Tainted Alpha

Rig Count Update – March 7, 2013

Belisarius — Thu, 07 Mar 2013 10:34:48 +0000

Number of crude oil drilling rigs in the U.S. was quite stable in the last 6 months. On a year level we had a small decrease.
On world scale number of oil & gas drilling rigs changed only for the change in the U.S.

The post Rig Count Update – March 7, 2013 first appeared on Tainted Alpha.

Tanker Update – March 6, 2013

Belisarius — Wed, 06 Mar 2013 10:33:00 +0000

Same as with dry bulk, we are long time away from recovery, but I tend to think that overcapacity is smaller in wet cargo.

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 3.4%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 1.2%.

The post Tanker Update – March 6, 2013 first appeared on Tainted Alpha.

Dry Bulk Update – March 6, 2013

Belisarius — Wed, 06 Mar 2013 09:44:24 +0000

I don't see any encouraging data for the dry bulk industry, we are probably years away from recovery.

Last week Baltic Dry Index rose 4.9%; Capesize Index was down 6.9%; Panamax Index rose 14.0%; Supramax Index was up 8.9%; Handysize Index rose 8.5%.

China steel and coal inventories edged up while their prices moved down. Iron ore inventory on the other hand moved down, while price showed some signs of recovery. Overall the demand in these markets seems weak.

The post Dry Bulk Update – March 6, 2013 first appeared on Tainted Alpha.

Tanker Weekly – January 7, 2013

Belisarius — Mon, 07 Jan 2013 14:07:10 +0000

The fleet is growing slower in tankers than in dry bulk and the order-book is smaller in proportion to the fleet size. The difference is that the volumes are more stable in wet cargo, so overall maybe a bit better situation than in dry bulk, but the diagnose is the same: a lot of scrapping needed to induce some recovery.

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 11.1%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 4.6%.

The post Tanker Weekly – January 7, 2013 first appeared on Tainted Alpha.

Dry Bulk Weekly – January 7, 2013

Belisarius — Mon, 07 Jan 2013 13:08:06 +0000

Almost half a year passed since my last post. I have to say I miss my blogging, so one of my New Year decisions was start over, probably not with intensity as in the best days...

In the mean time we had a wild ride with equity and most of the other prices in China, but ultimately (concerning shipping) the result is that we are about where we were 6 months ago, only the dry bulk fleet now is even bigger.

The post Dry Bulk Weekly – January 7, 2013 first appeared on Tainted Alpha.

June ISM Manufacturing Index At 49.7

Belisarius — Mon, 02 Jul 2012 14:50:46 +0000

ISM Manufacturing Index was reported at 49.7 vs. prior reading of 53.5 and consensus of 52.0.

The post June ISM Manufacturing Index At 49.7 first appeared on Tainted Alpha.

June HSBC/Markit China PMI At 48.2

Belisarius — Mon, 02 Jul 2012 14:27:49 +0000

HSBC/Markit PMI fell from 48.4 to 48.2.

The post June HSBC/Markit China PMI At 48.2 first appeared on Tainted Alpha.

Dry Bulk Weekly – July 2, 2012

Belisarius — Mon, 02 Jul 2012 14:09:13 +0000

It's been a while a posted my last post. My day job has become really exhaustive and it's quite difficult for me to find time to write. I hope I will manage to post at least a couple of posts per week in the future.

In the mean time all things China (including shipping) has deteriorated further.

Baltic dry index rose 2.7% last week; Capesize Index was up 3.0%; Panamax Index fell 6.1%; Supramax Index was up 6.6%; Handysize Index rose 2.0%.

Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports mostly flat, price moved lower. Steel stockpiles fell further, but remained at elevated levels while price moved lower. Thermal coal inventory at all-time high, price moved lower.

The post Dry Bulk Weekly – July 2, 2012 first appeared on Tainted Alpha.

May HSBC/Markit China PMI At 48.7

Belisarius — Thu, 24 May 2012 10:39:42 +0000

HSBC/Markit PMI fell from 49.3 to 48.7.

Large discrepancy between HSBC/Markit and “official” PMI.

The post May HSBC/Markit China PMI At 48.7 first appeared on Tainted Alpha.

Tanker Weekly – May 21, 2012

Belisarius — Mon, 21 May 2012 09:09:45 +0000

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 0.7%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 0.3%.

The post Tanker Weekly – May 21, 2012 first appeared on Tainted Alpha.

Dry Bulk Weekly – May 21, 2012

Belisarius — Mon, 21 May 2012 08:53:22 +0000

Baltic dry index rose 0.3% last week; Capesize Index was up 1.2%; Panamax Index fell 3.6%; Supramax Index was down 0.4%; Handysize Index rose 3.7%.

Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports mostly flat, price moved lower on risk-off. Steel stockpiles fell further, but remained at elevated levels while price moved marginally lower. Thermal coal inventory rose, price remained unchanged.

The post Dry Bulk Weekly – May 21, 2012 first appeared on Tainted Alpha.

China New Loan Issuance Slows Down In April; Rate Of Money Supply High

Belisarius — Fri, 11 May 2012 13:47:29 +0000

The most broad measure of money supply – M2 rose 17.5% y-o-y in April vs. 18.1% rise in March.
Chinese banks issued CNY 682 billion of new loans in April vs. CNY 1,010 billion in March and consensus of CNY 780 billion. New loan issuance first four months this year is 4.9% higher than in first four months 2011.

The post China New Loan Issuance Slows Down In April; Rate Of Money Supply High first appeared on Tainted Alpha.

China Retail Sales Up 14.1% In April

Belisarius — Fri, 11 May 2012 13:26:39 +0000

China retail sales rose 14.1% y-o-y in April vs. 15.2% March reading. Consensus was at 15.1%.

The post China Retail Sales Up 14.1% In April first appeared on Tainted Alpha.

China Fixed Asset Investments Rose 20.2% In April

Belisarius — Fri, 11 May 2012 12:54:26 +0000

China fixed asset investments were up 20.2% y-o-y in April; March reading was at 20.9%. Consensus was at 20.5%.

Lowest reading since 2002.

The post China Fixed Asset Investments Rose 20.2% In April first appeared on Tainted Alpha.

Chinese Industrial Production Rose 9.3% In April

Belisarius — Fri, 11 May 2012 12:47:17 +0000

Industrial production in China rose 9.3 % y-o-y in April; March reading was at 11.9%. Consensus was at 12.2%.

Another bad piece of data.

The post Chinese Industrial Production Rose 9.3% In April first appeared on Tainted Alpha.

China April CPI Inflation At 3.4%; PPI Inflation At -0.7%

Belisarius — Fri, 11 May 2012 12:07:18 +0000

China Consumer Price Index was up 3.4% in April, vs. 3.4% consensus and 3.6% March reading. Food inflation rose fell from 7.5 to 7.0%.

China Producer Price Index fell to -0.7% from -0.3% in April. Consensus was at -.5%.

The chart looks outright bad.

The post China April CPI Inflation At 3.4%; PPI Inflation At -0.7% first appeared on Tainted Alpha.

Chinese Trade Balance Surplus Larger Than Expected In April

Belisarius — Thu, 10 May 2012 14:19:10 +0000

China trade balance was reported at USD 18.4 billion vs. USD 5.4 billion in December and USD 9.9 billion consensus. Export and import growth were running at 4.9 and 0.3 percent vs. 8.9% and 5.3% in March.

The post Chinese Trade Balance Surplus Larger Than Expected In April first appeared on Tainted Alpha.

Rig Count Monthly – May 8, 2012

Belisarius — Tue, 08 May 2012 20:51:33 +0000

Massive fall in gas drilling in recent months coupled with large increase in oil drilling.

The post Rig Count Monthly – May 8, 2012 first appeared on Tainted Alpha.

Tanker Weekly – May 7, 2012

Belisarius — Mon, 07 May 2012 13:59:13 +0000

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 2.1%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 0.6%.

The post Tanker Weekly – May 7, 2012 first appeared on Tainted Alpha.

Dry Bulk Weekly – May 7, 2012

Belisarius — Mon, 07 May 2012 13:43:07 +0000

Baltic dry index rose 0.1% last week; Capesize Index was up 5.1%; Panamax Index fell 12.1%; Supramax Index was up 1.5%; Handysize Index rose 2.2%.

Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports and price mostly flat. Steel stockpiles fell further, but remained at elevated levels while price remained flat. Thermal coal inventory rose a bit, price unchanged.

The post Dry Bulk Weekly – May 7, 2012 first appeared on Tainted Alpha.