Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets

TBT - Daily Candlesticks

2011-02-08T09:38:00.000-05:00

TBT a buy when RSI(3) crosses above 30

TBT - Daily Candlesticks: "

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Updated APPL chart

2010-11-08T18:37:00.000-05:00

AAPL - Daily Candlesticks: "

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$SPX - Weekly OHLC Bars

2010-08-24T10:03:00.000-04:00

$SPX - Weekly OHLC Bars: "

It might be early, but if the SPX starts moving lower I will start paying more attention to its retracement levels from its low in March 09 to its high in April 10. Support should be around 1008. A close below 1000 could mean a move toward 943.

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AAPL - Daily Candlesticks

2010-08-12T10:08:00.000-04:00

AAPL - Daily Candlesticks: "

Apple looks like a buy so far. Both RSI and CCI are in the oversold areas. A cross out of that area would confirm the buy.

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UCO - Fibonacci Retracement levels

2010-08-03T10:28:00.000-04:00

UCO - Daily Candlesticks: "

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Support and Resistance hit by SPX

2010-06-21T23:43:00.000-04:00

The SPX bounced off both its 50% and 38% retracement lines today. The VIX seemed to lead the sell-off today as it turned higher before the SPX went lower. However it looks as if the retracement lines will offer some clarity for buy/sell points.

$SPX - Daily OHLC Bars:

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$SPX - Daily OHLC Bars

2010-06-21T00:08:00.000-04:00

The SPX broke through resistance at the 38% retracement level and looks to be heading toward the 1130 50% level. The RSI and CCI indicators both have shown buy signals as they have both crossed above their mid line. The Wm%R is close to confirming the trend upward as it is very close to crossing above the 50 line.

Another signal worth noting is the CBOE total put/call ratio, started out around 1 the beginning of last week. It has since then come down, however that has been a very strong buy signal in the past as it has seldom ever happened.

$SPX - Daily OHLC Bars: "

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UCO - Daily Candlesticks

2010-06-17T00:59:00.001-04:00

UCO has its 3 retracement levels shown in this chart. Also the crossing of the middle line in RSI and the 0 line in CCI shows that the stock will be entering a bullish run. Also the projections from the bottom are as follows:

61.8% - 10.0551

100% - 10.8

138.2% - 11.5449

161.8% - 12.0051

200.0% - 12.75

261.8% - 13.9551

It is worth noting the relationships between the retracement levels and the projection levels, especially a 161.8% projection coincides directly with the 61.8% retracement of the entire move. Something to keep an eye on.

$SPX - Daily Candlesticks

2010-06-17T00:42:00.000-04:00

The fibonacci retracement lines suggest the SPX has some resistance on the way. It is currently exactly at a 38% retracement, or 1114, from the last big move down from 1217 to 1050. Next stop would be 1133.50. A breakout from the 62% retracement line would suggest that the last move down was just a correction in an upward movement.

The RSI and CCI are both giving bullish signs however as they crossed their mid-lines upward. A cross of the middle line has given buy or sell signals in the past, depending on the direction of the cross.

$SPX - Daily Candlesticks: "

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Taking profits in strength

2009-09-24T07:10:00.004-04:00

With the DOW pushing 10,000 and the S&P500 pushing 1,100, I just have to be tempted to take money off the table. I'm going to be selling into any spurts of strength. To many euphoric posts on cnbc.com about the market rising, little people coming back, plus I am starting to feel anxious that I am missing the rally and want to put more money in... easily a reason to take money out for me. No one has ever gone broke taking a profit.

Apple and Goldman Sachs entry points

2009-09-02T12:00:00.004-04:00

I am waiting for both of these stocks to come in a bit. Goldman Sachs and Apple have been a buy everytime the Willams %R has turned oversold while the 50-day moving average has been slanting upward, and RSI is under 50. Here is my example of Goldman Sachs, I will wait for the Wm%R to become oversold, as the RSI is already under 50. Also the closer the price gets to the MA50 the better the entry point because my stop-loss will be a decisive close under the MA50.

Apple will have to come in a bit more for it to be a buy, however with its iPod event coming up on the 9th, and the recent announcement of the iPhone in China, there might not be time to wait. So I will follow Apple more closely with other indicators, and look for breakouts

Watching AAPL and PGF

2009-09-02T08:19:00.003-04:00

I have Apple on my watch list right now, looking for a good entry point to buy. Still some research to do on that...

Already holding PGF, I would like to add to that position as the dividend now is around 9%

Citigroup trade closed

2009-09-01T16:04:00.003-04:00

Sold out of my Citigroup calls, after filling its last gap hitting $4.52. Took a loss. Looking for a new trade.

Citigroup buy/sell point coming close

2009-09-01T11:17:00.003-04:00

I am still holding Citigroup and have recently bought more on the way down. There is still support for Citigroup at $4.58, and the closer it gets to that point, the better a buy it is. Mainly because the stop-loss will be a close under $4.58, so the closer you can buy it to that, the less money there is to lose. A close under that level and I am selling out of my C IP options, taking the loss, and looking for a new trade. As of now do I think it looks good? No way - no how, but I have to stick to my plan.

S&P 500 not in correction mode... yet

2009-09-01T11:02:00.002-04:00

I am still a buyer of stocks until I see the S&P 500 close under it's support of 1014. You can see in the chart that there has been significant past resistance and support at this level. As of right now it is under that point, but I will look for the close to have confirmation.

Citigroup is a Buy on This Ascending Triangle Breakout

2009-08-27T13:11:00.003-04:00

I have been following C now since August 7th in search for a breakout of an apparent ascending triangle pattern. Recently the requirements were met for me to take a long position. C broke out over its resistance around 4.25-4.50, by gapping up on above average volume. It then retested the old resistance and appeared to now use it as a support.

The characteristics of an ascending triangle are that once a break-out has occurred, you can use the longest price range of the triangle as a projection point upwards. In this case the longest price range was from around 4.48 high to a 2.25 low. The difference there being 2.23. So I will be looking for at least a $2 move if C does not fall under it's new support of $4.50.

Along with the price pattern, there is also a big benefit of C making solid closes above $5. There are a few reasons this $5 mark is important:

Mutual fund managers will be allowed to buy Citigroup again. Many of the funds charters restrict their managers from buying or holding stocks under $5.00
Many brokerage houses consider any stock under $5 speculative and discourage trading them. A lot of the time making their clients sign more paper work in order to do so.
A "penny stock," according to SEC interpretation, is an equity trading for less than $5 a share that is not traded on the listed markets of the NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ. This perception of riskiness in sub-$5 dollar stocks outside the major exchanges has definitely influenced the perception off all sub-$5 stocks, even those highly liquid and more transparent exchange traded stocks.

With that I have bought a few $5.00 Septemper Calls, and would consider buying more on any above average volume close over $5. And my Exit strategy is to sell if C closes below $4.50.

SPX Projections

2009-08-25T10:15:00.003-04:00

With the SPX closing above it's past resistance level between 1014-18, I can now use the past highs and lows to make projections using the fibonacci sequence. From the March low, to the June high, to the July higher low, the projection numbers from the July low are around:

61.8% = 1050

100% = 1160

138% = 1270

It is also good to note that the 50% retracement level from the all time high is around 1120. So you can see an increasing importance of resistance levels in the area of 1120-60.

However I am still maintaining my stance on being cautious. I am now looking for the SPX to hit around 1050 to take more profits.

Looking for a SPX close

2009-08-13T10:59:00.004-04:00

Market looks strong today. I am still not buying until I get some kind of confirmation. The SPX still has its resistance holding around that 1014-1018 area. A close above that with a good pop in volume and I will start looking for long trades again. Otherwise if the SPX can't break through its resistance I am looking for support around 940-960. I would like to bet that there will be a breakout to the topside but all betting has done for me in the past is get me cro-barred.

SPX retracement levels

2009-08-11T13:49:00.002-04:00

SPX bounced off its 38.2% retracement level almost to the dollar. A 38.2% would have been 1014, the SPX rose to 1018 before starting down. I'm not shorting based on this, however it was wise to be cautious and take profits. The chart I have here shows the fibonacci retracement levels from SPXs last dip to its last high. A correction into the 940-960 area seems to be the best bet, and at that point I will start buying again... slowly. As the SPX rises and proves to beat resistance over its last high at 1018 with good volume, I will buy stocks more aggressively. As of right now, this correction is long over-due.

C on its way to breaking out of an acsending triangle?

2009-08-07T10:44:00.002-04:00

I found C today coming close to its resistance level at around $4.25. As the chart suggests, a close above that resistance line, with high volume, would send the stock higher. This is something I will keep my eye on as the days go by.

AAPL Day Trade - New Entry Point

2009-08-06T08:23:00.002-04:00

The last 2 days did not give much of a solid entry to AAPL. However after yesterdays move lower, the technicals moved in favor of a much more defined entry point. I used a moving avg along with the Force Index in order to determine when this trade would be ready to enter. In the chart below I pointed out what happens when you get a rising EMA(13) moving avg along with a divergence with a negative Force Index(2). It usually signals a good buy point when the price breaks out from the previous days high. I buy on the break out to give me a better chance of catching a stock on the way up rather than trying to pick a bottom.

In this case yesterdays high was $167.39. Any movement over that with good volume behind it and I will enter a trade. I never want to lose more than 2% of my accounts value in a single trade so I will place a stop at that number or the previous days low. (whatever ends up being less of a loss)

AAPL Day Trade

2009-08-04T08:40:00.004-04:00

After making a little money on my HD trade, today I want to try short term day trade for AAPL (Apple). What I will do today is enter the trade when AAPL reaches a Fibonacci retracement from yesterdays price action. Upon finding support, I will buy a couple August 175 calls. I'm looking for a profit of 15-20%, then I'm out. These are the retracement levels for yesterdays price action:

I'm sure that APPL would keep going up past where I sell it, however as I have posted in the past, the market is over due for a correction and is coming up on very key resistance levels. Any over bought indications around this time would leave me very nervous about being long while the market was closed over night.

If, however, APPL retreats and finds no support, and breaks its previous days low, I will call off my trade and re-evaluate tomorrow.

HD Trade Still Looks Good

2009-08-03T07:37:00.005-04:00

A check up on the HD chart shows that the trade is still profitable. Price is still going up without breaching the previous days low, while exceeding the previous days high. My price target remains the same at $26.82. My new stop loss is at Fridays low of $25.80.

**Update**

Well HD cross its low for the previous day, so I was stopped out and took profits. While the stock still continued to go up, I'm still happy to have a profit and will either look for a new trade or a new entry point.

Exit Strategy for HD and Possible Resistance for SPX

2009-07-31T08:39:00.005-04:00

HD's new stop loss is at yesterdays low of $25.53. So aside from a severe lower open, it is safe to call this trade successful. The price I will be looking to take profits will be around $26.82, which was the highest high of the last few weeks. If it gets close to there today I will be closing out this trade, mainly because I want to stay cautious of a big correction.

Another chart I can't ignore is the long term SPX. I don't believe it is a sell signal, but I do believe it is a reason to be a little cautious and look to take profits. Using the Fibonacci retracement ratios, we are just about at a 38% retracement from the '08 highs.

My Trade on HD-Home Depot

2009-07-30T08:18:00.003-04:00

I entered a trade 2 days ago based on a divergence in HD's weekly uptrend and its daily price being oversold. This is usually a good buy point. I bought the stock on its break out of the previous days (Mondays) high, and keep adjusting my stop loss to the previous days low. A breach of that would not be a good sign and show that the trend is weakening.

Right now I have my stop loss at $25.12