The three-man delegation of Syrians which is visiting Washington spoke at the Brookings Institute today. They are Dr. Sami Moubayed (Academic, jounalist), Samir Saifan (Economist, businessman), and Samir al-Taki ([Taqi] medical doctor and head of Syria's leading think tank). They have a busy schedule of meetings and talks with congressmen and other Washington types this week. Their meeting with the U.S. State Department on Wednesday was canceled. So was a meeting with leaders of AIPAC. Here is how the State Dept. explained the cancelation:

"Representatives from the State Department will not meet with this group from Syria," State Department spokesman Gonzalo Gallegos told reporters. "Upon review of their program, and changes in schedules, ultimately, (it) did not work out."

Here are a few of the main points made by Dr. al-Taqi who gave a prepared comment of only 10 minutes before opening the floor to questions:

From 2001 until UN Resolution 1559 was issued in the fall of 2004, Israel and the US tried to end the Arab-Israeli confrontation by means of a unilateral peace. Sharon had decided to impose a peace pleasing to it on the Palestinians. Syria gambled that such a peace was impossible — "You cannot close the Arab-Israeli conflict without dealing with the core problems. There cannot be a unilateral peace," said Samir al-Taki.

We now have about eight collapsing states in the region. This means more asymmetrical conflict in the region. The regional problems are getting worse and are more over-lapping. The US and Israeli decision to use force to impose unilateral solutions on the area has failed. It has made the region more dangerous and the problems more intractable.

Only dialogue, negotiations and compromise will solve regional problems and attenuate the violence that threatens us all.

This was the gist of Dr. Taki's prepared remarks. I was unable to take proper notes on the questions. I will try to summarize some of the main categories of questions and give an inexact and highly condensed summary of the responses.

Question: What was the reason for resuming negotiations with Israel?

Answer: Because Ariel Sharon was given carte blanche to destroy the PLO and Palestinian leadership, he opened the way in front of all kinds of extremists. Syria needed to stop this trend. Only dialogue and mutual solutions can solve our problems and open a way forward for all states in the region.

Question: Compare Iran and Turkey as allies of Syria.

Answer: Syria has a right and obligation to seek out regional allies. When Syria thinks about allies in the region, it thinks of Iran. When it thinks of opportunities, it thinks of Turkey.

Question: What does Syria want from the US?

Answer: We need the US. We can discuss bilateral problems with Israel, but we need the US to discuss regional problems. The US is our neighbor now. In some ways, Fallujah is closer to Washington than New Orleans is. If Syria wants good relations with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and other states of the region, Washington is an important part of the equation.

Question: Hizbullah. Will Syria shut down Hizbullah if there is peace with Israel?

Answer: Asymmetrical warfare is what is going on in the region. Hizbullah and non-state actors can make their enemies bleed, but what is the endgame of violence? It is to bring one's opponent to the negotiating table. Non-state actors cannot win or bring opponents to the table. For that you must have states and recognized governments.

As for whether Syria will "shut down" or "disarm" Hizbullah, Syria has left Lebanon. Hizbullah is Lebanon's problem now. We are not in Lebanon. Under the present circumstances, Syria must use all its options in its struggle to regain the Golan and secure its security and national interests in the region. Only when we are headed toward peace and assured of a real change in regional dynamics, will Syria choose between allies and make such difficult decisions, but Syria is ready to move — hopefully the need to make decisions will come sooner than later.

Question: Will Syria really support disarming Hizbullah and stopping its rearmament?

Answer: When the Lebanese as a society and one people are ready to integrate Hizbullah's militia into the army or to disarm it, Syria will be ready to support that decision.

Question: What is your advice for the next US president?

Answer: Appoint a US ambassador in Damascus. Put your considerable muscle behind land for peace - that is what we are looking for, land for peace.Iraq: Lebanon is no longer number one on Syria's agenda; Iraq is. The biggest danger for Syria is to have a weak confessional federation, like Lebanon, on our eastern border. This is our biggest concern and looming danger. Angry confessionalism and religious and ethnic violence have a way of spreading.

Question: Congressman Stephen J. Solarz explained that when he visited Syria and spoke to Foreign Minister Mu`alem, he asked the FM what Syria needed in order to give up riparian rights to the Sea of Galilee should Israel concede the northern strip of land along the lake to Syria? Mu`alem had told Solarz that Syria wanted:

1) more water from Turkey.
2) A water desalinization plant on the coast.
3) Syrian farmers on the Golan to be able to use water from some of the streams that feed Lake Tiberius. 

Solarz asked Dr. Taki if these demands were still on Syria's list.

Answer: Taqi smiled and said that whatever Mu'alem had told the congressman was undoubtedly true as Mu`alem is the source.

Then in a more serious vein, Taki insisted that the larger principle of getting all the land of the 1967 border was a separate question from the technical issues of what guarantees would be needed to achieve it. He insisted that most of the technical issues had been worked out and that remaining problems could be dealt with. He insisted that the principle of returning to the 1967 border was the important point in it all.During the last 10 minutes of the meeting, Sami Moubayed and Samir Saifan spoke.

Dr. Moubayed insisted that Syria is ready to be helpful and part of the solution to regional problems. He went through a number of examples of how and when Syria had used its influence and authority in the region to help solve problems in the recent past. He said that Washington needs to recognize this assistance and work with Syria. Syria is not looking for praise, he insisted. All Syria wants from the US is for it to halt its campaign to vilify and demonize Syria. "The US should not expect cooperation from Syria so long as it abuses Syria and seeks to demonize it," he explained.

Mr. Saifan explained that Syria wants peace in the region and wants to move ahead with its plans for a better and richer future. Negotiations and peace will benefit all sides. He thanked the leaders of "The Search for Common Ground," who had organized their trip to Washington and who had gotten them meetings with congressmen and leaders in Washington. He explained that the Syrian team had not expected such a warm welcome and such interest. They thanked Martin Indik, the head of the Saban Center, for hosting the Brookings talk.

The Syrian press has been depicting this meeting as if Jerusalem had been liberated. I guess that was a mirage. Damascus is still high on the liberation of Paris.

I am off to hear the three at Brookings. I will see what I can report later. Best, Joshua

U.S. to meet three Syrians, but no warming in ties
July 22, 2008
Washington Post

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The State Department said on Tuesday a U.S. diplomat will meet three Syrians on a private visit to Washington but made clear this did not signal warmer ties or greater U.S. interest in Israeli-Syrian peace talks.

"We have an interest in reaching out to the Syrian people. However, we are going to continue to limit diplomatic engagement unless the Syrian government takes concrete actions to end its destabilizing tactics," State Department spokesman Gonzalo Gallegos told reporters.

The United States accuses Syria of sponsoring terrorism, permitting foreign fighters to cross into Iraq, allowing arms to flow into Lebanon, hosting Palestinian militant groups and violating human rights.

Gallegos said a meeting would be arranged between a U.S. diplomat and the three Syrians, whose U.S. visit is sponsored by the Search for Common Ground nongovernmental group that promotes conflict resolution.

The spokesman declined to provide a date or time for the meeting or to say which U.S. diplomat would attend.

On Monday, the State Department had said U.S. Assistant Secretary of State David Welch, the top U.S. diplomat for the Middle East, was willing to meet the group.

However, a U.S. official who asked not to be named said Welch may not have returned from a Middle East trip in time to attend the meeting, which he said was tentatively set for Friday, and that someone else would likely meet the three.

Gallegos made clear that a meeting should not be seen as a token of renewed U.S. interest in Israeli-Syrian peace talks that are being sponsored by Turkey, saying that the U.S. focus was on "the Israeli-Palestinian track."

Syrian foreign ministry adviser Riad Daoudi, who has led the Syrian delegation in Turkish-sponsored indirect talks with Israel, is a member of Search for Common Ground's U.S.-Syria Working Group and was expected to visit Washington this week.

However, people familiar with the matter said he stayed behind in Damascus for consultations with Turkish officials.

The three Syrians who came to Washington were identified as Ahmad Samir al-Taqi, Samir Seifan and Sami Moubayed.

A Syrian embassy spokesman said Syria welcomed the visit but that the three did not represent the Syrian government, had no official positions and were visiting as private citizens.

Obama Shifts the Foreign Policy Debate

Sen. Barack Obama, on his first and likely only overseas trip as the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, has remade the campaign's foreign policy playing field, neatly sidestepping Republican charges that he has been naive and wrong on Iraq and moving to a broader, post-Iraq focus on Afg…

(By Karen DeYoung and Jonathan Weisman, The Washington Post)

 

Joyce Karam (Alhayat) was told that the Syrian delegation asked to meet with AIPAC.

Daoudi says that he needs to return to Ankara to pick up negotiations with Israel. 

I wrote earlier that it seemed that Syria was being snubbed, but I am told this is wrong. I have erased it.

Key Syria Official Cancels Trip To US

WASHINGTON (AFP)–A key official in a Syrian delegation scheduled to attend a private forum and possibly meet with U.S. officials in rare talks this week has canceled his trip, officials said Tuesday.

Riad Daoudi, Syrian lead negotiator with Israeli officials in Turkey and legal adviser to the Syrian foreign ministry, had been asked at the last minute to remain in Damascus for talks with a visiting Turkish delegation, sources said.

"Based on our information, Mr. Daoudi did not make the trip to Washington," Syrian embassy spokesman Ahmed Salkini told AFP. He didn't provide details.

But Ahmad Samir al-Taki, a consultant to the Syrian prime minister and director of the Orient Center for International Studies in Damascus, together with two others will attend the forum "Engaging Syria: new negotiations, old challenges" at Washington-based Brookings Institution on Wednesday.

Their visit is sponsored by Search for Common Ground, an international non- governmental organization, headquartered in Washington and Brussels, which had sought a meeting for them with the State Department.

State Department spokesman Gonzalo Gallegos had said on Monday that Assistant Secretary of State David Welch, the pointman for Middle East affairs, was prepared to meet with them.

Syria is on a U.S. blacklist of state sponsors of terrorism.

But Gallegos stressed that they weren't official talks, as the Syrian team was here in "private capacity."

Still, the proposed meeting comes in the wake of a tactical shift in President George W. Bush administration's Middle East dealings following the participation of the State Department's No. 3 official, William Burns, in talks in Geneva last week over Iran's nuclear program.

Obama’s High-Powered Ride to the Airport
By Jeff Zeleny

AMMAN, Jordan — The king drove the senator to the airport.
After dinner at His Majesty’s palace tonight, known here as Beit Al Urdan, Senator Barack Obama was headed to catch a plane to Israel. So King Abdullah got behind the wheel of his dark-gray Mercedes Benz 600 Series, Mr. Obama hopped in the passenger’s seat and they headed through the streets to Jordan/Queen Alia International Airport.
The motorcade — unlike the United States, which contained more Mercedes than mini-vans — created a bit of a stir when it arrived on the dark tarmac. Reporters and photographers stood watch as King Abdullah stepped out of his door first, followed by Mr. Obama.
The two stood at the steps of the plane, talking for several moments before saying their farewells.

King Abdullah, who had been in Aspen, Colo., made a special trip back to Amman to see Mr. Obama tonight. He was waiting at the door of his home when the senator arrived. (Queen Ranie was said to be on hand, but was not seen by reporters.)
“Thank you so much,” Mr. Obama said as the king pumped his hand. The two had briefly met once on Capitol Hill, but had never shared a one-one-one meeting.
“Let’s make a photo opportunity,” Mr. Abdullah said, re-enacting their handshakes and smiling broadly for the cameras.
And so they did, repeating the scene one more time a few hours later in the shadow of the newly-painted Obama campaign plane.

Obama: Israeli Strike Against Syria Last Year "Appropriate"
22 Jul 2008 03:32 pm

More from an exclusive preview of Katie Couric's interview with Barack Obama:

Couric: If they reject negotiating– if they reject negotiations, how likely do you think a preemptive military strike by Israel against Iran may be?

Obama: I– I will not hypothesize on that. I think– Israel has a right to defend itself. But I will not speculate on– the– the difficult judgment that they would have to make– in a whole host of possible scenarios.

Couric: This is not a speculative question then. Was it appropriate, in your view, for Israel to take out that suspected Syrian nuclear site last year?

Obama: Yes. I think that there was sufficient evidence that they were developing– a site using a nuclear– or using a– a blueprint that was similar to the North Korean model. There was some concern as to what the rationale for that site would be. And, again, ultimately, I think these are decisions that the Israelis have to make. But– you know, the Israelis live in a very tough neighborhood where– a lot of folks– publicly– proclaim Israel as an enemy and then act on those proclamations. And– I think that– you know, it– it's important for– for me not to– you know, engage in speculation on what steps they need to take. What I can do is to provide leadership– so that the United States government hopefully doesn't get us into a position where– those decisions are so difficult. That's why applying tough diplomacy, direct diplomacy, and tough sanctions– where necessary is so important.

And, as Obama lands in Tel Aviv, he admits to Couric that his AIPAC pronouncement about an "undivided" Jerusalem was "poorly phrased" but insists that he did not change his policy.

Gulfsands, Emerald Energy Start Pumping Oil in Syria (Update1)
2008-07-22 (New York)
by Maher Chmaytelli

July 22 (Bloomberg) — Gulfsands Petroleum Plc and Emerald Energy Plc, two British explorers, started pumping oil yesterday at their Syrian joint venture, which may provide the biggest boost to the Arab nation's output in 20 years.

 “The production of oil commenced at the Khurbet East Early Production Facility in Block 26'' in north-east Syria, according to a statement today from Gulfsands, operator of the concession. 

Gulfsands aims to pump 40,000 barrels a day in 18 months, increasing Syria's production by 10 percent, company spokesman Kenneth Judge said yesterday. The venture's output, which will start at 10,000 barrels a day, may boost the country's production the most since the late 1980s, Executive Director Mahdi Sajjad said in yesterday's Daily Telegraph. Gulfsands didn't estimate initial output from the first well, KHE-4, in today's statement.

Syria is stepping up exploration to check a decline in crude output, which has dropped to 360,000 barrels a day from a peak of 600,000 barrels a day in 1996, according to the government. Its reserves of 3.2 billion barrels are expected to last 10 years, according to the U.S. Energy Department. The two London-based explorers, which each hold a 50 percentstake in the venture, must share any oil produced with the Syrian government, Emerald said today in a separate statement, citing the terms of the concession agreement.

Shares Gain

lf sands announced last year the Khurbet East find in Block 26, Syria's largest exploration plot with an area of 8,250 square kilometers (3,185 square  iles). The discovery was brought on stream five months ahead of schedule, boosting the shares of Gulfsands and Emerald yesterday by as much as 6.7 percent and 17 percent respectively. 

“With production from Khurbet East having started well ahead of schedule, which will ramp up as we tie in additional wells, we look forward to further developing the other opportunities in Block 26 in what is a highly prospective and proven hydrocarbon system in Syria,'' Gulfsands Chairman Andrew
West said in the statement today.

The real criticism to be made of Washington is not that it has used too little military force or that it has drawn too few lines in the sand. On the contrary, Washington should never have led Jumblatt and Hariri down the garden path to believe that they could rely on US troops to defeat Hizbullah and Lebanon's other opposition parties.  The US should have let Hariri, Jumblatt, and Siniora know early on that it could not defeat Hizbullah or overturn the Syrian regime on their behalf. Pumping them up in the false belief that the US would ride in with the cavalry was irresponsible and stupid. The March 14th forces were going to have to compromise sooner or later. Washington should not have been so naive as to think that brow beating, chest thumping, and moralizing by President Bush would magically make the most powerful forces in Lebanon cower in fear and disarm - especially not a militia like Hizbullah, which drove Israel out of Lebanon after 20 years of sacrifice and struggle and which stood up to Israel's full power in 2006 for over a month.

If anything, Solomon should have praised Hizbullah for its patience and sober restraint - normally an Israeli characteristic - for waiting 16 long months before pulling the plug on the March 14 forces. Instead, Solomon writes that "for nearly 16 months, Mr. Siniora's supporters refused to cave into demands by Hezbollah." Such praise only shows how far Washington has strayed from realism. As Bashar al-Asad said after the Doha agreement was signed, "The March 14 coalition could have signed the same agreement a year ago" and well they could have, without loss of life or the terrible economic price of letting the economy stagnate for 12 extra months. Instead, Siniora, Hariri, Geagea, Jumblatt and their American backers clung to a losing hand and refused to recognize the reality that was so clear once Israel had failed in 2006 to put a real dent into Hizbullah's power and supremacy in Lebanon. Hariri kept on repeating that Hizbullah and Lebanon's Christians led by Aoun intended to carry out a coup, but of course they did not. Quite the opposite, they wanted a compromise.

The reason they were so patient with the obstinate March 14 movement and the US was precisely because they did not want a coup. They did not want to use force to assert themselves. That is why they waited on Hariri and allies for so long. They waited until the Lebanese public were so fed up with political paralysis that they welcomed Hizbullah's move and the Doha agreement. They waited until Jumblatt made his fateful mistake and convinced Siniora to move against Hizbullah's security network, then in less than 12 hours Hizbullah and the Lebanese opposition pulled the plug on the March 14th government. They did not "take power" or carry out a "coup;" instead, they allowed Siniora to form a new government, giving the opposition the blocking third that they had insisted on for the better part of a year.

I am surprised that hard bitten Wall Street types who usually praise politicians and businessmen for knowing when to compromise are now siding with Jeronimo, or in Lebanon's case, Jumblatt. Does anyone really think that the US should have sent troops to Lebanon to keep Jumblatt from having to compromise with Nasrallah and Aoun?

(by the way - if anyone wants to know which Syrians are in town to meet with the State department, they are Daoudi, the lead negotiator with the Israelis in Ankara, Samir Taqi, the head of Syria's leading think tank, and Sami Moubayed, who needs no introduction to SC readers.)

Here is the WSJ article:

Mideast's Balance of Power Shifts Away From U.S.: Regional Players Bypass Washington In Brokering Deals
Wall Street Journal

A handful of Middle East nations and groups are pursuing talks that are dramatically shifting the region's balance of power in ways that could undercut U.S. interests.

The various diplomatic efforts come as the Bush administration moderates its policy of isolating the governments of Iran, Syria and their regional allies. The State Department's point man on the Middle East is scheduled to meet this week with a delegation of Syrian academics and lawyers that includes the top legal adviser to the Syrian government team involved in indirect talks with Israel, according to Syrian officials.

And over the weekend, the State Department's third-ranking official met with European diplomats and Iranian officials as part of talks to restart negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program.

The weekend contact — the highest-level exchange between the two sides in years — ended inconclusively Saturday. Tehran refused to commit to halting its uranium-enrichment program in exchange for a set of economic incentives it was offered. European Union foreign-policy chief Javier Solana said negotiators gave Tehran another two weeks to respond more concretely.

Still, the presence in Geneva of William Burns, the U.S. under-secretary of state for political affairs, marked a significant course change in Washington's dealings with Iran.

It comes as regional players — both friends and foes of Washington — begin to work together to solve their own problems and those of their neighbors. The talks have supplanted what was once a key role for Washington: regional power broker.

As President George W. Bush's term in office approaches its end, his administration's diplomatic heft has predictably diminished. Washington's missteps in Iraq and Afghanistan have also sapped the region's confidence in the administration's vision. "In many ways, the countries in the region are looking past the Bush administration and seeking their own answers to the region's problems" said Imad Moustapha, Damascus's ambassador to the U.S., in an interview.

A collection of peacemakers, some unlikely, has stepped into the breach. In May, Qatar successfully pushed a peace deal in Lebanon that saw Iranian-backed Hezbollah gain extensive new political powers at the expense of Beirut's Western-backed government. Last month, Egypt brokered a military truce between Israel and the Palestinian faction Hamas, an Iranian ally that last year violently overran the Gaza Strip.

Turkey is mediating indirect peace talks between Israel and Syria. Even impoverished Yemen is getting in on the act, pushing for reconciliation between Hamas and rival faction Fatah.

Through the negotiations, say diplomats and analysts, Israel and Arab governments are positioning themselves for a shift in American foreign policy, no matter who wins November elections.

Hammering that home, Sen. Barak Obama, the Democratic presidential nominee, is touring the Middle East this week. He has advocated stepped-up engagement with Iran and Syria.

"The U.S. administration is a lame duck, and regional players are working to serve their own interests," says Diaa Rashwan, a Cairo-based political analyst.

The State Department has denied that U.S. influence in the region is waning and said it welcomes the region's recent diplomatic efforts.

Israel, in particular, has seized the initiative from Washington. In recent weeks, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has moved to cut deals aimed at easing every national-security threat along Israel's borders, though Mr. Olmert may be too politically weak at home to see any of the deals through.

But his efforts come after Israel's once-unquestionable regional military superiority has been severely tested. In 2006, Hezbollah fighters bogged down a larger and more advanced Israeli army during a month-long battle in Lebanon. And Israeli military incursions into the Hamas-held Gaza Strip failed to dislodge rocket-firing militants.

In May, Israel said it was indirectly negotiating a peace deal with Syria, which, along with Iran, is a key supporter of both Hezbollah and Hamas. Last month, Israel agreed to a cease-fire with Hamas.

At the same time, Israel has sent much stronger signals than the U.S. about possible military intervention against Tehran. Last month, U.S. officials said Israel had conducted military exercises that appeared to be training for a possible attack against Iran.

U.S. officials are preparing a package of economic sanctions they hope they can push through the United Nations if Tehran fails to take up new talks on halting its nuclear program.

Perhaps no Middle East country has been the beneficiary of the region's diplomatic moves more than Syria. In March, U.S. allies Saudi Arabia and Egypt snubbed the country by refusing to send high-level representation to an Arab League summit in Damascus. The U.S. Treasury in February initiated a string of unilateral sanctions against some of Syrian President Bashar Assad's closest political and business allies. The U.S. and France, meanwhile, were closely working to limit Syria's political influence inside Lebanon.

Today, Syria has largely emerged from its diplomatic isolation. Mr. Assad was welcomed in Paris this month by President Nicolas Sarkozy. The two leaders talked about enhancing economic and strategic ties.

Damascus and Jerusalem are set to enter a second-round of Turkey-brokered talks to resolve their dispute over the Golan Heights this month. And many world leaders praised Syria's role in promoting a political pact for Lebanon in May.

Amid that backdrop, the State Department's point man on the Middle East, Assistant Secretary of State David Welch, is set to meet top Syrian academics and attorneys this week, according to Syrian officials. Mr. Welch's planned session is raising hopes Washington may more aggressively support the Damascus-Jerusalem peace track. The State Department didn't comment on the meetings.

Mr. Moustapha, Syria's ambassador, said the Bush administration's willingness to meet the Syrian delegation is a step in the right direction.

If Syria has gained the most from Washington's diplomatic absence, the West-backed government of Lebanese President Fuad Siniora appears to have lost out more than others.

In 2006, Israel launched a war in Lebanon, largely in response to the capture by Hezbollah of two Israeli army reservists in a cross-border raid.

The fighting ended inconclusively after 34 days, but Hezbollah's reputation for resistance against Israel soared. The Shiite political group — designated a terrorist organization by the U.S. — led a boycott of Mr. Siniora's coalition government.

For nearly 16 months, Mr. Siniora's supporters refused to cave into demands by Hezbollah for major concessions in a new government. When Mr. Siniora tried to crack down on the group in May the group took to the streets.

Qatar's emir stepped in. He pushed both sides to accept a deal that reinstalled Mr. Siniora as prime minister but also gave the Hezbollah-led opposition veto power.

"Where was America when Hezbollah took over in May?" complained Walid Jumblatt, the leader of the Lebanese Druze sect and an ally of the U.S.

Write to Jay Solomon at jay.solomon@wsj.com,

The following profile of Syria's first lady, Asma al-Akhras, will become increasingly common. Asma has kept a low international profile until now - in part because Syrian officials have not been swanning around the West — but the Paris tour is a coming out party of sorts. It has  generated great interest and a number of profiles of Syria's beautiful first lady will come out soon. 

Syria's first lady is the more glamorous, modern face of the nation,
writes Jason Koutsoukis.

[Power couple … the Syrian President, Bashar al-Assad and his wife, Asma, in Paris. Photo: AP]

French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner confirms that Saudi Arabia's foreign minister, Prince Saud Al-Faisal, visited France before President Assad’s visit in order to convince the French to not seek friendly relations with Syria. Kouchner also said that he hopes the Saudis (who are smart) will understand that there is no other way .. because everyone is working for peace. Finally, he said that the Americans and Israelis approved and supported Sarkozy’s initiatives … including his work with President Assad.

كوشنير يؤكّد لـ»السفير« لقاء الفيصل وساركوزي:
السعوديون ليسوا متحمسين لتقارب دمشق وباريس

محمد بلوط
باريس :
السعوديون ليسوا متحمسين للتقارب الفرنسي السوري. الخلاصة تفرض نفسها في ما قاله وزير الخارجية الفرنسية برنار كوشنير لـ»السفير«، وهو يغادر ظهر امس، منبر مؤتمر صحافي عقده في الكي دورسيه.
انتخب الوزير الفرنسي من سؤال »السفير« عن حقيقة موقف الرياض من تقارب باريس ودمشق، عبارة »قلة الحماس«، مفضلا إياها على تعبير »معارضة الرياض« للقاء الرئيس الفرنسي نيكولا ساركوزي بالرئيس السوري بشار الأسد في قصر الإليزيه الأسبوع الماضي.
»هل أظهر السعوديون معارضتهم او قلة حماسهم للتقارب الفرنسي السوري؟«، يجيب كوشنير المقاطع »أفضل قلة الحماس«.
و»هل أتى وزير الخارجية السعودية سعود الفيصل وتحدث بذلك مع الرئيس ساركوزي؟«، يجيب كوشنير »نعم بالتأكيد«.
وكانت »السفير« قد نشرت الاثنين الماضي، خبر المساعي السعودية للجم الاندفاع الفرنسي تجاه دمشق، في لقاء عقده الأمير سعود الفيصل مع الرئيس ساركوزي، قبل وصول الرئيس الأسد إلى العاصمة الفرنسية. ومن غير المستبعد ان يقتطع ساركوزي والملك السعودي عبد الله، بعض الوقت من عطلتيهما الصيفية في المغرب، للاجتماع بهدف متابعة البحث في الموقف السعودي.
وبات واضحا ان الاعتراض السعودي على تطوير باريس لعلاقاتها مع دمشق، في الوقت الحاضر على الأقل، حجته الراجحة في خطر البرنامج النووي الإيراني، اذ لم يعد تحالف سوريا مع ايران يشكل حاجزا لا يمكن للرئيس ساركوزي اجتيازه، في طريقه إلى دمشق. كما لم يشكل عقبة كبيرة امام القائمين على الاليزيه لفتح أبوابه الأسبوع الماضي امام الأسد.
ويحيل كوشنير »اسباب الاعتراض السعودي حول التقارب مع سوريا«، لاختلاف في »التعبير، في الأنظمة، والبلدان، والموارد، والتحالفات التي تعقدها سوريا، او السعودية وهي قطب مهم في العالم العربي، وهذا طبيعي، ولا يصدم. هذه حال الدنيا ولا جديد فيها«. ويضيف »لم يظهر الاختلاف فقط حول قدوم الرئيس الأسد إلى باريس، بل قبل ذلك.. والجميع يبدل رأيه، ولان السعوديين أذكياء، اعتقد أنهم يفهمون، ولكننا لا نطلب منهم تغيير موقفهم.. هناك مساران سياسيان لا بد لهما من لقاء، لأننا جميعا نريد السلام«.
والشراكة الفرنسية ـ السعودية الإستراتيجية، تملي تنسيقا مستديما بين الرياض وباريس، لكن وصف ساركوزي في الإليزيه للعلاقات السورية الفرنسية المستجدة، بانها بنيوية واستراتيجية، يندرج لدى الوزير الفرنسي في تحولات سياسية أوسع في فرنسا والولايات المتحدة إزاء سوريا وإيران.

ويسأل كوشنير عما اذا كان السعوديون على اطلاع أم لا على ما يجري على الخط السوري الفرنسي. ويقول »من البديهي أننا أعلمناهم بما يحدث.. لكن البعض قد يقدر أننا لم نفعل ذلك بشكل كاف.. لا أعرف! صحيح ان السعودية لم تكن نصيرة للقائنا مع الأسد، إنها علاقات معقدة وحساسة وأفهم اختلاف المواقف داخل العالم العربي، لكن أعتقد أن الجميع قد فهم موقفنا وهو يجنح نحو السلام والتهدئة«.
ويتابع الوزير الفرنسي »بوسع السعوديين الا يقبلوا طريقتنا في البدء، أو لا يوافقوا عليها كليا في مرحلة تالية.. ولكن هذا ليس انطباعي.. ان ما يجري جزء من إعادة التشكيل، ليس الجغرافي فقط، ولكن السياسي والإستراتيجي أيضا.. إنها دبلوماسية الحركة والحوار«.
واختلاف التقدير بين السعودية وفرنسا، لا يفقد تقارب باريس ـ دمشق شيئا من زخمه، ولن يغير الاعتراض السعودي شيئا كبيرا في المدى القريب، لأنه يجري في ظل تفاهم أميركي فرنسي، وتشجيع إسرائيلي. ويقول كوشنير »نلنا تهنئة إسرائيلية على دعوة الأسد إلى قمة الاتحاد من أجل المتوسط.. وقد التقينا بالرئيس جورج بوش وكوندليسا رايس في حزيران هنا في باريس، وعقدنا اجتماعا لأربع ساعات وشرحنا لهم موضوع اللقاء.. وبدأوا بالتفكير بطريقة عملية، انطلاقا من المعطيات الجديدة.. وقد هنأنا الأميركيون على القمة وعلى اللقاء بالأسد لأنه لا يمكن الفصل بين الحدثين«.
ويتقدم التقارب السوري الفرنسي بسرعة أكبر مما يعتقده كثيرون، من دون ان تعيقه شروط مسبقة. ولأن باريس ترى انها حققت الأهم في إعلان الأسد من الإليزيه قرب إقامة سفارة سورية في بيروت، فقد اصبح نافلا بنظرها، ان يسبق موعد اقامتها، زيارة الرئيس ساركوزي إلى دمشق، مطلع أيلول المقبل، طالما ان مبدأ إقامتها قد أصبح واقعا.

'Our resistance is education': Students serve as crucial link between Golan Heights, Syria 
By Meris Moore Lutz
Special to The Daily Star
Saturday, July 19, 2008

DAMASCUS-On a hot afternoon in Damascus in late June, 26-year-old Bashar Fakhradeen ticks of his list of things to do, see, and eat before crossing the border back to his village in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights for the last time. "I need to get an oil painting of old Damascus, and some mosaic woodwork," he says, sitting in one of the old city's renovated palaces-turned cafes. Giant plasma screens hang from the ancient stone walls, flashing an endless stream of music videos from the Arab world's top pop divas, as tittering groups of teenagers flirt over beer and nargileh.

"This is my farewell to Damascus, so I've just been walking around trying to take it all in," he adds, shrugging helplessly.

Until recently, Fakhradeen was one of approximately 300 university students from the Golan Heights given special permission to cross into Syria to pursue their higher education. But this spring, he graduated with a degree in Arabic literature from the University of Damascus, and so his last days in Syria will be spent saying goodbye to friends and family he may never see again.

"I have been here for eight years - my entire youth was spent here," he says. "I definitely feel a stronger sense of belonging to Syria than when I first came."

Since 1978, the students' unique status has allowed them to act as intermediaries between the Golan Heights and Syria, maintaining the bonds of culture, family and language that they hope will one day lead to reunification. 

The Syrian government, for its part, attempts to attract students from the occupied territory by giving them special privilege at Syrian universities, such as exemption from entrance exams to the most competitive departments, like medicine, and a small stipend of about $20 a month.

Last December, the Syrian government announced its decision to grant citizenship to the students, and began distributing new identity cards, but not passports. However, the Israelis have been confiscating the cards at the border as the students cross back into the Golan for their allotted two-month summer vacation, according to Fakhradeen and other students interviewed for this article.

The Jerusalem Post reported on July 5 that the Syrian government has filed an official complaint with the United Nations claiming Israel is 'abusing' the mostly Druze inhabitants of the Golan by taking their ID cards, dumping nuclear waste in the area, and confiscating land.

The Post went on to report that representatives from a special UN committee for human rights abuses said the Israeli government denied them permission to visit the Golan in order to verify the accusation.

"Syria gives us one card and Israel takes it away," Fakhradeen says, showing off his new identity card, nearly identical to his old one except for a 'citizen number' printed at the bottom. …..

The talk of the town

By Zvi Bar'el and Barak Ravid

The pictures that came in from the French capital depicted him as trying to court Syrian President Bashar Assad, with the latter turning his back on him time after time.

Olmert's advisers were angry. "No such thing," they said and offered the following version: "Time after time, the French, the UN secretary general and others came to us," they said. "All of them asked, 'do you want us to introduce you to each other?' But Olmert gave all of them the same reply and said, 'drop it. I don't want to embarrass anybody.'"

Even if Olmert wasn't trying to "court" Assad, and the pictures were misleading, Syria's behavior at the conference was yet another instance in which Israel was exploited for Assad's purposes. To the extended Israeli hand, the Syrians responded with a hasty retreat from any Israeli who came within 10 meters of them in the conference hall. The Syrians received international legitimization, and Israel again received not even a crumb.

But even if the Syrians rejoiced in the streets of Paris at Israel's expense, they may still have understood it's a lot nicer in Europe than in Tehran. If Assad had a swell time in Paris, that doesn't present a problem for Olmert. On the contrary, let him sense the advantages. Things must also be examined with an eye toward the bigger picture: Israel's freedom to engage in military action in the region in the coming months, especially in the light of increasing talk of a possible Israeli attack on Iran. A Syrian president whose wife can go shopping again in Saint Michel and Saint Germain is not going to be in any rush to join an Iranian military adventure.

Samir Kuntar will visit Syria (Jerusalem Post) and meet with Syrian President Bashar Assad in coming weeks, Qatari newspaper Al-Watan reported Saturday. Kuntar was expected to thank Assad for Syrian's role in defending Lebanon.

Growing Salafist movement in North poses challenge to the project of state building
By Mona Alami of Inter Press Service
Saturday, July 19, 2008

… "Most Salafists are allied to the Saudis and, thus, aligned with American Middle East policy. They maintain excellent relations with the government and the Hariri family," says Bakri. The Hariris are a powerful Lebanese political clan with strong ties to Saudi Arabia. Saad Hariri, son of slain Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, heads the majority parliamentary coalition in Lebanon.

… Different sources interviewed by IPS report that most Salafists seem to follow the pro-government bloc, while other radical Sunni factions, such as Tawhid, are sponsored by either Syria or Iran, and hence, support the opposition.

According to a source, who chose to remain anonymous due to the topic's sensitivity, many Salafist preachers are on the payroll of Arab embassies located in Lebanon. Bakri says this support can be partly explained by Sunnis' growing fear of Lebanese Shiites, represented by Hizbullah….

Thaw in relations with Syria only a 'partial' step - analysts
Hariri tribunal could pose stumbling block in talks
By Dalila Mahdawi

… Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut told The Daily Star Friday that the recent thaw between the two states was only a "partial" step toward reconciliation, "part of the general reorientation of Syrian policy" and "indicated a new period in Lebanese-Syrian relations."… Salem said, "the rapprochement between Syria and France suggests that there might be some progress on the issue of the tribunal that we don't know about."..

Elias Hanna, a retired army general and senior lecturer of Political Science at the Notre-Dame University in Lebanon, was optimistic that "regardless of all the complexities faced, I don't think the talks will break down. Syria lost Lebanon, a major strategic asset in 2005, and regaining it now would be of huge value" to Damascus. …

"Brothers and sisters, from this position, with this crowd of martyrs throughout 30 years, we evoke all the sacrifices of the Lebanese, Palestinian, and Arab Resistance men – Islamists, nationalists, Arabists, and pan-Arab irrespective of any ideological trend they are affiliated with. We are proud of and appreciate all the resistance factions and parties and all the resistance men and martyrs, who joined the arenas of resistance, jihad, and struggle before us. We benefit from their experience, seek inspiration from their sacrifices, and recognize their status in the past, present, and future of the Resistance. In this context too, through what I have said, I would like to stress that the genuine and well-established identity of our region and nation is the identity of resistance, the will of resistance, the culture of resistance, and the rejection of humiliation and occupation, regardless of occupiers, dictators, and tyrants.

Based on this, throughout decades, you can see that the flag did not fall, the Resistance flag does not fall, but it moves from the hand of one group to another, from one faction to another, from one party to another, and from one heading to another."

While the occasion was devoted primarily to the celebration of the prisoners' return, Nasrallah took the opportunity to address some issues that made this a potentially historic speech. (1) He brought up the issue of the so-called "national defense" strategy, and insisted that it be brought to the table, dismissing the idea that Hizbullah is afraid of tackling such a sensitive subject. (2) He declared that the Hizb is prepared to discuss all issues relating to national interests and national unity. This should be read as referring not only to the issue of the resistance's weapons, but to the future of political reform in the country, which will be the necessary quid pro quo for Hizbullah's "normalization". In other words, we are witnessing the transformation of Hizbullah into one of the most powerful forces for political reform in Lebanon (and potentially beyond) since independence. Nasrallah is reinventing the vocabularies of both resistance and nationalism, with potentially far-reaching consequences. 

There's an old joke about "accepted wisdom" in the field of economics. Two Nobel Prize winning economists are walking down the street when one of them spots a hundred dollar bill lying in the gutter. He says to his friend: "Is that a hundred dollar bill lying in the gutter?" His friend scoffs as they walk by it, and he says dismissively: "Of course not. If it were, someone would have picked it up already."

Similarly, many will be inclined to dismiss Nasrallah's rhetoric as empty talk. The smart money, in my view, is to take the man at his word, which, as he has already demonstrated on several occasions, is to be trusted. Beyond Nasrallah's personal guarantees, however, there is unescapable logic of demography, population pressures, and economic disparities which can only be ignored for so long before they become a liability for the Shi`a community's own leadership, the mighty Hizbullah not excluded. The end game will have to be political reform, if Lebanon is to survive.

Here is the relevant excerpt from his speech, translated to English for non-Arabic readers (by NOW Lebanon):

"I declare anew – in view of what I raised for discussion – that all our concern is to liberate the rest of our land. We in Hezbollah are open to every discussion on a strategy to liberate the Shebaa Farms, the Kfar Shouba hills, and the part of Al-Ghajar that is still under occupation. Our concern, brothers and sisters, all our concern is to defend our country, land, waters, the sovereignty of our country, and our people and their dignity and security. We in Hezbollah are open to every discussion on a strategy for national defense. We insist on this discussion.

Some people imagine we do not like this discussion or we are evading it. No, now we insist on it. We do not want it to be postponed. How does the saying go: "Let us burst this boil." Let us see this defense strategy which we have been talking about for some years. Let us get somewhere. That is because the threats and dangers to Lebanon have not ended.

We go to this dialogue and discussion in a positive and serious spirit. Our aim is to protect our country. We insist on this discussion, and we insist that everyone participates in protecting this country, and that the State bears the primary responsibility for protecting and defending this country. And thus we end the story of who is monopolizing defense and who is monopolizing resistance, as though it is a feast over which the people are competing. Usually people escape from the fighting, even the believers. Almighty God says: "Fighting is ordained for you, though you dislike it."

It is human nature to prefer to turn to politics, economic activity, cultural activity, and commercial activity, but people do not want to hear about fighting, staying up all night, captivity, wounds, sacrifices, hunger, staying in the valleys and plains. What is this thing which we are monopolizing and for which we are envied? Are we envied because our youth are in prisons, and that we are getting them back? Or are we envied because hundreds of our young have lost the flower of their youth to defend this homeland, and we get back their dead bodies?

No, I say to you today as we celebrate the freedom of the prisoners: We will ask everyone to contribute to protecting and defending this country, and whoever abandons this duty is the traitor. That is a national responsibility which all of us should seek to fulfill. At the same time, and within the context of the national unity government, I would like to affirm that we are ready to cooperate in handling all – and please underline the word "all" twice – files without exception or reservations in a way that will serve the national interest and enhance national unity and Lebanon's strength and impregnability, and enable Lebanon to overcome its crises."

The entire speech is available from YouTube. The excerpt begins at 37:00

I just returned from a trip to Europe and Syria with a short stay in Lebanon as well. Here are my observations

1. The Syrian regime never felt any significant pressure from being so called isolated. As long as the foundations of the regime remain stable and strong, they do not care one bit whether tourists come or stay home, investments flow in or out, and so on and so forth.

2. The state which I felt a mere three years ago was going towards a failed situation has recovered well. Infrastructure is being built and more importantly being maintained and repaired. It is by no means similar to what a first world country does, but it is a remarkable improvement.

3. The public is happy with stability and disgruntled with nepotism and corruption. If the last two items are tackled the populace will rally behind the regime even more

4. The ability to absorb and manage the near 2 million refugees from Iraq is a feat to be absolutely commended. Some are doing well having brought money and invested in local business, others are quite poor and destitute but still not hungry and all are sheltered.

5. The price of commodities has people unhappy but I saw much fewer begging than before and certainly a lot less than what I saw in Prague.

6. The alliance with Iran is unbreakable, the two countries have mutual investment and military and economic ties that will be near impossible to break short of a real threat of regime change.

7. The military is transformed into a more efficient force, although still in conventional terms no match for Israel, training is being conducted day and night. I happen to have stayed near an army shooting range and I could hear the firing both days and nights.

8. The KSA invested 1.5 billion dollars and with the Jordanian secret service trained the Hariri militia into a state that was completely destroyed in less than four hours by HA with the full awareness and even help from Syria as they poured 600 highly loyal and very well trained Druze into the Shouf mountains to put Walik Bek in his place while at the same time helping fully with the Alawite community near Tripoli.

9. In Paris, Assad got all he wanted, cooperation, recognition, while not committing to anything substantial and at the same time snubbing Olmert and more importantly Mubarak.

10. The Lebanese may opt for partition of the country if encouraged and helped by France and the US to avoid having the state de Jure that is non present, be controlled by the non-state but active HA. This will be a disaster for the country, especially since the Foreign policy of France is being conducted by impulsive Sarko le premier.

11. The entire south and the Dahyia has been fully rebuilt with Iranian help. The transformation is absolutely remarkable.

12. In Iraq, the US have stabilized the situation somewhat by doing essentially what Saddam did all along. Fear, co-opt some, bribe some, pay some, and divide some. Outside of the Green zone, there is really no true government but warlords, gangs, bandits, factions, and the like. Iran has essentially played a major role in stabilizing Iraq by having its hand in with every faction except the hard line Sunnis. Here Syria has been able to help due to the ties between the two Baath party factions.

13. Europe is tired of competing, and the population is fully frazzled at having to work harder, longer, and in a more frantic way than ever before. The elite have a vision of Europe equal to that of the US in all measures and the population see an incompetent parasitic bureaucracy that is out of touch with reality.

14. Returning to the US, I see that the public here is so oblivious to what the rest of the world is doing that it is truly amazing. In terms of energy efficiency every toilet has a water sparing system and every lighting is motion activated to reduce energy costs in every place I went to even in Syria and here we are still refusing to see the train coming down the track full speed ahead at us. The deer in the headlight is an apt description.

15. Finally the consensus in the ME from the 2006 war is that the Israeli public and the Israeli society have moved into a stage of development that they no longer are willing to fight. 3000 HA fighters fought to a standstill 30 000 Israelis. I wish you could see the pictures of Nasrallah in the region to have an idea of the depth of popularity that he enjoys.

Summary:  The real key to Washington's pro-Israel policy is long-lasting and broad-based support for the Jewish state among the American public at large.

WALTER RUSSELL MEAD is Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author, most recently, of God and Gold: Britain, America, and the Making of the Modern World.

Listen to this essay on CFR.org

On May 12, 1948, Clark Clifford, the White House chief counsel, presented the case for U.S. recognition of the state of Israel to the divided cabinet of President Harry Truman. While a glowering George Marshall, the secretary of state, and a skeptical Robert Lovett, Marshall's undersecretary, looked on, Clifford argued that recognizing the Jewish state would be an act of humanity that comported with traditional American values. To substantiate the Jewish territorial claim, Clifford quoted the Book of Deuteronomy: "Behold, I have set the land before you: go in and possess the land which the Lord sware unto your fathers, Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob, to give unto them and to their seed after them."

Marshall was not convinced and told Truman that he would vote against him in the upcoming election if this was his policy. Eventually, Marshall agreed not to make his opposition public. Two days later, the United States granted the new Jewish state de facto recognition 11 minutes after Israel declared its existence as a state. Many observers, both foreign and domestic, attributed Truman's decision to the power of the Jewish community in the United States. They saw Jewish votes, media influence, and campaign contributions as crucial in the tight 1948 presidential contest.

Since then, this pattern has often been repeated. Respected U.S. foreign policy experts call for Washington to be cautious in the Middle East and warn presidents that too much support for Israel will carry serious international costs. When presidents overrule their expert advisers and take a pro-Israel position, observers attribute the move to the "Israel lobby" and credit (or blame) it for swaying the chief executive. But there is another factor to consider. As the Truman biographer David McCullough has written, Truman's support for the Jewish state was "wildly popular" throughout the United States. A Gallup poll in June 1948 showed that almost three times as many Americans "sympathized with the Jews" as "sympathized with the Arabs." …………. (Read the rest: New Israel)

A Cast of 300 Advises Obama on Foreign Policy (NYT): "Dennis Ross, the Middle East envoy for Mr. Clinton and the first President Bush and a member of the Obama campaign’s Middle East team, is frequently asked by Ms. Rice, Mr. Lake or Mr. McDonough for help on framing Mr. Obama’s comments on Iran’s nuclear program and its potential threat to Israel.

“They’ve asked for substantive help: ‘Can I take a look at language on Iran?’ ” Mr. Ross said. “Or sometimes I’ve been asked questions to explain the administration’s approach on Iran.” Mr. Ross participated in a conference call last week with Mr. Obama and other advisers to prepare for the senator’s foreign trip, and he will travel with Mr. Obama in Israel and the West Bank city of Ramallah and at other stops. Mr. Ross described Mr. Obama in the conference call as focused on “drilling down” into the issues on the trip."

Why John Bolton is Right on Iran, by Gary Sick at Rootless Cosmopolitan by Tony Karon

Sanctions Fail to Cripple Iran's Oil Industry
U.S. Tries Squeeze But Fears Tehran Is Buying Time
By CHIP CUMMINS in Dubai and ROSHANAK TAGHAVI in Tehran
July 18, 2008

Sanctions Fail to Cripple Iran's Oil Industry
U.S. Tries Squeeze But Fears Tehran Is Buying Time
By CHIP CUMMINS in Dubai and ROSHANAK TAGHAVI in Tehran
July 18, 2008

As Iran prepares to hold nuclear talks this weekend with Europe and the U.S., economic sanctions are crimping Tehran's oil industry — but they haven't
broken it.

War*Piece. Via FLC

"A colleague writes, "Everyone seems to have missed the obvious: The State Department's third man is going to [talk with] Iran to send oil prices down. I'm sure Paulson told Bush this was the only way to stop a panic." Almost certainly part of it. (And is it working?)

Indeed, a US official involved with Iran policy wrote me a couple weeks back that high oil prices had severely crimped their policy: "It’s clear that the two-track policy put in place a number of years ago (incentives vs. sanctions) has been overtaken somewhat by the unforeseeable and dramatic rise in oil prices. Iran’s GDP has doubled, and they are more isolated from the effects of economic sanctions. At the same time the Iranians have made significant progress on enrichment. There are many, many more economic sanctions in the quiver, but we have carefully resisted imposing economic sanctions, unilaterally or multilaterally, that would significantly affect the Iranian people. Our goal remains an Iran without nuclear weapons, and our strategy remains the two-track approach. In light of the rise in oil prices and Iran’s enrichment achievements, the interim objectives that the two-track strategy should be aiming to achieve is something everyone is looking at, and there is no question that there is a way forward. …"

Sham Holding wins contract to build a private electrical power plant that will sell its electricity to the government. Although this article (in Arabic: Syria-News) proposes that this new method of financing and building a power plant in Syria constitutes the mobilization of home-grown capital and talent to solve the nation's problems, some questions are left unanswered. No mention is made of how the contract was awarded. Syria needs an improved and steady supply of electricity, no doubt. The country is moving away from the strict state-controlled model of the socialist era. It has been reluctant to sell state assets; however, many new Syrian oil companies, electrical power plants, and other large infrastructural investments, such as road building, are being handed over to private investors. Because some of those investors have strong ties to the state, the transition is not to a strictly free market model.

Israel Advises Nasrallah to Stay in Hiding

A similar controversy was raised by the assassination of Mughniyya, the Hizbullah hero. Some saw him as a legitimate national hero who drove foreign occupiers out of Lebanon with minimal loss of life and by targeting military objectives. Others see him as a master terrorist and murderer.

Here are some of the headlines: 

Israel Mourns, Hezbollah Exults: (By Griff Witte and Alia Ibrahim, The Washington Post)
In Swap, 2 Jewish Soldiers' Remains Are Released and 5 Lebanese Prisoners Go Home 

Freed detainees receive heroes' welcome - Hussein Abdallah: Five Lebanese prisoners freed by Israel arrived to a hero's welcome in Lebanon Wednesday, hours after Hizbullah handed over the bodies of two Israeli soldiers seized two years ago.Among those freed in a prisoner swap greeted with triumph in Lebanon but anguish in Israel was Samir Kontar, who was sentenced to five life.

Naqoura rolls out red carpet for liberated detainees Agence France Presse (AFP): Five Lebanese prisoners arrived to a triumphant red carpet welcome in Lebanon on Wednesday after being freed by Israel in a prisoner swap after years behind bars. The five - Samir Kontar and Hizbullah members Khaled Zeidan, Maher Kurani, Mohammad Srour and Hussein Suleiman - were given a heroes' welcome when they set foot on Lebanese soil.

Lebanese officials hail swap deal as harbinger of unity Dalila Mahdawi: Senior Lebanese officials welcomed Wednesday the prisoner swap between Israel and Shiite group Hizbullah, with many saying that the exchange would serve to bolster unity in Lebanon. Speaking to Al-Jazeera television about the returning Lebanese prisoners, Christian opposition leader and head of the Free Patriotic Movement MP Michel Aoun said.

Tens of thousands celebrate return of detainees in Dahiyeh Eugene Yukin: Tens of thousands of jubilant people descended into the Rayeh football court in Beirut's southern suburbs, better known as Dahiyeh, Wednesday night to celebrate the prisoner exchange that took place earlier that morning. In the prisoner exchange five Lebanese prisoners were exchanged for the bodies of two Israeli soldiers captured on July 12.

World leaders see prisoner exchange as positive step Eugene Yukin: United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon says he is encouraged by an exchange of prisoners that took place between Israel and Lebanon's Hizbullah on Wednesday. Ban said at a news conference in Berlin that he hoped it will be the beginning of many to come.

Swap criticized as granting Nasrallah victory Agence France Presse (AFP): Israeli commentators sharply criticized a prisoner exchange with Hizbullah on Wednesday, saying it gave a propaganda victory to the Lebanese group and set a dangerous precedent. The Maariv daily newspaper said Israel had been humiliated, arguing that Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah "will entrench his image.

Economics

Map from here US Dept. of Agriculture

Poor Middle East wheat crop to drive up imports

Poor rainfall will slash this year's harvest in Syria, a major foods and commodities player in the Middle East, to around 2.3 million tonnes from 4.2 million tonnes last year, according to traders and agronomists.

Syrian officials who deny it will go that far concede it will drop to 3 million tonnes, eroding a strategic stockpile of at least 1.5 million tonnes in country with wheat consumption of at least 3 million needed to feed 19 million people.

Syria's private millers have begun importing Black Sea wheat and the country is studying issuing tenders to buy soft wheat and even contemplating importing US wheat as its production hits a nine-year low. Barley production is also expected to fall to almost a third of last year's 800,000 tonnes production.

Syria Will Start Importing Wheat After Drought Hurts Harvest
2008-07-15 12:53:49.490 (New York)
By Abeer Allam

July 15 (Bloomberg) — Syria will start importing wheat for the first time in at least 18 years after drought hurt the crop. 

"We will likely make a decision about quantity in a couple of days,'' Adnan Ramadan, a senior official at state-owned grain exporter Hoboob, said today by phone from Damascus. “It won't exceed 100,000 tons.'' The Syrian government expects farmers to harvest 2 million metric tons of wheat in the year through June 2009, half the previous year's crop, according to a report by the U.S. Foreign Agricultural Service dated May 15.

"The harvest was below expectations this season because of the drought,'' Ramadan said. “We have halted exports for the past year to build our stockpiles. We will use imports to add to that.''

Demand in Syria, a country of 19 million people, is increasing because of refugees from neighboring Iraq, according to the U.S. report. Syria exports wheat to countries including Jordan, Yemen and Egypt.

Iran `Increasingly Isolated' on Financial Front, Levey Says 
By Steve Scherer

July 15 (Bloomberg) — U.S. Treasury Undersecretary Stuart Levey said Iran was becoming more isolated from the global financial and business community, especially as European countries begin to cut off business ties.

"What we've seen in the last month or so is very significant, with the Europeans taking a very important step forward in terms of actions against Iran,'' Levey told reporters today in Rome. Levey is undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence. “Iran is finding itself, because of its own conduct, increasingly isolated.''

Italy was Levey's first European stop on a trip aimed at coordinating diplomatic and economic pressure on Iran to prevent the Islamic republic from funding terrorism and developing nuclear weapons, he said. After meetings at the Bank of Italy, Foreign Ministry and the Finance Ministry this morning, he will travel to Spain and France.

Eni SpA, Italy's biggest oil producer, and Total SA, France's biggest petroleum company, this month both announced they wouldn't seek any new contracts or investments in Iran even as oil prices soar to record highs. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said oil prices will remain above $100 per barrel because of political tensions and threats against his country, according to a state-television interview late yesterday.

While U.S. policy to isolate Iran may put “some pressure'' on oil prices, the goal is to find a diplomatic solution, Levey said. Should diplomacy not work and force be used, the effect on petroleum prices would be “much more drastic and costly in every way,'' Levey said.

Oil prices climbed to near a record today and have gained more than 50 percent this year. Crude oil for August delivery rose as much as $1.55, or 1.1 percent, to $146.73 a barrel inelectronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Progress on Israel needed for Syria/EU pact-France
Tue 15 Jul 2008, 14:42 GMT

BRUSSELS, July 15 (Reuters) - It is still too early for the European Union to sign a stalled partnership pact with Syria and more progress is needed in dialogue between Damascus and Israel, the French foreign minister said on Tuesday.

"My personal opinion is perhaps it's a bit too early, we are going to have to wait and see how the dialogue between Israel and Syria develops," Bernard Kouchner, whose country holds the rotating EU presidency, told a European Parliament committee.

"But we should be prepared to move forward. Not yet, we should be on standby, and ready to respond to the opening up, the democratic opening up of Syria, but I think that we will need to bide our time," he said.

Kouchner was speaking after a visit by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to Paris at the weekend marking his emergence from isolation by the West three years after the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, which many believe was orchestrated from Damascus.

Just came back from Morocco, where I interviewed Saudi King Abdullah.

I was requested to join him in Casablanca where he stays for part of the Summer in one of his several Moroccan palaces. I'm enclosing a rough transcript of the interview in English, much as the Saudi Info Minister sent it. There are other questions I asked him verbally in Casà but those are in Italian in the published interview (out today). The verbal answers don't add much, except when he says:

"Listen to me carefully, I am speaking for myself and for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. We were already very disappointed when the price of oil reached $100. Imagine now, that it is expected to climb up to $200".

"I am deeply convinced that every Heavenly religion has good things for the benefit of humanity". Coming from the Custodian of the two Holy Mosques and from the Guardian of the Islamic orthodoxy, that is quite historic. Wouldn't you say?

Interview of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques
with La Repubblica Newspaper (by Alix Van Buren) 

QUESTION 1: Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz: What prompted you to call for the convening the Madrid conference on dialogue of religions, and to invite believers of different religions and cultures from all over the world? What are the results you hope for? What makes you so concerned about the fate of humanity in this world? 

ANSWER 1: The need for dialogue; between believers of different religions and cultures is called for by the current World conditions and the many crises faced by human communities. Also, the growing challenges that threaten to worsen existing economic, political and social problems and to deepen human suffering. Such condition prevails at a time characterized by wide spread of injustices, corruption and immorality, and the breakup of the family - the basic unit of all societies. Humanity is moving away from noble values and principles that form the essence of all religions and beliefs .  We are part of this world. We influence and are influenced by it. We are a nation of a sublime mission and deeply rooted cultural heritage. Our religion urges us to embrace the principle of dialogue and call upon us to cooperate and coexist in peace with others, and promote understanding, peace, accord and good values among all humans. My optimism stems from the broad positive response to the call for dialogue on the part of many circles, both inside the Muslim world and at all level of various religious and cultural levels around the world. 

QUESTION 2: You have organized an International Islamic Conference in Makkah. Do you see that Conference as one that provided an opportunity to improve relations between Muslim countries, as well as those between Sunnis and Shiites? You entered the Conference Hall holding the hands of the Grand Mufti of Saudi Arabia, and the former Iranian President Hashemi Rafsanjan. Does this picture symbolize better understanding between the two countries and the two sects?

ANSWER 2: We always look forward to establish accord and peace not only among Muslims with their various sects, but also between the peoples of the world with all their beliefs. Muslim scholars have not encountered difficulties in their Islamic Conference in Makkah in terms of stressing the principle of dialogue, since dialogue is an integral part of our Islamic teachings. God   ordered   us   to   have dialogue in the Quran, and Our Prophet (Peace Be Upon Him) also urged us to do the same. The policy of Saudi Arabia is also based on these principles. 

QUESTION 3: What is the current status of dialogue with the Vatican after your  historic visit to Pope Benedict XVI? Do you expect the coming dialogue to help heal up the deep wounds suffered by both sides, and ally Muslims' fear of new crusades, and Christians' fear of extremists who threaten values and cultures of the West? What is your response to al-Qaeda's denunciation of the dialogue among religions?

ANSWER 3: We can remove mistrust and suspicions from our minds through the principle of dialogue. A dialogue that underscores human commonalities which find their expression in all religions, beliefs and cultures. The all call for good in all its forms, and reject evil in all its manifestations. We will then realize that values and principles that unite us are more than those dividing us.  The differences that exist between cultures and societies in general are a matter of course and an eternal fact of the universe.

But it is forces of extremism, injustice and darkness that often seek to exaggerate and exploit these differences for the purpose of instigating conflicts and wars, thus bringing about a chaotic situation around the world. That is why we find them always in panic when they feel that there is an effort to engage in dialogue and promote understanding instead of confrontation and rivalry. These same forces know that dialogue is the effective way to abort their evil plans that are contrary to all religions and human beliefs, and inherent human nature. 

QUESTION 4: The G8 met after the Jeddah Energy Meeting, in an attempt to resolve the crisis of hiking prices of crude oil. But expectations are not optimistic and prices are continuing to rise. What bothers you most about the consequences of this international crisis? And what are, in your opinion, the main reasons for the continuous rise in oil prices? 

ANSWER 4:  Stability of the world oil market is the common goal of both the producers and the consumers, and we are striving hard to reach it. In spite of the fact that the Kingdom and a number of oil producing countries have raised their production capacity, we have not detected a positive response at the international oil market. This demonstrates the extent of the effect of other causes and factors on the market prices outside the framework of supply and demand.

Most importantly, speculations in the international oil market, and the imposition in many oil consuming nations of additional taxes on imported oil. Saudi Arabia called for a meeting of oil consuming and producing countries in Jeddah to discuss the current situation of the oil market. We believe that strengthening cooperation between the parties in tackling the global oil situation with all the variable that influence and impact the price of oil to the consumer is the guarantor to stabilize international oil market. 

We followed-up closely the meeting of the G8, and the resulting resolutions, including a call for dialogue between producers and consumers. It may be important to note here that a World Energy Forum has already been established, with Riyadh hosting its secretariat-general to achieve the goals of dialogue and to coordinate between producers and consumers.  In the context of our endeavor to protect the environment and address global climate change, Saudi Arabia has established the King Abdullah Center for Oil Research and Studies, in order to seek technology that would preserve the environment on one hand, and contribute to global economic growth on the other.

These efforts include a fund for energy, environment and climate change, as initialed by the Kingdom and announced during the third OPEC summit in Riyadh. Saudi Arabia contributed three hundred million dollars to this effort. I might add that this program will fund research in many areas including carbon emissions. We urge the G8 to support these existing programs and projects rather than make duplicate efforts in similar programs. 

QUESTION 5: Food shortage is the second crisis affecting the world after the oil crisis. What is the scenario, which you see, that would occur in the future regarding the scarcity of food and causes of food shortage? Will Saudi Arabia follow the example of China and invest in the fertile lands in other countries to ensure food security in the future?

ANSWER 5: The world has to put this crisis on the top of its list of priorities. It must double the effort internationally to address the food crisis because it has a direct bearing on the life of every human being. Saudi Arabia has dealt with this crisis at three main levels: 

First: It has supported the World Food Program (WFP) with 500 million US dollars in response to the world appeal to cope up with the increase in global fuel prices and food commodities. 

Second: It is pursuing a medium-and-long-term strategy to launch agricultural investment initiatives aiming at development and enhancement of agricultural products in countries that have the prerequisites for agriculture. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has agricultural experience, technology, and capital to invest in this area. The initiative is not only limited to buying land or even leasing them, but it also includes technology transfer and exchange of expertise, and development of agricultural companies, and other steps that would contribute to increasing agricultural crops and providing food to the world in order to alleviate the crisis. 

Third: We have been working to strengthen international cooperation to solve the crisis through our call at the Jeddah Conference to launch the "energy for the poor" initiative to enable developing countries to meet the increasing energy costs. We called on the World Bank to hold a meeting as soon as possible for donors' countries, as well as regional and international financial institutions, to discuss this initiative and put it into effect. We proposed to the Council of Ministers of the OPEC Fund for International Development to meet and consider the adoption of a parallel program and allocate one billion U.S. dollars to it. Saudi Arabia announced its readiness to financially contribute to these programs within the framework to be agreed upon.

Also, we have allocated $500 million U.S. dollars of low-interest loans through the Saudi Development Fund to finance projects that help developing countries obtain energy and initiate other development projects.  Undoubtedly these objectives require efforts from all countries of the world. 

QUESTION 6: The continuation of the Arab- Israeli conflict poses a third challenge. In case failure of the Annapolis conference, the only remaining peace plans on the table remaining is the Arab peace initiative presented by you in 2002. What made you put forward this peace initiative? Is this peace plan still in place and implementable? After 60 years of establishing the state of Israel, is it closer to live in peace with its Arab neighbors?

ANSWER 6: The Arab comprehensive Peace Initiative reflects the overall Arab sincere and serious will towards achieving a just, lasting and comprehensive peace in the Middle East on the basis of international legitimacy and laws. The Arab initiative is regarded as one of the main points of reference in the peace process, which the Riyadh Arab Summit re-emphasized. In addition to the Arab initiative, there are several international initiatives aiming at advancing the peace process in the region.

But all these efforts and initiatives are still colliding with an Israeli policy of rejection and of continuous seizure of more Palestinian land, building new settlements, expanding existing ones, and imposing all kinds of unjust restrictions and the imposition of a siege on the Palestinian people in clear defiance of all international laws and ethical principles. Whenever the Arabs and the world make a step forward towards peace, Israel embarks on polices of injustice, aggression against the Palestinian people. Therefore, the international community is urged, more than ever, to deal seriously with the Israeli intransigence, so that the longest crisis in modern history would find its way to solution.  

QUESTION 7: Are you concerned about Iran's strengthening its power in Iraq and presenting its new strength in the region?

ANSWER 7: Iraq is in a dire need of being free from external interference in its internal affairs by any party, so that it can move forward in its efforts to achieve security, stability and prosperity and maintain its national unity and sovereignty, and territorial integrity. The Iraqi people are capable of achieving these objectives with a sincere and serious national will, and full sense of one country among all Iraqis, regardless of ethnic backgrounds and political and religious affiliations.                                                             

QUESTION 8; Has Iran the right to continue its nuclear program? What is the extent of the damage caused by President Ahmadinejad's statements concerning the elimination of Israel? Israel has recently conducted military exercises simulating an attack on Iran. What are the results of such an attack? 

ANSWER 8: Nuclear proliferation in the region does not serve its security and stability. We hope that all countries of the region follow the policy of the GCC and the Arab League to make the Middle East and the Gulf region free from all weapons of mass destruction and nuclear weapons. As regards to the Iranian nuclear issue, we call for abandoning the language of tension and escalation, and the adopting of diplomatic solutions to this issue. As long as diplomatic efforts are still active and ongoing, I do not think there is room for discussing other options. The responsibility about statements made by certain countries lies in the countries making these statements.

QUESTION 9: Some people believe that the United States has lost its traditional influence in the region, because of its policies and because of the emergence of other competitive looking for a role. What do you think of this? Has it become difficult for America's friends to continue defending it? 

ANSWER 9: We think that the situation in the region requires every possible international effort in light of the difficult crisis it faces. Whether this effort is American, Russian, European, Islamic or Arab, we will not hesitate to support it as long as it is sincere and serious in dealing with these crises, and as long as it aims at achieving regional security and stability and prosperity, including the legitimate rights of the people of the region. Our international friendships are based on the defense of those rights and interests of the region and its peoples and nothing else. 

QUESTION 10: What has been achieved so far in Saudi Arabia in combating terrorism? Do you think that you have defeated AI-Qaeda end rid the country of its supporters? Or is there a need for more efforts to be exerted in this context? Is the world making enough efforts to fight terrorism? 

ANSWER 10: Observers of the Saudi efforts in fighting terrorism must feel the significant achievements we have made in fighting this scourge sedition over the past years. These achievements would not have been possible without the blessing of God, and the courage and sacrifices of the security forces, and the Saudi people standing united in confronting this phenomenon extraneous to their religion, society and culture. Since the beginning of recent terrorist attacks in the Kingdom, we adopted a comprehensive strategy to fight it. This strategy does not depend on its security side only, but also it includes fighting the financing of terrorism, and dealing with its intellectual roots through the adoption of an integrated program for defying the deviant thought and rehabilitating its followers and giving counseling and advice to them.

In this regard we called for an international conference to combat terrorism, which was convened in Riyadh. The conference called for the establishment of a counter-terrorism center for the purpose of prompt exchange of information, and adopt preemptive measure to prevent terrorist action. However the proposed center is yet to be established in spite of the support of many members of the world community. In addition we are working assiduously towards closer regional and international cooperation to confront the phenomenon. We are continuing with our efforts in this strategy till completely eliminating this phenomenon and drying up its sources, and the deviant thought leading to it. We still believe that the international community can exert better efforts in close cooperation and coordination to tighten the noose on terrorist networks wherever they exist, and deprive them of any safe havens that could be used to threaten the international community.  // END //