The Credit Cruncher

What is double-dip?

noreply@blogger.com (jay) — Mon, 07 May 2012 10:36:00 +0000

It may sound like an option you might see on the sweets menu, but double dip is a sobering reality in the UK economy right now.

It has recently been announced that the long-anticipated double-dip recession is here - this gives us, initially, two questions to answer:
1) What exactly is a double-dip recession
2) What impact will it have on the economy

The answers are relatively simple whilst retaining the complexity that all things economic tend to gather around them. Economic terms are not deliberately 'woolly', but whoever wrongly termed economics as a science instead of an arts subject should be (in my humble and simplistic opinion) soundly whipped with their own economic model.
Recession is already defined in this post (click for the link) as being two straight quarters in which a decline in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) has been recorded. The most recent recorded recession has been blamed mainly on the Credit Crunch and in the UK, officially begun three years ago:
http://www.thecreditcruncher.com/2009/01/uk-in-recession.html
...and ended two years ago:

http://www.thecreditcruncher.com/2010/01/so-recession-is-over.htm
In real terms (spot the 'economic-speak'), the economy has been plotting a very wobbly course with tiny amounts of 'growth' being recorded and always threatening to drop straight back into decline.. When the figures for the last quarter were announced, it was the second negative figure in a row, therefore technically we are back in recession after a relatively short time of 'growth', and therefore we are in 'double-dip'.

So onto the second question... My own reading of the situation (for what it is worth) is that the economy although technically was out of recession for two years had never really established sufficient growth and therefore this latest headline announcement makes little difference to us. There is still not massive growth, everything is still very tentative although here and there, there maybe growth, in other places there is still decline to balance it out.
I think most economic observers will have to admit that an economy bumbling along with practically no growth, is pretty much the same as one that has just recorded a decline in growth as long as all the figures are so small.
To my mind, we are still in 'steady as she goes' mode whilst we wait for the emerging industries to shine through and the declining industries to reach their inevitable plateau.

Here's another question then... what happens if we come out of this and quickly into another period of decline - will it be triple-dip or double dip with a cherry on top?

Economy Update

noreply@blogger.com (jay) — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 22:52:00 +0000

The latest news is that the UK economy is managing to steer a course around the rocks of a double-dip recession. Standard & Poors have endorsed the UK by retaining their triple A rating, having previously reduced both the USA and France to double A ratings.
Although we are some way from being able to state that the economy is firmly in recovery mode, there are a few green shoots showing through. There are still going to be bouts of closures and redundancies to be endured, but the overall picture is tentatively positive.

Of course, the UK is also still 'enjoying' the extended base-rate 'holiday' as the 0.5% rate is retained for the foreseeable future. Keeping this lower rate as a long-term policy helps to reinforce the 'steady as you go' feeling that has been a feature of the UK economic recovery. Admittedly, it is not great for net investors, but I suspect that there are very few of those around at the moment..!

Credit Cards

noreply@blogger.com (jay) — Sun, 15 Apr 2012 22:25:00 +0000

Guest post

I know way too many people who abuse their credit cards, and then end up accumulating debt that is way more than they are able to handle. Thankfully, I was taught fiscal responsibility at a pretty young age, and think I have a good handle on my bills. This does not mean that I don't use my creditcard, in fact, the opposite is true. I use my credit card for most of the purchases I make. The difference between what I do and what others do is that I do not buy anything outside of my means just because I have a credit card that can delay the payments. I only buy things that I would be able to pay for in cash or using my debit card. I choose to use my credit card because, this way, I am able to accumulate points that I can use towards paying off my balance, gift certificates, hotel reservations, or even airline tickets. I always make it a point to pay off my balance in full each month, so I am never accumulating interest, which is really just a death sentence in the credit card world. This is not to say that I haven't accidentally developed a bill that was much higher than I anticipated. I always know that, even when I am really not happy about it, I have enough money to cover it somewhere. Generally I have enough in my checking account to pay the bills, but in those unfortunate circumstances where I do not, I can always transfer money from my savings account to cover the difference. I even have it set up so that if I forget to go on and pay the bill it automatically deducts from my checking account. I can see how sometimes you start to rack up your bill quickly if you are not carefully monitoring your spending, but I also have a hard time understanding how people make huge purchases that they know they do not have the money to cover with their cards. I have seen very few circumstances where that has ended well for the buyer, and I hope to avoid ever having to do that with my credit card.

Budget 2012

noreply@blogger.com (jay) — Thu, 12 Apr 2012 22:30:00 +0000

The Government have learned a lesson this year, the lesson is that if you leak all the good stuff before the budget is announced officially, the media will concentrate on all the stuff you don't want highlighted...
The Good Stuff includes an increase in the amount we can all earn before tax, a staged reduction in corporation tax, removing child benefits from higher earners (not everyone will regard this as 'good stuff'...) and new taxes for gambling and gaming machines.
The biggest 'shock reaction' was to news that pensioners are not going to continue to enjoy their previous tax breaks. In actual fact, pensioners are merely being brought in line with everyone else when it comes to tax - although it has been called a 'granny tax' and presented as pensioners losing money, it has been done in such as way that the pensioners will not enjoy increased tax allowances until they are in line with working incomes.
The other big talking point has been the removing of the top-tier 50p tax rate - said to be intended to actually increase tax revenue - time will tell whether this is true, but whatever else it is, it is certainly a bold step. All-in-all, this looks t me like a budget that gives a lot to low earners, a little to middle-earners and what looks like a boost to top earners too. Of course, it will not please pensioners, but it also manages to boost small businesses too with the reduction in corporation tax.
Time will tell whether this is a 'good' budget, but I think I am willing to concede that it is not a bad one...

Bank of England meets this week

noreply@blogger.com (jay) — Mon, 05 Mar 2012 18:28:00 +0000

Quantitative Easing will be one of the main topics on the agenda with views spilt over whether more is needed in the light of recent tentative signs of economic stability, and uncertainty over the rate of inflation and the impact of oil price rises.

Most observers are not expecting a change to the Bank Base Rate any time soon, which is great news for some house owners (me included). When pushed on when the base rate may be raised, the general view is that rates will be stable at the all time low 0.5% for at least another 18months.

QE and base rate being two of the main weapons in the Banks armoury, it looks like a economic cease-fire might be called sending a 'steady as you go' message to the markets.

President Obama shifts the blame to Europe

noreply@blogger.com (jay) — Wed, 28 Sep 2011 21:44:00 +0000

Right at the start of this post, I want to make it clear that I have generally been in favour of President Obama, from this side of the pond, he looks like a great choice for US president. Intelligent and dignified are not necessarily attributes that other recent candidates can claim as their own. However, I have to take issue with his recent attack on Europe, particularly as the whole sub-prime fiasco is firmly rooted in his own back-yard.

The left-wing view has been that huge national debt is an acceptable price to pay for the mismanagement by our banks. Cut-backs have been looked upon with disdain by the socialists as if there is a way to continue to over-inflate the economy despite the glaringly obvious fact that there is nothing left to do it with unless we sell the family silver... The balanced view is surely that we must do what we can to pay down the debt including down-sizing where the markets are proving unsustainable.
I have been unemployed, so I can empathise with those that are suffering, but the truth is that the economy was over-inflated by debt - the whole of the Western economy was simply living beyond its means, shored up by bad debts. The only fix is to try and get the economy back to a sustainable size, painful though that will undoubtedly be.

Look at it like this, let's say for a simple example that the economy is 10% over-inflated - effectively we have been living 10% beyond our means for a sustained length of time. This is supported by bad debts - in other words, there is money floating around in the economy that simply should not be there, buying goods and services that we can't actually afford - persuading employers to employ 10% more workers than are sustainable. This money is secured against property that is worth less than the value of the debt. The American (Obama) solution is to try and shore up these bad debts, ie. to try and continue the unsustainable economy to the point where defaulting on the debt becomes a very real possibility.
The irony of Obama's criticism is that countries like Greece face exactly the same problems that he himself has experienced recently. It was only a few short months ago that the US itself was staring at the possibility of defaulting on it's debt. Obama has presided over the US whilst it's credit-rating has been reduced - an achievement that hardly qualifies a man to urge the rest of the world to follow his example. The situation in Europe is serious because Economic Europe has taken weak economies under it's wing believing it has the resources to protect them. The UK is outside of the European Economic currency, but will not be immune if economic collapse comes knocking.

Even Gordon Brown understood the value of 'talking up' the economy, I doubt that Obama's outburst will shake the world, but it takes a certain arrogance to put your own political ambition for re-election ahead of the stability of the world economy. I hadn't appreciated Obama the political animal until now - I stand corrected, maybe he's not the shining example, he's a politician after all..

It remains to be seen how Europe will deal with this crisis, but the majority view of the voting public is that they don't want to bail anyone else out of debt. What the individual voters in neighbouring nations don't appreciate is that much of the debt is owed to them. I have heard fellow-Europeans saying 'let them default' without appreciating that Greece now owe EUR120bn to the IMF and the European Union - In contrast many Greeks still believe that Germany 'owes them' for the damage done in WWII, so there is a strong contingent in Greece saying 'let's default'. Ironically the position of the average man in the street in both Greece and Germany is that Greece should default. The Germans not appreciating that the debt is owed largely to them - and the Greeks not really appreciating that their government is not really in a position where they can pump money into their own economy and just not bother to pay their debtors.
Of course, it's not just the Germans who are complaining, there is a strong view in the UK that we should be exempt from further Euro-bailouts as we have our own currency to protect, but it should be made clear that the UK will suffer alongside it's European neighbours common currency or not..

More Quantatative easing on the way?

noreply@blogger.com (jay) — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 22:50:00 +0000

The Bank of England have maintained the base rate at 0.5%, resisting pressure to match the US rate and drop to 0.25%. In the light of general economic doom and gloom, more quantatative easing measures are likely to be considered although no action is planned immediately.

In short, all the signs are that any previously perceived recovery has been long forgotten in the shadow of a potential double-dip recession.

Double Dip Recession?

noreply@blogger.com (jay) — Mon, 05 Sep 2011 21:39:00 +0000

It seems that everybody is now talking us towards a double-dip recession which is probably worth a quick explanation.

Firstly, we need to understand that recession is in place when a national economy records a drop in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for two consecutive quarters. Historically, this was announced in the UK in January 2009. A year later (Jan 2010), and the UK was officially out of recession and on course to build a slow recovery - however there is a danger that following on the heels of the fledgling recovery is a second period during which the GDP drops sufficiently for the economy to officially enter a second episode of recession before recovery has fully taken root.

At the end of the day, whether recession is announced (again) or not, the delicate balance of the economy of course is the real issue and there is little doubt that we are precariously balanced. What is more difficult to assess is what the long term prospects are.

Certainly, the economy has taken a big hit, equally certain is that the politicians will do their utmost to introduce a quick fix for their own political good, but the continuing existence of the western economies is dependent on some careful steering of the individual nations through difficult waters, and taking some measures that will not be wildly popular with the voters.

Call it double-dip, call it credit crunch or call it a depression - the name is not really important, the only thing that matters is that those with power realise that they need to put aside their personal agendas and concentrate on keeping their national economy solvent.

The recession is over

The recession begins

UK GDP falls

Interest rates could stay this low until after 2012

noreply@blogger.com (jay) — Wed, 10 Aug 2011 09:20:00 +0000

Financial commentators are starting to speculate whether interest rates will move at all next year (2012). This implication being that it could be 2013 before we see any chance in this unprecedented low base rate. The UK has never seen interest rates held at such a low rate, to sustain this rate for the forseeable future is testament to how seriously the BoE take the crisis, it also indicated that the crisis is far from over.
Nett investors will be pulling their hair out - those with a mortgage will be delighted to hear the news. Those with tracker-type mortgages will be able to continue with thier miniscule repayment rates - even those with fixed rates should be able to negotiate a better deal as the long-term prospects start to look more certain. I would urge those who are making good savings to consider making over-payments (after consultation with a financial advisor of course..) to lower the principle amount of the mortgage. This has the effect of lowering repayments in the long term, and is especially important if, like me, you have an endowment mortgage that will not materialise into a pot big enough to pay the mortgage off in full.
I have used the principal of retaing the level of payments that we were paying about three years ago even though the actual interest payment has dropped dramatically. The extra we are paying is reducing the original debt (principal) which is good for two reasons:
It means the amount raised by the endowment will be closer to the actual amount owed
As the principal is being paid off, the amount of interest keeps falling even when the interest rate is steady.
Of course, one has to bear in mind that the endowment itself will grow in a very restricted rate during this time of low interest, but at least by over-paying whatever happens, we will be doing our best to overcome any of the negative effects. One other thing to bear in mind is that when rates eventually climb again, all the overpayer has to do is reduce the overpayment to maintain the same standard of living. The temptation is to spend the 'extra' money released by low interest rates - which will mean an adjustment of spending patterns when the rates come back up - an adjustment I would rather not have to cope with..

Euro-zone troubles

noreply@blogger.com (jay) — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 16:09:00 +0000

In what can only be described as a short-term measure, the Central European Bank is preparing to buy up Italian and Spanish debts in an attempt to stabilise the Euro. This comes in the wake of the down-grading of the US credit-rating - which to be fair, is nowhere near as bad as actually defaulting on debt re-payments.
However, the market is jittery and some steady nerves are needed along with some strong leadership. Like it or not, you cannot spend your way out of debt, and the over-spending of recent years is starting to reveal itself.
The parallels with personal spending are obvious, we the consumers have been overspending, this has triggered government and municipal overspending, and once the debt starts to get to the unmanageable stage, some hard-hitting cuts have to be made whether you are talking about a household or as a national economy.
Member nations of the European economy must face cost-cutting head on, jobs will be forfeit as over-spending produces unrealistc demand for employment - when the spending is curbed, the jobs will go. Of course this is not a perfect model as the fallout is not limited to the specific over-spend areas, the effect will be economy wide.
It has long been my belief that much of this overspending is a result of the over-riding appetite for consumable gadgets that is prevalent in the Western economies. However, demand is so insistent, that consumer choice may dictate that gadget-related jobs can be sustained and more fundamental consumer goods manufacturing and marketing might be under threat. I'm not saying that people prefer iPads to food, but somewhere along the line, gadgets are becoming more of a necessity in the public consciousness and less of a luxury. Personally I am quite sure that this is not a good thing when along with the desire for the gadget, comes the likelihood that in 6 months time, the same piece of kit will be on eBay for a quarter of it's original price, sold to partially-fund the purchase of the next generation must-have kit (which, it turns out, the consumer can ill-afford).
The only good thing to come out of the uncertainty (if you are NOT a nett investor), is that interest rates remain abnormally low, and the BoE have not the stomach to raise them and the mortgages of half the nation along with them..

Time to remortgage

noreply@blogger.com (jay) — Sat, 09 Jul 2011 08:50:00 +0000

Mortgage rates are about as low as anyone can remember right now as lenders seek to entice home owners with attractive interest rates. With the slow-down in the housing market this is hardly surprising. Normally you would expect lower house prices to attract house buyers almost regardless of the mortgage rates. Sellers are seemingly holding out for higher prices and just not selling at the rate that demand dictates, therefore the market has slowed in it's activity. In order to keep the market going, lenders are having to offer great deals.

What this means, is that if you don't have a tracker mortgage, you may want to remortgage to take advantage of the low rates.

Bank base rate is still holding at 0.5%, so there has never been a better time to remortgage - this rate has persisted for nearly two and a half years now and shows no indication of rising before the end of 2011.

Some fixed deals are available for about 3 or 4%, depending on the term of the mortgage, the longer term, the higher the rate indicating the expected course that interest rates will take. Be warned though, unless you will be making an interest saving of £1000, the cost of the remortgage will be higher than the savings you can make.

There are tracker deals about too, but unless you got yourself a tracker BEFORE the rates dropped so low, this is more of a gamble. Those who managed to secure a tracker before the rate dropped, may have one that tracks about 1% or even less above base rate, however base rate is so low now, that you will be lucky to find one that tracks less than 2% above.

If you are thinking of remortgaging, by all means take a look at all the offers out there, but also get the advice of a good independent advisor. At the same time, don't be frightened to tell the advisor exactly what you want - take a wish-list with you, and ask the advisor to find a mortgage that fits your requirements.

Twice I was persuaded (against my better judgment) to go with fixed mortages, until I insisted last time that I wanted a lifetime tracker mortgage. Again it cost £1000 (I just hate those sign-on fees - which is why I insisted on a LIFETIME tracker), but we have made tremendous savings since the rate went so low. This has allowed me to overpay my mortgage for the last two years. There is a kind of financial karma in this since we have a endowment mortgage which is unlikely to pay off the loan when it matures - overpaying means there will be less of a loan to pay off. I reckon we have paid off about 6 or 7% off the principal in the last two years through overpayment, another year of this and we will have paid off 10%.

It goes to show that no-one knows what will happen over the term of a twenty-five year mortgage - it tells you to be wary of the markets, but also tells you that whilst you are on the swings now, the roundabouts are just around the corner...

Interest rates remain stable

noreply@blogger.com (jay) — Fri, 06 May 2011 16:08:00 +0000

Despite a growing concern that interest rates will be on the way up, the Bank of England have kept UK base interest rate at 0.5%. This is great news for those with a tracker mortgage, not so good if you are a net investor...
I am continuing with my philosophy of over-paying my mortgage whilst the going is good, in the hope that it will stand me in good stead when my endowment matures. Whatever happens, I am quite sure that it will not do me any harm at all to try and lower the amount I will have to pay back to the bank in about 10 years time...
I anticipate that further measures will be needed before I can be sure that I can cover the full cost of the mortgage, but at least the impact will have been lessened by this bonus period of low interest rates.
The reason that the BoE have not raised interest rates is the continuing doubts about whether the UK economy is strong enough to accept higher rates. Whilst we have avoided double-dip recession this time, there are still concerns that GDP is not growing as was hoped.

RBS still happily handing out bonuses

noreply@blogger.com (jay) — Tue, 19 Apr 2011 13:16:00 +0000

UK Financial Investments (UKFI), which manages the Government's bank assets, is expected to give its approval of RBS CEO Stephen Hester's (near £8m) pay packet at the group's annual meeting in Edinburgh. Mr Hester took over the job from Fred Goodwin in 2008, and has been awarded an additional £4.5m potential shares windfall on top of his £2m annual bonus and £1.2 million salary. He and eight of his top team will share a bonus and shares windfall totalling £28m for its 2010 financial year.

RBS is 83% owned by the taxpayer following the bank's near collapse at the height of the financial crisis, and is expected to face wider shareholder anger when the remuneration motion (of almost 400% of salary) comes to a vote.

Identity Theft

noreply@blogger.com (jay) — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 11:34:00 +0000

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IdentityHawk proactively identifies risks for it's members by monitoring chat-rooms and databases where suspicious activity around unique identifying data has been detected.
Data such as names, addresses, phone numbers, Social Security numbers, and much more are protected via this system.

Whilst there are always those who will be happy to carry out online transactions and not worry too much about having their peronal details compromised, there is a reluctance by much of the online community to expose themselves to the risk of identity theft. A protection service as offered by IdentityHawk offers peace of mind to even the most cautious of individuals. IdentityHawk even offers $1m insurance to it's members as part of it's comprehensive package.

'Tame' budget forecast

noreply@blogger.com (jay) — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 13:14:00 +0000

There is unlikley to be any surprises from George Osbornes budget as he delivers his 'budget for growth'. There is talk of raising the tax threshold by £600, which is worth about £45 per year... Slightly more interesting is the speculation that the government may push for National Insurance to be integrated into income tax. The difficulty here though, is that there are significant numbers of people paying NI who don't pay tax, the NI payments entitle them to benefits and state pension should they need them.

There will be small movements on fuel duty, first reports coming out of Westminster suggest a cut of 1p in duty from this evening, most of the rest of the budget has been aimed at encouraging investment - or maybe just not discouraging investment... some changes to gift aid to encourage giving, more money to be spent tackling tax-avoidence.

No doubt a fuller picture will emerge soon...

Loans

noreply@blogger.com (jay) — Tue, 22 Mar 2011 20:28:00 +0000

With the Bank of England base interest rates keeping low, it is still a good time to get a short -term loan although it is worth noting that a low base-rate does not mean that ALL interest rates are automatically reduced to such a low level.

Specialist short-term lenders still charge a premium for their services because they are specifically addressing the need for rapidly approved loans for the duration of just a few short weeks or months.

Such services are offered by payday loan lenders uk and frequently are able to approve a loan automatically online via a website. Although payday loans in the uk would not be the solution to all lending needs, they may be ideal for a short term where a payment is expected imminently, hence the name 'pay day loans'.

Project Merlin

noreply@blogger.com (jay) — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 01:00:00 +0000

The idea of Project Merlin held some hope of holding the banks to account for the misery they have spread through the economy, although in reality the measures could never be as punitive as the larger population would like.
We rely too much on our financial trading to make it unprofitable, it is one of the few remaining sectors that the modern UK now excels at...

What concessions have been drawn out of Project Merlin?

To lend more money in 2011
To lend more to small businesses
To pay less in bonuses than they did last year
To be more transparent about their pay packages
To make a greater contribution to regional economies and society.

Who has signed up?

HSBC
Barclays
Royal Bank of Scotland
Lloyds Banking Group

Santander have also been involved in the project

To add in some specifics, the banks that have signed up will commit to making £190bn of credit available to businesses in 2011, up by £11bn, £76bn will be made available specifically to smaller businesses.

The banks will also provide £200m capital to David Cameron's Big Society Bank, which is supposed to finance community projects, and they will provide an extra £1bn over three years to the Business Growth Fund, which aims to help small business in hard-pressed parts of the UK.

And bonuses?

To be fair the banks have agreed some realistic controls, but there is not going to be a huge reversal of the bonus culture. Millions will still be earned by the few in salaries and bonuses

Was it worth the effort?

The agreement is a realistic 'moral victory', something was required politically, and this was the result. It will not make tremendous waves through the financial sector, and as one of the leading 'industries' of the UK, it makes little sense to 'hamstring' the banks. The banks have been in the spotlight, they created much of the mess, they have been the first to see a turn-around in fortunes. It would make little economic sense to stamp on the growth that is now starting to show. On the other hand, the banks have been caught out, and made to publicly acknowledge their part in the financial crisis - it's time to move on.

Spectacular Bank Failures

noreply@blogger.com (jay) — Sun, 23 Jan 2011 14:14:00 +0000

Economist John Vickers, chairman of the Independent Commission on Banking has slammed the British banking sector in a speech to the London School of Economics, he said:

"Ultimately, financial risks have to be borne, and in a market system they should not be borne by the taxpayer providing a generous safety net."

This at a time where banks feel they are ready to start paying themselves huge bonuses again, many CEO's already raking in millions in so-called 'performance-related' payments. The question that the nation is asking is "what do you give back when your performance is so dismal that the nation ends up footing the biggest tax bill ever generated?", the answer is of course, a resounding 'nothing' - even those who have skulked away in disgrace have already feathered their nests to such an extent that they are in danger of choking on their own hollow affluence.

In the meantime, the nation suffers with cuts to services in every sector, industries losing workers and long-established companies failing. Whilst many will regard this as just 'politics' or 'economics', for some this is their life... Some families will suffer hardships, real hardships - the cause of which can (whether it be directly or indirectly) be traced back to foolhardy, gung-ho actions of the financial institutions.

Admittedly, the economy had become over-inflated and therefore some workers owe a few years wages to the over-inflation, nonetheless, I believe on balance, it is likely that there has been more harm done than good.

Interest rates set to rise

noreply@blogger.com (jay) — Thu, 23 Dec 2010 09:28:00 +0000

It looks like the Bank Of England is trying to prepare the public for a rise in interest rates back up to what it feels is a normal level - which will mean the rates returning to a level of about 5% from the current 0.5%...

BoE official Paul Fisher is quoted as saying:

"...what we need to do is to trigger the mindset in people that that's where rates will eventually go back to,"

As if 'people' were stupid enough to think that this artificially low figure is the norm... I would have thought that the message would have been loud and clear if the BoE simply raised the level by 0.25% or 0.5% rather than just talked about it... If they were worried about 'people' panicking, they could have always stated that their 'target' figure is 5% at the same time as announcing an actual raise.

The way this has been done makes it sound like they are unsure of the impact of raising the rate and want to get an idea of what the reaction will be before they do it. The likelihood is that the raise will be implemented in small steps, but no indication whatsoever is given over how long this will take.

The background to policy changes are a relatively static economy showing little growth, a low sterling market value and creeping inflation - with the VAT hike about to strike, one must question the impact this statement by Paul Fisher will have on the householder. There is not much in the economic climate that is going to encourage householders to part with their cash (other than Christmas, which as far as I am aware is not as a result of Government policy..)

Personally, I think we are still in uncertain territory here in economic terms with the threat of the dreaded 'double-dip' still a possibility. I am making the most of the low interest rates by overpaying my mortgage, not by consuming more goods - any change in the interest rate for me will just mean an adjustment to my overpayment.

£7bn from UK to bail out Ireland

noreply@blogger.com (jay) — Mon, 22 Nov 2010 10:34:00 +0000

Chancellor George Osborne has said that Britain was prepared to commit seven billion to the Irish bail-out plan. The EU and IMF agreed on Sunday to help bail out Ireland with loans to tackle its banking and budget crisis in a bid to protect Europe's financial stability.

"What we have committed to do is to obviously be partners as shareholders in the IMF in an international rescue of the Irish economy,"

Osborne told BBC Radio 4....

"But we have also made a commitment to consider a bilateral loan that reflects the fact we are not part of the Euro ... but Ireland is our very closest economic neighbour."

Osborne was questioned about reports that Britain was going to contribute around seven billion pounds to Ireland, he replied:

"It's around that (figure), it's in the order of billions not tens of billions but the details of the entire package, not just the UK contribution, but the euro zone and IMF contribution, that is all being worked out as we speak and we should by the end of the month have the details on that."

Osborne was keen to stress that Britain should not have to provide further help to Ireland or any other Euro zone countries that got into trouble. However this contribution by Britain is causing trouble at home amid an atmosphere of spending cuts - there are claims that this bail out makes a mockery of the hardships Britain will endure as a result self-imposed austerity measures. The criticism is heightened by claims that this is a problem that arguably should be resolved primarily by the Euro-currency countries.

Short-term debt

noreply@blogger.com (jay) — Sun, 21 Nov 2010 11:03:00 +0000

As the economic crisis reaches a new stage, many individuals may suffer from unemployment and loss of earnings in the coming months. In many cases, workers may be forced to take lower-paid jobs and be forced into debt whilst trying to adjust to the new level of income.

In most cases, significant changes to life-style will be required, others may consider a short-term debt solutions like pay day loans. There are problems with this type of borrowing in that it can be a relatively expensive way to borrow and may result in several loans being taken out without the principal being effectively cleared. This type of debt should be cleared promptly and may require payday loan consolidation.

You may need payday loan help if your borrowing has got out of hand, and the only long-term solution is to seriously curb your spending. If you are experiencing problems with short-term (expensive) debt, you should make this a priority. Take an overview of your total income and outgoings and make adjustments that will allow you to love within your means.

Interest Rate warning!

noreply@blogger.com (jay) — Tue, 26 Oct 2010 21:43:00 +0000

Official figures just released show that the economy is growing at its fastest rate for a decade. Growth over the past six months reached 2 per cent, the fastest pace of expansion over two consecutive quarters since 2000, according to the Office for National Statistics .

Economists warned that the 'good news' could be result in interest rates rising earlier than expected. Andrew Sentance, a member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee, said "I am in favour of gradually moving interest rates up from their very low level which I think can be done without disrupting business or consumer confidence."

Interest rates have been at historically low levels since the credit crisis took hold, with the Bank of England keeping rates at 0.5 per cent since March 2009. It had been previously reported that there would be little chance of a change before the end of next year, but on the back of yesterday's strong growth figures some economists are now predicting a base rate of at least 1 per cent by the end of 2011.

As always with interest rate rises, the bad news for borrowers is good news for savers. The majority of savings accounts currently on the market fall some way short of offering customers a decent return on investment. Recently I came across a saver who had £11return on a three year bond of £3000.

David Kern, chief economist at the British Chambers of Commerce, reminded us that we have not yet seen the real impact of the Governments deficit cutting measures. True to form, the coalition are claiming the upturn as a result of their actions whilst the previous administration claim that this is as the belated result of their actions... The truth is that few people (from either party) predicted these most recent results, and at the end of the day, the economy wends its own merry way regardless of those that believe they are at the helm of national affairs.

Inflation Steady at 3.1%

noreply@blogger.com (jay) — Tue, 12 Oct 2010 09:59:00 +0000

Inflation has continued to exceed the Bank of Englands target of 2%, standing at over 3% since July in line with market expectations.

Lower prices for air fares, petrol and second-hand cars were offset by rising costs for clothing, footwear, food and drinks. For individual families, the worrying trend indicated here is the fact that 'luxuries' are getting cheaper, necessities are becoming more expensive...

The BoE have continued to hold the base interest rate at 0.5% (as they have for the last 19 months), but opted against pumping out more cash. Nevertheless, the threat of the return of 'Quantitative Easing' is ever-present. To date, the bank has injected £200 billion into the economy, by purchasing government bonds and high-quality private sector assets to boost lending.

Base Rate holds at 0.5%

noreply@blogger.com (jay) — Mon, 09 Aug 2010 10:34:00 +0000

The record low rate of 0.5% is set to stay for another 12 months or so according to best estimates. It is felt that 2011 could see a rise, but it is far too early to make a realistic prediction.

This is good news for variable rate mortgage owners, but I guess a bit of a sickener for those with a fixed rate, as it looks unlikely that they will get any benefit from their fixed rate for quite a while. Of course, most new mortgages are fixed rate as the bank have no wish to pass on the benefits of the Bank of England base rate. This in itself is a topic worthy of a great deal of debate....

For those who are benefiting from a variable rate, my advice is to overpay your mortgage (subject to advice from your properly qualified advisor of course!!) if you can. I switched to a variable rate mortgage shortly before the financial crisis took hold, so my repayments are extremely low. However I have taken the step of deliberately paying a similar rate to what I was paying before the crisis in an effort to pay off more of the principal debt.

The uncertainty around what will happen to the rate is heightened by the uncertainty about the knock-on effects of Government cutbacks which must be made by this new administration.

The mood for now seems to be 'steady as she goes' as we launch our economic ship into uncharted and potentially stormy seas...

Our 'shallow' economy

noreply@blogger.com (jay) — Wed, 14 Jul 2010 11:49:00 +0000

I don't really want to come across all left wing and anti-capitalist, but there is a worrying element to the drivers behind the Western economy that may indicate that it is becoming unsustainable.

In thinking about what drives us to earn and consume, it is becoming clear that it is 'unsustainable' consumer behaviour that drives larger and larger sections of our economy. These can be illustrated by the clamour to posess the latest 'Apple' product whether it be a phone (never knowingly advertised as a device for making phone calls of course..) computer, or media player. It is also illustrated by our taste in transport, ever faster, slicker, uber-designed capsules for transporting us around the globe - in reality used for dropping the kids off at school and getting in the shopping. Do we need to spend between £10,000 and £20,000 for a main vehicle let alone a 'second' car that will be the kids taxi and motorised shopping cart?
Have you also noticed that a TV used to cost a little over £100, yet now you can get a 'bargain' widescreen HD-ready TV for just £500?

Don't get me wrong, I am not knocking consumerism, I am a 'victim' and active participant... I am trying to point out that one day we might wake up to the reality, and stop buying these luxuries, at which point, our entire economy is in danger. The additional point to make is that the products themselves are contributing to the demise of the species. I don't have figures for the damage done to the environment by cars alone, but you don't have to be a greenpeace protester to be aware of these facts:

We have too many cars
Cars are bad for the environment
Any 'convenience' factor of having access to a motor vehicle is now surely seriously outweighed by the damage it does to our planet.

The problem is that the voices of reason will not be heard above the clamour for the latest gizmo or gadget that is going to make one individuals life so much better at the expense of everyone else. This is where democracy fails us, no politician can speak up against the manufacturers that fuel the economy. The battle can only be won, one consumer at a time...if we all stopped doing it tomorrow, the economy would stall catastrophically - every great 'empire' has it's weakness in the end - I believe that this is the major weakness in the Western World, our rapidly increasing desire for bigger, better, faster, more advanced 'stuff' will end up with consumers eventually questioning their own sanity.