Tennessee Valley Weather

Bust

2012-02-24T06:20:00.000-06:00

Okay, so obviously we had no severe weather issues last night. The cold front has moved through most of the area with no fireworks. Thunderstorms moving through Marshall and Dekalb counties but not severe. I'm not going to complain too much about my busted forecast though, because it sure beats the kind of crap we've dealt with over the past year with more than our fair share of severe weather

Update

2012-02-24T01:23:00.000-06:00

All right, so we have temperatures around 70 and dewpoints around 60 here at 1:18 a.m. Yet still nothing has happened. The cold front is nearly into northwest Alabama now, and it looks like time has run out for those folks and most of middle Tennessee. However, northeast parts of the Tennessee Valley may still see a severe storm or two during the next couple hours. If nothing is happening by 3

A Few Severe Storms Possible Overnight

2012-02-23T20:49:00.001-06:00

FORECAST: Friday: Gradual clearing. Cooler. High 56, Low 49 Saturday: Sunny. Cool. High 53, Low 32 Sunday: Mostly sunny. Mild. High 58, Low 31 EXTENDED OUTLOOK: Monday: Partly cloudy. High 60, Low 40 Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. High 66, Low 45 Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of thunderstorms. High 71, Low 53 Thursday: Partly sunny. High 60, Low 47

Quick Note

2012-02-23T15:17:00.000-06:00

Wow. Temperatures way higher than forecast, even up to 82 now in the Shoals! About 77 in Huntsville. Getting warm up in Tennessee too. The only way I could see us not having a significant round of severe weather (including tornadoes - noting the wind shear, instability, energy helicity index, and significant tornado parameter projections) would be if the cap somehow stayed in place. And I guess

Update on Severe Potential

2012-02-23T13:57:00.000-06:00

All right, so the Storm Prediction Center has shifted the risk for severe thunderstorms more to our north, mostly into Kentucky and parts of Tennessee. They have more of the tornado threat, according SPC guidance, while our threats are mainly damaging winds and large hail, with an outside chance of an isolated tornado somewhere. Here's the map just for tornado probabilities. And while the 5%

A Look At Significant Tornado Parameter Values

2012-02-23T05:55:00.000-06:00

All right. now this is somewhat similar to what Dr. Greg Forbes does at the Weather Channel and calls "TORCON," except that when I met Dr. Forbes here last year, he explained in his lecture that TORCON was his own gig, and he based it on several parameters to represent his personal opinion on how great the tornado threat is over an area. However, this scale of 1 to 10 is universal. I'm going to

Severe Weather a Definite Possibility Tomorrow Evening/Overnight

2012-02-22T21:38:00.000-06:00

FORECAST: Thursday: Increasing clouds, gusty winds, warm and humid, with severe thunderstorms becoming likely by evening and lasting well into the overnight hours - some tornadoes will also be possible. High 73, Low 53 Friday: Gradually decreasing clouds. High 57, Low 48 Saturday: Sunny. Cool. High 53, Low 32 EXTENDED OUTLOOK: Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 60, Low 32 Monday: Partly cloudy with

No Severe Storms For the Moment

2012-02-22T18:35:00.000-06:00

Both the storms - Lawrence County and in Jackson County - have weakened below severe limits. SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 631 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012 ALC079-230041- /O.CAN.KHUN.SV.W.0013.000000T0000Z-120223T0045Z/ LAWRENCE AL- 631 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012 ...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IS CANCELED... WEATHER SERVICE

Severe T-Storm Warning Lawrence Co.

2012-02-22T18:11:00.003-06:00

Both of these storms are trying to rotate a little bit. Main threat is still damaging winds and large hail, but it certainly would not hurt to go to your tornado shelter as a course of least regret. At minimum you want to be inside a sturdy structure away from windows. Storm is headed toward Speake and Bankhead Forest . . . I would get into an interior room/hallway on the lowest floor of

Severe T-Storm Warning

2012-02-22T18:04:00.001-06:00

Definitely take shelter - this storm is trying to rotate. Had an unconfirmed report of a wall cloud as it passed over Memorial Parkway/Airport Road in Huntsville. Probably main threat is hail and straight line winds, but can't rule out this thing is trying to spin up a tornado. Either way, just get to your shelter: Sturdy structure - no mobile homes. Away from windows Lowest floor Small room

Severe T-Storm Warning

2012-02-22T17:39:00.006-06:00

Limestone County fire/rescue reports nickle-sized hail near Madison. WAFF-48 showing a possible shelf cloud (which would mean damaging winds) on their skycam - http://twitpic.com/8nehi5 Getting numerous reports of hail up to nickel size in northwest Madison County now - via Jason Simpson on Twitter. At 5:57 p.m. Spotter Network, Inc. on Twitter reporting a rotating wall cloud near Airport/

Tornado Safety Review (Severe Weather Awareness Week)

2012-02-22T15:32:00.000-06:00

Since we have a severe thunderstorm threat and a marginal tornado threat today during the time I'd usually be trying to write a forecast, just decided no forecast tonight - we still have a more widespread threat of severe thunderstorms tomorrow night - and I'll just leave it at that by now. Within the next hour, I'd expect to see some strong to severe thunderstorms try to fire up, and we may go

Update on Severe Potential

2012-02-22T07:35:00.000-06:00

All right, so the Storm Prediction Center had ramped up our severe weather risk a little bit for today for North Alabama/Southern Middle Tennessee. The main time frame is late this afternoon, probably starting around 2-3 p.m. and ending around 7-8 p.m. is a good estimate. During that time we have a threat for thunderstorms developing with mainly a potential for large hail and damaging winds,

About To Turn Stormy

2012-02-21T17:12:00.000-06:00

FORECAST: Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of (strong?) thunderstorms. Breezy. High 69, Low 41 Thursday: Gusty winds. Increasing clouds with thunderstorms likely by evening and perhaps lasting well into the overnight hours - some possibly severe. High 74, Low 56 Friday: Decreasing clouds. Cooler. High 53, Low 49 EXTENDED OUTLOOK: Saturday: Sunny. High 52, Low 32 Sunday: Sunny.

Really Nice Day Tomorrow

2012-02-19T18:01:00.001-06:00

FORECAST: President's Day: Sunny. Mild. High 59, Low 29 Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. Breezy. High 63, Low 39 Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Outside chance of a shower. High 66, Low 44 EXTENDED OUTLOOK: Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers. High 67, Low 48 Friday: Gradually decreasing clouds. Somewhat cooler. High 60, Low 49 Saturday: Sunny. Cool. High 52,

Rain . . . Falls on Everyone . . . The Same Old . . . Rain . . .

2012-02-18T19:52:00.000-06:00

FORECAST: Sunday: A dreary rain - mixing with snow flurries by night - accumulations not expected. High 46, Low 44 George Washington's Birthday: Sunny. Cool. High 55, Low 30 Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. Warmer. High 60, Low 39 EXTENDED OUTLOOK: Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. High 64, Low 45 Thursday: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers

Mostly Just Rain

2012-02-13T21:55:00.002-06:00

The winter advisory has been cancelled. Sure, we could have some light sleet or snow try to mix in with the rain, but at this point, no accumulations expected at all . . . looks like it will stay too warm. Yipee. Yay. Can't give you an all clear on crazy drivers, now, or ever . . . but we knew that going in. (Haha.)

Winter Weather Advisory

2012-02-13T15:58:00.000-06:00

And just keep in mind, a lot of people around here still drive at full speed when the roads are icy . . . those folks are your main hazard, not so much the ice itself. Take it easy driving and watch for the nincompoops. Or if possible, stay off the roads while they may be a little slick. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 336 PM CST MON FEB 13 2012 ...

Light Wintry Mix Tomorrow Night

2012-02-12T19:24:00.000-06:00

FORECAST: Monday: Partly cloudy - a light wintry mix possible by evening. High 40, Low 20 Overnight: Snow and sleet for at least a few hours before and after midnight - if we do see accumulations, they'll likely be half an inch or less. Low 30 Tuesday: Wintry precipitation ending and changing over to just a dreary rain during the morning and lasting through at least early afternoon. High 50

It's Coooold Out There . . .

2012-02-12T01:18:00.000-06:00

FORECAST: Sunday: Sunny. Cool. High 40, Low 17 Monday: Partly cloudy. High 49, Low 21 (Light wintry mix likely overnight, but accumulations not expected.) Tuesday: Rain showers likely, mainly in the morning. High 51, Low 33 EXTENDED OUTLOOK: Wednesday: Partly sunny. High 57, Low 34 Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers. High 60, Low 41 Friday: Mostly sunny. High 55,

And Yet Another Note

2012-02-11T17:16:00.000-06:00

Well, some things in life . . . many things actually . . . are really horrible . . . and equally apparently impossible to do anything about to make a difference one way or the other. So . . . just as I'm going to try to hit the books again tonight, will try to get a forecast done tonight too. Looks like some interesting weather coming up . . . not very interesting to me, but interesting to

Another Note

2012-02-10T22:54:00.000-06:00

The forecast I posted Wednesday is obsolete and essentially worthless now. We're still in a pretty "active" pattern, and you really have to do a forecast at least once per day to nail this stuff down. And I just do not have the energy right now. Aside from the resources you can link to from this site, just go ahead and consider it worthless until further notice. No rest for the wicked I guess .

Note

2012-02-09T12:43:00.000-06:00

Sorry, anybody who follows regularly . . . terrible mistake in last night's forecast . . . I somehow put "mostly sunny" for tomorrow, should have mentioned showers, esp. tomorrow night. Most of it should be liquid, if not all of it, think temperatures will stay above freezing while the precipitation is happening. Right now my brain is no good for weather forecasting, and I'll just leave it at

Turning Cooler This Weekend

2012-02-08T22:25:00.000-06:00

FORECAST: Thursday: Sunny. Cool. High 50, Low 30 Friday: Mostly sunny. Cool. High 55, Low 32 Saturday: Mostly sunny. Colder. High 45, Low 33 EXTENDED OUTLOOK: Sunday: Sunny. High 45, Low 24 Monday: Mostly sunny. High 49, Low 28 Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. High 56, Low 34 Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers/thunderstorms. High 63, Low 44

Really Nice Week

2012-02-06T18:29:00.000-06:00

FORECAST: Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 59, Low 34 Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 55, Low 37 Thursday: Sunny. Cool. High 53, Low 32 EXTENDED OUTLOOK: Friday: Mostly sunny. High 50, Low 30 Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 46, Low 25 Sunday: Sunny. High 46, Low 23 Monday: Mostly sunny. High 50, Low 26 NOTES: The fine folks at our local National Weather Service have put together a nice