Tenets of Wilson

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Divisional Sunday

2025-01-20T22:00:00.001-06:00

Philadelphia over Buffalo

I didn't realize until just now that I only had 3 teams on top of the NFC all regular season, and it only transitioned twice, from New Orleans to Minnesota to Detroit. New Orleans was kind of a weird outlier because they started with 2 big wins, but by the time they lost to Philadelphia in week 3, Minnesota got their third win, two of which were by a huge scoring margin. Detroit lost their second game of the year, so it took them some time to overtake Minnesota. Philadelphia was a strong #2 most of the season. Towards the end of the game it looked like they'd be the next team knocked out on Sunday, but LA couldn't quite get it done. Baltimore and Buffalo, on the other hand, lived up to my nearly 50/50 projection, coming just one dropped 2 point conversion away from likely going to overtime.

Who am I rooting for next?
Record so far: 3-7

Washington at Philadelphia (65%)
I've never really rooted for Washington, but used to like Philadelphia back in the days of Donovan McNabb, TO, and Brian Westbrook. Let's go with Philadelphia again.

Buffalo (64%) at Kansas City
It's pretty amazing that Kansas City is in their 7th straight AFC Championship, and if not for the loss to Cincinnati in the 2021-22 playoffs, they would have a chance to go to their 6th straight Super Bowl. Of course, they do have a chance to make it 3 straight wins, which no one has ever done. So while I root for Kansas City anyway, I also root for "never/always" statistical records to get broken.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PHI	14-3	0.781	++	++	++	++	65.1	39.0
BUF	13-4	0.744	++	++	++	++	63.8	32.1
WSH	12-5	0.656	-	++	++	++	34.9	15.6
KC	15-2	0.622	++	++	++	++	36.2	13.3
DET	15-2	0.817	++	++	++	-	-	-
BAL	12-5	0.747	++	++	++	-	-	-
DEN	10-7	0.718	-	++	-	-	-	-
GB	11-6	0.716	-	++	-	-	-	-
LAC	11-6	0.704	-	++	-	-	-	-
TB	10-7	0.689	++	++	-	-	-	-
MIN	14-3	0.688	-	++	-	-	-	-
PIT	10-7	0.568	-	++	-	-	-	-
CIN	9-8	0.563	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	8-9	0.540	-	-	-	-	-	-
SEA	10-7	0.514	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	10-7	0.500	++	++	++	-	-	-
LAR	10-7	0.462	++	++	++	-	-	-
MIA	8-9	0.460	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	8-9	0.438	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-11	0.415	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	8-9	0.408	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-12	0.380	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	5-12	0.370	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	5-12	0.369	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	7-10	0.295	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	4-13	0.285	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	4-13	0.265	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	4-13	0.250	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-14	0.236	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	3-14	0.222	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-12	0.207	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-14	0.173	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 13, Friday)
First to clinch a Division: Buffalo (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a Bye: Kansas City (Week 17, Wednesday)

First teams eliminated from a division: New England, Las Vegas, and New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Giants (Week 13, Thursday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 10, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Friday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 16, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 16, Saturday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 16, Sunday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 16, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 17, Wednesday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 17, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 17, Saturday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 17, Sunday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 17, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 18, Saturday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 18, Final] Detroit over Baltimore
[Wildcard Saturday] Detroit over Baltimore
[Wildcard Sunday] Detroit over Baltimore
[Wildcard Monday] Detroit over Baltimore
[Divisional Saturday] Philadelphia over Kansas City

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Divisional Saturday

2025-01-19T10:00:00.001-06:00

Philadelphia over Kansas City

Detroit had been projected to make the Super Bowl after every game day since Week 8. They got the bye and everything, then couldn't quite keep up with Washington once they opened the playoffs. Maybe I can do better in the AFC, where, also since week 8, my only projected participants have been Buffalo, Kansas City, and Baltimore, the three teams that remain after Kansas City beat Houston on Saturday. Kansas City is now projected as the most likely AFC champ, but that's only because the other two are splitting the ticket until today's game. Kansas City's chances will remain at about 36%, and the winner of today's game will be about 64%.

Who am I rooting for next?
Record so far: 2-6

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia (81%)
I'll root for Philadelphia in this one, just because of my residual Kroenke distaste.

Baltimore (50%) at Buffalo
I think between these two teams, I'd rather see Buffalo win. However, between the two of them, I think Baltimore would be slightly easier for Kansas City to beat. For utilitarian purposes, I'll root for Baltimore.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PHI	14-3	0.781	++	++	++	80.5	52.5	31.4
WSH	12-5	0.656	-	++	++	++	41.5	18.5
BAL	12-5	0.747	++	++	++	50.5	32.4	17.4
BUF	13-4	0.744	++	++	++	49.5	31.6	16.8
KC	15-2	0.622	++	++	++	++	36.0	14.3
LAR	10-7	0.462	++	++	++	19.5	6.0	1.6
DET	15-2	0.817	++	++	++	-	-	-
DEN	10-7	0.718	-	++	-	-	-	-
GB	11-6	0.716	-	++	-	-	-	-
LAC	11-6	0.704	-	++	-	-	-	-
TB	10-7	0.689	++	++	-	-	-	-
MIN	14-3	0.688	-	++	-	-	-	-
PIT	10-7	0.568	-	++	-	-	-	-
CIN	9-8	0.563	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	8-9	0.540	-	-	-	-	-	-
SEA	10-7	0.514	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	10-7	0.500	++	++	++	-	-	-
MIA	8-9	0.460	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	8-9	0.438	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-11	0.415	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	8-9	0.408	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-12	0.380	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	5-12	0.370	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	5-12	0.369	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	7-10	0.295	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	4-13	0.285	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	4-13	0.265	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	4-13	0.250	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-14	0.236	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	3-14	0.222	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-12	0.207	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-14	0.173	-	-	-	-	-	-

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Wildcard Monday

2025-01-14T10:00:00.022-06:00

Detroit over Baltimore

LA took down Minnesota, and I went 1-5 in rooting this round. There are 8 teams left, so only 7 games remain to right my record.

Houston at Kansas City (62%)
Kansas City, of course.

Washington at Detroit (70%)
Let's go for both #1s and root for Detroit too.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	15-2	0.817	++	++	++	70.1	42.9	28.0
PHI	14-3	0.781	++	++	++	80.5	40.7	24.5
BAL	12-5	0.747	++	++	++	50.4	34.4	15.8
BUF	13-4	0.743	++	++	++	49.6	33.6	15.4
KC	15-2	0.622	++	++	++	62.2	22.4	7.3
WSH	12-5	0.656	-	++	++	29.9	12.4	5.6
HOU	10-7	0.500	++	++	++	37.8	9.6	2.2
LAR	10-7	0.462	++	++	++	19.5	4.0	1.1
DEN	10-7	0.718	-	++	-	-	-	-
GB	11-6	0.716	-	++	-	-	-	-
LAC	11-6	0.704	-	++	-	-	-	-
TB	10-7	0.689	++	++	-	-	-	-
MIN	14-3	0.687	-	++	-	-	-	-
PIT	10-7	0.568	-	++	-	-	-	-
CIN	9-8	0.563	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	8-9	0.540	-	-	-	-	-	-
SEA	10-7	0.514	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	8-9	0.460	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	8-9	0.438	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-11	0.415	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	8-9	0.408	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-12	0.380	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	5-12	0.371	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	5-12	0.370	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	7-10	0.295	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	4-13	0.285	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	4-13	0.266	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	4-13	0.250	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-14	0.236	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	3-14	0.222	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-12	0.207	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-14	0.173	-	-	-	-	-	-

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Wildcard Sunday

2025-01-13T10:00:00.041-06:00

Detroit over Baltimore

I rooted for Denver, Green Bay, and Tampa Bay on Sunday, and they all 3 lost. Let's see who I can curse today.

Minnesota (72%) at Los Angeles Rams
The first St. Louis Rams playoff game was against Minnesota in 2000, so I always associate this matchup with memories of attending the rally. Tickets for the game were near impossible to get of course. Specifically, I remember a ridiculous advertisement for bagels (I think Lender's) featuring a giant toaster and people dressed as Minnesota fans, ostensibly being toasted? Kind of a weird look for a human-based mascot, honestly. They also handed out blue and yellow bagels. Despite my silly memories, or maybe because of them, I'll root against LA and Stan Kroenke on Monday.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	15-2	0.817	++	++	++	70.1	42.3	27.7
PHI	14-3	0.781	++	++	++	67.1	33.9	20.4
BAL	12-5	0.747	++	++	++	50.4	34.4	16.0
BUF	13-4	0.744	++	++	++	49.6	33.6	15.5
KC	15-2	0.622	++	++	++	62.2	22.4	7.4
WSH	12-5	0.656	-	++	++	29.9	11.9	5.4
MIN	14-3	0.688	-	++	71.9	27.5	10.8	5.2
HOU	10-7	0.500	++	++	++	37.8	9.6	2.2
LAR	10-7	0.462	++	++	28.1	5.5	1.1	0.3
DEN	10-7	0.718	-	++	-	-	-	-
GB	11-6	0.716	-	++	-	-	-	-
LAC	11-6	0.704	-	++	-	-	-	-
TB	10-7	0.689	++	++	-	-	-	-
PIT	10-7	0.568	-	++	-	-	-	-
CIN	9-8	0.563	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	8-9	0.540	-	-	-	-	-	-
SEA	10-7	0.514	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	8-9	0.460	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	8-9	0.438	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-11	0.415	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	8-9	0.408	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-12	0.380	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	5-12	0.371	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	5-12	0.370	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	7-10	0.295	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	4-13	0.285	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	4-13	0.266	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	4-13	0.250	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-14	0.236	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	3-14	0.222	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-12	0.207	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-14	0.173	-	-	-	-	-	-

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Wildcard Saturday

2025-01-12T10:00:00.038-06:00

Detroit over Baltimore

On Saturday, Houston won at home in an upset over Los Angeles, and Baltimore took care of the flailing Pittsburgh.

Who am I rooting for on Sunday:

Denver at Buffalo (53%)
Denver is sneakily good for a 10-7 team that barely made the playoffs. I think I'll root for them, if nothing else to maybe give Kansas City a slightly better overall shot at the Superbowl.

Green Bay at Philadelphia (59%)
I kind of like both of these teams. Maybe it's the Green uniforms. I'll probably root for either winner next round. I'll root for Green Bay this time around, so I have to go re-re-redo my research about teams trying for a third win against the same opponent, as Detroit has already beaten them twice.

Washington at Tampa Bay (54%)
I used to really like Tampa Bay back in the days of Warren Sapp, Mike Alstott, and Martin Gramatica. Those guys are long gone, but let's root for Tampa Bay for old times' sake.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	15-2	0.817	++	++	++	68.1	43.3	28.3
BAL	12-5	0.747	++	++	++	61.8	38.5	18.3
PHI	14-3	0.781	++	++	58.6	37.6	18.9	11.4
BUF	13-4	0.744	++	++	53.2	26.4	17.9	8.4
KC	15-2	0.622	++	++	++	51.5	19.7	6.7
DEN	10-7	0.718	-	++	46.8	28.4	15.0	6.6
MIN	14-3	0.688	-	++	71.9	30.3	11.9	5.8
TB	10-7	0.689	++	++	53.7	24.6	9.5	4.6
GB	11-6	0.716	-	++	41.4	14.9	8.3	4.3
WSH	12-5	0.656	-	++	46.3	18.2	6.7	3.0
HOU	10-7	0.500	++	++	++	31.9	8.9	2.1
LAR	10-7	0.462	++	++	28.1	6.3	1.3	0.4
LAC	11-6	0.704	-	++	-	-	-	-
PIT	10-7	0.568	-	++	-	-	-	-
CIN	9-8	0.563	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	8-9	0.540	-	-	-	-	-	-
SEA	10-7	0.514	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	8-9	0.460	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	8-9	0.438	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-11	0.415	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	8-9	0.408	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-12	0.380	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	5-12	0.370	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	5-12	0.369	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	7-10	0.295	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	4-13	0.285	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	4-13	0.265	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	4-13	0.250	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-14	0.236	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	3-14	0.222	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-12	0.207	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-14	0.173	-	-	-	-	-	-

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 18, Final

2025-01-06T22:00:00.040-06:00

Detroit over Baltimore

Kansas City wasn't an overpowering team as it was, then they go and lose 38-0 in a game they didn't really show up for. That puts Baltimore as the top AFC team now, despite having to play during wildcard weekend. This is also Baltimore's first appearance on the projection this season.

Now, as is tradition, here's who I'm rooting for on Wildcard Saturday:

Los Angeles Chargers (70%) at Houston
I don't know, Harbaugh I guess. I don't care much about either of these two teams, but LA did execute a fair catch kick a few weeks ago. I do enjoy a good rulebook quirk.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (69%)
I've got to root for my Pittsburgh pals, although I don't seem to have the strong distaste for Baltimore that I used to.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	15-2	0.817	++	++	++	68.1	43.4	28.4
PHI	14-3	0.781	++	++	58.6	37.6	18.9	11.4
BAL	12-5	0.747	++	++	69.2	38.4	22.9	10.9
BUF	13-4	0.744	++	++	53.2	28.2	17.8	8.4
LAC	11-6	0.704	-	++	70.4	37.2	18.9	8.0
DEN	10-7	0.718	-	++	46.8	28.4	15.1	6.7
KC	15-2	0.622	++	++	++	44.9	17.7	6.0
MIN	14-3	0.688	-	++	71.9	30.3	11.9	5.8
TB	10-7	0.689	++	++	53.7	24.6	9.5	4.6
GB	11-6	0.716	-	++	41.4	14.9	8.3	4.3
WSH	12-5	0.656	-	++	46.3	18.2	6.7	3.0
PIT	10-7	0.568	-	++	30.8	13.3	4.8	1.4
HOU	10-7	0.500	++	++	29.6	9.6	2.9	0.7
LAR	10-7	0.462	++	++	28.1	6.3	1.3	0.4
CIN	9-8	0.563	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	8-9	0.540	-	-	-	-	-	-
SEA	10-7	0.514	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	8-9	0.460	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	8-9	0.438	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-11	0.415	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	8-9	0.408	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-12	0.380	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	5-12	0.370	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	5-12	0.369	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	7-10	0.295	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	4-13	0.285	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	4-13	0.265	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	4-13	0.250	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-14	0.236	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	3-14	0.222	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-12	0.207	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-14	0.173	-	-	-	-	-	-

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 18, Saturday

2025-01-05T10:00:00.005-06:00

Detroit over Kansas City

I'm not sure exactly what the NFL was hoping for by putting both games from the same division on Saturday. It kind of worked out, in that Pittsburgh was motivated to try to win to at least get a higher wildcard seed, although if Baltimore had lost, they'd be playing for the division title. Cincinnati needed a win to stay alive and got it, without any concurrent games by Denver or Miami going on to knock them out. The final Sunday has 2 NFC divisions left to settle, with the NFC South loser getting left out of the playoffs, while the NFC North loser will be just about the best wildcard team ever. The AFC has one wildcard spot to give out, with Denver, Miami, and the aforementioned Cincinnati in the hunt.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	14-2	0.786	58.7	++	89.2	55.2	33.0	20.0
KC	15-1	0.693	++	++	++	59.7	28.1	12.5
BUF	13-3	0.747	++	++	68.1	37.5	22.4	11.4
BAL	12-5	0.747	++	++	67.4	36.9	22.0	11.2
PHI	13-3	0.764	++	++	57.3	35.4	18.9	10.9
MIN	14-2	0.721	41.3	++	80.6	41.4	19.6	10.2
LAC	10-6	0.680	-	++	65.2	31.1	14.9	6.4
GB	11-5	0.717	-	++	47.4	21.3	11.0	5.7
WSH	11-5	0.648	-	++	55.5	21.8	8.5	3.7
TB	9-7	0.675	81.6	81.6	37.9	16.9	7.1	3.3
PIT	10-7	0.568	-	++	35.2	13.3	4.9	1.6
DEN	9-7	0.649	-	45.1	17.4	7.8	3.6	1.4
HOU	9-7	0.482	++	++	32.2	9.0	2.6	0.6
LAR	10-6	0.472	++	++	28.2	6.9	1.6	0.5
CIN	9-8	0.563	-	19.8	6.0	2.2	0.8	0.3
MIA	8-8	0.485	-	35.2	8.5	2.5	0.8	0.2
ATL	8-8	0.446	18.4	18.4	3.9	1.0	0.2	0.1
SEA	9-7	0.504	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	7-9	0.496	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-10	0.455	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	7-9	0.402	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-11	0.395	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	4-12	0.366	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-12	0.346	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	7-9	0.304	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	4-12	0.290	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	4-12	0.288	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-13	0.255	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-13	0.242	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	3-13	0.239	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	4-12	0.196	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-14	0.173	-	-	-	-	-	-

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 17, Final

2024-12-31T22:00:00.015-06:00

Detroit over Kansas City

If you're not seeing this until the following Sunday, I assure you it's not because I forgot to post it. It doesn't matter too much, because despite involving the top team in the NFC, the Monday night game didn't really matter, and the winner of Detroit and Minnesota in Week 18 will get the bye, while the loser will be the #5 seed and most likely travel to Atlanta, Tampa Bay, or maybe LA.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	14-2	0.786	58.7	++	89.2	55.2	33.0	20.4
KC	15-1	0.693	++	++	++	59.2	29.2	13.0
BUF	13-3	0.747	++	++	67.3	40.9	24.3	12.4
PHI	13-3	0.764	++	++	57.3	35.4	18.9	11.1
MIN	14-2	0.721	41.3	++	80.6	41.4	19.6	10.5
BAL	11-5	0.709	94.9	++	59.0	30.3	16.8	7.8
LAC	10-6	0.680	-	++	56.8	28.8	14.2	6.1
GB	11-5	0.717	-	++	47.4	21.3	11.0	5.8
WSH	11-5	0.648	-	++	55.5	21.8	8.5	3.8
TB	9-7	0.675	81.6	81.6	37.9	16.9	7.1	3.4
PIT	10-6	0.571	5.1	++	48.2	17.5	6.5	2.1
DEN	9-7	0.649	-	55.2	21.3	9.6	4.8	1.9
HOU	9-7	0.482	++	++	36.1	10.1	3.0	0.7
LAR	10-6	0.472	++	++	28.2	6.9	1.6	0.5
MIA	8-8	0.485	-	35.2	8.5	2.5	0.8	0.2
CIN	8-8	0.558	-	9.6	2.9	1.0	0.4	0.1
ATL	8-8	0.446	18.4	18.4	3.9	1.0	0.2	0.1
SEA	9-7	0.504	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	7-9	0.496	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-10	0.455	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	7-9	0.402	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-11	0.395	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	4-12	0.366	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-12	0.346	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	7-9	0.304	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	4-12	0.290	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	4-12	0.287	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-13	0.255	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-13	0.242	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	3-13	0.239	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-13	0.211	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	4-12	0.196	-	-	-	-	-	-

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 17, Sunday

2024-12-30T10:00:00.023-06:00

Detroit over Kansas City

Seattle and Indianapolis both lost to eliminate themselves from the playoffs on Sunday, while Washington won to put themselves in, and I believe Washington beating Atlanta was the final straw to eliminate Seattle via a low Strength of Victory, and give the LA Rams the NFC West. All the NFC wildcards are spoken for, so the last spot in will be the NFC South winner, Tampa Bay or Atlanta, with second place eliminated. Detroit's game tonight almost doesn't matter, because if they can beat Minnesota next week, they'll have the tiebreaker. A win tonight would at least allow them to play for a tie next week.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	13-2	0.780	57.8	++	88.7	54.2	32.0	19.5
KC	15-1	0.692	++	++	++	59.2	29.2	13.1
BUF	13-3	0.747	++	++	67.3	40.9	24.3	12.5
PHI	13-3	0.764	++	++	57.3	35.5	19.1	11.3
MIN	14-2	0.721	42.2	++	80.9	41.7	19.9	10.7
BAL	11-5	0.709	94.9	++	59.0	30.3	16.8	7.8
LAC	10-6	0.680	-	++	56.8	28.8	14.2	6.1
GB	11-5	0.717	-	++	47.4	21.5	11.2	5.9
WSH	11-5	0.647	-	++	55.5	22.0	8.6	3.9
TB	9-7	0.675	81.6	81.6	38.0	17.0	7.2	3.5
PIT	10-6	0.571	5.1	++	48.2	17.6	6.5	2.1
DEN	9-7	0.649	-	55.2	21.3	9.6	4.8	1.9
HOU	9-7	0.482	++	++	36.1	10.1	3.0	0.8
LAR	10-6	0.472	++	++	28.3	7.0	1.7	0.5
MIA	8-8	0.485	-	35.2	8.5	2.5	0.9	0.2
CIN	8-8	0.558	-	9.6	2.9	1.0	0.4	0.1
ATL	8-8	0.446	18.4	18.4	4.0	1.1	0.2	0.1
SEA	9-7	0.504	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	7-9	0.496	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-9	0.465	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	7-9	0.402	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-11	0.395	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	4-12	0.366	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-12	0.346	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	7-9	0.304	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	4-12	0.290	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	4-12	0.288	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-13	0.255	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-13	0.243	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	3-13	0.239	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-13	0.211	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	4-12	0.196	-	-	-	-	-	-

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 17, Saturday

2024-12-29T10:00:00.044-06:00

Detroit over Kansas City

The NFL keeps finding itself in situations that look fixed. For example, after the LA Chargers won to clinch a playoff spot at noon, Denver could have finished out the AFC with a win at 3, but instead they lost, and to a team that now holds a tiebreaker over them, keeping the AFC interesting today and next week. Indianapolis and Miami have 4 total games against teams that have been eliminated for awhile now, while Cincinnati plays Pittsburgh next week, who may or may not still be fighting for their division, depending on gametimes, but have also lost 3 in a row.

In the NFC, the LA Rams won their game and could clinch the division today based on strength of victory. If Tampa Bay wins today, Atlanta vs Washington tonight will be a battle to stay alive in the playoff race. If Tampa Bay loses, Philadelphia wins to eliminate them from the division, and Green Bay wins, Washington may sit back and relax, content with their playoff berth instead of fighting for a chance to reach the #6 seed.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	13-2	0.780	75.1	++	94.2	58.8	36.2	22.6
KC	15-1	0.692	++	++	++	59.1	30.4	13.9
MIN	13-2	0.717	24.9	++	76.8	39.7	19.4	10.6
BUF	12-3	0.711	++	++	63.5	35.8	19.7	9.5
GB	11-4	0.719	-	++	64.5	31.1	15.8	8.6
BAL	11-5	0.709	93.9	++	59.3	32.5	18.0	8.6
PHI	12-3	0.712	99.1	++	56.7	32.9	15.2	8.2
LAC	10-6	0.680	-	++	57.0	29.5	15.0	6.7
WSH	10-5	0.638	0.9	96.7	47.0	17.5	7.3	3.3
DEN	9-7	0.649	-	62.0	26.6	12.0	6.0	2.4
PIT	10-6	0.571	6.1	++	47.8	17.9	6.9	2.3
TB	8-7	0.624	51.2	54.5	21.9	9.2	3.5	1.5
HOU	9-7	0.482	++	++	35.9	10.5	3.2	0.8
LAR	10-6	0.472	99.9	99.9	27.2	7.6	1.9	0.6
ATL	8-7	0.457	48.8	48.8	11.7	3.3	0.8	0.2
CIN	8-8	0.558	-	8.5	2.9	1.0	0.4	0.1
IND	7-8	0.421	-	17.9	4.1	1.0	0.3	0.1
MIA	7-8	0.450	-	11.6	2.9	0.8	0.2	0.1
SEA	9-7	0.504	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	7-9	0.496	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-9	0.465	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-10	0.426	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-11	0.394	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	4-12	0.366	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	7-8	0.359	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	3-12	0.284	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-12	0.271	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	3-12	0.268	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-12	0.246	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-13	0.243	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	4-11	0.237	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-13	0.212	-	-	-	-	-	-

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 17, Thursday

2024-12-27T22:00:00.001-06:00

Detroit over Kansas City

Seattle was fighting for the playoff lives on Thursday, as I believe they needed a win to stay alive in the NFC West race. They pulled off a stunning 6-3 victory featuring no second half points. I'm sure Bezos is thrilled. Saturday's games are all on NFL Network, which means I get no bonus football day this week. LA and Denver could lock up the last AFC playoff spots, and in the NFC, LA can almost clinch, needing but would need some help from other teams later. If Seattle were to beat LA next Sunday, the first 4 tiebreakers would not be able to break the tie, and it would come down to strength of victory. While they had the same record in their 14 common games, they beat different teams, and LA has a significant lead in SOV so far.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	13-2	0.780	75.0	++	94.6	59.0	36.3	22.8
KC	15-1	0.692	++	++	++	59.8	31.3	14.3
MIN	13-2	0.718	25.0	++	77.1	39.8	19.4	10.7
BUF	12-3	0.711	++	++	60.1	34.2	19.3	9.2
BAL	11-5	0.709	93.8	++	61.6	34.7	19.3	9.2
GB	11-4	0.719	-	++	64.1	30.9	15.7	8.7
PHI	12-3	0.712	99.1	++	56.7	32.8	15.1	8.2
DEN	9-6	0.661	-	85.8	39.2	18.6	9.7	4.1
LAC	9-6	0.616	-	97.7	46.8	21.0	9.2	3.5
WSH	10-5	0.638	0.9	96.7	46.3	17.2	7.2	3.3
PIT	10-6	0.571	6.2	++	49.6	19.0	7.4	2.5
TB	8-7	0.624	51.2	54.5	22.5	9.4	3.5	1.6
HOU	9-7	0.482	++	++	38.5	11.5	3.5	0.9
LAR	9-6	0.465	70.7	70.7	18.5	5.1	1.2	0.4
SEA	9-7	0.504	29.3	29.3	8.5	2.6	0.7	0.2
ATL	8-7	0.457	48.8	48.8	11.7	3.2	0.8	0.2
CIN	7-8	0.548	-	3.1	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0
IND	7-8	0.421	-	8.2	1.9	0.5	0.1	0.0
MIA	7-8	0.450	-	5.1	1.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
ARI	7-8	0.504	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-9	0.465	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-10	0.426	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-11	0.394	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	4-12	0.366	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	7-8	0.359	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-12	0.297	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	3-12	0.284	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-12	0.271	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	3-12	0.268	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-12	0.246	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	4-11	0.237	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-13	0.212	-	-	-	-	-	-

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 17, Wednesday

2024-12-26T10:00:00.003-06:00

Detroit over Kansas City

The league did a good job of projecting 4 relevant teams to play on Christmas day. Kansas City clinched the #1 seed with a win against Pittsburgh, who is in a division title battle with Baltimore, who played Houston, a team that has already won their division and was jockeying for playoff seeding. Houston will now be locked in as the #4 team, and will play the top wildcard, likely to be Pittsburgh but also possibly LA, Denver, or Baltimore.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	13-2	0.780	75.1	++	94.6	59.0	36.3	22.8
KC	15-1	0.693	++	++	++	59.8	31.3	14.3
MIN	13-2	0.718	24.9	++	77.1	39.8	19.5	10.7
BUF	12-3	0.711	++	++	60.1	34.2	19.3	9.2
BAL	11-5	0.709	93.8	++	61.6	34.7	19.3	9.2
GB	11-4	0.719	-	++	64.2	30.9	15.7	8.7
PHI	12-3	0.713	99.1	++	56.7	32.8	15.1	8.2
DEN	9-6	0.661	-	85.8	39.2	18.6	9.7	4.1
LAC	9-6	0.616	-	97.7	46.8	21.0	9.2	3.5
WSH	10-5	0.638	0.9	96.7	46.3	17.2	7.2	3.3
PIT	10-6	0.571	6.2	++	49.6	19.0	7.4	2.5
TB	8-7	0.624	51.2	54.5	22.6	9.5	3.5	1.6
HOU	9-7	0.482	++	++	38.5	11.5	3.5	0.9
LAR	9-6	0.465	71.1	71.1	18.7	5.1	1.2	0.4
ATL	8-7	0.457	48.8	48.8	11.7	3.3	0.8	0.2
SEA	8-7	0.498	28.9	28.9	8.2	2.5	0.7	0.2
CIN	7-8	0.548	-	3.1	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0
IND	7-8	0.421	-	8.2	1.9	0.5	0.1	0.0
MIA	7-8	0.450	-	5.1	1.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
ARI	7-8	0.504	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-9	0.465	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-10	0.426	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-11	0.394	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	4-11	0.378	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	7-8	0.359	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-12	0.297	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	3-12	0.284	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-12	0.271	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	3-12	0.268	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-12	0.246	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	4-11	0.237	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-13	0.212	-	-	-	-	-	-

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 16, Final

2024-12-24T22:00:00.001-06:00

Detroit over Kansas City

Green Bay grabbed their playoff spot decisively, winning 34-0 against New Orleans on Monday night. They can't win their division with Detroit and Minnesota each but not both possible to catch but not pass. In other words, Green Bay could finish 13-4, and so could one of Detroit or Minnesota, but not both.

One fun thing I noticed is that Atlanta, Seattle, and the LA Rams will only make the playoffs as division winners, because their chances are idential for winning the division and making the playoffs, while Tampa has a slightly higher playoff chance. So while we now have 5 teams in the mix for 3 playoff spots, Seattle and LA are really fighting for one, while Washington, Atlanta, and Tampa Bay are going for the other two.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	13-2	0.780	75.1	++	94.6	59.0	36.3	23.6
MIN	13-2	0.718	24.9	++	77.1	39.8	19.5	11.1
BUF	12-3	0.711	++	++	65.9	39.5	23.1	11.1
KC	14-1	0.656	++	++	92.5	49.7	24.8	10.4
GB	11-4	0.719	-	++	64.2	30.9	15.7	9.0
PHI	12-3	0.713	99.1	++	56.7	32.8	15.1	8.6
BAL	10-5	0.663	56.5	++	57.3	29.1	15.0	6.4
DEN	9-6	0.661	-	87.3	41.5	20.7	11.1	4.7
LAC	9-6	0.616	-	97.7	48.3	22.5	10.1	3.8
PIT	10-5	0.608	43.5	++	50.0	22.2	9.9	3.6
WSH	10-5	0.638	0.9	96.7	46.3	17.2	7.2	3.5
HOU	9-6	0.539	++	++	40.6	15.0	5.7	1.7
TB	8-7	0.624	51.2	54.5	22.6	9.5	3.5	1.7
LAR	9-6	0.465	71.1	71.1	18.6	5.1	1.2	0.4
ATL	8-7	0.457	48.8	48.8	11.7	3.3	0.8	0.2
SEA	8-7	0.498	28.9	28.9	8.2	2.5	0.7	0.2
CIN	7-8	0.548	-	2.6	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
IND	7-8	0.421	-	7.5	1.8	0.5	0.1	0.0
MIA	7-8	0.450	-	4.8	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.0
ARI	7-8	0.504	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-9	0.465	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-10	0.426	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-11	0.394	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	4-11	0.378	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	7-8	0.359	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-12	0.297	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	3-12	0.284	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-12	0.271	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	3-12	0.268	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-12	0.246	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	4-11	0.237	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-13	0.212	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 13, Friday)
First to clinch a Division: Buffalo (Week 13, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from a division: New England, Las Vegas, and New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Giants (Week 13, Thursday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 10, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Friday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 16, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 16, Saturday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 16, Sunday] Detroit over Kansas City

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 16, Sunday

2024-12-23T10:00:00.018-06:00

Detroit over Kansas City

No one clinched any new playoff spots on Sunday, but Arizona, New Orleans, Dallas, and San Francisco were all eliminated, clearing up the NFC a little bit. 3 teams are already in, leaving 6 to fight for 4 spots, and Green Bay could grab one or those with a win on Monday. Things got even weirder in the AFC, with Buffalo the most likely Super Bowl winner, but Kansas City still the most likely to make it to the Super Bowl. That's the power of that first round bye.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	13-2	0.780	72.8	++	94.1	60.7	38.0	24.7
MIN	13-2	0.718	27.2	++	78.3	42.2	20.9	12.0
BUF	12-3	0.712	++	++	65.9	39.5	23.1	11.2
KC	14-1	0.656	++	++	92.5	49.7	24.8	10.5
PHI	12-3	0.713	99.1	++	58.3	34.4	16.2	9.1
BAL	10-5	0.663	56.5	++	57.3	29.1	15.0	6.5
GB	10-4	0.662	-	99.4	54.1	22.1	10.0	5.1
DEN	9-6	0.661	-	87.3	41.5	20.7	11.1	4.8
WSH	10-5	0.638	0.9	97.1	50.4	19.1	8.2	3.9
LAC	9-6	0.616	-	97.7	48.4	22.5	10.1	3.9
PIT	10-5	0.608	43.5	++	50.0	22.2	9.9	3.7
HOU	9-6	0.539	++	++	40.6	15.0	5.7	1.8
TB	8-7	0.624	48.0	51.5	22.5	9.5	3.6	1.7
LAR	9-6	0.465	71.2	71.2	20.1	5.6	1.4	0.4
ATL	8-7	0.457	52.0	52.0	13.3	3.8	0.9	0.3
SEA	8-7	0.498	28.8	28.8	8.8	2.7	0.7	0.3
CIN	7-8	0.548	-	2.6	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
IND	7-8	0.421	-	7.5	1.8	0.5	0.1	0.0
MIA	7-8	0.450	-	4.8	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.0
ARI	7-8	0.504	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-9	0.494	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-9	0.465	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-11	0.394	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	4-11	0.378	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	7-8	0.359	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-12	0.297	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	3-12	0.284	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-12	0.271	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	3-12	0.268	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-12	0.246	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	4-11	0.237	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-13	0.212	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 13, Friday)
First to clinch a Division: Buffalo (Week 13, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from a division: New England, Las Vegas, and New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Giants (Week 13, Thursday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 10, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Friday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 16, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 16, Saturday] Detroit over Kansas City

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 16, Saturday

2024-12-22T22:00:00.012-06:00

Detroit over Kansas City

Kansas City's win in the early game took the wind out of Pittsburgh's sails, eliminating them from getting the #1 seed. It's now down to Buffalo or Kansas City in the AFC. Pittsburgh went on to lose, allowing Baltimore to clinch a playoff berth, and the lead in division-winning chances. Also, after many weeks of Detroit and Buffalo, we finally have a change in the projection. It's interesting because head to head, Buffalo would project to beat Kansas City, and both are already in the playoffs. But, the fact that Kansas City is in the bye position means they have a much greater chance of making it to the second weekend of the playoffs right now, and that increased chance cascades all the way through to the end.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	12-2	0.756	73.3	++	87.2	53.8	31.7	19.7
PHI	12-2	0.721	99.5	++	69.6	40.9	20.9	12.1
MIN	12-2	0.713	26.7	++	75.1	39.7	20.2	11.5
KC	14-1	0.656	++	++	93.9	50.0	25.2	11.1
BUF	11-3	0.703	++	++	62.8	37.2	21.3	10.5
BAL	10-5	0.663	53.7	++	57.4	29.5	15.2	6.8
GB	10-4	0.662	-	99.5	54.1	23.4	10.7	5.5
DEN	9-6	0.661	-	92.8	44.6	22.4	12.0	5.4
LAC	9-6	0.616	-	98.8	48.7	22.8	10.3	4.1
PIT	10-5	0.607	46.3	++	49.9	22.3	10.0	3.9
WSH	9-5	0.636	0.5	90.5	41.0	16.3	7.2	3.4
TB	8-6	0.627	84.6	89.0	40.2	16.7	6.8	3.2
HOU	9-6	0.539	++	++	40.5	15.1	5.7	1.9
SEA	8-6	0.504	43.0	43.3	13.1	4.0	1.2	0.4
LAR	8-6	0.447	41.3	41.5	10.5	2.7	0.7	0.2
ARI	7-7	0.516	15.7	16.0	4.8	1.5	0.5	0.2
ATL	7-7	0.406	15.4	20.1	4.5	1.0	0.2	0.1
CIN	6-8	0.519	-	3.4	1.1	0.4	0.2	0.0
MIA	6-8	0.425	-	2.3	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0
IND	6-8	0.402	-	2.8	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0
NO	5-9	0.494	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DAL	6-8	0.356	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
SF	6-8	0.488	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	4-10	0.416	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	4-10	0.411	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-11	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	3-11	0.297	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-11	0.280	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-11	0.279	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	2-12	0.267	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-12	0.256	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	3-11	0.229	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 13, Friday)
First to clinch a Division: Buffalo (Week 13, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from a division: New England, Las Vegas, and New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Giants (Week 13, Thursday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 10, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Friday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 16, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 16, Thursday

2024-12-20T22:00:00.001-06:00

Detroit over Buffalo

The LA Chargers beat Denver to take both teams to 9-6 on Thursday. Neither has clinched a playoff spot but both are very close. They won't clinch on Saturday, but could on Sunday, wrapping up the AFC playoff picture except for the seeding. Of interest on Saturday, 2 of the 3 possible #1 seeds are playing. Kansas City is the most likely to get the bye, and they play Houston, who is already in as a division winner, but will wind up somewhere between the #2 and #4 seed. Pittsburgh has an outside chance at the #1 seed still, and they'll play Baltimore, who could still win the NFC North, or miss the playoffs completely.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	12-2	0.756	73.3	++	87.2	53.8	31.7	19.8
PHI	12-2	0.721	99.5	++	69.6	40.9	20.9	12.1
BUF	11-3	0.703	++	++	69.6	41.0	23.8	11.8
MIN	12-2	0.712	26.7	++	75.1	39.7	20.2	11.5
KC	13-1	0.641	++	++	85.2	43.8	21.3	9.1
DEN	9-6	0.661	-	93.3	46.3	23.5	12.5	5.6
GB	10-4	0.662	-	99.5	54.1	23.4	10.7	5.5
PIT	10-4	0.640	76.3	++	52.9	26.1	12.8	5.4
BAL	9-5	0.637	23.7	98.9	53.0	25.7	12.4	5.2
LAC	9-6	0.616	-	98.8	48.6	22.7	10.4	4.2
WSH	9-5	0.636	0.5	90.5	41.0	16.3	7.2	3.5
TB	8-6	0.626	84.6	89.0	40.2	16.7	6.8	3.2
HOU	9-5	0.555	++	++	41.9	16.5	6.5	2.2
SEA	8-6	0.504	43.0	43.3	13.1	4.0	1.2	0.4
LAR	8-6	0.447	41.3	41.5	10.5	2.7	0.7	0.2
ARI	7-7	0.516	15.7	16.0	4.8	1.5	0.5	0.2
ATL	7-7	0.406	15.4	20.1	4.5	1.0	0.2	0.1
CIN	6-8	0.519	-	3.0	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0
IND	6-8	0.402	-	3.5	0.9	0.2	0.1	0.0
MIA	6-8	0.425	-	2.6	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0
NO	5-9	0.494	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DAL	6-8	0.356	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
SF	6-8	0.488	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	4-10	0.416	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	4-10	0.411	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-11	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	3-11	0.297	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-11	0.280	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-11	0.279	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	2-12	0.267	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-12	0.256	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	3-11	0.229	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 13, Friday)
First to clinch a Division: Buffalo (Week 13, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from a division: New England, Las Vegas, and New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Giants (Week 13, Thursday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 10, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Friday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Final] Detroit over Buffalo

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 15, Final

2024-12-17T22:00:00.001-06:00

Detroit over Buffalo

The double Monday Night games didn't gain us any more playoff teams or eliminations, so everything stays pretty much the same. We do show Green Bay eliminated from the NFC North, but a tie between Detroit and Minnesota later could leave that window open for them.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	12-2	0.756	73.3	++	87.2	53.8	31.7	19.7
PHI	12-2	0.721	99.5	++	69.6	40.9	20.9	12.1
BUF	11-3	0.703	++	++	71.1	41.8	24.1	11.9
MIN	12-2	0.712	26.7	++	75.1	39.7	20.2	11.5
KC	13-1	0.641	++	++	85.7	44.1	21.2	9.0
DEN	9-5	0.677	-	97.4	53.4	28.3	15.3	7.1
GB	10-4	0.662	-	99.5	54.1	23.4	10.7	5.5
PIT	10-4	0.640	76.3	++	52.1	25.4	12.4	5.3
BAL	9-5	0.637	23.7	99.0	52.4	25.2	12.1	5.1
WSH	9-5	0.636	0.5	90.5	41.0	16.3	7.2	3.4
LAC	8-6	0.605	-	90.3	40.9	18.4	8.3	3.2
TB	8-6	0.626	84.6	89.0	40.2	16.7	6.8	3.2
HOU	9-5	0.555	++	++	40.8	15.9	6.3	2.1
SEA	8-6	0.504	43.1	43.5	13.2	4.0	1.2	0.4
LAR	8-6	0.447	41.1	41.4	10.5	2.7	0.7	0.2
ARI	7-7	0.516	15.7	16.0	4.8	1.5	0.5	0.2
ATL	7-7	0.406	15.4	20.1	4.5	1.0	0.2	0.1
IND	6-8	0.403	-	8.1	2.0	0.5	0.1	0.0
MIA	6-8	0.425	-	3.9	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0
CIN	6-8	0.519	-	1.3	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0
NO	5-9	0.494	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DAL	6-8	0.356	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
SF	6-8	0.488	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	4-10	0.416	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	4-10	0.411	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-11	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	3-11	0.297	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-11	0.280	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-11	0.279	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	2-12	0.267	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-12	0.256	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	3-11	0.230	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 13, Friday)
First to clinch a Division: Buffalo (Week 13, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from a division: New England, Las Vegas, and New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Giants (Week 13, Thursday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 10, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Friday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 15, Sunday

2024-12-16T22:00:00.005-06:00

Detroit over Buffalo

We had a possible Super Bowl Prematch, a word I just made up. I had Detroit favored to win, and still would, but Buffalo won by scoring 48 of the 90(!) points in that game. Minnesota and Pittsburgh are into the playoffs, along with Houston winning the AFC South. Meanwhile, Carolina eliminated themselves with a loss, and Chicago has been eliminated by some combination of wins that raised the minimum bar for the #7 NFC seed. So now we've got 7 teams in, 9 teams out, 7 spots left up for grabs, and 9 eliminations to go.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	12-2	0.756	80.9	++	87.4	55.0	32.9	20.5
PHI	12-2	0.721	99.5	++	70.7	42.3	21.9	12.7
BUF	11-3	0.703	++	++	71.2	41.8	24.1	12.1
KC	13-1	0.642	++	++	85.8	44.1	21.2	9.2
MIN	11-2	0.682	18.9	++	69.0	33.7	16.0	8.5
DEN	9-5	0.677	-	97.4	53.5	28.3	15.3	7.2
GB	10-4	0.662	0.1	99.7	54.5	24.1	11.2	5.7
PIT	10-4	0.641	76.3	++	52.2	25.4	12.4	5.4
BAL	9-5	0.637	23.7	99.0	52.4	25.2	12.1	5.2
WSH	9-5	0.636	0.5	93.3	42.5	17.2	7.7	3.7
TB	8-6	0.627	89.6	92.3	42.3	18.1	7.5	3.5
LAC	8-6	0.605	-	90.0	40.7	18.3	8.2	3.2
HOU	9-5	0.555	++	++	40.8	15.9	6.3	2.2
SEA	8-6	0.504	43.3	43.6	14.0	4.3	1.3	0.5
LAR	8-6	0.447	40.8	41.1	11.2	2.9	0.7	0.2
ARI	7-7	0.516	15.9	16.2	5.3	1.7	0.5	0.2
ATL	6-7	0.399	10.4	13.6	3.1	0.7	0.2	0.0
IND	6-8	0.402	-	8.3	2.0	0.5	0.1	0.0
MIA	6-8	0.425	-	4.0	1.1	0.3	0.1	0.0
CIN	6-8	0.519	-	1.3	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0
NO	5-9	0.494	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DAL	6-8	0.356	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
SF	6-8	0.488	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-9	0.449	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-10	0.416	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-11	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	3-11	0.297	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	2-11	0.285	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-11	0.280	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-11	0.279	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-12	0.256	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	3-11	0.229	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 13, Friday)
First to clinch a Division: Buffalo (Week 13, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from a division: New England, Las Vegas, and New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Giants (Week 13, Thursday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 10, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Friday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 15, Thursday

2024-12-13T22:00:00.002-06:00

Detroit over Buffalo

A touchdown-free game between two middling teams didn't do much except falsely eliminate San Francisco from the division in my standings. I believe a tie between Seattle and the LA Rams (and a bunch of other games going correctly) would allow San Francisco to still win the division.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	12-1	0.767	89.2	++	94.8	62.3	39.7	25.5
BUF	10-3	0.702	++	++	67.2	39.5	23.3	11.6
PHI	11-2	0.696	97.4	++	63.1	37.5	17.7	9.9
MIN	11-2	0.682	10.8	100.0	68.9	34.7	16.5	8.9
PIT	10-3	0.663	88.0	99.9	61.0	32.2	17.2	7.8
KC	12-1	0.611	++	++	84.9	41.7	18.9	7.6
LAC	8-5	0.657	-	92.6	49.5	25.9	13.5	6.1
DEN	8-5	0.644	-	83.6	42.5	21.7	10.9	4.8
GB	9-4	0.633	0.0	95.4	51.3	20.7	9.1	4.4
WSH	8-5	0.631	2.6	88.9	44.4	17.4	7.9	3.8
BAL	8-5	0.604	12.0	93.2	45.6	20.8	9.5	3.7
TB	7-6	0.590	74.6	78.6	33.5	13.7	5.1	2.3
HOU	8-5	0.538	97.0	97.5	39.6	15.2	5.9	2.0
SEA	8-5	0.537	55.8	60.6	22.9	8.0	2.6	1.0
LAR	8-6	0.447	37.1	39.5	11.5	3.2	0.8	0.2
IND	6-7	0.438	3.0	20.2	5.9	1.8	0.6	0.1
ATL	6-7	0.399	24.2	26.8	6.4	1.6	0.4	0.1
MIA	6-7	0.443	-	12.1	3.5	1.1	0.3	0.1
ARI	6-7	0.490	7.1	8.3	2.6	0.8	0.2	0.1
NO	5-8	0.496	1.2	1.6	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0
CIN	5-8	0.503	-	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
SF	6-8	0.488	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DAL	5-8	0.334	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	3-10	0.254	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-9	0.449	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	3-10	0.400	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-10	0.326	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-10	0.309	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	3-10	0.307	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-10	0.291	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-11	0.290	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	2-11	0.285	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 13, Friday)
First to clinch a Division: Buffalo (Week 13, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from a division: New England, Las Vegas, and New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Giants (Week 13, Thursday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 10, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Friday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Final] Detroit over Buffalo

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 14, Final

2024-12-10T22:00:00.001-06:00

Detroit over Buffalo

Cincinnati beat Dallas, but somehow neither team was eliminated. Give them another week or so.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	12-1	0.767	89.1	++	94.8	62.3	39.6	25.5
BUF	10-3	0.702	++	++	67.1	39.5	23.3	11.6
PHI	11-2	0.697	97.4	++	63.0	37.4	17.7	9.9
MIN	11-2	0.682	10.9	100.0	68.8	34.6	16.4	8.9
PIT	10-3	0.664	88.0	99.9	61.0	32.2	17.2	7.8
KC	12-1	0.612	++	++	84.9	41.7	18.8	7.6
LAC	8-5	0.657	-	92.7	49.5	25.9	13.5	6.1
DEN	8-5	0.644	-	83.7	42.6	21.7	10.9	4.8
GB	9-4	0.633	0.0	96.5	51.5	20.7	9.1	4.4
WSH	8-5	0.631	2.6	88.5	43.9	17.3	7.8	3.8
BAL	8-5	0.604	12.0	93.3	45.6	20.8	9.5	3.7
TB	7-6	0.590	74.6	78.8	33.6	13.7	5.1	2.3
HOU	8-5	0.538	97.0	97.5	39.6	15.2	5.9	2.0
SEA	8-5	0.537	66.0	68.8	26.0	9.2	2.9	1.1
LAR	7-6	0.439	24.5	25.8	7.2	2.0	0.5	0.1
IND	6-7	0.438	3.0	20.2	5.9	1.8	0.6	0.1
ATL	6-7	0.399	24.2	27.2	6.5	1.6	0.4	0.1
MIA	6-7	0.443	-	11.9	3.4	1.1	0.3	0.1
ARI	6-7	0.490	6.9	8.2	2.6	0.8	0.2	0.1
SF	6-7	0.500	2.6	4.4	1.4	0.4	0.1	0.0
NO	5-8	0.496	1.2	1.7	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0
CIN	5-8	0.503	-	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
DAL	5-8	0.334	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	3-10	0.254	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-9	0.449	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	3-10	0.400	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-10	0.326	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-10	0.309	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	3-10	0.307	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-10	0.291	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-11	0.290	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	2-11	0.285	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 13, Friday)
First to clinch a Division: Buffalo (Week 13, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from a division: New England, Las Vegas, and New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Giants (Week 13, Thursday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 10, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Friday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 14, Sunday

2024-12-09T22:00:00.001-06:00

Detroit over Buffalo

Philadelphia joins the playoff party with a win, and Kansas City once again magicked their way to a win which gave them a division title. Tennessee, the New York Jets, and Cleveland are all eliminated from the playoffs. Buffalo lost, opening the door for Kansas City to get the first round bye. Minnesota and Pittsburgh are on the brink of getting in, while Cincinnati, Dallas, Carolina, and Chicago are on the way out.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	12-1	0.767	89.1	++	94.8	62.3	39.7	25.5
BUF	10-3	0.702	++	++	67.1	39.5	23.2	11.6
PHI	11-2	0.697	97.4	++	63.1	37.4	17.7	9.9
MIN	11-2	0.682	10.9	100.0	68.8	34.6	16.4	8.9
PIT	10-3	0.664	88.2	99.9	61.0	32.2	17.2	7.8
KC	12-1	0.612	++	++	84.9	41.7	18.8	7.6
LAC	8-5	0.657	-	92.7	49.5	25.9	13.5	6.1
DEN	8-5	0.644	-	84.2	42.8	21.8	11.0	4.8
GB	9-4	0.633	0.0	96.4	51.5	20.7	9.1	4.4
WSH	8-5	0.631	2.6	88.0	43.7	17.2	7.7	3.7
BAL	8-5	0.604	11.8	93.3	45.6	20.8	9.5	3.7
TB	7-6	0.590	74.3	78.5	33.5	13.7	5.1	2.2
HOU	8-5	0.538	97.0	97.5	39.6	15.2	5.9	2.0
SEA	8-5	0.537	66.0	68.8	26.0	9.2	3.0	1.2
LAR	7-6	0.439	24.5	25.8	7.3	2.0	0.5	0.1
IND	6-7	0.438	3.0	20.1	5.9	1.8	0.6	0.1
ATL	6-7	0.399	24.5	27.4	6.6	1.6	0.4	0.1
MIA	6-7	0.443	-	11.8	3.4	1.1	0.3	0.1
ARI	6-7	0.490	6.9	8.2	2.6	0.8	0.2	0.1
SF	6-7	0.500	2.6	4.5	1.5	0.4	0.1	0.0
NO	5-8	0.496	1.2	1.7	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0
CIN	4-8	0.492	-	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
DAL	5-7	0.346	-	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	3-10	0.254	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-9	0.449	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	3-10	0.400	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-10	0.326	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-10	0.309	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	3-10	0.307	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-10	0.291	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-11	0.290	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	2-11	0.285	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 13, Friday)
First to clinch a Division: Buffalo (Week 13, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from a division: New England, Las Vegas, and New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Giants (Week 13, Thursday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 10, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Friday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 14, Thursday

2024-12-06T22:00:00.010-06:00

Detroit over Buffalo

Detroit clinched their playoff spot with a win on Thursday, but can't quite grab a division spot because of Minnesota right behind them. We should see a few more teams in and a few more out on Sunday.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	12-1	0.767	92.7	++	95.8	64.0	42.0	26.7
BUF	10-2	0.711	++	++	82.6	49.9	30.1	15.6
PHI	10-2	0.683	96.5	100.0	61.5	37.0	17.1	9.2
MIN	10-2	0.651	7.3	99.7	65.7	31.1	13.9	6.9
LAC	8-4	0.659	8.3	97.1	55.2	28.6	14.7	6.8
PIT	9-3	0.639	81.9	99.5	56.8	28.9	14.1	6.2
KC	11-1	0.606	90.8	++	67.4	32.5	14.3	5.8
DEN	8-5	0.644	1.0	86.0	44.9	21.8	11.0	4.9
GB	9-4	0.633	0.0	95.9	53.7	22.4	10.1	4.8
WSH	8-5	0.631	3.5	88.1	45.7	18.6	8.6	4.1
BAL	8-5	0.604	18.1	94.0	45.9	20.7	9.3	3.7
HOU	8-5	0.538	97.0	97.6	39.4	15.3	5.8	2.0
TB	6-6	0.565	54.3	61.5	25.6	10.1	3.6	1.5
SEA	7-5	0.514	44.5	47.7	17.6	6.2	1.9	0.7
ARI	6-6	0.514	38.0	39.1	14.3	5.0	1.5	0.6
ATL	6-6	0.435	44.7	47.2	13.9	3.9	1.0	0.3
IND	6-7	0.438	2.9	19.0	5.8	1.7	0.5	0.1
LAR	6-6	0.431	15.5	16.2	4.7	1.3	0.3	0.1
MIA	5-7	0.429	-	6.1	1.8	0.5	0.2	0.0
SF	5-7	0.453	2.0	2.6	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0
NO	4-8	0.491	1.0	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
CIN	4-8	0.492	-	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
DAL	5-7	0.346	0.0	0.7	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-8	0.502	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
TEN	3-9	0.308	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	3-9	0.410	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	3-9	0.269	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CLE	3-9	0.332	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	3-10	0.326	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	2-10	0.312	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	2-10	0.310	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-10	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 13, Final

2024-12-03T22:00:00.010-06:00

Detroit over Buffalo

Denver beat Cleveland on Monday night, which fully eliminated Jacksonville. That's because it will take a minimum of 8 wins to make the AFC playoffs now, and Jacksonville has 10 losses already.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	11-1	0.761	85.2	100.0	91.1	60.1	38.7	24.4
BUF	10-2	0.711	++	++	82.7	50.0	30.1	15.8
PHI	10-2	0.683	96.5	100.0	66.4	39.0	18.6	10.0
MIN	10-2	0.651	12.3	99.7	66.1	31.4	14.3	7.1
LAC	8-4	0.659	8.3	97.0	55.2	28.6	14.7	6.9
PIT	9-3	0.639	81.9	99.5	56.8	28.9	14.0	6.2
KC	11-1	0.606	90.8	++	67.3	32.5	14.3	5.9
GB	9-3	0.640	2.5	97.3	57.0	25.1	11.5	5.6
DEN	8-5	0.644	1.0	86.0	44.9	21.8	11.0	5.0
WSH	8-5	0.631	3.5	87.8	43.9	18.3	8.5	4.1
BAL	8-5	0.604	18.1	94.0	45.9	20.7	9.3	3.8
HOU	8-5	0.538	97.0	97.6	39.4	15.3	5.8	2.0
TB	6-6	0.565	54.3	61.3	25.0	9.8	3.6	1.5
SEA	7-5	0.514	44.3	46.9	17.0	5.9	1.9	0.7
ARI	6-6	0.514	38.1	39.1	14.1	4.9	1.6	0.6
ATL	6-6	0.435	44.7	47.1	13.6	3.8	1.0	0.3
IND	6-7	0.438	2.9	19.0	5.8	1.7	0.5	0.1
LAR	6-6	0.431	15.6	16.2	4.6	1.3	0.3	0.1
MIA	5-7	0.429	-	6.1	1.8	0.5	0.2	0.0
SF	5-7	0.454	2.0	2.6	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0
NO	4-8	0.491	1.0	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
CIN	4-8	0.492	-	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
DAL	5-7	0.346	0.0	0.7	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-8	0.502	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
TEN	3-9	0.308	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	3-9	0.410	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CLE	3-9	0.332	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	3-9	0.269	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	3-10	0.326	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	2-10	0.312	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	2-10	0.310	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-10	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 13, Sunday

2024-12-02T22:00:00.012-06:00

Detroit over Buffalo

Buffalo has now officially joined the playoff party as a division winner, while New England eliminated themselves with a loss. Since Buffalo clinched, Miami and the New York Jets are also eliminated from winning a division. I also show Cincinnati unable to win their division, but I haven't quite run through all the scenarios. It does look like their best case is a 3-way tie with Pittsburgh and Baltimore, though.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	11-1	0.761	85.21	100.00	91.13	60.07	38.73	24.42
BUF	10-2	0.711	++	++	83.10	50.54	30.51	15.98
PHI	10-2	0.683	96.47	99.99	66.35	39.04	18.62	10.00
MIN	10-2	0.650	12.32	99.67	66.06	31.40	14.26	7.14
LAC	8-4	0.659	8.44	97.27	55.64	28.89	14.93	6.95
PIT	9-3	0.639	81.85	99.54	57.19	29.21	14.23	6.32
KC	11-1	0.606	90.85	++	67.94	33.02	14.53	5.97
GB	9-3	0.640	2.46	97.33	56.99	25.09	11.45	5.61
DEN	7-5	0.634	0.71	80.69	40.97	19.40	9.64	4.23
WSH	8-5	0.631	3.53	87.81	43.87	18.27	8.50	4.09
BAL	8-5	0.604	18.14	94.50	46.30	20.91	9.46	3.86
HOU	8-5	0.538	96.95	97.67	39.65	15.40	5.88	2.04
TB	6-6	0.565	54.30	61.26	24.99	9.80	3.58	1.48
SEA	7-5	0.514	44.30	46.86	17.03	5.92	1.87	0.68
ARI	6-6	0.514	38.07	39.11	14.07	4.91	1.56	0.57
ATL	6-6	0.435	44.72	47.09	13.56	3.83	0.98	0.29
IND	6-7	0.438	2.97	21.85	6.69	1.92	0.60	0.16
LAR	6-6	0.431	15.60	16.22	4.60	1.28	0.32	0.09
MIA	5-7	0.429	-	7.24	2.12	0.59	0.18	0.05
SF	5-7	0.454	2.03	2.61	0.77	0.22	0.06	0.02
NO	4-8	0.491	0.96	1.30	0.42	0.13	0.04	0.01
CIN	4-8	0.492	-	1.00	0.35	0.11	0.04	0.01
DAL	5-7	0.346	0.00	0.68	0.14	0.02	0.01	0.00
CHI	4-8	0.502	-	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
CLE	3-8	0.340	0.00	0.10	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00
TEN	3-9	0.308	0.09	0.12	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00
NYJ	3-9	0.410	-	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
CAR	3-9	0.269	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
JAX	2-10	0.312	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NE	3-10	0.326	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	2-10	0.311	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-10	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 13, Friday

2024-11-30T22:00:00.021-06:00

Detroit over Buffalo

Kansas City is having a magical season, at least in terms of falling into victories in games they easily could lose. They even got the first playoff clinch, while simultaneously eliminating Las Vegas. another testament to their outlier status is that I'm pretty sure the first clincher hasn't ever done so from my 5th place position before.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	11-1	0.761	87.5	100.0	93.1	62.4	40.8	26.5
BUF	9-2	0.674	100.0	100.0	75.7	43.1	24.4	11.8
PHI	9-2	0.672	96.2	99.9	65.9	38.8	18.0	9.8
MIN	9-2	0.648	9.8	98.4	64.8	30.8	14.1	7.3
KC	11-1	0.606	93.1	++	73.8	36.4	16.9	7.0
LAC	7-4	0.647	6.2	95.7	53.2	27.8	14.5	6.6
PIT	8-3	0.637	66.6	98.0	56.1	29.1	14.8	6.6
GB	9-3	0.640	2.7	97.3	59.4	26.5	12.2	6.2
DEN	7-5	0.634	0.7	82.8	42.8	21.5	10.9	4.8
BAL	8-4	0.609	33.3	97.6	50.1	23.9	11.4	4.7
WSH	7-5	0.596	3.8	77.5	36.4	13.9	6.0	2.8
HOU	7-5	0.532	94.7	95.5	38.7	15.3	6.0	2.1
TB	5-6	0.559	37.5	49.5	20.3	7.8	2.9	1.2
ARI	6-5	0.516	51.1	53.8	20.0	7.2	2.3	0.9
SEA	6-5	0.504	34.4	37.8	13.7	4.7	1.5	0.6
ATL	6-5	0.445	58.6	61.6	18.8	5.6	1.5	0.5
IND	5-7	0.435	4.2	16.8	5.2	1.6	0.5	0.1
SF	5-6	0.500	5.7	7.4	2.5	0.8	0.3	0.1
NO	4-7	0.504	3.8	6.3	2.2	0.7	0.2	0.1
CIN	4-7	0.502	0.1	4.5	1.7	0.6	0.2	0.1
MIA	5-7	0.429	0.0	7.7	2.3	0.7	0.2	0.1
LAR	5-6	0.420	8.8	9.4	2.6	0.7	0.2	0.1
TEN	3-8	0.341	0.8	1.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
DAL	5-7	0.346	0.0	1.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	3-8	0.419	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-8	0.502	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
JAX	2-9	0.321	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CLE	3-8	0.341	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	3-8	0.279	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	3-9	0.327	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
LV	2-10	0.311	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-10	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-