TF Metals Report

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, September 8

info@tfmetalsreport.com (TF Metals Report) — Tue, 08 Sep 2026 16:52:00 -0400

With TF

Some late day headlines out of the Persian Gulf spiked crude oil and drove the PMs to their lows of the day, which is unfortunate because through the Comex close, we had been having an OK day.

But when the Comex closes and volume dries up, small ripples can create big waves and that's what we had this afternoon.

For today, a discussion of all this and then these images:...

Short But Busy Week

info@tfmetalsreport.com (TF Metals Report) — Tue, 08 Sep 2026 10:09:23 -0400

By TF

39 Comments | 23 Likes

It's always nice to begin the new week on Tuesday as it shortens the work week considerably. However, we still have a very busy week on our hands that will be backloaded with economic data ahead of the September FOMC meeting that will take place next week.

So, anyway, welcome back from the three-day weekend. Mine included a quick trip to Chicago, where I was able to escape with my...

TFMR "Podcast" - Friday, September 4

info@tfmetalsreport.com (TF Metals Report) — Fri, 04 Sep 2026 15:38:00 -0400

By TF

125 Comments | 24 Likes

As you know, my schedule is such today that there's no time for a spoken podcast. Instead, here's a written "podcast" that shall serve as your open thread all through the holiday weekend.

As I type, though, "the markets" are still open. However, volume is very light and mainly algo-driven so let's hope that the price charts you see below will be relatively close to where things ended...

Whatever

info@tfmetalsreport.com (TF Metals Report) — Fri, 04 Sep 2026 10:14:21 -0400

By TF

21 Comments | 20 Likes

In a (not so) stunning development, today's BLSBS came in 3X above the average expectation. What other datapoint is routinely able to pull that off? But, whatever. Let's get the rate hoke over with so that we can begin to concentrate on other matters.

And, as I type, neither PM is down as much as it was up yesterday. Down on the week now, yes, but still above $4400 in CDG and $66 in...

TFMR Podcast - Thursday, September 3

info@tfmetalsreport.com (TF Metals Report) — Thu, 03 Sep 2026 17:23:38 -0400

With TF

64 Comments | 15 Likes

It was a great day the big yentervention and the comments from Goon Waller led to a sharp selloff in the POSX and a rally in bonds. The subsequent rally in the PMs brought both back to UNCH on the week and that's nice....but totally meaningless ahead of the most important BLSBS that we've had in some time.

So let's go! Let's get ready by discussing all of the implications in this...

45 Degrees Of Yentervention

info@tfmetalsreport.com (TF Metals Report) — Thu, 03 Sep 2026 10:07:40 -0400

By TF

50 Comments | 19 Likes

Another massive yentervention overnight...plus some dovish comments from Goon Waller...have deflated the POSX this morning and led to a sharp rally in both CDG and CDS. That's all very nice, of course, but The Big Show remains tomorrow with the BLSBS.

Let's start with that yentervention. Here's a ZH summary:...

TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, September 2

info@tfmetalsreport.com (TF Metals Report) — Wed, 02 Sep 2026 13:15:00 -0400

With TF

41 Comments | 20 Likes

After being away from home for ten days, your host has no shortage of stuff to do so let's get on with it b y recording and posting today's podcast a little earlier than usual.

It's just before 1:00 pm ET as I record, which means that the Comex is still open. However, it appears that most of the action for today has already taken place and the algos have taken over in a typical, pre-...

ADP Points The Way?

info@tfmetalsreport.com (TF Metals Report) — Wed, 02 Sep 2026 10:00:00 -0400

By TF

40 Comments | 20 Likes

Over the years, there has been debate as to whether or not the ADP jobs report is in any way predictive of what the BLSBS will bring later in the week. That said, when we combine today's ADP with yesterday's JOLTS, have we gotten a signal of what's to come on Friday?

Let's start with ADP. It came in under expectations with just 38,000 "new jobs":

Now combine that with this,...

Traveling Tuesday

info@tfmetalsreport.com (TF Metals Report) — Tue, 01 Sep 2026 08:00:00 -0400

By TF

70 Comments | 23 Likes

After a week of Baby Watch, Baby Warning and Baby Aftermath, it's time to head back to Turdfork. It's going to be a long day of travel for yours truly so here's a post of audio, video and text that will serve as your thread for the day.

Let's start with a reminder that there are some significant datapoints on the way this morning. The manufacturing sector PMIs lead us off at 9:45 and...

TFMR Podcast - Monday, August 31

info@tfmetalsreport.com (TF Metals Report) — Mon, 31 Aug 2026 17:11:55 -0400

With TF

30 Comments | 19 Likes

The month of August comes to a close with very very big and very green candles on the monthly charts. But tomorrow is a new day and a new month so we'll have to be ready for just about anything, particularly when the closely-watched JOLTS report gets released at 10:00 ET.

For today, though, let's just enjoy and appreciate the month that was...

Gold up 10%

August Ends

info@tfmetalsreport.com (TF Metals Report) — Mon, 31 Aug 2026 10:20:09 -0400

By TF

22 Comments | 21 Likes

When August began, I promised you a month that would not bring the usual "dog days". As the month finally comes to an end today, we will print some great monthly charts with big, green candles, despite the selling of last Friday.

And there's selling on Comex again today, at least through the first 90 minutes of trading. We had actually seen a positive session in London but, once NY...

TFMR Podcast - Friday, August 28

info@tfmetalsreport.com (TF Metals Report) — Fri, 28 Aug 2026 17:46:00 -0400

With TF

123 Comments | 26 Likes

We expected Warsh to play "Mr Gravitas" today in front of his central bank buddies. What we didn't expect was for the markets to fall for it again in the form of a bond market selloff, a rally in the POSX and a major shift in September rate hike expectations. All of which combined to create the perfect late summer environment for a steep selloff in the Comex PMs.

So, anyway, there's...

Kev At The Jackson Holedown

info@tfmetalsreport.com (TF Metals Report) — Fri, 28 Aug 2026 09:33:08 -0400

By TF

73 Comments | 22 Likes

We've made it to Friday and it appears that my plan to get into some silver calls may not come together as I had hoped. Oh well, that's fine with me as CDS finally soars through $70 ahead of Kev's speech at Jackson Hole, which is set to begin at 10:00 ET.

Let's start there. Here's an embed so that you can watch Kev give his best "I'm an inflation fighter" impression:

This...

It's Baby Day!

info@tfmetalsreport.com (TF Metals Report) — Thu, 27 Aug 2026 09:18:00 -0400

By TF

86 Comments | 36 Likes

Well, it appears that the time has finally come and the baby is going to make August 27 his birth day. As such, just this brief update.

First things first....LT#1 began having regular contractions last evening and then headed for the hospital at about 11:00 pm. This was very important timing as it allowed yours truly an opportunity to get a regular night's sleep! As of the latest...

TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, August 26

info@tfmetalsreport.com (TF Metals Report) — Wed, 26 Aug 2026 15:53:36 -0400

With TF

27 Comments | 22 Likes

A slightly hotter than expected CPE report was seized upon by the algos today and used as fodder for a rally in the POSX and selling in the PMs. While it's always frustrating to see red on the screen, the week is seeming to play out as expected so far as your host waits for an opportunity to purchase some leverage for the months ahead.

Not a whole lot to discuss that we haven't...