So what happened?

Over the previous few days the weather models had consistently hinted at the likelihood of Wednesday night’s game being rained out.  The teams could have made the game up tomorrow (Thursday) but since Ma Nature thinks it’s still January, this was likely not an option because of snow in the forecast.  This was likely making heads explode with those in charge of determining whether or not a game was to be played tonight.  For those of you who follow me on Twitter (@bennyc50), you know that I like to tweet about the forecast for the upcoming Twins game and others.  I tweeted multiple times today about how tricky the situation was going to be tonight with the timing of the precipitation and how difficult it would be to make the call to play.  As I tweeted earlier, I’m glad I wasn’t the person in charge today.

So what was so tricky?  Well the onset of rain was delayed compared to what the models had forecast earlier and with the possibility of the makeup game being snowed out tomorrow, the Twins decided to give it a go tonight.  Unfortunately the game was called (very close to game time) because rain had developed.  The Twins made the right choice tonight but could they have made the choice sooner for fans?

After the game was called, Dave St. Peter tweeted the models were forecasting the rain to hold off until 10pm.  He was right but, “Radar don’t lie” (unless ground clutter etc.).  This radar image was taken a little under 3 hours before game time.  The returns eventually grew stronger and filled in across the metro ultimately getting the tarp out and then the eventual postponing of the game.

Could the Twins have called the game sooner?  Sure.  What happens if the rain stays light, game could have been played, and now they have to fit this game in a couple months later because the snowstorm tomorrow wouldn’t allow them to make it up then?  I absolutely mean what I tweeted below.  I’m glad I’m not in charge of making these decisions.

Throw the towel or hear fans howl on twitter?

Additional thoughts from today (Thursday April 18th) as I watch it snow.

While it’s over and done with, it brings up some issues the MLB could address.

MLB needs to trust meteorologists more and not Joe Torre (or whoever) looking at a radar screen.  How many times have we seen a game played and then rained on because to begin with the radar was clear?  Guess what, precipitation develops and a meteorologist can help you out in this situation.  I know teams have good professional meteorologists employed. Meteorologists who know these things can happen but it seems like they aren’t being utilized enough or their information goes in one ear and out the other.

On top of that, if MLB did use the meteorologist’s skill and saw a rainout was probable, could they move the game to earlier in the day?  This one is tricky because the logistics of the fans are easier to accomodate in delays.  Understandably there would fans angry that the game is starting 3 hours earlier because unfortunately, that’s how long it takes them to get to the ballpark and they are screwed.  Then again, if MLB would trust the forecast, they could, in theory, get the notice out soon enough that an early start wouldn’t hurt those fans and if it did?  Give them their money back and play on anyway.  At least you get the game in on the day it was scheduled, avoiding roster shuffles and one game fly-ins later in the season.

Just me thinking out loud.  I thought the Twins ultimately did the right thing last night.  I’ll say it again, it was a very tricky situation with that rain/drizzle developing to the south.  In the end you know what it was?  The same damn thing that has plaugued Twins fans this entire month of April.  The schedule and weather not cooperating.  Just bad luck.

Oh and don’t blame Dave St. Peter for this, blame the weather.  I’m surprised he isn’t a raging drunk by now considering how many angry, ignorant tweets he gets and actually responds to. Some gripes are always expected but tip of the hat to him for answering all types.

You can follow me on twitter @bennyc50

The statue of Han Solo frozen in carbonite is meant to honor those fans who have frozen to death during recent Twins games.

Never Forget those who have frozen at games.

Here’s a look at the large-scale wind direction for most of the game in relation to the seating.  There’s plenty of stadium-scale swirls but I hope you’re not sitting in RF tomorrow.

33ish and windy on Monday.

Boy: “The men are saying we will not live out the night. They say it is hopeless. “

Aragorn: “There is always hope.”

There may be a few hidden Elves in the rotation this season but more likely to show up after this year.  I don’t think the rotation will live out the night but I guess there is always hope.

Hope. The quintessential human illusion.

Other predictions:

Mauer stays in the batting title contention all season and probably wins it.

Morneau returns to nearly MVP form and Twins are faced with angry fans at the trade deadline when he’s traded for prospects (if deal isn’t done).

There will be one or two newly acquired starting pitchers that will surprised people.

I’m sure you just love the responsible explanation of it being too far out to tell…”I want the truth!”  Well I can’t handle the truth a week out but I will offer you some things to chew on.  According to the Weather Channel, the average high is only 50 degrees on April 1st.  Yes, I also am wondering why they would even consider having a team open up the season at home when the average high is only around 50 degrees.  There also is a lot of snow left to be melted which will hold the temperatures down a little.  One thing on Target Field’s side is the fact it’s in an urban area with a lot of concrete that warms nicely in the April sun.  Same reason the snow melts off the roads so much faster in March.  The fact that the game is played during the day might make it feel a little more bearable as our bodies and blankets sit in the sun.  These are just a few things to think about that don’t involve a high temperature forecast.

However, then there’s another forecast model…my gut or GUT model.  This model is known for it’s negative bias.  When there’s a foot of snow forecast, it predicts a couple inches.  When severe thunderstorms are forecast, it expects light rain.  The GUT model’s forecast for April 1st has a couple things factoring into it.  1) The Twins last two seasons being vomit inducing and thus why would the weather want to cooperate.  2) It’s been a cold March and now there’s going to be a brief warmup as we head towards opening day and the weather is going to pull a “That’s Twins Baseball” on us.  The excitement of a new season (warmer weather) will be met with the reality of the new season (cold front comes through, pitching stinks) weather turns cooler and is a buzz kill. Just like the past two seasons…A fresh start met with pain.  Again, this is simply the GUT model speaking and one of the equations used is the trends of the past two seasons and also Denny Green “They are who we thought they were”.

Well there’s all that.  Here’s what my forecast is a week in advance.  Mostly based on a gut feeling so don’t take it as real science.  I’ll update this as we get closer and give you a real forecast (using science).

TTBB Forecast: 43 degrees and sunny.  Bring dark colored clothing and blankets to absorb the sun’s rays better and keep you warm.  Drink heavily (NOT CONDONING JUST SAYING) and don’t boo Mauer.

Oh and let’s go down to TTBB’s weekend meteorologist, Clubber Lang for his take….

Classic Clubber

Oh and as always, check out Bleacherweather.com and click the MLB tab for your ballpark’s forecast.  (shameless)

Note: I love Pat Neshek but he was the sacrificial lamb for the video because the flight path of the ball was perfect.

If you think about the 2013 season what were you expecting anyways?  A decent lineup but all along it’s the rotation dummy.  These trades aren’t for 2013 but they make the future of the rotation brighter and get a TTBB seal of approval.

That said, I’m going to miss watching Denard Span and Ben Revere as a fan.  A couple of great players who were fun to watch out in center field.  In the end, The Godfather said it best: “It’s not personal, strictly business.”

Happy Trails, fellas.

Ben riding his horse screaming to the NL EAST “The Twins CFs are coming!” One if by Span, two if by Revere.