Summer Pastime

Let's Talk Pitching

2012-02-07T09:48:00.000-08:00

This past Sunday Americans celebrated the end of the NFL season by eating lots of fried food, cheering for the players as much as the commercials, and then passing out praying their boss is a Giants fan. Now that the Super Bowl is over, one fact remains, only 11 days until pitchers and catchers report to spring training.

In light of the imminent arrival of pitchers and catchers to Florida and Arizona I decided to write about pitching, and more specifically, starting pitching. As I alluded to in my previous post, every starter in a rotation has the ability to contribute as much as his fellow starters. The designation of #1 starter or #5 starter usually tells us something about a pitcher's value, but both the #1 and #5 starter in every rotation have equal opportunities to contribute.

This off-season a number of high quality starting pitchers changed teams including C.J Wilson (Rangers to Angels), Mark Buehrle (White Sox to Marlins), Edwin Jackson (Cardinals to Nationals), Gio Gonzalez (A's to Nats), and Matt Latos (Padres to Reds). Recently the trend in Major League Baseball has been to compile an elite set of starters in order to achieve success. Examples include the Phillies, Giants, Braves, and Rays. No matter how a general manager accomplishes this goal, putting together a great rotation instead of a star studded lineup has become the norm.

No division compiled more starting pitching in the last 3 years than the National League East. Whether by trade, free agency, or through the draft, the NL East is chock-full or great starters.

Philadelphia Phillies: When you think of great starting pitching there is almost no better place to start then the reigning NL East champion Phillies. With All-starts Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels topping the Phillies rotation, Philadelphia is poised to claim a 6th consecutive NL east title. With the emergence of Vance Worley as a reliable strike-throwing starter (61.5% F-strike%) the Phillies decided to allow the now older and more injury prone Roy Oswalt to test the free agent waters. This makes their rotation younger and less expensive, especially since both Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels will be making considerably more money in 2012 than in 2011. Rounding out the rotation is Joe Blanton. Blanton spent almost the entire 2011 season on the disabled list, but was integral to the Phillies' World Series runs in 2008 and 2009 and, like Worley, should provide the Phillies with 5 strike-throwing starting pitchers. Last season the Phillies 5 starting pitchers compiled a WAR of 28.8 utilizing Fangraphs' version of WAR. In comparison the 2011 Marlins starters compiled a measly 15.5 total WAR. The Phillies should be pleased with their rotation going into the 2012 season as it, along with the Giants rotation, is one of the top 2 rotations in the NL.

Atlanta Braves: To say the Braves have depth in their starting rotation is a massive understatement. 7 different starters could easily see themselves in the Braves 2012 rotation. Most teams would turn to the witchcraft to compile a group of arms like the Braves'. While the Braves' depth seems almost like overkill, it may prove vital to their success. Last season only veteran sinkerballer Tim Hudson reached the 200 inning plateau with no other Braves pitcher currently in the 2012 rotation throwing for more than 152.0 innings. Beginning the season 4/5 of the Braves rotation was born in the 1980's with two other possibilities (Randall Delgado and Julio Tehran) under the age of 23. The Braves rotation, unlike the Phillies, is made up of a lot of "ifs". For example, if Tommy Hanson continues his success as a big strikeout pitcher and stays healthy... and if Jair Jurrjens stays healthy and performs as stellar post-All-star break as he does before mid-season... and if Mike Minor and Brandon Beachy pitch at a more veteran level than their ages... and finally if Randall Delgado and Julio Tehran live up to their highly touted statuses... the Braves could have the best rotation in baseball. Is this likley? Probably not, but the Braves rotation has the potential to be incredible, which is better than most.

If the Nats are to win Strasburg is the key

Washington Nationals: This is quite possibly the most intriguing starting rotation in all of Major League Baseball. No discussion of the Nationals starters can begin with anyone but Stephen Strasburg. As someone who has seen Strasburg pitch in person, I can tell you that he passes the eye test for ace starter. Strasburg demonstrates poise and presence on the mound and has 3 plus pitches. The only knock on the Nats phenom is that his sample size isn't large enough to make any bold statements as to his greatness. His lack of experience coupled with recent Tommy John surgery usually don't bode well for young starters, but Strasburg's talent is unmatched. In an attempt to improve their recently weak starting rotation the Nats flexed their wallets by trading and then extending Gio Gonzalez and then signing Edwin Jackson. Gonzalez was one of the best lefties in the AL last season, but played in pitcher friendly Oakland. Gonzalez compiles a lot of strikeouts, but his forte is getting into and then out of trouble. The southpaw had a WHIP of 1.32 last season but a LOB% of 77.1%. With a projected BABIP of .302 and a friendlier hitter's ballpark Gonzalez could get burned if he tires after the first time through the lineup, but overall he's a solid addition to the Nats rotation. The best signing of the off-season may turn out to be the one-year deal the Nats gave to Edwin Jackson. Over the last 4 seasons Jackson's FIP and WHIP have trended in a positive direction which bodes well for him in 2012. Rounding out the rotation is John Lannan, but with the Nats declaring their desire to move him he may be pitching elsewhere very soon. Chin-Ming Wang and Ross Detwiler will compete for the fifth starting spot. Neither pitcher will significantly improve the rotation, but if Wang can compile a ground ball percentage of at least 50% he could make a significant impact.

Anibal Sanchez

Florida Marlins: Like the Nats, the Marlins rotation received a makeover. New faces include Mark Buehrle and Carlos Zambrano. Adding Zambrano and Buehrle to Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, and Ricky Nolasco creates a fairly formidable rotation. They key for Johnson is to stay away from the disabled list. When he is healthy he is arguably the best pitcher in Major League Baseball, but for this team to do well he must stay healthy. Sanchez's recent history shows a trend towards ace status, but even if he doesn't achieve #1 type numbers his presence will be felt. Nolasco has been solid, with his numbers showing a shift from a strikeout pitcher to one who gets outs on the ground. If Nolasco's numbers remain similar to last season he will have done his job. Although the Marlins probably overpaid to get Buehrle, he is a lefty with impeccable control, which is invaluable. Zambrano is obviously the wild card of the bunch, but I expect an improvement from him because if anyone can control crazy Carlos it's the wildest manager out there, Ozzie Guillen.

Maybe Mr. Met should pitch

New York Mets: The Mets rotation sports Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, and R.A. Dickey. If Santana can somehow become the pitcher he was before his arm issues, the Mets can basically count on one win every five games, but the odds of him returning to his Cy Young self are slim. Pelfrey may be one of the most frustrating pitchers in the league in that every time he looks like he has crossed the threshold into greatness he regresses back to mediocrity. Niese, Gee, and Dickey are all #4 caliber starters, but with the Mets projected to remain cellar dwellers in the east their contributions lack importance.

Overall, the NL East could be one of if not the best pitching divisions in Major League Baseball, but nothing is certain until they play the games. Ranking these rotations isn't easy but I'm up for a challenge. #1 Phillies #2 Nationals #3 Braves #4 Marlins #5 Mets. The Marlins have the most potential to move up this list while the Braves and Nats have the most potential to move down. One fact is certain, the battle for NL East supremacy will be a fight to the finish.

1st to 5th, They All Matter

2012-01-12T13:49:00.000-08:00

Paul Maholm, Jake Westbrook, Chris Narveson, and Barry Zito. What do all of these seemingly random names have in common? They would all be considered the 5th starters for their respective teams heading into in the 2012 season. This begs another question: Why should we care about these back end of the rotation starters. These are players relegated to mediocrity, seldom spoken of, and often forgotten. Here lies the rub (no I'm not a Shakespeare major, but who wouldn't use the word rub). Each of these pitchers will start just as many games as their number one counterparts. In other words, Barry Zito, pending injury, will start in about 33 games, the same number as ace Tim Lincecum.

All general managers need 5 starting pitchers and although the better ones come first, each starter has the same potential to influence their team. Since 3 of the names mentioned above call the NL Central home let's focus on the middle division of the senior circuit. As a refresher, the teams, for now, include the World Series champion St. Louis Cardinals, the 2012 NL Central winning Milwaukee Brewers, the Chicago Cubs, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Houston Astros.

2012 Team	Player	Age	Season	WAR	FIP	K/9	HR/FB	GB%
Cubs	Maholm	29	7th	2.1	3.78	5.38	7.50%	49.90%
Cardinals	Westbrook	34	11th	1.1	4.25	5.11	11.40%	59.30%
Astros	Happ	29	4th	0.3	4.69	7.71	10.20%	33.00%
Brewers	Narveson	30	4th	1.5	4.06	7.01	9.60%	42.30%
Pirates	Bedard	32	8th	2.4	3.64	8.7	10.20%	42.00%
Reds	Mike Leake	24	2nd	1.5	4.22	6.33	13.90%	47.70%

The above chart shows a few important statistics and other information concerning these players' 2011 seasons. In looking for patterns we can rule out experience because although all are veterans, some much more than others. Their ages all seem similar with Jake Westbrook the outlier at age 34. Other than age, these pitchers all display an interesting characteristic of 5th starters (at least in the NL central). That is that none of these players would be considered strikeout pitchers. In fact, 2 out of 5 are ground ball pitchers, namely Westrbook and Maholm. Eric Bedard's 8.7 K/9 shows a pitcher who still gets a good mix of swings-and-misses as well as called strikes. Interestingly, but not necessarily connected, Bedard also garnered the highest WAR last season.

So, it seems as though in this division the Cubs, who are rebuilding, and the Pirates, who look to improve upon 2011 but most likely won't win the division in 2012, have the best 5th starters. Either the Cardinals or Reds will win the 2012 NL Central, and neither of their 5th starters could muster more than 1.5 WAR last season. In addition, both Jake Westbrook and Mike Leake have FIP numbers over 4, which is above the league average. FIP, or fielding independent pitching, is a good indicator of future performance but not for evaluating a single season. One explanation for this disparity could be that both the Reds and Cardinals rely more heavily on their top-tier starters and care less about the back end of the rotation. Another explanation could be that these teams rely more on their offenses, thus they place less importance on pitching due to their offenses' ability to neutralize a mediocre pitcher. Both the Cardinals and Reds have dynamic offenses, something none of the other NL Central teams have, thus I would say this is the reason.

The Cubs recently signed Maholm to a 1-year contract worth about $4.25 million. This is not a considerably high price to pay for a ground ball pitcher who provides more than 2.0 WAR from the left side. Why then did a contending team not pick up the under-the-radar Maholm? Your guess is as good as mine, but since this is my blog my guess is all that matters. My guess is that the Reds are banking on he young Leake to improve this season, and Leake, still under his rookie contract, comes at a much lower price than Maholm. The Cardinals, who saved lots of money not signing Albert Pujols, probably should have considered Maholm. I understand that Jake Westbrook is under contract, but Maholm is the better pitcher. If it only costs them $4.25 million to sign Maholm for one year then as a theoretical Cardinals GM I would eat the cost of Westbrook's salary for this season, stick him in the bullpen, and sign Maholm. He will most likely make between 25 and 32 starts this season and with the division race looking slim, even a small advantage like this could push the scale towards St. Louis.

Finally, let's consider another idea. Who is the best 5th starter in Major League Baseball? I like using WAR because it is a statistic that denotes value. According to WAR statistics, Rangers RHP Alexei Ogando is the best 5th starter in MLB. His 3.6 WAR in 2011 is equivalent to Jaime Garcia, Gavin Floyd, and Derek Holland. Even Phillies rookie Vance Worley(2.5) captured a higher WAR than Maholm. The problem lies that both Ogando and Worley could be considered 4th or 5th starters on their respective teams, but in fairness because I have been using MLB.com's depth charts as references I must stay consistent.

Often times fifth starters are young pitchers getting their first chance in the big leagues, and others are fading old timers, once good, but now banished to the great hall of the pedestrian. In the end I think there should be a quest, especially amongst contending teams, to find the best fifth starter. All 5 guys in every rotation start almost the same number of games, and each game means just as much as the next. Thus, why not try to get the best man for each slot. Paul Maholm may have signed with the Cubs, and kudos to GM Jed Hoyer for stealing him from the many contenders who should have signed him. As usual, Hoyer and the rest of the Theo Epstein bunch remain ahead of the curve, but the main message is that each player on a team matters, so choose wisely and always attempt to make the right choice.

The Case For Kerry Wood

2012-01-09T11:51:00.000-08:00

The Phillies have been rumored to be interested in RHP Kerry Wood. Here is my take on the situation originally posted to www.Phillysportsdaily.com

CaseforWood

Phillies Bullpen Future

2012-01-01T12:04:00.001-08:00

Phillies Bullpen Future

Going, Going, Gone Forever

2011-12-05T12:15:00.001-08:00

On December 4^th, the Miami Marlins once against stoked the fire of the Major League Baseball hot stove. The Marlins, who recently signed closer Heath Bell, reportedly inked former Mets shortstop Jose Reyes to a 6-year $106 million contract. Matt Kemp recently signed a $160 million contract with the Dodgers, making Reyes’ recent signing the second 9-figure deal made this off-season.

The Phillies should have signed Jose Reyes. The hole between second base and shortstop remains void with Jimmy Rollins currently a free agent. Most, if not many, believe Rollins’ eventual destination will be a return to Philadelphia. Despite Rollins’ hometown hero status, the Phillies made a mistake making him their top priority in filling their need at shortstop.

Reyes’ contract will pay him $17.67 million per season, and if you need convincing as to the frugality of the deal see Dave Cameron’s article on Fangraphs.com [insert hyperlink here]. Reyes commanded a great deal of money on the open market, becoming the second highest paid free agent shortstop ever. In 2011 Reyes compiled a 6.1 WAR, his third posting of at least a WAR of 6.0 in his 9 MLB seasons. In this, his contract year, Reyes displayed his true brilliance. He hit .337 with a .384 on base percentage and scored 107 runs. His batting average on balls in play was a career high .353 and his strikeout percentage was a career low 7.0%. For a leadoff hitter, these numbers show greatness. Reyes’ game is predicated on his speed on the base paths. He annoys pitchers, forcing them to take their attention off of the hitter and put some effort into preventing Reyes from running. Reyes proved a pest running the bases, stealing 39 of 46 bases he attempted, good enough for an 85% success rate, which shows patience and intelligence when stealing.

Despite his outstanding statistics, Jose Reyes’ name always sparks a conversation about his health. Reyes has never played in 162 games, and has play in 160 games only twice in his career. This past season Reyes experienced similar injury problems that forced him to visit the disabled list twice. Reyes played only 126 games in 2011, a fact that worried many teams when they considered signing him, but given his statistic in 2011 also showed his potential brilliance at age 28.

Jimmy Rollins has been the Phillies everyday shortstop since 2001. He won the national league MVP in 2007 and helped the Phillies win the 2008 World Series. During his time in Philadelphia Rollins has become an icon, team leader, and fan favorite despite a decline in his production. Rollins showed some minor improvements in batting average (.268), BABIP (.275), and OBP (.338) but still pales in comparison to Reyes’ numbers. One consistent criticism of Rollins has been his inability to walk and his tendency to swing early in the count and constantly hit pop-ups instead of line drives. Rollins’ walk percentage was 9.2% in 2011, the third best of his career, but even still, his on base percentage ranked 9^th in MLB for shortstops. Rollins continued his penchant for popping the ball up, posting an abysmal .95 ground ball to fly ball ratio. In addition, Rollins compiled a 41% fly ball percentage on batted balls and only a 7.7% home run to fly ball percentage. Thus, Rollins, as the Phillies leadoff hitter, continued to hit the ball in the air too often without showing the power he provided earlier in his career.

Rollins, at age 32, is looking for a 4-5 year contract. Such a deal would constitute another addition to bad contracts given out to aging players by Ruben Amaro. Rollins’ numbers show a decline in every area, even defensively, which is seen as his greatest on-the-field attribute. Reyes received a 6-year contract from the Marlins, which would end when he is 34 years old, while a 4 year contract for J-Roll would leave him a Phillie until age 36. Over that span of time, barring any major injuries, Reyes will most likely be a better player. Thus far this off-season the Phillies biggest splash was the signing of Jonathan Papelbon to a 5-year $50 million contract. Instead of giving a relief pitcher $10 million per season, the Phillies should have used that money to sign Jose Reyes. Despite the growing market for closers, set up men, and lefty specialists, these players till only play in about 60 games per year while even an injured Jose Reyes contributes in at least 100 games per season. Imagine for a second a lineup that included Jose Reyes. It might look like this:

1	Jose Reyes	SS
2	Shane Victorino	CF
3	Chase Utley	2B
4	Hunter Pence	RF
5	Jim Thome	1B
6	John Mayberry Jr.	LF
7	Placido Polanco	3B
8	Carlos Ruiz	C
9	Roy Halladay	SP

With Reyes at the top of lineup, the Phillies, even without Ryan Howard, do not look offensively challenged. With Rollins leading off, that story changes greatly. The combined OBP of Reyes, Victorino, and Utley from 2011 was 1.083 while the combined OBP of Rollins, Victorino, and Utley in 2011 was 1.037. With outstanding starting pitching the Phillies do not need to score huge numbers of runs, but with Reyes they might have scored enough to push them back into the World Series, while with Rollins they may continue to decline. Finally, financially, the Phillies already possess the largest NL payroll, so I ask, if the Phillies are willing to spend money, why not do so efficiently by signing players like Jose Reyes and David Dejesus, and not Jonathan Papelbon and Jimmy Rollins.

So, should the Phillies have signed Jose Reyes? I think Reyes provides a great upgrade to Rollins, and had they not wasted money on Papelbon, signing Reyes was financially feasible. Rollins will most likely be the opening day shortstop for the Phillies in 2012, but that decision, coupled with Reyes’ new contract in Miami, may prove to be a missed opportunity.

New CBA

2011-11-22T15:03:00.001-08:00

Major League Baseball, led by Bud Selig and the owners, and the players association, led by the players, has reached an agreement on a new collective bargaining agreement that will last until 2016. Before getting into the nuts and bolts of the changes to the new CBA I want to congratulate the players and and owners for ensuring that baseball will continue to be played without a work stoppage. Baseball has continued to grow every season and remains America's pastime. For it to be the only major sport in the U.S. not to have a strike since the 1990's constitutes an impressive accomplishment.

The new collective bargaining agreement contains some interesting changes. One of the most recent intense debates in the baseball world has concerned the use or disuse of instant replay. The new CBA stipulates that instant replay will expand its purview. Pending an agreement with the umpires union, the new owners and players have agreed to use instant replay in situations of fair/foul calls and in cases of a "trapped" ball. I am a proponent of expanding instant replay. If we have the technology and we truly love the game we should want to get the call right, no matter what. I agree that utilizing umpires keeps the human element as part of baseball, but allowing the umpires some assistance adds to the game's legitimacy. No one will forget the no-call that disallowed Armando Gallaraga's perfect game. Interestingly, these new changes will not govern a play similar to the one in Gallaraga's imperfect game, but they do illustrate a move in the right direction.

Another important change covered in the CBA also refers to a hot-button issue: performance enhancing drugs. The new CBA calls for drug testing of the top 200 amateur prospects as well as blood testing for human growth hormone. HGH has been recently publicized as rampant throughout baseball. Previously there was no definitive test for HGH but blood testing has proven effective. The owners finally convinced the players union to allow their members to be blood tested in addition to the urine test which they were subjected to previously. Following the testing the samples will be disposed of. Players are subjected to be tested at random for HGH in spring training and after that players can only be tested for just cause.

Tobacco has become an important topic in baseball circles. Large numbers of players chew tobacco, which can lead to esophageal, tongue, and mouth cancer. MLB sent a message to the country in the new agreement by banning the use of smokeless tobacco during any on-camera moments. A player should be allowed to chew tobacco, but by doing so on TV he advertises its use. This new directive is aimed at discouraging children from picking up unhealthy habits. Players are role models and should act as such through their play, attitude, and their health habits.

Other important changes in the new collective bargaining agreement concern free agents and the draft. Under the new agreement, contracts for amateurs have undergone adjustments. Each team, depending on regular season record, with the teams that win more getting less money and the teams who win less getting more money, will receive a stipend or signing bonus pool that can then be spent on signing top free agents. Teams with higher pools will find it easier to sign their top draft picks and thus rebuild their farm systems, while consistently competitive teams will have to use other methods to sign coveted youngsters. The same bonus pool system will apply to international amateurs, those players whose nationality is of a country other than the United States, Canada, Puerto Rico, or other U.S. territories and who have not attended a U.S. high school or college. Teams like the Rangers, Reds, and Rays have recently signed a number of highly touted international players by spending more money on them. These teams have benefited from this increase in spending, using it to compete with bigger market teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies and Giants. The changes lessen but do not erase this advantage.

One inherent problem with bonus pools for signing amateurs regards two or multi-sport athletes. Money remains a significant reason for multi-sport athletes to choose baseball over football, basketball, and hockey. If MLB decreases the ability of teams to spend lots of money on signing bonuses then some players who excel more than one sport may be persuaded to play another sport instead of baseball.

Two other minor but interesting changes in the new CBA include a minimum salary increase for first-year players as well as the elimination of the Elias sports rankings for free agents. No longer will players be classified as type-A or type-B free agents according to Elias. Instead, the decision to award compensatory draft picks for losing a free agent will be determined by the amount of money per year in the free agent's new contract. Teams offering a contract to a free agent that has a value greater than $12.4 million per season will receive a first-round draft pick as compensation. $12.4 million is the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. Teams that finish in the bottom 15 teams in the regular season will not have to forfeit a draft pick for signing a free agent for more than $12.4 million per season. I think this change serves a purpose, in that it rids the league of the arbitrary Elias sports rankings and implements a system that can change as contracts do. The new system will most likely need tweaking, but theoretically it seems more beneficial than the old system.[1]

Additionally, new CBA realigns the league as well as changes the playoff system. The players and owners announced that the Houston Astros, under new owner Jim Crane, will be moving to the American League West beginning in 2013. This will leave 6 divisions with 5 teams in each. Each league will have 15 teams, which creates some scheduling problems. In the new vision, there would have to be an inter league series played at all times because each league has an odd number of teams instead of an even number. The new realignment means more inter league games, something which does not excite me. Inter league play is fun but nothing in baseball creates more excitement than a division race with playoff implications. It is more important that teams within each division play themselves more often than teams from different leagues playing each other. As a Phillies fan, I would rather see more games against the Mets, Braves, Marlins, and Nationals, than games against the Red Sox, Royals, or Mariners. This change may eventually lead to the elimination of the pitcher from hitting, even in the National League. The DH may soon be introduced in the NL because owners and managers will not want to sit their DH's for more games being played in NL parks. This distresses me even more because I am completely against the designated hitter.[2]

Finally, the new CBA also calls for an eventual expansion of the playoffs to include one more wild card in each league. I cannot begin to articulate the stupidity of expanding the playoffs. With advanced metrics taking over the baseball world, influencing the valuation of players, teams, and even statistics, devaluing the regular season seems ludicrous. It is now possible that the 5th best team in either league could not only win their league's pennant, but the World Series. The 5th best teams in the NL and AL respectively in 2011 were the Atlanta Braves and Boston Red Sox. Both teams experienced infamous collapses. Neither team deserved to make the playoffs. This change will add more games to the playoffs, which already last till the end of October. MLB owners will make more money due to this change; no other legitimate reason could be found other than the obvious monetary incentive. Currently the 8th best team could win the World Series; under the new agreement the 10th best team in the league could do so. I understand the odds are against the 9th and 10th best teams, but with the Cardinals winning two World Series with teams that won 90 or fewer games many fans already see the playoff system as completely random instead of rewarding the teams with the best regular season records. Inflating the playoff system will only prove to further dilute the talent pool in the playoffs.[3]

The latest collective bargaining agreement encompasses some powerful changes to Major League Baseball. The most comforting piece of information to come out of this agreement is that baseball will be played through 2016 and that both the players association and owners agreed to all of these changes. Although both sides have agendas, I trust that both the owners and players want to uphold the integrity of the game despite the possible flaws in the new agreement. Both sides have the best intentions of the league at heart. The announcement of the new CBA perfectly exemplifies the importance of the off-season. The off-season contains great excitement and importance, something extremely evident in the new collective bargaining agreement.

[1] http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/11/22/2576566/mlb-labor-deal-cba

[2] http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/11/17/2568711/houston-astros-move-al-realignment-dh

[3] http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/11/18/2571900/mlb-new-wild-card-playoffs

Justin Verlander MVP??

2011-11-21T19:18:00.001-08:00

Today, the baseball writers announced that Detroit Tigers starting pitcher won the American League MVP award garnering 13 first place votes. I know what you're thinking, pitchers do not usually win most valuable player awards. You're right, the last starting pitcher to win the MVP award was Roger Clemens in 1986. If you are looking for "the case for Verlander" visit FangraphsVerlander. Verlander went 24-5 with a 2.42 ERA, with 250 strikeouts and a 7.0 WAR. He compiled a 0.92 WHIP and a .236 BABIP. Verlander showed durability by not appearing on the disabled list and pitching over 250 innings pitched while averaging 7.38 innings per start. The tiger's star has emerged as a complete pitcher who does not rely on the fastball to get outs. Verlander threw fastballs only 57% of the time this season, a career low but did not achieve a career high in percentage thrown of any other pitch demonstrating his versatility on the mound. By not relying heavily on any one pitch batters lose the ability to take educated guesses as to the pitch type. Finally, Verlander achieved a 2.99 FIP which accounted for 8th in Major League Baseball.

So, I think it is fair to assume that Justin Verlander deserves the Cy Young award and possible consideration for the MVP , but does he deserve to win MVP. The MVP is historically an award dominated by position players. In my opinion pitching and hitting are extremely different, so just as WAR is different for pitchers and hitters so should the MVP award. Most people consider the Cy Young award to be based mostly on statistics, which implies that the playoff status of a team does not factor into writers' votes. In addition baseball writers consider the most valuable player award to factor in team success as well as personal statistics.

Non-pitchers play on an every day basis, while starting pitchers only play 1 out of every 5 games. A position player can effect his team on an everyday basis, which also implies he can consistently detract from his team. I still believe that a team's success should factor into the most valuable player award, but if we agree not to separate a players value and their personal statistics than I think personal statistics should be taken into greater account. A player can prove extremely valuable to his team but not lead them to the playoffs. For example, Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp has a significant chance to win the National League MVP despite playing for a team that finished 3rd in the NL west with a .509 winning percentage. Overall, my opinion is such, awards should be separated by pitcher and position player, just as NFL player awards are separated by offense and defense. Also, both pitcher and position player should have either two awards, one for best player and one for most valuable player, or one award for each.

While the overall considerations for these awards deserve amending, 2011 proved no different. Jose Bautista and Jacoby Ellsbury, the 3rd and 2nd place winners in the MVP race respectively both play in the AL east, a significantly more difficult division than the AL central. Overall Jose Bautista compiled a league leading 10.3 WARP. Ellsbury's numbers proved similar to Bautista's, but Ellsbury proved more versitille due to his great base running (39 stolen bases) and ability to play an outstanding center field. The Red Sox may have completed the greatest September meltdown in MLB history, but it was not due to Ellsbury's play. Statistically, September proved to be Ellsbury's second best month. In the season's final month Ellsbury had a .358 batting average, with a 1.067 OPS, and 8 home runs. The Red Sox may have faltered down the stretch, but the collapse does not rest on the shoulders of Jacoby Ellsbury.

In the end, Justin Verlander is the 2011 American MVP, not Jose Bautista, Jacoby Ellsbury, nor any other AL player. We entrust the baseball writers with the power to give out awards and the writers have spoken. Verlander may not deserve the MVP by our newer more progressive statistical models, but he had an outstanding season. His play was integral to the Tigers, even if Ellsbury's and Bautista's play were more significant to their teams. Perhaps the 2011 AL MVP will serve as an example in the fight for a different set of standards and for deciding the winners of seasonal accolades. Whether this vote changes any fans' minds concerning player awards has yet to be determined, but hopefully the debate over whether Justin Verlander deserved this award will continue to prove the importance of questioning by whom and how these awards are given out.

The Epstein Effect

2011-11-06T17:49:00.000-08:00

Theo Epstein’s swift departure from the Red Sox not only altered the Red Sox and Cubs front offices, it sparked a chain reaction of movement within the administrative community of Major League Baseball and shed light on the most recent aristocracy of baseball front office minds. Much has been written about the “Moneyball” revolution that began with Bill James and permeated to the likes of Sandy Alderson, reaching current minds such as Billy Beane, Paul DePodesta, and Mark Shapiro. All of these men embraced the idea that a logical, well-educated, statistical approach to the acquisition, sale, and general movement of baseball players provided more merit than the system traditionally implemented. Just as the baby boom of the 1950’s and 1960’s led to boomlets, so too did the “moneyball” revolution lead to an aftershock of its own.

Enter Theo Epstein. Epstein, a graduate of Yale, became the first of many young, well-educated, general managers with a sabermetric mind. Epstein’s first job in baseball was in the public-relations department for the San Diego Padres. It was there that he developed a relationship with then Padres President and CEO Larry Lucchino. Lucchino, a lawyer by training, convinced Epstein to attend and graduate from law school. Lucchino understood that a Juris Doctor would teach Epstein to think rationally and logically when solving baseball problems. Epstein already exemplified the characteristics Lucchino thought necessary to achieve high status in a team’s front office. Lucchino, who had achieved success with Baltimore and San Diego, was grooming a protégé. Lucchino eventually left the sunny California coast for snowy Boston and the historic Fenway Park. Not surprisingly, Lucchino brought Epstein along with him to Boston where he eventually ascended to the position of general manager.

Once Epstein established himself in the Red Sox’s front office, he began to evaluate his staff and assemble his version of the Knights of the Round Table. Epstein knew that the sole way to create a winning team on the field was to create a winning team in the front office. His army of minds included Bill James, Jed Hoyer, Ben Cherington, Josh Byrnes, Craig Shipley, Dan Lejoie, and Jason McLeod. Epstein’s fraternity of young baseball minds made the Red Sox best known not for breaking the curse of the bambino, but instead a powerhouse club that is the only team to win multiple World Series between 2000 and 2010. Although the on-the-field success fueled the media, fans, and players, Epstein’s front office showed the baseball world a new formula for success. Almost every member of Epstein’s crew is young, attended top-tier universities, and embraced the “moneyball” method towards running a baseball franchise. The major difference between Beane’s implementation of sabermetrics in Oakland and Epstein’s usage of it in Boston was that the Red Sox were willing to spend money.

With an open wallet and a clear plan, Epstein began building a winning team with the capability to shock the world and end the curse of the bambino. Epstein accomplished this goal within 2 years of taking the job with the Red Sox. Then, in 2007, he replicated that result by winning a second World Series and cementing his legacy as one of the greatest general managers of all time. He accomplished this all at only 33 years old.

Recently Epstein decided to leave Boston, taking his talents to the “Windy City,” to become president of baseball operations for the Cubs. Epstein, once instructed to lift the curse in Boston, is now charged with reversing 103 years of losing in Chicago. Not surprisingly, Epstein began reassembling parts of his dream team from his Boston days. He hired Jed Hoyer as his general manager and Hoyer’s right hand man Jason McLeod as Senior Vice President for Scouting and Player Development. If Epstein is to turn the Cubs into World Champions he needs to draw on similar principles as those he used in Boston while simultaneously utilizing Avant-garde methods of analyzing the game.

When Theo Epstein became the President of the Cubs he caused movement amongst the front offices in baseball. His departure opened up a vacancy in Boston. The Red Sox recently fired manager Terry Francona after an historic collapse that left them out of the playoffs and searching for answers. Soon after these events unfolded, Epstein bolted for Chicago, which left the Red Sox with a number of gaps in their front office and in need of a new direction. Instead of using their considerable clout to attract big name general manager candidates, the Sox focused on recent success and the need for stability. The Sox hired from within, propelling Ben Cherington, an Epstein disciple, to become the Red Sox General Manager at age 37. Cherington attended Amherst College and received a master’s degree in sports management from the University of Massachusetts. He broke into baseball with the Cleveland Indians as a scout and was hired by Dan Duquette, the General Manager of the Red Sox before Theo Epstein, in 1997. He and Jed Hoyer served as co-general managers during Epstein’s leave of absence in 2005 and facilitated the trade for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell.

Cherington’s Co-General Manager during Epstein’s short resignation from the Red Sox was Jed Hoyer. Hoyer, like Cherington, attended an excellent small liberal arts university and broke into baseball at a young age with no major league experience. Hoyer attended Wesleyan University graduating with a degree in history joining the Red Sox in 2002 at the same time as Epstein. Hoyer is most famously known for traveling with Epstein during Thanksgiving to convince Curt Schilling to accept a trade to the Red Sox. Hoyer quickly moved up in the Red Sox organization becoming Assistant General Manager. Not long after, his name began to appear on lists of the top ten next General Managers.

“Hoyer has been at Theo Epstein's right hand since the start of the Red Sox revival. Taking over as Assistant GM after Josh Byrnes left to head up the rebuilding of the Diamondbacks, Hoyer was mentioned by nearly everyone asked as "the next big thing."”[1]

Hoyer was rewarded for his success in Boston when the San Diego Padres hired him as their new General Manager in 2009. He turned a 75-win team in 2009 into a 90-win team in 2010. Following early success in San Diego, Hoyer made the transition from small market team to the big times when his former boss, Epstein, hired him to be the general manager of the Chicago Cubs.

Jed Hoyer’s story is very similar to that of Josh Byrnes. Byrnes went to Haverford College, graduating with a degree in English. Byrnes began his career with the Cleveland Indians, before Dan O’Dowd hired him as an Assistant General Manager of the Colorado Rockies. Epstein recognized Byrnes as an asset to his squad and hired him as an Assistant GM of the Red Sox. That same year, 2005, Byrnes was hired by the Arizona Diamondbacks to become their GM at the age of 35. In 2 years Byrnes took a 77-win team to the 2007 NLCS. His immediate success was followed by some difficult years that led to his firing in 2010. Although his time in Arizona had ended, the Padres quickly hired Byrnes as their Vice President of Baseball Operations. Then, following Hoyer’s departure for the windy city Byrnes became the next Padres General Manager.

The Theo Epstein boomlet has finally sprouted wings and begun to fly on its own. Epstein took a new style of thinking about baseball, money, and ambition and changed the position of General Manager forever. General Managers had commonly been older former players, managers, and executives—not young, educated, enthusiasts with sharp minds and full of confidence. Margaret Meade once said, “Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has.” Meade could easily have been describing Theo Epstein and his disciples. Epstein may still wear the crown in the GM world, but he has created a new crop of forward thinking baseball administrators pent on using the Epstein principles of management to turn losers into winners. Change the philosophy of scouting, drafting, and evaluating talent, while simultaneously trading for and signing players who fit their defensive, offensive, and pitching metrics. The Epstein effect has and will continue to spread, changing the position of General Manager and the game forever.

[1] The Next Ten Top GM Candidates by Will Carroll www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7683

Roy Halladay

2011-10-26T18:42:00.000-07:00

The 2011 Phillies dominated major league baseball with the best record thanks to their starting pitching. When Ruben Amaro Jr. pieced together a rotation of aces, the likes of which we last saw in Atlanta during the 1990’s, he envisioned the starting rotation to be the Phillies key to success. His vision has come to fruition. No pundit would argue that the Phillies could have sustained the best record in Major League Baseball without the likes of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt, and even Vance Worley.

This article will focus on Roy Halladay’s contribution to the team. This year marks Halladay’s second season in a Phillies uniform. Since he stepped on the mound in Philadelphia, Halladay has proven his worth by dominating hitters. His resume in Philadelphia includes a perfect game, a playoff no-hitter, and the 2010 National League Cy Young award. This prosperity derives from pitching fundamentals, work ethic, and tenacity. As Cole Hamels put it,

“There's a reason he’s done so well in his career, and it comes from his incredible work ethic and his desire to win.”[1]

It did, however, take time for Roy Halladay to develop his signature style. 1999 and 2000 proved to be difficult seasons for Halladay. In his first chance to pitch in the big leagues, he experienced control issues. In 1999 Halladay compiled 79 walks in 149.1 innings pitched. In 2000 he resolved some of his control issues, but he became too hittable, giving up 107 hits in 67.2 innings pitched. After being shut down by the Blue Jays, Halladay resolved to rework his mechanics. Instead of throwing from directly over the top, an angle from which the most velocity can be generated, Halladay began to throw from a sixty-degree angle. This “three quarters” angle of pitching allowed Halladay to deceive hitters by deviating from the norm. Throwing from this angle lowered his speed but consequently allowed him to add more sink, cut, and tailing action to his fastball. These variations in the 2-seam fastball became Halladay’s staple, leading to great success.

Halladay saw immediate results. Only once since 2000 had he acheived an earned run average above 3.92. Along with lower earned run averages, Halladay saw his strikeout totals rise and walk totals reach all-time lows. Despite accumulating over two hundred strikeouts many times in his career, Halladay’s pitching style plays to contact. Cutters, sinkers, and tailing fastballs generally do not generate strikeouts, but groundballs. Hitters can more easily time a 91 mph cutter than a 96 mph four-seam fastball, but due to the cutter’s additional movement, Halladay jams the hitter or forces the hitter to hit the top of the ball causing more groundballs. Between 2004 and 2011 Halladay’s groundball to flyball ratio has been as high as 1.60. Due to his fantastic control and his ability to throw both his changeup and curveball for strikes, as well as use them as “put away” pitches, Halladay has dominated hitters. His flexibility is best encapsulated by Halladay’s former teammate Benji Molina.

“Roy is like a machine. He’s the type of pitcher that doesn’t care what happens around him. He still is going to get the batters out any way he can. That’s what makes him a lot better than most.”[2]

In addition to his refined mechanics, three quarters throwing style, and excellent use of his variety of pitches, Halladay embodies the quintessential hard-worker. Halladay diligently works on his routine between starts, utilizing a lifting program, stretching, and cardiovascular workouts to ready himself for his next turn on the hill. According to Phillies manager Charlie Manuel,

"He [Roy] comes in here and he's always doing something…He never sits still. He talks to you very short and then says he has to go running or whatever. He definitely has a routine and a program and he's going to stay on that. Nothing is going to get in his way. That's a commitment every day and that's good."[3]

The third key to Halladay’s success stems from his mentality and approach to pitching. Halladay displays persistence and determination in all games he pitches. This mentality makes him a Cy Young candidate every year, and the ability to potentially pitch a complete game every time. Halladay’s durability eases the strain on the bullpen and solidifies his supremacy at the top of the Phillies rotation. Ten of his 19 wins in 2011 came following a Phillies loss. Fans count on “Doc” Halladay, as he is colloquially known, to ameliorate the pain of a loss by following it up with a victory.

Recently, however, Halladay has revealed a chink in his armor, surrendering more runs in the first inning, 14, than in any other inning. Batters hit .274 in the first inning against Halladay in comparison to the .239 they hit against him overall. During the first inning Halladay has a 3.66 ERA and has given up 34 hits. Although these are average numbers for most pitchers, they show vulnerability rarely portrayed by Doc Halladay.

Despite this minor flaw, Halladay has been the consummate leader of the Phillies staff. His delivery is fluid and compact, with perfect balance midway through his motion, a long stride towards the plate, and a simple follow through. Such elegance and pursuit of perfection are the foundation of Halladay’s dominance and durability.

[1] http://www.jockbio.com/Bios/Halladay/Halladay_they-say.html

[2] http://www.jockbio.com/Bios/Halladay/Halladay_they-say.html

[3] http://articles.nydailynews.com/2010-02-21/sports/27056858_1_work-ethic-cole-hamels-general-manager-ruben-amaro

The Case for Victorino

2011-09-01T17:34:00.000-07:00

The NL MVP Award

The National League MVP race has recently spurred much discussion amongst Baseball's talking heads. The 2011 NL MVP may be decided after the season, but speculation now is allowed and even welcomed. Commonly known names in contention for the award include Matt Kemp of the Dodgers, Ryan Braun of the Brewers, Prince Fielder of the Brewers, and Justin Upton of the Diamondbacks. Interestingly, none of these four players hail from the NL east, the division that boasts the two best winning percentages in the national league.

Matt Kemp would have a lock on the award, but his Dodgers find themselves amongst mediocrity in the middle of the the NL West at 5 games below .500. Just like a combination lock, Kemp has all of the right numbers to be considered and chosen the NL MVP, but his team's lack of contention cuts his chances by a significant amount. Kemp has the best WAR in the NL at 8.1. He sports a .320 batting average, 102 rbi, 31 home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a .965 OPS. If the dodgers were vying for the playoffs, or at least had a winning record, Kemp would receive enough votes to claim the award, but because the award is most "valuable" and not "best" player, he will most likely not win the award this year.

Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder should each buy Matt Kemp a drink because, most likely, one of these Brewers will take home the MVP award instead of the Dodger's center-fielder. Braun has the second best WAR in the NL at 6.7 to go along with a .333 batting average, 25 home runs, 89 rbi, 31 stolen bases, and a .995 OPS. Braun's numbers alone easily put him in contention to win the MVP, and due to the Brewers success this season,we could see the first Jewish NL MVP since Sandy Koufax in 1963. Braun makes a convincing case for the MVP award, but so does his teammate, Prince Fielder. Fielder is the power in the Brewers potent lineup. This season Fielder has compiled a .293 batting average, 29 home runs, 102 rbi, a 4.0 WAR, and a .947 OPS. Braun's numbers dwarf his teammates', but they do not overshadow them enough to exclude Fielder from the MVP conversation. If Fielder turns on the power in September, he could snatch this award away from Braun.

The only other name being consistently mentioned is Justin Upton. Upton, the right fielder for the Diamondbacks, is the Dbacks best player. The Arizona Diamondbacks have unexpectedly made their way past the World Series champion Giants into first place in the west. Upton's application for the MVP award does not muster up to the likes of Kemp of Braun, except that he is the best player on the best team in the NL west. He has a 3.9 WAR, .294 batting average, 26 home runs, 80 rbi, 20 stolen bases, and a .909 OPS. These numbers are far below those of Braun, Fielder, and Kemp, but combined with the Diamondbacks place in the standings, they do put him in contention for the MVP award. Upton would need to have a jaw dropping September to win the award.

One name that is rarely spoken of in the MVP conversation is Shane Victorino. Victorino, the Phillies Center-fielder, is a dark horse candidate for the NL MVP, but should receive more consideration. Victorino, like Kemp, plays Center-field, the captain of the outfield and the player with the most ground to cover. He has proven to be the spark plug in the Phillies lineup whether he bats in the lead-off position, or any other place in the order. At 30 years old, Victorino is having the best season of his career. He has a .307 batting average, 15 home runs, 54 rbi, a .919 OPS, a 5.1 WAR, 14 triples, and he has struck out only 46 times while being walked 44 times. Victorino has grounded into only 2 double plays all season, the same number as Reds pitcher Mike Leake who has 1/5 the number of at bats as Victorino. It is obvious from these numbers that Victorino does not detract from his squad, he is a player without leaks. With Jimmy Rollins' contributions becoming less and less, Ryan Howard's inability to hit for average, and Chase Utley missing the first two months of the season, Victorino has proven to be the the Phillies most valuable hitter. Braun may have better numbers across the board, but it is difficult to make the argument that he is more valuable to his team than Victorino is to the Phillies. The Phillies sport the best record in baseball at 87-46, 41 games above .500. Although their dynamic pitching staff has contributed greatly to their success, it is Victorino who contributes every day instead of every 5th day. He has batted in 5 different spots in the Phillies lineup this season, contributing where ever Charlie Manuel puts him. When Victroino plays well, the Phillies win. He has a .348 batting average, 1.059 OPS, 95 hits, and 66 runs scored in Phillies wins this year in comparison to a .218 batting average, .629 OPS, 29 hits, and 15 runs scored in Phillies losses. Although Victorino's statistics are not as flashy or sexy as Braun, Fielder, and Kemp, they show a most valuable contribution to the best team in baseball. Most likely, this award will end up in Milwaukee, but no voter should cast his or her ballot before seriously considering Shane Victorino, the most valuable choice in the National League.

Philadelphia Vintage Base Ball

2011-08-05T07:18:00.000-07:00

Check out my article on Paul Lukas' Uniwatch website.

Decisions Decisions

2011-07-31T15:47:00.000-07:00

This year's MLB trade deadline has proven exciting. General managers from numerous teams have spent sleepless nights with no one other than their Blackberry for company. Big-name players have moved, minor deals have been made, and contenders have filled holes while teams in the cellar have cut payroll. One fact is certain, no team wins anything by making a trade. Teams may upgrade their talent or replenish their farm systems, but two months of baseball remain unplayed and trades do not always correlate to wins.

Pundits, analysts, and fans listen, watch, and read about every trade rumor that comes across their computer screens, hoping their team's GM will strike a deal to help the winning cause. One aspect of trades that goes overlooked by fans is the sacrifice made by players who are forced to move from one city to the next. Although some players do not face any difficulties due to their young age and bachelor status, many players must leave a city they call home and worry about their family's future.

Let's go through a few examples. The Mets recently traded Carlos Beltran across country to the San Francisco Giants. Beltran had a no-trade clause in his contract allowing him to veto any preposed trade. He used this clause to inform the Mets he would only accept a trade to an NL team contending for the playoffs. His choices were professionally motivated, unrelated to personal matters. Beltran cared little about moving from one coast to the other, putting winning above everything else.

Other players, like the Dodgers' Hiroki Kuroda, chose to invoke his no-trade clause in order to veto all trades, even a few scenarios that put him onto the Red Sox and Yankees. Kuroda formerly pitched in Japan, but when he signed with the Dodgers, he moved his whole life to the United States. His life would once again be turned upside down were he to move from Los Angeles to either Boston or New York. Most would wonder why Kuroda would ever veto such a trade due to the Dodgers' abysmal season and financial troubles coupled with Boston and New York's strong desire to acquire him. Kuroda chose family above winning, a choice that angers fans but does not baffle many players who understand such decisions. Being traded is akin to an army general being transferred from base to base requiring them to relocate their families.

As a Phillies fan, I have experienced the tension and joy that goes into making a big trade deadline acquisition. Had I been a Red Sox or Yankees fan during the negotiations for Hiroki Kuroda, I would not have been pleased with his decision, but my opinion has recently changed. Far too often we as fans see MLB players as chess pieces, easily sacrificed and exchanged, all towards the winning cause, but we overlook the fact that these players are men with families and responsibilities beyond baseball. As fans we should have the right to boo a player for underperforming or refusing to be traded for purely superficial reasons, but not for refusing a trade due to personal reasons. Although players make millions of dollars, and "trades are part of the game," these are not valid enough arguments to be made in favor of bashing a player for refusing a trade due to personal reasons.

Flush with Talent

2011-07-26T13:16:00.000-07:00

Comebacks are rare. Why else would ESPN cover every single underdog story in sports? So it stands to reason that every network would want to write about the Rays. Although most in the baseball world understand and admire the accomplishments of the Rays organization over the last 6 years, this is one comeback story that is only mentioned in passing, maybe due to the fact that most comeback stories concern singular figures, not organizations.

Between 1998 and 2007 the Devil Rays (now the Rays) compiled a whopping zero winning seasons. During those ten seasons the team averaged 97.2 losses per season and only 64.5 wins. That would make them the worst franchise over that time. Not even the recently resurgent Pirates were as bad as the Rays from 1998 to 2007 (91.8 average losses and 89.9 average wins). In 2008 the Devil Rays became the Rays, changed their jerseys and their usual status in winning percentage. Since that time the Rays have won the American League East twice (2008 and 2010), considered the best division in baseball, and have made it as far as the World Series, losing to the Phillies in 2008.

This turnaround is outstanding. How did they do it? During the years of the Devil Rays, the organization stockpiled great young talent. The consolation given to the biggest losers is a high draft pick. Between 1999 and 2008 the Rays never selected higher than 8th, selecting first 4 times. In the three drafts since they have drafted 30th, 17th, and 32nd. With great scouting and draft selections, the Rays propel themselves into the mix every season in the AL east amongst giant spenders like the Red Sox and Yankees. Not all of the high round draft picks have panned out, but many have. Josh Hamilton, selected first overall, left baseball due to alcohol and cocaine issues and never played a game in the majors for the Rays. Rocco Baldelli ended up with a mitochondrial disorder and is no longer in baseball. Success stories include, Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, Evan Longoria, David Price, Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson, Ben Zobrist, and many others.

Despite being ranked 28th in the most recent MLB team valuations the team has recently been compiling lots of wins. They have a small operating budget and rarely sign big name free agents. Joe Madden and his coaching staff, the minor league coaching staffs, as well as the front office personnel have put together a winning package chock full of great talent. The Rays may only have a 53-48 record, but it is good enough for 3rd in the AL east behind two great teams. Yet the Rays’ are in an unique circumstance: they have a wealth of young talent, but many more players in the minor leagues ready to be called up to the majors. As a result, the Rays have been forced to consider trading some of their top young players. B.J. Upton's name has recently surfaced as a hot trade topic as well as James Shields, and even Jeff Niemann and Wade Daves. The reason the Rays are looking to trade these players has everything to do with Desmond Jennings, Alex Cobb, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Chris Archer, and Alex Torres. There is no other team that is forced to trade away great talent because they have better talent knocking at the door. Obviously all of this talent hasn't led the Rays to enough success this season, but most teams would never consider trading the players the Rays have. A perfect example comes from Colorado where Rockies ace Ubaldo Jimenez has been rumored to be traded. He is a top talent entering the prime of his career, and the Rockies have attempted to quell trade talks in the hope they can keep the young righty. The Rays may trade Shields, Davis, or Niemann, all good young talented starting pitchers.

The only organization that keeps up with the Rays amazing drafting and growing scheme is the Atlanta Braves. The Braves have a mid level payroll and consistently bring up great young talent. It would not surprise me if the Rays were to become a Braves-like organization. I say kudos to the Rays on their amazing turnaround and I hope their fans support them better in the future because of any team, the Rays' future looks brightest.

Mind Your Manners

2011-07-13T10:31:00.000-07:00

Recently two major baseball ethics and etiquette issues have surfaced and crowded the headlines. First, Derek Jeter, yes the same one who just collected his 3,000th hit, decided not to attend the All-Star game. Second, a brawl erupted in Boston between the Red Sox and the bottom dwelling Orioles. Let's begin with DJ and his rise and fall.

Last saturday, Derek Jeter became the 28th member of the 3,000 hit club and the first ever Yankee to accomplish the feat. I congratulate Derek on his consistency, health, talent, and longevity, all of which contributed to reaching this milestone. He hit a home run to collect this historic hit and not do allow personal accomplishments to trump the team, Jeter also drove in the eventual game winning run. Unfortunately those who rise the highest have a tendency to fall the hardest (thanks Newton). Jeter has not fallen hard, but his image has taken a small step backwards this past week. One might wonder, "How can Jeter's image be smeared during the only part of the summer when there is a break in regular baseball activities?" The simple answer is that generic baseball fans are stupid. The more complicated answer has to do with the All-Star game and Jeter not handeling a simple situation well.

Why is generic stupidity affecting Derek Jeter? Due to MLB allowing fans to vote on the starters for the All-Star game, Jeter was named the starter for the AL squad. Recently coming off an injury, Jeter was likely to decline to play in the game, which is disrespectful enough, but instead of declining to play Jeter refused to catch one of the many non-stop flights from LaGuardia Airport to Phoenix's Sky Harbor Airport. Jeter may not have deserved to be an All-Star, thus once again questioning the validity of allowing fans to vote on who is an All-Star, but if chosen by the fans, he should have at least humored them and shown up. I know from growing up with three strong willed and immensely bright women that sometimes it is best to humor those people who have influence on you because in the long run it is easier to smile and nod now than to take the verbal tongue lashing that will most likely ensue. You might think Jeter would have liked to attend the game and be cheered by thousands of fans for being selected to his 12th All-Star game as well as reaching 3,000 hits only 2 days prior.

Bud Selig recently stood behind one of his league's star players, saying, "I think I'd have made the same decision that Derek Jeter did." No matter the reason, Jeter should have respected the game that has given him so much over the last 15 years. Jeter's seniority does not give him special status that allows him to skip what I consider obligatory events. Selig's diplomacy is laudable but not right, he should have forced Jeter to attend. Phillies third baseman Placido Polanco, and center fielder Shane Victorino, both voted All-Stars by the fans, have injuries that precluded them from playing in the game, but still travled to Phoenix and heard their names announced before the game, taking their hats of to the fans who were gracious enough to provide them with All-Star status. Maybe Derek Jeter could take a lesson from his peers. Other offenders similar to Jeter include Aramis Ramirez, who when asked to serve refused. This peccadillo is less offensive than Jeter's snubbing of the fans because Ramirez was a manager's choice, but it still shows immaturity and a "better than thou" attitude. In contrast to the bad etiquette of Jeter and Ramirez is Albert Pujols, who publicly expressed interest in being a part of the All-Star team. Robinson Cano's unbridled joy following winning the Home Run Derby, showed why attending the All-Star game has its perks. Jeter should have hopped on a private jet and attended the game, he could even have brought Minka Kelly, i'm sure no one would have minded that.

In other baseball etiquette news the Boston Red Sox played the Baltimore Orioles this past weekend. Seeing as these two teams play three to four series a season, what could be the interest? Well, in lue of the Sox trouncing of the Orioles (big surprise), an amateur boxing match erupted during Friday night's game. In the right corner weighing in at 230 lbs was Orioles bullpen pitcher Kevin Gregg and in the left corner weighing in at a surprisingly 230 lbs was Red Sox DH David Ortiz. Gregg threw 3 straight fastball inside to Ortiz, one of which seemed intentional. Ortiz took offense to these inside heaters and took a few steps closer to Gregg gesticulating towards him while most likely warning him, "I'm David Ortiz and I will eat you alive if you continue to almost plunk me in the ribs with 94mph fastballs." Gregg, probably frustrated with a thus far subpar season, painfully one-sided game, and Ortiz's bravado barked back. If not for the home plate umpire putting his body between the two hot heads the bell may have rung for round one to begin.

Instead Ortiz returned to the batter's box and awaited the 3-0 pitch from Gregg. Gregg threw a 4th consecutive inside fastball which would have resulted in ball 4. Here lies the quagmire. It is traditional that on a 3-0 count, the batter does not swing. Sometimes, managers, to my dismay, allow their better hitters to swing away 3-0 thinking it may be a perfect pitch due to the likelihood that the hitter will not swing and the need of the pitcher to throw a strike. If Ortiz's stroll to the mound was "strike one", swinging at the 3-0 pitch was "strike two". "Strike three" came next, when Ortiz hit a lazy fly ball to right field and instead of respectfully jogging to first base the slugger took a few steps, stopped moving and began to retreat to the confines of the Red Sox dugout. Gregg, seeing this breach of baseball etiquette decided is was his civic duty to remind Ortiz to run to first. This did not sit well with Ortiz who decided that "them be fightin' words" and proceeded to charge the mound and swing widely at Gregg who swung back. Benches cleared, punches were thrown, and foul words exchanged. Not surprisingly Ortiz and Gregg were ejected for their crimes, and luckily neither player actually made contact during the bout thus lessening the possibility of injury. During the myriad of post-game interviews, Gregg capitulated his side of the story and even left a warning saying,

"We're not backing down. We're not scared of them," Gregg said. "Them and their $180 million payroll, we don't care. We're here to play the game and we have just as much right to play the game, and we're going to do everything we can to win."

Sox starter Josh Beckett backed his teammate saying,

"I felt like [Gregg] should have been thrown out before any of that [expletive] even happened," Beckett said. "The rule is, if something like that happens and you leave the mound, you're automatically ejected. It wasn't handled that way and now we've got other guys probably looking at fines."

No matter who is right or wrong, brawls should never happen because of a player disrespecting the game and not running out a fly ball. Gregg was obviously trying to get Ortiz out by throwing inside fastball, eventually succeeding, but he also bears some blame by nearly missing Ortiz's chest with a 94mph fastball that would most likely have caused some damage had it connected with its target. In the end, these things happen and the most important thing is that both players and teams' egos shrink and tempers subside, but I do not realistically see that happening. The Red Sox travel to Baltimore on July 18th for a three game series at Camden Yards. Sparks may fly, but hopefully they will not be due to a lack of etiquette or respect of the game. Both David Ortiz and Derek Jeter could use to reread the book of unwritten rules of baseball, which can be found in the plaque gallery at the baseball Hall of Fame. Nonetheless my hope is that both events are behind them because the second half of the season is set to begin tomorrow, the trade deadline looms, and teams begin to fortify their resumes for a chance to play October baseball. With so many great headlines and so much baseball to be played let us focus for a moment on Jeter and Ortiz's transgressions but not for long.

All-Star Game and Home Run Derby

2011-07-11T12:02:00.000-07:00

The 2011 All-star game festivities begin tonight in Phoenix, Arizona. Chase Field, home of the Arizona Diamondbacks, will be buzzing with excitement in anticipation of seeing 8 of the best home run hitters in Major League baseball display their power in the Home Run Derby. Tomorrow the break will culminate with the All-Star game in which the National League will compete against the American League with the winner collecting home field advantage in the World Series. For the last few weeks much of the baseball buzz has centered around the selection or election of the now 84 All-Stars. Although the All-Star break is just that, a break, the select few (11%) players who are honored to call themselves 2011 All-Stars will arrive in Arizona to represent their respective squads as well as add more credentials to their already packed resumes.

Since all MLB teams are comprised of 25 players, one might wonder why 84 players were named All-Stars. 25 + 25 is 50 isn't it? For those of you who don't find yourselves familiar with the rules for choosing All-Stars let's go through them.

The way it is done: For starters (no pun intended), each team compiles a roster of 34 players. The starting position players, not the pitcher, are chosen by the fans. The fans vote for more than a month before the game for the most deserving players as well as the most popular players. The top vote getter at each position starts for their respective league. The players/coaches/managers get to vote for the next 16 roster spots. They vote on backup position players for each team as well as 8 pitcher spots. If the top vote getter in the player poll was already chosen by the fans, the second place winner takes that spot. The last 9 spots are chosen by the manager of AL for his squad, and the NL manager for his team. They have no restrictions on who they choose, except they must choose the DH. The managers choose these last players in consultation with the commissioners office and other managers in their league. Finally, the fans get to another chance to vote on the final 34th player (non-pitcher) added to the roster. The only other way to make the team is to replace an already chosen All-Star who is injured or a starting pitcher who pitched the day before the break begins (this season that would be this past sunday).

Now, these rules may satisfy MLB and the majority of baseball fans, but I am neither impressed nor
satisfied.

The way I would do it: I have no issues with the number of players on each roster because fans want to see as many All-Stars as possible play in the game and doing so implies having pitchers throw 1 to 2 innings and position players get 1 to 2 at-bats. I am a notorious hater of fans voting for the starting position players because 50% or more of the players are chosen due to popularity or past success as opposed to the purpose of the game, which is to reward and honor this (half) season's best players. The players/coaches/managers/general managers should vote on all of the starting players as well as one backup for each position. Then, similar to the method already used, the manager of the team, in consultation with his coaching staff, fills in the rest of the roster. I am a big fan of the fan final vote because it allows the fans to have some affect on the game as well as provides them a chance to possibly get another of their team's players in the All-Star game. MLB requires that every team, regardless of deservingness, send at least one representative to the All-Star game. This rule should remain because all fans should have the chance to cheer for someone they know in the game, as well as be proud of their team. I would also let the fans choose the starting pitcher. The manager of the respective team chooses 4 pitchers already named to the team and the fans vote on one of the four to start the game. This allows for fan involvement that does not negatively affect who is and is not an All-Star but still minutely affects the game.

In a perfect "Ben Horrow" world: This situation is what I would love to see happen to the All-star break but has a 0% chance of ever coming to fruition. I would get rid of the All-Star game all together. I would give every player a, much needed, 3 day break in the middle of the season while keeping the home run derby and nothing else. All-Stars would be chosen by the players/managers/coaches/GM's at the end of the season so as to choose these honors based off of a whole season's effort as opposed to just the first 90 or so games. For Phillies fans, think Raul Ibanez in 2009. Ibanez posted 22 home runs, 60 rbi, a .303 batting average, and 1.015 on base + slugging in 64 games played before the All-Star break. Following the break, he compiled 12 home runs, 33 rbi, .232 batting average, and .774 on base + slugging in 70 games. Although his final numbers are good, they may not have been All-Star caliber. The opposite situation occurs as well. Many times a player has a rough first 90 games but finds the throttle following the short mid-season break, finishing with great "All-Star" like numbers. Why should this type of player be excluded from the coveted All-Star status while 2009 Raul Ibanez garners All-Star status for playing excetionally in 64 specific games. In my book, the actual playing of the All-Star game is meaningless. MLB attempted to insert meaning into the game by ruling that the winning team's league receives home field advantage in the world series. This is arbitrary enough that I would just have the winner of the home run derby's league receive this honor, or better yet revert back to the previously implemented method of determining home field advantage, the team with the better record.

Now that I've solved the All-Star game problem let's move on to the home run derby. The other major event during the All-Star break proves fun to watch and from what players have said, fun to participate in. In the recent past MLB has asked the most prolific home run hitters in each league to participate in the derby and the best/first four to agree participate in the event. The 2011 derby participants found their way into the contest by being selected by the predetermined "captain" of their league's derby "team". There are no teams in the Home Run derby, each player competes against each other, thus having a captain who arbitrarily selects the other contestants leads to Rickie Weeks, Robinson Cano, Matt Kemp, and Matt Holliday participating. Weeks, Cano, Kemp, and Holliday are all players who hit primarily for average but have hit a decent number of home runs this up to this point in the season. Although they may very well make their captains proud, I would rather see players who swing for the fences often and think later. Players like Ryan Howard, Mike Stanton, Adam Dunn, Carlos Pena, and Justin Upton might have been better selections. These players strike out an obscene amount of time, and do not have the best batting averages, but they have one thing that cannot be taught, raw power. Choosing these players would be more fun for the fans as well as the players. In addition, of the 5 players named above, only Upton has All-Star caliber numbers. Let the big boys show off their muscles.

So, in the end, non of the changes proposed in this article will ever see their way into the All-Star game or home run derby, but it is always important to constantly consider improvements. If I surveyed 100 baseball fans asking, "How would you improve the All-Star game?" I might get 25-50 different responses. All-Star games, no matter the sport, will always have flaws and will always disappoint some, but ultimately the All-Star game's purpose is to entertain the fans. If MLB entertains at least 67% (2/3) of fans who watch the game and its subsidiary events than more power to the league for making more people happy than vote for a presidential candidate. Roy Halladay will start the 2011 All-Star game for the NL while Jared Weaver will start for the AL. I can only hope that Halladay, Weaver, and the rest of the All-Stars enjoy themselves and entertain the fans to the maximum. Happy All-Star break to all.

Young Talent

2011-07-08T11:22:00.000-07:00

In light of Angels outfield prospect Mike Trout's promotion to the majors I thought it applicable to discuss the best young talent in baseball. MLB teams face difficult choices when young players succeed in minor leagues to the point at which they reach the cusp of the Majors. Trout is 19 years old, young even for Major League Baseball. Not all players are created equal, thus this promotion could be a great success for the Angels organization and Trout. The opposing view, that Trout is too young and needs more minor league experience, may be more popular amongst pundits and experts alike, but as one scout said of Trout, "You can put Trout as the main entree. He's ready." (according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports)

Overall, major league clubs must decide if a player is both baseball deserves a promotion as well as mature enough to handle the speed, excitement, disappointment, and media frenzy surrounding the majors. Trout seems to have the talent for the majors. In 75 games at AA Arkansas he sported a .324 batting average, .415 on-base percentage, .950 OPS, collecting 94 hits, scoring 69 runs, hitting 9 home runs, knocking in 27 rbi, stealing 28 bases, and collecting 38 walks. Trout has plate discipline, a knak for getting on base, some power, speed on the bases, and a tendency to produce runs. The Angels need help in many of these categories relying on the dynamic pitching of Dan Haren, Jared Weaver, and Jordan Walden to propel them to one game behind the Texas Rangers in the American League West. The Angels rank 11th in the AL in both runs scored and team OBP, both of which are below the league average. Mike Scioscia's teams usually play small ball. They steal bases, walk, and sacrifice in order to win. Trout's stats show he will fit into this style of play perfectly, giving the Angels another weapon on the base paths and at the plate.

The three most prominent young players currently in the majors are Starlin Castro of the Cubs, Freddie Freeman and Jason Heyward of the Braves, and Mike Stanton of the Marlins. None of these players was born after March of 1990 where as Trout is a whole year younger. Castro's career began on a high note going 2-5 with 6 rbi a home run and a triple in his MLB debut. He continues to impress and improve. Castro hits for a high average, gets on base, and despite not putting it all together defensively he has an unbelievable arm and above average range at shortstop. Jason Heyward has proven to be a great mix of power and speed from the left side of the plate with a very good arm and speed in the outfield. Freddie Freeman, like Heyward, has shown immense power to all fields and the ability to play a good first base. Mike Stanton may possess more power than Heyward and Freeman combined, his mammoth home runs continue to amaze baseball fans everywhere. He shows speed and a cannon-like arm in right field, but his propensity to strike out too often constricts his assent to complete hitter status.

The Angels selected Trout out of high school with the 25th pick in the first round of the 2009 MLB draft. Two other big name prospects taken directly from high school in the same round and draft as Trout include Donavan Tate of the Padres and Shelby Miller of the Cardinals. Tate would probably find himself in the big leagues had he not been plagued with the injury bug and a suspension for PED's. Miller is a pitcher for an organization that sports a healthy and talented pitching staff. Due to these circumstances, neither player has cracked the major leagues, but both remain very close. For another bit of perspective go no further than Ken Griffey Jr. Brought up as a 19 year old, Jr. compiled 61 rbi, 19 home runs, 120 hits, 61 runs scored, a .264 batting average, and .329 on-base percentage in 127 game played. He finished 2nd in rookie of the year voting and the next year he made the all star team as a 20 year old. With 73 games left in the season, Trout could produce for the team, but we will not know his true potential until he starts at least as many games as Griffey played in his inaugural season.

Trout may become a huge major league star, touting god-like numbers in the stat columns as well as in his bank account. On the other hand he may be over rated, and never make any impact in the Majors. There exist a number of other scenarios in between those two, but for the #2 ranked prospect in all of baseball according to Baseball America, he has high expectations to meet. Personally I hope Trout finds success in the majors even if it isn't stardom because the let down that would befall him were to fail would crush any man's spirit. These complicated and difficult decisions fall to the general manager and his many associates; to them I wish good luck because bringing up a 19 year is a gutsy move. Trout is not the first talented youngster to be thrown into the majors before his 20th birthday and he will not be the last, so until then we can only watch and see.

Attitude Problems

2011-06-30T12:45:00.000-07:00

Crack!
Johnny, an 11-year old little leaguer swings with ferocity, hoping to hit the ball as hard and as far as possible. Maybe he does so to make his parents proud, prove to his friends that his small frame does not imply a lack of power, or to prove something to his older brother. Despite the reason, the youngster fails to hit the ball very far, instead popping it up to the shortstop. In disgust the hitter walks up the first base line readying himself to return discouragingly to the dugout. Instead, the shortstop drops the pop-up and then hurries a throw to first base that goes 3 feet over the first baseman's head hitting the fence next to the dugout. Wallowing in his lack of power Johnny does not hear his coach, his teammates, and all of the parents in the crowd screaming for him to run to first base, and by the time he comprehends the situation the first baseman has already retrieved the ball and tagged first base completing the out.

Despite feeling depressed and embarrassed for Johnny, this moment depicts a rudimentary yet crucial baseball lesson. Johnny, as well as all young baseball players, learn that no matter what happens, always run it out. Whether the hitter pops it up foul to the third baseman or hits a home run, he or she should always run hard to first base. Although 9/10 times a weak popup in the infield will be caught for an out deeming the act of hustling to first base a waste, there exists a chance that the fielder will drop the ball. Many times in sports, players will weigh risks and rewards, quickly calculating in their minds whether to attempt a deep pass or to dump the ball off to the running back, or try and take on 3 defenders instead of waiting for your teammates to run down court. All sports involve split second decisions in which a player decides to make the safe play with less likelihood of reward or to attempt the spectacular play with higher risks but greater rewards. In baseball these decisions occur often, but the decision to hustle or not should never be one of them.

A player who does not hustle or run the ball out, not only embarrasses themselves, but disrespects the game as well. The decision not to hustle is one in which the player puts themselves ahead of their team and the game. In little league, coaches use such occurrences as learning opportunities for the youngsters, a time to teach them that not hustling is wrong. When a professional baseball player does not hustle or run out a seemingly routine play, fans boo, managers yell, and reporters ask questions. Fans understand, to some extent, that players will not always get a hit or make the spectacular catch, but they expect that a man who plays a game for a living and gets paid 40 times as much money to do so as a public school teacher does to tame and educate rowdy 11-year olds will put all his effort into an act as simple as running. Managers want their team to win, and winning first and foremost comes from playing hard and playing intelligently. Not hustling constitutes laziness and stupidity, thus most managers will not accept lackadaisical and asinine play. Reporters will berate players with questions pertaining to the lack of effort, possibly over-examining the play causing the player to respond with anger, another bad move.

Recently such situations have "popped up" in Major League Baseball. As a Phillies fan I still remember June 5th, 2008 when Jimmy Rollins hit a pop up to shallow left field with runners on 2nd and 3rd base and 2 outs. Reds shortstop Paul Janish dropped the ball allowing Carlos Ruiz to score. Rollins jogged apathetically to first base where he remained when the play finished. Had Rollins been running hard, he would have easily made it safely to second base. One inning later Rollins did not join his teammates on the field because Charlie Manuel benched him. When asked about the play after the game Rollins said, "There is no explanation," Rollins said.

"I just didn't do it. It happens every once in a while. Sometimes the manager gets you. It shouldn't happen. I'm not disappointed in myself. I know better. Just go out there and make sure I don't do it again. Nothing to get disappointed about. Something you learn from. Don't do it again."

Despite Rollins' unenthusiastic play the Phillies finished the season in 1st place in the NL East and won the world series. Rollins' lack of effort did not affect the game or the season adversely, but it represented a style of play that, if contagious, could cause a team to lose respect, fans, and games.

Even more recently, Phillies rookie right fielder Dominic Brown scalded a ground ball to Oakland A's second baseman Jemile Weeks who bobbled the ball, recovered and easily threw out the speedy Brown. Brown did not hustle up the first base line, making what could have been a close play into a routine out. When asked after the game Brown said,

"It was definitely a wake-up call, I wasn't even thinking about it until I talked to Charlie. I was like, 'You know what, that's not my style of play. I'm not mentioning no names, but a couple guys got on me, which is good," Brown said. "I was wrong. My dad got on me. He said, 'You need to run the ball out and I'm not going to say anything else.' He got on me pretty tough about it."

Brown's manager, teammates, and even father found it upsetting to see such a bright young talent not playing the game correctly. Dominic responded the next day by hitting a home run and a double against Josh Beckett. Although home runs and doubles do not make up for Brown's mental error the previous game, it shoes the resilience needed to be an everyday Major Leaguer.

Chicago White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen never hides his emotions, cringing during losses and celebrating wildly during wins. He never shies away from talking to the media and has always called out his players and sometimes even his superiors when he is unhappy. Guillen's center fielder Alex Rios popped up in foul territory to Colorado Rockies first baseman Todd Helton on tuesday lazily jogging up the first base line. After Rios' next at bad Guillen benched him for his lack of hustle. Unlike Brown and Rollins Rios barely commented on the play saying,

"It happened last night, and what can you do? [Guillen] had to do what he had to do, and it’s all good. Let’s move forward."

Guillen's response perfectly depicts the attitude of spectators when professional athletes become lazy.

"I don’t think I send the message to him — I just send the message to the team. I think the worst thing that can happen to any manager is when the players don’t play the game right. I’m a big baseball fan. We have people in the stands watching us play. As long as I’m here, I’m not going to let it happen. I don’t have nothing against Rios. . . . I never criticize my players for being 0-for-4 or striking out, but I will criticize my players when they’re not playing the way they should be playing."

No matter your size, age, or skill level, every athlete should hustle. In a competition, apathy is akin to giving up. Major Leaguers are paid exorbatent amounts of money to play a game. Fans revere professional athletes, wishing they could switch places with them for even one day. Professional baseball players are blessed to play instead of work for their salaries, being compensated for it very well. In doing so they become icons who, at times, may not perform up to their potential, but must always remember to play hard. No play is ever over until the umpire says out or safe, and no player should ever assume anything because to do so is to become a prima donna instead of a professional. Whether it is 11-year old Johnny or a two time All-star outfielder like Alex Rios, all players at every level should play with purpose and vigor. Respect the game, hustle, and play intelligently, these three axioms ring true at all times and should never be forgotten.

The Hook

2011-06-21T12:25:00.000-07:00

As a former pitcher, my baseball specialty is pitching. Previously I wrote about the changeup, and in continuing the series on different pitches, I will now focus on the curveball. First it is important to rectify one glaring misconception about the curveball. Despite its name, a curveball rarely curves. The closest pitch that comes to curving is a slider, but it is better described by its given name because it slides across the plate. When I was younger and I mentioned throwing a curveball, those adults in my life who thought they understood baseball would tell me that one throws a curveball by snapping their wrist when throwing the pitch. Sadly, yet not surprisingly, these self-determined "baseball experts" had it all wrong. The wrist snapping motion will produce something closer to a slider or possibly a “slurve” (in between a curveball and slider). A slider is not only difficult to throw, but also a dangerous pitch for a young pitcher to throw, whose body hasn't fully developed.

A true curveball has a 12-6 motion. Imagine a clock, with 12 o'clock at the top and 6 o'clock at the bottom. A curveball loops from the top of the strike zone (12 o'clock) to the bottom of the zone (6 o'clock). It is classified as a breaking ball because the pitch literally has a breaking point—the point at which the ball drops from the 12 o'clock position. Curveball speeds can vary depending on the pitcher's strength, arm speed, and mechanics. An average major league curveball clocks in between 70 and 83 mph. Given that the average fastball speed is 90 mph, a curveball constitutes a solid difference in velocity, something a pitcher needs to be effective.

A classic curveball grip has the pitcher find the backwards "C" on the ball that is created by the seams and place his pointer finger and middle finger side-by-side with the pointer finger on the top seam that makes up the "C". Next the thumb is placed seam on the bottom of the ball. The ring finger and pinky finger are curled under and away from the ball. While gripping a curveball is simple, throwing the pitch correctly takes much practice and concentration.

The curveball, unlike the changeup, has a specific arm motion attached to it. If a pitcher takes his arm with the back of the hand facing up, and then turns the arm 90 degrees clockwise as if to give the thumb's up sign, he is ready to throw the ball. Using the aforementioned grip, he throws the curveball with a chopping arm motion while simultaneously letting the ball roll off his fingers so as to create a tight spin. Look at the arm motion involved in throwing a curveball in this slow motion shot. Notice the chopping motion and the way Lincecum holds the ball; they are both classic curveball attributes. This spin and grip cause the ball to arc in a parabolic motion. If thrown improperly, the ball may sail on the pitcher or sometimes land in front of the plate. Controlling the curveball isn't easy and takes practice.

Mastering the curveball can instantly improve a pitcher's abilities on the mound. When I first began throwing the curveball I could not throw it consistently for a strike, but I used it as an 0-2 or 1-2 count pitch in order to strike out the hitter. In those situations the curveball is best thrown so that the ball appears to be a strike but then, because of the spin, breaks out of the strike zone and lands below the knees of the hitter. Hitters will see a ball that looks to be slower and in the strike zone but instead ends up at their feet, thus causing them to swing over the pitch. Eventually, I learned as most pitchers do, to throw the curveball for a strike, improving my pitching abilities even more. Hitters adapt to the pitching they face. If a pitcher does not learn to throw the curve for a strike, hitters will recognize the curveball, will know it will be a ball, and refrain from swinging.

Most high school and college pitchers throw the curveball, but many abandon it in favor of the slider because a slider can be thrown with greater velocity, and can be easier to throw for a strike. Nonetheless, many major league pitchers who throw curveballs do so with great success. Felix Hernandez, Adam Wainwright, and Tim Lincecum throw three of the best curveballs currently in the majors. Historically, no one threw a better curveball than Sandy Koufax. His legendary curveball earned him Hall of Fame status. In this video, Cliff Lee demonstrates the effectiveness of a curveball. Start watching the video at the 30 second mark and watch until the 50 second mark. Within those 20 seconds, Lee displays a great looping curveball. There he is throwing the pitch to a right handed hitter, but when a pitcher is facing a hitter who hits from the same side that the pitcher throws, a breaking ball such as a curveball can be devastating and unhittable.

So, to recap, a curveball is a breaking ball that doesn't actually curve, but instead loops from 12 o'clock to 6 o'clock. It is a good pitch for a young teenager to learn and add to their repertoire. Major-leaguers use it by playing it off of the fastball due to the curveball's difference in speed and its break.

Setting The Table

2011-06-20T11:11:00.000-07:00

What do Jose Reyes, Ichiro, and Juan Pierre have in common? If you guessed that they are all career leadoff hitters, then you are correct. Every player in Major League Baseball is described by their defensive position. PA announcers around the league announce players by their defensive positions. Likewise, fans will refer to players as "the shortstop" or " the catcher." Players are sometimes referred to by their most common offensive position in the batting order, but these occurrences are less frequent. Even though baseball fans choose to call players by defensive positions, certain offensive positions remain important and unique. Specific spots in the batting order such as 1-5, 8 and 9 have significance to them, just like defensive positions. For example, the fourth hitter in the lineup is usually reserved for the player with the most power and the best ability to drive in runs.

The leadoff position in the batting order has extreme importance as well. The leadoff hitter has to have speed, good base running ability, and most importantly, the ability to get on base. The first hitter in the lineup is responsible for reaching first base safely however he can, so that the big bats that follow can score him. Whether a team is built upon manufacturing runs using bunts, sacrifices, stolen bases, or hit-and-runs, or built on home run hitting, every team needs a qualified and productive leadoff hitter.

Leadoff hitters should excel in specific statistical categories in order to prove their worth. These statistics have evolved over time. In the past, a hitter with a high batting average and lots of stolen bases would be considered a good leadoff hitter. Players that fit this mold include Kenny Lofton, Craig Biggio, and Rickey Henderson. Biggio and Henderson both compiled over 3,000 hits in their careers and all three players stole at least 400 stolen bases. These players were among the best at the leadoff position, finding numerous ways to get hits including bunting for singles and using their speed to beat out infield singles. Despite the success of these types of players, , managers in 2011 do not look to those strengths when choosing their leadoff hitters.

Instead, managers look for players with high on-base percentages (or “OBP”). As a result, players like Jayson Werth, Kevin Youkilis, David Eckstein, and Ryan Theriot find themselves leading off for their respective teams despite lacking blazing speed or frequent hits. These players consistently get on base, whether by hit, walk, or getting hit by pitch. None, except Werth, has ever shown above average speed, but their responsibility is not to steal bases. All four players have career on base percentages over .340, and career batting averages below .291. Werth and Youkilis are considered doubles hitters with above average power. Such hitters would not usually find themselves leading off, but their ability to give their teammates chances to collect RBIs separates them from other faster leadoff hitters.

The key to Werth and Youkilis’s success is their high pitches seen per plate appearance (or “P/PA”). Both see over 4 pitches per plate appearance, ranking them in the top 15 in MLB this season. P/PAis an indicator of plate discipline and patience. Usually a P/PA over 3.90 is considered good and anything over 4.00 is great. Leadoff hitters should sport high P/PAs because as the first hitter of the game, they have the responsibility to enable his teammates to see the types of pitches the pitcher throws, his speed, and accuracy. Players who have high P/PA and high OBP usually hit well with two strikes and foul lots of pitches off, thus putting in play only a pitch they want. These players provide other benefits for the rest of the lineup. In addition to allowing fellow teammates a better look at the pitcher, players with high P/PA cause the opposing pitcher to throw more pitches. This is important because the game has evolved from a time when pitchers had no pitch counts to the present, where pitchers begin games with a maximum number of pitches they can throw before exiting the game. If a team wants to exhaust a pitcher, hitters with high P/PA will do the trick.

Eckstein and Theriot fit the mold of players who may not have great talent but are hustlers. These players are not physically gifted like many of their counterparts.Instead, they play a cerebral game, outsmarting the opposing team and out-hustling them. David Eckstein played 10 seasons in Major League Baseball and compiled 143 hit-by-pitches. When batting, Eckstein always stood very close to the plate, forcing pitchers to either throw the ball where he wanted to hit it or to hit him. Both possibilities result in Eckstein reaching base. In addition, both he and Ryan Theriot are smart base runners. Despite not accruing lots of stolen bases, both infielders scored, on average, one run every other game over their careers (Eckstein-.535, Theriot-.529). Both hitters read the ball well and thus knew when to go from first to third or when to turn a single into a double.

Leadoff hitters have the dubious job of beginning the process of scoring runs. Getting on base, staying on base, and then scoring runs are responsibilities that fall to the first hitters in the batting order. Recently, these hitters have not all fit the previous model of the first hitter in the lineup, but despite not having Ricky Henderson-like speed or an Ichiro-like batting average, today's leadoff hitters still produce runs. Seeing lots of pitches, taking an extra base, and making few mistakes make a good modern day leadoff hitter. Hitters will probably never be known by the position they held in the batting order because such positions are fickle and sometimes from game to game. Despite this fact, the leadoff position, like the clean-up (4th spot) role, possesses special qualifications for which only a select few players qualify.

The Injury Bug

2011-06-15T08:01:00.000-07:00

In sports vernacular, the "disabled list" (“DL”) or "injured reserve" are commonly used terms thrown around as if the average inhabitant of the earth understands its meaning without the need for further explanation. For those unfamiliar with these terms, they describe a special status given to athletes with injuries in order to allow substitute players to temporarily replace them for the duration of their injury. If I sprain my ankle running, I still come into work or go to class, but professional athletes do not have that luxury. Recently Derek Jeter, who is in pursuit of 3,000 hits, attempted to leg out a slowly hit ground ball and strained his calf muscle. From the moment Jeter left Monday's game due to injury, the media has offered conjecture as to the severity of his injury. Will he will be placed on the disabled list? And, of course, how this will affect his quest to accomplish a goal that only 27 other Major League Baseball player have reached in the sports 230+ years of existence?

Jeter's injury probably won't adversely affect his team's play or their chances to be competitive, especially if his stint on the DL is short. Unfortunately, for many teams, most of the time that is not the case. Many times, an injury, depending on the type, length of recovery time, and who is injured, can dramatically affect a team and its chances of winning. The Minnesota Twins finished first in the AL central last season making the playoffs for the second consecutive season. This season they find themselves in last place mostly due to injuries. The 2011 Twins roster looks fairly similar to the 2010 roster, which begs the question, "Why have they been so bad this season after such a successful 2010 campaign?" The Twins' star players are without a doubt Joe Mauer, Justin Mourneau, and Delmon Young. Mauer has played in only 11 out of 65 games this season, Mourneau has missed 10 games, and Young has missed 20. Three key players on the DL has been the leading contributor to the Twins' struggles. Injuries, especially when afflicted upon smaller market teams with one or two key players, can plummet a first place team to the cellar.

Bigger market teams may avoid this plight. For An example bigger market teams affected but not debilitated by injuries are the Philadelphia Phillies and San Francisco Giants. Recently, the Phillies, for the first time all season, put out their original starting lineup. Chase Utley, Shane Victorino, Roy Oswalt, Joe Blanton, Carlos Ruiz, Dominic Brown, and at least three bullpen pitchers have all visited the disabled list this season. Only recently have the Phillies had a starting 9 with no bench players. Because the team did not lose key players like Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard, and Placido Polanco to injury, the team has sustained its winning ways. But only a team with talent like the Phillies, Yankees, or Red Sox can sustain a high winning percentage while suffering numerous injuries to crucial players.

The San Francisco Giants lost star catcher Buster Posey for the rest of the season, second baseman Freddie Sanchez for an indeterminate amount of time, and will only now get third baseman Pablo Sandoval back in the lineup after a long DL stint. The Giants, like the Phillies, haven't lost all of their key assets and thus remain afloat and competitive despite injuries to 3/5 of their starting infield. Pitchers Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, Brian Wilson, and Sergio Romo have all remained healthy, thus allowing the Giants to retain their lead in the NL west. Not all teams are so lucky. The Twins are only one example of a smaller market team where 2-3 injured stars have lead to a drop in the standings. The A's and Angels have suffered similar fates. The 2011 Oakland A's were destined to win because of their young but formidable pitching staff. Regrettably, key pitchers Andrew Bailey, Brett Anderson, Dallas Braden, and Josh Outman have all succumbed to the DL for short periods of time. Anderson recently received good news regarding his elbow pain. At first Anderson's meeting with "Tommy John" expert Dr. James Andrews raised alarm bells, but ultimately his injury only required 6 weeks of rehab instead of major surgery followed by 18 months of rehab.

Not all teams are blessed with a prognosis like the A's pitcher Anderson. Last season, Stephen Strasburg burst onto the scene throwing 100 mph and winning baseball games, something few Washington Nationals pitchers have been able to accomplish. He left a game a few months after his debut with tightness in his elbow and received a diagnoses requiring Tommy John surgery. He remains injured, and most likely will not pitch again in the majors until August. In his case, the Nationals not only lose his stellar pitching, but they also miss the thousands more fans that would have attend games in D.C to see Strasburg.

Injuries are not always an awful scenario for a team. Sometimes injuries allow teams to call up highly touted prospects who otherwise wouldn't be called up. Other times injuries cause a general manager to make a trade that leads to better results than expected. Although these situations occur, injuries, especially to starters, always have negative aspects to them. In Derek Jeter's case, his team may barley miss his play, but his pursuit of 3,000 hits will be put on hold. Jimmy Rollins, the Phillies shortstop, suffered a similar injury to Jeter's current calf strain, and when asked about it, said,
"The best advice I can give Derek is, you’re going to get healed in the offseason."
He also mentioned that despite returning to play last season, his calf injury never fully healed until December."When you think your good, you’re not even close," remarked Rollins.
Essentially Rollins is telling Jeter, "Just because you’re about to become the first Yankee to reach 3,000 hits, the 27th major leaguer of all time to accomplish the feat, and secure your eventual induction into the Baseball hall of Fame, don't rush coming back because that may just worsen the injury." This seems to be good advice from someone who plays the same position with similar energy and competitiveness, and suffered a similar injury.

Jimmy Rollins is right. Players should make sure they are healthy before returning to the lineup, no matter how much their team needs them to play because other factors are stake. At the same time, baseball players are commonly referred to as wimpy athletes because they go to the disabled list with injuries like a mild calf strains, blisters, and elbow tightness. In hockey and football players regularly play with injuries more serious than those just mentioned, and such behavior is seen as gallant by fans who see such players as putting their team and teammates ahead of their own personal health. However, such behavior is foolish, especially for injuries like concussions, which can be sustained at any time and have few physical symptoms. I do not have a problem with a player playing injured as long as it is determined that the injury will not affect their play and will not have lasting affects on their health. But when players play through serious injuries, they need to rethink their decision. These injuries may not just affect the rest of their sports career—they may affect them for the rest of their lives.

I seriously injured my elbow pitching in high school. The injury was bad enough that my Orthopedist told me that I needed Tommy John surgery if I was to return to the mound. Instead of going through the surgery and extensive rehab, however, I opted out of the surgery and never pitched ever again. Although I still think about whether I made the right choice, overall I know that not pitching again is probably the best and healthiest choice. Although these decisions are never easy, especially when they affect one's livelihood (in professional sports), players need to consider all of their options and do what is best for their health, which sometimes means sitting out for long periods of time. So, I say to Derek Jeter, 3,000 hits will happen, and despite the media hoopla it does not matter when. So sit out, rehab and return healthy, strong, and ready to join the 3,000 hit club.

Power Rankings June 13th

2011-06-13T13:17:00.000-07:00

Top Ten Teams as of June 13th: On Mondays, most sports websites come out with their power rankings. Power rankings are a complete ranking of teams in a sports league from top to bottom. Usually websites list the team, their record and then a small piece about how they have been playing lately. Power rankings often are superficial, worth only a quick glace because they provide little information and are fairly subjective. I find baseball power rankings uninteresting because they rarely surprise me, and untrustworthy due to lack of substance. That being said, for sports for which I have less in-depth knowledge, I like power rankings. They provide me with a quick overall summary rather than requiring me tolook into in depth stats and other analysis to get a sense of what is going on.

Despite my lack of enthusiasm for baseball power rankings, I figured I would provide my own rankings for this week. I won't go into all 30 MLB teams, but I will mention my top 10.

1. Boston Red Sox:
The Red Sox have been on fire the last few weeks. Adrian Gonzalez is proving to be exactly what the Red Sox were hoping he would be: an RBI machine that can hit for average while playing well above average defense at first base. Their pitching has been great too, with old timer Tim Wakefield filling in very nicely for the injured Daisuke Matsuzaka. The Sox pitching staff gave up only 6 runs to a fairly potent Blue Jays offense in a three game series. To give some perspective on the Sox offensive awesomeness, they scored 16 runs in one game against the Jays, which is 2.5 times the number of runs the Jays scored in the whole series. If they keep this up, they will have a chance to sport the MVP (Gonzalez), Cy Young winner (Lester) and at least an AL Pennant.

2. Philadelphia Phillies:
The Phillies are a team with a specific modus operandi. They out-pitch you at least 3 out of every 5 games, most likely 4/5. Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, and Hamels all looked great their last times out, including Oswalt's best start since coming off of the DL. The bullpen has had some ups and downs with injuries and bad pitching from J.C. Romero, but overall most games they only pitch the 8 and 9 innings. Between Madson, Contreras, Stutes (rookie), and Bastardo there isn't much left to want out of the backend of a bullpen. The offense still leaves something to be desired, but with pitching like the Phillies have, you don't need massive amounts of runs. Ryan Howard's batting average is low, but his rbi totals are 3rd in the National League. Chase Utley seems to be hitting his stride lately, but that was against meager Chicago Cubs pitching. Overall the team has a .320 obp which is good for 18th in the majors. If they get number up, more runs will come.

3. New York Yankees:
I thought about putting the Milwaukee Brewers in this spot, but the Yankees can't be overlooked so noticeably, even for someone who despises them. Curtis Granderson, Mark Teixeira, and Alex Rodriguez are doing the heavy lifting for the Yankees offense. Home runs are their go-to weapon, especially for left-handed hitter with Granderson (20), Teixeira (19) and A-rod (13). They use that short porch in right-field to perfection. Pitching-wise, they will most likely lose Jaba for a while, which hurts because he was pitching very well. Colon will go to the DL as well, but they can combat that with good hitting. The Yankees’ strategy for the near future has to be to score lots of runs to back a barely above average pitching staff. Oh, and Jeter accomplishing 3,000 hits is nice too. There is a good article by Tyler Kepner in NYT Sunday sports section on Jeter and Roberto Clemente.

4. Milwaukee Brewers:
Fourth place is where I will put the recently rising Brewers. Greinke, Gallardo, and Marcum make up a solid pitching staff that is currently healthy and pitching well. With Axford handling the end of games, the Brewers have innings 1-6 and 9 covered for probably 4 out of every 5 games. Everything else is dependent upon their hitting which is outstanding. They have: Prince Fielder, 2nd in NL in HR(19), 1st in NL in RBI (58), 4th in NL in BB (37), 2nd in NL in SLG (.627), and 3rd in NL in OPS (1.042) and Ryan Bruan, 6th in NL in HR (14)4th in NL in RBI (48), 1st in NL in R (48), 5th in NL in BB (35), SB (14), SLG (.560), and OPS (.958). The Brewers are designed to win now, and although St. Louis has held the top spot in the NL Central most of the year, the Brewers could easily take over the top spot and hold it until September.

5. Atlanta Braves:
The Braves have come on very strong of late. They have been doing so with all around good play. Their pitching, which is stellar, has been just that, with Jair Jurjens, Tommy Hanson, and Derek Lowe pitching well in their last three starts. Tim Hudson has had his ups and downs this year, but he's a sinker ball pitcher who throws strikes and overall such pitchers do well. Hitting-wise, they have been getting great performances from Brian McCann and Freddie Freeman. Freeman, a rookie, is hitting well against both LHP and RHP. With Jason Heyward on the DL, this team has hung around offensively, and has done so well enough to boast a .576 winning percentage. Much kudos to Frank Wren, GM of the Braves, for putting together a great bullpen of pitchers who all throw hard.

6. St. Louis Cardinals:
Although the Cardinals were recently swept by division rival Milwaukee, the team still has 38 wins, and is only out of the division lead by .5 games. With Albert Pujols beginning to put up better power numbers and Lance Berkman crushing the ball behind him, the Cardinals have the middle of the order muscle needed to win. They also have an underrated pitching staff. Chris Carpenter hasn't pitched up to his usual ways, but Jaime Garcia, Kyle Lohse, and Jack Westbrook are performing at least average to above average. The Cardinals are a good team, but if they don't play very well over the next two months, the Brewers will take a commanding lead in the central that may prove insurmountable.

7. Texas Rangers:
No matter what changes the Rangers make, their success has always been centered around their hitting, and this season is no different. Michael Young, a healthy Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz, Adrian Beltre, and Mitch Moreland have given opposing pitchers fits. Young, Kinsler, and Moreland all have OBPs in the top 40 in the AL. Pitching-wise, Jose Ogando has been a great surprise and C.J. Wilson continues to grow and succeed against good lineups. Agreat stat for them is Ogando’s 0.90 WHIP, which is pretty good. They should be able to hold off the Angels and Mariners' meager attempts to win first place in the west.

8. San Francisco Giants:
The Giants are the most puzzling team in the major leagues. Their lineup is riddled with no-names and old has-beens, yet they lead the NL west and have the most come-from-behind wins in the majors. This team uses their huge and oddly shaped ballpark to its advantage. They have a great fan base, a great manager in Bruce Bochy, and probably the best end –of-the-game pitchers in the game. Sergio Romo, Javier Lopez, and Brian Wilson are shut down 8th and 9th inning pitchers who rarely relinquish a lead and predominantly keep their team in the game late, allowing for comebacks. Lincecum hasn't pitched as well as past years, but he has the ability to pitch a complete game shutout every time he takes the hill. With Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez behind him, this team will always be in the game. Losing Buster Posey and Freddie Sanchez won't be easy, but this team has yet to stop surprising me this year with their tenacity and ability to prevent opposing teams from scoring, two variables that often lead to victories.

9. Detroit Tigers:
The Tigers have been really good lately. There is no other way to say it. They have given up the six fewest hits of any pitching staff in the AL, which is an improvement from last year. When the Tigers went to the World Series they did it with pitching. Justin Verlander is a top 10 pitcher with top 5 talent. The fact is, although their pitching is decent, their offense is fantastic, carrying them to the top of the AL Central. Miguel Cabrera is putting up MVP-like stats again, though he is getting help from Victor Martinez, Brennan Boesch, and Johnny Peralta. The biggest surprise has been Max Scherzer, who has 8 victories, and a 2.53 strike out to walk ratio. He needs to limit the number of base runners because he pitches better from the windup, but overall he's having a career year.

10. Arizona Diamondbacks:
This may seem odd—the D-back making the top ten—but winning-percentage-wise, they have the Cleveland Indians bested. The Indians were my next choice for this spot, but they have sputtered lately losing 9 out of their last 10. Arizona has the best run differential in the NL west, with a +22 in comparison to the 1st place Giants who have a -3 run differential. The D-backs weren't supposed to be this good, in fact they were supposed to compete with San Diego for the bottom of the NL west, which is code for competing for the worst record in the NL. Their offense is centered around hitting the long ball, they have the 3rd most runs scored in the NL, and they have the top slugging percentage and HR's hit. With a sub 4.00 team ERA that is equal to the major league average, the D-backs have discovered what I call the "Colorado Rockies playbook for success". They take good arms that are unproven and hope they pitch at least at average while allowing their young, speedy, powerful hitters to unleash their impressive power numbers on other average pitching staffs. In the past it has been Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki, Seth Smith, and Todd Helton performing these tasks for the Rockies. In this case Justin Upton, Chris Young, Ryan Roberts, and Kelly Johnson are putting up the necessary power to propel the D-backs into the power rankings top ten.

New Blog

2011-06-12T18:23:00.000-07:00

Hey all, this is my first post using a different blog website. Blog.com became too annoying for me to use and thus I have switched to blogger.com. If you want to read my previous posts, visit benjh5.blog.com.