tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12542705Thu, 12 Sep 2024 23:35:35 +0000GOOGAAPLFedGLDSNDKoilAKAMBXCFCGoldHANSHousingLVSMUNFLXQIDQLDSDSSKFYenBBIBRLCDXDDollarHOKUSMHYHOOcarry tradeADBEAMZNBIDUBLUDBSCCATDDMDNAETFCFDXFOMCGSHDJADEMPELMSMZZNYXORCLOXPSPPIRIMMSBUXSLVSRSSSOTZOOUNGWYNNequitiesmarketstocks10 yr T-Bond10 yr bondAAAEAAMGNAMTDAXPBACBBYBCSIBHPBWLDBernankeBlackberryBlackstoneBuffettCCDOCELGCMGCOHCPICSHCommoditiesConstructionDBADEDELLDFSDUGDowEBAYEZPWEuroFFCFSFCXFXEGMHPHPQHome DepotHousing startsICSC-UBSINTCISMJBLUKRRKRYKronaLENDMAMCDMGMMLMOTMOVIMS GSMSFTMTGMortgageNEWCNKENMXNTRINTRYNardelliNasdaqOVTIPALMPNRAPhilly FedRACKRDNRSRTHRVBDSP500STPSubprimeTTIETIFTMTXUTreoUS DollarUSDVCLKVDSIWFMIWMTbearsbullsearningseconomic datafadefinancegreenspanhedge fundspaulsonretail salesshortManaging Money in the Capital Marketshttp://capitalgame.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.com (TheCapitalGame)Blogger391125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12542705.post-2776127950211166393Tue, 22 Jan 2008 13:35:00 +00002008-01-22T05:44:33.687-08:00Today is going to be one hell of a day in the equity markets. Dow futures are showing an open of down 500 points. The way things are shaping up I expect the circuit breakers to be deployed especially as the Dow flirts with minus 1000. This will be the biggest market crash since 1987.The Fed has stepped in and cut rates by 75 basis points . A Fed cut at this stage is like treating cancer with http://capitalgame.blogspot.com/2008/01/armageddon.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TheCapitalGame)180tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12542705.post-8674942168180446811Fri, 18 Jan 2008 13:28:00 +00002008-01-18T05:54:14.068-08:00The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an index composed of 30 stocks. IBM XOM BA MO MMM UTX PG JNJ CAT KO make up just under 50% of the index. These 10 stocks lead the Dow up or down. If these stocks start gaining strength, it is almost a certainty that the Dow will too and vice versa. Keep an eye on the movement of these stocks and you can time the Dow intraday. Today for instance, IBM is up http://capitalgame.blogspot.com/2008/01/how-to-predict-market.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TheCapitalGame)6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12542705.post-5276517226554822474Wed, 16 Jan 2008 14:21:00 +00002008-01-16T06:28:48.402-08:00The futures are starting to climb here this morning. The Asian market were killed though Europe is recovering and it appears many indices will finish in the green. After being murdered in after hour trading, it appears INTC is recovering here after a Morgan Stanley upgrade this AM. Would not surprise me if we rally all day after a lower open. Also keep an eye on the Yen which needs to weaken in http://capitalgame.blogspot.com/2008/01/possible-market-bottom.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TheCapitalGame)2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12542705.post-1321331664517728390Tue, 15 Jan 2008 23:42:00 +00002008-01-15T15:50:38.257-08:00INTCThis aptly titled movie could be referring to the stock market itself. There will be Blood. How true. In after hours Intel INTC is being disembowled after reporting soft earnings and weak guidance. Futures are down by alot and tomorrow is likely to see an open a few hundred Dow points down. Option expiration is on Friday and I do suspect we could get some upside after some panic selling to start http://capitalgame.blogspot.com/2008/01/there-will-be-blood-in-market.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TheCapitalGame)43tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12542705.post-6389733982390199805Mon, 14 Jan 2008 22:17:00 +00002008-01-14T14:49:05.612-08:00DBAGLDQLDSKFSRSA welcome rally for bulls and in some cases bears as it allows them to reload short positions. In any case I feel this rally may be very short lived considering the economic data releases on the horizon . Producer Price Index and retail sales tomorrow along with the New York manufacturing report. Consumer Price Index and and Industrial Production reports on Wednesday with Housing Starts and the http://capitalgame.blogspot.com/2008/01/welcome-rally.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TheCapitalGame)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12542705.post-8134403753343045666Sat, 12 Jan 2008 00:16:00 +00002008-01-11T16:26:55.534-08:00Watching Kudlow and Company here. You really have to wonder what Larry Kudlow and some of his guests are smoking. I thought I heard someone say how great they thought financials would do the rest of the year. This Don Luskin fellow thinks the stock market does well during recessions. Wow ! He's obviously on Ecstacy - the club drug. Larry Kudlow is dressed like a clown and everytime his mouth http://capitalgame.blogspot.com/2008/01/what-does-kudlow-smoke.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TheCapitalGame)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12542705.post-9112838990397628895Thu, 10 Jan 2008 19:40:00 +00002008-01-10T11:42:47.750-08:00Or any other tanned Italian men in general. Looks like Countrwide may be saved via rumors of a takeover by Bank of America. If this is the case, than look for a strong market rally especially in the financials. A short term bottom appears to be in place. BAC injected $2 billion in Countrywide back in mid August which also market a market bottom. I expect the markets to continue their downtrend inhttp://capitalgame.blogspot.com/2008/01/dont-bet-against-angelo.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TheCapitalGame)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12542705.post-7119646772100159248Thu, 10 Jan 2008 19:04:00 +00002008-01-10T11:12:32.054-08:00Judging by the market reaction following the Bernanke speech this afternoon, he didn't bring hope to the bulls. The indices jumped in anticipation with the Dow in triple digits. Those gains evaporated soon after. What is Ben supposed to say or do ? Staving of a recession at this point is a highly unlikely scenario. Cutting rates further will only be inflationary. It won't save the markets or the http://capitalgame.blogspot.com/2008/01/ben-fails-to-impress.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TheCapitalGame)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12542705.post-3646486369546663103Wed, 09 Jan 2008 17:26:00 +00002008-01-09T09:27:44.155-08:00I'm expecting news of an emergency rate cut sometime soon maybe even today. If the market continues this downslide there will be some sort of intervention. We had a rally going this morning but things started falling apart. We are up barely.http://capitalgame.blogspot.com/2008/01/emergency-rate-cut-coming.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TheCapitalGame)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12542705.post-9029575788144485021Wed, 09 Jan 2008 14:25:00 +00002008-01-09T06:33:34.938-08:00After having officially broken all types of support - The Dow at around 12700, the S&P at 1400 and the Nasdaq at around 2540 it looks like we are officially in a bear market. Can't argue the facts. Slower growth ahead and a recession on the horizon though by my count we are already in one. Despite the bearish picture on the horizon I am looking for some type of bounce and even a sustainable http://capitalgame.blogspot.com/2008/01/we-are-in-bear-market.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TheCapitalGame)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12542705.post-5528717857035185434Tue, 08 Jan 2008 13:10:00 +00002008-01-08T05:35:52.586-08:00After a 7 day losing streak in the Nasdaq in which we've lost over 200 points I expect a sharp bounce either today or tomorrow. There is a gap that needs to be filled at the 2600 level which is a 100 points higher and we may just get there. Its times like this when people are about ready to throw in the towel that sharp rallied occur. And we are extremely oversold on an intermediate term basis. http://capitalgame.blogspot.com/2008/01/nasdaq-7-day-losing-streak.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TheCapitalGame)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12542705.post-89426492632802617Fri, 04 Jan 2008 18:35:00 +00002008-01-04T10:46:05.819-08:00Many financial commentators over the last few months have pointed out low unemployment/full employment as a sign that the economy is strong . Nonsense ! When unemployment is at its lowest, it only has one way to go and thats up. Today was evidence of this via date showing the highest unemployment/ jobless rate in 2 years. Be bearish when unemployment is at its lowest and bullish when its at its http://capitalgame.blogspot.com/2008/01/be-very-bearish-when-unemployment-is-at.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TheCapitalGame)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12542705.post-8716208040795941713Wed, 02 Jan 2008 17:31:00 +00002008-01-02T09:42:06.699-08:00I am selling a little of my ultra short positions here. Taking a little profit on QID SRS FXP SKF.The Chief Marketing Officer at NTRI recently spent $2 million of his own money to buy stock. That says a lot. NTRI is a strong buy under $30.Now that we've hit $100 oil I think we turn back. I think oil will trade as low as $70 this year especially on the back of a slowing global economy.The drop in http://capitalgame.blogspot.com/2008/01/nothing-wrong-with-recession.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TheCapitalGame)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12542705.post-4584418739179728536Wed, 02 Jan 2008 14:21:00 +00002008-01-02T06:51:22.423-08:00HAPPY NEW YEAR ! Prosit Neujahr ! Bonne Annee ! Kenourios Chronos ! Feliz Ano ~Nuevo ! S Novim Godom ! Antum salimoun ! Xin Nian Kuai Le ! Naye Varsha Ki Shubhkamanyen !After an extended break I am ready for 2008 . Looking ahead some of the key themes that Isee are as followsStrengthening of the Yen and hence a weakening of the global stock market via unwinding of the Carry Trade ( borrowing http://capitalgame.blogspot.com/2008/01/trading-for-2008.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TheCapitalGame)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12542705.post-3024551614786139382Mon, 17 Dec 2007 15:11:00 +00002007-12-17T07:19:11.122-08:00The 13200 number appears to be an important level for the Dow. Its around the early December lows. A close below 13200 could see a pullback to test the November lows.The S&P 500 is currently below is support level of 1460 and is signalling a retest of 1400 is in order.The Nasdaq appears to be ready to fill its gap around 2580 or so.The markets are weak this morning despite the Fed credit http://capitalgame.blogspot.com/2007/12/important-levels-on-indices.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TheCapitalGame)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12542705.post-1211661382243526495Fri, 14 Dec 2007 17:34:00 +00002007-12-14T09:39:41.667-08:00Will we get a strong close like yesterday or will we sell off ? The market opened weak and attempted a rally and currently it is retesting the lows. A successful test may mean a rally into the close. From a bullish perspective a strong close is good. But I am currently leaning more towards the bearish side and I wonder what happends if we don't get a strong close. The wheels could fall of the http://capitalgame.blogspot.com/2007/12/market-update.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TheCapitalGame)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12542705.post-1930945934916914500Thu, 13 Dec 2007 21:29:00 +00002007-12-13T13:43:07.602-08:00Or perhaps don't bet on the bear. Either the bulls have remarkable resilience or the bears lack the ability to take control of the market. To be fair, the bulls have Bernanke on their side in the form of liquidity injections - don't think I didn't see that liquidity injection today Ben ! As I mentioned in my earlier post, I expected a late day rally if the bears were unable to force the issue. http://capitalgame.blogspot.com/2007/12/dont-bet-against-bull.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TheCapitalGame)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12542705.post-2679474973586202148Thu, 13 Dec 2007 15:44:00 +00002007-12-13T07:56:33.040-08:00The market has opened weak today though the bears have not really taken full control with the bulls still hanging around. If this continues, I think the bulls could come back strong in the final two hours of trading.A few numbers to look at. 14198 13962 13780 . These are three intermediate tops set on the Dow between early October and now with the latest figure occuring on Tuesday. The lows have http://capitalgame.blogspot.com/2007/12/looking-at-numbers.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TheCapitalGame)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12542705.post-1460048178754109464Wed, 12 Dec 2007 17:49:00 +00002007-12-12T10:00:53.933-08:00The rally today has been extremely fadeable. I stared in shock as I witnessed the Dow up over 200 with the Nasdaq and S&P up over 50 and 30 respectively. All this because of the news that the The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and three other central banks are moving in concert to alleviate a credit squeeze by pumping liquidity into the credit markets via auctions. This move is just http://capitalgame.blogspot.com/2007/12/fade-rally.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TheCapitalGame)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12542705.post-3846239564272537629Tue, 11 Dec 2007 21:21:00 +00002007-12-11T13:32:45.242-08:00Not quite the middle finger - an unchanged rate would have been the equivalent but close enough. A half point interest rate cut expectation by Wall Street was not on the cards as the Fed choose to cut rates by a quarter sending the stock market substantially lower though based on the volatility over the last few months , a 295 point drop in the Dow with 66 points on the Nasdaq and 38 on the S&amphttp://capitalgame.blogspot.com/2007/12/fed-gives-bulls-middle-finger.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TheCapitalGame)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12542705.post-1927917654871325973Mon, 10 Dec 2007 14:17:00 +00002007-12-10T06:31:19.576-08:00The mortgage mess is just starting . Subprime was just the tip of the iceberg. This article by a mortgage insider courtesy of Herb Greenberg is worth reading. The real blow up is going to occur in the Neg Am Pay Option ARM arena where essentially people with incomes as low as $80,000 were qualifying for million dollar loans. Most of these people have good credit but unfortunately no conventional http://capitalgame.blogspot.com/2007/12/is-suprime-just-tip-of-iceberg.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TheCapitalGame)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12542705.post-6530305049170745172Tue, 04 Dec 2007 21:24:00 +00002007-12-04T13:40:05.654-08:00The highlight of the trading day for me was reading the following Abby Joseph Cohen, the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategistwhose call for a year-end rally in U.S. stocks hasn't come true, predicted theStandard & Poor's 500 Index will rise 14 percent by the end of nextyear. Cohen, 55, says the S&P 500 will climb to a record 1,675 .. BloombergKeep in mind Cohen is the crazy old lady who http://capitalgame.blogspot.com/2007/12/goldmans-analyst-high.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TheCapitalGame)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12542705.post-4815482569074604311Mon, 03 Dec 2007 13:09:00 +00002007-12-03T05:28:00.730-08:00Keep an eye on the Japanese Yen as it continues to get stronger this morning. US equities have a strong inverse correlation to the Yen and the carry trade continues to unwind with a stronger Yen.The ISM Manufacturing Index is the major economic report out today. Keep an eye on this one as it has a strong ability to move the market.A recession is already here for corporate profits not to mention http://capitalgame.blogspot.com/2007/12/watch-yen.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TheCapitalGame)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12542705.post-4869541939315678790Fri, 30 Nov 2007 16:45:00 +00002007-11-30T08:50:41.453-08:00Thank you Mr. Bernanke for giving the bulls hope for another interest rate cut despite the first two interest rate cuts having no positive effect on the stock market. If the bulls are foolish enough to believe that a third interest rate cut will be good for stocks then let them. This gap up open is a great opportunity to add to QID and FXP positions and perhaps some SDS DXD TWM SRS. If the markethttp://capitalgame.blogspot.com/2007/11/thank-you-mr-bernanke.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TheCapitalGame)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12542705.post-6552102916738860155Thu, 29 Nov 2007 18:30:00 +00002007-11-29T10:43:16.676-08:00Having taken time off the past week to contemplate the market the action of the past few sessions appears to be the making of a dead cat bounce. I didn't see anything on Monday or Tuesday which suggested a market bottom. A large stake in Citibank C by Abu Dhabi and a speech by Fed Governor Kohn suggesting further rate cuts appear to be the impetus for the current market surge. I don't know how http://capitalgame.blogspot.com/2007/11/suckers-rally.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (TheCapitalGame)0