Trading With Trends

More Shorting Candidates Than Long: Markets Down?

noreply@blogger.com (Vikas Sharma) — Sun, 05 Jun 2016 16:35:00 +0000

Hello friends, I'm back here after a long long time. To explain my long absence from the blog, I have no reasons to give. Just lazy, I guess. What brings me here is a wonderful program that I attended in Bangkok in May 2016. The 5th edition of the Traders Carnival, a program in which traders from all over the world got together and shared their ideas on how we could generate profits from the markets. The program really has helped me broaden my vision about trading with a system and it once again reaffirmed the importance of discipline in trading.

How to Become a Multi Crorepati from the Stock Markets?

noreply@blogger.com (Vikas Sharma) — Mon, 09 Sep 2013 19:55:00 +0000

Stock markets have always attracted people towards them as a way to make quick bucks and returns unimaginable anywhere else. People like Warren Buffet, Peter Lynch, George Soros, John Templeton, Benjamin Graham and the Indian Rakesh Jhunjhunwala are all examples who started as a nobody and ended up as billionaires and only because of their one ability - the skill and the ability to identify good investments at the right time and turn them into fortunes. They really did make their bucks run and run hard.

Case Study of Double Tops Signals Huge Nifty Fall

noreply@blogger.com (Vikas Sharma) — Mon, 12 Aug 2013 18:57:00 +0000

It's been a long long time since I posted last and it does call for an apology on my part, specially to my regular readers. But all this while, even while I was away, the Nifty was still following what we had predicted. In my last post, I had suggested that an upswing was expected which had a target of between 6090-6140. I had also mentioned that we should book profits above 6080 and should take a short position from there for targets of 4300 and below. And the Nifty did turn around from 6093 and has been moving down ever since and it has even crossed the previous low of 5570 it had made in June this year, clearly indicating the beginning of a new bear market.

Upswing Expected After Triangle and Flag Formation

noreply@blogger.com (Vikas Sharma) — Wed, 10 Jul 2013 19:39:00 +0000

The Nifty was well on the way to our expected target levels of 4300 and below but was then interrupted by a quick and sharp upmove. These temporary corrections are expected on the way and in no circumstances do we expect the Nifty to go to 4300 and below in a unidirectional manner. Our job is not only to make a prediction on the direction of the market but also to trade on it. And while our predictions will help our trades to be more profitable but at the same time we have to be prepared for times when our predictions may go wrong. It is at times like those when we have to listen to what the market is trying to tell us. We just need to listen to the markets, they too have a language, and, believe me, it is not difficult to do that. Anyone can do that, all you have to do is to learn Technical Analysis.

Ranbaxy Up, R. Com Down, Nifty Yet to Decide

noreply@blogger.com (Vikas Sharma) — Wed, 19 Jun 2013 20:32:00 +0000

It's been a long time since I wrote last. And there's a good reason for that. I've been bearish on the Nifty for so many days now and there has been no change in the view till now so there was nothing new to mention. Such downsides will not come via a one-way movement and there are bound to be some corrections in between. What we are seeing now is a correction. Now, whether this rally that we are seeing is a correction or the bigger downside was a correction is yet to be seen. This present rally has started showing signs of a much bigger rally that may be coming. One may just have to be careful now and convert short positions, if any, into long positions when the time comes.

Nifty Going Down, Maintain Shorts

noreply@blogger.com (Vikas Sharma) — Mon, 03 Jun 2013 20:09:00 +0000

Today the Nifty opened on a stronger note but soon started falling and within minutes it was in the red and from thereon, it was a unidirectional fall for the Nifty, except in the last hour and a half when it made a strong recovery, but not enough to bring it in the green. In the process, just after opening it made a high of 5996, in the mid-afternoon it touched a low of 5917, recovered to 5951 and then ended the day 46 points in the red at 5939. Well, the Nifty made it clear today that it is going down and going down a long way. But the small recovery towards the end could be a signal that a small bounceback could come.

Retake on Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty: Target 3305

noreply@blogger.com (Vikas Sharma) — Mon, 27 May 2013 11:24:00 +0000

This is in continuation to my earlier analysis of the Nifty based on the Elliott Waves. I have already written two posts regarding this, one in January, just a few days before Nifty made the memorable high of 6111.80. In that post I had given a minimum target of Nifty to be 4300 but since the top had not been made as yet I assumed that the minimum target could be close to 4500 levels. Just days after that, the Nifty made a high of 6111.80 and started falling down heavily and came down to make a low of 5477, more than 10% down in a matter of days. That made us assume that the wave B was over and that we were now in the wave C and that the Nifty would move down to our perceived target levels. The second post's target of 5528 was given during this fall when the Nifty was still trading at around 5870 levels. The Nifty then did come down to 5477 and almost unexpectedly, started moving up and went up to 6230 and then started falling again.

Markets Are Bullish: Ankit

noreply@blogger.com (Vikas Sharma) — Wed, 22 May 2013 20:28:00 +0000

The following post is again a guest post by Mr. Ankit Sandhu. As I said, Elliott Waves is his speciality and he has shown another way how the waves can be numbered. Though, his analysis is slightly different from mine, but, you, as readers, should be happy that you are getting another point of view. I will revisit my Elliott Wave Analysis in a couple of days. Over to you, Ankit.

Since start of Jan 2013 Nifty was crawling and was showing signs of weakness which was very clearly visible. Every analyst was happy that Nifty was up 35% from the Dec 2012 lows. Then it started going southwards, there was no buying, valuations were high, fundamentals were not supporting. We were struck by bad news. Markets fell and Indian markets underperformed when compared to global markets. Vikas Sharma Sir did his Elliott wave analysis and it was justified because it had no signs of an impulse wave. Strength wasn’t there so we assumed it was in fact a correction wave. And possibility was there that we again might visit our 2012 lows.

Wockhardt - Justified Rise or Operator Driven?

noreply@blogger.com (Vikas Sharma) — Sun, 19 May 2013 15:41:00 +0000

The below post has been contributed by Mr. Ankit Sandhu, a very knowledgeable technical analyst (his speciality being Elliott Waves), and a first time publisher. He believes that one of the counters in our markets is being manipulated (among many others) and he takes it up as a case study here.

Wockhardt - What a wonderful company it is, isnt it? It must be as good as gold that’s why its prices jumped from a low of Rs. 68 in 2009 to a peak of Rs.2160 in 2013. What a spectacular bull run it has shown. The company must be worth millions now. HEY, don’t be “FOOLED” by this illusion. It’s an operator driven script but I don’t have any idea whether promoters are also involved in it or not.
It is said that everything that shines is not GOLD and everything that is too good to be true isn’t there.

Is This the Right Time to Buy Stocks?

noreply@blogger.com (Vikas Sharma) — Wed, 15 May 2013 19:43:00 +0000

Stock prices in the Indian markets have been rallying for 20 days now including today. And this rally today was to be expected after the sharp correction that we saw on Monday. But this much??? No, the quantum of the rally was unexpected. There was resistance near 6040 and then at 6090 and it crossed both effortlessly. The Nifty opened with about a 20 points gap up and made no effort to fill the gap, crossed both the resistances and still continued to rise to finally end the day at a high with a gain of 151 points to close at 6146.

Bearish Hanging Man Confirmation Needed in Nifty

noreply@blogger.com (Vikas Sharma) — Wed, 01 May 2013 19:03:00 +0000

The Nifty, on Tuesday, opened with a gap up near the highs of the day touching a high of 5962, just 9 points shy of the crucial resistance of 5970. But those highs were not seen for long as it began its slide down soon after opening and made a low of 5868 by mid afternoon and then started a very smart recovery to close near the highs again, though, just a few points in the red near 5930. The candlestick pattern seen on the daily charts is what is known as a Hanging Man. For a detailed analysis of the Nifty, continue reading.

Nifty Entering Resistance Zone - Buy Puts

noreply@blogger.com (Vikas Sharma) — Fri, 19 Apr 2013 18:52:00 +0000

In the last four days the Nifty has shown an amazing bounce-back from a low of 5500 to a high of 5794.35, a movement of almost 300 points. That is an excellent bounce-back, especially when we were expecting the Nifty to go lower to 5200 levels. Well, we are still looking at those targets, this is just a temporary pullback that we are seeing. The pullback was expected, especially on seeing the support the Nifty was finding near the 5500 levels. Negative news including the Infosys results failed to take the index below the 5500 levels. I had warned about the pullback on this site too when I said that it is time to be careful. This warning was given earlier but since it did not come about that time, it came now.

Bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern in Nifty? Target 5200

noreply@blogger.com (Vikas Sharma) — Sun, 07 Apr 2013 13:07:00 +0000

Thursday's close was a bit too hard for the Nifty to cross on Friday. Thursday's close was 5574 while Friday's high was 5577 and while the Nifty made at least 4 attempts to cross it decisively, it couldn't. Those are the signs of a weak market, of a market gripped by bears. the low made by the Nifty was 5534 but finally it managed to close a bit higher at around 5553, which was still 21 points in the red as compared to Thursday's close. It seems that the Nifty is still on its way down and with a much bigger target. There may be minor supports in-between which have been discussed below with the help of the charts shown.

Special Holi Bonanza - 30% Discount Offered

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 19:24:00 +0000

It's the festive season again and during these festive times everything (almost) is on a deal and everybody is offering discounts. So, I thought, I should offer the same benefits to my loyal readers too. This offer is valid only for a short period of time. To be precise, only for one week. The offer expires on 3rd April 2013.

Let me tell you what the offer is about. You must be aware that I conduct Technical Analysis courses for beginners and Day Trading Seminars for advanced users. This offer is being offered only for the beginners right now. A flat 30% discount is being offered for all the people who register for the Technical Analysis course on or before 3rd April 2013. The course is beneficial for all those who have always wondered why and how Technical Analysis works but don't know how to do the analysis. It is also beneficial for those who have read about the basic indicators and apply them in their trading also but still end up in losses. This course teaches you the "nitty-gritties" of each indicator and explains to you when each indicator should be applied and how actual signals are different from the traditional signals explained everywhere.

Time to be Careful - A Small Bounceback Likely

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sun, 24 Mar 2013 18:16:00 +0000

There is nothing new to suggest or to recommend. It is clear from the pattern that the Nifty is displaying, that we are in a downtrend and sufficiently clear that we may go down further. The suggested levels of 5528 are now looking like a bright possibility. Our first analysis of the market had suggested that we may revisit levels of 4300 once again. Now, whether the market actually goes to 4300 or not, it does not matter. While we will continue to remain short till those levels, we should also be wise enough to exit from shorts when we start getting signals that the downtrend may have finished. Let us look, once again, in detail about the next short term targets for the Nifty.

Reasons May Vary, But Markets Follow Technicals

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 19 Mar 2013 17:49:00 +0000

Ever since the 23rd of January, when the Nifty was trading at around 6050, I predicted a deep correction in the markets. When other analysts were predicting that the markets may correct a bit and come down to 5950, I went ahead and gave a target of 4300. Crazy, wouldn't you call me? Call me whatever you may, I write what I feel about the markets. I don't care what effect it has on the sentiments of the people, I don't care what my readers will think about me, I just write what I feel. I know some will love me, and some will hate me, but nobody can ignore me. But let me ask you a question. If you were holding large positions in stocks and I tell you that we may go down to 5950, you may probably continue to hold on to your positions. At 5950, if I tell you we may go to 5800, you may probably still hold on and then I tell you that we may go to 5600, you might consider exiting your positions. But by that time you have already lost 300 points in the Nifty, and if you were holding small caps or mid caps then, God save you (because they are the first ones to come down). Wouldn't it be better that I tell you early on that such a scenario may exist so that you can exit your positions there only? You tell me what is better?

Nifty Weakness Continuing, Next Target 5528

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sun, 17 Mar 2013 16:20:00 +0000

As I have been saying since over two months that the Nifty looks weak, the Nifty, as if listening to my analysis is doing exactly as I am predicting. This is not a good sign, at least not good for me. And the reason for that is that the market does not listen to any analyst and moves in a fashion known only to itself. And since there are a limited number of movements that the market can show, a few analysts may have their good days till the market decides to bring them back to Mother Earth. Not a good sign for me, because I'm having good days these days and only the market knows, how many days to prove me right. But, never mind that, my job is to analyse the markets and take trades in the direction of the trend and not try to fight and change the trend when the markets decide so.

How to Trade Using Risk-Reward-Ratio

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 07 Mar 2013 20:29:00 +0000

The market has a mind of its own. Which direction will it take in the future is unknown. Unknown not only to you, not only to me, but also to the best of analysts and astrologers. Yet you see the market full of such people who are trying to predict the markets, including yours truly. The reason why they are doing it is because it works, it actually works. But if you expect that you will get a positive result 100% of the times, then that is the biggest mistake you will be making. Technical Analysis, or for that matter, any technique, works most of the time but never 100% of the time. And that is the first and foremost thing that you and I need to understand.

A View on the Forex (Foreign Currencies) Market

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 01 Mar 2013 15:59:00 +0000

So, as expected, the market has fallen. It was probably holding on just because of the budget. As expected, the budget (being the last of the UPA - 2 regime), couldn't have been a reformist one. And because of the condition the country is in, it couldn't have been a populist one too. We are in dire need of money. With no reforms, it is sure to have an effect on the equity markets. Not only that, it will also affect the Forex markets and the Commodities markets. This post discusses just that - the effect of the Budget 2013 on the Equities, Commodities and Forex space.

An Elliott Wave Analysis of the Markets

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 23 Jan 2013 16:23:00 +0000

Some of my readers, sure, would be waiting for this post. I can say this because I had done an Elliott Wave Analysis of the markets once before and that post was a massive hit with my readers. A similar attempt is being made now on the current chart of Nifty. But a disclaimer goes with this post and that is that I'm not an expert on the Elliott Wave Principle. I have a little knowledge about it and I'm taking a risk of trying and numbering the waves with this little knowledge, a process which can even prove the best in the field wrong (at times). I would also advise my readers not to give too much of weightage to this post as the market may prove me wrong. But it still might turn out to be useful to read, in case my numbering turns out to be correct.

Nifty Falls To Support, May Bounceback

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 20 Nov 2012 19:20:00 +0000

The Nifty kept falling and finally, according to our forecast since September, went down to touch that trendline yesterday and then again, today. It opened today at a high at 5605, kept falling throughout the day till it made a low of 5548 and then posted a smart recovery towards the end of the session to close at 5571.

Commodities Now Looking Good

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sun, 11 Nov 2012 19:32:00 +0000

The Nifty after touching a high of 5777, just short of the previous high of 5815, has turned down again and closed 55 points in the red and has come back into the range of 5630-5730 that it was moving within. As of now, there is nothing to suggest that the Nifty has finished its uptrend and therefore we shall wait for some more time before taking short positions again. However, there is one thing that is causing concern. On 1st Nov, the Nofty made a high of 5649, while the next day the low was 5682, a gap of 33 points which was still unfilled. The lowest low the Nifty had made since then was 5679. Today, it made a low of 5677 and thus has come back into the 'uncharted territory'. This suggests that the gap may now be filled. While it should find support near 5650, but a move below that would be bearish.

US Elections Today - How Will The Markets React

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 15:51:00 +0000

Finally, the day has arrived. The campaigning is over and the battle between the two candidates is over. The war, however, hasn't ended. The next battle will be fought between the voters and it will be they who will decide the fate of the two candidates, President Barrack Obama and Mr. Mitt Romney. As of now, on the eve of the elections, the situation stands that Obama may have a slight advantage over Romney. Now the question is how are we affected as investors by what happens in the US? This post is written just to help us understand the consequences of the US elections.

How To Get STAGGERING Returns?

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 01 Nov 2012 20:33:00 +0000

Nifty went up for the second successive day today closing 25 points in the green. As mentioned yesterday, there are signs visible that we may not go down further and that the trend might reverse from the bottom made yesterday. Though, a pullback to 5630 was expected even in case of a bearish trend but the fact that it made a high of 5650 and that it even closed above that level of 5630 (closed at 5645 today) makes it look like the trend may have reversed now. If I have any short positions, I should be closing them now and start buying in small quantities. A confirmation that we are in an uptrend will come when the Nifty closes above 5730. We should be looking to fully invest our money at that stage.

A Sudden Bullishness Seen on Bearish Charts

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 31 Oct 2012 19:56:00 +0000

In the first half of the day, the Nifty was still uncertain about which way to go. It opened slightly in the positive, came down in the red, went to the greener territories again and then back into the red. Just like a yo-yo. But then a surprise came. The Nifty suddenly started going up at around 1 pm and then there was no looking back for it. It went up as if it was never bearish. But does that mean the bearishness is over. Maybe, but we would need more confirmation before we change our view to bullish. What's going to happen in the future, only the market can tell us. We can only make predictions and predictions can sometimes go wrong too. The only mantra to success is that we recognise the change of trend as early as possible and not try to fight the markets when the markets have proved us wrong. Maybe, just maybe, what we saw today was the first sign of the trend changing.