The Cub Reporter (TCR) | A Chicago Cubs Blog

Cubs Protect 5 from Rule 5 Draft

Rob G. — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 23:27:42 +0000

The Cubs added pitchers John Gaub, Blake Parker and Rafael Dolis along with catcher Welington Castillo and OF James Adduci to their 40-man roster. All five were eligible to be selected in the upcoming Rule 5 draft and the deadline was today to add them. Arizona Phil has been keeping track of this on the right sidebar of course. He had Matt Camp on his short list of players he thought the Cubs would protect - rather than Adduci - but he got the other four.

Besides Camp, I would guess that Steve Clevenger, Alessandro Maestri, Thomas Diamond, J.R.Mathes or Greg Reinhard might draw a little interest.

AZ PHIL: 21-year old RHP Rafael Dolis gets four minor league options because he has spent only one "full season" on a major league or full season minor league team's active list through the 2009 season. He wowed the scouts in his last outing at Instructs last month with a fastball clocked in the upper 90's that touched 100, and he probably would have been the 1st pick in the Rule 5 Draft if he hadn't been added to the 40. Dolis has battled elbow and shoulder problems for much of his career (he was signed by the Cubs as a hot-shot fire-ballin' 16-year old out of the Dominican Republic during the International Signing Period in 2005), spending all or parts of the 2006-08 seasons on the DL, and so 2009 was the first year he has pitched injury-free, and was also his first official "full season." While he has a power arm, he also has control issues, as he walked 53 and hit seven batters in 99 IP at Daytona in 2009. Because of his still-limited professional game experience and command issues, he is still a bit of a project. He was a rotation starter at Daytona, but he projects as an MLB one-inning power-reliever.

22-year old Welington Castillo was signed as a 17-year old out of the Dominican Republic in December 2004, and has been the Cubs #1 catching prospect for the last couple of years. He got an NRI to Spring Training with the big club in both 2008 and 2009. He threw out an organization-high 44% of opposing base-stealers in 2009, cut his passed balls in half. and reduced his errors, too, but he struggled at the plate during the first half of the season at AA Tennessee. He then caught-fire in July, August, and September (319/357/519 post-ASB). Castillo is still VERY raw (he can get lazy with his receiving and he tends to make too many unnecessary throws trying to pick runners off base), but if he continues to progress, he could be a "Flying Molina Brothers"-type frontline MLB catcher by 2011 or 2012.

24-year old LHP John Gaub was one of three pitchers the Cubs acquired from Cleveland for Mark DeRosa last December (RHPs Jeff Stevens and Chris Archer were the other two). Gaub was a top pitching prospect and a possible eventual 1st round pick when he was throwing 96 MPH at the University of Minnesota, but then his career was derailed when he underwent shoulder surgery during his junior year. Despite the surgery, the Indians selected him in the 21st round of the 2006 draft, with the understanding that he would spend the rest of 2006 and most of 2007 rehabbing at the Indians minor league facility. He resumed pitching late in the '07 season, before finally getting a full season under his belt in 2008 at Lake County (MWL), where he struck out 100 in just 64 IP. The Cubs assigned him to AA to start the 2009 season, before giving him a mid-season promotion to AAA Iowa. (Gaub struck out 80 in just 60 IP combined between Tennessee and Iowa in 2009, with a 1.15 WHIP and a 2.25 ERA). He then was assigned to the Mesa Solar Sox in the AFL post-2009, where he had trouble throwing strikes. He now throws a 93 MPH fastball and a hard-breaking slider, and probably projects as an MLB LOOGY.

24-year old lefty-swinging & throwing OF-1B James Adduci is the son of ex-MLB 1B-OF Jim Adduci (STL-MIL-PHI 1983-89), and attended Evergreen Park HS in southwest suburban Chicago. He was the PTBNL in the Todd Wellemeyer trade with Florida back in 2006. (Originally the Cubs got RHP Lincoln Holdzkom and LHP Zack McCormack for Wellemeyer, but McCormack had suffered what turned out to be career-ending arm injury prior to the trade and was returned to the Marlins as "damaged goods," and so the Cubs were given the summer to scout the Marlins system for a replacement player, who turned out to be Adduci). He is a tall & lanky kid (6'3 185), but he has almost no power. He has developed a nice, compact line-drive stroke over the past couple of years, however (hitting 290/380/365 at Daytona in 2008, then 300/377/388 at Tennessee in 2009), and has morphed into a patient hitter who takes a fairly high number of walks. He is a fast runner and an excellent base-stealer, too (26 SB at Daytona in 2008, then 35 SB at Tennessee in 2009), He was a 1st baseman in HS and in his first three seasons of pro ball with the Marlins, but the Cubs moved him to the outfield to take advantage of his athleticism and plus-arm. He can play all three OF positions, as well as 1st base. He projects as an MLB 4th OF-1B-LHPH-PR.

24-year old RHP Blake Parker was drafted by the Cubs as a power-hitting C-3B-1B out of the University of Arkansas back in 2006 (16th round), but was converted to pitcher at Extended Spring Training in May 2007 after hitting a combined 224/325/367 at Mesa and Peoria in '06. He had been the clean-up hitter and top run producer for the EXST Cubs in 2007, and the other players at Fitch Park at the time were shocked to learn that Parker had been moved to pitcher, because it happened the day after he hit a GW grand slam HR. He had been a pitcher in HS, however, and one of the pitching coaches at EXST at that time (I believe it was then-Boise pitching coach Tom Pratt) saw Parker throw a 93 MPH fastball and a hard-breaking slider off the mound as a lark, and told him he should consider a move to pitcher. Parker said he was willing to give it a try, and he's been rocketing up through the Cubs system ever since. He was the closer at Tennessee and at Iowa in 2009 (combined 25 saves, 2.70 ERA, and 1.25 WHIP), and he also was the primary closer for the Mesa Solar Sox in the AFL post-2009, but he probably projects as an MLB middle-reliever.

Cubs Rumor Round-Up: Halladay, Bradley

Rob G. — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 22:46:17 +0000

- Muskat blogged that the Blue Jays contacted the Cubs about Roy Halladay.

...there's a catch. He's owed $15.75 million in 2010, and the Blue Jays want some of the Cubs' top prospects. No. 1, the team can't take on Halladay's salary. The Blue Jays apparently have a wish list and Milton Bradley is not on it. A player like highly regarded shortstop Starlin Castro most likely is, and the Cubs don't want to part with him, especially since they might only have Halladay for one year.

A good time to show your committment to winning Ricketts family - we're all counting on you.

- Phil Rogers tried to sell a 3-way trade of Luis Castillo to the Cubs, Kevin Millwood to the Mets and Milton Bradley to the Rangers. It was quickly shot down though by the Cubs and Rangers.

- Carlos Marmol claimed the Cubs were pursuing Pedro Martinez, but the Cubs shot down that as well.

- John Grabow's deal is official, 2/7.5M. A report from Bruce Levine said it would go up by a million in the second year, so that makes it $3.25M in 2010 and $4.25M in 2011 if that ends up being the case. Also should note that Grabow's been dealing with bone chips as well for the last three years. I'm sure that won't bite the Cubs in the ass.

- Last day to enter the TCR Free Agent Frenzy contest, I'll shut it down sometime this weekend.

Sun Sets on 2009 Solar Sox

Arizona Phil — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 01:13:57 +0000

Mike Leake (CIN) threw four innings of shutout ball and Lance Zawadzki (SD) had three hits, including a solo home run and a two-run double, leading the Peoria Saguaros to an 8-1 victory over the Mesa Solar Sox at HoHoKam Park this afternoon.

box score

This was the final regular season game for both teams, as the Phoenix Desert Dogs (East Division Champions) and the Peoria Javelinas (West Division champs) will play in the 2009 AFL Championship Game at Scottsdale Stadium on Saturday. The Solar Sox finished in last place in the AFL East Division, with the worst record in the league.

Starlin Castro, Josh Vitters, and Michael Brenly were in the Solar Sox starting lineup today, and went a combined 1-11.

Castro hit 2nd, played six innings at SS, and got three ABs, grounding out all three times (4-3, 5-3, 4-3). He also made only his second error of the AFL season, a bad throw to 1st base. Castro finished the 2009 AFL regular season with a .376 batting average (6th in the league) and nine stolen bases (tied for 3rd).

Vitters returned to the lineup at 3B this afternoon and went 1-4, roping a double down the line into the LF corner with two outs in the bottom of the 4th. He also bounced out 6-3, popped-up to the shortstop, and was called out on strikes. Vitters finished the 2009 AFL campaign 9th in the league in hitting (.353).

Michael Brenly was the Solar Sox catcher today, and went 0-4, flying out to RF, striking out (swinging), popping out to the second-baseman, and reaching base on an E-6 in the 9th. Brenly went 1-13 over his last four AFL games and hit .240 overall.

LHP John Gaub and RHP Blake Parker (both vying for spots on the Cubs 40-man roster) made their final AFL appearances versus the Scorpions last night at Scottsdale Stadium.

Gaub struggled in his one inning of work, throwing 23 pitches, but only 11 strikes. He loaded the bases on two walks and an infield single, but was able to escape the frame with no runs scoring. Gaub struck out one batter (lefty-swinging SF 3B Brandon Crawford).

Parker threw one inning of shutout ball, allowing a two-out double before striking out Steve Susdorf (PHI) for the 3rd out.

LHP James Russell completed his AFL season on Tuesday, working a scoreless 9th. Russell pitched very well, finishing 3rd in the league in ERA (1.26) and tied for 2nd in WHIP (0.98). Russell had a 0.00 ERA over his last ten appearances, allowing eight hits and two walks while striking out 12 over that ten game span.

RHP Andrew Cashner made his final AFL start on Tuesday, and went three innings. He finished 10th in the league in strikeouts.

AZ PHIL'S 2009 AFL FIRST-TEAM ALL-STAR SQUAD:

P - Stephen Strasburg (WAS)

C - Nevin Ashley (TB)

1B - Brandon Snyder (BAL)

2B - Marcus Lemon (TEX)

3B - Brandon Laird (NYY)

SS - Starlin Castro (CUBS)

LF - Colin Curtis (NYY)

CF - Grant Desme (OAK)

RF - Casper Wells (DET)

DH - Matt McBride (CLE)

MVP: Grant Desme

Cubs Deal Heilman to Diamondbacks

Rob G. — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 21:44:14 +0000

The Cubs have traded RHP Aaron Heilman to the Arizona Diamondbacks for two minor leaguers, LHP Scott Maine and 1B Ryne White. No one on the Cubs or their fans is probably gonna miss Heilman so I won't waste much space on him, but it was a good way for the Cubs to get something for a guy that was probably a good bet to get non-tendered.

White's a local boy that went to high school at St. Rita, not too far from MIdway Airport. He then went to college at Purdue and was drafted in the 4th round by the Diamondbacks in 2008. He spent that year in Rookie Ball and then the Midwest League for a handful of at-bats, so the Cubs probably got a chance to see him a bit there. Last year he went to Hi-A with Visalia and finished with a 266/371/356 with 65 BB's against 87 K's in 491 PA's. He'll be 23 next season.

Prior to the 2009 season, one scout.com article had him listed as a top 5 power hitting prospect in the Diamondbacks system, although he has yet to show that power.

White suffered a power outage once he began to face Midwest League pitching. Still, between Purdue, Missoula, and South Bend, White combined for 34 doubles, a triple, 19 homers, and 99 RBI in 2008. He is a big pull hitter who figures to improves as he continues to receive professional instruction. There are several Diamondbacks prospects who displayed more power this year, including Harbin, Peter Clifford, and Isaias Asencio, but none of them has quite the ceiling that White does.

He played a little bit of right and left field as well last year for Visalia.

Maine's a 6-3" lefty that will be 25 next season and was drafted in the 6th round in the 2007 draft out of the University of Miami. He pitched for both Double A and Triple A in 2009 and between the two leagues he had a 2.90 ERA in 2009 in 62 IP and a 8.9 K/9 rate and 3.2 BB/9 rate and a 0.3 HR/9. He was selected for the Arizona Fall League, but just made two appearances and gave up 3 runs in 1.2 IP. I assume he was replaced, but can't find any details on the matter.

He got hit pretty hard in 2009 by lefties, a .325 average versus .259 versus righties, but his K/9 rate was much better versus lefties, so it could just be a matter of bad luck. His career minor league splits show a .259 BA against lefties with a 10.59 K/9 rate compared to a .266 BA versus righties and 8.92 K/9 rate. He also seems to be able to induce more groundball versus lefties than righties (55.3% versus 42.0%).

Stuff wise, he comes from a low-three quarters delivery and features a fastball (89-92), curveball (wicked movement, difficult to control) and a changeup.

It should be noted that Maine has already undergone Tommy John Surgery way back in 2004 and also was in a very bad car wreck that shattered his skull and forced him to wear a protective face plate. At the very least, he's a good comeback story to root for...

Grabow Deal Near Completion

Rob G. — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 14:27:22 +0000

Bruce Levine is reporting that a deal with John Grabow should be completed today for two years and nearly 7.5 million. I had expressed my indifference in the past over resigning Grabow. Oh sure, his ERA has been pretty good the last two years, but with a BB/9 rate near 5 last year and 4.15 for his career, I don't think anyone would really miss him if he got away. I was asked in the comments yesterday how I'd handle this situation and here was my response.

I offer Grabow arbitration and wait to see if he takes it...chances are he will because a team doesn't want to give up a draft pick for a set-up man(ed. note - Grabow is classified as a Type A free agent). That'll cost the Cubs probably an extra $1M this year, but if Ricketts is serious about propping the farm system, he'll roll the dice(ed. note - when I say Ricketts, I mean they'll offer to cover Hendry's budget if Grabow wins a big arbitration case). Maybe the Cubs get lucky and a team with a protected pick signs him or one that signed a few other FA's and the Cubs score some extra draft picks. If he does sign with another team, I wait until February when inevitably some lefties will still be around and sign one or two on the cheap. I imagine you can find a few on the trade market for Jake Fox who will likely be traded, since he's out of options and in Lou's doghouse.

In general, I could care less if the Cubs have even one lefty in their pen. It's a stupid unnecessary crutch for a manager so he can make safe moves that the media won't blast him on. The Angels did plenty good for awhile with their pen with no lefties (before Oliver and Fuentes). Better off finding good relievers that can get guys from both sides of the plate and you'll trust for an inning or longer. Cubs had a great LOOGY in Ohman and couldn't figure out to use him.¹

And I don't mind Grabow, he can get guys from both sides of the plate, I just think's just slightly above average and I'm also not sure Lou will use him properly, which is a full inning at a time, rather than a match-up lefty.

Now when I wrote that, I figured Grabow could get anywhere from $4-$5M in arbitration case due to the 2.84 and 3.36 ERA's the last two years, near the top in holds, a handful of saves and Type A free agent classification. That would be a hefty raise from the $2.3M he made in 2008.

But I looked a little further at contracts signed by set-up men and relievers last year and I probably guessed a little high.

Jeremy Affeldt - 2 years/$8M total

Juan Cruz - 2 years/$6M total (there's a $4M 2011 option or $500K buyout, so $6.5M guaranteed)

Kyle Farnsworth - 2 years/$8.75M (there's a $5.25M 2011 option or $500K buyout, so $9.25M guaranteed plus incentives that could earn him more)²

Joe Beimel - 1 year/$2M

Will Ohman - 1 year/$1.35M

Latroy Hawkins - 1 year/$3.5M

I think Affeldt might be the best comp for Grabow, coming off two good seasons before 2009 and in his first year of free agency and both pitchers don't show much of a disparity between getting righties or lefties out. So at the high end, we could expect Grabow to maybe get $4M in arbitration.

Considering that assumption and considering that relievers tend to be rather volatile from year-to-year, it would seem like a good idea to not tie yourself up to a multi-year offer if you don't have to unless you feel you're getting a pretty good discount or certain that Grabow could deliver two good seasons in a row. Now we don't know the contract specifics quite yet, but at an average of $3.75M per year, Hendry looks to be paying the top of the scale and doing it for two years now, when he probably could have gotten away with just one by offering arbitration. Now maybe the deal will be one of Hendry's famous back-loaded deals as the Cubs have money coming off the books next year, but I fail to see how the Cubs aren't doing anything but paying at the top of payscale range here for Grabow's services.

So then can the Cubs safely assume that he'll continue to pitch well the next two years? Well I certainly don't think you can assume that at all. His career ERA is 4.05 and his career FIP is 4.18 including 4.54 in 2008 and 4.20 in 2009 amidst the two seasons that will have earned him this new deal. That doesn't instill a lot of confidence in me that he can repeat what he's been doing, although that's not to say that he won't. It just indicates to me that Grabow is probably nothing special amongst his fraternity of relievers and not someone that warranted a multi-year deal. And when you have a player that isn't particularly special and have the opportunity to sign him to a one-year deal instead of two, I think you take that opportunity. Of course, the Cubs could have lost Grabow to free agency, but the potential of getting two extra draft picks is worth that risk.

1 - speaking of my left-handed bullpen crutch rant, this was Grabow's 2007 entry in Baseball Prospectus which I found on his PECOTA page. Now Grabow isn't what many would consider a LOOGY, but getting lefties out will be very much one of his primary roles on the team.

You can make a strong argument that no team needs a LOOGY. Mike Scioscia won 92 games and a division title in 2004 without having a lefty reliever on his team. LOOGies do more harm than good because they end up facing just as many righties than lefties as a result of walks and pinch-hitters, and take up precious roster space without providing enough innings

2 - Points and laughs at Royals

Final Cashner AFL Start Simply Indefensible

Arizona Phil — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 23:17:23 +0000

Nick Evans (NYM), Mike Moustakas (KC), and Colin Curtis (NYY) each crushed two-run homers, and Ian Kennedy (NYY) threw five innings of one-run ball, leading the Surprise Rafters to a 9-2 drubbing of the Mesa Solar Sox in Arizona Fall League action at HoHoKam Park in Mesa this afternoon, in what was Andrew Cashner's final AFL start.

box score

Cashner allowed three runs (two ER) on four hits and a walk, with three strikeouts, over his three innings of work, but he actually looked very good. He threw a shutout top of the 1st, issuing a one-out walk to Daniel Descalso (STL) and allowing an Ike Davis (NYM) two-out single through the box to CF (the ball went off a diving Starlin Castro's glove and trickled into CF, as Castro ranged far behind the 2nd base bag) around a ground out, a strikeout, and a fly out.

Cashner should have had an easy 1-2-3 2nd inning, getting an infield pop up, a weak ground ball to second, and a strikeout. But his defense let him down.

Third-baseman Casey Kelly (BOS) insisted on calling Starlin Castro off the infield pop up, and then proceeded to drop the ball behind the mound, allowing Mike Moustakas to reach base on an E-5. So with Moustakas at 1st and nobody out, Daryl Jones (STL) hit a routine ground ball to Solar Sox second-baseman Steve Singleton (MIN), who figured instead of taking the sure-out at 1st, maybe he should try and get the lead runner (Moustakas) at 2nd base. Unfortunately, it was a hit & run play, so Moustakas beat the throw to 2nd, allowing Jones to reach base on a FC

An exasperated Cashner decided he probably needed to get the outs himself, so he reared-back and threw a couple of 96 MPH heaters and a wipe-out slider past Bryan Anderson (STL), striking out the Rafters catcher. However, the next two batters (Ruben Tejada and Jarrod Dyson) ripped RBI hits, resulting in three runs scoring.

Cashner got out of the 2nd on a DP fly out to CF (Dyson was running on the pitch and he never stopped running), and then threw a shutout 3rd inning (lead-off single by Colin Curtis, followed by an Ike Davis strikeout and two pop ups). But because of the extra pitches he had to throw in the 2nd, Cashner was removed from the game after only three innings of work (63 pitches - 41 strikes).

Starlin Castro played SS and hit 2nd for the Solar Sox, and went 2-4 (raising his batting average to .387).

In his first AB in the bottom of the 1st inning, Castro laced a line-drive single to CF on the 1st pitch he saw, stole second, advanced to third on a bloop single to center, and scored on a bloop hit to LF. He was swinging first pitch again when he ripped an opposite-field single to RF with one out in the bottom of the 3rd, stole second (again), and advanced to third on a fly ball to CF, before being left stranded. He was retired on a lazy fly ball,(F-9) and topped out to third (outstanding barehand pick-up and throw by Rafters 3B Mike Moustakas, just barely nipping Castro at 1st) in his other two plate appearances.

Besides his activity at the plate, Castro also made the defensive play of the day, coming in full-speed behind the mound to grab a ball that was deflected by the pitcher, and then throwing out the batter (Nick Evans) by half-a-step.

Michael Brenly was the catcher today (with father Bob once again in attendance), and batted 9th. He fisted an RBI bloop double down the LF line in the bottom of the 7th, but grounded out weakly 3-U, 6-3, and 4-3 in his other three plate appearances.

LHP James Russell worked the top of the 9th for the Solar Sox and pitched another shutout inning, allowing just a lead-off 1st pitch opposite field single to Ike Davis, before retiring the side on a ground out (Castro's defensive gem) and two strikeouts (and both of Russell's strikeout victims were left-handed hitters). Russell has looked VERY good so far.

Josh Vitters did not play again today (he was a last-minute scratch yesterday), and RHP Blake Parker and LHP John Gaub are scheduled to work out of the bullpen tomorrow night at Scottsdale. Both Parker and Gaub are waiting to find out if they will be added to the Cubs 40-man roster (the deadline is Friday).

Phoenix Top Dog in AFL East

Arizona Phil — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 23:12:53 +0000

Danny Espinosa (WAS) had three hits and drove-in four runs and Josh Bell (BAL) cracked a three-run homer to cap a seven-run 4th, as the Phoenix Desert Dogs drubbed the Mesa Solar Sox 11-1 this afternoon at HoHoKam Park, clinching the AFL East crown and earning a berth in the 2009 AFL Championship Game versus the Peoria Javelinas next Saturday afternoon at Scottsdale Stadium.

box score

Starlin Castro (playing 2B and batting 2nd) and Josh Vitters (playing 3B and hitting 6th) were in the Solar Sox original starting lineup, but Vitters was a last-minute scratch. I don't know why Vitters was pulled, but he did suffer a muscle strain taking batting practice a couple of weeks ago, so perhaps that problem flared-up.

Castro got four AB, and went 1-4. He lined-out to the CF (laser-rope) in the bottom of the 1st, ripped a ground-single through the box into CF, stole 2nd, and advanced to 3rd on an overthrow in the third. grounded out 4-3 (outstanding stop & throw by Desert Dogs 2B Jemile Weeks) on a "bang-bang" play in the 5th, and popped out to 3rd on the first pitch he saw leading off the bottom of the 8th.

Andrew Cashner is scheduled to make his final AFL start for the Solar Sox tomorrow afternoon against the Surprise Rafters at HoHoKam Park.

Cubs' Top 10 Prospects by Baseball America & Minor League Free Agents

Rob G. — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 22:13:37 +0000

Baseball America has listed their top 10 Cubs prospects....drumroll please...

Starlin Castro
Brett Jackson
Josh Vitters
Andrew Cashner
Jay Jackson
Hak-Ju Lee
Logan Watkins
Chris Carpenter
Ryan Flaherty
D.J. LeMehieu

I was expecting Kyler Burke to make the list, but apparently repeating A ball justifiably knocked him down. You can compare and contrast with Arizona Phil's Top 15 list from last week. You can see past Baseball America top 10 lists for the Cubs over at Wiklifield.

Keeping with the minor league news, Arizona Phil has been keeping track of the Cubs minor league free agents on the right sidebar and there now appears to be an official list.

Chicago Cubs (11)

Pitchers: LHP Casey Fossum, RHP Vince Perkins, RHP Jose Pina

Catchers: Mark Johnson

Infielders: Matt Craig, Luis Rivas, Bobby Scales, Nate Spears

Outfielders: Doug Deeds, John-Ford Griffin, Brad Snyder

The only differences from Phil's list are C Robinson Chirinos and RHP Austin-Bibens-Dirx, so I assume they've already resigned with the Cubs. The 11 that have filed aren't goners yet though and can still resign with the Cubs. According to Phil's sidebar note, Cubs have exclusive negotiating rights until the MLB free agency filing period ends, which I believe is this Saturday.

A bit of nostalgia on the full list are some ex-Cubs including(and I'm sure I missed a few): Bobby Brownlie (Atlanta), Federico Baez (Cincinnati), Mark Bellhorn (Colorado), Ryan Harvey (Colorado), Lincoln Holdzkom (Pittsburgh), Juan Mateo (Pittsburgh), Rocky Cherry (San Diego), Shingo Takatsu (San Francisco), Jackson Melian (San Francisco), Josh Kroeger (Chicago White Sox), Michael Restovich (Chicago White Sox), Jason Waddell (Detroit), RIchie Robnett (NY Yankees), Jerome Williams (Oakland), and Buck Coats (Toronto).

Don't forget to enter the TCR Free Agent Frenzy contest...

Does Wells Deserve the Rookie of the Year?

Rob G. — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 18:30:07 +0000

I think they're on the verge of announcing the N.L. Rookie of the Year and Randy Wells was in the running for most of the season. Ultimately I don't think he'll get more than a few third place votes from the Chicago writers and I don't have much time to put together a full analysis, so I'm just going to lazily look at WAR values over at Fangraphs.

Randy Wells - 3.0

Garrett Jones - 2.6

J.A. Happ - 1.8

Chris Coghlan - 2.3

Andrew McCutchen - 3.4

Tommy Hanson - 2.6

Casey McGehee - 2.2

Colby Rasmus - 2.3

My guess is that it ends up Hanson, McCutchen, Happ by the voters and I would certainly encourage a more robust analysis than just WAR values, but there you have it. The Internet Baseball Awards voted Hanson the winner with Wells finishing 8th, for what it's worth.

On the AL side, Elvis Andrus and Rick Porcello seem to be getting the most press with Andrew Bailey also in the mix. Fangraphs has Andrus at 3.0 WAR, Porcello at 1.8 and Bailey at 2.4. Pitchers Jeff Niemann(3.2 WAR) and Brett Anderson(3.8 WAR) both surpass Porcello by WAR values but don't seem to be getting much hype. My guess is the voters give it to Porcello as most of Andrus's value came from his glove. Porcello got the nod at the Internet Baseball Awards.

Andrew Bailey wins the A.L. award with Andrus and Porcello finishing second and third. Chris Coghlan took the N.L. award. He was followed by Happ, Hanson, McCutchen, McGehee and then Wells finishing 6th.

TCR Friday Notes

Rob G. — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 17:15:24 +0000

A little under the weather and mourning the end of the Bears season, so some brief notes to hold you over for the weekend.

- To add fuel to my "they better offer Rich Harden arbitration" fire, the Seattle Times suggest the Mariners have some interest in Rich Harden as I imagine a few teams will.

- Our pal Alex Eisenberg at Baseball Intellect has a new premium article scouting left-handed pitcher James Paxton (drafted by the Blue Jays in the supplemental round in the 2009 draft). The video in the game is against LSU and there's three at-bats of D.J. LeMaheiu which he does a little breakdown of.

- Congrats to Carlos Zambrano on his third Silver Slugger award. I know Z gets a lot of heat for his Babe Ruth like swings and not worrying enough about his pitching, but I suggest if you have a problem with that you should go follow an AL team. Players like Carlos Zambrano is what makes the National League more fun.

- On the Curtis Granderson rumor front, MLBTR has a link up saying the Angels and Tigers have been talking...Granderson would presumably patrol left field.

- And now the greatest 4:30 minutes you'll watch this weekend, hat tip to Big League Stew for the find.

Enjoy the weekend!

Cubs Rumor Round-Up: Granderson, Bradley, Castillo, Grabow & Byrd

Rob G. — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 17:54:47 +0000

Let's try to filter through all the rumor reports from the GM meetings...

Milton Bradley

We know Hendry has talked to the Rays, Rangers, Blue Jays, Mets and Angels and really only the Rays and Rangers seem to be showing any real interest and both want the Cubs to pay a hefty portion of Bradley's remaining contract. The two most discussed names coming back were Pat Burrell or Kevin Millwood. For those that thought Aaron Rowand or Barry Zito's contract could get it done, Brian Sabean said he has absolutely no interest in acquiring Bradley.

Robothal's latest said the Rays and Cubs were talking again yesterday and were just $2-$3M apart, but then stirred up some quotes describing the discussions as "worse than Chinese water torture." and "I wish cattle prods were legal." And if the Cubs do get Burrell, they'll probably just have to pay some more to ship to another team as he'll unlikely be a Cub next year considering no one thinks he belongs in the outfield anymore.

One of our most trusted readers heard on the radio from Bruce Levine that a deal for Bradley should go down in the next 3-4 days.

Luis Castillo

There was the bogus three-team rumor of Bradley to the Blue Jays, Overbay to the Mets and Castillo to the Cubs. That was quickly shot down and the Mets say they want no part of Bradley, but Minaya did say he might talk to Hendry about Castillo. Castillo had a nice bounceback year with the bat in 2010 and is owed $6M in 2010 and 2011. He does walk at a friendly 10.8% rate for his career and that's been higher the last few seasons. UZR doesn't like his defense the last few seasons, but he was battling some leg injuries. As part of some package to move Bradley's contract, then it's a reasonable enough move, if it's going to cost the Cubs any decent minor league talent though and adding on Castillo's contract, I'd hope the Cubs would pass.

Marlon Byrd

It looks like the Cubs will make a run at Byrd when free agency opens and the Texas beat writer at MLB.com thinks it will take 3 years and between 18-24M to sign him, although he notes there isn't much demand for center fielders this year. That probably won't stop Hendry from offering Byrd exactly what he wants though. I ran through the numbers on Byrd yesterday, and he certainly wouldn't be a terrible player for the Cubs to pick up. I don't know about three years or $8M per, but he can handle all three defensive positions and brings a bit of power with him.

Curtis Granderson

The reports came out that the Tigers might look to try and trade guys like Edwin Jackson or Curtis Granderson to save a few bucks. Personally I think that either player is unlikely to get moved unless it's a package to rid themselves of one of their bad contracts in Dontrelle Willis, Magglio Ordonez or Nate Robertson. Nonetheless, Phil Rogers went nuts and said the Cubs must sell the fall the farm to get him. And don't get me wrong, I'd love to have Granderson on the Cubs. He plays pretty damn good defense, hit 20-30 HR's in Comerica Park the last few years and walks over 10% of the time and will be 29 next year. On the downside, he strikes out a ton and is basically a black hole versus lefties (.540 OPS against lefties versus .940 against righties over the last 3 years). His contract owes him just $5.5M in 2010 and then goes to $8.25M, $10M, and a $13M club option with $2M buyout in 2013. That option goes up if he hits various incentives though.

But, I don't know how available Granderson is yet and we don't know the market. As I said, Tigers would probably love to package one of their bad contracts with him and get a boatload of major league ready talent if they could and neither of that really fits what the Cubs have to offer which is mostly low level minor leaguers with lots of upside. I guess the Cubs could start offering Carlos Marmol or Geovany Soto, but obviously that's doubtful. Dombrowski and Hendry do seem to have a pretty good dialogue and relationship, so I'm sure the Cubs will at least approach the idea.

John Grabow

It appears destined the Cubs will sign him to an extension in the 2/7.5M range, probably with some sort of third year option. I'm pretty indifferent to the whole matter. Grabow was good for the Cubs last year and he's can get both lefties and righties out. On the other hand, he's a bit walk happy and I don't know if you should being committing dollars to the bullpen so soon with other holes to fill and likely plenty of talent still available in February and March.

If we were to believe the GM Meetings rumors, there's the possibility that this is your Cubs lineup next year.

Castillo 2B, Fukudome RF, Lee 1B, Ramirez 3B, Byrd CF, Soriano LF, Soto C, Theriot SS

Anticipated Pitching Duel Fizzles into Slugfest at HoHoKam

Arizona Phil — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 23:24:20 +0000

With two of the AFL's top starting pitchers on the hill, naturally the game turned into a slugfest, as the Mesa Solar Sox scored eight unanswered runs in the middle innings to overcome a 4-0 deficit, only to blow a four-run 8th inning lead, before scoring the game-winning run on a two-out single in the bottom of the 9th, en route to a 9-8 victory over Surprise Rafters in Arizona Fall League action this afternoon at HoHoKam Park in Mesa.

(And next time you come by, bring my stomach!)...

box score

Cubs RHP Andrew Cashner got the start for the Solar Sox, and went just three innings. He left a lot of his pitches up in the zone, allowing four runs on seven hits (including three doubles and a home run) in what was his worst outing of the 2009 AFL season.

Ike Davis (Mets 2008 1st round pick out of Arizona State) was Cashner's main tormentor, ripping a two-run double into the right-field corner in the the top of the 1st, and a two-run homer over the right-centerfield fence in the top of the 3rd, as the Rafters took an early 4-0 lead.

Cashner did strike out five and walked just one, but he had to throw 69 pitches (44 strikes) to get through his three innings.

Meanwhile, Rafters RHP Ian Kennedy (NYY) sailed through his first four innings, before falling apart in the bottom of the 5th. Like Cashner, Kennedy allowed four runs on seven hits, although at least he was able to get one out in the 5th before he was relieved. .

Red Sox CF Ryan Kalish clubbed a three-run homer off Yankees LHP Michael Dunn to cap the five-run Mesa 5th, and then the Solar Sox added two more runs in the 7th, one of the runs scoring on a Josh Vitters RBI single.

Vitters returned to the Mesa lineup today as the Solar Sox DH, having missing five games after suffering a muscle strain while taking BP last week.

Vitters grounded out to short in the 2nd, popped up to the catcher in the 4th, and lofted a singled over the third-baseman's head in the 5th, before ripping his RBI single to left in the 7th. (Vitters was called out for interfering with the catcher's throw to 2nd on a stolen base attempt in the bottom of the 9th--a VERY questionable call by the ump--leaving him 2-5 for the day).

The Solar Sox took their 8-4 lead into the top of the 8th, but Doug Hogan (TEX) clubbed a two-run home run over the scoreboard beyond the fence in LF off Red Sox LHP Dustin Richardson to narrow the gap to 8-6, and then Cubs RHP Blake Parker blew the save, surrendering a towering game-tying two-run home run to Yankees 3B Brandon Laird off the light-standard in left-center with one out in the top of the 9th. Parker struck out two (including Ike Davis) in his one inning, while walking one and allowing the game-tying HR.

The Solar Sox pushed across the winning run in the bottom of the 9th, on a two-out RBI single by Cuban defector SS Jose Iglesias (BOS) following a walk and a single (overcoming the Vitters interference play), edging the Rafters 9-8.

Michael Brenly entered the game as a pinch-runner in the bottom of the 7th, as Hank Conger (LAA) pulled up lame at 3rd base, and scored on the Vitters RBI single. Brenly then stayed in the game at catcher, and grounded out 6-3 in his one AB in the 8th.

Starlin Castro had the day off, although he and Angels OF P. J. Phillips alternated as the Solar Sox 1st base coach (good experience for when their playing careers are over).

LHPs John Gaub and James Russell threw yesterday at Surprise, and Gaub had a very bad outing, immediately walking the bases loaded and throwing a WP after entering the game in relief, before allowing an F-9 SF and an RBI single. Gaub was yanked out of the game after retiring only two hitters and throwing 26 pitches (only ten strikes).

If it's possible to pitch yourself off the 40-man roster by throwing piss-poor in the AFL, Gaub might be doing just that. Now, I personally do not believe what Gaub does in the AFL should have a bearing on whether he is added to the 40 on 11/20, but it might influence Jim Hendry.

Remember, Donald Veal appeared to be a virtual "lock" to get added to the Cubs 40-man roster this time last year, but then he stunk it up in the AFL, got left off the 40-man roster, and was selected by Pittsburgh in the December 2009 Rule 5 Draft. (And Veal has been the best pitcher in the AFL so far this year, too).

Although Gaub had a poor outing yesterday, James Russell had another fine one, throwing 1.1 IP of shutout ball for Mesa in relief of Gaub. The 21-year old Russell has now thrown 9.1 innings of four-hit shutout ball (2/7 BB/K) over his last eight appearances for the Solar Sox.

Cubs Potential Offseason Targets: Randy Winn or Marlon Byrd

Rob G. — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 14:30:44 +0000

I had to take a break from the series last week cause of that annoying paying job that I jeopardize every day spending way too much time here on TCR. So I'm gonna double up the efforts and today we look at some more potential center field candidates. Let's start with Randy Winn.

Year	Age	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
1998	24	TBD	109	379	338	51	94	9	9	1	17	26	12	29	69	.278	.337	.367	.704	83
1999	25	TBD	79	324	303	44	81	16	4	2	24	9	9	17	63	.267	.307	.366	.673	71
2000	26	TBD	51	190	159	28	40	5	0	1	16	6	7	26	25	.252	.362	.302	.664	72
2001	27	TBD	128	480	429	54	117	25	6	6	50	12	10	38	81	.273	.339	.401	.740	97
2002	28	TBD	152	674	607	87	181	39	9	14	75	27	8	55	109	.298	.360	.461	.821	120
2003	29	SEA	157	660	600	103	177	37	4	11	75	23	5	41	108	.295	.346	.425	.771	107
2004	30	SEA	157	703	626	84	179	34	6	14	81	21	7	53	98	.286	.346	.427	.772	103
2005	31	TOT	160	683	617	85	189	47	6	20	63	19	11	48	91	.306	.360	.499	.859	128
2005	31	SEA	102	436	386	46	106	25	1	6	37	12	6	37	53	.275	.342	.391	.733	100
2005	31	SFG	58	247	231	39	83	22	5	14	26	7	5	11	38	.359	.391	.680	1.071	173
2006	32	SFG	149	635	573	82	150	34	5	11	56	10	8	48	63	.262	.324	.396	.721	84
2007	33	SFG	155	653	593	73	178	42	1	14	65	15	3	44	85	.300	.353	.445	.798	104
2008	34	SFG	155	667	598	84	183	38	2	10	64	25	2	59	88	.306	.363	.426	.790	105
2009	35	SFG	149	597	538	65	141	33	5	2	51	16	2	47	93	.262	.318	.353	.671	75
TBD (5 yrs)			519	2047	1836	264	513	94	28	24	182	80	46	165	347	.279	.342	.400	.743	95
SFG (5 yrs)			666	2799	2533	343	735	169	18	51	262	73	20	209	367	.290	.345	.432	.776	100
SEA (3 yrs)			416	1799	1612	233	462	96	11	31	193	56	18	131	259	.287	.345	.417	.762	104
AL (8 yrs)			935	3846	3448	497	975	190	39	55	375	136	64	296	606	.283	.343	.408	.752	99
NL (5 yrs)			666	2799	2533	343	735	169	18	51	262	73	20	209	367	.290	.345	.432	.776	100

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/10/2009.

It's gonna be hard to get excited about a guy with a .262//318/353 slash line last season. You can't even attribute it to an unlucky BABIP as it was .314 last year. No, his power disappeared hitting just two home runs after a healthy stretch of double digits. He did hit a measly 1.4% of HR/FB which is Ryan Theriot 2007/2008 low, so maybe there's a little bounceback (7.8% in his career albeit steadily declining).

Defensively, his UZR remains excellent over the last few seasons, as does his Rate2 and the Fan's Scouting Report considers him above average. Unfortunately most of that has been in right field and with the declining stolen base numbers you have to think he may not have the range for center, even in the cozy Wrigley Field confines.

While the novelty of a reunion between the player the Rays traded to get Lou Piniella and Lou would be a neat angle for the papers, I assume the Cubs will pass on the soon-to-be 36 year old. Despite his switch-hitting ability and potential leadoff qualities, his stolen base numbers are merely okay and he only walks 8% of the time and sees well under 4 pitches per plate appearance, so I don't think this would be much of a match for the Cubs.

Year	Age	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
2002	24	PHI	10	36	35	2	8	2	0	1	1	0	2	1	8	.229	.250	.371	.621	66
2003	25	PHI	135	553	495	86	150	28	4	7	45	11	1	44	94	.303	.366	.418	.784	111
2004	26	PHI	106	378	346	48	79	13	2	5	33	2	2	22	68	.228	.287	.321	.608	54
2005	27	TOT	79	259	229	20	61	15	2	2	26	5	1	19	50	.266	.323	.376	.698	87
2005	27	PHI	5	15	13	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	.308	.400	.308	.708	86
2005	27	WSN	74	244	216	20	57	15	2	2	26	5	1	18	47	.264	.318	.380	.698	87
2006	28	WSN	78	228	197	28	44	8	1	5	18	3	3	22	47	.223	.317	.350	.667	76
2007	29	TEX	109	454	414	60	127	17	8	10	70	5	3	29	88	.307	.355	.459	.814	112
2008	30	TEX	122	462	403	70	120	28	4	10	53	7	2	46	62	.298	.380	.462	.842	121
2009	31	TEX	146	599	547	66	155	43	2	20	89	8	4	32	98	.283	.329	.479	.808	106
8 Seasons			785	2969	2666	380	744	154	23	60	335	41	18	215	515	.279	.340	.422	.762	99
PHI (4 yrs)			256	982	889	136	241	43	6	13	79	13	5	68	173	.271	.332	.377	.709	86
TEX (3 yrs)			377	1515	1364	196	402	88	14	40	212	20	9	107	248	.295	.352	.468	.820	112
WSN (2 yrs)			152	472	413	48	101	23	3	7	44	8	4	40	94	.245	.318	.366	.683	82
NL (5 yrs)			408	1454	1302	184	342	66	9	20	123	21	9	108	267	.263	.327	.373	.701	85
AL (3 yrs)			377	1515	1364	196	402	88	14	40	212	20	9	107	248	.295	.352	.468	.820	112

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/10/2009.

The rumors flooded the TCR newsroom yesterday (i.e. Google Reader) with the Cubs targeting Marlon Byrd as their potential new center fielder. When I made a cursory list of guys I might look at it in this series, Byrd was on the radar as a potential 4th outfielder, but leave it to Jim Hendry and the Cubs to make him a top priority.

Anyway, Byrd was a top prospect in the Phillies system, one of the top prospects in the game at the time, but fizzled out before the Phillies gave up on him and moved him to the Nationals for Endy Chavez. It didn't go much better for him there, but then Texas gave him a shot and whether it was Rudy Jamarillo or the Ballpark or fate, he bounced back with three solid, albeit unspectacular seasons in Texas.

2007-2009 splits (courtesy of Baseball Musings Day-by-Database and ESPN.com):

Home: 309/375/522 with a HR every 27.20 AB

Road: 281/321/414 with a HR every 45.60 AB

vs. LHP: 277/336/462 with a HR every 28.93 AB

vs. RHP: 302/359/470 with a HR every 36.89 AB

It isn't like Wrigley isn't friendly as well, but those home/road splits have to be a little worrisome. His lefty vs righty splits aren't too pronounced, actually showing a bit of a reverse split so the Cubs need not worry about matchups too much.

Now one of the things the Cubs are said to be looking for is a run-producer/RBI guy and Byrd did have some decent RBI totals the last 3 years, particularly relative to his plate appearances. That included driving in 17.9% of the runners on base when he got up in 2009 which is an above average mark along with 18.4% in 2007, but just 12.5% in 2008, so you can see how volatile and unreliable hitting with runners on can be.

Defensively, he had a UZR/150 of 10.9, 10.9 and -2.8 over the last three years while bouncing around all three outfield spots, so it's tough to say from that if he'll be much of an improvement in center field. BP is kinder to him in LF and RF (109 and 107) then in CF( 95) for his career using Rate2, but it all suffers from small sample size issues as does UZR. The Fan's Scouting Report seemed to consider him as just a bit above average over the last three years.

He did walk an abysmal 5.5% of the time in 2009 which isn't too far off from his 7.5% career mark...both of which are below the standards I'd like to see the Cubs employ. The Cubs pursuit of Byrd shouldn't come as too much of a shock as they tried to acquire him for Matt Murton last season but were rebuffed, so obviously they've believed in skills for awhile. I guess we'll see how this unravels, but I'd probably prefer Mike Cameron on a one year deal (if that is in the cards) over Byrd and a likely multi-year deal, but I don't think we know the market yet for either player.

Check out Arizona Phil's Top 15 Cubs Prospects and enter our TCR Free Agent Frenzy Contest.

TCR Free Agent Frenzy 2010

Rob G. — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 21:14:51 +0000

Once again we piggyback on MLB.com's Free Agent Frenzy contest. MLB picks the 15 free agents, you pick the team and then rank them by confidence levels, 15 being the most confident, 1 being the least confident. The submission form is after the jump, otherwise you can follow this link. Be sure to include your name on the bottom and include your email if you want me to contact you directly and don't check the site all the time. The form will not check for duplicate confidence value points, so please check your work (I recommend writing them down first). Entries will be closed on November 23rd at 4pm CST like the official contest OR when the first free agent from the list signs. Whichever comes first. Good luck.

Bill James 2010 Projections for Cubs

Rob G. — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 17:44:58 +0000

Fangraphs is once again going to list the projections on their player pages from a variety of sources, Bill James, CHONE, Marcel....maybe more. Bill James projections are up first and here's how the Cubs ranked by wOBA and their 2009 wOBA (explanation of wOBA here). I'll try and expand when new projections are released. Age is their 2010 playing age. You can click on their names to get their full slash line predictions and more.

Player	Age	2009 wOBA	Bill James 2010 wOBA Projection
Derrek Lee	34	.412	.386
Aramis Ramirez	32	.392	.375
Jake Fox	27	.332	.375
Milton Bradley	32	.345	.365
Geovany Soto	27	.310	.362
Micah Hoffpauir	30	.315	.350
Kosuke Fukudome	33	.346	.349
Jeff Baker	29	.338	346
Alfonso Soriano	34	.314	.346
Mike Fontenot	30	.296	.334
Ryan Theriot	30	.318	.319
Sam Fuld	28	.367	.317
Tyler Colvin	24	.205	.316
Reed Johnson	33	.321	.312
Aaron Miles	33	.212	.300
Koyie Hill	31	.279	.289
Andres Blanco	26	.271	.285

For the pitchers, here's their projected ERA and FIP (explanation of FIP here).

Player	Age	2009 ERA	2009 FIP	2010 James Projected ERA	2010 James Projected FIP
Carlos Zambrano	29	3.77	3.61	3.60	3.90
Ted Lilly	34	3.10	3.65	3.76	4.30
Ryan Dempster	33	3.65	3.87	3.83	3.92
Randy Wells	27	3.05	3.88	4.16	4.10
Sean Marshall	27	4.32	4.19	4.06	4.34
Tom Gorzelanny	27	5.55	3.91	4.11	4.01
Jeff Samardzija	25	7.53	5.90	5.44	5.47
Carlos Marmol	27	3.41	4.06	3.45	4.00
John Grabow	31	3.36	4.20	4.00	4.17
Aaron Heilman	31	4.11	4.37	3.88	4.25
Angel Guzman	28	2.95	4.44	4.03	4.11

Alright, nothing too surprising in any of these numbers, although I can't tell you how much it makes my heart flutter to see the Cubs highest paid position player in the middle of the offensive pack.

Two pitchers stood out to me...Gorzelanny and Guzman. I was a bit down on Gorzelanny but his peripherals were pretty strong last year...9 K/9 rate and a 1.15 HR/9 to go with a 3.26 BB/9 rate. Definitely a legitimate 4th/5th starter candidate with an even higher ceiling considering his age and the very nice 2007 season he had. Guzman on the other hand, had a mere 6.93 K/9 rate last year with a 3.39 BB/9 rate with a miniscule .209 BABIP. A little luckier than I had previously thought, but he does keep the ball in the park and the James projections do expect an increase in his K/9 rate...although no guess on when he'll hit the disabled list.

Anyway, they're merely projections, nothing to take too seriously. They sure didn't nail Soto, Soriano or Fontenot's demise last year, so just consider it some fun off-season fodder.

Be sure you don't miss Arizona Phil's Top 15 prospect list...