The Boston Sports Lab

The Red Sox-Dodgers Trade

2012-08-27T13:09:00.002-07:00

Chances are that if you care enough to read this blog, you already know the particulars of the Red Sox-Dodgers megatrade. You probably know who went where, along with how much money, and you know that it was the biggest salary transfer in MLB history. Chances are, you’ve even read a number of editorials or assessments of the trade.

Fortunately, here at the Boston Sports Lab, we’re not bound by the conventions or code of the journalist tribe. I don’t have to hedge my bets, speak diplomatically, or use vapid platitudes. In what follows, I’m going to tell you everything you need to know about the big-money-hallelujah purge, as well as exactly how you should feel about it.

So here are the bones: The Red Sox sent west Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, and Nick Punto, in exchange for Dodgers 1B James Loney and minor leaguers Rubby de la Rosa, Allen Webster, Jerry Sands, and Ivan de Jesus. Los Angeles will pay roughly $260 million of the $270 million remaining on those deals. Loney’s expiring contract (I’m going to make this basketball terminology happen in baseball) will take over first base with the big league club for the remainder of the season, de Jesus is already with Pawtucket, Webster will likely head to AA Portland, and de la Rosa and Sands, both of whom were on L.A.’s 40-man roster, will join the Sox in the offseason as PTBNL, because they were claimed off waivers by other teams. I’ll discuss those eastbound players later on.

The most important thing to know about this trade is that it’s awesome. There’s a simple basis for drawing that conclusion: the 2012 Red Sox, as constituted, were bad, and they weren’t going to get any better without a drastic overhaul. The team had virtually no financial flexibility, and with hundreds of millions of dollars tied up in aging, underperforming players, they were going nowhere fast over the next several years. We were unable to go after even mid-range free agents last winter, the Hiroki Kurodas of the world who can make a big impact at a reasonable price and plug gaps in a roster. That’s another simple rule of thumb: having lots of money to spend is good. The Sox had transformed into a gimpy golem of bad contracts and no-can-do personalities, and even though golems are the bee's knees in Jewish folklore, I imagine (in my head) that they move ploddingly and with little verve or grace.

Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett had legitimately (but not literally) unmovable contracts. They are due money well over their market values as the two age into their 30s, and it’s rare to see that type of player change teams. ANY scenario in which another organization is willing to assume those contacts is a big coup for the Sox. In order for the Dodgers to do so, the Red Sox had to give them what they really wanted -- Adrian Gonzalez. He’s a premium bat and hard to replace, but he’s also being paid at or close to his value and has struggled this year, so his contract is hardly a bargain. To be honest, I’ve grown very fond of Gonzalez and I’m going to miss him, but this is for the best. Most of all, remember that the only way we could unburden ourselves from the albatross contracts of Beckett and Crawford was to give up A-Gon as well. The reason this wasn’t necessarily a bad deal for the Dodgers (although it may look that way in a few years), is that all three of these “stars” are worth more in L.A. than they are in Boston (I put “stars” in quotations to backhandedly show my disdain). Gonzalez, as a Mexican-American from southern California, is a P.R. gem for the Dodgers and makes that lineup rock solid. Beckett should benefit heavily from playing in the pitcher career rehabilitation spa that is the N.L. West. And Crawford, once he recovers from surgery, should have a better chance to succeed in a less critical media market and with fans who don’t already resent him (for sucking). That’s important to keep in mind -- even if we see those three players go on to play well for the Dodgers, that doesn’t mean they would have played as well in Boston. This is still a good deal for the Sox. As fans, we’ve been conditioned to expect to be the ones acquiring big name players rather than giving them away. Let me tell you that this move makes a ton of baseball sense. This isn’t the Sox throwing in the towel. This is the Sox putting a dirty towel in the laundry hamper and getting a nice, clean towel that just came out of the dryer and feels like a warm blanket.

In fact, this is a good deal even if were purely a salary dump, with no prospects coming back to Boston. The salary relief from the deal isn’t exactly priceless, because it’s worth about $260 million, but it sure feels cathartic. I’m happy to report, though, that the Sox were able to obtain a few good players in return. The position players, de Jesus and Sands, have both put up excellent numbers in the minors but struggled a bit in brief major league appearances. They profile as bench/utility players. Even if they never make it past AAA, it’s no great loss, and maybe they’ll surprise us by becoming regular major league contributors. Regardless, the most important pieces from the Dodgers are the two pitchers, de la Rosa and Webster.

Rubby de la Rosa is a 23 year-old right hander with modest size and a big arm. He consistently throws his fastball in the mid-to-high 90s to go along with a decent slider/changeup combo. His command can be spotty but the fastball is a true plus plus pitch. If de la Rosa can sharpen up his command, cut down on walks, and improve his secondary offerings, he could end up as a #2 starter. At worst, he can probably be a shutdown reliever. After logging 60.2 big league innings last year and showing he has the stuff to get major leaguers out, he underwent TJ surgery and just recently returned to game action. His fastball is already back to the high 90s. I’m also going to insist on calling him “Rubby,” even though his name is pronounced “Ruby.” “Rubby” is distinguishing and mildly funny, and I suggest you follow my lead on this.

I have even higher hopes for Allen Webster, who looks like he has the makings of a #2 or #3 starter. He has a low-to-mid 90s fastball with powerful sinking action, and he gets a huge number of ground balls with it. His slider, curveball, and changeup can all be plus at times, and he throws all four pitches with plus control. If all goes well, we could see Webster in the Boston rotation as early as late next year. He’s been compared to Derek Lowe on account of his sinker, and it’s probably fair to hope he’ll put up solid numbers and solidify the rotation.

The inclusion of these last two prospects in the deal indicates that the Red Sox front office is (re)committing itself to home-grown pitching, without which it’s hard to contend these days. Outside of last year’s first round pick, Matt Barnes, the Sox had little in the way of pitching prospects down on the farm. Replenishing that pipeline has to be a priority. It’s probably unrealistic to think the Sox will start spouting out excellent starting pitchers the way the Rays have over the past five years (and, let’s face it, what the Rays have done is unprecedented and absolutely remarkable), but the Red Sox really don’t have to. They can afford to trade for or go buy a certain amount of pitching, but the minor league system has to be the foundation of the rebuilding process. #3 pitchers are nothing to scoff at. They’re really important.

This blockbuster trade has two great benefits for the Sox -- it provides a huge amount of financial flexibility going forward, and it give the front office a chance to rebrand the team’s identity. I’m not going to get into whether the Sox’s star players had attitude problems, ate fried chicken, or participated in a mid-season mutiny. It’s been done, and I frankly don’t really care. I appreciate the Boston sports media for their passion, but the insatiable appetite for controversy is probably detrimental to player performance, and journalists get a pass for inciting problems instead of just reporting them.

For the first time in years, I’m excited by the possibilities for this franchise. I’d love to see us move forward with exciting, home-grown players. As Pittsburgh, Washington, and Baltimore have demonstrated this year, a young, hungry team can rise up to be more than the sum of its parts; the 2012 Red Sox have emphatically shown that big-name, overcompensated stars can be spectacularly less than the sum of theirs. Will Middlebrooks can be a cornerstone. We can expect solid contributions from Lavarnway and Iglesias. Pedroia and Lester are already there, and we’ll have to see what happens with Ellsbury over the next 15 months. Stay tuned in 2013 and 2014 for the heirs to the kingdom -- Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Matt Barnes. And just for kicks, some more exciting names to track: Bryce Brentz, Henry Owens, Garin Cecchini, Blake Swihart, Deven Marrero, and Drake Britton.

This trade is just the starting point for the team’s make-over, and Cherington et al will have to follow this up with more smart moves, but I have high hopes for what’s to come.

Celtics Roster Reset

2012-07-11T22:58:00.001-07:00

With free agency waning, we now have The New Look Celtics. Or, perhaps more appropriately, The Same Old Celtics with a few new tricks. Let's take a look at the roster and see what we've got.

On the Payroll Entering Offseason:

Paul Pierce, $16.8M

Rajon Rondo, $11M

Avery Bradley, $1.6M

JaJuan Johnson, $1.1M

E'Twaun Moore, $0.8M

Sean Williams, $0.9M

Draft Picks Already Signed to Deals:

Jared Sullinger, $1.3M

Fab Melo, $1.3M

Kris Joseph, $0.5M

Contracts Signed During Free Agency:

Kevin Garnett, 3-year, $34M

Jason Terry, 3-year, $15M

Brandon Bass, 3-year, $20M

Jeff Green, 4-year, $36M

Negotiations Pending:

Keyon Dooling

Marquis Daniels

Mickael Pietrus

Greg Stiemsma

Courtney Lee

Chris Wilcox

This leaves the C's spending a lot more money this year than I figured. Here's the approximate current payroll after factoring in the newest signings:

Paul Pierce, $16.8M

Kevin Garnett, $11.5M

Rajon Rondo, $11M

Jeff Green, $9M

Brandon Bass, $7M

Jason Terry, $5M

Avery Bradley, $1.6M

Jared Sullinger, $1.3M

Fab Melo, $1.3M

JaJuan Johnson, $1.1M

Sean Williams, $0.9M

E'Twaun Moore, $0.8M

Kris Joseph, $0.5M

According to the jargon-filled and convoluted rules of the new CBA, because the Celtics used the full mid-level exception to sign Jason Terry, they now face a hard salary cap of $74M. The payroll as it currently stands amounts to about $68M, give or take. (Sean Williams and E'Twaun Moore do not have guaranteed contracts -- and my guess is that Williams will not make the 15-man roster at the end of training camp -- so that number may ultimately be less.) In any case, with Stiemsma likely leaving for the Timberwolves, this payroll leaves the Celts with about $6M to sign Courtney Lee and/or re-sign the likes of Wilcox, Pietrus, Daniels, and Dooling.

Of all the names listed above that are currently under contract, I think 12 out of the 13 will make the 15-man roster -- all but Williams. Moore and Johnson were on the team last year, and all three of this year's draft picks have impressed thus far in summer league. This leaves the depth chart looking as follows:

PG: Rondo, Terry

SG: Bradley, Moore

SF: Pierce, Green, Joseph

PF: Bass, Sullinger, Johnson

C: Garnett, Melo

Let's say we add Dooling, Courtney Lee, and Wilcox, which, in a perfect world, might just be an affordable scenario. That leaves the Celtics with the following 15-man roster:

PG: Rondo, Terry, Dooling

SG: Bradley, Lee, Moore

SF: Pierce, Green, Joseph

PF: Bass, Sullinger, Johnson

C: Garnett, Wilcox, Melo

That depth chart has several elements that make me feel great about our chances next year:

(1) The same exact starting five featured in this year's playoffs. Hopefully (knock on wood) improved by the health of Paul Pierce's legs and Avery Bradley's shoulders, as well as by bearing a smaller burden down the line due to a higher quality bench.

(2) Three rotation players (Jason Terry, Courtney Lee, Jeff Green) who can play significant minutes every night over the course of a playoff series. Four if you count Chris Wilcox.

(3) Two veteran-savvy players who can come off the bench and fill minutes in Keyon Dooling (31) and Wilcox (29). They're not going to give you All-Star production, and at best they play 5-10 minutes a night in a series against the Heat. But they're great locker room guys, total team players, and the type of guys who will be ready to contribute at the drop of a hat.

(4) Five players drafted in the last two years in Moore, Joseph, Sullinger, Johnson, and Melo. Melo and Joseph will be projects with upside, but Moore, Johnson, and Sullinger all have the potential to post Avery-Bradley-style breakout seasons and find themselves thrust into the nightly rotation come playoff time (Sullinger perhaps less so, due to Doc's puritanical reluctance to playing rookies). Moore would be the best candidate for such a breakthrough under normal circumstances, but in such a guard-heavy (read:small) roster, it may be Johnson and Sullinger who get the fairer chance.

(5) A great locker room. Rondo, for all his faults, will get better and better as his ownership over the team grows. Pierce is the team's beating heart. Garnett brings the grit and balls -- one of the best big men in the league as well as one of the best veterans you could possibly have in your locker room, renowned for spending time teaching the young guys how it's done. Bradley is a scrapper and immediate proof that hard work and commitment to the team pays off. Bass loves the team and spoke strongly of his desire to return this offseason (same for Mickael Pietrus). Green spent the entire season around the team and must be dying to get back on the court (Wilcox too). Jason Terry and Courtney Lee have long-standing reputations as excellent character guys and great teammates. Dooling and Daniels we know are great off the bench. And the rest are young guys, eager for playing time and desperate to prove that they belong in the league.

(6) A ridiculous amount of potential down the line. Rondo, Bradley, Moore, Green, Joseph, Sullinger, Johnson, and Melo are all 26 or younger. While it's extremely unlikely that all of these players are with the Celtics four years from now, and even less likely that all (or even the majority) of these players reaching their respective ceilings, here's what those ceilings look like:

Player Ceiling

Rajon Rondo ... Chris Paul

Avery Bradley ... Scottie Pippen

E'Twaun Moore ... Jason Terry

Kris Joseph ... Marvin Williams

Jeff Green ... Danny Granger

Jared Sullinger ... Kevin Love

JaJuan Johnson ... Marcus Camby

Fab Melo ... Marcus Camby

Rondo and Bradley are already well on their respective ways. Sullinger has already compared himself to Kevin Love, and, if he slims down significantly, stays healthy, and the back issues never surface, he just might get there. Green and Melo will need a few breaks, Moore and Johnson will need a few more. But the bottom line is this: despite being derided as a geriatric clinic with Garnett and Pierce still at the helm, this Celtics organization has been downright stockpiling young talent. Four years down the line, a starting lineup of Rondo-Bradley-Green-Sullinger-Melo could end up being quite the juggernaut.

----

All in all, I think what we've got looks pretty good. It would be great to sign Courtney Lee, and then we should go hard after Wilcox, Pietrus, Daniels, and Dooling, in that order (although Pietrus and Daniels might outprice us and I think Dooling at the veteran's minimum would be the better value).

The only negative aspects of this roster are the lack of size, which is looking like less and less of a problem in today's NBA, and the injury risk of a team built around Pierce and Garnett. In the best case, this is a team that could easily reach the Eastern Conference Finals again and, if healthy, maybe even surprise the Heat. I guess only time will tell.

How Can the Celtics Be Like the Spurs?

2012-05-25T10:08:00.004-07:00

"I like role players who aren't very good but have a skill."
-Gregg Popovich

I already know how this Celtics season is going to end. They'll win Game 7 on Saturday. Then they'll put forth a good effort but ultimately lose in 6 to a Miami team that is healthier and more talented.

With Bradley out for the season, Ray and Stiemsma shells of themselves, and Pierce and Pietrus severely limited, the Celtics have no one to guard Wade, no bigs to provide solid minutes with KG on the bench, and just a lack of firepower overall. Their season is on the ropes. They would've had a chance against Miami -- maybe even looked like the favorites -- if they could have knocked off Atlanta and Philly in five games apiece, but now, without rest and without Bradley, the odds look insurmountable.

Meanwhile, across the country, a similarly old and rag-tag team, the San Antonio Spurs, looks like the class of the league and a heavy favorite to knock off Miami if they can get past the Thunder. The Celtics need to become this team.

Check out the All-NBA teams, released yesterday:

2011-12 ALL-NBA FIRST TEAM
Forward LeBron James, Miami (118) 596
Forward Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City (117) 591
Center Dwight Howard, Orlando (75) 476
Guard Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers (104) 568
Guard Chris Paul, L.A. Clippers (74) 484

2011-12 ALL-NBA SECOND TEAM
Forward Kevin Love, Minnesota (16) 365
Forward Blake Griffin, L.A. Clippers 170
Center Andrew Bynum, L.A. Lakers (33) 400
Guard Tony Parker, San Antonio (41) 367
Guard Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City (5) 239

2011-12 ALL-NBA THIRD TEAM
Forward Carmelo Anthony, New York (1) 154
Forward Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas 136
Center Tyson Chandler, New York (4) 60
Guard Dwyane Wade, Miami (1) 235
Guard Rajon Rondo, Boston (4) 142

Now think about the teams that legitimately contended for the title this year: the Spurs, Thunder, Lakers, and Clippers in the West, and the Bulls and Heat (and until recently, the Celtics) in the East.

Those contenders fall into two main classes: the superstar-heavy teams (Thunder, Lakers, Clippers, Heat) and the depth teams (Spurs and Bulls). In the first group you have four clubs that each possess two superstars in their prime. By superstar I mean a top-10 player in the world. You've got Miami with LBJ and Wade (who, despite missing weeks with injury, finished 4 votes shy of the All-NBA second team and is clearly top-10 in the NBA). You've got the Thunder with Durant and Westbrook. You've got the Lakers with Kobe and Bynum. And you've got the Clippers with CP3 and Blake.

In the second group, you have two teams built legitimately around depth and a team concept. The Spurs have a second team point guard in Tony Parker and then surround him with a 10-man rotation (Dunca, Diaw, Green, Leonard, Ginobili, Jackson, Bonner, Neal, Splitter, and Blair) that combines savvy veterans and former all-stars with depth pieces and role players. The Bulls actually fall somewhere in between these two classes, surrounding Rose and Deng with a similarly deep cohort of Boozer, Noah, Korver, Rip, Taj, Asik, Brewer, and Watson.

The Celtics are caught in between and need to go one way or the other as they move into the post-Big-3 era. I think they ought to move toward the latter group.

Right now, the Celtics have an absolute maximum of 6 players you can trust to see the floor in a playoff game: Rondo, Pierce, Garnett, Ray Allen, Brandon Bass, and Avery Bradley. This postseason I might not even count Ray among that group. Pietrus, Stiemsma, and Dooling would all qualify as borderline when healthy. I like Pietrus for perimeter defense and scoring. Stiemsma maybe sneaks into the bottom of an 11-man rotation, where he can play 10 solid minutes and score some with 4 of the better players. And Dooling is a good locker-room glue-guy but not much help on the court. Of these three, I think only a healthy Pietrus would see any minutes on the Spurs.

The Celtics have the following players under contract in 2012-13 for the following prices:

Paul Pierce -- $16.7M
Rajon Rondo -- $11.0M
Brandon Bass -- $4.0M
Avery Bradley -- $1.6M
JaJuan Johnson --$1.2M

Bringing us to a total of about $35M. If I'm Danny Ainge, I throw Garnett a 2-year, $20M offer (some thank-you money included for all he's done for the team). I bring Dooling back for $2M a year (generous but fair given his sideline and locker-room contributions). I bring Pietrus back for $1M a year (prove-it-or-you're-gone situation). And I pick up Stiemsma's $1M deal (similar prove-it situation). That gives me the entire starting lineup (Rondo-Bradley-Pierce-Bass-KG) for $44M and the only bench pieces that mattered for $4M. The only guy who leaves is Ray Allen (I'm assuming somebody will overpay for him), allowing the Celtics to bring back virtually the entire 2011-2012 contending squad almost completely intact. Maybe even amnesty JaJuan Johnson for good measure.

The biggest difference, though, is that this team would cost $48M instead of $88M. That would basically allow the Celtics to start rebuilding the team with $30M-$40M of open cap space, without having to go through the anguish of a losing season and shitty team. Rebuilding without rebuilding.

So at this point I've got Rondo-Bradley-Pierce-Bass-KG starting and Pietrus-Dooling-Stiemsma on the bench. For $48M and if healthy, that's the outline of a Spurs-like juggernaut that could easily take on the best of the Eastern Conference. The key is using that next $30M to grab the Danny Greens, Gary Neals, Kawhi Leonards and Matt Bonners.

That's not an easy task but it's eminently doable. It involves looking for those "role players who aren't very good but have a skill." Maybe Jeff Green comes back and contributes playing behind Pierce. Maybe I draft Draymond Green and he contributes behind Bass. Maybe I find a good young big man who can rebound, defend, and share minutes with Stiemsma. Maybe I pay up for Ersan Ilyasova. Maybe I find a couple of guys who can knock down 3s.

Whatever course of action Ainge charts, I'd love to see a team with depth, variety, and versatility come next October. You don't need LeBron-Wade-Bosh or Durant-Westbrook-Harden to win a title in this league. In fact, that might not even be the best way to go about it. What you do need is a deep rotation that can withstand injury and a large group of players with diverse skill sets to draw upon.

The San Antonio Spurs have a machine out on the court for all 48 minutes, every night. It doesn't matter who's playing at any given time, it doesn't matter who's on the sidelines. It doesn't start or end with any one guy (although there's something to be said for the leadership of Parker and Duncan in fostering the team concept). It's about the collection of players and the team concept under which they play. And there's no reason the Celtics can't put together something similar this offseason.

Speak of the Devils

2012-05-24T12:51:00.001-07:00

So, I was at Madison Square Garden last night for Rangers-Devils. Watched the Devils take a 3-0 lead in the first 5 minutes of play, then slowly give it back over the next 2 and a half periods. Saw the 3-3 tie broken by Carter's game-winning goal, followed by an empty-netter to boot. Thoughts from the game:

-The Devils certainly look like the better team out there. I thought the Prust and Gaborik goals were total softies that Brodeur badly misplayed, while all 4 Devils' goals on Lundqvist were legitimate plays made by the Devils.

-The home-ice advantage in the NHL is truly mystifying. The Rangers seem like they have a pretty fierce crowd at MSG and yet they're a paltry 6-5 there over the course of these playoffs, while they're 4-4 in road games. Same goes for the Kings, who look unbeatable on the road yet have lost two closeout games at home. Go figure.

-Dainius Zubrus looked like he was all over the ice for NJD. Same goes for Parise. Whenever those two were out there it just seemed like the Devils completely controlled the action.

-This whole series is a very interesting role reversal from the Rangers-Devils matchups of the 90s with the Devils' trap against the Rangers' goal-scorers. Now it's just the opposite. You've got a very aggressive Devils' attack against a defensive-minded Rangers team that wants to block shots and go on the counter.

-The Rangers looked tired, especially in the first 10 minutes of the game and in the last 10. You could smell that last goal coming for the NJD. Guys like Staal, McDonagh, and Del Zotto looked like they just wanted to get off the ice.

-That being said, the Rangers out-hustled and generally out-toughed the Devils the entire second period and much of the third. Prust and Gaborik were both pure hustle goals while Callahan scored on a very gritty Rangers attack.

-That being said(2), I think the Devils are just better at this point. All their goals felt like sure things, and some of their passes in the neutral zone are just really pretty. It looked like the Rangers just didn't have an answer for some Devils attacks.

-The "Marty" cheer after NYR tied it up was absolutely deafening. Deafening. And pretty cool, too. With all the NYR towels waving toward him it almost looked like the stadium was just collapsing in on him. And the guy deserved it -- he was awful. As bad as Lundqvist looks from the box score (4 goals on 16 shots) Brodeur looked worse based on the chances he faced.

All in all, I'd put my money on the Devils at this point. The Rangers seem like the deeper, more athletic squad and they definitely have the better goalie, but the Devils have a much more purposeful offensive attack and what looks like more reliable pieces up and down the roster. The Rangers might have some magic left but it's tough for me to see this Devils team losing twice in a row now.

An Old-Fashioned Bass-Kickin'

2012-05-21T21:53:00.003-07:00

Holy Bass, Batman! Brandon Bass was unbelievable tonight: 27 pts, 9-13 FG, 9-10 FT. Unbelievable. The Celtics will never lose a game in which they get those numbers from Bass.

To be fair, a lot of credit goes to Rondo and Pierce for assisting him on those buckets. But Bass hit jumper after jumper and he slammed home every basket in the paint, taking no chances with the Sixers' defenders. He also defended well and pulled down 6 rebounds.

Bass played 37 minutes tonight after averaging less than 25 in these playoffs. This helped the Celtics in so many ways, even beyond the added offense. For one thing, it limited Ryan Hollins' minutes; he played only 8 after 10, 14, 16, and 15 in Games 1-4. Hollins has been lukewarm to terrible throughout this series and there is no reason he should be playing 15 with Bass playing less than 25.

In any case, big win for the C's. Credit also to Stiemsma (10 points in 14 minutes), Rondo (13 pts / 14 asts), Truth (39 solid minutes on both sides of the ball) and KG (20 pts and a +17).

The problem now becomes the 2-guard spot with Bradley recuperating. Bradley is arguably the second most important Celtic after Garnett (his adjusted plus-minus, for the entire season but especially these playoffs, is second only to Garnett and no one else is close) and they badly miss his defense on the perimeter. Ray Allen has looked simply awful -- clearly hindered by injury -- and looked by far the weakest member of the starting lineup tonight. That shoulder injury to Bradley could spell trouble for the C's, if not in this series than the next one.

A close-out on Wednesday would be huge, but I have learned not to expect much when the Celtics have a series lead. Hopefully they can get it done this time in Philly.

What Went Wrong in Game 2

2012-05-14T20:29:00.004-07:00

Here are the +/- for the Celtics' bigs over the past two games:

Garnett +20
Hollins -10
Bass -13
Stiemsma -19

versus these for the Sixers:

Brand -4
Hawes -7
Young -10
Allen +27

What these numbers say is that Garnett dominates Brand and Hawes when he is on the floor. But as soon as he comes up and Lavoy Allen gets up from the Sixers' bench, the tables are turned and Allen just shreds Hollins and Stiemsma down low.

This is the bane of the 2012 Celtics: no quality bigs to play behind Garnett. Even calling Bass a big man is really generous; he's really a small power forward. With KG on the bench, it comes down to Hollins and Stiemsma, and they just aren't getting it done.

The point differential is one thing, but here's another: Stiemsma and Hollins collected 1 rebound between the two of them over a combined 25 minutes of playing time. That's 1 rebound for two guys, both 7-footers, whose only responsibilities are to play defense and rebound the basketball in KG's absence. That's despicable and it's no wonder Philly is dominating the bench play.

Other Problems:

1. That was by far the worst playoff game I've ever seen Paul Pierce play. 2-9 for 7 points with 5 turnovers was the stat line but it looked even worse than that. All 5 turnovers were hideous, a few of those shots were way off, and he just looked completely stymied for the entire game. To be fair, the defense on Iguodala was solid and included a nice block. But The Truth was nowhere to be found tonight.

2. Brandon Bass. After being the star of the first three minutes of the game with 6 points on 3 FG, Bass proceeded to miss 9 of his next 10 shots, including several drives to the basket concluding in him losing the ball and berating the referee after the no-call. The Celtics need Bass in this series and we need him big time.

3. We are terrible with Bradley off the floor. He posted a +18 over the course of this game but that doesn't even capture the impact of his defense. Without him on the floor, Rondo, Ray, and Dooling have to work much harder and one of Turner, Holiday, and Lou ends up getting hot. Huge momentum swing with him out of the game and I really hope he is healthy.

Round Two: Celtics-Sixers

2012-05-13T20:17:00.001-07:00

My thoughts with Game One in the bank:

Offensively, the Celtics got very little from anyone other than KG (29 and 11) and Rondo (triple-double). Pierce had 14 but it was a quiet 14, with several borderline foul calls on sloppy-looking drives. That needs to change going forward in the series. There's no way KG will average 30 points when all is said and done, and my guess is that Pierce will continue to be limited by the combination sprained-MCL and fierce-Iggy-defense. So the Celtics need scoring from Ray Allen, Brandon Bass, and Mickael Pietrus if they're going to keep winning.

I don't think increased production from the secondary scorers is too much to ask for. The Hawks were able to limit those guys by switching defenders in pick-and-roll situations, but it doesn't look like Philly plans to rely on too many switches. Off the pick-and-roll, Rondo should be able to find Allen, Pietrus, and especially Bass for open jumpers.

Defensively, the Celtics got killed down-low. The Sixers pounded it down low to Hawes, Allen, Brand, and Young and produced easy buckets seemingly at will. It remains a mystery why they didn't keep going to Hawes late in fourth. The Sixers' dominance in the paint means that we're going to need a big series out of ... gulp ... Ryan Hollins? Stiemsma seems to have completely lost any and all spark from the regular season, leading Doc to play Hollins for big minutes throughout the Hawks series and into Game One. We need a big defensive effort from him to keep the Sixers' bigs in check.

Overall, I worry about the Sixers' frontcourt as the series progresses. Bass evidently doesn't play a lick of defense (one of many reasons to be increasingly frustrated with his presence on the floor in key moments), leaving the Celtics with Garnett, Hollins, and Stiemsma as their only bigs. Given Garnett's age, Stiemsma's struggles and Hollins' inexperience, the matchup down-low seems to bode poorly for the C's.

That said, the Celtics own a huge advantage in Avery Bradley. Whenever Bradley is on the floor, Doc can essentially choose one Sixers' player that he wants to shut down for the entirety of Bradley's playing time (it was Jrue Holiday in the first half and Evan Turner in the second). This will be a major boon to the Celtics in coming games and hopefully lead to reverberating frustrations for the Sixers.

In general, the Celtics are ridiculously banged-up, while the Sixers are a good-not-great team with tremendous athleticism. The scales look pretty even to me. I think Philly might pick off one of their home games and possibly both, forcing the Celtics to forego potential rest again and fight this series well into a second week. It's essential to win out as early as possible and start resting up for the Heat, but I don't think the Celtics will be so lucky. With a tough, young, run-and-gun opponent I expect at least two losses before the flight to South Beach.

Celtics in 6.

Elsewhere in the NBA:

Heat-Pacers. Heat lead 1-0.

I'd love to see the Pacers win this series, or at least push it to 6-7 games, but I'm skeptical. They just don't have enough firepower to match Wade and LeBron (who won today even without Bosh for the second half). Frank Vogel was foolish to run his mouth earlier this week, and compounded that mistake by inexplicably abandoning the obvious (and successful) strategy of feeding Hibbert and West in the low post, leading to the Heat's effortless second-half comeback. I say the Pacers notch one heroic victory before the Heat cap off another gentleman's sweep.

Spurs-Clippers.

Gosh. Not surprised at all by the Spurs sweep (had them in 5) but I am surprised to see the Clippers here. I guess I overestimated the Grizzlies, though, because I stand by what I wrote about them. There's really not much to this team other than Chris Paul. The Spurs are much deeper, much smarter, and dramatically more talented on the wing. Add to that that this might be the league's best coach squaring off against its worst, and it's an overwhelming advantage: San Antonio. That said, I find it hard to believe that Chris Paul doesn't snag one game out of the first four, so I'll predict once again Spurs in 5.

Thunder-Lakers.

Boy, did the Lakers look bad against Denver. Pau with 3 points in Game 6? Bynum almost invisible on multiple nights? Kobe basically called all of them out, saying that Artest is the only teammate he can rely on to play hard and have his back. And while I do agree that Pau and Bynum are despicable and lethargic (Bynum especially), there are also basketball reasons to be cited here. The Lakers get nothing from the wings, so assuming Kobe is well covered the defense can immediately double once the ball moves down to the post. The Thunder have a huge advantage over the Nuggets in this respect because they feature two of the best post defenders in the league with Perkins and Ibaka. Perkins can cover Bynum straight-up and Ibaka should eat Gasol alive, leaving them several options to take on Kobe on the perimeter. That said, and despite the fact that I think the Lakers deserve to bow out of these playoffs as soon as possible, I don't believe in the Thunder's perimeter defense at all. I think it's as weak as Perkins and Ibaka are strong, as illustrated by Kobe terrorizing them in an impressive late-season Lakers victory. The Thunder will win but it won't be as easy as some are predicting. OKC in 7.

The Red Sox Suck.

2012-05-09T21:59:00.001-07:00

Wow. The Red Sox are a disgrace.

We currently own the fourth-worst record in the Major Leagues, narrowly beating out the Twins, Royals, and Padres. Recent misadventures include a weekend sweep by the Baltimore Orioles (in Fenway no less), dropping 2 out of 3 to the mediocre-at-best Oakland A's, and, concluded just hours ago, dropping 2 out of 3 to the aforementioned hapless Royals.

This is by far the worst Red Sox team since I've been a fan. They will be nowhere near the playoffs and with good reason. Here are the principal objects of my current ire:

1. Josh Beckett. I'm so tired of this guy and his bullshit. He was completely unapologetic after the Fried Chicken fiasco last year, despite putting on more weight and pitching worse than any other pitcher on staff. Today, it comes out that Beckett played a full round of golf last week despite nursing a tight lateral muscle, and then two days later he misses a start due to the same tightness. "I would say that was less than the best thing to do on that day off," said Bobby V. Ya think so, Bobby?

As a World Series winner, a veteran, and the No. 1 starter last season, you expect a degree of leadership and the Sox couldn't have gotten any less from Beckett over the last 10 months. So disappointing, and I would not be sad to see the two parties part ways in the near future.

2. Clay Buchholz. I'm done waiting for this guy to come around and be the pitcher everybody thinks he can be. It's been six years now, and only one out of six with an ERA under 3. Currently boasting a 9.09 ERA on the season, and Peter Gammons reports that he's now the second pitcher ever -- in the HISTORY OF BASEBALL -- to give up 5 ER in each of his first six starts to a season.

Apparently the Sox are trying to send him down to the minors and they feel "pretty confident" he would clear waivers. They can't move him now, though, because every potential replacement is injured.

3. Jon Lester. Normally I'm a fan, but 4.29 ERA is just not cutting it as an ace. That's a fourth or fifth starter's ERA right there.

4. The entire bullpen. Seriously, where did we get some of these guys? Aceves looked solid last year but has blown a couple of saves already and his ERA is above 6. (Somebody recently called him a double-agent for the Yankees, which I think might be worth investigating). Vicente Padilla has given up 9 ER in 13 innings. Mark Melancon's ERA is pushing fifty.

5. Carl Crawford. No explanation necessary.

Top to bottom, this is easily the worst Red Sox pitching staff of the past 15 years and probably one of the worst in the league right now. Thank God for Ryan Sweeney and Will Middlebrooks or we might have the worst record in baseball. I wouldn't be surprised if we soon do.

Finish Them!

2012-05-07T10:51:00.000-07:00

Time to get rid of this personality-less, identity-less Hawks team. We've broken their spirit. Last night, they brought back Smith, they brought back Horford for his first minutes since January, and we blow them out of the building. We lead by 23 at half, and 37 in the third quarter. And we take a 3-1 series lead that's good for a series win 95% of the time in the 16-team playoff format.

Round 1 of the playoffs has been pretty lame. Right now we've got 5 teams up 3-1 (Sixers, Heat, Pacers, Celtics, Lakers), 1 team up 3-0 (Spurs), and 1 team already on to Round 2 with a sweep (Thunder). Only one series looks like it might get interesting, with the Clippers up 2-1 on the Grizz.

Round 2 should be much more fun, especially Celtics-Sixers (knock) in the East and Lakers-Thunder out West. Stay tuned.

Joseph Addai and the running game

2012-05-07T07:45:00.000-07:00

I’ll always remember Joseph Addai for two things. The first is the way he and Lawrence Maroney are linked in my mind as two first-round running backs that went to the Colts and Patriots, respectively, at a time when those two teams seemed to meet in the playoffs every year. Given that Maroney is one of the more unfortunate first-round picks in Belichick’s tenure, that 2006 draft sticks with me.

The second thing Addai calls to mind is the 2006 AFC Championship game against those Colts, a game the Patriots had well in-hand before a devastating collapse in the second half. Addai gashed our defense repeatedly and was a big part of an Indianapolis offense for which the Pats had no answer; the image of Addai running it in for the winning touchdown with a minute remaining is still burned in the back of my mind. The Colts went on to defeat the Chicago Bears easily in the Super Bowl two weeks later, and I actually think of 2006 as the year we should have won our fourth Lombardi Trophy, more so than even 2007 or 2011. It’s a sad truth of fandom that the pain of Games That Could Have Been is often greater than the satisfaction of Games That Were.

Now comes the news that the Patriots are bringing Addai on board. I find that I hold no grudge against the 30 year-old, maybe because it seems like so long since there was any real heated emotion in the Patriots-Colts “rivalry.” It wouldn't hurt to make some memories of Addai that don't involve heartbreak and disappointment. It also makes sense to build depth at running back at a time when multiple-back systems are all the rage and injuries seem to plague the position. Addai has an injury history himself, having missed significant time each of the past four years and seen his production drop every season since his rookie year. Addai joins Danny Woodhead, Shane Vereen, and Stevan Ridley on the roster.

Ideally, Addai would provide some leadership and mentoring for 2011 draftees Vereen (second round) and Ridley (third round), as the latter two take the reins at RB and get the majority of the carries. Like Ridley, Addai is an LSU product, which could help legitimize his position as a role model for the younger players. I suspect that any situation in which Addai becomes the lead back means that something has gone wrong with Belichick’s master plan. Woodhead is a solid change-of-pace option, with toughness, elusiveness, and good skills as a receiver, but he isn’t the kind of talent that changes games. Vereen was injured for most of last season, and while Ridley got a fair number of carries, he had some ball-security issues that cost him playing time. With a full year of conditioning and apprenticeship under their belts, hopefully the two young ‘uns are now ready for a larger role.

Before being drafted, Vereen had a fantastic 2010-11 season at Cal, putting up 1,167 yards and 13 TDs. A track athlete in college, he’s a burner who also has the strength to take on contact, and he looked outstanding in the preseason last year until hurting his hamstring. Ridley (or, as my friends like to call him, The Second Coming) is larger and a bit more of a bruiser, providing a nice complement in the backfield. He had a nearly identical final year at Louisiana State (1,147/15 in 2010).

Perhaps more than anything, it will be interesting to see how the two perform as pass-catchers and protectors. If they can become complete backs, they won’t come off the field much and will go a long way towards solidifying a position that hasn’t had a consistent, dynamic element in years. New England’s strong passing attack would benefit from having a legitimate rushing threat to draw attention (and safeties); the running game already has the advantage of seeing fewer men in the box, since defenses tend to post extra defensive backs against Tom Brady. At the very least, an improved rushing attack keeps opponents guessing, produces better down-and-distance situations, increases time of possession (which helps our defense quite a bit--the Pats' struggles stopping opponents on third down have resulted in lots of long series for Wilfork and co.), and could save some wear-and-tear on Brady.

Belichick sometimes seems to go against the currents of change in the NFL -- for instance, as more and more teams have switched to 3-4 defenses, which Belichick helped popularize, the Patriots last year reverted to playing more of a 4-3 (at least nominally). It would be fun to see the Pats emphasize the running game at a time when the NFL is a pass-driven league, maybe to take advantage of defensive schemes that are increasingly geared towards stopping the quarterback.

The State of Things in Madison Square Garden

2012-05-03T18:55:00.004-07:00

Let's take a look over at our friends in New York.

The Good News:

The Knicks are about to get swept out of the playoffs in the first round and set an NBA record for most consecutive playoff losses by a franchise. This isn't really that good news, first of all because it's hard to hate on the Knicks, even for a New York team, them being so pathetic and trying so hard; and second of all, because the most loathsome team in the NBA is the one sweeping them.

Looking back on the Knicks' season, though, it's really a cautionary tale about the need for a point guard. The Knicks have the best defensive center in the league in Chandler, a top-10 scorer in Melo, a dynamic scorer at the 2 in JR Smith, and a few strong defensive assets in Shumpert, Jeffries, etc. These guys have flashed brilliance and the Knicks have looked dangerous. But the Knicks can do nothing -- nothing! -- with Baron Davis and Mike Bibby playing the point. You need that floor general. When Chandler makes a great defensive play, he needs someone to give the ball too right away. Melo, JR, Novak need someone to set them up. Someone needs to quarterback the offense. You just can't do without that guy. Makes you feel all the more grateful for Rondo.

The Bad News:

The Rangers are going to win the Stanley Cup.

It's just going to happen. You can tell watching the playoffs when that one team has that "championship feel" about them -- they play so well together, they're on a mission, they gut out the tough games and they will themselves to win when they need to. The Rangers have that "championship feel" this year. They have all regular season, and they do now. They won't be beaten.

Take a look at the road ahead for them. They Capitals are flat-out not a good enough hockey team to beat them. Then they play one of two inferior division rivals, both of whom they've beaten multiple times during the regular season (Flyers and Devils). And then they find themselves in the Finals, up against a team with a small fan-base like Nashville, St. Louis, Phoenix, or LA (it's hockey). And in that situation you can bet that the 2012 Rangers -- with their dedicated fan base and their "championship feel" -- won't be denied.

A Guest-Written Evaluation of the 2012 Draft

2012-05-03T06:25:00.000-07:00

The way you feel about the Patriots’ 2012 draft probably depends on how much you trust Belichick to evaluate fringe players and their fit in his system. To be clear, I would argue that the draft is at least a very good one. With New England sandwiching a few iffy moves in the middle around several fantastic picks at either end of the draft, the team made out well. But were those Day Two picks enough to put this class over the top?

It’s fair to wonder why the coaching staff’s evaluations sometimes differ so drastically from those of other teams and draft analysts. For instance, was the pick of Tavon Wilson in the middle of the second round (no. 48 overall) a big mistake, a slight reach, or just another case of a mock-draft public thinking it knows better than the Pats’ head coach? But before I get to the Wilson pick, which I would consider the turning point of this draft, let’s start with a couple big first-round selections.

As has become usual over the past few years, the Pats came into this draft loaded with early round picks. With two first-rounders and two second-rounders, I was expecting Belichick to acquire some impact talent, but I was also fairly sure that he would trade away some of those picks to keep his currency high for future years. I dreaded that we would come away from the draft, once again, with no upgrade to the pass rush despite a glaring need. Would 2012 be another year I would have to watch opposing offenses put up monster passing numbers, as the Brady-Belichick window grew that much smaller? Like I said in an email to a couple of friends the morning of draft day, “If the Patriots don't draft pass rush help with one of their first round picks this year, I will [poop building blocks].”

As we got into the middle of Round One, the player I had fallen in love with was still on the board. Chandler Jones is a raw edge rusher with incredible measurables, great athleticism, and high upside. I expected him to go in the middle of the first round, and as pick 19 approached, I figured the price for trading up from where the Pats sat at 27 was becoming reasonable enough for “Draft Miser” Belichick to consider it. Of course, no one really expected it to happen, but a guy can dream. Imagine my excitement, then, when Adam Schefter announced that the Patriots had traded up to 21 and were planning on taking Jones. I could hardly believe it. I was doubly shocked when, just a few minutes later, the Pats jumped up the board again to take LB Dont’a Hightower from Alabama. Making one first round trade-up was out of character, but two was unheard of. Two front seven defenders in Round One? Yes, please.

A few points on the picks. Let’s start with the premise that the Patriots don’t have a lot of holes--I’ll refer you to Belichickian’s roster analysis from a few weeks ago. The offense is solid from top to bottom. The run defense is respectable, with big bodies up front and strong, tackling linebackers in the middle. I’m not breaking new ground when I say the problem is the pass defense. It’s worth it to spend--even to overspend--if it means genuinely addressing your one, glaring weakness. Moreover, after being aggressive in free agency, the Patriots had already filled 74 of a potential 90 roster spots before the draft, far more than most organizations. Rather than drafting twelve middling guys and hoping to hit on a few, it made sense to target just small number of high-impact players.

The other big-picture theme has to do with defensive philosophy. Maybe this year was simply a case of the right people being available at the right point in the first round, but I’d also like to think that Belichick has come to agree with Jerry Reese (and me) when it comes to building a pass defense: it’s all about pressure. As the Giants have repeatedly demonstrated, a strong pass rush can make an average secondary look good, but even a great secondary will eventually get exposed if the quarterback has all day to throw. Do I have some bitterness and a slight inferiority complex these days when it comes to the Giants? Maybe. But instead of pouring pick after pick into defensive back busts, as the Patriots have done recently, Belichick is finally giving his secondary some help up front. I can’t pretend to understand what it takes to play the outside/rush linebacker spot in the Pats’ 3-4, but it has been beyond frustrating to watch us pass up guys like Clay Matthews and Brooks Reed every year.

Apparently, Jones and Hightower are the right “fit.” And yes, I expect Hightower to rush the passer as a Patriot despite playing mostly ILB at ‘Bama. I see him rotating part-time with Mayo and Spikes on early downs and playing outside the rest of the time. Considering that both the Ravens and Steelers were said to love Hightower, this is someone I want on my team. The AFC North powerhouses know how to pick their ‘backers. I get itchy fingers when I hear that someone might be groomed to be the “heir to Ray Lewis,” and the LaMarr Woodley comparisons don’t hurt either. It’s wishful thinking to assume Hightower will be quite that good, but even so, adding quality and depth to your linebacking corps is always a good idea.

But I think Jones is the real gem of this class. He reminds me a little of Jason Pierre-Paul coming out of college, with his combination of intriguing raw tools and huge upside. Going into the draft, JPP was considered a physical freak with classic boom/bust potential. If he ever put it together, he could be special, but the lack of refinement scared some (i.e. most) people away. The Giants took a chance. It worked. Obviously, that’s a best-case scenario for Jones. He might not be quite as physically gifted as JPP, and so might lack that top-of-the-league ceiling, but he also has a higher floor at this point in his career. A couple years from now, once Jones matures fully into his frame and has a few semesters of Belichick Academy under his belt, he could be one of the premier edge rushers in the league. Fingers crossed.

And then things got sketchy. With the sixteenth pick in the second round, the New England Patriots select... Tavon Wilson? Troy Brown’s announcement should have been spoken with rising intonation, because it sure raised some questions. Despite our abysmal history drafting defensive backs in the early rounds, we all knew secondary help was coming at some point, but Tavon Wilson? As reporters and commentators scrambled to find their non-existent notes on the Illinois safely, the consensus gradually emerged that Wilson had flown under the draft radar because... most people don’t think he’s that good. A few came to his defense: ESPN Boston’s chief Patriots propagandist Mike Reiss noted that Wilson had made seven pre-draft visits with teams. Former Illini coach Ron Zook said he knew Wilson had The Right Stuff all along. Go figure.

Now, to be fair, I’m not going to pan this pick just because McShay and Kiper say Tavon Wilson should have gone later. I’ll take Belichick’s judgement over the mob’s any day. The number of fantastic players that go unrecognized by the Combine could fill several All-Pro teams.

But: Given Belichick’s recent poor record of drafting and developing DBs, it’s fair to at least question his decisions in that area. Should Wilson emerge into a star, or even a solid regular, I’ll happily admit the Hoodie knew best. Fixing the safety position would turn this draft from "good" to "great."

Even if that’s the case, though, you wonder whether the mid-round picks could have been spent more judiciously. Since most teams had Wilson as a late-round selection, could the Patriots have taken someone else at no. 48 and then grabbed him with a later pick, maximizing value? According to most analysts, the answer is yes. There were still a lot of good players sitting there in the middle of Round Two. On the other hand, no one has the pulse of the draft like Belichick does. I’m sure the thought of waiting on Wilson occurred to him, and perhaps he felt that another team would swoop in if the Patriots tried to get cute. If that’s the case, and if the coaching staff truly felt that Wilson was their guy, then I applaud them. Safety was definitely a need, and Wilson was probably near the very top of the Patriots’ board. We mere bloggers have limited access to information, so for now we have to trust Belichick on this one.

And so the draft continued, and the Pats traded down. Several times. I’m not going to pretend I know enough about the later picks to comment on most of them. DE Jake Bequette is an interesting guy, with good size and a history of getting after the quarterback in the SEC. The rankings say Bequette was a bit of a reach, but we’re in fairly subjective territory at this point. Slot receiver Jeremy Ebert and DB Nate Ebner look like a couple more darts Belichick is hoping will stick.

Nebraska cornerback Alfonzo Dennard, on the other hand, is someone to watch. Less than a year ago, he was being talked about as a first- or second-round guy. A few experts even compared him favorably to Husker teammate Prince Amukamara, the Giants’ 2011 first round selection (which, in retrospect, is probably absurd). As the college season went on, it became clear that Dennard belonged more in the second or third round, but an April 21 arrest murdered his draft status and sent him tumbling to round seven, where the Patriots gladly pounced. If all goes well, Dennard could turn into an excellent slot defender, or maybe the extra DB in nickel and dime packages. He’s no Darrelle Revis, but that’s good return on pick number 224. This is a low-risk move by the Patriots. They wrapped up their draft like they began it--on a high note.

Jones and Hightower are potential blue-chippers, and Dennard could be a steal. If Wilson and Bequette turn out to be quality players, this draft will have been pure gold. But if not, the Pats will have squandered a couple of high picks and the pundit establishment will be able to say, “I told you so.” For me, Wilson’s success or failure will provide an interesting referendum on Belichick’s ability to scout and develop his defensive secondary.

Celtics-Hawks Round One

2012-05-02T19:17:00.002-07:00

"Maybe the Hawks are just the Hawks." -Mac Jones

It's funny that the Hawks and the Falcons are both from Atlanta, because I couldn't come up with an NBA and NFL team that share more in common. Both teams are perennially in the playoffs. Both are perennial non-contenders for a championship. Both are perennial second-fiddle-players to the better team in their respective divisions (Heat, Saints). Both are built around a good-not-great, almost-franchise-player (Matt Ryan, Joe Johnson) surrounded by good-not-great role players.

And both are named after predatory birds.

I love this matchup for the Celtics. No threatening big man to challenge KG in the paint. (Zaza Pachulia? Somebody Named Collins?) No shutdown defender to limit Pierce. A B-list point guard in Teague. And one true star in Johnson to be shut down by Avery Bradley.

Game 1: Tough loss, but mostly boiled down to an atrocious first quarter when the Hawks came out blazing hot. I think the Hawks looked at the regular season and saw tough losses to the C's, including one at home, and an almost-loss against the C's without Rondo, KG, Ray, Stiemsma, Pietrus and Pierce. They said in the locker room, "We need to give this series our absolute best to win it." And they just dominated that first quarter.

Game 2: With Rondo out, Pierce just took over. The Celtics proved that they're the better team, and maybe, hopefully, broke the spirit of the Hawks to some degree by winning without their best player.

I like this matchup most of all because I think the Hawks and the Celtics both know the Celtics to be the better team in the series. The final matchup of the regular season was telling, when Bradley, Bass, and the Celtics backups almost beat the Hawks' front lines. Game 2 was a retelling of that same story: "We're better than you guys. We can play you tight even without our best player."

I think the Celtics win big in Game 3 with Rondo back in the lineup, then win a tight one in Game 4. Game 5 in ATL could go either way but the Celtics take this series easily. C's in 6 is the conservative pick, but I like what I see and I'll go...

...C's in 5.

Meanwhile, elsewhere around the league:

Bulls-Sixers. Tied 1-1.
Prediction: Bulls demoralized without Rose. Philly strong at home and has already won in Chicago. Series goes 7 games and Bulls muscle it out because they try harder than any other team in the league and Thibodeau will adjust their approach.

Heat-Knicks. Heat up 2-0.
Prediction: Sweep.

Pacers-Magic. Tied 1-1.
Prediction: Hibbert doing work on Big Baby, Ryan Anderson, or whoever else they trot out to fill the Howard void. Orlando gets another game or two with the 3-point attack but it's not enough. Pacers move on in 6.

Spurs-Jazz. Spurs up 2-0.
Prediction: Sweep. Pop knows his boys need those extra days off and the Jazz are just outmatched.

Thunder-Mavericks. Thunder up 2-0.
Prediction: Both games have been extremely close, and the series is going back to Dallas, and we all know about Dirk and Jet in the playoffs. But Delonte West as your third best scorer? Brendan Hayward as your center? Jason Kidd as the starting PG? I don't think so. Dallas knows they're not going all the way this year and that 2-0 hole must feel demoralizing. Thunder in 5.

Lakers-Nuggets. Lakers up 2-0.
Prediction: Lakers sneak out a game in Denver and close it out at home in Game 5. Nuggets really no match for Kobe and Bynum.

Grizzlies-Clippers: Clippers up 1-0.
Prediction: Chris Paul godliness notwithstanding, I think this Clippers team is just so weak. CP3 wins 1-2 more games but the Grizzlies are definitely the better team and that truth will out. Grizzlies in 6.

This is what happens...

2012-04-26T21:07:00.004-07:00

...when you come out of the gate slow in a playoff series.

Hockey involves a lot of luck. I say that not to denigrate hockey -- my favorite sport to watch on television -- but only to point out that in a game where scrums are so frequent, action is so frenzied, and yet so few goals are scored, the random bounce of the puck has a lot to do with whether you win or go home. That's why hockey playoffs are played out in 7-game series. One game can't tell you who the better team is. In a 7-game series, you have to really and truly -- comprehensively, one might say -- beat the other team to send them home.

In the closest playoff series of all time -- 3 overtime games, and all 7 decided by a single goal -- it's safe to say that the Washington Capitals and Boston Bruins were about as close to evenly matched as it gets. Some will say that Washington wanted it more, out-hustling the B's when it counted. Some will say that the Bruins let it get away from them when they really should have won. Really the only thing to say is that in 4 out of 7 games, the Washington Capitals put more pucks in the net than the Boston Bruins. And the Bruins are home early because of it.

In hockey, the "random bounce of the puck" can be tempered by three factors primarily: your ability to get shots on goal, your ability to deny the opponent shots on goal, and your goaltender's relative ability of your goaltender to make the marginal saves on random bounces that would otherwise have found the net.

Here are the shots on goal for the series:

1: BOS 30, WAS 17

2: BOS 44, WAS 39

3: WAS 32, BOS 29

4: BOS 45, WAS 21

5: BOS 37, WAS 32

6: WAS 39, BOS 31

7: BOS 32, WAS 27

Focusing solely on SOG, then, two games were won decisively by the Bruins and 5 others were more-or-less a wash (the two teams within 8 SOG of each other). This leads me to make two main conclusions about the series.

(1) It really was pretty close. With the exceptions of Game 4, which the Bruins dominated but lost, and Game 1, which they dominated and won, no team dramatically outplayed the other at any point.

(2) Because of that fact -- the closeness of the games -- it really did come to a lot of of luck. True, Braden Holtby did outplay Tim Thomas, and Timmay did give up a couple soft goals, but really there wasn't a tremendous difference between the goaltenders. At the end of the day, the puck bounced Washington's way a few more times than it bounced Boston's way. Last year, it bounced our way more than a few times this time of year.

If the Bruins wanted to win this series, they needed to come out of the gate and dominate from Game 1. They needed to overwhelm the Capitals with physicality, control the puck more, and produce the chances that would have led to goals. The B's failed to do that.

In net, Tim Thomas played poorly by Tim Thomas standards, but he's not to blame for the series, not nearly. He even submitted a typical Tim Thomas Game 7 gem -- he deserves blame for neither of the 2 goals -- but by that point it was too late. The puck bounced Washington's way on both of those goals, and the Capitals move on.

Disappointing though it was, the Bruins have nothing to be ashamed of. They played through a number of key injuries (Horton, McQuaid, Bergeron) and had a good chance to win it in the end. This team is as fun to watch as any in the NHL, and as fun to root for as any team in New England. They didn't lift the Cup this year, but I can't wait to watch them try again in 2013.

Celtics Rest the Big Guns

2012-04-24T19:19:00.000-07:00

So I'm watching Celtics-Heat right now. It's the penultimate game of the season and Doc has elected to trot out the following lineup: Keyon Dooling, Avery Bradley, Sasha Pavlovic, Brandon Bass, and Chris Hollins, with occasional doses of Paul Pierce as needed. No sign of Rondo (back), Garnett, Ray-Ray (ankle), Pietrus, or Stiemsma (foot). It's the end of the third quarter and the B Team has played it to a 50-50 tie.

This is a great call by Doc. We've got the Hawks in Round 1, whom we know we can beat having beaten them twice this season and almost a third team with the JV lineup on Friday. The Hawks are a mediocre playoff team if there ever was one, while the Celtics are dangerous, experienced, and finding their stride at the right time of year. Doc knows this and he also knows that the great weakness for the C's in these playoffs will be their age. Nothing could benefit the Celtics more than turning the last two weeks of the season into two weeks of rest for the veteran core.

Meanwhile, the Hawks have taken care of the Clippers (there's a team headed home after Round One, for sure), so the Celtics will need to win this game, beat the Bucks, and watch the Mavericks beat the Hawks in order to get home-court. But Doc has made it clear that his team can handle the Hawks at home or on the road. It feels good going into the playoffs with that kind of confidence, along with well-rested starters and well-practiced reserves.

UPDATE: Sasha Pavlovic is torching the Heat. JuJuan Johnson just dunked on somebody. The Celtics are gonna take this one by about 15 points. So, who knows? Home court still in play. Go Celtics.

Bruins-Capitals Game 7

2012-04-22T20:23:00.000-07:00

Gosh, the Bruins drew a tough matchup with these Capitals. The kid Holtby is playing like a brick wall in goal. Semin seems to score every game. Backstrom and Ovechkin are deadly and require one defenseman's attention at all times.

And it doesn't help that Tim Thomas is playing like a sack of crap. It's like the cab driver says in that commercial: "You're naught Tim Taugh-mas." He has given up ugly goals every game, today's being the late-game five-hole game from Ovechkin.

Nevertheless, you gotta feel good about this Game 7 from a Bruins perspective. We're coming home to Boston, we've got the Game 7 experience, and the team's been playing better and better -- Krejci and Seguin finally making it onto the scoresheet. If Thomas can pull it together and post a solid Tim Thomas game, we should be able to get it done.

Patriots Roster Breakdown & Draft Needs

2012-04-17T10:19:00.001-07:00

Here is Patriots' current depth chart as I see it.

OFFENSE

QB:
Tom Brady
Brian Hoyer
Ryan Mallett

RB:
Stevan Ridley
Shane Vereen
Danny Woodhead

FB:
Spencer Larsen
Tony Fiammetta
Eric Kettani

WR:
Brandon Lloyd
Wes Welker
Donte Stallworth
Deion Branch
Anthony Gonzalez
Chad Ochocinco
Julian Edelman
Matthew Slater
Tiquan Underwood
Britt Davis

TE:
Rob Gronkowski
Aaron Hernandez
Daniel Fells

OT:
Matt Light
Nate Solder
Sebastian Vollmer
Marcus Cannon
Matt Kopa
Kyle Hix

OG:
Logan Mankins
Brian Waters
Robert Gallery
Donald Thomas

C:
Dan Connolly
Dan Koppen
Nick McDonald
Ryan Wendell

DEFENSE

DT:
Vince Wilfork
Kyle Love
Marcus Harrison
Myron Pryor
Ron Brace

DE:
Jonathan Fanene
Brandon Deaderick
Alex Silvestro

OLB:
Rob Ninkovich
Trevor Scott
Jermaine Cunningham
Markell Carter
Aaron Lavarias
Jeff Tarpinian
Tracy White

ILB:
Jerod Mayo
Brandon Spikes
Bobby Carpenter
Niko Koutouvides
Dane Fletcher
Mike Rivera

CB:
Ras-I Dowling
Devin McCourty
Kyle Arrington
Will Allen
Sterling Moore
Marquice Cole

SS:
Patrick Chung

FS:
Steve Gregory
Sergio Brown
Josh Barrett
Malcolm Williams
Ross Ventrone

Here's what I think we should do for the draft. First of all, I'd be very disappointed if Belichick used any picks on offensive players in the first two rounds. We have the best quarterback of all time and the quarterback of the future in Mallett; we have running back depth for the next 5+ years with Ridley, Vereen, and Woodhead, in addition to the new fullback options; we have two of the top five TEs in the league in addition to a top-20 as backup; we have three WRs more than we can carry on the roster; and we have enough depth at offensive line to field two starting units (Light-Mankins-Koppen-Waters-Vollmer and Solder-Thomas-Connolly-Gallery-Cannon). I wouldn't mind a late-round pick on a young WR to build depth for 3-4 years down the line, but other than that we really shouldn't be drafting offense in rounds 1 and 2.

Defensively, here's what we need:
(1) Safety. Chung is solid at SS and hopefully Gregory will be solid at FS, but after that we have a whole lotta nothing, leaving us vulnerable to the same sort of catastrophe that we experienced last year when Chung missed games. Brown-Barrett and below simply cannot see significant playing time this year. Furthermore, Gregory has a lot of upside as a potential slot corner in nickel packages, giving us further reason to look for another safety. I would grab Mark Barron immediately if he falls to No. 27. Even though a FS would be ideal, Barron plays well in coverage. He would be a great #2 on the depth chart behind Chung, providing competition and insurance in case of another Chung injury. Or, he could transition to FS and potentially start over Gregory. Either way it would be a huge boon for the Pats if he were to drop to 27. That said, such a drop is unlikely, and so the Patriots need to take a good look at a guy like Harrison Smith as well.
(2) Defensive Line. Wilfork needs to play fewer snaps this year for his own sake. Love has looked solid behind him, and maybe Myron Pryor can step up. I think the best thing would be to add a big boy who can play 3-4 DE, stop the run and get after the passer occasionally. Fletcher Cox or Michael Brockers would be ideal, but more realistically Devon Still or Kendall Reyes would work too. Any of these guys could play end with Wilfork/Love in the middle or tackle with Wilfork on the sideline.
(3) Pass Rush. The Pats need to get a rush going from the OLB position. Courtney Upshaw would be a dream prospect to play across from Rob Ninkovich, making for a third-down line of Ninkovich-Mayo-Spikes-Upshaw. Wow. Other options to fill this role would be Melvin Ingram, Andre Branch, or Nick Perry.
(4) Cornerback. Less of a need than safety. Dowling has the potential to play a shutdown corner and I think McCourty should stay at corner after the promise of his rookie year. But further insurance and competition is always a good thing. Janoris Jenkins in particular could be a steal if he drops far enough. Trumaine Johnson out of Montana would be another good late-round pick.

All in all, the Patriots need to come out of this draft with some significant help in the front seven as well as some significant help in the secondary. They need help in both areas to contend for the Super Bowl again in 2013.

Two More Wins

2012-04-16T21:52:00.003-07:00

So the B's take Game 3 and it looks like the Caps might be Backstrom-less for Game 4. Solid. Bruins need to take advantage on Thursday night and then close the book back home in Boston. That would give us the winner of Devils-Panthers, either one of which I think will be a weaker team than the Capitals.

Meanwhile, it's looking more and more like Rangers-Flyers on the other side of the bracket. Regardless of how well Philly's been playing, I think that'll be a cupcake matchup for the Rangers, who swept the Flyers in the regular season. The Flyers are a very similar team to the Rangers in style; they're just a little bit worse. And that always makes for the most lopsided matchups.

I liked what I saw out of the Bruins tonight. I'm not worried about the three goals because I think at least two of them were attributable to unusual, unlikely-to-recur mental lapses on the part of Zdeno Chara.

(1) It was Chara's roughing penalty in the first that led to the first Capitals goal. He is a crucial part of the Bruins' penalty kill and the B's are at a huge disadvantage when he steps into the box. He's gotta avoid doing that.

(2) It was Chara whose lapse led to the wide-open breakaway Laich goal in the third. Chalk it up to Chara's having his eyes on Ovechkin, and hopefully it doesn't happen again.

(The third goal was classic Ovechkin, and one can take solace in the fact that this is the first we've heard from him all series.)

Once again, the defense was phenomenal, particularly Seidenberg and Boychuk. Once again, the third line of Rolston-Kelly-Pouliot provided dynamic production, with Rolston netting one in the second.

Cause for Concern: Anemic production continues from the top 5 offensive weapons of Lucic, Krejci, Seguin, Marchand, Bergeron. Seguin in particular has looked hapless at every turn. Of the first two lines only the add-on Rich Peverley has provided any sort of spark.

Nevertheless, I'm confident the B's will win the series, and the reason for that is depth. The big guns will continue to get their minutes, but so will the third (Rolston-Kelly-Pouliot) and fourth (Paille-Campbell-Thornton) lines. And that's where Washington is doomed. By the end of the second period, Dale Hunter was barely even playing his third line, while the Bruins rotated four lines right up until the final horn. That leads to fresher legs, more and harder hits, and ultimately more goals.

Bruins in 5.

Coming Down the Stretch

2012-04-16T10:30:00.003-07:00

Here is how things look for the Celtics coming down the stretch.

@ Knicks
vs Orlando
@ Atlanta
vs Miami
vs Milwaukee

Really very little is at stake at this point. With a 4-game lead on Philadelphia in the division, the Celtics should be able to clinch the 4-seed with a 2-3 finish. I see no particular reason to pursue the 3-seed, especially if Atlanta ends up with the 5.

New York will be a tough game, the Knicks coming off a tough home defeat at the hands of the Heat. They'll be sharp, and hungry for a win, while the Celtics have looked lethargic over the weekend against the bottom-feeders of the East. Needless to say, the Heat will be tough as well, no doubt out for blood after being embarrassed twice in the past month.

I'd say the must-wins are against Orlando and Atlanta -- two potential first-round opponents that the Celtics need to beat out for home-court advantage. Luckily, the Celts are flat-out better than both of these teams, especially with the Magic still reeling from Howard issues. I see it breaking down this way:

@ Knicks L
vs Orlando W
@ Atlanta W
vs Miami L
vs Milwaukee W

The Celtics need those two middle games against the Magic and Hawks, but aside from that I'd favor a lot of rest, especially for the Big Three, as soon as the division is locked up.

Bruins Adjustments

2012-04-15T09:50:00.003-07:00

So far, so good as far as defensive play is concerned. Dennis Seidenberg has been doing a (literal) bang-up job on Ovechkin and the Caps have only produced 56 shots in almost 160 minutes of play.

Offense is a different story, having scored only 2 goals in almost 8 periods of action. Here is how the lines break down:

1. Marchand-Bergeron-Seguin: 20 SOG in 21 mins.

2. Lucic-Krejci-Peverley: 13 SOG in 24 mins.

3. Rolston-Kelly-Pouliot: 12 SOG in 17 mins.

4. Paille-Campbell-Thornton: 12 SOG in 12 mins.

Line 3 has been indisputably the best, scoring both of the goals against Holtby and creating more legitimate chances. (Just goes to show what dynamic additions Rolston and Pouliot have made in the absence of Recchi and Ryder.) Line 1 has been fine, although it's disappointing that they haven't found the net in 8 periods, and even Line 4 has looked solid in limiting playing time.

The problem is Line 2. Looch, Krejci and Peverley have given the Bruins nothing. This is born out in the numbers (fewest SOG per playing time, about 0.5 per minute) and also plain to see when they take the ice live. Stagnant is about the only way to describe it.

My suggestion: Up the minutes for Rolston-Kelly-Pouliot. These guys have been playing great and bringing the biggest spark to the offense. Maybe Lucic-Krejci-Peverley play more efficiently with a little more time on the bench, maybe they continue underperforming. Either way, this team needs to find some way of generating an offensive spark and I love the way that third line is playing.

Welcome

2012-04-14T21:48:00.004-07:00

So, welcome. This is going to be my Boston sports blog, since I have a lot to say and nowhere to say it. I've always been a big sports fan, but sports have become a bigger part of my life in the ten months since graduating college as I've had a suspicious amount of free time on my hands.

I live in New York but am a devoted fan of the Patriots, Bruins, Red Sox, and Celtics. The Red Sox were my first love, suffering through many traumatic defeats with them in the early 2000s, culminating in the Aaron Boone Tragedy of 2003, before standing by with my heart in my throat as they charged to a World Series in 2004 and another in 2007. I became a Patriots fan around the time of that second World Series, abandoning my random fetish for the Minnesota Vikings in exchange for my true football inheritance, a feat made easier by the signing of Randy Moss in the 2006 offseason. Once again, my first experience with my now-favorite sports franchise was tragedy. I attended the 2007 AFC Championship game, in which the then-15-0 Patriots squeaked out a feeble victory over the San Diego Chargers. Despite witnessing the win, I felt a sinking sensation throughout that game, a subconscious foreknowledge that the undefeated season was not to be. The 2007 Super Bowl and the 2012 Super Bowl of this past February share second-place honors for the heartbreaks of my sports-fan past. The 2007 loss, in particular, left me sullen in my freshman year dorm room as Giants-fan classmates littered the library with celebratory posters and commenced a douche-bag parade outside my window.

Becoming a Celtics and Bruins fan was much easier. I had always had much sympathy for the two teams but not as much interest in the two leagues. The NBA generally began to pick up just as the Celtics amassed their juggernaut. Having watched Paul Pierce and Antoine Walker tank their way through an NBA with a chronic lack of defensive basketball and competitive spirit, I now could watch with a rooting interest as Pierce-Garnett-Allen rose to power in a league featuring more compelling teams, more competitive rivalries, increasingly passionate fan bases. The NBA became an all-around better watch, and the Celtics were at the top of it. This was all the more fun because of a Lakers fan friend from college who I mocked relentlessly as the Celtics rolled Kobe in the 2008 Finals.

The Bruins, admittedly, entered my sports consciousness mostly due to their successes. In my youth they had always been a hapless team, much like the Celtics -- so much so that Ray Bourque had to leave for Colorado to hoist the Cup once before retiring. Like the Celtics, I was fond of the Bruins without being unduly worried about their suckiness. Moreover, people in New York don't care all that much about hockey, and my interest in the league mostly involved the Pittsburgh Penguins featuring Jagr-Lemieux and some fun Western Conference teams like the Sharks and Mighty Ducks. When the Bruins got good around 2009, I started following them with a greater interest. In typical Boston fashion, they delivered heartbreak before triumph with a sweep by the Philadelphia Flyers, a team I had always hated. But the unforgettable ride to the Cup in 2011 was well worth the wait, and the Bruins are now quite possibly the most enjoyable Boston team to watch. They are dynamic. They score goals. They scrap. They get in fights. They are quickly rising in my personal Boston sports pantheon and more than any of my other teams, they are the one I could most see myself rooting for even if they belonged to another city.

That's the bare-bones of the story. I love all four of my teams. I've felt the pain of their losses -- the Sox in 03 and 11, the Patriots in 07 and 12, and less painfully, the Celtics in the Walker-Pierce years and the Bruins with Bourque.

But I will readily admit that I've had a much less painful go of it than my father, uncle, and grandfather, who suffered through years of agony with a pathetic Patriots team (Grogan and Plunkett) and a cursed Red Sox team (Buckner), although also experienced some epic triumphs with the Bruins (Orr) and Celtics (Bird).

Life's not bad for a Boston sports fan in 2012. As I write, the Celtics have the best point guard in the Eastern Conference and a legitimate shot at the title before starting the offseason rebuilding process. The Bruins are a top-5 team in the NHL, play great defense and score tons of goals, and are easily the funnest team to root for in hockey. The Patriots are coming off a Super Bowl run and poised to make another in the anemic AFC. And the Red Sox -- well, they're the Red Sox, currently struggling but one of the strongest franchises in baseball and soon to be bolstered by an up-and-coming future-GM by the name of Ben Hecht.

Here are the most important figures since 2000.

Patriots: Have made 5 Super Bowls, won 3.

Red Sox: Have made 2 World Series and won both.

Celtics: Have made 2 NBA Finals and won 1.

Bruins: Have made 1 Cup Finals and won it.

So midway through 2012, it's been 11 1/2 years since 2000 and the Boston teams have competed in 10 world championships, winning 7. You do the math. And that's not even counting the three remaining title runs of 2012: the Bruins (highly competitive), the Celtics (credible contender) and the Sox (outside shot). It's a good place to be.

I figured I'd start this blog so that, rather than talking to myself about sports I can get down some thoughts. Hopefully I'll come up with some worthwhile.