The Box Office Theory

'THE HOBBIT' Teaser Trailer Has Been Sighted...

2011-12-12T16:34:00.003-06:00

Harry Knowles' Butt-Numb-A-Thon 13 festival attendees were treated to a huge surprise over the last twenty-four hours: Elijah Wood was on hand to present the teaser trailer for The Hobbit! Due to launch in theaters in front of The Adventures of Tintin on December 21st, check out the first reactions:

Nordling (from AICN):

"Yes, we saw THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY trailer thanks to Gandalf The Grey magically transporting Quint from the beautiful landscapes of Middle-Earth to the Alamo Drafthouse in Austin, Texas. No, I can’t talk about any specifics except to say that something I always treasured from the original book is in the trailer in a big way and I was very happy to hear it. The trailer will play in front of THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN and it’s simply sublime. It’s more character-based than epic, but it’s like slipping into a warm embrace from a very old friend that you haven’t seen in many years. Truly wonderful."

'THE DARK KNIGHT RISES' Gets a New Teaser Poster

2011-12-10T15:10:00.001-06:00

Leading up to the release of the new theatrical trailer next week, as well as the prologue that will precede Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol in select IMAX theaters, Warner Bros. has unveiled the second and newest poster for The Dark Knight Rises.

Featuring Bane as he walks away from a shattered Batman mask, one can make any number of interpretations about that (especially if you know your Batman comic history).

Regardless, the poster is a welcome change from some of the over-exposed Photoshopping we're used to seeing from Hollywood movies these days.

It also sets a definitive tone for the film, as director Christopher Nolan is clearly making no bones about the fact that, one way or the other, this is the end of his story.

Click the image for a larger version of the new poster!

Source: Warner Bros.

Box Office Preview: 'NEW YEAR'S EVE' & 'THE SITTER' Open as Holiday Box Office Will Continue to Struggle

2011-12-09T10:20:00.001-06:00

Taking a bit of a break from my normal prediction format this weekend, I'll be focusing on only the openers of the upcoming frame.

The box office has been in a significant struggle of late. Despite The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part I enjoying some consistent success and becoming the first film of the franchise to rank #1 for three weekends, the latter in fact in itself is quite telling of just how uninterested audiences seem to be with the selection of films out right now.

That doesn't look to change this weekend, either. New Year's Eve and The Sitter were already significant disadvantages coming into the week, but their early reviews aren't any better with the former sitting at 6% and the latter at 18% on RottenTomatoes.com.

Alas, the bright side here is that this should be last lull of a weekend for the holiday season. Next week, the eagerly anticipated Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows will debut and is expected by some (myself included) to challenge for one of the best December openings of all-time. After that, a slew of new releases will try to pump some demand into the Christmas movie market.

But that's next week...

For those that may have missed my December 2011 Preview last week, my thoughts on New Year's Eve and The Sitter still stand:

The semi-sequel to 2010's fellow all-star-driven Valentine's Day, New Year's Eve is an (intended) timely holiday rom-com from director Gerry Marshall that aims to repeat the successful formula of that film. Last time around, however, Valentine's had the benefit of actually launching on its titular holiday weekend (an extended one, no less), ultimately helping to reinforce the gimmick and send it to a massive $56 million debut on its way toward $110 million domestically.

The box office market then, however, was still reeling from the super success of Avatar and other winter holdovers. Conversely, after another down weekend at the box office despite Thanksgiving's boost, the box office market now is much more fragile and typically unkind to films (sequels, in this case) that make little effort to be anything other than a marketing ploy.

Will audiences bite the second time around? To some extent, probably. There's aren't many competitors in the genre this year so New Year's Eve could have a decent run throughout the holidays (and probably see a very nice bump come New Year's for obvious reasons), but I'm skeptical about this one reaching the same heights of success as its quasi-predecessor. The all-star cast and hard marketing push will certainly do it some favors as well.

A more reasonable comparison may be 2006's The Holiday, a rom-com from director Nancy Meyers that pulled $63 million during its run ($75+ million adjusted for inflation) after a modest opening frame on the same weekend that New Year's will also open. I'd expect a somewhat larger opening than the $13 million Holiday saw --something more in line with Its Complicated's $22.1 million Christmas opening in 2009 -- followed by holiday-boosted but otherwise less-than-impressive legs afterward.

Meanwhile, Jonah Hill stars in The Sitter -- the latest comedy from Pineapple Express director David Gordon Green. Green's last effort, Your Highness tanked with critics and audiences earlier this year when it pulled in only $21.6 million domestically -- less than half of its estimated $50 million budget.

While Highness was a bit more limiting thanks to its nature as a stoner comedy, The Sitter might have a little extra appeal if only because its being sold as an R-rated comedy in the vein of Superbad. My thinking, however, is that it still won't work. The marketing campaign has failed to convey what exactly sets this movie apart from the umpteen other "hard R" comedies out there these days and, while Hill is certainly well-known, he's still not a guaranteed major box office draw.

Hill's 2010 summer comedy Get Him to the Greek debuted to $17.6 million on its way to almost $61 million domestically. That was with strong reviews, a more audience-friendly release date, a clearer marketing campaign, and multiple familiar faces in its cast. The same cannot be said for The Sitter, however.

With the lack of many successful films in this genre during the holiday season, my feeling is this will perform close to the numbers of Your Highness and potentially even 2007's Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story. The latter bombed with a mere $18 million lifetime haul on a $35 million budget, and quickly proved that not only could Judd Apatow's name not turn everything into automatic gold, but that the December release date was a huge tactical error on the studio's part (especially considering the film was actually well-received by Apatow fans and the like). I'd expect something similar to those films to happen here as its original summer release date made oodles more sense.

Final Opening Predictions:
New Year's Eve - $19.4 million
The Sitter - $8.8 million

First Trailer for Jason Segel & Nicholas Stoller's 'THE FIVE-YEAR ENGAGEMENT'

2011-12-07T15:36:00.001-06:00

The first poster and trailer for The Five-Year Engagement have come online today via Yahoo!

Starring Jason Segel and Emily Blunt, the comedy is the latest team-up between the former and director Nicholas Stoller (Forgetting Sarah Marshall, Get Him to the Greek) due for release April 27, just in time the summer movie season (similar to when Marshall and I Love You, Man enjoyed their successful box office runs).

My take on the trailer: the film has been one of great interest to me, and this first look tells me it probably won't disappoint. Segel and Stoller have collaborated with near perfect success over the last few years and Five-Year Engagement promises to once again provide a genuine comedic look into a real life situation that audiences can relate with -- something missing in many of today's feeble, characterless attempts by Hollywood in the comedy genre.

The official synopsis and trailer:

The director and writer/star of Forgetting Sarah Marshall reteam for the irreverent comedy The Five-Year Engagement. Beginning where most romantic comedies end, the new film from director Nicholas Stoller, producer Judd Apatow (Knocked Up, The 40-Year-Old Virgin) and Rodney Rothman (Get Him to the Greek) looks at what happens when an engaged couple, Jason Segel and Emily Blunt, keeps getting tripped up on the long walk down the aisle. The film was written by Segel and Stoller.

Be on the lookout for this one next year, both in terms of quality and the potential for Segel to star in his first $100 million grosser (excluding The Muppets, if it can get there).

Del Toro Out of 'STAR TREK' Sequel; Abrams' Comments Now Have New Meaning...

2011-12-05T18:59:00.001-06:00

NYMag.com is reporting that Benicio Del Toro has turned down the chance to play the villain Khan in the upcoming Star Trek sequel directed by J.J. Abrams, possibly over break down in pay negotiations.

This follows just a few days after Abrams reported to Drew McWeeny that Latino Review's story about Del Toro being cast as Khan was, simply, "Not true."

Most had assumed that what Abrams was referring to was the fact that Khan was the villain -- not just that Del Toro had been cast in the role. Now, today's news puts the comment in a whole new light. But, while others are misinterpreting this as Abrams having lied in his report to McWeeny, there's another angle to see this from...and more logical one, especially considering both Latino and Abrams have excellent reputations of getting things accurate (formerly) and not lying outright (Abrams).

Was Abrams given an almost too-coincidental-to-believe opportunity to try and keep the suspense up a little while longer by already knowing that negotiations had broken down with Del Toro when the first report came out?

Its speculation on my end, but the situation certainly fits the theory. Abrams only confirmed it not be true that Del Toro was playing Khan, not necessarily that Khan wouldn't be the villain...

DECEMBER 2011 PREVIEW - Holmes, Chipmunks, Cruise, Spielberg & Jackson, Fincher, ... and More Spielberg!

2011-12-02T13:01:00.000-06:00

As promised, today I'm presenting my thoughts and advance analysis on ten major releases for the upcoming month of December. As we close out 2011, the start of Winter promises several high profile tent pole releases from well-known actors and filmmakers, as well as a few potential Oscar contenders. As we come out of a bit of a box office slump over the past few months, this holiday season will be a crucial one for Hollywood as we lead into 2012.

Now, without further adieu, my December 2011 Preview. If you'd like to skip ahead to my thoughts on a specific film, please refer to these links:

New Year's Eve
The Sitter
Young Adult
Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
The Adventures of Tintin
Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
We Bought A Zoo
War Horse

New Year's Eve

Friday, December 9th

The semi-sequel to 2010's fellow all-star-driven Valentine's Day, this timely holiday rom-com from director Gerry Marshall will aim to repeat the successful formula of that film. Last time around, however, Valentine's had the benefit of actually launching on its titular holiday weekend (an extended one, no less), ultimately helping to reinforce the gimmick and send it to a massive $56 million debut on its way toward $110 million domestically.

The box office market then, however, was still reeling from the super success of Avatar and other winter holdovers. Conversely, after another down weekend at the box office despite Thanksgiving's boost, the box office market now is much more fragile and typically unkind to films (sequels, in this case) that make little effort to be anything other than a marketing ploy.

Will audiences bite the second time around? To some extent, probably. There's aren't many competitors in the genre this year so New Year's Eve could have a decent run throughout the holidays (and probably see a very nice bump come New Year's for obvious reasons), but I'm skeptical about this one reaching the same heights of success as its quasi-predecessor. The all-star cast and hard marketing push will certainly do it some favors as well.

A more reasonable comparison may be 2006's The Holiday, a rom-com from director Nancy Meyers that pulled $63 million during its run ($75+ million adjusted for inflation) after a modest opening frame on the same weekend that New Year's will also open. I'd expect a somewhat larger opening than the $13 million Holiday saw --something more in line with Its Complicated's $22.1 million Christmas opening in 2009 -- followed by holiday-boosted but otherwise less-than-impressive legs afterward.

The Sitter

Friday, December 9th

Jonah Hill stars in this latest comedy from Pineapple Express director David Gordon Green. Green's last effort, Your Highness tanked with critics and audiences earlier this year when it pulled in only $21.6 million domestically -- less than half of its estimated $50 million budget.

While Highness was a bit more limiting thanks its nature as a stoner comedy, The Sitter might have a little extra appeal if only because its being sold as an R-rated comedy in the vein of Superbad. My thinking, however, is that it won't work. The marketing campaign has failed to convey what exactly sets this movie apart from the umpteen other "hard R" comedies out there these days and, while Hill is certainly well-known, he's still not a guaranteed major box office draw.

Hill's 2010 summer comedy Get Him to the Greek debuted to $17.6 million on its way to almost $61 million domestically. That was with strong reviews, a more audience-friendly release date, a clearer marketing campaign, and multiple familiar faces in its cast. The same cannot be said for The Sitter, however.

With the lack of many successful films in this genre during the holiday season, my feeling is this will perform close to the numbers of Your Highness and potentially even 2007's Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story. The latter bombed with a mere $18 million lifetime haul on a $35 million budget, and quickly proved that not only could Judd Apatow's name turn everything into automatic gold, but that December release date was a huge tactical error on the studio's part (especially considering the film was actually well-received by Apatow fans and the like). I'd expect something similar to those films to happen here as its originally summer release date made oodles more sense.

Young Adult

Friday, December 9th (Limited); Friday, December 16th (Wide)

The latest from director Jason Reitman (Up In the Air, Juno, Thank You For Smoking) teams up the accomplished young director with writer Diablo Cody (Juno) again and starlet Charlize Theron. Releasing in 8 theaters on December 9th before expanding one week later, early tracking has been abysmal with Total Awareness at a mere 30%. Of that, however, Definite Interest is at 24%...a minor ray of hope, especially when its overshadowed by the fact that only 1% of those polled rank it as their first choice.

This is a more difficult film to draw upon relevant comparisons for, but considering the subject matter and lack of upfront interest, Did You Hear About the Morgans? from 2009 might be apropos. That Sarah Jessica Parker rom-com bombed with a $6.6 million opening in December 2009 on its way to just under $30 million domestically. 2010's How Do You Know, featuring an all-star cast, similarly tanked with a $7.5 million opening onward to $30.2 million in its run. Without any Oscar buzz, Young Adult looks destined for something similar (if not less than both of those films).

Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked

Friday, December 16th

To quote Ben Stiller from his Tropic Thunder spoof trailer for "Scorcher": here we go again....again.

Like clockwork, 20th Century Fox has pumped out the third installment of the Alvin franchise to hit theaters in the last four years. Both of the first two installments stunned box office watchers: the first with its huge $44 million opening weekend and subsequent $217 million domestic gross, and the second with its mere ability to keep pace with the standards set by the first film when it also made just under $220 million.

I bet against the last film, and you would think I've learned my lesson...but I'm going to be stubborn on this one and predict that, while Chipwrecked may still do quite well, it won't make the hat trick of $200 million grossers.

What could prove me wrong? Well, several things admittedly.

Other than Tintin (more on that later), there aren't many competing family films releasing any time soon after Alvin 3 on the 16th. Competition will be at a minimum, and that's the only reason I can still see this ending up over $150 million. That said, thanks to proven trends by other series of franchise fatigue around the third or fourth film, the presently slow box office market, and the ever-declining popularity of 3D prices among families trying to save money for Christmas, I think we can safely expect to see a considerable drop in admissions and gross for this third film. Still, unless Hugo can really capitalize on its strong word of mouth, this entry in the series should still be good for another $150 million or so.

Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
Friday, December 16th

Robert Downey, Jr. and Jude Law return as the famous investigative duo of Holmes and Watson. Following the huge success of the first film in director Guy Ritchie's vision of the titular character, a sequel was only natural...and probably planned, given the nature of the open-ended threads at the end of the first film -- namely the subtle hints toward involving Holmes' arch nemesis, Professor Moriarty. And, indeed, Moriarty takes center stage as Game of Shadows' plot-driving villain.

With Warner Bros. positioning the film as its winter tentpole, and arguably, the holiday tentpole of any studio (with only Ghost Protocol being mentionable as "competition") this year, a lot of eyes will be on the film's opening weekend. The 2009 first installment pulled in $62 million during its Christmas Day/Weekend opening, coming in just behind the second weekend of Avatar. Game of Shadows should have no problem whatsoever securing first place this time around, though, and as the first major opener since The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part I, I'm betting we could likely see an increase in opening weekend.

After bagging $210 million domestically, the first Holmes solidified Downey's continued emergence as a reliable box office draw these days. With a sequel whose marketing promises much of the same fun and intrigue of the first film -- as well as an apparently much bigger scale -- its no wonder that Total Awareness is at 81% with Definite Interest around 52% as of earlier this week, according to ItsOnTheGrid.com.

A relevant comparison here could be the National Treasure series. Its first film was a word-of-mouth-driven hit much like the first Holmes. The former pulled in $173 million off of a $35 million opening during the holiday/winter season of 2004-2005. Three years later, the sequel Book of Secrets opened to $44.8 million and grossed $220 million by the end of its run. In terms of ticket sales, that was approximately a 12.7% increase in lifetime ticket sales and a 15% increase in opening weekend admissions.

Aside from the new Mission: Impossible flick releasing one week later, Holmes 2 has very little competition as it heads into the Christmas and New Year's weeks. Much like National Treasure 2 was largely unfazed by the success of I Am Legend in 2007 (just flip the release dates for this comparison), I doubt Holmes 2 will be affected by anything other than itself.

This is one of the very few films this month I'm staying bullish on, and I think we'll see a very similar scenario play out as did with the National Treasure series. Iron Man may also be a fair comparison here as its sequel stayed mostly flat with the first film in admissions despite less-than-stellar word of mouth. I'd imagine we'll again see Holmes break the $200 million barrier with an outside shot at the $230-250 million range if all goes well in the review and word of mouth departments. A $70+ million opening weekend could also be in store, something only three other films have ever accomplished in the month of December (The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, I Am Legend, and Avatar).

The Adventures of Tintin
Wednesday, December 21st

Two titans of industry collaborated over the last half decade to bring this adaptation of the popular Tintin comic to the big screen. The trouble is, however, that its mostly only ever been popular in overseas countries. North American audiences didn't grow up with the classic Herge comics and are hardly familiar with them enough to treat this as the event film that it otherwise be warranted in having treatment as thanks to the names behind the project.

Director Steven Spielberg and producer Peter Jackson have already been given fair amounts of praise for their passion project as the film was released internationally to respectable reviews back in October. So far, the WETA-driven motion capture film has amassed $207 million overseas (as of November 27th, according to Box Office Mojo). While that doesn't include all of its markets being in release yet, it has already tackled major ones like the United Kingdom, France, and Russia.

But what does all of this mean for its domestic performance? Not much. In a day and age where films are now expected to make 60-70% of their money from international markets outside of America, Tintin is in the precarious position of solely relying upon Spielberg's and Jackson's name to sell the film to American audiences over the holidays. 3D prices could help or hurt the picture in this particular case, but more likely the former as the time and care put into the 3D aspect of the film was overseen with great care by the legendary filmmakers behind it.

With a budget reportedly close to $130 million, the bar of success for Tintin appears to be something in the $300-400 million range. Marketing costs, I'm assuming, weren't terribly high given the lack of marketing we've heard reports about in overseas markets. But presuming they spent at least $70-100 million on the promotional end of things, that would put the total budget closer to $200 million -- making a $400 million worldwide gross the (very) rough break-even point.

Barring a major surprise (which is technically possible given the lack of fresh family-friendly movies this holiday season), Tintin looks poised to do somewhere between $100-150 million, I feel. I once had expectations of a slightly larger gross close to $200 million, ala Jackson's own King Kong which debuted on the same weekend in 2005. I'm definitely not ruling that out yet, but the lack of the film exploding overseas in the way it should have isn't an encouraging sign for that kind of performance in a country where very few people have heard of the character or comics before.

I can't even rule out an even more disappointing performance, but with the marquee filmmakers' names, a Christmas release that should at least promise a leggy run, and the sheer lack of competition in the family movie market aside from Alvin 3, Tintin could at least pull a respectable total when all is said and done. Enough for the two captains of the film to greenlight the planned sequel? Much harder to tell right now... But if this thing does come out of nowhere and gross $200-250 million domestically, it would be a safe bet that we get the sequel within the next 3-4 years.

Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol

Friday, December 16th (IMAX Sneaks); Wednesday, December 21st (Wide)

With some franchises, the fourth entry is about the time I'd be calling for a massive decline in ticket sales and gross. However, Mission: Impossible is in a different position. It already experienced that massive decline five and a half years ago with the third installment. Hot off the heels of Tom Cruise's declining popularity at the time, and with no help from the fact that its predecessor (Mission: Impossible 2 wasn't as warmly remembered as its massive year 2000 box office take might have implied it would be), MI3 opened to only $47.7 million as the summer kick-off movie back in May 2006. Eventually, it legged its way out $134 million -- 2.8 times its opening weekend, respectable for any summer blockbuster.

What that film did succeed at, however, was to reinvigorate the franchise. Director J.J. Abrams made his feature film directorial debut with MI3, and in a foreshadowing of what he would do with the Star Trek series a few years later, he gave meaning to the series' characters again and brought back the emphasis on storytelling -- something MI2 was heavily criticized for lacking at times.

Cruise still hasn't completely rebounded as a box office draw since then, and honestly, its unlikely that he ever will. Still, he is a draw with the right film. Sure, Knight & Day was a major disappointment for its studio in summer 2010 when it failed to even reach $100 million domestically (in what was billed as Cruise's return to the action genre), but it was poorly-marketed concept with two slightly out-dated stars to begin with.

Director Brad Bird (The Incredibles) makes his live action directorial debut with Ghost Protocol and early word is that the film doesn't disappoint. Marketing has largely centered around making a point to not make Cruise the center of attention (at least, not as much as he would have been a decade ago) and instead plays up the team-based aspect of the series. Most of the cast is new with only Cruise and Simon Pegg's Benji character from the third film returning in a larger role. The much-buzzed-about scene with Cruise dangling from the Burj Khalifa in Abu Dhabi seems to be the major selling point right now -- and potentially a good one, especially considering it was filmed in IMAX which makes this the go-to Hollywood IMAX flick of the season.

The box office prospects? Best to stay somewhat restrained on this one, methinks. Maybe Cruise and the series are finally due nice resurgence and strong word of mouth during the lucrative holiday season would go a long way toward making that happen. That said, given that adult audiences already have Sherlock Holmes 2 as a fresher series (and one with more appeal to young audiences, as well) to keep their interest, I'm not sensing an extraordinary domestic performance is going to be in store for Ghost Protocol -- something that will only perpetuate the many arguments that Paramount should have moved the release date further away from the Robert Downey, Jr.-led sequel.

One relevant comparison may be the Die Hard franchise, where after a considerable amount of time passed between the third and fourth films, Live Free and Die Hard surprised some in the industry with its successful $135 million run in the summer of 2007. Like Cruise now, Willis was/is considered an aging action star in a franchise whose time had come and gone. But that installment gave new reasons for audiences to come back (or simply discover it), and Ghost Protocol might be to accomplish something similar in a best case scenario.

MI3 adjusts to a $58 million opening weekend and $162 million overall with today's ticket prices. Factor in some minor inflation for the new film's IMAX run, and generally assuming that the audience probably hasn't grown all that much, I'm looking for a gross in the $150-175 million range once again.

The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Wednesday, December 21st

Director David Fincher's (The Social Network, Se7en, Benjamin Button) anticipated adaptation of the best-selling series arrives in time for Christmas. The marketing itself has played up the irony of the film's release during the normally family-driven holiday season, but with a small-yet-loyal fan base out there for the books and the Swedish adaptations of the films, there's certainly some potential in where this could go.

To date, Fincher's highest grossing film is Benjamin Button ($127.5 million in 2008) followed by Se7en, The Social Network, and Panic Room each hovering around the $100 million mark (all unadjusted). He has a talent and a history for taking material that might ordinarily go under most peoples' radars and turning into an accessible mainstream movie.

While the darkness of Tattoo might still keep some audiences looking elsewhere for their Christmas entertainment, the buzz behind the final product and Fincher's own history suggest that a small break out is in the cards. The make-or-break factor may end up being how much attention it can garner during awards season as the film is likely to be back-loaded, posting a humble opening over the Christmas week debut but slowly building and maintaining its audience in the weeks/months afterward.

Odd as it may sound, one of my favorite comparisons right now for a low-end performance is 2006's The Good Shepherd. That R-rated adult-driven thrilled debuted three days before Christmas with an opening weekend right at $10 million. It went on to leg its way out to $60 million, or close to $70 million if adjusting for today's ticket prices. Shepherd boasted an all-star cast with a hard premise to sell, while Tattoo lacks the big names but can claim pre-established recognition thanks to the books. The former also had next-to-zero Oscar buzz to speak of, which could be a game-changer for Tattoo. For now, I'm conservatively predicting a gross between $80-100 million.

We Bought A Zoo
Friday, December 23rd

Matt Damon and Scarlett Johansson headline director Cameron Crowe's first film since Elizabethtown disappointed back in 2005. Prior to that, however, Crowe gained incredible success with the string of Jerry Maguire, Almost Famous, and Vanilla Sky (to a lesser extent) between 1996 and 2001. Excluding the 2005 flop, he's a filmmaker known for pleasing his audience and more than making back his budgets at the box office.

We Bought A Zoo is a bit of a new turn for Crowe, however. The trailer evokes his much lighter side, one that actually makes this a potential crowd-pleaser for those who aren't typically part of his crowd: families. Damon's father figure and Elle Fanning's daughter role underline the family aspect of the film while the lighthearted humor adequately positions the movie as the alternative choice to the big action/adventure films of the holiday season.

Its still a bit too early to nail down expectations, but I'm going with my gut and forecasting that the film lives up to its promising advertisements and pulls off a mini-breakout. Marley & Me strikes a relevant chord and even shared a similar release date (Christmas Day, 2008) as Zoo does, which ultimately makes it my favorite comparison for the time being. The former surprised many with its $36 million opening three Christmases ago, and it went on to finish with $143 million domestically. That was also in the face of three other new releases on the same weekend: an Adam Sandler movie, a Brad Pitt movie, and a Tom Cruise movie, no less. That's fairly comparable to Zoo's situation this year, but everything boils down to the quality of the final product.

If word of mouth is as strong as I'm suspecting it might be (based almost entirely on the trailers and Crowe's history, admittedly), We Bought A Zoo could be the sleeper hit of the holidays and make a run for $100 million or more. Yes, despite films by Tom Cruise, Robert Downey, Jr., Steven Spielberg, and Peter Jackson...this is my "all in" call for this month.

War Horse
Sunday, December 25th

My last film of the preview...wait, didn't I just cover a Spielberg movie?

True to form, filmmaker Steven Spielberg proves his multitasking skills are still sharp by releasing his second film of the year ... a mere four days after his first (Tintin). The two films are mostly polar opposites in the audience they're aiming for, so the strategy here is quite obviously for Tintin to capture its family/teenage audience while War Horse aims primarily for older crowds and an eventual awards' season boost.

Early buzz has been very respectable on the film, but I personally have to wonder if this will be another fairly "under the radar" picture for Spielberg. The last time he directed two films in the same year, he delivered his remake of War of the Worlds in the summer of 2005 followed by the much smaller production Munich two days before Christmas that year. The latter went wide in early January, opening to $7.6 million and ultimately making $47.4 million during its run. Another comparison: Steven's Amistad, his 1997 award season entry that similarly debuted in December and made $44 million (unadjusted for inflation).

The lack of any recognizable names or faces in War Horse automatically puts it at a slight disadvantage during a time of year when there are plenty of options out there for audiences. Equally as disadvantageous is the fact that the subject matter and tone of the film is incredibly subdued, being built around the promise of an emotional story against the backdrop of a war, but ultimately feeling a bit disconnected from what most audiences come to expect and/or prefer out of Spielberg's films.

Its clear that War Horse is meant to play for a long period of time and generate word of mouth as it heads into Hollywood's award season while Spielberg's other entry in Tintin is the one meant to make the big money. The film, however, has a rumored $90 million budget (but this requires further confirmation). If true, then I suspect this will go down as one of Steven's rare box office misses as I have trouble seeing a gross much beyond $75 million domestically. If, however, it can trump that and get closer to $90-100 million while posting a similar/larger international take, then things would turn out just fine and dandy for Spielberg's intimate project of the year.

For now, I think the most relevant comparison will be 2007's The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep, a lower-profile fantasy film that released on Christmas Day and posted a modest $9 million opening weekend before reaching $41 million by the end of its run despite no familiar stars, no marquee filmmaker's name attached, and no awards buzz. I imagine War Horse will be able to accomplish a fair bit more, between $60-75 million as of now. This is definitely an interesting run to watch for, and given the filmmaker behind it, its safe to say anything can happen.

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That wraps the December Preview! Be sure to stay tuned to BoxOfficeTheory.com as I have a number of upcoming articles this month that will continue to expand upon box office discussion, as well as a few major changes/announcements coming down the pike in the near future.

Box Office Preview: 'MUPPETS' vs. 'BREAKING DAWN' Could Be a Nailbiter with No New Releases

2011-12-02T00:17:00.000-06:00

1. The Muppets - $14.4 million (-50.7%)
2. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part I - $14.3 million (-65.7%)
3. Hugo - $10.8 million (-5%)
4. The Descendants - $7.1 million (-3.3%)
5. Arthur Christmas - $6.8 million (-43.7%)

Mine will be a very brief thought or two this weekend on account of A) having no new releases to discuss and B) my being on a time crunch. (Side note: come back tomorrow -- Friday -- for my full December preview and thoughts on what to expect from the major releases of the month.)

As the Thanksgiving holiday is over, most audiences will retreat from the cinemas this weekend when historically the post-holiday drop is felt across most films. Two exceptions, however, could be Martin Scorsese's Hugo -- which is expanding its theaters by 44% over last week and is receiving excellent word of mouth, and the even smaller comedy / drama release The Descendants, starring George Clooney, will performed excellently in its debut last weekend with over $7.3 million from just 390 theaters. That film is also generating strong word of mouth amongst adult audiences and the "awards crowd".

Where You Can Expect to See 'THE DARK KNIGHT RISES' IMAX Prologue on December 16th, and the Implications of a Selective Theatrical Release (UPDATED)

2011-11-30T11:47:00.018-06:00

12/1 Update: Warner Bros. has officially released the list of theaters where the 6-minute prologue will show. Details at the bottom of this post. (End update)

In recent months, director Christopher Nolan and co. announced that not only would they be putting out a 6/7-minute prologue to The Dark Knight Rises in IMAX theaters this December in front of Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol, but that it would only show in traditional 70mm IMAX theaters. While we never had any reason to doubt that to be true, WhatCulture.com is now semi-confirming that the same standard will apply to international theaters as well. Their example: out of the 18 IMAX theaters based in the United Kingdom, it appears that the prologue will only show in 4 or 5 of them.

So what does this mean for you? Moreover, what are they really trying to accomplish with this selective IMAX release strategy?

North American fans can expect a similar difficulty in finding a location near them. Why? Because in recent years, IMAX has infamously executed the opening of a number of smaller digital IMAX theaters. This was in large part due to the growing demand for Hollywood movies shown in the IMAX format, while simultaneously compromising on the size and presentation of the IMAX movie itself because of cost and development logistics of the "real" large IMAX theaters. While not a crime to try and appease demand with a compromise, it was certainly a slap in the face of movie fans to try and pass it off as being the same as "The IMAX Experience".

If you head over to LFExaminer.com, you'll find a comprehensive and mostly up-to-date list of IMAX theaters both internationally and domestically.

For a prime example on how few theaters will actually be showing the prologue, just look at California: of the 49 listed large format theaters in the state, only 10 of them are non-digital 70mm theaters. In other words, the prologue will more than likely only show in those 10 theaters (give or take).

In New York: 5 out of 21 IMAX theaters are likely to be showing the footage (and probably not many more).

Florida: 7 out of 33.

The list goes on, but just a quick skim reveals that we can expect an average of 20-25% of IMAX theaters around the globe to be showing the anticipated prologue. No doubt, this may upset some fans who won't have easy access to the proper IMAX theater...especially given that the 6-minute prologue for The Dark Knight, which ran in front of I Am Legend in IMAX theaters back in December 2007, was showing in most IMAX locations (though there were considerably fewer at the time).

My two cents? This is exactly what Warner Bros. and Christopher Nolan need to do. Like 3D, the IMAX format has increased dramatically in audience popularity over the last few years. Unlike 3D, however, IMAX performances have remained consistently strong and you'll seldom hear many complaints about the presentation of an IMAX movie. Conversely, 3D is infamous for poor conversions and a number of other controversies around the format, finding success now only in the truly well-developed 3D films that actually call for the use of the format as something more than a gimmick and/or a way to inflate ticket prices.

I've felt for a long time that IMAX is the future that the movie industry needs to push toward. It makes the movie-going experience a "premium" one again, something audiences are clamoring for -- and that shows by the slowly-declining ticket sales of recent years (thanks not just to new sources of competition like On-Demand and Netflix, but also to rising ticket prices and the declining level of quality in movies being produced).

But what does selectively releasing a 6-minute prologue to a highly-anticipated blockbuster accomplish?

Demand.

While it is certainly a far more costly endeavor, it is now time that a studio/filmmaker/film helps to call well-deserved attention to the appeal and potential of true IMAX presentations, not the "fake" digital/smaller auditoriums that the company has tried to pass off as "The IMAX Experience" for the last three years (something that comedian/actor Aziz Ansari famously -- and rightfully -- ranted about back in 2009).

This past summer, Box Office Theory was among the first to report the rumor that The Dark Knight Rises may wind up with 75% of the film shot and exhibited in full IMAX format when it releases next summer. That report is still very unconfirmed, and could in fact prove to be an exaggeration since there is nothing even close to that precedent for a Hollywood movie. However, its also believable from the standpoint that director Christopher Nolan and cinematographer Wally Pfister have spoken candidly in recent months/years about wanting to do as much as they possibly could with the IMAX presentation.

In other words: like Avatar brought modern 3D presentations into the forefront of the film industry consciousness two years ago, The Dark Knight Rises seems to be aiming to do something similar (albeit, on a slightly different widespread scale) with IMAX.

But in order to show to the industry that the investment into real IMAX theaters is worth it, the filmmakers and studios need to prove it first...and what better way to do that than by bottle-necking huge demand by only showing this footage in the theaters that can actually show it the way it was meant to be watched?

Its the filmmakers' true vision, not a watered-down imitation taking advantage of patrons' wallets by over-charging for an inferior product (and the "fake" digital IMAX theaters now account for at least half of all IMAX theaters in North America).

So while it may inconvenience a lot of movie fans not being able to catch the prologue in a nearby IMAX theater, there is certainly some good to come of it if those us supporting the future expansion of legitimate 70mm IMAX theaters end up correct. Because if this prologue helps drive audiences to those select theaters, and then is followed by a potentially record-breaking IMAX run of the film itself next summer...the industry will listen, and we might finally start to see the global expansion of IMAX theaters once again include the true "IMAX Experience".

-----
A brief note from director Christopher Nolan, followed by the list of North American theaters where the prologue will show:

“Our experience on ‘The Dark Knight’ shooting and projecting IMAX 15 perf 65mm/70mm film was inspiring. The immersive quality of the image goes beyond any other filmmaking tool available, and in revisiting Gotham, we were determined to shoot even more of the movie in this unique format. Giving the fans an early look at an IMAX sequence is a great way to draw attention to what I believe will be an incredible way to experience our story when it comes out next summer.”

Market - Theatre - City

Austin, TX - IMAX Theater Austin - Austin
Boston, MA - Jordan’s IMAX - Natick
Boston, MA - IMAX 3D Theatre in Reading - Reading
Calgary, AB - Scotiabank Theatre Chinook 16 - Calgary
Chantilly, VA/Washington, DC - Udvar-Hazy Center IMAX - Chantilly
Chicago, IL - Navy Pier IMAX Theatre - Chicago
Des Moines, IA - SCI IMAX Dome Theater - Des Moines
Detroit, MI - Henry Ford IMAX - Dearborn
Edmonton, AB - Scotiabank Theatre Edmonton - Edmonton
Harrisburg, PA - Whitaker Center for Science & the Arts - Harrisburg
Houston, TX - Houston Marq*e Stadium 22 + IMAX - Houston
Indianapolis - White River IMAX - Indianapolis
Los Angeles, CA - Irvine Spectrum 20 + IMAX - Irvine
Los Angeles, CA - RAVE 18 + IMAX - Los Angeles
Los Angeles, CA - Ontario Palace Stadium 22 + IMAX - Ontario
Los Angeles, CA - Citywalk Stadium 19 with IMAX - Universal City
Madison, WI - Star 18 Fitchburg with IMAX - Fitchburg
Miami, FL - AutoNation IMAX - Fort Lauderdale
Minneapolis, MN - Great Clips IMAX - Apple Valley
Montreal, QC - Cinema Banque Scotia Montreal - Montreal
Nashville,TN - Opry Mills Stadium 20 + IMAX - Nashville
New York, NY - Lincoln Square 13 with IMAX - New York
New York, NY - Palisades IMAX - West Nyack
Omaha, NE - Star Cinema 16 with IMAX - Council Bluffs
Orlando, FL - Pointe Orlando Stadium 20 + IMAX - Orlando
Ottawa, ON - Silvercity Gloucester + IMAX - Gloucester
Palm Springs - Desert IMAX Theatre - Cathedral City
Philadelphia, PA - IMAX & the Tropicana - Atlantic City
Philadelphia, PA - Tuttleman IMAX–Franklin Institute - Philadelphia
Phoenix, AZ - Arizona Mills 25 with IMAX - Tempe
Providence, RI - Providence Place 16 with IMAX - Providence
Quebec City, QC - IMAX Le Theatre At Quebec - Quebec City
Sacramento, CA - Esquire IMAX - Sacramento
San Antonio, TX - IMAX at RiverCenter - San Antonio
San Francisco, CA - Metreon 16 with IMAX & ETX - San Francisco
Seattle, WA - Boeing IMAX–Pacific Science Center - Seattle
Tampa, FL - Museum of Science and Industry - Tampa
Toronto, ON - Coliseum 12 Mississauga + IMAX - Mississauga
Toronto, ON - Scotiabank Theatre Toronto + IMAX - Toronto
Toronto, ON - Colossus 18 Woodbridge + IMAX - Woodbridge-Vaughan
Vancouver, BC - Colossus Langley + IMAX - Langley
Vancouver, BC - Silvercity Riverport 18 + IMAX - Richmond

Below is a list of the theatres in the UK in which the Prologue of “The Dark Knight Rises” will be revealed on December 21st:

UK - BFI London - London
UK - National Media Museum IMAX - Bradford
UK - Glasgow Science Centre IMAX Cinema - Glasgow
UK - Odeon Manchester IMAX @ The Printworks - Manchester

List Source: ComingSoon.net

Elijah Wood Says 'HOBBIT' Teaser to Debut with 'TINTIN' in North America

2011-11-28T13:18:00.003-06:00

Following up on last week's report that the teaser trailer for The Hobbit could debut in front of Sherlock Holmes 2 on December 16, now comes word from Elijah Wood (Frodo) that it may in fact debut with Steven Spielberg's and Peter Jackson's The Adventures of Tintin when it releases on December 21 in North America.

This conflicts with Variety reporter Jeff Sneider's comments on Twitter last week about the possible Sherlock debut, though he was careful to mention it was not definitive yet.

My two cents: Tintin makes sense for a number of reasons given the relationship to Jackson and the 3D & IMAX presentation that both it and The Hobbit will share. However, debuting with Holmes 2 makes just as much sense considering the studio relationship of Warner Bros. The downside in that scenario, however, is that its looking like the first full trailer for The Dark Knight Rises will premiere with that film.

While both could potentially debut at the same time and still generate ample amounts of online buzz, I wouldn't be quick to put either film in a position to detract buzz away from the other if I were Warner Bros. They have a very rare opportunity with these two releases in 2012. Each film deserves its time in the lime light, and each film has a massive amount of interest and anticipation behind it. Releasing the trailers at least one week apart would, in my mind, be the wiser option. In that case, I would debut The Hobbit teaser with Tintin, but also work with theaters to attach it to prints of Holmes 2 starting on the same day (December 21).

News Source: DigitalSpy.com

Friday Studio Estimates: 'BREAKING DAWN' $17 million; 'MUPPETS' $12 million

2011-11-26T10:26:00.001-06:00

Official estimates from studios indicate that Breaking Dawn: Part I will hold on to the top spot this 3-day holiday weekend while The Muppets should follow closely behind. Meanwhile, Happy Feet Two pulled $5 million on Friday while Hugo and Arthur Christmas held their own with about $4.5 million each (Hugo's take being far more impressive considering its 1,200 theater count -- 3D prices or not).

I certainly got a bit overzealous with my final Muppets prediction a few days ago, but all in all, the film is doing very well so far and, thanks to excellent word of mouth, could likely be able to jump ahead of Breaking Dawn by next weekend.

More analysis after the weekend is over, but when all is said and done this looks like another somewhat disappointing weekend for the overall box office market.

Thanksgiving Box Office Preview: 'THE MUPPETS' Ready to Dominate? Can 'HUGO' Find Its Audience? How Much Will 'BREAKING DAWN' Drop?

2011-11-22T11:36:00.014-06:00

1. The Muppets - $42.0 million 3-day; $60.3 million 5-day (NEW)
2. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part I - $41.7 million (-69.8%)
3. Happy Feet Two - $17.6 million (-13%)
4. Arthur Christmas - $12.1 million 3-day; $16.5 million 5-day (NEW)
5. Immortals - $8.2 million (-33.6%)
6. Jack and Jill - $7.0 million (-40%)
7. Hugo - $6.5 million 3-day; $9.7 million 5-day (NEW)

As Hollywood continues to soak in the massive success of Breaking Dawn's opening weekend, eyes will now shift toward the Thanksgiving weekend that sees the debut of three new wide releases -- one of which may have its sights set on upsetting the Twilight sequel for the top spot: the theatrical return of The Muppets.

The Muppet franchise hasn't been known for producing huge box office performers in recent decades, but that could change this year with a number of very supportive factors behind it. My full analysis inside...

On this heavily family-driven holiday weekend at the box office, one film should stand above the rest in term of its widespread appeal and built-in interest: The Muppets. A reboot for all intents and purposes, the film is already generating incredible reviews (with a 100% on Rotten Tomatoes after 47 reviews so far) and seems to be painting an image I had long thought would be the case: that Jason Segel has helped turn around the franchise in much the same way that J.J. Abrams did with Star Trek.

The Muppet franchise started with a bang at movie theaters when, thirty-two years ago, The Muppet Movie grossed $65.2 million in its domestic run. Doesn't sound like much? Well, in terms of ticket sales, that adjusts to roughly $206 million today.

Much like the Star Trek franchise declined in ticket sales with each passing installment throughout the 1980s and 1990s, the Muppet franchise quickly descended from the height of its popularity over the years but still maintained that constant level of success thanks to an incredible pop culture identity and relevance.

The first huge plus for The Muppets: Disney. The Disney brand name has proven to have consistently reliable draw with family audiences, especially at this time of year. So much so that two great comparisons for the film look to be Enchanted and Tangled. The former was Disney's 2007 Thanksgiving release which debuted to $49 million over its first five days. The latter was the studio's 2010 release on the same weekend, which thanks to some 3D price inflation, gobbled up a big $68.7 million over the same 5-day frame. And, whereas Enchanted ran head on into Alvin and the Chipmunks in 2007, Tangled faced minimal competition from the family audience last year -- something The Muppets has in common with it, outside of the third Alvin entry (which I expect to be less successful than its two predecessors).

The other benefit behind the Disney name has been their marketing power. Not only is awareness incredibly high thanks to possibly the best marketing campaign I've seen come out of Hollywood in over a year, but a brilliant viral campaign aimed toward the older generation that grew up with the lovable Muppets has helped draw in the interest of the younger generation of moviegoers. From trailers spoofing The Hangover Part II and The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, to posters spoofing Twilight, the studio has made every attempt to attract the 25+ aged audience (and have so far succeeded in spades).

Another fair comparison to The Muppets is last year's Toy Story 3. After being absent from theaters for over a decade itself, many were skeptical as to whether the latter would still attract the same interest it did in the age where computer animated movies are now a dime-a-dozen. Thanks to a huge marketing campaign boosted in large part by nostalgic tie-ins (exactly like The Muppets has included so far), that Pixar sequel not only gave Pixar its biggest opening ever but had excellent reviews and word of mouth to support its legs throughout the summer.

I expect the same to happen all over again with The Muppets.

This year has further proven one more thing in support of The Muppets: audiences are a fatigued with CG animated sequels (and otherwise unworthy attempts in the genre). Cars 2, Kung Fu Panda 2, and last week's own Happy Feet Two all heavily disappointed at the box office.

If ever there was a time ripe for a major non-animation family movie success, its right now with The Muppets and its near-universal appeal. Don't count Jason Segel and Amy Adams short, either. The former has slowly by steadily built his popularity over the years as part of the Judd Apatow crew and on the hit series "How I Met Your Mother" (his involvement with Muppets is, in fact, largely inspired by the scene he wrote in Forgetting Sarah Marshall featuring an entire muppet-based musical for its climax). Meanwhile, Adams needs no explanation: she's an Oscar-nominated actress, one of Hollywood's current "It" actresses, and has already found massive success in a holiday-timed Disney release once before with the aforementioned Enchanted.

Let's also not forget the success of other 80's revivals such as 2007's Alvin and the Chipmunks ($44 million opening weekend in December) and this year's own The Smurfs. Even more recently, the success of The Lion King 3D re-release proved that nostalgia could even drive a non-new release.

In short: The Muppets offers a wide variety of reasons for audiences to start showing back up to cinemas this weekend. That's why I'm essentially going "all in" and forecasting a huge $40+ million 3-day opening for the revival film, with the potential of hitting $60+ million over the extended Wednesday-Sunday weekend. Long term, while I'm staying slightly conservative and forecasting a $170-180 million domestic total, I would not be at all surprised if it made a run for the original Muppet Movie's ticket sales and topped $200 million itself before its run ends in early 2012.

While those opening numbers might seem optimistic, keep in mind that there is very little competition in the marketplace right now. In fact, compared to 2010 and 2005 (the last time the calendar fell on the same exact days), even if Muppets debuts to $40+ million over the 3-day like I suspect it will, it looks like the total top 12 gross for the weekend could potentially reach only $150-160 million. By comparison, 2010's and 2005's same holiday weekend adjust to approximately $170-180 million. So either Muppets goes even higher, or it does incredibly well and we still are faced with the fact that the box office as a whole is in a big slump.

Meanwhile, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part I should see the standard big second weekend drop we've come to expect from front-loaded franchises.

A similar 70% drop as New Moon saw two years ago would put the penultimate film around $41-42 million for the weekend, which in my estimation, puts it on target for a close race with The Muppets for #1 over the 3-day weekend.

Arthur Christmas releases this weekend as well, and while it may be able to find a decent audience thanks to the holiday theme, its ultimately going to be third choice even for family audiences with films like The Muppets and Happy Feet Two taking away the lion's share of interest.

Flixster votes aren't helping its case either with only a 67% "want to see" score from a paltry 4,600+ votes on the day before release. I'm expecting a 3-day take in the range of $11-13 million, with the 5-day somewhere between $15-17 million.

Last up is director Martin Scorsese's first foray into the family-centric genre with Hugo. While the film has received some positive early reviews (and its 3D praised by James Cameron himself), the film is releasing into only 1,200 theaters this weekend and is not based on a well-known property.

Furthermore, Scorsese is in a unique position with the film. Despite his draw with older audiences, there's no evidence to support him being a draw for this kind of film yet...especially when there are three other films out there competing for the same audience (one of which doesn't have 3D to shy people away).

Hugo could potentially go on to exhibit some strong legs over the next month and a half if word of mouth kicks on while it slowly expands to more theaters, but for now, I'm looking for a 3-day opening between $5-7 million and a 5-day that may not top $10 million. (This is certainly one of the harder films to call in a very long time, though.)

That wraps up my Thanksgiving weekend preview. Please feel free to join our new forums (linked at the top) and participate in the discussion of all these films (and many, many more)!

Report: Variety Writer Confirms 'THE HOBBIT' & 'THE DARK KNIGHT RISES' Teasers In Front of 'SHERLOCK HOLMES 2'?

2011-11-21T19:24:00.001-06:00

Source: Jeff Snieder (Variety)

The headline pretty much says it all. Last week, The Hobbit actor Andy Serkis semi-confirmed that we'd be getting a teaser for the highly anticipated prequel by Christmas. I had speculated about where we might see that trailer, as well as that of Warner Bros.' other highly-anticipated 2012 sequel, The Dark Knight Rises.

Via Twitter tonight, Variety writer Jeff Sneider is reporting that the first full trailer for TDKR will play in front of Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows when it releases on December 16. He also goes on to say, "...and MAYBE even a HOBBIT teaser."

While this is still unconfirmed by the studio, this is a reliable sign that we may indeed see BOTH trailers debut on the same day and with the same film. If true, this would be somewhat unprecedented for a studio to debut trailers for two such massively-hyped franchise installments at virtually the exact same time.

Stay tuned as more updates come in on these two films, but for now, the countdown is officially on for December 16th now for many, many fans out there...

EMPIRE Magazine Reveals New 'DARK KNIGHT RISES' Pics & Brief Plot Info from Christopher Nolan

2011-11-21T10:46:00.001-06:00

Source: ComingSoon.net

Empire Magazine's newest issue has several exclusives from The Dark Knight Rises, including four new images of Batman and Bane. The issue also includes brief interviews with director Christopher Nolan and actor Tom Hardy (Bane), the former of which confirms that the film's events take place eight years after The Dark Knight:

"It's really all about finishing Batman and Bruce Wayne's story. We left him in a very precarious place. Perhaps surprisingly for some people, our story picks up quite a bit later, eight years after 'The Dark Knight.' So he's an older Bruce Wayne; he's not in a great state. With Bane, we're looking to give Batman a challenge he hasn't had before. With our choice of villain and with our choice of story we're testing Batman both physically as well as mentally."

To read more and check out several new photos, head over to ComingSoon.net.

Friday Estimates: 'BREAKING DAWN: PART I' bags $72 million (via Summit Entertainment); 'HAPPY FEET TWO' Flops

2011-11-19T10:40:00.005-06:00

Meanwhile, Happy Feet Two bombs with only $5.2 million. Far worse than I was already predicting, but as I outlined in my column on Thursday, this attempt at counter-programming against a mammoth release failed on several levels. Had it been an animated sequel that audiences actually wanted, the strategy might have worked a little better. As it stands, it seems the five-year gap and glut of animated sequels this year probably worked against it.

The $72 million estimate from Breaking Dawn: Part I includes $30.25 million from midnight and would rank as the third-biggest single day of all-time if it holds accurate. New Moon grossed $72.7 million on its opening day. That film bagged $26.3 million at midnight, indicating that Breaking Dawn's slightly lower post-midnight performance continues the emerging trend of the Twilight franchise to become more and more front-loaded (this similarly happened to the Harry Potter franchise as it aged).

All that said, its a huge number for the series and bodes well for a weekend tally between $130-140 million.

More updates later...

Box Office Preview: Will 'BREAKING DAWN: PART I' Live Up To 'NEW MOON' & 'ECLIPSE' Openings? (UPDATED: $30.25m Midnights))

2011-11-17T19:31:00.013-06:00

1. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn (Part I) - $127.5 million (NEW)
2. Happy Feet Two - $36.0 million (NEW)
3. Immortals - $14.0 million (-56.5%)
4. Puss in Boots - $13.98 million (-43.4%)
5. Jack and Jill - $11.8 million (-52.8%)
6. J. Edgar - $5.4 million (-52.3%)

Friday Noon Update: Box Office Mojo is reporting that Breaking Dawn: Part I did about $30.25 million at midnight, exactly in line with Eclipse's $30 million debut. (End update.)

If the performances of Puss in Boots and Immortals were only part of the unofficial beginning to the 2011 holiday movie season, then the opening of The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part I is the indisputable kick-off to what Hollywood hopes will be a very lucrative year-end. But, can the fourth installment of the Twilight franchise live up to the performances of its two most recent predecessors?

Meanwhile, the sequel that not many people asked for -- Happy Feet Two -- also debuts this weekend in an attempt to steal the spotlight away from the aforementioned animated hit, Puss in Boots. More after the jump.

Two years ago this weekend, the first sequel in the Twilight franchise, New Moon, stunned the industry when it broke the opening day record (at the time) with over $72 million on its way to $142.8 million for the opening weekend. At the time, that was the third biggest in history (second only to The Dark Knight and Spider-Man 3). That opening day tally also included $26.3 million from midnight premiere showings alone.

Seven months later, Eclipse became the first film in the series to try out a summer release...and it paid off. The series broke the midnight record (again), that time with over $30 million. The film's 4-day (Wednesday through Saturday) gross ended up at $144.3 million. (I'm using the 4-day as a reference due to my own theory that Wednesday openers can roughly have their would-be normal 3-day weekend projected out based on the average of the 3- and 5-day actual total...also, because its Sunday was the 4th of July.)

Eclipse ultimately captured the $300 million domestic benchmark, a feat that New Moon just barely missed out on.

One month later, Summit announced that it was going to "pull a Harry Potter" (not their words...) by splitting the final installment of its series. Breaking Dawn: Part I would release in November 2012, with Part II -- the final chapter -- due exactly one year after. In other words, they knew they had a cash cow and couldn't wait to capitalize on it by any means necessary...even if a split film wasn't exactly something that the narrative called for (granted, that could be subjective).

Now, here we are today. Breaking Dawn: Part I will get its midnight debut within a few hours of my writing this column. While die hard fans are no doubt waiting anxiously in line right now, analysts like myself are noticing some "concerning" numbers for the film when compared to its predecessors. Midnight sales have been tracking well behind those of New Moon and Eclipse, and possibly even last year's Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I (which also opened on this same pre-Thanksgiving weekend).

Flixster data won't tell us much this week (especially since Eclipse released before I was compiling data from the site), but for reference, Dawn stands at about 52,000+ ratings as of Thursday evening (with an 89% "want to see" score).

While I've been wrong with this series before, the slower midnight sales and seemingly not-quite-as-huge buzz for the film seem to be lining up with what I've always felt would happen here. The book itself has always been the most controversial, and based on my own experiences and here say, not as well liked as the first three books -- even by most fans. Combine with the relative performance of Potter itself on this weekend last year. Despite the stronger hype and anticipated behind that first-parter, the film opened to $125 million. That, however, was to be expected (mostly), but it just went to prove that the "Finale Factor" (another theory of mine that I accurately used to predict the final Potter film this past summer) didn't apply unless it was actually the final film. Being part of the final film didn't matter then, and I certainly don't expect it to matter this weekend.

Further comparisons support my prediction of Breaking Dawn: Part I dropping somewhat from New Moon's $142 million opening: six years ago this weekend, when the calendar last fell the same way, another Potter film -- Goblet of Fire -- debuted to $102.7 million, which was huge at the time.

It was a beloved book and it hit new heights in anticipation for the series. That opening now adjusts to...about $127.5 million.

Three years before that, Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets debuted to $88.4 million. That's $121 million adjusted for inflation. Noticing a pattern here?

Granted, Twilight is not Potter. New Moon out-performed every Potter film except one (the last one) on opening weekend even when they didn't necessarily out-perform them in the long run. Front-loading was always Potter's game, but Twilight has thus far taken it even further -- resulting in bigger openings and shorter legs than the already-top-heavy Potter franchise.

But this time, with a film based on a divisive book, arguably needlessly split into two films, and not selling as well in advance as the series normally does, I'm banking on Breaking Dawn: Part I opening to a still massive $127.5 million. (But don't be too shocked if it pulls something like $145-150 million, because again, I fully admit to not having a great track record predicting the openings of this series of films. I'm hoping that finally changes this weekend.)

Summit won't complain as the budget will already be (more than) made back within three days...but as far as box office summits go (pun intended), I think the franchise already peaked for now. Long term: its a safe bet that Dawn: Part I misses the $300 million benchmark even if it can open higher than $135-140 million this weekend. Reviews aren't favorable, but more importantly, there's far less action to keep its minimal male audience intrigued as much as Eclipse did. But who knows? The female component of the "date crowd" can be rather convincing with their male counterparts. Nevertheless, I'm expecting a domestic total in the vicinity of $265-275 million.

Believe it or not, there is another noteworthy new release this weekend: Happy Feet Two. The first film debuted on this weekend five years ago against the James Bond reboot/prequel, Casino Royale. Admittedly much less staunch competition for the animated hit, but ultimately, the audiences didn't really cross over and I suspect that to be the same case this weekend against the Twilight juggernaut.

That said, the animated genre has proven how tired its been in 2011. Films like Rio and Rango both missed the $40 million opening plateau earlier this year (the former even had the aid of 3D prices), while supposedly uber-hyped sequels like Kung Fu Panda 2 and Cars 2 both disappointed over the summer -- especially the former, which I feel is an apt comparison for Happy Feet Two.

The next hurdle the animated sequel has to get past? Puss in Boots. DreamWorks' spin-off has proven to be a huge hit with some staggering holds in its first few weeks, proving that people will still turn out for the genre when its done justice. With the excellent word of mouth from that film, it could hold relatively well in the face Happy Feet Two enough to put a small dent in the latter's opening weekend. Let's also not forget the upcoming The Muppets, and Arthur Christmas to a much lesser extent, that could result in some families simply waiting it out.

The third hurdle? Itself. Happy Feet was very well-liked at the time of its release, but it did put off its fair share of audiences with the "preachy" message it adopted toward the end. That in itself may not hurt its sequel too much, but the first film has certainly not held up its popularity over the last few years for one reason or another. That's not to say that it isn't still well-liked, though.

In the end, it usually takes a really special animated feature to warrant a sequel that can do better numbers at the box office and if it isn't "special" then it should at least be timely. Had Happy Feet Two debuted two or three years ago, especially before the 3D backlash, it might have fared better than I think it will this weekend. Flixster votes come in at an underwhelming 9,300+ votes as of Thursday night with only a 78% "want to see" score. The most recent market comparison there is, again, Puss in Boots. That film tallied 11,000+ votes with an 89% score...and still opened to a moderate $34.1 million three weekends ago (before kicking off its amazing legs).

Given the general lack of buzz around the film, the lack of any fresh ideas in the marketing or concept, the nature of its audience having grown up in the last five years, the 3D backlash, the glut of family/animated films on -- or soon coming to -- the marketplace, and the all-around fatigue that the animated genre has experienced this year, expect Happy Feet Two to fall short of its predecessor's $41.5 million opening in 2006.

As a statistical point of reference, look at Kung Fu Panda 2. That sequel dropped 20% in inflation-adjusted opening gross (over its 4-day total) from its predecessor's 3-day opening. If Happy Feet Two does the same, it will land around $40 million. But again, that was based on a four-day and KFP2 had the aid of Memorial Day weekend...not to mention a far more popular first movie.

All of this said, total box office for the weekend should eclipse $200 million total in North America, making it potentially one of the biggest on record. Hollywood will certainly taut that when it happens after a disappointing October, but reading between the lines, that kind of number -- while strong -- isn't quite as impressive as it used to be. Still, it would be a great sign of things to come this holiday season.

BOT Officially Developing a New DERBY Game! Critical Donation & Game Information Detailed Inside...

2011-11-15T17:50:00.003-06:00

Fellow Box Office Theory Members,

First off, I want to personally thank you all for the success of our new message boards that launched one week ago today! Your generosity and contributions have made it all possible, and for as long as you wish them to be, they'll be here for your daily dose of movie discussions. We have already seen more than 500 members register within the first week alone, far more than we could have ever hoped.

In the light of our first week as a live community, we are still moving forward...

On November 3, in my column announcing the new forums, I also mentioned that we were exploring the possibility of reviving the Box Office Derby game made popular, and now completely shut down, by Box Office Mojo.

While details are still evolving behind the scenes, I want to personally and officially let you know that it wasn't just talk: we are moving forward with plans to launch our own version of the Derby!

We are still in the preliminary stages of development and are not seeking to rush things. By that same token, it is our hope that the game will launch sometime in the first quarter of 2012 (most likely in February or March).

Here is where we need your help!

The staff and I once again call upon all of you to become a part of the development process. While the forums are completely funded for the time being, your continued donations will help us support the development of this new BOT Derby game (hereby referred to as the "non-derby derby").

The challenging news: we estimate it will take -- at a minimum -- $900-1,000 to have a realistic shot at making this happen. The good news: thanks to your support over the last few weeks, we already have a chunk of that in reserve for site use (approximately $300).

If you would like to make a first-time donation (or would like to donate again) toward the funding of creating our "non-derby derby" game, I encourage you to please send me (ShawnMR) a private message on our forums and let me know what you can do. As was similarly promised to our first wave of donors, anyone who contributes $20 or more toward the funding of this game will receive no less than one year of ad-free viewing (once advertisements go live on the site in the near future).

Additionally, if you can't donate at this time, we still welcome your involvement by way of offering suggestions (big or small) for how we can make the game better and more user-friendly than it already was at Box Office Mojo. Even if your suggestion is "Keep it the EXACT same!", we want to hear it straight from you.

Again, while we are officially pursuing re-creating the game, it will ultimately come down to how soon we can fully fund it and fully dive into the heart of the development process.

This is a community for you and all of the movie fans out there who have yet to discover Box Office Theory. Given our past ties to Box Office Mojo, it feels only natural that we should carry the torch of this beloved predicting game developed by Brandon Gray and Sean Saulsbury over a decade ago when they founded our former home.

If you can contribute financially, it would be a tremendous help. If you can help via suggestions for the game itself, we welcome those equally as much. We want this to be your game, not just Box Office Theory's game.

Thank you for reading, and if you have any further questions, please feel free to e-mail me or (preferably) send me a private message on our forums.

With great sincerity and appreciation,

ShawnMR
Editor / Administrator
BoxOfficeTheory.com
shawnmr@boxofficetheory.com

As Predicted: Andy Serkis Confirms (?) a 'HOBBIT' Teaser By Christmas

2011-11-15T11:09:00.010-06:00

(Join The Hobbit discussion on our new message board!)

I've spoken about it a few times in the past, predicting that Warner Bros. would once again follow their established marketing precedents and release a teaser for The Hobbit sometime this Christmas -- probably with The Adventures of Tintin, though possibly with Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows. The latter is a fellow Warner Bros. production while the former is produced by director Peter Jackson himself. (More reasoning on that in a moment.)

Now, Andy Serkis (Gollum / 2nd Unit Director of The Hobbit) seems to confirm that a Christmas teaser trailer release will indeed be the case.

This would fall in line with the studio's strategy back in 2000 when a short teaser for all three Lord of the Rings films debuted in theaters one year in advance of the first film, The Fellowship of the Ring.

While we await official confirmation from the studio, its a good bet that Serkis knows what he's talking about.

Worth noting here is that WB has another major 2012 tent pole release that I'm betting we'll see a full trailer for around the same time: The Dark Knight Rises. Its more likely, I feel, that that trailer becomes attached to Holmes given the closer genres and studio relationship. Not to mention, WB doesn't want either of these films stealing attention from the other. While Hobbit could still be attached to Holmes, Tintin is just as good of a bet thanks to the Jackson, 3D, and IMAX connections. They could additionally opt to debut it with Tintin on December 21st, followed by sending out prints with it attached to Holmes after that date.

Sources: IGN, via ComingSoon.net

CALLING ALL PROGRAMMERS! Are you experienced in coding (PHP, mySQL, etc.) or web integration?

2011-11-13T15:07:00.000-06:00

For the past few weeks, I've gotten a lot of inquiries about reviving a certain game from Box Office Mojo that is, like their forums, now defunct. And for the past few weeks, I've been giving it more thought.

This is still an unofficial decision as I weigh a varying number of factors at play here. However, you (the readers and forum members) have already supported this site and our new forums so incredibly, and further supported the idea of a "Derby" (or a non-derby derby, as I like to call it), that I would be remiss if I didn't at least explore the potential of it.

If you have any experience in coding or programming and would like to help us explore this opportunity, please feel free to drop me an e-mail at lifeattwentyfour@gmail.com. Let me know what you specifically have experience in and what you think you can contribute to this would-be project.

In the mean time, please remember, this is only to explore the possibility. I don't want to promise something that might not end up coming to fruition or simply doesn't jive with the vision of Box Office Theory. But if you can help in any way, I welcome hearing from you. (That includes ideas for variations on the game from how Mojo ran it!)

I'll update more on the status of things within the next few days...

Box Office Preview: Adam Sandler, 'IMMORTALS', and the DiCaprio/Eastwood 'J. EDGAR' Won't Fend Off 'PUSS IN BOOTS'

2011-11-11T11:07:00.015-06:00

1. Puss In Boots - $24.4 million (-26.2%)
2. Immortals - $21.0 million (NEW)
3. Jack and Jill - $16 million (NEW)
4. J. Edgar - $14.3 million (NEW)
5. Tower Heist - $12.8 million (-46.7%)
6. A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas - $5.0 million (-61.4%)

I'm in a bit of a crunch following a week's work setting up our new message boards, so I'm only forecasting the top five this weekend but will return to a deeper analysis next week when a certain highly-anticipated movie debuts.

Last week's near-flat hold displayed by Puss In Boots surprised most people in the industry. Word of mouth was obviously strong beforehand, but its clear that the film has piqued the interest of audiences in a way that on film in the franchise has done since the first two Shrek films in 2001 and 2004.

While domestic totals of those two films are out of reach for Puss, it nevertheless should continue to enjoy an incredibly strong run after a modest start two weekends ago. Veteran's Day will mostly result in a Friday equal to or higher than the Friday prior, however, that will still mute Saturday increases in my opinion. In the end though, Puss should lead the weekend yet again and cross the $100 million threshold on Sunday, just its 17th day in release.

Immortals, the latest R-rated take on stylized myth-based films, debuts this weekend following months of a solid marketing campaign but no specific selling point. While hoping to capitalize on the success of films like 2012, which opened around this time of year, the film's rating and severe lack of star power should hold it back to an opening somewhere between $18-24 million, I feel.

Given the recent slump at the box office, however, it wouldn't shock me to see it go lower. This has been one of the harder films to gauge interest in, but it leads the weekend's new releases on Flixster with 80% and 17,000+ votes... as well as on Fandango with 6% of all sales through Thursday, second only to Breaking Dawn's massive 69% pre-sales accumulation.

The latest Adam Sandler comedy, Jack and Jill, has fallen completely flat in its marketing campaign and seems to be failing to generate much interest even among his dedicated fans. With less than 8,000 Flixster votes (and 70% "want to see" score), this is clearly following in the path that I've thought it would for months now: Little Nicky Redux. Back in 2000, Sandler debuted an equally-unappealing comedic turn which resulted in a $16 million opening. Keep in mind this was back when Sandler was at his peak (just two years after The Waterboy broke records for the genre) and it still remains one of the worst openings of his career.

Given the recent box office slump, and Sandler's own slowly-declining opening weekend trajectory (even Just Go With It barely topped $30 million earlier this year), I suspect we could actually see Jack and Jill not only fail to sell as many as tickets as Nicky did, but struggle to top its unadjusted opening gross. Sandler's schtick seems to have lost some of its appeal over the years and this film will test to see how many people are truly at the core of his dedicated fan base. The factor to its advantage, however, could be the fact that Veteran's Day might bring out some of the older Sandler fans on Friday. Were it not for that holiday boost, I would be predicting closer to $14-15 million for the weekend.

Last up is the Leonardo DiCaprio vehicle, J. Edgar, also directed by Clint Eastwood. DiCaprio has continue to elevate the status of star power over the last few years with films like Inception and Shutter Island (both of which broke his personal opening weekend records at the time of their release) so that alone could help this film draw more mainstream appeal than Eastwood's flicks have usually seen. For example, Invictus opened to $8.6 million this time two years ago. Morgan Freeman and Matt Damon arguably hold less drawing power on their own (and in that type of film) than Leo does on his own recently, but that's not a proven trend either.

Ultimately, the best comparisons will probably be Body of Lies (the R-rated DiCaprio-Russell Crowe thriller from October 2008) and Hereafter (the Damon-starring 2010 Eastwood film). They opened to $12.9 million and $12 million, respectively. Another interesting comparison could be Changeling, which pulled $9.4 million back in 2008. Ultimately, however, I'm putting a bit of stock in DiCaprio's pull right now and the fact that the film is based on a very well-known historical figure. Not to mention that Eastwood has his own dedicated following as a filmmaker. I'm projecting an opening weekend north of $14 million for the bio-pic.

That wraps up things for this week, please continue checking back for several new columns that I'll have up soon. Next week: fans will unleash for the penultimate Twilight Saga installment, Breaking Dawn: Part I. I'll have a full analysis and look back at the franchise's history so far...

Forum Update: Host Is Down (Updated)

2011-11-10T00:29:00.003-06:00

Update: Looks like its back up now.

For any forum posters out there, our web host is experiencing server problems. I've read reports of at least a couple other sites with the same host being down right now as well. So, that good news is that its not the forum itself that has crashed. The not-so-good news is that I'm still waiting to get in touch with the web host tech support.

I'll keep you updated as I can, but there may not be much I can do on my end if this is with the host's end so we may just have to ride it out overnight and see if the issue is resolved by tomorrow (today) morning.

Sorry for the inconvenience, folks...here's hoping that this is just a fluke.

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT: The Box Office Theory Forums are now LIVE!

2011-11-08T12:20:00.000-06:00

After popular demand and a growing number of requests, I'm excited to announce that the Box Office Theory Community Forums are officially LIVE!

I want to send a HUGE thank you to everyone who supported this move and those who helped make it possible. After BoxOfficeMojo.com's forums were permanently shut down last week, a huge community of dedicated movie fans and long-time online friends were displaced by a decision and action that many are still trying to understand.

But none of that matters anymore. This is the beginning of a new era, both for the former Mojo forum members and Box Office Theory itself. (And, stay tuned in the coming weeks as I may have additional exciting news regarding a new feature to the site...)

I would like to personally invite everyone to sign up and join this community as we help it grow into something more than just a box office-centric message board. Rather, it is my aim and the goal of our members to make it a friendly and welcoming place for all movie fans, whether you posted at Box Office Mojo or not. This is truly a clean slate, a fresh community where everyone is on the same playing field.

Once there, you'll find a wide variety of topics on which you can join the discussion. Not only do we have our board dedicated to box office discussion in "Box Office Theorists", we also encourage everyone to spend time discussing real life events in "The Real World" forum, or film industry news in "On The Lot", or just talk about your favorite hobbies, actors, actresses, directors over in "The Speakeasy".

There's a place for virtually anything you'd like to talk about: movies, books, music, politics, video games, technology, and even a special board dedicated especially for movie-related games such as Create A Year Of Movies, Box Office Survivor, and Baumer's Summer Game.

Please note that we are still in the phase of hammering out the kinks, in particular with the forum's visual skin and appearance, but this should not cause any disruption in your community experience. I recommend giving the announcements (pinned to the top of every forum page) a thorough read just so you're up to speed on the news and general guidelines of the community.

Again, I sincerely thank all of you who donated toward the funding of the new message board. Your generosity will not be forgotten! Both I and the forum staff will do everything in our power to ensure that everyone has the optimal posting experience when visiting the Box Office Theory Forums.

And of course, while I will be around the forums and administrating daily activities, my focus will still remain on writing and developing content for the main Box Office Theory site. You may see a large overhaul within the few months, and in the mean time I will continue striving to offer quality news and analysis related to the film industry.

Worth noting that the message board at the free ProBoards site that I linked to last week will remain partially open for a few more days to allow a transition period, but after that it will be completely closed off to any new posts (but saved for any future need).

Now, I invite you to join the discussion! Registration is quick and easy, and once you're ready to go you'll find a whole host of special features awaiting you, not the least of which is a special "Friend List" function that will allow you to easily keep in touch with anyone you enjoy speaking with or simply reading the comments of. A great way to get started is to visit "The Real World" forum and introduce yourself in the topic called "Introduce Yourself: Welcome to BOT Forums!", found here.

Once again, thank you all for your support! We'll see you on the forums (and in the comments section here!)

Sincerely,

ShawnMR

Editor / Administrator

BoxOfficeTheory.com

Box Office Preview: 'TOWER HEIST' and 'HAROLD & KUMAR CHRISTMAS' Kick Off November and the Holiday Moviegoing Season

2011-11-04T10:48:00.001-05:00

1. Tower Heist - $25.0 million (NEW)
2. Puss in Boots - $23.0 million (-32.5%)
3. A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas - $18.4 million (NEW)
4. Paranormal Activity 3 - $7.8 million (-57%)
5. In Time - $6.8 million (-43.6%)
6. Footloose - $3.1 million (-43.7%)
7. Real Steel - $3.0 million (-38.3%)
8. The Rum Diary - $2.4 million (-53.3%)

The latest comedy from Ben Stiller, Eddie Murphy, and director Brett Ratner leads the charge this weekend as the first frame of November officially kicks off the holiday movie season. (My apologies for not getting my Preview up yet, a number of circumstances this week have delayed that just a little bit.)

Meanwhile, the third installment of the Harold & Kumar series will try to make a dent and take advantage of its newfound 3D prices.
Tower Heist should be a familiar return to the genre styles of Brett Ratner's Rush Hour films and having two headlines in the form of Stiller and Murphy should add to the casual appeal of the film. While Murphy's star has been on the decline over the last decade, this is the kind of role older audiences may remember him for (and early buzz has been that he steals the show in the film). Meanwhile, Stiller has considerable pull among *all* ages of audiences, especially in this type of comedy-related feature.

What could be most prevalent, however, is the timeliness of the subject matter. Tower Heist is essentially about a group of guys out to get some well-deserved revenge after falling victim to rich boss's Ponzi scheme. They do this by robbing one of his high-rise towers...something that I'm sure quite a few of the "Occupy" movement supporters will no doubt relate to.

It might be a bit of a stretch, but initially I was getting the feeling that this might be headed for a disappointing opening weekend. A close comparison should be last year's Unstoppable, which banked $22.7 million in its opening early in November on the star power of Denzel Washington. For other comedic comparisons, I'm looking to films like Stiller's Little Fockers ($30.8 million) and older examples such as Tropic Thunder, Starsky & Hutch and Along Came Polly -- all of which opened within the $25-30 million range.

Meanwhile, A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas should fare decently in its opening. The first sequel opened in April 2008 to the tune of almost $15 million. With 3D prices and inflation added in, that would translate to between $18-19 million today. While the sequel wasn't particularly well-received by fans, the marketing campaign has been stepped up considerably and the time between films may have helped alleviate any negative perception of any more sequels among the target audience. Tying into the Christmas holidays could be an advantage as well.

Flixster data for both films is a bit surprising with Heist only pulling in ~7,500 votes as of Thursday (but an 87% positive score) and Harold & Kumar with ~12,700 and an 82% positive score. Fandango also yields positive signs for the two films with Heist second only to Breaking Dawn's pre-sales and Harold & Kumar also showing up in the top five.

Lastly, some films may experience slightly stronger holds than usual in a recovery from the effects of Game 7 of the World Series and the northeastern snowstorm last weekend. Puss in Boots, in fact, could potentially compete for first place again if Tower Heist does manage to disappoint (similar to how Unstoppable fell short of expectations last year despite its leading man appeal).

ANNOUNCEMENT: Box Office Theory Message Boards Are Coming!

2011-11-03T12:14:00.001-05:00

Due to overwhelming response at the temporary/back-up forum for those displaced by Box Office Mojo's now-defunct message board, I've decided to implement a discussion forum here at Box Office Theory.

We are still in the preliminary stage of getting things moving so I can't give a specific time of launch yet, but it will be as soon as possible.

Also, I've received several inquiries about possibly reviving the Box Office Derby game made popular by Box Office Mojo. That game is also now defunct, and while I'm far from deciding to bring it back here for a number of reasons, its been put on the table.

Ultimately, however, my focus will remain on writing content for this main page. I'm happy to offer a new message board to those interested, including the "Mojo Refugees", and will be appointing several moderators and administrators to maintain them in the best way possible.

If you are able and willing to donate toward the costs of hosting a new forum here, please e-mail me at lifeattwentyfour@gmail.com. We are currently about $90 short of the minimum target goal, and $170 short of the ideal target goal. PayPal strongly preferred, but will consider other options!

More details to come.

Crikey, We've Lost Our Box Office Mojo!

2011-11-02T19:30:00.000-05:00

...But its not the end. (Stay tuned after this post.)

For those displaced by Amazon/IMDb's decision to (unexpectedly) shut down the message boards (among other popular features) at Box Office Mojo, there is a home for you. Moreover, there is a temporary home at MojoRefugees.proboards.com. This is a temporary site for forum members that I launched earlier this year just as a back-up for when Mojo's forums were down for maintenance or any other reason.

Little did I know that it would turn into the haven for Mojo's forum members after one of the most despicable displays of customer service I've ever seen from a website. While the post up on their site right now would have us believe that this was a "transition" they had been planning, to call it "a little bumpier than expected" is just downright insulting to those of us who have frequented the website for years...some of us even calling it our online home.

Sure, they are now offering their Premier Pass features to everyone for free. For anyone not a member of the forum or player of the Derby, I'm sure that will more than make up for the technical issues on the site over the past week. But for those of us who have been loyal to the message boards and dedicated a fair amount of work toward maintaining and organizing them, with all due respect: this is inexcusable.

I can't begin to count how many threads and posts are now lost. How many film reviews are erased from existence? How many archives are now totally wiped out? How many hours of personal work and hobby-driven passion have been utterly dismissed on a whim? A lot of people put a lot of heart into those message boards, but not a single one of us was given the chance or forewarning to even be able to back up that data before this supposed "transition".

There is, of course, the possibility that the transition wasn't really planned; that the site really was hacked, data compromised, and now its being covered up. I hate to speculate, but I hate even more that Mojo's owners have put me in that position of having to speculate. Frankly, I'd rather know some data was compromised because of a loser in his basement hacking into the site as opposed to a parent company being that inconsiderate of its users.

Yes, we are hobbyists. Yes, it was a free aspect of the site. But does that mean Amazon and IMDb had the right to treat its users with such disregard?

I have the utmost respect for the people at (and formerly with) Mojo. Ray Subers, Brandon Gray, Tom Karlo, Sean Saulsbury...all guys who made that site run, and all of whom I have to thank for the opportunity to be a moderator there for the last two years -- and active member for a decade -- and who did an incredible job running the website all these years.

I will always remember the community we developed at Box Office Mojo and how many online friends from far away places I've made because of that site. I personally stumbled upon it over a decade ago, back when films like Titanic and The Phantom Menace turned my interest in box office numbers into a full-on passion. I started playing the Derby there in 2002, and for the first time ever was on track to actually play every single game during 2011. A weekly tradition, and years of experiences, totally eviscerated.

And, admittedly, I'll still go there. Mojo is still the unchallenged king of box office statistics-driven websites, and it is my hope that Amazon/IMDb will at the very least continue to strengthen that aspect of the website.

Ultimately, all good things must come to an end.

...But this isn't the end!

The Mojo community will endure. It will live on, just as past broken forums have moved on and established themselves...

MojoRefugees.proboards.com

Official: Box Office Mojo Forums Are No More

2011-11-02T18:30:00.003-05:00

All good things really do come to an end:

Source: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/premierpass.htm

We're excited to announce that Premier Pass content is available to all visitors of Box Office Mojo, so you will no longer need to log in to your Premier Pass account to view it. We will be providing a refund for the remainder of your Premier Pass membership period.

As part of these changes, the following features will no longer be available on Box Office Mojo: custom box-office reports, Box Office Derby, Hangman and Movies Grading. We are also retiring our email updates and forums. We encourage you to visit the message boards at IMDb and join the discussions there.

This transition was a bit bumpier than we expected, and we apologize for the temporary inconvenience. We will be updating this page shortly with information on how to get your refund for the entire outstanding balance of your account as of October 27th.

More to come...