HDFC BANK – The Largest Weight in Nifty ( 10.56% )

Near lows of last 5 years. Hardly any return from Pre Covid highs.

What is your view? Comment!

1) Stops at 720-735 & bounces.
2) Stops at 640-680 & bounces
3) Major bottom in 1 or 2 and Rally.
3) Break down totally.

Markets leave clues — learn how to read them.

Join us for an exclusive workshop on Technical Analysis for Investors, where you will gain practical insights into chart reading, trend identification, and market behaviour.

 Hotel Tunga International, Andheri (E), Mumbai
 13 June 2026 | 9 AM – 6 PM
 Price: ₹2,500/-

A focused session for investors looking to improve their market understanding and decision-making.

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Reliance Inds (8.27%) and ICICI Bank (8.32%) are near important support levels in the Nifty50.

Very close to the lows made in March.

HDFC+ICICI+Reliance=27% of Nifty.

Nifty Gap = 23150 & March lows = 22180

Nifty – The Range is Set. 

<p>The post HDFC Bank, Reliance Inds, ICICI Bank and Nifty50 – All near important supports. Mumbai Seminar 13th June first appeared on Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh.</p>

• Analysing markets using market breadth data
• DIIs FIIs and Currency Moves
• How smallcap and midcap have performed vs largecaps after March 2026
• Understanding different market cycles
• Current lagards to keep on watch
• Setting the right return expectations
• A new batch of entrepreneurs are coming !!

Technical Analysis For Investors

Markets leave clues — learn how to read them.

Join us for an exclusive workshop on Technical Analysis for Investors, where you will gain practical insights into chart reading, trend identification, and market behaviour. 

Hotel Tunga International, Andheri (E), Mumbai
 13 June 2026 | 9 AM – 6 PM
 Price: ₹2,500/-

A focused session for investors looking to improve their market understanding and decision-making.

For more details:
 +91 7977801488

Follow the link to purchase:
https://services.nooreshtech.co.in/products/Technical-Analysis-For-Investors-6a02adbda1e7ca7de9a0eda2

<p>The post New Video!! first appeared on Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh.</p>

Join us for an exclusive workshop on Technical Analysis for Investors, where you will gain practical insights into chart reading, trend identification, and market behaviour.

Hotel Tunga International, Andheri (E), Mumbai
13 June 2026 | 9 AM – 6 PM
Price: ₹2,500/-

A focused session for investors looking to improve their market understanding and decision-making.

For more details:
+91 7977801488

Follow the link to purchase:
https://services.nooreshtech.co.in/products/Technical-Analysis-For-Investors-6a02adbda1e7ca7de9a0eda2

Tentative Seminar Schedule 

9:30 AM – 11:00 AM
Session 1

11:00 AM – 11:30 AM
Tea/Coffee Break

11:30 AM – 1:00 PM
Session 2

1:00 PM – 2:00 PM
Lunch Break

2:00 PM – 3:30 PM
Session 3

3:30 PM – 4:00 PM
Tea/Coffee Break

4:00 PM – 6:00 PM
Q&A + Networking Session
An interactive session focused on doubt solving, discussions, and networking with fellow participants.

<p>The post Technical Analysis For Investors first appeared on Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh.</p>

We have been looking only at USD/INR.

Most against EURO POUND and AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR.

<p>The post INR has depreciated against all Global Currencies not jut the US Dollar. first appeared on Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh.</p>

Has gone from 11.5 to almost 14 in last 1 year.

This depreciation is more than what INR has done against USD

First time post 2013.

Should have implications for Export, Commodities, Inflation, Less Dumping, etc.
Any Beneficiaries?

<p>The post Indian Rupee has depreciated 15-17% against the Chinese Yuan first appeared on Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh.</p>

Nifty Pharma: Flip Flop in a Trading Range.

5-6 attempts at both ends.

Will it Breakout or Breakdown?

Comment = Breakout, Breakdown, Stay in a Range.

<p>The post Nifty Pharma – A Breakout to Watch For. Nifty top 10 – Heavies Underperforming. first appeared on Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh.</p>

Also planning a Technical Analysis Training Session in June/July in Mumbai. If interested Whatsapp on 7977801488 will keep you informed when fixed. 

Most people in the market are constantly searching for the next Multibagger.
but very few actually understand how market cycles work, when to take risk, and where real leaders come from.

In the latest episode of MastersInOne, I had a deep conversation with
@nooreshtech
a SEBI-registered research analyst with 20+ years of experience and this one genuinely changed the way I look at markets.

This is about frameworks that actually work across cycles:

• Why beginners should focus on equal-weight allocation instead of going all-in on one idea
• How your hit ratio shifts from 40% to 80% depending on the market cycle
• The biggest mistake after spotting a breakout
• How to identify real market bottoms using RSI (20–25 zone) + breadth
• The power of RSI divergence when markets look worst
• Why most traders fail to capitalize big when they are right
• How to use ratio charts to identify early outperformance
• And most importantly why new leaders always come from laggards, not the obvious names

Two powerful takeaways from this conversation:
Markets don’t reward prediction, they reward positioning
Make enough in bull phases so bear phases don’t matter
If you’re serious about improving your market thinking and finding the next market leader / multibagger, this episode will add real value.

<p>The post New Podcast with Vijay Thakkar & Nooreshtech on Instagram, Whatsapp. first appeared on Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh.</p>

Read PDF Instead

Watch Youtube Video

Lets Start

The Big Numbers – Seems everyone is an Investor !!

• The Number of Demat Accounts have grown to 23 cr.
• NSE Unique Client Codes = 25 cr.
• Number of Unique NSE accounts = 13 cr.
• Daily Trading Volumes in Cash Markets at 1 lakh cr.
• MTF at 1.1 lakh cr.
• Total Market Cap = 470 lakh cr. ( 5 trillion $ )

Unique Investors from 3 cr to 13 cr from Covid.

From 25k cr to 1 lakh cr vols since Covid.

The Youth is Here. 38% of accounts < 30 age

Now Lets Talk Real Numbers which is Active Cash Market Investors !!

Active Accounts not growing much – Fy 22 = 2.74 cr. FY 26 = 3.58 cr.

Only 3.6 cr out of 23-25 cr Accounts are Active. 70% of Accounts traded < 10 days. 35% just trades 1-2 days.

Total Accounts 3.58. Monthly Unique Investors= 1.2-1.5 cr. 90% of Investors are Ghosting ?

Only 11.5 lakh Unique Investors > 10 lakh Vols out of which only 2.3 lakh Investors = 90% of Vols !!

Just 1-1.5 cr Unique but only 2.3 lakh Make the Impact.

Share of individual investors has reduced from its peak of 45% in FY21 to 33% now.

The Big Boys = Props = HFTs rule the roost with 40% !!

In a nutshell

90% are Ghosting.; 2% are Dancing.

Only Accounts no Activity  !!

• The Data tells you Direct Equity Participation is terribly Low.
• A lot of accounts are just kept active by 1 trade a day so it does not go Dormant. Very low Active Investors.
• For someone like me A Research Analyst whose Target audience is 10 lakh + turnover realizes its only 10-12 lakh people in a country of 140 cr.
• At the same time – Future looks amazing given that the Size of Opportunity and Participation is only going to increase !!

Thank You for Reading

Follow us on

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<p>The post India Equity Accounts. Naam Bade aur Darshan Chhotte!! first appeared on Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh.</p>

A post that is a quick read, less than 5 mins, but gives a lot of interesting insights.

1. Nifty – The Range is Set. 

Nifty50 = The Range is Set.
1) The Big Support = 21500-22000.
2) The Pivot = 24300-24500.
3) The Big Resistance = 26300-26500

2) The Smallcap Drawdown 

73% of stocks are down > 30% from 52wk highs

How does this compare to historical data

Mar 2009: 94%
Aug 2013: 64%
Aug 2019: 75%
May 2022: 57%
Mar 2023: 56%
Jan 2025: 61%
Jan 2026: 59%

3) Lower the Market Cap = Higher the Drawdown 

Greater than 40k cr = 22%

Less than 10k cr = 32-40%

4) The Microcap Universe has expanded. 

SEBI Categorization implies that anything below 34000 cr Market Cap is Smallcap. This number was 8500 cr when they started categorization. The Midcap Universe is now 34000 to 1 lakh cr Market Cap.

Let’s consider anything below 10k cr as a MICROCAP.

200-10000 cr Market Cap = Almost 2000 companies.

1000-1000 cr Market Cap = Almost 1000 companies.

This is a huge Universe.

5) Fund Rainfall on Companies. 

I have been writing about how the Midcaps/Smallcaps/Microcaps today are not leveraged but rather have Cash and Assets. One of the reasons is the Fund Rainfall on Companies.

2.2 lakh crores of Preferentials.

2.6 lakh crores of QIPs.

A total of 10 lakh cr + in 3 years.

This is as of Feb End.

10% Discount on All Smallcases for April 2026. 

The link to subscribe https://nooreshtech.smallcase.com/

Coupon Code = NOORESHTECH

The Three Smallcases to look for.

1. Top 20 Microcaps. 

Heads you Win Tails you don’t Lose Much –

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A 20-stock equal-weight portfolio where stocks are Deep Value either via – Assets, Replacement Value, Earnings, Cycle or Optionality,

Now with 18 stocks, other 2 stocks to be added soon.

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View / Subscribe – https://nooreshtech.smallcase.com/smallcase/NOMFMM_0001

2) Top 10 Techno Funda 

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3) Top 10 Promoter Buying 

https://nooreshtech.smallcase.com/smallcase/NOMNM_0003

Would suggest to do SIP as well in the Smallcases.

WhatsApp us at 7977801488 for any queries related to the product

<p>The post FataFat – Nifty, Smallcap Drawdown, 800-2000 Microcaps, Fund Rainfall. first appeared on Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh.</p>

In simple terms, a RSI Positive Divergence is New lows on Nifty but higher bottoms on Daily RSI.

This setup has worked brilliantly to spot Risk-Reward Entry Points near Bottoms in the last 10 years.

Examples below

1) 2016-2017

The Triple RSI Divergence on the 2016 Budget Day Bottom.

I did a presentation called – Beg Borrow Steal and Invest.

Old Video there on my YouTube Channel.

RSI Positive Divergence post demonetization bottom.

2) 2018-2019

Worked brilliantly in the Nifty bottoming out in 2018 and 2019.

Corporate Tax Rate Cuts gave that steroid shot in 2019.

Oversold RSI became deeply oversold in March 2020.

Price went much lower, but the bottom was made in 1-2 weeks.

3) 2022-2023

The RSI divergences worked well in 2022, after the Russia-Ukraine war started.

Solid recovery in Nifty after the Positive Divergence in March 2023.

4) 2025-2026

RSI Positive Divergence around the Trade Tariff by US in March-April 2025.

Gap downs and big Gap Ups.

Currently, the Nifty has made a Triple Positive Divergence.

Observation

In previous instances of RSI Positive Divergence and Triple Positive Divergence, the bottom is made in 2 days to 2-3 weeks.

2020 price went much lower.

Bottom in 2 week Confirmations – Nifty starts crossing prev day or week highs.

All are major bottoms.

Conclusion

Over the last 10 years RSI positive divergences have shown a bottom made in 2-3 weeks and 2-3% from the Divergence.

2013 bottom was also a Triple Divergence.

Even in 2008, it did in 2 weeks.

Made sharper lows like 2020.

It’s a rare RSI Triple Divergence.

For Nifty 21500-22000 is a support band.

Election lows/Trade Tariff lows. Technically, a Beg Borrow Steal and Invest.

Flip-Flop on War daily makes it tough to THRUMP the table and say Buy, but at least history suggests pain could be over in 2-3 weeks.

Please do your own risk management, Due Dilligence, and research.

Technical Analysis is all about Probabilities and Risk-Reward. Long Term Investors – Be Patient and can think of more Equity Allocation Traders

Manage Risk and look for confirmations by Price or War News.

<p>The post Nifty50 – Triple Positive RSI Divergence. first appeared on Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh.</p>

Other pointers – No of Stocks below 200 dema below 20% , RSI for Nifty etc all show oversold readings.

The Smallcap Indices are down 20% from the peak, but the median fall is 35-40%.

A Panic Capitulation Event or a Big Positive Event only confirms a Bottom has been made.

Example – Lockdown date 23rd Mach 20 was a bottom, 90-day pause on Tariffs in Apr 2025, June Elections, Budget 2016, Demon + Trump etc, Corporate Tax Rate Cut 2019.

Nobody knows how a Bottom would be made now – Peak of War and Capitulation or a Reversal in stance.

But can we be looking at

Peak of Trade Tariffs Done, Peak of Geopolitics and War to be over sooner than later.

Unless you are a World War monger or something more Pessimistic.

Smallcaps at 22k Nifty, Microcaps at 18-20k Nifty

• Smallcap Indices back to prices 2 years back.
• Back at Election Day Price.
• In Feb 24 the Nifty was around 21800.
• There is no Index for sub 10k cr Market Cap, but that’s at closer to 2023-2024 zone and say 18-20k Nifty.
• The Risk-Reward is in Favour for focusing on Microcaps with a 1-3 year view.

My stance is that Deep Value Microcaps are the most hated Universe in India, very similar to PSUs and Old economy/Manufacturing companies in 2021-2022. You rarely get a combination of Cheap on Earnings + Below Asset Values + Optionalities.

My suggestion is to go pick Microcap stocks ( 200-10000 cr Mkt Cap – lower the better ), doing your own research or by subscribing our Research Products. I may even say you can subscribe to any other Microcap/Smallcap Research Analysts. But this is a good time for 1-3 year view ( positive surprises can come faster, also who knows).

Even a Random Portfolio in this Universe can do well.

A quote from my 2016 post

“You buy a stock at a price at which you believe you can make money. Markets will decide the temporary loss and eventual profit. So, do your homework well and sit on your fat bum! :)”

Nooresh 2016.

Another fav “No Situation is Permanent. Ye Waqt Guzar Jayega”

Rallies from Bottoms in Smallcaps are Crazy 

Right now, all one can see and read is the negatives. When stock prices fall every day and a daily barrage of Bad News, Tweets its difficult to think about a Rally.

Let’s look at how sharp the bounces are when a bottom is made. BSE Smallcap Index taken as thats the best Universe. BSE has stopped updating the ticks but price available on EOD basis on website. As of today its at 45165, where it was back in Jan 2024.

1. Trade Tariff Bottom of April 2025

• Post the 90-day pause, there was a big gap up.
• Then China paused another gap up.
• Currently Smallcap Index is back to that price.
• It was a 36% rally from the lows. At peak it was just 3% from all time high.

2) Indian Elections June 

• Smallcap Index is now at the closing price of 04th June 2024.
• It rallied 30-33% from Election day lows to hit new highs.
• From the March 2024 lows it was up 44%.

3) Rally from Oct 2023. 

• Hamas attacked Israel on 7th Oct 2023.
• Fund Managers called Smallcaps Frothy. Lump sum caps, etc. The Smallcap Index is 10-20% higher than in September 2023.
• US 10 year at 5% . Crude at 90. FIIs sold a lot.
• A rally of 32% and new all time highs.

4) Rally from March 2023 bottoms. 

• Regional Banks in US. SVB etc.
• Adani Hidenburg in Jan 2023.
• Tax Loss selling and FIIs.
• A sudden bottom on last day of Financial year.
• a Rally of 48% by Sept 2023.
• A single day dip 3-4% on Smallcap Index with SEBI chief calling for Stress Tests on Smallcap Funds. Fund Managers calling Frothy Smallcaps.
• The Rally continued till 2024 with a peak at 57700. Up 120% from lows of March 2023.

5) Rallies during Russia Ukraine War 2022. 

• Bounce of 18% post start of war.
• A rally of 29% from June 22 lows.
• Almost back to all time highs.
• A higher bottom in March 2023.

6) 2019 Corporate Tax Cut Rally and 2020 mad recovery

• LTCG in 2018 started the downfall. Guess what Nifty was flat on that day.
• Followed by IL&FS credit crunch, DHFL, SEBI classification of stocks and more global.
• Pain continued in 2019.
• A bottom followed by Corporate Tax Rate Cut trigger.
• A rally of 24% from lows of Aug 2019. 15% from Corporate Tax Cut.
• Covid comes out of nowhere and 40% crack.
• It recovers 80% from the lows and back above pre covid highs by Sept 2020 !!. Could you even imagine.

7) Budget Bottom 2016 and Demon/Trump bottom in 2017. 

• Markets peaked in mid of 2015 and drifted till Feb 2016. Bottomed on Budget Day.
• Rally of 42%
• Demon/Trump gap down in 2016.
• Rally of 36% by May 2017.
• Continued further in 2017.

8) Taper Tantrum and USD INR mad bottom of 2013. 

• 2010-2013 was the toughest phase. Nifty was down only 15% in 2013, but Smallcaps broke 2011 lows and was down 50-55% from 2010 highs.
• 5-8 year return zero for most Indices.
• QE Taper Tantrum.
• USD INR went from 44-48 to 68 in 2 years. 30% in 6 months. 12 years depreciation and still not as bad.
• What happened in 5 months then has happned in 5 years.
• August bottom to Jan was 31% rally.
• By July 14 it was more than 100%.
• 4x by Jan 2018.

A rally of 20-30% in 3-6 months is so common in most bottoms of the last 10-15 years.

Many stocks would have much sharper recoveries. At times if its a multi-year bottom the next 1-3 years is a multi-fold move.

Hope now you understand why most Long Term Smallcap/Microcap Investors do not take Extreme Cash Calls. 

Imagine being on high cash in one of such Cycles. Tough to get back in.

But if one can deploy fresh capital in such times, imagine the head start. ( This is what happened to Covid Investors)

Conclusion 

• The Median Fall is 35-40%. Smallcap Index is down 20%. 2 years + flat.
• The Indian Micro situation is not as bad like it was in 2019/2013.
• The World has not gone as bonkers as in 2007, so 2008 type fall looks difficult. Not expecting Covid type pandemic again, given it’s a once-in-100-year event.
• A bottom can happen via a Capitulation and a Big Black Event or a Recovery out of nowhere with some Positive Event. Nobody knows beyond a Point.
• But do remember the Rallies in Microcaps/Smallcaps are very Sharp when it does.
• Today it does not look a possibility but if you are Long Term Bullish on Indian Microcaps/Smallcaps this might be the time to allocate more.
• All this does not matter if your view is World War 3 or a bigger Black Swan beyond Covid. Even then, will Markets never come back? History doesn’t say so.

My Personal View 

• In Bear Markets, investors start doubting the best of businesses and curse the Stocks because they have corrected. A lot of Investors who came in Late dump their holdings to not Return back as they are only looking at Stock Prices.
• A 15-25% Cagr in Smallcaps/Microcaps or even Large Caps is not a Linear Scale. There are times when one loses 20-40% from peak and back to where one was 2-3 years back. There are years where you go up 50-100% in a Year.
• Your behavior in those 2-3 years is going to decide the Outperformance. Increasing Equity Allocations in such periods is the big game changer.
• This is the time where solid businesses are available at prices where one can hold for years without any worry given the Valuations and Future Potential.
• In every Bear Cycle a section of Market becomes totally disregarded and cheap with a possibility to make Multi-Fold Returns.
• In todays market the similar spot is Deep Value Microcaps.
• Microcaps implying sub 10k cr market and majority of them in 200-5000 cr Market Cap.
• These are places of interest for us.
• Most of our recommended stocks are in these segments and have been badly hit. We have seen such phases in 2022-2023,2019,2016,2013. Adding to your equity allocation towards Smallcaps in such phase rewards well over the next 2 years.
• There are many companies with a long history of being listed but now forgotten. There are newly listed companies where Short term Punters have dumped. Many different such opportunities.
• Focus on Strong Balance Sheets, Businesses instead of Narratives. Very rarely one gets a combination of Deep Value ( reduces Capital Loss Risk) + Earnings + Optionality ( Increases chance of Multi-Fold Returns).
• Some Companies can go from Deep Value to High Growth also. Difficult to imagine today.
• At the same time a lot of High Growth companies with Crazy Multiples ( 10-15x Sales. 40-100 PE ) may go through a multi-year sideways correction. Most of these are in Larger Midcaps.
• As a matter of fact one may be better of buying the Deep Value Microcaps compared to Large Caps. The Large Midcap Basket between 101s to 500th Stocks is still Expensive thanks to Domestic Mutual Fund being forced to invest in SEBI classification, which says anything below 34000 cr market cap is Smallcaps.
• One may even consider how much one should shift from LargeCap,Large Midcaps to the Deep Value Microcaps.
• Hold and increase allocations to Microcaps and Smallcaps recommended

<p>The post Bounce or Rally after Smallcap Pessimism is Crazy and Sharp !! first appeared on Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh.</p>

Above 10kcr Mkt Cap

 

5kcr to 10kcr Mkt Cap

2kcr to 5kcr Mkt Cap

1kcr to 2kcr Mkt Cap

500cr to 1kcr Mkt Cap

100cr to 500cr Mkt Cap

Below 100cr Mkt Cap

 

<p>The post Following the Promoters: Open Market Buying from 1st Jan 2026 to 6th March 2026 first appeared on Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh.</p>

Lets start with the structure of Nifty Indices

• The Mother Index – Nifty 500 – Represents 79.55% of the traded value of all stocks on NSE
  • Top 5 Sectors – 61.32%
  • Top 10 Weights – 32.86%
  • 
  Breaking down the broader index into its subsets to see the concentration in each of them
  Nifty 50 – Represents 26.84% of the traded value of all stocks on the NSE.
  • Top 5 Sectors – 70.54%
  • Top 10 Weights – 55.29%
  • 
  Nifty Next 50 – Represents 11.18% of the traded value of all stocks on NSE.
  • Top 5 Sectors – 57.39%
  • Top 10 Weights – 33.67%
  • 
  Going down the order to the Midcap and Smallcap Indices
  Nifty Midcap 150 – Represents 22.81% of the traded value of all stocks on NSE
  • Top 5 Sectors – 64.32%
  • Top 10 Weights – 17.88%
  • 
  Nifty Smallcap 250 – Represents 11.24% of the traded value of all stocks on NSE
  • Top 5 Sectors – 63.29%
  • Top 10 Weights – 14.97%
  • 
  Lastly, the 250 stocks beyond Nifty 500
  Nifty Micropcap 250 –
  • Top 5 Sectors – 54.44%
  • Top 10 Weights – 12.78%
  • 
  Observations
  • Sector Concentration Falls as You Go Down the Curve
  • Financials are the single biggest driver of Indian equities across the spectrum
  • Financials command a massive 37.06% of the Nifty 50 but drop to 24.96% in the Smallcap 250 & further 11.22% in Microcap 250
  • Nifty Microcap 250 is the only index where Capital Goods (19.45%) overtakes Financials (11.22%) as the primary driver
  • Top 10 concentration: Nifty 50 has 55.29% concentration in just 10 stocks vs Nifty Microcap 250 is exceptionally granular; its top 10 holdings represent only 12.78% of the index.
  • Healthcare: Nifty 50 has 3.99% weight vs Smallcap 250 has 14.03% weights
  • FMCG declines down the curve – Nifty 50 – 6.01%; Next 50 – 9.73% & Microcap 250 has 5.07%
  • Commodities Fade Down the Curve – Oil & Gas from 9.93% (N50) → 0.62% (M250) & Metals 4.03% (N50) → 1.12% (M250)
  • IT Loses Dominance Down the Curve – 10.83% (N50) to 2.81% (M250)
  • Consumer Services rises from 2.43% (N50) to 7.13% (M250), and Consumer Durables from 2.37% to 6.76%
  • Chemicals steadily increases from 3.41% (Nxt 50) to 8.71% (M250)
  • 

<p>The post NSE Indices – Concentration Analysis: Fascinating shift as you move from large-cap indices to microcap index first appeared on Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh.</p>

As part of its periodic review, NSE Indices Limited has approved the replacement of several stocks across its major indices.

• Effective Date: March 30, 2026
• Cut-off Date: After market close on March 27, 2026

The Broader NSE Index Structure

To understand the reshuffle, it helps to look at how the NSE classifies its broader market indices. The Nifty 500 acts as the master index, containing three main market-cap buckets:

• Nifty 100 (Largecap): Consists of the Nifty 50 + Nifty Next 50
• Nifty Midcap 150: Broken down into subsets (Midcap 100 & Midcap 50)
• Nifty Smallcap 250: Broken down into subsets (Smallcap 100 & Smallcap 50)

Blended Indices:

• LargeMidcap 250: Nifty 100 + Midcap 150
• MidSmallcap 400: Midcap 150 + Smallcap 250

Beyond the Nifty 500:

• Microcap 250: The next 250 stocks ranking just below the Nifty 500.

Detailed Index Changes

Nifty 50 & Nifty 100 (Largecap)

Nifty 50: No changes.

Nifty 100: 6 constituents changed (6% churn). All excluded stocks were demoted to Midcap indices.

Nifty Next 50: 6 constituents excluded (mirroring the Nifty 100 exclusions).

Nifty Midcap 150

• 16 constituents changed (10.7% churn).

Nifty Smallcap 250

• 33 constituents changed (13.2% churn).

Nifty Smallcap 100 (As it’s a benchmark for most of the small-cap mutual funds)

• 24 constituents changed (24% churn)

When 24% of an index is swapped out in a single review, you have to wonder if it’s actually a reliable yardstick for market performance?

The Nifty 500 (Master Index)

Because the Nifty 500 encompasses the Large, Mid, and Smallcap indices, any stock entering or exiting the 500 is directly placed into or removed from one of those underlying buckets.

• 31 constituents changed (6.2% churn).

Beyond the Nifty 500 (Microcap 250)

The Nifty Microcap 250 experienced a massive reshuffle, marking the highest turnover among the listed indices.

• 63 constituents changed (25.2% turnover).

Conclusion

• Legacy consumption and housing-linked names like V-Guard, Century Ply, Cera, Vedant Fashions and energy play Gujarat Gas have seen exclusions across broader indices, while new-age platform businesses such as Lenskart, Meesho, Urban Company, Pine Labs and capital market platform Groww have been widely included.
• In financials, the tilt is toward fee-based and diversified models, with ICICI Prudential AMC, HDB Financial, Piramal Finance and Tata Capital gaining presence, while traditional insurers like ICICI Prudential Life lose representation in key financial indices.
• On the energy front, NTPC Green Energy has entered thematic indices replacing Gujarat Gas, signaling a shift from gas to renewables.
• Manufacturing is also evolving, with specialty and transition-linked companies like Anthem Biosciences, Anupam Rasayan, GE Vernova T&D, Hindustan Copper gaining inclusion, while older industrial names such as Praj Industries, Sundram Fasteners and Cummins India move down the market-cap ladder.
• In healthcare, companies like Acutaas, Anthem Biosciences and Blue Jet Healthcare are being added, while Alembic Pharma and Metropolis are excluded, indicating a move toward specialty and CDMO-focused players.

<p>The post NSE Index Rebalancing: March 2026 Update first appeared on Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh.</p>

The Bear Markets are more like a Kangaroo Market.

Guess what, I used the same image 2 years back in Feb 2023. 

Let’s compare the BSE Smallcap Index back in 23 and now the Nifty Smallcap 100.

BSE Smallcap Index ticks stopped by BSE. Now updates only EOD and does not come on Charting Websites. Till we find a workaround we use Nifty Small100.

The BSE Smallcap Index saw a final dip in March 2023 and then started a massive rally.

The Current quarterly results season has been better than expectations in the Smallcap Segment. March could be a good hunting time for Investors.

April could be the time to look for new trends to emerge.

Nifty50 – Very clear ranges to react. 

1. All-time highs and Tradel Deal announcement highs around 26300-26500.
2. Gap at 25100-25400.
3. 24300-24500 are the multiple bottoms of the last 1 year.
4. Time to wait patiently, but be alert to react once a new trend emerges.

Do remember the Leaders may change going forward.

Be Open-Minded.

<p>The post The Kangaroo Market is Jumping up and Down. first appeared on Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh.</p>

I spoke about this back in 2023 as to how Smallcaps are not Diverging, but Heavies are Sleeping.

• A lot of smart people reduced Smallcaps early, looking at the Divergence.
• A lot of Fund Managers called for cutting Smallcap Weight in Sept 2023.
• Ratio Charts showing exuberance.
• Smallcap Index up 40-50% from that point at peak.
• Even now its 20-25% higher from Sept 2023.

Back to the same Sleeping Heavy Weights problem.

1. Banks and Financials 36.5% in Nifty50. Underperforming since 2019-2020.
2. Reliance Inds 9% weight. Ex of Jio, the return is almost zero for 5 years.
3. IT Sector 10% weight. Lower than the peak of 2021. 5 years gone.
4. FMCG – 6% Hindustan Unilever at the same price as in 2019-2020. ITC down 35% from its peak and at the same price as 8-10 years. ( ex div)

That’s like 60-65% of the Nifty50 has been sleeping for the last 5-6 years.

• Financials have shown the lead, and others are still sleeping.
• The problem is looking at outperformance here, a lot of people may change style from Midcap/Smallcap to Large Caps or shift more to Large Caps.
• In the near term, the shift may look great, but in the coming years?
• The same thing done in 2019 ( Nifty up 15%, Smallcap down 25-30% ) hurt everyone in 2020-2024.
• But if you are not doing research and punting random themes, Tips etc you might as well go through MFs.
• A lot of hero stocks of 2018 are still sleeping & heroes of 2024 may too.

Conclusion :

• Stick to your Style.
• You have endured 15 months.
• Be Patient and Build Conviction and Research in Sideways Market to Prosper in the Next Bull Market.

<p>The post The Sleeping HeavyWeight Problem in Nifty50 first appeared on Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh.</p>

• Free-Float Market Cap,
• Top 50-100-500
• Rebalances
• Survivorship

Top 2 weights of Nifty Small 100

• MCX = 5.14%
• Laurus = 3.89%.

Both> 50k cr mkt cap.

Top 3 weights are now Midcap as per SEBI categorization.

<p>The post Indices cannot show the condition of the Broader Market e.g. Nifty Smallcap 100 first appeared on Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh.</p>

• Not considering TRI (div incl).
• The Outperformance of Nifty50 in 2018-2019 and Smallcap in 2023-2024 has been normalized.
• Dollar Return would be = 6-9%

<p>The post Returns since 1st Feb 2018 – The Day LTCG Tax was introduced. first appeared on Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh.</p>

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<p>The post New Smallcase Launch – Top 20 Microcaps first appeared on Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh.</p>

59% of the stocks are down more than 30% from their 52wk highs

Historical Data – % of stocks down >30% from 52-week high –

Mar 2009: 94%
Aug 2013: 64%
Aug 2019: 75%
May 2022: 57%
Mar 2023: 56%
Jan 2025: 61%
Jan 2026: 59%

Jan 2026 – Comparable to May 2022 and Mar 2023, Less severe than 2019 and Far from 2009 and 2013

The corrections are more deeper in small mktcap companies (<10k cr)

These are good times for long term smallcap investors who have holding periods of 1-4 years

Keep hunting !!

<p>The post Market Breadth Data – Jan 2026 first appeared on Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh.</p>