The Current Market Sentiment

27/2/2012 - The Current Market Sentiment

mail@fx-recommends.com (Walid Salah El Din) — Mon, 27 Feb 2012 16:03:00 +0000

The British pound is still holding most of its last week gains versus the greenback despite the current easing of the risk apatite in the first US trading session of this week which lead it to ease back to these current levels after it could break its recent resistance versus the greenback by the end of last week at 1.5883 reaching 1.5899 despite the contraction of UK Q4 GDP by 0.2% q/q as it was expected growing yearly by 0.7% while it was expected to show yearly growth by 0.8% and also the preliminary slump of UK quarterly total business investment by 5.6% which it was expected to show decreasing by just 0.7% after rising by 1% in the third quarter of last year following strong rising in the second quarter by 11.6% showing the strong need for the current QE plans of BOE.

God Willing, the markets are waiting ahead today for the voting results on the second bailing out plan of Greece in the germane parliament and later this week for the next EU summit meeting which is expected to discuss the issue of rising the EFSF amount under the pressure of the G20 recent meeting demand for trusting in funding the IMF efforts to help Europe to get over its debt problems.

while the cable is expected to face resistance now again at 1.593 which is still containing its previous rising from 1.5231 until now and the breaking of it can lead to facing the psychological level at 1.6 which can be followed by another resistance a 1.6091 before 1.6128 and 1.6164 while the way down can be met by important supporting level at 1.564 which could contain another falling of it last week following the minutes release of the recent MPC meeting on the 9^th of this month which have shown voting in favor of increasing BOE's assets purchasing plan by Stg 75 Bln by its members miles and Posen while the other 7 members were preferring increasing by just Stg 50 Bln to not increase the current markets worries about UK economy and the current pressure on it amid the easing of the global economic growth pace and the EU debt crisis negative impacts on the economy which dampened the confidence in the business spending and consuming spending.

But the British pound could succeed to rise again underpinned by the rising of the risk appetite which has been fueled by increasing of the market certainty about the European funding of the Greek debt by the issuance of the second bailing out plan choosing helping Greece over letting it to the defaulting and its consequences and so, the pressure came back on the greenback helping the cable to form a second bottom above 1.564 giving its technical support to rise while breaking 1.564 was supposed to lead to meeting another supporting level at 1.5515 which can be followed by another one at 1.5449 before 1.5319 which breaking it can lead to 1.5231 again.

Kind Regards

FX Market Strategist

Walid Salah El Din

E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

http://www.fx-recommends.com

13/2/2011 - The Current Market Sentiment

mail@fx-recommends.com (Walid Salah El Din) — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 10:07:00 +0000

The Single currency has started the week underpinned by the Greek parliament approval of new austerities measures including 22% cutting of the minimum wage and also cutting of 150k public sectors jobs by 2015 with 15k of them to be cut within this year to reduce this year deficit to GDP percentage 1.5% to smooth the way for the EU Fin ministers to an announcement the beginning of the €130B second bailing out plan for Greece later this week when they meet in Brussels to help it to avoid default on 20^th of next month, when it is to meet €14.4b due to be paid by God's will.

The single currency could open the week above 1.32 versus the greenback in the beginning of this week after it has closed last week below it on worries about passing these new austerities measures through the Greek parliament amid streets riots against them in Greece.

The Single currency came also under pressure by the end of the week with the ECB's worries about the inflation upside risks easing down significantly suggesting keeping its stimulating efforts for longer period putting pressure on the borrowing costs with no fear of the prices rising.

The ECB has removed from its assessment last Thursday after keeping the interest rate unchanged at 1% its recent repeated mantra saying that the inflation is expected to be above its target for several months ahead replacing it with risks to the medium-term outlook for price developments remain broadly balanced.

On the upside, they relate to higher than assumed increases in indirect taxes and administered prices as well as increases in the commodities prices while the main downside risks relate to the impact of weaker than expected growth in the euro area and globally and that will ensure a firm anchoring of inflation expectations in line with the ECB aim of maintaining inflation rates below but close to 2% over the medium term and such anchoring is a prerequisite for monetary policy to make its contribution to supporting economic growth and jobs creation in the euro area.

The ECB is expected to start offering new 1% yearly 3 years loans to the EU banking sector with easier collateral rules can open door for the small banks too to get use of them which can make the demand for this new round of loans more than last December round which has ended with 489b by lending 523 banks forming another weight on the single currency over the short term and over the long term, if these amples of liquidities have not been used as buffering for capital restructure of these banks not as a given chance for carrying risky assets longer or loading higher riskier assets getting use of the interest rate differential between them and the ECB offer which can lead to strong unreliable exposure for making a quick profit specially if the growth pace continued to be at its current soft rates.

God willing, EURUSD can meet now resistance again at 1.3320 whereas it has failed to continue rising up last Thursday easing back to 1.3154 last Friday and in the case of getting over 1.3320, it can another resistance at 1.3546 before 1.3613 while getting down again from here can be met by supporting levels at 1.3154, 1.3088, 1.3025 before the psychological level at 1.30 which can be followed by another supporting levels at 1.2930, 1.2874 before 1.2631 again whereas the pair could rebound to these current levels underpinned by easing of the markets EU Debt crisis worries on successful EU bonds auctions could drag its yields down sufficiently comparing with last November highs thanks to the ECB efforts for lowering the cost of borrowing.

Kind Regards

FX Market Strategist

Walid Salah El Din

E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

http://www.fx-recommends.com

27/1/2012 - The Current Market Sentiment

mail@fx-recommends.com (Walid Salah El Din) — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 15:23:00 +0000

The gold is still trying to add to its recent gains which pushed it up trading above $1700 psychological level after it could easily get over it following the Fed's decision to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent anticipating that the current economic conditions including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.

The decision was not widely expected by the Fed after the market has seen recently improving of the

economic performance especially in the labor market with the falling of the unemployment rate to 8.5% in December which is the lowest since Feb 2009.

The Fed's economic assessment has shown its current expectation of having longer time than the markets were pricing for reaching the economic stability which can warrant a rate hike increasing the probability of having more easing measures with the inflation slowing down and this was one of the reasons which was weighing down on the gold prices as a hedge against inflation but after this assessment, the market can wait now for easing movement by the Fed accompanied with the inflation upside risks easing in US.

As we have seen recently constant falling of US CPI to reach 3% yearly in December from 3.4% in November from 3.5% in October after reaching 3.9% in last September which is its highest level since September 2008 suggesting that there can be deflation pressure again to face the US economy which lead the Fed before to take the QE2 decision in the beginning of November 2010 for fighting it and stimulating the economy putting pressure on the cost of borrowing.

God willing, the gold can face now resistance again $1762 and breaking it can open the way for another resistance at $1802 which can be followed by resisting levels above it at 1827, 1844, 1885 before its highest level at $1920 which has been reached on 6^th of last September while the way down can meet supporting levels now at $1648, $1627, $1592 before $1523 which could contain its falling from $1920 driving it up to reach these current levels.

Kind Regards

FX Market Strategist

Walid Salah El Din

E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

http://www.fx-recommends.com

24/1/2012 - The Current Market Sentiment

mail@fx-recommends.com (Walid Salah El Din) — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 08:12:00 +0000

The single currency has found strength this week to get over 1.30 psychological level versus the greenback again as the markets have shrugged off the delay of reaching an agreement between Greece and its creditors from the private sector as they have done last week by ignoring downgrading the credit rating of 9 of the Euro area remembers and also the EFSF's bonds by S&P giving all of the EU countries a negative outlook driving the yield of the European bonds down further.

But The EU Fin Ministers meeting yesterday has come out yesterday with a new warning to Greece that it shouldn't expect more funds for bailing it even though the country's economy is worsening to push the single currency below 1.30 again.

The single currency has already opened the week below 1.29 versus the greenback on the worries about the results of the negotiations between Greece and IIF on the fear of the possibility of failing again to reach an agreement while its creditors' troika which consist of the EU, IMF and ECB has put this required agreement as a precondition before going on bailing out Greece while Greece is a head of meeting and new maturity of another 14.4b euros next 20^th of March.

The market is also waiting now to have a stronger indication about the EU economic performance which is expected to get better later this year as the ECB president Draghi has referred recently fueling the single currency recent rebound with today release of EU PMI Manufacturing index preliminary reading which is expected to show an improvement to 47.5 in January from 46.9 in December and also the preliminary reading of Jan EU PMI Services index which is expected to be 49.1 from 48.8 in December.

God willing, in the case of getting over 1.3051 whereas the single currency has eased back again, it can meet another resistance at 1.3075 before 1.3196 and breaking it can open the way for meeting another resistance at 1.3546 while getting down again can face supporting levels now at 1.2874 which could contain the pair dovish opening this week and breaking it can be followed by meeting another resistance at 1.271 before 1.2631 whereas the pair could rebound to these current levels underpinned more successful EU bonds auctions thanks to the ECB efforts for lowering the cost of borrowing and the optimism which triggered week a week ago by the release of EU ZEW economic sentiment which got better in Jan strongly to -32.5 while the markets were waiting for -48.7 from -54.1 in December and also Germane ZEW economic sentiment which has improved too to -21.5 which the market was waiting for -49.1 from -53.8 in December showing strong elevating of the investors confidence.

Kind Regards

FX Market Strategist

Walid Salah El Din

E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

http://www.fx-recommends.com

18/1/2012 - The Current Market Sentiment

mail@fx-recommends.com (Walid Salah El Din) — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 16:59:00 +0000

The British pound is still trying hardly to have a place above 1.54 versus the greenback despite the improving of the risk apatite on today news of the possibility of increasing the lending capacity of the IMF to be $1 trillion after Legarde's calling yesterday for boosting the ability to it in the face of the current strong challenges facing the global economy as the pressure on the British pound has continued again today with the rising of UK unemployment in the three months to November by 118k to reach 2.68m which is the highest amount since 1994 pushing up UK ILO unemployment rate of the previous 3 months to November to be 8.4% which is the highest since 1995.

These data highlight the need of more stimulating efforts from BOE after keeping its assets purchasing plan unchanged in the recent 3 meetings after adding 75b Stg in last October to be consumed within 4 months.

The industrial sector is also not in a better stance as the data have shown recently declining of Nov industrial productions by 3.1% y/y while the market was waiting for -2.2% after decreasing by 2.1% in October and also Nov UK manufacturing production which came down by 0.6% y/y which the market was waiting for easing by just 0.1% after falling in October by 1% to assure what has come in the BBC's report last week of failure of the manufacturing sector to grow in the fourth quarter of last year.

From another side, the NIESR has expected growth in the 3 months to December by just 0.1% from 0.3% of the 3 months to November last week and also the British commercial chamber has indicated that the UK economy is looking in need for more than BOE stimulating plans now as the government should encourage the company borrowing too for helping the economy to recover.

The inflation pressure is looking easing in UK in the same time as what has been expected before by BOE as UK CPI has come down again in December to 4.2% from 4.8% in November from 5% in October after rising to 5.2% in September to lower the worries about the inflation upside risks of taking further easing steps putting pressure the British pound from another side.

God willing, the cable is expected to face a resistance at 1.5523, in the case of maintaining a place over 1.4507 and the breaking it can lead to a higher resistance at 1.5667 before 1.5778 while its way down is expected to met by supporting level at 1.5231 whereas it could rebound by the end of last week after S&P credit downgrading of 9 EU countries and getting below it can open the door for facing another supporting level at 1.5123 before the psychological level at 1.50

Kind Regards

FX Market Strategist

Walid Salah El Din

E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

http://www.fx-recommends.com

16/1/2012 - The Current Market Sentiment

mail@fx-recommends.com (Walid Salah El Din) — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 07:59:00 +0000

The pressure on the single currency continued in the beginning of this week versus the greenback as the fear of downgrading the credit rating of the EU countries has materialized by the end of last week by cutting the credit rating of 9 of the Euro area remembers by S&P giving all of the EU countries a negative outlook but Germany and Slovenia which has been cut by one notch like Slovakia, Malta, Austria and France which was having a triple A rating like Germany, Finland, Netherlander and Luxemburg who had been maintained with no change while Italy, Spain, Portugal and Cyrus have been cut by 2 notches as the credit rating downgrading risk was one of the elements which were weighing down on the single currency recently especially after S&P's warning on the 5th of last month by placing the credit ratings of 15 euro zone countries on negative credit watch.

The reactions of the EU Members were mixed. While Germany has decided to get use of this chance to praise the need of financial structure reforms placing the stricter budget rules soon which have been granted in the recent EU summit on the 9^th of last month highlighting the need of activating the EU stability mechanism soon too.

but France has lowered the risk of this action which was expected while some other members like Austria has seen that its is not an understood or right action while the EU members are doing the best for solving the EU debt crisis which caused this downgrading by S&P which have seen these efforts are not enough as it has announced after the action.

The EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Ryan has mentioned that this is an action from an agency has made mistakes before and this decision has been made with no right evaluation of the current efforts to stem off the budget deficit of the EU members.

But The EU Commissioner Janker has reacted to this action in an active way to the markets suggesting that this action can encourage the EU countries to increase the amount of the EFSF from its current amount at 500B euros which is worrying the markets as it is not sufficient to bail out countries like Italy which is in need to refund 341b Euros this year paying 54b as interest.

In this same time, the greenback is still getting strength by the improvement of the US economic which has been highlighted again by the end of last week by another better than expected release of Jan UN. Michigan consuming sentiment preliminary reading which has shown rising to 74 while the markets were waiting for just 71.5 after rising to 69.9 from 64.1 in November increasing the speculations of having no QE3 soon supporting the greenback which is taking advantage currently from another side by the falling of the risk apatite again on the increasing worries about the financial market after these downgrades.

God willing, the single currency can face now a new supporting at 1.2586 which has been the formed bottom on 24^th of August 2010 and this can be followed by 1.2151 which is the last low before 1.1876 whereas the pair has rebound forming its bottom on 7^th of June 2010 to 1.4939 whereas the pair has managed to ease back again on 4^th of May 2011.

While the pair can face a resistance now at 1.2877 which could cap its gains after rebounding from 1.266 on series of successful EU bonds auctions last week specially the Spanish ones driving their yields down which were supported the ECB's recent efforts for lowering the cost of borrowing and providing cheap money in the forms of 3 years loans for the financial markets which praised these actions positive effects specially over the short term as they give time for the financial market lowering the pressure on it and on the single currency in the same time which has become exposed to the risk of failure recently while the EU economy is in need for the low cost money which can spur the investments in the same time and God's will, breaking 1.2877 can be met with another resisting level 1.2954 before the psychological level at 1.30 which can open the way for more resisting levels to come at 1.3098, 1.3283 and 1.3432 before 1.4385 again which contained the pair recent gains forming another lower high to put technical pressure on it.

Kind Regards

FX Market Strategist

Walid Salah El Din

E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

http://www.fx-recommends.com

5/1/2012 - The Current Market Sentiment

mail@fx-recommends.com (Walid Salah El Din) — Thu, 05 Jan 2012 16:17:00 +0000

The pressure on the single currency continued today to get it down below 1.2858 whereas it could rebound last week versus the greenback which is supported by the current risk aversion sentiment which contained the markets worrying about the EU debt crisis outlook.

From another side, The greenback could found strength after the release of better than expected data showing declining of the US initial weekly jobless claim to 371k from 387k a week earlier and also rising of the added jobs to the US private sector to 325k in December while the markets were waiting for adding just 165k jobs adding 204k in November as these data could not add to the markets risk appetite which is still negatively impacted by the EU debt crisis as it has done for the USD as they reduce the pressure on the Fed to support the labor market by adding more liquidity by a QE3 soon.

So, the US equities markets are still down while EURUSD is trading right now below 1.28 and God willing, in the case of declining, the pair can meet supporting levels at 1.2586 which has been the formed bottom on 24^th of August 2010 and this can be followed by 1.2151 which is the last low before 1.1876 whereas the pair has rebound forming its bottom on 7^th of June 2010 to 1.4939 whereas the pair has managed to ease back again on 4^th of May 2011 after a bubble in the commodities market while the way up can meet resistance at 1.30 psychological level then 1.3075 whereas the pair failed to continue rising this week with an Irish announcement of failing to meet the budget deficit target following Spain which has announced the same while the worries about the demand for the EU long term bonds are undermining the market sentiment with the yield of the Italian 10 years is still around 7% despite the ECB's recent easing measures for lowering the cost of borrowing which could succeed top spur demand for the EU debt ailing countries short term bonds driving their yields down significantly for getting use of these short term injected cheap money by the ECB but it looks that the demand for these countries long term bonds are still in need of greater deal of certainty and stability of the financial situations of these countries while the credit rating downgrading risks are still looming around the EU countries.

Kind Regards

FX Market Strategist

Walid Salah El Din

E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

http://www.fx-recommends.com

15/12/2011 - The Current Market Sentiment

mail@fx-recommends.com (Walid Salah El Din) — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 09:33:00 +0000

The single currency could find the power to get over 1.30 versus the greenback because of the flash release of Dec EU manufacturing PMI index which has come at 46.9 while it has been expected to be 46.2 from 46.4 in November and also the flash reading of Dec EU Services PMI index which rose up to 48.3 from 47.5 in November while it was expected to decline further in the shrinking territory below 50 to 47.1 but the single currency has eased back below 1.30 as it is still finding difficulty to have a place above it after breaking it yesterday as the uncertainty is still remaining about the crisis outlook as the market participants have not found out what can make them sure about that the worst of the debt crisis is over while the signs of the recession are still emerging in the Euro area

The single currency has reached yesterday 1.2945 versus the greenback by a new recorded high yielding of the 5 years Italian bonds since the single currency inception for covering 3 billions euros despite the recent ECB's decision to cut the cost of borrowing by 0.25% to be again 1% as again as it was before April meeting as the worries about the EU debt crises are still containing the markets sentiment from a side and from another side, because of the current EU inflation rate which is still at 3 years high at 3% yearly lowering the attractiveness of these bonds which have not become a safe haven option to the investors anymore despite the rising recession signs in the euro zone.

The Single currency downward momentum has accelerated since last week ECB's interest rate cut by 0.25% with a dovish statement about the EU Economic growth focusing in the ECB's efforts for offering cheaper money with no reference to direct interventions injecting new funds in the EU bonds markets assuring that the ECB is forbidden from monetary financing on the current EU treaty to the governments referring to that the ECB should stick to the treaty spirit and the governments should do too.

While the greenback is finding strength on the recent improvement of the US economic performance which gives the Fed leeway to delay a new QE3 further that 's beside the demand for it with the current risk aversion sentiment which dampened the demand in the equities markets especially after the Fed's recent assessment which mentioned this improvement with no reference again to lower the possibility of a new QE3 soon giving support to greenback versus the gold too.

God willing, the single currency can face now supporting level versus the greenback at 1.2945 which could help it to rebound yesterday and in the case of breaking it, there can be another supporting level at by 1.2873 whereas the pair has recorded this year low on the 10^th of last January and breaking it can open the way for 1.2586 which has been the formed bottom on 24^th of August 2010 and this can be followed by 1.2151 which is the last low before 1.1876 whereas the pair has rebound forming its bottom on 7^th of June 2010 to 1.4939 whereas the pair has managed to ease back again on 4^th of May 2011 after a bubble in the commodities market.

While its way up can be met by resisting levels now at 1.3098, 1.3236, 1.3283, 1.3432 before 1.4385 again which capped the pair gains last week putting technical pressure too on this pair and breaking it can lead to another resistance at 1.3546 which has been reached after the Fed's coordinated action to lower the USD cost of borrowing with other five Central banks and the ECB was one of them and breaking 1.3546 can be followed directly by 1.3567 which stands before 1.3613 and breaking it can open the door again to 1.3808 then 1.387 which pressed down the pair capping its rising many times last month.

Kind Regards

FX Market Strategist

Walid Salah El Din

E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

http://www.fx-recommends.com

9/12/2011 - The Current Market Sentiment

mail@fx-recommends.com (Walid Salah El Din) — Fri, 09 Dec 2011 05:59:00 +0000

The Single currency is still under pressure versus the greenback after the ECB's interest rate decision of cutting the interest rate by 0.25% to be at its previous all times low at 1% again as it was before April meeting.

The ECB kept its role as funds provider again with no announcement about new buying bonds plans directly which have been aimed by the markets which have seen offering new 3 years loans or lowering the EU reserve banking rate of deposits at its central banks by 50% to be 1% of its assets instead of 2% from the beginning of next year or even cutting the interest rate meanwhile are not enough and can not replace buying bonds directly by the ECB to restore confidence in the EU bonds markets to fall the risk appetite strongly during the ECB's president press conference which focused on the ECB's offering of cheaper money with no reference to direct interventions injecting funds in the EU bonds markets adding that the ECB is forbidden from monetary financing on the current treaty to the governments referring to that the ECB should stick to the treaty spirit and the governments should do too.

Draghi has shown his surprising too by the understanding of his words of "other elements" to be done by the ECB in the face of the crisis, in the case of reaching stronger financial unity amongst the EU countries as a hint of buying more bonds on reaching this has been really done last week when he was addressing in front of the EU parliament while the speculation have increased toward these direction from the germane and French side giving the markets high level of cheeriness by the EU summit.

And now, it's the word of the political and financial authorities after the monetary authority has turned the word to it to reach a new accepted modification of the current agreements between the EU suffering from high levels of debt like Greece and the countries which are funding this debt like Germany.

And in the case of germane bowing to their demands, there can be a bigger financial role of the ECB and the IMF which has announced earlier this week that it's in need for more resources to do as long as Germany is still refusing the idea of united bonds issuance.

But in the case of germane refusal there can be imposed sanctions in a new financial treaty on the EU countries which allows its debt to get over 60% of its GDP or its budget deficit to be more than 3% of it.

But between this and that there can be a reached deal for lowering the bonds yields at least over the short term as a joint demand from the countries in debt and the offering countries which have been negatively impacted recently by the crisis and well- exposed to credit rate lowering as S&P credit rating agency has warned earlier by the EU summit this week.

It is also expected from the summit to identify a greater active role of the IMF intervention even it is to be a last defending line behind the FESF as it has been obvious in the EU Fin ministers' meetings last week which could not find recourses to grantee the 1 trillion which has been announced as a new size of it in the recent summit on 27^th of October. So, it's important issue to be discussed too in the summit specially as the lack of details about its funding resource has dampen the market sentiment after that previous summit.

The Single currency has fallen during Draghi's press conference well below its previous supporting level at 1.3332 after failing to continue rising above 1.3458 on the ECB assurance that there is no monetary financing in the EU treaty and God willing, in the case of falling further, there can be consecutive supporting levels at 1.3258, 1.3211 whereas the pair has formed its bottom after falling from 1.4245 which has been reached after the EU summit agreement in Brussels on 27^th of last October and breaking it can open the door again for 1.3144 which could contain on 4^th of last October the pair falling from 1.4939 and breaking it can open the way for 1.3 psychological level which can be followed by 1.2873 whereas the pair has recorded this year low on the 10^th of last January.

While its way up can be met by resisting level now at 1.3458 which capped the pair gains yesterday and this can be followed with another resistance at 1.3546 which has been reached after the Fed's coordinated action to lower the USD cost of borrowing with other five Central banks and the ECB was one of them and breaking 1.3546 can be followed directly by 1.3567 which stands before 1.3613 and breaking it can open the door again to 1.3808 then 1.387 which pressed down the pair capping its rising many times last moth putting technical pressure on the pair and breaking it can lead to test higher resisting levels at 1.3959 before the psychological level at 1.4

Kind Regards

FX Market Strategist

Walid Salah El Din

E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

http://www.fx-recommends.com

1/12/2011 - The Current Market Sentiment

mail@fx-recommends.com (Walid Salah El Din) — Thu, 01 Dec 2011 02:50:00 +0000

The greenback is still under pressure after the central banks action to lower the cost of borrowing US dollars for underpinning the liquidity in the banking systems especially in the EU after the demand for the US Dollar has increased recently hiking the cost of borrowing it amid rising of the governmental bonds yields containing the markets sentiment.

From another side, the greenback came under pressure by the rising of the risk appetite which has been fueled by continued improving of US economic data as Nov ADP Employment rose strongly up to 203k while the market was waiting for just 130k from 110k in October have been revised up too to 116k suggesting better data to come tomorrow with the release of US labor report of November and concerning the housing sector we have seen also a very strong monthly rising of the pending home sales in October by 10.4% while the consensus was referring to another declining by 1.3% following the drop of September by 4.6% showing improving of the demand in the housing market too as the pending home sales is an expressive leading indicator of this sector and also the manufacturing sector in Chicago has shown better than expansion in November as Chicago Manufacturing PMI rose up to 62.6 while the market was forecasting small rising to 58.6 from 58.4 in October and even the US Beige Book release which always comes 2 weeks before the Fed's meeting has come better than October because of the improving of the consuming spending, manufacturing sector performance and the tourism activity and these data came to ensure the improving of the US economic performance recently following the very strong rising figure of Nov US consumers confidence figure to 56 while it was expected to improve to just 44 after a massive falling in October to 39.8 and these data were enough to keep the gains of the US stocks which started yesterday session in the positive territory following the PBOC'S decision of cutting the banking RRR by 0.5% for the first time in 3 years showing greater interest in the growth downside risks facing Chine after Nov HSBS PMI manufacturing index of China has come down to 48 from 51 in October while the inflation pressure has shown easing sings by falling below 6% in October to 5.6%.

While the single currency looked the greater winner of the Fed's action with another major 5 central banks as it lower the pressure on the EU banking system resorting confidence in it showing real coordinating efforts to help it getting over the crisis after this week EU US meeting Between the EU commissioner Jose Barroso and Obama who has said that US is standing ready to take its part ensuring that the greater risk facing the US economy is this crisis in EU.

This action also came in time the markets which did not see certainty in getting over the crisis as the failing of the EU Fin Ministers in Brussels to identify a target of the EFSF looking for further support from the IMF's side.

The Single currency could get over 1.344 which stopped it in the face of the single currency before this week to reach 1.3532 during the US session and by god's will, it can face now in the case of rising up further other resisting levels at 1.3557, 1.3613, 1.3808, 1.387 which pressed down the pair capping its rising many times last moth and breaking it can lead to test higher resisting levels at 1.3959 before the psychological level at 1.4 which breaking it can open the way for 1.4199 then 1.4245 again before 1.4279 which has been reached by the SNB's action to limit the EURCHF drawing down over 1.2 while the way down of this pair can be faced by supporting levels at 1.3271 .1.3211.1.3144 which contained the pair falling from recently and whereas it has begun its recent rebound on 4^th of last month reaching 1.4245 after the EU summit agreement in Brussels on 27^th of last month and breaking it can open the way to 1.3 psychological level and breaking it can open the way for 1.2873 which has been the recorded low of this year on the 10^th of last January.

Kind Regards

FX Market Strategist

Walid Salah El Din

E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

http://www.fx-recommends.com

11/11/2011 - The Current Market Sentiment

mail@fx-recommends.com (Walid Salah El Din) — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 00:07:00 +0000

The Single currency is still trying to hold its gains above 1.36 versus the greenback after it could find support by a well-covered Italian 10 years bonds issuance earlier yesterday at yield average lower than Wednesday new recorded highs since the beginning of adopting the Euro which reached 7.37% while the Italian senates are rushing to vote today on passing new austerities measures which can be followed by Berlusconi's resignation.

From the another side, The worries about the Greek political have eased back too as the position of the new united Greek government PM has gone to Lucas Papademos who was the previous ECB vice president. Papademos can really find acceptance from the European side but it is hard to have more than what Papandreou had from the Greek street to add more austerity measures.

The single currency could gain also yesterday as the ECB has begun this week its second plan of buying covered bond worth 40b euros and this announcement has come with remarks from Knot Kuasa who is the ECB's member heading the Dutch central bank saying that the ECB is doing all what it can and it is not expected to do more than what is has already done for solving the debt problem indicating that the intervention impact is usually temporary and solving the problem is up to the governments.

While the greenback was coming under pressure because of the improving of the investors' risk appetite as the US weekly initial jobless claim has eased in the week ending on 4^th Nov to 390k and the market was waiting for 402k showing continued gradual improving of the US labor market after last week data has shown increasing of Oct US ADP to 110k while the markets were waiting for 100k revising up September reading to 116k from 91k and also October US Labor report which has shown decreasing of the US unemployment rate to 9% while the market was expected 9.1% as the same as September producing 80k jobs out of the US farming sector while the market was waiting for 100k with strong up revision of September reading to 158k from 103k.

But this does not object that the single currency is still subjected to further falls as the markets worries about the debt crisis negative impact on the EU countries creditability are still looming driving up the bonds yields of these countries beside the growth downside risks which are facing the Euro area forcing the ECB to adopt easing steps for underpinning liquidity and stimulating the struggling EU economy which can fall in a mild recession at the end of this year as the new ECB president Mario Draghi has warned last week after the ECB decision of cutting the interest rate by 0.25% to be 1.25% despite the inflation annual rate holding at 3% yearly initially in October as the same in September and these down side risks have been materialized obvious recently to the markets participants with the recent release of Oct EU PMI manufacturing index which has fallen to 47.1 from 48.5 in September and also Oct EU PMI services index which has fallen to 46.4 from 48.8 in September shown continuation putting pressure on the single currency.

God willing, EURUSD can face now resistance at 1.387 which hold more than one time in the face of its ascending and breaking it can lead to test higher resisting levels at 1.3959 before the psychological level at 1.4 which breaking it can open the way for 1.4199 then 1.4245 again before 1.4279 which has been reached by the SNB's action to limit the EURCHF drawing down over 1.2 while the way down can be met by supporting level at 1.3483 whereas the pair could rebound yesterday and breaking it can be followed by another supporting level at 1.3359, 1.3232 then 1.3144 whereas it has begun its recent rebound on 4^th of last month reaching 1.4245 after the EU summit agreement in Brussels on 27^th of last month.

Kind Regards

FX Market Strategist

Walid Salah El Din

E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

http://www.fx-recommends.com

4/11/2011 - The Current Market Sentiment

mail@fx-recommends.com (Walid Salah El Din) — Fri, 04 Nov 2011 15:31:00 +0000

The single currency has retreated back again after failure to break above 1.387 again versus the greenback which is getting support currently from the disagreement around the way of IMF financing of the EU debt amid the G20 meetings in France.

The single currency has been under pressure yesterday by the unexpected decision of the ECB to cut the interest by 0.25% and Draghi's warning of falling in a mild recession at the end of this year but the Greek PM calling off the referendum on the second bailing out plan could help the single currency to get over 1.38 again and it is now trading around 1.373 after the US Labor report release of October which has shown producing 80k jobs out of the farming sector while the market was waiting for 100k with up revision of September reading to 158k from 103k and also with easing of the US unemployment rate to 9% from 9.1% in September and these data came after Oct US ADP had come earlier this week adding 110k while the markets were waiting for 100k revising up September reading to 116k from 91k and even the US Initial jobless claim for the week ending on 29 Oct has come down to 397k from 406 a weak earlier while the market was waiting for 402kwe have seen showing really gradual improving of the US Labor market as the Fed's referred earlier this week again.

By God's will, The markets are waiting now anxiously for the results of confidence voting in the Greek Government and also the joint statement which will be send out after the end of G20 2 days meeting while the single currency way down versus the greenback can meet supporting level at 1.3655 which could hold yesterday after the ECB's interest rate cutting decision and in the case of falling it can meet anther supporting level at 1.3607 whereas it could rebound earlier this week and breaking it can lead to lower supporting levels at 1.3564, 1.3359, 1.3232 then 1.3144 whereas it has begun its recent rebound on 4^th of last month reaching 1.4245 last week after the EU summit agreement in Brussels and in the case of ascending back, it can face now resistance again at 1.387 and breaking it can lead to test higher resisting levels at 1.3959 before the psychological level at 1.4 which breaking it can open the way for 1.4199 then 1.4245 again before 1.4279 which has been reached by the SNB's action to limit the EURCHF drawing down over 1.2

Kind Regards

FX Market Strategist

Walid Salah El Din

E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

http://www.fx-recommends.com

28/10/2011 - The Current Market Sentiment

mail@fx-recommends.com (Walid Salah El Din) — Fri, 28 Oct 2011 12:28:00 +0000

The Japanese yen has found strength in the Asian session to break below 75.70 making a new low at 75.65 because of the falling of Sep unemployment rate to 4.1% while the market was waiting for 4.5% from 5.3% in August and also Sep industrial productions release which has shown declining by 0.4% while the market was waiting for stronger falling by 2.3% after rising in August by 0.4%. keeping greenback trading versus the Japanese yen below 76 despite the intervention threats from BOJ which kept the interest rate unchanged at 0.1% this week predicting this FY GDP to be by 0.3% from 0.4% in last July and next year to be 2.2% from 2.9% previously in last July and concerning 2013, it has predicted its GDP to be 1.5% warning of the risks facing the US economy and the global economy and its impact on the Japanese economy amid the EU debt crisis and Japanese yen strength which did not cap Japanese merchandise total trade balance from making ¥300.4b surplus while the market was waiting for just 198b from 775.3b deficit in August

BOJ has shown also uncertainty about the commodities prices outlook but it expected core CPI to be at 0.0% this FY from 0.7% in July and for next year it has predicted it to be at 0.1% from its previous estimation in last July too at 0.7%.and this was obvious in today data which have shown again prices down side risks and persisting of deflation as Sep Japanese National CPI came at 0.0% y/y while the market was waiting for 0.1% from 0.2% in August and also the core CPI of September came at -0.4% as expected from -0.5% in August with no monthly change from 0.1% in August.

God willing, USDJPY can face now resisting levels at 76.47, 77.07, 77.47, 77.84, 79.05, 80.22, 81.46 then 82.22 while the way down can face by the Japanese intervention in the case of passing the new recorded level today in the Asian session at 75.65 despite the Japanese Fin min Azumi's warning which came last Tuesday that the current Japanese yen exchange rate does not reflect fundamentals as it reflects the traders' speculations.

Kind Regards

FX Market Strategist

Walid Salah El Din

E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

http://www.fx-recommends.com

14/10/2011 - The Current Market Sentiment

mail@fx-recommends.com (Walid Salah El Din) — Fri, 14 Oct 2011 15:14:00 +0000

The Single currency could get over its previous resistance at 1.3832 versus the greenback after Berlusconi could have the confidence in the Italian parliament and it is now heading to its previous resistance at 1.3935 which has been reached following the ECB's decision to offer US dollars loans for 3 months to the European banks earlier last month and if it could get over it, it is expected to face resistance at 1.4 psychological level before another resistance at 1.4147 by 1.4278 which has been reached by the SNB's action to limit the EURCHF drawing down over 1.2

While its way for getting back down versus the greenback can be met by God's will with supporting level at 1.3684 whereas it could rebound yesterday and breaking it can be followed by other supporting levels at 1.3562 , 1.3359, 1.3232, 1.3144 whereas the pair has started to rebound on the 4^th of this month and get below it can face another supporting level at 1.3088 before the psychological level at 1.3 and breaking it can open the way for 1.2873 which has been the recorded low of this year on the 10^th of last January.

The single currency could find this week strength, after Merkel and Sarkozy meeting last Sunday which has shown strong appreciation of the need for recapitalizing the European banking sector quickly for protecting it from deterioration in the case of further exacerbation of the debt crisis and this step can make the European banking sector the nearer to Basel 3 agreement which is expected to be implemented in 2019, as the European banks are widely expected to be asked for rising the capital by about 9% in few months and this adding can be by its earnings, the governmental sector or the private sector before asking for EFSF

From another side, the single currency could find support by the

Greece

creditors' troika statement which has shown a greater possibility of passing the waited 8 billions slice to

Greece

of its 110 bailing out plan by the EU Fin Ministers.

Kind Regards

FX Market Strategist

Walid Salah El Din

E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

http://www.fx-recommends.com

7/10/2011 - The Current Market Sentiment

mail@fx-recommends.com (Walid Salah El Din) — Fri, 07 Oct 2011 12:02:00 +0000

Improving the risk appetite in the recent few days could help the Canadian dollar to add more gains versus the greenback with rising back of the oil prices after it had been under pressure on increasing worries about the US growth outlook which can effect negatively on the Canadian exports of commodities and oil to US.

From another side, The Canadian dollar has been well-supported too by the strong rising of IVEY PMI to 63.4 in September which followed another strong rising in August to 57.6 after a sudden falling In July to 45.1

The Canadian dollar has been under pressure versus the greenback with the persisting of the European debt crisis which has dampen the market sentiment increasing the demand for the greenback as a safe haven with continued worries about the European banks exposure to the Greek debt leading USDCAD to reach 1.0655 but with rising hopes for recapitalizing the European banking sector by EU and also growing optimism about the US labor market, it has eased back without breaking its previous resistance at 1.0669 but it has found difficulty to get below 1.0364 again which has become supporting level after it has been a resistance before breaking it 29^th of September but with the release of September Canadian labor report, it could get below it as the report has shown rising of the Canadian net change employment by 60.9 jobs while the markets were waiting for rising by just 19.5 after falling by 5.5k in August and also decreasing of the Canadian unemployment rate to 7.1% in September while the markets were waiting for 7.3% as the same as August.

God willing, USDCAD can face now in the case of further declining a new supporting level at 1.0142 then the parity psychological level and the breaking of it too can open the way for further falling to 0.9788 again while rising back again can be met with resistance at 1.0669 again then 1.0855 and the breaking of it can lead to 1.1 psychological level and the breaking of it too can lead to another higher resistance at 1.1123

God willing, the market is waiting now for the release of US labor report of September which is expected to show rising of the US non-farm payrolls by 73K after no change in August and the report is expected to show also that the Unemployment rate is still steady at 9.1% as it was in August and also the average hourly earnings rinsing by 1.9% y/y as august with steadiness of the average weekly hours at 34.2

And this report comes after triggered optimism in the markets by the release of Sep US ADP employment index which has come with new 91k while the market was waiting for just 70k from 89k in August and also after yesterday release of US Initial jobless claim which came at 401k while it was forecasted to rise to 411k from 395k a week earlier.

Kind Regards

FX Market Strategist

Walid Salah El Din

E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

http://www.fx-recommends.com

30/9/2010 - The Current Market Sentiment

mail@fx-recommends.com (Walid Salah El Din) — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 11:53:00 +0000

The rising of Sep EU CPI preliminary reading to 3% while the market was waiting for 2.5% like August can tackle the ECB form taking a direction to lower the interest rate for stimulating growth in EU and giving easier conditions for borrowing euros to the ailing countries of debt.

The ECB always gives attention to this figure and in its recent 2 meeting, it has smoothed its language concerning the inflation upside risks which looked to it well-anchored over the medium term despite being above its 2% yearly target with no signals to the markets of taking a close hiking action since it has hiked the interest rate by 0.25% on 13^th of last July which opened the way to the market speculations of having an interest rate cut this year for stimulating growth in EU specially after the release of the flash reading of September EU Manufacturing PMI index which has gone lower in the contracting territory to 48.4 while it was expected to be 48.6 from 49 in August and also EU Services PMI flash reading index of September which came down to 49 while it was expected to be above 50 at 51.11 from 51.5 in August amid worries about the EU banking system creditability.

But after this jump of inflation in EU which has not been seen since October 2008, the market wants to know whether or not the ECB will take the same direction of inflation tolerance of the Fed and BOE despite reaching yearly in August 3.8% in US and 4.5% in

The Markets are waiting cautiously now for what can be resulted from Greece and the creditors' troika negotiations during the weekend after the Greek government could pass new properties taxes this week as a new deal can open the way for saving Greece again from default next month by giving it the next awaited 8 billions euros part of its bailing out plan.

The markets are waiting now from US for the release of July US personal consumption expenditures index to be up monthly by 0.2% from 0.4% in June and July core PCE price index to be up monthly by 0.2% as the same as June and also the release of August personal income to be up monthly by 0.1% from 0.3% in July and also US personal spending of August to be 0.2% from the rising by 0.8% in July which spurred an optimism wave after falling in June to -0.1%.

The markets will be waiting also today for the release of Sep Chicago PMI which is expected to get down to 56 from 56.5 in August and also for the release of Michigan university consuming sentiment survey which is expected to be 57.9 in September from 57.7 in the preliminary reading and 55.7 in August.

God willing, after EURUSD had broken its recent supporting level at 1.3519, it can face new supporting levels in its way down at 1.348, 1.3414 then 1.3362 whereas it could rebound in the beginning of this week and in the case of breaking it, it can face another supporting level at 1.3243 and breaking it can lead to 1.3088 before the psychological level at 1.3 and 1.2873 which has been recorded low of this year on the 10^th of last January while its way for getting up can be met by resisting levels at 1.3693, 1.3795 which could not be broken this week too in a dovish price action sign and in the case of breaking it, the pair can meet another resistance at 1.3843 before 1.3935 which has been reached following the ECB's decision to offer US dollars loans for 3 months to the European banks.

Kind Regards

FX Market Strategist

Walid Salah El Din

E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

http://www.fx-recommends.com

23/9/2011- The Current Market Sentiment

mail@fx-recommends.com (Walid Salah El Din) — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 11:41:00 +0000

The single currency could rebound versus the greenback following news about recapitalizing 16 mid-sized banks in the debt ailing European countries of which could pass hardly the recent EU banking stress tests in an action targeting the EU struggling backing system after last week ECB'S decision of offering 3 months loans for the European banks in an coordinated action with the Fed, SNB, BOE and BOJ for underpinning the US dollar liquidity into the European banking system for longer time as this has been allowed for just one week by the ECB which can be read as an action of restoring confidence and giving durability of the funds liquidity in this system but in the same time, it can be read easily as a precaution action for saving these banks from what can be worst with having default in Greece as these loans can not be read as a growth stimulating action in this time while cutting interest rate can be the most required suitable action and it can be unavoidable with persisting of the current struggling economic conditions which drove down EU Manufacturing PMI index and services PMI index well below 50 as what we have seen yesterday in the flash reading release of September EU Manufacturing PMI index which has gone lower in the contracting territory to 48.4 while it was expected to be 48.6 from 49 in August and also EU Services PMI flash reading index of September which came down to 49 while it was expected to be above 50 at 51.11 from 51.5 in August.

From another side the single currency could gain with growing ambitious hopes of having new decisions can restore the confidence in the markets from the next G20 meeting during the weekend with the current hopes of having new agreement between Greece and the creditors troika next week after stopping last Tuesday with no ability to come out with a new deal can save Greece from default next month by giving it the next waited 8 billions euros part of its bailing out plan which has been prepared by EU, IMF and ECB.

These new hopes have come to light some of the weights on the single currency which has started this week under pressure following the European Economic and Financial Affairs Council meeting which has come with no results to open this week at 1.3689 after closing last week at 1.3795 and after it could fill this gap by the announcement of Fed's meeting results, it came back under pressure again as the triggered dovish sentiment by the Fed's avoiding again injecting new funding in a form of a new QE3 or hinting to it satisfied with turning $400 billions of its holding of less than 3 years treasuries notes to longer term treasuries driving up the average maturity of its 1.6 trillions of treasuries to 100 months driving the 10 years treasuries notes yields down to new historical low yesterday at 1.72%

while the equities markets participants have not seen the required simulating measures in the Fed's plan which looked as a Fed's restructure plan targeting the bonds market more than the stocks which have come under pressure with a real dovish US assessment by the Fed showing growing downside risks facing the US economy from the financial markets with the current weak labor US market and the pressure on the housing market which lead it to reinvest its holding of $885 Billion in the mortgages back securities again with no cut.

That's beside the hits which have dragged the equities markets down by the worries EU countries credit rating which have increased by S&P downgrading of Italy's short term and long term debt from A+/A-1+ to A/A-1 and also the doubts about the US banking system creditability which have grown by Moody's downgrading of BoA, Citi Group and Wells Fegro last Wednesday which has been backed to the current lower ability of the US Government to support them in the case of having harder financial situation amid the debt crisis in the Euro area and the current slower US growth pace expectations which dampened the commodities and energy prices and the stocks which are depending of them

That's beside the political situation in US which forms another risk as what has been seen of hardness in reaching a political agreement for hiking the US debt ceiling for avoiding bankruptcy last month which shows that having an agreement for financing such big banks or bailing out one of them can face monetary and financial difficulties.

God willing, after EURUSD had broken this week its recent supporting levels at 1.3702, 1.3635, 1.3554, 1.3494 and 1.3424, it can face again supporting level at 1.3384 whereas it could rebound this week and in the case of breaking it, it can face another supporting level at 1.3243 and breaking it can lead to 1.3088 before the psychological level at 1.3 and 1.2873 which has been recorded low of this year on the 10^th of last January while the way of ascending can face resisting levels at 1.36, 1.3693, 1.3795 which could not be broken this week too in a dovish price action sign and in the case of breaking it, the pair can meet another resistance at 1.3843 before 1.3935 which has been reached following the ECB's decision to offer US dollars loans for 3 months to the European banks.

Kind Regards

FX Market Strategist

Walid Salah El Din

E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

http://www.fx-recommends.com

16/9/2011 - The Current Market Sentiment

mail@fx-recommends.com (Walid Salah El Din) — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 14:38:00 +0000

While the markets were waiting for the European Economic and Financial Affairs Council meeting results, The Single currency has managed to ease back again versus the greenback under the pressure of having €2.5B EU Trade Balance deficit in July while the markets were waiting for €1.7B surplus from €1.5B deficit in June after it had failed to get over its previous resistance at 1.3935 falling below 1.377 whereas it has started its rising following the news of offering 3 months loans by the ECB for the European banks in an coordinated action with the Fed, SNB, BOE and BOJ for underpinning the US dollar liquidity into the European banking system for longer time as this has been allowed for just one week by the ECB.

God willing, further EURUSD declining can meet over the short term supporting levels at 1.3702, 1.3635, 1.3554 then 1.3494 again whereas it has started to correct its loses reaching the current levels and the breaking of it can open the door for further falling to 1.2873 which has been recorded low of this year on the 10^th of last January while the way of ascending can face resistance again at 1.3935 then the psychological level at 1.4 and the breaking of it can lead to a higher resistance at 1.4278 which has been reached by the SNB's action to limit the EURCHF drawing down over 1.2 last week but it could not hold its gains falling back again on persisting worries about the European economy after the ECB had downgraded its forecasts of the EU growth in 2011 and 2012 without hinting about new steps to stimulate the economy, while the worries about Greece were ascending by suspending the talking between the lending troika and Greece from a side and from another side by Greece Fin Min announcement about the Greek GDP shrinking this year by more than 5% while it was expected to be by just 3.8% on the back of the negative impact of the taken austerities measures by the Greek government.

Kind Regards

FX Market Strategist

Walid Salah El Din

E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

http://www.fx-recommends.com

9/9/2011 - The Current Market Sentiment

mail@fx-recommends.com (Walid Salah El Din) — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 15:14:00 +0000

The Single currency came under strong pressure on increasing worries about the Euro area growth outlook after the ECB has downgraded its forecasts of the growth in 2011 and 2012 without hinting about new steps to stimulate the economy. While the worries about the debt crisis worries are still persisting weighing negatively on the current market sentiment.

The single currency has fallen below 1.395 supporting level yesterday following Trichet's comments about the downside risks facing the European economy currently which have elevated since the ECB meeting of August and today with these worries persisting before the G7 meeting this weekend, the single currency downward momentum has increased and with the falling of I.3838 supporting level versus the greenback, the selling pressure has accelerated causing falling of another strong supporting level at 1.3744 versus the greenback which is underpinned by the current risk aversion which is weighing down on the equities markets in EU and US driving up the bonds prices driving the US 10 years treasury bonds yields down to 1.96 below its previous historical level at 1.97 which has been recorded in the beginning of this week after the US markets have opened last Tuesday negatively impacted by the European stocks markets loses because of the rising worries about the economic growth outlook in the euro zone too amid requests for implementing austerities measures

by cutting the governmental spending and hiking the taxes in the European debt ailing economies which can be another hard obstacle in the face of the growth in this area amid growing concerns about the global economic outlook driving the business confidence down with the current great deal of uncertainty about the EU debt crisis.

From another side, The Swiss frank has come under pressure as the SNB's action to put a floor against EURCHF depreciation below 1.2 has helped USDCHF to go up above 0.88 capping the Swiss Franc from getting more benefits as a safe haven from this current dovish sentiment and losing of confidence for taking risks by the investors.

While the greenback is still finding strength from another side by no clear reference about QE3 by the Fed despite the recent dovish release of Beige Book which has shown clear weakness of the US economic performance but there was no hinting again from Bernanke's speech yesterday putting more pressure on the investors' risk appetite.

God willing, further EURUSD declining can be met with another supporting level at 1.3523 and in the case of breaking it, there can be a new supporting level to be faced at 1.3424 and the breaking of it can open the door for further falling to 1.2873 which has been recorded on the 10^th of last January while the way of ascending can face difficulties at 1.3838 which has become a resistance then 1.3933 whereas the pair has formed its bottom after failing to get over 1.40 earlier today.

Kind Regards

FX Market Strategist

Walid Salah El Din

E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

http://www.fx-recommends.com

1/9/2011 - The Current Market Sentiment

mail@fx-recommends.com (Walid Salah El Din) — Thu, 01 Sep 2011 13:01:00 +0000

The falling of EU Manufacturing PMI of August below 50 in the contracting territory to 49 while the markets were waiting for 49.5 from 50.4 in July raised the markets worries about the growth outlook in the Euro zone showing its needs for stimulation while it's required currently from most of the Euro zone countries to implement governmental austerities plans cutting its spending and raising its taxes for improving their financial situation amid continued investors' concerns about the debt crisis in the Euro zone.

These weak manufacturing data have come in line with the falling of Aug Germane IFO last week to 108.7 while the markets were waiting for from decreasing to 111.3 from 112.9 in June following the big drop of Aug EU ZEW to -40 while the consensus was referring to improving to -7.6 from -7 in July and also this week earlier release of EU consuming confidence index falling to -17 in August while it has been forecasted to -12 from -11.6 in July showing increased downside risks facing the European economic growth.

The Single currency has fallen versus the greenback below 1.4327 supporting after inability to get over 1.4383 again and it is now finding support at 1.4262 and in the case of breaking it, this cane open the way by God's will for further falling to another supporting levels at 1.4211, 1.4149, 1.4102 then 1.4054 again before the psychological level at 1.40 while moving up can meet resistances at again at 1.4383, 1.4464, 1.4548 which was the high of this week and the breaking of it can be followed by facing 1.4576 whereas the pair has formed its lower high below 1.4695 which came below 1.4939 which was the formed top in December 2009.

While the markets are waiting now to know more about the manufacturing sector in US waiting for the release of Aug Manufacturing ISM index which is expected to get down below 50 too at 48.5 from 50.9 in July before the focusing turning back again to the US labor markets ahead of the waited release of US labor report of August tomorrow by God's will, which is expected to show new 90k added jobs to the non-farm payrolls from 117k in July with standing of the unemployment rate at 9.1% as it was in July.

Kind Regards

FX Market Strategist

Walid Salah El Din

E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

http://www.fx-recommends.com

16/8/2011 - The Current Market Sentiment

mail@fx-recommends.com (Walid Salah El Din) — Tue, 16 Aug 2011 06:40:00 +0000

The Swiss frank has started the week under pressure, as the equities markets gains last Thursday and last Friday have continued in the beginning of this week too supported by the stronger than expected release of Q2 GDP preliminary reading of Japan which has shown shrinking by 1.3% y/y while the markets were waiting for the double of this rate by 2.6% and this optimism has continued into the US session helping the US stocks indexes eliminating all its loses after 5^th of August following the US long term debt downgrading by S&P to AA+ from AAA.

In the same time, the investors have managed to take the SNB's worries about the Swiss Frank appreciation seriously with the SNB threatening the markets by taking further easing steps to stave off this appreciation after cutting the interest rate by 0.25% on 3^rd of August to be zero despite the rising of Swiss SVEM PMI to 53.5 of July from 53.4 in June while the markets were waiting for easing to 53 while its counterparts indicators in US and EU are facing down pressure.

But from another side, it looks that the appreciation of the Swiss Frank could has its toll on the inflation which eased to 0.5% y/y in July from 0.6% in June falling monthly by 0.8% while the markets were waiting for easing by just 0.5% from decreasing by 0.2% in June which can really open the door for the SNB to take such easing actions with no threat from inflation upside risks currently injecting more liquidities into the markets.

USDCHF has risen from 0.7063 which has been the new recorded historical low last Tuesday to close last week at 0.7772 opening this week on a gap starting from 0.7829 breaking above 0.7950 reaching 0.7995 before easing again to be traded between 0.78 and 0.785 waiting for new clues from the SNB and in the case of rising of the worries about the investors risk positions, the pair cane meet supporting levels now at 0.78 and 0.7546 then 0.7177 before 0.7063 again.

Kind Regards

FX Market Strategist

Walid Salah El Din

E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

http://www.fx-recommends.com

10/8/2011 - The Current Market Sentiment

mail@fx-recommends.com (Walid Salah El Din) — Wed, 10 Aug 2011 04:35:00 +0000

The greenback bounced up directly after the release of the Fed's assessment which did not include QE3 plan or hinting to it but it came back under pressure on the Fed's decision of keeping the interest rate unchanged between 0% to .25% until the mid 2013 which was not discounted in the markets and weighed down on the US treasuries yields increasing the demand again for the US stocks as this decision can put pressure on the greenback value supporting the assets prices for a longer period of time than what has been discounting by the markets from the language of keeping the interest rate at this low level for extended period of time on the economic conditions which was required again by Fisher, Kocherlakota and Plosser.

The Fed maintained its inflation expectations over the long term expecting the prices to get down in the near future which is also priced in the market by the economic easing pressure negative impact on the inflation upside risks.

The US equities could continue rising after dipping down following the Fed's assessment release as the investors have seen in this decision an easing action has not been expected putting the greenback under pressure by this action which supported the risk appetite as it looked to the markets, what is in the Fed's hand currently with the interest rate has been already near this level on the back of the financial crisis and with new expected ties to be proposed on the Governmental spending which can cap any QE3 plans from stimulating the economy by buying more treasuries providing liquidity to the US bonds market, while the markets are focusing on the US debt which caused downgrading of the US long term debt by S&P to AA+ from AAA causing a strong wave of selling pressure in the equities markets and negative sentiment about the US creditability which can make it difficult to stimulate the economy financially by the government which is asked to do austerities measures for reducing its debt and so that what could be done by the monetary policy decision makers who surprised the market by the first time of determining a certain interest rate for a certain period of time by the Fed.

After S&P 500 index has fallen to 1100 following the statement from 1137, it could continue creeping up without a word about QE3 breaking above 1152 which stopped it during the day to close it at 1172 and God willing, in the case of gaining more momentum, it can meet resistance at 1192, 1222, 1267 then 1289 by 1300 psychological level again, while the way down can meet supporting levels now at 1100, 1080, 1036 then 1003.

Kind Regards

FX Market Strategist

Walid Salah El Din

E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

http://www.fx-recommends.com

9/8/2011 - The Current Market Sentiment

mail@fx-recommends.com (Walid Salah El Din) — Tue, 09 Aug 2011 19:29:00 +0000

The gold could continued making new highs reaching today $1779 per ounce on increasing market expectation of having a new stimulation action by the Fed which came with no new action or hinting of a new action in a form of QE3 which forced the gold to retreat from $1760 per ounce to $1740 following the Fed's statement which has come with just Fed's expectations of having the interest rate between 0% and 0.25% till the middle of 2013 instead of the language of keeping the interest rate at this low levels for extended period of time and also it has come with lower appreciation of the inflation upside risks in the coming period maintaining Fed's long term expectation of inflation unchanged and this is concluded by the growth downside risks impact on the prices.

So, the gold could creep up again of decreasing of the risk appetite again trading currently above 1760 again and also the US indexes came down again after it could rebound in cheeriness of having new stimulating action and S&P 500 came down to 1115 following the statement from 1137 before it after it could rebound earlier from 1080 to 1152 and further easing from here can be met by supporting level at 1080 , 1036 then 1003 again while in the case of rebounding continuation from here it can meet by God's will, resistance at 1152, 1192, 1222, 1267 then 1289 by 1300 psychological level again.

Kind Regards

FX Market Strategist

Walid Salah El Din

E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

http://www.fx-recommends.com

8/8/2011 - The Current Market Sentiment

mail@fx-recommends.com (Walid Salah El Din) — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 15:41:00 +0000

The Canadian dollar is still under pressure following the strong falling of the Canadian Ivey PMI of July to 45.1 in the contracting territory below 50 from 68.2 in June which came after July Canadian non-farm payrolls figures which have shown adding just 7.1k jobs while the markets were waiting for 20k from 28.4k in June by the end of last week helping the US Dollar to get over 0.991 resisting level versus the Canadian dollar on the current risk aversion sentiment which has increased by S&P action of lowering the US long term debt rating to AA+ from AAA after the close of the US markets last week.

In the same time, the worries about the US growth outlook are still weighing negatively on the markets by the next Fed's meeting decision which even if it is to come with new QE3 or hint of doing it buying more treasuries notes, it can face difficulties in stimulating the economy as the current required austerity measures for tightening the governmental deficit by cutting its spending which can tackle the governmental supporting of the US economy which has started to show weak signs of growth as we have seen recently the down revision of US annualized GDP of Q1 to 0.4% from 1.8% in the previous reading and weaker than expected growing in the second quarter by 1.6% while it was foreseen to be 1.9% and also June US PCE which came down monthly by 0.2% while the markets were waiting for rising by rising by 0.2% from 0.1% in May showing worries about the US demand ability to support the economy at the current stance after ending of the US QE2 last June with the interest rate is actually near zero on the subsequences of the credit crisis which is strong reason of this debt crisis which is looking harder to be solved after the governmental carrying of the loss weight of the US housing markets exposing the US creditability of downside risks of revision with the current easing of growth pace and the market strong focusing of the debt in US and EU too.

From another side, The Canadian dollar is under pressure by the growing expectations of lower demand for oil from US as the Canadian economy depends on its exports of the raw materials and specially the oil to the US markets that's beside the collapse of June Canadian CPI to 3.1% yearly in June while the markets were waiting for easing to just 3.5% from 3.7% in May which lowered the market expectations of having a new interest rate hiking decision by BOC which gives much care to the US growth pace.

Although the Canadian dollar can find support from being a good safe haven option during the worries about debt in EU and US too beside the tensions in Libya which are supporting the oil prices too and God willing, further rising of US dollar versus the Canadian dollar can be met now by resistance at the parity psychological level and the breaking of it can be followed by 1.006 then 1.0379 while getting down from here can meet supporting levels at 0.9685, 0.96, 0.9567, 0.949 then 0.9405 again where it has formed its recent main bottom to these current rates.

Kind Regards

FX Market Strategist

Walid Salah El Din

E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

http://www.fx-recommends.com

4/8/2011 - The Current Market Sentiment

mail@fx-recommends.com (Walid Salah El Din) — Thu, 04 Aug 2011 11:15:00 +0000

The Markets are waiting now for the ECB's interest rate decision which is widely expected to be for keeping the interest rate unchanged at 1.5% following July hiking by 0.25%, after easing of July EU CPI preliminary reading to 2.5% from 2.7% in June and the market will be focusing on the ECB's president language in the press conference following the decision to know whether or not it will maintain its view that the prices risks are still to the upside or not while it's widely expected to see turning back to the mantra that the ECB is very closely watching the prices which always hints to the markets that there is no close rate hike decision from saying that strong vigilance is warranted which always refers to a coming hiking decision.

The single currency is trading now at 1.423 versus the greenback after the release of June Germane Factor orders which have shown rising monthly by 1.8% as a the same as May while it was expected to decline by 0.1% comparing with June US factory orders which have shown yesterday declining by 0.8% monthly while the markets were waiting for decreasing by 0.4% after rising by 0.6% in May.

God willing the single currency next supporting level versus the greenback is expected to be again at 1.414 level which have supported it previously after falling from 1.4452 to rise again forming a another lower high at 1.437 which is the pair next resistance currently.

The markets will be waiting also today by God's will, for the release of US initial jobless claim which is expected to show rising to 408k from 398k a weak earlier after the release of July US ADP Employment change which came at 114k while the market was waiting for adding just 102k from 157k in June which supported the US stocks markets yesterday with optimism to have better than expected data from the US Labor report of July which is scheduled to be released tomorrow and it is expected to contain rising of July US non-farm payroll to 90k from 18k in June keeping the unemployment rate unchanged at 9.2%.

Kind Regards

FX Market Strategist

Walid Salah El Din

E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

http://www.fx-recommends.com