The Great Zaganza

The Secret Endgame

noreply@blogger.com (Great Zaganza) — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 14:49:00 +0000

As we predicted quite a while back, reports are now surfacing which confirm our suspicioun that Democratic party leaders are organizing an endgame to the primary season.

The writing has been on the wall for some time: party elders lining up behind Obama, repeated calls for an end to the negativity in the campaign, promises that the nomination would be settled long before the convention, etc.

However, now it is actually happening. The Wall Street Journal has basically come out and said that Nancy Pelosi, alongside other top establishment dems, will approach a candidate (likely after Tuesday's primary) and ask them to step aside.

This scenario is one that we saw coming months ago: only some top brass could end this fight, especially now that Hillary has made her public image so committed to staying in the race. This will take the combined powers of Pelosi, Dean, Emmanuel, and possibly Gore.

Even so, expect it to happen, and expect it to happen soon.

Why?

Because Pennsylvania is likely the last primary to matter, and its looking like Hil's victory wont be as huge as she would like.

NC will go to Barrack, Indiana will be close, and again, NO ONE CARES about PR. Sorry brothers and sisters from the island... its true. Get over it. In the entire history of our country, PR will never decide a nominee. Wont happen.

In any case, the rest of the primary season is fairly predictable, meaning that Penn was Hil's last chance to make some sort of impact, and it appears that she has failed to do so. As such, it is time for the adults to step in and end this.

Thank god.

Now all the Dems need is for Bill and Hillary to endorse Obama and move their motivated, if recently disheartened, base over to his came so we can actually win this election.

And we're back!

noreply@blogger.com (Great Zaganza) — Sun, 13 Apr 2008 05:47:00 +0000

I know its been a little while since our last post, but fuck you. We've been busy. Anyhow, heres the latest: its been an up and down week for the Democratic candidates, but mostly up for Obama and down for Clinton.

Oh sure, Barry (/wonkette) said that Pennsylvania voters are bitter, and now apparently everyone is supposed to shit themselves with indignation, but overall things are looking very much like they were looking a week ago, only more so.

More polls have now come up showing the two in close single digits in Pennsylvania, Obama still has his comfortable lead in North Carolina, and Indiana is a toss-up.

Now, word comes from The Scotsman that Jimmy Carter and Al Gore are planning some sort of wonder-twins magic wherein they will combine their super-human philanthropic powers and force Hillary out of the race. According to this article discussions have taken place between the two, and its no longer a question of "if" as much as "when." I'll believe it when I see it, but its nice to think about.

So, to sum up: Obama has apparently delivered a mortal insult to red blooded Pennsylvanians by suggesting that they are unhappy with the government and as such seek out ways to alleviate and vent their frustrations, and as such he is completely unqualified to help make things better for these sorry rednecks. Not buying it? Nah, us neither. Although, it is funny to see Hillary try and seize on this and portray herself as little Ms. town and country.

Enjoy your Sunday.

Kosher Coke is Here!

noreply@blogger.com (Great Zaganza) — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 02:18:00 +0000

No politics tonight folks, instead... something completely different.

Remember how good Coca Cola tasted when you were a kid? Not Diet Coke, that stuff was gross (at least to an impressionable young GZ at the tender age of 5). Coca Cola was where it was at. That smooth sweet delicious taste that just doesn't seem to exist any more. What happened? Did you just get older and your tastes changed? Nope. Coke changed.

In 1985 Coca Cola changed its original formula to include high fructose corn syrup instead of sugar (or sucrose). This changed the taste to something a bit more chemical and saccharine.

Well, now is the time of year that the original Coca Cola comes back out, the time of year where you can relive the days when Coke actually tasted great, instead of the chemical mess it is usually.

Its passover, and its one of the worst kept secrets in food that Coke makes a passover version of Coca Cola classic for us Jews, a passover version that uses Sucrose instead of high fructose corn syrup. We here at GZ just happened to snag a bottle today at our local supermarket.

Here it is, in all its unassuming glory. Notice the white cap instead of the traditional red. That is all that identifies this shape shifter in the supermarket, you could easily have some in your own house and not even know it.

Now, just to prove that there really is a difference, here are pictures of the ingredients.

Notice the lack of corn syrup, with just sugar (sucrose) in it's place.

Now for a regular bottle of coke:

Notice the high fructose corn syrup. For shame.

Now, does it actually make a difference? I conducted a blind taste test on a few friends and Mrs. GZ to find out.

I poured both coke and the kosher coke into different glasses, each with some ice. One thing I noticed immediately is how the Kosher Coke's froth was thicker and lasted longer. Next, I had the folks try them and point to the glass which was their favorite. Without a hitch, all of them pointed at the Kosher Coke.

The difference? Various adjectives I heard them use were: creamier, milder, less chemical, less aftertaste, and just better.

So, the moral of the story people: go out and look for some Kosher Coke in your local supermarket. It only comes out once a year (unless you live in Israel) and its worth the search.

And His Name Was Emmanuel

noreply@blogger.com (Great Zaganza) — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 14:23:00 +0000

Newsweek has an *excellent* article about the potential roll Rahm Emmanuel (one of my favorite people in Washington) may play in finishing the nomination battle. The general consensus is that Rahm is close with both the Clinton's and Obama, has great standing, is respected, and is generally a tough motherfucker. He is exactly the sort of person who would be willing and able to tell Hillary that the race is over, something that Howard Dean lacks the standing to do, and Nancy Pelosi lacks the personal connection to do.

Rahm is noted for his work in Chicago as a congressman, his work as an operative in the Clinton White House, and his stewardship of the DCCC in the 2006 election cycle. The dude lost a finger as a kid, studied ballet, and is known for having one of the foulest mouths on the hill. He is also known for his well publicized rivalry and contentious relationship with DNC Chair Howard Dean. In short, this guy is awesome.

Bad Poll Day

noreply@blogger.com (Great Zaganza) — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 13:30:00 +0000

Here we are, just getting up and getting to the daily business of running the Great Zaganza office, when we see this: a new Rasmussen poll has Senator Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton nationally 51% to 40%.

This 11% lead (far above the margin of error) is the largest national lead yet for Obama, and is easily big enough to give some Clintonista's serious nightmares.

What is unclear now is if this is due to people paying attention to Obama and liking him, or paying attention to Hillary and hating her.

One thing is clear though: this is indicative of the national trend, and it will continue to move in this direction for the immediate future. This is extremely bad news for Clinton, who was hoping for a big win in Pennsylvania in two weeks time.

Rough Day?

noreply@blogger.com (Great Zaganza) — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 03:29:00 +0000

Daily Roundup: April 7, 2008

noreply@blogger.com (Great Zaganza) — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 02:42:00 +0000

Its been a long weekend folks, so enough talking. Lets get to the news:

Terry McAuliffe, former head of the DNC and current head of Hillary Clinton's Presidential Campaign Committee has been photographed in Washington posing with Obama supporters and smiling while helping them hold up their Obama signs. Everybody wants to feel like a winner once in a while eh Terry?

Barack Obama has said that he may not necessarily choose a foreign policy VP as he already feels confident in this arena. Hillary was asked for a comment but she was too busy dodging sniper fire.

In 1992, John McCain after being insulted by his wife in front of reporters, apparently turned around and called her a "cunt." Though widely considered a vulgar remark, this exchange finally ended all questions as to his perceptive abilities. Classy, John.

After secretly collaborating with the government of Columbia for a trade deal which Hillary Clinton publicly opposed, chief campaign strategist Mark Penn has stepped down (or aside?). Clinton's campaign is expected to descend into a miasma of baseless claims of self-worth, republican style attack ads, meandering messages, and... well, you get the point. He wasn't a very good strategist. Also, rival strategist David Axelrod got to do a tiny victory dance.

Former Federal Reserve head Alan Greenspan has said that the USA is likely in a recession (or heading to it) and simultaneously endorsed John McCain, a man who has said he doesn't understand the economy. No joke needed.

Republican super strategist Bill Kristol has said most Republicans expect Barack Obama to be our next president. Honesty, or maybe a trick to lure Democrats into a false sense of security? Or does he WANT Democrats to think he is luring them into a false sense of security? DAMN YOU KRISTOL!

Montana Superdelegate Margaret Campbell has endorsed Barack Obama.

Montana Superdelegate Margaret Campbell has retracted her endorsement after local party officials intervened, citing a violation of party rules.

John McCain raised 15 million dollars in March, topping his previous fund raising record. When asked for comment a spokesman for the Obama campaign said "$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$"

Daily Polling Roundup:

Public Policy Polling

North Carolina
Primary Matchup: Obama 54, Clinton 33

American Research Group

Pennsylvania
Primary Matchup: Obama 45, Clinton 45

Gallup Poll

National
Obama 52, Clinton 43
Obama 45, McCain 45... McCain 47, Clinton 45

Rasmussen Reports

National
Obama 51, Clinton 41
McCain 46, Obama 45... McCain 47, Clinton 44

Favorable / Unfavorable
McCain: 54 / 43
Clinton: 45 / 53
Obama: 52 / 45

North Carolina
Primary Matchup: Obama 56, Clinton 33

Democratic VP Guide

noreply@blogger.com (Great Zaganza) — Sun, 06 Apr 2008 00:21:00 +0000

One of the most common questions I get asked is who the Democratic Nominee will choose as his/her (his) VP. This has been a difficult question to answer, because the normal choice for a VP is a white governor from the opposite geographic region of the Presidential nominee. However, the Dems really don't have any good white governors from the south, unlike the Republicans who have Charlie Crist (who will be the VP, count on it).

Well, The Politico has heard my lamentations, and has put together a reasonably good guide for potential VP choices.

Three notes before you go though:

1. Don't expect to see John Edwards or Al Gore on the list, it wont happen. Ever.

2. They put Barack/Hillary on the VP list, but this is extremely wishful thinking. If Barack somehow manages to bone this nomination, its possible he would be a VP pick for Hil (to somehow avoid the massive wave of backlash that would hit her square in the saddlebags and cankles), but an Obama/Clinton ticket will never happen. Hillary wouldn't do it, and Barack wouldn't ask her. She wouldn't bring anything to the table, and they don't get along.

3. While the Politico article does mention Mike Bloomberg as a possible candidate (wont happen, Barack needs to win the south, not the New York Jewish vote), I think they didn't go far enough and mention a possible Republican or two. Its a far fetched idea, but I wouldn't completely shit myself if Chuck Hagel was on a short list. A moderate Republican who is retiring the Senate anyways would make sense, and bring in the independents and southern white vote. Just a thought.

No Daily Roundup!

noreply@blogger.com (Great Zaganza) — Sat, 05 Apr 2008 16:21:00 +0000

Sorry folks, times are tough here at the GZ compound, 52 of our best girls were just taken away so we are dealing with that heartbreak.

In all seriousness though, too much to do and not enough time to do it in, so no daily roundup until Monday. Frankly though, not a lot has changed. See you all on the flip-side daddy-o.

No Shame: Clinton Jokes About Lies on Tonight Show

noreply@blogger.com (Great Zaganza) — Fri, 04 Apr 2008 16:18:00 +0000

Last night, approximately 5.7 million people watching the Tonight Show had a nice little surprise: Hillary Clinton on the couch chatting up Jay as if they were childhood friends. It isn't unusual for presidential candidates to appear on evening comedy shows: Huckabee announced his bid on the Colbert Report, and Edwards announced on the Daily show. Candidates have long been a fixture on Letterman and Leno. The one exception, of course, has been President Bush, who has been reluctant to expose himself to face-to-face criticism and teasing, but thats besides the point.

Leno went right after Hillary's biggest campaign themes in a pseudo good-natured barrage that ended up making Clinton look silly and ineffectual. This included playing the "Rocky" theme when Hillary came to the stage, and joking about her looking sleepy after answering the phone at 3:00 AM every morning.

What was surprising about Hillary's appearance was that she didn't help matters, joking right away that she was "so worried [she] wasn't going to make it. I was pinned down by sniper fire."

Directly referencing, of course, her recently exposed lies about being fired on during her First Lady visit to Bosnia.

Now, self-deprecating humor is all well and fine, and we are not claiming that Presidential candidates need to be complete bores, but there is such a thing as humility and good grace, and this joke really went over the line.

Ever since this lie came to the publics attention, it has never been adequately explained or apologized for. It was a straight-up deception: she claimed she had been fired on in a war zone, concocted a whole series of events in fact, and none of it EVER happened! It wasn't a misstatement, it wasn't bad memory or just being tired, it was complete fabrication, something that even in the honesty deprived world of Washington is still out of bounds. It wasn't even something that was said once in a book and then forgotten, this was a line that she repeated in her campaign speeches up until it was exposed. Instead of acknowledging this and apologizing, she shrugged this off and made some excuse about having a bad memory.

And now she is joking about it on Leno, while still asking the American people to trust in her judgment to be Commander in Chief?

What was made clear by this joke was that Hillary Clinton does not put much stock in honesty or humility, and that being caught in an outright lie doesn't bother her.

One last thought: a few years back, at the White House Correspondents Dinner, President Bush showed some slides and joked about not being able to find weapons of mass destruction. It was actually a funny joke, but it was troubling, because it showed a blatant disregard for the human suffering caused by his war. In the same way, Clinton's latest statements show an equal disregard for the truth, and this, maybe more than anything else has made her unfit to hold our nation's highest office.

Daily Roundup: April 3, 2008

noreply@blogger.com (Great Zaganza) — Fri, 04 Apr 2008 03:05:00 +0000

Too much to do today, so I didn't have time to post some of these as full articles, but frankly you are not missing much. The trend has not been disrupted: good news for Obama, bad for Hil, and McCain is struggling to keep his face in the paper. Heres the goods:

Hillary is now claiming she never told Bill Richardson that Obama can not win the general election. Apparently Hillary feels that Bill misquoted her, and that he did not hear the end of her sentence: "If I have anything to do with it."

Air America has suspended Randi Rhodes for calling Hillary Clinton and Geraldine Ferraro "whores" at an unbroadcasted event. In all seriousness, we at GZ support an artists right of free expression, and we vehemently disagree with Air America's decision to suspend Randi over comments that were not broadcast on the Air. That being said, since Marc Maron and Al Franken left, I didn't even know AA was still on the air.

John McCain has refused Secret Service protection. Reports say that when agents showed up to assist the Senator's security team he told them to "Get off my lawn!!!"

John Edwards will not seek, nor will he accept a nomination for VP. No big shock here, after all dude has "been there" and "done that." Our prediction: Attorney General.

Republicans say that they will be able to beat Obama. I am shocked. Shocked, I tell you, at this bold and unexpected claim.

Speaking of Barack, it looks like the Senator can count on the support of former President Jimmy Carter. Its unclear how this will actually benefit Obama, but hey... it couldn't hurt, right?

Some strategists think Obama is taking a big risk spending so much and putting so much effort into Pennsylvania. No jokes here, this is the same sort of careful political pseudo-strategy that has kept the Democrats on defense for the last 14 years. Recent polls are clear: the gamble is working.

Speaking of which, Obama is reporting raising 40 million dollars in March, twice as much as Hillary in the same amount of time. He is now nearing the all time record set by George W. Bush. It must be nice to have rich friends.

Obama supporters apparently stole away a group of students waiting to hear Bill Clinton speak at a recent rally by giving them free Dave Matthews tickets. I dont know what is more surprising, that Obama volunteers are that creative, or that anyone actually listens to Dave Matthews anymore.

Polling Roundup:

InsiderAdvantage

Pennsylvania
Nomination Matchup: Clinton 45, Obama 43

*note* This is the second poll in a row (following up yesterday's Rasmussen) showing that Obama has closed the gap in Pennsylvania and is not statistically tied with Clinton. HUGE news for the Obama campaign.

Rasmussen Reports

National
Nomination Matchup: Obama 46, Clinton 43
General Election Matchup: McCain 48, Obama 41... McCain 47, Clinton 42

Favorable / Unfavorable
McCain: 57 / 40
Clinton: 46 / 52
Obama: 50 / 48

Gallup Poll

National
Nomination Matchup: Obama 49, Clinton 46
General Election Matchup: McCain 46, Obama 45... McCain 47, Clinton 45

McLaughlin & Associates

Minnesota
Coleman 46, Franken 40
*note* This is a Republican polling firm, so adjust these numbers accordingly. This means that Al is in striking distance of Norm Coleman, something that is going to make the NRSC very uncomfortable.

Research 2000

Indiana
Nomination Matchup: Clinton 49, Obama 46

*note* Indiana is another must-win primary for Clinton (along with Pennsylvania) so close polling numbers this early in the game are ill tidings for Hil.

Elected Superdelegate Count: A Tie

noreply@blogger.com (Great Zaganza) — Thu, 03 Apr 2008 17:39:00 +0000

Bloomberg News has reported that the newest rash of Superdelegate Obama endorsements means that the Illinois Senator has pulled even with Presidential Challenger Hillary Clinton in pledged support from the coveted Super Delegates (Party Leaders and Elected Officials who are able to vote for either candidate regardless of primary results, and whose support will be necessary to gain the nomination).

This serves to undercut Hillary's final chance to wrap up the nomination: a mass exodus of Superdelegates towards her camp when she wins big in the remaining primaries.

This, accompanied by recent polls showing Obama closing the gap, or even leading in PA, as well as dominating nationally, means that Clinton's final chances may be slipping away.

Daily Roundup: April 2, 2008

noreply@blogger.com (Great Zaganza) — Thu, 03 Apr 2008 01:12:00 +0000

Quite a bit of news today, so lets get right down to it boppers.

Hillary reportedly told Bill Richardson that he should endorse her because Obama can't win the general election. Then again, she also thought she could push through healthcare reform, easily win the Democratic nomination, and get away with dressing like a Star Trek alien in pantsuits.

The Clinton campaign has also released a new 3AM ad, this time focusing on the economy and attacking John McCain. This tactic (ignoring your direct competition to focus on someone else) can be effective, but usually only when used by the front runner. With Hil, it kind of just looks like wishful thinking.

Meanwhile, Bill apparently went off on some delegates when one of them referenced Carville's recent "Judas" remark referring to Governor Richardson. Bill is getting a little too feisty lately, I wonder if she is going to have him fixed before he goes off and actually bites someone.

Obama has picked up the endorsement of popular former Indiana Representative Lee Hamilton. Hamilton is famous for both his work on the 9/11 commission and his righteous mustache.

Apparently lil Obama is getting tired on the campaign trail, and snapped at a photo seeker, accusing him of wanting to sell the photo on eBay, and then sulkily agreeing to a picture while refusing to smile because the man had annoyed the Senator. The whole incident was captured on video. Some are asking if this was unbecoming of a Presidential candidate but we have a better question: who would buy a picture of Barack Obama and some dude on eBay?

Slate's Hillary Clinton deathwatch now puts her chances of winning the Democratic nomination at 9.9 percent. Missed it by *that* much.

It's not campaign news, but it may come up as the story gets bigger. It turns out a DOJ attorney may have been fired because she was gay. Maybe she should have clarified that she was actually gay for freedom.

An upside to this "Bataan death march" of a primary season is that it is motiving and mobilizing a great deal of Democrats. Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Connecticut are all seeing massive increases in Democrat voter registration.

Karl Rove claims that Obama misquoted him in his first book "Dreams From My Father." Obama wrote that Karl Rove (and others) say that America is a Christian nation, a charge that Rove denies. Based on our extremely brief and half hearted research we have been unable to find a direct quote on the part of Karl Rove saying that America is Christian. I guess mobilizing the Christian right and leading it to take over the Republican party doesn't count.

Howard Dean is trying a new tactic with Florida and Michigan: he says he wants to seat their delegations as long as the candidates agree to a delegate selection scheme. Frankly, this was expected, as keeping the delegations out of the convention would be electoral suicide come November. One wonders how much the candidates will actually negotiate, and how much they will just stall until after a couple more primaries.

It seems like Joe Lieberman is campaigning for John McCain, as he went on Fox News and attacked Obama for being too soft on Iraq and Iran. For shame Joe, even after Al Franken made you his Vice President you turn traitor on your own (former) party.

Senator Obama has indicated that he is considering Al Gore for a high level position in his (potential) presidency. Now taking bets on when Hill will try to trump this by announcing that Bill has been tapped for Secretary of State.

John McCain watches The Hills. Nothing else to say here really. Wow.

Polling Roundup:

Public Policy Polling

Pennsylvania
Nomination Matchup: Obama 45, Clinton 43
(This is the big news of the day, and a real shocker. We are betting its a bit of an outlier, as the numbers are so drastic, but it tells the same story all the other PA polls are showing: Barack is closing the gap.)

Quinnipiac University

Pennsylvania
Nomination Matchup: Clinton 50, Obama 41
General Election Matchup: Obama 43, McCain 39... Clinton 48, McCain 40

Florida
General Election Matchup: McCain 46, Obama 37... Clinton 44, McCain 42

Ohio
General Election Matchup: Obama 43, McCain 42... Clinton 48, McCain 39

Gallup Poll

National
Nomination Matchup: Obama 49, Clinton 46
General Election Matchup: McCain 46, Obama 44... McCain 47, Clinton 45

Rasmussen

National
Nomination Matchup: Clinton 45, Obama 44
General Election Matchup: McCain 47, Obama 41... McCain 46, Clinton 42

Favorable / Unfavorable
McCain: 57 / 41
Clinton: 44 / 53
Obama: 49 / 49

Nothing else to say. I think that was plenty for one day.

Exclusive: Morale In Clinton's Camp Hits All Time Low

noreply@blogger.com (Great Zaganza) — Wed, 02 Apr 2008 19:31:00 +0000

Weeks of bad press and negative movement in the polls, combined with PPP's Pennsylvania shocker (reported earlier) have left the Clinton campaign reeling and its staffers feeling the strain.

The Great Zaganza has received some inside information that things are looking bleak around some of the field offices, and resentments are growing.

"Things are bad, they are getting worse, and no one is taking responsibility or offering a good plan to turn it around"

This sentiment is apparently not uncommon in the former frontrunner's camp, which was riding high a few months ago on a sense of destiny and entitlement.

Another source indicated that communication has been less than ideal, with intra-campaign memos reportedly acting like nothing is wrong and "victory is right around the corner." The staffers, interns, and volunteers apparently feel otherwise.

"I just don't understand how this has happened."

SHOCKER: Obama Now LEADS In PA!

noreply@blogger.com (Great Zaganza) — Wed, 02 Apr 2008 15:47:00 +0000

Public Policy Polling is reporting that Obama has come back from a 20+ point deficit in a little under a month to LEAD Hillary Clinton in the latest PA Poll 45 to 43. This follows on the heels of a Rasmussen Poll showing he had closed the gap to just 5 points, and a survey USA poll showing a 3 point movement in his direction.

We aren't quite sure what to make of this drastic movement, but we suspect it is a combination of Clinton's extremely bad press, a growing sense among Dems that this primary battle is becoming destructive, and Obama's bus tour. The more people meet the guy, the more they like him, so one cannot underestimate the power of face time.

In any case, an Obama win in PA would be earth shaking. Stay tuned for more.

Daily Roundup: April 1, 2008

noreply@blogger.com (Great Zaganza) — Wed, 02 Apr 2008 02:52:00 +0000

Happy April Fools. We were tempted to post a story on a rumor of a Clinton Independent run for the presidency, but this attempt was sidelined. It would have been a screamer though. That being the case, it's not like there were not other ways to get your April Fools fix.

In real news today, not a lot actually happened other than the usual talking heads blabbing about the same things they have been blabbing about for the last couple of months. However, the trend continues: Barack is up, Hil is down, and her exit from the race is at the forefront of all the conversations.

Even Hillary supporters (and Super Delegates!) are saying Barack is going to take this one. I wonder if this dude is going to keep his spot on the Clinton's Christmas card list?

Obama took the opportunity to work some mojo with some of his fairer constituents.

McCain is starting to answer questions a lot like Ronald Regan. Not a good thing for the man who would be our nations oldest president.

More top-tier Dems have jumped on board Dean's bandwagon and are pressing for an early solution to the primaries by getting the Super Delegates to commit to a candidate. Getting this done would not only help the party avoid months of bitter infighting, but it would also salvage Howard Dean's waning credibility as the "get things done" guy of the party. Rahm Emmanuel must be salivating.

Meanwhile, Barack has apparently decided to start the general election a bit early, and is now turning his attention to focus on McCain. This strategy, giving the appearance that your opponent has already lost, can be effective, but it can also look like hubris. Even so, this is a generally good idea.

Poll Roundup:

Gallup Poll

National
Nomination Matchup: Obama 49, Clinton 45
General Election Matchup: McCain 46, Obama 44... McCain 47, Clinton 45

Rasmussen

National
Nomination Matchup: Obama 46, Clinton 45
General Election Matchup: McCain 47, Obama 41... McCain 48, Clinton 41

Favorable / Unfavorable
McCain: 56 / 41
Clinton: 43 / 55
Obama: 47 / 50

Pennsylvania
Nomination Matchup: Clinton 47, Obama 42

SurveyUSA

Indiana
Nomination Matchup: Clinton 52, Obama 43

Pennsylvania
Nomination Matchup: Clinton 53, Obama 41 (Note: We don't buy this one. It was taken before Barack started his massive bus tour of the state and before Bob Casey announced his endorsement. While the Rasmussen poll may be a bit too close, the truth likely lies somewhere in between the two.)

Kentucky
Nomination Matchup: Clinton 58, Obama 29

Clinton Lead Disappearing In PA

noreply@blogger.com (Great Zaganza) — Tue, 01 Apr 2008 13:58:00 +0000

We predicted last week that Hil and Barack would be polling within single digits within 2 weeks, and this is exactly what has occurred.

"The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Pennsylvania shows Clinton leading Barack Obama by just five percentage points, 47% to 42%. For Clinton, that five-point edge is down from a ten-point lead a week ago, a thirteen-point lead in mid-March and a fifteen-point advantage in early March."

This comes at a time when Barack has received a string of prominent endorsements, including PA Senator Bob Casey, as well as generally good national news (accompanied by a solid lead in national poll numbers). Hil, on the other hand, has been suffering a serious barrage from not only the media and the Obama campaign, but other Democrats who feel like the time has come for her to step aside.

A close victory in PA is just as bad as an outright loss for Clinton, she needs to win by a large margin. If this trend continues, as we predict it will, she is going to have a tough time claiming that Obama cannot win the "big" states.

Daily Roundup: March 31, 2008

noreply@blogger.com (Great Zaganza) — Tue, 01 Apr 2008 04:59:00 +0000

*Editor's Note* Not a lot of minor news today... most of the big stuff was covered in our main posts. Main themes of the day: Obama's big endorsements, more media criticism of Hil, and thats about it. One minor prediction though: Obama, when speaking to a crowd about abortion, said that he has attempted to instill good morals in his daughters, but if they made a mistake he would not want to see them punished with a baby. Expect this quote to be taken out of context and used against him for the rest of the campaign.

The British newspaper The Independent has a front page article claiming America is on its way to another Great Depression. We don't have anything snarky to say here, we just hope we arent living in a barrel this time next year.

Obama almost picked up the endorsement of rapper 50 Cent, but "fiddy" was apparently too lost in the debate to understand the comparative positions on todays most important issues. Color us shocked.

Hillary's campaign is insisting, despite recent reports, that their cash flow situation is "good." Mind you, they are still far behind Obama and strapped with debt, but they are way ahead of any other Democratic candidate for President, and that has to count for something... right?

The newest game on the campaign trail is to film Chelsea Clinton being asked about her father's sex life, and then criticize her for acting offended. She is an adult and she has put herself out there on the campaign trail, but there is such a thing as decency. Bill and Hill may be acting reprehensibly lately, but this sort of thing is just tacky. Cut it out people.

Polling Roundup

Gallup

Nomination Matchup: Obama 51, Clinton 43
General Election Matchup: McCain 46, Obama 45... McCain 47, Clinton 45

*note* This is the fourth straight day Obama has held a statistically significant lead over Clinton. This hasn't happened in over a month.

Rasmussen

Nomination Matchup: Obama 46, Clinton 43
General Election Matchup: McCain 47, Obama 42... McCain 49, Clinton 40

Favorable/Unfavorable
McCain 53 / 44
Clinton 43 / 55
Obama 49 / 49

*note* Rasmussen also published a number of state GE polls, but we are not going to bother posting them. At this stage of the game they are, frankly, useless.

American Research Group

North Carolina Nomination Matchup: Obama 51, Clinton 38

Public Policy Polling

North Carolina Nomination Matchup: Obama 54, Clinton 36

Survey USA

Kentucky Nomination Matchup: Clinton 58, Obama 29

All You Ever Wanted to Know About Winning Conventions: By Karl Rove

noreply@blogger.com (Great Zaganza) — Mon, 31 Mar 2008 19:31:00 +0000

It's not very often that someone as feared, respected, reviled, and awed as Karl Rove descends (or should it be ascends?) from his resting place and graces us mere mortals with (un)holy truth.

This is just what Neo-conservative superstar Karl Rove has done with his recent Newsweek mega-article called "How To Win In A Knife Fight" outlining the strategies needed to win a contested political convention. Regardless of your feelings on the man (I know he scares the willies out of me) this is an extraordinarily good read.

Basic Breakdown:

1. Gain control of the essential committees, such as the rules, credentials, and arrangements committees.

2. Be careful about the platform. Political conventions dont usually revolve around policy platforms like they used to, but holding a floor vote on a new and contested plank is a way to cause chaos.

3. Cater to your delegates needs and have massive Lost-style dossiers on each one of them detailing all the information necessary to keep them feeling special.

4. Go into the convention with a strategy. (sort of a no-duh comment, but valid)

5. Anticipate the needs of the camera. Have the right people in the right places looking the right way and saying the right things. People are going to be watching the convention all over the country and they will need to be entertained while you shovel your political message at them. (I don't know how this relates to winning at the convention, but its certainly helpful for winning in the election)

This is how the sausage is made folks. Learn about it.

Obama's Newest Endorsement

noreply@blogger.com (Great Zaganza) — Mon, 31 Mar 2008 14:27:00 +0000

The Wall Street Journal has reported that previously neutral Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar will endorse Senator Barack Obama today. This brings the total Senatorial endorsements of Clinton and Obama to an even 14 each, with most of the recent movement with Obama.

The Journal is tying this to the "Get Behind Obama" phenomenon which we reported on earlier last week: the Democratic establishment has seemingly decided that this contest is basically over, and are now acting to end it before it hurts the Party's chances in November.

Expect more of this, and quickly.

*Editor's Note* With fellow Minnesota Senator Norm Coleman claiming to be such an independent and moderate, can we expect an Obama endorsement from him next?

Clinton Campaign Running On Fumes

noreply@blogger.com (Great Zaganza) — Mon, 31 Mar 2008 13:45:00 +0000

We reported last week on rumors that the Clinton campaign was having money troubles. Looks like those were not just idle rumors. The Politico's Kenneth Vogel reported on the situation and brought to light not just a lack of income for Clinton's rapidly degenerating campaign, but also a huge amount of debt.

"It’s not just the size of Clinton’s debts that’s noteworthy. It’s also that her unpaid bills extend beyond the realm of high-priced consultants who typically let bills slide as part of the cost of doing business with powerful clientèle whose success is linked to their own.

Some of Clinton’s biggest debts are to pollster and chief strategist Mark Penn, who’s owed $2.5 million; direct mail company MSHC Partners, which is owed $807,000; phone-banking firm Spoken Hub, which is waiting for $771,000; and ad maker Mandy Grunwald, who’s owed $467,000.

Clinton also reported debts more than one month old to a slew of apolitical businesses and organizations, large and small, in the states through which this historically expensive Democratic primary campaign has raged."

So, not only are the rumors of her cash flow problem real, but they are so bad businesses are complaining about it.

What is remarkable though is how much cash she has shelled out on Mark Penn. The guy is an effective advocate for Clinton on TV, but so far his "strategies" have consisted mainly of "pretend you already were the president," "Try to scare white southerners about race," and "just in general, campaign like a Republican." Now, I wouldn't pay 2.5 million for that, but then again I never survived sniper fire in Bosnia, so maybe I just don't understand.

Slate.com's Clinton Deathwatch

noreply@blogger.com (Great Zaganza) — Sat, 29 Mar 2008 05:07:00 +0000

Its late and we all should be sleeping, but your intrepid editor couldn't rest easy for the weekend without giving out the link to Slate.com's Clinton Campaign Deathwatch. They are judging the odds of her winning the nomination, in consideration of the news of the day/week/month.

Right now, they have her at 12%.

Daily Roundup: March 28, 2008

noreply@blogger.com (Great Zaganza) — Sat, 29 Mar 2008 04:39:00 +0000

- Obama has earned the endorsement of PA Senator Bob Casey. Hil has been parading all over PA with the Governor, so this could help Obama offset that advantage. Casey had previously said he wanted to remain neutral until the April 22nd primary, but now he is endorsing Obama in order to help "unify the party." The "get behind Obama" sentiment continues to grow.

- Likewise, DNC Chair Howard Dean is back in the spotlight trying to reassert his influence by stating that he would like to see the nomination settled by July 1st. Translation: I won't allow a brokered convention on my watch... sorry Hil.

- Bill isn't helping! Former President Clinton spent time praising John McCain to a crowd in Pennsylvania, calling him a "moderate" and saying "McCain was on the right side of issues like being against torture of enemy combatants and global warming." Did Bill forget who he was campaigning for, or has he just stopped caring. Someone needs to tell him that tradition demands we demonize the records of our political opponents, not extol them!

- McCain has sent out his first general election ad. Featured prominently in the ad is "McCain, ready on day one." Meaning: We can expect his campaign to be Hillary 2: Experience Bugaloo.

- Rush Limbaugh wont be getting indicted any time soon for voter fraud in Ohio. Aw shucks, and here we were all worried for the big fat idiot.

- Democrat strategist and Skeletor impersonator James Carville is now claiming that Bill Richardson had promised the Clinton campaign his endorsement long before he gave it to the Obama campaign. I wonder what caused Bill to change his mind? Remember, no one likes to root for a losing team. Unless you live in Chicago.

- Bush says the recent upsurge in violence in Iraq is a "Defining Moment." Define FUBAR.

Poll Roundup:

Gallup
Nomination Matchup
Obama 50
Clinton 42
Movement: Obama +2, Clinton -2

ARG
Pennsylvania Nomination Matchup
Clinton 51%
Obama 39%
Movement: Clinton +1, Obama -2

Insider Advantage
North Carolina Nomination Matchup
Barack Obama (49%)
Hillary Clinton (34%)
Undecided (17%)

Survey USA
National Favorable/Unfavorable
Obama: 38 / 40
Clinton: 35 / 42
McCain 34 / 39
Bush: 22 / 61
Cheney: 15 / 55

Clinton's Money Woes

noreply@blogger.com (Great Zaganza) — Fri, 28 Mar 2008 18:54:00 +0000

The Chicago Sun Times is reporting, via Columnist and cartoon villain sound-alike Michael Sneed, that Hillary's luckless campaign is hurtling towards a new roadblock: finances. The money has slowed down and campaign debts have been mounting. If this keeps up, and she can't compete financially with Obama, this race may be over long before Dean's July 1st deadline.

A couple of points here:

- Even the most ardent Hillary supporters are going to think twice before dipping deep into their pockets if they don't think she has a real chance of winning. All of this negative news lately, as well as the calls of high profile Dems for her to quit the race must have been playing havoc on her fund raising efforts.

- Clinton has already lent her campaign millions of her own dollars. This is unlikely to occur twice.

- If the cash runs out the first thing to be cut is staffers salaries. In the short term this will be fine, but if it lasts over a month morale will drop and some of the lower folks will start thinking seriously about leaving. This would take the backbone out of her efforts.

- Sneed also reports that Edwards may be leaning towards a Clinton endorsement, but we here at GZ don't buy it. Not because Edwards has so much love for Obama, but rather because endorsing Hillary at this point would be akin to wasting political capital. If Edwards wants to secure a roll as a party elder he can't afford to make himself irrelevant.

No Shit, Condi.

noreply@blogger.com (Great Zaganza) — Fri, 28 Mar 2008 15:04:00 +0000

So, a week ago we have Barack Obama delivering what is likely a historical speech on the modern race conflict in America. It was subtle and nuanced, but ultimately successful in bringing up the issues that needed to be said, and helped put in context the 30-second clips of Reverend Wright circulating on the news.

Today, in contrast, we have Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. As she struggles to stay relevant (and may be trying to position herself for a VP slot) by shouting to the American public "Hey! Remember, I'm Black tooooo!"

She has given an interview to the Washington Times giving her expert opinion that race is a problem in the USA because of slavery.

But wait, there's more!

Apparently because of slavery Blacks did not have the same head start as Whites, and our history since has been a struggle to both overcome the stigma of slavery and catch up to the advantages whites have had.

Wow Condi, really?

The real message here: Republicans have something to say about race too, even if it is childishly obvious and completely pointless.