we have done a full analysis of exactly what occured and who increased airfares when over the weekend.

 FareCompare.com’s CEO Rick Seaney has posted his thoughts and perspective on the situation which you can find at www.RickSeaney.com or you can read the entire article ”Airfare Increase at Southwest Airlines Starts Avalanche“.

A total of 7,762 markets (unique city pairs) where increased by 5$ one-way.

Analysis of the tops 50 cities to/from each other yields a total of 1,179 markets and Continental’s increase is on 484 of these top markets.

The timing of this increase is unusual, initiating airlines normally issue increases at 8pm on Thursday night for maximum impact.

Non-stop flight schedule analysis for the U.S. and Canada shows:

• Continental has non-stop flights in 822 markets (unique city pairs) in the U.S. and Canada
• Fare increases of 5$ one-way occurred in 415 of these 822 non-stop markets or 50.4% of the non-stop Continental route system.

Further matching and rollbacks are likely to occur this evening and over the weekend.

We will send out an update after the 8pm eastern airfare feed.

This increase includes both business and leisure airfares (0, 3, 7,  10, 14, 21, 30  day advance purchase).

Non-stop analysis shows:

Air Canada has 75 markets with trans-border non-stops. This airfare increase applied to 100% of these routes.

• United has 22 trans-border non-stop markets. This airfare increase applied to 100% of these routes.

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Separately United Airline raised prices by 5$ each way for travel to Hawaii from all domestic departure points.

During the day (19-Jun) there was consistent matching activity on AirTran markets. 

The volume was significant 

The matching statistics are posted below. 

Glossary 

Market – city pair 

Major Markets – top 1250 city pairs (50 top cities to/from each other), some airlines do not have connecting flights in some markets 

This morning (Tuesday 19-June) at 10:00am all the major airlines except Continental and US Airways matched this airfare sale in overlapping AirTran markets. 

Continental did lower a small number of airfares to protect their Cleveland and Newark hubs. 

This sale comes on the heals of an business fare increase (less than 14-day advance purchase) 2 weeks ago which gave the major airlines fuel to match the increase. 

As an example of the scale of the matching in the 14-day advance purchase airfares: 

• American matched 52 markets, average decrease $80, largest decrease $307 
• Delta matched in 75 markets, average decrease $26, largest decrease $202 
• United matched 835 markets, average decrease $42, maximum decrease $586 

Regards, 

Rick Seaney
CEO, FareCompare.com 

So when is that hot airfare sale really not quite as hot as it seems?  When the airline bumps up their prices for a few days, then lowers them back down to the regular price a few days later, but calls that return to tbe regular price a “seat sale” instead.  

AirTran announced a system-wide summer airfare sale Monday evening. FareCompare.com’s airfare deal alerts technology counts this as the 3rd time in past month.  

Summer airfare sales are normally few and far between, prompting FareCompare.com to investigate this airfare sale information carefully. The investigation revealed AirTran has been raising prices for a few days and then lowering them back and declaring an airfare sale.  

Don’t get FareCompare.com wrong, we love the low prices at AirTran, it is the marketing spin that is irritating and misleading. It conjures up images of the never ending “Going Out of Business Sale”.  

For example, AirTran has 8 non-stop flights a day between Atlanta & Chicago (Midway).  

Full Image

A quick look at the FareCompare.com history graph for AirTran 14-day advance purchase fares between Atlanta & Chicago exposes this dubious marketing practice. We think the great every day prices at AirTran don’t need this type of spin (and it keeps us up late at night trying to figure out what they are up to).
 

Review of the 12:30pm EDT airfare distribution feed on 4-June-2007 shows that AirTran triggered the first wave of increases of $5 and $10 each way between 32% of the top 50 U.S. Domestic cities, with Continental matching and extending at 8:00pm EDT along the other major airlines matching selective overlap markets and extending from their hubs. 

After the 5-June 10:00 a.m. and 12:30 p.m. EDT airfare distribution feeds (next feed 8:00pm EDT) the activity is relatively light with the following highlights: 

• Continental reinforces its increase of $5 one-way for 3-day advance purchase airfares between 11% of the top 50 cities (30% Monday night), with very little Southwest route overlap. 
• The other major airlines continue to maintain equilibrium by matching selected overlap markets with Continental and AirTran. 
• Northwest and Delta roll back some of its matching increases from last night on competitive Southwest routes. 

The sensitivity to increases on Southwest routes at this point in the week is worth noting. 

This increase triggered selective matching (13% or less of top U.S. markets) by American, Delta, Northwest, United and US Airways.

American and Delta also used this opportunity to increase airfares in a similar $5 and $10 one-way fashion from their hub airports.

This particular attempted increase occurs on a Monday evening which is unusual. In the past month the major airlines have attempted increases on Thursday evening which has provided the weekend for matching activity and rollback decision making.
In separate news U.S. Airways filed a $158 airfare sale in13% of the top 1250 U.S. Domestic Markets.

Continental Airlines
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1)      Increased airfare between 30% of the top 1250 U.S. markets (city pairs)
2)      $10 one-way (20$ roundtrip) on walk-up airfares (0 day advance purchase)
3)      $5 one-way (10$ roundtrip) on airfares with advance purchase of 3 days or more
4)      For example, Continental increased airfare to 50% of the top 50 U.S. domestic destinations from their Houston hub.

Delta Airlines
—————-
1)      Increased airfare $5 and $10 one-way between 7% of the top 1250 U.S. markets (city pairs)
2)      For example, Delta increased airfare by $5 and $10 one-way to 65% of the top 50 U.S. domestic destinations from its hub in Atlanta.

American Airlines
———————
1)      Increased airfare $5 and $10 one-way between 9% of the top 1250 U.S. markets (city pairs)
2)      Increased airfare $5 and $10 one-way to 30% of the top 50 U.S. domestic destinations from its hub in Dallas-Ft. Worth.

Northwest Airlines
———————–
1)      Increased airfare $5 and $10 one-way between 13% of the top 1250 U.S. markets (city pairs)

United Airlines
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1)      Increased airfare $5 and $10 one-way between 7% of the top 1250 U.S. markets (city pairs)

US Airways
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1)      Increased airfare $5 and $10 one-way between 11% of the top 1250 U.S. markets (city pairs)
2)      Filed a $158 airfare sale on 7 day advance purchase tickets in 13% of the top 1250 U.S. domestic markets.
 
 
 

FareCompare.com - The Airfare Tracking Website, with its proprietary airfare processing software, notes this evening at 8pm Northwest Airlines filed a 2% increase on airfare between the U.S. & Canada.

For business airfares (7 day advance purchase or less) this increase represents an additional $40 roundtrip from/to Northwest Hubs Minneapolis/Detroit and $33 from/to Memphis.

This airfare filing is on the heals of a 2.5% increase by Air Canada and match by United Airlines on Tuesday.

Rick Seaney, CEO, FareCompare.com

The increase applies to 160 of the top 1,200 markets.

United Airlines matched Air Canada’s increase in the same 160 top markets.

Below are sample round-trip increases for San Francisco to Toronto by advance purchase.