The Cubicle Report

Why the Tampa Bay Rays Must Fail

2008-10-20T00:58:00.004-07:00

Looking through the history of Major League Baseball, one would be hard-pressed to find a franchise more atrocious than the 1998-2007 Tampa Bay ~~Devil~~ Rays. In the pantheon of awful teams, the Rays found themselves with the likes of the 1999 Los Angeles Clippers, the 1992 Ottawa Senators, and essentially the entire collective existence of the Detroit Lions. Only once in their decade-long history had they not finished dead last within their division, and at no point did they ever lose less than 90 games in a season. Now, a mere one year removed from the farce that was their history, here they sit on the precipice of a World Championship. As my mind continues to try to wrap itself around this fact, I continue to find myself returning to the same thought.

They must be stopped.

Is it fun to root for the underdog? Of course it is. It gives every fan hope that, someday, they too could see their team drenched in champagne at season’s end. And it is always enjoyable to watch the fans of disposed favorites spend the offseason attempting to rationalize why it was okay to lose. After all, the popularity of March Madness is entirely based on these two points (see: George Mason and Duke, respectively). But there is something inherently wrong with the prospect of memorabilia adorned with the words “World Champion Tampa Bay Rays”.

Now, to help explain, I should probably add one small but significant fact – I am a Chicago Cubs fan. Yes, the same Chicago Cubs that just spent six months compiling the best record in their league, only to be swept out of October in three games. The same Chicago Cubs that now find their championship drought at an even 100 years. The team has been forced to watch the crowning of the champion on television since before there was television… nearly before there was even radio! And yet, here we sit as a fan base, preparing ourselves for yet another upstart to hoist a banner to the rafters before us.

We’ve been here before. Back in 1997, the Florida Marlins took home the title after a grueling five year wait. And just to rub it in, they went ahead and dismantled their entire team, rebuilt, and then stormed through Wrigley Field in 2003 to win a second championship, matching the Cubs franchise total in a mere eleven years. The Arizona Diamondbacks capped their fourth year in existence with a thrilling World Series victory over the Yankees in 2001. Even the Colorado Rockies joined in the fun last year, making their first Series before eventually falling to Boston.

For the most part, those were painful to watch, but at least we had company. The Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox each had droughts nearly as long at the Cubs, and Red Sox fans are more than familiar with the concept of curses. But one by one, they each left us. During Boston’s magical run of 2004, numerous Cubs fans expressed their joy in watching the Red Sox shed their curse, thinking that it would somehow be our turn next. They felt relieved; I felt abandoned. They did not understand why it did not make me feel better. I explained that throughout the entire comeback against New York, I found myself rooting for the hated Yankees. Why? Because a season that ends in a Yankees championship is like a season that never happened… and a season that never happened meant that we were not one step closer to being the sole exception to the law of averages. Of course, a year later, the White Sox etched their name onto the trophy and scratched their name off the list of historical misery as well. And then we were officially alone, left to watch teams with no history, no character, and no emotional connection shed tears of joy upon the championship trophy, a scene with which we could not empathize.

For a true sports fan, there is nothing quite as sacred as your team’s first championship of your lifetime. It is a journey you take, the ebb and flow of fandom pulling you in directions you never expected. You, as a fan, feel as if you deserve the championship just as much, if not more, than the team itself. At times you cheered; at times you walked away in frustration. But through the entire struggle, you were never indifferent.

And that brings us back to Tampa Bay. A year ago, they produced the worst record in the league, which had been preceded by nine years of near-identical results – only nobody cared enough to notice, or noticed enough to care. Now? World Series. Suddenly, the kid who had been eating glue in the corner for the past decade is acing the SATs and dating the head cheerleader. Meanwhile, we Cubs fans are left, alone, to wonder how we got bypassed again.

Now, could that be us next year? Maybe, but I have 100 years to tell me it won’t be. After all, this could have been the year. But it wasn’t. Instead, I am forced to watch a team with nary a fan base continue to inch closer to the goal that has eluded us for a century. I am forced to watch a team that thinks that its mere decade-long struggle with wins and apathy may finally be over. I am forced to watch a team that now elicits one simple response…

Go Phillies.

Apologies for the Lack of Posts

2008-10-20T00:49:00.002-07:00

With apologies to my loyal reader(s), I must say that, not surprisingly, graduate school has seemed to take up a large chunk of my time, thus causing me to fall behind in my posts here. Nevertheless, I still intend to write whenever I can (and whenever a topic comes to mind)...

As a side note, I am currently writing for The Exchange, the UCLA Anderson student paper, and trying to interject more sports into the conversation whenever possible. In those instances, I plan on posting the pre-edited-for-length versions here. So that's something, right?

Again, apologies for the recent lack of posts, but please still check back often. It just might be your lucky day and there will be something to distract you from work, which is essentially why you're most likely here anyways...

NFL Scorecard - Week 3 Predictions

2008-09-20T17:52:00.005-07:00

So much for getting off on the right foot...

After starting the season with double-digit wins, my luck decided to take a turn for the worse, as I completely tanked last week. Good thing nobody actually uses (or even reads) this for gambling purposes...

Well, I'm getting to this a bit later than usual this week. For those of you who know me, you are aware that I started my grad school orientation this week, which surprisingly, or maybe not so surprisingly, takes up a whole lotta time during the week. But I'm here now, ready to either turn it around... or continue on my downward spiral of awful picks. Again, hopefully nobody's actually putting any weight to these...

Atlanta (-5.5) vs Kansas City - Um, next time, can I please be made aware of the fact that Tyler Thigpen is the backup quarterback on this team? I never thought I'd long for the days of Damon Huard. I'm guessing that makes it me and the entire Chiefs fan base... Well, Thigpen looked awful against Oakland so, good luck on your first start, kid... I'm going with the Falcons.

Buffalo (-9) vs Oakland - Okay, Bills, I'm on board. Now don't let me down. I think it's safe to say that the Raiders will be facing a team that's a bit better than last week. Darren McFadden definitely showed why the Raiders chose him last April, but the Bills have a nice running back of their own, and a lot more on both sides of the ball than Oakland.

Tennessee (-5.5) vs Houston - Am I the only one that feels that the Titans will be better with the constant Vince Young drama/development they've had the last couple years? No? Okay then, we're in agreement. The Texans did essentially have a bye week last week, but I wouldn't say it was a typical bye week where they could use both weeks to game plan against the Titans. So on equal footing, this one goes to Tennessee.

New York Giants (-13) vs Cincinnati - Until Carson Palmer shows himself as a competent quarterback again, I can't go for Cincy under any circumstances. He was once a quarterback with all the talent in the world, lighting the league on fire. Then a freak play tears his ACL and he hasn't been the same. How worried do you think Patriots fans are right now...?

Washington (-3) vs Arizona - This would make five straight favorites for me. That's never a good sign. But the Redskins finally came alive last week in their win over the Saints. Granted, the Saints don't exactly have a stellar defense, but Arizona doesn't exactly have a stellar team either. I still think Washington would win the NFC West, and I guess here's their first test.

Miami (+13) at New England - So let me get this straight... the Patriots scored only 19 points against a team that beat the Dolphins and are now giving 13 points to Miami? I guess Vegas doesn't have a lot of confidence in the Miami offense. Not exactly off-base there, but it still seems like a large spread for a team still trying to find its identity.

Chicago (-3) vs Tampa Bay - The Bears, as I always expect them to do at this point, choked one away against Carolina last week. So why am I going with them this week? Because I'm apparently an idiot... But I'm a loyal idiot, I guess. Just ignore the fact that I've gone against them the last two weeks.

Minnesota (-3) vs Carolina - Speaking of Carolina, can they make it three comebacks in a row? I'm guessing no, but I also thought the Vikings would knock off the Colts last week. And what I've learned is that "close" isn't "correct". I think this might be another situation like the Titans where Gus Frerotte might actually make them play better, not because he's more skilled, but he's more known, and the offense and defense won't be sitting there wondering if they can overcome their quarterback. They'll just go out and play.

St. Louis (+9) at Seattle - Following last week's theory of never going with an NFC West team giving more than 7 points, I'm going with the Rams this week. The Rams are still terrible, and I think they'll lose, but in this division, they all suck...

San Francisco (-4.5) vs Detroit - Speaking of sucking, here's San Francisco and Detroit! Is it just me or are there a lot of horrendous matchups early this season? I guess whenever Detroit is involved, that pretty much screws up the appeal of any matchup... They've fallen behind 21-0 in both games this season, which to those unfamiliar with football, is not a good thing... The 49ers may come from the NFC West, but I think Detroit is an honorary member of that division this season.

New Orleans (+5) at Denver - Every year, there's a team that I always miscalculate but consistently pick thinking that they'll turn it around. And every year, there's a team that I always miscalculate but consistently pick against them thinking that they'll come back to earth. I think those teams might be the Saints and Broncos this year, respectively. And that explains this pick...

Pittsburgh (+3) at Philadelphia - With apologies to my roommate, who is a huge Eagles fan and one of my few consistent readers, I've gotta go with Pittsburgh this week. I like Philadelphia, but there has to be some sort of emotional letdown this weekend, doesn't there? I mean, they just took on their arch rivals in an instant-classic Monday night game, then have to turn it around in six days and take on their intra-state rival, who, by the way, is 2-0? Just seems like a lot to me.

Indianapolis (-6) vs Jacksonville - The Colts showed life last week. The Jaguars continued to struggle. The Colts still own this division until proven otherwise...

Cleveland (+2) at Baltimore - The Browns offense has scored a total of 16 points in two weeks. This is why I didn't touch Derek Anderson during my fantasy draft this year. They were bound to come down from last season, now that they're not a surprise, but there still is too much talent on the offensive side of the ball to not still compete with the lower-level teams in the league. I'm looking at you, Baltimore... It's strength vs. strength in this matchup, with the Browns offense going up against the Ravens defense... and weakness vs. weakness on the other side... Sounds like a close game to me.

Dallas (-3) at Green Bay - I hate when my two fantasy running backs go against each other in a week, like I have with Barber and Grant in this game. Unless the game is ultra close, one team will be throwing by the end, which essentially limits one of the two by mid-third quarter. How does that affect this game? Well, it doesn't, but I just wanted to vent...

New York Jets (+8.5) at San Diego - You know the Chargers are going to turn it on at some point. You just know it. But is it this week? Is it next week? Will they show signs and squeek out a win before starting to blow things open? I don't know the answer to those, but I know this is Favre's first MNF game with the Jets, and against a wobbly Chargers team, that spread is too much for #4.

Last Week: 4-10-1
Overall: 14-16-1

NFL Scorecard - Week 2 Predictions

2008-09-12T20:53:00.003-07:00

As I was watching Aaron Rodgers jump into the crowd Monday night in Lambeau, I thought back to the weekend of games... Tom Brady going down, Peyton Manning losing at home to the Bears, Shawne Merriman out for the year... It made me realize that this season is wide open to anybody who wants it. My mind continued to ponder the scenarios that may play out until I came to a frightening thought...

What if the Packers play the Jets in the Super Bowl?

Likely? Well, no. But it's safe to say that the Jets' path to the playoffs got a wee bit easier after Week 1, despite a shaky win against a bad Miami team. And it's safe to say that the Packers, with a solid running game and stout defense, will be battling it out for the division. So once both teams are in the playoffs, you never know. Just look at what's happened the last several years.

So getting back to my point... would there ever have been a Super Bowl more annoyingly hyped than a Packers-Jets matchup? Favre's old team against his new team. All the arguments about whether the Packers were right to trade Favre would be analyzed (read: over-analyzed) for two weeks. And you thought you heard too much Favre-talk this off-season... I don't know if I'd be able to handle it, although the networks would be falling all over themselves with stories. And worst of all... one of those teams would have to actually win the game. Okay, let's not think about that for now.

On to the picks...

Kansas City (-3) vs Oakland - The Raiders are even worse off than I thought. They made the Broncos have confidence in themselves to have a good season... now that's pretty bad. The Chiefs may not be good, but they do get to play this one at home, which should be enough to handle Oakland. Is there really anything else that needs to be said about this gem of a game?

Tennessee (+1) at Cincinnati - Vince Young... where to begin. Depending on who you believe, Young either spent the last week contemplating whether he should even be here on Earth, or it was all just a Three's Company-esque misunderstanding. Either way, I don't see the Bengals being able to stop the Titans' running game (that's faster than Joe Flacco, by the way...), and Carson Palmer looked absolutely dreadful last week. I can't believe I'm picking Kerry Collins on the road, but I told you it's a crazy season...

Minnesota (+2) vs Indianapolis - So my AFC final four of Indy, New England, San Diego, and Jacksonville isn't looking too good all of a sudden. If the Colts drop to 0-2, I think everybody within the Pittsburgh area will begin their search for hotel rooms in January. And the way the Colts looked on Sunday night, I think they will fall again. They looked disjointed, which can happen when the focal point of the team missing so much time in the off-season. Minnesota has a better defense than the Bears and a better running game, plus they're at home. Sounds like a winning setup to me.

New Orleans (pk) at Washington - Having Colston out hurts both the Saints and my fantasy team, as Brees will need to find his yards and touchdowns elsewhere for a while. I don't think he'll have any trouble finding them against Washington, however, as they looked rather scattered against the Giants on opening night. Granted, they've had over a week to prepare, but Jason Campbell has had over several years to prepare and that hasn't really seemed to help him too much at this point either...

Green Bay (-3) at Detroit - So... the team that handled a popular preseason pick on Monday night against a team that got blown out by a team starting a rookie quarterback and a running back carrying the load for the first time... Yeah, I wonder how this one is going to turn out. The Packers looked as good as I expected, while the Lions looked even worse (somehow). This one shouldn't even be close. Ryan Grant, my fantasy team thanks you ahead of time...

Carolina (-3) vs Chicago - I have no reason to go against the Bears this week other than I'm not letting myself buy into the hype until we're well into the season. So the Bears are on a high after beating a premier AFC team on the road? Um, Chicago? I'd like to introduce you to Carolina. Yeah, they did the same thing last week...

New York Giants (-8) at St. Louis - Well, so much for my "the Rams are dangerous when healthy" theory. That's pretty much shot. I still don't trust Eli, but the Giants defense will run over the Rams offensive line and Plaxico and the 14 running backs on New York will all get their numbers in this one.

Jacksonville (-5.5) vs Buffalo - Welcome back to the AFC, Buffalo. This is no longer the NFC West, and I think the Bills will find that out this week. I'm hoping the Jaguars' failure in Week 1 was more the product of never playing the Titans well. Although if I'm wrong (and there's a high probability of that), then my AFC finalist list is going to need a much-needed updating.

Atlanta (+7.5) at Tampa Bay - Brian Griese is back! I'm so excited... It can't be a good thing when I trust a quarterback with 60 minutes of experience under his belt more so than a veteran with 60 years. What's that? Brian Griese is only 33? I don't believe you... Well, whether he's 33 or 83, I still wouldn't want him under center for my team, especially after losing to one divisional opponent already and desperately needing a win to avoid an 0-2 start. So much for the Bucs' quarterback depth, huh?

San Francisco (+7) at Seattle - No team from the NFC West should ever, ever be giving 7 points. Ever. This game may turn out to be a blowout, but you tell me who's going to blow out whom. A couple turnovers either way and one of these teams could be coasting to easy victory. But couldn't you see either of these teams racking up the giveaways on any given day? Yeah, me too.

Miami (+6.5) at Arizona - So 6 1/2 isn't 7, but it's close enough for me to apply the rule from above here. Did Miami look bad last week? Yes. Is Chad Pennington still Chad Pennington? Unfortunately for him, yes. But is Arizona still Arizona? I'm sticking with yes again. I think Arizona will most likely win, but the Dolphins kept it close against the Jets last week, and I would pick the Jets over the Cardinals in a heartbeat. Screwed up logic? Once again, yes.

New York Jets (-2) vs New England - Okay, I've been sitting here for several minutes trying to talk myself into one side or another here. On the Patriots side, they have a better team up and down the roster, except for the fact that Tom Brady is injured. On the Jets side, Tom Brady is injured. Aren't you glad you come here for this thorough analysis? Making his home debut against a team that will need some time to find its new identity, I'm going with Favre and the Jets in this one.

San Diego (-1) at Denver - The Broncos are coming off a short week after a road game. That usually doesn't bode well the following week. Plus, they're playing the Chargers, who have got to be furious about the outcome of their game last week. And I'm sure they'll want to prove that they're more than just Shawne Merriman and company on defense. (Why this theory doesn't apply to the Pats above: You can replace some of the production of a Pro-bowler on the defensive line with depth at the position, but you can't replace the production of the reigning MVP at the most important position on the field.)

Pittsburgh (-6) vs Cleveland - Last season, I had a thing where I would never pick the favorites on intra-divisional games when giving 6 or more points. I'm dropping that this season because, well, I don't know how well that worked out, and the Browns have given me another rule for picking games this year: Don't pick the Browns. That one's easier to follow...

Dallas (-7) vs Philadelphia - Donovan McNabb looked great against a bad defense last week. That sounds about right. I don't think he'll do as well against a solid defense this week. That also sounds about right... The Cowboys, from top to bottom, are still a better team than the Eagles and playing at home against their rivals, I don't think they'll take their foot off the gas at all this game. With their offense, that could get interesting quickly.

Houston (-4) vs Baltimore - I don't think the Ravens are as good as they showed last week. I think that had more to do with an awful, awful Bengals team. And I don't think the Texans are as bad as they showed. The Steelers just appear to be the class of the conference in the early season. I realize that the people in Houston have more pressing issues on their mind right now than this game, but when all is said and done, I think the Texans will give their fans at least something to cheer about.

Last Week: 10-6
Overall: 10-6

NFL Scorecard - Week 1 Predictions

2008-09-03T15:28:00.005-07:00

Year 1 of the great predicting experiment yielded mixed results for me. What started out as a strong display of intelligence quickly devolved into a pathetic few weeks of a complete lack of football aptitude. In the end, the regular season turned out how you would expect, with a regular season record just under .500. The playoffs saved me somewhat, resulting in a final showing of 128-125-14 (.506).

When I started this last season, I wrote "[s]tastically speaking, I should bat around .500, as that's essentially the purpose of the point spread." And while that is true, it was somewhat disheartening to do so well for nearly the entire season, only to collapse in the 4th quarter of the season. I would compare myself to the Detroit Lions at this point, but at least I made it to Week 15 before starting my demise...

Despite no additional reason for optimism beyond simply the start of the season, I find myself stepping back onto the field of play to try to improve upon last year's results. I have not improved in any way and will most likely use the same techniques I utilized before and somehow hope for better results. I guess in that respect, I'm more like the Chicago Bears than I would have hoped...

As always, spreads can be found here.

New York Giants (-4) vs Washington - The defending Super Bowl champions kick off the new season on Thursday, which really messes up my schedule on writing this post. Nevertheless, the NFL has decided to move forward in spite of me, and I feel the Giants will do the same in spite of the Redskins. New York is missing some key guys on its defensive line, but their depth, and a completely raucous crowd, should easily handle a Washington team that's shown nothing in the preseason thus far.

Cincinnati (-1) at Baltimore - If Joe Flacco is going to start his career against somebody, the Bengals defense is probably a good place to start. Of course, that doesn't change the fact that he's still a rookie that's making the jump from Delaware to the NFL. That takes some getting used to, and even though Cincinnati may not be championship material, they do still have enough weapons to start the season off right.

New York Jets (-3) at Miami - Brett Favre Bowl I kicks off on Sunday, with the second quickly following on Monday Night Football. It's hard to believe that Favre has really adapted to the Jets, or that they've adapted to him, but a motivated Favre and a rebuilding Dolphins team can pretty much turn out one way here. Thomas Jones should get on track against a defense missing Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas, which will ease the load on the aging quarterback as well.

New England (-16.5) vs Kansas City - I'm torn on this game. After last season, you would think that the Patriots would want to come out and tear apart a lessor opponent in the Chiefs. However, the run-it-up Pats didn't exactly turn out so well. And they didn't exactly come together in the preseason. And Tom Brady isn't exactly healthy. Last season, I would have bet New England and given 30 points. This year, I think a more conservative and balanced team will still flex their muscles enough to dominate the Chiefs.

Pittsburgh (-7) vs Houston - I admit, I haven't followed the preseason enough to know how the Willie Parker/Rashard Mendenhall situation is going to play out, but with three solid receivers, two game-breaking running backs, and a Super Bowl quarterback, I think it's safe to say that the Steelers are pretty much set on offense. That's more than can be said for Houston, which has pieces but has yet to put them together. Ahman Green is somehow still the starting running back, which is not a positive. If Andre Johnson can stay healthy for the entire game, they may keep it close... but not close enough.

Tennessee (+3) vs Jacksonville - I like the Jaguars this season, I really do. But for some reason, I just feel like an early-season, divisional road game will be a tough play, especially with everything going on around the Jaguars in the last week or so. I could see them winning this one, but I think the Titans keep it close, if not win it outright. (Side note: I feel like I'm going to be regretting this pick in about 96 hours...)

Detroit (-3) at Atlanta - Oh, a hotbed for football fans! The Falcons! The Lions! Could it get any better?! Well, the Lions just signed a washed up Rudi Johnson, so they got that going for them. The Falcons counter with Matt Ryan's first NFL game and Michael Turner's first start as "the Man". Kitna and Co. may not be glamorous, but they've been together for a while and will be able to run around the Falcons for the win.

Buffalo (pk) vs Seattle - I really don't like the Seahawks this year. I don't know why, but I have no faith at all in them. Luckily, I have (apparently) negative faith in the rest of their teams in the division since I still have them winning it, but in this matchup, against a Bills team at home, I'll go with the team without two of its top receivers injured.

New Orleans (-3) vs Tampa Bay - It's the season for redemption for the Saints, as many thought they were about to turn the corner last season, only to fall flat. They have plenty of offensive pieces, especially after adding Jeremy Shockey in the offseason. It's only a matter the defense that worries me about this team. The Bucs could exploit this, but in the emotional Superdome, I think the Saints give New Orleans something to cheer about.

St Louis (+7) at Philadelphia - Yes, Brian Westbrook will probably have a huge game. But who is Donovan McNabb going to throw the ball to? And right now, the Rams are all healthy, which makes them more dangerous than they'll probably be in a few weeks. By the end of the season, the Eagles will definitely be better off the the Rams, but Week 1... Going with the Rams for the upset.

Dallas (-5) at Cleveland - The top team in the NFC takes on the surprise team of the AFC last year, but the Browns won't be sneaking up on people this year, while the Cowboys have no problem in making themselves known as well. Both teams have plenty of offensive firepower (even though I still don't trust Derek Anderson), but when it comes to defense, Dallas has the obvious edge. The Cowboys are looking for a Super Bowl title this season. They won't get tripped up this early.

San Diego (-9.5) vs Carolina - The Panthers without Steve Smith is not exactly the type of team that can travel into San Diego and take on a popular Super Bowl pick. Shawne Merriman's injury may be the story of the day, but Carolina won't have the weapons to do anything about it. On the other side of the ball, well, there's Tomlinson... Not sure what more you need to say about that.

Arizona (-2.5) at San Francisco - Another thrilling matchup on the same level as the Lions-Falcons tilt mentioned above. I really don't have anything to say about either of these teams that's worth mentioning, but I'm rooting for Anquan Boldin for fantasy purposes, and the Cardinals have a quarterback who's done something, so let's go with them this time around.

Indianapolis (-9.5) vs Chicago - Peyton Manning vs Kyle Orton. Let that sink in for a second... Okay. Do I need to mention anything else? How about the fact the Colts want to erase the abrupt end to their season last winter and what better way to do that than destroying a bad team that can't tackle in prime time? Okay, let's just move on before I get sick...

Green Bay (-3) vs Minnesota - It's Brett Favre Bowl II. I have the Vikings winning the division, but right off the bat, I think the Packers, at home, take care of business against Minnesota. No matter what you think of Tarvaris Jackson, when your starting quarterback is taking the field at less than 100% against a good defense, that's not a good thing. Adrian Peterson will get his yards, although he'll have to earn them, while Aaron Rodgers will (he hopes) get on Green Bay fans' good side.

Denver (-3) at Oakland - It concerns me that I've taken almost all favorites in what always turns out to be one of the most unpredictable weeks of the season. But I don't know which game I would switch in this list. I was tempted to pick Oakland here at home, but with young players at several key positions, it might be too early to have come together enough to knock off the Broncos. Add in how much Mike Shanahan loves beating the Raiders, especially on Monday Night Football, and you've got yourself a Broncos victory.

Last Season: 128-125-14

2008 NFL Predictions

2008-08-30T09:03:00.005-07:00

It's amazing how having nothing to do really reduces your desire and capacity to do anything at all. I had assumed that my summer with no responsibilities would result in an abundance of new material on this website but as you can deduce by the date of the last post, that hasn't been the case. The Cubs and White Sox have both been riding their 1st place waves, the Bears have scuffled through the least inspiring quarterback competition I have ever witnessed, and the Bulls lucked into the #1 overall pick and drafted who I sincerely hope is the point guard in the Deron Williams/Chris Paul talent range like the experts all claim. And through every critical moment in the paths of my favorite teams, there I have sat, thinking "I should really write something about that... eh, I'll do it later."

Having no structure in my life is apparently not a good thing. Other than a move to Los Angeles, I can't really say I've accomplished much this summer. However, there is a light at the end of the tunnel, and with the light only a few days ahead, it's become too blinding to ignore. That's right, football season is here. The epitome of structure in the world of sports, the NFL season is about to begin and will hopefully kick me back into some sort of productive writing routine.

So with that, let us begin with what else... NFL predictions for the upcoming season. Now as I mentioned, no routine has severely reduced my productivity, which includes keeping up with what's been going on through training camps and preseason games. But I'm sure that you, my reader(s), will understand...

AFC East
1. New England Patriots (12-4) - So... how do you follow up the most memorable one-loss season in the history of the NFL? Well, playing in the AFC East will help cure a lot of their ills. They're a little older, and teams are a little wiser playing them, but the Patriots are still the class of the division and should coast to another division title and first-round bye. Tom Brady could dominate this division with one leg, which coincidentally, he might have to do...
2. Buffalo Bills (8-8) - Dick Jauron still only has one winning season in his entire coaching tenure. Until proven otherwise, I can't possibly go above .500 with this team. I do like the talent they have, but their quarterback is still developing and who is going to line up opposite Lee Evans? If the pattern holds, the Bills will start slowly, then come on strong at the end of the season to save Jauron's job yet again.
3. New York Jets (8-8) - Yes, yes, Brett Favre is the quarterback. I get it. Where was he during the OTAs though? And through training camp? And in the first preseason game? Oh yeah, that's right, he just got there. I don't care who you are, it takes some time to adjust to a new system, and Favre isn't exactly getting younger. Was he taking care of himself this offseason? Is he in shape? Is he going to wear down? Too many questions to rank this team any higher than this.
4. Miami Dolphins (5-11) - Whoever invented the term "rebuilding" is a genius because it allows teams that you know are going to stink a free pass on the season. Low expectations are always welcomed by new coaching staffs. Chad Pennington, when not injured, should be serviceable, and I'm hoping (for fantasy purposes) that Ricky Williams stays on the right side of crazy, but there are plenty of holes on this team that will take some time to fill in. They won't be filled in this season...

AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) - I actually feel like the Steelers will be better than this record, but when I went through the season schedule, somehow this is what I came up with. But the potential is there, with plenty of offensive weapons at Big Ben's disposal. In a division with plenty of question marks, the Steelers look like the most solid of the bunch.
2. Cleveland Browns (8-8) - When weighing my quarterback options for my fantasy draft, I saw Derek Anderson sitting there among the top-ranked at his position. His ceiling is quite high, with an assortment of receivers all capable of breaking games wide open. But this is still Derek Anderson we're talking about. He couldn't beat out Charlie Frye to start last season, faded terribly at the end of the year, and still has Brady Quinn looking over his shoulder. Add in a defense that still hasn't stopped anybody... yeah, .500 seems about right.
3. Cincinnati Bengals (7-9) - Where to begin with this team... Well, they brought Chris Henry back, so there's that. Chad ~~Johnson~~ Ocho Cinco is still insane. The defense is still questionable. I feel Carson Palmer took a step backwards last season. I can't possibly trust this team to put forth any sort of consistent play this season. Sure, they'll have some nice wins, but I see some bad losses with this team.
4. Baltimore Ravens (6-10) - Kyle Boller, Troy Smith, and Joe Flacco? And I thought the Bears' quarterback competition was depressing. Add in Willis McGahee already being nicked up, Todd Heap being a complete disaster last year, and Ray Lewis and Co. all being a year older and this team looks like it has a long season ahead...

AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts (11-5) - Anybody who thinks Peyton Manning would miss any regular season time obviously doesn't follow Peyton Manning. Even after his Super Bowl MVP performance, questions about his "clutchness" continue to persist, especially after losing to the woefully undermanned Chargers in the playoffs and watching erratic younger brother, Eli, duplicate his MVP performance. Peyton wants to establish his greatness by breaking every record he can, including consecutive games played. He won't sit out a game unless the coaching staff literally straps his down during warmups.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars (11-5) - At some point, the Jaguars are going to knock off the Colts to claim the division, right? I mean, we've been talking about this for years now, but every year the Colts hang on for the title. David Garrard and Maurice Jones-Drew form an impressive offensive combination to go along with a defense that just drafted even more linemen. I still don't know who's going to catch the ball, but they'll have enough firepower to claim the top wild card spot.
3. Tennessee Titans (9-7) - For the second year in a row, I have the Titans at 9-7 and I'm not entirely sure why. At the same time, Jeff Fisher has this team playing solid football every year and I'm not entirely sure how. Of course the season, as the last couple, will depend on how far Vince Young has come. Now in his third season, it's time to show what he's made of.
4. Houston Texans (6-10) - "Everybody believes the Texans are building a team the right way, but they're not there yet." I wrote that in last season's prediction post. I see no reason to change that this time around...

AFC West
1. San Diego Chargers (12-4) - Behind Norv Turner, this team made great strides towards the championship... wait, let me read that again... I'll tell you, I never expected to type those words in my life, but there they are. This team scraped its way to the AFC Championship game, getting by the Colts and playing the Patriots tight. Now everybody is back healthy and has had a taste of what to expect. They're a trendy pick to represent the conference in the Super Bowl, and it's tough to argue, although the Merriman injury does raise some concern.
2. Denver Broncos (9-7) - Can we officially scratch off the "Genius" label from Mike Shanahan's business cards? Other than frustrating fantasy owners, Shanahan hasn't done much with the talent he's accumulated these last few years. Jay Cutler may be ready to take the leap, but this team is a far cry from the dominating team of several years ago. So why do I have them making the playoffs? Well, it's tradition to see the Colts destroy this team in the first round, and I don't like to mess with tradition...
3. Oakland Raiders (6-10) - JaMarcus Russell and Darren McFadden. It sounds like a great combination... in a year or two. The duo will go through some growing pains their first season together, but it's an interesting story to follow. If they both live up to the hype, the Raiders may be a force in the not-so-distant future. Of course, they'll have to upgrade from the Ronald Curry and the player formerly known as Javon Walker at WR.
4. Kansas City Chiefs (5-11) - I thought the Chiefs were going to be one of the worst teams in the league... and then they manhandled the Bears first unit in the first preseason game. That did not give me confidence in my own team, but it did remind me that the Chiefs at least one offensive weapon in Larry Johnson. If he's healthy, he should carry the team behind a questionable offensive line. But one player won't carry a team beyond a handful of wins.

NFC East
1. Dallas Cowboys (12-4) - If the Cowboys don't easily control the division (and conference) this season, somebody is going to get fired, and it's not going to be Jerry Jones. The Cowboys have weapons at every position and a defense that can play with any team. I think their only weakness may be Jessica Simpson.
2. New York Giants (9-7) - Now the hard part begins... The team went 10-6 last year on their path to the Super Bowl but now as the crowned champs, opponents will be gunning for the Giants every game. Has Eli really shaken off all the inconsistency issues, or was the title run just a lucky consistency peak in his ever-fluctuating football career? I'm leaning towards the latter...
3. Philadelphia Eagles (8-8) - It's a shame that this division is so stacked because the Eagles would most likely win either the NFC North or West. However, being stuck in the East, the Eagles have a tough hill to climb. If Donovan McNabb can stay healthy, they can beat any team in their division, but he'll need his receivers to stay healthy as well, which hasn't been the case so far.
4. Washington Redskins (7-9) - They say not to make too much of the preseason, and that's good advice for Redskins fans, as Washington has been trounced in their last two games. Washington is looking for big things from Jason Campbell, but much like the Eagles, it will be difficult to accomplish much when even a decent team is still the fourth best in this division.

NFC North
1. Minnesota Vikings (10-6) - Adrian Peterson and the defense alone will win the division for the Vikings. Anything Tarvaris Jackson gives them will be a bonus. Bernard Berrian on turf will help, although don't expect to include him on the run blocking... They didn't get Brett Favre, but as long as that wasn't a huge distraction, the Vikings should claim the division title.
2. Green Bay Packers (9-7) - So... what's new? In what might be the most closely examined Packers season in a long time, Aaron Rodgers takes the helm as somebody other than #4 takes the snaps for the first time in what's seemed like the last 74 years. Somehow, even as a backup, Rodgers has had two season-ending injuries in the last three years, which is something that probably makes Packers fans nervous. But they do have surprise star Ryan Grant in the backfield and a solid defense, in addition to 4 games against the Lions and the Bears... I think the Packers will be just fine...
3. Detroit Lions (7-9) - Mike Martz is gone... so now who do they blame when things don't go well? Jon Kitna is suddenly the senior quarterback in the division, but that doesn't necessarily inspire confidence in duplicating his numbers from the last few seasons. He's a nice quarterback, but when Tatum Bell is atop your depth chart (even though Kevin Smith should get most the carries), it's not a good thing.
4. Chicago Bears (5-11) - You would think it pains me to list the Bears this low, but I'm hoping that low expectations softens the trauma that I'm most likely about to feel this season. Kyle Orton at quarterback. Rookie Matt Forte at running back. Five #4 receivers running routes down the field. A defense that can no longer tackle. Fantastic... The only exciting part of this team is Devin Hester, and they're reducing his returns this year to keep him fresh as a receiver. How much energy does it take to watch punts sail out of bounds?

NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints (11-5) - Is Reggie Bush an elite running back? That's the question of the season for the Saints, and at the moment, the answer is "no". However, they do have a plethora of receiving options, including Jeremy Shockey. This makes me, the owner of Drew Brees, very happy. However, there were holes on both sides of the ball for this team last year, and I'm not sure how well the defense has been fixed. But the offensive firepower alone should be able to control the division.
2. Carolina Panthers (10-6) - With a healthy Jake Delhomme, a healthy Jonathan Stewart, and an unsuspended Steve Smith, this team will have plenty of talent on the offensive side of the ball. Reports have Julius Peppers back to his old ways, which will be a welcomed sight to Panthers fans. However, I feel that there are still more questions (see: injuries, suspensions) for Carolina than New Orleans, which is why I'm putting them here, claiming the top wild card spot.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7) - Yet another team linked to the Favre drama this offseason. Like the Vikings, the Buccaneers failed to acquire the veteran quarterback. However, unlike the Vikings, there is no Adrian Peterson in the backfield to pick up the slack. They do have Jeff Garcia, who just continues to plug along and prove his doubters wrong. While it may not be exciting, it has been efficient. But I just don't see this team climbing over the two above it.
4. Atlanta Falcons (3-13) - This team was awful last season and is now throwing in a rookie quarterback from Day 1 to lead the team from the abyss that Michael Vick left them in. Yeah, good luck with that. Falcon fans are hoping that the "throw him into the fire" approach will have Matt Ryan follow the path that Peyton Manning took, but even Manning struggled the first season. Michael Turner will help, but it'll be time for great patience in Atlanta.

NFC West
1. Seattle Seahawks (8-8) - I've obviously saved the best division for last here... It's a shame that any of these teams have to make the playoffs, but that's the situation we're in, so I'm going with the team with the most experienced head coach and quarterback. Seems logical enough. Seattle will probably end up with a better record simply because of the teams in their division, but there's always one awful division that gets people worked up about the playoff structure, and I'm going with this one.
2. Arizona Cardinals (5-11) - Anquan Boldin is upset. Edgerrin James is older. Matt Leinart can't find the field. Sounds like a great recipe to the season. How much of a leash is Kurt Warner going to have? Will Boldin become a distraction? Will the Arizona Cardinals ever stop being the Arizona Cardinals? By this prediction, I'm apparently saying "not this year".
3. St. Louis Rams (5-11) - Well, Steven Jackson made it to camp, so that's a plus. But this team completely fell apart last season, with or without Jackson, and I don't know if they've really improved themselves that much. Marc Bulger is still accurate when healthy, but how long will he hold out? Torry Holt is older and the other side of the field needs to find a replacement for Isaac Bruce not named Drew Bennett... They did add Chris Long to the defense, but the left side of the defensive line has a lot of miles on their collective tires.
4. San Francisco 49ers (5-11) - Remember when everybody was on the Frank Gore bandwagon as a top fantasy football pick? Yeah, funny how things change. Of course, Gore is the least of the 49ers problems this season, as here we find yet another inspiring quarterback competition between J.T. O'Sullivan, Shaun Hill, and the immortal Alex Smith. Really, do I need to say anything else to explain why I have this team with only 5 wins? Okay then...

AFC Wild Card Round
Indianapolis over Denver - Just because it's what's meant to be...
Jacksonville over Pittsburgh - The Jaguars have the defensive players to contain the Steelers offense and their offense will find just enough points to get out of Pittsburgh with a win.
NFC Wild Card Round
Minnesota over New York Giants - With a stud defense and home field advantage, the Vikings dethrone the Giants and the questions about Eli start up once again.
Carolina over Seattle - Somehow, the wild card Panthers gets a better draw than the division winner Vikings. Carolina cruises to an easy victory.

AFC Divisional Round
San Diego over Jacksonville - The Chargers return to the AFC Championship game with an instant classic over the Jaguars.
New England over Indianapolis - Wow, the AFC matchups are just so much more intriguing than the NFC. The Patriots squeak by the Colts, closing out Tony Dungy's career.
NFC Divisional Round
Dallas over Carolina - The Cowboy defense smothers Steve Smith and pressures Jake Delhomme into key mistakes. The offense finishes the job.
Minnesota over New Orleans - They say a good defense always beats a good offense. That, for no other reason, has me going with the Vikings.

AFC Championship
San Diego over New England - On one hand, we have the questions surrounding the Patriots' aura of invincibility being irreparably damaged. On the other hand, we have questions about an injury to Shawne Merriman. I'll go with concern about one player over concern for the entire team.
Dallas over Minnesota - Yes, the Vikings' defense is good, but so is the Cowboys' and the Vikings are still being run by Tarvaris Jackson. Dallas will do just enough to contain Adrian Peterson and ride back into the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl XLIII
Dallas over San Diego - As I went through the entire season schedule, team by team, game by game, I could not find any obvious weakness or flaw in the Cowboys makeup. They have the offense, they have the defense, they have the special teams, they have the playmakers. They are a complete team that should easily handle the NFC and then cause Norv Turner to revert back into Norv Turner while facing his old team. The Chargers make it one step closer than last season, but have to settle for runner-up. Of course, this all looks silly if Merriman is hurt more than he's letting on. They'll still claim their division, but they won't be able to run through the AFC playoffs, much less the Super Bowl, without his talent lining up on every down.

So with that being said, feel free to go bet on anybody other than Dallas and San Diego with complete confidence...

Please, MLB, Expand Interleague Play!

2008-06-17T12:28:00.006-07:00

Next week, I will be heading to Wrigley Field to see the Baltimore Orioles on the north side for their first series ever in the Friendly Confines. Many people claim that this is the beauty of interleague play... seeing teams you would not normally see. I say, what took so long?

Interleague play has been around for over a decade, yet we continue to see matchups that we have yet to see. Now in the NFL, it is somewhat understandable to not see teams for quite some time, as there are 30 teams and only 16 games a season. But even then, the longest wait to see a team in your home stadium is only 8 years. But could you imagine an NBA where the Lakers didn't visit the Celtics in Boston for a decade? Fans would be in an uproar. Yet baseball continues to coast by with its twisted system that has the Orioles on the north side once in 13 years... a system that pits the Cubs against the White Sox 6 times a year, while the Cardinals coast by against the Royals.

Unbalanced schedules, decades between matchups... This is why I like interleague play, but I don't love it.

The traditionalists argued that interleague play and the wild card would hurt baseball as we know it. If ratings and attendance are any indication, interleague play and the wild card brought excitement back to the game after the strike (with a little assist from steroids and HGH...). Yet it still seems like it's lacking to me. Why should we wait 13 years to see the Orioles play the Cubs in Chicago? Does that make sense to anybody? With 162 games a season, it seems crazy that every team can't fit into the schedule. Every year, each NBA team plays every team in the other conference twice, once in each home stadium. It's not like there are fewer teams in the NBA, and there are half as many games... Can't something similar be applied to Major League Baseball? My biggest problem with interleague play is not that it doesn't work, it's that baseball doesn't acknowledge that it can do more. To me, the problem is interleague play as it's currently implemented doesn't go far enough.

My solution? Expand interleague play to approximately a quarter of all games. This may seem like a big jump, but 4 out of 16 NFL games are across conferences and that hasn't seemed to hurt football's popularity in this country. So how would this work? Let's break it down...

162 Game Schedule

48 Interleague games
60 Intraleague games, non-division
54 Divisional games

What does this accomplish? Well, first off, it allows each team to play a 3-game series with every team in the other league. So the Orioles and whoever else would make their way to Wrigley Field or US Cellular every other year. Still rare enough to promote ticket sales, but not the ridiculous wait of 13 years. When NBA schedules come out annually, I always look for the Western Conference teams coming to the United Center first because I know they only come once. Those games are still in higher demand, even though I know those teams are coming back next year, and I would expect the same with baseball. Second, it maintains the current home-and-home series with the 10 non-division teams in each league, so we would still see those teams each and every year. Finally, it keeps the division-heavy schedule, with 13 or 14 games against the other 4 teams within the division, but reduces the ridiculous 18-game divisional schedules that have the Cubs playing the Pirates 12 times before June. Basically, we would be borrowing games from the division for the chance to see the Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, and Angels every couple years.

Now what about the uneven divisions of the NL Central and AL West? Well, that's the beauty of this system. With so many interleague games, there would always be at least one interleague matchup taking place, which means that there is no longer a requirement for an even number of teams in each league. It is insane that the Cubs have to knock off 5 teams to claim the division title while the Angels just need to fend off 3. Balancing the interleague schedule would allow the Brewers to move back to the AL Central, where they resided for so long. Then the Kansas City Royals could move to the AL West to even out that division. Do the Royals really belong in the AL West? Well, no, but all things considered, they don't really belong in Major League Baseball either. And it'll at least give the Rangers a team in their own timezone to compete with.

In addition, you may have noticed that 15 interleague teams times 3 does not equal the 48 I have listed above. I took into account the "natural rivalries" baseball has designated and have allowed an additional 3 games for that rival. So in Chicago, the Cubs would still play the Sox 6 times a season, with a series at each park. And if MLB was so inclined, it could have its rivalry weekend, where all 30 teams were playing their natural rivals at the same time. If that doesn't promote excitement within baseball circles, then I'm not sure anything would.

So, by expanding interleague play, not only would every fan be able to see every team every couple years, but the teams themselves would have nearly identical schedules with the other teams within their divisions. There would still be some minor differences, due to the rivalry games and the need to play two teams within the division one more time than the other two. And the potential for rainouts in these 3-game interleague season series would most likely require more doubleheaders the next day rather than down the road. Additionally, there would be some awful matchups, but it's not like people get too excited when bad teams play each other within their own league anyways. But overall, I believe that this is the next step in the evolution of interleague play, leveling the playing field for all the teams and giving fans something different to look forward to. At least, that's what I'll be telling myself when I'm sitting in the stands next week watching the Orioles take on the Cubs, wondering when the next time I will be able to see them will be...

Suns vs. Spurs - Early Battle for My Playoff Affections

2008-04-19T13:56:00.008-07:00

With the demise of the Bulls this season, I have once again become a basketball orphan for these 2008 NBA Playoffs. Unfortunately, since the Jordan years, this is all too familiar a feeling for me, the last few years notwithstanding - 2 first round losses and a second round defeat don't exactly make a champion, as we found this year.

So which team will I be rooting for through this second season? As is the case when the Cubs, Sox, and Bears fail to make the playoffs, determining my temporary favorite is a lesson in process of elimination...

Tackling the Eastern Conference first is the easy task. Considering I'd like to enjoy these playoffs for more than a round or two, many teams are quickly removed from the list. Philadelphia and Atlanta, congratulations on returning to the playoffs but we all know this is where the story ends. Toronto? Orlando? Solid players on both teams (and bonus points for the Magic with two Illini) but I just can't bring myself to cheer for either. If I'm going to bandwagon for a couple months, it's at least going to be for a team with some sort of history beyond a four-game sweep in the '95 Finals.

The rest of the conference doesn't sit much better, not because of lack of talent, but because of historical rivalries with the Bulls that I just cannot move beyond. Detroit? Uh, no. Cleveland? LeBron and his traveling band of pseudo-NBA players don't get my vote. (Side note: Why is it so hard to find players to complement LeBron? Is it the GM's fault or does LeBron just not make his teammates better?) Boston? Let's just say there is some residual bitterness after seeing Kevin Garnett end up in Celtic green instead of Bull red. Finally, Washington? Well, they don't have the talent to win, and their uniforms are beyond ugly, but they fight hard and the longer Gilbert Arenas is around, the more chance of something truly insane happening, so let's keep them on the list for now...

Now this is where it starts to become complicated... the Western Conference. Essentially every team in the conference has at least an outside chance of the championship, so my main criteria for choosing a team doesn't eliminate anybody here. Moving on to just gut feel, Denver... I will always be grateful to Carmelo for winning me money when he was at Syracuse, but with the DUI, and the complete utter lack of defensive commitment, they aren't the choice. Houston? Make it out of the first round for once and we'll talk. Dallas? I still believe the Mavericks were screwed over in the series against Miami, and it would be nice to see David Stern hand the trophy to Mark Cuban, but there isn't a single player on the team I feel a connection to. New Orleans? How can Deron Williams claim the title of best young point guard in the league if Chris Paul succeeds this post season? So they're out. Speaking of Deron Williams, Utah is on the list, but essentially for that reason, and that reason alone... Los Angeles has been a great story, but if the Kevin Garnett thing still bothers me, just imagine the Kobe Bryant AND Pau Gasol situation.

So to recap... of the sixteen teams, twelve have already been eliminated either for lack of talent, lack of history, lack of connection, or sheer contempt towards the team. The Washington Wizards are on the list solely for the possibility (probability?) for Arenas insanity. The Utah Jazz are on the list solely for Deron Williams. And of course, the Phoenix Suns and San Antonio Spurs...

The fundamental game of the Spurs vs. the high-octane game of the Suns. Both teams are solid. Both teams are full of stars. Both teams find me subconsciously rooting for them. And of course, they go up against each other in the first round.

Behind Steve Nash, the Suns brought "exciting" back to the NBA. Steve Kerr made the gutsy call of trading for Shaq, and it seems to be working. Amare Stoudemire has taken off since Shawn Marion left. Throw in Grant Hill and the rest of the bench... If there's a team, and a player, that deserves a championship, it's Phoenix and Nash.

In San Antonio, they haven't been flashy, but they just win. I've respected them for years for the way they play (except for maybe Bruce Bowen). Tim Duncan has accomplished much in his career... except for back-to-back titles. And the longer Tony Parker is around, the more of Eva Longoria we are likely to see. If there's an NBA franchise that demonstrates how to operate better than the Spurs, I have yet to see it.

And again, one of these teams will be cleaning out their lockers in a week or so.

It's been billed as one of the greatest first round matchups ever, and it's unfortunate that it happens this early, but at least this will thin out my rooting interests. Whoever wins this series will undoubtedly get my support for the remainder of the post season. Judging from my reactions during Game 1, the Suns seems to have my edge right now...

But considering we are now in the second OT in Game 1, I can't go wrong rooting for both and enjoy seeing this sensational series go to seven.

Evaluating the NBA Playoff structure

2008-03-29T10:40:00.004-07:00

In yesterday's ESPN Daily Dime, there was a survey asking if you would like to see the top 16 teams taken for the NBA playoffs, regardless of conference. Not surprisingly, 69% of the nearly twenty thousand people who responded said "yes" to the question. And logically, that makes sense. I mean, who wouldn't want to see the most qualified teams in the playoffs. However, as a member of the 31% minority, I would like to use this space to explain that while the 69% may be looking at the big picture, they are failing to see the whole picture.

First off, if the playoffs were to start today, the playoff teams would be as follows:

East: Boston, Detroit, Orlando, Cleveland, Washington, Toronto, Philadelphia, Atlanta
West: New Orleans, San Antonio, LA Lakers, Utah, Houston, Phoenix, Dallas, Golden State

Now if we were to simply go with the top 16 records, the only things that would change would be Philadelphia and Atlanta out, Denver and Portland in. That's it. Those are the only changes. No sweeping alterations like taking 12 teams from the West as many would make it seem. There would be two teams out, two teams in. Division and conference alignments would be rendered meaningless in order to replace two teams unlikely to win a championship with two teams unlikely to win a championship.

However, this is not even my biggest concern with this thought process. My dilemma comes from determining the top 16 teams. How do you judge the top 16 teams across conferences? I argue that you cannot simply pluck the top records and claim "Problem solved! We have the best teams!" The issue with the system is not that the wrong teams are making the playoffs. It's that the disparity in conferences is so great right now. I would argue that at least four teams in the East would fail to reach .500, much less the playoffs, if they were in the West. But this isn't reflected in the records, as I just showed above, with only two teams being swapped out. Why is this? Well, the answer to that is simple... The East plays the East and the West plays the West.

Obviously, everybody who follows the sport is aware of this, but it is still a crucial point to make when arguing about the best 16 teams. How can you truly judge the premier teams when the level of competition is so markedly different between them? Would Atlanta still have the same record if they played 41 games against the West instead of 30? Wouldn't Portland be in a better position if they faced Miami four times instead of San Antonio? You cannot determine the best teams based on uneven levels of comparison. This season, wouldn't you consider a .450 team from the West to be better than a .550 team from the East? Yet in the 'Best 16 Records' approach, the team from the West would still be excluded from the postseason.

Now you may be thinking that this is still a better approach than what we have now, that at least we'd still be including teams that are qualified for the playoffs and eliminating teams with no reason to even be involved in the discussion. But I argue that the system we have currently is actually MORE inclusive than the alternative and promotes competition among those who would otherwise have no reason to compete.

If the NBA simply took the top 16 records, would Philadelphia have fought back from oblivion to reach .500 or just been satisfied with another year of rebuilding? Would Denver, Golden State, and Dallas be battling to the finish or would they be resting players knowing that their playoff positions were secure? Despite the fact that Eli and the Giants changed the whole "resting players" approach, I don't believe you would be seeing the same level of fight in some of these teams with their playoff lives at stake. And while you would be correct in stating that Portland and Sacramento would still be involved in races if we were to change the system, teams like Atlanta, New Jersey, Indiana, Chicago, and to some degree, Charlotte and Milwaukee, would have folded up ages ago knowing that there was no opportunity to reach the playoffs. Much like the wild card, it keeps hope in cities that would otherwise have none. And if you think that intentional tanking of the season is bad now, what would happen when a handful of teams are eliminated by the end of January? Although I hate seeing the Bulls struggle this season, I'd much prefer to see them compete (and I use the term loosely) than throw out something like what Miami has been lately.

Much like it is after Selection Sunday, this is always a discussion during the season for the simple fact that they want the best teams included. However, much like March Madness, once those first few rounds are completed, the true challengers for the title come to the forefront. The weeks of exciting games make everybody forget who was the nation's 66th or 67th team, just like these playoffs will quickly make you forget who the 17th or 18th best teams were this season. It's also why the BCS will never be free of this debate, as there is no distraction between the bowl pairings and the championship game, but that's a debate for another article.

In the end, I am not saying that I disagree with the thought that the most qualified teams should make the playoffs. But I do believe that it is a bit more complicated than merely taking the teams with the best records and thinking that solves everything. You must consider the imbalanced scheduling, the level of competition across leagues, and the possibility of discouraging several fan bases for the benefit of a few. Could discarding divisions and conferences ultimately prove beneficial to the league? Possibly, but in order to look at this big picture, you have to take into account the whole picture.

For that 69%, that is apparently easier said than done.

No-thought predictions of the 2008 MLB season

2008-03-27T16:00:00.008-07:00

I love baseball.

Although I follow football more closely and enjoy playing basketball the most, there is something about baseball that just draws you in. Perhaps it's the idea that spring is just around the corner (despite the fact it's snowing right now). Perhaps it's the camaraderie built with friends and strangers drinking beers in the stands. Perhaps it's the uniqueness of the individualistic team sport that you don't find anywhere else in American culture. Whatever the reason, every year I get sucked in, every year I try to plan another trip in my quest to visit all the stadiums (up to 16), and every year I try to make predictions on the upcoming season.

However, unlike football, where teams are known to jump from worst to first, or basketball, where drafting a single player can change the course of a franchise in either direction, baseball appears to be more static. It's why the Braves can win 14 straight division titles. It's why the Yankees and Red Sox have dominated the AL East. And it's why the the ~~Devil~~ Rays have never even sniffed the playoffs.

Outside of the occasional Florida Marlins championship (next due in 2009), the league is fairly consistent from one season to the next. So instead of making some outlandish prediction just for the sake of making predictions, I'm going with the opposite approach. I'm going with a technique that results in approximately 90% of the predictions I would have ended up with anyways, but with a fraction of the thought process. I'm going with the 2007 regular season standings...

What's that, you say? How boring? Well, I challenge anybody to beat my predictions. Just for review, here's how the standings stood at the end of last season...

~~2007~~ 2008 Standings
American League
East Division
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Tampa Bay Rays

Central Division
1. Cleveland Indians
2. Detroit Tigers
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Kansas City Royals

West Division
1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Seattle Mariners
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Texas Rangers

National League
East Division
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. New York Mets
3. Atlanta Braves
4. Washington Nationals
5. Florida Marlins

Central Division
1. Chicago Cubs
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Houston Astros
5. Cincinnati Reds
6. Pittsburgh Pirates

West Division
1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Colorado Rockies
3. San Diego Padres
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
5. San Francisco Giants

At first glance, this doesn't seem too unrealistic. Everybody predicts the Reds will be better, but let's see what they say when Dusty blows out Aaron Harang's arm and Neifi Perez makes his regularly scheduled appearance once his suspension is worked out. The Tigers could beat out the Indians, but either way, that should come down to the wire. And if Mark Prior can stay healthy, the Padres could run and hide in their division. But all in all, I'm not too disappointed with my picks, and this gives me the rest of the day to watch the Sweet 16...

Of course, I am not going to pick identical playoff scenarios to last year. I'll at least give that some thought...

Divisional Series
Boston Red Sox over Detroit Tigers
Cleveland Indians over Los Angeles Angels
Chicago Cubs over New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies over Arizona Diamondbacks

Championship Series
Cleveland Indians over Boston Red Sox
Philadelphia Phillies over Chicago Cubs

World Series
Cleveland Indians over Philadelphia Phillies

Now if you'll excuse me, I've got some UCLA basketball to watch...

March Madness - Ranking the Sweet 16

2008-03-24T08:03:00.032-07:00

The problem with going back through your bracket and forcing upsets is that 1) you never force the right ones, and 2) you end up missing out on the actual upsets, costing you twice as many points. The other side effect is that you end up with USC in your Elite 8...

Nevertheless, despite the fact that my Yahoo! bracket looks like Christmas (too much red with the green...), I stand in decent shape, as seven of my Elite 8 are still alive, as is my entire Final 4. Although, UCLA... if you could just go ahead and win handily from now on, I'd greatly appreciate it. (Side note: Kevin Love... I am a fan.)

In retrospect, the first weekend brought us four overtime games, six others decided by 5 points or less, twelve upsets based on seedings, and of course, the knowledge that we will have a Duke-free remainder of the tournament. But as Mark McGwire would say, I'm not here to talk about the past! It's time to look forward and see what is going to happen in the coming weeks. Who has the best chance? Who should just be happy to be where they are? Let's take a look at the remaining 16 teams and try to sort this out.

16. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers - Sure, this team is a nice story, but the Sweet 16 is where Cinderella usually loses her glass slipper. And by glass slipper, I mean game... The Hilltoppers pulled out a dramatic win over mid-major Drake in round one, then took on fellow underdog San Diego in round two. They have yet to play a major conference team (although they'd most likely beat Illinois - sorry, back to looking forward...) and now go up against top-seeded UCLA. It's been a nice run, but I believe it stops here.

15. Villanova Wildcats - Perhaps the last team to make the tournament, the Wildcats are another example of why you should never go against your first instinct... Originally in my Sweet 16, the Wildcats have indeed made my non-prediction come true. The win over Georgia was solid, and they took care of business against Sienna, but now comes Kansas, who is always apt to choking but still a considerably better team than this Big East hopeful. As a vengeful Illini fan, I will be rooting for them. But truth be told, I can't see them pulling another win out.

14. Davidson Wildcats - I don't necessarily like putting Davidson here, but looking at the rest of the field, I could not select anybody to drop to move the Wildcats up. All 92 pounds of Stephen Curry has been phenomenal thus far. He not only shoots with accuracy, but with great confidence. Late in the second half against Georgetown, he received the ball just above the top of the key and you could just tell he was going to shoot it. Sure enough, the first opening he gets, drains a 3, nothing but net, putting Davidson up 5. I knew right then that the game was over and that this team is not a team I would want to face. I wish I knew this before I filled out my brackets, however, as I had Davidson in my Elite 8, had second thoughts... and then ended up going with the aforementioned USC...

13. Michigan State Spartans - This team confuses me. Their inconsistency has plagued them all season, yet somehow, Tom Izzo always seems to be prepared for the tournament. More power to him, I guess, yet at some point, the weaknesses of this team and the fact that they're still from the Big Ten will come to the surface. Playing a #1 seed is usually a reasonable time for that to happen. Sure, the Spartans beat Pittsburgh, who was the sleeper team of choice for many. But I had Pittsburgh losing to Temple, so that tells you my impression of Pittsburgh. Of course, I had Michigan State falling to Temple as well, so that tells you my impression of Michigan State. And I had Temple in my Sweet 16, so that tells you all you need to know about me...

12. West Virginia Mountaineers - How about that Big East, huh? Eight teams in and only three made it to the Sweet 16. And who would have guessed that the Mountaineers would be one of those still standing? Oh yeah, that's right... me. But defeating an Arizona team that barely squeaked into the field of 65 and an overrated Duke team is more impressive in terms of my gratitude than of accomplishment. I think the Mountaineers have a better shot at reaching the Elite 8 than some of the teams I'm about to get to, but in the grand scheme of things, I think this is where West Virginia lies... solid performance for a 7-seed, but not in the top tier of remaining schools.

11. Xavier Musketeers - Why do I think West Virginia has a good shot at the Elite 8? Primarily because I have not been overly impressed with Xavier. I have Xavier making the next round, so they'll have my rooting interest, but thus far, they defeated Georgia, which had an unprecedented run simply to make the tournament but was still a .500 team, and struggled against Purdue, who is up-and-coming but still too young to see as a major threat in this tournament (and again, that whole Big Ten thing). I don't know what the line is, but I can see the Xavier-West Virginia game going either way, down to the wire, so it makes sense to rank them together as well.

10. Stanford Cardinal - Yes, Brook Lopez was sensational during the second half and overtime, but at some point, he will be slowed down in this tournament and then what? The Cardinal need to find a little better balance if they're going to advance past Texas (who have issues of their own). They also need a coach who doesn't get needlessly ejected in the biggest game of the season... While we're here, how do you think it feels to be the less talented twin brother? Do you go through life just wondering what exactly happened in the womb? I don't think I would ever get over that. Somebody call Harvey Grant and ask him what he thinks...

9. Washington State Cougars - Here is another team that I'd like to rank higher but don't know who else to move down. While their Pac-10 colleagues were eking out last second wins, the Cougars soundly handled Notre Dame on Saturday, a team that I expected to see in the Sweet 16. Of course, a little luster was taken off the win after watching most of the Big East crumble, but it got to the point where I stopped paying attention to the game, something that typically only happens during blowouts. The biggest problem they face now, however, is that whole North Carolina thing that's staring them in the face.

8. Texas Longhorns - I kept looking at the scores in the corner of the screen and saw Texas continually lead Miami for most of the game. Then, suddenly, Miami was just a few points back with the game on the line. My initial thought was "What did Rick Barnes do now?" That's never a good sign. While the Longhorns have talent, essentially a home court in Houston, and that whole Ewing Theory working for them, the chances of them overcoming their coach (who is, to quote my relatives in Texas, "awful") is minimal. When it comes down to crunch time, you want a coach who is going to push all the right buttons... so the Trent Johnson/Rick Barnes chess match should be quite a show...

7. Wisconsin Badgers - I tend to disrespect the Big Ten often, but that's what happens when the conference, shall we say, fails to live up to expectations. While the Badgers were definitely the best of a bad bunch, I am waiting for the shoe to drop and purify this tournament from the plodding that is Big Ten offensive basketball. Nevertheless, I do have to respect Bo Ryan for what he's done with this team. Typically, the Badgers play solid defense and have one go-to guy on offense to carry them when needed. This year, they have the defense once again, but I don't know who will take over in the clutch, and in the month of March, you need that somebody.

6. Memphis Tigers - Before the tournament started, there were two sides to the debate regarding the Memphis Tigers. One side said that their free throw shooting would do them in. The other said that they were talented enough to overcome. I tended to side with the former, having the Tigers bow out in the Elite 8 of my bracket. After watching the end of the Memphis-Mississippi St. matchup, I'm going to stick with my gut and say they will be the first 1-seed eliminated. Conference USA, this is not.

5. Louisville Cardinals - Quite honestly, I did not know what to expect from the Cardinals before this weekend. I saw them reaching the Final 4. I saw them eliminated in the first round. So I settled with the round of 16, and thus far, my prediction is accurate. They have crushed both Boise St. and Oklahoma, although I don't consider either of those as signature wins. Nevertheless, the team is playing well, and you cannot underestimate Rick Pitino come tournament time. They'll be ready for the Volunteers.

4. UCLA Bruins - My pick to win the championship before the tournament, the Bruins put a significant fright in me on Saturday, trailing for nearly the entire game until eventually putting it together against Texas A&M. Looking back through the season, the Bruins have had quite a few scares. However, like good teams do, they have pulled them out, just as they did this weekend. They have the talent and have shown that championship-caliber play throughout the season, so I'm not dropping them too far. But with that being said, they need to get their act together and find something to rely on other than Kevin Love and his 7 blocks... Hopefully, for my bracket's sake, Western Kentucky proves to be the remedy to whatever is ailing this team.

3. Tennessee Volunteers - First off, this is the third 'eers team in the Sweet 16, joining the Mountaineers and the Musketeers. I just found that interesting. Second, it pains me to think that my top three teams are all on my less-preferred list of teams. Regardless, the Volunteers proved something to me with their win over Butler. Sure, they struggled and were forced into overtime, but they managed to knock out a team that was way better than a 7-seed. I don't understand why nobody was talking about how the #10 team in the country got a 7-seed in this tournament. Butler is a solid, underrated team, and the Volunteers took the punch and then punched right back. That will be a great learning experience for this team going forward.

2. Kansas Jayhawks - If this were a list of teams most likely to choke, Kansas would be on top of that list. If this were a list of teams I'd most like to see lose, again, Kansas would claim the top spot. Even in this list, Kansas is right behind the top team, having demonstrated solid and deep talent in this tournament just as they have all season. Now they get a matchup with Villanova, which should be an easy victory, before taking on either Wisconsin or Davidson. If Bill Self doesn't make it to the Final 4 this year, the Kansas fans will be in an uproar. I'm looking forward to that...

1. North Carolina Tar Heels - I think it's safe to say that the Tar Heels have been the most impressive team of the tournament thus far. Two games over 100 points... Not bad, I'd say. So instead of continuing their praises, I will just say that they should watch out in the coming weeks, because seldom does the team playing the best on the first weekend end up cutting down the nets after the third weekend. And I was a little disappointed when CBS changed to the final 10 minutes of the game only to see Tyler Hansbrough complaining about a foul call and his teammates still jacking up 3's, despite the fact that they were up nearly 40 points. It's not good to tempt the fates, my friends...

So Shawn Marion... how's that team leader thing going?

2008-03-19T22:33:00.010-07:00

I was preparing to write something about the Miami Heat and their abysmal season anyway, but when I saw "54" scroll across the ticker last night and realized I wasn't looking at a Big Ten score, I knew I had to mention something about this compilation of basketball players that were once known as the Miami Heat. 54. The Miami Heat scored 54 points yesterday in a game against Toronto, a solid team but not exactly a juggernaut, even in the East. How far the mighty have fallen - and more specifically, their newest member.

Now I realize that Shawn Marion may just be biding his time until he opts out of his contract this offseason and hits free agency, but you have to believe that at least some part of him is disappointed he is where he is. The in-fighting was well documented. Amare Stoudemire and Shawn Marion each wanted to be a bigger star, yet there was only so much sky for the two of them in Phoenix. Marion, apparently looking at all the success Joe Johnson has had in Atlanta, even took pause when asked if he'd rather be a role player on a championship-caliber team or the leader - both on the floor and in the bank account - of a mediocre team. Despite the winning, something had to be done.

Several thousand miles away, the Heat had their own issues. Dwyane Wade hadn't been healthy since their championship and the aging Shaquille O'Neal was on the books for two more years at $20M a pop. The salary structure of the team was built to compete, not rebuild. So the Heat and Suns decided upon one of the more questioned trades in recent memory. It had the surprise of the Pau Gasol trade, but with much more baggage. How would the Suns mesh with Shaq? Does this help the Suns or hurt the Suns? Are the Suns going to pay the big guy? What will Steve Kerr's legacy be after this all played out?

Now I have no record of this, but when the trade went through, I thought it was a good move. I thought the Suns took a chance they needed to take. Steve Kerr showed his willingness to take risks, and if it didn't work, deep down you knew that he would take the risks necessary to bring the team back. But what nobody focused on was that Marion, after years of complaining, finally got his wish. He had his opportunity to shine brightly in the Miami sky. Of course, nobody would notice. And rightly so, because people just don't pay attention to losing teams. Nevertheless, it was what he wanted. It was what he needed. And it's costing him every day.

Granted it's still a small sample size, but looking at the main principles of the trade, it seems to be working for 75% of the people involved. For the Suns, what began as a rocky adjustment period has slowly been evolving into what Kerr had envisioned. Now riding a 6-game winning streak, including a grind-out win against the Spurs and a run-and-gun victory against the Warriors, the Suns are 12-8 since the deal, 9-6 with O'Neal in the lineup. They sit a mere half game behind the top spot in the conference - nearly the same position from before the trade - and Shaq's presence has propelled Stoudemire to an impressive scoring run. The Suns appear to be figuring it out, with thanks to Shaq who has filled his role perfectly. Averaging a double-double for the first time since the '04-'05 season, Shaq is controlling his game, while shooting an impressive 62% from the field. If I were in the West, I would fear this team right now. They can run with you, or they can grind it out. While there is still a lot of season to go, this recent 6-game streak has to have Kerr smiling... and breathing a sigh of relief.

On the other side of the country, Miami is also reaping the benefits of the deal. They managed to get O'Neal's money off the books to allow them to rebuild. They officially put Wade on the shelf for the rest of the season, maximizing their ping pong balls for this summer. It may not be pretty, but this is what the Heat were looking for in the deal as well. The hope is that they can keep Marion for their re-tooling this offseason, but even without him, they will have plenty of cap space and a solid draft pick to fill in the roster around Wade.

So that brings us to Marion. He would be the 25% that was missing from before. Now without Steve Nash feeding him the ball and controlling the offense, allowing Marion to roam as he pleased and do all the little things he does so well, the Matrix is perhaps beginning to realize that maybe he should have just taken the blue pill...

Let's take a look at the numbers, shall we?

Team	G	GS	MPG	FG%	3p%	FT%	OFF	DEF	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	TO	PF	PPG
PHX	47	47	36.4	0.526	0.347	0.713	1.8	8.0	9.9	2.1	2.0	1.5	1.04	2.50	15.8
MIA	16	15	37.6	0.459	0.258	0.690	3.1	8.1	11.2	2.5	1.9	0.9	2.31	2.10	14.3

Marion's stats are down nearly across the board. His scoring has dropped by 1.5 points. His shooting percentages are down significantly in all three categories. Blocks have nearly halved while turnovers have more than doubled. Nearly the only stat that has positively increased is rebounding, but a closer look shows only offensive rebounds have improved, which would make sense considering the increased amount of opportunities for those.

Now would any player's stats drop on a team that would struggle to reach the NCAA Sweet 16 this weekend? Absolutely. But the real question is how much money is Marion losing with his newfound struggles? I know this is the NBA where somebody is always willing to overpay (see: Thomas, Isiah), but shouldn't this be a flag to GMs around the league? Without Steve Nash spreading the floor and creating open shots, Marion has struggled. And, rumor has it he's complaining once again, this time about lack of effort from his teammates.

So for every game that goes by, Marion finds himself with declining statistics and more stories of alienating teammates. The losing itself will most likely drive Marion to opt out of his final year of his contract, but then what? Will he get the money he thinks he deserves? Probably, but I don't think it's as likely as if he had stayed with the Suns. Winning breeds success. Success breeds money. And all Marion had to do was keep his mouth shut for a few more months, make another deep run into the playoffs, and then taken his numbers to any team that could afford him.

Not that it is all his fault, since he was not the only player in that locker room, but Marion's open talks about leaving - and his trade demand before the season - has brought him here. As he and the players around him barely squeaked by the half century scoring mark last night, you have to wonder if Marion is still blinded by dreams of dollar signs and the delusion of leadership, or if he has finally, thousands of miles from where he once called home, realized how good he had it.

If he still needs convincing, he can just ask Shaq.

March Madness & April Agony

2008-03-18T19:33:00.006-07:00

With the demise of my Illini this season, my television focused less on college basketball these last several months than, say, pretty much anything else that was on... Now that they have officially been put out of their misery, it is time to put the injury-plagued and foul-prone career of Brian Randle behind and return my attention to the NCAA event that transcends any team affiliation - March Madness.

As I first glanced through the brackets on Sunday, I realized two very important facts. First, I, unfortunately, had not followed the sport this season with the tenacity and dedication required to make strong, sound decisions regarding the outcomes of these games. And second, I, fortunately, had not followed the sport this season with the tenacity and dedication required to make strong, sound decisions regarding the outcomes of these games...

Now while these may sound contradictory, there is a level of reason here. Every season, I scour over countless basketball games and compare incomparable statistics, attempting to discover some hidden secret that will give me the advantage over the other countless number of people also filling out their brackets. And in the end, I get a few upsets right, miss a few others, and have had a decent run at predicting the Final Four. When all is said and done, I have won more than I have lost. I do not consider myself an expert, but I bring a certain sense of logic to my selections.

Nevertheless, every April in recent memory - excluding 2003 (thank you, Carmelo) - has brought me agony as I look back at everything that went wrong with my bracket, and how I am often paying out winning prizes to those who had no idea what they were doing while filling out theirs. Oh, Florida is a great vacation spot, huh? That makes total sense...

However, my lack of attention this season has left me with the realization that I am now one of those people this year. I am the relatively clueless one who couldn't name a single player on Sienna and has no idea how many turnovers Kentucky has per game. Granted, I don't believe I will ever reach the point of choosing teams based on average annual campus temperature, but I am not that far off this season. Perhaps this time, this year, the smaller climb when filling out my bracket will result in a softer fall come April.

So, on with the picks...

East Region
Sweet 16
#1 North Carolina over #8 Indiana
#2 Tennessee over #7 Butler
#3 Louisville over #11 St. Joseph's
#5 Notre Dame over #4 Washington State
Final 4
#1 North Carolina over #2 Tennessee

Midwest Region
Sweet 16
#1 Kansas over #9 Kent State
#2 Georgetown over #10 Davidson
#5 Clemson over #13 Sienna
#6 USC over #3 Wisconsin
Final 4
#1 Kansas over #6 USC

South Region
Sweet 16
#1 Memphis over #8 Mississippi State
#2 Texas over #10 St. Mary's
#3 Stanford over #11 Kentucky
#12 Temple over #4 Pittsburgh
Final 4
#2 Texas over #1 Memphis

West Region
Sweet 16
#1 UCLA over #8 BYU
#3 Xavier over #11 Baylor
#5 Drake over #4 Connecticut
#7 West Virginia over #2 Duke
Final 4
#1 UCLA over #3 Xavier

National Championship
#1 UCLA over #1 North Carolina
Final Score: 82-76

Fighting Illini... Two Wins from Elimination

2008-03-15T00:08:00.004-07:00

In the immortal words of George W. Bush (the Will Ferrell version), this is hard!

With additional time on my hands, I believed that contributions to this page would increase. And in some senses it has. But for the most part, I have discovered that in searching for my voice, I first need to determine what I want to say... I have always considered myself more of a writer than a blogger, trying to evaluate and analyze the depths beneath the obvious surface. I felt I owed it to myself and all my non-readers to provide more information than just a series of quick hits or brief updates readily available on any news site. But the internet isn't exactly the place for slow and deliberate information. Countless news stories have come and gone, yet the thoughts in my head regarding each have remained just that... thoughts, never believing that I had enough information for a full-fledged posting.

So, does that leave me as a writer trapped within a blog website, or does that make me a blogger without anything to say? That's my conundrum. Do I continue my steady pace and maintain a stream of long articles? Do I succumb to the blogger life of quick thoughts and quicker posts? Should I even be using the word 'conundrum' in a sports blog? These are the questions I have faced in the time since my last post.

However, in these uncertain times, I can take solace in one familiar and comforting scenario. It's Big Ten Tournament time - the Illini must be in the semifinals.

Sure enough, as I sit here, my Illini are indeed once again in the final four of the Big Ten, for the 10th time in the 11 seasons of the tournament. After suffering through what can best be described as a disappointing season (and can at worst be described by words I shouldn't use in either articles or posts), Bruce Weber and Co. have once again strung together a couple wins to make things interesting.

After knocking off Minnesota for the second time this season - still not sure how that happened - to close out the regular season, the Illini squeaked out a last-second victory over young Penn State in the first round, then battled Purdue for 45 minutes before finally sending the Boilermakers to March Madness on a losing streak.

You can't blame me for having thoughts of 1999 race through my head, when the 11th-seeded Illini won three straight tournament games after having won only three Big Ten games all season, and nearly crashed the NCAA party before finally losing to Michigan State in the championship game. Could it happen? Could this team somehow put together two more victories and make the tournament?

For a few hours, it appeared that to do it, the Illini would have to once again go through Indiana, whom they have played tough, but finished on the short end of the scoreboard each time. (I won't even get into the Eric Gordon/Kelvin Sampson thing) But after Indiana's stunning loss in the quarterfinals, Illinois' path just got a bit easier. And lo and behold, who is this squaring up against my team in the semis?

As the only team to have lost to Illinois twice this season, Minnesota can't exactly feel good about themselves, but with this Illini team, I'm not taking anything for granted. Nevertheless, Bruce Weber has to like his chances in this one. And then? Sunday may bring another matchup against either Wisconsin or Michigan State, who, shall we say, handled Illinois this season. Do I think the Illini pull out the upset? Well, no...

But let's just take a moment and reflect on this possibility. Illinois, as flawed as it is, has a legitimate shot of reaching the tournament. A team that has blown leads of all sizes this season... A team that cannot close out games... A team that goes cold for several minute stretches at least twice a game... A team that had no go-to guy until a late-season emergence of freshman Demetri McCamey, and even that is streaky at best... A team in which Brian Randle and all his athleticism has a seat ready for him when he inevitably fouls out... A team in which Chester Frazier stays healthy as well as he scores, neither a good thing... A team, if not for that pesky foul limit, you would actually consider fouling every time down the court knowing that that's essentially a defensive stop. And even then, I think I would still foul Shaun Pruitt. This team is a mere two wins away from post-season play. Apparently, that's why they call it March Madness.

I will root for them. I will cheer for them. I will hope that they can overcome the odds and win these next two games, causing chaos in the selection committee office Sunday evening. But even after all that, I have watched this team enough to know one thing for certain...

The Illini will be eliminated in the first round, but at least they had the chance to dance.

Why I Hate Ben Gordon

2008-03-02T17:12:00.005-08:00

From my vantage point, it's often difficult to observe the nuances within a basketball game. While Section 312 of the United Center offers an enjoyable perch to take in a game, it lacks the advantage of slow-motion replays or a courtside perspective. The intensity in the voice of the head coach, the subtle grabbing of jerseys in the low post, the eye contact between players on a developing fast break... All of these aspects of the game elude me as I peruse the action from the upperdeck. However, over the years, I have continued to follow the ups and downs of this team, compiling observations and formulating opinions from my bird's eye view. And one thing has become increasingly clear.

I hate Ben Gordon.

Obviously, this is only regarding the game of basketball. I have never met Ben Gordon, nor have I heard stories that would sway my opinion of him as a person. But he isn't getting paid millions of dollars to be my friend. He's getting paid to play basketball. And in that respect, he's failing me miserably.

Now, I will spare you the traditional complaints that are typically levied at this point. It is well documented that Ben Gordon's size and defensive abilities are a liability in the backcourt, creating mismatches for opponents and forcing Kirk Hinrich to expend his energy chasing opposing shooting guards. And with Ben Wallace's departure, the shivers in my spine are all the evidence I need to know that nobody on the Bulls frightens me more putting the ball on the floor than Ben Gordon. But no, the source of my frustration is in his supposed strength. Ben Gordon is failing me as a scorer.

The main responsibility of a primary scorer, which is how Gordon sees himself, is to provide the team with not only a spark, but an anchor to lean on. However, box score after box score, Gordon finds himself all over the scoring spectrum. His supporters will describe this phenomenon by saying Gordon is "explosive" on the offensive end, able to catch fire and drain shots from any point on the floor. But one man's "explosive" is another man's "erratic". Personally, I like to call it volatility. And like any chemistry experiment, as every sports team is, volatility can prove disastrous to a team already teetering on the brink of a long off-season.

So how volatile is Ben Gordon? That is what I wanted to find out. Charting the per-game point totals throughout the season, Gordon has amassed 951 points for an average of 19.4 points per game. Nothing too shocking. I then calculated the standard deviation for the data, a mathematical measure of statistical consistency. For Ben Gordon, the resulting standard deviation (stdev) was 8.8 points, or 45% of his per-game average (what I will call his volatility). Simply put, there is approximately a 68% chance that Ben Gordon will score 19.4 plus or minus 8.8 points in any given game.

Without any context, this number appears meaningless. Is this good? Is this bad? How do other players stack up? Well, I'm glad you asked. Here is Gordon compared to a couple other players you may recognize:

Ben Gordon: 19.4 ppg, 8.8 stdev, 45% volatile
LeBron James: 30.3 ppg, 7.7 stdev, 25% volatile
Kobe Bryant: 28.2 ppg, 9.2 stdev, 32% volatile

Of course, it is probably unfair to compare Gordon to these two players. After all, James and Bryant are battling it out for MVP honors this season. But I do find it interesting that Bryant, who is universally renowned as "explosive" displays a more consistent point total than Gordon, even with his frequent 40+ point games. Regardless, let's lower the bar from this lofty height and see what we find. How does Gordon compare to another undersized shooting guard (Allen Iverson) and the shooting guard I wanted the Bulls to draft two seasons ago (Brandon Roy)?

Ben Gordon: 19.4 ppg, 8.8 stdev, 45% volatile
Allen Iverson: 26.9 ppg, 7.2 stdev, 27% volatile
Brandon Roy: 19.3 ppg, 6.9 stdev, 36% volatile

Still not looking good for Ben. Iverson shows surprising consistency for his style of play. And Roy has provided that anchor to the upstart Blazers. Both players come across as more solid offensive players than Gordon. Shall we lower the bar even farther? How about two players that are scoring about the same as Gordon... one, a rookie that you would expect to be inconsistent and the other, a familiar face to long-time Bulls fans:

Ben Gordon: 19.4 ppg, 8.8 stdev, 45% volatile
Kevin Durant: 19.3 ppg, 6.3 stdev, 34% volatile
Jamal Crawford: 20.7 ppg, 7.6 stdev, 37% volatile

Look at those numbers again. Ben Gordon, now in his 4th year, is more inconsistent than a rookie and a player that Chicago fans turned on years ago. Not exactly a good sign for the supposed offensive leader of this team. Now, after going through these numbers, I wanted to believe I was wrong. I wanted to believe that this had to be some anomaly in the data. So I went back over Gordon's entire career, performing the same calculations for each season. Here is what I found:

'07-'08: 19.4 ppg, 8.8 stdev, 45% volatile
'06-'07: 21.4 ppg, 9.4 stdev, 44% volatile
'05-'06: 16.7 ppg, 8.4 stdev, 50% volatile
'04-'05: 15.4 ppg, 7.2 stdev. 47% volatile

Those numbers seem rather consistent, don't they? Could it be that this is just the player that Ben Gordon is - capable but mind-numbingly frustrating? Now in his 4th year, Gordon should be showing some sort of signs that he can be counted on to carry this team without disappearing for games at a time, especially for the $10+ million per year he's expected to seek in free agency this summer. With this thought, I took one more approach. Gordon, to be fair, has been pulled in and out of the starting lineup, often playing for entire games or fighting for minutes. Perhaps Ben's inconsistencies are merely a factor of his inconsistent playing time. So I created more plots, this time normalizing each of Gordon's games as a 48 minute affair, eliminating the variable of minutes played. And what do the per-48-minute statistics show:

'07-'08: 26.7 ppg, 10.6 stdev, 40% volatile
'06-'07: 30.5 ppg, 11.7 stdev, 38% volatile
'05-'06: 25.4 ppg, 10.3 stdev, 41% volatile
'04-'05: 29.6 ppg, 12.4 stdev. 42% volatile

Some of the variability seems to have been removed, but even a normalized Ben Gordon in his best season still provides less consistency than Jamal Crawford! And he doesn't seem to be improving. This is just who Ben Gordon is as a basketball player. And again, I have not even touched upon Gordon's defensive deficiencies or propensity for turnovers. This is purely an evaluation of his "strength". On a running team as a 3rd or 4th option (like Phoenix, perhaps), Ben Gordon could prove valuable. But to base your scoring on this undersized shooting guard is tempting the fates... you never know which Ben is going to show up.

Fortunately, the likelihood that the other 29 GMs in the league read this blog is minimal at best, and it only takes one to believe Gordon is the missing piece to their championship puzzle. I hope John Paxson understands this and takes appropriate action this summer, spinning Gordon into a backup point guard, rebounder, or draft picks. Based on the numbers, there is only one way Ben Gordon can be counted on to help this team after this lost season: sign-and-trade.

The Rex Grossman Era is officially ov... Wait, what?!

2008-02-24T13:29:00.009-08:00

In the roller coaster that is Rex Grossman, news of his re-signing to a one-year deal can be compared to the corkscrew after the giant drop - my stomach hadn't completely settled from the 400-foot free-fall that was the Chicago Bears 2008 season, and now this new turn of events has left me shaken, slightly disoriented, and confused about which direction we're now headed. I'm frightened what my souvenir picture is going to look like after this one...

It was supposed to be over. It WAS over. When Lovie Smith benched Grossman in lieu of Brian Griese after Week 3's game against the Cowboys, that, for all intents and purposes, was it for the former Florida quarterback. But then Griese, as career backups tend to do, struggled as well, and when Griese was injured against the Raiders, Grossman came to the rescue. Griese's mysteriously ailment kept him out of the following game, opening the door to Grossman, and to be fair, Rex played a consistent mediocre for the next several games. It was no longer over. There was talk about how to handle the situation this off-season, but Grossman appeared to take care of that, as he, through no fault of his own, once again found himself on injured reserve. The door was shut and the key was hidden in Kyle Orton's beard. That was that, right?

But these last several weeks, quotes had been coming out of both camps that Rex wanted to give it another go with the Bears... and that the Bears were open to it. Now here we stand, with Grossman signing a one-year deal and a chance to compete for the starting quarterback position. And after the sense of nausea finally subsided, I think it was the right move.

Obviously, some explanation is required on my part here. Despite what the last three paragraphs might suggest, I have never been a Grossman-hater. I believe he has the ability to perform on the NFL level. But after the years and years of injuries and frustrations, it just seemed like the right time to part ways. Both the Bears and Grossman appeared to need fresh starts. If the two were dating, the breakup exchange would have assuredly contained the line "I know we have a lot of history, and maybe someday things will be different, but I need to see what else is out there..." But in the NFL, you're allowed to look, get a feel for what else is out there, all while still remaining committed to your player or team. After each had a chance to survey the field, we got to this point for three key reasons:

Lack of Options for Rex - With the number of quarterbacks to enter the league the last several years and the number of solid signal callers expected this April, the probability of Grossman going elsewhere to assume the starter role seemed remote at best. Most likely, Grossman would be asked to compete for the job, so if he was going to compete anyway, why not stay within a system with which he is familiar?
Weak Free-Agent Quarterback Class - For all the criticisms of Grossman, he's got nothing on most of the free-agents floating around. Have you seen this list? It's headlined by Derek Anderson, whose late-season decline should have the Browns concerned and Brady Quinn ecstatic. And improbably, the talent level drops significantly after him. Daunte Culpepper? Byron Leftwich? Trent Green? What year is this?
Lack of Trade Options - Donovan McNabb is the name most often included in trade conversations, but how much would the Bears have to give up to get McNabb? In case you haven't noticed, the Bears currently have a lot of holes, and sending draft picks over to the Eagles for a quarterback who has missed three to seven games in each of the last three seasons isn't going to solve that problem. And what does Philadelphia need? Wide receivers, of which we currently have none. The other alternative I have heard is J.P. Losman, but he's essentially the Buffalo version of Grossman anyways - skilled but erratic - and not exactly an upgrade. Surveying the rest of the teams, it doesn't get any prettier.

Of course, even though Angelo has potentially solved the quarterback issue for this season, this should not prevent him from picking up a young QB in the draft - Chad Henne, I'm looking in your direction in Round 2. I'm hopeful Angelo feels the same way. And I believe he does. Grossman didn't exactly come in hoping for a one-year deal, but the Bears are hedging their bets. They know that this signing is a risk. But the one-year deal means that there are only three ways that this can turn out:

Grossman Struggles - This is the option most of us believe has the highest probability of occurring. In this scenario, Grossman either leads the Bears through another sub par season or finds himself on the bench in favor of Orton. Easy enough, end of season, and the Grossman story is over without any impact to the salary cap. Really this time.
Grossman Succeeds, Re-signs - The best case scenario is Grossman finds the magic that carried him through the first half of the 2006 season (Arizona game, excluded). The Bears tag and/or re-sign Grossman, hoping to build upon his newfound confidence.
Grossman Succeeds, Leaves - We've all learned that in sports, loyalty only goes so far, so what if Grossman miraculously puts forth a Pro-Bowl performance, highlighted by his extraordinary stats despite the lack of a receiving core? You don't think another team would want to sign him? Well, thank you for your time, Rex. We now turn the team over to 2nd-year quarterback-to-be-named and once again roll the dice.

So in the end, it is not what I expected, but all in all, not the worst of choices. This now becomes a one-year salvage experiment with little to lose. Grossman is the best of a bad set of options. Succeed and we all prosper, fail and the Bears cut their losses and move on. So Grossman gets at least $3M he probably does not deserve, but he and Orton together provide whomever the Bears draft a year to sit on the bench and watch them play without wide receivers, a running game, or an offensive line, and gives Angelo another year to fill the holes. Just like any roller coaster ride, I don't know if I'll be satisfied or disappointed when it's over, but I can expect plenty of twists and turns ahead.

Grab the handle bar and let the screaming begin.

Divestment Analysis: The Malcontent Exchange

2008-02-21T16:36:00.010-08:00

I blame this on Eli Manning...

A month ago, things made sense. The best team in the NFL was winning. The NBA West was predictably formidable while the East was predictably horrendous. And there was no fear that I would one day "misremember" anything. But things are no longer that simple. Since my last post, the Giants held up the Lombardi Trophy, a slew of trades threw the NBA into chaos, and we learned that even needles in Roger Clemens' behind can turn into a partisan affair. We live in a world where the Manning brothers have won back-to-back Super Bowls. Apparently anything is possible.

Throughout it all, my intention was to comment on the insanity of it all. But that little thing called work kept interfering. I hope those who can make a career out of this appreciate just how lucky they have it. However, now almost three weeks post-Eli, the madness that was the NBA trade deadline has affected my team directly. Ben Wallace out, Larry Hughes in. This required my attention.

Now before we begin breaking this down, let's make one thing clear. The Bulls were not going anywhere before this trade, and they aren't going anywhere after this trade. This trade cannot be evaluated on the same level as most of the other deals that went through these last few weeks. The Lakers getting Gasol for essentially nothing, this trade is not. The Lakers, the Suns, the Spurs - essentially every team in the West - were making deals to improve their chances of winning a championship. This deal was about John Paxson doing what he's been doing since he assumed the role of GM - divesting himself of players that are no longer helping. From Eddie Robinson to Eddy Curry, Paxson has made a living cleaning house of the malcontents that continued to bring the team down. The only difference this time, however, is that Paxson is now divesting the very players that he brought in.

Now, my immediate interest is the Bulls, so my focus is on how I think this deal will affect the newcomers, as well as several current players. So let's start going through the list..

Ben Wallace - It's safe to say that this marriage was doomed from the start. Wallace never got over leaving his Piston teammates, and no matter how large those deposited checks were, the Bulls always remained the "they" that he first mentioned upon signing. He clashed with Skiles and continued to believe he could take any shot that didn't end with his hands grasping the rim. Bulls fans were expecting a lot for the price tag of this former Defensive Player of the Year, but in return, they received an aging player who showed that while he could still perform at times, becoming THE defensive post player versus A defensive post player was now beyond his basketball repertoire. His contract, although front-loaded, still far exceeded his production, and the Bulls were more than happy to part ways with Wallace and his paltry offensive skills - and that's not even mentioning his free throw percentage.

Paxson tried to make a splash two years ago, and at the time, many thought it was just what the Bulls needed. But say this about Paxson, he won't hold on to players to make a point. He recognized that the experiment failed and took action to correct it. Now for all of those who want to bring up Tyson Chandler in this discussion, shall I pull out the game tapes from the Chandler years? Tyson Chandler, I'm sure, is a great guy. But he would have never succeeded here. Skiles broke him down to the point that he couldn't be salvaged. I was at a game where Chandler's final stat line read 0-0-0-0-0-5, with the last digit being fouls. Yes, he seems to have turned around his career, but I believe that has more to do with Chris Paul than anything. Heck, David West is an All-Star now.

Joe Smith - Here's a player that surprised me this year. When he was signed, I was expecting a younger version of P.J. Brown that we saw last year. But Smith has easily been the most consistent player on the team this year. He has a nice shot and a high basketball IQ. But let's not kid ourselves. You don't build a team around Joe Smith. He is a very valuable piece on a contending team (e.g. the Cavaliers) but what is he going to do for the Bulls? He signed a short-term deal and wasn't going to be hanging around past this season anyways. If Paxson didn't trade Smith and he left after finishing his contract, everybody would be up in arms about wasting an expiring contract like he did with Brown last season. So yes, for the next couple years, the Bulls will have to face Joe Smith several times a year, but would that thought have stuck fear into the heart of Bulls fans before he brought his modest, yet solid, production to the United Center? I think not.

Larry Hughes - Now we're getting into the interesting aspect of this trade. From what I have read, the inclusion of Hughes was essentially what kept this trade from taking place earlier in the day. I am sure Paxson will spin this to say that Hughes fits a need in this club but know that if he could have gotten this done without Hughes, he would have. Of course, in the NBA, contracts much match within 15%, so if you're going to unload a bad contract, be prepared to take one back. Just as the Bulls were ready to unload Wallace, the Cavs are happy they found somebody to take their malcontent. But from a basketball standpoint, there is potential here. From all accounts, Hughes is a guard that loves shooting the ball, has the potential to explode for 40 or struggle to reach double-figures, and either can't or won't play the point. To me, this sounds very much like Ben Gordon. Of course, the differences here are Hughes is tall enough to guard opposing shooting guards and has appeared on the All-Defensive team in the past. Now even if Hughes may never appear on that list again, I think we can all agree that we will not be seeing Gordon ever even get a sniff of that honor.

So what does all that mean? It means that for a price of ~$13 million a year, we get a player who essentially is Ben Gordon with better defense. It sounds like a lot, but remember, Gordon turned down a contract of $50 million over 5 years, so really, Hughes isn't going to be much more expensive than Gordon would have been had he taken the deal (and probably the same cost it would take to sign Gordon now), and it will be for a much shorter period of time. Now I'm sure that Hughes' propensity to make bad decisions and jack up poor shots will eventually lead me to demand he be traded, much like it has done for my opinion of Ben Gordon, but what this deal does is give Paxson the flexibility of letting Gordon go via a potential sign-and-trade this offseason, removing the need to tie himself up with Gordon long term while testing out Hughes for a full season. If Hughes matures into a solid rotation guy with Thabo Sefolosha and Kirk Hinrich - a role that Gordon has never embraced - then Paxson can extend him before his final year. If not, then his contract would become one of the coveted "expiring" kind that Paxson can turn into another player. And yes, the same could have been said about Wallace's contract after next season, but the distinct difference is Wallace's impact on the salary cap would be "in addition to" versus "instead of". Joakim Noah and Tyrus Thomas are not going anywhere and Wallace's contract would just add to the front court payroll. But with Hughes, he's essentially taking the money that was allocated for Ben Gordon, not affecting the overall backcourt money.

Drew Gooden - Apparently a little known fact about the NBA bylaws is that not only do salaries need to match, but unusual hair styles must also be within 15% of each other. Drew Gooden and his neck beard now find themselves paired up with his former Kansas teammate, Kirk Hinrich. Whether that will benefit either of these players remains to be seen, but what the Bulls get back in this deal is essentially a younger version of Joe Smith. Their stats are similar, each scoring just over 11 points with Gooden, and his size, getting a few more boards a game. Gooden will basically pick up Smith's minutes right away and join the rotation with Joakim Noah, Tyrus Thomas, and most likely, more of Aaron Gray. This lineup gives the Bulls a lot of versatility, as they now have a defender (Noah), athlete (Thomas), scorer (Gray), and rebounder (Gooden) all under 27 to mix and match against their opponents. I think Gooden's point total will increase with the Bulls as well, as they'll spread it around more than the Cavs, primarily because they have to. Additionally, Gooden got some Finals experience with the Cavs and should fit in well with this team, both on and off the court. He has an immediate friend in Hinrich, which makes it one more friend than I believe Wallace had in his time here. And at 26 years of age, he still has room for improvement in the coming years.

Shannon Brown, Cedric Simmons - With players this young, the level of excitement and/or disappointment has to be tempered. Most likely added for salary cap reasons, Paxson and the Bulls get a cheap look at a couple of 22-year-olds for the remainder of the season. Cedric Simmons has the size to possibly get some minutes down low. And Shannon Brown... as an Illini fan, the best thing I can tell you about Brown is I hated him when he was at Michigan State. He just had intangibles that could help the team. Now, I don't know if that will translate in the pros, and he has been quite turnover-prone this season, but I don't think he'll have any trouble matching Adrian Griffin's production, and his contract is small and manageable, which makes him worth a look.

Joakim Noah, Tyrus Thomas, Aaron Gray - This deal obviously opens the door for Noah and Thomas to pick up significant minutes between now and the end of the season. Noah had his well-documented dust-ups with Wallace, but the free-spirit has been playing well, and the crowd definitely is enjoying his energy in a season of lethargy. Thomas, who was on the verge of earning the dreaded "bust" label, has also been playing well with his time. With the Bulls going nowhere this season, the idea of these two kids getting more minutes. removing the negative Wallace influence, and letting us see exactly what we've got, is perhaps the best upside of this entire deal. It should also mean more minutes for Aaron Gray, who just moved up a step on the depth chart. While he's still glacier slow on defense, Gray has a few post moves that can lead to points. While he'll never be a star, he is just a rookie at this point who could develop into a solid bench contributor and a source for some immediate offense against the right teams.

Ben Gordon, Thabo Sefolosha, Kirk Hinrich, Chris Duhon - There were already too few minutes to go around, and now Larry Hughes and Shannon Brown join the club. With six guards looking for time, it's safe to say that there will be some movement here this offseason. Nobody should get too comfortable, as rumors have surrounded pretty much every one in this bunch at some time in the last couple years. Gordon appears to be the most likely to go, as he will be a restricted free agent, and as mentioned above, Larry Hughes makes Gordon expendable. Duhon most likely isn't long for this team either, although there is less of an immediate answer for who will replace him. My only concern with this trade, however, is the status of Sefolosha. His development since the departure of Skiles and his insertion into the starting lineup is what Paxson envisioned when he selected him in the middle of the first round. His size takes pressure off of Hinrich, and he's willing to mix it up inside, which is a nice change of pace. And if the Bulls ever decide to go "small" and run it up the court, the combination of Hinrich, Sefolosha, and Hughes offers much more size than the Hinrich-Gordon-Duhon lineup I've seen thrown out there from time to time. Plus, with more time, Thabo's offense should also improve, but the issue is Jim Boylan is looking to secure a job, either here or elsewhere, and the appeal of Hughes' scoring might convince Boylan to forgo some development for a few extra wins. I would hope that Paxson has discussed this with Boylan, but as I said, this is the one area of concern for me in this deal.

Cavaliers - It's apparent that Cleveland knew they had to do something. In one day, they got four new players for LeBron to reign over. The thinking is that Wallace can provide that inside presence for which he was known. Either Danny Ferry hasn't been paying attention, or the thought that pairing Wallace with Ilgauskas will move Wallace to a more relaxed role, letting him focus on what he does best. Joe Smith might actually provide the biggest boost to the team, taking over Donyell Marshall's salary slot but with much more productivity. He'll be a steady contributor, just as he was in Chicago. Wally Szczerbiak should provide a nice outside touch for when entire defenses collapse on LeBron when he's driving to the hoop. Will this get the Cavs back into the Finals? Perhaps. They potentially added some more consistent scoring and some rebounding. The question becomes can they gel in time. With the state of the Eastern Conference right now, they won't have to worry about it until Round 2, at the earliest.

Sonics - Brought in to help finalize this deal, the Sonics essentially continue to clean house of large contracts. With no player signed beyond next year, the Sonics simply prepare for their eventual move.

Bulls Grade: B
The trade isn't earth-shattering, and it still doesn't make up for missing out on Garnett and Gasol, but Paxson finally showed that he is willing to make some deals at least. Granted, the deals are to better position the Bulls for next season and beyond, but as previously mentioned, they were not going to compete for anything beyond the 8th seed this year. That became even more apparent after their loss to the Kidd-less Nets. With what should be a decent draft pick and some tradeable assets, the Bulls should be able to rebound next season after giving the kids some quality playing time for the remainder of this season. It's not a final product, but it's a start. Look for the divestment to continue this offseason.

NFL Scorecard - Super Bowl Predictions

2008-02-01T15:55:00.001-08:00

So here we are... After two weeks of hype, the game is finally before us. I think we're all pretty tired with the talk about Brady's ankle, Plaxico's prediction, and every other story line that has been jammed down our throat these last couple weeks. Of course, now comes the tricky part... the game itself. There's definitely a wave of public support for the Giants, as the spread came down by a couple points while we've been waiting for the game. And I keep hearing people talk about "if there's any team to beat the Patriots, this is the team..." Why do I feel like we're all forgetting exactly how good the Patriots have been this season? Sure, they haven't been as dominant as they were when they were putting up Tecmo Super Bowl numbers, but they've proven that they can win playing any style in any condition. And there's been much talk about the Giants winning 10 straight road games. Um, well haven't the Patriots won 8? Why does that never come up? Oh, that's right, because they're undefeated and that's a much better storyline...

Of course, on the flip side, I convinced myself to jump back on the Patriots point spread bandwagon in the conference championship game and that cost me, even though I specifically said that they had not been playing well against the spread in recent weeks... again showing why I'm doing this as a hobby and not for actual cash... But now everybody is rested, and Bill Belicheck has had two weeks to prepare a game plan for Eli Manning. Let me repeat that... Bill Belicheck, two weeks, Eli Manning. I know Manning has played well this post-season, but it's still Eli Manning. Up until last year, Peyton wasn't exactly known as a big-game QB, so we know that there's a familial history with screwing the proverbial pooch here. The Patriots defense may bend more than it would like, but it hasn't been breaking. They're veterans and savvy and always good for a few big plays in a big game. Jacobs and Bradshaw will definitely test the Patriots throughout the game, but all in all, it's not exactly a matchup that the Patriots haven't managed to overcome... see Week 17, for example.

On the other side of the ball, you have the Giants defensive line against the Patriots offensive line, which is essentially where this game will be won or lost. If the Giants can get pressure on Brady, then they can limit the big plays and scoring opportunities, keeping the game close late where anything can happen. But if the league's best offensive line can keep Brady's jersey clean, then you can expect an aerial attack that will completely tear apart the Giants mediocre secondary. I mean, R.W. McQuarters is running around back there. He was awful 5 years ago. Did he mysteriously get better now? I don't think so. So can the Patriots offensive line hold their own against the Giants. I'm guessing yes. They've done it against everybody else this season, especially the vaunted Jaguars and Chargers defensive lines the last two games. So you have the Giants offense evenly matched against the Patriots defense and the Patriots offense one step away (albeit a big step) from being able to score at will.

And, of course, my favorite aspect of this entire game is the potential history involved. One way or another, the Patriots are going to be forever known for this game. Win or lose, it's a front page headline. But I've always been a fan of watching records be broken, not being close to broken. Hell, I still remember when the Buccaneers went 16-0 in the aforementioned Tecmo Super Bowl. Now that was an upset... But to get this close to perfection, this close to shutting up the '72 Dolphins, this close to forever being on the short list of greatest teams ever... it's tough to picture Brady and Belicheck screwing this one up.

So why am I going with the Giants against the spread? Well, there are a few reasons. One, the Patriots, for as good as they've been this decade, have won their three Super Bowls by a combined 9 points. They don't blow people out. Up until early this season, they were never known for that. Two, the Giants can put up points too, and their defense can create opportunities for Eli and Co. And three, that's a pretty big spread. Granted, the AFC has dominated the NFC of late, but 12 points is quite the spread. And as I've mentioned, the Patriots haven't been doing all that well against the spread of late.

With that being said, I think the two weeks between games really hurts the Giants momentum, while it allowed Brady to get fully healthy from however bad his injury really was. The Patriots give up points, but pull out the win, thus earning their 4th Super Bowl this decade, just like I predicted before the season began. As for their opponent... well, let's just say I was a little off on that half of my prediction.

New York Giants (+12) vs New England - Final Score: New England 38 - New York 27

Last Week: 1-1
Playoffs: 6-3-1
Overall: 127-125-14

NFL Scorecard - Round 3 Predictions

2008-01-18T10:40:00.001-08:00

Naturally, the only game I got wrong last week was the only one that I had any rooting interest in. I had the Colts in my playoff pool. And while I did not want to see them win the title again, we go against the spread, so there was hope for me to have my cake and eat it too. Instead, Billy Volek and Co. ruined the party, knocking off a surprisingly sloppy Indianapolis team off at home. If Tony Dungy retires, does he reputation go back to choking in the playoffs, or is his 9-9 record tempered by the fact he went 4-0 last year to win it all?

In other news, I may be the only person outside of Boston rooting for the Patriots at this point. Everybody is rising up against them, it seems. I'm not sure why. Sure, there's SpyGate, and their coach might be the biggest d-bag in the league, but aren't they fun to watch? I guess I'm just partial to history. I want them to go 19-0; I wanted Brady to get to 50 TD passes. It's just more fun that way. I was rooting for Manning to break Marino's record a few years ago and I don't even like him or the Colts. And of course, I've always had a special place in my heart for Randy Moss since he helped me win my fantasy football championship his rookie year.

Back in the NFC, I'm sure there are a lot of storylines to be had, but I'm not overly interested. Sure, everybody's favorite quarterback, Brett Favre, is a win away from returning to the Super Bowl. I guess I'm fine with that. I've heard some people say that they want the Packers to win because then the Bears can say they beat the world champs twice. Uh, I don't think that gets engraved on the trophy.

So with that, we move on to my picks. Based on the first two rounds, the worst I can do is go .500 for the playoffs, as I'm 3 games up with 3 to go. Obviously, I'm shooting for a little better than that. Last week, I thought all of those were easy picks. This week, I'm not so sure.

New England (-14) vs San Diego - I did well picking against the Patriots last week, as they've had their fair share of close games, and if anybody has the overall talent to hang close, it'd be the Chargers. But I still believe that Norv Turner is Norv Turner, and the Chargers just appear to be too banged up. If Tomlinson is limited, and Gates is limited, and Billy Volek is prominently involved, I'm worried for the Chargers. They managed to get by Indy, but can they do it two weeks in a row? Even if Philip Rivers plays, I don't feel comfortable picking him to cover for two straight playoff road games. They Chargers may have come together this season, but there were still plenty of ugly road games scattered among the victories. On the flip side, the Patriots offensive line will have to keep the pressure off of Brady, which they've managed to do all season. I think you'll see something similar to the Jaguars game from last week... it'll be close to start, but the Patriots will pull away as they start to find the holes in the Chargers' defense. Then a turnover or two at the end will make it seems the Patriots dominated more than they really did.

New York Giants (+7) at Green Bay - The game in Green Bay last week looked like two different games. The footage they showed from the opening kickoff compared to the footage from the 4th quarter reminded everybody how quickly the weather can change, and how easily it can affect a game. The Seahawks were not prepared for that matchup, as their running back has become a shell of his former self, leaving Hasselbeck to try to carry his team through that snowstorm. It's supposed to be cold yet again, and the wind could play a role, but the Giants are better constructed to compete in those elements than the Seahawks ever were. With their collection of running backs, the Giants should be able to control the game better than Seattle, looking to keep Favre and his assortment of weapons off the field. Of course, when Favre does find the field, I think he'll find plenty of holes in that New York secondary. I'm expecting a competitive, close contest. I still believe the Packers will win, but not by seven. This has a 4-5 point feel to me.

Last Week: 3-1
Playoffs: 5-2-1
Overall: 126-124-14

NFL Scorecard - Round 2 Predictions

2008-01-11T12:20:00.002-08:00

When I first decided to start this blog, I figured it'd take me a little while to get into the habit of writing consistently, but eventually, I'd get to the point where I'd branch off into plenty of topics across a variety of sports, writing something every few days. And to some degree, that happened, just not officially. I didn't realize how easily it is for other things to get in the way. I knew work would continue to be work, but grad school applications have really limited the amount of time I've been able to commit to this page. And because of that, I have several half-started posts, ranging from the Cubs rise and inevitable collapse, the White Sox rise-free collapse, the resurgence of the Blackhawks, the implosion of the Bears and Bulls... Actually, looking back at it, it's probably better that I didn't write about all of that, because then I would have been even more depressed than I am from simply looking at my NFL picks...

Why am I sharing this now? Well, because with the number of games ever-reducing, it doesn't take me as long to make my football picks, meaning that I have more time - and more room - for other, random topics. And for this post, the topic is my lack of posts. I'm hoping as things wind down for me, I can start taking more time to just write for the shear pleasure of writing, instead of all these ancillary things I've been working on. Ah, to just focus on sports... what I life that would be.

Until that point, however, let's just get back to focusing on the NFL playoffs. Last week, I recovered slightly from my late-season collapse, only missing on the Giants. Not sure what I was thinking there. I even commented on how I didn't trust the Bucs... then went ahead and took the Bucs. This explains why I ended the season around .500.

This week, there are plenty of big spreads, as nothing is less than 7.5 points. This is supposed to be the round where the bye week helps, but that's a lot of points to be throwing around. Regardless, each game is making me think, so maybe Vegas knows what they're doing afterall...

Jacksonville (+13) at New England - I'm hearing more and more people falling in line behind the Jaguars as the team that can, and will, beat the Patriots. I still don't believe that's going to happen, as Jacksonville, even with David Garrard legs, can't maintain the firepower needed to roll with the Patriots. If the Willie Parker-less Steelers can score in bunches against this team, I'm wondering what the Patriots will do. So why am I going with the Jaguars to cover? Well, I've picked the Patriots nearly every week this season. It worked for the first 10 weeks or so, but the New England hasn't been covering these huge spreads of late. And you never know what the weather in Foxboro is going to be like either.

Indianapolis (-8.5) vs San Diego - Does anybody think that Peyton Manning has forgotten his 6-interception performance the last time the Colts met the Chargers? Neither do I. At home, in the playoffs, the Colts put the collective foot on the gas and roll right past the Chargers. Philip Rivers on the road in a playoff game... yeah, I'll lay the points.

Green Bay (-7.5) vs Seattle - At the beginning of the season, who would have predicted that the Packers were the team with the solid running game while the Seahawks would struggle. Shaun Alexander is a shell of his former self, and while I may be interested in this team next year (as I've seen Illini Rashard Mendenhall projected to Seattle in a couple mock drafts), I'm definitely not interested in them this season. Ryan Grant has the Packers rolling, and they should make it to the conference championship with ease.

New York Giants (+7.5) at Dallas - Is T.O. healthy? Is Romo focused? Those are the questions flying around before this game, but the real question is when two teams play for the 3rd time in a season, don't you expect it to be close? I mean, they pretty much know everything about each other at this point, don't they? It's not like if the Patriots played the Dolphins three time... these are two playoff teams going head-to-head. I see a close game for the right to play the Packers next week.

Last Week: 2-1-1
Overall: 123-123-14

NFL Scorecard - Round 1 Predictions

2008-01-04T22:46:00.001-08:00

Well, that was slightly depressing... While I was in Pasadena watching my Illini get run over by USC (I swear, there was one moment where I thought we were coming back, but boy, did that escalate quickly...), my picks were getting similarly crushed in the final week of the regular season. I missed a couple games by that stupid half-point hook, dropping my overall season record to one game under .500. I was riding high after 14 weeks, only to come crashing down. Somewhere along the line, I must have flown too close to the sun...

But now, the playoffs are upon us, and depending how I do, I may or may not add this total to my previous record. Considering I didn't watch much football last week, I'm wondering how much that will affect my view of some of these teams, but fortunately, most teams decided to take the week off as well, so hopefully I didn't miss much.

In other news, my fantasy seasons both ended with disappointments. But the guy I drafted for using the default Yahoo list won the title, so that's fantastic... I did however win my confidence pool, which means I either work with equally inept prognosticators or I can at least pick winners, just not against the spread.

Seattle (-3.5) vs Washington - I realize that the Redskins are hot, but this is still Todd Collins we're talking about. I mean, there's a reason he wasn't a starter for ten years, right? Now he's in a hostile environment in the playoffs? True, the Redskins are a great story at this point, with everything that they've been through, but when you get down to football, Seattle is still the better team, and should take this one at home.

Jacksonville (-2) at Pittsburgh - The Jaguars dominated the Steelers in their last matchup, which sort of caught everybody off-guard. They won't be able to surprise this time, but their defense is solid and the one-two punch of Taylor and Jones-Drew can grind it out through the suddenly vulnerable Steelers defense. Willie Parker is out, which puts a lot of pressure on Najeh Davenport and Roethlisberger. Big Ben has been in this position before, but while I like Davenport, I don't think he can carry this team past the Jaguars.

Tampa Bay (-3) vs New York Giants - I still can't believe that the Bucs are hosting a playoff game. Who saw that coming? Oh well, it is what it is, and I think it'll be the difference in this game. The Giants, who valiantly played their starters for the entire game against the Patriots, are bound to suffer an emotional letdown this week. It's almost as if they knew that their only chance at greatness this season was knocking off the Patriots. Well, that didn't work, so now what? I'm thinking the offseason...

San Diego (-9) vs Tennessee - Well, this is why Norv Turner is here, right... to get the Chargers deeper into the playoffs than Marty Schottenheimer. That's a slightly scary thought, but they shouldn't have any problems with the Titans, who will either have an achy Vince Young or a Kerry Collins-esque Kerry Collins under center. After a slow start, the Chargers have started to put it together, finishing with an impressive 11-5 record against the spread. I see no reason they won't add to that this week.

Last Week: 5-10-1
Overall: 121-122-13

NFL Scorecard - Week 17 Predictions

2007-12-26T16:19:00.001-08:00

I scratch and claw my way all season, finally compiling a record that I could be somewhat impressed by, and then just watched it crumble down these last couple weeks. I'm not exactly sure what's happened here. Maybe with my time off of work, my brain has just shut off? That can't be it since it was never really on to begin with. I'm still getting the winners correct, as I'm hanging on in my confidence pool, but against spreads, my picks have just gone south.

Fortunately, I'm fairly certain there's nobody reading this blog, much less basing wagers on my suggestions, so I can take solace in the fact that nobody will be coming after me with an aluminum bat.

Looking back, I've noticed that the weather has definitely played a role in several of the games I've gotten wrong, keeping matchups closer than I would have expected. Or in the Bears' case last week, the Packers complete inability to cleanly punt the ball came back to haunt me, although I enjoyed watching it.

Another factor that I've noticed is the picking of games on Wednesdays. I did okay the first week or so when the schedule changed, but not so hot of late. Of course, since I'm flying out to Pasadena to see my Illini play in the Rose Bowl, I can't exactly wait until Saturday for this week either, so here we go again, as I try to stay over .500 for the season in the least predictable week there is... Week 17.

New England (-14.5) at New York Giants - The Giants will most likely be sitting their starters, as they've secured the #5 seed in the NFC. I would think that the Patriots would rest their starters at some point as well, but not before Tom Brady gets at least two touchdown passes to claim the season record. And knowing Bill Belichick, I'm guessing he'll get Brady at least three, just for the hell of it...

Buffalo (+7.5) at Philadelphia - The Eagles have been playing solid football of late, I'll give them that. But I still feel the Bills are a team that will compete until the end, and ultimately give themselves the worst possible draft pick without having actually made the playoffs. I've seen it too many times before with Dick Jauron.

Tampa Bay (+2.5) vs Carolina - I hate these games, and not just because the Panthers are involved. Will the Bucs just roll over in this one, knowing their playoff spot is secure? Will they want to recover from last week's loss to the 49ers to head into the playoffs on a high note? I'm guessing they don't want to back in on a losing streak so they'll hold off the Panthers at home and whoever ends up quarterbacking for Carolina.

Cincinnati (-3) at Miami - Carson Palmer has a lot of work to do next year to return to the status of elite quarterback. And here I thought I got a bargain in the 3rd round of one of my fantasy drafts. But in the end, the talent on offense for the Bengals is far and away better than that of the Dolphins. I think after winning against Baltimore and then fighting division rival New England, the 'Fins are pretty much spent on this season.

Washington (-8.5) vs Dallas - Here's another play-or-sit games. I would assume that the Cowboys would rest up, but with a bye week next week anyways, shouldn't the starters go for a little bit just to keep sharp? And wouldn't you want to get Terry Glenn some snaps with Tony Romo before the playoffs? I'm thinking this one will be close until the 3rd quarter, when the Cowboy starters sit and Todd Collins takes control of the game... If the Redskins make the playoffs, does that mean we have to stop making fun of Joe Gibbs?

Green Bay (-3.5) vs Detroit - How far has Detroit fallen after their solid start to the season? Well, they're an underdog to a team with nothing to play for... and I'm picking against them. The Packers were embarrassed last week and will try, at least for a half, to kick start themselves before playoff time. That'll be enough time for the Packers to take control of this game. Mike Martz will go pass-happy playing catchup, and the Packers' lead will just increase...

Jacksonville (+6.5) at Houston - I gave the Texans a chance last week, but they pretty much just mailed in that game, which makes me think that they've mailed in the season, which makes me think that even the Jaguar backups will be able to handle this Houston team. The Texans showed plenty of life against the Broncos a couple weeks ago, but I think that's more of a reflection on Denver than anything Houston is doing.

Chicago (+2.5) vs New Orleans - When this game was first put on the schedule, people were thinking it would help determine home-field advantage in the NFC. Wow, was that way off... I'm still sticking with the Bears and Kyle Orton, mostly because this will be played outdoors in the cold and hopefully they can get a repeat performance of last week. I like Drew Brees but I think that the rest of the team will just be looking to go home for the offseason.

Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Baltimore - Willie Parker is lost for the season, which brings on Najeh Davenport into the full-time picture. Willis McGahee is also out, which brings... who exactly? The Ravens are in absolute ruins while the Steelers look to keep sharp going into the playoffs. Here's another game where I don't expect to see the Pittsburgh starters in the second half, but the Ravens offense is so inept, it won't matter.

Seattle (+2.5) at Atlanta - The Falcons showed they won't go down without a fight, as they took the Cardinals to overtime last week. But looking deeper into that matchup, it was the Cardinals... The Arizona Cardinals... That is nothing to brag about. I mean, I did pick the Cardinals to cover, but that's because I'm dumb. Seattle takes care of this one, even with nothing to play for. Atlanta stumbles into what will be a very interesting offseason.

San Francisco (+10) at Cleveland - No matter what Cleveland does in this game won't matter as the Titans-Colts matchup will basically determine if the Browns make the playoffs or not. A few weeks ago when I said I didn't trust the Browns, even though they'll still probably back into the playoffs... Yeah, I may not have been right about a lot these last few weeks, but I was dead on on that one...

Tennessee (-6) at Indianapolis - Vince Young in the playoffs... It's been an interesting way to get there, but with a win over a team that's used to resting starters at this point in the season, that's exactly where VY and his Titans will be. Personally, I don't think they really belong in the playoffs, and their stay is going to be short, but with the Colts resting up for a likely trip to New England, the Titans path is rather clear.

Minnesota (-3) at Denver - I thought about this one for quite a while. The Broncos, despite their awful season, definitely play better at home. And the Vikings may already be eliminated by the time they play this game. But the Broncos had high expectations coming into the season, the Vikings had no expectations. I'm thinking the last game would be a lot easier to get up for when you think you're building to next year rather than questioning what the hell just happened.

San Diego (-8) at Oakland - I've been picking a lot of road teams these last few weeks, which might have something to do with my horrible record in December, but I can't change that philosophy in this matchup. I wanted to pick the Raiders, as the Chargers will most likely only play their starters for a half, if that. But they took care of the Broncos last week doing just that, and JaMarcus Russell will be making the start... It's not going to be pretty for the Raiders this week, but at least they're getting him some playing time.

St. Louis (+6.5) at Arizona - Barely scraping by the Falcons at home is not a good way to close out the season. It doesn't get any easier in the final week for the Cardinals, as the Rams, who have nothing to play for and have already gotten past their "what just happened" portion of the season look to build towards next year. With everybody healthy, this is a better team than the Cardinals, and they'll show it this week.

New York Jets (-6) vs Kansas City - This is the last regular season game I'm going to predict? Really? Well, that's depressing. Um, this is probably the end of the line for Chad Pennington. Um, Larry Johnson is still out. Uh... that's all I got. Is anybody going to watch this one anyways? I could make up a final score Sunday night and nobody would challenge me on it. Oh well, it is what is it...

Last Week: 5-10-1
Overall: 116-112-12

NFL Scorecard - Week 16 Predictions

2007-12-19T17:06:00.001-08:00

Well, that wasn't pretty. I'd been fair good about avoiding the awful weeks that just destroy an overall record, but with weather playing a role, I wasn't able to withstand an entire season of the law of averages, with Week 15 definitely bringing me much closer to .500 than I would have hoped to be at this point.

Regardless, here I am again picking Sunday games on Wednesday, which I'm sure doesn't help matters. But those are just excuses. I'm here to make picks, and that's what I'm going to do!

As always, spreads are found here.

Pittsburgh (-8.5) at St. Louis - Yes, the Steelers are struggling, and yes, if Fred Taylor can run all over them, what will Steven Jackson do? But it's still the Steelers, who are now fighting for the division, against the Rams, who are just playing out the string. The Steelers are a better team, and they tend to perform when in the national spotlight, even when that spotlight is only seen by a handful of people on the NFL Network.

Dallas (-11) at Carolina - I was struggling with this one because of Tony Romo's thumb. Does anybody even know who the backup on Dallas is? Anybody? I had to look it up myself... It's Brad Johnson. Now if he sees the field, this pick can't be taken seriously, but if Romo's good to go, then they should take care of Carolina. I'll blame last week more on Jessica Simpson than anything. It's fun to blame her for stuff...

Cincinnati (+2.5) vs Cleveland - The Bengals pretty much ruined my spoiler label when they laid an egg against the 49ers last week. Not that they were spoiling anything in San Francisco, but damn, how do you lose to that team? Well, they're back at home this week playing their division rivals who are still battling for the division. I'm still not sold on the second half of the season from these Browns though. Jamal Lewis has shown more life than I expected, but I just don't trust them at this point.

Green Bay (-9) at Chicago - With home field advantage on the line, the Packers will show no mercy against the only team to beat Green Bay on their home field this season. The Bears are woeful, and that's being kind. Kyle Orton vs. Brett Favre. Wow...

Houston (+7.5) at Indianapolis - The Texans come in rested and rolling after their Thursday victory against the Broncos. I don't think they'll win this game, but the Colts have been doing just enough to get by, playing a lot of games closer than I would have expected. Their record against the spread isn't lights out, so I think the Texans keep it close.

Kansas City (+5) at Detroit - This just feels like a field goal game to me. Whatever the score ends up to be, however, I have no intention of watching this contest. Both teams had promising starts only to see themselves self-destruct into the atrocious teams we'll see on Sunday...

New England (-22.5) vs Miami - The Patriots haven't been covering much these last few weeks since the spreads have gone to NCAA-levels, but at some point, the Patriots are going to reassert themselves. I'm thinking it'll be here, where the Dolphins no longer have anything to play for, now that their date with history has been called off.

Buffalo (+3) vs New York Giants - I may give Dick Jauron a hard time, but he always has his players ready to play, even when there's nothing left to play for. The Giants are reeling, as they tend to do when the temperature drops, and playing their upstate neighbor, if you assume the Giants are actually from New York, isn't going to stop the decent.

Jacksonville (-13) vs Oakland - Oakland's only weapon, Justin Fargas, is out for the rest of the year. That's not a good thing. The Jaguars are coming off a big victory but I don't see a letdown for these guys, as they're closing in on the top wild card spot. Am I starting to believe in the Jaguars? What is the world coming to?!

New Orleans (-3) vs Philadelphia - Gutsy game by the Eagles against the Cowboys last week. I should have seen that coming as the Eagles typically play Dallas tough. And great decision by Brian Westbrook, even if it may have cost some fantasy players a playoff victory. But now going against the Saints, who still have some playoff aspirations, I can't see the Eagles holding the New Orleans offense down like it did Dallas', unless of course, Drew Brees starts dating Ashlee Simpson...

Minnesota (-6.5) vs Washington - I'm still riding the Vikings bandwagon all the way to the playoffs. The Redskins took care of the sliding Giants last week, but now in the dome up in Minnesota, I don't see Todd Collins faring as well, and the Vikings defense is strong enough to contain Clinton Portis.

Arizona (-10) vs Atlanta - These next two games both show up as "no-line" and I'm not entirely sure why. I'll check back later in the week, but no matter what the spread is, I think both of these games are going to be blowouts in favor of the home teams... Boy, was I wrong about the Falcons. They just pretty much folded up shop for the season against the Bucs, didn't they. I see no reason why that won't happen again this week.

Seattle (-10.5) vs Baltimore - The Ravens loss was another one I should have seen coming. I mean, everybody knew that was Miami's best chance at a victory. It just seemed too easy, didn't it? Ugh, that's the hardest thing I've had to deal with while making all these picks this season. The obvious pick... I seem to talk myself out of it more often than not.

(I just updated the spreads for the last two games. Don't feel like writing new descriptions though.)

Tennessee (-9) vs New York Jets - The Jets pretty much just completed their season by not getting absolutely embarrassed by the Patriots last week. What more do they have to play for? Nothing? Sounds about right... The Titans haven't been impressing me lately, but against the lifeless Jets, they'll win handily at home.

Tampa Bay (-7) at San Francisco - No way the 49ers win two in a row. It just can't happen. I don't care that it's already happened this season, it's just not happening. The Bucs continue to play solid football, which is something not often seem in San Francisco of late. They'll handle the 49ers easily as they fine tune before the probable rest of some players before the playoffs.

San Diego (-8) vs Denver - Another "obvious" game I should have picked differently last week was the Broncos game. I've known all year that they play well at home, awful on the road. How hard is that to figure out? Well, I missed it, and they got crushed by the Texans. Not making the same mistake this week, as the Chargers are starting to find their groove before the playoffs kick in. Their quest, get in Indy's half of the bracket...

Last Week: 5-11
Overall: 111-102-11

NFL Scorecard - Week 15 Predictions

2007-12-12T18:25:00.001-08:00

I love how NFL football will be taking place 4 days a week from here to the end of the season, but it's rather difficult trying to make all the selections on a Wednesday night when there are still plenty of stories to be had before the majority of teams take the field. Of course, you, as a reader, don't really care, primarily because you don't exist, but that's a different story...

Anyways, we're a game into the last quarter of the season and you'd think by this point, you'd have a pretty good idea of what was going to happen with these teams, but that's obviously not the case. Other than the Patriots winning and the Dolphins losing, it's still pretty much a crap shoot. Let's see how I do this week...

Spreads for the week can be found here.

Denver (+1) at Houston - These two franchises are tightly bound together, due to the coaching relationship and, of course, Ron Dayne... Denver seems to play well at home and offer a glimmer of hope before letting their fan base again and again, but I'm going with them this week because I don't think Houston will be able to stop the Bronco rushing attack, while I'm still not sure who'll be running the ball for Houston.

Cincinnati (-8) at San Francisco - When your team loses Trent Dilfer and you honestly think "what do we do now?!", you know you're in trouble. There isn't much left for the 49ers this season, as it's been a waste of a season ever since they started 2-0. The Bengals aren't going anywhere either, but at least they've shown some life. And I'm counting on Rudi Johnson in this one, so don't let me down...

New Orleans (-3.5) vs Arizona - I'm thinking that when they don't have to worry about how they're going to get the ball to Reggie Bush, the Saints will do a better job of spreading the ball around, as they did on Monday night against the Falcons. Kurt Warner also spreads the ball around. Unfortunately, it's too often to the other team. Saints take care of the reeling Cardinals at home.

Atlanta (+12) at Tampa Bay - Yes, the Falcons are without a coach. Yes, Jeff Garcia is back for the Bucs. But I just get a feeling here that the Falcons will want to give their former coach a giant "F-you" as a parting gift. Sadly, it seems that Bobby Petrino did a better job at motivating his team by leaving than anything he did while on the job.

Baltimore (-3) at Miami - This game just made me throw up in my mouth, and that's without actually watching any of it yet. I want to go with the Dolphins, I really do... But the way they're playing, the injuries they've faced... Willis McGahee should run all over them this week.

Buffalo (-5.5) at Cleveland - I wasn't sure about the Browns early, then there was a short period where I thought they were solid, but I'm back to not knowing. Have they had an impressive victory in the last 2 months? They barely held off the Jets. Baltimore took them to OT. I'm officially concerned for the Browns. I think they've come back to earth. They play better at home, but Buffalo, when not playing New England, has been taking care of business lately.

Green Bay (-9.5) at St. Louis - Brett Favre in a dome is always a risky proposition, even if he's been shaking that label lately, but with their new-found running game, the Packers will want to continue to reassert their dominance, as they did last week against the Raiders.

Jacksonville (+4) at Pittsburgh - I only have one home team covering at this point. That has me a little worried, but I think I'm finally starting to buy into the Jaguars. Typically, that means they'll collapse in this game, but I'm going with them anyways. The Steelers will get caught trying to do too much. The Jaguars will just go about their business, knowing that they don't have much to lose.

New England (-24.5) vs New York Jets - I was wondering what this line was going to be since like Week 9. I think you could have made it 45 and I still would have gone with the Patriots. Is there any way that the Patriots let up off the gas in this game? In a way, wouldn't that be even more embarrassing to Mangini, if the Pats started taking knees in the 3rd quarter?

Seattle (-7) at Carolina - The Panthers stink at home. The Panthers also just stink. They've essentially mailed it in for the season while the Seahawks are still fighting for playoff positioning. Really, that's all I've got for this one... How much could I possibly say about Vinny Testeverde anyways? Uh, he's still old.

Tennessee (-4) at Kansas City - Here's another team that appears to have either given up or just lost so much of their team that they can't compete with anybody anymore. The Chiefs look done, which is what one of my fantasy teams is after Larry Johnson first sucked, then just went down completely. I knew that was going to happen... why didn't I just take Joseph Addai like I wanted to?

Indianapolis (-10.5) at Oakland - Seriously, why am I going with all the road teams? Well, I'm not changing that strategy here, with the Colts just getting into their late-season groove like last year and simply running over everybody. The Raiders are in rebuilding mode... not a good strategy when facing the world champs.

San Diego (-9.5) vs Detroit - I called the Ravens letdown against the Colts last week. I don't see this game being any different than that. Detroit let one slip away last week, all but ending their playoff hopes. The Chargers, lucky to get out of Week 14 with a win, won't let it get that close this week, as the Lions are emotionally done for the rest of this season.

Dallas (-10) vs Philadelphia - This game concerns me a bit, the divisional matchup is always tricky in the NFC East and you never know when Brian Westbrook is just going to go off. But the Cowboys crushed the Eagles in Philly and I don't see how either of these teams has changed much since that time.

New York Giants (-4) vs Washington - Both these teams have beaten the Bears in the last few weeks, but that's really not something to brag about. Although the Giants are two up on the Vikings for the #5 seed, the Vikings hold the tie-breaker and the Giants have that Patriots game looming, so a win here is key to try to lock up the better seed. The Redskins have a shot at the playoffs, but it's Todd Collins leading the charge... TODD COLLINS!

Minnesota (-9.5) vs Chicago - Kyle Orton, Garrett Wolfe... feel the excitement! This is what it's come down to for the Bears, as they're just playing out the string to see what they have for next season. The Vikings have their 2-runningback attack going up against a defense with no defensive tackles healthy enough to play. Um, that's not good. It's going to be a long Monday night for us Bears fans...

Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 106-91-11

NFL Scorecard - Week 14 Predictions

2007-12-05T22:23:00.001-08:00

Didn't have the opportunity to get to all the picks yet so I'm just going to go with the Thursday day at this point and come back to fill in the rest. It's a little different technique from last week, but after looking at those results, it's probably not a bad idea...

Chicago (+3) at Washington - The Bears' defense has been awful, but the Redskins offense hasn't exactly lit it up lately. On the flip side, the Redskins defense has been decent, and surprisingly, so has the Bears' offense... sorta... maybe? Okay, I still can't stand Ron Turner, but in the battle of two teams that are pretending to still be in the playoff race, Chicago manages to force Jason Campbell into a couple turnovers to pull out the win.

The remaining picks will be appended at the end of this post later this week.
--------------------
Well, that didn't go how I was hoping. On the bright side, Thursday's game may have just ushered in the Kyle Orton era, so at least that's something to look forward to... Dear God, I can't believe it's come to that. I'm excited about the potential of the Orton era. Before I make myself sick, let's see if I can keep my record from going the direction of Rex Grossman's knee... backwards...

Jacksonville (-10.5) vs Carolina - I keep going against the Jaguars and I keep being wrong. I also keep going against the Panthers and keep being right. Combine those two factors and I'm thinking I go with the Jaguars this week. Carolina is an absolute mess and even though they've played better on the road, the Jaguars are looking to bounce back after their loss last week.

Dallas (-10) vs Detroit - The Cowboys have had 10 days to prepare for the imploding Lions. If it were possible to have negative carries in a game, I think Mike Martz would somehow integrate that into the offense. That doesn't make for a good offensive strategy against the Cowboys defense. I don't see anybody in the NFC holding the Cowboys back until they clinch home field. Unfortunately for the Lions, they haven't done that yet.

Buffalo (-7) vs Miami - Starting off with three big favorites, but really, after being absolutely embarrassed by the Jets - the JETS! - last week, is there any hope for Dolphins fans? This is a fan base that waited anxiously to see if Ricky Williams could help their team this year, and were even let down with that. They're not good, but the Bills sorta are, in a Dick Jauron, respectable way.

New York Giants (+3) at Philadelphia - I went with the Eagles in my confidence pool so not sure why I'm getting a different feeling about this game now. It's not like any team is any more dysfunctional than the other. They both have QBs that seem to have some mental issues to overcome. Both have solid RBs that seem to get dinged up. I guess I'm thinking the Giants defensive line will cause enough trouble for the Eagles this week.

Oakland (+11) at Green Bay - It looks like Brett Favre will play this week, and my fantasy team thanks him, but I'm thinking there will be a lot of running and grinding out the clock on both sides of the ball. Oakland seems to be scrappy late in the season, so I'm thinking that this is too many points in what will probably be a low scoring game.

New England (-11) vs Pittsburgh - Ah, the game of the century until the next game of the century... With all the talk about the Patriots all of a sudden appearing vulnerable, don't you think they're going to use that as motivation, especially in front of their home fans? I don't think they'll be looking ahead to the Jets or Dolphins this week, so I'm predicting the Patriots get back on track, especially since everybody seems to be jumping off their bandwagon right now.

Tennessee (PK) vs San Diego - Here's another game I'm switching since filling out my confidence picks yesterday. I don't think I fully appreciated Philip Rivers on the road before right now. This is a dangerous game for him, especially if Albert Haynesworth and Co. can slow down Tomlinson. Well, I'm going to be right on one of my two predictions... Hey, look, I'm like a professional prognosticator!

Cincinnati (-6.5) vs St. Louis - Third-string quarterback on the road with a questionable offense line? Really? The Bengals defense can't possibly be that bad to lose this game, can they? I'm still liking Carson Palmer to finish the season strong (come on, fantasy team!), while the Rams... I'm not sure what they're going to be doing for the rest of the season. I'm guessing Steven Jackson is going to fall short of his 2,500 total yard prediction...

Tampa Bay (-2.5) vs Houston - A part of me still refuses to believe that Tampa Bay is leading their division and will almost certainly see the post season. Man, the NFC is bad. But not as bad as Sage Rosenfels! Actually, Houston has gone 2-1 against the NFC, but they haven't faced the Bucca... oh, I can't even say it...

Seattle (-6.5) vs Arizona - Both these teams have been solid against the spread and I've been going against them more often than not. Now I've got to pick one of them, so despite the divisional matchup, I'm giving the points, as Seattle's playing at home with a chance to clinch the division. With Boldin possibly out, it's too much to ask Fitzgerald to carry this team alone.

Minnesota (-8) at San Francisco - I never thought I'd be giving this many points with Tarvaris Jackson on the road, but somehow, here we are... The Vikings are the trendy pick to make some noise here at the end of the season, and while I often like to go against general opinion, I'd have to agree in this case. They're running over everybody, with both backs now healthy and rested. Boy, I can't wait until Purple Jesus plays the Bears at home next weekend...

New York Jets (+3.5) vs Cleveland - Anybody else feeling less and less fuzzy about the Browns every week? They had a nice start with some solid wins, but they've got me worried right now, and I don't even care about this team. They may still make the playoffs, but I think they're going to back into them.

Kansas City (+6.5) at Denver - Well, here are two teams that have sufficiently imploded. Earlier in the season, they lost to the Packers back-to-back, which isn't too bad. Then they just went down back-to-back to the Raiders. That's not good... Denver won handily in Kansas City earlier in the season, but neither team has been playing well lately, so I'm guessing this comes down to a field goal.

Indianapolis (-9.5) at Baltimore - If this isn't a letdown game for the Ravens, then I don't know what is. Going against the Colts, who have quietly progressed through another stellar season, the Ravens wouldn't find themselves in the same position as last week, and that's probably good for all involved.

New Orleans (-4.5) at Atlanta - Here's a game that looked a lot more intriguing when the schedules first came out. Now? Uh, not so much. Is there really anything to say about this game? Reggie Bush might be out, so there's that. Um... I think I'm just going to root for former-Illini Pierre Thomas. Not sure what's going to keep your attention though...

Last Week: 6-8
Overall: 97-84-11