Team Gingrich 2012

Newt leading Romney in Virginia, California, and Pennsylvania

2011-12-14T02:55:00.000-06:00

Virginia:

Gingrich: 41%
Romney: 15
Perry: 8
Bachmann: 8
Santorum: 6
Paul: 6
Huntsman: 3

California:

Newt: 33%
Romney: 25
Paul: 9
Bachmann: 7
Perry: 4
Santorum: 4
Huntsman: 2

Pennsylvania:

Newt: 35
Romney: 18
Santorum (his home state): 18
Paul: 8
Bachmann: 6
Perry: 2

Pew and NBC/WSJ national polls

2011-12-14T02:50:00.000-06:00

Pew shows the national race as Newt 35, Romney 21.

The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll: Newt 40. Romney 23. Further, if it was a two-man race, Newt would beat Romney 59-36%.

New Hampshire poll: Romney 29, Newt 24.

2011-12-14T02:35:00.000-06:00

This is another example of Newt polling much better in the Granite State than any other Republican not named Romney this cycle.

In fact, Newt is now almost within ten points of the average of New Hampshire polls. I'm not the only one who says it, but if Newt wins Iowa and then comes within 10 in New Hampshire (maybe even 15), Romney is going to look incredibly weak going into South Carolina and Florida.

On Monday night, Newt drew a huge crowd -- 1,000 to 1,250 people were in attendance -- which some are saying it's the biggest event in New Hampshire this year.

Can you spot the outlier in the recent Iowa polls?

2011-12-14T02:28:00.001-06:00

A lot of attention was paid to the Public Policy Polling poll released Tuesday that showed Iowa tightening considerably, with Newt at 22 and Ron Paul at 21.

However, the media -- so willing to jump on any poll that shows Newt slipping -- ignores that this poll appears to be an outlier at this moment.

Another poll was released Tuesday afternoon that showed Newt at 27 and Paul at 17. And surprise, that poll received a tiny fraction of the coverage the PPP one did.

An analysis by Neil Stevens of RedState.com gives a good explanation on why PPP -- a very reliable polling firm -- is likely way off on this poll. They are including independents and Democrats in their poll.

Stevens:

Every time, and I mean every time, I bring up the fact that the Iowa Caucuses are closed [meaning only Republicans can vote in the GOP Caucuses], the reply is that “You can register up to the day of the caucuses to participate.” That’s true. But if Paul is not able to motivate his supporters to register, and if his people aren’t actually committed to caucus for Paul, then his support is soft, and isn’t going to show up.

So while these independents and Democrats are telling a pollster they would support Paul, they have to be considered pretty unlikely to turn out on January 3rd and vote for Paul.

What does the poll look like if only Republicans are included?

Newt 25. Paul 17.

Remember what the other Iowa poll from Tuesday looked like: Newt 27. Paul 17. Looks kinda similar, doesn't it?

And the average of Iowa polls from the past week: Newt 29, Romney 17, Paul 16.

So even though it's inconvenient for the media -- which wants to report about Newt falling more than anything -- the Public Policy Polling survey looks way out of whack with other Iowa polls.

"We understand a load of crap when we see it."

2011-12-10T02:55:00.000-06:00

That's what Linda Upmeyer, the Iowa chair of Newt 2012, said of Mitt Romney (or, more accurately, his surrogates') attacks on Newt.

Former Rep. Greg Ganske, who was elected to Congress in 1994 and served under Gingrich when he was speaker of the House, suggested Romney only wanted to use the caucuses to tear down Gingrich ahead of the New Hampshire primary.

"Maybe he doesn't care. Maybe he doesn't care about winning Iowa. He just wants to tear down the speaker here and then focus on New Hampshire," Ganske said.

Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida polls

2011-12-08T02:52:00.003-06:00

CNN released a batch of four polls today at 4 PM Eastern:

Iowa: Newt 33, Romney 20.

New Hampshire: Romney 35, Gingrich 26.

South Carolina: Newt 43, Romney 20.

Florida: Newt 48, Romney 25.

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In Iowa, Newt gets 35% support from women and 32% from men.

North Carolina: Newt 51, Romney 14, Bachmann 8

2011-12-07T07:10:00.000-06:00

Link to poll.

Newt's favorability: 73-13%.

15% list Newt as their second choice, second only to Romney at 18, meaning Newt still could move up.

Newt beats Romney by 47 points among very conservative voters and by 17 among moderates.

Newt's worst age group? 18-29. He's "only" at 63-32 with them.

Colorado poll: Newt 37, Romney 18, Bachmann 9

2011-12-07T06:51:00.000-06:00

Link to poll.

Newt's favorability: 64-23. Among men: 67-23; with women, 60-24.

He's still the second choice of 18% of voters, just beating out Romney, which suggests Newt still has some room to grow in the polls.

Newt leads Romney 42-9 among tea party voters and 34-23 with non-tea partiers.

Favorability among age groups:

18-29: 53-18%
30-45: 54-28
46-65: 65-27
65 and older: 76-13

He gets the most support from each age group.

CBS/NYT Iowa poll: Newt 31, Romney 17, Paul 16, Perry 11

2011-12-06T15:32:00.000-06:00

More results to come at 6:30 Eastern, says CBSNews.com.

Gallup National Poll: Newt 37, Romney 22, everyone else in single digits

2011-12-06T14:28:00.000-06:00

Newt's 37% is the highest of any candidate in a Gallup Poll this year.

Conservatives: Newt 41, Romney 20, Paul 8.

Moderate/Liberal: Newt 28, Romney 26, Perry 9.

Tea Party: Newt 47, Romney 17, Bachmann 8.

Non-Tea Party: Romney 28, Newt 27, Paul 10.

This is what the polls have been showing lately: Newt cleans up among the Tea Party and conservative voters (a certain overlap between the two, of course) and more than holding his own among moderates.

Newt is uniting the party like no other candidate this election cycle -- others have won the conservative vote, Romney has held the moderate vote well -- but no one has been able to win both conservatives and moderates.

East: Newt 31, Romney 30.

Midwest: Newt 36, Romney 22.

South: Newt 42, Romney 15.

West: Newt 34, Romney 27.

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18-34 age group: Newt 26, Romney 21, Paul 18.

35-54: Newt 35, Romney 22.

55+: Newt 46, Romney 23.

Good news for political nerds like myself: Gallup will start doing a daily national poll of the Republican Primary until a nominee is decided.

Gallup: Newt seen as "most acceptable" nominee to fellow Republicans

2011-12-06T03:20:00.000-06:00

62% say Newt is acceptable. Mitt Romney, at 54%, is next.

Following a recent trend, Newt beats Romney soundly among tea party and conservative voters -- 82% of tea partiers view Newt as acceptable while only 58% say the same of Romney -- and is essentially tied with the former Massachusetts Governor among moderates.

As long as Newt can remain competitive among moderates, Newt will have no problem winning most contests.

This poll confirms another trend: Newt wins big among older voters. Among 18-54 year olds, Newt is seen as acceptable by 55% to Romney's 50%. Among 55+ voters, the numbers are 73-62.

ABC/Washington Post Iowa poll: Newt 33, Romney 18, Paul 18

2011-12-06T03:13:00.000-06:00

Link to poll.

70% list Newt's "political experience" -- you know, those little things like welfare reform, 11 million new jobs, and four balanced budgets -- as a reason to support him.

With 31% to Romney's 20%, Newt is best seen in dealing with the economy.

Newt is also seen as dealing best with immigration. 38% list it as a "major reason to support"; 15% say it's a "major reason to oppose."

By a margin of 42-18, Newt beats Romney when likely voters are asked who has the best experience.

PPP Iowa survey: Newt 27, Paul 18, Romney 16

2011-12-06T02:52:00.002-06:00

This confirms the two weekend polls in Iowa more or less.

Newt's favorability: 62-31%.

When asked who has the best chance to defeat Obama, 33% answered Newt and 22% answered Romney.

Public Policy Polling asked this question, which is basically a question on Newt's immigration position:

Do you think people who have immigrated to the United States illegally but have lived here 25 years, have paid taxes, and have obeyed the law should be deported or not?

Only 29% answered they should be deported. 44% said they should not. So it doesn't appear Newt's position is going to hurt him much.

Newt's not winning only because of his debate performance. He wins among those who have paid "a lot of attention," "some attention," and "not much attention at all" to the debates.

Newt is tied for first among those who are between 18 and 29 years old with Paul and Romney. Newt is second, 3 points behind Paul, among the 30-45 year old group. Newt leads with 46-65 year olds as well as 66 and up. Newt's best age group is the 66-and-up, winning 37% to Romney's 18%.

Newt is four points behind Romney and Paul among moderates, but blows them away among conservative and very conservative voters. Earlier "non-Romneys" were not able to hang that close to Romney among moderates.

There's a great deal of overlap, but the split between the tea party and non-tea party vote tells a similar story. Newt gets 35% of those inside the movement, Bachmann 23, Paul 14, Romney 4(!).

But whereas Cain, Perry, and Bachmann may have beat Romney by similar margins among tea party voters, Romney only beats Newt by one point among those who are not in the tea party. That margin was much wider with Cain, Perry, and Bachmann.

Marist Iowa poll: Newt 26, Romney 18, Paul 17

2011-12-05T15:20:00.001-06:00

Newt leads among tea party voters, 32 to 16% for Paul and 13 for Cain.

Newt has the firmest support, even beating Ron Paul (a huge surprise to me).

Gingrich ties Paul on the question who most shares your values.

For those who say electability the most important issue for them, Newt wins 38 to Romney's 25.

By a margin of 36-26, Newt beat Romney on question of who is most experienced to govern.

Newt leads among both men and women.

Gingrich leads in all four regions of Iowa.

He wins both among those making under $75,000 and those making more.

He wins by 17% among Evangelicals.

Here's the link.

Former New Hampshire U.S. Senator Bob Smith endorses Newt

2011-12-04T02:52:00.000-06:00

Smith said in his endorsement, “It is not enough to simply defeat President Obama. We must replace him with an inspirational, experienced, conservative leader, with the guts to challenge and change the establishment. Newt Gingrich is that leader.”

Here's the full story.

Newt 2012 has raised $5.5 million this quarter

2011-12-04T02:48:00.000-06:00

"R.C. Hammond, a Gingrich spokesman, said the campaign has grown to 10 staff members in South Carolina, eight in New Hampshire, six in Iowa and two in Florida. By comparison, Mr. Romney has five staff members in Iowa, 10 in New Hampshire, and three in South Carolina," writes the Wall Street Journal.

And: “I watched him during the debates, and I think he’s the real deal,” said Richard Bailey, an aerospace analyst who traveled from San Diego to help.

I met Richard this weekend. He's very bright and a strong Newt supporter. He, like me, plans to make a couple of more trips before caucuses on January 3rd.

Des Moines-Register poll: Newt 25, Paul 18, Romney 16, Bachmann 8, Cain 8

2011-12-04T02:34:00.001-06:00

The poll was (obviously) done before Herman Cain announced he was suspending his campaign, but he was clearly on the downside already.

Where do those voters go? Newt. Every poll says that. The only question is how many. My guess is the number is enough to effectively put Newt at 30%.

18% of all voters said Newt was their second choice, suggesting that as other campaigns fall off he can pick up even more ground.

We still need to keep pushing, but currently Newt is the clear frontrunner nationally, in Iowa, in South Carolina, and in Florida. He's running a close second in New Hampshire.

The trick now is to make sure our voters get to the polls and caucus sites.

Many have noted that this was about the time that Mike Huckabee shot ahead of Mitt Romney in Iowa four years ago.

(Audio) Newt's interview with Dana Loesch

2011-12-03T03:22:00.000-06:00

Link to interview.

Newt: "the one candidate who has a real record of implementing conservative government"

2011-12-03T03:08:00.000-06:00

So says Richard Viguerie, the conservative and the person who helped develop direct mail outreach.

He wrote recently:

"Gingrich, on the other hand, is well known to many conservative leaders who recognize that, despite his self-acknowledged errors and flaws, he is the one candidate who has a real record of implementing conservative government.

Balancing the budget, welfare reform and a host of other conservative initiatives that Gingrich championed as Speaker are not mere campaign rhetoric -- they actually happened."

Newt's attention to detail on South Carolina issues

2011-12-03T03:03:00.000-06:00

Robert Costa wrote in National Review:

Watching the crowds, one saw that Gingrich’s substance on regional issues was crucial to his success. During stops in Charleston and Bluffton, for example, Gingrich’s command on seaport policy, an arcane topic within the Beltway, was largely ignored by campaign reporters. But South Carolina Republicans noticed.

The whole article is well worth reading.

And Tony Lee of Human Events tweeted:
You can tell Newt has LISTENED a lot to many conservative communities. He is speaking to visceral concerns many conservatives have.

The crowds Newt is attracting in Iowa

2011-12-03T02:59:00.000-06:00

My three trips to Iowa -- which have started on July 15, September 29, and December 1 -- really demonstrate the upward arc of Newt's campaign.

In July, Newt's campaign was close to its nadir. I had every confidence that Newt would rebound, but there's no doubting that the campaign was hurting at that time. One of the reasons, however, I was still confident that Newt's support would increase was that everywhere we went -- whether an Iowa Cubs baseball game, a tea party event in Lamoni, or the Dallas County Fair -- people were very excited about Newt and praised his ideas.

That showed me that Newt's poll position -- he was in 5th place -- at that time was not because his message was not popular. It was in large part because the media was calling the campaign dead every day, and people were not eager to jump on board with a campaign that might end any day. (The most irresponsible thing that a number of reporters did was suggest that Newt might drop out at any time, despite no evidence to that.)

So, I thought, if Newt could get a small bump in the polls, that would prove the campaign's viability to others who were fond of Newt's solutions. I think it's fair to suggest Newt's Ames Debate performance -- when he called out Chris Wallace's "Mickey Mouse questions" -- was what got Newt 2012 started in an upward trajectory.

I was back in Iowa about a month-and-a-half later for Newt's unveiling of the 21st Century Contract with America. Newt was now essentially tied for third in the polls. You could sense the growing momentum.

Jen Green wrote on SteveDeace.com that it was about this time that Newt 2012 really started picking up steam. "After reading [the Contract's section on reforming the judiciary] I knew it was going to be a game-changer," Green wrote.

And this trip this weekend is really showing how much different Newt's lead in the polls is than those of Perry, Bachmann, Cain, etc.

Newt's first event Thursday was set up for 370 people. More than 500 showed up. Jason Clayworth of the Des Moines-Register noted that the crowd was bigger than the one Mitt Romney was able to draw at the same venue.

Newt's next appearance also had about 500 people.

The Polk County GOP Victory Dinner later that night had 400 people.

Newt -- whether it's South Carolina, Florida, or Iowa -- has been packing in the crowds recently. Bigger crowds than any other candidate this year.

Iowa -- and another Florida poll

2011-12-02T03:13:00.001-06:00

I hope to catch up with the other news from Thursday in the next day. I wasn't able to do other posts because I drove up to Iowa in the morning.

(I do want to mention the new Florida poll. It showed Newt having 50% support. The last three Florida polls -- in order -- 41%, 47, 50.)

A ton of buzz surrounded Newt. It was great meeting the Iowa team. And I look forward to working with them the next couple of days.

Very exciting times. June 9 seems so long ago now.

Rasmussen poll: Newt 38, Romney 17

2011-12-02T01:47:00.000-06:00

Jeffrey H. Anderson writes in The Weekly Standard that the poll "suggests that Gingrich is uniting the Tea Party and establishment wings of the Republican Party. The poll shows that among likely Republican primary voters who do not consider themselves to be members of the Tea Party, Gingrich is winning by 11 percentage points -- 32 to 21 percent (over Romney). Among those who do consider themselves to be members of the Tea Party, he’s winning by 37 points -- 47 to 10 percent (over Romney and Herman Cain). Among those who aren’t sure, he’s winning by 26 points -- 42 to 16 percent (over Romney)."

The Public Policy Polling surveys in Florida and Montana Wednesday showed the same thing -- that Newt is winning both the moderate and tea party vote. Nobody -- not Romney, not Perry, etc. -- has done that this year.

Rasmussen: Newt 45, Obama 43

2011-11-30T16:04:00.001-06:00

From the story:

The Newt Gingrich surge has moved him to the top of the polls in Iowa, big gains in New Hampshire and now a two-point edge over President Obama in a hypothetical general election match-up.

Louisiana poll: Newt 31, Romney 23, Cain 12, Perry 11

2011-11-30T16:01:00.001-06:00

“If Rick Perry can’t do better than fourth place in a neighboring state that has a popular Republican governor supporting him, then where can he do well? So this isn’t a good sign for Rick Perry at all,” Faucheux said.

Link to story.