Tainted Alpha

Dry Bulk Weekly – February 6, 2012

Belisarius — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 12:35:22 +0000

Baltic dry index fell 10.9% last week and has reaching all-time low; Capesize Index was down 2.0%; Panamax Index fell 15.0%; Supramax Index was down 12.5%; Handysize Index fell 10.3%.

Daily Reading – Thursday, February 2, 2012

Belisarius — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 14:51:55 +0000

FT Alphaville: US unemployment “progress” FT Alphaville: That Eurozone repo contraction, charted FT Alphaville: The word from Zug – Xstrata confirms Glencore approach Sober Look: Copper inventories shift from LME to SHFE Tech Crunch: You Know What’s Cool? $1 Billion In Profits FT BeyondBRICs: IMF to Argentina: so close, yet so far FT BeyondBRICs: Brazil’s Vale: no more “no comment”? Calculated Risk: U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 14.18 million annual rate in January

ECRI Weekly Leading Index Recovering

Belisarius — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 10:03:12 +0000

ECRI Weekly Leading Index for week ending January 20, 2012 was reported down 6.5% y-o-y. Prior reading was at -7.6%.

Daily Reading – Friday, January 27, 2012

Belisarius — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 14:44:25 +0000

FT Alphaville: SocGen: hedgies short euro against dollar “like never before” FT Alphaville: Portugal, back in the frame FT Beyond BRICs: China: digger sales in the ditch The Big Picture: Average Correlation of S&P 500 (1986-2012) The Big Picture: The Shift from Manufacturing to Service Economy

U.S. GDP Growth in Q4 2011 At 2.8%

Belisarius — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 14:29:05 +0000

U.S. GDP growth for Q4 was reported at 2.8%; consensus was at 3.0%. Q3 2011 reading was at 1.8%.

U.S. Petroleum Weekly – January 26, 2012

Belisarius — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 15:40:00 +0000

Crude stocks rose 3.5 million barrels; Gasoline stocks were down 0.4 million barrels; Distillate stocks fell 2.5 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks fell 0.5 million barrels; Other oils stocks fell 2.5 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were down 4.3 million barrels.

FOMC Statement – January 25, 2012

Belisarius — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 22:01:38 +0000

Statement wording unchanged, federal funds rates at exceptionally low levels at least through late 2014.

Daily Reading – Wednesday, January 25, 2011

Belisarius — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 15:22:47 +0000

FT Alphaville: Apple wins at profits. And hyperbole FT Alphaville: China is not rebalancing a) yet, or b) enough FT Alphaville: Margin call, the LTRO movie Macro Man: Non-Predictions for 2012 -Random The Big Picture: The Fed again brings out its crystal ball The Big Picture: Comparing Income, Corporate, Capital Gains Tax Rates: 1916-2011 The Big Picture: Euro Zone Bank Stress Test The Big Picture: Fukushima Operator Admits 20% Increase In Radiation

Daily Reading – Tuesday – January 24, 2012

Belisarius — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 14:34:29 +0000

FT Alphaville: Flash PMIs and Germany’s bragging rights FT Alphaville: Go directly to the ECB, do not pass Go, do not collect €200 FT Alphaville: UK debt: £1,003,900,000,000 FT Alphaville: Japan’s trade switcheroo FT Alphaville: A Feng Shui facepalm FT BeyondBRICs: India pauses on rates, cuts CRR Bloomberg: Goldman Sachs Says U.S. Performance May Appear Better Than It Is: Economy The Big Picture: Debt Doesn’t Matter ?

Dry Bulk Weekly – January 23, 2012

Belisarius — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 16:39:44 +0000

Baltic dry index fell 18.1% last week; Capesize Index was down 9.8%; Panamax Index fell 19.3%; Supramax Index was down 16.9%; Handysize Index fell 9.0%.

Tanker Weekly – January 23, 2012

Belisarius — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 16:11:22 +0000

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 7.3%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index was unchanged for the week.

Daily Reading – Monday, January 23, 2012

Belisarius — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 15:43:17 +0000

The Daily Stag Hunt: The Correlation Of Laughter At Fomc Meetings Gavyn Davies: Fed to reveal almost all Gavyn Davies: How the Fed defeated President Truman to win its independence FT Alphaville: The LTRO rally is young, says SocGen FT Alphaville: The ECB creates artificial life FT Alphaville: Mark Faber on why equities are better than ‘safe assets’ The Big Picture: Is Anyone Any Good at Picking Hedge Fund Managers? The Big Picture: SecondMarket: Private Company Market 2011 Report

January HSBC/Markit China PMI At 48.8

Belisarius — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 13:48:52 +0000

HSBC/Markit PMI rose from 48.7 to 48.8. Basically unchanged.

Daily Reading – Thursday, January 19, 2012

Belisarius — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 15:08:58 +0000

FT Alphaville: The EBA 9% rule and the Eurozone crisis FT Alphaville: Who did, and didn’t, tap the three-year LTRO FT Alphaville: BHL sur le late AAA FT Alphaville: Greek lessons for Portugal FT BeyondBRICs: Labour unrest in China – no letup soon FT BeyondBRICs: [Snap]: Brazil cuts rates by 50bp

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims At 352.000; Down 50.000

Belisarius — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 14:48:51 +0000

Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 352.000 vs. 384.000 consensus and last week revised (up 3.000) reading of 402.000.

U.S. Housing Starts Down 4.1% In December

Belisarius — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 14:36:27 +0000

U.S. housing starts in September fell 4.1% to 657.000 vs. 685.000 November reading. Consensus was at 680.000. On year level U.S. housing starts are up 24.9%.

U.S. Consumer Price Index Unchanged In December

Belisarius — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 14:23:24 +0000

U.S. consumer price index was unchanged in December vs. 0.1% consensus and unchanged reading for November. On year level CPI inflation is running at 3.0%.

Daily Reading – January 18, 2012

Belisarius — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 15:13:27 +0000

The Big Picture: Google, Wikipedia, 1000s Go Black to Protest SOPA/PIPA The Big Picture: Web Sites to Go Dark The Big Picture: IMF wants more cash, glass half full or half empty? FT Alphaville: Goldman in Q4… FT Alphaville: China’s property sector goes from bad to worse FT Alphaville: World Bank joins the gloomfest FT Alphaville: The great Australian bond run Calculated Risk: Industrial Production increased 0.4% in December, Capacity Utilization increased the bonddad blog: The ECRI Weekly Leading Index, unmasked

Monthly Strategy – January 2012

Belisarius — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 14:53:48 +0000

The consensus with which I agree is that the Euro zone is heading into a recession. While the economic activity has somewhat improved over the last months in the U.S. I remain doubtful whether the U.S. can escape the recession when Europe enters one. The data coming from China doesn't (jet) point to a hard landing. For the time being it looks like that the Chinese government is in control. The measures to contain inflation and raising real-estate prices are successful, while in the same time China is has taken early steps to increase domestic consumption and re-balance the economy. One should not disregard and keep close watch on soft data coming from China especially in real estate and commodity related industries which are not reflected in the official data and could be pointing to serious issues.

Bloomberg TV: Goldman’s O’Neill Discusses Global Economic Outlook

Belisarius — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 12:56:51 +0000

Jim O’Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, talks about the growth outlook for China and the impact on the global economy. (Source: Bloomberg)