Fans of Boston

The Yankees AREN'T coming, the Yankees AREN'T coming!

2007-08-21T16:45:00.000-04:00

After listening to Red Sox fans over the past two weeks, you’d think that the Yankees had clinched the AL East. Predictions of doomsday and disaster have been pervasive since August 10, when Eric Gagne blew his first save in a Sox uniform and the Yankees finally closed the gap to a mere 5 games. None of it matters. Unlike the British, the Yankees aren’t coming. It may appear that they are, but in this case objects in the mirror are further away, not closer, than they appear.

Yes, the Yankees are a league best 27-12 (.692 winning percentage) since the All-Star break, but the Sox haven’t exactly been slouches themselves at 22-16 (.578 winning percentage). Right now, the Red Sox hold a 5 game lead with 37 games to play. Even if the Yankees play at the same .692 winning percentage over the rest of the season and the Red Sox play at the same .578 winning percentage, the Red Sox will finish with 96.38 wins and the Yankees with 95.6. Round those numbers and you get a virtual tie. If you factor Seattle’s .567 winning percentage post All-Star break into the equation, they’re on pace to win 92.7 games, so both the Red Sox and Yankees would make the playoffs via finishing in a tie and winning the division and Wild Card, a la 2005.

But there is certainly reason to believe that the Yankees won’t hold up their end of the bargain. Since the All-Star Break, the Yankees, until recently, have played a crème-puff schedule. Even including their recent series against Cleveland, Detroit, and Los Angeles of Anaheim, the Yankees opponents’ combined winning percentage is a mere .490. If you weight the winning percentages to account for more games played against certain teams (for example, they’ve played Tampa and Kansas City 8 and 7 time respectively and Cleveland only 3, so weighting them adjusts for actual times playing a team, not just summing wins and losses and dividing), that same opponents’ winning percentage drops to .468. During the same time period, the Red Sox have played many of the same opponents, but the numbers of times they’ve played those opponents have differed. The Yankees played Kansas City seven times and Los Angeles of Anaheim once, while the Red Sox played Kansas City three times and Los Angeles of Anaheim seven. The Red Sox’ opponents’ winning percentage was .494 and .490 weighted. Over the course of a season, the difference in the number of wins between the Red Sox’ opponents and Yankees’ opponents is three wins, so in essence the Yankees have played only 1.5 games better than the Red Sox since the break, not the 4.5 games that the standings would indicate.

Additionally, the Yankees’ schedule moving forward is going to be harder than the Red Sox’ schedule. Both teams have 37 games left to play, including six head-to-head battles. The Yankees’ opponents’ normal winning percentage is .513 and .503 weighted. The Red Sox’ opponents’ normal winning percentage is .479 and .472 weighted. Over the course of a season, Yankee opponents would win 5 games more than Red Sox opponents. Think about that: the Yankees’ schedule is 5 games more difficult than the Sox’, as wide as the current gap between the Red Sox and Yankees. This means that in order to tie the Red Sox, the Yankees will have to play the equivalent of ten games better over the remaining 37 due to their schedule. Do you STILL think they Yankees are coming?

Taking the idea even further, the Yankees have scored an absurd 271 runs since the All Star Break for an average of 7.13 runs per game; wow! Looking at their schedule, it might not be a stretch to say that the Yankees, although they have a terrific offense, might be benefiting from poor pitching. Also, their pitching staff has given up 4.84 runs per game in the same time, against the same bad teams. Granted, bad teams are more often characterized by bad pitching than bad hitting (see Tampa Bay), but in general they are poor in all areas, not just pitching. This would mean that the 4.84 runs per game the Yankees have been allowing might be even higher against better teams while their runs scored might be lower. Coincidently, the Sox have been averaging 5.31 runs scored per game and 4.05 runs allowed per game since the break.

If it’s not already apparent that the Yankees will regress over the final 37 games, here’s another piece of information that Red Sox fans can use to silence those Yankee fans in their lives. This information will likely satisfy even those fans or writers who despise statistics and who would prefer to rely on history. Since 1996, as Yankees fans will surely boast, the Red Sox have not finished ahead of the Yankees. In that eleven year span, the Yankees have averaged a 98-64 record compared to the Red Sox’ 89-73. On August 21, the Yankees have averaged a six game lead over the Sox. By the time the season has ended, the Yankees have averaged a nine game lead over the Sox, meaning they expand their lead by an average of three games from August 21 until the end of the season. Three games hardly seems like the late-August and September swoon that the Red Sox are famous for. Even if history repeats itself, the Yankees will finish two games back.

Yankees fans tend to like to rely on history. When my friends and I were at Yankee Stadium in late May watching the Yankees beat the Sox to narrow the Sox’ lead to nine games Yankee fans didn’t want to hear about 2004 or the nine game hole they were in. They only wanted to fall back on the 26 rings their team had won up through 2001 and how the Red Sox hadn’t won a division title since 1995.

Sox fans, get ready to tell your Yankee-loving friends where to stick those rings, ‘cause unlike the British, the Yankees aren’t coming.

The Sox Pitching Staff - Best in the AL (by far)

2007-08-17T11:01:00.000-04:00

THE BOTTOM LINE: The Red Sox have the best pitching staff in the AL by far. Based on a formula I’ve developed, the Sox have a 75% chance of making the playoffs from the pitching side of the equation, highest in the AL.

The popular thought in baseball in recent years has been that offense can carry a team through the regular season, but that pitching wins in October. While the actual verity of this thought is debatable (Baseball Prospectus found that only a pitching staff’s strikeout rate, the closers’ wins added (WXRL), and the defense’s quality (FRAA or Fielding Runs added) correlate directly with postseason glory), having very good pitching certainly can hide many flaws that an otherwise good team might have.

Three stats that can summarize the quality of a team’s pitching are VORP, WXRL, and SNLVAR (all of which come from Baseball Prospectus). Allow me to explain in brief what each of these stats means. Bear with me; this will be useful in discussing the 2007 AL pennant race.

VORP (value over replacement player) measures the number of runs a team’s pitching staff (or pitchers individually) prevents beyond replacement level, or basically a staff made up of AAA pitchers. It measures the overall quality of the pitching staff. The higher the VORP, measured in runs, the better the staff. 10 runs is equal to a win, and a team with a combined offensive and defensive VORP of zero would win 48 games in a season. The highest team VORP in the Wild Card era (1995-present) was accumulated by the 1999 Boston Red Sox (361.4 VORP), who helped by one of the greatest pitching performances in baseball history turned in by Pedro Martinez (102.3 all by himself).

WXRL (expected wins added beyond replacement level) is a measure of how many wins a staff adds beyond that of a AAA staff as measured by change in win expectancy, adjusted for the quality of the opposing lineup. It’s a measure of the effectiveness of a team’s bullpen. Win expectancy is a concept that measures a team’s chances of winning a game based on a change in out, base runner situation, inning, and score. For example, based on 2006 play-by-play data, the home team batting in the bottom of the 8^th inning with runners on first and second with one out trailing by 1 run had a .43 (or 43%) chance of winning the game. If the opposing pitcher records an out, so now that the home team is batting in the bottom of the 8^th inning with runners on first and second with two outs trailing by 1 run, the team has only a .3 (30%) chance of winning the game. The pitcher who records the out is credited with the difference, .13 (.43-.3) between the probability of victory. He has effectively reduced the opposing team’s chance of winning the game by 13%. Outs recorded with large differences in the score or early in games have less value than those late in close games under this system. Over the course of the season, WXRL is added and subtracted until a total is reached; the higher the total is the better the team’s bullpen is. The highest total since 1995 was the 2003 LA Dodgers with 21.78, anchored by a historic season by Eric Gagne (9.23 WXRL).

SNLVAR (support neutral lineup adjusted value above replacement) measures the number of wins added by a starting pitcher above a AAA pitcher after making all pitchers have the same run support and face the same quality of opponent. It measures the quality of a team’s starting pitching staff. It places all pitchers on a level playing field, and is measured in wins. The highest SNLVAR since 1995 as a team was recorded by the 1997 Atlanta Braves (33.6), anchored by future Hall of Famers Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz.

Now that the explanation is all out of the way, if I haven’t lost you yet, we can look at the data since 1995. Since 1995, teams who rank in the top five in VORP, WXRL, or SNLVAR reach the playoffs 66% of the time. Teams ranking in the top three in the same categories reach the playoffs 74% of the time. A look at the data for the top 5 spots:

Season Rank	% VORP Top 5 Playoffs	% WXRL Top 5 Playoffs	% SNLVAR Top 5 Playoffs
1	83.33%	83.33%	91.67%
2	75%	75%	66.67%
3	66.67%	66.67%	58.33%
4	50%	33.33%	58.33%
5	66.67%	75%	50%
Total	68.33%	66.67%	65%

Being anywhere in the top 5 of any of these pitching categories gives a team a strong chance of making the playoffs.

How does this relate to the 2007 AL playoff race? We can make a formula that weighs a team’s pitching playoff chances by factoring in their rank in all three categories and the playoff chances in those categories. The data I’m using here is the same as above. The formula that I’m going to use is as follows:

[VORP Rank x Playoff Chance % + WXRL Rank x Playoff Chance % + SNLVAR Rank x Playoff Chance %]/3= Pitching Playoff Score

Note: There are certainly flaws in this system, such as a team ranking 20^th having a better chance of making the playoffs than a team ranking 17^th. This would probably be fixed using more years of data, but the general guiding principle is still worthwhile.

Ranking only the AL contenders, we get the following chart:

Team	*Score*	% Chance
BOS	224.99	74.99666667
MIN	133.33	44.44333333
ANA	124.99	41.66333333
SEA	83.33	27.77666667
CLE	74.99	24.99666667
DET	16.66	5.553333333
NYA	8.33	2.776666667

The list really isn’t all that surprising. Let’s analyze each staff, focusing on the starters, setup man, and closer to see how they look going forward towards October.

Boston - Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield, Jon Lester, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon

The Sox boast the league’s best pitching staff and are statistically second only to San Diego in all of baseball. The rotation is strong, especially the front end, where they have two young aces and one aging ace with a great playoff track record. Although Okajima has never pitched this much in his career, he’s unlikely to be burned out before October due to suitable replacements in Eric Gagne, Manny Delcarmen, Mike Timlin, and potentially Clay Buchholz. Papelbon has pitched far fewer innings this year than last and is healthy; he’s been lights out for most of the season.

Minnesota – Johan Santana, Boof Bonser, Carlos Silva, Scott Baker, Matt Garza, Pat Neshek/Matt Guerrier, Joe Nathan

Minnesota’s staff has been carried by Johan Santana and the back end of the bullpen, Nathan, Neshek, and Guerrier. Otherwise, they haven’t been spectacular individually, only as a unit. Not having Francisco Liraino really has hurt them this year. At 6.5 games behind, Liriano’s presence could have cut that deficit much lower, perhaps even to the point that they’d have been buyers and not sellers at the trading deadline.

Los Angeles of Anaheim – John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana, Scot Shields, Francisco Rodriguez

Lackey and Escobar have been two of the top pitchers in the league this season and offer no real reason to doubt them going forward. Weaver’s been inconsistent because of injuries, but overall has been an above average third starter. Ervin Santana, whom the Angels refused to trade in a deal for Miguel Tejada only a year ago, was so bad that he was demoted to AAA for a few starts. Saunders’ performance as a fifth starter has given the Angels no reason to worry, and Shields and K-Rod have been as good as ever. This would definitely be a scary pitching staff to face in October.

Seattle – Felix Hernandez, Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista, Jeff Weaver, Horatio Ramirez, George Sherrill, JJ Putz

Hernandez has shown the same flashes of greatness this season while also being inconsistent and injured. The starting staff, with the exception of Ramirez, has pitched well since the beginning of July. Sherrill has been scary to watch as a Red Sox fan, and Putz has been dominant.

Cleveland – CC Sabathia, Fausto Carmona, Paul Byrd, Jake Westbrook, Cliff Lee, Rafael Betancourt, Joe Borowski

Sabathia, Carmona, and Byrd make for a formidable front three, especially in a short playoff series. Lee has been awful this year, earning himself a demotion to the minors. While Betancourt has been outstanding (along with Rafael Perez), the rest of the bullpen is a clear weakness and could be a fatal flaw come October.

Detroit – Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson, Kenny Rogers, Andrew Miller/Chad Durbin, Fernando Rodney/Joel Zumaya, Todd Jones

Although injury riddled, Detroit has been pretty bad in the pitching department since the All Star break. Their team ERA of 5.57 is second worst in all of baseball during that span. Obviously, this is a talented staff and should turn things around. If healthy, they’d be tough to beat in a short series, as the A’s and Yankees can attest.

New York – Chien-Ming Wang, Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Mariano Rivera

Let’s get this out of the way: a Chamberlain and Rivera combo at the end of games is a scary thought for Red Sox fans everywhere. Also, most of this staff is playoff tested, so their experience is a positive for them. However, 3/5 of the rotation is older than 35, and Hughes, tremendously talented, has pitched only a handful of games. Their post-All Star break ERA: 4.56, 19^th in baseball. Let’s not kid ourselves: the Yankees could win with pitching if it gets hot, but are winning with offense. No team in recent memory has slugged their way to a championship.

Keep in mind that pitching is only part of the equation when evaluating a team. Plenty of teams with great pitching but poor offenses have failed to reach the postseason.

Next time, I’ll look into how the offenses rate and how the bats might determine who's playing in October and who's golfing.

What if the Celts rebuilt on draft night?

2007-08-16T22:26:00.000-04:00

Of course as we all know that the big news of the off-season is the Celtics’ acquisition of “The Big Ticket” Kevin Garnett. The minds of every fan can’t help but to envision banner #17 hung in the rafters (and possibly #18 or even #19 before the new Big Three are gone). However, it wasn’t too long ago that no one had much of a clue what Danny Ainge was up to; Ray Allen wasn’t going to bring The Green to glory, and if Ainge gave up the #5 pick in the draft to becoming a team merely above .500 and in the 6 or 7 spot in the playoffs, is he really fit for the job? So what if the Suns warmed to the idea of parting with Amare Stoudemire and made the swap for Garnett before we were fortunate enough to pry him from the McHales’ grasp? All we would have is a mediocre team with an unhappy locker room and Pierce another year closer to retirement. Now let’s rewind the clock back before Draft Night and put ourselves in the Celtics war room. What if they decided to rebuild instead of attempting to cash in now? What would be the best possible move to make?

Well here are some criteria that would lead us to the proper conclusion:

1. Part of the deal would need to include a top 10 draft pick to go along with our #5 pick. The #1 and #2 pick are obviously out because neither Portland nor Seattle would be crazy enough to part with one of the Oden/Durant tandem. This would make possible trade partners in order of picks: Atlanta, Memphis, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Charlotte, Chicago, and Sacramento.
2. The partnering team would need to be one star away from becoming a force and possibly make a push for a championship. That star of course would be Paul Pierce and this narrows the teams down to Memphis, Minnesota, and Chicago.
3. Preferably the Celtics would want to trade Pierce out of conference so he wouldn’t go Kobe Bryant on us whenever we faced off. This of course knocks out Chicago and leaves Memphis and Minnesota as the possible trade partners.

The next step is asking the question, “Who desires Paul the most and has the pieces that will give the Celtics the best chance to win in the future?” On first though one may say, “That’s easy, Minnesota. A Garnett and Pierce combination is as good as any duo in the league.” However, I believe on the contrary; that a trade with Memphis would benefit both teams more.
First of all after the trade was complete Memphis would have a better surrounding cast for The Truth and Pau Gasol than Minnesota would for Paul and KG (these players are before the trade):
Minnesota Memphis
Randy Foye Rudy Gay
Rashard McCants Hakim Warrick
Craig Smith Stromile Swift
Marko Jaric Kyle Lowry
#7 pick #4 pick

Not only is the talent in favor of Memphis but the contract matching situation is as well.:
Minesota Memphis
Jaric (4 years x 6m) Swift (1 year x 5.8m)
Trenton Hassell (3 years x 5.95m) Damon Stoudemire (2 years x 4.35m)

With these two factors in mind, deals involving each team would probably look like this:
Minnesota Memphis
Give Receive Give Receive
Jaric Pierce Swift Pierce
Hassell Stoudemire Rondo
Foye Gay Green
#7 #4

Main Players After Trade
Minesota Memphis
Garnett Pierce
Pierce Pau Gasol
Ricky Davis Hakim Warrick
Mark Blount Mike Miller
Rashard McCants Rondo Smith Green

Kyle Lowry

Darko Milicic (signed in off-season, would still the cap room)

Celtics Assests Post-Trade: Minnesota
PG: Rondo West Hassell #5, #7, #31
SG:Foye T. Allen
SF: Gomes Szcerbiack Green
PF: Jefferson Powe Scalabrine
C: Perkins Ratliff

In this scenario, the Celtics seem to be underutilizing talent like Gerald who is stuck behind Ryan and Wally, and whose value could have been better used in a trade. Also, we have Hassel and Jarics’ contracts for a few years when they do not really add much benefit to the team.

Celtics Assests Post-Trade: Memphis
PG: Damon Stoudemire Sebastian Telfair Pick #4,#5,#31
SG: Delonte West Tony Allen
SF: Ryan Gomes Wally Sczerbiack Rudy Gay
PF: Al Jefferson Leon Powe/Brian Scalabrine
C: Kendrick Perkins Theo Ratliff Stromile Swift

The obvious need right off the bat is a good young starting point guard and who better to go with than Mike Conley who Memphis ended up selecting this year. Conley is a lighting quick, Tony Parker like point guard who was far and beyond the best point guard prospect in this draft. That takes care of the #4 selection. The Celtics would have a few options with the #5 pick. I believe that the best bet for the Celtics would be going with Florida Gator’s Alum Corey Brewer. Brewer would give the Celtics another athletic wing, but this time whose calling card is defense. He is a proven winner and could be a vital part to a championship level team down the road. With #31 the Celts would presumably go with Big Baby Davis who fills more of a need now than Gabe Pruiit.
The final roster:
PG: Mike Conley Damon Stoudemire

SG: Delonte West Tony Allen (cut Powe/Telfair)
SF: Rudy Gay Wally Sczerbiack Corey Brewer
PF: Al Jefferson Ryan Gomes Brian Scalabrine
C: Stromile Swift Kendrick Perkins Theo Ratliff

This would leave the Celtics with a very solid core group of young guys to build around and with over 30 million coming off books in the next 2 years with the expiring contracts of Ratliff, Sczerbiack, Stoudemire, and Swift. There are players who have legitamit shots of becoming stars and solid contributors to any team. Now the Celtics have a few years to evaluate the talent, lock up who they want and have room for a free agent signing. I believe in the end we would have locked up Conley, Brewer, Gay and Big Al (playing the 1, 2, 3, and 4 respectively), and would have put together a hell of a team.
In no way am I against what Danny Ainge has been able to accomplish during this off-season. However, the Celtics did need to choose a direction, either stay young or go for it all. I believe if the decision was to go young then the Celtics could have a legitimite chance to compete consistently for an NBA Championship in 3 years.. Maybe the young guys may not have turned out how we would all have hoped like which is all too familiar, but maybe the Celtics new revamped team will never click either. The only certainty is that one way or another the Celtics were going to be an exciting team to watch either with young talent or all-star veterans running the show, and I like thousands of fans can once again be proud to say our team is the Boston Celtics.

It's (Definitely) Not October Yet, But We're Getting There

2007-08-16T16:55:00.000-04:00

I'm sure it has been noted, and rightfully so, that I am in fact a Yankees fan writing for a blog entitled "Fans of Boston". But I can assure you, those readers that share their passion for the Yankees the same way I do, that my heart indeed lies in the Bronx. What once started as a bandwagon story (I won't get into that here) for me, some twelve years ago, emerged into an obsession that completely engulfs my lifestyle for eight months out of the year. Not a day goes by that I am not aware of who the Yanks are playing, who is pitching, the score of the game, and who is playing lousily. Naturally, I am also aware of the same ‘statistics’ of that hated team from Boston. Being that the Yankees/Red Sox rivalry is so common, especially in the Northeast, it would only seem appropriate if I were to share a common living space with a group of friends that lives and breathes Boston sports. Thus is the story of my life.

So now that you know a little bit about me and where I stand on this whole “Boston Sports” blog name, I will get into the topic that drew you to my post in the first place: the New York Yankees.

As of three days ago, the Yankees were on a hot streak that resembled, a little, that streak in June where they won 10 out of 12 before being swept by the Rockies in Colorado and then losing 2 out of 3 to the Giants. Granted, this streak had been a little bit longer, going 24-8 since the All-Star break. Going into this week’s series with the Orioles, the Yankees had the best record in baseball since the All-Star break and were leading the majors in every offensive category. They gained 5.5 games on the rival Red Sox in the AL East and pulled to within a few percentage points of the lead in the AL Wild Card.

Much of these outcomes can be credited to the resurgence of Yankee hitters Hideki Matsui, Robinson Cano, and Bobby Abreu. Sure, Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter have helped too, but the lack of offensive output from these three in particular contributed in large part to the hole the Yankees are still trying to climb out of. I will get into the pitching aspect later. Since the All-Star Break, Matsui, Cano, and Abreu have batted .353, .402, and .339 respectively. Matsui has raised his batting average .026 points and has added 12 home runs. Cano has raised his BA .036 points while adding seven home runs. Abreu has ‘only’ six home runs since the break but has 38 RBI’s and raised his average .017 points. These players have shown the most noticeable offensive resurgence but I can’t leave out the contributions from players such as Melky Cabrera, Jorge Posada, or the surprising Shelley Duncan.

I am an offensive guy and I like to see games where the Yankees score a lot of runs. But I hate to see the Yankee pitchers give up a lot and put a huge burden on the offense night in and night out. This has seemed to be the case throughout the season so far. The Yankees pitching staff ranks 7^th in the American League in ERA and dead last in strikeouts. While its offense has flourished since the break, the pitching staff’s ERA has actually increased to 4.49. It will be interesting to see if the rotation of Wang, Pettitte, Clemens, Mussina, and Hughes can carry this team into the postseason because we all know that it is pitching that wins in October.

Chien-Ming Wang has struggled as of late, giving up 16 earned runs in his last four starts. Pettitte has been surprisingly consistent (but not great) this year. Whenever he takes the mound you can almost be assured that he is going to go 6-8 innings giving up 2-5 earned runs. I wish they could get the same consistency out of Clemens, Mussina, and Hughes, although it is a little early to know what you’re going to get from Phil Hughes. In order for the Yankees to be successful the rest of the way, the starters need to go deep into games and have at least a 3.7 ERA.

Working into the 7^th innings takes a lot of pressure off of the bullpen which is in the middle of the pack in team ERA. Luis Vizcaino has been pitching reasonably well lately and the recent call-up of Joba Chamberlain will hopefully add a much-needed shut-down reliever. I look for him to be the set-up man for Mariano Rivera, who has struggled as of late (0-1, 13.52 ERA, blown save in his last 3 starts) . If Mo can return to form (despite his recent struggles), the Yankees could have a reasonable (and I did say reasonable) pair to counter Boston’s 1-2 punch of Hideki Okajima/Eric Gagne and Jonathan Papelbon.

Looking forward, I do not believe that the Yankees will be able to catch the Red Sox in the American League East. The Yankees still have to play 20 games against teams over .500 while the Red Sox only have to play 16. Although, with six head-to-head games still to be played, it could get interesting if the Yankees can keep it close. But my focus right now is on the American League Wild Card. Though I think it will be a tight race, I believe the Yankees will sneak into the postseason ahead of Seattle and Cleveland, barring another offensive slump.

Derek Jeter recently said, “We need contributions from everyone and we seem to be getting that.” Look for the pitching staff to continue to keep the Yankees close and let the offense carry them into the postseason.