The Cloud Trader

Morning Update for Wednesday, April 15th

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Wed, 15 Apr 2015 13:37:00 +0000

Daily S&P Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change:Bullish
Inside Day/Outside Day:Outside
Location of price relative to market profile: Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: Crude Oil (CL), Natural Gas (NG), Dollar (DX), Gold (GC)
Down: Euro (6E)

Projected ES price action for the day:The S&P has pushed through yesterday's high during the premarket and is poised for a test of the swing pivot high set on March 20th. The market cleared the trendline resistance and is in a longer term consolidation pattern. The profile references show the ES bouncing off the VPOC from April 13th. Intraday tone is bullish.

News for the day:

8:30a: Empire State Mfg Survey
9:15a: Industrial Production
10:00a: Housing Market Index
10:30a: Petroleum Status Report
2:00p: Beige Book Report
4:00p: Treasury International Capital

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention

S&P Daily Trend: Neutral

Morning Update for Tuesday, April 14th

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Tue, 14 Apr 2015 13:58:00 +0000

Daily S&P Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change:Balanced
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Near value area low
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: Natural Gas (NG), Crude Oil (CL), Bonds (ZB), Euro (6E), 10 Year Treasury Note (ZN)
Down: Gold (GC), Dollar (DX)

Projected ES price action for the day:The S&P has been consolidating in a tight range for the past week after bouncing off the minor trendline resistance level dating back to February. We have seen below average volume coming in on the indexes recently, a signal that large institutional traders are awaiting further market catalysts before entering in positions. Overnight trading has been primarily balanced and the intraday tone is bullish.

News for the day:

8:30a: PPI-FD
8:30a: Retail Sales
10:00a: Business Inventories

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention

S&P Daily Trend: Consolidation

Morning Update for Monday, April 13th

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Mon, 13 Apr 2015 13:51:00 +0000

Daily S&P Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Near value area high
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: Crude Oil (CL), Natural Gas (NG)
Down:Euro (6E)

Projected ES price action for the day: The S&P is akin to physics and the law of gravity. For prices to move higher, there has to be momentum of buyers outweighing sellers. At any given point in time, buy volume must come into the market to elevate prices until demand is met. From there, it either will trade horizontally and wait for new buyers or sell off due to lack of new buyers entering the marketplace. We are currently entering a supply zone which has been tested twice since February on lower volume. Until there is a breakout of the area, the higher probability is for continued consolidation. The intraday tone is bullish.

News for the day:

2:00p: Treasury Budget

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention

S&P Daily Trend: Neutral

Morning Update for Friday, April 10th

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Fri, 10 Apr 2015 11:04:00 +0000

Daily S&P Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Balanced
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: Gold (GC), Natural Gas (NG), Dollar (DX)
Down:Euro (6E), Crude Oil (CL)

Projected ES price action for the day: The S&P gained some traction yesterday and broke out of the multi-day consolidation on the daily chart. The market is now approaching some minor trendline resistance and could be marked as a potential reversal point. The overnight activity has been slightly to the bullish side and is trading above Thursday's range. Intraday bias is bullish.

News for the day:

8:30a: Import & Export Prices
2:00p: Treasury Budget

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention

S&P Daily Trend: Horizontal

Morning Update for Thursday, April 9th

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 09 Apr 2015 13:32:00 +0000

Daily S&P Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Near value area low
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: Crude Oil (CL), Dollar (DX)
Down: Gold (GC), Corn (ZC), Euro (6E), Soybeans (ZS)

Projected ES price action for the day: The S&P has been balancing this week after the positive reaction on Monday to the subpar jobs report. Given the recent triple bottom on the chart, it is clear that the bulls are supporting the market and buying the dips. There has been some shorts selling during the premarket, but expect more traders to enter on a breakout of Wednesday's range. Intraday bias is bearish.

News for the day:

8:30a: Jobless Claims

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention

S&P Daily Trend: Neutral

Morning Update for Wednesday, April 8th

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Wed, 08 Apr 2015 13:34:00 +0000

Daily S&P Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Near value area low
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: Euro (6E), Bonds (ZB)
Down: Gold (GC), Dollar (DX), Natural Gas (NG), Crude Oil (CL)

Projected ES price action for the day: The S&P sold off sharply into the close yesterday with liquidation occurring during the last hour of trading. The premarket activity has been slightly bullish. The market is priced near value area low and the higher probability is for two way trade until there is a breakout of Tuesday's range. Intraday bias is bullish.

News for the day:

10:30a: Petroleum Status Report
2:00p: FOMC Minutes

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention

S&P Daily Trend: Neutral

Morning Update for Tuesday, April 7th

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Tue, 07 Apr 2015 13:28:00 +0000

Daily S&P Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Neutral
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: Dollar (DX), Natural Gas (NG), Bonds (ZB)
Down: Soybeans (ZS), Gold (GC), Euro (6E), Crude Oil (CL)

Projected ES price action for the day:The S&P rallied on Monday after the less than stellar jobs report from Friday. The reason cited by analysts was because the jobs number would lead the Fed to wait longer to raise interest rates and extend the bullish environment that has been in place since early 2013. The trading activity recently seen in the markets emphasizes the point of trading price action rather than the news. The activity in the premarket has been balanced and the location of trade is key. The shorts were able to sell the market below the trendline only to have to bulls lift the offers after the jobs report. However, the market is fluctuating in a trading range with a neutral bias for the day.

News for the day:

10:00a: Jolts

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention

S&P Daily Trend: Neutral

Morning Update for Monday, April 6th

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Mon, 06 Apr 2015 13:19:00 +0000

Daily S&P Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile: Below value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: Crude Oil (CL), Gold (GC), Corn (ZC)
Down:Bonds (ZB), Natural Gas (NG)

Projected ES price action for the day:The S&P sold off dramatically on Friday after the subpar jobs report. Since the stock market was closed due to the Good Friday holiday, the reaction occurred on the futures. The futures have made back some of the ground in early morning trading and are approaching the support levels which had been built up recently. A head and shoulders pattern has been developing on the daily chart and could catch a bid at the neckline. If prices sell through the level, then the higher probability is for follow through as more short sellers enter the market. The midterm trend is neutral and the intraday tone is bearish.

News for the day:

10:00a: ISM Non-Mfg Index

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention

S&P Daily Trend: Neutral

Morning Update for Wednesday, April 1

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Wed, 01 Apr 2015 13:16:00 +0000

Daily S&P Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment:Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile: Below value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: Bonds (ZB), Gold (GC), Soybeans (ZS), 10 Year Note (ZN), Euro (6E)
Down: Dollar (DX)

Projected ES price action for the day:The volatility is starting to pick up on the ES as the bears are aiming to pull prices from the trendline support. After yesterday's selloff, there was significant selling during the postmarket, typically a sign that traders are attempting to build momentum before the next day's open and continue the reversal when equities are active. We are seeing more sell side volume on the daily chart from the all time highs and it could be the beginning of a change in market direction. Two things are needed for this to happen: 1. Profit taking from the bulls and 2. initiation of short positions by the bears. Given the afterhours selling, the intraday tone is more bearish.

News for the day:

8:15a: ADP Employment Report
9:45a: PMI Manufacturing Index
10:00a: ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00a: Construction Spending
10:30a: Petroleum Status Report

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention

S&P Daily Trend: Neutral

Morning Update for Tuesday, March 31st

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Tue, 31 Mar 2015 13:35:00 +0000

Daily S&P Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Near POC
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: Dollar (DX), Natural Gas (NG)
Down:Soybeans (ZS), Corn (ZC), Euro (6E), Crude Oil (CL)

Projected ES price action for the day:The S&P rallied yesterday and is once again above the trendline. It is important to note the low volume buying days since the all-time high on February 25th. There have been 24 trading days since then and only 1 above average volume bullish day. On the contrary, there have been 8 above average sell days, a signal that the buyers may be running out of steam. The chart pattern is still neutral and the intraday tone is neutral to bearish with all of the premarket activity trading inside of Monday's range.

News for the day:

9:00a: S&P Case Shiller Index
9:45a: Chicago PMI
10:00a: Consumer Confidence

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention

S&P Daily Trend: Neutral

Morning Update for Monday, March 30th

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Mon, 30 Mar 2015 13:25:00 +0000

Daily S&P Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment:Neutral
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile: Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: Dollar (DX), Natural Gas (NG)
Down:Bonds (ZB), Crude Oil (CL), Euro (6E), Gold (GC)

Projected ES price action for the day: The bulls are looking to keep the uptrend in tack dating back to October 2014. Prices did sell below the level last week and signs are pointing to added volatility around the range. The S&P has seen some buying during the premarket, but it is currently trading in the middle of a high volume area. The intraday tone is neutral to bullish.

News for the day:

8:30a: Personal Income and Outlays
10:00a: Pending Home Sales
10:30a: Dallas Fed Mfg Survey

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention

S&P Daily Trend: Neutral

Morning Update for Wednesday, March 25th

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Wed, 25 Mar 2015 13:20:00 +0000

Daily S&P Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment:Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change:Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Near value area low
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: Crude Oil (CL), Euro (6E), Gold (GC), Bonds (ZB)
Down:Natural Gas (NG), Dollar (DX)

Projected ES price action for the day: The S&P had a mild selloff yesterday and prices continue to build value near the all-time highs. The chart is still above the trendline dating back to October 2014 and the tone remains bullish while the market makes higher highs. The profile had a fairly even distribution yesterday, indicative of a balance day lower. Overnight trading was neutral and the intraday bias is even.

News for the day:

8:30a: Durable Goods Orders
10:30a: Petroleum Status Report

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention

S&P Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

Morning Update for Tuesday, March 24th

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Tue, 24 Mar 2015 11:40:00 +0000

Daily S&P Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment:Neutral
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Near value area low
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: Natural Gas (NG), Gold (GC), Euro (6E), Crude Oil (CL)
Down:Soybeans (ZS), Dollar (DX)

Projected ES price action for the day:The S&P has been able to hold the gains from last week's Fed announcement with same size bars forming on the daily chart the past 2 days. The profile formed a "p" distribution yesterday, a more bullish sign as shorts liquidating their positions. The premarket activity has seen more buying and the intraday tone is neutral, especially with prices set to open inside of the value area.

News for the day:

8:30a: Consumer Price Index
9:45a: PMI Manufacturing Index
10:00a: New Home Sales

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention

S&P Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

Morning Update for Monday, March 23rd

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Mon, 23 Mar 2015 11:41:00 +0000

Daily S&P Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment:Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Near value area low
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: Corn (ZC), Euro (6E), Soybeans (ZS)
Down:Gold (GC), Dollar (DX), Crude Oil (CL), Natural Gas (NG)

Projected ES price action for the day:The S&P has rallied once again and is approaching the all-time highs after the positive Fed news from last week. Friday's profile revealed a poor high and, if there is buying today, the high probability is for a push above Friday's range. Trading during the premarket has been evenly distributred and intraday tone is neutral to bullish.

News for the day:

10:00a: Existing Home Sales

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention

S&P Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

Morning Update for Friday, March 20th

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Fri, 20 Mar 2015 12:02:00 +0000

Daily S&P Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile: Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: Natural Gas (NG), Euro (6E), Bonds (ZB), Gold (GC)
Down:Dollar (DX), Crude Oil (CL)

Projected ES price action for the day:The S&P retraced some of the large upmove from the Fed announcement on Wednesday. Yesterday was a balancing day with an evenly distributed profile with prices closing at the point of control. The overnight action has been more bullish and the key level to watch will be Thursday's high of 2089.5. If prices can get above it and time and value build higher, then the next natural target will be the Wednesday's high of 2099.75. Intraday edge is bullish.

News for the day:

*NONE*

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention

S&P Daily Trend: Neutral

Morning Update for Thursday, March 19th

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 19 Mar 2015 12:07:00 +0000

Daily S&P Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment:Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: Gold (GC), Soybeans (ZS), Corn (ZC), Bonds (ZB), Dollar (DX)
Down:Euro (6E), Natural Gas (NG), Crude Oil (CL)

Projected ES price action for the day:The S&P reacted positively to the Fed news yesterday as the decision makers are still being patient before raising interest rates. Based on price location, the market is trading within the high volume composite profile between 1960-2090 and had tested the top after the announcement. The premarket action has been neutral with all of the time and volume included in yesterday's trading range. The key level to watch for today is Wednesday's high of 2099.75. Any activity above the number will bring in added buyers looking to build momentum from the Fed event. Intraday tone is neutral to bullish.

News for the day:

8:30a: Jobless Claims
10:00a: Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention

S&P Daily Trend: Neutral

Morning Update for Wednesday, March 18th

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Wed, 18 Mar 2015 12:04:00 +0000

Daily S&P Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment:Neutral
Overnight Inventory Change:Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Near value area low
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: Soybeans (ZS), Bonds (ZB), Corn (ZC), 10 Year Treasury Note (ZN)
Down:Natural Gas (NG), Crude Oil (CL)

Projected ES price action for the day:Today is significant with the Fed annoucement set for 2p this afternoon. Tread carefully if trading before the news as the markets typically trade in a horizontal range as market participants position themselves for the macro-driven Fed event. Remember to trade price first and news second as evidenced most recently by the market selloff after last week's positive job report.

News for the day:

10:30a: Petroleum Status Report
2:00p: FOMC Annoucement

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention

S&P Daily Trend: Neutral