The alert in june is confirmed.

The total land transactions nationwide reached 32,31 billions THB in july, following 32,69 billions in june. That’s a 28 % fall compared to july 2007 (june was down 42 % year-on-year).

We have to return to the end of the year 2002 to see 2 consecutive months with such low total amounts…

We have clearly broken the long term trend.

(source Bank Of Thailand, table EC_EI_009)

Shall I risk a forecast ? Well if there isn’t any turnaround with a picking up in august, then it will certainly look bad… A clear sign that the real estate market is suffering.

Look Chamlong ! Does he look like someone who has on his back an arrest warrant for treason ? Does he look like a rebel ? A fugitive, exhausted by months of fight against the gvt and one month of occupation of the gvt’s House ? Does he look scared of being arrested ? Afraid ?

Talk about luck ! Talk about good planetary positions (Jupiter is seriously teasing Pluto right now)… The Royal Thai Police have arrested a second PAD’s leaders… One month after arrest warrants were issued.

After Chaiwat friday at… at toll gate… they’ve nailed Chamlong sunday… at at polling station (elections of Bangkok’s governor) !

2 down, 7 to go.

Let’s study here a few hypothesis :

1-A dedicated and courageous officer has spotted Chamlong and decided to arrest him (he needed badly the promotion and an increase of salary).

2-Chamlong is stupid : he forgot that an arrest warrant was issued against him and that his friend was arrested 2 days ago.

3-Chamlong is overconfident : of course nobody believe that PAD’s leaders stayed non stop in the Government’s House. They were allowed to come and go, free. So Chamlong thought, why not going to vote today ?

4-Chamlong was framed. He asked an authorization to go to vote, “someone” gave it to him, and then he was nailed.

5-Chamlong is playing. He wanted to be arrested. Sondhi, other PAD’s leaders said : “Chamlong Srimuang sacrificed himself so that the people could win in their fight for political reform“. (Nation)

6-the hardliners at the gvt try to derail the negotiations between PAD and the government. It seems to be the opinion of Chavalit, the gvt’s negociator : “talks with the anti-government PAD may have been sabotaged by ill-intentioned persons who wish them to fail, an aide to Chavalit said yesterday”. (Nation)

7-the PAD itself made it up, because they are loosing steam… so they need “sacrifice” to continue the fight.

8-It’s a vast comedy. PAD and gvt have reached an agreement, but to save face, they’ve designed a plan to stop the protest and to arrest the PAD’s leaders… before to release them quietly.

UPDATE

I think number 5, 6  and 7 are more and more plausibe…

“After his arrest he called us,” said Suriyasai Katasila, another PAD core member.
“He said there was no need to negotiate with the government now. He said the talks are no longer necessary and all protesters must remain within Government House.” (Nation)

The Finest in Tight Uniform have been “lucky” friday.

They’ve arrested Chaiwat Sinsuwong, one of PAD’s nine leaders wanted on treason charge. More than one month after the arrest warrants have been issued (read here) !

Talk about a striking efficiency… For the Royal Thai Police, it must be a like a world record.

And talk about luck : they nailed him at the expressway toll gate on Rama VI Road “shortly after he left the house of Democrat Party MP Kraisak Choonhavan”.

The world is so -conveniently- small…

Or maybe the MP called the police just before ? Or maybe it was  an “honest mistake” from a zealed officer ? Is the police going to bail him out… with polite excuses ?

Police yesterday arrested Chaiwat Sinsuwong, one of the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD)’s nine leaders, on a treason charge.

The PAD has been occupying Government House, the country’s official seat of power, since an August 26 siege.

Police said Chaiwat had been apprehended at 2.30pm at the expressway toll gate at Rama VI Road shortly after he left the house of Democrat Party MP Kraisak Choonhavan on Soi Rajakhru off Rama VI.

Kraisak is a key supporter of the PAD.

Police staked out the toll gate upon learning that Chaiwat had left Kraisak’s house. He was taken to the Border Patrol Police Region 1 Command in Pathum Thani’s Klong Luang district and detained.

Chalong Srimuang, another PAD leader, yesterday called an emergency meeting to discuss the arrest of Chaiwat. (Nation)

How the PAD is going to react ? Is it the beginning of the end for a movement that is loosing its steam or could this arrest refuel the protests ?

The Joke Of The Day Gold Medal goes to Chaiya, allegedly new Commerce Minister.

Ready ? Go.

Commerce Minister Chaiya points out that Thai export this year will experience merely a slight impact of 0.01% from the US financial crisis but believes that next year the sector will expand by 15 percent. (PRD)

So let’s see… 0,01 % hum… Even with a translation mistake, it’s still grotesque.

And + 15 %… next year

As I wrote here, thai exports are in serious danger. Chaiya doesn’t like it, sure, but his forecasts are totally ridiculous.

It’s not a US crisis anymore. It’s a global crisis . USA, Europe, Japan…

When your 3 biggest exports customers experience a recession or even a slowdown… even if your name is “Thailand La-la Land Chaiya”, there is no escape : you go down the drain too.

Anyway. That’s not important. What is important is that the alleged Commerce Minister has dropped, with an intense satisfaction, his little line : the bowel movement theory applied to the economy.

He can be proud.

Take away the stupid smile… the family principle returns with a vengeance.

Somchai is visiting Chiang Mai to take part in a merit making rite for the ancestors of the Shinawatra family at the Rongtham Samakkhi Temple in San Kamphaeng district. A lot of people waited for him at the temple.

“No matter how other people will view Thaksin, he is a good man to us and I am sure he is a good man,” Somchai said. (Nation)

Somchai is married to Thaksin’s sister.

Family love… it’s so touching.

Less than 2 weeks after being nominated… Public Health Minister (after being… Interior Minister)… Chalerm is back with a grand idea.

After, I know who were the New Year Bombers, after Let’s ban a TV channel, after Let’s ban websites for lese-majeste and after I’m not a gangster, I’am the chief of gangster, Chalerm is striking again… this time against alcohol ! A very bold move.

Public Health Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung Thursday unveiled his plan to ban the sale of alcohol beverage on public holidays.

Chalerm said he had assigned the Disease Control Department to consider invoking the Alcohol Beverage Control Act to issue a directive to ban the sale on public holidays, such as New Year Day, Songkran holidays and religious holidays. (Nation)

This guy is obviously a danger for himself (?) and the society.

Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index reports for september have been published (source Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices).

Growth of CPI (Consumer Price Index) reaches +6 % (year-on-year = compared to september 2007), against 6,4 % in august, and 9,2% in july.

(To understand the fall between july and august, you have to read this article… This drop is partly artificial.)

PPI (Producer Price Index) are still very high at +19,4 %. It means businesses are still facing pressures on their costs.

Now, I can hear the suckers : “You see 6% versus 6,4 %, inflation went down between august and september !”.

Nope. We have a decrease in % but… an increase in points (from 124,2 to 124,5). How come ? Base effect that’s all.

But of course the suckers (and the journalists) look only at the %, like the chinese proverb : When a finger points to the moon, the imbecile looks at the finger.

Here is a chart with both values.

So let’s summarize :

-the feel good operation from the government started end of july (free water, free electricity, tax cuts on diesel etc.). It will end in january.

-the powerful (and real) effect of the decrease of oil prices on the CPI… is already BEHIND us… It’s unlikely that oil prices will fall further… Therefore, we have already eated our white bred… This card won’t have an effect anymore on the CPI for the coming months.

-meanwhile, some prices will continue to raise, because the PPI are still very high (every month, companies have to give up the fight, and have to increase their own prices, they can’t postpone anymore). This will fuel the CPI for the coming months.

-looking at the details of the CPI report we see that “food and beverages” is up 15,7 % compared to september 2007 ! And up 1,7 % compared to august 2008. This inflation is broadly felt by the population, for obvious reasons… And reduces the purchasing power.

-but because of the base effect (comparison year-on-year), the % of change of the CPI could continue to go down (for instance with the same index reading at 124,5 points in october, the % of change would be +5,2 %).

-the only factor that could cool off the CPI seriously is a severe slowdown (exports for instance are going to slow down, that could fuel prices decreases). We’ll see.

-last point : let’s not forget the exchange rate issue… If the THB is going down versus USD and EUR, we are going to import inflation.

You don’t believe it ? Me neither.

But unfortunatly, it is true. I say unfortunatly for the country’s image (once again the world will laugh at Thailand and at their lunatics officials), but on the other hand it’s very fortunate for my (ballooning) collection of “weird” tidbits.

Local amulets in unusual shapes, like Nagas, phallus symbols and buffaloes, will soon hit souvenir stalls if newly-appointed Culture Minister Worawat Ua-apinyakul gets his way.

“They are cultural products,” Worawat said yesterday.

He unveiled his bold idea in a talk about the Culture Ministry’s 2009 policies.

“We can turn local amulets with phallus symbols and buffalo statuettes into key chains and sell them to tourists,” Worawat insisted.

Known as Palad Khik, the phallus-shaped amulets are believed to magically protect their wearers, while the “Kwai Tanoo” buffalo statuettes are said to give their owners the power to harm others.

Worawat hoped that manufacturers would provide certificates of authenticity to show their wares were properly made.

“The back stories behind the amulets could inspire big-budget movies too,” the new culture minister added.

Worawat reckoned that his idea was unprecedented but warned others not to view it with contempt.

Under his leadership, the Culture Ministry would actively invite income, investment and trade to Thailand via cultural ambassadors. (Nation)

What to say ? Nothing of course. These delicatessen are even better when savoured in silence …

Datas for exports and imports for august have been published (source BOT).

The trade balance (exports-imports, FOB and CIF) is till in the red in august, with a deficit of 675 millions USD, after a deficit of 762 millions in july.

Since january, the total deficit reaches 1,12 billion USD.

What’s next ? Well, logically, exports and imports are both going to slow, due to the global slowdown.

USA, Europe, Japan… the main customers of Thailand are slowing down. There is no way Thailand can escape the fallouts. No way.

The trade deficit should continue, unless the country start to cut seriously its oil consumption. Since the Alice in Wonderland plan from Samak’s government (tax cuts on diesel, postponement of LPG price increase and other feel good-pay later policies etc.) the consumption is artificially boosted.

It’s a very short sighted policy. The new government vows to continue on the same path… We’ll see.

The dusts of Samak’s bust and new government nomination are settling down… Back to business.

The new Prime Minister seems to have only one obsession : be granted a meeting with General Prem (Privy Council). National reconciliation ? We’ll see. And one week only after his nomination, he’s already under the threat of legal pursuits.

Therefore, everything is back to normal.

And the PPP is wakening its own burning obsession : to change the Constitution.

But it seems that they have modified their strategy to do so.

The Cabinet has decided to include the political reform as part of its policy statement and will push to amend the charter’s Article 291 in order to pave way for the formation of the Constitution Drafting Assembly (CDA) in charge of revamping the political system, PM’s Office Minister Sukhumpong Ngonkham said Tuesday (Nation).

Article 291 describes the process to amend the Constitution.

So, their plan is apparently to amend this article (and only this one)… then to create a CDA… in order to write a new constitution ! Before the plan was to amend only a few articles…

They want clearly to play again the card of “People’s Constitution”… like for the charter of 1997. A Constitution that served very well the PPP, TRT, Thaksin and his friends.

Back to square one.

The PAD is going of course to scream and protest against this idea.

Back to square one.

That’s the good point with thai politics : the more it changes, the less it changes (same same but different, you follow ?).