The Back Heel

These Guys Make the BCS Look Fair

2009-12-04T08:58:00.000-06:00

Today is the World Cup Draw, where we learn possibly how well our great nation's summer could go. As always FIFA had to change the seeding formula, so all the excel spreadsheets and math I did was a complete waste of time.

World Cup Qualifying is the only competition I have ever seen where they let the teams play out the games, have all the teams qualify, and then they decide who the best teams without anyone knowing how they are going to determine who the best seven nations are. At least the BCS and college football have the decency to tell the mid-majors they are shit out of luck unless hell freezes over.

So what do I think will happen today? First off I don't think the draw is rigid, but the results sometimes can make you think otherwise. FIFA has always wanted the host to make into the knockout stage, which is why South Africa is seeded for this World Cup. I feel that South Africa, while potentially getting a difficult group, will get an easy group that will hopefully get them into the final 16. Look for something like:

Group A
South Africa
Honduras
Chile
Switzerland

Now for the USA. It does not look to promising, definitely want to hope for Group A with South Africa, but we won't be that lucky. If not drawn in to South Africa's group then the difficulty will be medium to extremely hard.

I expect something like this, which will be brutal.

Germany
USA
Paraguay
Greece

If all this drama is not enough to get you to watch a draw that could be done in 15 minutes dragged out to 3 hours, then you should not be reading this blog, and all I can say is Charlize Theron.

Why We All Can't Get Along

2009-12-01T15:45:00.002-06:00

Talks for a new Collective Barging Agreement are currently on going between the MLS owners and the MLS Players Union. The current CBA will expire in January 31, 2010 and some concern has recently been put on these talks, as the MLSPU has hinted at a strike could be possible.

Two of the hot topics in the on-going negotiations are guaranteed contracts and club option clauses. Contracts in MLS are signed and paid by the league (minus parts of the DP contracts), and they are set up under the current CBA and league rules.

Almost all of the player contracts in MLS are not guaranteed contracts. This is an obvious problem for the players of the league. For instance if a MLS player gets hurt for a long period of time, the club can cancel his contract and find another healthy player to take his spot on the roster. The original player is now injured and unemployed. MLS owners have the right to cancel player contracts, but the players themselves cannot cancel their own contract. This is definitely hypocritical when looked at from the view of the Players Union. The MLS owners are in a very tough position as well, they are on the hook if the league is profitable or not profitable. This clause helps them keep the roster size of the teams lower and to not have to continue paying out bad contracts that they could have signed in the past. Financial Stability is the most important factor in the growth of MLS right now. It is not good for the current players' pockets, but it is attracting good ownership groups for the league and keeping some of the older ownership groups of the league from losing too much money.

Club option clauses are another tough puzzle for the young soccer league as well. In MLS when a player's contract expires, their MLS rights are still owned by the team that their contract expired with. This eliminates free agency within MLS and therefore stops a bidding war for an MLS player’s services without its original club getting something in return. A perfect example is Matt Pickens, who left the Chicago Fire in 2008 to join Queens Park Rangers of the English Championship. When his contract was not extended or renewed, he became a free agent everywhere expect MLS. Colorado was interested in Matt Pickens and to offer something to the Fire in return for his rights. In return the Fire was able to swap second round picks and gain an allocation.

This rule of club option clauses also can drive MLS players to leave the league and go elsewhere for more money. Yuri Movsisyan signed a pre-contract with the Danish club Randers, before his contract expired in MLS. If he wanted to stay in MLS he would have had to renegotiate with the league and RSL only for a new contract. So to create demand for his services he, like many other former MLS players, had to look to Europe to receive the raise that they thought was sufficient. This is another way for the league to stay financial stable and keep some parody in the league, by not allowing the teams to be competing against each other for player services without something in return.

What are your thoughts on this issue? Do you side with the owners or the players union?

Christmas Comes Late This Year

2009-12-01T09:48:00.001-06:00

Who doesn't want to see Mark Rogondino's face in HD? Well too bad, come next year you soccer lovers won't have a choice.

On 1/1/2010 FSC is scheduled to be broadcasting select programming in high definition. According to their website, the UEFA Champions League, Barclays Premier League and Serie A are to be shown in HD. Hopefully we will be able to see Major League Soccer and possibly the US Open Cup as well in HD, but as of now it will be impossible to have the full CONCACAF Champions League in a HD format. I also would expect Fox Soccer Report, Sky Sports News, and Fox Football Fone In to be shown in High Definition.

For fans of La Liga and the German Bundesliga, GolTV also plans to broadcast select programming in HD sometime this year. Hopefully all of the major satellite/cable providers will pick up the new soccer HD channels when they debut next year. Finally, all those Sylvania commercials on FSC will be right about watching the game in beautiful high definition on FSC.

Coming Attractions

2009-11-30T22:58:00.000-06:00

With many things to write about in the next couple days, here is a small preview of the coming attractions.

New Supporters Shield Design
The 2010 FIFA World Cup Draw
More Posts on the History of Soccer in America
My Book Shelf (My reviews of soccer/sport-specific books)
The new NASL

Hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving Break.

Philly Meet Your Team

2009-11-25T15:33:00.002-06:00

* Indicates that player does not count as an International

With the ten players selected, the Union has a Team Salary of $646,700 (the Union has the right to renegotiate contracts) and only 3 players that will count as Internationals. The method Nowak used in the expansion draft is to select players to build for the future, an average age of 25.4 years, and to leave some money around to sign maybe a DP (possibly free agent Ebi Smoilarek) and/or other marquee players.

If Nowak wanted instant success he could have signed more established veterans like Frankie Hedjuk, Amado Guevara, and Pat Onstad, but he would have risked using those picks on players that are only going to be playing in the league for a couple more years at best and also spending more money on them. This group Coach Nowak has a good group of young talent with a couple of veterans they can learn from. The low salaries of most of these players will also give Philly more cap room to sign other players as the 2010 season nears.

124 Years Ago Today...A Rivalry Started

2009-11-25T09:52:00.002-06:00

The American Football Association gathered together local soccer players of the New Jersey area to create our first national team. The team played on this day 124 years ago on Clark Field against the Canadian National Team. The Americans lost 1-0 to the Canadians on that day, but would avenge the lost a year later 3-2.

The game is considered a huge moment in American and Canadian soccer history, but is not considered to be the first international game of either the United States Soccer Federation or the Canadian Soccer Association, the USSF was founded in 1913 and the CSA in 1912. According to the USSF, our first international game was in Stockholm, Sweden in 1916, where the Americans were victorious 3-2. The CSA also won their first official match at Brisbane, Australia; 3-2 in 1924.

Was Landon jinxed by the BS Report?

2009-11-23T09:25:00.001-06:00

Last night, the LA Galaxy captain stepped up to take the fourth penalty kick for the LA Galaxy. Landon did his usually routine over the ball before backing up to take his shot. According to the broadcast team, Landon converted on his last 12 penalties and even against Nick Rimando this was surely going to be 13.

As he approached the ball, Rimando moved to the shooter's right (Landon's preferred area), Landon looked to strike it down the middle, but instead it went sailing over the bar.

Now let’s go back to Thursday, when the podcast interview that Landon did with Bill Simmons aired. During the podcast they converse about his penalty-kick taking history and experiences (about the 4:21 mark).

Here are some quotes from the podcast:

LD - "If he goes early, then it makes it easy, cause I can go to the other side. If they kind of hesitate, then you just want to hit it hard in a spot that is hard for him to get to... and so in the last second when you change your mind like that, all I'm doing is just trying to get it somewhere the other way, cause I know he isn't going to get to it..."

BS- "So that's when it could be dangerous, when at the last second you change your mind and that's how it ends up sailing over the crossbar, sometimes, for the other guys not you..."

It is unfortunate that Landon missed one of the most important penalties in his life, but the conversation that he had with Bill Simmons makes you think that he could have been jinxed or cursed on this penalty kick. It’s possible that it was bad luck, but it also possible that Nick Rimando heard the podcast himself and was given an advantage over Donovan. There is no doubt that Rimando studied Landon's penalty kicks the most out of the Galaxy club, but additionally this podcast could have given him some more insights into his penalty-taking.

Link to the Podcast: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/simmons/index

How the Kit Could Be Better

2009-11-21T10:39:00.000-06:00

I like the design of the jersey and its influence from the 1950s kit. But I think it could be better and here is how I would change it.

Home Kit

Away Kit

Final Rankings for the 2010 FIFA World Cup

2009-11-20T07:11:00.001-06:00

With the last FIFA World Rankings in today, we can calculate the final #1 seeds.
For info on the formula go here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_FIFA_World_Cup_seeding

2010 USA World Cup Kit Leaked?

2009-11-19T15:41:00.001-06:00

What do you think? Some definite inspiration from the 1950 USA Kit.

The 20th Anniversary of the Goal Heard Round the World

2009-11-19T09:51:00.003-06:00

Watch here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymQ-fIwVnV8#watch-main-area

Quite possibly the most important moment in the history of American soccer, turns 20 today. Bad haircuts and short shorts cannot take away from the greatness of this game. Was Caliguri's shot really that good? Was it the sun in the T&T keeper's eyes? Was it...who gives a shit it was our first qualification for the World Cup in 40 years. This game was so important for both countries, obviously because T&T have never qualified for a world cup and the 40-year drought for the States. The sold -out National Stadium in Port-of-Spain provided that setting with 30,000 T&T fans all wearing red. The day of the game, the T&T government decided to make the next day a national holiday no matter the outcome of the game. So here to the US team on that day, to Paul Caliguri putting the Yanks threw with a spectacular goal (unlike the cheating French), and to T&T have a happy holiday tomorrow.

2010 FIFA World Cup #1 Seeds as of now

2009-11-18T19:22:00.005-06:00

Here is a preview of the 2010 FIFA World Cup rankings; if they use the same system for determining the #1 seeds as in 2006. The last world rankings come out in 2 days (Nov. 20th) so I have used the October rankings to get a good picture for what the rankings will look like. I will update this on November 20th to get the final rankings. Your #1 seeds are in bold.

For info on the formula go here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_FIFA_World_Cup_seeding

Please click on the spreadsheet to enlarge, and a huge thank you to u75 of the Unprofessional Foul for helping to get the spreadsheet on the blog.

Winning vs. Developing, The American Striker's Problem with MLS

2009-11-17T14:13:00.001-06:00

MLS clubs are always looking for that special player that can come in, score/create goals and lead their club to win the MLS Cup. The clubs are not to blame for trying to find a player that can win games and hopefully in addition attract more fans to the club.

A problem that has arose from this formula for winning is that most of the players that are brought in are either foreign players or older Americans. Of the fifteen clubs in MLS, only 7 regularly started an American striker under the age of 33(McBride is 37 and Twelleman is not included due to his long injury) this year. Young American strikers are seeing this trend which is leading them to Europe or the a midfield role.

DC United is a great example, which has seen MLS legend Jaime Moreno and former MLS MVP Lucillano Emilio dominate the two spots up top for the last couple seasons. This duo has created many goals for United and because their excellent play Chris Pointus and Santino Quaranta have been moved to the midfield. Also, on DC United's website, all of its forward listed are from foreign countries. This move to the midfield has been seen in other clubs as well, with Chris Rofle, Steve Zakuani, Dane Richards, Jacob Peterson, and Shea Salinas.

Collegiate strikers are also passing on MLS for a chance to develop their skills in Europe. Charlie Davies, Marcus Tracy, Mike Grella, Kamani Hill, and Joseph Lapira have all crossed the pond for usually more money and hopefully developing at the striker position. But, Davies was the only one of the bunch that was seeing meaningful playing time.

This is a tough predicament that the MLS clubs and US Soccer are in. MLS head coaches cannot always wait to develop players at the striker role, especially when the owners and fans are demanding wins. Selling tickets is still the lifeblood of MLS and signing players like Blanco, Emilio, and Montero make the league more exciting and entertaining. MLS and US Soccer must find a better way to develop young Americans at the striker role while continuing to make the league more profitable.

Can Ireland and Bosnia really help us?

2009-11-13T12:03:00.002-06:00

Using the same formula that FIFA used for the 2006 World Cup (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_FIFA_World_Cup_seeding), I have the United States ranked 9th of the 23 teams that have qualified for the 2010 World Cup.

1. Brazil        59.7
2. Germany   59.3
3. Italy          56.7
4. Spain        56.0
5. England    52.3
6. Argentina 49.7
7. Holland     43.7
8. Mexico     42.0
9. USA         38.0
*The October 2009 ranking is used until the November 2009 is released.
*South Africa will be ranked, and that will drop the US actually to #10.

There are 41 teams still alive or that have qualified for the World Cup. This is how the rankings look with all those countries that are still available.

1. Brazil       68.7
2. Germany 68.3
3. Italy         65.7
4. Spain       65.0
5. England    60.3
6. Argentina 58.7
7. France     57.7
8. Portugal   56.0
9. Holland    52.0
10. Mexico 45.3
11. USA      42.7
*The October 2009 ranking is used until the November 2009 is released.
*South Africa will be ranked, and that will drop the US actually to #12.

With the point difference from Holland (the current last spot) to the USA, the chance of being seeded looks slim to none. If there is any chance to be seeded, France and Portugal cannot qualify, the USA must win the next two games, and Holland must lose their next two games (@ Italy and Paraguay at home). Unless FIFA changes the seeding formula, the USMNT looks very unlikely to be seeded.

A Specific Home Field Advantage

2009-11-13T09:39:00.000-06:00

Soccer-specific stadiums (SSS) are a very important to MLS by providing venues for a better game-day experience and helping to make the league more profitable, but do they help teams win games? Recently I compared the 2009 regular season results of teams with a SSS against the teams without a SSS to see if there indeed were any trends.

Teams with a SSS
Total home wins = 63
Total home loses = 22
Total home ties = 35

Winning % = 52.5%
Losing% = 18.3%
Points/Game = 1.87

Teams without a SSS
Total home wins = 44
Total home loses = 27
Total home ties = 33

Winning % = 42.3%
Losing % = 25.96%
Points/Game = 1.59

There is definitely a trend of better home results for teams with a SSS. The teams with a SSS won 10% more of their home games and lost 7.5% less home games. Also teams with a SSS averaged 1.87 points a game at home while teams not having a SSS only average 1.59 points a game at home. The clubs with a SSS average 28 points (1.87*15) at home and the clubs without only 24(1.59*15). With the parity of MLS, 4 points can mean getting to the playoffs (5 teams with a SSS, 3 without a SSS) or having a longer off-season (3 teams with a SSS, 4 without a SSS).

Best Home Field Record = Real Salt Lake 2.13 Points/Game
Worst Home Field Record = Kansas City 1.07 Points/Game

Not Really Promotion, but no Relegation

2009-11-12T16:31:00.003-06:00

The formation of a new American soccer league, composed of former USL First Division teams, has received much attention in the recent weeks. This attention is driven by what purpose the league will have and who it will be affiliated with. The group of owners, which broke away from USL-1, held talks with MLS and have applied to US Soccer to be sanctioned as a Division 2 league. The league will apply to be a Division 1 league in Canada. Both of these Divisions (2nd in America and 1st in Canada) are currently held by the USL First Division.

So what does all this mean?

First with the sanctions, the USSF and CSA are unlikely to give them the sole 2nd or 1st Division sanction because this is a new league. As of now there are only 7 teams in the new league, with Vancouver heading to MLS in 2010 and Montreal heavily rumored to follow. This would leave only 5 teams (if there is no expansion, which is planned), making it more likely that they will give them the same sanction as USL-1, instead of taking a chance with the new league and knocking USL-1 down a division.

Second is the promotion/relegation rumors, MLS are not going to allow promotion and relegation, like in other countries, to happen here in the near future. The league is set up with expansion fees and a single entity structure so it is hard to see the current owners passing a new league law that could see them drop to a second division or MLS-2, after paying $40 million to be in MLS. Where promotion could happen with these teams is not really promotion. It will the same story like we saw with Seattle, and are going to see with Vancouver and Portland; where the new owners come in to these teams and there is a soccer-specific stadium in the works. Then the MLS owners accept them as a new expansion team and the team leaves their current league.

Third, how will the new league be involved with MLS? If the new league is involved with MLS in anyway MLS will need a direct benefit. One problem MLS has had in the past is getting games for developmental and non-first team members of their clubs. The reverse division had its time but was axed by MLS last season and a new system is needed to be implemented. This is where the new league could help MLS and help develop players that are not getting regular time for their MLS club. These players would be loaned out or dropped down to the new league sort of in the way we see with the NBA, NHL, and MLB. It would benefit MLS by having players developed that usually are not even on the bench and the new league would probably only have to pay a portion of the contract which would also keep cost down for them.