The 52 Week Experiment

Advanced Battery Technologies - Slips By Resistance

noreply@blogger.com (scmfinance) — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 03:50:00 +0000

Advanced Battery Technologies (Nasdaq: ABAT) continued the steady climb today and slipped by the resistance at $3.00, reaching a high of day of $3.04 and closing the session at $3.03. In mid-2007 when ABAT broke through the resistance, the stock retraced slightly and consolidated before climbing to a high of $9.66 over the next few months. Volume rose significantly in the last hour of trading today, so ABAT may have enough momentum going into tomorrow's session to continue the upward trend rather than retrace as the stock did in mid-2007. Whether the stock goes up or down tomorrow, I remain strongly bullish on Advanced Battery Technologies over the long-term.

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American Capital - More Huge Gains

noreply@blogger.com (scmfinance) — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 03:35:00 +0000

Today American Capital (Nasdaq: ACAS) blew expectations out of the water. Going into the session, my expectations were that at best American Capital would test the 50MA before retracing. Not only did ACAS surge past the 50MA at $6.20 and reach a high of day of $7.39, but the stock closed strongly at $7.31 without giving back gains. I would offer analysis and say the stock is reaching overbought territory, but American Capital continues to leave my exit analysis in the dust. To those who have stayed with American Capital since $3 when I recommended it, I salute you.

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American Capital - Performed Better Than Expected

noreply@blogger.com (scmfinance) — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 04:23:00 +0000

American Capital (Nasdaq: ACAS) blew by the resistance at $4.00 reaching an intraday high of $5.39 and closing Monday's session at $5.20. American Capital closed up 73% from when the stock was recommended and up 88% from the 52-week low. Yesterday's chart setup looked great and ACAS performed even better than expected. Tomorrow, American Capital will likely open the session bullish, but given all of the bad economic news expected this week, I would recommend thinking hard about an exit point.

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American Capital - Bouncing

noreply@blogger.com (scmfinance) — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 04:25:00 +0000

After American Capital (Nasdaq: ACAS) appeared to nearly fall through yet another bottom, the stock has showed a bullish face over the last couple of days. American Capital reached a high of day of $3.84 and closed the session at $3.68. The MACD has shown positive divergence over the last couple of months and the ADX has sharply turned from indicating a sharply bearish trend to indicate a bullish trend. The 4MA has crossed the 9MA, and tomorrow, the 9MA will likely cross the 18MA, providing for a bullish triple moving average crossover. Resistance looks to be near $4.00, but tomorrow will tell whether ACAS has the momentum to continue.

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Rentech - Did Not Gap, But Broke Through Resistance

noreply@blogger.com (scmfinance) — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 04:15:00 +0000

Rentech (AMEX: RTK) did not gap above the resistance at $0.70 Wednesday morning as indicated to watch for. However, RTK did move through the resistance on Friday. Rentech reached a high of day of $0.78 and closed Friday's session strongly at $0.77. Rentech faces more resistance near $0.80 and into the $0.90s. At this point, the ship sailed and I am not looking to enter the stock tomorrow.

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Rentech - Looks Bullish If Gap Above Resistance Occurs

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Uranium Resources - Broke Through Resistance, But White Spinning Top Indicates Indecision

noreply@blogger.com (scmfinance) — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 03:20:00 +0000

Uranium Resources (Nasdaq: URRE) moved past the resistance at $0.70 as well as the resistance at $0.80. Reaching a high of $0.91 in Friday's trading session, URRE closed at $0.84. Uranium Resources faces more resistance near $1.00, although the white spinning top indicates it may not test the resistance this run again. The stock was recommended near $0.50, so taking profits is not a terrible idea at this point.

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Weekend Edition

noreply@blogger.com (scmfinance) — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 22:40:00 +0000

Welcome to Weekend Edition where the broader blogosphere submits savy investment articles for financial fiends looking for a fix before the markets open Monday.

Taking a few minutes at the end of each year to think about what went wrong and why is as important as celebrating what went right. But rather than reflect upon a year that was dismal and depressing financially for many, the focus of this week's edition will be on the New Year -- 2009.

Most of us will begin the year stabilizing our personal finances and investments. For some it will be as simple as clogging a checkbook that sprung a leak (Out Of Debt Christian) or learning to live on 70% of their income (The Money Blog). Or perhaps finding a new online discount broker (Money Blue Book) and the best online savings account (Money Smart Life). For others buried underneath a mortgage and asking themselves "Now What?", it will be far more painful financially and emotionally (The Political and Financial Markets Commentator). And for some of those, it will be a financial disaster they must face head on (Out Of Debt Christian).

Many will start the year hesitant as to whether the stock market has reached a bottom. And with reservations about President-Elect Barack Obama's fiscal policy (The Subprime Blogger). Even impressive companies like AthenaHealth (Nasdaq: ATHN) look to be dangerous stocks to some (ZachStocks).

But others begin the year with hope for 2009. Industries like solar are bright and stocks like Myriad Genetics (Nasdaq: MYGN) are potential winners (The Iconoclast Investor). Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) (Navivest Stocks and Options Blog) and the new Global Sustainability Fund (Greener Pastures: Personal Finance) are also worthy of consideration. Perhaps 2009 will be remembered as the year when the Oracle of Omaha poignantly proves again to "be greedy only when others are fearful." That it is the wise investor who plants seeds when the sky is falling. And that he has the patience to let his investments grow for it is the "price of admission for any good deal" (The Investor's Journal).

Certainly, whichever your path in 2009, baby steps are important (How I Save Money). It is not all about market timing (Fire Finance). And if you begin to lose your way, remember the wise words of others like Warren Buffett (Investing School). A millionaire in 10 steps? (Money Blue Book) Perhaps. But certainly financial happiness is attainable (Financial Planning).

That concludes this edition. Submit your blog article to the next edition of The 52 Week Experiment's Weekend Edition using our carnival submission form.

Remember, The 52 Week Experiment does not necessarily endorse or agree with the information supplied in the investment articles featured in Weekend Edition. We put forth the articles for their stimulating content and encourage all readers to perform their own due diligence.

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Rentech - Looks Bullish If Gap Above Resistance Occurs

noreply@blogger.com (scmfinance) — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 11:00:00 +0000

Rentech (AMEX: RTK) should be at the top of traders' watch lists Wednesday morning as the stock closed strongly on the resistance at $0.70. In after-hours trading, RTK is up $0.02 to $0.72, which if it holds, would lead the stock to gap up above the resistance in the morning. A gap above the resistance at $0.70 would be a strong buy signal. Further, MACD is trending upwards and looks to bullishly cross the 0-signal line. Volume was above the 10-day average, spiking in the late afternoon. Again, a strong opening tomorrow will be a buy signal.

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Advanced Battery Technologies - Retrace To End 2008

noreply@blogger.com (scmfinance) — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 06:44:00 +0000

Advanced Battery Technologies (Nasdaq: ABAT) ended the current uptrend at $3.00 where the stock faces significant resistance. Over the last couple days, ABAT has retraced to a low today of $2.47. On December 19th, I advised ABAT would succumb to the resistance and retrace to near $2.50. Today, I am revising the low I predicted to a low closer to $2.25. Tomorrow will likely be another red day for ABAT as investors take final losses for 2008. The 50MA at $2.37 should provide support, but ultimately the downward momentum will likely cause ABAT to fall below $2.37. Nevertheless, I remain confident Advanced Battery Technologies will move past the resistance at $3.00 in early 2009 and once again be a solid investment over the long-term.

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Uranium Resources - Watch For A Continuation

noreply@blogger.com (scmfinance) — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 06:00:00 +0000

Uranium Resources (Nasdaq: URRE) retraced to a low of $0.48 after the previous run reached a high of $0.80 on December 15th. The low sat slightly below the support level (near $0.50) I indicated to watch for. Since touching the support level, Uranium Resources is climbing slowly, reaching a high today of $0.70 and closing the session at $0.67. URRE faces resistance at $0.70 marked by the 50MA. Should URRE gap above the 50MA tomorrow morning, the stock will be a buy. Should URRE move above the 50MA without gapping, it will be a more difficult decision to judge whether the stock has the momentum to move past the previous resistance at $0.80.

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American Capital - Deja Vu Falling Through Another Level Of Support

noreply@blogger.com (scmfinance) — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 05:50:00 +0000

Carve out a bottom and then set new lows. Unfortunately, over the last year, this two-step process is all too familiar to American Capital (Nasdaq: ACAS). Today, American Capital set a new 52-week low of $2.80 before closing the trading session at $2.88. All is certainly not lost for shareholders in American Capital nor is the possibility of nearing the bottom, but hopefully traders heeded last week's warning to set stops. Whether you invested or you didn't, the Motley Fool certainly found bright spots in American Capital today.

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American Capital - Carving Bottom

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American Capital - Carving Bottom

noreply@blogger.com (scmfinance) — Thu, 25 Dec 2008 19:46:00 +0000

American Capital (Nasdaq: ACAS) looks to be carving out a bottom near $3.00 after falling 92% from the stock's 52-week high in February of $37.85. ADX indicates the strong downtrend is weakening. MACD indicates positive divergence. Traders should note ACAS has travelled through previous support and projected bottoms over the past year and should place stops to limit losses should this area be another false bottom.

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Huntsman Corporation - Looking For Re-Entry After Retrace

noreply@blogger.com (scmfinance) — Thu, 25 Dec 2008 04:54:00 +0000

After giving up gains Tuesday, Huntsman Corporation (NYSE: HUN) fell lower in morning trading Wednesday but showed signs of recovery by the end of the trading period, closing up $0.02 at $3.50. HUN reached an intraday low of $3.30 and a high of $3.55. The low represented a retrace of slightly more than 50%.

The white spinning top formed by Huntsman indicates the retrace could have represented a quick period of consolidation and the uptrend will continue. Depending on Friday's early action, I will look to re-enter.

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Huntsman Corporation - Broke Trading Pattern, I Stepped Out

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Huntsman Corporation - Broke Trading Pattern, So I Stepped Out

noreply@blogger.com (scmfinance) — Wed, 24 Dec 2008 07:47:00 +0000

Huntsman Corporation (NYSE: HUN) gapped up again this morning, but ultimately closed in the red for the first time in five trading sessions. The upward momentum weakened significantly by mid-morning, triggering a stop order and the sale of all my shares at $3.59/$3.60.

The indicators and candlestick patterns have been weak for the duration of the run. However, Huntsman, until today, continued to set higher highs and higher lows, which has been the base of my trading strategy and kept me from locking in gains earlier. As soon as HUN dropped below the low of yesterday's session though, I cashed out. The high and low in today's session were both lower than yesterday's session.

I remain optimistic about Hunstman Corporation in the near future as the company remains under-valued. For now, however, I am out of HUN until at least after the holidays.

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Huntsman Corporation - Rates for Convertible Notes Purchased By Apollo Management

noreply@blogger.com (scmfinance) — Tue, 23 Dec 2008 04:08:00 +0000

peHUB, a public forum for private equity, reports that the $250 million in senior convertible notes of Huntsman Corporation (NYSE: HUN) purchased by Apollo Management shall have a 7% interest rate and a conversion price of $7.86. The information comes from a letter sent to Apollo LPs on December 15, 2008 and was confirmed by the Wall Street Journal. The peHUB writer provides sound detail and analysis into how much of a debacle the settlement was for Apollo Management from a private equity perspective and the impact it may have on LPs in the future. I recommend those interested read the article by clicking here.

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Huntsman Corporation - Strong Day With Some Love From Jim Cramer Too

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Huntsman Corporation - Strong Day With Some Love From Jim Cramer Too

noreply@blogger.com (scmfinance) — Tue, 23 Dec 2008 01:19:00 +0000

Huntsman Corporation (NYSE: HUN) marked another strong session with higher highs and higher lows, extending the upward trend from the bottom. Reaching an intraday high of $3.83 and a low of $3.54, Huntsman closed the session at $3.64. Strikingly, HUN has developed a pattern in which the stock opens strongly with a large gap up followed by a retrace in the early morning and consolidates for the remainder of the day. The pattern looks to continue tomorrow morning with another gap up as HUN is plus $0.14 in after-hours trading.

Importantly, expect Huntsman to have jumped onto a few more radars today after Jim Cramer called HUN one of his "Spec Faves" on today's edition of Mad Money. "Lots of belief this stock could be a major home run here with some downside," Cramer added. The caller questioned whether the $0.11 dividend was a red flag to which Cramer responded, "Not at $3 bucks." Click here to view the clip and skip to 9:06 for the portion on Huntsman.

Expect another solid session tomorrow, especially given that momentum indicators are also turning around nicely.

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Uranium Resources - Support and Consolidation

noreply@blogger.com (scmfinance) — Mon, 22 Dec 2008 05:07:00 +0000

As expected, Uranium Resources (Nasdaq: URRE) has retreated over the last few days after being unable to break through the resistance in the low $0.80s. Uranium Resources closed Friday's trading at $0.56 after reaching a session low of $0.54. The stock is a watch at these levels for a continuation pattern.

Uranium Resources announced before the market opened Friday that the company plans to significantly reduce spending by eliminating three officer positions, reducing compensation, and cutting other overhead costs. The measures will save the company $2.2 million annually, Uranium Resources estimates.

Furthermore, the company announced $13.5 million in cash on hand and that it would have no difficulty operating through 2010.

Lastly, the middle Bollinger Band sits at $0.51 while the 62% Fibonacci Retracement Level sits at $0.53. These two indicators may prove to be areas of support that will spark a continuation pattern. With the historically quiet week ahead, look for Uranium Resources to form support and consolidate at these levels before moving upwards after the Holiday period.

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Huntsman Corporation - Indecision Continues

noreply@blogger.com (scmfinance) — Sun, 21 Dec 2008 00:00:00 +0000

Huntsman Corporation (NYSE: HUN) ended the tumultuous week in indecision. While showing signs of a bounce and setting higher highs and higher lows, Huntsman shows few real signs of what is to come next week.

Huntsman announced after the market closed Friday, the company received the $325 million termination fee provided by the Merger Agreement. Credit Suisse AG and Deutsche Bank AG provided Hexion with the funds to cover the payment, in condition with a six-year loan.

Huntsman expects to receive $500 million more by December 31, 2008 from Hexion and Apollo Management, Hexion's parent company. $250 million of the remaining funds to be paid before December 31, 2008 is on condition of the issuance of 10 year Huntsman convertible notes to Apollo. The remaining $175 million is to be paid by March 31, 2009.

Initial research indicates Huntsman largely appears to be the same company it was prior to the announcement of the merger. While the global recession has certainly taken a toll on the company and affected profits and performance, the large downtrend in the price of the company's stock is more directly related to the collapse of the merger. In other words, investor confidence soured based more upon the emotions of a merger collapsing than the fundamentals of the business. Investors have let their emotions get the best of them as Huntsman's business will rebound with the global economy and the company will have an extra $1 billion in their pocket. And the true irony is, why would Apollo Management who dissolved the merger seek 10 year convertible notes if the private-equity firm did not have confidence in Huntsman Corporation?

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Advanced Battery Technologies - Steady As She Goes

noreply@blogger.com (scmfinance) — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 17:04:00 +0000

Advanced Battery Technologies (Nasdaq: ABAT) climbed steadily from a low of $1.17 in mid-November to an intraday high today of $2.90. The decline in broader markets and the economy as well as a decline in energy prices decimated the share price of Advanced Battery Technologies over the last year.

However, the company continues to put forth strong fundamentals and advance its market presence, and I remain confident the share price will continue to escalate from these lows. The announcement of a stock repurchase program and the acquisition of an electric vehicle company in a global recession only underscores the health of Advanced Battery Technologies, in my opinion.

With an EPS of $0.30, the P/E ratio in mid-November dropped to below 4x, which is why I strongly recommended the stock. Today, the P/E ratio sits near 10x.

Expect resistance levels to be strong in the $2.90s. Between the resistance and upcoming quiet holiday trading period, Advanced Battery Technologies will likely end the current uptrend. Expect the stock to consolidate near the previous support and 50MA near $2.50. But over the medium-term and long-term, expect the uptrend to continue.

Reminiscing, it was in July of 2007 when Advanced Battery Technologies was at the price levels of today and I first began trading the company. From these levels, the share price climbed to a high of $9.66 in the span of a few months. I cannot definitively project share prices near those highs again, but the fundamentals, growth, and management's decisions continue to impress.

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Huntsman Corporation - Not A Strong Finish, But Not Necessarily Bearish

noreply@blogger.com (scmfinance) — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 21:01:00 +0000

Huntsman Corporation (NYSE: HUN) closed at $3.37, or up 6.65% in Thursday's trading. Rebounding from a 52 week low set on December 16th at $2.82, HUN reached an intraday high of $3.64, up 29% from the 52 week low. Upon setting the intraday high, share prices declined to trade sideways in the mid-$3.40s for the remainder of the afternoon. In the last hour of trading, HUN broke through the resistance at $3.50 and ran to $3.59, but then rapidly declined to fall to $3.37 in the last 20 minutes of trading.

The chart above shows the day's action in 5min intervals. After testing $3.50 most of the afternoon, HUN finally broke through. Once through the resistance, I expected HUN to run and close strongly above the resistance. Instead, the action swung the other way and closed lower than expected.

While most of the day's gains were given back, the inverted hammer today is not necessarily bearish. Today's action could symbolize shorts covering, and tomorrow's action should be used to gauge confirmation of a reversal.

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Huntsman Corporation - Insider Buys

noreply@blogger.com (scmfinance) — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 16:33:00 +0000

Huntsman Corporation (NYSE: HUN) has been beaten down over the last year and a half, but if the $1 billion settlement isn't enough to make you re-think your position, maybe the fact that insiders are buying large chunks of shares is.

TheStreet.com reports the following over the last two days in their Top 10 Open-Market Purchases:

CEO Peter Huntsman purchased 429,000 shares
Director Wayne Reaud purchased 1,000,000 shares
VP Samuel Scrugs purchased 125,000 shares

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Huntsman Corporation - Bouncing Off A Bottom

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Huntsman Corporation - Bouncing Off A Bottom

noreply@blogger.com (scmfinance) — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 15:21:00 +0000

The bottom fell out of Huntsman Corporation (NYSE: HUN) on December 15th on news that the chemical company reached a $1.0 billion settlement with the private-equity firm Apollo Global Management who's unit Hexion offered to purchase Huntsman for $6.5 billion and then reneged on the deal. The sharp decline decimated a stock already battered this year as it fell to a low of $2.82 when in July of 2007 Huntsman Corporation traded at a high of $28.40, losing 90% of their value.

Hexion offered to acquire Huntsman at the height of the chemical boom in July of 2007 for $28.00-per-share, beating out an offer by billionaire Leonard Blavatnik. A year later, similar to all chemical companies, Huntsman's balance sheet had been hit hard by high energy prices and the downturn in the global economy. In June of 2008, Hexion filed suit that Huntsman's detiorating financials should nullify the acquisition agreement, and of course, Huntsman countersued in an effort to save the buyout.

The settlement included a $325 million break-up fee, $425 million in cash, and $250 million in exchange for 10-year convertible notes. So, while tough times remain ahead from a business standpoint, Huntsman Corporation is in a better position than most of its competitors with a newly funded $1 billion war chest.

Huntsman Corporation is coming off the low trading at $3.64 (up 29%) at the moment with good volume.

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Uranium Resources - Bullish Open Succumbs To Resistance

noreply@blogger.com (scmfinance) — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 04:15:00 +0000

Monday's strong close and bullish momentum indicators correctly signaled Uranium Resources (Nasdaq: URRE) would come strong out of the gate this morning. The resistance in the low $.70s and at the 50MA proved futile as the stock gapped up to $0.80. However, $0.80 turned out to be the high of the day, as the second level of resistance in the low $.80s proved to be incredibly strong. Once the stock's failure to break through the second level of resistance become apparent, traders locked-in the profits of the run over the last few days.

Not convinced the uptrend for Uranium Resources is over, I will look to re-enter the stock in the low-mid $0.50s or sooner if a continuation pattern becomes more apparent.

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Uranium Resources Inc. - Will We See A Resurgence In Uranimania?

noreply@blogger.com (scmfinance) — Tue, 16 Dec 2008 09:00:00 +0000

Just two years ago, we were in what Bob Bishop dubbed "uranimania." In July of 2006, the spot price for uranium traded just below $50/lb. One year later, in July of 2007, uranium skyrocketed and peaked near $140. Not many US-listed stocks offer exposure to uranium, so you can bet the stocks that did skyrocketed and small fortunes were made. However, the drop in energy prices and credit crisis coupled with a bubble uranium market has sent the price of uranium plummeting over the last year and a half, decimating the stocks exposed to uranium. Uranium dropped to trade below $50/lb, and as of December 8, 2008, the spot price for uranium was $54/lb.

There is not a formal exchange for uranium as there is for other commodities like gold and oil. Uranium price indicators are determined by a small number of private organizations, such as The UX Consulting Company, which monitor uranium market activities like bids, offers, and transactions.

As mentioned earlier, only a limited number of companies offer exposure to uranium. Cameco (NYSE: CCJ), USEC (NYSE: USU), Uranerz Energy (AMEX: URZ), Uranium Energy (AMEX: UEC) and Uranium Resources (Nasdaq: URRE) are among the few.

Uranium Resources jumped onto my radar today, as the stock moved up over the last week from a bottom. Tomorrow, Uranium Resources has strong resistance at .75 and the 50MA (at .77) to break through. However, given the strong close today, uptrending momentum indicators and above-average volume, the stock should test the resistance early and show signs of whether it will break through. Should Uranium Resources fail to break through early, we will likely see profit-taking from the last few days and a retrace. In after-hours trading, URRE is up 4.35% at .72.

If you're contemplating more than a short-term play in uranium, I would offer two observations:

The spot price of uranium fell below the low set in 2006 and is rebounding slightly. Lows are also reflected in stocks exposed to uranium.
While oil prices have fallen and investor's attention is elsewhere, the global demand for uranium will re-emerge in the near future. Not to mention, with the rise in demand, uranium supply will begin to lag.

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Oilsands Quest Inc. - Did Not See Buy Signal, But Don't Dismiss Potential For A Run Yet

noreply@blogger.com (scmfinance) — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 11:00:00 +0000

Last week, I observed positive divergence in Oilsands Quest Inc. (AMEX: BQI) and the possibility of a short-term reversal. And while on Thursday morning, the stock moved upwards with nice volume, the buy signal never presented itself as the stock did not break the downward trend line. BQI needed to reach a PPS of $1.04/$1.05 or so in order to break through, but the stock could not garner enough momentum to even break through $1.

Over the last couple days, the breakout PPS has sunk slightly, and a PPS of over $1 should spur a small run in BQI. The run will likely be small and I would expect the run to fizzle near $1.25 and the 50MA.

Oil rose in Asia Monday above $47 per barrel in anticipation of the production cut OPEC will announce this week. Certainly, the rise in oil will support a BQI run.

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