TechnicalTrendz

NIFTY WILL START PROFIT BOOKING NEXT WEEK

noreply@blogger.com (Equde) — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 12:56:50 PST

January contract expired with our positional traders with awesome gains and day traders in small loss.Major sentiment chargers like our RBI credit policy ,US FOMC meeting all over,nothing surprising happened,result calender also almost over,so HOW WILL MARKET MOVE ????
In year we don't have BUDGET in February too,we told in previous post about channel movement of NIFTY in WEEKLY chart ,so upper target of that is 5250 (When January contract started we were near to low of 4450 ),so we going to short this market with STOP of 5250 in closing basis.Because STOP is bit far we are entering in to OPTIONS.

Major asian market are closed for lunar New Year ,So full strength of participation can be seen on next week in NIFTY. US VIX(Volatility index) is trading near to 18 levels so a reversal is near.

Disclosure (Positions)

BUY 5100 PUT @ 90

ARE YOU SURE RELIANCE WILL BUY BACK SHARES ?

noreply@blogger.com (Equde) — Sun, 22 Jan 2012 07:22:56 PST

After news about companies buy back came ,i was just checking companies share holding pattern,in " Shareholding belonging to the category "Public" and holding more than 1% of the Total No. of Shares"there is two companies starting with "reliance" name Reliance Chemicals Limited,Reliance Polyolefins Limited , both these companies are mentioned in "Major Subsidiaries & Associates" in reliance site.Because its not mentioned in Promoters holding,if reliance buy back shares from these companies, that also became a buy back.The company has to buy 25 per cent of the total offer or 3 crore shares in the offer, under existing rules on buyback of shares. If this is going to happens then its a transfer of fund from parent to a subsidiary will happens .

Why a company Buy Back Shares ?

If a company is continuously giving good results still trading in a lower P.E than its peers , and company have cash in its balance sheet ,then a buy back is a good option.Here in reliance case company is a underperformed over the past one year,and this time result also disappoint.

So entering to reliance saying company value per share @ 870 is foolishness.

*disclosure about our trading is given in previous posts

POSITION TRADERS EXIT IF NIFTY BREAK 5000

noreply@blogger.com (Equde) — Sat, 21 Jan 2012 06:23:00 PST

Position traders ,who are LONG on NIFTY from January Contract after our advising video can exit position if market break 5000 ,after all there is only three trading day left in this month.Our Intraday traders made losses in S&P PUT option which expired yesterday,to limit losses we closed short positions in nifty and increased 4900 PUT to four.Reliance fooled investors and traders.With a small buy back news which got leaked (hope it was leaked !!)stock came back to 800 levels,just think reliance result came with out buy back ,stock will be trading 600 next monday .Company first time in its history given a GRM which is below Singapore GRM of 7.3-7.4.I like to say its a pure usage of its weightage in both indices.

Disclosure (Positions)

BUY 4900 (4)put @19

BUY RELIANCE 720 PUT @ 3

ALL EYE ON RELIANCE INDUSTRIES

noreply@blogger.com (Equde) — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 11:22:08 PST

Reliance Industries (RIL), heavyweight of indian stock market is going to announce its third quarter results.Stock already moved 108 points back from January 2nd low,with speculative news like ,company going to take 26% in Cable networks .Company didn't confirm it yet.
News about buy back is confirmed,According to CNBC-TV18's site company's PAT is seen down 21% at 4510 crore versus Rs 5703 crore, QoQ.So may be to calm investors,company ready for a buy back, but market will forget result if buyback is above 20000 cr .
So just to gain from volatility of reliance ,added a PUT to position.

Disclosure (Positions)

BUY on S&P 500 1290 PUT @ 16.5.

SELL on NIFTY FUTURE @ 4871

BUY 4900 (2)put @27.5

BUY RELIANCE 720 PUT @ 3

WATCHING S&P 500 CLOSELY

noreply@blogger.com (Equde) — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 12:18:25 PST

A bad day in market when your bearish,still hold position in sell side and taken losses for the day,added 4900 PUT to current position @ 34.6 .

Why i didn't exited position today(17.1.2012) ?

a,Yesterdays movement of NIFTY was with out much volume.
b,This pull back started from midcap to Large cap.(good pull backs start from large caps and extend to midcap and smallcap.)
c,S&P 500 rallied 7 days in 9 trading days(till yesterday)due for correction which will trigger global correction .

Disclosure (Positions)

BUY on S&P 500 1290 PUT @ 16.5.

SELL on NIFTY FUTURE @ 4871

BUY 4900 put @34.6

NIFTY OVERBOUGHT @ CURRENT LEVELS.

noreply@blogger.com (Equde) — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 06:23:18 PST

NIFTY traded in -ve to flat Territory most of the time ,even after inflation figures it moved slowly ,but steady towards +ve near to close.We done an intraday trade in NIFTY only.We will BUY a CALL OPTIONS if NIFTY if it break 4920 and sustain.

Today US Markets are closed for Martin Luther King Day,volume even in Indian Market was low compare to other day's.So we kept our positions open.

Positions

Bought S&P 500 1290 PUT @ 16.5.

Sold NIFTY FUTURE @ 4871 SL 4950 tgt 4745-4760.

S&P WILL BLOW WHISTLE AFTER US MARKET CLOSED.

noreply@blogger.com (Equde) — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 10:43:15 PST

Apologies for no updates here for two days,yes those who SUBSCRIBED

before got updates through other handles.(RIGHT CORNER BUTTON)
I take NIFTY as a leading indicator for reversal in world market,we change side of NIFTY and S&P today (we closed S&P CALL yesterday and bought PUT).we done intraday trade in NIFTY 4800 PUT and closed position because we had a SHORT in FUTURES already.

Positions

BUY S&P 500 1290 PUT @ 16.5

SELL NIFTY FUTURE @ 4871

Regarding S&P downgrades,which countries are included will be know only after US market closed.In mean time news about US FED QE3 talks are also going on.Hope we can capitalize on these bearish news because US MARKET is closed on Monday.

Note:SGX NIFTY already trade in 4800 levels today .

US INVESTORS KEPT EUROPE WORRIES ASIDE FOR EARNINGS

noreply@blogger.com (Equde) — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 14:32:35 PST

At last they kept euorpe worries aside,after a better inline earnings started coming from US companies,we are closely looking INFOSYS earnings too.So Keep 4800 PUT and ride upside with 1290 call of S&P ,looking a tgt near to 19.So it will be almost like getting 50 points in NIFTY FUTURES.

So Positions are

BOUGHT 4800 PUT @ 78 levels

HOLDING 1290 CALL of S&P 500 @ 10.5 tgt19

* Will go for NIFTY FUTURES (BUY )near 4760-4780 only

BOOKED PROFIT IN NIFTY ONCE

noreply@blogger.com (Equde) — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 14:24:15 PST

Closed long position @ 4845 levels as well as 4700 PUT @ 49 levels.(NIFTY Profit=4845-4714)NIFTY PUT loss (76.5-49),making a 5200 approx PROFIT

CURRENT POSITION

BOUGHT 4800 PUT @ 78 levels

HOLDING 1290 CALL of S&P 500 @ 10.5 tgt19

* KEPT a BUY FOR FUTURES @ 4780 levels.

Still going with SYNTHETIC LONG CALL Strategy in NIFTY.

LONG ON NIFTY& S&P 500 (6.01.2012)

noreply@blogger.com (Equde) — Thu, 05 Jan 2012 21:28:11 PST

BOUGHT NIFTY FUTURES @ 4714
SOLD NIFTY 4700 PUT 107 ,will buy back it lower levels.

BOUGHT 1290 CALL of S&P 500 @ 10.5 tgt 19 (today),especially for closing it tomorrow (expect a +ve break out in NIFTY.

* Special trading of NIFTY Tomorrow from 11.a.m to 1:05 p.m

POSITIONAL TRADERS HOLD ,OTHER CAN MOVE ON

noreply@blogger.com (Equde) — Thu, 05 Jan 2012 12:54:19 PST

We think today's rally was over done,market may open higher then go flat ,we closed all position futures @ 4760 and sold PUT @ 58.Took a profit of 6750 (excluding brokerage).Positional traders can wait with this position.We intraday traders moved on.
Closing movements of trade we took 4700 PUT @ 83 ,looking to BUY FUTURE @ 4700 levels(+/-20) ,for WRITE a OTM PUT (even 6600 PUT to get more premium )

Disclosure (Positions)

HOLDING (1) 4700 PUT JAN CONTRACT @ 83 tgt 125(book only if any of below trade didn't occur )

WILL KEEP BUY FUTURE @ levels near to 4700
OR
~~SELL 6600 PUT @ 1900(which ever come first )~~

Market didn't move as anticipated,staying with same level for tomorrow too. \

* market flat to positive till now,looking to enter in 5600 PUT @ 860-890 instead of 6600
or Future @ 4710-4730 levels.

1/5/2012 8.p.m IST :(a)US market closing crucial
(b)FII started buying Indian Stocks is a positive news.
(c) buy on dip market till it stay above 4680 levels.

Will update in Market Hours

NIFTY UPDATE JANUARY 2

noreply@blogger.com (Equde) — Sun, 01 Jan 2012 23:06:55 PST

Today US market is closed for trading (will be opening only after 5.pm CT),Europe will give clues for our trading.(EUROPEAN FUTURE will open @ 12:30 IST ).

Disclosure (Positions)

HOLDING (1) 4600 PUT JAN CONTRACT @ 75 tgt 125 then 165

BOUGHT NIFTY FUTURE @ 4607.7

Strategy was explained in video below.

2012 WILL START WITH SELL OFF IN S&P ?

noreply@blogger.com (Equde) — Fri, 23 Dec 2011 12:18:59 PST

With limited participation and encouraging Data point US Equity market is cruising to close this year into a flat to positive note.I like to look Volatility index (VIX) of S&P in these type of circumstances.
Now its trading at 20 levels,if market stay flat to positive next 4 trading days of this year.it will be coming neat to 52 week low of 14.27,then a sure short SELL OFF is possible in 2012.

.So Watch VIX carefully

Disclosure (Positions)

HOLDING (1) 4600 PUT JAN CONTRACT @ 75 tgt 125 then 165

HOLDING (1) 740 AXISBANK PUT @ 2.85 first tgt 6.5 then 14 then 21 (Expiry )

HOLDING (1) 5000 CALL @15 after
Booking one @ 35 which was brought at 17 on Dec 15th.

This two position will hit targets or expires. (Max loss = 1500)

Total Profit till date Rs.10700

NIFTY POSITIONS CLOSED

noreply@blogger.com (Equde) — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 11:04:59 PST

Yesterday's position closed in first target itself,we are lucky market reversed only after.No New position in NIFTY today.An OTM Put is bought in AXISBANK with a bit of profit .

Disclosure (Positions)

HOLDING (1) 740 AXISBANK PUT @ 2.85 first tgt 6.5 then 14 then 21 (Expiry )

HOLDING (1) 5000 CALL @15 after
Booking one @ 35 which was brought at 17 on Dec 15th.

This two position will hit targets or expires. (Max loss = 1500)

Total Profit till date above Rs.10000

SECURED QUANTITATIVE EASING BY ECB

noreply@blogger.com (Equde) — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 10:54:16 PST

When USA done QE -1 ,they took risk and funded their bank with out any interest on loan ,even though they call it as biggest successful investment after Alaska.ECB doing this with interest rate which will be the average of ECB's main interest rate over the next three years,currently its record low of 1%.Our market got hardly an hour to digest this news,so it took NIFTY towards 4700 .

Our all targets of yesterdays CALL got hit,with unexpected profit of last leg ,i opted to go for a 4600 PUT @ 32.

So

Disclosure (Positions)

HOLDING (1) 4600 PUT @ 32 first tgt 54 then 78 then 96

HOLDING (1) 5000 CALL @15 after
Booking one @ 35 which was brought at 17 on Dec 15th.

SHORT COVERING WILL HAPPEN THIS WEEK

noreply@blogger.com (Equde) — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 07:14:10 PST

Market made new 52 week low,yes till a fact ,but we can't ignore strong short covering in this week itself,technical indicators are at their lows and stocks in good levels for pick up.

Our LONG STRADDLE worked superbly ,i came out three time with 2k profit with this strategy ,and today's late sell i came out of STRADDLE .Bought a 4600 Call of this month.

Disclosure (Positions)

HOLDING (1) 4600 CALL @ 62 first tgt 92 then 110 then 147

HOLDING (1) 5000 CALL @15 after
Booked one @ 35 which was brought at 17 on Dec 15th.

CREATE LONG STRADDLE ON NIFTY

noreply@blogger.com (Equde) — Sun, 18 Dec 2011 11:57:06 PST

Again Sell Off,can't blame FII ,they sold only 200 cr,its impatient retailers made this sell off.
So now NIFTY will fall below sub 4k levels or not is big question.we have nine trading days before expiry,NIFTY VIX is currently at 29,am assuming it will not stay at current prices till expiry,with Rupee near to 53/$,and Europe Zone problem still exist.

So PLAY WITH MARKET WITH A LONG STRADDLE
LONG STRADDLE /STRADDLE is is a neutral strategy in options trading that involve the simultaneously buying of a put and a call of the same underlying index, striking price and expiration date.Long straddle options are unlimited profit, limited risk options trading strategies that are used when the options trader thinks that the underlying securities will experience significant volatility in the near term.

Here am going to BUY 4600 CALL & PUT
Now decision is made ,but what levels is the key,At current prices in NIFTY site both will be coming @ Rs.10000 ,plus you have decide your profit targets also ,if tgt hit close both

End of the contract ,What price you entered in Straddle decides your profit .Am keeping buy expected entry levels also below,So if i BUY 4600 call @ 56 i will be entering 4600 PUT near or below @110,total will be coming to Rs.8000

*Those who think it too much money for 9 trading day,can go for MININIFTY OPTIONS at same levels.

Disclosure (Positions)

HOLDING (1) 5000 CALL Avg bought @ 25 (Till Expiry or 78 Tgt Hit).
Booked one @ 35 which was brought at 17 on Dec 15th.

Expected STRADDLE BUY

December 4600 CALL @ 56-88
December 4600 PUT @75-110

NIFTY POSITIONS UPDATE

noreply@blogger.com (Equde) — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 09:47:50 PST

Nice pulls back in NIFTY and S&P 500 reconfirm our stands about nifty,we add one more position on 5000 CALL @17 and as per yesterdays suggestion we bought S&P 500 1200 CALL @ 15 and exited @ 20.

Current Position stands like

Disclosure (Positions)

HOLDING (2) 5000 CALL Avg bought @ 25 (Till Expiry or 78 Tgt Hit).

DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 2008 SELL OFF AND 2011 PULL BACK ?

noreply@blogger.com (Equde) — Wed, 14 Dec 2011 13:55:53 PST

In 2008 ,when most people try to understand mean of "Recession",it was almost end.Main difference was Rupee,in 2008 bear market it appreciated to 38 levels and now in 2011 it depreciated to 53/$,situation in 2008 hit more employed personals than a common man because they can't ask increase in salary & incentives especially if he is working in a foreign Company.Now Inflationary pressures are more,upper middle class is safe in 2011,than 2008.

December 13th optimism helped market to move to 4840 levels before it was hit again by bad global clues and bit more than expected inflation.Positive point was FII didn't sell that much (Maybe they see RBI action closer to 53/$ in Rupee,and market stayed above 4750 in closing basis.

Disclosure (Positions)

HOLDING 5000 CALL (Till Expiry or 78 Tgt Hit).

WILL BUY S&P 500 1200 CALL between 12-17 (DEC Contract).

SIGNS OF PULLS BACK TOWARDS 4950

noreply@blogger.com (Equde) — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 23:18:45 PST

Yesterday late hours pull back given a slight hope for market,and this month expiry is bit stretched too.(Dec 29).But correction in US market late night will keep traders cautious in start.FII activity quiet same SELLING in cash segment .

S&P DEC Expiry is only three trading day away,expect S&P will expiry between 1220-1250 band ,So Lower side of band is BUY and Upper Side of Band SELL.Taking Options will be more suitable,All this trade idea for 3 Trading day.

Disclosure (Positions)

BOOKED S&P 500 1250 PUT ,no Position now.

One Long on NIFTY 5000 CALL @ 33.5 ,will accumulate at lower levels till 4750 NIFTY holds.

HOLD LONG TILL 5020 Levels

noreply@blogger.com (Equde) — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 13:59:57 PST

After a holiday ,market may open down with global clues of today like S&P warning for European union countries and EFSF .Long position can be hold because US market came back strongly after late sell of yesterday.S&P 500 near a curial resistance of 1262- 1268 resistance band if it breaks all market can see it implication.
Level to watch will be 5020 in closing basis for BULLS to hold on their longs.No Major data point is expected from US,but Europe will give away their daily doses.A cruial trade time will be Futures of DAX open for trading near to our 12:30 p.m IST.

(NIFTY)HOLD Long till 5020 break in closing basis.
New Positions near 5050
(S&P 500 Dec Contract) Long from Dec 25 target of 1278 before expiry on Dec 16.

GOOD LEVEL TO SHORT,BUT BUY ON DIP

noreply@blogger.com (Equde) — Sun, 04 Dec 2011 16:11:05 PST

NIFTY @ 5050 ,if it came one month back, off course a shorting level.Like last week, all world market will be on optimism on Europe,but this week a final bell will ring. Because of that Traders will take this opportunity and will take market to a high,which common man will think a short able level.

So those who are conservative better to stay on side lines,average risk takers can BUY on dips ,Advance traders can start buying PUT OPTIONS.

UPA Government once again showed to people they don't guts to stay with their words and not ready for a election either.Implications of that can be seen in RETAIL stock today.Report to watch from US Markets is ISM manufacturing PMI.

NIFTY CAN DROP TO 4500 THIS YEAR ?

noreply@blogger.com (Equde) — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 15:11:24 PDT

As per this video ,If we didn't cross October 28th high in closing basis,we have a danger of falling back to mid- 4K is possible,Suppose we crossed 5399 ,then also a NIFTY closing below 5200 has to be watched more closely.

Another time need mention in this video is more draging in right side of pattern,more deeper the fall.Support of this fall can be calculated by a inclined line touching low(4720) after gap down.

WHAT'S COOKING IN RELIANCE COMMUNICATIONS ?

noreply@blogger.com (Equde) — Wed, 02 Mar 2011 08:31:02 PST

If you look at volume in Reliance communications for last 15 days its almost double than average,in a downtrend making new 52 weeks low everyday with volume.Market speculating about Ambani increasing stake in company to sell 26% stake to foreign partner,which he has taken approval .Other speculation is Big brother Mukesh Ambani going to take RCOM from Anil.Let speculators do there job ,in charts stock is heavy oversold in daily as well as weekly. Lets take yesterday reversal move (closing above 5% after making new low)as good sign and buy this stock for a target of 110.

RSI & Stochastic take a turn from lows and going to BUYING zone,taking this as a bit bullish signal.
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUYYYYYYYYYYYYY

Click on chart to see it enlarge.

SUPPORTS BREACHED STILL PLAY FOR REVERSAL

noreply@blogger.com (Equde) — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 12:53:47 PST

Last post we advised to buy nifty above 5470 levels,we still maintain it,yes nifty breached other crucial support 5400 support to two three trading days.But what we see is sell in individual stocks in NIFTY than selling NIFTY FUTURES. If you look leading indicators of SENSEX & NIFTY trading in record lows.Here i add SENSEX WEEKLY Chart for a clear View.500-600 point rally in SENSEX in this or next week is quiet possible.

Sensex gives early BUY & SELL signals ,look this weekly chart from 2008 low.(See black markings)