Szelhamos Rules

Thanks, but Joining the Darkside

TheAcsMan — Fri, 13 Apr 2012 19:51:25 +0000

Effective April 13, 2012, pages maintained only for historical reference and do not reflect current opinions nor events.

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To all my past blog readers, you know that it's always been about the money, so now I'm off to the Darkside, where money talks, and everyone else? Well, you know what they can do. But in the meantime, thank you so much for giving me a piece of your day. It has always been very gratifying for me, and thanks to the modern miracle of website analytics, I know where all of you live and get your dry cleaning done.

Creature of Habit

TheAcsMan — Thu, 12 Apr 2012 17:00:01 +0000

I really am a creature of habit.

If you have any doubt just do a search of this blog for "creature of habit" and you’ll see just how many times I’ve mentioned that personality characteristic of mine.

Although it's convenient to blame redundancy on memory lapses that accompany advancing age, that's really not the root cause.

That would be me.

It wouldn't take you 27 years of marriage to realize that I'm a repetitive sort.

The last time I wrote a blog was from 2007-8 and it was in memory of my father and appropriately, was named after him in a manner that was understood by those who knew him.

Szelhamos.com

It ran for precisely one year. What gratified me about that year was that over 10,000 hits came specifically to watch the fairly crudely designed PowerPoint slideshow that tried to provide a glimpse into his life. Certainly far more people than he would have met during his lifetime came to know him and his signature invitation to all, as well.

After that one year period, writing about the same topic as now and with the same non-sensical perspective that only a delusionally knowledgeable person could have, it was time to hang it up.

The second incarnation celebrates its first anniversary today.

If you're an impatient reader, I do apologize for burying the lead, but you can probably figure out where I'm going with this.

This time around the Szelhamos.com site was resurrected in order to find an outlet to publicize my book, Option to Profit, that, as a creature of habit, I’ve name dropped about 10,000 times, as well.

Option to Profit. And make that 10,000 and one.

So in celebration, if you have a Kindle, you can download a free copy today or tomorrow (April 12-13, 2012) or if you're an Amazon Prime member you can "borrow" a copy from here until eternity, whichever comes sooner.

As an aside, I don't care for the formatted appearance on the smaller Kindle screen, so why don't you just go and buy a copy of the real thing? Send me proof of the purchase and I'll laugh at your judgment and decision making process.

What? No Kindle and no money? No problem, other than the no money part. But go ahead and Download to your PC.

It was my oldest son’s idea to set up Twitter and Facebook presences in order to publicize the book and blog, despite my disdain for all things social. It was also his idea to transform Szelhamos.com to TheAcsMan.com, reflective of the Twitter handle.

Branding. It’s all about branding. Blame MalcolmAcs. Get off my back.

While all of this was about to go on, my other son GregOx was getting ready to learn how to defend his nation so that idiots like me could speak and write freely,

So in the one year that the new blog has been back, between the two sites, there have been about 50,000 visits and over 100,000 page views. I’m absolutely stunned by the number of regularly returning readers who needed no prompting, as well as the readers that responded to the barrage of self-serving Tweets that I’d sent out, as well as to the re-Tweets served up by some newly found friends.

There would have been many more had I not filtered out my IP address, as I was always continually amused by my own musings. Luckily, whatever of my own clicks were not counted were more than offset by the many readers sent by Danielle Kost of TheStreet.com.

And with all of those clicks, I can still confidently say that I added value to no one, but at least kept my La-Z-Boy lounger from walking off.

Although books did indeed sell, more than I would have ever imagined, that purpose became secondary, as I enjoyed the blogging, the Twitter community and the many opportunities both afforded me.

Firstly, I had the opportunity to meet Herb Greenberg, an intellectually honest journalist who is able to impeccably balance passion with objectivity. He was good enough to introduce me to his CNBC colleagues Brian Sullivan and Mandy Drury, both genuinely nice people.

I also had the very good fortune of appearing on Matt Miller’s show, Bloomberg Rewind and sold yet even more books as he so graciously mentioned it on air.

Money, money, money.

Strangely, I did with the book royalties what I would never do with my gainfully earned money.

I bought shares of a sub-$5 stock, Sprint and then more shares and then even more. I actually closed out that position just a few weeks ago, having had my entire lot assigned.

How completely expected, as befits a creature of habit.

If I were to do the book all over again, at least I would know that I was entirely justified in having included Herb Greenberg in the acknowledgments. It absoluely amazes me how much crap is sent his way in the form of 140 space or less packets.

Surprisingly, the Twitter experience has been especially gratifying and the small stream that I developed educated and entertained, while consistently humoring me both literally and literally. Not to mention the hordes of free iPad and Wal-Mart gift cards I've collected.

So, being a creature of habit, TheAcsMan blog takes its first anniversary as the time to hang it up again, but first, with a special #FF to my very favorite Twitter people.

First, I have to wonder about my first two Twitter followers who have stayed with me through the entire year. How pathology seeking are DGimbz and Steve Boyle?

In no apparent order and without regard to those damn 140 spaces: HerbGreenberg, Dasan, Tradefast, SellPuts, MarekFuchs, PKedrosky,Chartsmarter, thehistorytwins, stockaction, Jane Wells, SteveBeste, MattMiller1973, Aron Pinson, Lee Grindinger, Azahler, DennisKneale and EddyElfenbein.

In their own categories are Furlicity, for her tireless efforts to help me get a coveted "Shorty Award," DeeRaz, whose Tweets are intelligently unintelligible at first while always being highly impassioned and sincere, JayHawkJockDoc, the blog's single most engaged reader and ParmCharm, for always having something uplifting and nice to say.

Although she's not on Twitter, I'd be well beyond remissful if I didn't thank my Sugar Momma whom I mention with great frequency and may indirectly be the desire of many a surfing Saudi. I wonder whether it's merely coincidence that she's decided to work while I hold down the La-Z-Boy.

Probably.

So from now on, when she asks me what I'm doing on the computer, the correct answer will probably be "Porn."

Interestingly, when I informed Sugar Momma that today would be my last blog, she asked if she could write one, as well.

As well? Probably much better. But her's, if she meets the deadline, will appear tomorrow and I'm told she'll also be posting a daily T-shirt and coffee mug photo. too.

Now, I've also been introduced to some very good bloggers, most of all James Altucher, whose stories are wonderful to read and consistently engage the readership, as well.

Of course, I was also fortunate enough to get some guest bloggers for those days that I just couldn't get it done. To my dismay, blogs from MalcolmAcs, Vahl and George Pick were more popular than my own.

Damn them all to hell.

But it seems like it’s time to move onto something else, although I have to keep doing the trading, as I’ve grown accustomed to food, shelter and other things and have been very fortunate in finding a way to eliminate the need to leave a 5 foot radius in order to do so.

Which reminds me, another special thanks to the engineers at La-Z-Boy for designing that chamode model with an easy to launder fabric.

Unfortunately, I'm rejoining the "dark side" having resurrected the subscription "Option to Profit" site, as I like to make money with as little effort as possible. That site will continue certain pages of this blog, such as the very recently introduced "Weekend Update" and the Portfolio Holdings, Transactions and Performance pages, unless I find myself getting embarrased by their poor performance. But seriously, as a guy who would walk around with a monkeytail beard and posts ridiculous T-Shirt coffee mug combo pictures everyday really get embarrassed by much?

Can't say the same for Sugar Momma. Well, that's a different story. We take separate cars a lot and it's not a Queen Elizabeth and Prince Philip kind of strategy to preserve the monarchy.

In the meantime, it is back to writing and I hope to finish a couple of books, with the first being American Colonic, a fictional autobiography and then some more serious pieces, which actually require an academic commitment to historical research.

Ugh.

Finally, a special thanks to the readers. Whether accidental, curious Twitter clickers, through the vagaries of Google search, which has brought an incredibly consistent flow of Saudi Arabian readers seeking information on "my Wife’s Bra," or to those that came of their own volition, thank you.

And happy investing.

Look at this. She beat the deadline.So go and read Sugar Momma's take, The Real Sugar of Life.

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The Real Sugar of Life

TheAcsMan — Thu, 12 Apr 2012 16:00:35 +0000

Who better to give the real last word to than Sugar Momma?

Sugar Momma speaks out for the first and last time.

I have absolutely no background or interest in trading, the stock market, or options.

I came from a career in mental health and dealing with people as opposed to numbers. But living with TheAcsMan, I have been forced to pick up a few insights that can apply to the market or the supermarket of people in your life.

Yes, money, financial stability, all important things. But the real sugar of life comes from the people in your life. Your family, friends, neighbors, co workers, the cashier at Giant who wonders what you are going to do with all that baby bok choy.

Some of the important lessons you learn about trading are similar ideas that can apply to your relationships. There are ups and downs, Cycles, Gotta wait it out, Dont Panic, Be patient, do your homework. You take these lessons and go through life and think you know what's going on with people, what to expect, how to deal.

But people, like the market can sometimes really surprise you, even later in life when you think you know all about someone or something. You know the market, you know a person, been doing all this for 30 years and then a person does something or makes a change that really can be shocking.

So, like with the market, dont panic, don't assume just because it sounds right doesn't mean it's true.

Do a little research, be honest, communicate. Try to learn and find out all you can before you jump to those conclusions that can have some major consequences. If you don't you just might lose something more important than money.

The sugar of life.

We DIdn't Start the Fire

TheAcsMan — Wed, 11 Apr 2012 15:31:33 +0000

What a great song.

There are probably more college history and sociology courses centered around the tumultuous tale of the 20th century that is told in that song than any other musical composition ever, with the possible exception of American Pie.

For my money though, the Buddy Holly and Elvis Presley stand-off is a metaphor for East versus West tension and nuclear stockpiles build-up.

Or maybe it's just about some coming of age kind of thing, I don't know, but naming a movie series after the song has cheapened us all. Why didn't they just call it "Twinkies?" That would have made so much more sense.

As I re-discover the lyrics, I realize that I've actually used many of the subjects in passing, through various blog entries, as everything in the past has a degree of connection to the present, if you have a syphilitic riddled mind.

Their have been cover versions, remakes and satirical versions of the classical song and its driving musical beat. For those that lived through much of the historical period covered it's an incredibly moving song making you want even more and sometimes wondering how anyone ever survived the cumulative "us."

It was done despite "us."

But, with all due respect to Billy Joel (which is never a respectful way to begin a sentence), those that marched with Chou En-Lai and perhaps banged their shoes with Kruschev. the world's political and cultural events of the 20th century have nothing on even a single week in the financial markets.

In hindight, as quickly as the seminal events of the 20th century may have unfolded, they were at a snail's pace compared to the events and non-events that shake, rattle and roll the markets.

In that small section of the universe change comes about in quantum leaps forward and backward.

In a somewhat contradictory stance, despite the reliance on charts and the inferences drawn based upon past history, in the world of financial news, past history is meaningless. Further, in the compressed time frame of the markets, ancient past history is defined simply by the release of any new piece of information or data. Good news is quickly forgotten, as is great news. Bad news? As if it never existed if something else exists.

Market Alzheimer's Disease? Perhaps.

My brother-in-law is a wonderful soul. Sugar Momma is his guardian, as he is approaching his 65th birthday and basically functions as a 4 or 5 years old. The one ability he does have is to devour and remember the news. I'm still convinced, sitting next to him nearly 30 years ago watching the news unfold from the Soviet Union upon the sudden death of new Premier Andropov, that he muttered "Chernenko" under his breath, two full days before the CIA had even heard of Konstantin Chernenko.

Anyway, if you give verbally him a choice of items, he will always select the last one. Give him the same choices, but in a different order and its still always the last one.

Just like the markets.

The only difference being that my brother-in-law is always happy, regardless of his choices and how events unfold. I don't think that he ever thinks in terms of future events, but I've come to realize that the old adage that "the market discounts the coming six months" is entirely inconsistent with the way it behaves on a daily basis.

Whereas mankind has essentially always marched forward, with a slight detour during the "Dark Ages" the markets know no such manifest destiny.

Whatever "volatility" the world has known, it can learn a little something about the definition of that word by simply taking a cue from the markets.

What is really great is that the markets will move on macro-economic news, just as it does on the micro level. Add to that rumor, sector news, natural phenomena and scandal and you've got the necessary guts for a great soap opera with unpredictable twists and turns.

Billy Joel had Marilyn Monroe and Joe DiMaggio?

The market had Mozilo and Tyco.

Hula hoops and Belgians in the Congo?

We've had Crocs and Chinese in the Congo.

Roy Cohn, Dominique Strauss Kahn, Panmunjon and Rajaratnam.

It goes on and on and on.

Not so for the 20th century and someday the same will be said for the 21st century, but the markets are the gift that will always keep giving, if you're the kind that enjoys the unpredictable.

Through noon today we were at a 100 point gain fresh of yesterday's 200 point loss. The great thing about both of these is that there really wasn't any meaningful news. Calling today "a dead cat bounce" as at least two already have on air is curious, as the cat carcass isn't even cold yet. It may not even be a carcass, at all.

Sure, Monday we had the pent up need to sell after Fridays, Good Friday release of employment statistics, but that bit of bad news is now in some deep recess and even more irrelevant than Syngman Rhee, although not as emminently rhymable.

In the absence of making trades, looking for rhyming opportunites keeps me occupied, but not fed.

This week has probably been the slowest trading one that I've had since 2008. I made a simpel tarde selling JP Morgan calls expiring this Friday. But knowing that earnings are to be released before the market open on Friday, instead of selling the $44 near the money call, I went for the $46.

I just wanted some action and some premium income.

As Billy Joel may be able to remind you, that was precisely the same defense used by Charles Starkweather.

I wonder how that worked out for him?

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Kwanzaaian Economics

TheAcsMan — Tue, 10 Apr 2012 14:40:23 +0000

I've always liked the disclosure that begins with the words "it is not within the scope..."

Disclaimer, disclosure. It's all the same, isn't it?

Disclosure is a nice way of of saying that idiots need not apply and should have their hands held elsewhere if they need help pulling up their big boy pants.

Disclaimer is what you do when you know that despite your disclosure, people will still follow their blind prejudices, knowing that they can always blame someone else for their mistakes.

So let me disclose that it is not within the scope of this blog to create awareness of higher levels of being or finance. It is only meant to entertain me and keep me away from the neighbors.

I do very little on Facebook (or life, in general), having joined at the same time as I started this blog and started Tweeting. All were done with a singular purpose and objective in mind, which was to sell books.

I do belong to one membership site, which is comprised of past students at the small elementary school that I had attended. It happened to be a Yeshivah, which if you're unaware, is the Jewish version of a parochial school.

Jews, as you may be aware, through personal experience, or through your redneck stereotypes, can be an argumentative group.

It's alright for me to say "My Hebrew" in mixed company and "My Heeber" when outsiders aren't around, but it's not permitted for you to do the same.

Anyway, recently, there has been someone trying to prosletyze on the site, as he has become a member of a Messianic group.

God bless hom, but Jews don't prosletyze and they aren't enamoured with post-death baptisms, either. Essentially, Jews believe that it is not within the scope of their religion to force others to believe as they do. In fact, Jews further believe that you cannot be a good Jew unless you accept and respect the rights of others to believe as they desire.

You don't like Groupon? Fine, no problem. Go on with your life and prosper, despite the fact that you continue to buy the offers. No inherent conflict.

One member of the group, who has actually raised her own children as Catholics, but by no means is pushing anyone to change sides, recently said that from her perspective the only difference between Catholic and Jewish versions of God was their positions on relationship of Jesus to God.

If that were the case, Judaism should just simply be classified as a non-trinitarian sect of Christianity and possibly adhere to the concept of necro-baptism.

Having graduated from a Jesuit college, and for some bizarre reason with a Theology/Philosophy double major in addition to the job giving Biology, I thought that her view was fairly simplistic. All of those hours studying the New Dutch Catechism didn't go wasted on me.

But she was certainly not hurting anyone with her opinion nor the way she was leading her life.

Some, though, took great umbrage, both on religious and cultural grounds, as well as believing that the site's purpose, which was to recount memories, was an inappropriate place to discuss faith.

I actually spent a good part of yesterday evening reading about the pre-Protestant Reformation. Fascinating what people will do to one another in the name of God's grace.

But here we are, in the midst of two major Holidays, Easter and Passover, respectively celebrating the Risen Christ and the Unrisen Crust, neither of which can be proven through scientific methodology.

Thank God we have the science of Economic Theory.

But I think John Maynard Keynes had it all wrong, just as it may be that the major faiths of the world have it all wrong. To the best of my knowledge, however, Keynes killed no one, except for perhaps human dignity, which conveniently enough would be further quashed by government intervention.

What's needed is something that speaks to pragmatic existence and self-reliance, just like the Seven Principles of Kwanzaa.

Those principles are sound enough that there's no need for an Easter/Passover equivalent holiday.

Whereas Keynes believed that the private sector was inefficient and often required government intervention, I think that a Kwanzaaian approach to macroeconomics would be a useful place to begin re-thinking our relationship to things larger than any of us.

Especially the economy and the stock market.

Now, it certainly isn't within the scope of this blog to recount those seven principles, but I doubt that anyone would click on a link, if I had provided one, although this particular link is a video of Rakesh Agrawal in the nude at a local nursery school, reciting those principles.

Disclaimer: It is not within the scope of this blog to accurately depict anything. Only an idiot would believe the preceding paragraph, but you don't have to be an idiot to wonder how someone becomes an expert on anything.

A Kwanzaaian approach to investing would begin with reliance upon one's own instincts and not seek to blame others.

I always find it fascinating when people believe that their investments are ruined by a journalist's comments or delivery of news regarding questionable accounting practices. It's very easy to blame Herb Greenberg, for example, but he's not the one who used unorthodox accounting practices.

It's also very easy to blame Agrawal for Groupon's descent, but if you belive such, then your have company in your delusion of his importance, and it's not very good company.

The difference though, is that Herb Greenberg is objective anbd methodic in his analyses.

Drawing upon that so successful Twitter transcript from "Full Disclosure," consider this:

Agrawal: I'm going to take a break from $GRPN coverage to write about that. (Facebook purchase of Instagram)

TheAcsMan: Coverage? Are you a journalist? An analyst? RT @rakeshlobster I'm going to take a break from $GRPN coverage to write about that.

Agrawal: analyst

Agrawal: but realistically a mix of both. i analyze more than journalists and i journalize more than analysts.

TheAcsMan: Intersection of Loss & Words MT @rakeshlobster realistically a mix of both. i analyze more than journalists & journalize more than analysts

Agrawal: traditional objectivity ends up serving no one.

TheAcsMan: YIKES!!! RT @rakeshlobster traditional objectivity ends up serving no one.

TheAcsMan: Objectivity is tool to serve all through equal application of standards RT @rakeshlobster traditional objectivity ends up serving no one.

Agrawal: unforutnately, too often these days, objectivity = ignorance

TheACsMan: Please allow me to repeat earlier comment. YIKES !!! RT @rakeshlobster unforutnately, too often these days, objectivity = ignorance

TheAcsMan: Objectivity is tool to serve all through equal application of standards RT @rakeshlobster traditional objectivity ends up serving no one.

Agrawal: having someone who is ignorant quote two people on opposite sides with vested interests is stupid.

TheAcsMan: Unless objectivity = ignorance supposition is wrong MT @rakeshlobster someone ignorant quoting opposite sides w/vested interests is stupid

Agrawal: There's also fake balance -- e.g. birthers.

Huh?

Now, hours later:

Agrawal: People say they want positive stuff like this: http://bit.ly/HBHQfP but Groupon stuff like this: http://bit.ly/IaCOZC gets 3x the traffic

TheAcsMan: "Does it Pay to be Mean?" Yes. Yes it does http://j.mp/HtiLjK MT @rakeshlobster but Groupon stuff like this.....gets 3x the traffic

Agrawal: that is a really dickish interpretation of my tweet

TheAcsMan: Not at all. Same message. Negative tone gets more attention. RT @rakeshlobster that is a really dickish interpretation of my tweet

TheAcsMan: The point, with which I agreed, is (perhaps sadly) a negative tone often gets more interest. Human nature is hard to re-wire

Agrawal: I write based on what I find interesting. Not a commercial endeavor.

And today came disclosure of a long position in American Express, but at least there's finally disclosure, because it's clear that there's no objectivity as Agrawal "journalizes."

I just realized that I can completely ignore all Kwanzaaian principles. Rather than take responsibility for writing blog entries, I can simply provide a transcript service.

Now to be totall fair, I did seek to unload my personal "journalizing" responsibility by asking any Twitter follower to do my research for me, by making the following request:

TheAcsMan: Seriously. 140 spaces or less,: Can anyone point to source of @rakeshlobster credibility/expertise? "Full Disclosure" http://j.mp/In22n1

There were no takers. I should have offered a coffee mug as a prize.

But to my credit, I re-affirmed aq belief in a Kwanzaaian approach to life and re-accepted my own responsibility:

TheAcsman: So I see the strategy. Write incessantly about single topic $GRPN & beat dead horse. I may use same strategy & focus on @rakeshlobster

And I certainly didn't extend a hand of peace by suggesting:

TheAcsMan: ‏ Since everyone knows $GRPN is its own worst enemy, is there really a need for @rakeshlobster? Let's put job re-training dollars to work

And that's when I realized, that to criticize Keynes for killing human dignity is hypocritical when my own dignity is lowered by spending time addressing the dual sins of grandeur and delusion.

Instead, take charge and restore dignity by managing that which you can and afford all the right to laugh at those that need disclaimers.

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The Legacy of Woody Guthrie

TheAcsMan — Mon, 09 Apr 2012 13:29:09 +0000

When I was growing up, Arlo Guthrie was a rebel.

In an era when songs were neatly packaged for radio play and rarely even approached 4 minutes in length, his "Alice's Restaurant" was a beautiful gift for those disk jockeys with Irritable Bowel Syndrome. Prior to that, the first 4+ minute song to regularly receive airplay was "Ode to Billy Joe" in the summer of 1967.

Arlo Guthrie wasn't an accidental rebel. It was in his genes.

His father, Woody Guthrie blazed the trail.

Fascinatingly, despite the off beaten path of his ne-er do well life, Woody Guthrie is best remembered for his stirring songs, such as "This Land is Your Land," that sing the praises of America's natural beauty, as well as our own rights as a free people..

But he left behind another legacy.

That was for the passage of the genes necessary for that horribly generative neurological disease, Huntington's Disease, a disease which makes itself known during early adulthood and then eats away at the core of those so cruelly afflicted, until they just wither away to nothingness upon expiration

Huntington's Disease itself is at the core of a great ethical issue and internal personal conflict, as the presence of the gene combination necessary for it to manifest itself as the disease in future years can easily be known long before signs and symptoms appear.

The question facing the heirs of Woody Guthrie is whether they want to know their fate, especially since there is no treatment and certainly no cure.

How do you live your life knowing with absolute certainty that you will begin a horrible descent? How do you look your own children in the eye knowing that you may have very well passed the same fate onto them?

The dilemma is further heightened when you consider the possibility that the health insurance companies that may pay for the diagnostic testing may conceivably then become the very same companies to deny care on the basis of the insured having a "pre-exisiting condition."

We were never meant to know the unknown.

Yet, here we were waiting for the market to open on Monday morning with great certainty that a plunge was our immediate destiny.

How we knew that was to be our fate this morning was because of the disappointing jobs numbers released on Friday. The very same Friday that our markets were closed in reverence to Good Friday.

The brief futures market that day was the equivalent of genetic testing. It foretold of the sell-off that was to come and that was to be kept pent up over the weekend.

But there was absolutely nothing that anyone could do.

The die was cast.

As mentioned in this past "Weekend Update" I had no cash to use for this coming week.

Not only did I know that there was some form of horror awaiting, but it was akin to not even having any palliative medication to lessen the blow.

It's bad enough when there's no cure, but compind that with not even being able to take an aspirinb and then you've got some real tragedy to rhapsodize about.

For the past two weeks the only trade that's been working for me has been to sell weekly calls in the Barclays Volatility Index ETN and then either buy it back or let its value wither away to nothingness upon expiration.

I did so again this morning, as the VXX rose about 5%. Unfortunatreky, I was nimble enough to only do so on 50% of the shares.

Then the waiting game began.

I tried to buy back some ProShares UltraShort Silver ETF puts so that I could put the freed up money to work elsewhere, as there were so many bargains that seemed to be at hand, yet were so out of reach. I would still love the opportunity to pick up some combination of shares in Caterpillar, Goldman Scahs or Freeport McMoRan and perhaps sell puts in Focus Media and Riverbed Technology.I've also added Sallie Mae to my wish list of purchases, as it nears $15.

And like yesterday's re-watching of "Titanic." I just watched some of my portfolio shares seem to slowly fade and then die, all along knowing precisely what their fate was going to be and without enough hedges to safely take care of all aboard.

Imagine the agony of the Captain of the Titanic. knowing what the fate of his ship was going to be, but helpless to do anything about it.

Maybe if the Captain had a pair of 3D glasses he would have been better able to see the iceberg that awaited the hull of the unsinkable cruise liner and would have been a better position to react in a timely fashion.

Right now, those 3D glasses aren't really providing me with any help or relief as all I'm watching is a sea of red, that is no less disturbing and is without any clear way out..

Although I never have the feeling that I'd built an unsinkable portfolio, at least I try to have enough lifeboats and preservers to help weather the predictable obstacles..

But that's not the case this morning, as most of my holdings fall into the "weekly option" variety and aren't safe from the morning's foretold decline.

There may be some sort of "women and children first" rule, but I don't know what it would be. Do you preferentially protect your gains or do you protect those that may be poised for out-sized losses when the wave comes?

I suppose that today's market is a much better situation than faced by some of Woody Guthrie's heirs.

At the very least, we know precisley when today would occur.

Not suprisingly, it occured today, the first day of trading after the disappointing news.

We also know that it's unlikley that there will ever be a fall to zero. The trajectory, nor direction may not be known, but even if its downward, there will be good days interspersed with the bad.

The funny, yet wholly predictable thing is that if the direction turns out to be upward, then there will be bad days interspersed with the good.

Today, Instead of the slow and inevitable decline it was sudden and yet, without much in the way of negativity, as we are getting closer and closer to 2011. The past 10 trading days have seen some re-awakening of volatility as the market is looking for a new and safe level from which to re-strategize.

With advances in medical technology, including gene therapy, there's never a need to give up hope and stop that re-strategizing and human need to plan for the future.

You just have to survive long enough to see the Promised Land and get on the other side of that "No Trespassing" sign.

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Weekend Update April 7, 2012

TheAcsMan — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 17:15:11 +0000

What an oddly serene, yet uncomfortable week coming up.

Here we were, on Good Friday, on the precipice of another year in which lunar coincidence allows Passover and Easter to coincide.

For many, serenity comes from family time, celebration and sometimes the re-inforcement of faith, culture and heritage.

In honor of the holiness of Good Friday, even capitalists will put away their arms and take the day off from their all consuming efforts. After all, the Prince of Peace wasn't exactly a fan of the 1%, so what better way to honor the message of peace than to take a day off from advancing your personal caches of wealth?

I may not recall much from my college Theology class days, but I'm fairly certain that among the things that was not discussed at that Last Supper Seder was hedging strategies for the coming week.

Even those Jewish people without much in the way of belief will retell the story of the Exodus from Egypt in whatever metaphors are appropriate for their own friends and family. Again, hedging strategies are not likely to play a role in the re-telling of the story.

But still, what a perfect day to release the employment numbers.

Our currency may say "In God We Trust," but report releases rest for no deity.

The disappointment of having added only 120,000 non-farm payroll jobs had the abbreviated futures trading people heading for the exits. Yet, there was really no way for most of us to do anything in response to protect ourselves for what seems likely to come on Monday.

How odd to have a fairly clear vision of what is likely to happen in the markets a full three days in the future. Although, in that same time span, how many would have predicted a Resurrection?

For me, equally odd is the fact that I had absolutely no call contracts assigned, nor did I have any sold put contracts expire, nor be assigned.

In an example of bad timing, on Wednesday evening, I thought about buying back the put options I had sold on Kohls and some ProShares UltraShort Silver, as they still had two weeks until expiration and were well out of the money.

Since I expected that I'd otherwise have little or no cash forthcoming, closing out those contracts would have freed up substantial sums.

But both Kohls and the ProShares took big hits during the Thursday session and I had no compelling reason to cut those profits by closing out the positions.

What that means is that other than what meager cash I had in the portfolio account, there's no influx coming that will need to be re-invested.

That's too bad, considering that Monday morning is likely to offer some good bargains.

Typically, if I write a "Weekend Update" I use it as a blueprint for what I'm hoping to do for my own accounts in the coming week, but that's not going to happen this week.

Despite the fact that when I was younger I always strove to be on the "shirts" side in a game of "skins" versus "shirts." it's so much easier to have some credibility when writing about the coming week when you actually do have some skin in the game.

So take everything that I say with that very big caveat. Compund that with the fact that despite the fact that we're all expecting a large drop on Monday morning, by then the unemployment numbers will be old news.

But, if I did have money, I would be on the lookout to repurchase shares of some of my previous favorites that have come down in price to where I had lost them to assignment in the past month or so.

On that basis alone, Caterpillar and Goldman Sachs are very close to the $105 and $115 levels, respectively, at which I would re-purchase shares.

Additionally, Riverbed Technology is getting near that level at which I would sell puts, as is Focus Media.

For example, at its closing price on Wednesday of $27.19, you can get a $0.47 premium by selling a $25 put that expires in 2 weeks.

RIverbed would have to fall 8% in order for your contract to be assigned. In return you get a 1.9% return, based on a $25 potential purchase. It was last at that level two months ago, but it could happen again.

I would still take that bet, because Riverbed has always been very kind to me, but still, I won't because I won't have the money.

The numbers are similar for Focus Media. At its Thursday close of $25.10, it would have to drop 12.3% to reach a $22 strike price on the April 2012 put contract, for which you would receive a $0.35 premium, or 1.6% for two weeks. It too, was last at that level two months ago.

Also, since I don't have the money, I won't be adding shares of Freeport McMoRan, in an effort to execute a Double Dip Dividend play, as it goes ex-dividend, at its new increased level, on Wednesday.

I suppose that I could sell a kidney, or two, if I was really convinced of these plays, but most individuals involved in the underground organ markets are hard to find for people like me and eBay is of no help.

Maybe they're taking the holidays off, as well.

So, I'll likely sit and watch as the markets open on Monday, thinking the same thoughts of a week ago, as I was holding my "winning" Mega-Millions lottery ticket.

What if?

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Full Disclosure

TheAcsMan — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 14:23:36 +0000

For starters, allow me to make full disclosure.

On Monday I sold puts on shares of Groupon as a reflection of a short term bullish sentiment on its shares.

Unless you've been living in a cave or have been on an South Pole expedition you know that Groupon is that beleaguered daily deal space leader that has had a rough time of things.

If either of those are the case, you probably also still own shares of Research in Motion.

Sometimes you are your own worst enemy and there are no better recent examples of that adage than Groupon and Research in Motion.

From its IPO, including pre-IPO and post-IPO behaviors its been an embarrassment every way you can imagine. Embarrassment is one thing, but for those that purchased IPO day traded shares at $26, the drop below $15 is more meaningful.

In the past, I've been critical of Groupon and its juvenile leadership and arrogance. If you really care. take a look.

If you're really without a reason for living, I suppose that you could check through the Twitter archives and read other miscellaneous comments that I'd made over the months, especially about CEO Andrew Mason, although he certainly wasn't the only culprit.

During that time, I'd never own shares, nor had any interest, long or short in the shares of this company.

On Monday, I finally decided to take a position, by selling those April 2012 puts.

I did so following Groupon's press release regarding yet another accounting issue.

In the past, I've done very well selling puts on companies after they've taken big hits, but not being terribly speculative or risk taking by bnature, those positions have always been small.

In this case, if I am assigned shares, I'll be on the hook for about 0.28% of my portfolio.

Since Monday, other than mentioning the fact that I had taken the position, I've made no comments, derogatory or laudatory, regarding Groupon.

Not as if I actually would influence anyone by doing so.

Now on the other hand, we have Rakesh Agrwal, the self-proclaimed Twitter "Analyst focused on the intersection of local, social and mobile" and who further describes his activity as "I generally tweet about Groupon, the daily deals space, local, mobile and social startups, travel and life in the Bay Area."

He has been a fierce, persistent and vocal critic of Groupon.

I don't think that anyone could argue that it hasn't been justified.

About a month ago he had made a non-Groupon related comment on Twitter, something to the effect of "Sometimes the best thing I can do for a start-up is to say nothing."

That struck me as odd.

If you are an analyst, silence is an expression of subjectivity.

His response clarified his intent, as 140 spaces may make it difficult to get the story across.

What he inteneded to say was that for very young start-ups, in their infancy, it was best not to say anything derogatory, in order to give them a chance to get their systems up and running.

"Uh duh?"

So at least you may not be justified in thing that Agrawal was an unmitigated sadist. But my interpretation of the tone was that delaying comment when no comment was yet warranted, just gave the start-up time to hang themselves.

Today came Agrawal's full disclosure that he had bought January 2013 puts on Groupon, which he further qualified by saying "Frankly, I doubt that I'll have to wait that long."

After a quick query from me regarding the timing of his put purchase, Agrawal indicated that he posted his Tweet about purchasing puts immediately after having done so.

He further commented that his purchase of puts must hace come as news to those that thought that he had already done so, thereby indicating that this was the first time that he had taken any financial position on company's prospects.

Given his unrelenting attacks on Groupon, I wondered, and asked him whether it was appropriate for him to have done so. After all, he does portray himself as an objective critic.

The response was fascinating and to me, very much filled with both self-grandeur and delusion.

Agrawal: "The experts you see on CNBC and Bloomberg frequently have positions in the companies they talk about"

TheAcsMan: "Well understood, but are you an objective critic or out to influence market for personal gain?

Agrawal: "and certainly VCs all have positions in the companies they talk about."

TheAcsMan: "It's rare that I get inspiration for blog so early, but today, it will be "Full Disclosure" with special thanks to @rakeshlobster"

Agrawal: "the flip side of that is, i have made many people tell me "put your money where your mouth is".

Agrawal: "the trades are for fun. all immaterial to my personal financial situation."

Agrawal: "and are the standards different if you're long vs. short? i don't see why they should be."

TheAcsMan: "re: $GRPN puts. Mr. Nixon, so they were party tapes? RT @rakeshlobster trades are for fun. all immaterial to my personal financial situation"

Agrawal: "if this starts a wider discussion on conflicts of interest and economics of financial journalism, i'm all for it!"

Agrawal: " every time a company exec speaks, they have a conflict of interest."

TheAcsMan: "You portray yourself concurrently as insider VC, company exec etc" drawing parallels to justify actions. Analogy doesn't work"

Agrawal: "what doesn't work. Nearly everyone who talks publicly about companies has a conflict.

Agrawal: " the big difference is I'm being transparent."

Since I have a self-proclaimed deadline for this blog, I was done with my side of the debate.

It's probably coincidental that today's "T-Shirt Coffee mug combo featured the late Ted Forstmann and Virgin Music Festival."

No one ever had any doubt regarding Ted Forstmann's positions and motivations. His every word had a financial objective. But we all knew that. It wasn't transparency, it was just clear what his intentions were regarding companies that were on his radar screen. And no, I'm not an investing or financial news media Virgin. I understand the concept of where the bread and butter emanate as being potentially influential.

But the purpose was served. In fact, I don't think that I've ever gotten inspiration so early in the day, as I did this morning for the day's blog topic

In all, it started as a great day, so I'm hard-pressed to say that I was looking for something petty to argue about.

I went to the Maryland Department of Motor Vehicles this morning for a license renewal, having freshly removed my monkeytail.

Even though posted hours began at 8:30, the doors were open and they were already processing people.

Despite a full house, I was out of there in less than 20 minutes.

How could that not set the tone for an up day?

Despite the fact that the market was down by more than 150 points in the late morning, for full disclosure, I sold more Barclays VIX calls expiring this Friday.

For further full disclosure, I've gone on the record defending these Volatility Index products and have clearly demonstrated my transparency by documenting my concurrent long positions and sales of calls and puts.

I guess that may also document either my confusion or schizophrenia.

Yet, I have still enough coherence to be somewhat bothered by Agrawal having taken a position in the fate of Groupon.

If he is a Venture Capitalist, or if he is an Executive of a publicly traded company, that company is not Groupon.

Neither is it clear that he is such with any of Groupon's many competitors.

To the average person, it would appear that Agrawal is offering his comments as an objective analyst, whether he is renumerated for such activity or not. Just as a meaningful aside, it doesn't appear as if he is being retained to offer analysis about Groupon, but I could be wrong, or I may have missed that disclosure.

I suppose that if he helped to slide the pole and then sold puts that might be marginally ethical, as long as he stopped spouting negative comments to help fulfill the prophecy.

With my 0.28% on the line and with his trading for fun, there's not much material effect, presumably for either of us. But then there's the matter of everyone else that owns shares in Groupon, either as measures of faith in the company, by virtue of employment or just through good old fashioned speculation.

There's certainly nothing wrong with self-immolation if you're a publicly traded company, but I do think that there is something wrong, when you are in part, taken down by a war of words that belie a financial play.

Oh my God. Did Patrick Byrne ghost write that last paragraph?

I don't really consider myself terribly old fashioned. I believe in bending the Ten Commndments and revel in the Seven Deadly Sins. But something bothers me about appearances and feigned credibility.

For full disclosure, this blog was written in its entirety while I was holding my breath and violating two of the aforementioned Commandments.

Oh, and before I forget, for complete disclosure, yes, I did desecrate some graves, but that was before the price of gold dropped so precipitously.

NEW RECENT TRANSACTIONS FOOTER

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It's all About Appearances

TheAcsMan — Tue, 03 Apr 2012 16:21:59 +0000

As time goes on I've come to realize that what I once thought was my absolute grasp on the secrets of the Universe were just a prelude to the growing realization that I understand nothing.

Nothing at all.

What I'm also realizing is that during that period of your life when you are on the path of professional ascendancy or at least hoping to be on that path it's not about substance at all.

It's always about appearances.

Is that All it Takes?

TheAcsMan — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 17:41:10 +0000

The day started with a nice surprise for me.

Still upset about the bad luck I'd had when my computer froze during the final minutes of FrIday's trading session, I was prepared to start the week with most of my Freeport McMoRan shares assigned from me after just having sold those calls earlier in the day on Friday.

Compound that with only a net $8 profit from the big mega-Millions drawing and you've got some blood pressure raising seething going on that can be internalized for only so long.

Sometimes, though, the system is neither perfect in its execution nor in its pricing.

For example, sometimes really stupid people win really big lottery prizes.

They can be safely assessed as having been stupid on the basis of blowing through tens of millions of dollars and more in just a few years and being left with nothing but memories of days of grandeur.

That reportedly happens fairly often, so there may be an inverse corrrelation between jackpot winners and IQ. I still don't understand all of the testimonials of past jackpot winners who claim that their lives became worse in so many untold ways after their good fortune.

Seven out of ten people that I polled on that issue agreed that it was a sign of stupidity at its greatest height.

Sometimes the system gets it wrong too, as shares are expected to be assigned if they closed more than a penny above their strike price.

But the surprise, the yawn of a system taking a break, was right there, staring at me this morning.

I felt as if I'd gotten a gift when only the smaller lot of my Freeport shares was assigned, leaving a bit more than 75% of the shares still safely stored in my portfolio.

Not quite a Mega-Millions jackpot, but I gladly accepted it.

Of course had those shares not taken a well deserved climb well higher this morning, I'd be muttering about the inequity of the system letting me down and would be raging against those 1% fat cats that comprise the 1% of the 1%.

Instead, move over and make room for me and my boys, Mac and Moran.

As it would turn out the market was poised for a dull open to begin the week.

That suited me just fine since I ended up having much less available for re-investing, having already jumped the gun on Friday by picking up shares of JP Morgan in a Double Dip Dividend play andnot having as many shares of Freeport assigned.

The market played along with its pre-open futures script, opening a bit to the downside, but without much in the way of conviction.

And then, just as we've seen all throughout 2012, it doesn't take that much to get a party started.

Today all it took was the release of a private survey of American manufacturing executives that "suggested" that all was rosey with regard to factory activity, employment and output.

Add to that yet another private survey of Chinese exporters indicating they had sunk to their lowest level of exports in three years and all time high post-Euro unemployment rates, and then all of a sudden things start looking pretty good right here in the U.S.A.

That's why you should always follow the strategy of hanging out with uglier and stupider people than you.

It's all in the comparisons.

It never ceases to amaze me how quickly market sentiment can turn on an intra-daily basis with the release of data that may not even enjoy an official imprimatur.

Never mind that the day's data may be inconsistent with the manner in which yesterday's data was interpreted, because that was so yesterday.

Top that off with a reliance on survey results of Chinese exporters who clearly must be reliable reporters and you further wonder.

What I really begin to wonder about is whether we in the democrarcy and feedom loving western civilization have had it wrong for so many years.

Maybe Marx was right about there being an "opiate of the people," but it may not have been religion, after all. Maybe all we really need and crave to keep us pacified is a steady stream of good news, regardless of validation or corroboration.

Look, The Soviets and Communist Chinese, back when they were the non-capitalistic Communists routinely put out stellar reports of their 5 year plan accomplishments.

That system worked for each of them for 40 years or more. It's easy to feel good when you're told that things are good. More importantly, if you believe that things are good, but they are not so for you, you're not likely to tell anyone, for fear of being ridiculed while everyone else is supposedly thriving.

Of course, at some point, reality and the reports of reality begin to clash and the cover-up gets more and more difficult.

But so what?

We seem to have emerged from an incredible cover-up of the wobbly supports of our financial systems.

Lehman, Bear Stearns? You could bank on them.

And then you couldn't.

But here we are just barely 4 years later and the mood is elevated.

The market is back to within easy striking distance of its all time highs. Unemployment rates are coming down. Inflation is non-existent.

How many years did we get away with lies? And what was the price that as a society we paid once those lies caught up to us?

In the big picture, doesn't seem like it was a terribly large price, as long as your number didn't happen to get called.

So with that kind of a backdrop, I felt confident enough to think that Groupon's woes from its most recent battle with accounting standards would be just another blip created by lies and then perhaps corrected by a new set of lies or the new reality.

So I sold puts in Groupon, assuming that the April Fool's joke of Rocky Agrawal, perhaps Groupon's largest detractor, not actually joining Groupon, was a positive for the company.

Groupon was not on my list of things to be involved with as we started the new shortened trading week.

I did pick up shares of Morgan Stanley as planned but didn't get the kind of downward price movement as I had wanted on Focus Media to make it reasonable to sell put contracts on those shares.

But that's what next week is for.

With volatility low and this being only a four day trading week, options premiums aren't very appealing, so I may find myself holding out for captal gains on the underlying shares for a change.

What's clearly needed is some private survey firm to widely release the results of a poll that can be administered to a group of self-interested individuals to advance their agenda.

In that way, it's not really just a rumor. It's market movong survey results.

These days, that may be all it takes.

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Recent Trades	Security	Type	Action	Type
April 2, 2012	GRPN	Put	STO	Monthly
April 2, 2012	CHK	Call	STO	Weekly
April 2, 2012	XLE	Call	STO	Weekly
April 2, 2012	MS	Call	STO	Weekly
April 2, 2012	MS	Stock
March 31, 2012	FCX	Call	Expired	Weekly
March 31, 2012	BP	Call	Expired	Weekly
March 31, 2012	CHK	Put	Assigned	Weekly
March 31, 2012	FCX	Call	Assigned	Crumbs
March 31, 2012	VXX	Call	Expired	Crumbs
March 31, 2012	MOS	Call	Expired	Weekly
March 31, 2012	GMCR	Call	Expired	Weekly
March 31, 2012	VXX	Call	Expired	Weekly
March 30, 2012	JPM *	Call	STO	Weekly
March 30, 2012	JPM	Stock	Buy
March 30, 2012	HAL	Put	BTC	Weekly
March 30, 2012	VXX	Call	STO	Crumbs
March 30, 2012	FCX	Call	STO	Crumbs
March 29, 2012	VXX	Call	STO	Crumbs
March 27, 2012	DOW	Call	STO *	Monthly
March 27, 2012	DOW	STock	Buy
March 26, 2012	GMCR	Call	STO	Weekly
March 26, 2012	ZSL	Put	STO	Monthly
March 26, 2012	MOS	Call	STO	Weekly
March 26, 2012	MOS	Stock	Buy
March 26, 2012	XLE	Call	STO	Weekly
March 26, 2012	XLE	Stock	Buy
March 26,2012	CHK	Put	STO	Weekly
March 26, 2012	HAL	Put	STO	Weekly
March 26, 2012	BP	Call	STO	Weekly
March 24, 2012	CHK	Call	Expired	Weekly
March 24, 2012	FCX	Call	Expired	Crumbs
March 24, 2012	GMCR	Call	Expired	Weekly
March 24, 2012	MCP	Put	Expired	Weekly
March 24, 2012	MS	Put	Expired	Weekly
March 24, 2012	SLV	Put	Expired	Weekly
March 24, 2012	VXX	Call	Expired	Weekly
March 24, 2012	BP	Put	Assigned	Weekly
March 24, 2012	MCP	Call	Assigned	Weekly
March 24, 2012	MOS	Call	Assigned	Weekly
March 24, 2012	MS	Call	Assigned	Weekly
March 24, 2012	VXX	Put	Assigned	Weekly
March 23, 2012	ZSL	Put	STO	Monthly
March 23, 2012	FCX	Call	STO	Crumbs
March 22, 2012	ZSL	Call	STO	Weekly