparison between Morse and Davis. All numbers are either their career percentage or in the case of home runs, home runs per season. Morse has less power but may be the better overall hitter, while Davis is a known commodity that is under team control for fairly cheap until 2016. The Orioles plan to use Nolan Reimold in left field, allowing Chris Davis to occupy 1st base and fill in at DH along with Matt Weiters. While Morse might help the Orioles, he isn't a huge upgrade, the Orioles are a regional rival of the Nats, and the few players they would be willing to trade could be used elsewhere. If the O's were to deal for Morse the trade might look like this:
Orioles trade Brian Matusz and minor leaguer Branden Kline for Michael Morse. It is more likely the Orioles continue to shop J.J. Hardy for a 3rd baseman in an effort to move Many Machado to shortstop.

Mariners: The Mariners recently made a move to acquire Kendrys Morales, bolstering their abundance of prospective designated hitters. Morse originally played in the Seattle organization, and would most likely take over at 1st base for the awful Justin Smoak. The Mariners would rather find a long-term option at 1st base instead of a one-year rental, but if they could work out an extension with Morse, Jack Zduriencik could be persuaded to deal for Morse. If the Mariners make this move, you might see more pieces than just Morse moving as the Mariners might also try to clear space a position in which they have a prospect ready to make the leap to the big show. For example, the Mariners could look to trade shortstop Brendan Ryan and pitcher James Paxton to the Nationals in return for Michael Morse and Ian Desmond. The Nationals would replace the hole left when they treaded prospect Alex Meyer to the Twins with an almost MLB ready player in Paxton while upgrading defensively at shortstop. The Mariners would have a shortstop 3 years of arbitration with Desmond, which consequently makes prospect Nick Franklin expendable. Since the market for young MLB ready shortstops has been high (see the Didi Gregorius deal). More likely, the Mariners refrain from a trade altogether.

Rangers: The Rangers just signed a designated hitter in Lance Berkman, but would love to add a right-handed first baseman to platoon with Mitch Moreland. Moreland has been decent, but as a lefty, he performs much better against righties than versus lefties. His career true average against southpaws is a low .232, but that number goes up to .274 against righties. In addition, Moreland has thus far been inconsistent in his defense at 1st with 2 subpar seasons and a rebound year in 2012. Platooning Moreland and Morse could be valuable for a team probably not looking to resign Morse, but hoping to get the most out of him in 2013. If the Rangers make a deal for Morse, don't look for them to send back a well-known prospect. Two names that could be apart of negotiations could be pitchers Miguel De Los Santos, and Codie Buckle.

Phillies: Recently we've heard some competing reports coming from Philadelphia. Ken Rosenthal has noted that the Phillies are still looking for outfield help, especially of the right-handed persuasion, while others have noted that Ruben Amaro is done dealing. My guess is that Amaro will look to upgrade only if the right deal falls into his lap. Otherwise he'll go with platoons in the corner outfield spots including Domonic Brown, John Mayberry Jr., Darrin Ruf, and Laynce Nix. I would say that there is a popsicles chance in hell that these two teams consummate a deal. The Nationals are the reigning NL East champs with the Phillies claiming the top spot in the division the 5 seasons prior to 2012. Due to these teams' status as divisional rivals, there is no way Michael Morse ends up in a Phillies uniform.

Rays: If the Rays trade for Morse it'll for sure only for the 2013 season. 2014 marks Morses' first chance in the free agent pool, and the Rays definitely don't have the money to sign Morse. Given that his potential service time in Tampa would be for only 1 season, don't look for the Rays to give up anything special in return. My guess is the Nationals will ask for a possibly oft-injured and young high ceiling prospect in an attempt to replenish their system with a less likely to make it Alex Meyer. The Rays still don't have a DH, so if Tampa trades for Morse, he'll most likely spend his time hitting but not fielding. So, what could the Rays move in exchange for Morse? Maybe a pitcher like Jeff Ames. Ames was drafted a few times, and eventually fell from junior college to the Rays in a supplemental first round. He's got a mid-90's fastball making him a possible late-innings reliever in the majors or possible a back of the rotation starter if he develops some secondary pitches. He'll be 22 in 2013, but if his role becomes cemented to the bullpen, he could move through the minors quickly.

Mets: I didn't mention the Mets before, but they could be a sleeper team for Morse's services. The Mets need outfield help, both for now and the future. Morse looks to only help the Mets out now given his contract, but if he performs well in NYC in 2013, the Mets could look to either extend him or trade him at the deadline. While the Mets have the same issue as the Phillies, this potential intra-divisional trade is more likely than one between the Nats and the Phillies. The Mets are not likely to be in contention next season, so a trade remains a possibility. The Mets could look to deal a pitching prospect like Jacob DeGrom who throws hard and is coming off of an injury-plagued season along with a position player like Lukas Duda. Duda is a power-hitting lefty who could be the Nats new left-handed option off the bench for Davey Johnson. The Mets would only go in on this type of deal if they were sure they could either find value for Morse at the trade deadline, or could extend Morse on a deal in the neighborhood of 3 years and $33 million. Either way I don't see this deal happening, but don't count the Mets out of it.

Adam LaRoche was the last part to the Nationals puzzle. he solidifies a position that was up in the air, and does so for a finite amount of time. Although the Nationals loved Michael Morse, he becomes expendable. Morse wants to play in order to improve his dollar value heading into 2014 free agency, so sticking it out on the National's bench would definitely make him unhappy. My guess is that he will take the first ticket out of town, with no particular penchant for one city over another. Due to Morse's recent renaissance, recent injury, defensive liabilities, and the brevity with which his free agency comes, he probably won't fetch that much in a trade. If the Nationals aren't looking for much, a deal could be made soon, but if the Nats want something more significant, it either implies a multi-player trade possibility to the chance that Morse remains for the start of 2013. If I had to guess, I'd say Morse gets traded, possibly in a three-way deal involving the Padres or a simple 2-team deal involving either the Yankees or Rangers. With LaRoche gone, Michael Bourn headlines the remaining position players on the free agent market, but look for Scott Boras to hold off until he finds what he wants, similar to Prince Fielder's situation last offseason.

Every Move Counts

2013-01-05T17:21:00.002-08:00

Generally in the Baseball offseason, the slowest time for transactions happens over the holidays, Christmas and New Years. General Managers and their staffs want to spend time with their family and friends, as do the players, agents, and their respective loved ones. So, the hot stove cools, and the fans (and pundits) are left with little to talk about. On the other hand, the entire industry does not come to a halt. Free agents still negotiate deals, trades are proposed, and players move from team to team. Here are some of the latest free agent signings.

Cody Ross

Diamondbacks sign OF Cody Ross to a 3-year $26 million contract:
Where did this come from? Jason Kubel, Justin Upton, Gerrardo Para, Adam Eaton, and A.J. Pollock. This is the list of outfielders the Diamondbacks had at their disposal before signing outfielder Cody Ross to a 3-year contract. This, all after trading center fielder Chris Young to the Oakland Athletics. Basically, the Diamondbacks have stock piled the largest arsenal of outfielders we've ever seen. They have rookies, veterans, lefties, righties, power-hitters, speedsters, great defenders, and poor defenders. Missing an outfielder? If so, call Kevin Towers because anyone who doesn't play in the infield now resides in the desert. The reasons behind the Dbacks' decision to sign Cody Ross remain speculative at best. It puts the team in a position to keep all of these players, trade one, or trade more than one. The Diamondbacks play in hitter friendly Chase Field, which means they need a solid defensive outfield to take away opposing teams' hits, and great hitters to take advantage of the offensively-friendly confines.

Cody Ross is an interesting pickup. He's a right-handed hitting corner outfielder whose career has been above average, but nothing to call your mother about. In the last 3 seasons his numbers have followed his batting average on balls put in play. BABIP is a statistic that centers around a mean of .300, with exceptions for hitters that make their living purely on making contact with the ball.

	BABIP	Slash Line	wOBA	fWAR
2010	0.324	.269/.322/.413	0.322	2.3
2011	0.279	.240/.325/.405	0.321	1.0
2012	0.317	.267/.326/.481	0.345	2.4

When Ross' luck is better, his overall performance seems to improve, but when he hits balls in play at fielders, his production falters. Ross also has fairly distinctive righty/lefty splits. In his career, Ross's wRC+ against lefties is 141, well above the league average, but a meek 92 against righties. While Ross's offensive production falls in every category when looking at his splits vs. righties, his slugging percentage scuffles the most. In his career, Ross slugs .415 against right-handed pitchers, but a fantastic .575 against lefties. This split shows that Ross will play when a lefty takes the mound against the snakes. So, given his splits, it would seem that Ross would be a perfect fit for a platoon, but you may be wondering why a team would want to pay a player more than $8 million AAV to platoon with another player when a similar platoon option like Scott Hairston remains a free agent. Hairston comes at a cheaper cost, and there is no need to lock him up for multiple years, but the Diamondbacks probably preferred Ross to Hairston due to their difference in defensive ability. Cody hasn't been a star defender, but he's put up positive defensive runs saved and ultimate zone rating numbers since in his career. He plays the corner spots much better than the defensively demanding center field, and he played much better in the smaller Fenway Park outfield than the expansive outfield in San Francisco. Ross is only getting older, which means slower, but given his splits, the Diamondbacks won't be counting on Ross for defensive perfection in every game. PECOTA expects Ross to be worth about 5.7 WARP for the duration of his contract in Arizona, but given his new home field, we might see more offensive production. Overall, this signing seemed crazy on the outset, but looks more and more genius as I delve deeper.

My Grade: B+ (As I said before, the Diamondbacks seemed stupid in making this deal, but when analyzing it, Ross looks like a fit in Arizona. The team could make serious upgrades at other positions by trading an outfielder. Most think Jason Kubel is the perfect candidate, but don't count out the team moving Justin Upton in a blockbuster deal.)

Brewers sign LHP Mike Gonzalez to a 1-year $2.25 million contact:
In 2012, the Brewers had one of the worst bullpens in Baseball. Given the Brewers' situation, the main goal this offseason had to be an upgrade in their relief core. The team's offense remains almost untouched, and their starting pitching has some youngsters looking to continue early career success. Recently the team signed lefty Tom Gorzelanny to a multi-year contract, and now Doug Melvin has inked fellow lefty and former Nat Mike Gonzalez to a 1-year contract. The Brewers relievers ranked 10th worst in Major League Baseball in wOBA against lefties last season, and 10th worst in home runs given up against left-handed batters. That, combined with the numerous left-handed hitters with power in the NL Central, made the Brewers go looking for some affordable upgrades in that department. Think about it, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Mike Rizzo, Pedro Alvarez, and Shin-Soo Choo all play in the NL Central. With hitters like that, the Brewers have to have a counter punch out of their bullpen, especially given those hitters' particular ability to hit the ball out of the ball park. Gonzalez has been solid his entire career, throwing from an over-the-top angle, but with a very "arms and legs" delivery. That means that his delivery isn't compact or simple, but instead has lots of moving parts that distract the hitter, in an attempt to keep the ball hidden from the hitters' eyes. Gonzalez has a higher career K%, lower career BB%, and drastically higher ground ball percentage against lefties than righties, making him the perfect lefty specialist coming out of Milwaukee's bullpen. At only $2.25 million, the Brewers found an affordable lefty reliever. What more could they ask for?
My Grade: A (I can't find a downside to this deal. It doesn't make the Brewers contenders, but it's a minor move that will prove important in division play.)

Indians sign RHP Brett Myers to a 1-year $7 million contract:
So, Brett Myers is sort of a weird player. He has twice moved from the starting rotation to the bullpen, and now for a second time will move back to the rotation. Most pitchers would rather start than relieve, and Myers probably turned down some offers to pitch out of the bullpen in order to sign with the Indians. The Tribe looks to be filling rotation spots with cheaper veterans rather than promote prospects. This comes from a lack of MLB ready, or close to MLB ready pitching prospects. The team recently traded for Trevor Bauer, and he will compete for a rotation spot, but most likely, if he doesn't impress, Bauer will begin the season in triple A. Myers is a solid innings eater, a solid #5 or possibly #4 starter who isn't flashy, but gets you through 6 innings of work most of the time. When tagged as a starter, Myers has thrown at least 190 innings in every season but one. That consistency combined with a very sparse injury history, and a low price tag made Myers the perfect target for the Indians. He has a typical four-pitch arsenal of fastball, curveball, slider, changeup, with the curveball acting as his best strikeout pitch. Myers has shifted from the four-seam fastball to a sinker in recent years, causing his ability to induce ground balls to go up in the latter half of his career. Myers has learned some better control recently, lowering his BB% from 2 to 3 percentage points in the last 3 seasons. The Indians aren't looking for anything spectacular from Myers, but they also aren't paying him for more than a 1.0 WARP value. If the Indians fall out of the playoff picture by the trade deadline, look for Myers to be dealt as he isn't owed very much money, and isn't signed past 2013.
My Grade: B (This deal isn't special. If the Indians perform well, Myers looks like a steal at $7 million, but if they falter, he might garner a utility infield prospect.)

Rangers sign RHP Jason Frasor to a 1-year $1.5 million contract:
The Rangers lost two important cogs in their bullpen this offseason. Both Mike Adams, now a Phillie, and Koji Uehara, now in Boston, moved eastward away from balmy Arlington for colder pastures. In addition, Neftali Feliz looks to have made a permanent move to the starting rotation, and Alexei Ogando could find himself a starter in 2013 as well. The Rangers already added righty Joakim Soria earlier this offseason, but this deal is different. Soria pitches well against both righties and lefties, making him valuable enough to sign a multiyear contract for $8 million. Frasor has a lot of difficulties getting lefties out (4.06 career FIP), but fairs better than average against right-handed hitters (3.60 career FIP). At $1.5 million, Frasor could put up similar numbers to his 2012 campaign and still be worth this contract. Look for the Rangers to possibly add one more reliever to sure up their bullpen. Texas starters Colby Lewis and Neftali Feliz are both coming back from Tommy John surgeries, with Lewis expected back mid-season and Feliz towards September. These injuries force Alexei Ogando into the rotation and leave a hole in the bullpen, one that Frasor looks to fill.
My Grade: B+ (The Rangers needed a veteran reliever on the cheap, and they seem to have found their man.)

Dodgers sign LHP J.P. Howell to a $2.85 million contract:

J.P. Howell

The Rays discovered J.P. Howell, putting him in the bullpen where he thrived. Howell has performed well against lefties, but doesn't lose that much when facing righties. Many thought the Rays would resign Howell, but given his 2011-2012 value, the Rays might have been looking for a cheaper deal than almost $3 million. Only the Rays, and maybe the A's, have to worry about minute amounts of money like signing a reliever to a 1-year $3 million contract. The Dodgers have already added to their bullpen with the signing of Brandon League, albeit an overpay, but lost LHP Randy Choate to the Cardinals. Most likely, this lefty loss led L.A. to go after J.P. Howell. The Dodgers have deep pockets and a desire to win ASAP, so Howell probably wasn't attracting offers for more than $2 million before the Dodgers swooped in and outbid everyone. Howell is a solid pitcher who joins Scott Elbert as the two lefties in the Dodgers' pen. PECOTA and the Bill James projections see Howell outperforming his $2.85 million contract. He'll get a lot of work against lefties, and should prove his worth in pitcher friendly Chavez Ravine.
My Grade: B (If the Dodgers had to outbid other teams to get Howell, then this contract looks a little worse than I originally thought, but since most projections show Howell to outperform his current 2013 pecuniary value, I see this as a solid deal for both sides.)

Lance Berkman

Rangers sign 1B/DH Lance Berkman to a 1-year $10 million contract:
I previously wrote that that the perfect fit for Lance Berkman in 2013 would be in Tampa Bay. I sorely underestimated how much money teams would be willing to pay the soon-to-be 37 year old coming off of knee and calf injuries in 2012. Berkman has been very productive in his career, hitting for a career slash line of .296/.409/.544. Notice his incredibly high on base percentage and slugging percentage. Berkman is a duel threat at the plate, getting on base and hitting for power. The Big Puma has 360 career home runs and hasn't put up a wRC+ lower than 114 since his rookie season of 1999. Berkman was always a staple in Houston as part of the buzzing b's. He is a switch-hitter, who performs demonstratively better from the left side of the plate, but holds his own vs. left-handed pitching knocking southpaws around for a career .342 wOBA. Berkman has only two factors working against him, his age and recent injury history. PECOTA projects Berkman to be worth 3.0 WARP in 2013 and 2.2 WARP in 2014. The Rangers hope Berkman will fill the designated hitter role, smashing balls into the stands in right-field in hitter and home run friendly Texas. If Berkman produces the way PECOTA and Bill James (.279/.389/.485) expect he will, the $10 million price tag will look like a steal. If Berkman fails to hit 20 home runs and only plays in 70 games, it will look like a waste, but of only 1 to 2 million dollars.
My Grade: A- (The Rangers have a very right-handed lineup, so Berkman's power from the left side is a much needed upgrade. Berkman returns to Texas (he played most of his career for the Astros) instead of retiring, and should produce if healthy.)

Okay, you got me, none of these signings are monumental, but don't discount them as negligible. Howell, Frasor, and Gonzalez should all contribute to bullpens without needing to be the keystones, while Ross joins a well-stocked outfield in hitter friendly Arizona. The Rangers and Nolan Ryan apparently sought after Lance Berkman so much that Ryan flew to see Berkman in order to convince him to play in 2013, and do so for the Texas Rangers. Brett Myers is the true mundane signing of the bunch, but even he could prove interesting if traded mid-season. Look for January and February to be busy months on the MLB hot stove with Michael Bourn, Kyle Lohse, Adam LaRoche, and Shaun Marcum still unsigned and numerous trade-possible players still out there. Oh, and remember, only 37 more days until pitchers & catchers report.

The Wheels Keep Turning

2012-12-23T13:19:00.001-08:00

While many Americans will enjoy their mandatory occupational relief on on December 25th, the hot stove of the Major League Baseball offseason continues to burn, not unlike the ever burning yule log. With a number of the big name free agents no longer claiming unemployment, many of the contracts being currently negotiated, are the glue guys, not the big bricks. Every team needs players who fill the cracks, solidifying a team's roster, at least on paper. While these players don't command the same amount of media frenzy as say Josh Hamilton or Zack Greinke, oftentimes this lesser signings prove fruitful for teams once summer comes a callin'.

Rays Sign Roberto Hernandez (formerly Fausto Carmona) to a 1-year $3.25 million contract:
This is largest free agent contract ever tendered to a pitcher by the Rays. You might be saying to yourself, "Three and a quarter million dollars is the largest free agent contract given out to a pitcher by Tampa Bay, that figure has to be close to what Josh Hamilton will pay in taxes next year." Such a sentiment wouldn't be out of line, except that the Rays have found that the formula for success in a small market is to grow talent in expensive areas like pitching, and spend the little capital they have on positions players. The Rays' robust success since 2007 shows that their formula works. Moreover, the fact that the Pirates, Mariners, Twins, and Athletics have all employed a similar strategy seals the deal on the Rays' strategy. So, why would the Rays spend the most money they ever have on a pitcher on Roberto Hernandez, a righty sinker-baller who most recently took a year sabbatical due to immigration issues. Hernandez, formerly known as Fausto Carmona, is a tall righty who throws a hard sinker that has led to a career 58.5 ground ball percentage. The Rays recently traded a pitcher with similar numbers to Hernandez, Burke Badenhop. Badenhop sports a career 55.3 GB%, doing so mostly out of a bullpen roll, as opposed to Hernandez who has pitched almost exclusively from the starting rotation. Even after trading James Shields the Rays remain well stocked in the starting pitching department, thus, I expect Hernandez to replace Badenhop in the bullpen. His splits show an ability to force ground balls against both righties and lefties, and with his drop in free passes given out, Carmona has brought his WHIP to a reasonable level for a pitcher who plays to contact (1.36 avg WHIP 2010+2011). He should be an upgrade for the Rays, but it surprises me they would hand out so much money for a bullpen pitcher, which leads me to believe that he may be a quasi-relief pitcher throwing multiple innings per outing.
My Grade: B (Knowing the Rays, they will use Hernandez in such a way to maximize his value, we just don't know how they will play out.)

Cubs sign Carlos Villanueva to a 2-year $10 million contract:
The Cubs are stocking their roster full of starting pitchers that are prime to perform better in 2013 than they did in 2012: Scott Feldman, Scott Baker and now Carlos Villanueva. For a club that doesn't project to be a winning club for another few seasons, these moves make the Cubs out to be akin to a rehab facility. Pitchers with past problems come to the Cubs and leave reinvigorated, rejuvenated, and prime candidates to be moved at the mid-season trade deadline. The Cubs sign these pitchers to contracts that are just high enough to entice them to sign in the Windy City but low enough that teams with a need for starting pitching will be willing to negotiate a trade. Glenn DuPaul of Beyond the Box Score recently published his thoughts on predictive pitching statistics, pointing towards kwERA as a solid predictor despite it's simplicity. Using DePaul's formula for kwERA, I calculated Villanueva's 2012 kwERA to be 3.65, but his ERA was higher, coming in at 4.16. Given that split, it isn't unreasonable to assume that Villanueva should see some improvement in 2013. Since any team trading for the righty would get him for 1.5 seasons, and would take on only a minimal amount of salary, Villanueva projects as a very tradeable pitcher come July 2013.
My Grade: A- (The Cubs didn't make a large monetary commitment to the Dominican native, and should be able to parlay him for a return of prospects at the trade deadline. In the meantime, Villanueva has job security, a sizeable increase in salary from the $2,770,500 million he made last season, and the possibility to moving to a winning team by the latter part of the summer.)

Brewers sign LHP Tom Gorzelanny to a 2-year $5.7 million contract:
Finally, the Brewers sign a free agent. Up to this point, the biggest move the Brewers front office had pushed through was trading Raul Mondesi Jr. to the Rays in exchange for righty reliever Burke Badenhop. This move also improves the Brewer bullpen, but instead of giving up a very young toolsy prospect, Brewers GM Doug Melvin has committed just under $6 million over two seasons to land Gorzelanny. Gorzelanny hasn't been anything special as far as pitchers go, but since moving to the bullpen, his production has improved. As a reliever, Gorzelanny has posted a 3.76 FIP despite a lower BABIP, which comes from an increase in strikeouts and a decrease in home runs. While Gorzelanny sports better numbers against lefties than righties, the only difference is that he gives up fewer walks to lefties. Is he more confident against lefties? Does he get more calls from umpires? Maybe it's the types of pitches he throws. Either way, in order to justify his salary, Gorzelanny needs to post ~ 0.5 fWins per season. Since moving permanently to the bullpen, Gorzelanny has posted 0.9 fWins in 2 years. Using PECOTA's as a forecasting model, Gorzelanny should play up to his contract. The Brewers haven't addressed their lack of depth in their projected 2013 starting rotation, but have improved their abysmal bullpen, which should buttress their already explosive offense well.
My Grade: B- (Gorzelanny isn't a great bullpen pitcher, but he comes cheap, and even as a league average pitcher, represents an upgrade to the Brewers bullpen. If Gorzelanny can lower his walk rate and induce some more ground balls, he could provide extra value.)

Marlins sign 3B Placido Polanco to a 1-year $2.75 million contract:
This signing defines uninteresting. The Phillies made the easy decision to decline the $5.5 million option on Polanco, allowing him to become a free agent. Polanco spent much of 2012 on the disabled list. When in the lineup, he produced little offensively, but did provide continued above average defense at third base (2 DRS, 4.1 UZR, 5.2 FRAA). Polanco is a contact hitter that rarely strikes out. The key to his success at the plate is to reach base safely, sporting a career .344 on base percentage, but in 2012, Polanco's OBP dropped to a below-average .302. While much of this may have been due to a lower back injury that sidelined him for all but 90 games in 2012, if it is purely a decline in production, Polanco's career may be nearing an abrupt end. If he can put up the .279/.332/.368 slash line that Bill James projects him to produce, than Polanco might be rewarded by a mid-season trade to a contendor, or even another 1-year deal, for more money, in 2014. For the Marlins, this allows the team to either platoon the righty Polanco with lefty prospect Zack Cox, leave Cox in triple A for the year, or some combination of the two. Polanco hails from Miami, so signing there makes a lot of sense for him, in spite of the fact that Miami may compete with the Astros for worst record in MLB in 2013.
My Grade: A (This deal is good for everyone involved.)

Cubs sign RHP Edwin Jackson to a 4-year $52 million contract:

Edwin Jackson

2013 will mark Edwin Jackson's 7th full season in Major League Baseball. In 7 seasons, Jackson has played for 6 different teams, having been traded 5 times. Last year he signed a 1-year deal with the Washington Nationals. Jackson has become a "just better than average" starting pitcher. He sports a K%, BB%, and FIP that lie just above the league average. In 2012, Jackson experienced a drop in opponents BABIP (.278), signifying a regression toward the mean (.293) in 2013, but simultaneously saw a spike in his HR/9 (1.09 in 2012 0.72 in 2011). This spike in home runs could be due to pitching half of his games in Washington D.C., which ranks 13th out of 30th in most home runs surrendered by stadium, or it could point to some bad luck. Either way, using Jackson's kwERA and xFIP from 2012 (3.73, 3.79), it would seem that Jackson should put up better numbers in 2013. PECOTA doesn't like Jackson, forecasting him to put up under 1 WARP/season over the course of his new contract. Jackson, like most pitchers, does better after going up 0-1 in an at bat rather than starting the at bat with a ball. Jackson is at the point in his career at which intelligence and adaptability become more important than talent. If E-Jax can learn how to get ahead of hitters more often, combined with the switch to Wrigley Field, he could justify his $13 million AAV (2.6 fWins/season). This contract differs from most that the Cubs have tendered to players of recent in that it is a multi-year deal for a considerable AAV. It signifies that the Cubs are looking a little further down the road, locking up a better-than-average starting pitcher for 4 years. If the price for an "Edwin Jackson" type starter increases in the next 3 years as it most likely will, than by 2015 this deal could look like a steal. In addition, it isn't unreasonable to think that that Cubs will be in contention by 2015-2016, which could make Jackson a valuable and cheapish asset to have under control.
My Grade: B+ (Jackson gets an A for finally getting some job security and the highest AAV he's ever had, while the Cubs get a B. The Cubs are taking a chance, albeit not a huge one, so I can't say this is a slam-dunk.)

Rangers sign C A.J. Pierzynski to a 1-year $7.5 million contract:
After not signing Greinke or Hamilton, and failing to trade for Justin Upton, the Rangers finally make a move. Texas has signed veteran catcher A.J. Pierzynski to a 1-year contract at $7.5 million. Pierzynski put up great numbers in 2012, headed by a major power surge. Pierzynski hit a career high 27 home runs in 2012, leading to a .223 ISO. U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago has long been a hitter park, but it took Pierzynski until 2012 to take advantage of the home-run friendly nature of his home field. According to fielding metrics for catchers, Pierzynski has always been just below average, which is another way of saying playable. Pierzynski had massive splits between lefties and righties in 2012, hitting for a .369 wOBA versus righties last year but only .293 versus lefties last year. He'll be platooning at the catcher position for the Rangers in 2013 with fellow backstop Geovany Soto, making a solid hitting duo at the plate. Pierzynski isn't the long-term solution for the Rangers behind the plate, but since they need to look to upgrade at other positions as well, nailing down the catcher position at a pretty inexpensive price tag works well for Texas. Since the Ballpark in Arlington is as hitter-friendly, if not more hitter-friendly, than U.S. Cellular Field, Pierzynski should expect some attrition in his power numbers, but not by as much as Bill James projects (.223 ISO in 2012, .153 projected 2013 ISO).
My Grade: A- (Pierzynski might have wanted a multi-year deal, but given his age this has to be the best he could do. The Rangers are set at catcher for 2012, and add a veteran presence to their team at a good price.)

Francisco Liriano

Pirates sign LHP Francisco Liriano to a 2-year $12.75 million contract:
Remember kwERA? Well, Francisco Liriano put up a 4.01 kwERA and 5.34 ERA in 2012. While neither number points towards great pitching, the 1.33 difference is one of the highest in MLB last year, pointing towards a bounce back year for Liriano. Combine that with his move from Chicago's hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field to pitcher-friendly PNC Park, points towards 2013 as a year of improvement for Liriano. Add in some better defense behind Liriano, and he becomes a similar pitcher to Edwin Jackson. Jackson has been more consistent than Liriano, hence the difference in AAV and number of years in this contract in comparison to the one the Cubs gave to E-Jax. This is Liriano's first free agent contract, and at the end of it, he'll still be only 30 years old, allowing him to find another multi-year deal. Pittsburgh needed to upgrade it's starting rotation, becoming the 2nd southpaw of the bunch. PECOTA projects Liriano to put up 1.7 and 1.8 WARP respectively in 2013 and 2014, which would be a significant increase from his 2011/2012 production (0.7/0.0). I also expect Liriano to improve, but the best thing he can do is lower his walk rate. If Liriano can go from a 5.00 BB/9 to a 4.00 BB/9, he might go from being a 1-2 fWin player to a 3-4 fWin player. Given the Pirates recent improvements, and the significant young talent knocking at the MLB door (Gerrit Cole, Jamison Taillon, and Starling Marte), pitchers like Francisco Liriano could help them compete for a Wild Card spot in 2013/2014.
My Grade: A (From what I've seen, the Pirates are positioning themselves perfectly to make a splash in 2013/2014. The Liriano signing is prudent, justified, and a solid pecuniary decision. For Liriano, this is great because it's for more than 1 season, and allows him to pursue more money his next go around on the open market.)

Indians sign Nick Swisher to a 4-year $56 million contract:

Nick Swisher

The 2012 offseason market for outfielders was vast, but has diminished in size due to a mix of signings and trades. Overall, those many moves made Nick Swisher a hot commodity. Swisher plays both the corner outfield spots as well as 1st base, provides average defensive ability, almost no speed on the bases, and strikes out at an above-average rate. On the other hand, Swisher is an on-base machine, posting the 14th best on base percentage amongst all MLB outfielders in 2012. He hits for power, posting a .201 ISO, 24 home runs, and collects an extra base hit every 2.5 games. Research has shown that players with good plate discipline tend to age better than those without it. Since Swisher's contract with the Indians will cover his age 32-35 seasons, we can expect Swisher's impressive on-base numbers to hover right around .360. Swisher has had very consistent success from a power-hitting perspective, but given players' tendency to lose some power as they age, we can't expect Swisher to hit 25 home runs per season throughout the course of his newly minted contract. Still, Swisher should remain a valuable player over the next few years, and the forecasting system PECOTA backs me up on this assumption.

	Projected WARP	Projected Worth in $(Million)
2013	2.2	$18.04
2014	2	$16.40
2015	1.7	$13.94
2016	1.2	$9.84

Now that we've asserted and, for the most part, confirmed that Swisher is a successful player, let's analyze his new destination. Cleveland made a splash earlier this winter when GM Chris Antonetti traded OF Shin-Soo Choo to the Reds in a 3-team trade, and received Trevor Bauer and Drew Stubbs in return. Stubbs joins Michael Brantley as options to play center field, but the Indians continued to need corner outfielders. With Swisher projecting as the Indians opening day right fielder, it allows Terry Francona to set up a a very good defensive outfield with Brantley, Stubbs, and Swisher playing in left, center, and right field respectively. Here's the problem. Swisher is a veteran who would make a good team into a potential playoff team, but the Indians are a bad team that, even with the addition of Swisher, most likely won't make the playoffs in 2013. Swisher could contribute to playoff pushes for he Indians in 2015 and 2016, but by that point he'll be older and thus less productive. Swisher won a World Series with the Yankees in 2009, but his AAV has broke $10 million for the first time in 2012. This shows he was looking for the team that would give him the highest AAV for the longest term. In addition, Swisher has roots in Ohio as he attended Ohio State University for college before becoming a professional Baseball player. Even though numerous teams were reportedly courting Swisher, Nick took the deal that fit him best.

My Grade: B+ (A+ for Swisher who looks to have gotten everything he wanted out of this deal. The Indians get a C-C+ for the move because while Swisher is an upgrade, the move makes little sense in 2013 because the Indians aren't making the playoffs in 2013 and probably not in 2014 either. It could prove fruitful in 2015 and 2016, but by then Swisher won't be the player he is now. Still, Swisher is an upgrade, plain and simple, both in 2013 and beyond.)

The Outfielders, They're Everywhere

2012-12-17T17:47:00.000-08:00

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim recently made a dashing, daring, out-of-the-blue move, snatching Josh Hamilton, considered the best hitter on the free agent market this offseason, to a 5-year $125 million contract. With the signing of Hamilton, the Angels now found themselves with an abundance of outfielders, a group that includes Mike Trout, Mark Trumbo, Vernon Wells, and Peter Bourjos. Also, due to the Angels residence in the American League, we can add Kendrys Morales to that group as well. The Angels have already made it known that they are willing to hear offers for any of the players mentioned above except for Mike Trout. Especially given the fact that the Angels could still use a #3 or better starter to solidify their roster, Trumbo and Bourjos, who have the most value, look to be the most likely to be traded. The question remains, where might Bourjos, a speedy outfielder who plays great defense (think Ben Revere), or Trumbo, a right-handed masher at the plate with trouble finding a position to play in the field, end up.

Peter Bourjos Bunting

Peter Bourjos: So far this offseason, we've seen two similar players moving from one team to another via the trade. First the Twins traded Denard Span to the Washington Nationals for RHP Alex Meyer, and next the Twins traded Ben Revere to the Phillies in exchange for RHP Vance Worley and prospect Trevor May. Bourjos plays a very similar style of game to Revere and Span in that every aspect of his game that adds value comes from his speed. Over his two and a half seasons in the Majors, Bourjos has a well above-average infield hit percentage and bunt hit percentage. His defense is excellent, ranking 2nd in outfielders in Ultimate Zone Rating and 7th amongst all outfielders in Defensive Runs Saved last season. Interestingly, Bourjos had a significant drop off in his overall value from 2011 to 2012 despite becoming a much better defender, something that generally adds value, not subtracts it. So, what happened to Bourjos in 2012? My opinion is that due to a nagging wrist injury that he suffered after being hit by a pitch caused Bourjos to swing at fewer pitches, thus giving himself fewer chances to use his speed to get on base.

	SB	OBP	IFH%	O-Swing %	Z-Swing %	F-Strike %
2011	22	0.327	14.1%	33.2%	63.0%	62.9%
2012	3	0.291	9.7%	25.8%	60.4%	65.1%

Looking at his numbers, the 2012 version of Bourjos stopped swinging at as many pitches as he did in 2011. Both his swing percentages, at pitches in the strike zone and out of the strike zone, dropped and the percent of first-pitch strikes he saw went up. The difference in the ability for a hitter to get on base between going down 0-1 or going up 1-0 in any given at bat is staggering. Hitters that get ahead of the pitcher gain a significant advantage in getting on base, a sign that one of the worst things Bourjos could have done was to swing at fewer pitches. Swinging at fewer pitches affected Bourjos' infield hit percentage, which plummeted from 14.1% to 9.7%. 9.7% is still above the MLB average for all outfielders, but given Bourjos' lack of power, .155 career ISO and 16.1 extra-base hits per 100 games played, he needs a healthy wrist in order to achieve his full potential at the plate. Given the offseason's magical healing qualities, I see Bourjos as a +2.5 win player +/- .6 wins.

So, now that know a little more about Bourjos, where, if the Angels decide to trade him might he fit best? The Cubs could be possible suitors for the young outfielder, who is under team control for the next 4 seasons, entering his 1st year of arbitration in 2014. Currently the Cubs project to start David DeJesus, Alfonso Soriano, and Nate Schierholtz in their outfield, none of whom plays good enough defense to justify playing in centerfield. Given that the Cubs were willing to offer Anibal Sanchez a 5-year contract at $77 million, it isn't unreasonable for the Cubbies to trade a starting pitcher and replace that rotation spot with a free agent signing. So, maybe the Cubs should consider trading Peter Bourjos for righty starter Matt Garza. Garza has one year left on his contract, but he's also returning from an elbow injury, making him the perfect trade partner in a straight up 1-for-1 trade with the Angels. The Angels lost out on Zack Greinke, and still need that third 2nd tier starter in their rotation to complement Jared Weaver and C.J. Wilson.

Southpaw Jon Lester

Another possible destination for Bourjos is Boston. Given the fact that Boston already has Jacoby Ellsbury to play center field, Bourjos doesn't look like a fit. How about this trade proposal? The Red Sox send Jacoby Ellsbury to the Texas Rangers in exchange for RHP Alexi Ogando and LHP Robbie Ross, and simultaneously trade LHP Jon Lester to the Angels for Peter Bourjos. These moves make a lot of sense for every team involved. The Rangers get their replacement for Josh Hamilton in Jacoby Ellsbury without trading prized prospects Jurickson Profar, Mike Olt, and Martin Perez, while the Red Sox add serious depth and controllable years to their starting rotation. The Sox also acquire Bourjos who will camp out for cheap in center field allowing the Sox to utilize Shane Victorino in right field. The Angels get a bonafide #2 start in Jon Lester at a reasonable price for one year.

Mark Trumbo: Who is Mark Trumbo? Of every player to hit above a .220 ISO (MLB avg in 2012 was .151), Trumbo had the 3rd worst BB%. Trumbo's high swing percentage and low contact percentages on pitches both in and out of the strike zone, portray a strong free-swinger who needs to develop some plate discipline in order to become more like an Adrian Beltre type hitter rather than a Chris Davis like hitter. At only 26 years old, Trumbo isn't expected to have already developed the plate discipline he needs to succeed for the next 10 seasons, but few players at his age have. As you can see by Trumbo's numbers in different pitch counts, Trumbos fairs disproportionately well when the count is in his favor, but as the count drifts from 0-0 to 0-1, to 0-2, he becomes extremely susceptible to breaking pitches out of the zone, leading to easy outs for the defense. Since Trumbo, like Bourjos, is under team control for the next 4 seasons, the needed improvements in plate discipline and BB% have time to come. In the meantime, Trumbo will continue to crush the ball when he makes contact.

In the field, Trumbo has more issues. He's played both first base and outfield for the Angels, proving to be below average in the outfield and surprisingly above average at first base. This split brings up the comparison of the Nationals Michael Morse who has also played both outfield and 1st base, playing subpar in the outfield and above average at first. If the Angels find an American League suitor for Trumbo, a mix of first base and DH would fit him well, and might even provide positive defensive value. A trade to an NL team in which he might split time between left field and first base might make him more of an aggregate average defensive player. From a base running perspective Trumbo is above average on the bases. These good numbers derive more from smart base running rather than speed, something the 6 foot 4 inch 225 pound Trumbo doesn't possess.

Mark Trumbo

Where else, other than in LA, might Trumbo fit? 3 teams come to mind. First up is the Miami Marlins. The Marlins recently cleared house by moving all major contracts to either Toronto or Arizona, but one player remaining on the Marlins depth chart that could be moved is righty Ricky Nolasco. Nolasco projects to be a +1.5 win (WARP) player according to PECOTA for another 3-4 seasons. He's currently under contract for one more season at a reasonable salary of $11.5 million. He isn't as big time an acquisition as Jon Lester, but he is a better option than Joe Blanton or Tommy Hanson. The Marlins would get their first baseman of future, and just as importantly, a power bat to complement Giancarlo Stanton. It's possible that in order to make this acquisition a done deal the Marlins may need to either pay a portion of Nolasco's 2013 salary or add in a young prospect.

Another possible destination for Trumbo is Tampa Bay. Tampa signed James Loney to a one-year deal, but Trumbo would make a great platoon bat at first base given that he is a righty and Loney a lefty, but would also do well for the Rays at DH, a position that www.mlbdepthcharts.com currently has Ryan Roberts filling. Trumbo would be under Rays control for 4 years, and would be given a chance to contribute every day. In order to complete such a transaction, the Rays might consider trading RHP Jeff Niemann, who becomes a free agent in 2015. The Rays have options to fill Niemann's spot in the rotation including Chris Archer, Alex Torres, and the newly signed Roberto Hernandez. This might weaken the Rays rotation a bit, but they gain 2 overall years of control, solidify the middle of their lineup, and allow a young starter to gain some much needed experience.

Justin Masterson

The final possible venue for Trumbo would be in Cleveland. The Indians already made a trade this offseason in order to build for the near future, and making a deal for Trumbo would follow the same game plan. The Indians got the worst power production from the 1st base spot of any team in Major League Baseball last season at .106 and the worst slugging percentage in the league at .342. In addition, the Indians have been known to be shopping a starting pitcher like Justin Masterson with teams like the San Diego Padres and Boston Red Sox interested in the righty sinker baller. Masterson is under team control for 2013 and 2014, is a good candidate for a contract extension, and forecasts as a ~ +1.8 win player for 2013 and 2014. The Indians would receive a first baseman to help fans forget the troubles they had with Travis Hafner, becoming the exclusive option at 1st after 2013 since the Indians already signed Mark Reynolds to a one-year contract for next season. In Masterson, the Angels would be getting a pitcher who is dominant when he locates his hard sinker, but only a bit above average when he's wild. Masterson is a ground ball machine who gives up very few home runs. It means he's not liable to let walks score en masse, but he might not be counted on to go more than 6 innings due to a high WHIP (1.45 in comparison to a 1.31 league average). He's a better pitcher than both Joe Blanton and Tommy Hanson, and similar to C.J. Wilson (2012 fWAR: Wilson- 2.5 Masterson- 2.3).

The Angels have a plethora of outfielders, with numerous possible lineup combinations depending on which outfielder they trade or if they make any trades.

Position	Player	Proj 2013 WARP
LF	Trumbo	1.3
CF	Trout	2.2
RF	Hamilton	3.4
Total	-	6.9

LF	Trout	2.2
CF	Bourjos	1.7
RF	Hamilton	3.4
Total	-	7.3

Both combinations of outfielders are quite valuable, especially since we can expect a better WARP than 2.2 out of Mike Trout next season. Both Bourjos and Trumbo have value on the trade market; enough value to garner a decent pitcher in return. If the Angels instead find a new home for Vernon Wells or Kendrys Morales, they will have retained a better overall lineup for now and the future, but most the team most likely will not upgrade their rotation significantly enough to make a difference. If the team trades Vernon Wells, the key will be to ask for little in return other than for the acquiring team to pick up the ridiculous $42 million left on Well's current contract. If the Angels were to get rid of even 3/4 of Well's contract, it might allow them to go after the best free agent pitchers on the market next year. Overall, the Angels hold all of the cards. If they don't want to trade anyone, they have that option. On the other hand, their current depth chart shows a need in the rotation and a plethora of outfielders, pointing towards an upcoming trade.

Recent Movement: Part II

2012-12-15T15:05:00.002-08:00

Free agency and the MLB offseason stop for no one. Following the usually bustling Winter Meetings, numerous free agents have signed with teams and trades have been consummated. In our first installment, I looked at contracts signed by Zack Greinke, Kevin Youkilis, Ichiro Suzuki, and others. In this follow up post I'll look at some of the contracts signed in the last three days including big names like Josh Hamilton and Anibal Sanchez as well as minor ones like Mike Adams and John Lannan. So, without further adieu, let's begin.

Josh Hamilton in Halo Red

LA Angels sign OF Josh Hamilton to a 5-year $125 million contract: With Zack Greinke safely secure in a Dodgers jersey, the next biggest name remaining unsigned until now was Josh Hamilton. According to sources, prior to signing this multi-year deal with the Angels, Hamilton's suitors included the Texas Rangers, Philadelphia Phillies, and Seattle Mariners. Notice how I didn't mention the Angels as a team noted to be interested in Hamilton. No one saw the Angels coming, but LA has a history of swooping in as a mystery team to sign big name free agents. Last offseason Jerry Dipoto and Arte Moreno made a big splash by signing Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson to multi-year deals. This offseason, the Angels revamped their pitching staff, but no one suspected them of needing another outfielder. Nonetheless, Hamilton is now a halo, staying in the same division, but moving a bit further west.

So, what does Hamilton bring to the table? Hamilton is a top hitter. While in Texas, Hamilton put up great offensive numbers including both power numbers and hitting for average.

	wOBA	wRC+	HR	ISO	fWAR
2008	0.384	132	32	0.226	4.1
2009	0.321	85	10	0.158	1.4
2010	0.445	175	32	0.274	8.4
2011	0.369	126	25	0.238	4.1
2012	0.387	140	43	0.292	4.4

As you can see, Hamilton is the prototypical middle of the order hitter, He creates runs at above average rates, hits home runs regularly, and in 4 out of the last 5 seasons he has been an overall offensive juggernaut. In the field, Hamilton has shown to be adequate, posting solid UZR numbers in every season in Texas other than 2012. With the impending move from the more demanding position of center field to a corner outfield spot, Hamilton's defensive numbers should return to above average rates. Hamilton brings the entire package to Los Angeles. The Angels made a bold move here. They are a wealthy team, with major money coming in from a big TV deal, but most though the Angels were done spending after picking up Pujols and Wilson. Instead, Hamilton joins Pujols and Mike Trout as a three-headed monster in the Angels lineup.

Interestingly, the Angels signing of Hamilton fits well with the other moves the team has made this offseason. The team ridded themselves of the talented underachieving Ervin Santana as well as Dan Haren replacing the two starters with Joe Blanton and Tommy Hanson. Hanson and Blanton are solid innings eaters, but without a solid offense, these two pitchers won't make the difference between Angels wins and losses. Well, with the addition of Hamilton, the Angels added the cog that will help the Angels win games despite average pitching. With Trout, Hamilton, and Pujols making up 3 of the first 4 spots in the Angels batting order, opposing pitchers will have to tread carefully.

My Grade: A- (Okay, so no one saw this coming, but it actually makes a lot of sense for both the Angels and Hamilton. Hamilton moves away from Texas, but joins a team with one of the best managers in baseball, and most importantly a team willing to give him more than a 4-year contract. Hamilton wanted stability, but most teams saw him as volatile given his off the field problems with substance abuse. The Angels needed another big bat in their lineup to provide value in place of the departing Zack Greinke. It's odd to think that the Angels could replace Greinke's production on the mound with a bat, but value is value, and instead of giving up fewer runs, the Angels are just going to score more. Both lead to more victories.)

Red Sox sign RHP Ryan Dempster to a 2-year $26.5 million contract: You might be asking yourself, do the Red Sox have a thing for players making $13 million AAV? Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino, and now Ryan Dempster will all make ~ $13 million per season over the course of their contracts with the Sox. Victorino and Napoli aside, let's focus on Dempster's recent deal. Dempster is somewhat of a phenomenon in that his career took off after crossing age 30 threshold. Ever since Dempster turned 30, he has posted an average fWAR of 3.6 per season as opposed to an average fWAR of 0.8 in the 5 years prior to turning 30. This portrays a pitcher who has always had talent, but figured it out later in his career. That type of turnaround only comes from someone who has the intelligence to adapt towards falling velocity on his fastball, and the acumen to learn how to fool hitters by locating and mixing up his pitches. PECOTA projects Dempster to put up 1.7 and 1.2 WARP in 2013 and 2014 respectively, making him worth just about the amount of money he will be paid in those years. The Red Sox are definitely not stupid, and whether Dempster ends up becoming a trade candidate at he 2013 deadline or a solid #3 starter for a contending Sox team, Ben Cherington and company can be assured to get a solid value out of Dempster. Dempster gets outs by throwing a hard sinker that has a solid pitch value, enough to consistently get Dempster GB% numbers above 43%. Combine those numbers with a K/9 rate of ~ 8.00, and you've got a pitcher that keeps the ball in the ballpark, but misses plenty of bats as well. As long as Dempster continues to pound the strike zone, keeping his BB/9 low, he should provide the value that PECOTA forecasts he will.

My Grade: B+ (The Red Sox should get solid value out of Dempster, with the key to his deal being the length of the contract, not the dollar amount. If the Red Sox are contenders in 2013, Dempster will surely be a significant component, but if they falter, he would be the perfect trade candidate at the 2013 trade deadline. Most teams in contention would love a right-handed veteran who gets ground balls at a reasonable salary and with one year of control under his belt.)

Anibal Sanchez

Tigers sign RHP Anibal Sanchez to a 5-year $80 million contract: So what do we have here? Every big name free agent on the 2012-2013 market has changed teams. Greinke went from the Angels to the Dodgers, Hamilton switched AL West teams going from Texas to LA, and B.J. Upton moved from Tampa to Atlanta. Finally, a top free agent who decided to stay with his 2012 team for the future. As this article shows, Greinke and Sanchez compare fairly favorably, except that Greinke has shown glimpses of ace status pitching, while Sanchez seems to top out at a #2 starter. Still, Sanchez's new $80 million contract bests C.J. Wilson's deal deal from last offseason, so how did this deal get done? It was reported that the Cubs had offered Sanchez a deal similar to the one Wilson got last season from the Angels, until Sanchez decided to give the Tigers a last shot at besting the Cubs' offer. The Tigers swooped in, and signed Sanchez, effectively stealing him from the Cubs. Sanchez obviously wanted to return to Detroit, but then why would he want to leave? The Tigers are contenders who need Sanchez to solidify their rotation behind Justin Verlander. Sanchez is young (28 years old), durable (3 straight seasons with at least 195 innings pitched), keeps the ball in the park (.92 HR/9 in 2012), and most importantly, projects well in the future. At $16 million AAV, Sanchez will need to continue his > 3 win success in order to justify the money coming his way. Whether he can accomplish this feat is unknown, but given the Tigers' other option, this was probably the best decision for the franchise.

My Grade: B (A+ for Sanchez seeing as he's probably getting more money than he's worth, but only a C+ for the Tigers. Theoretically they could have spent that money more wisely because Sanchez isn't a sure thing. It'll be interesting to see if Sanchez lives up to this deal, or becomes an overpaid #4 starter.)

Mike Adams

Phillies sign RHP Mike Adams to a 2-year $12 million contract: Ruben Amaro continues to stupefy Phillies fans by making prudent, intelligent, and understated moves. First he traded for Ben Revere instead of paying boatloads of money for Josh Hamilton or Michael Bourn, next he traded for Michael young instead of signing Kevin Youkilis, and now he's making smart decisions to upgrade the bullpen. Mike Adams is about as solid of a bullpen pitcher as is out there. Adams won't blow you away, but he throws a very good cutter and curveball that fool hitters from both sides of the plate, forcing them to hit the ball on the ground, but more importantly keeping the ball in the park. Adams, even in home run friendly Texas, kept his HR/FB % below 8%, which is an incredible feat. Since 2006 only three Texas relievers have kept their HR/FB % below 8%, and they are all considered top of the line relief pitchers (Joaquin Benoit, Neftali Feliz, and Darren Oliver). Adams has been durable, providing an average of ~ 59.0 innings pitcher per season since 2008, doing so in San Diego and Texas. It is important for late inning relievers to be able to pitch in higher-pressure situations, and Adams does just that, posting positive WP/LI numbers in his last 5 seasons as well as a 1.27 clutch in 2012. At age 35, it makes sense that Adams is looking for a veteran team with playoff hopes as well as a multi-year contract. The Phillies must have been thrilled to keep Adam's annual salary to an average of $6 million, willingly giving the righty pen pitcher more than a single year deal. Adding Adams to lefty Antonio Bastardo, righty Philippe Aumont, and closer Jonathan Papelbon makes a lot of sense, and solidifies the Phillies bullpen.

My Grade: A (There is little to be said against this deal. The Phillies aren't paying a lot for a solid late inning reliever with experience, and an inability to give up home runs, which is a must in home run friendly Citizens Bank Park. Adams gets the security of a 2-year deal, something most relievers over the age of 35 get.)

Phillies sign LHP John Lannan to a 1-year $2.5 million contract: Ruben Amaro continues to impress. The Phillies trade of Vance Worley and Trevor May to the Twins in exchange for Ben Revere left the Phillies with a hole in their rotation. This is precisely the hole that the Phillies expect John Lannan to fill. Lannan spent most of his time in triple A last season due to the plethora of pitchers the Nationals had on their roster including Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Edwin Jackson, etc... So, why would the Phillies want a pitcher who couldn't even crack an opening day roster in 2012? Well, John Lannan is a very specific type of pitcher. He, like Mike Adams, keeps the ball in the ballpark, and more importantly keeps the ball on the ground. In his career, Lannan has put up some abysmal strikeout numbers (career 4.71 K/9), but has compensated for his inability to miss bats by posting a career GB% of 53%. While Lannan will give up his share of base runners, with runners on base, he has a 50% ground ball percentage, showing his ability to keep runners from scoring by forcing hitters to ground into double plays. The Phillies have solid up-the-middle defense in the combination of Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley, a duo that should make Lannan look very good. In looking at a comparison between the departed Worley and Lannan we see a two pitchers who produce similar value but do so in completely different ways. Worley combined solid K/9 rates with good left on base % to keep his ERA down, while Lannan uses the ground ball to get most of his outs. So the equation for this deal is as follows: Ben Revere + John Lannan = Vance Worley + Trevor May. Does this make sense? Well, it probably does. The Phillies have a group of young pitchers all close to being able to compete for the 5th spot in their rotation including Jonathan Pettibone and Brody Colvin, so signing Lannan to fill that spot for one season makes a lot of sense. Here's what PECOTA projects for the Phillies 2013 rotation:

	2013 WARP
Roy Halladay	4.2
Cliff Lee	3.6
Cole Hamels	3.6
John Lannan	0
Kyle Kendrick	-0.3
Total	11.1

My Grade: B (Now the Phillies sport three ground ball pitchers in their rotation to go along with strikeout gurus Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee. Lannan is a cheap replacement for Vance Worley, and he's only under contract for one year. For Lannan, this contract means an chance at redemption. A chance to show every team that he can still pitch, and that the Nationals were fools for relegating him to triple A. Citizens Bank park is a home run friendly venue, but doesn't lend itself to lots of other extra base hits, so if Lannan can keep the ball on the ground and in the park, he should perform well in 2013)

The free agent market looks to be shaping up. With Hamilton off of the market it is only a matter of time before Nick Swisher, Cody Ross, and Michael Bourn have new contracts. Multiple teams still need outfielders and those are three very good ones. Pitching-wise, with Greinke and Sanchez signing contracts, teams will begin to scramble to complete their starting rotations with those pitchers left on the market. In my next column, I'll look at the two, and soon to be three big trades made since the end of Baseball's Winter Meetings.

Recent Movement: Part 1

2012-12-15T12:24:00.001-08:00

Baseball's Winter Meetings may be over, but it doesn't mean the shopping has stopped. We are only a few weeks away from the biggest gift giving time of the year, and it seems like Baseball's general managers have gotten the message. Recently, a number of big names have found new homes, and I have taken it upon myself to evaluate these deals. So, let's get started.

Greinke In Dodger Blue

Dodgers sign Zack Greinke to a 6-year $147 million contract: Yes, the moment we were all waiting for. Greinke represented the largest domino out there; once he signed, we would see every other pitcher on the market begin signing contracts. Greinke's contract makes him the highest paid right-handed pitcher ever, and the contract's average annual value of $24.5 million surpasses the C.C. Sabathia's $24.4 million AAV as the record for a pitcher on a multiyear contract. The Dodgers had money to spend, and they went for the gold. Greinke joins Josh Beckett and Clayton Kershaw atop the Dodgers rotation, giving them a solid 1-2-3- punch that every playoff team needs. Greinke's contract will take him through his age 34 season, which means the Dodgers will get Greinke's production before it begins to seriously slip due to age. PECOTA forecasts Greinke's future value as such:

	WARP
2013	3.5
2014	3.5
2015	3.4
2016	3.1
2017	2.9
2018	2.6
Average	3.17
Median	3.25

If we extrapolate those forecasts to value in dollars, this deal should benefit both Greinke and the Dodgers. Greinke has proven he can pitch in both the American League (Kansas City Royals and LA Angels) and the National League (Milwaukee Brewers). There is little to say about Greinke's production or this contract, as it seems as though both sides accomplished their respective goals. Greinke becomes a very very rich man who will be in annual contention to make the playoffs, and the Dodgers acquired the top-tier starting pitcher they needed to complement fellow ace Clayton Kershaw, making a big splash with their newfound deep pockets. The Dodgers and Rangers were both vying for Greinke's services, but the Dodgers came out on top. Choosing LA over Texas makes sense for Greinke given that Dodger Stadium ranks tied for the 25th least hitter friendly park in the majors (Park factor of 0.867) while the Ballpark in Arlington ranks as the 4th most hitter friendly park in the league (Park factor of 1.183).

My Grade: A (Greinke and the Dodgers both wanted this union. The Dodgers look to have paid a reasonable amount, while Greinke made a solid career choice, choosing a more hitter friendly home park over the exact opposite.)

Pirates sign RHP Jason Grilli to a 2-year $6.75 million contract: The most fascinating part of this deal is that former MLB outfielder Gary Sheffield represents Jason Grilli. Apart from that aesthetic aspect of this deal, the Pirates sured up their bullpen by bringing back the 33rd best reliever in MLB in 2012 according to Fangraphs calculation of Wins Above Replacement. For comparison's sake, let's look at both Jonathan Broxton and Raphael Soriano, who ranked just better than Grilli last season. Soriano remains a free agent, but he did turn down a qualifying offer ($13.5 million/1 season) to test the waters for more money, showing that he thinks his services are worth more than $13.5 million per season. Broxton recently signed a 3-year $21 million contract with the Reds, which puts his worth at about $7 million per season. Grilli's new contract will net him about $7 million over two years. See the difference? The Pirates made out great here.

	IP	K/9	BB/9	LOB%	FIP	WAR
Jonathan Broxton	58	6.98	2.64	79.2%	3.03	1.3
Rafael Soriano	67.2	9.18	3.19	88.0%	3.32	1.2
Jason Grilli	58.2	13.81	3.38	82.8%	2.8	1.1

The pirates retain a veteran back end of the bullpen pitcher who strikes out hitters at a great rate, and does a good job of keeping base runners from scoring. Grilli is durable, putting up the same number of innings pitched as Broxton who is 8 years Grilli's junior.

My Grade: A- (The Pirates are taking a chance on an older reliever who has never posted K/9 numbers like he did in 2012. It probably points toward some regression, but even still, this is a very team friendly contract. Given the Pirates young arms in the rotation, giving Clint Hurdle a reliable righty in the pen is a solid move.)

Twins sign RHP Kevin Correia to a 2-year $10 million contract: This deal isn't a blockbuster, but I'm sure we can find something interesting here. Correia is a replacement level pitcher who has the ability to "eat innings". Correia was lucky to get a 2-year contract given his less than stellar production over the last few years, but if any team were to sign the veteran, the Twins make some sense. While many of us think of Target Field as a pitcher's park, in reality it is the 10 best hitter's park in the Majors. This means that Correia's numbers could take even a greater turn for the worse in Minnesota. He'll be pitching in a hitter friendly park while simultaneously moving from the NL to the AL. This deal heavily favors Correia since he'll be getting paid an AAV of $5 million, which equates to about 0.9 wins per season, a number, that given his recent production, will prove difficult for Correia to achieve. On the other hand, if Correia puts up solid first half numbers in 2013, he could be a perfect trade deadline candidate as he has a team friendly deal with a full year of control for 2014. If his production continues to decline, the Twins have essentially signed a place holder until recently acquired young pitchers like Trevor May and Alex Meyer are ready to play big-league ball.

My Grade: C- (A lot of ifs are involved here. He could turn out to be a valuable asset, but too much of the evidence points towards the opposite. Correia is making way more money than he's likely to be worth, so from his side, this deal is an A.)

Kevin Youkilis

Yankees sign 3B Kevin Youkilis to a 1-year $12 million contract: It was no surprise to anyone when the rumors came in about the Yankees being in hot pursuit of Kevin Youkilis. Youkilis represented the best free agent option at third base, and with Yankees 3B Alex Rodriguez out for at least the first half of 2013, the Yankees would settle for nothing less than the best available option. Last season the Red Sox replaced Youkilis with a younger model, but shipped him off to the Windy City. In Chicago, Youkilis got back on track, returning from an injury to post solid numbers (109 wRC+, .339 wOBA, and .188 ISO). PECOTA projects Youkilis to return to his former self, 3.9 WARP, .303 TAv, and .374 OBP. Youk, known as the "Greek God of Walks", has always provided value by getting on base at well above average rates, while providing enough power to compensate for his utter lack of speed. The Yankees gain a versatile veteran who gets on base, and might produce more value than a healthy A-rod would. Youkilis is looking to show the league that he hasn't lost a step despite a down year in 2012, hoping to net himself a multi-year contract beginning in 2014.

My Grade: B+ (This deal works for both sides. Honestly, the Yankees should have made a longer commitment to Youkilis. A-rod is as close to a sunk cost as a player can get, and if Youkilis can replace Rodriguez for the next 3 seasons, it might seriously benefit the Yanks. This deal gives the Bronx Bombers some options, as Cashman and company can let Youkilis go after 2013 and either make a deal for another third baseman, or risk going with A-Rod in the future. Youkilis gets a healthy contract, looking to justify a multi-year deal going into 2014.)

Ichiro Suzuki

Yankees sign OF Ichiro Suzuki to 2-year $13 million contract: At 39 years old, Ichiro is not the superstar he once was, but he's still a viable MLB outfielder. After performing miserably at the plate in Seattle last year, Ichiro resurrected his hitting production in NYC, going from a .261/.288/.353 slash line as a Mariner to a .322/.340/.454 slash line in pinstripes. The biggest difference in Ichiro's approach to the plate between his time in Seattle and New York in 2012 was that in NYC, Ichiro became more selective. His swing percentage dropped from 49.8% to 46.6%, which caused an increase in hitter's counts. By becoming more selective, Ichiro saw more fastballs, and thus began to put the ball in play in places that allowed him to reach base safely. He his more home runs in New York (thank you short porch), and hit the ball on the ground more often, causing his infield hit percentage to double. The biggest drop off between his play on the west coast and his play on the east was Ichiro's defense. He posted a +13 DRS in Seattle while compiling a well below average -7 DRS playing in the New York outfield. This is a wild swing in defensive abilities, but given the difference in total plays made between Ichiro in Seattle and in New York, the difference in defensive efficiency can be explained by a massive difference in sample size. In the few plays Ichiro made in New York, he didn't perform well, but had he made 4 times as many plays, his top-notch defense would have shown through. The Yankees don't have a proven lead off hitter, but the combination of Brett Gardner, Derek Jeter, and now Ichiro Suzuki should serve as suitable fill-ins. The most surprising part of the deal is that Ichiro found a contract offer for more than 1-year, but after rumors surfaced that the Phillies has offered Ichiro a similar contract, the Yankees were forced to pony up an extra year in order to retain Ichiro's services.

My Grade: B (The Yankees get a cheap option to play the outfield well who uses his speed and savvy to get on base and create runs. Ichiro got the ever illusive 2nd year despite being 29 years old. This isn't a perfect deal since Ichiro's age points towards a decrease in future production, and the Yankees have other needs to fill.)

Reds sign 3B Jack Hannahan to a 2-year $4 million contract: This isn't a biggie, but it is worth noting. The Reds recently acquired Shin-Soo Choo from the Indians via trade, but with the likelihood of the Indians bringing back Scott Rolen decreasing by the second, Hannahan makes a find replacement. Hannahan is a solid defender at third base, putting up a positive DRS in all 5 of his MLB seasons. On the other hand, FRAA, used by Baseball Prospectus, shows that Hannahan has always been a top defender, posting a 16.1 and 10.9 FRAA in 2011 and 2012 respectively. As far as back-up infielders go, Hannahan will serve the Reds well. Hannahan's splits show a huge disparity between his ability to hit right-handed pitching over left-handed pitching. Hannahan posted a 100 wRC+ vs. RHP last season, but an abysmal 40 wRC+ against left-handers. Look for the Reds to put Hannahan in the starting lineup when the Reds run up against right-handers.

My Grade: B+ (I like this deal for both sides. Hannahan was essentially left out to dry by the Indians, but Cleveland is all about rebuilding at the moment, and a solid platoon third baseman would only take up a roster spot for the Indians. For the Reds, Hannahan represents half the answer at the hot corner. Hannahan will platoon with Todd Frazier, an up and comer for the Reds on the left-side of the infield.)

That's all for this edition of free-agent frenzy, join us next time when we discuss the Josh Hamilton signing, as well as others.

Getting Younger, Well, Not Exactly

2012-12-08T14:02:00.002-08:00

Michael Young

Today, the Philadelphia Phillies acquired Texas Rangers 3rd baseman Michael Young in exchange for right-handed pitcher Josh Lindblom and minor league reliever Lisalverto Bonilla. Supposedly, this deal was made 2-3 days ago, but the teams had to wait to make it official due to Young's no-trade clause. Today, Young waived the clause, after negotiating $1.2 million more on top of his contract, to compensate for the state tax difference between Texas and Pennsylvania. The Phillies have Young signed for 2013 but not beyond that. The Rangers seriously wanted Young gone, which is unsurprising given Young's recent complains concerning the loss of his starting job. The Rangers will pay $10 million of Young's $16 million salary for 2013 so he can play third base for the Phillies.

So, what are the Phillies getting in this deal? Is it the Michael Young who had 5 consecutive 200+ hit seasons, the comeback kid who compiled 213 hits as a 34 year old, or last season's -1.4 win player who seemed to have fall off the age curve cliff? Young has spent his entire career in Texas, and leaves the team as the franchise leader in hits, games played, and doubles. Fortunately for the Phillies, Citizens Bank Park and the Ballpark in Arlington are two of the most hitter friendly parks in Major League Baseball, thus Young shouldn't experience any drop off due to a park change. Young's career has been built on his ability to hit for average, but unfortunately, not much else. Young's .147 career ISO has more to do with his ability to hit doubles rather than any significant home run power, and he has a below average career BB% at 6.6% compared to the 2012 league average of 8.0%. On the other hand, Young consistently racks up the hits, and unless there is a significant drop off in swing speed or the ability to make contact with pitches in the zone, the hits should continue to come.

	Young	League Avg
Contact %	79.90%	85.90%
SwStr%	9.10%	7.10%
Z-Contact%	87.20%	89.80%

As you can see, even in his worst season in the big leagues, Young continued to make well above average contact, make better than average contact on pitches in the strike zone, and accumulate as many swinging strikes as the average player in 2012. So what went wrong? Young's 2012 season marked his lowest in terms of BB%, batting average on balls in play, and OPS+. Given Young's consistently below average BB% throughout his career, seeing him walk even less isn't something to worry about, but his .299 BABIP could be an issue. The low BABIP derived from his increased ground ball percentage coupled with an attrition in his fly ball percentage. If Young can get a bit more lift on the ball this year, Phillies fans shouldn't be surprised to see him return to some semblance of his 2011 self. It might be unreasonable to assume or even forecast Young's power to return, but getting the ball in the air more can lead to more extra-base hits.

Other than Young's on-field production, this move makes a lot of sense for the Phillies. The Phillies have most of their payroll wrapped up in 4 players (Howard, Halladay, Lee, and Hamels), and while many thought Ruben Amaro would spend frivolously on free agents, instead he has adroitly acquired necessary parts via trades. In doing so, the Phillies retain the ability to make a move on the free agents who remain. This move opens up options for RAJ; allowing him to go after a corner outfielder like Cody Ross or Nick Swisher as well as top of the line bullpen help like Peter Moylan, Jon Rauch, or Mike Adams. In addition, it allows the Phillies to go after a high-risk high reward starting pitcher like Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jair Jurrjens, or John Lannan. Young isn't perfect, but he shouldn't be as bad as last season. Combining his skills at the plate with Kevin Frandsen's slightly above-averaged fielding will make for a viable option at third base, and a suitable replacement for the departing Placido Polanco, while waiting for prospect Cody Asche to mature.

The Rangers have a good young prospect in Mike Olt primed to take over the hot corner, which made Young expendable. Couple Young's age, diminishing production, and desire to start together and you get the perfect candidate for a trade. The Rangers picked up two relief pitchers from the Phillies. Josh Lindblom, who the Phillies received from Los Angeles in the trade that made Shane Victorino a Dodger, and all Lindblom did was finish dead last in wins amongst all Major League Relievers (-1.1). Lindblom's high BB/9 of 4.44, low GB% at 35.8%, and high HR/FB % of 15.7% show that he can't keep the ball in in the strike zone, but when he does, it has a tendency to fly out of the park. These stats show a pitcher who won't give up solo home runs, but instead will allow 2-run and 3-run home runs due to his propensity to allow base runners. While all of these are correctable, Lindblom now enters an even more home run friendly park, which doesn't bode well for the young righty.

Lisalverto Bonilla

The scouting report on Lisalverto Bonilla is that he has performed much better as a reliever than as a starter. Even since moving the bullpen Bonilla's FIP has fallen due to more strikeouts and fewer home runs. He still walks too many hitters, which means that if Rangers see an increase in home runs given up they will also see worse overall results from Bonilla. According to the scouting report at Phuture Phillies, Bonilla has a good fastball with great changeup, giving him a good pitch combination for a late inning reliever who can get out righties with regularity. At 22 years old, if Bonilla can put up similar numbers over twice the number of innings, he could become a full-time big leaguer by 2014.

Overall, from the Phillies side, this trade was slightly reassuring. Michael Young isn't the answer long-term, and he might not even be the full-time answer at third base this season, but given the abysmal market for third baseman this offseason, Amaro should feel proud of this move. He has many options as far as what to do next, but going after either Nick Swisher or Cody Ross seems logical. PECOTA expects Young to put up 1.2 wins next season, which would be worth about $9 million, 33% more than what the Phillies will pay Young in 2013. The Bill James projections also see a return to semi-normalcy for Young, predicting a .330 wOBA, 176 hits, and a .343 on base percentage.
My Grade: A- (Phillies now have an option at third, and didn't increase payroll, while the Rangers get a possible future set-up man and clear room for Mike Olt at 3rd)

Winter Meetings: Day 4

2012-12-06T16:42:00.000-08:00

Ahhhh, the end of the week. Time to kick back, relax, maybe knock back a few. Well, maybe for most people. Those who remain in Nashville, Tennessee for Baseball's Winter Meetings see Thursday and Friday of this week as crunch time. Remember though, last year we were a bit spoiled. Huge names moved at last year's winter meetings, but this year the opposite happened. Josh Hamilton, still a free agent. Zack Greinke, still a free agent. Michael Bourn, still a free agent. Nonetheless, every day multiple moves were made, teams satisfied, players happy, and fans left shaking their heads. Let's check in on day 4 and see what went down.

"Big" Joe Blanton

Los Angeles Angels sign Joe Blanton to 2-year $15 million contract: This deal came in late last night. The immediate reaction on Twitter was that this deal was stupid, ineffective, and most likely an overpay. Blanton is what we in the business call an innings eater. He is effectively league average, but isn't injury prone, and doesn't implode to the point at which he has to be rushed off the field lest an arrant piece of flying fruit from an angry fan hits him in the face. Blanton throws strikes, plays to contact, and gets sneaky strikeouts with pitches like tailing fastballs and circle change ups. Given Blanton's makeup, there is one particular statistic to watch. That is BB/9. When Blanton isn't walking hitters, but instead pounding the strike zone, he provides his team much more value. Sure, he'll probably give up some more home runs, but a solo home run here or there isn't a bad thing when compared to 3-run home runs due to back-to-back walks. Blanton's title is back of the rotation starter, and with Jared Weaver and C.J. Wilson at the top of the Halos staff, that's all Jerry Dipoto is looking for from Big Joe. $7.5 million per season is a little steep, so I can't say the Angels did a sneaky-good job here, but if Blanton can put up better numbers than either Dan Haren or Ervin Santana, this deal will look a lot better 10 months from now.
My Grade: B (No, not B for Blanton, but B for average, which is the exact title this signing entails)

Cubs sign Nate Schierholtz to 1-year 2.25 million contract: I won't spend much time on this other than to say that my gut is telling me that Nate Schieholtz won't be a Cub come August, 2013. Nate was non-tendered by the Phillies after they received him in the Hunter Pence Deal. The Phillies need outfielders and didn't resign him, but did so to the chagrin of the Cubs. According to both PECOTA and Bill James' projections, Schierholtz is in line for a bounce-back season in which he'll probably provide league average offense form the outfield. From a fielding point of view, Schierholtz's range seems to be declining a bit in addition to his ability to make plays that average outfielders can't make. So, Wrigley Field could make Schierholtz look better than he is. If so, he will be moved at the trade deadline for some prospect that Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer most likely already have in mind.
My Grade: B+ (Can only be good for the Cubs, and for Schierholtz it didn't matter where he signed, he needs to put up good numbers to be coveted at all next offseason)

Ben Revere

Twins trade outfielder Ben Revere to the Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for RHP Vance Worley and RHP Trevor May: This was the big move of the day. As a Phillies fan, expect me to spend some time analyzing this deal. Okay, so first from the Phillies side. Ruben Amaro has finally made a deal that makes logical sense. Ben Revere is a 24-year-old center fielder who is under team control through 2017. Given the fact that the Phillies current infield has an average age of 32.5 years old, adding a 24-year old isn't a bad idea. Next, take a look at these numbers:

	2011	2012
wRC+	71	88
wOBA	0.278	0.300
fWAR	2.0	3.4

Okay, something's wrong here. Revere has been worth an average of 2.7 wins over the last two years, but his run creation is below average in addition to subpar overall offensive productions. The reason for these odd numbers is that Revere does his work with his legs. Here's his "legs" numbers:

	2011	2012
UZR	10.0	16.4
FRAA	-2.0	1.9
DRS	-3	8
SB	34	40
UBR	3.5	3.6
fWAR	2.0	3.4

Essentially, Revere is a defensive beast in center field, covering incredible amounts of ground, with average arm. In addition, when Revere reaches base he is a distinct threat to steal second, and even third. Revere's UBR shows that he runs the bases with solid aptitude and efficiency, something that fellow Phillies Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins have been doing for years. Revere gets on base at just above the league average (.333 in 2012), bunts for hits (34.6% BUH%), and makes contact at the plate (92.2% contact %). Essentially, Revere does everything you would want from a young leadoff hitter aside from his BB%. All Revere needs to do to become Michael Bourn at age 24 is to see some more pitches (3.61 pitches seen per plate appearance in 2012, which was 16 worst in the American League), and walk a bit more (5.2 BB% in 2012 compared to a league average 8.0% BB%). Often times though, plate discipline comes with maturity, and at 24 years old, we can expect Revere to mature a bit. From the Twins point of view, they have now traded 2 outfielders without power for 3 pitchers. Worley is a typical #4 starter, and will play well at Target Field, since he pitches to contact and the park in Minnesota is quite vast. Trevor May was considered the Phillies top-pitching prospect going into 2012, but the Phillies have a number of prospects similar to May, thus making Trevor expendable. The Phillies retain Brody Colvin, Jonathan Pettibone, and especially Jessie Biddle, and get an MLB ready, defensive stud in center field in return. Anyone in Philadelphia who is sad to see May go needs to look at themselves in the mirror because while May might end up as a #3 starter, the Phillies have more of those guys.

My Grade: A (The Phillies get exactly what they want, the Twins get a substantial return, it is a win-win)

Koji Uehara

Red Sox sign Koji Uehara to a 1-year $4.25 million contract: Koji Uehara spent the last two seasons in Baltimore and Texas, doing a good job out of the pen. Koji has sported an average of 1.7 wins per season over the last 4 seasons, which is fairly substantial for a relief pitcher given the minute number of innings relievers throw in comparison to starters. Uehara dominates right-handed batters, and fairs incredibly well against lefties due to his split-fingered change up. Here are Uehara's splits from last season:

	FIP	BB/9	K/9	GB/FB
vs. LH	3.09	0.47	9.95	0.73
vs. RH	1.62	1.06	11.65	0.55

These numbers show that the Japanese reliever dominates righties by striking them out, and gets lefties out by playing to contact, a combination destined to produce good results out of the pen. I saw Uehara as one of the best relievers on the market, and based on this contract, if Koji puts up the same numbers in 2013 as he put up in 2012, the Red Sox will have gotten a solid deal.

My Grade: A- (Good deal for both teams, only issue is that teams who are more likely to be in playoff contention missed out on Uehara. If the Red Sox don't project to make the playoffs by the trade deadline, look for Ben Cherington to trade Uehara to a team in need.)

Braves resign OF Reed Johnson to a 1-year contract, financials unknown: Without the dollar amount given, the analysis cannot be as accurate, but I'll give it a whirl. Reed Johnson is the perfect 4th outfielder. He plays hard, is great in the clubhouse, and has been worth an average of ~ 1.1 wins per season throughout his 11 year career. The Braves have 2/3 of their outfield settled, and Johnson makes a great signing to platoon at that third third of the outfield. Johnson was originally acquired by the Braves via the Chicago Cubs along with Paul Maholm at the 2012 trade deadline, and the Braves saw enough to want to keep Johnson around. Johnson is the older form of Nate Schierholtz, and if the Braves have given him a similar contract, they are probably getting a good deal. The most interesting thing about Johnson is that, according to pitch f/x data, he doesn't have a problem hitting any pitch in the strike zone at an average rate. Oftentimes, batters are susceptible to pitches in certain parts of the plate, but Johnson seems to hit pitches all over the strike zone at the same rate (about 57%). This makes for a good pinch-hitter.

My Grade: B (Good for both sides, but not great.)

So, day 4 of the Winter Meetings didn't prove to be exciting, or even as exciting as the first three days. The Phillies/Twins trade proved to be the most interesting move of the day, and in all honesty, it wasn't mind blowing. The surprising part of that deal was Ruben Amaro's willingness to make a sensible move instead of a flashy move, something that should make Phillies fans happy, hopeful, but still a bit skeptical. Hamilton, Greinke, and Michael Bourn remain free agents, but there is a lot of offseason to go before pitchers and catchers report. Once Zack Greinke signs, the other pitchers on the market like Ryan Dempster, Anibal Sanchez, Kyle Lohse, and Shaun Marcum should sign quickly, but until Zack decides, those pitcher will most likely remain unemployed.

The winter meetings this year were not filled with the huge moves of the past, which were replaced with ridiculous and constant rumors. Will Justin Upton be traded? My guess is yes, but never attempt to predict what Kevin Towers will do, he's proven to be unpredictable in the past. The winners of the winter meetings have to be the Boston Red Sox who have signed multiple players that could all be valuable in the next 2-3 years, which isn't an unreasonable timetable for the Sox to become relevant once again. Overall, it's been a fun 4 days, the hope is that the next 2 months will prove just as fascinating.

Winter Meetings: Day 3

2012-12-05T15:22:00.002-08:00

Days 1 and 2 of Baseball's Winter Meetings in Nashville, Tennessee saw a number of players find new homes. Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino joined the Red Sox, James Loney became a Ray, Dan Haren switched coasts going from LA to D.C., and Joakim Soria moved south from Kansas City to the Texas Rangers. In addition, Angel Pagan resigned with the San Francisco Giants, solidifying the Giant's outfield. As you have already realized the biggest names aren't on this list. No Josh Hamilton, Zack Greinke, or Michael Bourn. Well, eventually those names will sign, but for now, let's go over who made a deal since yesterday evening.

Marco Scutaro

Giants sign Marco Scutaro to a 3-year $20 million contract: This marks the third player the Giants have resigned with Jeremy Affeldt and Angel Pagan being the first two. The Giants recently won the World Series, and given the state of their starting pitching, the team knows that the next 2-3 seasons mark their best chance to win again. Given that theory, it seems logical for the team to resign the players that helped them win in 2012 to contracts that cover no more than the next 4 years. Scutaro and Pagan represent the top of the Giants lineup, the players who get on base for MVP Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval, and Hunter Pence to knock in. Scutaro has averaged 2.7 wins according to Baseball Prospectus over the last 6 seasons, and according to BP's forecasting system PECOTA, he should be worth ~ 2 wins over the next 2 years, with a drop off in the third year. This contract seems to be as much about getting value from Scutaro as it is paying him for helping the franchise win it's second World Series since moving to the bay. Scutaro was a tale of two players last season, posting a 75 wRC+ with Colorado, but 137 wRC+ with the Giants. Scutaro posted the highest OPS and wOBA of his career while with the Giants, but that also the highest BABIP of his career. There's a fairly good chance Scutaro's performance in San Fran last season was a mix of his numbers returning to their usual ways, combined with some extra luck. Overall, this contract is deserved, even though some sabermetricians might tell you it is a bit of an overpay (by $4-5 million). Scutaro became a fan favorite quickly in San Fran, and with the coming influx of about $25 million due to a TV deal, this deal makes plenty of sense.
My Grade: B+ (above average signing, but neither side pulled off a steal)

Rockies trade Alex White and Alex Gillingham to the Houston Astros in exchange for pitcher Wilton Lopez: This deal came a bit out of the blue. The Rockies had been rumored to be looking for bullpen pitchers (possibly to trade at the deadline seeing as the Rockies aren't winning anything in 2013), and this is exactly the type of pitcher who could garner something useful at the trade deadline. White and Gillingham are both young pitchers, and given the Astros need to stockpile young arms, this deal definitely makes sense for Houston. Lopez has been very good recently, putting up great GB%. When he isn't throwing his hard sinker for ground balls, Lopez's pitches almost always hit the strike zone. If not for arm injury problems, Lopez would be considered a top bullpen arm, and more high-profile teams would covet him.
My Grade: C (This one doesn't make much sense unless the Rockies can flip Lopez at the trade deadline for better prospects than White and Gillingham)

Rays acquire Yunel Escobar from the Marlins in exchange for minor leaguer Derek Deitrich: The Rays use trades far more often than free agency to acquire players, so a trade involving the Rays at the Winter Meetings is not unwarranted. Shortstop Yunel Escobar began the offseason as part of the Toronto Blue Jays before being traded as part of the mega-deal to the Miami Marlins, and now he's moved across Florida to Tampa Bay. The Rays had numerous needs to fill this offseason, and Escobar is one piece in that yet unfinished puzzle. While Ben Zobrist plays a very good shortstop, the Rays would rather move him between 2nd base and the outfield, so trading for a shortstop was a more logical move than going after an outfielder. On the field, Escobar shouldn't disappoint. Yunel has averaged 3.1 wins according to Fangraphs throughout his 6-year career. He played above average defense, runs the bases fairly well, and gets on base (.353 career OBP). What makes Escobar valuable is the combination of his high OBP, high contact percentage (career-85.5% avg-81.0%), and low 2012 BABIP. His BABIP should regress toward .300, and if we combine that with his ability to make contact, Escobar's wOBA should return to its previous levels (2012-.284 career-.331). Escobar's immaturity as a person might cause some issues, but the Rays have never shied away from talented players with character issues. Deitrich is a 2nd base prospect with solid upside. According to scouting reports and MiLB numbers, Deitrich hits for average, but lacks the pop that many thought he possessed in the past. A poor man's Chase Utley isn't out of his future, and given the Marlins lack of MLB ready players, he may get to play in the majors very soon.
My Grade: A- (Rays get exactly what they need, albeit with character flaws, while the Marlins continue to stock pile young players)

Jeff Keppinger

White Sox sign Jeff Keppinger to a 3-year $12 million contract: Ah, Jeff Keppinger. Keppinger has been as volatile of a player as there is in Major League Baseball. He plays well one year, and abysmal the next. Some of that is probably due to his high ridiculously high contact rate (career- 92.8%), ability to hit left-handed pitching far better than right-handed pitching (.396 wOBA off of lefties in 2012, .333 off of righties), and complete lack of power. Keppinger provides a lot of value in very specific areas, making him a a hot commodity. Numerous teams needed third basemen this offseason, and while Keppinger was seen as a lesser option in comparison to Kevin Youkilis, he's better than a lot of the other options. If Keppinger puts up 1 win per season he'll make the White Sox look good, a distinct possibility even given a probable regression in his statistics going into 2013. According to PECOTA the $12 million Kep will receive over the next three seasons is just about right. Moreover, this move allows the White Sox to get more creative, especially in the trade market. General Managers have checklists just like everyone else, and filling the hole at 3rd base was atop Chisox GM Rick Hahn's list this offseason. Keppinger obviously wanted the security of a 3-year deal more than a higher average annual salary because I think he could have found a 2-year contract for $12 million if he wanted.
My Grade: B+ (A- for the White Sox and B for Keppinger)

Orioles resign Nate McLouth to a 1-year $2 million contract: While McLouth was receiving attention from a number of teams; he decided to resign with the team that took a chance on him last season. Loyalty can be beneficial or stupid, but in this case it should prove productive. The Orioles spent the equivalent of pennies on McLouth and they won't ask him to do more than hit off of right-handed pitching, something he does fairly well, and play solid defense either corner outfield position. Here are McLouth's splits:

	vs. LHP	vs. RHP
wRC+	63	99
wOBA	0.267	0.318
ISO	0.091	0.155

Unfortunately, according to UZR and FRAA, McLouth isn't a good defender, but DRS has him as a league average defender, something the Orioles can deal with in a platoon player. One thing to note, McLouth did hit well in high leverage situations last season, posting a 0.34 clutch. Finally, as an Orioles fan friend of mine said in reaction to this deal, "Good fit, club presence, inexpensive contract, played GREAT for us down the stretch. What's not to like?"

My Grade: C+ (O's spend little, but aren't getting much. McLouth doesn't have to fight for a job and can prove himself)

Eric Chavez

Diamondbacks sign catcher Wil Nieves to 1-year $500K contract and sign 3B Eric Chavez to 1-year $3 million contract: One of these moves was expected while the other wasn't. Don't worry, I won't keep you guessing. Nieves was Miguel Montero's backup last year, and for the equivalent of 0.1 wins, a catcher familier with the Dbacks staff returns for 2013. Eric Chavez signing with the Diamondbacks caught me by surprise. The Diamondbacks traded for Chris Johnson in 2012, but after seeing him play for 2 months discovered that Johnson cannot hit right-handed pitching. Herein lies the problem because Johnson actually hit far better against righties than lefties.

	vs. LHP	vs. RHP
wRC+	77	120
wOBA	0.29	0.352
ISO	0.129	0.186

These numbers are very odd for a right-handed hitter, making this move a complete head scratcher. Chavez barely took swings against anyone but a right-handed pitcher last season causing his splits to be completely ridiculous. The only thing Chavez does that Johnson doesn't is play good defense. This leads me to believe that when ground ball pitchers like Wade Miley start for the Dbacks you will see Chavez at the hot corner, but when other pitchers take the hill, we can expect to see Johnson playing third base. I can't tell which is more odd, Chris Johnson's splits or the fact that the Dbacks signed Eric Chavez just for his defense. You decide.

My Grade: D (If someone has a better explanation than mine as to why the Dbacks made this move, I'd love to hear it)

Mariners sign Jason Bay to a 1-year contract worth under $1 million: What do Jason Bay, Michael Vick, and Troy Aikman all have in common. All three have had concussion issues. The difference between Bay and the other two athletes mentioned is that he plays Baseball, not Football. Bay is still the only Pirate to ever win the rookie of the year award, and he played really well for the Red Sox replacing Manny Ramirez, but as a Met Jason Bay failed miserably. The Mets still owe Bay $21 million after releasing him, so money wasn't an issue in signing a contract from the Bay's point of view. The Mariners don't need Bay, but if he somehow makes a comeback, there might be a lot of teams looking to acquire him at the trade deadline. If he has concussion issues, and or doesn't play well, the Mariners can take solace in the fact that they aren't the team paying him millions of dollars.

My Grade: C (Bay has a chance to prove he can still play, and both he and the Mariners hope he does)

The St. Louis Cardinals sign Randy Choate to a 3-year $7.5 million contract: Prior to this signing, reliever Brandon League received a 3-year $21 million contract and Joakim Soria signed a 2-year $8 million contract. So, why did Randy Choate get League-like years and Soria-like money? Well, first of all, Choate is a lefty specialist, so $7.5 million is actually a nice haul. The Cardinals rarely make bad signings, even if not all the players the sign turn out to be stars, so let's give them the benefit of the doubt. Also, Choate is actually great at his job. Against left-handed batters, Choate put up a 25.9 K%, 7.8 BB%, 2.72 FIP, and a .154 batting average against. Those are great numbers, but due to his inability to get righties out, his WAR numbers aren't great. Choate throws from a sidearm-like angle, making it very difficult for lefties to pick up his pitches, which can be extremely valuable, especially in high leverage situations (0.4 clutch in 2012).

My Grade: B+ ($2.5 million a year means that the Cardinals aren't paying much here, so kudos to them. As for Choate, he gets the unusual multi-year contract for a lefty specialist.)

Sean Burnett

Angels sign Sean Burnett to a 2-year for < $9.5 million: While we aren't clear on exactly how much money is involved in this deal, it looks to be just under $9.5 million. Burnett is what the Angels were looking for to solidify their bullpen. Burnett throws from an awkward angle from the left side, making him difficult on left-handed hitters, but unlike lefty specialists like Randy Choate, Burnett can pitch to righties without imploding. In the last 3 seasons, Burnett has compiled 2.1 wins according to Fangraphs, which isn't bad for a relief pitcher. When you look at it more carefully, you see two great seasons and one subpar one. That volatility probably took Burnett out as a candidate for a 3-year deal like the ones given to Brandon League, Jeremy Affeldt, and Randy Choate, but his overall production out of the pen allowed Burnett to seek ~ $4.5 million per season. For the Angels, this deal looks great. After trading Jorden Walden, Jerry Dipoto went out and signed Ryan Madson and now Sean Burnett. For a GM who doesn't want to designate anyone as a closer, both of these signings make sense. While you're going to hear that Madson is the Angels closer, you will probably see 4 different pitchers close games for the Halos in 2013, and one of them will be Burnett. The Nationals have to hate to so Burnett go, but the Angels were willing to give him more than $4 million per season, and Burnett wasn't stupid enough to turn that down.

My Grade: A (Everything about this looks great, except for the possibility that Burnett regresses in 2013, but I'm sure that was something the Angels considered.)

This was a day of minor signings. Lots of 1-year deals, minor trades, and even more rumors. Rumors gaining significant steam include a possible multi-team trade involving Justin Upton, Zack Greinke getting the most lucrative contract ever signed by a pitcher to date, and that Jason Grilli is very close to a new deal. The Sean Burnett signing and Yunel Escobar trades are objectively the best moves made so far on day 3 of the Winter Meetings, but with 5+ hours remaining on this Wednesday, so much more could still happen.

Winter Meetings: Day 2

2012-12-04T17:19:00.000-08:00

Baseball's Winter Meetings in Nashville, Tennessee got off to a quick start yesterday with a number of free agent signings including Mike Napoli, Joakim Soria, Angel Pagan, and James Loney. No contract was signed that totaled more than $40 million, but each contract signing improved the club involved, and made the players involved all rich men with secure jobs, something the average American cannot claim. So, what happend in day 2?

Dan Haren

Washington Nationals sign Dan Haren to 1-year $13 million contract: The Nationals are always making headlines with their pitching. Most recently, the club traded young fireballer Alex Meyer to the Twins in exchange for center fielder Denard Span. That move opened up a lot of moves for the Nats involving position players, but while tons of rumors have been flying concerning Adam LaRoche and Michael Morse, it was the Nats rotation that got a boost on day 2. Haren, most recently rumored to have been traded from the Angels to the Cubs, should be happy about this deal. He has a chance to bounce back and prove he deserves a longer term deal going into 2014, while simultaneously making $13 million for one year's work. Haren's numbers last year were not good, and combined with a hip injury, he didn't look like a player who could garner more than $10 million for one season going into 2013. Haren projects well according to PECOTA due in large part to his recent history, which has been very good. Harne's drop in fastball velocity isn't a good sign, but the better pitcher learn to get around drops in velocity by throwing more strikes on the corners, and outsmarting hitters using pitch selection and movement. Here's the best part of this deal, Haren doesn't have the pressure on him that he could have had elsewhere. The Nationals may be a playoff contendor, but Haren isn't the 1st, 2nd, or even 3rd starter for D.C.'s team, he's 4th at best. If Haren can post the 3.51 FIP Bill James expects him to, he'll provide plenty of value to the Nats. The Nationals are paying a steep price here for someone trending the wrong way, but it's only for one year, and the Nationals, while built to win now, are also built to win in 2 years.
My Grade: B

Shane Victorino

Red Sox sign Shane Victorino to a 3-year $39 million contract: First of all, congrats to Shane on this contract. Victorino will receive 30% more money per season over the course of his deal with the Red Sox than Angel Pagan will receive in his deal with the Giants. So did the Red Sox overpay? The first reaction on Twitter was that this deal won't work out well for the Red Sox. Much of this reaction is based on Victorino's 2012 performance. After 4 straight seasons over 100 wRC+, Victorino managed only a 94 in that category. In addition, Vicctorino's .310 wOBA, .128 ISO, and 8.0% BB rate were all 5 year lows for the Flyin' Hawaiian. On the other hand, Vic stole 39 bases last season, and hit left-handed pitchers to the tune of a .391 wOBA. Shane's defense and base running remained fixtures of his overall value last season posting a 2.3 UBR, 2 DRS, and 4.4 UZR last season splitting time between the Phillies and the Dodgers. The reason this deal works well for the Red Sox isn't necessarily clear on the surface, so let's look deeper. Victorino hits better from the right side than the left, and what sits so obtrusively in left field at Fenway Park? If you guess the Green Monster, you would be correct. In order to get on base at Fenway, all a hitter needs to do is hit a ball off of the Green Monster, which is located only 320 or so feet away from home plate. Once Shane gets on base he is a threat to steal, allowing bigger bats like Johnny Gomes, David Ortiz, and Mike Napoli to knock him in. Defensively Victorino can play right field, and if the Red Sox decide to move Ellsbury at the trade deadline, Shane can move from right to center field. The Red Sox signed Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino for 3 years at a combined total of $78 million. B.J. Upton recently signed a 5-year $75.25 million contract. So the Sox get two older players for about the same amount of money as the Braves got Upton. Looks bad, but Victorino and Napoli are more projectable, whereas Upton was signed based a lot on unproven talent. Seems like the Red Sox are making smart signings, not flashy ones.
My Grade: B+ (Sure, this might not turn out the way the Red Sox want it to, but it gives them enough options to make me think it will work out well for both sides.)

As usual, hundreds of rumors for all sorts of players were thrown around today. Some included Diamondbacks young studs Tyler Skaggs and Trevor Bauer, while others concerned R.A. Dickey and Justin Upton. From what I can tell, the second that Zack Greinke works out a deal with either the Dodgers or the Rangers (currently the two likeliest candidates), we will see a lot more signings. The other interesting factoid is that Michael Bourn remains unsigned. A Scott Boras client, Bourn, like Prince Fielder last season could go another month without signing a contract, but my guess is that he ends up with a contract in the next 2 weeks. For more on the Winter Meetings, check out the Summerpastime Facebook page at www.facebook.com/SummerPastime or check out the Summerpastime Twitter feed at @summerpastime.

Winter Meetings: Day 1

2012-12-03T18:20:00.001-08:00

Today was day 1 of the infamous winter meetings. For those of you unaware, Baseball's winter meetings occur every year around the first week of December. It is a week full of most of Baseball's executives, reporters, agents, and coaches who gather in a hotel to perform a number of activities. Front offices look to improve their clubs, agents look to get their clients signed to lucrative deals, coaches give interviews, and reporters disseminate the mounds of information they compile.

This year the winter meetings are being held in Nashville, Tennessee at the Gaylord Osprey Hotel and Convention Center. In the past, the meetings have lacked the fanfare that has more recently become commonplace, but due to the high profile free agents, infinite number of possible trades, and most importantly the MILLIONS, and I capitalize that word for a reason, of dollars thrown around, Baseball's Winter Meetings have become the event of the offseason.

So, let's recap a bit of the action we have already witnessed on just the opening day of the meetings.

Mike Napoli

Red Sox sign C/1B Mike Napoli to a 3-year $39 million contract: First, at this year's winter meetings, this is Ben Cherington's Red Sox, not John Henry's Red Sox. By that I'm implying that Cherington now has the reins to the Red Sox horse, music to the ears of Red Sox fans sick of signings like Carl Crawford. With Cherington making mostly autonomous decisions, his front office penned Mike Napoli to a three-year contract with an average annual salary of $13 million. Napoli played the last 2 years for the Texas Rangers, catching, playing a bit of first base, and DHing for Ron Washington's club. In 7 seasons, Napoli has been worth 20 wins according to Fangraphs, 16.8 wins according to Baseball-Reference, and 21.2 wins according to Baseball Prospectus. He's a versitile player, having the ability to both catch and play first base. The Red Sox already signed David Ross to a 2-year deal, and retain both Ryan Lavarnway and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, so why would the team make this deal? First, the Red Sox needed a first baseman, so if their plan is to have Napoli (-4 DRS at catcher, 0 DRS at 1st base) at first base, this seems like a good deal as far as that position is concerned. If the team expects Napoli to catch even 50 games, it points towards Cherington compiling as much catching talent as possible in a market where few catchers remain with numerous teams looking for catchers. Essentially, it allows the team to trade someone like Saltalamacchia or Lavarnway for a better return than they would regularly see. Napoli is a masher; he hits for power, and is patient at the plate (.248 career ISO, .356 career OBP). Bottom line is, the Red Sox got a solid player at a position they needed for a reasonable contract.
My grade: B+ (could become an A if the team can move Saltalamacchia for a decent prospect)

Pagan

Giants sign Angel Pagan to a 4-year $40 million contract: Pagan had been quite the enigma in Baseball circles in that he has previously been traded for Andres Torres, but he's also put up 3 seasons of 2.9 wins or more (Fangraphs). Due to the Giants recent World Championship, Pagan is far more a household name than before, but many might be surprised at a $10 million annual average salary for a center fielder that had to compete with Michael Bourn, Josh Hamilton, B.J. Upton, and Shane Victorino in the center field market this offseason. On the other hand, just like Upton's recent signing with the Braves, this contract looks like a perfect fit. Pagan is 31, and might not be playing center field in 2 seasons, but the value he adds by getting on base, and adding more than a .400 slugging percentage gives him the potential to easily be worth 2.0 wins per season, which is the number he must achieve to justify his new average annual salary. The Phillies and Giants were said to be the two main players for Pagan, and not too surprisingly, Pagan resigned with the world champions. The Giants got a player that could play two solid seasons in center followed by 2 Melky Cabrera-like seasons in either corner spot, while doing a great job setting the table at the top of the Giants lineup. Sure, Pagan is set to regress a bit over the next few years, but if he can put up even 75% of his average annual production, we will look back on this deal as a steal for San Fran.
My Grade: A- (good for player, good for team, only randomness can screw with this one)

Joakim Soria

Ranger sign Joakim Soria to a 2-year $8 million contract: The Rangers have recently made it a priority to sure up their bullpen. This has a lot to do with affects their starting pitchers feel from the immensely hitter friendly ballpark in Arlington, and the team's desire to get solid talent for reasonable prices despite the drastically inflated market for relievers. Soria is coming off of his 2nd, yes I said 2nd, not first, reconstructive UCL surgery (commonly know as Tommy John Surgery). Soria is a 28-year-old righty reliever who has never had a season in which he didn't post at least a WARP, rWAR, or fWAR less than 1.0. That might not sound like much, but given the fact that relievers throw 30% of the innings that starters do, being worth $5 million a season is nothing to sneeze at. What surprises me here is the length of the deal, Rarely do pitchers coming off any arm surgery get more than a one-year deal, but Soria got 2 years. This bodes well for fellow free agent reliever Brian Wilson (also coming off of TJ Surgery), but also shows that the Rangers think Soria will return to his previous form. The average annual salary of $4 million per season represents the concerns the Rangers have, but more so, it shows just how inflated the market for relievers has gotten. With pitchers like Jonathan Broxton and Brandon League getting incredibly inflated deals for their given skill sets, the Rangers would rather go after an injury plagued player than with upside than a proven reliever for way too much money. Maybe if every team didn't employ the ridiculous pitcher for an inning bullpen system none of this would have happened.
My Grade: B (could be great, could be awful, not a lot to lose for the Rangers either way)

James Loney

Rays sign James Loney to a 1-year $2 million contract: This deal intrigued me a lot. I recently wrote about Loney's potential to be a serious bounce back candidate for next season. He has continued to get on base and play good defense, two things the Rays look for in their players. Due to the hype surrounding Loney when he played in LA, most see his recent production as putrid as opposed to average. In order to satisfy this deal, Loney needs to be worth ~ 0.3 wins (Fangraphs) at the end of the 2013 season. Bill James projects him to post a .319 wOBA, with a .337 OBP, and .127 ISO. PECOTA sees Loney as a 1.5 WARP player next season (worth more than $8 million), with a .345 OBP, and .143 ISO. The Rays have little money to spend, and usually pursue improvements in their club via trade and not free agency due to those financial constraints (come on Rays fans, support your team). In this case, the Rays got a steal. In an offseason in which Loney was in the top 4 in the 1st baseman market, Tampa irked out a deal in which they will essentially pay Loney pennies. One thing is for certain, Loney will play above average defense at first base, something he has done almost every season he's played. With a number of ground ball pitchers, and good infield defense, this can only further's the Rays' ability to subdue opposing offenses, even when the ball is put in play. I projected Loney to make more than $6 million for next season at a 1-year deal. He's getting less than 1/3 of that money in this deal. My Grade: A (The only person unhappy with this deal is Loney's agent?)

For more on the winter meetings, I recommend following www.mlbtraderumors.com or checking out Ken Rosenthal, John Paul Morosi, Buster Olney, or Tim Kurkjian on Twitter. Come back tomorrow for a recap of day 2 of the winter meetings.

Non-Tenders

2012-12-01T15:00:00.000-08:00

Recently I expounded on the idea of the qualifying offer. Baseball's offseason has so many intricacies, terms, and ideas that even an adept Baseball fan may not understand. The qualifying offer being one such term, and non-tendering being another. Recently teams made public the names of players that would be non-tendered, thus ending the relationship between the given team and those players, effectively making those players free agents.

Tendering a contract literally means offering a contract. So, a team that offers Zack Greinke, a free agent this offseason, a contract could be tendering him a contract. Players who have played out the first few years of their original contract (the one the player signed when drafted) become arbitration eligible. Essentially, in order to attempt to properly compensate young players who find themselves still years away from free agency, MLB put in a system in which the player and team present information to a third party who decided what that player's contract will be for the next season. It is done on a season-to-season basis, and some players can go through 4 years worth of arbitration before becoming eligible for free agency. Any player who is arbitration eligible must be tendered a contract by a specific date, which happens to be December 2nd this year. Any arbitration eligible player not tendered a contract becomes a free agent. Arbitration can be an expensive process for teams. Especially when a previously productive player is coming off of a less productive season because that player will most likely make more money in arbitration, due to his past performance. A team might want to retain that player, but not at the expected arbitration salary, so the team non-tenders the player, allowing him to become a free agent, then offer him a separate deal for less money.

The process can be complicated, especially given the fact that the arbitration process has many flaws incorporated into it. Since it is complicated, here is a simple rule. Teams non-tender players when the team would rather risk losing the player to another team than possibly pay them an exorbitant amount of money through arbitration.

Non-tendering a player can prove fruitful or fruitless. Sometimes the player in question will sign with another club and perform very well whereas other times non-tendering a player can be the best way to dump a declining or injury-prone player. Some names that came out on the non-tender list this offseason include John Lannan, Mark Reynolds, Ian Stewart, Jair Jurrjens, Jeff Karstans, and Brian Wilson. The common themes amongst these players are injuries, Karstans, Wilson, and Jurrjens, and declines in productivity, Lannan and Sterwart. If you want a more comprehensive list, and way to track players who have been non-tendered, tendered, et cetera, check out MLBtraderumors page here.

John Lannan

Where might some of these non-tendered players wind up? Between 2008-2011 John Lannan averaged 1.3 fwins (stands for fWAR), which is worth between $6-7 million on this years free agent market. Lannan was set to make about $5.5 million dollars in arbitration. The Nationals don't need Lannan in their rotation, and would rather use that money to fill a void elsewhere on the team. Between 08' and 11', Lannan was incredibly consistent, putting up FIPs between 4.20 and 4.80, BB % around 8%, and most importantly the 13th best ground ball percentage in the league. Lannan strikes out very few hitters, but makes up for his lack of swing-and-miss ability with pitches that cause lots of ground balls. Lannan throws four pitchers, a fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup. According to pitch f/x data, his changeup and curveball are solid to above average pitches, causing the ground balls, while Lannan's fastball and slider leave something to be desired. Combine Lannan with a good infield defense, and he could be worth anywhere from 1 win to 3 wins. Any team hoping to find a more suitable fifth starter should take a serious look at John Lannan. The Toronto Blue Jays, Philadelphia Phillies, and San Diego Padres could all be solid destinations for Lannan. Toronto has been rumored to be looking for an upgrade for J.A. Happ, while the Phillies might want a more experienced pitcher than Tyler Cloyd, and the Padres could turn Lannan into a great trade piece at the trade deadline.

Brian Wilson, known as "The Beard", put up a few productive years out of the San Francisco bullpen. With Sergio Romo taking his spot in the back end of the Giants bullpen, combined with Wilson's recent Tommy John surgery made Wilson an obvious non-tender candidate. Wilson is very valuable, but not in the typical way. Any team with money that is in need of a veteran cog in the bullpen could take a chance on Wilson, given his low cost, and Wilson's desire to prove himself. A team that might not be in contention next season could look to sign Wilson in order to flip him for prospects at the trade deadline in July. According to PECOTA, Wilson could be worth one WARP per season for the next three years. Any team that can sign Wilson to a one-year deal worth no more than $6 million could end up with a solid bargain. Look for the big clubs like Boston, Baltimore, Los Angeles (both LA teams), and Detroit to take a chance on Wilson.

Mark Reynolds

Finally, there's Mark Reynolds. Reynolds hit some big home runs for the Orioles last season, but with arbitration money in the realm of $10 million or more coming to him, the Orioles wisely non-tendered Reynolds. The issue with Reynolds isn't his incredibly high strikeout totals, but finding him a place to play. Reynolds rarely plays good defense at third base, his original position, and is below average at first base. Obviously, the American League offers an alternative to this, the designated hitter, but there are only 15 DH spots in the majors. The most logical spot would be Houston, a team moving from the NL to the AL, and thus in need of a designated hitter. On the other hand, it isn't difficult to find a hitter with pop who can't play defense, so instead of spending money on Reynolds, the obvious solution is to put a prospect in the DH role who costs far less money. Reynolds might be a possibility for the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays need a first baseman, and are not shy to put a home run hitter who strikes out often in that spot. Also, the Rays could DH Reynolds to take away from him negatively affecting their infield defense. Some team will take a chance on Reynolds, his power is undeniable, but whichever team does, would never have gotten that chance had the non-tender rule not been in place.

Now that you have a full understanding of non-tendering, when this time comes about next season you might be able to point to specific players who make good non-tender candidates and other that don't. Remember, oftentimes the most important pieces to a 25-man roster can come from the most remote of places, like the jungle of non-tendered players. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wilsobr01.shtml

A Game of Dominoes

2012-11-29T16:17:00.001-08:00

Denard Span

First the Braves signed B.J. Upton to a 5-year contract worth $75 million. Now the Nationals have traded for now former Twins center fielder Denard Span. Dave Cameron does a great job summing up the trade at Fangraphs, so I'll spare you the gory details. One thing Cameron makes note of is that the acquisition of Span means the Nationals now have surplus of outfielders. Jayson Werth and Bryce Harper will retain their spots, with Harper shifting to a corner spot, but it leaves no room for Michael Morse. Morse, who was acquired by the Nationals from the Mariners for Ryan Langerhans, has blossomed into a legitimate right-handed masher.

Michael Morse:

	Games Played	ISO	wRC+	wOBA	fWAR
2010	98	0.229	134	0.377	1.1
2011	146	0.247	148	0.390	3.3
2012	102	0.180	113	0.340	0.1

Michael Morse

Not only has Morse become a power bat, he's under team control for 2013 at a price of $6.75 million, an undervalued price if he puts up numbers similar to his recent past. The Nationals don't want to get rid of Morse, but now there is no room for him. Well, maybe not so fast. Morse has played 123 games at first base, and the Nationals currently have no first baseman.

	2012
	OF	1B
UZR	-21.9	0.5
DRS	-4	0

Looking at these numbers from 2012, from a fielding standpoint, Morse not only stops hurting a team when he plays first base instead of outfield, he helps the cause. So, what can we conclude? The simple answer here is, move Morse to first and move on to the next problem.

Nationals fans might be saying, "What about Adam LaRoche?" LaRoche played first base for the National last season, and he did it with extreme proficiency. At the plate, LaRoche posted a 3.8 fWAR that breaks down into a .361 wOBA, 127 wRC+, and a 6.1 UZR. LaRoche is a free agent with whom the Nationals have been in discussions with for a possible contract, but recently those discussions have begun to turn sour. In addition, the most recent news has the Red Sox in talks with LaRoche, another sign pointing towards the Nationals removing themselves from contention to sign him, and to simply move Morse to first permanently to replace the departed LaRoche.

PECOTA sees LaRoche's 2012 as a bad predictor of his future numbers. According to the system developed by Nate Silver, LaRoche will post something close to 0.7 WARP over the next 3 seasons, with some wiggle room on either side. While LaRoche could be better than PECOTA predicts, he also present injury concerns, and at age 33 he isn't getting any younger. Also, first basemen are very replaceable given the relative ease that comes with playing the position, and the number of power hitters that occupy 1st base.

So, what will be the next domino to fall? Upton's signing begot the trade for Span, and the acquisition of Span will beget something else. So, let's speculate. The Phillies are thought to be the next team to sign or make a deal for a center fielder in order to keep up with the Braves in the NL East, so could they be involved in the next deal? It would seem as though the options are dwindling for the Fightin' Phillies, but as a team with money to spend, the Phillies still have lots of options. The Phillies could spend big and pay for Josh Hamilton, spend less to acquire Michael Bourn, Angel Pagan, or Shane Victorino, make a trade for a center fielder like Peter Bourjos or Dexter Fowler, or acquire a player at a different position like third base, forcing the team to platoon John Mayberry Jr. and Nate Schierholtz in center field.

The Braves made a clever and efficient move by grabbing the guy they want at a reasonable price, while the Nationals made a smart move by trading for a center fielder to solve a problem in center field as well as first base, now it's time to see what the Phillies can do to counter. Recently, I postulated that the Phillies should fill the void in center field by trading for the Rockies Dexter Fowler. As of now, I would expand that list to include Angels' outfielder Peter Bourjos. By filling the hole via trade, the Phillies should then sign Nick Swisher to a reasonable contract. Swisher, Fowler/Bourjos, and Domonic Brown roaming the confines of Citizens Bank Park's outfield would be the counterpunch.

Peter Bourjos

How do Trevor May and Zach Collier for Peter Bourjos sound? On paper it isn't a bad deal for either the Phillies or the Angels. Bourjos is essentially Denard Span, but a little younger, and slightly less expensive. The Angels have a center fielder named Mike Trout; maybe you've heard of him, who makes Bourjos expendable. If the Angels can't can't sign Zack Greinke, having another young pitching prospect in the form of Trevor May can't hurt. The Angels clear more payroll, the Phillies get a solid defensive center fielder with speed who projects to put up and average of 1.7 WARP over the next 4 seasons, and the Phillies have found the proper retaliatory response to the Nats and Braves' moves.

The offseason can be a mix of a chess match, boxing match, and poker hand all at once. The number of influences on a team that can manipulate the decisions made are vast, and always growing, putting every team on higher alert every successive year. With the winter meetings coming up, a number of free agents are set to sign deals, and many more trades are prime to come about, hopefully including a response from the Phillies.

It's What We Call A Win-WIn

2012-11-29T14:05:00.000-08:00

Yesterday, former Rays center fielder B.J. Upton agreed in principle to a 5-year $75 million contract with the Atlanta Braves. Today, Upton officially signed the contract, and the Braves held a subsequent press conference officially announcing the news. After weeks of scouting, crunching numbers, and meetings, the Braves front office zeroed in on Upton as their first choice to take over for departing outfielder Michael Bourn in center field. At the same time, numerous reports came out speaking of the Phillies desire to sign Upton as well. While the Phillies may have been showing interest in Upton in order to increase the amount of money the Braves would need to pay to secure the former Ray, most in the business took the Phillies as a serious threat. It has been reported that the Phillies would not go higher than 5/55 for Upton (numerator is years/denominator is total amount of money), a sign that they either valued him less, saw some flaws that Atlanta either didn't see or overlooked, or truly want another center fielder, but couldn't be seen not going for Justin's older brother.

Nonetheless, the fact remains that Upton is now a Brave, in he'll remain a Brave for 5 more seasons. The Braves, unlike the Phillies, are not willing to spend large sums of money on free agents. An obvious and germain fact given that the contract they gave Upton is the largest ever shelled out by the Braves to a free agent. Atlanta, being a mid-market team, likes to build through the draft, and use their money to either fill in the rest of the spots on the roster or make a splash with one or two bigger names. Up till now, the team had been using the former approach as opposed to the latter. On the other hand, does this most recent signing point to a team that's going to be very active in free agency? It might, but it doesn't imply that Atlanta is focusing any less energy on building their organization from within.

I recently wrote an article about qualifying offers. Essentially, a qualifying offer is a one-year contract offered by a team to a top-50 free agent. The player then has a specific amount of time to decide whether to accept or not. If the player rejects it, hoping to score a longer more lucrative deal on the open market, his former team will now receive a compensatory pick at the end of the first round of next year's draft. The team making the qualifying offer must be willing to have the player accept the deal. This can be difficult for mid-level and small market teams because the value of this one-year deal is usually high, $13.5 million this offseason.

Now that you're caught up on qualifying offers, I can explain the genius behind the Braves recent moves. First a time line.

1) 2012 season ends, Michael Bourn and B.J. Upton head for free agency
2) The Braves make a qualifying offer to Bourn, and the Rays do the same for Upton
3) Both players reject the qualifying offers allowing them to sign with any team they desire
4) Braves sign B.J. Upton to 5-year $75 million contract

Signing Upton means that the Braves won't be resigning Michael Bourn. When Bourn signs with a different team, the Braves will receive a compensatory pick at the end of the first round to replace the first round pick they lost when they signed Upton. Okay, so the pick they will receive for Bourn won't be as high in the first round as the pick the team relinquished, but they now have a center fielder, and still have a 1st round pick. That's the definition of a win-win situation, perfect for a mid-market team.

A small market team wouldn't have the capital to spend on a free agent like Upton, so the prospect of losing a first-round draft pick doesn't exist. This situation is perfectly depicted by the Rays, who will receive a compensatory pick for losing Upton, but won't relinquish their own 1st round pick as they won't be spending money on a top-50 free agent. A big market team, say the Dodgers, have such a plethora of money to spend on free agents at any given time that the loss of a draft pick is a reasonable price to pay. Really, it isn't a good price to pay because draft picks equal capital as much as money in the bank, but big market teams have the flexibility to care less and spend more.

So, the Braves made out like bandits. They will still pick in the first round, and will have a PECOTA predicted 2+ WARP average player for the next 5 seasons. Some of this was made possible by circumstance. If the Braves hadn't had a top 50 free agent they didn't want to resign, signing Upton would have been more costly. So, while it was a win-win for the Braves, as will all things in Baseball, luck and randomness played a part. Still, let's not forget, the job of good front office personnel is to make the best out of the given situation, something Frank Wren's staff performed exceptionally well.

Now that we have correctly congratulated the Braves for a job well done, what comes next? The Phillies, who supposedly lost out on the Upton sweepstakes, still need to find the team's next center fielder. The list may have shrunk by one, but numerous options remain for Ruben Amaro and the Phillies front office. Josh Hamilton, who I argue should be moved to a corner outfield spot, the aforementioned Michael Bourn, Angel Pagan, and Shane Victorino are all still free agents looking for a home. The team could look to trade to fill the post, with Dexter Fowler, Peter Bourjos, and Denard Span rumored to be possible trade candidates, but that costs prospects, not money. More likely, the Phillies are either looking to make a big splash, something they have been prone to do in the recent history, by signing Josh Hamilton, or have something else up their sleeve. With the winer meetings coming up and Upton now a Brave, the chances of the Phillies having a new center fielder very soon has gone up considerably, only adding to the fire in the hot stove.