A bold interview published by Times, with a very bold title (but I think misleading in a way) :

Ousted Thai leader Thaksin Shinawatra calls for ‘shining’ new age after King’s death

[...] Tomorrow [tuesday] he is due to arrive in Cambodia on a visit that has caused an intense diplomatic row between the two countries. [...]

Mr Thaksin’s remarks about the Thai monarchy are further evidence that, three years after being forced out as the democratically elected Prime Minister in a military coup, he is still contemplating a political future in Thailand. They also suggest that he is placing his hopes in the man likely to succeed to the country’s throne: the Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn.

“He’s not the king yet. He may not be shining [now],” Mr Thaksin told The Times in an interview from Dubai. “But after he becomes the King I’m confident he can be shining . . . it’s not his time yet. But when the time comes I think he will be able to perform.” [...]

“The Crown Prince may not be as popular as His Majesty the King,” Mr Thaksin said. “However, he will have less problem because the palace circle will be smaller . . . He had education abroad and he’s young. I think he understands the modern world.

“When the world is changing every organisation must adapt to the changing environment. When you are born as a baby your heart is very small [but] you cannot keep the baby heart in an adult body . . . Every institution, not just the royal institution, is the same — it must be adapted.”

Poor Abhisit. Nightmares are likely to continue to haunt his nights… !

As for Thaksin, this is really bold material.

Anyway… Let’s wait tuesday. If really Thaksin is about to land in Cambodia… the blow would be enormous for Abhisit… Like a very bad poker player, he bluffed with no cards in his hand… Toying with words (saying that Thailand would ask for Thaksin’s extradition, cutting diplomatics ties etc.)… He is trapped inside the trap he designed himself…

What is he going to do ?

The drama is unfolding.

The popularity rating of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva tripled after his decisive action of downgrading diplomatic ties with Cambodia, according to an Abac Poll survey released yesterday.
[...]
Factors attributing to the rise in popularity include the sentiment against Cambodia’s attack on the Thai judicial system and concern over the consequences of the Cambodians’ appointment of fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra as an adviser. (Nation)

Mission accomplished ! Dirty Abhisit has won the day. Congratulations to him. I won’t comment more on this inane “let’s cut diplomatic ties with Cambodia” hysteria… It makes me sick.

Just 2 things :

-Abhisit is not ashamed to use a very cheap propaganda trick, in order to deflect attention from real problems and real issues. It’s the eternal “scapegoat” principle, mixed with the good old : “let’s go after foreigners”. Unfortunatly, It works very well.

-I don’t even think they had to manipulate the survey results. Thai people are, on this subject, totally stupid and brainwashed. Like europeans people were stupid and brainwashed in 1914. Those damned french, german who were so happy to go to war against each others, destroying their -common- civilization… Totally consumed by nationalism evil.

Anyway. The bottom line is : you can’t have any more doubt about Abhisit.

He’s just despicable.

Like all his peers (thai and combodian as well).

BoT pushes liberalisation under new plan, writes Bangkok Post.

As any normal human being, you would feel excited. So you decide to continue to read. And gradually, you feel baffled and eventually you end up in tears. That’s the beauty of Thailand : a perpetual source of exercise for our zygomatic muscles.

Ready ?

Thailand’s new financial master plan will offer greater opportunities for foreign banks, says Bank of Thailand governor Tarisa Watanagase. [...] The central bank’s second financial-sector master plan would gradually liberalise the sector from 2010-14. [...]

From 2012-13, the central bank will allow greater competition within the sector, starting by allowing foreign banks to open up to two branches in addition to their head offices.

Do you know, as of september, what is the total number of branches of commercial banks in Thailand ?

5 673.

I repeat : 5 673

I know, the proper word is : “surreal”.

(source BOT, FI_CB_060_S2)

So after giving a huge, astronomical boost to foreign banks (allowing them to open 2 more branches)… then come the final blow :

The central bank has no plans to offer new universal banking licences, seeing the current 15 banks as enough for the country’s needs.

Voila. The words “competition” and “liberalisation” in Tarisa’s mouth mean : “we don’t need more banks”.

Surreal. Just surreal. But so tasty. Viva Tarisa !

PS : since I study Thailand, there is one great mystery I was unable to solve : do they really believe the non-sensical words coming out of their mouth… Or do they really think that foreigners are totally and definitely stupid ? To this day, I’m still wondering…

It would be hilarious if it wasn’t tragic.

I didn’t blog before about the state campaign against “rumors mongers” in the case of the King’s health and a (tiny) drop of the stock market in october. Two people have been arrested last week.

I was thinking (fool)… “oh well , another non-event in Lalaland”… But this story takes amazing proportions, even by thai standards.

And the police seems totally out of control… It’s a self reinforcing hysteria.

Look at the latest news :

The owner of a snooker bar in Chon Buri who allegedly posted unverified assertions that led to a stock market plunge last week is the link who will lead to the arrest of those behind rumour-mongering and their accomplices, a senior police officer said yesterday. (Nation)

What started as a gross manipulation about a perfectly non-existent manipulation (of the stock market), driven only by a cheap political agenda (to intimidate the opposition, to close a few thai websites and create a red herring for the masses), has become an hilarious saga.

And some officials are even talking about going after Bloomberg (read here) !

I mean… what’s next ? Are they going to arrest a maid, a taxi driver, a farmer, a hooker ? “Rumors mongers” and “national security”… it’s just amazing !

Day after day Thailand ridicules itself, deeper, higher, stronger.

And we shall notice the striking silence of our dear Abhisit, the dashing and so called Oxford-Educated-Prime-Minister-Obama-Style.

What does he think about this story ? Is he laughing ? Crying ? Does he approve ? Is he the initiator ? A mere supporter ? Or does have his hands tied behind his back ?

Where is the “democracy” lover ? The defender of the “rule of the law” ? The politician who was defeated at every elections and who became PM in december thanks to a bozo coup ? The politican who gives lessons ?

Abhisit is just pathetic. A pathetic clown, hostage and accomplice as well of a system that has turned hysterical and paranoid, in a strench of fin de regne.

Abhisit ? Yes We Can’t.

More than ever.

Even ThaiCrisis has been fooled ! I use the infamous word “Green Shoots” after the first publication of the total amount of exports for september.

Abhisit was proud to pronounce the “R” word. Recession ? Amid an ocean of artificial pleasures (and potent Lala drugs) during the Asean Meeting, it was more like “Recovery”. Same for the so called Commerce Minister. And of course, the stupid journalists answered “sir yes sir” (and I put Bloomberg in the same basket as Bangkok Post and Nation).

First the headline :

-exports reached 503 billions THB in september, against 448 billions in august. Year on year (compared to september 2008), it’s a decrease of 8,4 %. Far better than the -16 % recorded in august.

Source Bank Of Thailand.

But as usual, we need to look at the details…

What caused this surge in september, compared to the previous month ? The car industry ? The IT industry ? Agriculture ? Such factors would without any doubt fuel the “recovery” theory. Right ?

But what do we see instead ?

A surge of the category… “Pearl, Precious Stone and Jewelry”. Yep ladies and gentlemen, a surge of 45 % in one month… And an increase of 55 % compared to september 2008. Talk about a wild Green Shoot !

Here we go again… Exactly like what happened last february… Someone is sucking out gold from Thailand, and Thailand is eager to please.

Now ask yourself : is it healthy ? Can we like the clowns at the government talk about “recovery” ?

Does the fact of selling gold creates… any jobs ?

Attracted by high gold prices and probably because they badly need cash.. thai people are selling their gold. And then this gold is exported. Is it healthy ? Other people in the world (China)… are buying gold. Who do you think are the smartest ?

Abhisit can turn 99 times the (golden) spoon in the rice bowl and throw away some incantations (“recovery”, “recovery”) we are not out of the wood yet.

I repeat : not yet.

The recovery could come… but the facts remain stubborn : not yet.

At last ! A Green Shoot…

And, obviously -8,5 % in september (year on year) is better than the -25 % we had in july.

The Commerce Ministry has released the first data for exports in september : 14,99 billions USD.

Imports fell 17,9 % at 12,92 billions USD.

The Bank Of Thailand will publish the details on october 31.

A classic comment (from an economist in Singapore), in line with the doxa.

When base effects kick in in November, we will probably see stronger headline numbers. Exports will continue to get better. (Forbes)

Base effect… In november last year exports in value dropped like a stone. Therefore, the % of difference with november 2009 is likely to be less “uggly”.

Thai Airways International, Thailand’s largest airline, plans to issue shares next year to raise funds for repaying short-term debt, its newly appointed president said on Monday.

Piyasvasti Amranand did not say how much money the flag carrier will raise. But 29 billion baht ($869 million) of debt matures next year, he added.

Kosin Sripaiboon, a senior analyst with UOB Kay Hian Securities, said he expected Thai Airways to raise almost 20 billion baht ($600 million), or issue 800 million new shares, half of its current registered capital of 1.7 billion shares.

The carrier has a total debt of 160 billion baht [4,8 billions USD]

“We need to raise capital because we have a lot of short-term debt to be repaid,” Piyasvasti said.

“We are also trying to convert our short-term debt to longer maturities. As the long-term debt has a maturity of six years, that doesn’t match our funding for plane procurements,” he told reporters on the first day of his top job. (Reuters)

Let me translate what the new president seems to have discovered on his first day on the job : Thai Airways is broke. Speak about a discovery !

Let’s review the titles of some of my articles about the national carrier.

-Thai Airways : “The situation has deteriorated from bad to worse “...
-Thai Airways : is there any captain on (the) board ?
-If… if… if and if… Thai Airways will return to profits
-No cash to pay new airplanes, airports closure, economic downturn… Thai Airways is crashing
-Peter Principle : desperate Thai Airways relies on… government officials to fill its aircrafts and seeks 1 billion USD
-Thai Airways : tales of the daily corruption

You have an image coming to your mind ? Yes, you’re right : a crashing airplane.

Sure… we could blame the high oil prices in 2008… the political crisis… the flu… then the recession… then the extraterrestrials, etc. This is exactly what the new president is doing.

Long gone are the days when Thai Airways was so terribly exotic… when tourism increased every year… when the reputation of the airline was a rising star…

Those externals factors had a cruel effect : they expose the company, naked, in front of the whole world. It’s impossible to lie anymore, to hide behind a reputation and a never ending tourism growth. The party is over. Now it’s time to pay, and the smart money is unlikely to answer the call.

Thai Airways is a public company (the thai government is the first shareholder), baddly managed, indebted, overstaffed, with an old fleet, acting like a reservoir of privileges for many lunatics in unform (the cousin, the maid, the mia noi of General X, colonel Y etc.), frozen in time, rapped and abused over and over by politicians, and unions too.

A perfect cas d’ecole. A negative show case.

So who is going to buy this generous offer ? Shares from Thai Airways ? To invest now in an airline, and in Thai Airways, would be just suicidal.

The thai government ? Broke too.

And what about dilution ?

But eventually, of course, someone will pay : the thai people.

End of september, end of the fiscal year for the thai government. Data have been updated on the website of the Finance Ministry.

Result ?

Total revenues (gross) : 1 674 billions THB, -8,8 % compared to the previous fiscal year (october 2007 to september 2008)
Corporation taxes : -14,8 % (392 billions THB)
Personal income taxes : -3,5 % (197 billions THB)
VAT : -10,8 % (at 343 billions THB)

And we are talking in current THB… So factor in inflation plus the several “stimulus” packages… that’s weak.

What about september alone ?

The VAT is at -10 % compared to september 2008. That’s better than august (-16 %). Corporation taxes take a hit at -82 % (128 billions THB).

Corporation taxes should remain under pressure.

First official reaction from the royal family.

Majesty the King’s health condition is no longer worrying, said his daughter HRH Princess Chulabhorn Walailak

“Now there is nothing to worry about his heart conditions and lung infections,” she told officials at Thai embassy in Germany during her visit there. (Nation)

It’s like an impressionist painting… Little by little, we get more details.

And It’s really surprising that no one seems to notice… the “heart conditions” !

It’s astonishing. 27 official statements were issued since the hospitalization… and they never talked about “heart conditions“.

The King is hospitalized since september 19. One month already.

However, there is a new detail with the 27th statement…

The Committee of Royal Physicians reported that His Majesty the King had a little fever from time to time. (PRD)

UPDATE

28th statement… and the fear is back.

His Majesty the King’s doctors administered a new dosage of antibiotics after his lungs were found still to be inflamed, the Royal Household Bureau said in a statement released last night.

His Majesty’s fever, however, had lessened and he could sleep well and had regained his appetite, the bureau said in its 28th statement since the King was admitted to Siriraj Hospital with a high fever and inflamed lungs on September 19. (Nation)

That’s -at least- the second time that the fever is coming back and therefore the antiobiotics (after being stopped, apparently).

Though His Majesty’s lung infection is clearing up, complete recovery will still take a while, the 25th Royal Household Bureau statement said yesterday.

The statement explained that older people usually take longer to recover, adding that royal physicians have asked His Majesty to remain at Siriraj Hospital so the continued medication and rehabilitation can ensure recuperation. (Nation)

After toying with the nerves -and basic common sense- of the whole thai population for almost A MONTH (the King was hospitalized on september 19)… after using ridiculous “permutations” to write the official statements (using the words “food”, “sleep”, “better”, “x-ray”, “intravenous fluids” and then just changing the order of those words within the statements)… after playing seek and hide with basic medecine concepts… after playing with words (infection becomes “inflamation” etc)… the people in charge of the PR, eventually, understood that something was seriously wrong and that the frontier between “controled communication” and outrage was  thin.

So the 25th statement represents a shift.

-It’s the first time the statement speaks about the future : “complete recovery will take time”. It’s obvious but it’s good to write it.

-it’s the first time the statement speaks about the King as an “old man”. I mean : a man.

Sounds like small details. But it’s important.

Last but not least, after saying that antiobiotics were stopped… the statement talks about “continued medication”… Which kind ?