The Avs Factor - A Colorado Avalanche Blog

Happy or Not: The Return of Ryan O'Reilly

2013-03-01T12:54:00.002-05:00

The Ryan O'Reilly saga is over. After what turned out to be a humiliating negotiation period (for both sides, in my opinion), a ridiculous impasse, and finally a contentious offer sheet by the Calgary Flames, Mr. O'Reilly is once again a member of the Avalanche. And oh baby, look at that pretty check he's set to receive.

Harrison Mooney writes,

It's a two-year deal, according to TSN. O'Reilly will earn $1 million in salary this year with a $2.5 million signing bonus. In year two, he'll earn a cool $6.5 million. It's $10 million total, averaging out to a $5 million cap hit.

That means, in terms of cap hit, O'Reilly is on par with the likes of Ryan Kesler, Mike Ribeiro, Patrice Bergeron James Neal, Bobby Ryan, Evander Kane, Jeff Carter, and Marian Hossa.

When it comes to that absurd $6.5 million that O'Reilly will make next season, that means that the second/third line center will be paid more than Cam Ward, Thomas Vanek, Ryan Miller, Jeff Carter, Ryan Getzlaf, Henrik and Daniel Sedin, and about 700 or so other players - not to mention the billions in the world who don't play a sport.

On the Avalanche, O'Reilly's cap hit will be slightly more than Matt Duchene's and Gabriel Landeskog's...combined.

His salary will be more than double that of Semyon Varlamov's. O'Reilly also doubles up on defensemen Erik Johnson and Jan Hejda.

O'Reilly gets all of this for his stupendous defensive play, as well as for being the leading scorer on a team that wasn't very good last season.

The 22-year-old was able to sign this deal by coming out of an extended offseason, in which Matt Duchene took a modest bridge deal (in order to prove he had the necessary resume for a bigger, longer-term deal), and holding out for a ridiculous, inflated contract. When the Avalanche refused to budge, O'Reilly signed an offer sheet with a division rival so that the team's hand would be forced.

Has Paul Stastny taught you nothing, sir?

Adrian Dater does a nice job laying out how this deal is going to seriously affect the Avalanche's payroll in the coming years:

With O’Reilly set to essentially make at least $6.5 million after next season and probably the following two (because he still has this season and three more to go before being eligible for UFA), do you think Duchene and Landeskog are going to want any less? Stastny could become UFA after next season, how much difference in salary will he accept by then from the $6.6 million he’s been making for a few years now and will continue to make next year?

What the Flames did today, essentially, was potentially blow out the Avs’ salary structure in the next couple years. The Avs let the Flames set the market for O’Reilly’s value – and they had to swallow their pride and accept it because gambling that they’d get a lottery pick with the Flames’ first-round pick this year was too poor a prospect. How awful would it have been for this team if they’d not only let O’Reilly go to Calgary, but then gotten a worse draft pick maybe thanks to his helping them out the rest of the year in the standings? It would have been a humiliating blow.

So the Avs have essentially shot themselves in the foot. They're going to have to pony up for Landeskog and Duchene and Varlamov, and they're not going to be able to significantly improve themselves through free agency.

They have to wait a year to trade O'Reilly, by which time his trade value may be a fraction of what it was yesterday.

O'Reilly basically went from being held hostage to becoming the hostage taker. The Avalanche ship now sails at his command. If he plays well (and I mean EXTRAORDINARILY well), then perhaps some of this mess can be forgiven - at least long enough for the Avalanche to get rid of him.

But if O'Reilly turns into another Stastny - a good player who is making way too much for what he brings on a night-in, night-out basis, then the Avs are going to sink under the weight of this deal. O'Reilly is going to sink.

A year ago, I was waiting to buy a Ryan O'Reilly jersey long enough so that I could get a "C" put on the front.

Now - not so much.

I'll root for his success on the ice as long as he's an Av, but part of me wants this to be the last big contract he ever gets in the NHL.

I'll save those wishes for Matt Duchene:

Paychecks are great. You want to get as much money as you can in this game, but for me, I love this game so much, I love this team and this franchise and this city, there's no way I could have held out

At the end of the day, O'Reilly got the money. But at 22, was it worth the sacrifice of being completely beloved by your fan base? Part of me believes that hockey players aren't purely in it for the money. I think a lot of hockey fans like to believe that. Some of the players are for sure. But others, I think, just want to play.

It doesn't seem that O'Reilly falls into that latter category, anymore.

Thoughts on an Unlocked Season

2013-01-18T23:04:00.001-05:00

I just really enjoy this picture.

I was at the point of complete apathy. Three weeks ago, I didn't give one iota if the NHL and NHLPA agreed to a new CBA or not.

Thanks to my season tickets for the Cornell Big Red hockey team, as well as the occasional Binghamton Senators affair, hockey lived on during the final months of 2012.

The lockout pissed me off - just like it pissed pretty much every other hockey fan off. Yet, similar to pretty much every other hockey fan, I can. not. wait. for the season to start.

It took viewings of this:

and this:

and this:

Hook, line, and sinker.

Hockey is back. Drop the puck. I make these predictions every season. Last year was somewhat of an embarrassment. It's time for redemption.

This season...

-Ryan O'Reilly returns before the fourth game of the season. He'll sign a one year deal, lead the Avalanche in scoring, and be a key part on the team's top 10 penalty kill. And now that he has your attention, he's going to win the Selke, too.

-Paul Stastny, refusing to be weighed down by trade rumors or buyouts, will have a career year (relatively speaking) playing alongside Jamie McGinn.

-Nobody calls for Joe Sacco to be fired.

-Tyson Barrie becomes a regular on the blueline.

-Milan Hejduk scores 15 goals (82 game equivalent of 25) and decides to return for one more season.

-David Jones, however, struggles to get his name on the scoresheet. Doghouse time.

-Captain Gabriel Landeskog flourishes along P.A. Parenteau and Matt Duchene. Finally, the Avalanche have a legitimate first line.

-The Avs go 24-18-6. Good enough for 54 points and a tie with the Minnesota Wild for the eighth and final seed. The Avs win the tiebreaker and make the postseason.

-Other Western Conference playoff teams: Blues, Predators, Blackhawks, Canucks, Kings, Coyotes, Sharks. Screw the Wings.

-Ryan Suter struggles without Shea Weber. Shea Weber doesn't struggle at all. Every "expert" in the world is predicting the opposite. Oh well. I'll take the annual Norris contender over the guy who has a crazy amount of spotlight on him in hockey-crazed Minnesota.

-The Edmonton Oilers don't get off to that hot a start. If Lake Erie can handle Edmonton's core, so can the rest of the West. Oilers don't pick first, but they don't make the playoffs, either.

-Except for Justin Schultz. He's going to be tremendous.

-Dany Heatley and Zach Parise show no chemistry whatsoever. The Wild get off to a bad start, finish hot, and just miss the playoffs by virtue of the tiebreaker.

-Calgary sucks.

-The Blue Jackets suck worse. A lot worse.

-Wade Redden, St. Louis Blues defenseman, becomes a force to be reckoned with.

-Jaromir Jagr is not relevant to anything. Wait..he plays for the Stars now?

-Eastern Conference playoff teams: Rangers, Penguins, Flyers, Bruins, Sabres, Capitals, Lightning, Hurricanes.

-Now that Brian Burke has been fired, the Toronto Maple Leafs get off to an absurdly good start but sputter down the stretch. In other words, not much will change. Sorry, Mr. Burke.

-Claude Giroux, buckling under the pressure of being Philly's captain, has a subpar year. Luckily, Ilya Bryzgalov actually does well in the regular season for the Flyers.

-Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin light the world on fire. They'll go 1-2 in scoring. Malkin will get his second straight Hart and Art Ross.

-Tuukka Rask is really good.

-Alex Ovechkin returns to goal scoring relevance on the right wing.

-Scott Gomez signs with the Devils and has a pretty good year. Martin Brodeur, on the other hand...

-A team from the Eastern Conference complains about travel, even though the West travels much, much more. Oh, sorry Winnipeg.

-Award Predictions:

Hart: Evgeni Malkin

Vezina: Pekka Rinne

Norris: Alex Pietrangelo

Calder: Justin Schultz

Lady Byng: Loui Erikson

Selke: Ryan O'Reilly

Jack Adams: Adam Oates

Art Ross: Evgeni Malkin

Richard: Steven Stamkos

-Final Four: Predators, Blues, Bruins, Penguins.

-Stanley Cup: Blues, Bruins

-Champion: Boston Bruins.

-Conn Smythe: Patrice Bergeron

-Two scenarios for the Cup presentation. Option A: Gary Bettman takes the opportunity to apologize to fans one last time for the joke that was the lockout. OR Option B: Gary Bettman DOES NOT present the Cup at all. Instead, he hands the duty to Brendan Shanahan, who immediately suspends operations until further review.

Let's play hockey.

Claude Lemieux Reflects on Sakic's Career

2012-11-12T17:08:00.001-05:00

On the day that Super Joe is to be inducted to the Hockey Hall of Fame, Claude Lemieux sat down with Jeff Marek and Greg Wyshynski to reflect on Sakic's career. It's a great interview and worthy of your time.

Take a listen.

Captain Landeskog

2012-09-04T14:55:00.000-04:00

I no longer have to wait to get my Ryan O'Reilly jersey. I can now confidently say that it won't have the captain's "C," at least not during any part of the foreseeable future. This is because the Avalanche has named its 19-year-old sophomore, Gabriel Landeskog, the franchise's fourth ever captain.

According to available research, at 19 years, 286 days, Landeskog is the youngest captain in NHL history. He is 11 days younger than Sidney Crosby, who was 19 years, 297 days when he was named captain of the Pittsburgh Penguins on May 31, 2007.

Landeskog becomes just the fourth captain in Colorado Avalanche history, joining Joe Sakic, Adam Foote and Hejduk. The Stockholm, Sweden native is the 11th captain in the history of the Avalanche/Nordiques franchise and only the third European-born, following Hejduk and Peter Stastny.

There has been unending talk since Landeskog entered the league that he had the leadership ability to be an NHL captain one day soon. Still, many Avalanche fans (including myself) thought that O'Reilly might be given the job due to his noted work ethic on and off the ice.

But Landeskog is a much flashier choice, and I won't pretend to know what goes on behind closed doors. But according to the Avalanche's release, Landeskog was appointed to the role by Coach Sacco after Milan Hejduk voluntarily stepped down.

O'Reilly has yet to sign a contract with the Avalanche for next season, and I have to wonder if this decision has anything to do with those negotiations.

Hopefully Landeskog can step up to the plate when (or if) hockey ever gets going again.

Go Avs.

One More Celebration For Sakic

2012-06-26T15:07:00.000-04:00

Hall of Fame baby.

Thoughts on Duchene's Two-Year Contract

2012-06-26T10:24:00.001-04:00

I've posted my thoughts on Duchene's two-year contract on The Hockey Writers.

After Duchene's rookie season, I wouldn't have taken a bet that he'd only be signing a two-year deal at this point in his career.

Though Duchene hasn't been a bust (or anything close), his injury troubles last year and his overall game have left much to be desired.

We've all heard the criticisms. He hasn't gelled well with line mates. He holds on to the puck for too long in the offensive zone. He gets off to ridiculously slow starts. He seems to have a knack for hitting the post - Gordon Bombay would be proud.

Still, his potential to be a #1 center who puts up 80-90 points is still there. If the Avalanche are going to be successful, he's going to need to reach that one day soon.

[Video]: Stunned Devils Fan

2012-06-02T23:32:00.000-04:00

Anyone catch this kid behind the bench after Jeff Carter's OT goal? Classic.

Crazy good seats, though. Hope he didn't have them for Game 1, too.

Hejduk Given One Last Chance

2012-05-19T17:57:00.000-04:00

The Avalanche could have very easily said "See Ya" to Milan Hejduk. The captain's play took a clear step back last season, as he failed to score at least 20 goals for the first time in twelve seasons. Though the Duke was durable (81 games played), he was a defensive liability (at times) for the first time in a long time and toward the end of year, his minutes were slashed and he spent many shifts on Joe Sacco's fourth line.

The Avs, starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel of their rebuilding phase, could have let the 36-year-old Hejduk retire or offer his services elsewhere.

Instead, they gave him a one-year deal to remain a member of the Avalanche.

As Dater mentions, Hejduk is certainly capable of returning to his 20-goal form again. If nothing else, the signing is a show of good faith to a player that has spent his entire career with Colorado. When Milan Hejduk retires, his will be the last number retired by the Avalanche for a good long while. The man has made his life in Colorado, and he deserves to retire an Av.

The Avalanche have somewhat of a reputation for parting ways with players who force the team to undergo arbitration. (See: Alex Tanguay.) Might this practice scare players away from signing in Colorado?

It shouldn't, because as evidenced by the Hejduk signing, the Avs take care of their own. They remain a classy organization to the end.

Here's hoping to a great last run for Milan Hejduk.

5 months to hockey.

4AHQM2RFNXSY

Second Round Predictions: Two Hours Late

2012-04-27T22:59:00.003-04:00

These are verifiable with several online bracket competitions. We're two periods into the Predators-Coyotes series, so not much has been compromised.

Nashville in 6
St. Louis in 5

New York in 6
New Jersey in 6

Avalanche Fan's Survival Guide to the Playoffs

2012-04-13T10:45:00.002-04:00

My latest Hockey Writers piece focuses on what we (and other) fans should do who find themselves without a specific team to root for in the playoffs. Check it out here!

2012 First Round Predictions

2012-04-11T10:28:00.002-04:00

The Stanley Cup Playoffs begin tonight and that means every blogger, mainstream media member, and fan will be scurrying to make their playoff picks and enter their playoff pools. This blog will be no different.

As an added bonus, I've also added the predictions of my "Hopeless Hockey Fan In Training," Adina, whose hockey knowledge is limited to the names of goaltenders on seven teams and Zdeno Chara's playoff beard.

Without further ado:

(1) Vancouver versus (8) Los Angeles

Winner: Vancouver in 6

The Kings scored the second fewest goals in the NHL this season while the Canucks gave up the fourth fewest. Jon Quick has the ability to steal a few games for Los Angeles (and Roberto Luongo certainly has the ability to lose a couple for Vancouver) but the Canucks should be able to pull this one out.

Hopeless Fan Pick: Vancouver in 4

(2) St. Louis versus (7) San Jose

Winner: St. Louis in 6

The Blues are a ridiculous 30-6-5 at home this season, and the Sharks play just .500 hockey on the road. St. Louis also boasts 2012's best goaltending tandem in Jaroslav Halak and Brian Elliot(!) while San Jose boasts Antii Niemi. This season was a huge disappointment for San Jose, and it won't end here.

Hopeless Fan Pick: St. Louis in 6

(3) Phoenix versus (6) Chicago

Winner: Chicago in 7

Chicago enters the postseason having gone 6-3-1 in their final ten games. Phoenix was similarly hot, going 7-1-2 down the stretch, en route to their franchise's first ever division title. Interestingly, the Winnipeg Jets missed the playoffs this season in the East. Curious. I expect this one to be a dog fight, and Mike Smith is certainly the x factor, but Chelsea Dagger will pull the Hawks through.

Hopeless Fan Pick: Chicago in 5

(4) Nashville versus (5) Detroit

Winner: Nashville in 5

Nashville is my pick to come out of the West this year, and even though I have them winning in a smooth five games, I don't think it will be easy. The Wings, possibly on their last legs to win a Cup with this core group, always perform well in the postseason and won't be an easy out. But the Preds finally have experience winning a series and they have all the tools to make a deep run. If anyone can shut down Pavel Datsyuk, it's Shea Weber and Ryan Suter. And if they fail, look no further than Pekka Rinne.

Hopeless Fan Pick: Detroit in 7

(1) NY Rangers versus (8) Ottawa

Winner: New York in 5

I've heard a lot of worries from Rangers fans, and while the upset is possible, it's not going to happen. The Rangers sputtered down the stretch, but they also had the East locked up and nothing to really play for. John Tortorella is a proven playoff coach, Brad Richards is a proven playoff performer, and Henrik Lundqvist should be your Vezina winner in June.

Hopeless Fan Pick: New York in 4

(2) Boston versus (7) Washington

Winner: Boston in 7

If I had more guts, I'd pick the upset. In the last ten years, defending champs have only gotten past the first round three times. Luckily for the Bruins, the Caps have no goalie.

Hopeless Fan Pick: Bostonnnnnn in 6

(3) Florida versus (6) New Jersey

Winner: New Jersey in 7

Most people are picking this as the easy "upset" of the first round. The only reason I think it goes seven is because of the likelihood that a bunch of these games will go to overtime. Together, these teams combined for 42 overtime games this season. That is, to put it simply, absurd.

Hopeless Fan Pick: Florida in 5

(4) Pittsburgh versus (5) Philadelphia

Winner: Pittsburgh in 6

The main event, if you will. Philly's goaltending enigma and Pittsburgh's top end talent will push the Pens over the top in what should be a nice, old-fashioned, brutal and bloody series. What wouldn't you do to get this on 24/7?

Hopeless Fan Pick: Pittsburgh in 4

_ _ _

The 2012 Stanley Cup Playoffs kick off tonight with the Penguins and Flyers at 7:30 on the NBC Sports Network.

Happy Watching!

Year End Avalanche Thoughts

2012-04-09T10:43:00.001-04:00

It didn't end like we wanted it to. An 11th place finish, seven points out of 8th, and no first round pick in the 2012 draft. Yet, in the midst of this somewhat disappointing end (in which the Avalanche finished 3-5-2 and likely would have made the playoffs if they hadn't thrown up in the big games) there remain an extraordinary number of positives that exist for next year.

My year-end thoughts:

-The best part about this season was Gabriel Landeskog. As the likely Calder winner, Landeskog led all rookies in points and was a dynamic, physical force on the Avalanche's top line for most of the season. He also led the team in shots and hits, and it appears that the Avs hit a home run with their #2 pick.

-Ryan O'Reilly is probably my favorite story of the season. He started the year as the third line center and gradually climbed the depth chart (with Landeskog) to become the Avalanche's top line guy. His emergence allowed for Matt Duchene's shift to wing (more on that later), and even though he sputtered down the stretch, I don't think that this is the ceiling for the likely future captain.

-It has been reported that Joe Sacco will be returning next season. I'm actually fine with this. A lot of people will point to the fact that the Avs have missed the playoffs for two consecutive years (for the first time ever) and that in every year of Sacco's tenure, they have been awful in the last month of the season. But here's the other truth. In every offseason thus far, Sacco has been given a ton of new players to work with. He's had to figure out endless line combinations and manage a ridiculous amount of injuries. Now, Greg Sherman appears to have finalized his core group. Let's give Sacco a chance to work with a stable group that he really should know by now.

-Will Matt Duchene play wing next season? I think that's where he's going to start. His chemistry with Stastny wasn't brilliant this year, but let's face it, neither of them were, in general. On the whole, Duchene took a step back in his play in 2012. A lot of that was due to injury. But he needs to start figuring out his game next year. He still plays with the puck too much and often doesn't make the simple play when its needed.

-Bravo to Greg Sherman. His moves to acquire Varlamov, McGinn, and Downie were all wins. I'm ready to give him the benefit of the doubt on his moves in the future. In Sherman We Trust.

-For the first time in over a decade, Captain Milan Hejduk didn't reach 20 goals. Is this the end for the Duke? Looks like it. One of my favorite Avs ever, and there's no doubt that his number will hang in the Pepsi Center one day. After Hejduk and Foote, expect the jersey retirements to be over for a long time.

-A ton of decisions to make on defense in the offseason. Johnson, Hejda, and O'Byrne are my only sure-things as to who will be back on the blueline. I have to believe Hunwick (despite a really nice final couple months) will be gone, and sadly, it might be time to part with one of Wilson and O'Brien. Room needs to be made for Barrie, Elliott, and eventually Siemens and Gaunce.

-Even though this blog wasn't as active, I was still showing my hockey fandom on Twitter, as well as The Hockey Writers. Give both a click and a follow.

-Thanks for reading, and be sure to follow for playoff predictions and free agent/draft coverage.

Until October...

NHL's New "Because It's The Cup" Commercials Stink

2012-03-30T11:52:00.002-04:00

While you're mourning the fact that the Avalanche likely won't be in the postseason in 2012, take a look at my newest article for The Hockey Writers by clicking HERE. Sorry, folks. But by the looks of those commercials, I'm almost happy that the Avs don't have to make that part of their legacy.

I Am In New York

2012-03-17T14:45:00.004-04:00

The Avs are taking on the Eastern Conference leading New York Rangers today, and I am in town to finally see my first game of the year. (Spring break came at an opportune time!)

To get into the playoffs, the Avs need to keep winning, as every bubble team in the West has apparently become unbeatable.

With Phoenix having the night off, a win in tonight's game will allow Colorado to move up to the seventh spot in the West.

Go Avs!

Daniel Winnik and T.J. Galiardi to San Jose for Jamie McGinn and Prospects

2012-02-27T19:34:00.004-05:00

This post, written by yours truly, also appears at The Hockey Writers

The 2012 trade deadline was more a trade dudline (how many times have you heard that one) but the Avalanche managed to be involved in one of the bigger transactions of the day.

Colorado shipped forward Daniel Winnik and T.J. Galiardi, along with a 7th round pick in the 2012 draft to San Jose for forward Jamie McGinn, and prospects Michael Sgarbossa and Mike Connolly.

Though it may feel like a hard hit (Winnik was a fan favorite and Galiardi's twitter account had many of us in stitches), GM Greg Sherman did make the Avalanche a better team through this deal.

Dater does a nice job breaking it down, but let's take one more quick look at the deal:

McGinn is having a breakout year of sorts and should fit in nicely to the third line. I'll let the fans at "Fear the Fin" do the talking on the pickup:

Hits really f(******) hard, and has good offensive skills. Can produce on power play as well as 5 on 5. He’s not very good defensively but he may improve. He’s been the bright spot on our trash third line this season…his behindthenet stats aren’t that impressive but I honestly think that’s more of a reflection of how bad Handzus and Mitchell are. RFA at the end of the season but he shouldn’t cost you guys that much going forward. [FtF]

Sad to see McGinn go. It seemed he had his nose in the game nearly every shift. His passing was much improved lately and he really had his head in the game and seeing the ice. I don’t think this one is going to go over too well in the locker room. [FtF]

I feel like Ginner was one of our core guys… not in the traditional sense of top 6, but moreso in what he brought to the ice and the consistent effort he put out every night to get the other guys back into the game. For a team whose chemistry already looks to be struggling, I wonder if this will be good in the end. We shall see. [FtF]

So it appears as though the Avs got a guy who is great in the locker room, brings a consistently physical game to the rink every night, and can score a few goals (12 this season) every now and then, or at least as many as many as Galiardi (8) and Winnik (5). He sounds like a classic Avalanche player (except for the physical part, perhaps?) and, along with Steve Downie, automatically will make the Avs tougher to play against.

As for the prospects, it seems that the Avalanche did well in that regard, too.

Mike Connolly has spent the 2011-12 season in the American Hockey League. He spent the previous three seasons as one of the top players in the WCHA as a member of University of Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs. He helped lead the team to an NCAA Championship in 2011. Hockey's Future has him pegged as a one-day borderline second-line forward in the NHL.

The more intriguing piece is Michael Sgarbossa, a 19-year-old left winger currently playing in the Ontario Hockey League. And when I say playing, I mean playing. He's tearing up the OHL, having scored 41 goals and 39 assists in in 54 games for the Sudbury Wolves this season. Hockey's Future has him rated slightly lower than Connolly, but he seems to be an exciting player that definitely has a chance at making an impact with the Avalanche one day.

Overall, a lot of credit needs to go to Greg Sherman in shaping this team. Yeah, I was pretty pissed about Downie, but in the short term, at least, he's been nothing but a positive. Sherman has managed to stop the team with some legitimate top-6 players (Duchene, Stastny, O'Reilly, Landeskog, Mueller, Hejduk, Downie), a gritty (and potentially very effective) third line (Olver, McGinn, Jones) and a serviceable fourth line (McClement, Kobasew, McLeod/Porter).

The Avalanche sit two points back of the 8th spot. With 19 games to go, a consistent month of hockey will be enough for the Avs to make the playoffs and gain some valuable experience for the future.

Today will help realize that goal.

Go Avs.

Avs Trade Quincey for Steve Downie

2012-02-21T16:08:00.004-05:00

Welcome your newest Av, he of 53 career goals (252 games) and 638 career penalty minutes. He comes at the expense of one of Colorado's most reliable defensemen, Kyle Quincey, who has been having a solid bounce back campaign in 2011-12.

For a team that is in DIRE need of top six forwards (specifically, a winger that can put the puck into the net), Colorado didn't exactly fill the need with Steve Downie. Downie, 24, has 12 goals and 16 assists in 55 games this season, along with 121 penalty minutes.

His best season came in 2009-10, when he scored 22 goals and was a +14 for the Lightning.

It's a puzzling move for the Avalanche. Rumors have been swirling about Philadelphia's James Van Riemsdyk and Columbus' Jeff Carter, both of whom would have given the Avs the goal scorer they so desperately desire.

Downie, on the other hand, is really nothing more than another second or third liner to throw into the system. Listed as a center, Downie has spent a lot of time playing on the wing, and on the plus side, isn't afraid to get dirty and throw his body around.

But it's still mystifying that the Avalanche used Quincey, one of the most valuable trade commodities on the team, to land a player that will likely not make any more of an impact than 10-15 goals a season.

Downie, like Quincey, will be a restricted free agent after this season.

Breaking: Kyle Quincey to Detroit for a 1st round pick.

Well this changes things. Sort of.

We all know that the Avs lack a first round pick this year. We all know that first round picks can be quite valuable.

Apparently, Kyle Quincey = a first round pick. But the Avalanche only were able to come up with Kyle Quincey = Steve Downie. Steve Downie < first round pick.

The Avs got crappy value from this deal, a trend in the Sherman era of GMing.

More later.

Jones Should Stay

2012-02-12T21:54:00.002-05:00

This article, written by yours truly, originally appeared on The Hockey Writers.

With the NHL trade deadline just two weeks away, it's time for teams to decide whether they will be "buyers" or "sellers" on February 27th. For some teams - Columbus, Carolina, Edmonton - no pending free agent or grizzled veteran is safe. These players could be attractive options for the buyers - think New York, Boston, Detroit, Vancouver - who may believe that they are just one piece away from hoisting Lord Stanley this June.

Other teams, however, are in a state of limbo. This is where the Avalanche fit in. Currently one point out of the eight spot in the West, the Avalanche is in a dog fight with at least four other teams for the final spot. If Greg Sherman and crew believes that this team has what it takes to secure that spot and possibly even make a deep playoff run, then we should see the Avs holding on to their assets and perhaps even going out and landing a top 9 forward. If, on the other hand, the team does not believe this group is going anywhere, certain players become available

Enter: Adrian Dater.

Last Monday, the Avalanche beat writer penned a blog post in which he speculated that David Jones, Shane O'Brien, and Kyle Quincey could all be on their way out of Colorado by the deadline. Puck Daddy also got in on the fun last week, naming Quincey as one of the seven most intriguing defensemen to look at on trade day.

Listen, folks. Getting rid of any of these guys is a bad idea - unless there is player of equal value coming back. However, as much as Avalanche fans enjoy Shane O'Brien's toughness and leadership and Kyle Quincey's guts and potential, the Avs have a ton of defenseman on the verge of making the team next season (Barrie, Gaunce, Siemens), so getting rid of a veteran defenseman or two to make room certainly makes sense.

David Jones, on the other hand? I'm not so sure. Let's take a closer look:

Dater makes a lot of good and completely valid points about David Jones. He's had a sub par season, not to mention the fact that he's an unrestricted free agent this summer. As Dater notes,

The Avs need to get something for him if they don’t plan to re-sign him. It’ll be just bad management if they don’t.

I'm not sure if Jones reads his press, but in the two games since these rumors began, Jones has two goals and three assists in two Avalanche victories. There's no doubt that he's been ineffective this season - terrible at times, even. But Jones is still just 27, and his twelve goals are still good enough to tie him for fifth on the team.

It's not as though his supporting cast is doing any better, either. Very few goal scorers are remarkable by themselves. Jones has played much of the year with Paul Stastny (on his way to a second straight disappointing season) and Jay McClement (not exactly an offensive juggernaut). Yes, Jones must be held accountable for his play, but fans tend to blame lackluster results on the player rather than looking at the broader situation. No one is arguing that Jones is an elite NHL goal scorer. But he's certainly a serviceable one. (Check out his snipe from Tuesday's game against the Blackhawks, below).

Furthermore, the bigger issue that the Avs are facing is depth. It's no secret that the Avalanche hasn't been strong on the wings in a long while. Currently, the top four consists of three mainstays: the soon-to-be-gone Milan Hejduk, oft-injured, but effective Peter Mueller, and the promising Gabriel Landeskog. The fourth winger? A mix of Jones, TJ Galiardi, and Chuck Kobasew. Not exactly an All Star ensemble.

Sure, this problem may be addressed when Matt Duchene, who transformed from center to winger earlier this season, returns, but does that mean Duchene's days as an NHL center are already over?

Finally, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that in two weeks, the Avalanche's playoff hopes will still be alive. Given that the team has no first round pick this season, it's playoffs or nothing for the fans. If the Washington Capitals go up to the draft podium with a top ten pick, I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that Greg Sherman's days in Colorado could be numbered. That said, given that the team is within striking distance, I don't see how Avalanche management could justify shipping one of its leading, albeit most inconsistent, goal scorers away, especially when he finally appears to be heating up.

Jones is still young and is still capable of providing important secondary scoring for the Avalanche. If he is to be traded, a similar player needs to be headed to Colorado. Otherwise, this season may be going to the dumps.

Bragging Rights and Friendly Rivalries

2011-12-19T12:30:00.003-05:00

Being an Avalanche fan in Philly always presents a certain set of problems that are difficult to overcome. The first being that the Avalanche hardly ever come here. Thus, I'm forced to go see games in New York, DC, and wherever else I can manage to get myself to in order to see the Burgundy and Blue play up close and personal.

The next problem is coverage. Not so much a problem now, but ten years ago (in the days when blogs had not yet started to take over the world), it was all but impossible to find any substantial, day-to-day coverage on the Avalanche.

The last problem concerns being "behind enemy lines," so to speak. Philadelphia is one of the craziest sports cities in America. Opposing fans aren't exactly welcomed with opened arms. Though Avalanche fans don't draw the same ire as say, Ranger or Devil fans, I've still put up with threats and insults over the years when I attend games downtown.

Attending the game downtown isn't an option this season, as the Flyers will face the Avs at the Pepsi Center tonight at 9PM ET. But what is an option is what the game on TV, and that it where the fun begins.

Among the people who know me, I'm seen as a "hockey guy," I guess. Everyone knows I'm obsessed with it, and everyone knows I'm obsessed with the Avs. So when it's time for an Avalanche and Flyers game, I can expect some good-natured ribbing the entire day leading up to the game. I can expect inbox messages on Facebook with YouTube videos of Flyer victories over the Avs (few and far between), and I can expect taunts during the game asking me why the Avs don't MAN UP AND HIT SOMEBODY FOR CRYING OUT LOUD. -Tangent- The Avs need to stay disciplined tonight. The Flyers aren't the Capitals. They're going to come out hitting. They just lost to the Bruins 6-0, and they're going to be pissed. Hopefully Hartnell doesn't kill anybody. -Tangent-

The point is, I welcome all of this good-natured ribbing. It's why I love watching sports. Not only do we, as fans, get to witness a competition taking place on the field or on the ice, but we also engage in a sort-of rivalry of our own when we watch the game. There's nothing more satisfying than watching another team's fan look shocked or disappointed when their goaltender gives up a huge goal late in the third period. There's nothing more exhilarating than when your team conquers your friend's team and that friend has to shut up for the rest of the night.

That's what I'm hoping for tonight. I want, rather, I NEED an Avalanche victory tonight.

This one's for bragging rights.

Go Avs.

Cautious Optimism

2011-12-04T23:38:00.002-05:00

In my last post, oh so long ago, I wrote about the interesting dichotomy we face as fans about being optimistic about our team's chances versus the need to be realistic about who that team actually is at this point in the season. I ended the post with this:

Colorado has reached a critical point in its season. As a group, they can either decide to turn things around right now, or they can continue to make Washington fans very, very happy.

The optimist in me says that the losing is going to stop, and the Avs will somehow find a way to pull things together and get back to where they were in October.

The realist isn't so sure.

Three wins later, including a really solid 60-minute effort against the Detroit Red Wings [presented by Amway] tonight, there are certainly reasons for Avalanche fans to start feeling some hope that this team is back on track and ready to turn this season into something memorable.

Those reasons start first and foremost with "The Factor," Ryan O'Reilly. The 20-year-old kid who many thought would be named captain a week ago started centering the newly formed second line during this eight-game stretch at home consisting of Gabriel Landeskog and Milan Hejduk. The trio has been tremendous, with O'Reilly leading the way. Over the last five games, he has four goals and five assists, and he has been named the first star for two games in a row. He basically took over during the third period against the Blues on Friday night, and he helped decide that game in the shootout.

But it hasn't only been O'Reilly making fans smile lately. Semyon Varlamov had some rough goings in November, and a lot of the Colorado faithful began to wonder if there was going to be a goaltender controversy on the horizon. Though J.S. Giguere still might see some increased time due to his stellar play, There shouldn't be a question that "Varly" is still #1. Since he gave up six goals to Pittsburgh on November 15th, Varlamov's GA line reads as follows: 2, 2, 2, 1, 2, 2. His lowest save percentage in that span was .929, and he stopped over 30 shots three times.

Finally, big time shout out to rookie defenseman Stefan Elliott. No, he hasn't been perfect. Yes, he made some bad mistakes tonight and saw little ice time due to the Avs rolling seven defenseman, but in his first five NHL games, he has made a big impact. In his debut against the Oilers on November 26th, Elliott scored the game winning goal with one of his nasty wrist shots. The offensively inclined blueliner followed that up with an assist on the 28th against Dallas, and yet another goal against the Devils on the 30th. In his fourth game, Elliott played a (short) career high 22:11 and more than held his own against the red hot St. Louis Blues. With Erik Johnson's return, Joe Sacco will have a tough decision to make about whether or not to keep Elliott in the lineup. But as Sacco has said, if he sits, it won't be for long.

The Avs went 5-3 during their franchise long 8-game homestand, and they now sit in the thick of the Western Conference playoff race with 27 points. A .500 record in tow and a big matchup coming up against the Canucks on Tuesday night, there is more than one reason to be cautiously optimistic about how this season will play out.

On Being Realistic versus Optimistic

2011-11-21T10:02:00.002-05:00

The Avs have lost four of their last five, and they are 2-7-1 in their last ten. Their six regulation wins is tied for fourth worst in the league, and the six points they've earned in ten home games is the worst mark in the NHL.

The optimist in me is screaming to stay the course - things will get better when Matt Duchene and Paul Stastny and Erik Johnson really get going.

The realist in me says otherwise.

Back when the Avs were a league powerhouse (don't those days seem like so long ago?), Colorado could never really be counted out of a game. There was too much star power up front and too much consistency on the back end to simply assume that being down one or two goals would cause the team to fold.

But now, in the Post-Sakic era, there is a whole generation of Avalanche fans who have never known this team to be anything but mediocre.

Think about. A kid born in July 2001 has never seen an Avalanche Stanley Cup. Let's go out on a limb, and say that the kid didn't really start following hockey until around 2007-08. Consider what he (or she!) has been through:

Starting with 07-08: Cool, the Avs made the playoffs. The very next season? Crap, the Avs finish third-to-last. But hey, they get to draft Matt Duchene who will turn the franchise around. Sakic retires. Uh-oh. But the Avs make the playoffs! There's something brewing here! Wait, now they're second-to-last? Whatever, at least Gabriel Landeskog will make things better.

Which brings us, Avalanche fans, to the present day.

In the Post-Sakic era (aka the "Matt Duchene Era), the Avalanche has been an inconsistent and relatively disappointing club. The model has been set. Start the season hot, simmer down in November and December, collapse after January. That has become the culture. There is no Peter Forsberg to carry the team on his back. There is no Joe Sakic to score that game winning goal. No doubt, Duchene is a supreme talent, and his past couple goals have been nothing short of extraordinary, but he's not at the point where he can go out and dominate a game. If he is, he hasn't shown it on a night-by-night basis.

As fans, we want to be optimistic. We see the promise of Duchene and Stastny and O'Reilly and Jones and Landeskog. We see the ability of Hejduk and Johnson and Varlamov, and we believe, in theory, that the team should be set to, at the very least, make a run to the playoffs.

But the reality is very different. On a game-by-game basis, these players do not perform as we hope. There are too many nights when they are all invisible. There are too many nights when Johnson turns the puck over or Jones doesn't score or Stastny doesn't rack up assists. The Avalanche are averaging 2.5 goals per game in the month of November. Take away a 7-6 loss to Dallas, and that number drops to 2.1.

We're getting to the point in the season where a team's record indicates what they are. Teams that got off to bad starts (Detroit, Vancouver, Boston) are starting to play well and making moves to get into top playoff contention. Other teams (Colorado) are quickly fading and already starting to lose ground in the race for eighth.

Again, when I watch games and the other teams scores first, I always believe that the Avs will tie it up and go on to win. It's the result of being a die-hard fan. I want to be optimistic, and I don't want to give up on a game just because of a goal in the first ten minutes.

Slowly, it's becoming harder and harder to maintain that facade.

Colorado has reached a critical point in its season. As a group, they can either decide to turn things around right now, or they can continue to make Washington fans very, very happy.

The optimist in me says that the losing is going to stop, and the Avs will somehow find a way to pull things together and get back to where they were in October.

The realist isn't so sure.

The Duke Becomes a Captain

2011-11-14T11:02:00.004-05:00

Captain Hejduk

Fresh from the Avalanche twitter account, the Avs finally have a new captain.

In a tweet at 10:57 ET this morning, the Avalanche revealed:

MILAN HEJDUK NAMED CAPTAIN: Veteran winger to become third captain in Avalanche history. Details to follow.

For many, Hejduk is the obvious choice to captain the Avs. In terms of all-time Colorado statistics, Hejduk is near the top of almost all of them.

For the regular season, Hejduk is:

-1st in games played (910)
-1st in game winning goals (58)
-2nd in goals scored (357)
-2nd in points (757)
-2nd in power play points
-3rd in assists (400)
-4th in +/- (120)

Hejduk also has the third most playoff points in team history (behind Sakic and Forsberg) and was part of the 2001 Stanley Cup team. He is the only active Avalanche player remaining from that group.

He is also tied with Joe Sakic for most consecutive 20-goals seasons (11) and is on-pace to top twenty goals (once again) this season.

Many have been calling for the Avalanche to name a captain. After the Avalanche fell to the Flames last Monday, Adrian Dater wrote,

My game story from tonight centered a lot around the fact the Avs still don’t have a captain. Which begs the question: is there one on this team? Or, is it just a team full of complementary guys? I think, at this point, it’s a fair question.

In a move that seems (on the face of it, anyway) to be more symbolic than anything (are the younger Avs suddenly going to be looking up to Hejduk more than they were already?), Hejduk will need to help right the ship for the struggling Avs, who currently hold a putrid 2-6-0 record at home.

Fans have never known #23 to be the most vocal of players, but there's no doubt that he still works hard and does the right things on and off the ice. He's a winner, and a guy who has been clutch in key situations before.

I can't help but feel a little disappointed that I'm not writing about Ryan O'Reilly taking this role. He has really elevated his game this year, and by all accounts, is the hardest working player on the team.

Then again, maybe the 20-year-old isn't quite ready to assume the role.

Congratulations to Mr. Hejduk, who will no doubt be one of the last Avalanche players (after Adam Foote) for a long while to get his number retired upon finishing his career. He's been one of my favorite players for over a decade now, and he is fully deserving of the "C."

BREAKING: Winning at Home is Pretty Important

2011-11-07T10:41:00.002-05:00

Pictured: (Apparently) The Friendliest Place on Earth

Last night's 2-1 loss to the Calgary Flames dropped the Avs to 1-5-0 at the Pepsi Center.

That's two points out of a possible twelve, folks.

Luckily, a 6-1-1 road record has kept the Avalanche season afloat, and if they could figure out how to score goals at home, we might just see them in the playoffs this year.

Indeed, in the six home games, the Avs have been outscored 17-7. On the road, the Avs are outscoring opponents at a 33-25 clip.

I'm not going to speculate as to what's going on. There are plenty of theories, mostly revolving around "fan enthusiasm" and "coaching." I don't buy into the former, but the latter may have merit at this point. Still, I don't think it's Joe Sacco's time to go.

Let's save that one for another post.

Instead, let's take a look at some interesting numbers regarding the playoffs, the Stanley Cup, and home rink success.

--Out of the sixteen current playoff teams, just one (Buffalo) has a losing record at home (3-4-0)

--The six division leaders have a combined home record of 32-5-5. That's good enough for 67 points out of a possible 77.

--Of the sixteen playoff teams, only five (LA, Florida, San Jose, Toronto, and Ottawa) are being outscored on home ice. But the combined margin is just twelve goals.

--Every single playoff team in 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, and 2004 had a winning record at home. The streak is broken in 2003 when the eighth-seeded Islanders were 18-18-5 at the Colosseum.

--The last five Stanley Cup champions have combined for a 131-49-25 record on friendly soil. That's a 76% point percentage. Again, the Avs are currently on pace for about a 15% point percentage.

In other words, it's pretty simple.

Win at home, or get rid of any shred of hope for success.

Duchene's Slow Start: No Need To Worry

2011-10-19T11:51:00.004-04:00

Arguably Colorado's most talented player, Matt Duchene hasn't exactly gotten off to a stellar start this season. In six games, Duchene has just one goal, two assists, and only eleven shots on goal. He ranks tenth on the team in ice time and just sixth among forwards.

Duchene's stats look even worse when compared to those of John Tavares (five goals, three assists in four games), a player whose career has paralleled Duchene's since the two were drafted as the #1 and #3 selections in the 2009 draft.

Should Avalanche fans be worried?

The answer: Not at all.

Even though fans may not approve, Duchene is a notoriously slow starter, and his NHL career is evidence of that fact.

Fans may remember his rookie year in 2009, when it took Duchene seemingly FOREVER to get that first goal. He had just three assists through the first seven games before tallying his first goal in the eighth against the Detroit Red Wings (presented by Amway). Still, Duchene continued to struggle and had just two assists in the next five games after. Then, after scoring a goal on October 30th (his second), Duchene was pointless until November 18th, a span of seven games. Overall, he had just seven points in his first 21 games. Finally, Duchene began to take off. He tallied seven goals and five assists over the next eleven games and his campaign for a Calder nomination was finally launched. Dutchy finished the year with 24 goals and 31 assists in 81 games, leading all rookies in scoring and was third in Calder Trophy voting behind Tyler Myers and (gag) Jimmy Howard. Despite the slow start, Duchene still managed to impress in his rookie season.

Being a year older and more experienced didn't help in 2010. After scoring and assisting on a goal against the Blackhawks to open the season, #9 wound up with just one goal and four assists in the first seven games. For the next thirteen games, Dutchy found a way to pick up assists (ten), but he scored just two goals. Keep in mind that this stretch took place from October 23rd to November 20th. That's a long time for a top line/second line forward not to score. True to form, however, Duchene once again shifted into a new gear. He tallied ten goals in the next twelve games, and even though the Avalanche season turned out to be dreadful, the Dutch managed to improve on his rookie totals by compiling 27 goals and 40 assists in 80 games. He improved his shot total by 22 (from 180 to 202) and recorded eleven more even strength points than the year before. Overall, many considered this to be a successful second year for the '08 #3 pick.

A quick look at Duchene's starts in the OHL also support the idea that he isn't the greatest early season performer.

In 2008-09, the Haliburton, Ontario native put up 10 points (6g/4a) in his first 11 games with the Brampton Battalion. Not bad numbers by any account, but when you consider he ended up averaging nearly 1.4 points-per-game on the season, you can see how those stats weren’t up to his personal standard.

An even better example may be the 2007-08 season, his first in the OHL. That year, Duchene totaled 10 points (6g/4a) in his first 20 games before finding his groove and netting 40 points in his last 44 contests after adjusting to playing in the OHL.

So here's an early season message to Avalanche fans:

Don't worry too much about Matt Duchene's somewhat lackluster play. The kid is entering the prime of his career, and the points will start to come soon enough (Although, based on history, probably not until sometime around mid-November).

Yes, there's going to come a time when Duchene is expected to perform for a full 82 games. The Avs have gotten off to hot starts the last few seasons, but things aren't always going to turn out that way. In years when the Avalanche struggle at the start of the season, fingers will be pointed at Duchene and his ultimate performance on the ice. He'll need to contribute early and often.

That time hasn't come yet. The Avs are winning, the team has three solid lines, and for now, Duchene can wait a little longer to start going on a tear.

But hopefully he can break free a little earlier next time around.

ANDY, ANDY, ANDY, ANDY, ANDY, ANDY, ANDY - Yeah, That's Seven

2011-10-13T22:33:00.004-04:00

One of the few saves made by Craig Anderson in Colorado's 7-1 decimation of the Senators (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Adrian Wyld)

The Avs just got done dismantling former netminder, Craig Anderson, and the Ottawa Senators.

The numbers speak for themselves:

-39-16 shot advantage for the Avalanche, including an 18-4 first period

-4/6 on the power play

-Four third period goals

Looking back, this game could have gone in a completely different direction. The Senators scored just four minutes into the game (on the power play and on their first shot) and if this Avalanche team came close to resembling last year's, that might have been all the inspiration Colorado needed to pack it in for the night. Instead, the Avs capitalized on a power play of their own just three minutes later. From that point forward, they owned the night. They didn't let the Senators gain any momentum, and they put together a full sixty minute effort. Beautiful.

The goal scorers for tonight:

Milan Hejduk (PP)

Gabriel Landeskog (Second career goal, second straight game)

Joakim Lindstrom (Two goals in first career game)

Matt Duchene (First of the season)

Daniel Winnik (First of the season)

David Jones (First of the season)

Ryan O'Reily also added three assists, while Erik Johnson and Ryan Wilson each had two of their own.

Overall, this was an important game for the Avs, even though it only counts as two points. Thus far, the team had been struggling to score. Now that a lot of key players picked up their first points of the year (especially Duchene and Stastny), the offense should start coming a lot easier.

It's also worthy to note that Peter Mueller was a healthy scratch tonight. It's going to be hard to take Lindstrom out of the lineup after his performance, so it should be interesting to see who Sacco chooses to sit. (Perhaps TJ Galiardi? He was promoted to the Stastny line in place of David Jones, but Gali put up straight zeroes on the board tonight and played a team low 10:14.)

In Retrospect

It was a fun game to watch. Still, it's only one game. Let's see if they can continue this streak against the Habs.

Three Avalanche Stars

1. Joakim Lindstrom (Two goals and five shots in NHL debut)

2. Gabriel Landeskog (GWG, one assist, three shots, living up to the early hype)

3. The Avalanche Team (Let's see more!)

Next Up

Montreal. Saturday. 7PM ET.

Video Fix

Here's Ryan Wilson sticking up for Gabriel Landeskog:

Avs/Jackets Video Recap

2011-10-13T15:23:00.002-04:00

Due to ill-timed working hours (7-10) and a lack of internet, I was unable to fully take in the joy that was last night's 3-2 shootout victory over the Columbus Blue Jackets. I expect that some of you feel the same way.

Courtesy of several sources, here's a compilation of what you missed:

A full recap from Altitude, including Marc Moser's awesome calls

A game summary from the boys at NHL.com

A video of Gabriel Landeskog's first NHL goal, which tied the game with just 41 seconds remaining:

And finally, the shootout that decided everything:

The Avs are back at it tonight against Craig Anderson and the Ottawa Senators.

Go Avs