Tainted Alpha

ECRI Weekly Leading Index Down 10.7%

Belisarius — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 15:35:30 +0000

ECRI Weekly Leading Index is down 10.7%. Prior reading was at 10.5%.

Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index

Source: Bloomberg

U.S. GDP Rose 2.4% in Q2 2010

Belisarius — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 12:36:12 +0000

U.S. GDP Rose 2.4% in Q2 2010. The consensus was at 2.6%, Q1 reading was at 2.7%.

Another miss, but not a big one (jet).

Chart 1. U.S. Real GDP & Percent Change

Source: BEA

ATA For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index Falls For Two Consecutive Months

Belisarius — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 09:40:28 +0000

Another data point pointing to a slowdown….

From the press release:

The American Trucking Associations’ advance seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 1.4 percent in June, although May’s reduction was revised from 0.6 percent to just 0.1 percent. May and June marked the first back-to-back contractions since March and April 2009. The latest reduction lowered the SA index from 110.1 (2000=100) in May to 108.5 in June.

…

ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said that the two sequential decreases reflect an economy that is slowing. Furthermore, growth in truck tonnage is likely to moderate in the months ahead as the economy decelerates and year-over-year comparisons become more difficult. Nevertheless, Costello believes that tonnage doesn’t have to grow very quickly at this point since industry capacity has declined so much. “Due to supply tightness in the market, any tonnage growth feels significantly better for fleets than one might expect.”

Chart 1. ATA For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index SA

Source: ATA

Mind The Gap

Belisarius — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 08:38:21 +0000

It remains to be seen whether the today’s U.S. GDP reading (for Q2) will flash slowdown, but no doubt remains that this quarter (Q3) will be ugly.

Chart 1. Consumer Metrics Institute‘s Growth Index vs. Official Quarterly GDP Growth Rates

Source: Consumer Metrics Institute

Initial Jobless Claims At 457.000; Down 11.000

Belisarius — Thu, 29 Jul 2010 13:57:25 +0000

Initial jobless claims were reported at 457.000. The consensus was at 460.000, last week revised reading was at 468.000.

Again, stubbornly high….

Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

Source: Bloomberg

Lower Highs, Higher Lows

Belisarius — Thu, 29 Jul 2010 11:30:04 +0000

This is supposed to be bearish.

Chart 1. S&P 500

Source: Bloomberg

U.S. Petroleum Weekly – July 29, 2010

Belisarius — Thu, 29 Jul 2010 09:12:39 +0000

Crude oil stocks rose 7.3 million barrels for week ending July 16; Gasoline stocks remained unchanged; Distillate stocks increased 0.9 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks rose 0.5 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 9.0 million barrels higher than the week before.

Refinery utilization fell from 91.5% to 90.6%.

Implied crude oil demand was at 15.6 million barrels.

Crude oil and petroleum product net imports rose to 11.4 million barrels.

All categories of petroleum stocks are at extremely elevated levels. Highest in last 5 years for this time of the year.

I posted implied demand graphs the market is concentrating. It’s calculated as a change in inventory!!! It’s product supplied directly to inventory, it’s not demand.

It’s cash-and-carry trade and unusual correlation with stocks thats keeping price this high. Full blown bubble.

Chart 1. Crude Oil Futures

Source: Bloomberg

Chart 2. Crude Oil Futures Curve

Source: Bloomberg

Chart 3. DOE Crude Oil Output Implied Demand

Source: Bloomberg

Chart 4. DOE Motor Gasoline Total Output Implied Demand

Source: Bloomberg

Chart 5. DOE Distillate Fuel Output Implied Demand Data

Source: Bloomberg

Chart 6. DOE Crude Oil Total Inventory Data (excluding Strategic Petroleum Reserve)

Source: Bloomberg

Chart 7. DOE Motor Gasoline Total InventoryData

Source: Bloomberg

Chart 8. DOE Distillate Fuel Oil Total Inventory Data

Source: Bloomberg

Chart 9. DOE Percent Utilization Refinery Operable Capacity

Source: Bloomberg

MBA Mortgage Applications Fell 4.4%

Belisarius — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 14:21:03 +0000

MBA mortgage applications fell 4.4% for week ending July 23, the prior reading was an increase of 7.6%. Refinance index fell 5.9%; Purchase index rose 2.0%.

Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications

Source: Bloomberg

Durable Goods Orders Fell 1.0% In June

Belisarius — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 14:13:27 +0000

Durable good orders fell 1.0% in June vs. +1.0% consensus and -1.1% increase in May. Transportation taken out the figure was a decrease of 0.6% vs. 0.6% rise in May and +0.4% consensus.

Big miss, with no appropriate market reaction.

Chart 1. U.S. Durable Goods Orders

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Chart 2. U.S. Durable Goods Orders Ex. Transportation

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Conference Board Consumer Confidence For July At 50.4

Belisarius — Tue, 27 Jul 2010 14:07:33 +0000

Conference Board consumer confidence came out at 50.4 vs. 51.0 consensus and 54.3 reading for June.

Chart 1. Conference Board Consumer Confidence

Source: Bloomberg