Sunday Strategy Blog

Super Bowl XLIII Gambling Analysis

noreply@blogger.com (N) — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 15:42:00 +0000

Pittsburgh Steelers at Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Steelers favored by 7
Over/Under: 46.5

Super Bowl XLIII is finally here and the Pittsburgh Steelers are still a 7 point favorite. The line hasn't moved much at all since it opened up nearly two weeks ago.

So, who to bet. I have to be a bit honest with, this game has me perplexed.

On the one hand, I love the Steelers defense. They are a once-a-decade type of defense and can hold their own with the '00 Ravens and, even, the '85 Bears. History suggests that the dominant defensive team always ends up winning in the Super Bowl.

But, on the other hand, I LOVE the Ken Wisenhunt factor. He was the Offensive Coordinator in Pittsburgh before taking over as head coach in Arizona 2 years ago. he knows everything about the Steelers offense. He helped Big Ben develop into an NFL QB. You think he doesn't know what his weaknesses are? One of my biggest gambling wins ever was when John Gruden and the Bucs defeated the Raiders a few years ago. I couldn't get over the fact that John Gruden knew everything there was to know about the Raiders having coached them the year before. The Super Bowl came and it was a blow out. I won big. The situation here is very similar.

So now that I have these conflicting emotions, I have to look to other factors. Of course you can talk about how great Larry Fitzgerald is, but you can also say the same about more than a few players on the Steelers defense. I can also talk about the history of the black-and-gold but, honestly, what Bradshaw and Co. did in the 70's will mean nothing come Sunday.

That leaves the one big issue that I just can't overlook. The Hines Ward injury. All indicators are that he will be close to 75% on Sunday. he will suit up and will likely start, but he simply can't be a factor. And I love Hines Ward. The guy is a player in every sense of the word and is the heart and soul of the Pittsburgh offense. If he doesn't play a big role, then Nate Washington and Linus let-me-drop-a-sure-touchdown-and-pretend-to-be-hurt-so-people-fell-bad Sweed will have to step up. Do you want to rely on either one of these guys for a Super Bowl title? Me neither.

Take the Cardinals and the 7 points. They may not win, but Wisenhunt knows the Pittsburgh offense so well that they'll have to keep it close.

For more information about this matchup, check out our detailed Steelers - Cardinals analysis

Super Bowl Box Pool Calculator

noreply@blogger.com (N) — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 15:31:00 +0000

Everyone has entered the Super Bowl Box pool before.

Put you money down and write your name in one of 100 boxes. Then, right before kickoff, someone rolls the die and you get numbers assigned to to your box.

If the final digit of the final score matches your box, you win. For example, the Giants beat the Patriots 17 - 14 in Super Bowl XLII. Whoever had the "Giants 7 - Patriots 4" Box - wins. It's that simple.

We've taken every NFL game from the last decade and figured out how the final score would fit into the Super Bowl box pool. The percentage of games that fall into the appropriate box are listed below.

		Team A
		0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
T e a m B	0	2.18	1.47	0.69	3.56	2.26	0.65	1.42	3.67	0.96	0.57
	1	1.47	0.59	0.29	1.09	2.58	0.21	0.71	1.72	1.24	0.67
	2	0.69	0.29	0.04	0.46	0.38	0.27	0.27	0.44	0.13	0.42
	3	3.56	1.09	0.46	1.47	1.51	0.44	1.74	2.07	0.65	0.80
	4	2.26	2.58	0.38	1.51	1.63	0.57	0.84	3.50	0.78	0.57
	5	0.65	0.21	0.27	0.44	0.57	0.13	0.29	0.78	0.54	0.10
	6	1.42	0.71	0.27	1.74	0.84	0.29	0.46	1.17	0.46	0.50
	7	3.67	1.72	0.44	2.07	3.50	0.78	1.17	2.18	0.90	0.82
	8	0.96	1.24	0.13	0.65	0.78	0.54	0.46	0.90	0.38	0.29
	9	0.57	0.67	0.42	0.80	0.57	0.10	0.50	0.82	0.29	0.04

Geno's Super Bowl Video Pick

noreply@blogger.com (N) — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 10:20:00 +0000

Sure, you can be boring and just bet the game. But what fun is that? This is the Super Bowl. You get bet the coin toss, the length of the national anthem and even the first TD celebration. Geno has your picks on all of these. Oh yeah, he talks about the actual game too.

Geno's Bye Week Special

noreply@blogger.com (N) — Sat, 24 Jan 2009 10:42:00 +0000

You think Geno just sits down in a chair each week, starts talking and goes 70% ATS?

No my friend, this is hard work. No one can be this naturally good looking AND funny at the same time. Check out the behind-the-scenes outtakes from all of Geno's video picks this season.

Super Bowl XLIII - Opening Lines

noreply@blogger.com (N) — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 14:14:00 +0000

Pittsburgh Steelers at Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Steelers favored by 7
Over/Under: 46.5

Super Bowl XLIII is all set. The Pittsburgh Steelers - who will be making a record 7th Super Bowl appearance - will face off against the Arizona Cardinals. This is the first Super Bowl appearance for the cardinals.

The early Vegas lines are in and the Steelers are listed as a 7 point favorite. Some books have it at 6.5. My gut says that is a bit high and it will settle to the 6 or 6.5 range by mid week.

The initial Over/Under line is set at 46.5 - a bit high given the Steelers record setting defense. They may come down a point as well as the week progresses.

We'll get into the analysis closer to game time. Just for fun, here is the outcome of the most recent Super Bowls. The favorite has won 5 out of the last 8 games - but has only covered in 3 of those games. The Under has hit in the last 4 Super Bowls.

For more information about this matchup, check out our detailed Steelers - Cardinals analysis

Geno's NFL Video Picks: Championship Weekend

noreply@blogger.com (N) — Sat, 17 Jan 2009 15:48:00 +0000

FLY BIRDS, FLY!

NFL Playoff Gambling: Conference Championships

noreply@blogger.com (N) — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 17:15:00 +0000

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Eagles favored by 4
Over/Under: 47

Think back to December 21; just 4 days before Christmas. The Philadelphia Eagles could only score 3 points in a loss to Washington. This was supposed to be a must-win game and the Eagles didn't show up. Just a few hours up the coast, the Arizona Cardinals were getting absolutely destroyed by the Patriots, 47 - 7. This was their 3rd loss by 3 TDs or more in the last 4 weeks.

Less than one month later, these teams are playing for a trip to the Super Bowl in one of the unlikeliest Championship matchups of all time. The Eagles are favored by 4 points on the road and the Over/Under is set at 47.

Everything about this game tells me that the Eagles will win. Let's look at the facts

These teams met on Thanksgiving night and the Eagles won 48 - 20. That's a whooping. We shouldn't dismiss this game

The Eagles have a MUCH better defense than the Cardinals. They give up 8.3 less points per game while holding opposing offenses to nearly 20% fewer yards.

The Cardinals offense gets all of the attention, but they aren't that much better than the Eagles, statistically speaking. They only score 1.4 more points per game and the yardage is close.

The Eagles were much better than their record indicated all year. They played a very tough schedule and FootballOutsiders.com had them ranked near the top all season - despite their record. The Cardinals, on the other hand, were just the opposite. They got 6 of their wins in the putrid NFC West and played like crap against the rest of the league (until the playoffs, of course)

If you add all of this up, it seems like it will be a pretty convincing Ealges win. They have experienced players at every position and will have the will to win. The outcome of the next two weeks will really define the McNabb/Reid era in Philly for generations to come. The same can't be said about Arizona.

Take the Eagles, giving the 4 points. I also like the over. Both of these teams can score points and the Cardinals may get come garbage time points once the game is decided. Final score: Eagles 34 - Cardinals - 24.

For more information about this matchup, check out our detailed Eagles - Cardinals analysis

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Steelers favored by -6
Over/Under: 33.5

Can someone please explain to me why the Steelers are a 6 point favorite in this game? The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers played twice this year. Both were very tough, hard fought games. The Steelers won the Week 15 matchup in Baltimore 13-9 and they also won at home earlier in the year, 23-20.

I expect more of the same in the playoffs. These teams know each other very well and are absolute carbon copies of each other. Some people may argue that the Steelers offense is a bit better - but the stats don't support this. Baltimore actually averages 1.1 more points per game and has a very slight edge in overall yardage.

On the defensive side of the ball, the stats are scary identical. Baltimore gives up 14.6 points per game; the Steelers give up 14.5. The Steelers have an edge in yards allowed, but the Ravens get an extra 0.5 turnovers per game.

If you add this all up, it means these teams are IDENTICAL. It will be nearly impossible to pick this game. Either of these teams have just as legitimate shot at winning this thing. That's why, for the life of me, I don't understand how the Steelers are a 6 point favorite. Six points!!!!

Another bet to watch is the under. The line right now is set at 34. My gut tells me to check the weather in this game. If it is snowing and miserable at kickoff, take the under. Otherwise, lay off.

Final Score: Steelers 17 - Baltimore 14

For more information about this matchup, check out our detailed Ravens - Steelers analysis

NFL Playoff Gambling: NFC Divisional Round

noreply@blogger.com (N) — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 16:12:00 +0000

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers

Spread: Panthers favored by -10
Over/Under: 48

Everything I needed to know about this game, I learned last Saturday night after the Cardinals win. When was the last time you saw a team dump Gatorade on their coach after winning a home game in the Wildcard playoff round? Seriously, who does that? The Cardinals were clearly just happy to get our of the first round and have no expectations going forward.

Let's throw some more facts at you. The Panthers are 8-0 at home this year. Meanwhile, the Cardinals went 0-5 on the East Coast. Most of those games weren't close.

I am not going to bore you with all of the reasons that the Panthers are better. They are going to win this game. The question is by how much. Ten points is rather high for a playoff line.

But I do like Carolina in this game. The reason is that I don't think the Cardinals can come back from a deficit. If you look at their games this season, nearly every time they were over-matched, the game became a blowout. Look at some of their losses this year:

Patriots 47 - Cardinals 7
Vikings 35 - Cardinals 14
Eagles 48 - Cardinals 20
Jets 56 - Cardinals 35

To put it simply, the Cardinals don't have a lot of heart and they have a propensity to get blown out. I expect more of the same on Saturday night with a 38 - 17 Panthers win.

For more information about this matchup, check out our detailed Cardinals - Panthers analysis

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

Spread: Giants favored by -4.5
Over/Under: 40

The Giants were the best team for the first 12 weeks of the season. Then Plaxico went and shot himself. Then the Giants went 1-3 in December.

Meanwhile,the Eagles have won 5 out of 6; including a 20-14 win over the Giants just one month ago.

So, who do you like? The hot team that has plenty of experience and just got its mojo back. Or the defending Super Bowl champions that are the best team when all things are clicking... but haven't shown that side recently.

Everything tells me this will be a close game. IT will be decided by a field goal. One team will win 23-20. I'm just not sure which one. Good thing for you, the line is 4.5. Bet the Eagles and you'll be fine

For more information about this matchup, check out our detailed Eagles - Giants analysis

NFL Playoff Gambling: AFC Divisional Round

noreply@blogger.com (N) — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 15:14:00 +0000

Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans

Spread: Titans favored by -3
Over/Under: 35

The Tennessee Titans - the team had the best record in the NFL for most of the season - is only a 3 point favorite at home in it's first playoff matchup. And you know what, that feels about right. If you look at the stats for the Titans and Ravens, they are exactly the same. These are virtually the same team. Let's see:

Both teams give up only 14 points per game
Baltimore scores 24 points, Tennessee 23
Equal distribution betwen rushing and passing yards
Both teams don't turn the ball over on offense yet create turnovers on defense

Literally, these teams are exactly the same. The only difference is that Titans start a seasoned veteran at QB while the Ravens QB is a rookie.

When these two teams met earlier this year, the Titans won 13-10 on a late game winning touchdown drive by Collins.

The funny thing about this game is that it doesn't matter which team you bet. It's going to be a push. The Titans are going to win this game by 3. I have never been surer about anything in my life. So - don't bet this game! You are just going to lose 10% of your money on the vig. It's a no win situation.

The Under of 35 points, however, is very enticing. Who is going to score on who in this game? Even if both of these teams score two TDs and the score rests at 17-14 that still leaves you at the under.

I know its not fun to bet the under and watch the game after - but its the smart bet. Bet the under and root for DEFENSE! There is going to be a lot of it in this game.

For more information about this matchup, check out our detailed Ravens - Titans analysis

San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Steelers favored by -6
Over/Under: 38

Let me say this loud and clear... THE SAN DIEGO CHARGERS ARE NOT A GOOD FOOTBALL TEAM! There, are you happy you made me yell.

They played in a pathetic conference and still managed to lose 8 games. And, let's be honest, beating Peyton Manning in the playoffs is nothing to get too excited about.

Don't give me that crap about the Chargers being hot. They beat 4 non-playoff teams down the stretch and needed a miracle to finish off the chiefs. The Steelers finished the season just as hot - wining 6 of their last 7. This includes wins over the Ravens, Cowboys, Patriots and these San Diego Chargers.

Let's not forget that LDT - the best RB of the decade - is likely out of this game as well. Don't get too excited about the Darren Sproles era just yet. Let's see the little man rack up those kind of yards against a real defense.

Speaking of defense, the Steelers have one of the greatest statistical defenses of all times. They held opponents to 237 total yards per game. That's not just low, it is ridiculously low. We keep records since the 2003 season and not a single defense has even come within 10% of those numbers. For comparison sake, the 2000 Ravens gave up 250 yards per game and the 1985 Chicago Bears gave up 258.

The Steelers will win this game and cover the spread. Expect a 21 - 10 Pittsburgh victory.

For more information about this matchup, check out our detailed Chargers - Steelers analysis

BCS National Championship Preview: Oklahoma Sooners vs. Florida Gators

noreply@blogger.com (N) — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 20:52:00 +0000

Florida Gators at Oklahoma Sooners

Spread: Florida Gators favored by 3
Over/Under: 72

The BCS National Championship is finally here. And, let's be honest, this is the only College Football game that has really mattered in well over a month.

The 12-1 Florida Gators are taking on the 12-1 Oklahoma Sooners. Let's break the game down.

OFFENSE
The Oklahoma Sooners have one of the most impressive offensives in college football history. Behind Heisman winning QB Sam Bradford - they averaged 54 points per game and 562 yards of total offense. Wow! They went for 35 or more points in every game this season and 45 or more in 11 out of 13. They finished the season by scoring 58 points more in their final 6 games... 3 of those wins coming over ranked teams. What mroe can you say.

Florida isn't too shabby either. Behind last season's Heisman QB Tim Teabow, they averaged 45 points per game and 440 yards. Their distribution between rushing and passing yards was nearly even. They also had their share of blowouts and out 31 points on a very tough Alabama defense in the SEC championship game.

Edge: Oklahoma

DEFENSE
Oklahoma gave up 24 points a game. But, in their defense, the stats are a bit misleading. They were scoring so many points per game at such a fast pace - this gave opponents more possessions than average. And, many of these teams were throwing because they were always from behind.

In the biggest game of the year, Oklahoma couldn't stop Texas and gave up 45 points. They also gave up 41 points in a win against Oklahoma St. Not great.

Florida, on the other hand, had a world class defense all season. They gave up less than 13 points per game and barely 100 yards rushing. This includes 7 games were the opponents scored 10 points or less. They only allowed 21 to LSU and 20 to Alabama.

Edge: Florida

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
Oklahoma won the hardest division in the country. They played 5 ranked teams and every game down the stretch seemed like a playoff game. They had blowout wins against Texas Tech - a top 5 team IMHO - and against Missouri in the Big 12 championship game. However, we can't overlook the fact that they lost to the best team on their schedule - Texas.

Florida has 3 wins over teams ranked in the Top 10. However, the wins over LSU and Georgia look less impressive in retrospect. They did beat #1 Alabama in the SEC Championship game to end the season.

Beyond these three games, the rest of the season was pretty easy. The SEC was down this year and Florida had an inexplicable loss at home to Mississippi early in the season.

Edge: Oklahoma

Intangibles
Looking at the numbers above, this seems like a pretty even matchup. Both teams dominated their games save one bad loss. But, I'm going with Florida for a variety of reasons:

Tim Teabow is one of the greatest college football players I have ever seen. He's the kind of guy that can carry a team on his back when needed most. And he can do it all - run, pass, leap tall buildings on a single bound, etc. I understand that Sam Bradford did win the Heisman this year, but how did that work out for Troy Smith? Or Reggie Bush? Or former Sooner QB Jason White?

Oklahoma is missing RB DeMarco Murray. I understand that he was one of just many weapons on the offense - but he did rush for 1000 yards and have nearly 400 more receiving yards. You can't discount that. I don't like a team to lose one of its primary players in the National Championship Game - even if that person is easily replaceable.

Oklahoma had a record breaking offense. Florida had a top defense. Both teams haven't played a football game in 5 weeks. My theory is that the time off hurts an offense much more than a defense. The offense works on timing and syncing with one another. With 5 games in between games, it's like a new season. The offense won't look like the well oiled machine that it was late in 2008.

Urban Meyer is the best mind in College Football. Don't get me wrong - Bob Stoops is top 10. But Urban Meyer is #1. I am nothing but impressed with what he has accomplished in his short coaching career. My rule of thumb: never bet against the smartest guy in the room... especially when he has 5 weeks to prepare.

Take Florida and give the field goal. Although this game seems very close on paper, these big games very rarely turn out to be as close as expected. If you think Florida is going to win, history says that they will cover as well.

In case you are wondering, here are how the first 10 BCS Championship Games finished up:

2007: LSU 38 - Ohio St. 24
2006: Florida 41 - Ohio St. 14
2005: Texas 41 - USC 38
2004: USC 55 - Oklahoma 19
2003: LSU 21 - Oklahoma 14
2002: Ohio St. 31 - Miami 24
2001: Miami 37 - Nebraska 14
2000: Oklahoma 13 - Florida State 2
1999: Florida State 46 - Virginia Tech 29
1998: Tennessee 23 - Florida State 16

It's also interesting to note that the #1 team has won 5 games and the #2 game has won 5 games. But, the #2 has won 5 out of the last 6 (including the last 3). I don't think that means anything in terms of this game. i just find it interesting

For more information about this matchup, check out our detailed Gators - Sooners analysis

Geno´s NFL Video Picks: Wildcard Round

noreply@blogger.com (N) — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 10:47:00 +0000

NFC Wildcard Gambling Preview

noreply@blogger.com (N) — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 09:30:00 +0000

Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Falcons favored by 1
Over/Under: 50.5

I don't know if the 2008 Arizona Cardinals are the worst team to ever host a playoff game... but they are certainly on the list. They went 2-4 down the stretch and gave up 47, 35, 48 and 37 points in those 4 losses. Wow. Six of their nine wins came via a sweep of the pathetic NFC West. And their only two impressive victories - over the Cowboys and Dolphins - happened very early in the season.

The Falcons, on the other hand, had two more wins than the Cardinals in a much tougher division. They've beat a number of quality teams throughout the season and finished off 7-2 .

The only argument that can convince you to take the Cardinals is the experience difference between Kurt Warner and Matt Ryan. But I'm not buying it. Warner's last playoff game was the 2001 Super Bowl loss to the Patriots. Meanwhile, Ryan has played at an MVP caliber for 16 games. He's not your typical rookie.

The Falcons will win this game big 35 - 21.

On a side note, you should consider taking the Over of 50.5 Both of these teams have very good offenses and field a less-than-average defense. The Cardinals hit the Over in 11 of their 16 games this year.

For more information about this matchup, check out our detailed Falcons - Cardinals analysis

Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Eagles favored by 3
Over/Under: 41.5

Another game - another time the road team is the favorite. This time, the Eagles are favored by 3 at the Vikings.

Everyone in the wolrd seems to be picking the Eagles in this game. Not me. I think the Vikings are actually underrated. They were in every game this season and don't have a bad loss on their resume.

And who the hell knows what to make of the Eagles. They look great in beating hte Giants, and then can only score 3 points against the Redskins. And lets not even talk about their tie against the Bengals or when Baltimore beat them by 4 TDs.

Of course, they looked great against the Cowboys last week. But that may have been the highlight of the season. I don't know if they will have the same intensity against the Vikings.

The reason I like the Vikings is due to their All-World RB - Adrian Peterson. He is exactly the kind of back you want and need in the playoffs. With the Minnesota fans going crazy in the Metrodome and a steady running of Peterson, I think the Vikings will wear down the Eagles and come out ahead in the game.

Bet the Vikings to voer and win the game 17 - 14.

For more information about this matchup, check out our detailed Eagles - Vikings analysis

AFC Wildcard Gambling Preview

noreply@blogger.com (N) — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 09:01:00 +0000

Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers

Spread: PICK
Over/Under: 49

The best first round matchup is clearly the Colts at the Chargers. Vegas has no idea who is going to win this game because the line is even.

The Colts closed out the season with 9 straight victories - making them the hottest team in the league. The Chargers also finished off strong, goign 4-0 down the stretch despite a putrid 4-8 start.

These teams have played 5 times in the past 4 years and all of the games have been close. This includes 28 - 24 Chargers win in last season's playoffs and a 23-20 Colts triumph just one month ago.

This game can definitly go either way, but I'm leaning towards the Colts in this one. It just comes down to the Chargers defense being not that good. At the end of the game, if Manning needs to score, I don't think the Chargers can stop him. It's that simple.

The Colts will win 28 - 24

For more information about this matchup, check out our detailed Colts - Chargers analysis

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins

Spread: Ravens favored by 3
Over/Under: 37

This is a much more lopsided game to call. I LOVE LOVE LOVE the Ravens in this game.

The Dolphins were a great story all year and deserve to be in the playoffs, but they just match up terribly against the Ravens. The Wildcat doesn't work at all against the Ravens defense. This was proven in October when the Ravens beat the Dolphins by 2 TDs and held them to 71 yards rushing. Expect more of hte same in the playoffs.

Many people will look at the Dolphins record and assume they are an elite team. Well, a closer inspection shows a different story. They only have one quality win on the season - and that came in Week 3 against the Patriots. There 11 wins include victories over teams such as the Chiefs, Rams, Raiders, Rams, Bills and Seahawks. Not exactly a murderer's row.

Baltimore, on the other hand, has wins over the Cowboys, Redskins and the Eagles. And three of their losses came against the best teams in the league - the Steelers twice and the Titans - by a total of 10 points.

Everything tells me that the Ravens will win this game. And, it's not going to be close. Final Score: Ravens 21 - Miami 10

For more information about this matchup, check out our detailed Ravens - Dolphins analysis

BCS Betting Preview

noreply@blogger.com (N) — Sun, 28 Dec 2008 19:46:00 +0000

We're just about through a plethora of Bowl Games that no one cares about. (Unless you were captivated by the MagicJack St. Petersburg Bowl). Now it is time for the BCS Bowls!

Penn State Nittany Lions at USC Trojans

Spread: Trojans favored by 8.5
Over/Under: 45

The first game on the schedule is a traditional Big Ten - Pac Ten matchup (OK, so what if Penn St. has only been in the Big Ten since Joe Paterno reached mandatory retirement age.... work with me here).

Both teams were one slip-up from playing in the National Championship game. Penn St lost on a last second field goal to Iowa. USC got upset at Oregon St. early in the season.

That being said, each team only has one real quality win on the schedule... and they both came against Ohio St. USC destroyed Ohio St. 35 - 3 in early September (and the game wasn't that close) While Penn St. beat the Buckeyes in a hard fought matchup two months ago.

If we use Ohio St as a measuring stick, reason dictates that USC is the better team here. They were clearly the better team against Ohio St and had the advantage in every aspect of the game. Meanwhile, the Penn St - Ohio St. game could have went either way.

Expect this to be another embarrassing loss for the Big Ten in a Bowl Game. USC should win by at least two TDs and cover.

For more information about this matchup, check out our detailed Nittany Lions - Trojans analysis

Cincinnati Bearcats at Virginia Tech Hokies

Spread: Bearcats favored by 2.5
Over/Under: 41.5

OK, this is a BCS Bowl Game in name only. These two teams probably wouldn't have winning records in the Big 12... but they did win their respective divisions and rules are rules.

I honestly don't have too much to say about this game. The Big East has looked good so far this Bowl season... so let's assume that the trend continues and the Bearcats cover. But that's just a guess.... I have no idea how this game is going to turn out.

For more information about this matchup, check out our detailed Bearcats - Hokies analysis

Utah Utes at Alabama Crimson Tide

Spread: Crimson Tide favored by 10
Over/Under: 46

Alabama was the #1 team in the country until the final week of the season when they played Florida tough. Utah hasn't lost all year. They have two quality wins coming late in the season.. beating TCU by a point and blowing out BYU in their last game.

But let's not get too cute here. Utah is a nice story. They had a great season and should be proud of their accomplishment. They deserve to be in this BCS game.

Alabama, on the other hand, is a legitimate top team. They went 12-1 in the SEC and their defense gave up 10 points or less in more than half of those games.

I just don't see Utah scoring points on Alabama. This game reminds me of the Sugar Bowl last season when an undefeated Hawaii was matched up against SEC runner-up Georgia. Many people picked the feel-good Rainbows to get an upset win. But what happened? Georgia blew them out 41-0.

Expect more of the same here. Alabama will win in a blowout and will cover the spread.

For more information about this matchup, check out our detailed Utes - Crimson Tide analysis

Ohio State Buckeyes at Texas Longhorns

Spread: Longhorns favored by 8
Over/Under: 53

The team everyone loves to hate - the Ohio State Buckeyes - are back in a BCS Bowl game. They are matched up against a Texas team that had a legitimate claim to the National Championship game.

Texas' lone loss of the season came in an instant-classic against Texas Tech. Ohio St. lost to two BCS bound teams - USC and Penn St.

This is a tough game for me to call. I am a life long Ohio St. fan and think they received too much crap for the way their season ended the last two years. I admit that the looked like shit in those last two games and were out-coached.... but it happens to the best teams in the country.

That being said, I've watched this team play many times this year and I'm afraid to say they are not a great team. They don't have that special something that past Buckeyes teams did.

Texas, on the other hand, has looked great all season. They are arguably the best team in the country and barely - barely - dropped one game in an extremely hostile environment.

Texas will win this game by 10. Not because Ohio St chokes again; Texas is just a better team this year.

For more information about this matchup, check out our detailed Buckeyes - Longhorns analysis

Check back soon for analysis on The National Championship game between Florida and Oklahoma.

Geno's NFL Video Picks: Week 17

noreply@blogger.com (N) — Fri, 26 Dec 2008 15:56:00 +0000

The snow may keep Geno out of the studio - but it doesn't keep him from delivering his Video Picks

Geno's NFL Video Picks: Week 16

noreply@blogger.com (N) — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 15:10:00 +0000

Geno is away this week - but Joe Conte stands in and makes Geno's picks (and reads his jokes).

Geno's NFL Video Picks: Week 15

noreply@blogger.com (N) — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 13:51:00 +0000

Geno goes old school with his picks this week with references to Die Hard, Good Will Hunting, OJ Simpson and even Lewis & Clark.

Thank God he starts this off with a reference to Lil' Wayne or I would have been sure this video was shot in the mid-90s. The only thing we're mussing is a clip in which Geno tells us that the lack of respect Stan Humphries gets from the national media really Grinds His Gears.

But, don't be fooled, this is 2008 and Geno is this close to getting back to over 70% on the season. I challenge you to find another handicapper in the country with this kind of record. Especially one who has the balls to put up the video clips BEFORE the games take place. Well done, Geno, well done.

Geno's NFL Video Picks: Week 14

noreply@blogger.com (N) — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 15:23:00 +0000

Geno is still hitting his picks at a documented 70% rate throughout the season. We're in Week 14 people.... this is not a fluke!

Now, if he could just get the quarterback's name right 70% of the time, we would be in good shape.

(*** Note *** In the above video, every time he says Trent Dilfer, think Jeff Garcia. The jokes will be much funnier that way)

Geno's NFL Video Picks: Week 13

noreply@blogger.com (N) — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 16:07:00 +0000

Thanksgiving Day Feast

noreply@blogger.com (N) — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 10:54:00 +0000

The only holiday that revolves around football is finally here: Thanksgiving.

And, as usual, the Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions will be hosting games. How have these teams done on Thanksgiving:

The Cowboys have won 3 out of their last 4 Thanksgiving day games. With each of those victories coming by 2 TDs or more.

The Lions? Let's just say that they haven't been that good. They have only have 1 win in their last 7 Thanksgving Day games - including 4 consecutive losses. These 4 recent losses have all come by 10 points or more. Some by much more (27 - 7, 41 - 9). They have also failed to cover the spread in 5 out of their last 6 Turkey day games.

Considering that this years Lions team is worse than any in the past, I see no reason why the trend will end on Thursday.

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Cowboys favored by 13
Over/Under: 46.5

For more information about this matchup, check out our detailed Seahawks - Cowboys analysis

Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions

Spread: Titans favored by 11
Over/Under: 44

For more information about this matchup, check out our detailed Titans - Lions analysis

Geno's NFL Video Picks: Week 12

noreply@blogger.com (N) — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 12:48:00 +0000

Let me tell you something... Geno is 31-13 on the season.

Stop and think about that for a second.

GENO IS FUCKING 31-13 ON THE SEASON!!!!

I dare you to find another handicapper with that kind of record. Especially one who goes on the record each week in video format - so there is no denying his accuracy.

His picks this week look real good. I strongly agree with all of Geno's picks this weekend. Well, not everything.. I disagree that Nipsy Russell was the best black man in Wildcats. Come on, we all know that Trumaine or Bird were the best guys on that team. Even Belicheck would agree that they were bad mother fuckers.

Geno's NFL Video Picks: Week 11

noreply@blogger.com (N) — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 15:04:00 +0000

Want to hear some good news? Geno is back in town this week.

Want to hear some great news? he went 4-0 (again) last week.

The man is simply on fire. If you are gay, Jewish or from Kentucky - you may not like his style of humor. But you better respect the man's ability to pick winners.

(Unless of course you are a gay, Jew living in Kentucky. Then you have every reason to hate everything about Geno - to hell with his 29-11 record on the year)

Geno's NFL Video Picks: Week 10

noreply@blogger.com (N) — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 10:13:00 +0000

While Geno is out in Oregon doing naughty things to his girlfriend, Joe Conte steps up to the plate and delivers the weekly video picks.

NFL - Midseason Report

noreply@blogger.com (N) — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 20:22:00 +0000

We are officially half way through the NFL season. If you read ESPN or SI, you know which teams are doing good and bad. But, for all of the gamblers out there, let's take a minute to respect the teams that have been winning us money.

First off, hats off to the Tennessee Titans. Not only are they 8-0 in real life, they are also 7-1 ATS. Bravo boys! Bravo! If i ever see Kerry Collins out in a bar, the next beer is on me. He's earned it.

An additional tip of the hat can goes to the Cardinals, Giants, Eagles and Ravens. All teams are 6-2 ATS so far this season.

On the losers side of this equation, let's start in the mile hile city. Denver is a horrible 1-6-1 ATS. That awful defense is paying off for us gamblers. The Texans, Jaguars and 49ers are not doing much better since all are 2-6 ATS.

But, before we beat up on the Texans too much, let's realize that they have hit the Over in 7 out of 8 games this year. And in the one game they went under, they still scored 35 points, but the Bengals only scored 6. Typical Cincinnati. Always bringing down the party for the rest of us.

The Tom Brady injury not only has hurt the Patriots record setting offense - it has also hurt gamblers who bet the over. The Patriots have hit 6 Unders in 8 games so far this season.

Will these trends continue for the second half of the year? We will soon see.

Geno's NFL Video Picks: Week 9

noreply@blogger.com (N) — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 15:07:00 +0000

Geno is back with his week 9 NFL Video Picks and, guess what?

- Geno is 23-9 on the season!

- His Phillies just won the World Series for the first time in 28 years!

- He's a hell of a lot funnier than Jimmy the Greek!

Life is good right now if your name is Geno. If not, don't dispair. Watch his Week 9 video picks and you can parlay some of his luck into your own winnings.