Written by Dan Hamilton | December 16, 2025

The Fed’s Policies Regarding Inflation

U.S. inflation averaged 2.2 percent from January 2000 through December 2019. From January 2021 to now (for nearly five years) it has averaged 4.6 percent. This is more than double the Federal Reserves stated inflation target. In June 2022, inflation as measured by the CPI hit 9.1 percent. The Wall Street Journal described the policies which led to this inflation as the “greatest monetary policy mistake since the 1970s.” CERF agrees.

In the Fall of 2024, media reporting suggested that the J. Powell Fed had achieved a “soft-landing”. An economic soft landing is where the Fed utilizes their policy instruments to slow the growth of the money supply, which brings inflation down to its two percent target from a rate that was higher than two percent for a sustained period of time. Critically, a soft landing is when the Fed accomplishes this without inducing a recession. CERF responded with a November 7, 2024 article explaining why the Fed had not achieved a soft landing and still today, has not.

There may have been an unfortunate consequence of the media declaring a soft-landing in 2024, which was to embolden an already mis-directed Fed to continue making policy mistakes. The Fed reduced its short-term interest rate target from August 2024’s 5.25 percent level, in a sequence of cuts, to 4.25 percent in December 2024. One hundred basis points is a large move. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation averaged three percent during September to December of 2024 (50 percent above target) and was rising during this time. The Fed abandoned its job of fighting inflation in the fourth quarter of 2024.

In 2025, the Fed’s preferred measure, the core measure of the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index, rose from 2.6 percent in April to 2.9 percent in August. Using these year-on-year figures, inflation has been rising every month for 4 months. This pattern is repeated across all four traditional measures of inflation, which include the PCE and CPI for each of all-items and core measures. Despite this, the Fed cut rates in its September, October, and December policy meetings. This is yet another Fed failure and it signals the Fed has no intention of fighting inflation.

The Fed’s policy stance involves an ongoing increase in the money supply. The October 2023 level of the money supply was 35 percent higher than it was at the beginning of 2020. From October 2023 until now the money supply has risen every month and is yet another 8.5 percent higher as a result. The Fed is cutting rates in a situation where both inflation and money supply are rising.

CERF is a member of the WSJ Economic Forecast Survey, a prestigious roster of more than 70 economic forecasting houses. The WSJ has repeatedly asked its survey members to provide a letter grade for the performance of the current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. CERF’s “grade” of Chair Powell is an F. The Fed’s policies are unsuccessful in the control of inflation. While the entire board of governors shares responsibility, there is a greater weight of this grade on the Fed Chair himself, given the power of that position.

The Fed’s Mandate

The Fed is working under a dual mandate, to achieve stable prices and maximum employment.

Inflation is calculated via hundreds of consumption categories, including groceries, transportation, shelter, and apparel. Many such items are necessities which comprise a higher percentage of a lower-income household’s budget than a higher-income household’s. While a wealthy household might experience sticker-shock from the inflation we have experienced since 2020 (the cumulative impact is 26 percent), they will easily pay the price. This is not the case for low- and middle-income households, where, simply put, fewer purchases must be made.

According to recently released Census Bureau data 2024 inflation-adjusted median household income is essentially unchanged since 2019. To illustrate this impact, using 2012 to 2019 average growth, we would expect 2024 median income to have been $97,000. The actual result was $84,000, a difference of over 15 percent. These data imply that the Fed’s failure to battle inflation is harming the working class.  

The Fed should not have an employment mandate. The connection between the Fed’s overnight interest rate target and the labor market is, at best, distant and weak. While historic Macroeconomic thought adhered to a connection between inflation and unemployment, evidence indicates that a connection no longer exists, if it ever did. See Hoover Institution economist John Cochrane for an explanation. With this, mandating that the Fed stimulate the labor market is disingenuous. It does not have the tools to achieve this result. Given that the Fed is failing on its inflation mandate, and given that it is destined to fail in stimulating the labor market, CERF calls for a new single Fed mandate, which is to focus exclusively on price stability.

Readers should be clear-eyed. The evidence is strong that the Fed does not attempting to reign in inflation. The Fed has demonstrated in the past that it is captured by financial markets. Might it desire to reduce interest rates in order to boost the stock market? The Fed has also made statements of encouragement to ever-greater government spending. Might it want to facilitate greater fiscal outlays by keeping rates low? The Fed’s balance sheet policy is congruent with a Fed that is accommodating extraordinary government expenditures.

What Should We Do?

The Fed has become a liability to main street America. It is ill-equipped to manage the labor market and has serially violated its inflation mandate. The Fed is likely to continue conducting policy in a direction that will stimulate even greater inflation.

Representatives and senators in Washington DC should enact change at the Fed. The Fed should have a single mandate. They should focus on price stability.

Written October 21, 2025

Noticias Telemundo features research published by CERF and the Latino GDP Project.

A report from the Latino GDP Project highlights newly released and record-setting population and labor force data. For the first time in history, one of every five people living in the United States is Latino. In 2024, the Latino labor force grew 5.5 percent, the single strongest growth on record and 4.2 percentage points stronger than Non-Latino. And the Latino labor force participation rate sits at an all-time high of 69 percent. The Latino labor force participation premium, that is the difference between Latino and Non-Latino participation rates, hit a record of 6.2 percentage points in 2024.

“Time and time again, we find that hard work, self-sufficiency, optimism and perseverance are the characteristics that underly the strength and resilience of U.S. Latinos,” said Matthew Fienup, executive director of the Center for Economic Research & Forecasting at Cal Lutheran. “By supporting this population, we believe these same characteristics will continue to drive growth in the overall U.S. economy for years to come.”

The Latino GDP Project, an ambitious multi-disciplinary research initiative of Cal Lutheran and UCLA, provides careful, explicit, and timely documentation of the economic powerhouse represented by U.S. Latinos.

Watch the Telemundo feature HERE

Written October 8, 2025

Introduction

The April release of the 2025 U.S. Latino GDP Report revealed that the U.S. Latino GDP surged past $4 trillion for the first time. At $4.1 trillion, the 2023 U.S. Latino GDP is the world’s fifth largest GDP, larger than the entire economy of India. The U.S. Latino GDP is also the single fastest growing among major economies, growing faster than China’s GDP since 2019 (Hamilton et al, 2025).

Against that already impressive backdrop, we note newly released and record-setting population and labor force data. For the first time in history, one of every five people living in the United States is Latino. In 2024, the Latino labor force grew 5.5 percent, the single strongest growth on record and 4.2 percentage points stronger than Non-Latino. From 2010 to 2024, the Latino component of the U.S. labor force grew 7.2 times faster than the Non-Latino labor force. And the Latino labor force participation rate sits at an all-time high of 69 percent. The Latino labor force participation premium, that is, the difference between Latino and Non-Latino participation rates, hit a record in 2024 of 6.2 percentage points.

The Latino GDP Project, a multi-disciplinary initiative conducted by researchers at California Lutheran University and UCLA, provides careful, explicit, and timely documentation of the economic powerhouse represented by U.S. Latinos. Eight consecutive annual reports document the fact that Latinos living in the United States enjoy substantial economic premiums across a wide range of indicators, relative to Non-Latinos. Latino participation in the U.S. economy is more active and more intense than Non-Latino participation. Further, the vitality of the overall U.S. economy depends on the intensity of activity of U.S. Latinos.

Population

The Census Bureau’s new official population estimates by ethnicity indicate that the size and growth of the Latino cohort are even more auspicious than previously understood. The 2025 U.S. Latino GDP Report, released in April, documented that U.S. Latino population growth accelerated from 1.2 percent in 2020 to 1.8 percent in 2023. The revised estimates still show 1.2 percent in 2020, but 2023 growth is now estimated to be a much more rapid 2.7 percent. The previously estimated 2023 Latino population of 65.2 million has been revised upward to 66.1 million, or 923 thousand more Latinos than previously estimated. (See Table 1.)

The Census Bureau’s June data release also provides new, never-before released data for 2024. The Latino cohort is now, for the first time in history, one out of every five persons in the United States. The United States Latino population as of July 1, 2024 is estimated to be over 68 million, about 2 million persons greater than updated 2023 estimates. Their 2023 to 2024 population growth rate of 2.9 percent is 5.8 times as fast as the growth of the Non-Latino population. The Latino population growth premium, the difference between Latino and Non-Latino one-year growth rates, is 2.4 percentage points in 2024, a historical high. (See Figure 1)

Table 1: Official U.S. Latino Population Estimates

[T_1]

The sources of population growth, and how these vary by ethnicity, are also noteworthy. Latino natural population change (births minus deaths) remained positive throughout the Pandemic, despite Latinos suffering significantly higher Covid-related mortality. From 2020 through 2024, the cumulative Latino natural population increase was an estimated 3.2 million persons, compared to a decline of 1.3 million for Non-Latinos. (See Figure 2) This is an extraordinary 4.5 million person difference.

           Figure 1: Latino Population Growth Premium                     Figure 2: U.S. Natural Population Change

[Pop_pub]

Latinos powered through the extraordinary challenges of the pandemic and were responsible for keeping overall U.S. natural population change positive. This is further evidence that, as noted in previous Latino GDP Reports, Latinos held up the U.S. economy during the pandemic, highlighting just how vital and uplifting Latino strength and resilience are for the nation.

Labor Force

The latest American Community Survey (ACS) labor force data was released in early September and provides new, never-before released data for 2024 labor market effort by U.S. Latinos. The new data show that there were 35.1 million Latinos in the U.S. labor force in 2024, up 46.5 percent since 2010. This compares to a 6.4 percent rise for Non-Latinos, which implies that the Latino labor force grew 7.2 times faster than Non-Latino from 2010 to 2024. While that is a blistering pace of growth spanning more than a decade, the 2024 Latino labor market data sets whole new performance standards. The U.S. Latino labor force participation rate achieved 69 percent, the highest recorded since 2010, and compares to a Non-Latino rate of just 62.8 percent. The Latino labor force participation premium climbed to 6.2 percentage points, an all-time high.

Latino labor force growth is the single most impressive characteristic described in this essay and one of the most impressive in the Latino GDP Project’s entire body of research. The 2024 Latino labor force grew 5.5 percent from 2023. (See Figure 3) This is historic growth and represents an explosion from the 3.8 percent growth of the prior year, where that rate had been the strongest on record. Due to this incredibly rapid growth rate, the 2024 U.S. Latino labor force growth premium, the difference between Latino and Non-Latino labor force growth rates, shattered the historical record at 4.2 percentage points. (See Figure 4) To put this in perspective, from 2011 to 2023, the average Latino labor force growth premium was 2.2 percentage points. At 4.2 percentage points, 2024’s growth premium is more than 90 percent greater than that historical average. This performance is an outlier of strength, even for Latinos, who had already demonstrated impressive and consistent economic strength during the 2010 to 2023 period.

                  Figure 3: U.S. Labor Force Growth                             Figure 4: Latino Labor Force Growth Premium

[LF_pub]

Conclusion

The hard-working, self-sufficient, optimistic U.S. Latino cohort is growing in every way, in absolute numbers, and in shares of the U.S. population and labor force. New data reveal a U.S. Latino population that is historically large and growing yet faster. And, new data indicate that the U.S. Latino labor force is not only larger and growing faster but is shattering records for economic vibrancy. We see a bright future for the United States, because of Latinos. Hard work, self- sufficiency, optimism, perseverance – these are the characteristics that underly the strength and resilience of U.S. Latinos. These same characteristics will continue to drive growth in the overall United States economy for years to come.

References

Hamilton, D., M. Fienup, D. Hayes-Bautista, and P. Hsu. 2025. “2025 U.S. Latino GDP Report: Hard- Working, Self-Sufficient, Optimistic.” Community Partners, April 2025. www.LatinoGDP.us

[LatinoGDPProject_Cover] 

Written March 31, 2025

CERF’s U.S. Home Price forecast ranked single most accurate

California Lutheran University economists Matthew Fienup and Dan Hamilton have been named as recipients of a 2024 Crystal Ball Award for the Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey (formerly the the Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey and the Case-Shiller Home Price Expectations Survey). Fienup and Hamilton, both of Cal Lutheran’s Center for Economic Research & Forecasting (CERF), are receiving the prestigious national forecasting award for the fourth time in six years, after winning three straight awards in 2019, 2020, and 2021.

The CERF team received this year’s honor for their outstanding accuracy. CERF’s 2-year-ahead forecast of 2024 home prices was the single most accurate among more than 100 forecasters in the survey. CERF’s 3-year-ahead forecast was the number 3 most accurate, and their 1-year-ahead forecast was number 5. Other top finishers include forecasting heavyweights Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics, Denis Egin of the International Monetary Fund, Susan Wachter of the Wharton School, and Carlos Garriga of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

[2024CrystalBall_graphic]

“CERF has been proud to be a part of the Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations survey since it was launched by Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller in 2010,” Hamilton said. “The survey leverages a large community of professional forecasters to provide forward guidance on home prices, which in turn impact household spending, household and investor psychology, and financial markets.” Originally started by Yale Professor and Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller, the organization Pulsenomics surveys a distinguished panel of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts each quarter regarding their 5-year expectations for future home prices in the United States.

The Center for Economic Research & Forecasting was founded by economists Bill Watkins and Dan Hamilton in 2009. Hamilton, CERF’s Director of Economics, has worked with economic forecasting models for nearly 25 years. Fienup arrived at CERF in 2014 and took over as Executive Director upon Watkins’ retirement in 2016. Fienup specializes in applied econometrics and economic policy analysis. CERF provides national, state and regional economic forecasts and analysis, used by government, private business and non-profit organizations. CERF is a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey and the National Association of Business Economics’ Economic Outlook and Economic Policy Surveys. CERF economists are regularly quoted by business journals and major media, including the Wall Street Journal, the Associated Press, the Washington Post, the Financial Times, the Economist Magazine, Forbes, Bloomberg, and CNBC.

“At CERF, our goal is to provide objective, clear-eyed forecasts that reflect what economic theory and state of the art forecasting tools reveal. We see our role as one of calling balls and strikes, rather than advocating for a preferred outcome. Our fourth Crystal Ball award is validation of that approach. It further demonstrates CERF’s outstanding track record of accuracy,” Fienup said. “We are especially proud of this award given the history of the survey and the distinguished list of survey contributors.”

[2023_Ventura_County_Economic_Forecast-Updated 12.14.22 Version]

Written March 11, 2025

The Socio-Economic Importance of Housing

A year ago, I outlined a variety of social and economic impacts from housing in the essay “Housing and Growth”. A link to the full essay is here.  To review, I provide a list of the socioeconomic impacts here:

• Housing is a necessity for family formation, work, and life
• Home ownership is a key rung on the ladder of upward socio-economic mobility
• Housing has a large economic multiplier, that is, a new house generates additional economic activity, jobs and income, with a larger economically stimulating effect than most industries
• A lack of housing contributes to poverty
• A lack of housing contributes to income inequality

This year’s Ventura County Economic Outlook and Forecast essay documents a jobs-housing mismatch, where the majority of sectors contributing to jobs growth are in relatively lower-salary industries, preventing home ownership. This closed door to home ownership creates a barrier to socioeconomic mobility. Home ownership is all-important in providing a financial base with which households can seek further economic improvement; we might think of Ventura County’s severe lack of housing affordability (described in detail below) as actually removing two rungs from the socioeconomic ladder, not just one. This limits human flourishing, especially among the disadvantaged, and is an unyielding roadblock to an egalitarian set of opportunities in our County.

Figure 1: National Association of Realtors Affordability

Figure 1 (above) shows that among the major U.S. metropolitan areas, Ventura County is the next to worst metro in the United States with respect to housing affordability. This might be a bit surprising, as there are other localities that have higher prices than Ventura County. I explain and document the relation between housing costs and income levels in detail below.

Housing Production

As CERF has previously documented, the U.S. home production rate is historically low, as economic expansions go. Over the past 60 years, U.S. new housing production steadily fell lower and lower in each business cycle of expansion and recession (see Fig.1 in last year’s essay – Link). However, even against that national backdrop, the Ventura County new home production rate is substantially lower.

Figure 2: Ventura County and U.S. Home Production

To remove the volatility of the data in Figure 2, I calculate decade by decade averages of U.S. and Ventura County new housing production rates and provide them in Table 1.

Table 1: Per-Capita Home Production by Decade

From Table 1 (above) Ventura County’s 1990s new home production rate was 3.6 new homes per thousand population, a rate that was 28 percent lower than the U.S. rate. Ventura County’s rate relative to the U.S. has been in freefall for some decades now. It fell to a 44 percent rate lower than the U.S. during the 2000s, it fell further to a 56.5 percent rate lower than the U.S. during the 2010s and thus far during the 2020s it has averaged a 64 percent lower rate than the U.S. And this is relative to a U.S. benchmark that itself has declined precipitously during these decades. Ventura County’s extremely low new home production rate has created a severe housing supply constraint. And with each passing decade, Ventura County’s home production falls farther and farther behind.

From monthly realtor data, we see that the median home price hit a high of $972,000 in July of 2024. This results in an annual average of $924,300. I expect that within two years, there will be monthly median home prices that exceed $1 million dollars. Importantly, these prices are for the median home, not a particularly nice, large, or recently built home.

The Dichotomy of Housing Costs and Incomes

Apartment Market Costs and Income

Using the Ventura County Apartment Market survey database from the Dyer-Sheehan Group, the overall July 2024 average monthly rent was $2,675, a rate that is a weighted average across all apartment types, including studios, one-bedroom, two-bedroom, and three-bedroom apartments. The two-bedroom apartment rate was $2,848, which is up 4 percent from last year, as is the overall average.  The overall vacancy rate improved slightly from 2.9 percent to 3.1 percent, which is welcome, but this is still a remarkably tight market.  For more detailed apartment market data, see Table 3, a bit farther below.

Figure 3: Economic Conditions for Ventura County Renters

To assess the conditions for renters, Figure 3 (above) shows the rent trend as well as the salary-to-rent ratio since 2007. Rents, the gold line and left scale, rose sharply from 2012 to 2020, but then, remarkably, rose at an even faster rate from 2020 to now. The salary-to-rent ratio, purple bar and right scale, was 33 percent in 2007 but by 2023 had fallen to only 26.3 percent. This is a devastating decrease of affordability for Ventura County renters. For much of the past 16 years, Ventura County’s apartment costs, and the salaries needed to support those costs, have been diverging, and since 2020 they are diverging at such a rapid rate that there are socioeconomic impacts.

Based on the standard recommendation that no more than thirty percent of a person’s gross wages or salary should be spent on housing and using the smartasset.com take-home pay calculator, a renter would need an annual salary of $172,000 to afford the average two-bedroom apartment rent in Ventura County. The county’s 2023 average annualized salary (stated in 2024 Q2 dollars) was $70,100, which is less than half of the renter’s desired pay level. Only jobs in the Management of Companies sector, just one sector out of Ventura County’s 23 sectors, has salaries higher than $172,000. It does not seem possible that the economic mismatch between the job market and the housing market could be any greater.

Home Ownership Market Costs and Income

The California Association of Realtors median home price of $924,300 for Ventura County for the 2024 year implies a monthly mortgage payment of $4,781. Adding property tax, insurance, and income taxes, and following the 30 percent rule, a household would need to earn an annual income of $360,000 in order to afford the median home. This astonishing figure is almost 260 percent higher than the  $140,000 annual income required to purchase the median home across the U.S. It is about 210 percent higher than the income required for a two-bedroom apartment as described in the previous section above. By any comparison, this estimate provides a dramatic indication of a truly severe housing crisis in Ventura County. This figure also helps us understand the departure of firms, households, workers, and our children from Ventura County to other locations in the U.S.

Table 2 provides the most recent Ventura County annual average salary data, stated in 2024 Q2 dollars, in considerable detail. Average annual salaries range from a low of $30,800 for Hotel Accommodation & Food Services to a high of $174,100 for Company & Enterprise Management. The average annual salary across all industries was $70,100. As impressive as the Company & Enterprise Management sector’s salary is, it is not nearly enough to afford the median priced home in Ventura County based on traditional guidelines (see previous paragraph). However, if there was a household that had two workers who both worked in Company & Enterprise Management, they would be very close to having the income needed to purchase a median priced home.

As mentioned above, this causes a severe limitation on human flourishing. All households should have access to the home ownership market, and through that, a chance to improve their standing socioeconomically.

Table 2: Ventura County Average Salary by Industry

Changing Policy

CERF recognizes that cities are working to bring new housing to market. However, they are forced to operate their planning and building/safety processes within the broader framework of land-use policy which has existed for decades. Ventura County’s land-use policy is the most restrictive in the United States. By changing this broad countywide framework to one where urban areas could be expanded in a thoughtful and strategic way, cities would have a more flexible and rational framework in which to operate. A rational expansion policy would breathe life to planning efforts and it would breathe life into the Ventura County economy. A change to the policy environment such as this would be a large step toward reconciling the severe mismatches, described in this essay, of Ventura County’s housing situation.

During the Pandemic Ventura County’s leaders had vision, bravery, and fortitude. They engaged in truly courageous policy-making which balanced lives and livelihoods during the extraordinary challenges of COVID-19. Let’s harness that courage and excellence and focus it on setting Ventura County in a new policy direction. Other communities who have their own jobs-housing mismatch would see Ventura County as a leader and innovator. But we would not be doing it for regional policy accolades, rather, we would be doing it because of our fundamental commitment to our workers and to our children.

Additional Charts and Tables

Table 3: The Dyer-Sheehan Group Ventura County Apartment Market Survey

Additional Charts

[Units Permitted]

[Median Home Price]

[Housing Turnover]

[Unsold Inventory]

[Apartment Rent]

[Apartment Vacancy]

Written February 12, 2025

Introduction

As CERF has previously documented, demographic and economic data indicate that Ventura County’s economy is stuck in a prolonged period of weakness. Data indicate that the county’s population peaked back in 2016 and has declined every year since. The civilian labor force peaked in 2012. Real GDP peaked in 2007, prior to the Great Recession and has not recovered. Net domestic migration data indicate a sustained outflow of people.

On December 4, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) published updated Ventura County Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. The release provides revisions to all U.S. county-level GDP measures for the years from 2001 to 2022, and provides previously unreleased estimates for 2023. In 2023, Ventura County’s GDP grew by a relatively slow 0.7 percent, whereas the overall U.S. economy expanded by a relatively robust 2.9 percent. This most recent data point is consistent with the ongoing economic weakness that CERF has been documenting for years.

Table 1: Revisions to Ventura County Jobs and GDP

[Table_One]

New and Revised Estimates

The release provided economic growth estimates for 2023, the first time that the BEA has provided such county-level estimates for that year. The Ventura County estimate for 2023 is for growth of 0.7 percent. Table 1 provides two sets of Ventura County GDP growth figures, one from a year ago (“Dec. 2023”), and another from the recent release (“Dec. 2024”). From comparing these annual data releases, we can see that the BEA has upwardly revised Ventura County’s economic growth by varying magnitudes for 2020 to 2022, as shown. Over the entire span of time currently published by the BEA, the average revised Ventura County growth is higher by 0.18 percent. This is a welcome but relatively small change.

Table 1 also provides two sets of Ventura County Non-Farm Job Growth numbers for reference. As with GDP growth, the job growth data are shown as they were understood to be a year ago “Dec. 2023”, and again using the latest available data “Dec. 2024”. The revisions to the jobs growth figures in 2021 (downward) and 2022 (upward) essentially cancel each other, but 2023 job growth rate was dramatically revised downward. The recent data implies that job growth rate fell from 4.0 percent in 2022 to 0.8 percent in 2023, a very large fall.

Updated population data also confirm relatively slow Ventura County growth. The DOF estimates 823,860 Ventura County residents for Jan. 1. 2024, which is about 2,100 residents lower than the year prior. This is a contraction of 0.3 percent and is close to Ventura County’s post-pandemic average contraction of -0.5 percent population growth.

Comparisons of updated GDP, jobs, and population data indicate that Ventura County’s economic vitality has not materially changed since a year ago.

Table 2: Economic Growth – Ventura County, Southern California, and U.S.

[VC_GDP_T2]

GDP Comparisons with Southern California and the U.S.

To provide further perspective, Table 2 shows the latest economic growth data for Ventura County alongside Southern California and the United States.

The upper panel, Panel A, in Table 2 shows that for most years since 2016 Ventura County’s growth has typically been substantially slower than either of Southern California or the U.S. An important and notable exception is 2020, the year of the pandemic, which I will discuss in more detail below.

The lower panel, Panel B, in Table 2 provides an analysis of growth for three episodes, pre-pandemic (2016 to 2019), the pandemic (2020), and post-pandemic (2021 to 2023). From this comparison we see that while Ventura County performed well below the Southern California region and the U.S. in both the pre-pandemic and post-pandemic episodes, our county clearly outperformed Southern California and the U.S. during the pandemic.

CERF has previously emphasized the relative superiority of our County’s policy-response to the pandemic. Our county’s leaders led the state in efforts to re-open small businesses and schools, and to keep these establishments open longer in the face of multiple COVID transmission waves. The county’s economic contraction during the 2020 recession was noticeably less severe than the region and was less than half as severe as the contraction experienced across all counties in the United States. This illustrates the often-repeated CERF statement that policies matter. Allowing economic activity for businesses and for households, versus shutting down economic activity, has significant impacts.

While Ventura County’s policies during the pandemic were superior, the county’s status quo economic development and land use policies, which prevailed for the 20 years prior to the pandemic, are among the most restrictive in the United States. These policies matter too. They exert a strong headwind on the activities of Ventura County households and businesses. They impact people’s lives and provide even greater harm to lower-income households. CERF desires to continue a county-wide conversation that we started a year ago, about the benefits of changing policies to allow and to promote economic growth, for the benefit of all of its citizens.

CERF’s Annual Economic Forecast Event

To this end, CERF is hosting the 2025 CERF Ventura County Economic Forecast Event, the county’s premier networking event, on February 20, 2025 at the Thousand Oaks Civic Arts Plaza. The event and the associated publication will include a deeper dive into the data described in this article. CERF Executive Director, Matthew Fienup will present the 2025 Ventura County Economic Forecast publication with in-depth analysis of the county’s economic and demographic performance and the role of local and regional policies in shaping growth. Fienup will also present CERF’s award-winning U.S. and California Economic Forecasts.

Featured Speaker, Dr. Anthony Bradley, is a Distinguished Research Fellow at the Acton Institute. Bradley is a prolific writer who addresses the intersection of economic and cultural issues and will discuss the importance of inclusive economic growth. This year’s event will also feature comments and analysis from former Ventura Mayor Bill Fulton and current Ventura County Supervisor Matt Lavere. Fulton will discuss the intended and unintended consequences following more than 20 years of SOAR. Lavere will share his personal experience as a Ventura County native and how it informs his work as Supervisor. 

Written by Matthew Fienup | June 14, 2022

Friday’s record high inflation number came as a surprise to many. At 8.6 percent, the increase in prices since a year ago represents the highest inflation rate in over 40 years. The figure was 30 basis points higher than the Wall Street Journal consensus of forecasters and, perhaps more importantly, flew in the face of conventional wisdom which held that inflation peaked two months ago and was declining.

As discussed in detail at our annual forecast event in Thousand Oaks on March 8, CERF’s views on monetary policy have long been unconventional. We have been outspoken critics of Fed policy since 2012 and were among those that President Biden labeled un-serious last summer when the serious economists were claiming that inflation would be transitory.

CERF’s forecast of May’s inflation figure was characteristically unconventional. Our forecast for all-items CPI in May was 8.6 percent.

That is, we did not believe that the headline CPI number had peaked in March. And we believe that it still has a way to go now. Although the monthly rate of price increases likely peaked in March, we forecast that the all-items CPI will increase to a level well above 9 percent and will likely not peak until the end of the year.

What follows are thoughts about inflation that we shared last month in the Pacific Coast Business Times’ Spring Economic Forecast Issue. Last Friday’s inflation figure is welcome validation and means that our forecast is unchanged from a month ago: 

We take a strong position on the cause of the current bought of inflation. As Milton Friedman famously said, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” Between January 2020 and January 2022, the Federal Reserve increased the size of the money supply by more than 40 percent. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari expressed the Fed’s orientation perfectly in March 2020 when he said, “There is an infinite amount of cash in the Federal Reserve.” Fed Chair Jerome Powell did his part throughout the Summer of 2020, urging Congress to put more of the Fed’s expanded money supply directly into the hands of households. The sum of the resulting relief programs was far greater than all of the foregone income that resulted from government-mandated shutdowns. Not surprisingly, the savings rate surged from around 8 percent pre-COVID to more than 30 percent. The resulting surge of consumption of consumer goods drove both congestion at U.S. ports and a surge of consumer prices not seen since the 1970s.  Because we see clear signs of classic monetary inflation, we are forced to conclude that the current bought of inflation will be persistent.

As a technical matter, we expect that the headline CPI inflation figure (which is a measured as a percent change from one year ago) will continue rising through the end of 2022, even as the monthly rate of price increases likely peaked in March. We expect the CPI measure of inflation to top 10 percent and to remain high through 2023. Readers don’t need to take our word for it. The New York Fed’s inflation expectations survey indicates that the median one year ahead expected inflation rate is 6.6 percent. The median three year ahead inflation expectation is 3.7 percent. Economic actors expect that even three years from now, inflation will still be 85 percent above the Fed’s target. Because we also believe that the Federal Reserve does not have the fortitude to endure a jarring correction in asset markets, we believe that the Fed will fail to follow through on the policy normalization that is required in order to tame inflation. As such, we believe that inflation is likely to run even higher than today’s inflation expectations indicate.

Admittedly, we have been pretty outspoken critics of Fed Policy for some time. We feel even more animated in our criticism now that the Fed finds itself so far behind the curve. The Fed only began the current tightening cycle after the nation had experienced nine months of inflation above five percent and three months above seven percent. The experience in late 2018, the last time the Fed announced an intention to normalize monetary policy, is our best prediction of what will happen in 2022. In the waning days of 2018, the Fed abruptly reversed course following a steep decline in asset prices. We don’t believe the Fed will continue tightening during the current cycle as the current market correction deepens.

Inflation is the economic issue of the moment. Real wages declined by 3 percent over the past 12 months. And even higher inflation figures later this year should not surprise anyone.