After a summer that was equal parts tumultuous and calm, the former due to the unfamiliarity of a managerial change and the off field shenanigans of the last week and the latter due to getting our transfer business done early, Arsenal head into a new season with much less certainty than previous years. That could be good, that could be bad, but one thing is for sure – it makes predictions a whole lot harder. Still….

Looking at the squad, some clear gaps have been filled – Torreira is an exciting new addition in midfield, there is competition for Cech and a mix of experience and youth at the back – but a lot depends on how well they settle, how the existing players adjust to Emery’s methods, and how effective those methods are over a long season.

The team looks strong on paper, with centre half being the area causing most concern, especially with Koscielny out long term. There’s a certain amount of depth across the board, but what is most intriguing is that the first team does not pick itself. Who starts in goal? Centre half? How do Lacazette and Aubameyang fit together?

Short answer – no-one knows, and after the predictability of the latter Wenger years that is exciting in itself. Time will tell whether that excitement leads to thrills or regret. In the meantime, let’s make some predictions!

Premier League Top Six

1. Man City, 2. Liverpool, 3. Spurs, 4. Arsenal, 5. Man United, 6. Chelsea

I can’t see past Man City to retain their title, I really can’t. The only real hope for the chasing pack is that their motivation dips after such an incredible season, and there is evidence behind that – no team has retained the league title since Man United ten years ago – but I think they still have too much.

Liverpool have strengthened well and should finish second, no matter how many pundits think (for the millionth time) that this will be their year. Behind that, it gets a lot closer.

The North London race will be tighter this year, but one advantage Spurs have after their lack of transfer activity is……their lack of transfer activity. They’ve retained players as well as not purchased, so they should hit the ground running. On the other hand, Arsenal will be a work in progress under Emery and I expect Spurs to win the battle to third this year. But, and this is a big but – the aim has to be to make this the last year that happens. North London is red, after all.

Man United are hard to predict – excellent personnel but Mourinho is into his dreaded third season and showing his usual grumpiness – I’d be surprised to see him still there at the start of next season. While I hope for a spectacular implosion as we saw at Chelsea, I think they’ll have enough to remain above his former club, who will struggle for goals.

Other teams to watch

Everton, Fulham

Everton strengthened well at the end of the window and should be a totally different prospect under Silva. They might challenge for the top six if one of those clubs has a poor season. Likewise, Fulham spent like an established top ten team – they will be fascinating to watch.

Relegated

Huddersfield, Cardiff, Watford

Part of me wants Cardiff to do well. The other part looks at Neil Warnock and wants him to have a miserable season.

Arsenal Player of the Season

Mesut Ozil

It’s time. Coming off being blamed for Germany’s abysmal World Cup, and subsequently retiring from international football, there’s a feeling that Arsenal still hasn’t seen the best of Ozil. With a new manager building his team around him, a little bit of anger in him will do no harm, and I think he could star.

Elsewhere, Mkhitaryan could step up under Emery – with a team pressing around him he could find himself in pockets of space from which to do serious damage. And Aubameyang is a genuine Golden Boot contender.

Big Season For…

Bellerin, Mustafi, Xhaka

Bellerin and Mustafi are in similar positions – both had largely disappointing campaigns marked by individual errors, and both have doubts over them going into this campaign. For Bellerin, it surrounds his fitness and pace – he seems to have lost a yard and at his tender age that is a concern – and for Mustafi, it is whether his flaws can be ironed out by a new manager.

Granit Xhaka is an interesting one. I’ve gone on record before in saying that he is someone I’d love to see under new guidance, and I expect big things this year. He has the tools – he is technically excellent, a good passer and has a rocket shot – but he has issues with concentration and awareness that drifted under Wenger’s tutelage. In my opinion those can be resolved, and if they are there is a serious player there. How he and Torreira fit into the same team is another question.

Other Competitions

While a cup run would be a welcome distraction, and the Europa League is one Emery knows how to win having done so three times with Sevilla, this season is all about the bread and butter of the league, and anything else is a bonus. Sort out the abysmal away form, get into that top four and move forward.

The Emery Factor

This is the biggest unknown of the lot – how will the players respond to Emery’s high-energy, pressing demands? How will he cope with a league with no ‘rest weeks’ (remember that in both Spain and France, the big clubs can play at 80% many weeks and still win)? Can he wind up Jose Mourinho with subtle digs and win us all over?

He’ll need patience. Man City is a fearsome opener and Arsenal are rightly strong underdogs for that game. A draw against Chelsea isn’t a bad result so we could easily have one point or none after two games, and if that happens, everyone has to stay calm. The press won’t, the fans must.

Final Thoughts

I’m cautiously optimistic but I suspect the overriding word that will ultimately describe this season is ‘transitional‘. That’s not a dirty word – Man United would have loved transitional instead of the more cutting descriptions of the Moyes tenure, but expectations can’t be set too high. Last season we finished 37 points off the top (32 from the bottom), 12 from the top four, and miles behind Spurs. Progression, even gradual, is all we should ask for.

The BBC 10 o’clock news has a slot towards the end for a sports bulletin, roughly three minutes long. That isn’t a lot of time, and coverage is usually the verbal version of bullet points – short, snappy, blink and you miss it.

Not tonight. Instead of a series of twenty second headlines, the timeslot was entirely given over to the Arsene Wenger obituary. Or at least that was how it seemed. Reflections on his career, from the ‘Arsene who?‘ introductions, through Bergkamp, Henry, the Invincibles and the recent FA Cup triumphs before ending with the Bayern thrashing. Three minutes to cover twenty years isn’t much, so it was still a speedy retrospective, but anyone missing the opening few seconds could be forgiven for thinking the man had died. Or at the very least abruptly walked away from football.

What brought all this on? One single quote, from the morning press conference:

“No matter what happens I will manage for another season. Whether it’s here or somewhere else, that is for sure”

We all know that the press like to take a single sentence soundbite and create a story out of it (and in fairness, they would have no chance of filling a 24 hour ‘news’ cycle if they didn’t) but this is ridiculous. This is Wenger simply saying ‘I’m not retiring‘ and was in direct response to a question asking him whether he ever got tired of it all and considered packing it in. Essentially, he just said ‘no‘.

Yet all day, this single sentence has been taken as a hint that he will move on at the end of the season. Don’t get me wrong, I think that is very possible, but I cannot for the life of me see how this sentence is supposed to be the ultimate signal. Just prior to this question, he had said that he was yet to make a decision on his Arsenal future, and would do so in the spring. That is no different to previous contracts – he always leaves it late to decide and he always bats away such lines of questioning in the meantime.

So, to sum up, he hasn’t made a decision on his Arsenal future yet, he will do so in the same timeframe as he always has, and he isn’t so fed up of management that he wants to retire yet.

So where is the news story from all this?

I don’t understand why anyone expected any different. Arsene Wenger, for all his flaws, is a considered man. He isn’t going to make a decision on his future based on the emotional fallout from any single football match. The picture is much bigger for him than that, more so than it could be for any of us. The straw that breaks our back is never the same one that will break his.

So anyone expecting him to resign (and the enlarged press presence seemed to suggest some considered this a possibility) or indicate that he was going to was, frankly, deluded. And if his mind is going the other way, he is smart enough to know that now would be a very bad time to say he plans to stay. That left one option – the politician’s approach – calmly answer questions, saying much without saying much at all. He is well practised at handling the press, and giving them nothing is something he can do whenever he wishes.

He gave them nothing, and yet they still created a story that simply doesn’t exist. The sharks are circling (which was evident by every one of the questions put to him this morning), and we can all understand why that is the case. Wenger does too, and despite multiple attempts to get him to say that the coverage of him has been unfair, he refused. He knew that biting would add to the ‘senile old man‘ angle that many are leaning towards right now, unfairly in my view. I don’t think it is unreasonable to be seriously questioning his future, and I can see all the arguments for this summer being one of change. But that has limits, and when some try to paint him as an old crackpot, and get away with it because he won’t be goaded, I think a line is crossed.

Ultimately, the decision will be made based on a number of factors, and fan unrest will certainly play into that. But we are not any wiser on his future than we were yesterday, no matter how many career obituaries are hastily thrown together.

….which wasn’t like that at all.

We all saw that coming, to some extent. Going into the opening day of the season with none of last season’s senior centre halves was a recipe for disaster, and while injuries are unfortunate (although seriously, how are we not planning for them by now?), some came so long ago that we cannot claim to have been caught out at the eleventh hour. Koscielny was known to be unavailable six weeks ago due to France’s progression in the Euros, and Per’s injury was even further back. Gabriel is the only recent victim, but we’ve had enough ripple effects from a spate of injuries in one area to know that this can happen. Less players available = more minutes for each of the remaining legs = higher chance of injury. We’ve been here before.

So we went into a tough opener with Chambers and Holding as our raw pairing, and I don’t attach any blame to either. Both need seniority around them to reach their clear potential, but days like this are painful lessons that can seriously damage their progress. It is all very well saying that they need to be mentally strong and overcome such obstacles, but I think that oversimplifies things, especially when Wenger had a rare post-match slip and labelled them too inexperienced to cope. I’m sure he intended it as an excuse for them but it was clumsily put, and only served to rile those who were already irritated by what they had seen.

It could have been so much better. We did, after all, score three times against a Liverpool side that are on the rise. Part of our success was due to their defence being almost as weak as ours (hello, Moreno), but that just adds to the frustration – they were there for the taking but we blew it. We weren’t great in the 90 minutes, but it is hard to counter the argument that we shot ourselves in the foot before we even set foot on the field.

All this ratchets up the pressure on Wenger for the rest of the month. Next up is a trip to champions Leicester, who will be looking to bounce back from their own opening day defeat, but they, like Liverpool, have the players to open us up, so we have to improve else we’ll be looking up as the rest race away. Chances are that we won’t have anyone back by then – perhaps a couple of the Euro contingent could be on the bench – and any new signing (stop laughing at the back) would have to be bedded in, so it is an awkward situation all round. With such a tough start to the season, we could not afford our usual summer inertia and we’re seeing the results of it already.

By the end of the month, the squad is likely to be in better shape – Ozil, Koscielny and Giroud will make a huge difference, as will a sharpening of those who started yesterday. And if the desperately needed additions arrive, all the better.

Trouble is, the season has already started.

Premier League – where will we finish?

I love these predictions, particularly in the press. If you look back over twenty years, you can find members of the print media who have predicted ten or more league titles for Liverpool, and more that fifteen occasions that Spurs would finish above Arsenal. Every single one of them has been woefully wrong (although the latter has been hilariously close on occasion, none more so than last May).

Of course, last season confounded everyone – I’m not going to sit here and pretend that I expected anything other than relegation for Leicester, or anticipated a complete Mourinho/Chelsea collapse, but even in a bonkers season some things were as predictable as ever. We still finished in the top four, and ended up looking down on Spurs. Oh, and those who plumped for Liverpool (yes, they still did) were as wrong as ever.

This season is one of the hardest to call in recent memory, for two reasons. One, an unprecedented number of new custodians of the big clubs, and we genuinely have no idea how they (or their signings) will settle, and two, it feels like so many squads are yet to be finalised, not least our own. Having spent all season clamouring for a new striker, our need for a centre half flew under the radar a little until they started dropping like flies. For tomorrow, we’re left with Chambers and the newly arrived Holding as our only options, unless one of the full backs moves inside. Ouch.

Nevertheless, I do expect these gaps to be filled (how effectively is another question), so I’m plumping for third place. Some will read that and think it optimistic, but having scraped into second last time out it doesn’t strike me as unrealistic.

Who will come above us?

This is where my prediction becomes a little dull, as I agree with many observers on this one – the two Manchester clubs. City have had the best squad in the league for some years without making the most of it, and I expect them to go up a couple of gears this campaign, while Mourinho has a habit of starting well in jobs, and also has a lack of Champions League football to worry about (I think he’ll rotate heavily for the Europa). That is a big advantage, although I don’t think it’ll be sufficient to pip their neighbours.

Rounding out the top four – Liverpool. I think they’ll be decent this season, and edge out Chelsea, who still have squad problems that a new manager and light fixture list won’t easily fix. As for Leicester, I think they’d take top eight right now and some fun in the Champions League.

Spurs? Irrelevant.

What about Europe?

Always tough to predict cup competitions but I see little difference from previous years. I think we’re as good as bet as any to get out of the group, but our Arsenal-y tendencies may mean we drop daft points and come second, leading to a behemoth in the first knock out round. Would be nice to break that particular pattern, as I think we’re all bored of it.

A big season for?

There are a number of players for whom this campaign is a big one, and perhaps therein lies the key for Arsenal. Get the best out of those players and we’ll be strong, see them struggle and we’ll frustrate. So who are those key men?

Aaron Ramsey – let’s start with the big one. Ramsey is a remarkable footballer, and has shown such in an Arsenal shirt before. But the overriding feeling with him is that he is shunted into the team because of his talent, but in positions that do not suit him. He needs to prove that he can be at his best with Ozil in the team – right now there is a suspicion that it is an either/or situation. Granit Xhaka may well be a puzzle piece to aid the Welshman. We all know what can happen if Ramsey clicks.

Jack Wilshere – just stay fit, man. A victim of ‘build ’em up, knock ’em down‘ syndrome in the press, his injury woes and combative nature have allowed many to point fingers at him, labelling him an example of wasted English talent. I still think this is astonishingly harsh, given his performances when able to string a run of games together. He just desperately needs a full season.

Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain – not for the first time, the Ox has impressed in pre-season, but those performances will count for nothing if he looks as lost as he did at times last season. Needs consistency of performance as well as fitness.

Alexis Sanchez – WHAT?? I hear you cry. Unlike the others, this isn’t a big season for him because he has flattered to deceive in prior campaigns – far from it. Instead, this relates more to his position – he has the chance, starting against Liverpool, to make the number nine role his own. He has all the attributes, Wenger clearly wants to deploy him there, and it helps our squad balance enormously if he succeeds. I have high high hopes that Sanchez can take his performances to new heights this season, in an adjusted role that gives us a myriad of options around him.

Other predictions?

Player of the Year – Mesut Ozil

Most Improved – Calum Chambers

Will this be Wenger’s last season?  – Yes, by his own choice

What colour is North London? Red.

What do I think of Tottenham? Shit.

What do I think of shit? Tottenham.

Thank you.

Premiership predictions

So, here’s the crux – how will we do? The short answer is ‘better than last season‘, but that’s a bit of a cop out answer, so here we go – I think we’ll finish second, which is highest I’ve predicted since I started doing these a few years ago.

I put Chelsea as favourites for the title, because the additions of Cesc and Costa are, on paper, exactly what they need, and unless Costa doesn’t transfer his form from Spain to England, they look to have the strongest and most balanced squad. Don’t be fooled by the World Cup, when he was unfit and poor, Costa is a class act (well, footballisticly, he is actually a horrible turd who spends a lot of his time niggling and diving). If he struggles to adapt, Chelsea may fail to reach the heights, but of all our rivals, they appear to have improved the most.

I think second is very realistic. We have so much more pace than last season, and because Sanchez (and Walcott, when he returns) will push defensive lines back, space will open up for Ozil, Cazorla, Ramsey and Wilshere. We’re a tough proposition to defend against.

The biggest question is at the other end of the field, where we are light on numbers after Vermaelen”s departure. We’ve signed Chambers, but he is very young (talented, but young), and we were actually short on numbers there last season, and lucky that Mertesacker and Koscielny were so rarely unavailable. Sagna’s versatility is also no longer an option.

I think we’ll add a centre half before the end of the window, which will probably end our spending for the summer and give us the deepest and strongest squad in many years. Not quite enough to win the league, but enough for us to be up there until the final weeks.

Behind us, I’ll go for the two Manchester clubs – City third and United fourth. United just lost their opening game, and were exceptionally poor doing so, but I think they’ll take advantage of a lack of European football just like Liverpool did last season and reclaim their spot in the top four. Liverpool are the prime candidates to miss out – the combination of Champions League distractions and the loss of Suarez means they are back in transitional land.

My final prediction for the league is that there will be a massive gap between the have and have nots – Spurs and Everton have challenged a top four berth in the last few seasons but I expect them to be nowhere near this time around.

Key player

Aaron Ramsey is the obvious choice but by the end of this season I imagine we’ll be talking about one man in particular – Mesut Ozil. He needs to be given the appropriate rest after his World Cup exploits, and the sheer number of midfield options available to us makes that possible, but once he gets back up to speed I think we’ll see the best of a man often described as one of the elite of world football, by people who know (no, Neil Ashton, I don’t mean you). The addition of pace up front will also create more space for the wily German, and I can see him stepping into Bergkamp’s colossal shoes. Yes, he is that good.

Most improved player

Otherwise known as the ‘who will do a Ramsey‘ prediction. I’m picking the man who has historically been a year behind his Welsh colleague in development, injury and reintegration, and that is Jack Wilshere. He looks sharp, he looks hungry and he has had a proper pre-season, a luxury he hasn’t had that often. He is almost certain to start until Ozil comes back, and has an early chance to stake his place doing forward. I fully expect him to give Wenger an enormous, but very welcome, selection headache as the season goes on.

I also expect Gibbs to continue his upward trajectory, and make his omission from England’s World Cup squad look like a terrible decision.

Who else is it a big season for?

Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain. I’m slightly concerned for him, and not because of his talent, which I think is immense. My concern is where and how he fits in – the arrival of Sanchez has made his path to the first team a whole lot trickier, and he strikes me as a player who would benefit from a run of games. I think only injury will give him that chance.

Joel Campbell/Yaya Sanogo. I’m more concerned about Campbell, if I’m honest – I’m not convinced he will ever fit into an Arsenal system, even though I think he is a decent enough player and will forge a good career somewhere. At Arsenal, I see him more as the occasional fill in who tries too hard to prove himself and doesn’t quite manage it.

I’m more hopeful for Sanogo but I just feel he has way too much pressure on him – he is raw yet exposed in our squad and appears to have little chemistry with anyone else. There is plenty of time for him if he doesn’t get rushed.

How about the cups?

If there is another competition I can see us challenging for this season, it is the League Cup or Champions League, not (ironically, since we’re the holders) the FA Cup. Our depth means that our rotated League Cup team will remain very strong, and our setup feels ideally suited for the Champions League. I can see the FA Cup being sacrificed now that the ‘no trophy for X years‘ mantra has gone, in favour of the bigger European prize, and I could see us progressing a lot further there. The two Spanish heavyweights are probably the favourites there, but if we avoid them I could see us reaching the semis at least.

—

And there you have it. This time last year I was writing a despairing prediction about how we’d cocked up badly. But we improved, signed Ozil, and went on to have a much better season than expected. I think we can keep moving upward this season, and the signing of Sanchez can have that uplifting effect once more.

“Ozil, through to Sanchez, gooooooooooal!”

Get used to it.

It took only one match before we went the distance, with Brazil and Chile serving up a wonderful game that in truth, either could have won. Brazil will feel hard done by that Hulk’s goal was disallowed for handball, and they had the tired Chileans on the ropes at times, but Chile were also impressive, and nearly snatched it in the dying seconds of injury time, Pinilla smashing Cesar’s crossbar. Chile missed their first two penalties, only for Willian and Hulk to match them, so it all came down to the final pair. Neymar, with all the pressure of Brazil on his shoulders, did the stuttering run up that so often leads to failure, but calmly slotted it away, before Jara hit the inside of the post to send the hosts through.

In truth, Brazil just about edged it and deserved to progress, and their presence as host nation only enhances what has been the best World Cup I can remember since the first one I was really aware of – Italia 90. All of the top teams have flaws, most of the supposed weaker teams have turned out better than expected, and as a result there has barely been a dull moment (at least, outside Belgium’s group). As a competition, it is wide open, with no single team emerging as clear favourites. Chile coming so close to knocking Brazil out shows exactly what can happen, and I’d expect a number of surprising results over the coming days.

As far as Arsenal interest goes, the game also signals the end of Alexis Sanchez’s involvement, and with him set to leave Barcelona this summer, our interest seems inevitable and genuine. The trouble is that we are far from alone, and Liverpool may hold the prize card if Barcelona want to offer a sweetener in their chase for everyone’s favourite excuse-creating racist biter, Luis Suarez. There are, as always, a load of newspapers and reporters EXCLUSIVELY revealing that he has signed for about five different teams – as always, Arsenal are tight-lipped until the deal is practically done, so my advice would be to ignore the myriad of unreliables and wait for something more official.

As for Suarez, it turned out he went home only a day before his teammates, as Uruguay were comfortably dismissed by the increasingly impressive Colombians in the second of the all South American encounters. All the talk is of the continued brilliance of James Rodriguez, whose stunning volley and completion of a brilliant team move not only took his country to a mouthwatering quarter final against the host nation, but also propelled him to the top of the scoring charts, having already scored in each of Colombia’s previous three victories.

But in truth, Colombia are far more than the abilities of a few superstars – they are a team in the truest sense, knitted together in attitude and tactics, and as a result have scored a few of the most unselfish goals of the tournament, with players regularly passing up a chance of personal glory for a better placed teammate. No wonder Wenger, who values that trait above most, was purring as he provided analysis on French television.

Later today, Netherlands face Mexico and Costa Rica play Greece in the most unlikely of matchups. The only Arsenal interest is Joel Campbell, who will look to further impress against the Greeks.

As for other Arsenal news, it is deathly quiet. There are already dissenting voices, raised whenever a rival signs a player, but we cannot judge Arsenal’s summer by the actions of others – we have to make sure that the right additions are made in good time, but June is too early to be writing that off. It is a strange juxtaposition when people demand we sign players from the World Cup and then show frustration at the lack of action before those players have made it home. Makes no sense.

However, we already know that United, City and Chelsea will strengthen. Liverpool will buy (and have), although the way they handle Suarez will determine whether you can say they’ve actually gotten better or worse. We also need to improve, but I’m not about to panic when the transfer window isn’t even open yet.

Frankly, I’m too busy enjoying the World Cup.

In 2010 I placed ten pre-tournament bets and then one more on each match, and I’ll be doing the same this year. As always, you can follow along on Twitter and chuckle at my missteps, or see how I’m doing on the panel over to the right.

2010 betting tips (these went quite well)

So, what ten pre-tournament selections did I make this year? Here goes:

1) Argentina to win the World Cup (4/1)

With the World Cup in Brazil, they are naturally the favourites, but I have a hunch that the tournament may be going to another South American country. With a fairly straightforward group and a good chance of a friendly last 16 opponent, they should come into the quarter finals fresh and ready, while having the conditions on their side and matchwinning talents at their disposal. I think the pressure might crack Brazil at some stage, and I can’t see a European nation lifting the tournament this time around. Argentina it is.

2) Top scorer to score five goals (13/5)

So this one is a bit random. The Golden Boot winner always used to score more than this, but scorelines are not as high as they used to me, and the last two Golden Boot awards have gone to players with five to their name. Simply a case of decent odds for a fairly likely outcome.

3) Belgium to be knocked out in the last 16 (13/10)

Belgium are many pundits’ dark horses. They have some stellar young talent, and some are even predicting they could go as far as the semi finals. Not for me – they are a young side and the climate isn’t to their liking, so while I’d give them good odds of doing well at the Euros in two years, I don’t think this is their tournament. So why the last 16? For me, they have the easiest group – Russia, Algeria and South Korea are unlikely to stop them progressing, but then they face someone from Group G (Germany, Portugal, Ghana, USA). I can’t see them getting past that point.

4) Mexico to be knocked out in the last 16 (19/10)

I have the same tip for Mexico – out of the group but no further. The longer odds are indicative of their tricky group – with Brazil, Croatia and Cameroon to contend with, they’ll do well to get to the knockout stages. But I think they have enough about them to pip Croatia, before running into a Spanish brick wall in the last 16.

5) Uruguay to win Group D (7/4)

The English press amuses me. For all the talk of England and Italy it is an often missed fact that Uruguay are in fact the seeded team of the group, and with conditions in their favour have to start as favourites to top it. Given that, I find the odds of 7/4 remarkably generous.

6) Ghana to qualify from Group G (11/4)

This is my favourite bet of the ten. One rule I’ve always followed in World Cups is to punt on an outsider in a really tough group. Germany and Portugal are the clear favourites to progress, with USA also dangerous, but this isn’t the Champions League, where one bad result can be countered over the course of six games. This is a three game process, and it is extremely common for such a group to see a major nation fall early. Whoever loses between the two Europeans is under massive pressure in their other games, and one great result for Ghana could see them through. In what I expect to be the tightest of groups, I see Ghana getting out.

7) No tournament hattricks (9/4)

This one is quite random too, and Neymar made me extremely nervous last night, as it looked for a while as if it would be scuppered in the very first match. But World Cup hattricks are not as common as they used to be, and are particularly rare once you get past the group stage. Ultimately, the reason I ended up going for this was the heat – I can see plenty of situations like last night, when a player with a brace is taken off to rest them for the next game. I don’t expect to see hammerings this year because I expect teams to take their foot off the pedal to conserve energy. Hence, no hattricks.

8) Four tournament shootouts (9/2)

Sometimes you just have a hunch, ok?

9) Netherlands to go out in the group stage (5/4)

In 2010 I tipped the Dutch to lift the trophy, and they got really close. This time I don’t seem them doing well – I don’t feel they have the strength or the star power (at least, I think a lot of their star power has waned), and I think they could be the victims of a really tough group, being ousted by Spain and the underrated Chile.

10) Switzerland to be knocked out in the quarter finals (9/2)

This is my other favourite bet of the group. While Belgium are the dark horses of many, Switzerland are mine. They are exceptionally difficult to beat, and I can see them topping their group, and therefore avoid Argentina in the last 16. Quarter finals is probably as far as they can can go, but I think 9/2 is extremely generous for them getting that far.

Do you have any tips? Any thoughts on these? Feel free to post yours in the comments below, and follow on Twitter to see which matchday bets I place – I’m 0/1 so far as last night’s bet was for Brazil to win by a single goal, and Oscar’s late toe poke ruined that one. Never mind!

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Thanks. I feel better. A month on, it still feels awesome, particularly given the scores that doubted Wenger would ever lift a trophy again. Screw you, suckers.

Anyway, yesterday was not only the start of the World Cup, but it wasn’t the best of days to be an Arsenal fan. First the news was confirmed that Cesc Fabregas would be joining Chelsea. It is a difficult one to swallow for many reasons – despite leaving under a cloud there was little doubt among many that Cesc really did care for Arsenal, or at least his determined performances and attitude appeared to show it. There will be those that say the move to Chelsea proves he never did, but I see it somewhat differently – had we exercised our ‘first option’ on him, he’d be an Arsenal player now. We didn’t, and he wanted to move to London (for family reasons as much as anything). That left two choices – Chelsea and Spurs – which is bit like being asked to choose between a sandwich made of gnat’s piss or donkey semen. No wonder his smile looks forced.

Ultimately, Barcelona wanted rid, we passed, so he moved to a club we didn’t want him to move to. Not the best of situations, but that was our choice. Perhaps the most interesting tidbit in all of this is that neither of his two club affections wanted him any more.

The other thing that has interested me has been the reaction. I feel that if the same had happened last season, there would have been outright mutiny. With a trophy drought ever extending, and a perceived inability (or unwillingness) to bring in the top players, Wenger would have been lampooned beyond belief to pass on a player of Cesc’s undoubted skills. But the reaction has actually been far calmer – an acknowledgement that Cesc isn’t what we need, due to a combination of Ozil’s signing and Ramsey’s spectacular emergence, and that as long as business is conducted properly in the areas we do need to strengthen in, then this quiet acceptance will continue.

Personally, I feel this has a massive amount to do with the cup final win. With that monkey off our backs, everything feels less urgent, less dramatic, and less poisonous. When you’re not winning anything, the desperation rises, so any available player of any talent not signed is seen as a disaster – there are countless examples in the past five years of players who certainly were not good enough for Arsenal, yet caused ridiculous angst when they were not snapped up. That has now changed.

Twitter is a notoriously angry place. Yet the reaction yesterday, while filled with annoyance, was measured, muted and calm. Cesc is already part of history, and our needs lay elsewhere. Time to move on.

Elsewhere, part of our more recent history also moved on, with Bacary Sagna confirming his departure in classy manner. I have nothing but praise for a man who clearly decided not to sign a new contract long ago, yet gave everything in every minute of every match, where others would have held back a little, mentally wandering and protecting themselves for their last big contract. Sagna cared, and gave his all. I wish him nothing but the best.

I doubt there will be much Arsenal news in the next month, aside from Mikel Arteta coming back to an empty training ground and being filled with World Cup melancholy. The focus is now on the Brazilian showpiece, and with seven games in the next two days, it is about to get crazy. Enjoy.

This season has been entirely different, more so than it appeared it would after the opening day, where a lack of summer activity contributed to a poisonous atmosphere in a home defeat to Villa. That would turn out to be our only league reverse at the Emirates, and a tremendous first half of the season saw us considered genuine title contenders by most, sitting pretty at the league summit for a long time. But huge reverses in big matches, coupled with some daft slip-ups, saw that dream fade a couple of months from the end, with Everton’s form even briefly threatening our top four berth. Five wins on the spin at the end of the season quelled that concern.

Which is better? Which is worse? Or, as one person put it to me, is reversing the ups and downs of the season just a different kind of stagnation? A difficult one to answer without directly comparing the last two seasons.

2012/13

2013/14

A six point gain and three more wins suggests clear improvement, as does the comparison of how close we came to those above and below us. In 2012/13, we finished a massive sixteen points behind champions United, and only one ahead of Spurs in fifth. This time, the margin to City was a deficit of only seven, with the same gap separating us from Everton. It isn’t all rosy though, as the goal columns attest – we scored fewer and conceded more than last season, evidence of both the improved ability to win close games and the tendency to lose big on occasion.

Turning to the cups, we had a repeat performance in the Champions League, where a tough group was successfully navigated before falling to Bayern in the first knockout phase, we fell earlier in the League Cup (sorry, I refuse to call it the Johnson’s Dry Cleaning Cup, or whatever it is named these days), but as we know, have reached the FA Cup Final, where we enter as strong favourites.

Put simply, this season will be judged almost entirely on that match. Win, and it has to be considered a successful season – for so many years people have pontificated which is more important – fourth place or a trophy – and we’d have both. But a defeat will consign this season to the ‘fourth but no trophy‘ description that blends it in with too many others. While Wenger’s future appears not to hang on the result as some expected, the summer mood does, and with a 3% ticket price rise being felt as the season ticket renewals are distributed, a painful defeat could bring that into sharp focus. It it big. Really big.

Fourth v Third

There is one other thing to note about coming fourth – the Champions League qualifier. While we have consistently navigated these when required, it has often had a lasting effect on our season. We know the club has had a decent bank balance for a while now, but just how healthy has often not been clear until that hurdle has been successfully cleared. This has had an effect on many of our transfer dealings (most notably the summer of Cesc/Nasri), and while there is a strong argument that it should not have made as much of a difference as it did, it has been an added complication.

It should not be a concern anymore, at least financially. With additional TV and commercial income guaranteed from elsewhere, the Champions League ‘proper’, while still lucrative, is not the be all and end all it has been. The line about us being financially strong even with a season out of Europe’s premier competition is now very much true, and there is absolutely no reason for the summer’s business to be affected by August’s unknown, something that is even more important in World Cup year, where the window for getting things done is so much shorter.

Speaking of the World Cup, it could actually be the biggest problem we face this summer. Our cup final appearance means that the players get one less week to recuperate before the tournament begins, and with the final on July 13th, that leaves precious little time to rest before pre-season and that crucial qualifier rolls around. There will be many clubs turning to non-internationals or early fallers as the domestic season restarts in August, while their triumphant summer stars get the rest they will desperately need.

Anyone playing the cup final, a few warm up games, and a long tournament in sweltering Brazilian conditions in going to need careful management on their return. That is by no means restricted to us – managers up and down the country will have to earn their stripes.

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I’ll be back later in the week with a broken down assessment of the best and worst moments of the season, the players that stood out (a certain Welshman may feature…) and a look back at the league as a whole, and where our six point improvement sits against our rivals. Until then, I’m going to watch Ramsey’s stupendous volley once again. What a player.

After one of the most tense matches in our recent history, Arsenal are in the FA Cup Final. Sounds good, doesn’t it? However laborious the match was, however close we came to being added to Wigan’s long list of cup scalps, we became the first team in two years to knock them out, and as a result find ourselves up against Hull in our first return to the annual showpiece since Vieira’s spot kick won us the trophy in 2005 (or started our trophy drought, depending on who you listen to).

The match was agony, but the result is to be enjoyed, especially after a traumatic couple of weeks in which our title challenge has exploded, the race for fourth has gone from depressingly familiar to deeply concerning, and everyone at the club has been questioned, not least the man who has led the club to the pinnacle and back.

But, of course, there are those that want to rain on our parade, one of a number of things that grated this weekend, so I thought I’d dive into each point and break them down.

1. You can’t celebrate beating Wigan

Actually, Roy Keane, you can. Football, for all the focus on the long-term, the nine month campaigns, the qualifications for future competitions, is actually about the moments. Last minute winners, cup shocks, wonder goals, it is moments that people remember, for good or bad. Cup finals offer many of these moments, from the joy of Andy Linighan and Alan Sunderland’s late winners, to the horrors of Owen’s late turnaround, from the aforementioned shoot-out steal of 2005, to the West Ham disappointment.

All of the above are memorable, for the drama, for the occasion, for the fact we were there. By the time the cup final rolls around, it has everyone’s attention, and too many times in recent years we’ve been watching two sides we despise and trying to figure out which one we want to lose less. Not this year.

But beyond that, we needed this. It wasn’t about playing a Championship side, it was about capitalising on an opportunity to lift a competition we won habitually in the early part of the century, it was about making the most of beating Liverpool, Everton and Spurs to get here (isn’t it remarkable that people say the cup has opened up for us, when it is us who have knocked out most of the big boys?) by finishing the job. Once we went a goal down, it was about survival – in the match, in the cup, and perhaps in the careers of some. It was huge in so many ways.

We did it, we’re in the final – we can celebrate all we like Roy, just like you did when you beat Millwall in the 2004 final. Did you go into the dressing room and stop the champagne flowing because you’d only beaten a third tier side? Of course you didn’t, you pompous prat.

2. The art of the selfie

Ugh. Before I start, I should mention that I hate the word ‘selfie’. It’s a photo. People have been taking photos of themselves for donkey’s years, why is this suddenly a craze?

Anyway, while I hate the term, I cannot understand for a moment why there was such outrage that Ramsey and Cazorla were taking shots of themselves celebrating after the game. And if you think outrage is too strong a term, you should have seen some of the journalists on Twitter actually suggesting sanctions for such behaviour, and not even in jest.

Let’s put this into perspective. How many times have you heard the same journalists cry out at the devaluing of the FA Cup, at ‘foreign players’ (always their fault) not understanding the importance and history of the competition, all while calling it the ‘greatest cup in the world’? Plenty of times, I would guess.

So why, when two players value it highly enough to be taking mementos of the moment, are they vilified? For many, this was their first victory at Wembley, for some it was their first visit at all. Why shouldn’t they savour the moment? Isn’t that exactly what these misty-eyed writers have been looking for, a sign that they really care? Hypocrisy has no limits.

3. Wenger as a laughing stock

Ok, this is where I’m going to lose some of you. I realise that right now the Arsenal fanbase is divided, it has been so for a long time. And while there is much blurring, with some sick of Wenger but wanting him to bow out with a trophy and a legacy, and others who have supported his retention now angling for a change, that is our analytical right as fans – we can love the man yet get frustrated with him, we can support him and despair at some of his decisions, and we can debate his merits and flaws ad nauseam.

Professional broadcasters (journalists, pundits, analysts) are supposed to take the emotion of being a fan out of the debate, to provide a clearer analysis free of bias and predispositions, but increasingly this doesn’t appear to be the case – they prefer instead to go for the extremes, for the Talksport approach of riling up their readers and listeners and allowing their agendas to cloud how they deduce what is in front of them.

This was painfully the case on Saturday, with ITV managing to lower standards yet further (an impressive feat, considering) with their constant barbs, snide jabs and frankly disrespectful comments about Wenger (and, oddly, Arteta, who they seemed to think was the ghost of Denilson past). I’m all for critical analysis, but to reduce a man who has changed the landscape of English football to a clownish caricature was too much. It was truly lowest common denominator stuff.

4. Managing tired legs

Throughout the early phases of extra time, many on Twitter were wondering why we hadn’t made our third and final substitution, with players fading and cramping. I felt (and made the point) that the last change was being reserved for Ramsey, only recently back from long-term injury and highly unlikely to complete 120 minutes. With seven minutes of the added thirty remaining, that came true as Kallstrom replaced him.

Since the game, plenty have been hugely critical of Wenger for allowing Ramsey to play that long. While I can see the argument, this comes back to who knows more about the fitness levels and fatigue of our players – those inside or outside the club.

We have a terrible injury record dating back years – of this there is no doubt. As yet, however, there are no clear answers as to why – our facilities are top-notch, and it isn’t purely a question of numbers – we have a ridiculous amount of midfielders now, which has allowed more rotation than normal, yet they’ve still dropped like flies and by March we’re down to the bare bones once again. You can be sure that the club is trying to find the answer, but I find it remarkable that so many, with so little real knowledge, lambast their decisions based on nothing more than guesswork.

There is one Arsenal fan I trust when it comes to medical issues – an old friend of mine by the name of Tom, who actually has a wealth of medical training and understands sports injuries (and who runs the excellent Running Physio blog). But even he says that these things aren’t simple, and while it is clear that there is an issue, you can’t draw conclusions without a lot more data.

Most of us are far less informed (myself included), so while it is a subject worthy of plenty of debate, it really shouldn’t descend to abuse of those within the club, especially based on the observation that the players ‘looked tired’ in extra time. Newsflash – players are conditioned for 90 minutes, not 120. All the players looked tired, Wigan’s included.

5. Refereeing standards

For this last one I’m going to branch away from Arsenal for a moment. I get quite a lot of stick for being critical of referees in Arsenal games, and I’ll be the first to admit that my observations are built on bias, so of course there is a good chance that people may disagree with my viewpoints, particularly when their biases lay elsewhere. That is normal – witness any pair of managerial post match interviews after a contentious decision and you’ll see those biases taken to their natural conclusion.

However, one of the consequences of Arsenal’s league collapse of recent weeks is that I went into the Liverpool-City game on Sunday not giving a jot who won (I just hoped someone did, because I don’t want Chelsea sneaking ahead of both). Yet despite this, I ended up resenting the result because of the staggeringly awful officiating on display. We all know that referees are human, and they make mistakes like the rest of us, but Mark Clattenburg played an enormous part in the destiny of the points, denying City two clear-cut penalties and refusing to give Suarez a second yellow even after he’d spotted the Uruguayan’s obvious dive. Put simply – if he got all the calls right, Liverpool would not have won the game, and in such a pivotal encounter, that could play a big part in the destination of the title.

Credit where it is due – Michael Oliver had an excellent game in our cup semi – admittedly he had few decisions to make, but the fact that you probably had to think for a moment to remember who took the game indicates that his performance was of the required standard. But this is becoming the exception rather than the norm.

Contrary to what you might think, I don’t actually think this is the fault of the referees – much like players who are out of their depth, it is not necessarily a criticism of them that there are none better. They are the best they can be and they can’t help that they are elevated above their abilities by a lack of talented colleagues. I’ll make an exception for Mike Dean because he isn’t just incompetent, he is a showman who likes to have the cameras on him – and that is a choice.

We’ve been told for years that the number of officials is dwindling, so it really shouldn’t come as a surprise that the standards are fading too. But the cruel accuracy of immediate replays show them up again and again, and surely the time has come to give them some help. We’ve had a couple of instances recently where it appears the fourth official is feeding information to the primary one, and while that has been done in an underhand way, I’m all for making it the norm. Get eyes on cameras, get some information to referees. If you don’t want to stop the game, allow referees to retrospectively punish players once the voice in their ear has told them what really happened.

It is frankly ridiculous that within ten seconds of an incident, the only person who doesn’t know what really happened is the one man who needs to, and that he even has a colleague in the stadium who knows better. As for technology, other sports have shown how much drama can be added with the right sprinkling, and I have wondered for a while whether a country like Qatar could place a more positive spin on their World Cup by paying for such an idea to take place when the world’s eye turns on them. That is, if all their money hasn’t already ended up in brown envelopes.

But until the referees get help, they’ll have their every weakness exposed in seconds, which sullies results and hinders any chance of the Respect campaign working. However much fun it is to poke fun at the man in black, I’m sure we’d rather get the right decisions that chant at them. Unless they’re Mike Dean.

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On to brighter things, and we face West Ham tonight in what could be one of our trickier remaining games – they’re on good form and have a spoiler of a manager who knows how to get under our skin. If every a match called for an early goal, this is it. Bring it on.