TG's India Long Term picks

Important Update & Next Picks - 22 Jan 2008

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 21 Jan 2008 22:29:00 +0000

Friends,

So we have just seen a Mega drop in the markets. I believe this is nothing to worry about. All the stocks that we picked on this blog are still in profits.

Additionally this is a right time to BUY as the growth story has not gone away.

As expected the markets went through a good level of correction, possibly leaving some of your investments in the RED.

I believe that the markets should now bounce back from this level. I do not see a lot of downside left (at the most there might be another slow correction) in the market. The fact that the US might have a Fed rate cut to boost their economy will only bear good impact on our markets plus the strength of our economy is contact.

I am inclined to enter the market at the current levels and suggest to increase your portfolio size by at least 20% at this stage (if your portofilo size today is 1 lac then buy into the market with another 20K).

Next Pick
1. ICICI Bank - At current levels of INR 1173.
This is a long term story. Just buy it and forget it for more than a year. The reasons that justify this are that it's ICICI Direct business is looking at value unlocking by offering 15% of the companies stocks as an IPO later this year (ICICI Bank will continue to hold the remaining 85% of ICICI Direct post IPO). They might then look private equity placements which will only increase the value for ICICI Bank. It must not be forgotten that their Insurance business (Prudential ICICI) is still unlisted where they hold a 74% stake and the ICICI Financial Services business.

2. Reliance Petroleum - At current levels of INR 171.
This a good opportunity for you to increase your stake in the company, if you have held some since lower levels. For new investors this can serve as an entry level as well, the stock must see good levels later this year.

3. In fact I do not mind adding some more of ISPAT at this level (INR 43.80), as my entry price is low and the story in ISPAT is still intact.

Important Note
I will now change the frequency of postings from frequent to in-frequent to ensure that this remains a pure long term picks only blog.

There will be no more short term pick calls on this blog but as and when there is a good long term story that I find it will be notified on this blog. The only thing I can say is that investing larger sums for longer terms has proved to be more beneficial than small amounts for shorter terms, especially for people like us who have a full time job to do.

Final word
I would repeat that 'do not let **ALL** your money rot in the bank. Risk it to give it a chance to grow' and 'do not sit on profits endlessly expecting to see them going in only in UPWARD direction', book profits whenever you have made a 20% profit to some percentage of the holding.

Cheers
Tarun

P.S
I hope once we tide over the current fall, you will ensure that the 5% of profits you made from this blog is put to a good cause before the end of this financial year.

General/Performance update - 08 Jan 2008

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 07 Jan 2008 22:59:00 +0000

Friends,

The markets seem to be taking a breather and I feel that it had all warmed up a little too much recently. There might be a correction due on the cards.

Crude Oil above $100 will hit us all very badly. I guess the fuel prices are going up in India, although the government is doing it's best to keep the rise low owing to the general elections.

Energy needs across the globe are going up much faster than the growth in supply. In fact the demand is much higher than the supply and thus driving the prices towards the roof. This is why you are noticing so much hum-drum around energy companies. The growing infrastructure in India will only widen the gap between supply and demand. Which means the energy sector will remain in favor for a few years to come.

Performance Update
FORTIS Healthcare is on the run. GTL Infrastructure has already yielded more than 70%. ISPAT is taking a breather at 450% return. SUPREME Petrochem is having a breather as well at 54% return. UNITECH is at 92% return and KEC is picking up. MERCATOR is going strong. POWERGRID is stagnant at 150 levels.

Strategy ahead
As part of wise inestment strategy, all of us should know our personal targets. DO NOT sit on profits endlessly assuming that the stocks will keep going up endlessly. Review your portfolio every week/fortnight/month and book profits as you feel comfortable.

I personally attempt freeing up my capital as soon as the stock has given me more than 50% profits as that means the 50%-60%stocks remaining after freeing up my capital are at no cost to me.

I would be inclined to book partial profits (25%-40%) in Supreme Petrochem. Booking profits frees up money to invest in more lucrative opportunities.

Planning for Kids/Family members
When you realise a need for lumpsum money at a future date a few years ahead, the easiest trap in the Indian markets are insurance products that give you cashback. In turn these products invest the money in markets and other instruments to give the money promised but the return given to you is much lower than what you could make on your own.

A good option would be to regularly buy mutual funds. Assuming a INR 2000 investment per month for 20 years (20 x 12 x 2000 = 4,80,000), you could easily be sitting on over Rs. 1 Crore by that time. Can any of the Insurance products beat that? No, none that I know.

So go ahead and start making sense of Mutual Funds, as they are just the right thing for low risk investment with lucrative returns.

I will attempt to post a note on the basics of mutual funds in future to help you understand their working.

Finally, just to re-iterate ** DO NOT sit on profits endlessly assuming that the stocks will keep going up endlessly **.

Cheers
Tarun

Reliance Power IPO

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 00:01:00 +0000

Friends,

Another important one, this is the mother of all IPO's type IPO, a decent way to come under the Reliance umbrella. This is India's biggest IPO ever.

Do not miss applying for the upcoming Reliance Power IPO, details below.

Tentative details
Price band     : Rs. 405 to Rs. 450
Our limit       : Rs. 1 Lac (application limit for retail investors)
Dates            : Jan 15 - Jan 18 (Year 2008)
5% discount   : The Company might add a 5% discount for retail investors over final price

Reliance Power is developing 13 power projects over the next 5 years. The first one among them will start operations towards the end of 2009.

It is interesting to note that a staggered payment option is probably being offered as well. You can read more details here.

Recommendation
Put in as many applications as possible at Cut-off price (the limit being 1 Lac per head).

I hope we do get allotted some in this IPO.

Cheers
Tarun

BGR Energy listing.

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 02 Jan 2008 23:52:00 +0000

Friends,

Those of you who were lucky to have been allotted any shares of BGR Energy, please note that the ** listing date is today, 03 Jan 2008 **.

As mentioned earlier it is expected to list above Rs. 750/- levels. My suggested strategy would be to ** free up your capital ** so that you can use it for upcoming public offers.

BSE Script Code: 532930
NSE Symbol: BGRENERGY

Cheers
Tarun

BGR Energy IPO Allotment Status

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 27 Dec 2007 10:43:00 +0000

Friends,

The IPO allotment for BGR energy has been completed.
The status can be viewed at http://www.intimespectrum.com/site/ipo.asp

I am not the lucky one this time, none allotted to me (even after a 94K application).

Those of you who get lucky with the allotment, the stock is expected to list above INR750 (a neat profit in excess of 65%). I would suggest freeing up your investment by selling 40% of your shares and then keep the rest to see how it fares in future.

BUYING it at 750+ levels is something that I would **NOT** recommend (there are better stock stories out there to put that money into).

Cheers
Tarun

Important Updates - 24 Dec 2007

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 24 Dec 2007 03:09:00 +0000

Friends,

Good Morning in India.

While it gets close to the freezing point every day in London, the stock markets in India seem to be feeling it as well. Anyway the last few days of December tend to be like that sometimes.

NEXT PICK
To start with my next LONG TERM pick is "KEC International". It has a good story behind it and will come out very good colors in under 2 years. In the meantime if the stock goes through a split then we will be sitting on huge gains. I would recommend an entry into the counter at the current levels of INR850. One can begin with an INR 10,000 investment.

YOUR TAX PLANNING
This is the time when the Tax saving mutual funds start doling out Dividends to woo customers. Let me explain in brief, the whole mechanism.

Assuming you buy Sundaram Tax Saver for INR20000 at INR44 per unit. You get INR20000/44 = 454.54 units. If you are in the 30% tax bracket you can claim a tax rebate of INR 6ooo. This will mean that your cost becomes INR 20,000 – INR 6,000 = INR 14,000.

If the fund declares a 30% dividend, you get 454 x 3 = INR 1,362 paid by the fund into your account. Which means in the end you actually parted with only INR 20,000 – (6000 + 1362) = Just over INR 12000.

If you were to believe me, this INR12000 over the next 3 years lock period will give you at least 25000 – 30000 in return. So go ahead and make your tax savings now.

My picks for ELSS are Principal Tax Saver, Sundaram Tax Saver and SBI Magnum Tax Gain.

TRACK THE WORLD
As a lot of you will know, the Indian markets take clues from the other world markets. As an informed investor you must know what’s happening around the world. To enable you keep an eye on the world markets performance, I have now added a Market Watch chart on the blog (showb below) . You can add the blog as a 'Favorite' to your browser for a single click access to track the world.

FINALLY, SPREAD THE WORD
One of the main objectives that I set out with, was to create more minds/hands that would contribute to the society 5% profits that they make from this blog. To keep that going I would like to find more people who would be willing to do just that.

It will do everybody a lot of good if you forward this to a friend(s), who you feel will contribute to the objective.

Please do NOT plain forward this, but do add a personal comment to make it more appealing to the friend.

Cheers
Tarun

Important Updates - 17 Dec 2007.

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 17 Dec 2007 01:03:00 +0000

Hello Friends,

Here are a few general updates and a few Tax planning tips for all of you.

1. As expected BGR energy has been highly oversubscribed (112 times in all of which the retail portion is 46 times). We can now safely revise our profit and sell targets. Sell 50% only on listing day as the profits will be close to or more than 100%. The stock is supposed to be listed around 15 Jan 2008.

2. FORTIS HEALTHCARE has started buzzing, it has crossed 102 levels. I believe that if it breaches 108-110 levels then you can look adding more from a long term perspective.

3. ISPAT is doing wonders for you. The stock is likely to reach 100 levels in under 6 months level. Those of you who have a low entry price can look at adding some more at these levels.

4. Reliance Power IPO expected towards end of Q1 2008. Make sure you have money hanging around for this then.

5. Hotel stocks finding favour of the market.

6. Find a banking stock to buy for 2009, when the banking industry is completely opened to the world. I am analysing a few at the moment.

7. If you are aware, the size of savings last year by Indian residents was close to a Trillion rupees and at the rate that the economy is growing we need more financial companies to manage the money (not just savings but the whole financial framework) and hence it makes sense to keep stocks of a good financial powerhouse. I am analysing a few at the moment.

Since it is the tax declaration season for most of you in India it is about the right time for me to tell you a few important things.

1. Do invest in ELSS (Tax saving mutual funds). My favourites have been HDFC Taxsaver and SBI Magnum Taxgain, both growth option. Do remember that the money is locked for 3 years only after which you can invest the same money back and claim Tax rebate again. SO do this regaularly for 3 years and you will have a cycle of money being released every year that you can re-invest and claim Tax rebate. Buy MF’s on a day when the market is falling (place your BUY order before 1300 hrs to reap the benefits of the falling market)

2. Stick with LIC/ICICI for all your insurance policies as these are the best among Public/Private companies and at least that is what I would do.

3. It is a MUST for everyone to buy a pension policy. Believe me none of us ever plan for our old age and are suddenly taken aback financially when we reach there. You MUST buy a pension policy NOW (never mind what age you are) Buy the pension policy with ZERO DEATH BENEFIT. The pension policy gets you a tax rebate again.

4. All your income from shares is taxable. As per the law it is your duty to show your income from shares on your IT return and pay tax to the government. Anything that you sell after one year of buying comes under Long Tem Capital gains and is taxed at 10% while everything sold earlier is charged at the slab you are in.

Finally a look at how is the portfolio doing.

With that neat 114% return in less than 4 months I am beating most of the top funds and fund managers. May be someday I launch a fund and get investors to invest a lac each and give them these returns.

Happy winters in India.

Cheers
TG

Alert - BGR Energy IPO Closing today

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 11 Dec 2007 17:19:00 +0000

Hello All,

Please note that the BGR Energy IPO is closing today, 12 Dec 2007.

As mentioned earlier you can apply for INR94080 (196 shares x 480 Cut off price) for listing gains. I expect this one to give us at least 50% return on Day 1 of listing at which point we should sell in the following manner.

i) 60% stocks if the return is 75%
ii) or 70% stocks if the return is 50%

Remember this is an IPO gain investment and hence I am not recommending a long-term hold on full investment.

The share may appreciate after listing - correction - consolidation - renewed interest and hence am recommending a 30%/40% hold (as per the conditions above). Of course you can improvise the levels as per your comfort.

The IPO has already been over-subscribed by 12.73 times already as at 1700 Hrs IST, 11 Dec 2007. It will mostly end up oversubscribed over 20 times tomorrow, being the last day.

So here's a good chance to make some quick money for the new year.

Happy investing.

Tarun

Believe this? Your investment grew 25% in one day today!

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 05 Dec 2007 23:05:00 +0000

Oooooooh......

Hope all of you will now agree to spend the 5% profits for someone's welfare.
ISPAT has ROCKETED 25% today (05 Dec 2007).

From a recommendation at INR 14 levels, these levels of INR68 mean almost a FIVE fold increase in about 3 months. Just imagine had you put in One Lac it would have grown to Five lacs today.
:)

Anyway here are some important updates/notes.

1. You must research banking stocks and pick at least one good bank to hold for the next 2-3 years to get a more than 100% return (ICICI Bank is one of my choices and am looking for more).

2. Apply for the BGR Energy IPO closing on 12 Dec (with One Lac application) for listing gains. I am expecting at least 50% return on listing day. This translates into a 50% return in about 30-35 days, if you are allotted shares.

3. Invest in mutual funds. Those in India must invest in TAX SAVING mutual funds also called ELSS schemes. Any investment made in these qualifies for tax rebate in the 1 Lac rebate bucket while they give a decent return of at least 30% per year. Some of mine have given me 150% return per annum. Thankfully the lock-in is 3 years only compared to 5 years on other Tax saving instruments.

4. Did you know that BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) contribute 50% of the world's GDP? Question - Remember what is GDP? Go back to the text book and look it up.

5. You must invest at least 20% of your savings (remember SAVINGS and NOT salary) into stocks, while another 20% in Mutual Funds. If there are no major liabilities at home then go in for 30% - 10% ratio. The remaining 60% of your savings should be spread across RD's, Real Estate.

6. Get adequately insured. DO NOT BUY policies that give you MONEY BACK/CHILD's FUTURE/REGULAR CASHBACK, as these are rip-off's for people like us who know that the paltry 7-8% from these policies is peanuts compared to 400% in under 4 months in ISPAT. BUY ‘Term Insurance’ and Accidental Death policies.

7. Read Business Magazines, watch NDTV Profit, NDTV AWAAZ, Google for things like "Turnaround Story"/"Expansion plans"/"Growth Plans"/”Hidden Gem”/”Insider Information”, etc.

8. REMEMBER - buying a TV/New mobile/Car/Bike is NOT an investment but EXPENDITURE. So get your basics right on INVESTMENTS and EXPENSES. Create more investments than expenditures.

9. Banking, Engineering, Alternative Energy and Education are sectors to watch out for next year.

10. Generally avoid TEXTILE companies, as nothing is happening there for the last few decades except very rare exceptions.

11. Move ahead, do not stick to a job role for more than 3 years, either change the company or change the role after three years (unless you are a research material).

12. Work across multiple cultures (After UK I wish to work in US before I come back to India in 2009).

13. Believe me - INDIA IS THE PLACE TO BE IN. It's rocking and will rock for the next 20-25 years easily.

Sometimes I feel giving up writing this blog as there are instances when I feel that there are already so many news channels/broking houses/individuals like me giving advice on stock picking, but I do not know somehow or the other I do come back to post a message for everyone who reads the blog.

Anyway if some day you stop hearing from me do not be surprised, as that will be the day I would have given up writing this blog (only to move to a more passionate occupancy).

Cheers
Tarun

"I have a problem with money. I can't find enough to invest, the more I invest the more returns come in and I end up with a deeper crave to invest more."

General Update - 29 Nov 2007

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 13:03:00 +0000

Friends,

I know that I am now getting slow at keeping you all up to date, thanks to my over occupied life.

Anyway let's get cracking.

1. ISPAT is shining; there have been a lot of news items about it and almost all of the broking community recommending it.

- It has been included in the F&O segment and hence another positive for the stock.
- The rumour is that GAIL is extending it gas pipeline to be close to the ISPAT's plant hence reducing the fuel cost, helping to improve profits.

Continue to HOLD for LONG TERM. ACCUMULATE at 40 levels (if the market crashes).

2. MERCATOR LINES touched 150 and has been coming down since then and is now quoting at 117. I believe that most of you have booked profits and made your money. I have been selling at regular intervals to book my profits.

SELL half of your holding to book profits.

3. FORTIS seems to be gaining strength and is a good buy if it touches 75 levels again. Those of you who can wait for 2-3 years can BUY at these levels as well.

4. UNITECH is sitting pretty at 370 levels. Would not recommend buying at these levels. Those of you who already have it, Continue to HOLD.

5. POWERGRID is a LONG TERM stock.
BUY if it dips below 140 levels otherwise continue to HOLD.

6. SUPREME PETRO is again fort at least 1 year horizon. HOLD and ACCUMULATE at 26 levels.

A few other stocks that I like are:
ICICI Bank Below 1100 levels
RPL Below 200 levels
GTL Infrastructure Below 51 levels
Hotel Leela Below 55 levels
BHARTI Airtel 850 levels

IMPORTANT
It is very important to know your RETURN GOALS, do not just keep sitting on profits in the belied that they will keep growing endlessly. It is very important to book profits, as profits become money only when it is booked.

In the stock market there are always opportunities to buy stocks to make profits. So do not think that you will repent a SELL decision in future. It is what you have in hand that matters and not what you speculate for future.

An example below is my transactions on MERCATOR LINES, might help you see how to book profits.

MERLIN - I have already booked INR17000 in profits (over my Cost price) and still hold 100 shares worth (12000 today). This translates into a clean profit of INR29000 on my MERCATOR investment.

In the end have a nice time ahead.
FALLING markets are GOOD TIMES (for us, the long term investors as these are times to BUY).

Cheers
Tarun

Congratulations - reached 100% Return figure.

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 15 Nov 2007 10:29:00 +0000

Friends,

I am now back in London from my lovely trip to India. It was heartening to be back home after a full year.

Anyway, getting back to business.
Congratulations to all the members that our portfolio basket has reached the 100% return figure today. Ispat has already yielded 225% returns. Mercator has yielded 125% returns and Fortis is now galloping back. Powergrid is at the 50% levels (from post listing buy) and Unitech at 40% return.

Returns

Forward Strategy
1. Those of you booked some profits in Ispat earlier can buy into Ispat. Like I have 600 shares now (having booked 1000 shares) am now going to buy another 1000 at around 45 levels.

2. If any of you checked then SUPREME PETRO that I mentioned sometime back has started moving. It moved from 32 to 25 levels and is now back at 32 levels. For people with high risk high return appetite I would suggest buying into this stock at current and around 30 levels. The company has a strong earning per share and is supposed to be a good future story.

Effectively, the pick for this post is SUPREME PETRO at current levels of 32. The stock is hitting 20% upper circuit today.

Cheers
Tarun

Update - 28 Oct 2007

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sun, 28 Oct 2007 19:42:00 +0000

Friends,

Hope you are enjoying the party.
Our stocks are doing very well.

Returns Update

General Update
FII Money outflow should happen before 15 Dec and hence markets will take a dip. ISPAT is coming out with last Quarter results on 30th Oct. There will be a parliament session on the nuke deal, sometime soon. It is hotter than expected in Delhi. Powergrid still a BUY level, target above INR 200 levels in 2008. Lots of other stuff going on as well, still trying to catch my breath with the pace with which the Corporate India has changed/is changing.

Recommendation
Book some profits in Mercator Lines at these levels 118 range. Selling about 45% of your holding in MLL will get all your investment amount back.

More later (this is being sent out in a haste).

Cheers
Tarun

India - Here I come!

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 18 Oct 2007 10:18:00 +0000

Friends,

Finally it is time for me to visit India. I arrive on 20 Oct 2007 for 3 weeks.

Over these I would like to do a long train journey, walk in the hills, have Indian delicacies, make my 5% profit work for someone, visit Bangalore, do the Konkan railway trip from Belgaum to Mangalore, shop in Delhi, meet friends, eat out at a dhaba, read at least 20 business magazines and an endless list of other things to do. :)

I have been waiting to come back to India for a year now and hope that this will be a happy visit.

Cheers
Tarun

It's a BLOODBATH out there - 18 Oct 2007

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 18 Oct 2007 10:04:00 +0000

Friends,

This is an insane way to return to sanity (SENSEX down 937 points in one day).

It's almost a bloodbath out there, the way the markets are behaving. These are very difficult times and where we are expected to watch from the shore since most of our stocks are doing very well (except Fortis).

I hope you did not get too greedy and not sell 25% of your portfolio on my previous recommendation. If you did not then you have yourself to blame for. If you did then you are sitting pretty on a few thousands in profit.

Strategy Ahead
Wait and watch tomorrow. If the markets are in RED then invest at least 10,000 each in Principal Personal Tax Saver and ICICI Pru Infrastructure (G) mutual funds before 1330 Hrs (place this order online).

This will keep you away from the volatility of the markets and yet allow you to enter MF portfolio that has been performing very well. The Tax Saver will have a lock-in of 3 years and will easily return you a 300% return in that time.

Although some of you came back saying that the 5% profit sharing was a good idea, no one came back with details if any one did book profits/did anything with the 5% profits.

Finally, I have added Powergrid to the Return Check List@ 98 (first day closing price) and am happy to note that some of you did pick it up on that day.

Returns Update

Happy Dusshera.

Cheers
Tarun

Important Update - 11 Oct 2007

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 11 Oct 2007 10:33:00 +0000

Friends,

These are times to keep away from the volatile markets. There is just too much happening on Dalal Street. I am quite worried with this fizzy bubble building up and am sure that this will burst soon (hopefully between late October and mid November).

What this basically means is that this is not the time for investing big time, although certain carefully measured investments can still be made.

This is my strategy until mid November.

1. Reduce your portfolio by 25% (sell 25% of your portfolio).

2. Keep the cash for a while and invest this 25% into Power Grid if it goes above 120 levels or falls below 100 levels.

3. It seems that the money parked in FORTIS is proving to be dormant to me as I also look at short-term opportunities. "FORTIS is still a good stock for 2-3 yrs horizon". I will reduce my holdings in FORTIS and move that money to Power Grid for the short/long term.

4. Another stock that I have recently bought but not advised anyone of buying is 'Supreme Petrochemicals' as it is a HIGH RISK HIGH RETURN stock, not many big players are looking at it and the stock is a good fundamental story.

The Quarterly earnings are about to kick in. Infosys has already taken the IT stocks down. The new 22 Oct date for discussions on the nuke deal between the left and UPA is like a hanging dagger. Retail is facing stiff resistance in various states. Indian team fell like a pack of cards today. The input cost for businesses in India is going up. More and more people are moving up the ladder and demanding more salaries while the exports are getting cheaper owing to the appreciating rupee, which is expected to continue strengthening in the future.

All that is required is that for us to be ambitious, to rise higher, probably another course/MBA/business, etc.

Anyway that does not mean that there aren't positive things happening. There are a lot of opportunities around. One good article that I recently read and would suggest reading is http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/07_12/b4026001.htm

Returns Update

Happy festive season ahead.

Cheers
Tarun

Important - Returns Update/Sell Trigger - 01 Oct 2007

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 01 Oct 2007 21:24:00 +0000

Friends,

Here comes the awaited update and an important one.

Returns Update
I can now demand the 5% as my share :)

ISPAT has crossed 100% return.
Can you believe it that you just made a 100% return in under 7 weeks?

Sell Advise
I would recommend selling 40% of your ISPAT holdings at this level. So if the current value of your ISPAT holdings is INR 20,000 then go ahead and sell shares worth INR 8,000.

There is a quite a lot of activity going on in the country like the fate of the nuke deal, real estate companies running for Telecom licenses, retail ventures on the flourish, UP/Bengal revolting against reliance, Google looking at a JV with Reliance's Flag telecom, ADAG companies going full throttle, cement sector looking up, dollar remaining sub 40 levels, IT manufacturing on the up, politicians playing the religion card (ram sethu)
, cricket playing it's own role, festive season already here, marriages season on the anvil and everything else.

Well in short, time to keep your sense sensitive and open your mind to the world of managing your money and possibly making a difference to someone's lives this year.

Cheers,
Tarun

P.S - Do write back to let me know if you have booked profit and have kept my 5% aside.

General Update - 20 Sep 2007

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 20 Sep 2007 22:11:00 +0000

Friends,

So those of you who marked my words about Unitech "UNITECH will soon be seen beyond buying range." are certainly filled with joy. Unitech has jumped alll barriers and has yielded 18.47% return in 3 days. That's a 18,470 on 1 Lac investment.

Pity my money did not get to the bank in time and I could not buy it myself. :(

Responses to a few comments on the blog
1. Hold Unitech for about 6 months to see > 400 levels and then sell if you need money.
2. I cannot respond to all individual queries on stocks and hence please bear with me if you do not get a response to your question (after all I have a full time job to do myself, which is not in the money markets).
3. Please note that I am not tracking the futures market as of now although I aim to do that soon.
4. Commodities and Metals are good thing to look at, both Gold and Crude are up and are expected to go that way for the moment.
5. None of you should ever blindly believe anyone who gives you investment advise, do make an effort to perform some analysis of your own.
6. Make sure that you keep 5% of all the profits that you make to help someone in need around you as that is what I expect in return for my advise.

I have a general feeling that it is the IT & other air conditioned office employees that are least aware of the wasteful dumping of their in banks.

A lot of us buy a LIC policy only because a friend of your Dad/Mom is a LIC agent. This goes on for ever and is a household story. Similarly most of us do not even ever evaluate the need for insurance, medical protection, home insurance or investing non-conventional instruments.

As a thumb rule everyone under 27 yrs should invest 20% in stocks, 10% in mutual funds and 10% in a RD in the bank. For 27 - 35 it should be 15% in stocks, 15% in mutual funds and 10% in a RD in the bank.

OK, that's enough of lecturing now. But think and take steps to manage your money on your own.

Back to the markets, seems they are duplicating the India cricket team for now. India - Australia will be a tough one and the next week seems the same for the markets. Today's lull after yesterday's bonanza was a shock and hence watch the markets from the sidelines.

Do not enter Unitech at this level, watch and invest below 320 level only.
Fortis - Stay put.
Ispat - stay put.
Mercator - Buy on declines.

Cheers,
Tarun

Returns Update - 18 Sep 2007 (50% barrier broken)

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 18 Sep 2007 14:21:00 +0000

Friends,

I assume you are laughing your way home this festive season. It has already become festive for you as one of your investments has given you more than 50% return now. The others are soon getting there.

Shown below is the Profit Statement assuming that you invested INR 10000 in the recommended scrip on the day.

Important to note that FORTIS has got into the spin and is now moving up. UNITECH will soon be seen beyond buying range.

I am already left with no money to invest and am repenting that. Just to give you an idea of my portfolio, my profits on the current holdings went up by INR 7425 today.

So if you have already booked some profits then go out and make merry.

I was taken by surprise when one of my good friends (ANKUR DUGGAL) who never invested in stocks responded to one of my returns update post saying that he was rocking with the huge profit he made in ISPAT, after he took my suggestion to invest. I am glad he made the profit.
:)

P.S - Feel free to forward this email on to your friends, who you think might benefit from it.

Cheers,
Tarun

5th Pick and useful updates

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sun, 16 Sep 2007 15:07:00 +0000

Good Morning India,

You have just woken up to a new pick on my radar and India's comical victory over Pakistan, no doubt that the Kiwis proved better than India.

Our Holdings
1. ISPAT has gone through the roof, touched 20.6 and now quoting at 19.7 (37% return).
2. Mercator touched 73 to close at 68.30, there's a lot of steam in it.
3. Fortis is still at good buying levels, buy on every dip.
4. Those of you who have already booked some profits on my recommendations, please make sure that you keep a 5% of the profit aside for me. I will ask you to spend it somewhere around the festival time (probably help a househelp/security guard in your company to fund their kids school fees, etc). Hope you would not mind that.

General Updates
1. I assume all of you applied for the Powergrid IPO, those who did not can smile and those who did can as well. The IPO was oversubscribed over 64 times, which applicants get loose change (very less shares). Make sure that you get your money out in time to buy after the share lists and stabilises.

2. You can check the subscription details at the link below http://www.nseindia.com/marketinfo/ipochart/ipochart.jsp?issue=PGCILCUMUEQ&ir=I&cn=C&sd=D&cnlink=N

3. One good site that I use to track IPO's is http://www.chittorgarh.com/newportal/ipo_calendar_india.asp

4. Did you know that ELSS instrument helps you with a income tax rebate and gives you much better returns than any other conventional tax saving financial instruments?

5. In my next post I will detail how investing in ELSS should make huge money for you while you remain carefree about it.

5th Pick
OK, here is the next pick that I have been analysing for a while and am now tempted to give it out. The winner is ............ UNITECH.

I will leave all of you to do a bit of analysis yourself and ask you to drop me the analysis at findtarun@yahoo.com (with subject UNITECH).

CMP (Current Market Price) - 282.90
Horizon - 2 years plus
Expected returns - at least 150%
Disclosure - will buy on dips
Entry price - below 300

Please note that if Unitech comes anywhere near 265 levels, make sure you put in some money.

Happy investing.

Tarun

Returns Update - 13 Sep 2007 :)

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 13 Sep 2007 11:45:00 +0000

Friends,

This is where we are.
MERCATOR makes it over 25% return and ISPAT is beyond 30%.

Script Name Buy Price Mkt Price Profit / Loss
Mercator Lines 55 70.2 27.64%
Ispat Industries 14.5 18.95 30.69%
Fortis Healthcare 84 84.3 0.36%

Cheers,
Tarun

india long term picks

Returns Update - 11 Sep 2007 :)

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 13:18:00 +0000

Hmm...

So everyone who bought as per my recommendations seem to be making money....
(I am happy that I have been able to do that).

Script Name	Qty	Buy Price	Mkt Price	Profit / Loss
Mercator Lines	100	55	64.3	16.91%
Ispat Indus	100	14.5	19.25	32.76%
Fortis Health	100	84	84.45	0.54%

And did you notice that the market is actually giving negative returns...

IDX	Value	Change	%
SENSEX	15,505.36	-37.41	-0.24

So say cheers.... and hope that I have a nice trip to India (Oh .. I forgot to tell all of you that I am based in London).

Cheers,
Tarun

Why buy FORTIS Healthcare?

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sun, 09 Sep 2007 18:41:00 +0000

Friends,

As a result of a query, I am providing a few more details on buying FORTIS. I managed to buy a few last Friday.

1. Since DLF has now got the money from the public (IPO, hence established a more publicly visible brand) and FORTIS is listed as well, these create favorable conditions for expansions. Since both have a national presence and the sector is almost niche, there is only one direction that the stock will move in, in the long term.

2. It should not be forgotten that it is the HEALTHCARE business lacks enough corporatisation and the ones with a sound business model can be counted on the fingers of one hand.

3. The business model that FORTIS is building on, is that the entire infrastructure from DLF for this deal and then RANBAXY to back it up with Pharma requirements and probably use US as a market to sell their Medi-tourism products (if they go down that route, since Ranbaxy also has a network in place in US),

4. The company is constructing a 950-bed Medicity (medical education hubs) in Gurgaon. This will be a teaching hospital and called FIIMS (on lines of AIIMS). FORTIS intends to build 10 such medicities in India.

5. FORTIS plans to have 40 hospitals by 2010 (28 to be added to the current 12).

6. Read here more on APOLLO (in general to get a view of what’s happening in the sector) - http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/004200708050343.htm

7. Organised private healthcare is where I am betting my money (FORTIS) as all the other players are established and high up with lesser upside left.

DISCLOSURES – I hold this stock and will continue to buy on dips.

HORIZON - > 2 years (personally I would keep it for >4 years)

Cheers,

Note – Again this is my personal investment rationale, you are advised to research to look for more information.

4th pick - FORTIS Healthcare

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 07 Sep 2007 09:13:00 +0000

Friends,

While both my previous picks are doing well in market, it is time to announce the next pick. Although I had originally intended to buy a Infrastructure company, I am now making a deviation to Medical Infrastructure.

The next pick is FORTIS HEALTHCARE, priced at 85.40 as I write this against an issue price of 100 during the IPO.

Rationale

1. DLF, Fortis to invest Rs 3,000cr for 15 hospitals (DLF and Fortis have signed an alliance agreement to develop about 15 'Centre of Excellence' hospitals in townships being developed by DLF in the first five years).

2. FORTIS is in advanced talks to take over Chennai-based Malar Hospital. It has made an offer of around Rs 60 crore for the 250-bed hospital.

3. Remember FORTIS also has a Financial Services arm and the group will certainly make sure that the stock surfaces above the IPO price (you know the stock price can be easily managed by companies themselves, a financial service is shot in the arm).

4. Private healthcare accounts for 75 per cent of India’s total healthcare expenditure

5. Government spending on healthcare totalled just $3.7bn in 2001, or 0.9 per cent of gross domestic product.

6. India has 1.5 hospital beds per 1,000 people, compared with 4.3 beds in the average developing country, according to a report from McKinsey and the Confederation of Indian Industries.

Horizon – 1-2 yrs for > 100% returns

Cheers,

Tarun

Update - 05 Sep 2007

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 05 Sep 2007 17:20:00 +0000

Hmm...

The markets have taken a bit of a beating today and our stocks have marginally corrected (they are still well beyond the recommended entry price).

Since the stocks recommended are for a LONG TERM perspective (2-3 yrs) do not be bothered by fall in the markets. Treat the falls as a buying opportunity.

I would inclined to add more MERCATOR LINES if it goes anywhere near 52-53. ISPAT should be added if it goes anywhere near 15.

So sleep easy and wake up when the markets are down to a BUY level.

Cheers,
Tarun

3rd Pick - Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 30 Aug 2007 21:49:00 +0000

Friends,

The next long term pick is ** Power Grid Corporation of India (PGCIL) **.

WHY?

1. First ever IPO offer being made to the public from 10 Sep - 13 Sep.

2. It is a Mini-Ratna Category- I public sector undertaking.

3. The Ministry of Power will continue to hold 86.36% after the IPO.

4. PGCIL owns and operates most of India’s interstate and inter-regional electric power transmission system.

5. PGCIL has over 19,000 kilometers long fiber-optic cable network connecting over 60 Indian cities, including all major metropolitan areas (Broadband, NLD).

6. Profit last year was Rs. 920 Crores

IPO Details
Dates : 10 Sep 2007 - 13 Sep 2007
Price Range : 44 – 5 2

Recommendation
The IPO will certainly be highly oversubscribed (> 10 times) so try and apply at cut-off price for 75% of your liquid money (say 35000) and keep 15000 aside to buy it on listing if the price is attractive (markets being choppy).

Happy investing.

Cheers,

(Next pick - will be an infrastructure company, next week)