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Astros take a surprisingly quiet series opener in Seattle, 4-2

2019-06-04T00:38:45-05:00

It was a mostly unremarkable win for the Astros, although there was some weirdness around the edges

Entering today, the Astros were the best hitting team in the majors, going by wRC+. Also entering today, the Mariners had allowed more runs allowed than any other team in the majors. No one would have blamed you if you had expected tonight to be a night of offensive fireworks for the Astros.

Heck, no one would have blamed you if you thought that fifteen minutes into the game. After all, the Astros put up a three-spot on Mariners’ opener Cory Gearrin in the first. After Alex Bregman walked and stole second, Josh Reddick tripled him in, then Yuli Gurriel brought Reddick in on a fielder’s choice, then Robinson Chirinos added a solo home run for good measure.

Opening up in a big way!

3-0 lead after the top of the 1st. #TakeItBack pic.twitter.com/fuuO6kjA5V
— Houston Astros (@astros) June 4, 2019

Not only that, but Wade LeBlanc would be stepping in to take over for Gearrin in the second. LeBlanc has had a fairly rough year so far, with an ERA of 6.99 entering the day, and his last appearance against the Astros back in April ended in under five innings, with his two allowed runs feeling lucky compared to his eight hits allowed.

But the rest of the evening wound up being incredibly quiet. All of the scoring in the game wound up being confined to the top of the first, the bottom of the third, and the top of the sixth. The Astros would only get three more hits (plus a hit batter and a second walk) the rest of the night. Meanwhile, the Mariners would muster a pair of solo home runs, but couldn’t turn their remaining five hits and fives walks into anything.

For what it’s worth, the Astros’ fourth run was pretty bizarre. After a Bregman double and a Reddick bloop single with one out, Yuli hit a ground ball to shortstop Dylan Moore that looked tailor-made for an inning-ending double play. Except that Moore decided to throw home. Not the ideal strategy, maybe, but it would have made sense…had catcher Omar Narváez not taken off to back up the first baseman one the presumed double play. You certainly don’t see that every day.

Ope, didn't see ya there. #TakeItBack pic.twitter.com/gLUQtv0Atr
— Houston Astros (@astros) June 4, 2019

The Astros threatened again in the seventh, with a Tyler White leadoff walk and a Myles Straw single, but they both got stranded. Jake Marisnick leading off the second with an HBP was the only other offense they could manage against LeBlanc, who threw the final eight innings for the M’s.

Thankfully, that wound up being enough, as the Astros managed to stitch together a solid enough performance. Corbin Martin got the start, and only lasted three innings thanks to a high pitch count. By the end of the third, after allowing dingers to Mallex Smith and Edwin Encarnacion, Martin was already at 76 pitches. On the night, he allowed two other hits and three walks while striking out three.

Thankfully, the bullpen arms with the heaviest usage got to rest, as Framber Valdez (last appearance May 26^th) got the next four innings and the eventual win, then Chris Devenski (last appearance May 29^th) took the eighth. Ryan Pressley then stepped in for the ninth to pick up his third save on the year.

Valdez wasn’t overpowering, but he was good enough to mostly quiet Seattle’s lineup. The first batter he saw, Shed Long, hit a double and then then reached third on a fly ball, but he would be stranded there on a ground out and a strike out. Long would be the last batter of the night to reach third for the Mariners. Valdez would allow one more single the rest of the way, finishing with three total strikeouts and two more walks, Devenski would allow one hit in an otherwise quiet inning that saw him picking up a K, and Pressley had a one-two-three ninth. Also of note was another stellar Jake play to end the eigth:

This is not a retweet. @JSMarisnick did it again! #TakeItBack pic.twitter.com/88IPWrqZJn
— Houston Astros (@astros) June 4, 2019

The win moves the Astros to 41-20 on the year, 9.0 games ahead of the second place Rangers. Tomorrow will mark game two of a four game set against Seattle, with former Mariner Wade Miley starting for the Astros and somebody presumably starting for the Mariners, although they haven’t announced a starter yet, so maybe they’ll switch things up and try a pitching machine or something. Tune in tomorrow to find out!

Astros select Ole Miss shortstop Grae Kessinger at 68th overall

2019-06-03T23:35:00-05:00

A SEC infielder with big league bloodlines, Kessinger rocketed up draft boards with an outstanding effort in conference play

Following up their selection of Korey Lee in round one, the Astros picked Ole Miss shortstop Grae Kessinger, grandson of six-time MLB All-Star Don Kessinger, in round two with the 68th overall selection. A native of Oxford, Kessinger was seen as a promising prep shortstop in the 2016 class but had a rock-solid commitment to hometown Ole Miss. With the Rebels, he had a rough freshman campaign in which he hit .175/.287/.247 in 189 plate appearances but improved greatly as a sophomore, posting a .300/.389/.473 line with eight homers as the team’s starting shortstop.

Entering this season, Kessinger was seen as a likely day two prospect with a chance to get into day one, but struggled out of the gates. As noted by MLB.com, his career batting average was sitting at .248 entering conference play, but he turned on the jets against SEC competition, putting together a blistering .405 batting average that eventually earned him a late day one selection.

As a prospect, Kessinger has the typical hallmarks of a player with MLB bloodlines with very strong defensive fundamentals and baserunning instincts. He has a line-drive oriented cut and controls the zone very well, but doesn’t get into much of the raw power in his 6’2” frame. Overall, Kessinger’s tools are a tad light, but he has potential for a plus hit tool which was on full display in the second half of the season. His package feels most likely to project as a super-sub, as his defensive polish should allow him to play short, second base, left field or even first base comfortably if necessary. His contributions in terms of home run power figure to be modest barring a swing change, but it might be dangerous to mess with an approach that has been working so well for Kessinger as of late.

The Astros’ two selections on Tuesday share a common trait- both players seriously boosted their draft stock with their 2019 performances. Korey Lee hit very little in his first two years with Cal, and while Kessinger enjoyed a strong sophomore campaign, his performance looked to be headed in the wrong direction in the early part of his junior season. It’s a trend to monitor heading into tomorrow, when the Astros will make eight more selections. Having gone with Lee and Kessinger, they may have a bit of extra bonus pool money with which to maneuver in the remainder of the draft- in which they have the third-smallest pool.

Astros Select Cal Backstop Korey Lee in Draft Night Surprise

2019-06-03T22:06:00-05:00

After long rumored interest in local pitcher JJ Goss, the Astros opted for a late-rising catcher at 32.

The 32nd overall pick in the draft is a difficult one to project for obvious reasons: even if you have a good idea of who the team in question is interested in, you can’t know which players are going to go off the board ahead of the selection. In the lead-up to tonight’s first round, the Astros short list was rumored to include Logan Davidson, Greg Jones, Kody Hoese, Daniel Espino and JJ Goss- all prospects rumored in the late first round range, with suitors starting in the early 20s.

When the Astros went on the clock at 32, only Goss remained from that list, making him the presumed most likely selection. In an unexpected turn, Mizzou outfielder Kameron Misner was also left on the board- even though Misner’s stock had taken a noticeable hit since early in the season after he struggled in SEC play, he appeared poised to have a floor of the Yankees at 30 based on the public rumor mill. A 21 year old right fielder, Misner has plus raw power and plus speed, but hasn’t shown a consistent hit tool to this point. His raw tools are tantalizing, but any team selecting Misner would need to feel comfortable with his flaws and have a clear plan for cleaning them up.

In the end, the Astros went in a third direction. They, like 28 other teams, were too skittish on Misner’s contact ability to pull the trigger in round one, and opted for a late rising, 2019 breakout prospect in Cal catcher Korey Lee. While Lee was outside of the top 100 draft prospects for some outlets, he started to shoot up some boards late in the process on the heels of a strong junior campaign, and ranked 45th overall on the final edition of FanGraphs’ THE BOARD. He’s a slight reach at the 32nd selection, but the Astros clearly coveted Lee and didn’t feel comfortable trying to steal him in round 2.

As a prospect, Lee has a great catcher’s frame at 6’1”, 205 lbs. with twitchy athleticism. He looks the part behind the dish with a quick pop and a solid average arm, and should have the ingredients to be a dependable receiver. The bat really came on for Lee in 2019, as he improved upon his 2018 marks of .238/.328/.426 with a .339/.415/.613 line with 13 home runs as a junior, hitting behind #3 overall pick Andrew Vaughn. Lee uses a fairly sizable leg kick and shows deft hands. It’s not the quickest bat you’ll see, but Lee hits the ball with authority and should have solid average power in his frame. His swing is balanced, and while he’s not going to be an impact bat, he could get on base at a respectable clip and provide some pop in the lower part of a lineup.

It’s tough to argue that the Astros didn’t reach a bit for their guy in Lee, but he was unlikely to make it to their second selection, forcing them to pop him in the first. He doesn’t have the huge upside of a player like Misner or Goss, both of whom went off the board in the comp round, but he has an appealing package of traits that could translate into a primary catcher role at the big league level. There’s a chance that the Astros could get Lee a bit underslot, affording them some much needed flexibility with their small bonus pool, but they still wouldn’t have enough to work with to meet any huge demands. The Astros will have one more selection tonight, at 68th overall.

Game 60 Thread. June 3 2019. Astros vs Mariners

2019-06-03T20:38:53-05:00

Let's sweep these guys too

A QUICK recognition of how exSTRAWrdinarily fast Myles is

2019-06-03T19:02:44-05:00

A light hitting, speedster has captured the hearts of Astros fans. At the end of last year, Astros fans got their first taste as Straw tied his season high in home runs with his first MLB home run:

#Astros No. 14 prospect Myles Straw blasts his first @MLB career home run in the 1st inning in Game 2 of the @Astros' doubleheader against the @Orioles

Watch live: https://t.co/FFFm5dk5GL pic.twitter.com/GuKGKzPUaL
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) September 30, 2018

Straw, came in #10 on CrawfishBoxes top 30 prospects (Spencer and AstrosFuture do an excellent job) with this to say:

10. Myles Straw, OF

Current Level: MLB

ETA: 2018

DOB: 10/17/94

Straw has steadily made his way through the system after being a 12th round pick in 2015. He hits for average, draws walks, and steals bases. He started the year in AA and hit .327 with a .414 OBP in 65 games. He was also 35-41 in stolen bases. He was promoted to AAA and played in 66 games hitting .257 with .349 OBP while stealing another 35 bags. Overall he hit .291 with 70 SB in 131 games. He saw some time in Houston too and was 3-for-9 with a homer. He possesses plus speed and is probably the fastest player in the Astros system. He also has a very strong arm and with the his speed, should be able to be plus in center field. Plus speed, plus arm, and above average defense bodes well for Straw to big a major leaguer for a long time.

2018 Stats: 131 G, .291 BA/.381 OBP/.353 SLG, 17 2B, 6 3B, 1 HR, 31 RBI, 70 SB, 73 BB/102 K

Despite his lack of power, he still managed a 131 wRC+!!

Spencer did a profile on potential rookie contributors for 2019, with this to say:

“Myles Straw, OF, 24 - An outstanding find by the Astros in round 12 of the 2015 draft, Straw played himself out of fringe prospect status with his epic 70-stolen base 2018 campaign. A 5’10” outfielder with little power, Straw has a similar offensive profile to Garrett Stubbs, but is a true plus-plus baserunner, having succeeded on 88.6% of stolen base attempts in the minors last season. He hit just two home runs last year and rarely connects with authority, but he brings a savvy approach and has had consistently high OBPs up the ladder. Straw will need to keep his contact rate around 85% to be a consistent contributor in the bigs, but I like his chances to do so. Straw projects to play the Tony Kemp role and provide more value with his speed, an area where Kemp has struggled as a big leaguer.”

Straw hasn’t hesitated to show off his elite speed or defense since the start of the year with this catch back in February:

Approximately 837 feet covered by @myles_straw, according to our very unofficial calculations. pic.twitter.com/VkVIH5SAFj
— Houston Astros (@astros) February 24, 2019

But I know what you’re thinking, that game doesn’t even count. Here’s one that did:

@myles_straw
Stay up late with us @astros vs A's right now on AT&T SportsNet#TakeItBack pic.twitter.com/o0tzmBmSYv
— AT&T SportsNet SW (@ATTSportsNetSW) June 2, 2019

For context:

Myles Straw's snag in the first inning had a catch probability of 5%! Wow.... He needed to cover 80ft in 4.2 seconds and had a sprint speed of 31.7 ft/sec. That's absolutely flying.
— Daren Willman (@darenw) June 2, 2019

And some more highlights:

some say @myles_straw got a speeding ticket jogging through a school zone...
some say that is a lie i just made up.
but this is 6.1 sec pic.twitter.com/0f341ktIvv
— Calhoun (@linkcalhoun) June 2, 2019

Big day for the @astros speedy @myles_straw ⚡️
3 HITS, 3 STOLEN BASES, 3 RUNS
He slowed down enough to speak with our @JuliaMorales after the #Astros win over the A's. #TakeItBack pic.twitter.com/MgHAPsYGgJ
— AT&T SportsNet SW (@ATTSportsNetSW) June 3, 2019

The 2019 Crawfish Boxes MLB Draft Guide and Thread

2019-06-03T09:05:43-05:00

Your one stop shop for 2019 MLB Draft schedule, resources, and expert draft profiles and analysis by Spencer Morris.

The 2019 MLB Draft is finally here. The Houston Astros hold the 32nd pick overall.

Schedule:

Mon, June 3, 6 PM CDT - Rounds 1 & 2 on MLB Network and MLB.com
Tue, June 4, Noon CDT - Rounds 3-10 on MLB.com
Wed, June 5, 11 AM CDT - Rounds 11-40 on MLB.com

Collected all in one place are the draft profiles Spencer Morris has been providing during the offseason, in order of their rank on FanGraphs MLB Draft Big Board, as of the morning of June 3, 2019:

7. Nick Lodolo, LHP, TCU

12. Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Tech

14. Quinn Priester, RHP, Cary-Grove HS, IL

19. Shea Langeliers, C, Baylor

23. Keoni Cavaco, 3B, Eastlake HS, CA

25. Logan Davidson, SS, Clemson

26. Kameron Misner, OF/1B, Missouri

31. J.J. Goss, RHP, Cy-Ranch HS, TX

33. Greg Jones, SS, UNC Wilmington

35. Daniel Espino, RHP, Premier Academy HS, GA

38. Michael Toglia, 1B/OF, UCLA

59. Josh Wolf, RHP, St. Thomas HS, TX

79. Will Robertson, OF, Creighton

82. Rece Hinds, 3B, IMG Academy HS, FL

HS-P-1. Connor Phillips, RHP, Magnolia West HS, TX

COL-P-1. Ryan Zeferjahn, RHP, Kansas

Astros Draft Tendencies - by Spencer Morris (10/22/18) - A look at Jeff Luhnow’s drafts from 2012-2018 and what that may tell us about the 2019 Draft.

Share your thoughts on draft prospects and who you might like to see the Astros select.

Astros Crawfish Boil: June 3rd, 2019

2019-06-03T08:10:00-05:00

Start your week with some of the best Astros links around

Check out the rest of the Crawfish Boxes here

Astros News

It took 12 innings but the Astros broke out the brooms for the weekend sweep of the Athletics yesterday (Houston Chronicle)
Chandler Rome laid out the takeaways from that series here (Texas Sports Nation)
Myles Straw was impressive in Oakland, including this jaw-dropping catch Saturday (Astros.com)
But Sunday was his day to shine on the base paths, and here he is talking with Julia about his big game (Twitter.com)
JV had himself a game on Saturday as well, continuing to add to history (Houston Chronicle)
The PAC 12 Network has released a three-part series on AJ Hinch’s baseball journey, and you can find them here (PAC 12 Network)
It’s definitely worth watching considering Hinch is the driving force behind the ‘Stros success (Houston Sportsmap)
Even with their lineup gutted Round Rock is still winning, which is a testament to Houston’s depth (The Statesman)
It’s also a testament to one of the best development programs in the league, and here’s how the Astros built that system (The Ringer)

Around the League

The MLB draft kicks off tonight, so here’s a primer on how to watch (MLB.com)
Jay Bruce has been traded from Seattle to Philadelphia as the Mariners hot 2019 start has officially fizzled out (AP News)
And they now find themselves “deep in sell mode” as they stare into the abyss (MLB Trade Rumors)
Speaking of a cold and uncaring universe for other baseball team’s fans, Joey Gallo was placed on the IL yesterday (ESPN)
Keuchel and Kimbrel are no longer attached to qualifying offers, so who’s gonna pay them? (The Athletic, $$$)
Texas A&M came all the back from a 9-1 deficit in the 7th to walk off and eliminate West Virginia with a 9th inning grand slam (NCAA.com)
But were unfortunately eliminated themselves by Duke later that afternoon (CanTexProud.com)
I like my women like I like my baseball games: Covered in bees! (CUT4)

He’s For Real. Time to Trust Wade Miley

2019-06-03T00:40:00-05:00

2019 is proving he’s no fluke.

A New Beginning?

If you’re like most Astros fans when the team announced the signing of Wade Miley last off-season, you were like, “Is this it? After letting Charlie Freakin Morton, and Dallas Keuchel walk, that’s all they got back?”

Sure, he was pretty good last year. At age 31, Wade Miley made a remarkable transformation. After a career in which he posted a 4.20 ERA, last season with the Brewers Miley improved to a career best 2.57 ERA in 80.2 innings. A new pitch, the cutter, was widely credited for Miley’s unexpected progress, and yet few people in baseball seemed to believe this new level of performance was sustainable. Not his own team, who only trusted Miley in the playoffs as an opener. And after the season, despite earning 1.4 fWAR, no one else either, for apparently the Astros were the high bidders for his services on the free agent market, and they bought him for a song, $4.5 million.

Projection services anticipated regression this year, predicting Miley would revert to something like a 4.60 ERA, with about 0.7 fWAR. This would be more in line with what the Astros actually paid for his services.

Still Exceeding Expectations

At about the one third mark of the season, Miley has started 12 games, having pitched just 11 innings fewer than he did all last year. He has a 3.25 ERA pitching in the AL, and has already beaten forecasts with 0.8 fWAR. In 150 innings pitched since last May, Miley’s ERA is 2.88.

OK, I know I am writing for the Crawfish Boxes, and you don’t care about ERA. There’s a reason why so many people don’t trust in the new, improved Miley. Advanced stats don’t support his long term success. Miley’s xFIP and SIERA for example, (measures that attempt to evaluate a pitcher’s performance subtracting luck and defense from the equation) are about a run higher this year than his ERA, at 4.24 and 4.37 respectively. These numbers are actually lower than they were last year, so if you think he is pitching into some good luck with a 3.25 ERA, it was even more so last year. Last year his HR/9 was a ridiculous 0.33, allowing only four homers in 80 innings. No wonder people thought he was a fluke. This year it is a career high 1.43 HR/9, ten home runs in 69 innings, with a 15.7% HR/FB rate.

So one could say that Miley’s success last year was due to some good home run luck. This year that luck has turned and yet he is still producing good results, though some further regression is still indicated. But even if Miley regressed to the level of his xFIP and SIERA, he would still be pretty good, especially with the Astros’ offense. Let’s take a deeper look.

Piling Higher and Deeper

I have broken down Miley’s season into thirds, each third consisting of four games. In key areas he has shown continuous improvement. In each of these trimesters his ERA has remained steadily in the low 3’s, but xFIP has dropped from 5.00, to 4.01 to 3.75 in the last four games. Likewise SIERA has dropped from 5.07, to 4.37, to 3.74 in the last four games. His K rate has steadily climbed as well, from 12.1 %, to 20.2%, to 24,7 %. In his last game he got nine strikeouts in seven innings, his longest stretch of the season against a potent Cubs offense. Prior to that he struck out eight Red Sox in six innings. Last year Miley’s K rate was only 14.8%, and for his career it is 18.4%.

Here’s what Statcast says about Miley. Last year Miley’s wOBA (weighted on base average) was .283, but his xWOBA (expected weighted on base average) was .307. Which confirms that he was a bit lucky. This year his wOBA is an even .300, but his xWOBA is .286. The league average is .318. He is ranked 28th in the MLB in xWOBA, ahead of the likes of Chris Sale, David Price, Patrick Corbin and Clayton Kershaw.

So while Fangraphs numbers like xFIP and SIERA say Miley is out-performing peripherals, Statcast says he is actually under-performing them.

What’s up with Miley, whose fastball averages about 91, suddenly becoming a strikeout pitcher?

One New Wrinkle

When I started this article I was going to title it “Mr Hyde to Dr. Jekyl: How the Nerd Cave transformed Wade Miley.” Clever, so I thought. Trouble is, after extensive research in my favorite information sources, Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball (Pitch f/x) and Baseball Savant (Statcast) all I found was that Miley is still pretty much doing what he did last year. I did find one small difference, and I will save that for last.

These were all the parameters I checked: velocity of his pitches, location of each, movement, release point, batted ball data, spin rate (supposedly the Astros Nerd Cave can work miracles with a pitcher’s spin rate, but Miley has slightly less spin in May 2019 than he did last year)

Pitch selection is not radically different either. He did open the year throwing even more cutters than last year and fewer sinkers, but that has reverted lately.

This is the one major difference I could find between Miley 2019 and Miley 2018. And it is a familiar Astros story. He has begun throwing his four-seam fastball high in the zone. This is the four-seam distribution for 2019.

This is the distribution of the four seam in 2018.

Looking at the four-seamer in isolation, it seems this approach has mixed results for Miley. He is actually getting slightly more whiffs on the 2019 four-seamer, 13.7%, than with the 2018 variety, 11.73%. But batters are slugging it better than last year, .390 compared to .306. Two of the ten home runs surrendered have been to the four-seam, none last year.

But herein lies the transformation of Miley into more of a strikeout pitcher. According to Brooks Baseball, Miley has thrown 138 four-seamers in 2019, and these have accounted for seventeen strikeouts, only four less than the cutter. In 2018, having thrown 179 four-seamers, Miley only got 14 k’s, eight less than he got with the cutter.

So apparently the Nerd Cave has convinced Miley to take a chance and put that 91 mile per hour pitch up in the zone, tempting the batter to hit it out. Twice this year they have, but more often they have struck out. And having that high heater in the arsenal probably makes the other pitches more effective.

He’s a Keeper

So even with this new wrinkle, the point is that since he found the cutter in 2018, Miley has been a remarkably consistent pitcher whose ERA has averaged in the low threes, and even by the more pessimistic peripheral statistics, shouldn’t regress much past four runs a game. If current trends hold, he should get about 2.4 fWAR by season’s end. By today’s standards, not bad for $4.5 million. In fact, a bargain for sure.

And maybe just good enough to be the starter in a Game 4 ALCS.