Daily Kos Elections

Daily Kos Elections is now a new site, The Downballot

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Mon, 19 Aug 2024 12:00:02 +0000

The Daily Kos Elections team has launched a new, independent site called The Downballot! You can find all of the same great content there, so please update your bookmarks.

For more information on this move, please see our launch announcement and our FAQ.

You can subscribe to The Downballot below. We'll see you over at our new home!

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Daily Kos Elections weekly open thread: The final edition

rss@dailykos.com (James Lambert) — Fri, 16 Aug 2024 22:00:12 +0000

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Folks, this is it: your final Daily Kos Elections weekly open thread ever. But it’s not our last open thread—not by a long shot. We’ll keep posting these every week over at our new home. See you next week at The Downballot!

Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 8/16

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Fri, 16 Aug 2024 12:00:06 +0000

Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. You can find our collection of public data at dailykosdata.com.

Please note: The Live Digest is a Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy.

IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT: This is the final edition of the Live Digest, but Daily Kos Elections is not going away! You’ll find Monday’s Morning Digest—and every edition after that—at our new site, The Downballot. It’s the perfect place to chat in comments!

You can read all about this change right here. Our operations are 100% reader-supported, so we hope you’ll subscribe today. Sign up just below!

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Morning Digest: Two candidates from opposite parties team up on Utah's GOP governor

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Fri, 16 Aug 2024 12:00:06 +0000

_{The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.}

IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT: This is the last Morning Digest that will be published at Daily Kos Elections, but we’re not going away! You’ll find Monday’s Digest—and every edition after that—at our new site, The Downballot. You can also subscribe by email just below to make sure you never miss a single update:

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You can read all about this change right here. Our operations are 100% reader-supported, so we hope you’ll subscribe today!

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● UT-Gov: Utah's three-way race for governor took another unexpected turn on Thursday when Democratic state Rep. Brian King debuted a campaign video co-starring far-right state Rep. Phil Lyman, the election conspiracy theorist who is waging a write-in campaign months after losing the GOP primary to Gov. Spencer Cox. But Cox is exactly what is uniting the two legislators in a piece parodying the governor's "Disagree Better" campaign.

"Now, Phil and I disagree better about most issues," King tells the audience with a wink after the on-screen text identifies him as the "Democratic candidate for Utah governor" and Lyman as "Former (or current depending on who you ask) GOP candidate for Utah governor *litigation pending*)." The two, though, respond in unison that they are united in the belief that "Spencer Cox should not be our next governor." The state representatives go on to politely argue whether voters should write in Lyman's name or cast their ballot for King.

Daily Kos Elections is becoming a new site: The Downballot

rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) — Thu, 15 Aug 2024 11:00:14 +0000

We are elated to announce our biggest news in the 21 years since we began covering elections: Daily Kos Elections is striking out on its own as an independent site called The Downballot!

If you're already a subscriber to our newsletter, the Morning Digest, you'll automatically be ported over to our new site, and you can expect to receive your first email from The Downballot on Monday. But to make this work, we need folks to become paying subscribers. Much more on that below, but if you're already sold, then you can upgrade your subscription right here!

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But first things first: We're doing this all with the blessing of Daily Kos, from founder Markos Moulitsas on down. Daily Kos has been our home since 2011, and it's been a marvelous one. We've done our best work here, forged incredible connections with our community of readers, and built a reputation for accurate, unbiased coverage that now stretches far beyond these orange walls.

Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 8/15

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Thu, 15 Aug 2024 13:00:06 +0000

Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. You can find our collection of public data at dailykosdata.com.

Please note: The Live Digest is a Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy.

Have you seen our big, big news? Daily Kos Elections is becoming The Downballot! We’re a new, independent site, but our mission remains unchanged: shining a spotlight on the thousands of elections below the presidency—races that all too often get overlooked.

You can read all about this announcement right here, and we’ve also prepared an FAQ. But if you have any questions, please fire away. Our operations are 100% reader-supported, so we hope you’ll subscribe today!

FAQ: The Daily Kos Elections transition to The Downballot

rss@dailykos.com (David Nir) — Thu, 15 Aug 2024 10:59:14 +0000

As you may have read, big changes are coming to Daily Kos Elections: We're leaving Daily Kos (with the company's blessing) to create a new independent site called The Downballot! Since we expect folks will have plenty of questions, we’ve put together this FAQ, though feel free to fire away in comments if there’s anything we’ve left unanswered.

So what's The Downballot going to be all about?

If you're a fan of Daily Kos Elections, then you already know, because our mission isn't changing one bit! We'll continue to shine a spotlight on the thousands of elections below the presidency, from Senate to city council, as we have for two decades. We'll bring you comprehensive insights through our Morning Digest newsletter every weekday morning, our unique data sets, and our weekly podcast—just as we do right now.

Why now?

In short, the media landscape has grown increasingly difficult, with plummeting ad revenues leading to serious cutbacks, including at Daily Kos. Our goal is to find a sustainable source of revenue that will allow us to keep focusing on these overlooked but critically important elections.

Here’s how: Instead of relying on advertising, The Downballot will be a subscription-based site, and we're asking you, our readers, for your support. Today's technology has opened up a new model for the media, one that gives small outfits like ours the opportunity to thrive by allowing us to depend on loyal readers rather than fickle advertisers.

Morning Digest: Trump and DeSantis butt heads one more time in nasty and expensive legislative race

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Thu, 15 Aug 2024 12:00:06 +0000

_{The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.}

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● FL State Senate: Next Tuesday's Republican primary for a dark red seat in the Florida state Senate is now one of the most expensive nomination contests for any office in the entire nation, as well as a proxy fight between Donald Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis. Longtime state Democratic strategist Steve Schale tweeted Tuesday that more than $13 million has been spent on TV ads for the 7th District, which is more than all but three U.S. House primaries this year.

Three candidates are facing off in this pricey battle to replace their fellow Republican, termed-out state Sen. Travis Hutson, in the 7th District in Florida’s northeast. State Rep. Tom Leek, who chairs the lower chamber's influential Appropriations Committee, sports endorsements from Hutson, DeSantis, U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, and other prominent state and local Republicans. There's long been talk that, if Leek wins a promotion to the upper chamber, he could eventually serve as Senate president.

Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 8/14

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Wed, 14 Aug 2024 12:59:08 +0000

Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. You can find our collection of public data at dailykosdata.com.

Please note: The Live Digest is a Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy.

Subscribe to our podcast, The Downballot! New episodes every Thursday morning.

Morning Digest: Missouri Republicans tried to keep abortion off the ballot. They failed

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Wed, 14 Aug 2024 12:00:04 +0000

_{The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.}

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● MO Ballot: After putting up every possible roadblock, Republican officials finally certified an amendment for the November ballot that would allow voters to restore abortion rights in the state of Missouri.

Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, who last week took a disappointing third place in the Republican primary for the state's open governorship, issued a press release Tuesday confirming that the amendment, which will be identified as Amendment 3 on the ballot, had turned in the requisite number of signatures. He also gave the green light to a separate amendment concerning gambling, as well as a statutory measure that would increase the minimum wage.

Live coverage: Aug. 13 primaries in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Wed, 14 Aug 2024 00:59:16 +0000

Downballot primaries continue tonight with races in four states. We'll begin our live coverage at 9 PM ET/8 PM CT when polls close in Minnesota and Wisconsin. We'll be liveblogging the results here and also covering the returns closely on X.

Key Races: Previews | Live cheat-sheet

Results: Associated Press | New York Times | Politico

Trump ordered a GOP candidate to drop out. He could win on Tuesday

rss@dailykos.com (Jeff Singer) — Mon, 12 Aug 2024 20:48:04 +0000

We've entered the final month of the downballot primary season, but there's still more action on Tuesday as voters in four more states choose their nominees for congressional and state offices. Most of the action will be in Minnesota and Wisconsin, which feature primary contests both in key November battlegrounds and contests where winning the primary is tantamount to election.

Connecticut and Vermont are also on tap, but there's less drama in both New England states. No member of Connecticut's all-Democratic House delegation faces any primary opposition whatsoever, and the only one who is vulnerable in November, Rep. Jahana Hayes, already knows she'll be facing a rematch against her 2022 GOP foe, former state Sen. George Logan. There is even less to watch in Vermont, where all the state's prominent officeholders are set to cruise to another term.

Below, you'll find our guide to all of the top races to watch in Minnesota and Wisconsin. When it’s available, we'll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each race, but if we don't mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.

Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 8/13

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Tue, 13 Aug 2024 12:59:06 +0000

Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. You can find our collection of public data at dailykosdata.com.

Please note: The Live Digest is a Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy.

Subscribe to our podcast, The Downballot! New episodes every Thursday morning.

Morning Digest: Democrats to pick nominee for seat that got away in '22

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Tue, 13 Aug 2024 12:00:14 +0000

_{The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.}

Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast

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● Primary Night: We've entered the homestretch of the 2024 primary season, but as Jeff Singer details in our election night preview, there's still plenty to watch Tuesday in Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Badger State Democrats have a competitive battle to decide who will take on freshman Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden in an ancestrally blue southwestern Wisconsin seat that veered hard to the right after Donald Trump took over the GOP. This area, though, may not be lost to the Democrats. Van Orden only beat state Sen. Brad Pfaff 52-48 in 2022 after national Democrats canceled their ad reservations, while progressive Janet Protasiewicz decisively carried it months later in the officially nonpartisan state Supreme Court race.

Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 8/12

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Mon, 12 Aug 2024 12:59:03 +0000

Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. You can find our collection of public data at dailykosdata.com.

Please note: The Live Digest is a Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy.

Subscribe to our podcast, The Downballot! New episodes every Thursday morning.

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Morning Digest: Would-be spoiler drops Nebraska Senate bid, buoying independent hopeful

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Mon, 12 Aug 2024 12:00:13 +0000

_{The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.}

Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast

Leading Off

● NE-Sen-A: Independent candidate Dan Osborn's hopes of pulling off an upset in Nebraska against Republican Sen. Deb Fischer, who has no Democratic opponent, got a major boost in late July after a third-party contender dropped out and endorsed him to avoid playing spoiler. That minor party, known as Legal Marijuana NOW, could still name a replacement, but it has already missed a self-imposed deadline to do so.

Polling sponsored by Osborn has shown him in a close battle against Fischer, but notably, his surveys did not include Kerry Eddy, the former Legal Marijuana NOW candidate.

Daily Kos Elections weekly open thread

rss@dailykos.com (James Lambert) — Fri, 09 Aug 2024 22:00:08 +0000

YouTube Video

Please note: This weekly open thread is a Democratic presidential primary-free zone.

Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 8/9

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Fri, 09 Aug 2024 12:59:07 +0000

Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. You can find our collection of public data at dailykosdata.com.

Please note: The Live Digest is a Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy.

Subscribe to our podcast, The Downballot! New episodes every Thursday morning.

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Morning Digest: The GOP has a stealth plan to kneecap Wisconsin's governor

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Fri, 09 Aug 2024 12:00:12 +0000

_{The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.}

Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast

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● WI Ballot: Wisconsin Democrats and their allies are waging an expensive campaign to convince voters next week to reject two Republican-backed constitutional amendments that would strip Democratic Gov. Tony Evers of key powers. But while conservatives don't appear to be spending nearly as much money on their campaign, the timing of the election and the wording of the two amendments could overcome any Democratic financial advantage.

One of these amendments, which will be identified on the ballot as Question 1, would bar legislators from delegating authority over spending to the executive branch, a critical tool that gives officials leeway to address emergencies and other unforeseen issues. Question 2, likewise, would prohibit the governor from dispensing federal funds without the legislature's explicit permission. The GOP legislature wrote both amendments and scheduled them to appear on the Aug. 13 primary ballot, a day without any other major statewide races.

Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 8/8

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Thu, 08 Aug 2024 12:59:06 +0000

Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. You can find our collection of public data at dailykosdata.com.

Please note: The Live Digest is a Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy.

Subscribe to our podcast, The Downballot! New episodes every Thursday morning.

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Morning Digest: A perennial GOP candidate in Alaska has new best friends—the Democrats

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Thu, 08 Aug 2024 12:00:19 +0000

_{The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.}

Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast

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● AK-AL: Politico's Ally Mutnick reports that Vote Alaska Before Party, a Democratic group funded by House Majority PAC, is spending close to $1 million in an attempt to boost an unheralded Republican perennial candidate named Gerald Heikes in the Aug. 20 top-four primary.

Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola and two prominent GOP foes, Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom and businessman Nick Begich, are poised to claim three of the spots in the instant-runoff general election. Democrats, however, seem convinced they'd benefit if that final slot goes to Heikes instead of one of the other eight minor candidates.

Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 8/7

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Wed, 07 Aug 2024 12:59:02 +0000

Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. You can find our collection of public data at dailykosdata.com.

Please note: The Live Digest is a Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy.

Subscribe to our podcast, The Downballot! New episodes every Thursday morning.

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Morning Digest: What happens in Minnesota if Tim Walz is elected vice president

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Wed, 07 Aug 2024 12:10:38 +0000

_{The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.}

Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast

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● MN-Gov: Vice President Kamala Harris tapped Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate on Tuesday, a decision that could usher in a new era of leadership in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.

Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan would become Minnesota's new chief executive should the Harris-Walz ticket prevail in November, an ascension that would make her the first woman to lead the state. Flanagan, a member of the White Earth Band of Ojibwe, would also be the first Native American woman to serve as governor of any state. No matter what, though, this office will next be on the ballot in 2026 for a full four-year term.

Live coverage: Aug. 6 primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Wed, 07 Aug 2024 02:21:58 +0000

Downballot primaries continue tonight with races in four states. We'll begin our live coverage at 8 PM ET when polls close in Missouri and nearly all of Kansas and Michigan. Polls close in the rest of Kansas and Michigan at 9 PM ET, and voting ends in Washington at 11 PM ET. We'll be liveblogging the results here and also covering the returns closely on X.

Key Races: Previews | Live cheat-sheet

Results: Associated Press | New York Times | Politico

Live coverage: Aug. 6 primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Wed, 07 Aug 2024 02:21:49 +0000

Key Races: Previews | Live cheat-sheet

Results: Associated Press | New York Times | Politico

Playing a starring role in Tuesday's primaries: Darth Vader

rss@dailykos.com (Jeff Singer) — Mon, 05 Aug 2024 20:39:37 +0000

Voters across four states pick their candidates Tuesday for downballot offices, including in multiple House races where incumbents are in danger of losing, in one of the biggest primary nights of the year. Donald Trump is doing his part to make this night eventful by endorsing 12 candidates in eight competitive races—yes, you read that right.

Below, you'll find our guide to all of the top primaries to watch, arranged chronologically by each state’s poll closing times. When it’s available, we'll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each race, but if we don't mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.

If Harris and Walz win, Minnesota will elevate the nation's first Native woman governor

rss@dailykos.com (Jeff Singer) — Tue, 06 Aug 2024 15:59:57 +0000

Vice President Kamala Harris tapped Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate on Tuesday, a decision that could usher in a new era of leadership in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.

Walz, writes KARE 11's Jeremiah Jacobsen, would be the state's first governor to resign since 1976, when Sen. Walter Mondale's election as Jimmy Carter's vice president set off a volatile chain of events back home that proved disastrous for Democrats.

Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 8/6

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Tue, 06 Aug 2024 12:59:10 +0000

Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. You can find our collection of public data at dailykosdata.com.

Please note: The Live Digest is a Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy.

Subscribe to our podcast, The Downballot! New episodes every Thursday morning.

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Morning Digest: Another top-two disaster could befall Washington Democrats in a statewide race

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Tue, 06 Aug 2024 12:00:11 +0000

_{The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.}

Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast

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Leading Off

● Primary Night: Tuesday brings us one of the biggest primary nights of the cycle, and as always, Jeff Singer previews the big contests to watch—including the eight races where Donald Trump is supporting a total of 12 different candidates.

Trump issued yet another dual endorsement over the weekend when he wrote that he was now supporting motivational speaker Tiffany Smiley's intraparty bid against Washington Rep. Dan Newhouse, who is one of the two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump following the Jan. 6 riot. Trump, though, made it clear he was also sticking with the man he backed back in April, former NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler, ahead of the top-two primary for this conservative seat.

Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 8/5

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Mon, 05 Aug 2024 12:59:03 +0000

Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. You can find our collection of public data at dailykosdata.com.

Please note: The Live Digest is a Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy.

Subscribe to our podcast, The Downballot! New episodes every Thursday morning.

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Morning Digest: Former GOP frontrunner hopes last-second bailout will save his bid for governor

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Mon, 05 Aug 2024 12:00:10 +0000

_{The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.}

Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast

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Leading Off

● MO-Gov: AdImpact reports that a little-known super PAC called Stand for US PAC has dropped $3.1 million on ads to help state Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft ahead of Tuesday's Republican primary for governor, an investment that the former front-runner is hoping will help him revive his fortunes when it matters most.

The secretary of state could very much use the money because recent surveys, including one released over the weekend, find Ashcroft and Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe locked in a tight battle. This poll for the political tip-sheet Missouri Scout from the GOP firm Battleground Connect shows the two statewide elected officials deadlocked 26-26, with state Sen. Bill Eigel in third with 17%. The results are almost identical to a poll conducted days earlier for the Scout by another Republican pollster, Remington Research Group.

Daily Kos Elections weekly open thread

rss@dailykos.com (James Lambert) — Fri, 02 Aug 2024 22:00:10 +0000

YouTube Video

Note: This weekly open thread is a Democratic presidential primary-free zone.

Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 8/2

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Fri, 02 Aug 2024 13:00:03 +0000

UPDATE: Friday, Aug 2, 2024 · 10:16:25 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf

• NC-Gov: Following months of attacks over his support for a total ban on abortion, Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson has launched a commercial purporting to address the issue by speaking directly to the camera alongside his wife. Robinson acknowledges that the couple got an abortion three decades ago, claiming it's why he "stands by our current law" that he contends allows abortion for up to 12 weeks with exceptions for the "life of the mother, incest, and rape."

Robinson has long been open about his extreme position on the issue, previously comparing abortion to "genocide" and calling it murder even if the woman was just "24 hours pregnant." During his successful run for lieutenant governor four years ago, he declared, "For me, there is no compromise on abortion. It makes no difference to me why or how that child ended up in that womb."

This year, he's tried to avoid even uttering the word abortion, saying he prefers to talk about "life" instead of the "a-word." But during a January interview with anti-abortion movement leader Tony Perkins, Robinson explained, "[L]ots of people seem to get confused on that. They think that I've changed my position. I have not changed my position, I've just changed what I'm saying."

Robinson has more explicitly espoused hardline views on abortion this year, too. After Republican legislators passed a 12-week ban last year that put onerous restrictions on access even before 12 weeks, Robinson said at February event, "We’ve got it down to 12 weeks. The next goal is to get it down to 6, and then just keep moving from there ..."

Robinson's latest ad comes after Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein and his supporters have been hammering him with ads using his own words. In one spot, Robinson says he would "pass a bill saying you can't have an abortion in North Carolina for any reason." A 2019 clip that has been aired heavily since June shows Robinson excoriating women by claiming, "Abortion in this country is not about protecting the lives of mothers. It is about killing the child because you weren’t responsible enough to keep your skirt down."

• AK-AL: Rep. Mary Peltola has become the first Democratic congressional candidate to pick up an endorsement from the NRA since 2020, when it supported Minnesota Rep. Collin Peterson's unsuccessful reelection bid.

• FL-08: Florida Politics has obtained a Spry Strategies internal poll for former state Senate President Mike Haridopolos that shows him cruising to a 56-6 lead over his nearest opponent, businessman John Hearton, in the Aug. 20 Republican primary for this safely red open seat. Haridopolos is in this favorable position because Rep. Bill Posey announced his retirement after candidate filing closed in April when it was too late for anyone else to run.

• NE-02: Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas has publicized a Global Strategy Group internal poll that found him beating GOP Rep. Don Bacon 46-44, though the survey was conducted in late June and overlapped with Joe Biden's disastrous debate performance. The only other recent poll anyone has released here was a Torchlight Strategies internal from July 8-11 for Republican Sen. Deb Fischer that showed her ticketmate holding off Vargas 46-43 in a district that Biden won 52-46 in 2020.

• PA-07: Politico relays that a Tarrance Group internal for the NRCC and state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie shows the Republican nominee trailing 47-45 against Democratic Rep. Susan Wild. While the July 21-24 survey also included a matchup between Trump and Kamala Harris, that period covered the day that Biden dropped out, before Harris became the presumptive nominee. Biden won this district 50-49 in 2020.

• CO Ballot: Supporters of a ballot initiative to adopt a top-four primary say they have submitted 213,000 voter signatures to qualify for November's ballot. This statutory measure needs roughly 124,000 valid signatures, a threshold it appears likely to meet.

However, part of a bipartisan law passed earlier this year could prohibit ranked-choice voting in federal and state elections until certain conditions have been met, including its adoption in local elections in counties with certain demographic characteristics. Shortly after that law's passage, though, Democratic Gov. Jared Polis claimed he would "take prompt and good faith actions" to implement the proposal if voters approve it, and bipartisan legislative leaders expressed similar views.

If this ballot measures qualifies and wins majority approval in November, the proposal would abolish party primaries for Congress and state-level offices. (Presidential contests would be unaffected.) Instead, all candidates would run on a single ballot in the first round "primary," and the top four finishers regardless of party would advance to a general election using ranked-choice voting.

The reform effort has largely been led by wealthy former healthcare CEO Kent Thiry, who previously considered running for governor as a Republican in 2018. Thiry has spent big on successful ballot initiatives that he's claimed would empower centrist voters, including creating an independent redistricting commission and opening party primaries to unaffiliated voters.

However, Thiry may have another motive this time: Should his proposal be adopted, it could allow him to run for governor on a center-right platform and avoid a Republican primary dominated by far-right voters.

• Washington, D.C. Ballot: Election officials in the nation's capital have certified that a ballot initiative to adopt instant-runoff voting and let independents vote in party primaries beginning in 2026 will go before voters this November. However, the D.C. Council, which has 11 Democrats and two independents, would have to approve funding before it could be implemented.

Currently, only voters registered with a party may participate in that party's primary, and winning a plurality in the Democratic contest is typically tantamount to victory in this dark-blue city. This new proposal mirrors the system used in Maine, where separate party primaries and generals both use instant-runoff voting, in contrast to Alaska, where candidates run on a single all-party primary ballot and the top four finishers proceed to an instant-runoff general election.

The local Democratic Party is still challenging the measure's validity in court, arguing it violates city law. However, a lower court previously ruled against the party, and Washington City Paper's Alex Koma writes that it's unclear whether the appeals court will issue a decision before November's election.

UPDATE: Friday, Aug 2, 2024 · 9:54:53 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

TX-18: GOP Gov. Greg Abbott also announced Friday that the special election for the remainder of Jackson Lee's term would take place on Nov. 5, the same day as the contest for a full two-year term.

UPDATE: Friday, Aug 2, 2024 · 9:50:56 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

• MO-Gov: AdImpact reports that a little-known super PAC called Stand for US PAC has dropped $3.1 million on ads to help state Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft ahead of Tuesday's Republican primary for governor, an investment that the former front-runner is hoping will help him revive his fortunes when it matters most.

Ashcroft, who is a member of one of Missouri's most prominent political families, spent months with a wide lead in the polls against his two main intraparty rivals, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe and state Sen. Bill Eigel. But the secretary of state has struggled to compete financially against the well-funded Kehoe, and both he and his affiliated committee had little money left when the most recent reports were finalized on July 25.

But Stand for US, which the Missouri Independent's Rudi Keller says doesn't need to disclose its donors until after the primary, is coming to the onetime favorite's rescue. In a separate piece for the site, Jeff Smith writes that this late offensive means that Ashcroft's side "for the first time [will] approach parity with Kehoe’s media buy for the final week."

Kehoe, who has the backing of termed-out Gov. Mike Parson, is still hoping that his longtime dominance of the airwaves will pay off. AdImpact says that, even with Stand for US' late intervention the lieutenant governor and his allies have outspent Ashcroft's side $11.2 million to $6.5 million, with another $4.4 million going to support Eigel.

Kehoe began airing ads against Ashcroft months ago, including a commercial depicting Chinese-speaking cows branded with a hammer and sickle accusing Ashcroft of having "testified in support of a law allowing the Chinese Communist Party to buy land here in Missouri," but he's also been attacking Eigel as of late.

Kehoe declares in a new ad that the state senator "acts like a clown" and that "President Trump told him to stop misleading voters." (Donald Trump's campaign last year told Eigel's PAC to "cease and desist" sending out fundraising emails that implied donations would go to Trump.) Kehoe, though, also used that spot to remind viewers that Ashcroft expressed skepticism that veterans should receive special benefits. Kehoe goes on to inform viewers that he has Trump's endorsement―though he doesn't mention that Ashcroft and Eigel do as well.

Smith, though, says that many ads from Kehoe's side are devoted to attacking just one opponent or the other depending on where in the state Ashcroft and Eigel are performing well. Smith explains that allies of the lieutenant governor, who has acknowledged he's not a "flame-thrower, or somebody who throws hand grenades," believe his brand of conservatism is unlikely to appeal to enough primary voters to get him anywhere close to a majority.

That's fine as long as Ashcroft, who has presented himself as an ardent abortion-rights foe, and Eigel, who has pledged to immolate books with his flamethrower, are competing for a similar bloc of voters. Kehoe, though, would be in trouble if one of his rivals collapses and the other hoovers up their supporters, so it's in his best interest to make sure this doesn't happen.

Stand for US, though, is betting that Eigel doesn't need to be taken down for Ashcroft to win. The super PAC's commercials are attacking Kehoe as part of a corrupt status quo, with the narrator proclaiming that "the Parson-Kehoe Administration is adding fuel to the fire, caving to Jefferson City lobbyists and approving legislation subsidizing health care for illegals." The commercial also touts that Ashcroft has Trump's endorsement, though unsurprisingly, it doesn't mention that the GOP's supreme master refused to pick a favorite here.

Kehoe's legal team, which is seeking to have the ad taken off the air, is arguing, "The assertion that there is a ‘Parson-Kehoe administration’ is false … All the actions referred to in the ad were solely and exclusively taken by Governor Parson and not one action was taken by Lt. Gov. Kehoe." Stand for US responded by gloating that Kehoe is trying to separate himself from his top supporter.

Eigel, for his part, generated attention last month with a racist ad where he pledged to jail and deport undocumented immigrants, much to the increasing consternation of a Latino actor tasked with translating that message into Spanish. He's since then unveiled a spot attacking Kehoe―but not Ashcroft―and his "tax-hiking, China-loving, soft-on-immigration RINO record." And wouldn't you know it, Eigel is also running a commercial that touts how he's the candidate "endorsed by Trump."

• MO-AG: Stand for US PAC is also airing ads to help appointed Attorney General Andrew Bailey fend off Trump attorney Will Scharf in Tuesday's GOP primary, and its efforts have helped the incumbent narrow what was once an intimidating financial gap. AdImpact reports that Scharf and his allies, though, have still outspent Bailey's side $9.7 million to $7 million on ads.

Every released poll has shown the attorney general ahead, though they disagree on how large his advantage is. Donald Trump, for his part, issued a dual endorsement on Wednesday.

• TN State Legislature: While wealthy donors who want to use taxpayer money to pay for private schools had a mostly successful night in Thursday's Republican legislative primaries, they were on the losing side in a key race that turned into a proxy battle between Donald Trump and Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee. Bobby Harshbarger, who is the son of U.S. Rep. Diana Harshbarger, defeated Senate Education Committee Chair Jon Lundberg 52-48. The younger Harshbarger's victory came shortly after his father, Bob Harshbarger, received a judicial summons for allegedly stealing Lundberg's signs.

Trump backed Bobby Harshbarger last month in a Truth Social post that reminded his base that "Bobby’s mother is the GREAT Congresswoman from Tennessee, Diana Harshbarger." Trump followed up on Thursday night by crowing, "I went 10 for 10 on endorsements tonight in the Great State of Tennessee, including Bobby Harshbarger, running against a strong, long-term incumbent supported by RINO Governor Bill Lee." Trump didn't elaborate on what else Lee had done to piss him off, though The Tennessean's Melissa Brown notes that the governor didn't take sides during the presidential primary.

School-voucher supporters, who deployed a total of $4.5 million across 16 GOP primaries and one Democratic contest, had more success elsewhere. The Club for Growth's School Freedom Fund and allied groups were on the winning side in 12 of these races, while Lundberg was one of the five defeated candidates they backed. These losers also include another incumbent, state Rep. John Ragan, and Democrat Dasha Lundy, who failed to unseat state Rep. Sam McKenzie.

• TX-18: Several Houston Democrats on Friday announced their campaigns to succeed the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, whose funeral took place the previous day, in this safely blue seat. The new arrivals include:

Former City Council Member Dwight Boykins
Former City Council Member Amanda Edwards
State Rep. Christina Morales
City Council Member Letitia Plummer
Former Mayor Sylvester Turner
Harris County Democratic Party official Corisha Rogers

Another Democrat, state Rep. Jarvis Johnson, announced he was in last month.

It will be up to the leaders of the Harris County Democratic Party to replace Jackson Lee, who won the March primary by beating Edwards, on the general election ballot. The gathering has not yet been scheduled, though party head Mike Doyle has said it will likely take place on Aug. 15 or Aug. 17. It's also not clear when the candidate filing deadline will be, though a candidate forum is scheduled for Aug. 10.

The field may still expand, though one prospective candidate, state Rep. Jolanda Jones, took herself out of contention by endorsing Turner. The former mayor also has the support of Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo, who is the county's chief executive, and Rep. Lizzie Fletcher of the nearby 7th District.

UPDATE: Friday, Aug 2, 2024 · 9:33:15 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

Ad Roundup:

AZ-Sen: Kari Lake (R) - anti-Ruben Gallego (D)
MI-Sen: Great Lakes Conservative Fund - pro-Mike Rogers (R)
MT-Sen: Jon Tester (D-inc) - anti-Tim Sheehy (R); Sheehy - anti-Tester (here and here)
NM-Sen: Martin Heinrich (D-inc) - anti-Nella Domenici (R); Domenici - anti-Heinrich
NV-Sen: Win It Back PAC (Club for Growth affiliate)- anti-Jacky Rosen (D-inc) ($4 million buy)
TX-Sen: Colin Allred (D) - anti-Ted Cruz (R-inc)
WI-Sen: Eric Hovde (R) - anti-Tammy Baldwin (D-inc)
PA-01: Ashley Ehasz (D)
WI-08: Tony Wied (R)
Los Angeles County, CA District Attorney: Nathan Hochman (in Spanish)

Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. You can find our collection of public data at dailykosdata.com.

Please note: The Live Digest is a Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy.

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Morning Digest: Recount confirms Freedom Caucus chair still a loser

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Fri, 02 Aug 2024 12:00:02 +0000

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● VA-05: Thursday's recount confirmed state Sen. John McGuire's tight victory against House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good in the June 18 Republican primary for Virginia's conservative 5th District. McGuire finished with a 370-vote advantage over the head of Congress' notorious far-right bloc, a slight drop from the 374-vote lead he began the day with, and the incumbent conceded that evening.

Good's narrow defeat, which comes after he infuriated Donald Trump by endorsing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' doomed presidential bid, puts him in a small club that nobody wants to be in―and no, it's not the Freedom Caucus.

Open thread: Tennessee primaries

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Fri, 02 Aug 2024 00:00:03 +0000

Polls are now closed in Tennessee for America’s only regularly-scheduled Thursday primary. Note that, unlike in many Southern states, it takes only a plurality of the vote to win in the Volunteer State. You can find our guide to the key primaries here.

Results: Associated Press | New York Times | Politico

Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 8/1

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Thu, 01 Aug 2024 12:59:05 +0000

Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. You can find our collection of public data at dailykosdata.com.

Please note: The Live Digest is a Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy.

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Morning Digest: Will the GOP boot another member of its Con Artist Caucus?

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Thu, 01 Aug 2024 12:00:05 +0000

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● TN-05: Republican Rep. Andy Ogles is about to learn if the twin powers of incumbency and Donald Trump's endorsement are enough for the freshman to overcome a series of scandals and a well-funded opponent in Tennessee, which as always hosts America's only Thursday night primary.

Ogles' sole intraparty foe in the 5th District, which GOP map makers made safely red two years ago, is Courtney Johnston, who is a member of Nashville's Metro Council. Johnston has used her wide fundraising advantage to air commercials portraying the congressman as someone who "gets nothing done."

Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 7/31

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Wed, 31 Jul 2024 12:59:08 +0000

Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. You can find our collection of public data at dailykosdata.com.

Please note: The Live Digest is a Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy.

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Morning Digest: Rivals are lining up to unseat New York City's unpopular mayor

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Wed, 31 Jul 2024 12:16:46 +0000

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● New York City, NY Mayor: New York City Comptroller Brad Lander announced Tuesday that he would take on Mayor Eric Adams in next June's instant-runoff Democratic primary, a declaration that makes Lander the first major challenger to announce a campaign.

Lander's 2021 win made him one of the most influential progressives in America's largest city, but he'll almost certainly need to get past several other Democrats also looking to oust the unpopular Adams, whose approval rating sank to record lows over the winter. Two local politicians, former city Comptroller Scott Stringer and state Sen. Zellnor Myrie, each formed an exploratory committee earlier this year.

Open thread: Arizona primaries

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Wed, 31 Jul 2024 02:00:03 +0000

Polls are now closed in Arizona, where voters are selecting nominees for congressional, state, and local offices. You can find our guide to the key primaries here.

Results: Associated Press | New York Times | Politico

Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 7/30

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Tue, 30 Jul 2024 12:59:18 +0000

Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. You can find our collection of public data at dailykosdata.com.

Please note: The Live Digest is a Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy.

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Morning Digest: The nastiest GOP primary at last comes to a merciful end

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Tue, 30 Jul 2024 12:00:22 +0000

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● Primary Night: Arizona's new embrace of swing-state status means it's now home to loads of competitive elections up and down the ballot, and Jeff Singer previews the big primaries to watch on Tuesday. Many of these contests will help determine which party holds power in important offices across the state, though some are just good old-fashioned primaries for safe districts―including one internecine battle that has outdone all others in setting new records for Republican repulsiveness.

Newly swingy Arizona has must-watch elections coming out the wazoo

rss@dailykos.com (Jeff Singer) — Mon, 29 Jul 2024 20:07:43 +0000

After a monthlong break, the 2024 downballot primary season picks up again on Tuesday as voters in Arizona select their party nominees in some of the most important―and ugliest―contests in the nation. In Arizona, like in most states, it takes just a simple plurality to win the primary.

And if it seems like the Grand Canyon State is voting a bit earlier than usual, there's a good reason. While Arizona previously waited until early August to hold its primaries, a new law moved it forward a week to alleviate pressure on elected officials who now expect more frequent recounts due to a separate law passed in 2022.

Polls close at 10 PM ET/7 PM local time in most of the state, though because the Navajo Nation observes daylight saving time, voting will conclude one hour earlier there.

Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 7/29

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Mon, 29 Jul 2024 12:59:06 +0000

Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. You can find our collection of public data at dailykosdata.com.

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Morning Digest: Blue-trending Georgia county must re-do elections using GOP gerrymander

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Mon, 29 Jul 2024 12:00:02 +0000

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● Cobb County, GA Board of Commissioners: A Georgia court ruled on Thursday that the Democratic-run Cobb County Board of Commissioners violated the state constitution by adopting its own district map for the 2022 elections to replace a gerrymander that Republican state lawmakers enacted for this diverse county with nearly 800,000 residents in Atlanta's suburbs. Elections will be postponed for the two districts that were up this year, necessitating special elections with new primaries, likely in 2025.

The county Board of Elections chair indicated that the board likely won't appeal, meaning the GOP's gerrymander will take effect. Democrats ended 36 years of GOP rule in 2020 by winning a 3-2 majority consisting of three Black women, while both Republicans are white. However, the ruling could temporarily cost Democrats that majority in a county that Joe Biden won 56-42 and has rapidly been moving leftward over the past decade.

Daily Kos Elections weekly open thread

rss@dailykos.com (James Lambert) — Fri, 26 Jul 2024 22:00:08 +0000

YouTube Video

Please note: This weekly open thread is a Democratic presidential primary-free space.

Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 7/26

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Fri, 26 Jul 2024 13:08:15 +0000

Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. You can find our collection of public data at dailykosdata.com.

Please note: The Live Digest is a Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy.

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Morning Digest: Los Angeles could create one of America's most powerful offices

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Fri, 26 Jul 2024 12:00:19 +0000

_{The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.}

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● Los Angeles, CA County Ballot: The Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors voted 3-2 on Tuesday to advance a proposed ballot measure to create what would likely be one of the most impactful elected positions in the country. Under this plan, voters would elect an executive by 2028 to lead America's most populous county, a heavily Democratic community that is larger than 40 different states.

However, plenty of obstacles remain ahead for this proposal, which would also expand the Board of Supervisors from five members to nine by 2032 and make other changes to county government. The supervisors must still vote once more next month to get the plan on the general election ballot. Supervisor Lindsey Horvath, a Democrat who co-authored the proposal, previously said this final vote would take place on Aug. 6, three days before the deadline.

Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 7/25

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Thu, 25 Jul 2024 12:59:19 +0000

Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. You can find our collection of public data at dailykosdata.com.

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Morning Digest: Wyoming's GOP establishment fights to hold off 'authoritarian' Freedom Caucus

rss@dailykos.com (Daily Kos Elections) — Thu, 25 Jul 2024 12:00:04 +0000

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● WY State House: While Wyoming has long been one of the most conservative states in America, the local affiliate of the nihilistic House Freedom Caucus is calling on GOP primary voters to move the Equality State even further to the right next month. WyoFile's Maya Shimizu Harris details how the Wyoming Freedom Caucus is targeting several seats in the state House of Representatives on Aug. 20 as part of its long-term effort to replace a party establishment it has denounced as "liberals."

The state Freedom Caucus' intraparty enemies, though, have organized their own Wyoming Caucus to counter an organization they've derided as "authoritarian." Speaker Pro Tempore Clark Stith, who chairs the Wyoming Caucus, argued to the Jackson Hole News&Guide's Jasmine Hall, "[I]f the Freedom Caucus takes over there will be a dismantling of programs that ordinary citizens come to depend on." Stith, who is trying to fend off a primary challenger, added, "It would be very destructive."