Tainted Alpha

China New Loan Issuance Slows Down In April; Rate Of Money Supply High

Belisarius — Fri, 11 May 2012 13:47:29 +0000

The most broad measure of money supply – M2 rose 17.5% y-o-y in April vs. 18.1% rise in March. Chinese banks issued CNY 682 billion of new loans in April vs. CNY 1,010 billion in March and consensus of CNY 780 billion. New loan issuance first four months this year is 4.9% higher than in first four months 2011.

China Retail Sales Up 14.1% In April

Belisarius — Fri, 11 May 2012 13:26:39 +0000

China retail sales rose 14.1% y-o-y in April vs. 15.2% March reading. Consensus was at 15.1%.

China Fixed Asset Investments Rose 20.2% In April

Belisarius — Fri, 11 May 2012 12:54:26 +0000

China fixed asset investments were up 20.2% y-o-y in April; March reading was at 20.9%. Consensus was at 20.5%. Lowest reading since 2002.

Chinese Industrial Production Rose 9.3% In April

Belisarius — Fri, 11 May 2012 12:47:17 +0000

Industrial production in China rose 9.3 % y-o-y in April; March reading was at 11.9%. Consensus was at 12.2%. Another bad piece of data.

China April CPI Inflation At 3.4%; PPI Inflation At -0.7%

Belisarius — Fri, 11 May 2012 12:07:18 +0000

China Consumer Price Index was up 3.4% in April, vs. 3.4% consensus and 3.6% March reading. Food inflation rose fell from 7.5 to 7.0%. China Producer Price Index fell to -0.7% from -0.3% in April. Consensus was at -.5%. The chart looks outright bad.

Chinese Trade Balance Surplus Larger Than Expected In April

Belisarius — Thu, 10 May 2012 14:19:10 +0000

China trade balance was reported at USD 18.4 billion vs. USD 5.4 billion in December and USD 9.9 billion consensus. Export and import growth were running at 4.9 and 0.3 percent vs. 8.9% and 5.3% in March.

Rig Count Monthly – May 8, 2012

Belisarius — Tue, 08 May 2012 20:51:33 +0000

Massive fall in gas drilling in recent months coupled with large increase in oil drilling.

Tanker Weekly – May 7, 2012

Belisarius — Mon, 07 May 2012 13:59:13 +0000

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 2.1%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 0.6%.

Dry Bulk Weekly – May 7, 2012

Belisarius — Mon, 07 May 2012 13:43:07 +0000

Baltic dry index rose 0.1% last week; Capesize Index was up 5.1%; Panamax Index fell 12.1%; Supramax Index was up 1.5%; Handysize Index rose 2.2%. Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports and price mostly flat. Steel stockpiles fell further, but remained at elevated levels while price remained flat. Thermal coal inventory rose a bit, price unchanged.

ECRI Weekly Leading Index Growth Rate Moves Out Of Negative Teritorry

Belisarius — Mon, 07 May 2012 08:46:50 +0000

ECRI Weekly Leading Index for week ending April 27, 2012 was reported unchanged y-o-y. Prior reading was at 0.5%.

U.S. Freight Carloads Weekly – May 4, 2012

Belisarius — Fri, 04 May 2012 14:11:50 +0000

U.S. railroads originated 283,080 carloads, down 4.2% compared with the same week in 2011 and down 3.3% in relation to 5-year average. Week over week change was +0.3%.

April Nonfarm Payrolls Rose 115.000; Private Payrolls Up 130.000; Unemployment Rate At 8.1%

Belisarius — Fri, 04 May 2012 13:31:38 +0000

Nonfarm payrolls rose 115.000 in April; Consensus was at 160.000; March reading was an increase of 154.000 (revised up 34.000). Unemployment was reported at 8.1% vs. prior reading and consensus of also 8.2%. Private payrolls were up 130.000 vs. 165.000 consensus and 166.000 reading in March (revised up 45.000).

U.S. Petroleum Weekly – May 4, 2012

Belisarius — Fri, 04 May 2012 10:37:58 +0000

The oil price is holding up quite well despite weaker demand and higher stockpiles. The reason for that are tightness in the brent market (which reflects in other markets via. arbitrage) and geopolitical risks (mostly related to Iran nuclear program).

U.S. Natural Gas Weekly – May 4, 2012

Belisarius — Fri, 04 May 2012 09:27:53 +0000

Working gas in storage rose 28 Bcf from previous week. Consensus was at 29 Bcf. Storage level is massive 810 Bcf higher than same time year ago and way above 5-year average. Abundance of supply.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims At 365.000; Down 27.000

Belisarius — Thu, 03 May 2012 13:26:34 +0000

Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 365.000 vs. 379.000 consensus and last week revised (up 4.000) reading of 392.000.

April Challenger Job-Cuts At 40,559

Belisarius — Thu, 03 May 2012 13:15:34 +0000

Challenger’s count of layoff announcements was reported at 40,559 in April vs. 37,880 in March.

ADP Employment Rose 119,000 In April

Belisarius — Wed, 02 May 2012 14:16:15 +0000

ADP Employment rose 119,000 in April vs. revised (down 8,000) gain of 201,000 in March.

FOMC Statement – April 25, 2012

Belisarius — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 17:46:19 +0000

As expected, a non-event. Statement wording mostly unchanged, federal funds rates at exceptionally low levels at least through late 2014. A full statement with changes tracked bellow.

Tanker Weekly – April 21, 2012

Belisarius — Mon, 23 Apr 2012 19:26:41 +0000

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 5.4%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 0.6%. Same as with dry bulk...nothing changed.

April HSBC/Markit China PMI At 49.1

Belisarius — Mon, 23 Apr 2012 13:47:23 +0000

HSBC/Markit PMI rose from 48.3 to 49.1. Large discrepancy between HSBC/Markit and "official" PMI. Looks like a slight overreaction by the markets (if we view this in isolation).