The Chart Strategist

Trade Nbr. 81 - 2007

2007-08-23T13:01:00.000+02:00

Short Sep 07 E-mini S&P: Entered on Aug 13th - Closed on Aug13th.Short: 1463.25 -- Initial Stop: 1469.00 -- Stopped: 1469.00 -- Result: -1,00R

Bearish in Screen I - At value in Screen II - Entry Set-up 1 in Screen III (uncompleted) - Stopped out.

Comments : Bad trade. I entered as the signal was not yet completed in Screen III... Somehow unlucky as well since the market reversed during the last minute of this bar, ie: the reversal was once again amazingly brutal... tough markets..

Trade Nbr. 80 - 2007

2007-08-23T12:45:00.000+02:00

Long Sep 07 E-Mini S&P : Entered on Aug 13th - Closed on Aug 13th.Long: 1468.50 -- Initial Stop: 1466.25 -- Stopped: 1466.25 -- Result: -1,0R

Bullish in Screen I - Pullback at value in Screen II - Entry Set-up 1 in Screen III - Stopped out.

Comments: Reversal was brutal, no way to exit in order to reduce the risk....

Trade Nbr. 79 - 2007

2007-08-10T19:10:00.000+02:00

Short Sep 07 Crude Oil: Entered on August 10th - Closed on August 10th.

Short: 70.64 -- Initial Stop: 70.89 -- Stopped: 70.89 -- Result: -1,00R

Bearish in Screen I - Pullback to value in Screen II - Entry Set-up 1 in Screen III - Stopped out..

Comments : Difficult trade, the reversal was too quick to allow a better exit.....

Trade Nbr. 78 - 2007

2007-08-06T16:48:00.000+02:00

Short Sep 07 E-mini S&P: Entered on August 6th - Closed on August 6th.Short: 1446.50 -- Initial Stop: 1451.50 -- Covered: 1437.00 -- Result: 1,90R

Bearish in Screen I - Pullback to value in Screen II - Entry Set-up 1 in Screen III - Covered as the market did its move too quickly and was not followed by a rally in Bonds and Yen.....

Comments : Good trade. Exit was good, I noticed that something was different than previous days' sell-offs..

On Holiday this week !!

2007-07-31T23:27:00.000+02:00

I am taking the week off and will be back next week.

Wishing all a good trading week !!

Trade Nbr. 77 - 2007

2007-07-28T11:50:00.000+02:00

Short Nov 07 Soybeans: Entered on July 27th - Closed on July 27th.
Short: 839 4/8 -- Initial Stop: 844 6/8 -- Covered: 843 2/8-- Result: -0,72R

Bearish in Screen I - Pullback to value in Screen II - (Late) Entry Set-up 1 in Screen III - Stopped by my trailing stop.

Comments : Bad trade. Entry was "forced" : I entered too late and then I was unlucky with the trailing stop. The market reversed in a few seconds just as I was adjusting my trailing stop from the 843 2/8 level down to 840 2/8 once the previous candle was completed....This would have reduced the loss to almost nothing....

Grading for Trades nbr. 51 to 75

2007-07-26T14:49:00.001+02:00

As mentioned in previous posts, one of the key element in improving as a trader is to continually monitor the performance over a meaningful number of trades. Grading every 25 trades should help me identify if there are some particular systematic weaknesses that are apparent in my trading. The idea is to measure if I reach a target that gives me a sustainable edge over the long run. The key statistics that define such an edge are the following:

1. Percentage of winning trades: The objective is to achieve a minimum of 60% winning trades.

2. Average win/loss: The objective is to achieve a minimum ratio of 1,5 to 1.

3. 3 biggest wins/3 biggest losses: The objective is to achieve an average of minimum 2 to 1.

4. Biggest win/biggest loss: The objective is to achieve a minimum of 3 to 1.

Nbr. 1 and 2 are given equal weighting (36 out of 100 for each), followed by nbr.3 (16 out of 100) and the lowest weighting for nbr.4 (12 out 100). Anytime I reach the 100 mark over 25 trades, I have achieved my minimum trading objective, anything above indicates that I am on top of my game !!

Once this quantitative evaluation has been completed, I am reviewing each and every one of the 25 trades from my diary with the objective of identifying recurrent patterns, both in my strategy and the execution of the plan. This qualitative analysis should help me to continually look for improvements in my strategy and identify early enough if I need to adapt to changing my game plan. It is, as well, the way to adress recurrent problems regarding the execution of the trading plan and psychological issues that may have occured during the period. With this diagnosis, my aim is to objectively look at the quality of my work and to identify what has to be improved to continue growing as a trader.

Herebelow are the 3 gradings I did sofar since the beginning of the year.

Trades 51 to 75 have been slightly better than the previous 25 but again have not been above the 100 mark, confirming that my trading is still slightly erratic. I have experienced again a serious drawdown during this period (trades 63 to 70). This series of losses has basically been due to the fact that I tried to take signals from a "quicker" timeframe than the usual (using volume-based candles) in order to generate a higher frequency of signals. As soon as I came back to my usual intra-day timeframes, thinks went back to "normal".

Accumulated equity curve since Jan 1st in Rs:

Trade Nbr. 76 - 2007

2007-07-26T08:53:00.000+02:00

Short Sep 07 E-mini S&P: Entered on July 25th - Closed on July 25th.
Short: 1521.50 -- Initial Stop: 1526.50 -- Covered: 1515.75-- Result: 1,15R

Bearish in Screen I - Pullback to value in Screen II - Entry Set-up 1 in Screen III - Covered as the market was printing multiple tails close to the oversold area (lower enveloppe in Screen II).

Comments : Good trade. Exit was good, the market rallied hard later in the day. I took what the market had to give...

Trade Nbr. 75 - 2007

2007-07-26T08:39:00.000+02:00

Long Sep 07 T-Notes: Entered on July 25th - Closed on July 25th.Long: 106'15 -- Initial Stop: 106'11 -- Sold: 106'19 -- Result: 1,0R

Bullish in Screen I - Pullback at value in Screen II - Entry Set-up 2 in Screen III - Sold as the market began to reverse due to the bearish divergence in Screen I.

Comments: Solid trade. Good exit. The key was to be extra cautious due to the bearish divergence in Screen I that was indicating a potential loss of momentum...

Trade Nbr. 74 - 2007

2007-07-25T13:34:00.001+02:00

Long Sep 07 T-Notes: Entered on July 24th - Closed on July 24th.
Long: 106'09.5 -- Initial Stop: 106'06 -- Sold: 106'16.5 -- Result: 2,0R

Bullish in Screen I - Pullback at value in Screen II - Entry Set-up 2 in Screen III - Sold few minutes before the close...

Comments: Solid trade. Good entry and good position management...

Trade Nbr. 73 - 2007

2007-07-25T13:26:00.000+02:00

Long Sep 07 T-Notes: Entered on July 24th - Closed on July 24th.Long: 106'09.5 -- Initial Stop: 106'06.5 -- Sold: 106'08.5 -- Result: -0,33R

Bullish in Screen I - Pullback at value in Screen II - Entry Set-up 1 in Screen III - Sold as the market was reversing fast right after my entry...

Comments: Solid trade. The reversal was very agressive but I had time to bail out before my initial stop was hit reducing my loss..

Trade Nbr. 72 - 2007

2007-07-25T13:14:00.001+02:00

Short Dec 07 Corn: Entered on July 23th - Closed on July 23th.Short: 326.75 -- Initial Stop: 339.75 -- Stopped: 325.75-- Result: 0,33R

Bearish in Screen I - Pullback to value in Screen II - Entry Set-up 2 in Screen III - Covered few minutes before the close as the market was not going lower...

Comments : Good trade. Exit was ok. I was slightly slow for the entry, could have improved this trade's result with a sharper entry....

Trade Nbr. 71 - 2007

2007-07-20T13:18:00.000+02:00

Short Dec 07 Corn: Entered on July 19th - Closed on July 19th.Short: 336.25 -- Initial Stop: 339.25 -- Stopped: 333.75-- Result: 0,83R

Bearish in Screen I - Pullback to value in Screen II - Entry Set-up 1 in Screen III - Stopped out by my trailing stop...

Comments : Good trade. Exit was sharp !! I went back to my "slower" timeframe which generates less signals but the "hit rate" is obviously way better...

Trade Nbr. 70 - 2007

2007-07-19T15:49:00.000+02:00

Long Sep 07 E-mini S&P: Entered on July 16th - Closed on July 16th.Long: 1564.25 -- Initial Stop: 1561.50 -- Stopped: 1561.50 -- Result: -1,0R

Bullish in Screen I - Pullback at value in Screen II - Entry Set-up 1 in Screen III - Stopped out..

Comments: Markets have been showing no trendiness... The reversal was very agressive and did not allow me to bail out before my initial stop was hit...

Trade Nbr. 69 - 2007

2007-07-12T17:07:00.000+02:00

Short Sep 07 E-mini S&P: Entered on July 11th - Closed on July 11th.Short: 1524.25 -- Initial Stop: 1528.25 -- Stopped: 1526.0-- Result: -0,44R

Bearish in Screen I - At value in Screen II - Entry Set-up 1 in Screen III - Stopped out by my trailing stop...

Comments : Tough trade again. This was clearly not my day !! I lost a total of 3,15R during the day... this is almost a personal record !! (and the maximum I allow myself to lose in any given day..). I will drop trades that show bearish/bullish divergences in Screen I in order to improve the odds of my entries...

Trade Nbr. 68 - 2007

2007-07-12T16:38:00.000+02:00

Long Aug 07 Crude Oil : Entered on July 11th- Closed on July 11th.

Long: 72.84 -- Initial Stop: 72.59 -- Sold : 72.64 -- Result: -0,80R

Bullish in Screen I - Pullback at value in Screen II - Entry Set-up 2 in Screen III - Sold as the market reversed hard...

Comments: Entry was taken as Screen I was showing an even bigger bearish divergence, I should really skip those signals..... Exit was good, I did a good job at reducing the loss

Trade Nbr. 67 - 2007

2007-07-12T16:03:00.000+02:00

Short Sep 07 E-mini S&P: Entered on July 11th - Closed on July 11th.Short: 1525.25 -- Initial Stop: 1529.25 -- Stopped: 1528.50-- Result: -0,81R

Bearish in Screen I - Attractive value in Screen II -Entry Set-up in Screen III - Covered as the market reversed very hard.....

Comments : Another tough trade.... More of the same than previous SP trade of the day. This time set up 1 was confirmed in Screen III, but some heavy short-covering cancelled the signal...

Trade Nbr. 66 - 2007

2007-07-12T12:57:00.000+02:00

Long Aug 07 Crude Oil : Entered on July 11th- Closed on July 11th.Long: 72.66 -- Initial Stop: 72.36 -- Sold : 72.78 -- Result: 0,40R

Bullish in Screen I - Pullback to value in Screen II - Entry Set-up 2 in Screen III - Stopped by my trailing stop.

Comments: Good trade in tough markets !! Exit was good as the market reversed heavily afterwards...

Trade Nbr. 65 - 2007

2007-07-12T12:46:00.000+02:00

Long Aug 07 Crude Oil : Entered on July 11th- Closed on July 11th.Long: 72.67 -- Initial Stop: 72.39 -- Sold : 72.53 -- Result: -0,50R

Bullish in Screen I - At value in Screen II - Entry Set-up 1 in Screen III - Stopped by my trailing stop.

Comments: Tough markets !! Exit was good, I did a good job at reducing the loss..

Trade Nbr. 64 - 2007

2007-07-12T12:26:00.000+02:00

Short Sep 07 E-mini S&P: Entered on July 11th - Closed on July 11th.

Short: 1521.25 -- Initial Stop: 1525.00 -- Stopped: 1525.0-- Result: -1,00R

Bearish in Screen I - Pullback to value in Screen II - (uncompleted) Entry Set-up 2 in Screen III - Stopped out.

Comments : Tough trade. I entered as the bar was almost completed with a a set-up 2 but big buying kicked in right after my entry and reversed the market very fast, leaving no pullback to improve the exit.....

Trade Nbr. 63 - 2007

2007-07-12T12:11:00.001+02:00

Long Aug 07 Crude Oil : Entered on July 10th- Closed on July 10th.

Long: 72.91 -- Initial Stop: 72.65 -- Sold : 72.75 -- Result: -0,62R

Bullish in Screen I - Pullback to value in Screen II - Entry Set-up 1 in Screen III - Stopped by my trailing stop.

Comments: The bearish divergence in Screen I was indicating that odds were slightly lower for the trend to continue. Exit was not very good, could have done a better job of reducing the loss..

Trade Nbr. 62 - 2007

2007-07-12T12:07:00.000+02:00

Long Sep 07 Copper : Entered on June 29th - Closed on July 6th.Long: 3,4340 -- Initial Stop: 3,2890 -- Sold: 3,5760 -- Result: 0.98R

Bullish in Screen I - Pullback to value in Screen II - Entry Set-up 1 in Screen III - Sold on july 6th because of an acute food intoxication which did not allow me to follow the markets...

Comments: Good entry. Exit was (unfortunately) "forced" by my health condition....

Trade Nbr. 61 - 2007

2007-07-12T11:57:00.000+02:00

Long Sep 07 Euro: Entered on June 29th - Closed on July 6th.Long: 1,3553 -- Initial Stop: 1,3415 -- Sold: 1.3653 -- Result: 0.72R

Bullish in Screen I - Pullback to value in Screen II - Entry Set-up 1 in Screen III - Sold on july 6th because of an acute food intoxication which did not allow me to follow the markets...

Comments: Good entry. Exit was (unfortunately) "forced" by my health condition....

Long Term Trading - Entries

2007-06-30T15:29:00.000+02:00

I entered in 2 new Long-Term positions on Friday. They are both reported in this post.

Long Sep 07 Copper : Entered on June 29thLong: 3,4340 -- Initial Stop: 3,2890 -- Objective: 3.9870

Bullish in Screen I - Pullback to value in Screen II - Entry Set-up 1 in Screen III

Long Sep 07 Euro: Entered on June 29thLong: 1,3553 -- Initial Stop: 1,3415 -- Objective: 1.3910

Bullish in Screen I - Pullback to value in Screen II - Entry Set-up 1 in Screen III.

Trade Nbr. 60 - 2007

2007-06-27T22:41:00.000+02:00

Long Aug 07 Crude Oil : Entered on June 27th - Closed on June 27th.

Long: 68.84 -- Initial Stop: 68.56 -- Sold : 69.08 -- Result: 0,86R

Bullish in Screen I - Pullback to value in Screen II - Entry Set-up 1 in Screen III - Stopped by my trailing stop.

Comments: The market was not willing to give more...... The initial stop was slightly too loose I could have increased my position size accordingly...