Technical view by Nooresh

Ranbaxy – A stock to keep on radar.

Nooresh — Thu, 24 May 2012 15:01:10 +0000

Forming a huge 200 point channel.

A breakout with volumes will take it into new 52 week highs.

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Mahindra & Mahindra – Near strong support levels.

Nooresh — Thu, 24 May 2012 14:51:31 +0000

Mahindra & Mahindra :

The stock has been finding strong supports around 620-640 levels almost for the last 1 year or more.

Will it oblige and give a bounce – Seems probable. A price action above 660 with volumes one can take a trade with a stop of 640 and a target of 700.

Happy Trading,

Nooresh Merani

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BHEL – RSI positive divergence , 2008 lows , Falling Wedge

Nooresh — Mon, 21 May 2012 18:10:42 +0000

Interesting trade for short term.

BHEL expect a good jump on sustaining 210. Either get in momentum or with a stoploss of 199 now.

Regards,

Nooresh

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S&P CNX Defty very close to December/January lows

Nooresh — Mon, 21 May 2012 17:56:17 +0000

So every dollar that came in December is back to square one. Maybe thats the reason FIIs dont seem to be selling much as per the data.

Regards,

Nooresh

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Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nifty all set to get into panic bottom. If bought hold if not Buy today.

Nooresh — Fri, 18 May 2012 03:39:43 +0000

DOW Jones — Nearing the 200 day moving average and getting oversold. Supports at 12000-12200.

S&P 500—Supports seen around 1280-1270 levels.

Nifty — Highly oversold. Further fall to 4600-4550 is also possible but it is a time to just sit back and relax with your holdings or buy more.

Personal View:

First to start with had a view that 5100 would hold and we may breakout above 5600 ! . This has fallen flat on my face.

Recently did expect 4950/4800 to hold and that is taken of and we may even end up at 4550-4750 band in the near term.

Although have got this move totally wrong and got to accept it when you do so. Quite a lot of stocks are down to seriously cheap levels but as of yesterday we are totally invested and may get leveraged here.

Sitting at a cut of 15% notional is very difficult but we need to go through this pain to enjoy the gain later.

Sentiments are at the lowest – The world almost ended in 2008 and a new rally started in 2009 out of nowhere. Will not be surprised by a bounce in June and big rally ending into the year from September to December — Yes very difficult to fathom it but will stick my neck out.

On the simple p-e basis we are quoting at 12-13 times forward earnings , Market cap to gdp ratio and many other parameters are close to December levels. USD-INR is above dec levels ( i thought it would not go above 52)

All in all bottomline – Investments made at 5000-4600 will hurt you for quite some time but will get relief in June and a good gain by december.

Happy Investing,

Nooresh Merani

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Stocks at Support Levels.

Nooresh — Wed, 16 May 2012 10:52:57 +0000

Below is a list of stocks with their charts at support levels.

Download the file from here – http://www.analyseindia.com/analyseindia/readPost.jsp?postid=166

Happy Investing,

Nooresh

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Bank of Baroda and Hindalco – Watchout for bottom fishing

Nooresh — Tue, 15 May 2012 18:30:20 +0000

Bank of Baroda — One can look to slowly accumulate.

Hindalco … A good trade would be above 121 in momentum.

On the index continue to look for 4800 as a review point and 55 USD-INR. Sentiments are terrible, pessimism is at peak. Good setup for a rally in June.

Happy Investing,

Nooresh

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Nifty – RSI at sub 30. Highly Oversold – Bottoming out in next few sessions.

Nooresh — Sun, 13 May 2012 14:28:04 +0000

-> I have just plotted Nifty with the RSI since 2007 and the various bottoms.

-> As per this the general market characteristics is as follows

a) RSI – 26-29

The market starts getting oversold around 26-29 band and either it reverses right away or makes another bottom in the range of 50-150 points when it first hits this band with a positive divergence. The reversal is very sharp and goes up by a good 5-8% at least.

b) RSI – 20-25

This happens very rarely and in extreme panic conditions with a very High Option Volatility ( India VIX ) and in cases of very bad global conditions or margins and overall fear.

RSI did closer to 20-25 band in January 2008 ( two lower circuits ) , October 2008 ( Lehmann Panic and Global Crisis ) , August 2008 ( India Vix at 45 and global panic ).

So if we look at the current 28.8 it is very close to the first type of bottoming case. Also the India Vix is at 20-25 levels indicating less fear. Global Markets have not panicked and are closer to recent highs.

This indicates over the next 3-5 sessions or maximum 2 weeks we may either reverse from 4880-4920 or make a new lows with a positive divergence.

Although its generally a difficult thing to timing the bottom and we also go wrong most of the times by a good margin. In our recent report on USD-INR and Nifty had mentioned as 5000-5050 to watch for and buy with a downside risk to 4900-4950.

Now we are pretty close to it and simply put we continue to keep the bullish stance ( though its hurting now for a week ) will review it only on a close below 4800 on weekly basis.

Bottoming out in any markets is a painful process with fear increasing. The sentiments have never been so bad in the last 4-5 years apart from 2008. Last i saw such pessimism was in December 2011.

Another technical chart shows how critically placed the Nifty is. Its the low volumes in the fall and slow in magnitude suggests its more a corrective move.

-> 61.8% retracement at 4950, 73.6% retracement at 4810.

-> Very close to the long term downchannel for the last 1 year or more.

-> Long term trendline since 2008 comes at 4800.

Bottomline :

With RSi oversold, huge pessimism, long term supports, low volumes its setting up for a bottoming out process. It can be done in a day or two or take a max of 2 weeks.

Even if Nifty were to break down we will get a decent bounce from current zones.

Sustaining above recent daily highs of 5030/5140 will need to be watched out for confirming a major bottom in place.

We believe the current formation could be one of the very important bottoms for medium to long term. And expect June to be a much better month.

Disclosure: We are almost 80-90% invested and may look even going leveraged on sharp corrections on the long side. Have deployed cash over the last 5-6 sessions and taking a notional hit on the holdings which could be 7-10% also. Ready to deploy the rest cash and even a bit of leverage over the next 3-5 sessions ideally.

It clearly states my bias towards the bullish side. We are ready to take a 15% knock on the portfolio, be patient over the next 3-6 months for returns and so investors / traders should do their own risk management and research before following any of the above study and advice.

Happy Investing,

Nooresh Merani

Analyse India Market Solutions Private Limited.

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BHEL — Available at 5-7 year support zones.

Nooresh — Fri, 11 May 2012 05:15:22 +0000

BHEL – The stock is available at 5-7 year support zones.

Either the situation is as bad as 2008 for the sector or we should turnaround from current levels.

Can keep a closing stoploss of 200.

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Bank Nifty – Set for a bounce back from 9200-9500.

Nooresh — Wed, 09 May 2012 06:17:02 +0000

Bank Nifty – Cluster of supports.

1) 50% retracement level

2) Long term parallel channel.

3) Short Term Parallel channel.

Upside resistance at 10000-10500.

Top Bets – ICICI Bank and Axis Bank.Available at 50-61% retracement.

Risky plays SBI and PNB.

Happy Investing,

Nooresh Merani

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