TalkLeft

Kentucky 's Demographics

Jeralyn — 2008-05-14T22:01:46-05:00

Five threads in one day for John Edwards is plenty. Even the Washington Post says his endorsement will have a short news cycle hit and in the end not matter much.

So, onto Kentucky. Hillary got the endorsement today of four former Democratic KY governors. The demographics favor her. And, while a record number have registered to vote, only 16,000 new voters registered since January. [More...]

A record 2.8 million Kentuckians are registered to vote in the primary election. Of those, 1.6 million are Democrats. And, despite the close presidential primary, the number of new registered voters hasn't skyrocketed. In the past six months, 16,000 people have registered, 13,000 of them as Democrats.

Records from the Kentucky Board of Elections show that 53 percent of the state's registered voters are women, a demographic that has played in Clinton's favor in other states. Kentucky doesn't track party registrants by race, but blacks make up only 7.4 percent of the state's population compared with 12.4 percent nationally — a far smaller minority voting bloc than in other Southern states carried by Obama.

And Kentucky voters are slightly older than voters nationally, another advantage for Clinton.

There are 51 delegates. As for superdelegates:

Clinton has won the endorsement of three of Kentucky's Democratic superdelegates. Obama has been endorsed by two, both Democratic congressmen representing the state's two largest cities. Three other superdelegates remain undecided.

On polls: May 9 - 11, Survey USA:

Survey USA Kentucky Poll conducted on 9 May – 11 May showed Clinton leading Obama by 32 points – 62 to 30 among Kentucky Democratic primary voters. Conducted on sample size of 641, the poll, with Margin of error: ± 3.8 , indicated a massive victory for Clinton.

So long as Hillary remains in the race, we'll keep following the primaries. She deserves at least that. And so do her supporters.

Why Did John Edwards Endorse Obama Today? Thread V

Jeralyn — 2008-05-14T20:53:00-05:00

Continuing on from Big Tent Democrat's post on John Edwards endorsement of Obama:

John Edwards has been on tv for two weeks saying there was no reason for him to endorse either candidate. What changed? In two words: West Virginia. In four words: West Virginina and Kentucky.

Here's John Edwards on Monday night, May 12, the night before West Virginia, telling Larry King why he hasn't endorsed:

LARRY KING: You have not endorsed, senator. Some might say as a major figure in the party at this point, don't you have a responsibility to endorse?

JOHN EDWARDS (D), FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: No. I think that what I have a responsibility to do is make sure that the Democrats' message and our cause is heard and that we're united in the fall. You know, myself, Al Gore, I think there are some others who haven't spoken out yet about this nomination battle.

[More...]

I think we have two great candidates. I have such an extraordinarily high opinion of both of them. You watch sort of what's happened in the past, I think that some of the endorsements as opposed to helping unite have contributed to the divide. And what I don't want to do is contribute to the divide. I mean, we had a primary in North Carolina where I live. I live in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. I voted in that primary. So obviously, I made a choice in that vote. But at least for this moment, I think the reasonable thing for me to do is let voters make their decision.

KING: All right. How damaged, frankly, is your party based on the way this primary has gone and the hostility that has occurred between the two candidates?

EDWARDS: Well, my honest feeling about that is the longer it goes on and -- when I got out back at the end of January, beginning of February, one of the reasons I got out was I thought that my getting out would accelerate the choice of a nominee, would allow us to get prepared for the fall. Shows you how smart I am. It didn't work. It's going on and on and on.

And I think that the length of the primary is not helpful to us. I will say that if Senator Obama, who is certainly the front-runner right now, ends up being the nominee, I think the competition has been good for him. I think he's become stronger and tougher, more focused through the course of this campaign, more experienced in a tough national race.

So you know, there's sort of six of one, half dozen of the other. But I do think we're approaching the time and it's going to come naturally where this thing needs to come to an end and we need to start focusing on the fall.

KING: Are you saying, then, to Senator Clinton face the facts?

EDWARDS: No. The one thing I would never do is say to Senator Clinton, who's a strong candidate, and has as much experience in this as anybody around, what she needs to do. She doesn't need advice from me. She's run a strong campaign. I think she's actually as a candidate become stronger. The odds against her have become longer, unfortunately.

And I think she's in a very difficult place. But I do have to say just on a personal note, having been through this now twice, to get up and go out there every morning when everyone's saying it's over, you're not going to win, you need to get out, and face the media and face the public and continue to make your case.

I mean, this woman's made of steel. And she deserves an enormous amount of credit and admiration. I can tell you she has my personal admiration. But I think the reality is that we have a dynamic young strong candidate in Barack Obama who looks like he's going to be the nominee.

KING: What does your party do about Florida and Michigan? Now, you're going to address the convention in Denver.

EDWARDS: Yes, I expect to.

KING: Obviously, you deserve to. What do you think about Florida and Michigan?

EDWARDS: Well, I think we can't disenfranchise the voters in those two states, particularly in Florida after what happened in 2000. So I think the DNC is scheduled to deal with this later this month. I think they will find some fair middle ground resolution that allows the delegations from those two states to be seated. I suspect there will be some division that slightly favors Senator Clinton but doesn't have a great impact on the race.

....KING: Senator Edwards, would you run again for vice president if asked?

EDWARDS: No. I don't have any interest in it, no intention to do it. The cause of my life, Larry, is to do something about poverty in this country, and I'm going to pour my heart and soul into that. I knew you were going to ask me about this.

KING: All right. Hillary quoting an "A.P" story, questioned Obama, can he do well with white working-class voters. What do you make of that? And can he?

EDWARDS: He absolutely can. I mean, this is a good man who has shown throughout his life that he cares about equality, that he cares about everybody in this country having a chance. I mean, he himself came from nothing with a single mom to being able to do -- to being a nominee now, it looks like, for president of the United States.

And his life story itself exhibits what this country's about. And he absolutely -- the people that I grew up with in small town rural southern America who struggle and work hard every day trying to have a better life, they will connect with Barack Obama when they get to know him and they understand where his heart is.

Here's Edwards Sunday, May 11, on Face the Nation with Bob Schieffer:

SCHIEFFER: You sort of danced around the question when you were on some of the morning shows on Friday about whether or not you're ready to endorse anybody. I'm not going to try to keep on with this. Are you going to endorse anybody at this point?

Mr. EDWARDS: I might. I don't think it's a big deal, to be honest with you. I think voters are the ones who are speaking in this process. My feeling all along, in addition to what we talked about earlier and me getting out earlier, I hoped would accelerate us having an earlier nominee.

But my feeling is also that I think that my endorsement or anybody else's endorsement has not particularly helped with the divide. And I think that actually endorsements sometimes make the divide worse.

And what's important here is not me or who I'm for or who I'd vote for or who I support. What's important is that we get united as a party behind our nominee, that we're successful in November. Because the people that I care the most about, you know, the low-income families in this country, working families, people who are having a hard time, those men and women who are putting their lives on the line in Iraq, they're the ones that matter in this, not some particular candidate or some strategic position that somebody's taken.

Again, I don't think Edwards' endorsement has anything to do with who would make a better candidate. It's about ending the growing perception that Obama can't win against John McCain because he can't get rural, blue collar, less wealthy and less educated voters.

That perception was magnified yesterday with Hillary's win in West Virginia. There's concern it will grow when Hillary wins Kentucky. Since Edwards (and other Democrats) believe Obama will ultimately win the nomination, Edwards is trying to nip that line of thinking in the bud.

But, isn't this short-sighted? Shouldn't the focus of Democrats be on which Democratic candidate is better able to beat John McCain in November so we can take back the White House rather than on something as amorphous as which one stands for "change" and has "a new vision?"

And I'm still struck by the fact that Edwards gave no reason other than enthusiasm for choosing Obama and made no reference to McCain. Party unity is one thing and it could have waited three weeks. Winning is important too.

Comments now closed.

Edwards Endorsement Should Lead To Full Seating Of FL/MI

Big Tent Democrat — 2008-05-14T20:49:12-05:00

One good thing to come from John Edwards' endorsement of Barack Obama is that there is absolutely no reason at all now to now seat the full Florida and Michigan delegations. Edwards will now throw his delegates to Obama. In Florida that would mean a 105-80 split in favor of Hillary Clinton. In Michigan that would mean a 73-60 split in favor of Clinton. The total gain for Clinton would 33 delegates, down from 48 delegates.

Barack Obama needs to take the bull by the horns here, tell Donna Brazile that winning in November matters more than her silly turf wars in the DNC, and regain the high ground in Florida and Michigan.

Do it now Barack. For your sake and the sake of the Party.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only.

Edwards Ups the Ante In Kentucky: Thread Four

Big Tent Democrat — 2008-05-14T19:48:36-05:00

John Edwards gave a great rousing speech (see here)for Democratic values. He spoke very gracious and respectful words of Hillary Clinton. And he endorsed Barack Obama. It was a very impressive performance by John Edwards.

There were some effects though. Some intentional - to step on Hillary's huge win in West Virginia and to vouch for Obama among white working class voters. One was not - upping the ante in Kentucky. John Edwards, populist hero with a proven record of connecting with white working class voters has vouched for Barack Obama. Does Kentucky buy it?

The Kentucky contest, previously a foregone conclusion for the Media, now becomes a test. For Barack Obama. He needs to go in to Kentucky, WITH John Edwards, and fight for their votes. He needs to show he cares about the voters of Kentucky. Particularly white working class voters. An interesting development indeed.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Comments closed

John Edwards Endorsement: Thread Three

Jeralyn — 2008-05-14T18:48:39-05:00

He begins with long praise for Hillary and goes into a unity pronouncement. He was good.

Now he's getting to the endorsement.

He starts with issues, which is odd, since the Obama and Hillary are so similar on them.

Update: He's not mentioning one distinction between Hillary and Obama. He's just reciting Democratic values. If you didn't know he was going to endorse Obama, you would have no idea he wasn't going to end by endorsing Hillary.

Now he says the voters have made their choice and there is one man who knows how to create change and it is Obama. So that's the reason for endorsing Obama.

It's not about ending the race, not about who would be a better President or who can better beat McCain. [More...]

The rest of his endorsement is not about Obama but a repeat of his own campaign speeches about One America and poverty.

I heard no reason to support Obama over Hillary other than ending the race and unifying the party, which he calls "One America."

It's over. It could just as easily have been Hillary standing next to him receiving the endorsement. Did anyone hear an explanation of why Obama would be a better candidate to win against John McCain?

Update: My take having heard the speech: The party leaders are concerned that Hillary's win in W.Va. and her anticipated win in KY, although it won't be by the same margin, is causing people to conclude Obama can't win in November against McCain. They want to cut that argument in the bud and by rallying behind Obama now, they're hoping to redirect the conversation.

Comments closed, new thread here.

Pro-Choice Women's Group Says NARAL is Wrong

Jeralyn — 2008-05-14T18:38:56-05:00

Press Release from the National Women’s Political Caucus: (received by e-mail)

The National Women’s Political Caucus is disappointed to learn of NARAL Pro-Choice America’s endorsement of Senator Obama today. The Caucus knows Hillary Clinton to be a clear leader and a consistent champion of the issues that NARAL and NWPC have in common. We believe that this announcement at this time will divide the choice community at a time when we need to stand united.

As a lawyer, advocate, First Lady, and Senator, Hillary Clinton has stepped up and stood out on matters important to women. When it comes to each woman's ability to make the most personal of life decisions, Hillary has been a consistent and reliable advocate for a woman's right to choose. In fact, she has received numerous awards from both NARAL and Planned Parenthood.

More...

Senator Clinton condemned the Supreme Court's April 2007 decision to allow the government to dictate to women what they can and cannot do about their own health.

She has championed the Prevention First Act, which expands access to family planning services for low income women.

She is an original co-sponsor of the Freedom of Choice Act, federal legislation that would guarantee the right to choose for future generations of women.

In partnership with Senator Murray, Senator Clinton waged a successful battle to get the Food and Drug Administration to make Plan B (the "morning after" pill) available over the counter. This was one of the biggest accomplishments of the pro-choice advocacy community in years.

Senator Clinton made it very clear when she stood on the Senate floor to voice her opposition to Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Alito that one of her major concerns was to keep intact Roe v. Wade. While Senator Obama was also opposed to the nomination of Roberts and Alito, he never mentioned the preservation of Roe v. Wade.

NWPC members in 30 chapters throughout the country join me to say that we are disappointed to learn of NARAL’s endorsement of Senator Obama, and that we stand firm in our support and commitment to the candidacy of Senator Hillary Clinton for President.

John Edwards and Obama Endorsement: Thread Two

Jeralyn — 2008-05-14T18:08:56-05:00

Our first thread on John Edwards endorsement of Barack Obama is already full. Here's another one.

Lots of readers are now getting the John Edwards email seeking donations I mentioned in the last thread.

Coincidentally, John Edwards sent out a request for money today for one of his causes, College for Everyone. The e-mail, which went to everyone who got e-mails from his presidential campaign, is below. Will the media ask if there's a connection between the two?

[More...] The email states:

I want to begin by thanking each of you for all of your support and commitment over the last year. It has meant so much to Elizabeth and me. We have been very busy since January working on the causes that got us into the campaign in the first place -- helping to build the One America we all believe in.
You may have heard me talk about one of those programs called College for Everyone -- a scholarship pilot project that Elizabeth and I started a few years ago in Greene County, North Carolina.
[Goes into description of the program]
That's why I need your help today -- with a tax-deductible donation of $10, $25, $50 or $75, whatever you can afford -- to bring us one step closer to our goal of College for Everyone. By contributing now, you will help fulfill the college dreams of deserving students in Greene County and show the world that if we work together on big and important issues, change is possible.

How much more money do you think he'll raise with his endorsement of Obama today?

Update: This thread is closing a new one is here.

John Edwards to Endorse Obama in One Hour

Jeralyn — 2008-05-14T17:35:56-05:00

Via ABC News:

ABC News' Kate Snow, Raelyn Johnson and Rick Klein Report: Former Sen. John Edwards is endorsing Sen. Barack Obama's presidential candidate Wednesday evening, in a dramatic attempt by the Obama campaign to answer concerns regarding Obama's appeal to working-class voters, several senior Democratic several senior Democratic sources tell ABC News.
The Obama campaign confirms Edwards will endorse Obama at a campaign rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan Wednesday. The event was originally scheduled to start at 7pm ET, but was moved up to 6:20pm ET, presumably to have the announcement make the evening news.

Coincidentally, John Edwards sent out a request for money today for one of his causes, College for Everyone. The e-mail, which went to everyone who got e-mails from his presidential campaign, is below. Will the media ask if there's a connection between the two?

I want to begin by thanking each of you for all of your support and commitment over the last year. It has meant so much to Elizabeth and me. We have been very busy since January working on the causes that got us into the campaign in the first place -- helping to build the One America we all believe in.

You may have heard me talk about one of those programs called College for Everyone -- a scholarship pilot project that Elizabeth and I started a few years ago in Greene County, North Carolina.

[Goes into description of the program]

That's why I need your help today -- with a tax-deductible donation of $10, $25, $50 or $75, whatever you can afford -- to bring us one step closer to our goal of College for Everyone. By contributing now, you will help fulfill the college dreams of deserving students in Greene County and show the world that if we work together on big and important issues, change is possible.

How much more money do you think he'll raise with his endorsement of Obama today?

Update: Comments filled, thread closing, a new one is here.

Another Electability Argument Regarding Caucuses

Jeralyn — 2008-05-14T16:58:49-05:00

It's generally recognized that caucus results are less representative of a state's voters than primary results. Their curtailed voting hours and the lack of early voting, absentee or mail-in voting ensures it. But they count for choosing pledged delegates, so that's water under the bridge.

When it comes to electability arguments for the superdelegates, however, I think there's something they need to consider -- that caucus results vastly undercount one particular segment of voters who will vote in big numbers in the general election: The elderly and infirm, including nursing home residents who weren't mobile enough to attend a caucus but who can vote by absentee ballot in primaries and the general election.

If unable to attend caucuses, and most likely were, their preferences were excluded. This is one more reason I don't think that a superdelegate can equate a caucus win in a particular state with a win in that state against John McCain in November.

The Democratic party needs older voters this year more than ever against John McCain. And they have been coming out in primaries for Hillary. Statistics on our 37 million residents over age 65, 1.9 million of whom live in nursing homes, are below:

America's population over age 65:

In 2006, 37 million people age 65 and over lived in the United States, accounting for just over 12 percent of the total population. Over the 20th century, the older population grew from 3 million to 37 million. The oldest-old population (those age 85 and over) grew from just over 100,000 in 1900 to 5.3 million in 2006.

The states with the largest elderly populations:

In 2006, Florida had the highest proportion of people age 65 and over, 17 percent. Pennsylvania and West Virginia also had high proportions, over 15 percent.

As to gender:

In 2006, women accounted for 58 percent of the population age 65 and over and for 68 percent of the population age 85 and over.

By race:

In 2006, non-Hispanic whites accounted for 81 percent of the U.S. older population. Blacks made up 9 percent, Asians made up 3 percent, and Hispanics (of any race) accounted for 6 percent of the older population.

On to the statistics for nursing home residents:

In 2006, 1.9 million people lived in nursing homes.

The Census Bureau reports:

Females comprised approximately half of the total population, but were nearly 70 percent of the nursing facility population.

Nearly three-in-four residents of nursing facilities were 75 or older. The median age of nursing facility residents was 83.2.

There's been a big difference this year in results from the three states that have held both primaries and caucuses.

Nebraska: Obama won the caucuses. He got 26,000 attendees to Hillary's 12,000. In yesterday's primary, the vote was Obama 46,000 to Hillary 43,000, or 49% to 47%. One explanation for the sharp decline in support is buyer's remorse. Another, more probable explanation is that the caucuses were unrepresentative of the state's voters.

Washington: Obama won the caucuses with 21,000 preferring Obama to 10,000 preferring Hillary, but in the primary held two weeks later, he only won 51% to 46%, 353,000 votes to 315,000 votes. Only the caucus votes were used to determine delegates.

In Texas: Hillary won the primary vote 51% to 47% and by more than 100,000 votes, while Obama won the caucuses, perhaps by as much as 60% to 40%.

The elderly clearly aren't the only group under-represented at caucuses, but they are a somewhat quantifiable one. I attended caucuses in Iowa and Colorado. I saw only a smattering of people who seemed to be over 70 and none looked to me to be in their 80's. I spend every weekend at a nursing home visiting my mother, and almost without exception, the TV's in the residents' rooms are blaring CNN. (Their cable doesn't get Fox or MSNBC). These voters will vote, in person or by absentee or mail-in ballot.

My point: When superdelegates consider electability against John McCain in November, Barack Obama's caucus wins should be among the least important factors. The results are skewed and not representative of the state's total voting population.

More Support For A Unity Ticket

Big Tent Democrat — 2008-05-14T16:54:18-05:00

The Media hates the idea. The Creative Class blogs are apoplectic at the thought of it. But Democrats are strongly in favor:

By a 60 - 33 percent margin, Democrats say Obama should pick Clinton as his vice presidential running mate. "Sen. Hillary Clinton's never-say-die campaign still has lots of fans. Just as in delegates, states, money, you-name-it, Obama leads her in national support - but only by a bit," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Party leaders may be cringing over the potential damage to Democratic chances in November from the endless primary campaign, but two-thirds of the rank-and-file think Clinton ought to keep battling," Carroll added. "The 'dream ticket?' Three out of five Democrats like the idea."

I stand with the strong majority of Democrats on this one.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Government to Rest in Geoff Fieger Trial

Jeralyn — 2008-05-14T15:23:04-05:00

The Government is expected to rest its case against outspoken Michigan lawyer Geoffrey Feiger tomorrow. He's accused of violating campaign finance laws by reimbursing associates for donations to John Edwards and obstruction of justice. His lead counsel is Gerry Spence. (Background here.)

It looks like Fieger's biggest liability is his mouth. Today's headline: "Gym owner says Fieger called him an 'idiot' for speaking to FBI"

Southfield attorney Geoffrey Fieger raised his voice to the owner of his gym and called the man an idiot when he learned the man had spoken to FBI agents who were investigating him, Fieger's criminal trial in federal court was told Wednesday. Shant Gharibian, owner of Exclusive Fitness in West Bloomfield, testified Fieger told him "he must be some kind of idiot" to talk to the FBI. "He raised his voice and yelled at me," Gharibian said.

Only when you get to the end of the article do you learn:

But under cross-examination, Gharibian testified Fieger never told him to lie to the FBI and Fieger told him he believed the reimbursements were legal.

Good luck Geoff and Gerry.

TX Appeals Court Overturns Vioxx Verdict Against Merck

Jeralyn — 2008-05-14T15:12:20-05:00

Via How Appealing, a Texas Court of appeals has reversed the verdict against Merck in the Vioxx case. I found this interesting:

After the trial, a juror admitted borrowing thousands of dollars from [deceased Plainff]Garza's widow, Felicia Garza, although that does not seem to have been a factor in Wednesday's appellate court decision.

The opinion is here.

Will May 31 Be The Biggest Day Of The Campaign?

Big Tent Democrat — 2008-05-14T14:45:21-05:00

There are no primary contests on May 31. But there will be a meeting of the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee where the issue of the Florida and Michigan delegations will be taken up. This meeting will no doubt be the central political event of the day. It will garner a significant amount of coverage. And what will the Democratic Party say to Florida and Michigan on that day, on that stage? During today's Clinton Media Call, I asked about the May 31 RBC meeting:

I asked about the May 31 RBC process whereby the FL/MI question will be decided. I asked specifically who will be participating. I further asked that since the Clinton camp, the Obama camp and the DNC Chair Howard Dean have all said they want the delegations seated, is it possible that a faction of the DNC, led by Donna Brazile, could block the seating of these delegations over the wishes of the candidates and the DNC Chair.

Phil Singer responded that the Clinton campaign is confident that the DNC will act in the best interests of the Party, which is to act in a way that helps the Party win in November, which would mean seating the Florida and Michigan delegations. Phil made the point that if the purpose was to protect the early primary shcedule, that purpose has been served and thus it was time to look towards the best interest of the Party, which required seating the delegates.

In terms of the RBC process, Singer was unsure what would happen as the agenda had not yet been released, but that it would be an open and public process that will be seen by the entire country.

The nation will be watching. And Florida and Michigan will be closely watching. May 31 will be the biggest day left in the Democratic campaign, with serious consequences for the November general election.

By Big Tent Democrat.

NARAL Endorses Obama

Jeralyn — 2008-05-14T14:27:18-05:00

The pro-choice organization NARAL has endorsed Barack Obama.

Of course, they also endorsed Joe Lieberman and had a hand in giving us Justice Sam Alito.

More here and here.

Hillary Picks Up Tenn. Superdelegate After W. VA Win

Jeralyn — 2008-05-14T13:59:08-05:00

Hillary Clinton's win last night in West Virginia has resulted in a superdelegate declaring for support for Hillary today:

Tennessee Automatic Delegate Vicky Harwell announced her support for Hillary Clinton today. Harwell, of Pulaski, is president of the Tennessee Federation of Democratic Women.

"Hillary's decisive victory in West Virginia is the latest evidence that she is the strongest candidate to take on John McCain and win back the White House," Harwell said. "Hillary has the plans, leadership and experience to deliver real results as President."

Hillary got 40 pledged delegates in the TN primary while Obama got 28. Breakdown of Tennessee's 85 delegates below:

Tennessee will send 85 delegates to the Democratic Convention in August. Based on results of the state's Feb. 5 presidential primary, won by Clinton, the New York senator gets 40 committed delegates, while Obama gets 28.

The remaining 17 superdelegates go officially uncommitted, though some have stated publicly who they intend to support.

The four declaring they will back Clinton are Bill Owen of Knoxville, a Democratic National Committee member; Elisa Parker, vice chairwoman of the state party; Jimmie Farris of Memphis, widow of former state Democratic Chairman William Farris; and Myron Lowery, a Memphis city councilman.

The four declaring they will back Obama are U.S. Reps. Steve Cohen of Memphis and Jim Cooper of Nashville, along with state House Speaker Pro Tempore Lois DeBerry of Memphis and former state party Chairman Will T. Cheek of Nashville.

The nine other previously selected Tennessee superdelegates, including Gov. Phil Bredesen and former Vice President Al Gore, have declined to state a preference.