The Daily Lancer

First Spring Training Games

2007-03-04T15:35:00.000-05:00

Breaking News: Mark Grudzielanek will undergo knee surgery on Monday. There is no timetable for his return, but it is certainly weakens the Royals' defense up the middle until he returns. German will likely become the regular second basemen until he returns. German had an outstanding season for the Royals last year, hitting .326/.422/.459. So, he may be an upgrade offensively over Grudzielanek.

Spring Training games are finally underway and we've gotten a look at some of the Royals' new acquistions.

Game 1: Brian Bannister started for the Royals, pitching very well. Bannister went 2 innings, allowing 0 runs and throwing just 17 pitches (14 strikes). Bannister could be a nice find for the Royals. At the very least, it'll be nice to have someone in the rotation who can throw strikes. Joakim Soria's pitched two scoreless innings. A very good start for the Royals' young pitchers. The other big story was Billy Butler, who hit a 2-run single to put the Royals ahead 6-4. The Royals lost 7-6.

Game 2: Meche pitched well in his Royals' debut, pitching 3 scoreless innings and allowing just 2 hits. Gobble ended up with the victory, even though he allowed 2 runs in 2 innings. Butler continues to hit extremely well. He's 4 for 7 with a double and 2 RBIs so far. Shealy went 1 for 3 with a homerun and 3 RBIs. Huber later took over at first, going 0 for 1. Gordon went 0 for 4, making him 0 for 6 so far.

Game 3: Teahen and Buck homered for the Royals. Huber continues to play 1B, but struggled at the plate going 0 for 3. Perez pitched horribly, going 1 1/3 innings and allowing 4 runs. Perez was worth a shot, but I hope the Royals don't keep him around too long if he doesn't pitch better.

"B" game: Hochevar pitched in Friday's "B" game, throwing 2 scoreless innings. Rosa also pitched a scoreless inning and Buddy Bell was impressed with his stuff.

Sunday's game so far: Luke Hudson had a pretty good start for the Royals, going 3 innings and allowing just 1 run. Zack Greinke has pitched a scoreless innings so far. Alex Gordon got his first hit of the season, the only hit through the fourth inning.

Positives so far: The young players are doing very well. Butler, Shealy, Teahen and Buck have provided most of the Royals' offense. The Royals' young offensive talent is finally starting to show, which should make this season more exciting to watch.

Negatives so far: Perez looks like the Perez from 2006. Also, losing Grudz for an extended period of time is a blow to our defense up the middle, which already has a giant hole at shortstop.

Minor League News: Jeff Bianchi is healthy again. He will likely head to extended spring training and move to Burlington. The Royals' article also says he's throwing from the shortstop position (maybe insinuating a move to short?). Erik Cordier, who had a brillant season until getting hurt, will not pitch until the fall instructional leagues. Cordier may have the most upside of any Royals' pitcher next to Hochevar.

College Prospect Update: James Simmons

2007-03-03T00:53:00.000-05:00

I watched the University of Oklahoma play UC Riverside this afternoon and got a first-hand look at RHP James Simmons. Several scouts were on hand (including a Royals' scout) to watch Simmons and Sooner starter Stephen Porlier (more on him in another post). Here's a brief bio of James Simmons:

Simmons is a junior at UC Riverside. He is a 6'4", 215 lbs right-handed pitcher. Last season, he led the team with a 2.96 ERA and led the team with 94 strikeouts in 109 1/3 innings. Simmons pitched in the Cape Cod League last summer and had a 1.18 ERA in 53 innings. Baseball America listed him as the eighth-best prospect in the Cape Cod League.

Projected Draft Position:
Simmons is currently listed on Baseball America's Top 100 collegiate prospects for the 2007 draft. Brewerfan.net currently has Simmons listed as the #59 prospect in the country, which would make him an early to mid second round. If he continues performing well, he probably won't be around when the Royals make their selection with the #65 overall pick in the 2nd round. But, he's worth keeping an eye on.

2007 Stats:

4-1 2.38 ERA 34 IP 38 SOs 8 BBs .185 BAA

Simmons is off to a good start for 2007. Simmons is a candidate for the Roger Clemens' Award for the top collegiate pitcher. Before Simmon's start today, he was 4-0 with a 0.62 ERA. However, he struggled against the Sooner offense, allowing 9 hits on 7 runs in 5 innings.

Scouting Report: Simmons strongest asset is his control, which was fairly absent today. In addition to his two walks, Simmons hit two batters today. So, his performance today probably isn't the best for evaluating him. Simmons displayed an average (cut) fastball sitting at 89-90 mph. His second main pitch was his changeup, which wasn't very effective in keeping the Sooner hitters off-balance.

Simmons has a very high leg kick (see photo at start of post), but does a very good job of maintaining balance over his right leg during his delivery. He has a very clean, repeatable delivery overall and fields his position well.

Here's a short video clip of Simmons: Simmons Video

Summary: Simmons has pretty average stuff, but has plus command of his repertoire. He has a projectable frame at 6'4", 215 lbs, so he may end up throwing harder than 90 mph. If he's available when the Royals make their second-round selection, he would be a good pickup.

Coming up: Wichita State Prospects

Coming Soon!

2007-03-01T02:36:00.000-05:00

I will have an in-depth look at 3 of Baseball America's top 100 college draft prospects. This will be the beginning of draft coverage from the Daily Lancer featuring college player previews with photos and maybe some videos.

Royals Ink Gobble and Brown

2007-01-17T11:31:00.000-05:00

The Royals avoided arbitration with Emil Brown and Jimmy Gobble, signing both to 1-year contracts. Gobble signed for $712,500. Gobble had a good year in the pen last year, striking out 80 in 84 innings. Certainly a good sign for a pitcher who used to strike out one batter every 3 innings. Gobble's stuff is probably best suited for the bullpen, especially since his fastball can reach 94 mph more regularly. He can also spot start and did a decent job last year (5.14 ERA as starter).

The Royals signed Emil Brown to a one-year, $3.4 million deal. Brown has been one of the Royals' most productive bats over the past two seasons, leading the team in RBI's over that period. With Brown and Sanders under contract, the Royals will have plenty of time to let Teahen transition to the outfield and give Gordon as much time as needed in the minors.

The Royals also signed Alex Gonzalez to a minor-league contract. He was downright awful for the Devil Rays last year, hitting .111/.158/.111 in 36 ABs. His career line of .243/.302/.391 isn't anything to brag about, but he is a good backup shortstop.

The Royals are still negotiating with Todd Wellemeyer. Wellemeyer has good stuff, but his even K/BB ratio is certainly a concern for next year. He may have trouble repeating a pretty good season last year if he can't improve his command. Nonetheless, he's a cheap, young reliever, so he's worth re-signing.

Minor League Chat

2007-01-10T01:37:00.000-05:00

meteorologistdave: The Royals seem to have set the main positions in the roster for 2007. The Royals could still use another veteran starter or reliever to add some depth. But, for the most part, the 2007 Royals are ready to go. And of course, if someone will take Angel Berroa, then by all means take him!

garoyal23: What I'd like to see the Royals do between now and Opening Day is to trade from our position of strength (outfielders) to land some more pitching depth. It doesn't matter to me if that depth is at the major league level or a legit minor leaguer. We just need depth. Like you say, Angel Berroa is a huge question mark. His numbers have been declining every year, but his defense seems to be improving. I'm comfortable giving him another year to see what happens with him. If he declines for the 4th straight year, then cut your losses. However, if he manages a .270 average with an OPS of around .670 to .700, then that will satisfy me. That being said, I'd like to see Moore sign a veteran middle infielder that could possible slide into the SS role if Berroa fails. Someone to push him.

meteorologistdave: Using their outfield depth to acquire more pitching or a shortstop would be a welcome move. Speaking of the Royals' tremendous depth at the corners, let's get started with Alex Gordon. If you put Gordon in the lineup now, he's probably going to be the best hitter in the lineup, even as a rookie. However, that could be detrimental to his development. I think he could use at least a couple months at AAA before he becomes the Royals' everyday third basemen.

garoyal23: I haven't seen anything that makes me think that Gordon will be a liability at third base defensively. I am leaning toward having him start in out in KC in 2007. That makes the lineup stronger instantly. I'm not sure where he'd start out in the lineup (I'm guessing 6th), but he'd definitely make the lineup stronger. Teahen was rushed to the majors, in large part to Chris Truby's spring training injury, and he struggled in his first full season. I really don't see that going on with Gordon. He put up fantastic numbers last year in AA. He's more of a hitter than Teahen at AA. If he starts in KC, he'd do fine with the bat and fine with the glove.

meteorologistdave: I think Gordon is talented enough to do very well in the majors right away, I just think it would be beneficial to give him a little more experience. Gordon's draft counterpart Ryan Zimmerman has already logged 672 ABs, so I'm guessing Gordon is probably ready. I just tend to be cautious, especially considering how important his development is to the future of the franchise. The next most likely prospect to make the team, Billy Butler?

garoyal23: In my mind, the thing that will keep Butler from making the team will be his defense. He was drafted as a 3B. He was then moved to 1B. Then moved to the OF. From what I've seen, he isn't doing all that badly defensively, but he would surely benefit from spending 2007 (or the greater part of it) in AAA working on his defense. I think the Omaha OF will be Lubanski in left, Maier in center and Butler in right. Huber will get the majority of his ABs (if he's not traded) from the DH spot in the order, but he's likely to play the field as well, so he's not viewed as one dimensional when Moore is shopping him.

meteorologistdave: That's pretty much what I was thinking when I asked the question. This season will tell us a lot about the future positions of Butler and Huber. My guess is that one of the two will become the Royals' left fielder (probably Butler) and the other will see time at DH. Of course, then there's talk about Huber moving back to catcher. So, his future is really up in the air. Butler is young enough I think he can become a passable left fielder. So, with Butler/Huber in left field and Teahen in right, how does that bode for the future of Lubanski, Maier, Costa, and the Royals' other outfield prospects?

garoyal23: DeJesus is under contract through the 2010 season (there's a team option for 2011), so he's going to be a fixture in center field for a long time. Well past the time that the Royals will have to make a decision on the futures of those you mentioned. I've seen that Maier has drawn some interest from other clubs and could eventually be traded. I'm sure that Costa is one that other teams would be interested in as well. I'd like to keep Lubanski in the organization, though. He is a young kid and has reached the AAA level. Both Lubanski and Maier were drafted in '03, so they could stay in the Royals minor leagues through the 2008 season. At that time, Lubanski would be only 23 and Maier would be 26. Shane Costa (also drafted in 2003) would be turning 27 after the 2008 season.

meteorologistdave: Lubanski would be a good prospsect to keep around considering his upside. He's just a year older than Butler and he's held his own offensively over the past two seasons. Maier could also be useful as a fourth outfielder with his versatility (he can play all the outfield positions). The outfield situation looks pretty good and the Royals have plenty of options and time to make these decisions with Sanders and probably Brown in the outfield this season. The Royals seem set everywhere except the middle infield positions. German's defense will have to improve before he becomes an everyday second basemen. Are there any middle infield prospects who seem like they could be the second basemen or shortstop of the future? Outside of Jeff Bianchi, who can't get out of rookie ball, I can't think of any who stand out.

garoyal23: I can't either. There's Sanchez and Blanco in the upper minors. Sanchez has the glove for SS (Blanco, too, for that matter) but I don't think either will put up the offensive numbers that you like to see out of your SS. Sanchez is going to need a full season at AAA and then we'll have to see what happens after that. We are set at 2B this season with Grudzielanek and probably 2008, as he has a player option for '08 ($4.0 to $4.5 million). I've read that Bianchi profiles out better as a 2B, rather than SS (I guess it has to do with his range). So, the way it looks, we've got no one to look to as our SS of the future. We used to think we were set at 2B for the future with Gotay and Murphy in the system, but they are both gone and all we got was Jeff Keppinger (who was recently DFA'd).

meteorologistdave: The middle infield looks pretty bare, so it'll be interesting to see what Moore can do to fix that. Next time we'll discuss the Royals' pitching and catching prospects. I guess that will mainly be a discussion about the Royals’ pitching prospects since there aren’t really any catching prospects to discuss.

Did the Royals really overpay Meche?

2006-12-29T14:02:00.000-05:00

Barry Zito signed a 7-year, $126 million deal with the Giants yesterday, continuing the trend of overpriced starting pitching. The two top starters in the free agent market pulled over $15 million a year. But, they are clearly the two best starters available and will fill the ace role nicely for any team willing to spend the money.

Here's a list of the contracts given to the top free agent starters this offseason. The dashed line separates the two tiers of starters.

Ranked in terms of cost:
1. Barry Zito, 28 (7 years at $18 million/yr, total: $126 million)
2. Jason Schmidt, 33 (3 years at $15.7 million/yr, total $47 million)
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3. Gil Meche, 28 (5 years at $11 million/yr, total: $55 million)
4. Jeff Suppan, 31 (4 years at $10.5 million/yr, total: $42 million)
5. Ted Lilly, 30 (4 years at $10 million/yr, total: $40 million)
6. Miguel Bautista, 35 (3 years at $8.33 million/yr, total: $25 million)
7. Adam Eaton, 29 (3 years at $8.17 million/yr, total $24.5 million)

Meche was the most expensive pitcher out of the second-tier of starters in terms of contract length and cost per year. Was this justified by his market value or did the Royals overpay?

Justified:

Meche is the youngest of the free agent starters listed above. That certainly increases his market value. Meche also has the most upside of the second-tier starters, although Eaton is close. Eaton had a poor year which hurt his market value considerably. Suppan and Bautista are considerably older and are league-average starters, so there's no upside there. In terms of upside, age, and recent performance, Meche is the best available pitcher.

Overpaid:

The main downside to Meche is his past injury problems. Giving a 5-year contract to an injury prone player is certainly risky business. Meche also struggled in 2004 and 2005, most likely because of injury problems. He had a good season last year, with a 4.48 ERA and a 1.86 K/BB. Will his success continue or was it just an anomaly?

Conclusion: The Royals signed Meche for a deal that was reasonable for the market.

Daily Lancer Discussion: Offseason Moves

2006-12-22T01:11:00.000-05:00

Now that we have Darren's thoughts on the offseason moves thus far, georgiaroyal and I decided to have a discussion about the Royals' offseason moves:

georgiaroyal: I suppose we've got to begin with the job that Moore is doing in his first offseason as the Royals GM. What I really appreciate, as a fan, is action on his part. Some may quibble about the money that's been spent and so on, but staying with what we had just wasn't a viable option.

soonerroyal: I certainly agree with that. Although the Meche deal seems well to be extremely expensive, he is immediately better than anyone on the staff for the past several years. He's also made some major changes to the bullpen. It seems as though Dayton Moore is moving away from the young power arms and relying on veteran relievers.

georgiaroyal: Meche is getting $7 million in '07 and then it jumps to $11 million in '08-'09 and then $12 million in '10 and '11. Sweeney's contract coming off of the books after this season helps us afford him, and I'd rather have money wrapped up in a pitcher than a position player, anyway. I like what's being done in the pen. We need guys that can come in and throw strikes. How frustrating has it been to watch a guy trot in from the pen and struggle with the zone?

soonerroyal: That's a very good point. And it seems like the Royals are gravitating toward strike throwers and getting rid of the guys who have no clue where the strikezone is (Burgos, Sisco). However, it still hurts to see great young arms leave the team, especially when they cost so little. But, this team needs a change. The major league team is getting the overhaul it needs to become a functional unit again. Allard's teams placed the burden mainly on the youngsters. But, it looks like Dayton is going to place the burden on veterans and once the young players are ready to contribute, then everything should come together.

georgiaroyal: That is very much the way it has worked for the Braves over the past 15 years. Now, instead of being forced to put guys like Greinke in the rotation, we can leave them in the minors until they are absolutely ready. Dayton's money is being spent on different types of players than Baird when he had a little to play with. I'm less concerned signing guys like Meche, Dotel, Bale, and Riske than when Baird brought in Santiago and Juan Gonzalez. The reward is much more likely than with those types of guys.

soonerroyal: I really like the potential reward from the Meche deal. He's entering the prime of his career and he's coming off a strong season when he was healthy for the first time. Dotel is a very good closer if he's healthy and is only 33. Those are certainly good gambles. Gonzalez and Santiago, as you mentioned, were well past their prime and had more risk than reward.

soonerroyal: Moving on to the Royals’ recent trades, the Sisco for Gload trade still strikes me as rather odd. The Royals gave up a very talented lefty for a reserve first basemen/outfielder. I'm still having trouble justifying this deal, although Gload will be a useful player certainly. He gets on base at a decent clip and has modest power. But, giving up a young power arm seems pretty risky. It's the type of move a contender would make to complete their team, but not a team that needs to build a core of talented players.
georgiaroyal: At the risk of sounding like a Moore-lover (maybe I am...a little), I do like the acqusition of Gload. He gives Shealy a backup at 1B as well as a guy that can play a corner OF position. This makes Sanders and Brown even more expendible than they already are. Our list of guys that can play the outfield in KC next year is: Teahen, DeJesus, Gathright, Brown, Sanders, Costa, Gload, and possibly Maier, Huber, and Butler. Wow. That sure is a long list, but the primary reason for getting him was to have competition for Shealy. He'll be a good guy to have around for that. I agree about giving up Sisco, though. It is risky, but I don't think that one will come back to bite us. I really don't. The league adjusted to him and he had nothing else to go to.

georgiaroyal: Sisco averaged 5.02 BB/9 innings in his rookie year (his good year). Last year, that number jumped to 6.17 BB/9 innings. That isn't what you want coming out of the pen.

soonerroyal: Sisco certainly has a lot of development left. He's going to have to learn another pitch and improve his command. If he does (probably a big IF), he could be a top setup man or closer. But, Gload will ensure Sweeney never takes the field and give the Royals options at the outfield spots. I just think that with all of the outfield options the Royals have, signing someone like Mientkiewicz could have accomplished the same thing without giving up a young arm. But, it's not a terrible move. What are your thoughts on the Jason LaRue acquistion?

georgiaroyal: That's true. It's not terrible, but it would have been nice to send Sisco to the minors for a year or so and see what happens with him.

Getting LaRue was a deal that I didn't pay that much attention to. The Reds are paying half the '07 salary. He's a low average hitter with some pop in his bat. That sounds like a certain someone we know, doesn't it? Buck just hasn't put it together, yet, so getting LaRue will either push Buck to produce or it will prove him to be a solid part time/backup catcher. John isn't a young Buck (pun intended). I'm still holding out hope that he will have a breakout year and approach 18-20 HR and a .260 batting average. I think he's capable of those type of numbers. Hopefully, hearing LaRue's footsteps will inspire him to reach those numbers.

soonerroyal: Buck and LaRue are very similar. Their offensive numbers are very similar, their SB/CS ratio is very similar. He's basically an older version of Buck. So, hopefully the Royals just acquired him to bring in some competition in case Buck struggles. LaRue isn't a guy you want as your starting catcher. I think Buck has some upside as well. He's shown pretty good power at times, so maybe his bat is just taking a while to develop.

georgiaroyal: Buck will be turning 27 this season. He's approaching his prime, and I do expect him to put up some better offensive numbers in 2007.

georgiaroyal: Before the season starts, I'd still like to see some moves made, and I expect to see some action with all of our outfielders. Maybe we can use Brown/Sanders (or both) to acquire some more pitching depth or maybe a shortstop of the future to push Berroa. We are set at all of our infield positions. We are definitely set in the outfield, and catcher. If the Royals have some money and want to acquire another veteran starter, I don't think I'd have a problem with it. We don't have a lot of young guys knocking the door down, so let them continue to develop.

georgiaroyal: I'll admit that I'm always high on the number of wins I predict, but right now, this looks like a team that could win between 75-80 games.

soonerroyal: That pretty much echoes my sentiments. The Royals are pretty well set overall, but the more reliable veteran starters the team can get, the better. I'm certainly looking forward to the season and being able to watch a stable rotation for once. Hopefully it will put an end to all the random waiver wire starters the Royals have used over the past few seasons. I'm not quite as optimistic, but I think 70-75 games is pretty reasonable. If Butler and Gordon get up here quickly and make an impact right away, I could certainly see 75-80 games. On our next post, we'll have a discussion about any new Royals' moves as well as our thoughts about the Royals’ depth chart, particularly at the top.

Who's the next Beltran?

2006-11-05T11:52:00.000-05:00

The centerfield position has become a pretty solid position for the Royals. Between David DeJesus and Joey Gathright, the Royals should be able to have quality centerfield play for at least the next 5 years. The main question is whether or not Gathright will hit enough to become an everyday player. DeJesus is an average to slightly above-average defender in the outfield. He’s an above-average hitter as a centerfielder and a fringe average hitter as a left fielder. So, unless Gathright improves his production offensively, I think DeJesus will eventually move back to center, especially with Teahen, Huber, Lubanski and maybe Butler become options as corner outfielders. The Royals’ corner outfield depth is much stronger than there centerfielder depth, so having two good options for centerfielders is crucial.

High Minors:

The Royals don’t really have any CF prospects at AAA. Chad Allen is the only outfielder listed on the Omaha Royals roster at the moment, and he isn’t a centerfielder. Mitch Maier is the Royals’ best centerfield prospect. Maier is a solid player all-around, with at average to above-average power, speed, and defense in centerfield. Maier’s strong arm will allow him to play all three outfield positions, which should make him at least a good fourth outfielder. Overall, Maier had a good season, hitting .306/.357/.473 with 35 2Bs and 13 HRs. He’ll likely start at Omaha and could work his way on to the big league club at some point during this season.

Low Minors:

The Royals don’t have any CF prospects at High Desert or Burlington.

Rookie Ball:

Dickerson has put together two nice seasons in a row. Dickerson hit 14 doubles and 7 HRs in 242 ABs for Idaho Falls. His overall line of .281/.338/.789 is pretty good overall. As a rookie, Dickerson hit .294/.371/.491, so he has a pretty solid track record going. His defense is supposed to be his best asset and he should develop modest power with time. Dickerson will likely start at Burlington next year.

Derrick Robinson was the Royals’ 4th round pick this season. He turned down a football scholarship to sign with the Royals. His pro debut was very lackluster, hitting just .233/.335/.318. Robinson’s speed is phenomenal and he stole 20 bases, but also got caught 14 times. If he can learn how to get on-base regularly, he might have a chance to use his speed in the big leagues.

Overall: The Royals are in good shape in centerfield. DeJesus should be a solid player for several years and the Royals have good depth overall. There aren't any Damon or Beltran-like talents on the way, but no one is complaining with DeJesus in centerfield.

What's on Second

2006-10-19T23:20:00.000-04:00

The Royals have gone through a never-ending carousel of second basemen since heralded prospect Carlos Febles disappeared. Since Febles left, the Royals have struggled to find a regular second basemen and the Royals cycled through a variety of prospects and utility infielders looking for a solution. Ruben Gotay and Donnie Murphy were considered the second basemen of the future, but they weren’t ready for full-time duty in 2005.

Last season, Allard signed Mark Grudzielanek to a one-year deal and the signing turned out to be his best signing of the offseason and one of the few bright spots in his horrible tenure as general manager. Grudzielanek was the Royals’ most consistent defender, helping to alleviate the damage caused by his teammate on the other side of second. Grudzielanek led the team in hits and had 43 extra base hits. The Royals resigned Grudzielanek for 2007 season, so the second base position is good shape.

Baird also acquired Esteban German from the Rangers in exchange for the Royals’ Rule V Pick last season. German turned out to be one of the bright spots in the Royals’ 2006 season, posting a team-high .880 OPS. German is an on-base machine with very good speed. German would allow the Royals to move DeJesus into the #2 spot in the lineup and have an excellent tandem of speed and on-base ability at the top of the lineup. That should set the stage for plenty of RBI opportunities for Butler, Gordon, Shealy, and Teahen over the next few years.

As you may have noticed, I haven’t talked about the minor league second basemen much and that’s because there’s not much to talk about. The Royals’ top second base prospect is Donnie Murphy. Murphy showed pretty good power this season at AA, hitting 25 doubles and 14 HRs. However, he drew just 19 walks in 366 ABs, so his plate discipline has a ways to go. Murphy is a pretty good defender, with above-average range for second. Murphy hits righties much better than lefties, with a .786 OPS against righties vs. a .531 OPS against lefties.

The Royals other option near the majors is Jeff Keppinger. Keppinger had a nice season for Omaha, hitting .354/.407/.465 in 127 ABs. Keppinger hit .267/.323/.400 in 60 ABs with the big league club. He's 26 years old, so he isn't much of a prospect at this point.

Wilver Perez was the Mavericks’ second basemen. Perez hit .262/.343/.350 in 351 ABs. Perez is 23 years old, so he’s a bit too old for High A ball. He is most likely an organizational player at this point.

Josh Johnson was the Royals’ third round pick in the 2004 draft and Burlington’s second basemen this season. Johnson hit .241/.391/.312 in 381 ABs and walked 93 times! He showed good speed, swiping 18 bases in 27 attempts. Johnson’s defense improved from 2005, making just 10 errors in 2006. Johnson is a decent sleeper prospect and might develop into a decent leadoff hitter with his excellent plate discipline and good speed.

Kurt Mertins had a nice professional debut. The 20-year-old from the College of Desert hit .342/.397/.431. Mertins also stole 26 bases in 30 attempts (only played in 61 games). Mertins might be worth watching for the same reasons as Johnson.

Marc Maddox was another collegiate second basemen drafted by the Royals this season. Maddox hit .336/.428/.504 in 232 ABs. Maddox showed more power than Mertins, with 29 extra base hits in 62 games.

Overall, the Royals have some depth at second base. The Royals already have a quality starting second basemen in Mark Grudzielanek and a solid player waiting to take over after the 2007 season in Esteban German. This should give the Royals an opportunity to add some more high-ceiling talent at second base. The Royals don’t have any standout prospects at second base, but have some young players who could emerge as second base prospects over the next few years.

Catching Down on the Farm

2006-10-13T23:58:00.000-04:00

Over the next few weeks, the Daily Lancer team will be doing an in-depth analysis of the Royals' minor league talent at each position. We'll let you know where the Royals' best depth and talent lies and how soon the Royals' prospects will make an impact on the big league club.

We begin with probably the weakest position in the farm system, catching. John Buck's lackluster performance over the past two seasons has made the catching position an increasing concern. Buck finished the season with an OPS of .702, a slight 26 point improvement over 2005. He's a solid defender behind the plate, which helps compensate for his weakness at the plate. He's the catcher of the future because the Royals simply don't have any better options in the minors.

Near the Majors: We begin our look at the minors with Paul Phillips and Matt Tupman. Paul Phillips has already seen some big league action, with 137 career at-bats and an unimpressive .270/.279/.380 line. He's walked just once in 137 at-bats, contributing to his low OPS. Matt Tupman's plate discipline is much better, with drawing 56 walks to just 33 strikeouts this season. However, his lack of power(SLG %.334) will keep him from becoming more than a backup. Both players are in their upper 20s, appear to be no more than AAAA players and backup catchers.

A/AA: Adam Donachie highlights the A/AA list. Donachie's prowess is his defense behind the plate, which is very good. His weakness is his bat. He struggled after being promoted to Wichita, with a .633 OPS. His home/road splits at Wichita also showed a strong home bias, with an OPS 148 points higher at home. Donachie is still young (22 years old), particularly for a catcher. So, his bat may improve considerably over the next few seasons.

The Royals drafted 3 college catchers in the 2005 draft, Kiel Thibault, Jeffrey Howell, and Brady Everett. All three did well in rookie ball, but only Thibault continued his success into this season. Thibault hit very well (.340/.398/.485 line) at High Desert, but struggled in the less hitter-friendly Midwest League.

I looked through the Rookie Leagues, but didn't find any prospects worth noting. Overall, catcher is a significant weakness in the organization. The Royals could use a good left-handed bat to counter Buck's weakness against righties. The Royals don't have any catching prospects who project as major league regulars, so the Royals will need to improve their depth in the upcoming draft and with any offseason moves.

Grades:
Depth: D-
Impact Talent: F

Up next: Third Basemen (i.e. Alex Gordon)

Daily Lancer Welcomes Two New Bloggers

2006-10-05T17:25:00.000-04:00

I decided to make some changes to the Daily Lancer, the most important being the addition of two new bloggers, georgiaroyal and nwroyal. The names may sound familiar from the scout.com board where they both post regularly. Georgiaroyal and nwroyal both follow the Royals' farm system very closely and will be great additions to the Daily Lancer.

The Daily Lancer is going to be dedicated to providing in-depth coverage of the Royals' farm system. Here's a few of the features that are in the works for the Daily Lancer:

-Nightly minor-league updates during the season
-Top prospect lists and depth chart complied by the Daily Lancer's minor league experts
-In-depth look at the Royals' top prospects, examining their past season's performance and projection/future roles in the organization
-Pre-draft coverage, including photos and first-hand accounts of some top draft prospects
-Photos and first-hand accounts of Royals' top prospects
-Examination of the minor league talent throughout the division

I hope you enjoy it!

Bell is Safe for Now

2006-09-02T14:15:00.000-04:00

The Royals report that Buddy's job is safe, for now at least. Moore says that Bell is "the least of our problems right now", which isn't entirely untrue. The Royals can't hit, pitch, or play defense and a new manager isn't going to change that. The difference between a great manager and a monkey running a baseball team is probably about 10 to 15 wins. It can be the difference between a good team and a great team. But, as far as the Royals are concerned, it really doesn't matter. The Royals' primary focus must be improving the talent, everything else is secondary. However, the manager issue should be addressed. If Buddy Bell isn't the best manager for the long-term, then he should be replaced at the end of the season. If Moore thinks Bell is the long-term solution at manager, then I'll be a bit worried.

In other news, Reggie Sanders doesn't have a tear in his knee, so he should be ready to go for next season. Also, Ryan Braun will be joining the Royals. Braun has 3 saves and a 2.16 ERA for Omaha.

The Royals have played well of late, winning 4 of their last 7 games. Mark Teahen continues his surprising sophomore surge, hitting his 18th HR of the season and driving in 3 runs. DeJesus and Shealy both had 2-hit games for the Royals. Shealy has been alright offensively since joining the Royals. His overall line is pretty good (.305/.354/.424), although he hasn't shown as much power as I thought he would.

Hernandez had another very good start yesterday, going 6 innings and allowing just 1 run. He's allowed just 1 run in his last 15 innings. Hernandez will need a strong September to build a case for him returning next year. He figures to make $1.5 to 2 million next season with arbitration. I don't think Hernandez is worth that money and he will become a non-tender candidate or trade bait.

Luke Hudson is a good bet to return as a starter for the Royals next season. Hudson has made quality starts in 7 of his last 9 starts. So, aside from his disastrous start against Cleveland, he's been a very good starter for the Royals. The rest of the Royals' rotation for next year is a mystery. Zack Greinke will most likely rejoin the big league club next year. Odalis Perez, who starts tonight, is also under contract for next year. So, Hudson, Perez, and Greinke are the 3 most likely starters for next year.

Omaha Royals

2006-08-27T17:43:00.000-04:00

I went to the Omaha Royals vs. Oklahoma Redhawks game on Friday night. The Omaha Royals won 4-2 in a well-pitched game by both teams. Mike Wood made a rehab start for the Wranglers and left the game in the 3rd inning. Wood was pretty hittable, giving up a lot of line drives. The defense also made a few mistakes behind him, contributing to his early departure. Pat Mahomes came in and pitched 5 1/3 shutout innings. Mahomes has a strange delivery, but kept hitters off-balance with good offspeed stuff. Leo Nunez closed out the game with a solid inning and picked up his 4th save.

On the offensive end, Shane Costa hit his 10th HR of the season, a blast to right field that bounced off the back of the bullpen. Paul Phillips had two hits, including a double. Kerry Robinson drove in the game-winning run.

Here are my impressions of some Omaha players:

Justin Huber: Huber didn't have a great night at the plate, but he hit the ball hard twice. Huber looked pretty comfortable in left field. He looked faster than I expected, getting to balls in the gap quickly. He did a pretty good job reading flyballs and made a tough catch against the wall in LF. I think Huber will end up as a left fielder in the majors and it was a good decision to move him there. I don't think it's unreasonable to think he could be the Royals' starting left fielder next year.

Shane Costa: Costa looked pretty pissed off, most likely because he wasn't promoted to the big league club after Sanders' injury. Costa hit a very deep homerun to RF. Costa has shown improved power this season. Costa is naturally very strong like Teahen, so I think he could have a breakout season like Teahen.

Mike Aviles: Aviles looked surprisingly big. He showed good speed on the basepaths as well and drew a couple of walks. He's probably a AAAA player, but could be a useful utility guy.

Paul Phillips: Phillips had a nice night at the plate and has shown decent power this season (9 HRs). I wasn't impressed with his defense, particularly his throws. He had two wild throws during the game, on to second and the other to third. As much as Royals' fans lament Buck, Phillips isn't the answer either.

Leo Nunez: Nunez pitched a very good inning for the Royals. He allowed just one hit, a bloop single. I didn't see him throw much other than his fastball though, but he commanded it well.

My camera battery wasn't fully charged, so I only got a few good pictures, but here they are:

Royals Win

2006-08-23T01:39:00.000-04:00

Sorry for not posting much of late, been very busy. The Royals put together a nice win tonight. Mark Teahen has had an outstanding season, exceeding all expectations. Tonight, he went 4 for 4 with a HR (16), a pair of doubles, and 2 RBIs. Teahen does everything well. He's hitting for power, getting on-base, stealing bases, and playing solid defense. He's a complete player, pretty similar to what most people think Alex Gordon will become, with maybe slightly less offensive ability. Nonetheless, his improved power and plate discipline have made him into an excellent hitter. It's still uncertain whether Teahen or Gordon will change positions. But, the Royals have a great problem to have with two very good third basemen.

Odalis Perez pitched well for the Royals, allowing just 2 runs in 7 innings, striking out 4 and walking just 1. He's pitched better for the Royals, with a 4.66 ERA after 5 starts for the Royals. The trade for Perez and two young minor leaguers for Dessens is looking like a very good one for the Royals.

In other news, Chris Nicoll was promoted to High Desert. Nicoll has very good numbers at Burlington, with a 2.82 ERA and 140 strikeouts to 40 walks. The Royals have been pretty conservative with their pitchers this season. Brent Fisher is still in the Arizona Rookie League, which he's dominating for the second season in a row. I'm not sure what's wrong with a 2.28 ERA, 80 strikeouts to 16 walks, and just 2 HRs allowed in 59 innings. Looking at the stats, it'd seem there's nothing left for him to prove. However, they must have something in mind for him to work on.

I will be at the Omaha Royals game on Friday, so I will provide some insight on the Omaha team this weekend as well as pictures from the game. If there's anyone you want me to focus on, let me know.

Royals End Skid

2006-08-15T19:20:00.000-04:00

The team that had played roughly average baseball for June and July has vanished. The Royals' team we've grown accustomed to has reappeared as we all knew it would. The starting pitching has been awful, particularly over the past few games. Luke Hudson's 11-run, 1/3 inning start may have been one of the worst all-time. Hudson didn't have good command, but the Indians weren't hitting him hard (except for one homerun). He just couldn't find the strikezone. Most of the balls hit against him were grounders that found holes or and the worst's deepest trench, Angel Berroa. So, perhaps there is still some hope for him. Redman's start last night wasn't much better, surrendering 8 runs in 3 2/3 innings.

The Royals finally broke their skid of horrible baseball. The Royals won 4-2 on Tuesday thanks to an unexpected quality start from Runvelys Hernandez, who has been completely useless this season. Mark Teahen continues to be the Royals' best bet, hitting his 14th HR to centerfield. Teahen's development of good power has been the nicest surpise of the season. Emil Brown has also continued to hit well. Brown has hit 4 HRs and is sporting a .326/.385/.674 line so far in August. Brown has a .800 OPS overall on the season, a slight decrease from last season. Nonetheless, Brown remains one of the Royals' most productive bats. I'd much rather have Brown back for next season than Reggie Sanders, but the $5 million on Sander's contract will make him tough to move.

The 2007 Rotation:

The Royals have no continuity whatsoever in the rotation. That's a problem that must be addressed in the offseason. The Royals need to acquire at least two reliable veteran starters, especially if Odalis Perez doesn't revert to his 2005 form. Hernandez has been terrible this season, so he will likely be non-tendered. Elarton might be back by midseason, but he isn't worth saving a spot for. Jimmy Gobble appears to be best suited for a setup role, so he probably won't be a starter. Hudson and De La Rosa have great stuff, but they are very inconsistent. The Royals will have Greinke back next year and Lumsden will probably join the rotation at some point. But, most of the spots are wide open.

2007 Rotation:
FA
FA
Perez
Greinke
Hudson/De La Rosa/Lumsden

Organizational Outlook: Starting Pitching

2006-08-09T01:07:00.000-04:00

The Royals' starting pitching has been dreadful for the past decade, finishing at the bottom in most pitching statistics. This season is no exception, with the Royals' starters having the highest ERA, fewest strikeouts, tons of walks, and the fewest innings pitched. So, is there hope for the Royals' rotation? The Royals' starting pitching depth has shown significant improvement over the past few months, particularly at lower levels. The Royals also have a few talented starters who could be mainstays in the rotation by 2008.

Predicting the rotation in 2008 is a pretty tough task. The Royals' current rotation doesn't have any starters who will likely be long-term starters for the Royals. Perez, Elarton, and Redman's contracts will have expired by 2008 and Hernandez will be released or non-tendered this offseason. Jimmy Gobble is best suited for the bullpen, although he may become a #5 starter if given enough opportunity. Luke Hudson might be the best bet to become a good starter for the Royals, as he has pretty good stuff and appears to have figured out his command problems.

Here's the 2008 Rotation filled from within:

#1 Luke Hochevar
#2 Zack Greinke
#3 Tyler Lumsden
#4 Luke Hudson
#5 Billy Buckner

Hochevar, Greinke, and Lumsden have frontline to mid-rotation starter talent, but they probably won't reach that potential until 2008 or 2009 (if they ever do). Realistically, I think one of those starters will reach their potential as a frontline starter, one will be an average starter, and one will be a bust or get injured. Given the Royals' track record of developing pitching, that is probably an optimistic outlook. Nonetheless, the Royals need to add some more top starting prospects to improve their chances of building an above-average rotation.

Starting Pitching Prospects: Hochevar, Greinke, and Lumsden give the Royals the best shot at a quality rotation by 2008. By that time, the Royals should have another group of starters approaching the majors as well. The Royals' currently have a very good rotation at Burlington featuring this next wave of pitching talent.

The Burlington rotation features 5 good young starters, Cordier, Nicoll, Kniginyzky, Rosa, and Cortes. Cordier has the best stuff and has been lights out for Burlington. He could move very quickly through the Royals' farm system and has frontline starter potential. Nicoll is probably the second-best bet to become a major-league starter. He also should move quickly as a polished college pitcher with excellent control. Kniginyzky is also a college pitcher who was converted to a starter this season and has pretty good stuff. Rosa has good stuff and is still pretty young. His command still needs some work though. Cortes is the youngest of the group at age 19 and is holding his own in low A ball. Overall, the Burlington rotation gives the Royals 5 good arms who could all emerge as mid-rotation starters by the end of the decade.

High Desert also has a few starters worth noting. Blake Johnson, acquired in the Dessens/Perez deal, has excellent command and good strikeout numbers. Luis Cota has struggled at High Desert, but he still has a live arm with lots of potential. Cota has pitched better lately, so maybe he's starting to master High Desert.

Overall, the Royals have much improved pitching depth, particularly in the low minors. While the improvements probably won't help the big-league team for a few years, they should make an impact once the Royals' offensive core has fully developed at the major leagues.

Organizational Needs: The Royals need some veteran pitching to improve the rotation until Greinke, Lumsden, and Hochevar are ready. The Royals also need more pitching prospects near the major leagues so they can improve the rotation in the next couple of years.

Offseason Moves: Moore should continue to focus on getting more young pitching into the Royals' organization, as he did throughout July. The Royals need a couple of veteran starters to anchor the rotation in addition to Perez. The free agent market has a lot more starters around the age of 28-30 who are decent #3 or 4 starters. So, the Royals should be able to get one of those starters fairly easily.

Organizational Outlook: Up The Middle

2006-08-07T23:40:00.000-04:00

The Royals have some problems up the middle. The Royals don't have many options at catcher and John Buck is still questionable as an everyday catcher. The Royals have a few options at second base, although none are particularly young. The Royals have a shortstop who is the worst everyday player in major league baseball and two young minor leaguers who are still a couple years away from being better. The Royals are in good shape in centerfield, with two quality options in Gathright and DeJesus.

Centerfield:

The exception to the Royals' weakness up the middle is centerfield, where the Royals have an established centerfielder in David DeJesus who has been moved to a corner spot for Joey Gathright. If Gathright doesn't develop into a base-stealing, on-base machine to counter his poor bat, then the Royals still have DeJesus to play centerfield. The Royals also have a solid, all-around centerfielder in Mitch Maier, who is having a good season at AA. So, the Royals shouldn't have any problems fielding a quality centerfielder. After all, when was the last time the Royals didn't have a very good centerfielder? The pre-Damon era?

Shortstop:

The shortstop position is the exact opposite of the centerfield position. The Royals have had a lot of trouble finding a quality shortstop over the past decade. Angel Berroa is a horrible baseball player who will make $8 million over the next two seasons. The Royals' two best options in the minors are Andres Blanco and Angel Sanchez. Blanco has a worse bat than Berroa and he may be a better defender, but he possesses the same maddening inconsistency on defense that Berroa has. Sanchez may eventually be the best hitter of the three, but his defense still needs a lot of work. Blanco and Sanchez will not be quality options until the end of Berroa's contract, so it looks like we're stuck with Berroa for now.

Second Base:

Mark Grudzielanek has done a nice job at second base, particularly defensively. He might be an option for next year, but the future depends on Esteban German or Jeff Keppinger. In limited opportunities, German has shown excellent on-base skills and great speed on the basepaths. To become an everyday second basemen, German will have to improve his defense. Hopefully Buddy Bell's tenure as manager ends quickly and German gets a chance to play everyday at second next year. I don't know much about Jeff Keppinger, but Moore says he will compete for the second base job as well.

Catcher:

The catching position remains a problem in the organization as it has been for about 10 years. John Buck hasn’t shown too many signs of improving offensively behind the plate. He’s shown some power, enough to hit 10-15 HRs a year and probably bring his OPS into the .700-.750 range. He is pretty average throwing out runners and probably above-average behind the plate. The Royals don’t have any options to replace him. The Royals’ closest prospects Paul Phillips and Matt Tupman project as backups at best.

Organizational Needs Up the Middle: The Royals need to address the shortstop problem and find a long-term replacement for Berroa in the next year or two. John Buck is an acceptable option behind the plate if he improves offensively. Catcher’s bats can be slow to develop, so it’s best to be patient with Buck. Unlike Berroa, he does contribute defensively at an important position.

Offseason Moves: The Royals will have to decide whether or not they are comfortable with giving German and Keppinger the everyday second base job. If not, Grudzielanek would be a likely candidate to return. The Royals should also try to trade for a shortstop prospect close to the majors, perhaps packaging Lubanski or Maier in the deal.

Organizational Outlook: Corner Infield/Outfield

2006-08-06T21:25:00.000-04:00

The next two posts will look at the Royals' organizational depth chart and look at what the team will look like by 2008-2009. This post will focus on the Royals' position players. The Royals' greatest organizational strength is at the corner positions, where they have a strong group of power bats approaching the majors. Dayton Moore's plans include power at the corners and speed up the middle. The Royals should have plenty of power bats at the corner positions by 2008-2009. The Royals have some speed up the middle, but those players might not be more than part-time players.

The Royals have some important questions to answer at the corner spots. The Royals depth chart has a lot of overlap at the corners, so it's very difficult to project what position the organization's corner infielders and outfielders will eventually play. The Royals have two excellent third basemen, but one will have to be moved to first base or the outfield. Justin Huber and Billy Butler are currently playing outfield in the minors, but both are defensive liabilities there and may have to move to first base/DH. Mitch Maier and Chris Lubanski project as much better defenders, but have much weaker bats. The Royals also already have a solid corner outfielder in David DeJesus, but he could be moved back to centerfield.

The best way to look at the corner positions is to look at all of the potential players in general for the 4 corner positions and the DH spot. If you consider Gordon, Teahen, and DeJesus as locks for future positions, then the Royals have the following players competing for the the remaining two or three corner spots (depending on if DeJesus moves back to CF):

Billy Butler, Ryan Shealy, Justin Huber, Chris Lubanski, Mitch Maier

Butler, Shealy, and Huber project as above-average to All-Star corner bats and two of them will likely reach those projections. Lubanski and Maier will provide some insurance in case more than one of those players doesn't pan out or they may become trade bait.

Organizational Needs at the Corners: The Royals are in a very good position at the corner spots by 2008. The Royals might need a stopgap outfielder or 1B/DH for next year. Sanders and Sweeney will likely be those stopgap players because of their expensive contracts.

Offseason Moves: The Royals will try to move Sanders and Sweeney and perhaps resign Mientkiewicz or another stopgap first basemen or outfielder. Lubanski or Maier might be added to sweeten a deal.

Prospect List Update (16-25)

2006-08-05T12:36:00.000-04:00

16. Blake Johnson 21/RHP:

Johnson has pretty average stuff with some potential for improvement. His best asset is his command, averaging just 1.5 walks per 9 innings. Combined with a respectable strikeout rate and pretty low HR allowed rate, his defense-independent stats are very good. Right now, he projects as a back rotation guy, but that could change if his velocity improves.

High A 4-5 4.92 ERA 106 IP 121 Hits 11 HRs 19 BBs 73 SOs
High A 1-0 1.50 ERA 6 IP 7 Hits 0 HRs 0 BBs 7 SOs

17. Ryan Braun 26/RHP

Braun has had a very good recovery from his injury last season. He has a great fastball that can reach 98 mph and a solid slider to complement it. Braun is pretty old for a prospect, but he was injured last season and was drafted as a college senior. So, he's moved fairly quickly. He projects as a solid setup man if he can command his stuff well.

AA 1-6 2.21 ERA 40.2 IP 10 Saves 30 Hits 2 HRs 16 BBs 58 SOs
AAA 0-1 9.2 IP 2 Saves 12 Hits 0 HRs 3 BBs 10 SOs

18. Matt Kniginyzky 23/RHP:

The Canadian righty has made a very good transition from relieving to starting. His fastball sits in the low 90s and can reach 94 mph. He also has a good curveball and a developing changeup.

Low A 8-3 3.22 ERA 109 IP 100 Hits 11 HRs 31 BBs 89 SOs

19. Carlos Rosa 21/RHP:

Rosa has had a very good comeback season, performing very well at Burlington. His fastball was reaching 94 mph and his velocity is reportedly back. He has a good curve and change, so he has the repertoire for starting.

Low A 7-6 2.54 ERA 120.2 IP 101 Hits 4 HRs 48 BBs 86 SOs

20. Angel Sanchez 22/SS:

Many Royals fans hope that Sanchez will eventually unseat Berroa. However, that probably won't be until Berroa's contract ends. Sanchez's defense still needs a lot of work and he hasn't shown much power yet. Nonetheless, his plate discipline is much better than Berroa's, so there is some hope for him.

AA 419 ABs .284/.343/.363 19 2Bs 4 HRs 43 RBIs 34 BBs 50 SOs

21. Julio Pimentel 20/RHP

Pimentel struggled at the Dodger's high A club. He's lack of command and hittability has led to a WHIP of 1.76. Pimentel has a live arm with a mid-90s fastball. The rest of his repertoire is pretty unpolished still, but he has the potential for two or three plus pitches. He projects as a solid reliever unless his secondary stuff improves.

High A 3-8 5.69 ERA 74.1 IP 85 Hits 4 HRs 45 BBs 77 SOs

22. Danny Christensen 22/LHP

Christensen has had a great comeback from his injury two seasons ago. He has a very good K/BB ratio. He's given up a lot of hits and home runs, but that may be High Desert related. He has an outstanding curveball, so at the very least he should be a good lefty setup man.

High A 2-6 5.50 ERA 124.1 IP 143 Hits 19 HRs 41 BBs 124 SOs

23. Joseph Dickerson 19/CF:

Dickerson has made a successful transition to advanced Rookie Ball and has started to show some power of late. He's shown good contact skills during his first two professional seasons and he's best known for his defensive abilities.

Pio 123 ABs .341/.383/.585 9 2Bs 5 HRs 21 RBIs 7 BBs 21 SOs

24. Chris McConnell 20/SS:

His offensive struggles at Burlington sent him back to the pioneer league, but it hasn't helped him much. McConnell still has some projectable skills, even though his development hasn't been as fast as expected.

Pio 61 ABs .279/.333/.361 1 2B 0 HRs 11 RBIs 4 BBs 13 SOs
Low A 239 ABs .172/.254/.201 4 2Bs 1 HR 19 RBIs 17 BBs 47 SOs

25. Jason Godin 21/RHP:

The Royals' fifth-round pick has had a good debut in the Pioneer League. He's shown good command and the ability to rack up strikeouts, something he did in college as well as Justin Verlander, the Tigers' new ace.

Pio 0-0 2.70 ERA 16.2 IP 19 Hits 2 HRs 4 BBs 15 SOs

Updated Prospect List (1-15)

2006-08-04T00:49:00.000-04:00

Dayton Moore's trades have significantly strengthened the Royals' farm system and added a quality group of arms to the low minors. There's finally some pitching depth the Royals' farm system which lacked pitching depth for a decade now. The Royals have a nice core of offensive players, so the Royals have the makings of a complete team in the near future. The Royals still have to improve their ability to develop pitching talent, as that remains a major problem in the organization that has yet to be addressed. Adding more pitching prospects to the farm system is one way to try and overcome the inefficiencies of the Royals' pitching development schemes. Moore says pitchers will spend more time at AAA and won't be rushed to the majors, so that should help the Royals develop young pitching. Moore is taking the organization in the right direction and the improvements to the farm system throughout his short tenure are pretty impressive. The addition of Hochevar spared the 2006 draft from being a disaster and added another impact player to the farm system.

1. Alex Gordon 22/3B: Gordon has become one of the top two or three prospects in the minors. His July numbers have been absolutely ridiculous, boosting his OPS to .963 and giving him 19 HRs overall. Gordon was recently on Baseball America's Prospect Hot Sheet and they said he was putting himself in consideration to be their No. 1 minor-league prospect next year. Gordon has no weakness and should be an All-Star third basemen in a couple of years. His recent surge will likely earn him a promotion and he could be on the Opening Day roster next year. He's just that good.

AA 371 ABs .313/.413/.553 30 2Bs 19 HRs 65 RBIs 55 BBs 79 SOs 20 SBs 3 CS

2. Billy Butler 20/OF: Butler hasn't shown as much power this year as he did in his previous two seasons. However, he has still hit 41 extra base hits, including 12 HRs. He's still very young, so he will get stronger physically and could eventually develop into one of the best power hitters in the game. He'll likely spend the rest of the year at AA and then most of next year at AAA. His defense has shown noticeable improvement this season, so given some extra development time it may become passable in the outfield.

AA 419 ABs .317/.374/.473 29 2Bs 12 HRs 78 RBIs 36 BBs 61 SOs

3. Luke Hochevar 22/RHP: Hochevar has sat out most of two minor league seasons holding out. Hochevar has 4 above-average pitches and a fastball that sits in the mid-90s and can reach 98 mph. He has the stuff to be a future No. 1 starter. He has been doing some conditioning on the side, so he should be in shape to head to Burlington fairly quickly. If all goes well, he should pitch in the Arizona Fall League and have a chance to reach the majors for good by 2008.

4. Ryan Shealy 27/1B:

Shealy has displayed very good power throughout his minor league career, hitting 25+ HRs in the past two seasons and continuing that pace this season. Shealy has been productive in his major league debut, hitting .320/.370/.470 in his first 100 ABs. Shealy is already 27, so he's pretty old for a prospect. Nonetheless, he should supply the power needed for a first basemen. His defense, however, is pretty shaky at first.

AAA 222 ABs .284/.351/.568 16 2Bs 15 HRs 55 RBIs 20 BBs 34 SOs

5. Justin Huber 24/1B:

Most Royals fans seem to have soured on Huber, but he's consistently put up very good numbers. His frequent injuries have set him back and he hasn't made enough progress defensively at first base. If he can play a serviceable left field, that might be his best ticket to the majors. He probably won't hit more than 20 HRs a year in the majors, but his on-base skills will make him a solid player at a corner position.

AAA 245 ABs .282/.358/.498 13 2Bs 12 HRs 27 RBIs 26 BBs 64 SOs

6. Tyler Lumsden 23/LHP:

Lumsden possesses two very good pitches, a mid-90s fastball and a slider. His command has shown improvements this season. Lumsden projects as a mid-rotation starter and could be in the Royals' rotation by 2007.

AA 9-4 2.69 ERA 123 2/3 IP 114 Hits 9 HRs 40 BBs 72 SOs
AA (Wichita) 3.00 ERA 6 IP 4 Hits 1 HR 3 BBs 6 SOs

7. Chris Lubanski 21/LF:

Lubanski has fallen from the #4 prospect to #7 not because his stock has fallen, but because the farm system has become much stronger. Lubanski has done very well for a 21 year old and has recovered nicely from a slow start. Lubanski has drawn 52 walks, giving him a good .358 on-base percentage. Lubanski still has pretty good speed, even though he isn't much of a base stealer. He doesn't have a very good arm, so he'll be in left or center field.

AA 393 ABs .275/.358/.476 27 2Bs 12 HRs 59 RBIs 52 BBs 87 SOs

8. Erik Cordier 20/RHP:

Erik Cordier's stock has risen incredibly throughout this season. Last season, he had some lingering leg injuries that kept him from pitching. Fortunately, he hasn't had any injuries to his great young arm. Cordier's fastball reaches 98 mph and his changeup and curve are excellent complementary pitches, giving him 3 potential plus pitches at the big-league level. He has the potential to be a frontline starter down the road and could move quickly through the Royals' farm system.

(Pio) 1-0 3.38 ERA 16 IP 11 Hits 0 HRs 3 BBs 19 SOs
Low A 1-1 0.95 ERA 19 IP 11 Hits 0 HRs 8 BBs 11 SOs

9. Billy Buckner 23/RHP:

Buckner finally mastered High Desert this season, putting together a good 3.90 ERA in 90 innings. However, he has struggled at Wichita. His strikeout numbers are very good, averaging almost one strikeout per inning. His command needs a lot of work, as he's walking about 5 batters per 9 innings. Buckner has an outstanding curveball and a good fastball. He projects as a No. 4 or 5 starter.

High A 7-1 3.90 ERA 90 IP 92 Hits 6 HRs 47 BBs 85 SOs
AA 2-1 6.96 ERA 32.1 IP 39 Hits 4 HRs 18 BBs 30 SOs

10. Jeff Bianchi 19/SS:

Bianchi has been extremely impressive when he's been healthy. He is dominating the Arizona Rookie League again, with a ridiculous 1.204 OPS. Unfortunately, his back injury continues to linger and he's been out for several weeks now and may need back surgery. Bianchi has the talent to be a 20/20 player, but he's going to have to overcome his injury problems.

AZL 42 ABs 4 2Bs 2 HRs 6 RBIs .429/.537/.667

11. Chris Nicoll 22/RHP:

Nicoll is putting together a solid season at Burlington. His command has been very good, averaging 2.5 walks per 9 innings. He's also averaging one strikeout per inning. Nicoll has a solid average repertoire and might add some velocity before reaching the majors. Right now, his projection is similar to Buckner's as a back of the rotation guy, the Royals' house speciality.

Low A 4-7 2.82 ERA 118 IP 92 Hits 12 HRs 33 BBs 118 SOs

12. Mitch Maier 24/OF:

Mitch Maier remains one of the best bets in the farm system to become a major-league players. He's an excellent defensive outfielder and one of the few outfielders in the organization with enough arm strength and foot speed to play rightfield. He's shown improved power this season, but will probably need to show more to become an everyday player. His defensive abilities and solid bat should make him at least a very good fourth outfielder.

AA 416 ABs .293/.343/.464 23 2Bs 12 HRs 68 RBIs 29 BBs 75 SOs

13. Daniel Cortes 19/RHP:

Cortes is having a pretty good season, particularly for a 19-year-old. He has a good sinker and slider combo, with a fastball that can reach the mid-90s. His K/BB ratio above 2 and low HR totals are promising. Cortes still has some projection remaining, but could eventually emerge as a mid-rotation starter.

Low A 3-9 4.01 107.2 IP 109 Hits 6 HRs 38 BBs 96 SOs

14. Brent Fisher 18/LHP:

Fisher has dominated the Arizona Rookie League for a second season in a row. Why he hasn't earned a promotion is a mystery. He has an outstanding K/BB of 5.4 and hasn't allowed many hits or HRs. He's a protypical lefty with a sinking fastball and a curve and neither pitch projects to be overwhelming.

AZL 1-1 2.18 ERA 41.1 IP 21 Hits 2 HRs 10 BBs 54 SOs

15. Luis Cota 20/RHP:

Cota has struggled at High Desert after a good season at Burlington last year. He's pitched better than his 7.10 ERA indicates. His K/BB ratio is pretty solid, although his command still needs some work. He needs to work on his secondary stuff, but his great arm gives him at least mid-rotation potential.

High A 4-10 7.10 ERA 104 IP 124 Hits 13 HRs 49 BBs 100 SOs

Royals Sign Hochevar

2006-08-03T12:49:00.000-04:00

The Royals announced this morning that they have signed their top pick Luke Hochevar. After hearing nothing about the negotiations for the couple of weeks, this comes as a very pleasant surprise. It appeared as though Hochevar wasn't going to sign anytime soon, if at all. But, the Royals now have Hochevar signed to a 4-year major league contract. That means Hochevar will have to be on the 40-man roster. He will be optioned to the minors, most likely to Burlington and then move up to High Desert. Considering he pitched well against a High A/AA level caliber independent league, he should move pretty quickly. If all goes well, perhaps he'll get a chance to pitch in the Arizona Fall League. After sitting out most of two seasons, he'll need all the innings he can get.

Even though I don't really like giving an amateur player a major-league contract, I'm pretty pleased with the deal. The Royals certainly took a gamble by selecting a Boras client who had already held out for one season. But, the Royals were able to sign one of the top two pitching talents available and a potential ace. Hochevar strengthens the farm system considerably, which is lightyears ahead of where it was a few months ago.

The mechanics of Hochevar's contract don't have any implications on service time as far as I'm aware. As long as he is in the minors, he won't accrue service time, which determines when he becomes a free agent. I believe the 4-year contract simply means he gets paid whatever they agreed to over the next 4 years and he is still under the Royals control until he has 6 years of major league service time. He has three option years, so Hochevar has until the end of 2008 to reach the majors.

This is great news for Royals fans, as the Royals added a potentially great arm to their farm system who should be ready on the same timetable as the organization's premier offensive talent. Also, this shows that the Royals aren't afraid to deal with Scott Boras. Finally, the past two drafts have shown that the Royals will go after the best player available in the draft and aren't afraid to spend the $4-5 million required to sign the best player. It appears the Royals are finally headed in the right direction. As promised, I will have the updated prospect list shortly with our newest addition, Luke Hochevar.

Final July Trades

2006-08-02T01:30:00.000-04:00

Royals' GM Dayton Moore finished off the July trading frenzy with two more deals on Monday. The Royals traded Jeremy Affeldt and Denny Bautista to Colorado for first basemen Ryan Shealy and pitcher Scott Dohmann. In a smaller deal, the Royals traded Matt Stairs to the Rangers for RHP Jose Diaz.

First basemen Ryan Shealy had been coveted by Dayton Moore and many Royals fans. Shealy has put up good numbers with 15 HRs in 222 ABs and a .284/.351/.568 line overall. Shealy is turning 27 this month, so he's no youngster. In 2005, Shealy had 26 homers hit .328 at AAA. In 2004, he had 29 homers and hit .318 at AA. He was on pace for another 25-30 HR season, so he's shown steady power throughout his career. He's been blocked by Todd Helton in Colorado, so he hasn't seen much big league action. He's made the most of his limited opportunities, hitting .320/.398/.470 in his first 100 major league at-bats. So, hopefully that's a sign of things to come.

His right-handed bat adds to the surplus of righties at the 1B and DH position with Sweeney, Huber, and Butler projected to hold those spots down next year and beyond. Shealy will join the big league club and get a significant number of at-bats for the rest of the season. With Huber, Shealy, and Butler, the Royals should have enough good bats to fill out the 1B and DH positions.

Scott Dohmann isn't young either. The 28-year-old righty has a 6.20 ERA in 24 2/3 innings with 15 walks and 22 strikeouts. Dohmann is averaging over 1 strikeout per inning throughout his career, but the walks and home runs have hurt him. He throws 92-94 mph and has a good slider, so he's a good candidate for a setup role if he can improve his command. I hope Moore saw something in Dohmann, because you usually don't trade for 28-year-old relievers who haven't figured out how to throw strikes.

Jose Diaz will also add some bullpen depth. Diaz has pitched very well of late and has struck out 75 in the last 62 2/3 innings.

The Shealy deal looks alright to me. The Royals have a pretty good offensive core already developing and this solidifies the 1B/DH position even further. Dohmann doesn't have much upside, but might be a useful middle reliever. He's basically a throw-in. Denny Bautista has a lot of upside, but for every 100 Bautistas, 15 will become good setup men and 5 will become frontline starters. Like Affeldt, I'm convinced Bautista wouldn't ever become anything in a Royals' uniform. Both needed a change of scene badly.

In the next few days, I'll redo the Royals' top prospect list. The Royals' pitching depth has improved remarkably over the season with the emergence of the Burlington Bees' stout rotation and Moore's moves in July.

Moore Grabs 4 Pitchers for Dessens and Graffanino

2006-07-26T17:16:00.000-04:00

Moore continues to deal away the Royals' expendable parts for more young pitching and a veteran starter. Moore traded Elmer Dessens to the Dodgers for Odalis Perez and minor league pitchers Blake Johnson and Julio Pimentel. The Dodgers are reported picking up $8 million of Perez's salary as well as his signing bonus and part of his buyout. The Royals are on the hook for about $3-4 million in salary and part of the buyout for roughly a year and a half of Perez's services. The Royals also traded Tony Graffanino to the Brewers for Jorge De La Rosa.

Odalis Perez will join the Royals' rotation, which will become a six-man rotation until Perez builds up his endurance. Perez has struggled as a starter this season, with a 8.53 ERA in 8 starts and allowing almost two hits an inning. He's pitched much better as a reliever, with a 3.80 ERA in 21 IP with 12 strikeouts to just 2 walks. So, if he fails as a starter, it seems he should be able to duplicate what Elmer Dessens did in the pen. If he succeeds, the Royals get a solid #2/#3 starter. Perez's career numbers are very solid, with a career 4.24 ERA and a very good 2.60 K/BB ratio. His career 1.27WHIP and 6.39 k/9 are solid as well. For $3 million, it's a worthwhile investment to see if Perez can revert back to his previous form. From 2002 to 2005, Perez had two ace quality seasons and two league-average seasons. A change of scene may do Perez some good, as he seemed to be unhappy with his situation in LA. I wouldn't be unhappy with a Perez for Dessens straight-up trade, so the prospects added to the deal make it all the better.

Moore was able to grab two young pitchers in the deal as well. Blake Johnson is a 21-year-old righty who had a 4.92 ERA and a 73/19 K/BB ratio in 106 IP at High A. He's given up a lot of hits (121), but that may be related to the defense behind him. The two previous seasons, he allowed 156 hits in 157 innings. Johnson has pretty average stuff with a fastball in the low 90s and a changeup and good curve to complement it. He has some upside, although probably not much more than a mid-rotation starter. He's most similar to Chris Nicoll in the Royals' organization.

Julio Pimentel also pitched for the Dodgers high A team. Pimentel is a 20 year old with a good power arm, reaching the mid-90s. Pimentel projects more as a reliever because his changeup and breaking stuff isn't very reliable. Pimental has struggled this season. He's walked 17 in 31 innings of relief, so moving him to the bullpen hasn't seemed to help much. He draws a lot of similarities to Luis Cota, who has also struggled at High A as a 20-year-old.

In a smaller deal, Moore acquired lefty Jorge De La Rosa. De La Rosa has great stuff, but has never been able to command it in the major leagues. He's only 25 years old and has a high ceiling if he can improve his command. His command in the minors was pretty good, with a 2.1 K/BB ratio. He's had some nagging injury issues that he must overcome as well. He is most similar to a left-handed Denny Bautista, as he's been traded several times and hasn't put together success at the big league level because of injury problems and command issues.

Overall, Moore has done a great job in the past two days of rebuilding the Royals' pitching depth without giving up much of anything. Lumsden, Cortes, Johnson, Pimentel, and De La Rosa are all still young and project as mid-rotation starters or relievers. Coupled with the progress of Buckner, Nicoll, Christensen, Kniginyzky, Rosa, and Cordier in the low minors, the Royals have some good pitching depth finally in the low minors.

Royals Send MacDougal to the South Side

2006-07-24T17:18:00.000-04:00

The Royals just completed a trade sending closer Mike MacDougal to the White Sox for LHP Tyler Lumsden and RHP Daniel Cortes. Lumsden is a 23-year-old, 6'4", 200-pound lefty. Tyler Lumsden was pitching for the White Sox AA team and is having a solid season. Lumsden has a 2.69 ERA in 123 2/3 IP with 40 walks and 72 strikeouts. His WHIP of 1.25 isn't bad and he's allowed only 9 HRs. Lumsden's fastball and slider are his main two pitches. Both have been rated as the top fastball and slider in the White Sox organization during the past two years. Lumsden's fastball sits in the low 90s but can reach the mid 90s. The key for Lumsden has been throwing strikes and he has shown good command at AA, averaging less than 3 walks per 9 innings. Lumsden will head to AA Wichita.

The second pitcher in the deal is Daniel Cortes. The 19-year-old righty is a big pitcher, measuring 6'5" and 205 lbs. Cortes has pitched for the White Sox low A club and done a good job. Cortes has a 4.01 ERA and 38 BBs to 96 K's in 107 2/3 IP. He's allowed just 6 HRs as well and has pitched much better as the season progressed. Cortes is mainly a sinker, slider pitcher, probably closest to a right-handed version of Brent Fisher. Cortes will surrogate the Burlington Bees' strong rotation of Cordier, Rosa, Nicoll, and Kniginyzky.

Overall, it looks like a good trade to me. The Royals badly need starting pitching depth and don't really need a closer at the moment. MacDougal's inconsistency and lengthy trips to the disabled list are good reasons to move him. I'm surprised Dayton Moore got as much for MacDougal as he did since MacDougal just got off the disabled list. Lumsden and Cortes' stock has risen with their good performances this season. Both have shown improved control this year and had success at a higher level. My only concern is putting Burgos in the closer role with no alternative if he struggles. Otherwise, it looks like a good deal for the Royals.

AL Central: Detroit Tigers

2006-07-17T20:21:00.000-04:00

The AL Central is the strongest division in baseball with the two best teams in baseball. I will attempt to answer these two questions:

1. How long can we expect the division to remain extremely difficult?
2. How do the Royals matchup talentwise and what can they do to improve?

I will start with the Tigers. Here's a look at the core players the Tigers will be building around in the next few years. Note, the number in parathesis is the year the player becomes a free agent.

The Tigers have a very impressive collection of starting pitchers in their system. Justin Verlander (2012) is a Cy Young contender in his rookie campaign. Jeremy Bonderman (2009) has become a #1 starter with a good fastball and slider combination. Mike Maroth (2009) and Nate Robertson (2010) are solid #2/#3 types and should fill out the rest of the Tigers' rotation. The Tigers signed veteran Kenny Rogers through 2007. By the end of 2007, the Tigers' two other prized pitching prospects will be ready to move into the rotation. Humberto Sanchez pitched great in the Futures game and has the stuff to be another frontline starter. 2006 Draftee Andrew Miller, arguably the top talent in the draft, also has frontline starter potential and could move quickly into the Tigers' rotation. Overall, the Tigers' rotation has an abundance of power arms and 4 starters with #1 stuff and two already performing at that level. The Tigers' bullpen has one of the best ERA's in baseball and has some hard throwers. However, with the exception of Zumaya, none of the bullpen arms are likely to be excellent long-term relievers. Nonetheless, the group of relievers (Grilli, Rodney, Spurling, Colon) give the Tigers a group of cheap, relatively young relievers through the end of the decade.

The Tigers also have a strong offensive core to complement their pitching. The Tigers' offense isn't built around one player, rather 7 different players with .800+ OPSs. Most of the Tigers offensive core is within two years of 30 years ago, so most are in their prime. A few years from now, the Tigers' offense will probably start to decline. However, the Tigers are getting very good production out of centerfielder Curtis Granderson (2012) and Chris Shelton (2011). Marcus Thames is having a breakout season, leading the Tigers with 19 HRs and a 1.027 OPS. Although not particularly young, Thames is under their control until 2011. Cameron Maybin, the Tigers' 2005 first-round selection, has impressed scouts in his debut. He's a potential 5-tool outfielder who played in the Futures game. So, the Tigers have some younger bats who should help offset the decline of the older core players.

Outlook: The Tigers have made one of the most impressive turnarounds in recent baseball times. The Tigers' farm system which was once overlooked because of poor depth has paid off great yields thanks to high draft positions. The Tigers' excellent rotation looks to be one of the best in baseball for the next few years. The Tigers haven't had any problems putting together a good offense and have most of their core players under their control for the next few years. The Tigers aren't afraid to compete for top-tier free agents so they should be able to fill any major holes. Overall, the Tigers look like the most complete team in the division and may have the best pitching staff in baseball for the next few years.

Up next: Chicago White Sox