Technology, Media, and Telecom (TMT) Analyst

Memo to Karl Icahn: Talk to Expedia Management

2010-03-07T09:33:00.003-05:00

This is the tale of two online travel companies – company A and company B. Company A raked in $21.8 billion of gross travel bookings in 2009 and is by far the largest online travel company. It generated $3 billion in fees, or revenues, from those bookings. Those fees are expected to grow 17% in 2010, according to consensus. EBITDA is expected to reach nearly $950 million in 2010, up 12% YoY.

AOL: 1Q10 Domestic Display Advertising Down YoY

2010-03-02T12:30:00.001-05:00

In the 10K filing, AOL stated that its 1Q2010 domestic display advertising will be down year-over-year compared to the 1% growth in 4Q09 and the flat guidance for 1Q2010 provided recently on the 4Q09 earnings conference call. AOL cites its advertising sales organization restructuring which resulted in the reassignment of a majority of advertising accounts, significantly lower monetization of AOL

Disney Threatens to Pull ABC from Cablevision

2010-03-01T22:07:00.000-05:00

Disney is stating in commercials that it wants Cablevision to pay monthly fees to bean WABC to New York Cablevision households. Cablevision is stating that Disney wants $40 million in fees. TMTAnalyst

Google Akamai Runor Resurfaces

2010-02-26T12:34:00.002-05:00

Shares of Akamai (AKAM) are moving higher on renewed speculation that Google may purchase the company. Those rumors surfaced last October, however several analysts stated that the rumors were not credible. See this article from Gigaom which sheds light on the rumor. TMTAnalyst

Cisco Systems developing ultra-high-speed internet access system

2010-02-24T21:08:00.003-05:00

People close to the company say it is working with a number of US service providers, who are not named. But the article mentions Cisco customers AT&T (T) and Comcast (CMCSA), and says Cisco is "explicitly allying with the telecom giants" and hoping to benefit from their discomfort with Google (GOOG). Recall Google announced its plans for an experimental 1 gigabit per second fiber network on 10-

Gartner: 4Q09 Mobile Phones Sales up 8% & Smart Phone Sales up 41%

2010-02-24T21:06:00.001-05:00

Nokia (NOK1V.FH) 2009 global market share was 36.4% vs year ago 38.6% Sony ericsson 2009 global market share was 4.5% vs year ago 7.6% Motorola (MOT) 2009 global market share was 4.8% year ago vs 8.7% LG (066570.KS) 2009 LG global market share was 10.1% vs year ago 8.4% Samsung (005930.KS) 2009 global market share was 19.5% vs year ago 16.3% Source: Dow Jones, TMTAnalyst

Google denies report it cancelled China phone event

2010-02-24T21:03:00.001-05:00

Citing company spokeswoman Hohne, the company denies a Reuters report that it cancelled an event in Beijing. Reuters reported that the company had dropped the China leg of a regional event to show software developers its Nexus One. Citing a source close to the company, the report said Google will introduce the phone to software developers in Hong Kong and Taiwan next week, but will not stage a

Apple Estimates Raised Above Consensus at Bernstein

2010-02-24T09:47:00.001-05:00

The firm sees continued upward pressure on margins from the company's mix shift to iPhone and notes the Street is modeling a $100+ drop in average prices for the iPhone over the next two years with a 700bp deterioration margins which they see as aggressive. F10 EPS is raised to $11.99 from $11.67 vs. Reuters $11.76 with f11 raised to $13.73 from $12.72 vs. Reuters $13.43. Target remains $250 with

A Closer Look at the Windowing Debate Reignited by Disney

2010-02-15T14:49:00.009-05:00

In the traditional release window model movies are first released in the movie theatres and about four months later on DVD, and about 45 days later on VOD, and then about 18 months later on pay TV. In about two to three years after the movie’s release they are shown on free and ad-supported TV. And might I dare to add a last option of ad supported Internet sites like Hulu a few years after

Sprint 4Q09 Preview

2010-02-08T19:12:00.001-05:00

Sprint is scheduled to report 4Q09 results on Wednesday Feb. 10th prior to the market open. Conference call is at 8:0am. Consensus is calling for revenues of $8 billion, Adj. EBITDA of $1.41bn, 17.6% margin, and GAAP EPS of ($0.19). For the shares to rally, revenues should top $8.30billion, Adj. EBITDA should exceed $1.5 billion, and GAAP EPS should come in above ($0.12). On the wireless side

Advertising Trends Looks Favorable in 2010, according to Magna

2010-01-20T07:34:00.000-05:00

Magna released its U.S. advertising forecasts for 2010 through 2015. In it the research firm forecasts U.S. advertising, ex-political, to remain flat in 2010 and then grow by nearly 2% in 2011. This follows a 14.6% advertising decline in 2009. See my previous write-up on stocks to buy in a cyclical advertising recovery. Not surprisingly, paid search is projected to grow the fastest in 2010,

Apple - Our Top Tech Pick for 2010

2010-01-03T13:59:00.002-05:00

Apple (APPL) is likely to have a strong 2010 driven by the forthcoming iTablet, expansion of the iPhone platform through Verizon, firmer iPhone sales in Europe and China, strong Mac unit sales, and better than expected iPod sales, which although declining, should be boosted by the Nano. In addition, Apple is likely to split the stock this year. According to the Financial Times, Apple is

Google, Apple, Amazon 2009 Jockey Race – Amazon Wins!

2009-12-31T20:35:00.007-05:00

In a three way jockey race for share price appreciation in 2009, Amazon handily beat Google and Apple posting a return of 166% vs 148% for Apple and 102% for Google. All three were neck and neck through mid February until Amazon started shooting past Google and Apple but that lead only lasted through May when Apple caught up. Apple eventually overtakes Amazon in mid-July and continued to

Interesting Data Point on Google

2009-12-20T20:20:00.001-05:00

By Shawn AndersonWe were wondering why our Google ads for TMT Advisors were not showing up in several Google searches so we logged into our AdWords account to get a handle on the issue. The account was set up in the fourth quarter of 2008 when all was doom and gloom for anything finance related. Max first page CPC bids for each keyword were set at $0.25 and all keywords were finance/valuation

Verizon Claims Readiness for iPhone

2009-12-20T16:57:00.005-05:00

Verizon's Chief Technology Officer Anthony Melone stated in a Business Week interview that Verizon is capable of handling the extra traffic generated by the iPhone."We have put things in place already", "we are prepared to support that traffic"This lends support to my thinking that Verizon will get the iPhone when AT&T's exclusivity ends in "September 2009", although several people are doubting

Telecom Valuations

2009-12-20T11:37:00.002-05:00

Telecom Company Valuations

Media Valuations

2009-12-20T11:35:00.002-05:00

Media Company Valuations.

Internet Valuations

2009-12-20T11:32:00.003-05:00

Internet Equity Valuations.

Tech Valuations

2009-12-20T11:25:00.002-05:00

Latest Technology Equity Valuations

Google Gains More Search Share; Bing Notched Up; Yahoo Continues to Slide

2009-12-15T22:19:00.005-05:00

According to data from comScore, Google and Bing gained search share in November 2009, but Yahoo lost share. Google’s domestic search share increased to 65.6% from 65.4% in October and search volume grew 22% YoY, an acceleration from the 17% growth in October. Microsoft’s Bing search engine saw its share improve to 10.3% from 9.9% and its search volume grew 46% YoY, an acceleration from 31% in

Holiday eCommerce Spending up 3% YoY to $20bn

2009-12-13T20:45:00.008-05:00

comScore reported that online holiday spending reached $20 billion, up 3% YoY. The most recent week saw above average online spending growth of 4 percent versus year ago, as two individual days surpassed $800 million in spending, led by Thursday, Dec. 10, with $852 million. Ten Heaviest Online Spending Days on Record "Since comScore began tracking e-commerce spending in 2001, it has witnessed

Verizon/Qualcomm Global Dual Mode iPone in 3Q10

2009-12-12T10:57:00.003-05:00

Verizon, will indeed, get the iPhone in 2010, according to a source close enough to the table. The iPhone, scheduled for launch in the third quarter of 2010, is said to be a smaller version of the current iPhone and should be a hybrid global phone by Qualcomm. Several points real and inferred here:1) Verizon, not T-Mobile, gets the iPhone in 20102) It is a smaller version of the current iPhone.

Liberty Interested in Purchasing Blue Nile

2009-12-08T09:35:00.004-05:00

Speaking at the UBS Media Conference this morning, Liberty Media CEO John Maffei said that he is interested in purchasing Blue Nile but thinks the valuation is too expensive.

Good Times Ahead for Media Companies

2009-12-06T13:03:00.012-05:00

UBS is hosting a media conference this week in which, just about, every publicly traded major media company is presenting. See my write-up Stocks to Buy in a Cyclical Advertising Recovery. There is a lot for media companies and investors to be gleeful about these days. There was a major transaction in the space that is likely to spark additional mega and smaller mergers, and as the chart below

Bing’s Share Gains Driven by its OEM Relationships

2009-12-06T12:54:00.005-05:00

It appears that Bing’s share gains could be largely due to its OEM distribution relationships with HP, Dell, and Lenovo, rather than users making a conscious decision to shift from Yahoo, Google, and other search engines. Combined, the above three computer manufacturers have more than 50% market share in the U.S. and PC sales have been increasing over the past few months. As PC sales increase,