I hadn’t thought about it until a reader sent me a link to a hilarious story about a roadshow gone terribly wrong. It confirmed my suspicions that this was being written by a young aspiring sitcom writer, and not a banker. More on that in a moment.

@GSElevator author is supposedly a “former first-year analyst, now working in Goldman’s investment banking and capital markets divisions.” I highly doubt that for a variety of reasons, starting with the fictitious parody-like way they read, rather then genuine conversation.

Then there is the math: Think just for a brief moment about every elevator ride you have ever taken — you are either with a large group of people, where no one speaks — or with a smaller group where there is some conversation. Even if we expand the geography to include offices, hallways, lobbies, dining rooms, glimpses of such explicit and inappropriate speaking come along infrequently. Certainly not two or three times per day. Even if a team of 1000s of eavesdroppers are listening, transcribing and mailing in the Tweets to a central editor, there simply are not that many offhandly humorous statements made in banks in New York / London / Hong Kong. It would quickly exhaust the global supply of that rare earth mineral hilarium.

All good bankers understand Risk Factors — its explicitly detailed on all their documents. Consider the risk of getting caught. One or two of these overheard snippets would help triangulate who the eavesdropper is — but post 100s and the risks of getting found out go up exponentially. Goldie’s security people could geolocate the Tweeter to their exact longitude and latitude, floor and desk seat in a day. Too many people would see these clips and be able to tag the 3rd man in the elevator as the source. Hence, they are most likely fictitious.

The final piece of evidence comes with this column: Your Average Business Trip…Gone Horribly Wrong. It screams professional (or aspiring professional) comedy writer, attempting to follow the Twitter trail blazed by Justin Halpern’s @ShitMyDadSays to sitcom glory. It is clever, well written, and rather hilarious. It also so obviously identifies its author to the rest of the folks in the tale that he would immediately be outed. That is before we even get to the publication site, Total Frat Move — a tell this is no Goldman alum.

We can deduce that at best, this is someone who worked in a large office — law firm, bank, etc., and has an ear for ddialogue and a sharp sense of humor. My money is on an MBA drop out, who has enough jargon to pass to laypeople, but uses it awkwardly enough that it fails the sniff test.

Regardless, Your Average Business Trip…Gone Horribly Wrong an outrageous and funny piece of writing, an excellent calling card for networks looking for an original new series. It is simply way too funny to be written by a real banker.

Good luck, @GSElevator with your career in Hollywood — I look forward to your first take-no-prisoners  movie/sitcom. Just be forewarned — they are as blood thirsty in LaLa land as anyone who works for the Vampire Squid.

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Source:
Roadshow Gone Horribly Wrong
By gselevator 23 days ago
http://totalfratmove.com/782530

See also:
Tweets that feed into Wall St elevator gossip (FT.com)

Investment Banking Meet the Goldman Sachs Banker Behind @GSElevator  (Dealbook)

Chinese inflation rose unexpectedly to +4.5% YoY in January, much worse than the +4.0% expected and higher than the +4.1% reported in December. The rise in inflation was the first after 5 consecutive declines from a peak of +6.5% in summer last year. The early Chinese New Year will have impacted, as food prices rose, which rose to +10.5% YoY. Chinese authorities are planning to raise wages by 11% annually till 2015 – not going to help. Inflation exceeded the Governments target of 4.0% every month last year and, to date, Chinese authorities have not set an inflation target for the current year. Whilst the Chinese inflation data is bad news, in the past, rises in food prices during Chinese New Year have reversed relatively quickly. However, the higher inflation data will curb speculation for an immediate cut in RRR’s/reductions in interest rates, though I believe that looser monetary policy is inevitable;

A report in the FT (quoting Nomura) states that Chinese electricity use in January declined by -7.5% YoY, which they describe as “alarming”. The early Chinese New Year could well have accounted for a part of the decline, but Nomura adds that they have never (ex 2009) seen a decline in demand since 2002, in spite of Chinese New Year falling in different months. Nomura imply that Chinese industrial production may have declined significantly. However, maybe there’s a need to be a bit cautious, as we know that the refusal by the authorities to, in effect, accept higher coal prices lead to a reduction in electricity production, which would have lead to shortages. However, it still seems an awful lot…..;

The Korean Central Bank kept rates on hold at 3.25%, as expected. Interestingly, the BoK did not report that they expected inflation to decline;

Well, no deal as yet from the Greeks. The acting PM, Mr Papademos stated that all issues had been agreed, with the exception of 1 relating to pensions. There’s always 1 remaining issue, is there not. As usual, a Greek spokesman stated that all will be agreed shortly. The Euro Zone finance ministers meet at 6.00pm this evening to discuss the Greek situation, with Ms Lagarde of the IMF attending – presumably the Greeks need to agree by then. A deal looks likely – however, as I keep saying, they are the Greeks. I really hope that I can stop having to write about Greece – unfortunately, I suspect a “deal” on PSI/additional bail out funds, will prove to be a temporary reprieve, I suspect quite strongly;

Further comments by Mr Mr Frankel, the deputy CEO of the EFSF. Apparently the EFSF is considering 2 options to increase the size of the the EFSF. 2 options?, interesting;

German exports in December fell by -4.3% MoM in December, over 4 times more than the forecast decline of just -1.0%. In November, exports rose by +2.6% MoM. One months numbers, but…..;

Mr Barnier, the (French) EU Commissioner is pushing President Sarkozy’s financial transactions tax. Good luck mate – only means that there will be even better French restaurants in London to service the flood of French traders moving across the Channel (or La Manche, if I remember my French) to London. OK, Sarkozy has a Presidential election to contend with and bank bashing is politically good tactics, but French banks must be furious. An EU wide, let alone a global agreement, to introduce a financial tax, is a “mort canard” (or is it “canard mort”), Monsieur Barnier – now I’m really pushing my non existent linguistic skills;

The FT reports that the recent E489bn ECB LTRO has opened up European debt markets as investors start buying corporate debt. It is also clear that some banks are playing the carry trade. It will be interesting to see the level of bank Sovereign debt holdings, following the release of 1st Q European bank earnings reports;

US regulators have agreed a US$39.5bn (FT) or a US$25bn (WSJ) deal with banks re the mortgage foreclosure scandal. Good politically (off course there’s an impending election !!!) for the administration and banks will be released from further claims – positive news;

Good God, Mr Nouriel Roubini (Dr Doom to you and me) has turned BULLISH. Reach for the sell/panic button boys and girls and short everything immediately. Roubini getting bullish – now, I’m really getting scared;

Better results from McDonalds (mainly overseas), Disney and Time Warner – suggests that the US consumer is feeling better. US markets closed modestly higher and Asian shares, initially lower following the Chinese inflation data and delays re the Greek bail out, are reversing and are currently higher in the main – including the Shanghai index. European futures indicate a higher open (indeed strengthening), in anticipation of a “deal” on Greece.

The Euro, well currently higher at US$1.33 (completely nuts and just Greek deal related), though the higher Chinese inflation data has resulted in the A$ weakening (currently US$1.0760). Gold is trading around US$1740 and spot Brent at US$117.20 – when will it come off.

I would guess that the miners will open lower given the Chinese data (and RIO’s worse than expected results – problems with their Aluminium business and a lower than expected div) and the financials higher on the prospect of a Greek “deal”. Certainly hope so, given my positioning.

ECB and BoE to announce their decisions today – a further Sterling 50bn QE (at least) programme raising QE to date to Sterling 325bn is expected from the BoE (some suggest more targeting eg MBS’s, rather than the BoE continuing to buy just Gilts). No additional QE by the BoE (unlikely) will be very bad news. No change is expected from the ECB – however, its going to be interesting to hear what Draghi has to say about the ECB’s holding of Greek bonds.

However, it is a pretty long list of things that seem to be improving — or at least not getting worse:

• Housing starting to recover
• Labor market improving
• Credit expansion unfolding
• Low dollar
• Low rates
• Pent-up demand
• US mfg renaissance
• US energy sector booming
• Double-dip fears minimal so far this year
• Inflation receding around the world
• Europe financial strains have eased
• Liquidity is building in the world economy, eg, corporate cash
• There’ve been 83 stimulative policy initiatives announced around
the world over the past 5 months, eg, Indonesia cut rates
• The Fed has rates on hold at zero and is doing Operation Twist
• ECB is scheduled to further expand its balance sheet on Feb 29
by as much as + €1t
• There are no particular problems at the moment such as Japan
disasters, Thailand floods, supply-chain disruptions, gasoline
price spikes, and debt ceiling crises

What do you think? Is the data objectively getting better, or is this merely a selective list of positives?

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What say ye?

• Lunch with Kenneth Rogoff (FT.com)
• Facebook already went public, you weren’t invited (Fortune)
• Kant and Hume on Causality (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)
• Here’s Why It May Be Time To Think Defensively (WSJ)
• Cancer rates triple among New York police officers who responded to 9/11 (Telegraph)
• In Piracy Debate, Deciding if the Sky Is Falling (NYT)
• The rise and fall of lap dancing (BBC)
• Gartner Says Western European PC Shipments Fell 16% in Q4 (Gartner)
• How Massage Heals Sore Muscles (NYT) see also How to live 100 healthy years (Market Watch)
• Blogosphere, We Get It… (Floating Path)

What’s on your tablet?
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Ranks of Low-Risk Corporate Issuers Thin

Source: WSJ

Source:
S.E.C. Is Avoiding Tough Sanctions for Large Banks
NYT, February 3, 2012

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Happy Anniversary! Here we are, exactly 5 years to the day from the beginning of the credit crisis.

Jim Bianco dates the crisis as formerly beginning on February 8, 2007 when HSBC’s Household International announced huge losses due to subprime lending. HSBC had to restate its 2006 earnings significantly lower. Bianco adds that while most people were asking what a subprime loan was, HSBC was “patient zero” of the crisis.

To underscore this was indeed the start, HSBC ended this lending unit March 2009, literally hours before the stock market bottomed.

Lawyer Stuff

The future is unknowable. We have good intentions but all of our projections and estimates will be wrong, and could be materially wrong. Wildcat exploration is expensive, speculative and potentially dangerous. An offshore spill or explosion would be enormously expensive. We have insurance but it may not be enough. You could lose your entire investment. Don’t be lazy – read our 10-Q’s, 10-K’s and press releases, and if you lose money – please no tears.

“Don’t forget about risk-free T-bills in your portfolio…After inflation and taxes you’ll likely only lose 5-10% of your investment.”

- Contango V.P. Investor Relations

Great stuff!

Hat tip Aurelian Management

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Contango_PCP2012