The Daily Lancer

First Spring Training Games

2007-03-04T15:35:00.000-05:00

Breaking News: Mark Grudzielanek will undergo knee surgery on Monday. There is no timetable for his return, but it is certainly weakens the Royals' defense up the middle until he returns. German will likely become the regular second basemen until he returns. German had an outstanding season for the Royals last year, hitting .326/.422/.459. So, he may be an upgrade offensively over Grudzielanek.

Spring Training games are finally underway and we've gotten a look at some of the Royals' new acquistions.

Game 1: Brian Bannister started for the Royals, pitching very well. Bannister went 2 innings, allowing 0 runs and throwing just 17 pitches (14 strikes). Bannister could be a nice find for the Royals. At the very least, it'll be nice to have someone in the rotation who can throw strikes. Joakim Soria's pitched two scoreless innings. A very good start for the Royals' young pitchers. The other big story was Billy Butler, who hit a 2-run single to put the Royals ahead 6-4. The Royals lost 7-6.

Game 2: Meche pitched well in his Royals' debut, pitching 3 scoreless innings and allowing just 2 hits. Gobble ended up with the victory, even though he allowed 2 runs in 2 innings. Butler continues to hit extremely well. He's 4 for 7 with a double and 2 RBIs so far. Shealy went 1 for 3 with a homerun and 3 RBIs. Huber later took over at first, going 0 for 1. Gordon went 0 for 4, making him 0 for 6 so far.

Game 3: Teahen and Buck homered for the Royals. Huber continues to play 1B, but struggled at the plate going 0 for 3. Perez pitched horribly, going 1 1/3 innings and allowing 4 runs. Perez was worth a shot, but I hope the Royals don't keep him around too long if he doesn't pitch better.

"B" game: Hochevar pitched in Friday's "B" game, throwing 2 scoreless innings. Rosa also pitched a scoreless inning and Buddy Bell was impressed with his stuff.

Sunday's game so far: Luke Hudson had a pretty good start for the Royals, going 3 innings and allowing just 1 run. Zack Greinke has pitched a scoreless innings so far. Alex Gordon got his first hit of the season, the only hit through the fourth inning.

Positives so far: The young players are doing very well. Butler, Shealy, Teahen and Buck have provided most of the Royals' offense. The Royals' young offensive talent is finally starting to show, which should make this season more exciting to watch.

Negatives so far: Perez looks like the Perez from 2006. Also, losing Grudz for an extended period of time is a blow to our defense up the middle, which already has a giant hole at shortstop.

Minor League News: Jeff Bianchi is healthy again. He will likely head to extended spring training and move to Burlington. The Royals' article also says he's throwing from the shortstop position (maybe insinuating a move to short?). Erik Cordier, who had a brillant season until getting hurt, will not pitch until the fall instructional leagues. Cordier may have the most upside of any Royals' pitcher next to Hochevar.

College Prospect Update: James Simmons

2007-03-03T00:53:00.000-05:00

I watched the University of Oklahoma play UC Riverside this afternoon and got a first-hand look at RHP James Simmons. Several scouts were on hand (including a Royals' scout) to watch Simmons and Sooner starter Stephen Porlier (more on him in another post). Here's a brief bio of James Simmons:

Simmons is a junior at UC Riverside. He is a 6'4", 215 lbs right-handed pitcher. Last season, he led the team with a 2.96 ERA and led the team with 94 strikeouts in 109 1/3 innings. Simmons pitched in the Cape Cod League last summer and had a 1.18 ERA in 53 innings. Baseball America listed him as the eighth-best prospect in the Cape Cod League.

Projected Draft Position:
Simmons is currently listed on Baseball America's Top 100 collegiate prospects for the 2007 draft. Brewerfan.net currently has Simmons listed as the #59 prospect in the country, which would make him an early to mid second round. If he continues performing well, he probably won't be around when the Royals make their selection with the #65 overall pick in the 2nd round. But, he's worth keeping an eye on.

2007 Stats:

4-1 2.38 ERA 34 IP 38 SOs 8 BBs .185 BAA

Simmons is off to a good start for 2007. Simmons is a candidate for the Roger Clemens' Award for the top collegiate pitcher. Before Simmon's start today, he was 4-0 with a 0.62 ERA. However, he struggled against the Sooner offense, allowing 9 hits on 7 runs in 5 innings.

Scouting Report: Simmons strongest asset is his control, which was fairly absent today. In addition to his two walks, Simmons hit two batters today. So, his performance today probably isn't the best for evaluating him. Simmons displayed an average (cut) fastball sitting at 89-90 mph. His second main pitch was his changeup, which wasn't very effective in keeping the Sooner hitters off-balance.

Simmons has a very high leg kick (see photo at start of post), but does a very good job of maintaining balance over his right leg during his delivery. He has a very clean, repeatable delivery overall and fields his position well.

Here's a short video clip of Simmons: Simmons Video

Summary: Simmons has pretty average stuff, but has plus command of his repertoire. He has a projectable frame at 6'4", 215 lbs, so he may end up throwing harder than 90 mph. If he's available when the Royals make their second-round selection, he would be a good pickup.

Coming up: Wichita State Prospects

Coming Soon!

2007-03-01T02:36:00.000-05:00

I will have an in-depth look at 3 of Baseball America's top 100 college draft prospects. This will be the beginning of draft coverage from the Daily Lancer featuring college player previews with photos and maybe some videos.

Beginning to Look toward the Draft

2007-02-09T22:56:00.000-05:00

2007 draft

We are 4 months away from the 2007 draft—most of the big college programs get started this weekend. We hope to provide coverage leading up to the draft—covering players that the Royals might be interested in.

There are some pretty big changes to this year’s draft. First there is an August 15th deadline to sign draftees—that means no more long holdouts—clubs and draftees have to get a deal done. As added leverage for clubs, if a club does not sign a player from the first couple rounds, the club is given a compensation pick next year right after the lost pick. (i.e. if the Royals failed to sign their top pick—the #2 overall—they would get the #3 overall pick in 2008). There are no more draft and follows—drafting a HS player who then goes to JC where he can be signed after he season ends and before the next draft begins. Lastly, due to changes in the way free agent compensation works, the Royals after the #2 overall pick won’t pick again until around pick 64.

The draft will bring to conclusion Dayton Moore’s 1st year as GM. It will be interesting to see if our draft strategy changes much. Deric Ladnier has a Braves background-so perhaps he has already brought many of those changes with him. I will especially be watching to see if the Royals new emphasis on pitchers with curveballs (as opposed to sliders) affects who we draft. That may have been one of the reasons that the Royals took Hochevar over Miller in 2006. Hochevar has a good curve—Miller is known for his slider.

The 2007 draft will hopefully be the last time the Royals have a top 5 (or even top 10) pick for a long time. It will be very tempting to take a college talent who is closer to the big leagues—but this year’s draft class has excellent depth. While there are definite front runners for the top couple of picks, there are plenty of other players who could zoom up the charts in the next few months. Here are some of the best known players.

Baseball America has excellent draft coverage, but you have to pay for most of it.

Brewerfan has excellent free coverage—I encourage you to check them out:

http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewDraftArchive.do?draftId=5

Here are my rankings as we head into the amateur season:
College:

1. David Price
Price has very good stuff—FB, SL, CH and good control. His numbers were better than his ERA indicated last year at Vandy. He pitched great for Team USA last summer—5-1 .20 ERA, 44ip, 7W, 61K. If he pitches well in the spring, he probably becomes a Devil Ray. I would love to have him—but wonder how dogmatic the Royals are about pitchers that that feature a slider.

2. Matt Wieters
If Price is #1, Wieters is #1a. A switch hitting catcher who also closes for Georgia Tech. He has power and patience. He as a rocket arm (he is also a very talented pitcher). Being 6-5 there are questions about whether he can stay behind the plate. His offense doesn’t seem quite as advanced as Alex Gordon’s but Wieters plays a premium defensive position. He has apparantly signed with Scott Boras--which may make things interesting (as has Brackman). The question is: if he has to move to 1st base, is he still worth the #2 pick?

3. Andrew Brackman
Brackman is 7 feet tall. Brackman throws easily in the mid to upper 90’s. That will get you noticed. He is supposedly more polished than most really tall pitchers. He will need to back it up this year with some good numbers—particularly K/BB ratio. More risk than your typical college player.

4. Joe Savery
Savery has had some injury issues but he has a good FB/CB combo. On the downside, the recent history of Rice pitchers, coupled with the injuries he’s already had, does not inspire confidence that he will develop.

5. Nick Schmidt
Schmidt posted a dominant year last year in the SEC (beating out Price for SEC Pitcher of the Year). He has three quality pitches--fastball, slider, change. However, he had a less than inspiring summer that left many questions as we head into this college season. He has to prove the doubters.

We'll cover the High Schoolers next time...

Royals Ink Gobble and Brown

2007-01-17T11:31:00.000-05:00

The Royals avoided arbitration with Emil Brown and Jimmy Gobble, signing both to 1-year contracts. Gobble signed for $712,500. Gobble had a good year in the pen last year, striking out 80 in 84 innings. Certainly a good sign for a pitcher who used to strike out one batter every 3 innings. Gobble's stuff is probably best suited for the bullpen, especially since his fastball can reach 94 mph more regularly. He can also spot start and did a decent job last year (5.14 ERA as starter).

The Royals signed Emil Brown to a one-year, $3.4 million deal. Brown has been one of the Royals' most productive bats over the past two seasons, leading the team in RBI's over that period. With Brown and Sanders under contract, the Royals will have plenty of time to let Teahen transition to the outfield and give Gordon as much time as needed in the minors.

The Royals also signed Alex Gonzalez to a minor-league contract. He was downright awful for the Devil Rays last year, hitting .111/.158/.111 in 36 ABs. His career line of .243/.302/.391 isn't anything to brag about, but he is a good backup shortstop.

The Royals are still negotiating with Todd Wellemeyer. Wellemeyer has good stuff, but his even K/BB ratio is certainly a concern for next year. He may have trouble repeating a pretty good season last year if he can't improve his command. Nonetheless, he's a cheap, young reliever, so he's worth re-signing.

Minor League Chat

2007-01-10T01:37:00.000-05:00

meteorologistdave: The Royals seem to have set the main positions in the roster for 2007. The Royals could still use another veteran starter or reliever to add some depth. But, for the most part, the 2007 Royals are ready to go. And of course, if someone will take Angel Berroa, then by all means take him!

garoyal23: What I'd like to see the Royals do between now and Opening Day is to trade from our position of strength (outfielders) to land some more pitching depth. It doesn't matter to me if that depth is at the major league level or a legit minor leaguer. We just need depth. Like you say, Angel Berroa is a huge question mark. His numbers have been declining every year, but his defense seems to be improving. I'm comfortable giving him another year to see what happens with him. If he declines for the 4th straight year, then cut your losses. However, if he manages a .270 average with an OPS of around .670 to .700, then that will satisfy me. That being said, I'd like to see Moore sign a veteran middle infielder that could possible slide into the SS role if Berroa fails. Someone to push him.

meteorologistdave: Using their outfield depth to acquire more pitching or a shortstop would be a welcome move. Speaking of the Royals' tremendous depth at the corners, let's get started with Alex Gordon. If you put Gordon in the lineup now, he's probably going to be the best hitter in the lineup, even as a rookie. However, that could be detrimental to his development. I think he could use at least a couple months at AAA before he becomes the Royals' everyday third basemen.

garoyal23: I haven't seen anything that makes me think that Gordon will be a liability at third base defensively. I am leaning toward having him start in out in KC in 2007. That makes the lineup stronger instantly. I'm not sure where he'd start out in the lineup (I'm guessing 6th), but he'd definitely make the lineup stronger. Teahen was rushed to the majors, in large part to Chris Truby's spring training injury, and he struggled in his first full season. I really don't see that going on with Gordon. He put up fantastic numbers last year in AA. He's more of a hitter than Teahen at AA. If he starts in KC, he'd do fine with the bat and fine with the glove.

meteorologistdave: I think Gordon is talented enough to do very well in the majors right away, I just think it would be beneficial to give him a little more experience. Gordon's draft counterpart Ryan Zimmerman has already logged 672 ABs, so I'm guessing Gordon is probably ready. I just tend to be cautious, especially considering how important his development is to the future of the franchise. The next most likely prospect to make the team, Billy Butler?

garoyal23: In my mind, the thing that will keep Butler from making the team will be his defense. He was drafted as a 3B. He was then moved to 1B. Then moved to the OF. From what I've seen, he isn't doing all that badly defensively, but he would surely benefit from spending 2007 (or the greater part of it) in AAA working on his defense. I think the Omaha OF will be Lubanski in left, Maier in center and Butler in right. Huber will get the majority of his ABs (if he's not traded) from the DH spot in the order, but he's likely to play the field as well, so he's not viewed as one dimensional when Moore is shopping him.

meteorologistdave: That's pretty much what I was thinking when I asked the question. This season will tell us a lot about the future positions of Butler and Huber. My guess is that one of the two will become the Royals' left fielder (probably Butler) and the other will see time at DH. Of course, then there's talk about Huber moving back to catcher. So, his future is really up in the air. Butler is young enough I think he can become a passable left fielder. So, with Butler/Huber in left field and Teahen in right, how does that bode for the future of Lubanski, Maier, Costa, and the Royals' other outfield prospects?

garoyal23: DeJesus is under contract through the 2010 season (there's a team option for 2011), so he's going to be a fixture in center field for a long time. Well past the time that the Royals will have to make a decision on the futures of those you mentioned. I've seen that Maier has drawn some interest from other clubs and could eventually be traded. I'm sure that Costa is one that other teams would be interested in as well. I'd like to keep Lubanski in the organization, though. He is a young kid and has reached the AAA level. Both Lubanski and Maier were drafted in '03, so they could stay in the Royals minor leagues through the 2008 season. At that time, Lubanski would be only 23 and Maier would be 26. Shane Costa (also drafted in 2003) would be turning 27 after the 2008 season.

meteorologistdave: Lubanski would be a good prospsect to keep around considering his upside. He's just a year older than Butler and he's held his own offensively over the past two seasons. Maier could also be useful as a fourth outfielder with his versatility (he can play all the outfield positions). The outfield situation looks pretty good and the Royals have plenty of options and time to make these decisions with Sanders and probably Brown in the outfield this season. The Royals seem set everywhere except the middle infield positions. German's defense will have to improve before he becomes an everyday second basemen. Are there any middle infield prospects who seem like they could be the second basemen or shortstop of the future? Outside of Jeff Bianchi, who can't get out of rookie ball, I can't think of any who stand out.

garoyal23: I can't either. There's Sanchez and Blanco in the upper minors. Sanchez has the glove for SS (Blanco, too, for that matter) but I don't think either will put up the offensive numbers that you like to see out of your SS. Sanchez is going to need a full season at AAA and then we'll have to see what happens after that. We are set at 2B this season with Grudzielanek and probably 2008, as he has a player option for '08 ($4.0 to $4.5 million). I've read that Bianchi profiles out better as a 2B, rather than SS (I guess it has to do with his range). So, the way it looks, we've got no one to look to as our SS of the future. We used to think we were set at 2B for the future with Gotay and Murphy in the system, but they are both gone and all we got was Jeff Keppinger (who was recently DFA'd).

meteorologistdave: The middle infield looks pretty bare, so it'll be interesting to see what Moore can do to fix that. Next time we'll discuss the Royals' pitching and catching prospects. I guess that will mainly be a discussion about the Royals’ pitching prospects since there aren’t really any catching prospects to discuss.

Did the Royals really overpay Meche?

2006-12-29T14:02:00.000-05:00

Barry Zito signed a 7-year, $126 million deal with the Giants yesterday, continuing the trend of overpriced starting pitching. The two top starters in the free agent market pulled over $15 million a year. But, they are clearly the two best starters available and will fill the ace role nicely for any team willing to spend the money.

Here's a list of the contracts given to the top free agent starters this offseason. The dashed line separates the two tiers of starters.

Ranked in terms of cost:
1. Barry Zito, 28 (7 years at $18 million/yr, total: $126 million)
2. Jason Schmidt, 33 (3 years at $15.7 million/yr, total $47 million)
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3. Gil Meche, 28 (5 years at $11 million/yr, total: $55 million)
4. Jeff Suppan, 31 (4 years at $10.5 million/yr, total: $42 million)
5. Ted Lilly, 30 (4 years at $10 million/yr, total: $40 million)
6. Miguel Bautista, 35 (3 years at $8.33 million/yr, total: $25 million)
7. Adam Eaton, 29 (3 years at $8.17 million/yr, total $24.5 million)

Meche was the most expensive pitcher out of the second-tier of starters in terms of contract length and cost per year. Was this justified by his market value or did the Royals overpay?

Justified:

Meche is the youngest of the free agent starters listed above. That certainly increases his market value. Meche also has the most upside of the second-tier starters, although Eaton is close. Eaton had a poor year which hurt his market value considerably. Suppan and Bautista are considerably older and are league-average starters, so there's no upside there. In terms of upside, age, and recent performance, Meche is the best available pitcher.

Overpaid:

The main downside to Meche is his past injury problems. Giving a 5-year contract to an injury prone player is certainly risky business. Meche also struggled in 2004 and 2005, most likely because of injury problems. He had a good season last year, with a 4.48 ERA and a 1.86 K/BB. Will his success continue or was it just an anomaly?

Conclusion: The Royals signed Meche for a deal that was reasonable for the market.

Daily Lancer Discussion: Offseason Moves

2006-12-22T01:11:00.000-05:00

Now that we have Darren's thoughts on the offseason moves thus far, georgiaroyal and I decided to have a discussion about the Royals' offseason moves:

georgiaroyal: I suppose we've got to begin with the job that Moore is doing in his first offseason as the Royals GM. What I really appreciate, as a fan, is action on his part. Some may quibble about the money that's been spent and so on, but staying with what we had just wasn't a viable option.

soonerroyal: I certainly agree with that. Although the Meche deal seems well to be extremely expensive, he is immediately better than anyone on the staff for the past several years. He's also made some major changes to the bullpen. It seems as though Dayton Moore is moving away from the young power arms and relying on veteran relievers.

georgiaroyal: Meche is getting $7 million in '07 and then it jumps to $11 million in '08-'09 and then $12 million in '10 and '11. Sweeney's contract coming off of the books after this season helps us afford him, and I'd rather have money wrapped up in a pitcher than a position player, anyway. I like what's being done in the pen. We need guys that can come in and throw strikes. How frustrating has it been to watch a guy trot in from the pen and struggle with the zone?

soonerroyal: That's a very good point. And it seems like the Royals are gravitating toward strike throwers and getting rid of the guys who have no clue where the strikezone is (Burgos, Sisco). However, it still hurts to see great young arms leave the team, especially when they cost so little. But, this team needs a change. The major league team is getting the overhaul it needs to become a functional unit again. Allard's teams placed the burden mainly on the youngsters. But, it looks like Dayton is going to place the burden on veterans and once the young players are ready to contribute, then everything should come together.

georgiaroyal: That is very much the way it has worked for the Braves over the past 15 years. Now, instead of being forced to put guys like Greinke in the rotation, we can leave them in the minors until they are absolutely ready. Dayton's money is being spent on different types of players than Baird when he had a little to play with. I'm less concerned signing guys like Meche, Dotel, Bale, and Riske than when Baird brought in Santiago and Juan Gonzalez. The reward is much more likely than with those types of guys.

soonerroyal: I really like the potential reward from the Meche deal. He's entering the prime of his career and he's coming off a strong season when he was healthy for the first time. Dotel is a very good closer if he's healthy and is only 33. Those are certainly good gambles. Gonzalez and Santiago, as you mentioned, were well past their prime and had more risk than reward.

soonerroyal: Moving on to the Royals’ recent trades, the Sisco for Gload trade still strikes me as rather odd. The Royals gave up a very talented lefty for a reserve first basemen/outfielder. I'm still having trouble justifying this deal, although Gload will be a useful player certainly. He gets on base at a decent clip and has modest power. But, giving up a young power arm seems pretty risky. It's the type of move a contender would make to complete their team, but not a team that needs to build a core of talented players.
georgiaroyal: At the risk of sounding like a Moore-lover (maybe I am...a little), I do like the acqusition of Gload. He gives Shealy a backup at 1B as well as a guy that can play a corner OF position. This makes Sanders and Brown even more expendible than they already are. Our list of guys that can play the outfield in KC next year is: Teahen, DeJesus, Gathright, Brown, Sanders, Costa, Gload, and possibly Maier, Huber, and Butler. Wow. That sure is a long list, but the primary reason for getting him was to have competition for Shealy. He'll be a good guy to have around for that. I agree about giving up Sisco, though. It is risky, but I don't think that one will come back to bite us. I really don't. The league adjusted to him and he had nothing else to go to.

georgiaroyal: Sisco averaged 5.02 BB/9 innings in his rookie year (his good year). Last year, that number jumped to 6.17 BB/9 innings. That isn't what you want coming out of the pen.

soonerroyal: Sisco certainly has a lot of development left. He's going to have to learn another pitch and improve his command. If he does (probably a big IF), he could be a top setup man or closer. But, Gload will ensure Sweeney never takes the field and give the Royals options at the outfield spots. I just think that with all of the outfield options the Royals have, signing someone like Mientkiewicz could have accomplished the same thing without giving up a young arm. But, it's not a terrible move. What are your thoughts on the Jason LaRue acquistion?

georgiaroyal: That's true. It's not terrible, but it would have been nice to send Sisco to the minors for a year or so and see what happens with him.

Getting LaRue was a deal that I didn't pay that much attention to. The Reds are paying half the '07 salary. He's a low average hitter with some pop in his bat. That sounds like a certain someone we know, doesn't it? Buck just hasn't put it together, yet, so getting LaRue will either push Buck to produce or it will prove him to be a solid part time/backup catcher. John isn't a young Buck (pun intended). I'm still holding out hope that he will have a breakout year and approach 18-20 HR and a .260 batting average. I think he's capable of those type of numbers. Hopefully, hearing LaRue's footsteps will inspire him to reach those numbers.

soonerroyal: Buck and LaRue are very similar. Their offensive numbers are very similar, their SB/CS ratio is very similar. He's basically an older version of Buck. So, hopefully the Royals just acquired him to bring in some competition in case Buck struggles. LaRue isn't a guy you want as your starting catcher. I think Buck has some upside as well. He's shown pretty good power at times, so maybe his bat is just taking a while to develop.

georgiaroyal: Buck will be turning 27 this season. He's approaching his prime, and I do expect him to put up some better offensive numbers in 2007.

georgiaroyal: Before the season starts, I'd still like to see some moves made, and I expect to see some action with all of our outfielders. Maybe we can use Brown/Sanders (or both) to acquire some more pitching depth or maybe a shortstop of the future to push Berroa. We are set at all of our infield positions. We are definitely set in the outfield, and catcher. If the Royals have some money and want to acquire another veteran starter, I don't think I'd have a problem with it. We don't have a lot of young guys knocking the door down, so let them continue to develop.

georgiaroyal: I'll admit that I'm always high on the number of wins I predict, but right now, this looks like a team that could win between 75-80 games.

soonerroyal: That pretty much echoes my sentiments. The Royals are pretty well set overall, but the more reliable veteran starters the team can get, the better. I'm certainly looking forward to the season and being able to watch a stable rotation for once. Hopefully it will put an end to all the random waiver wire starters the Royals have used over the past few seasons. I'm not quite as optimistic, but I think 70-75 games is pretty reasonable. If Butler and Gordon get up here quickly and make an impact right away, I could certainly see 75-80 games. On our next post, we'll have a discussion about any new Royals' moves as well as our thoughts about the Royals’ depth chart, particularly at the top.

Recent Moves

2006-12-16T18:56:00.000-05:00

I had been meaning to run down the Royals other recent acquisitions-and then the Sisco-Gload trade goes does this afternoon. So I will get to that after I cover the other moves.

Burgos for Bannister

I really didn’t like this trade at first but I’ve warmed up to it a little but overall it is still not a move I would have made. Burgos was mishandled but still has got great stuff and very intriguing potential for any team patient enough to keep him in the minors for another year or so to let him learn to pitch.

Bannister is a decent pitcher. He’s rather old for a prospect. I’ve had an infatuation with Scott Baker for a long time and the more I looked at their numbers, the more I saw them as similar. Too much has been made over Bannister’s 38 ip last year. Some of his advocates point to his decent ERA in that time, his detractors point to his bad BB/K ratio. Historically his BB/K ratio has been good, his WHIP and ERA are also pretty good. Of course, his stuff is not stellar so it will be his ability to change speeds and hit his spots that will determine if he can be a reasonable back of the rotation starter. I think he will be given every opportunity to start this year and would expect an ERA of about 5.00 with the big club.

Octavio Dotel

We have our proven closer. Dotel for $5 million + another $2 in incentives. A smart move—Dotel has been a strikeout machine in the past and if he is healthy could be one of the better closers in the AL. He could also be a very valuable trading chip come July (assuming the Royals are not on some miraculous run). One note for concern is that Dotel’s numbers have for the past few years looked a lot better than his actual ERA. Regardless, it’s a good move and the only way the Royals could screw it up is to get a few good months of Dotel and then sign him to a lucrative extension. Hopefully, he’s just keeping the seat warm until someone like Ryan Braun or Leo Nunez are ready.

John Bale

Who? Was my first thought, but the guy had very good stats in Japan. 2 yrs @ $2 million per. I like this gamble, again this guy has got some good stuff and might be more than just a lefty specialist. The Royals scouting may have paid off with this little diamond in the rough.

Joakim Soria

Our Rule V pick has gotten a lot of press due to his perfect game last week in the Mexican League. There is a lot to like here. Translating numbers from the Mexican League is tricky, but it considered most of the time about AAA. Also considered an extreme hitters league. Soriah is 9-0, with a 1.77ERA, 71.1ip, 46h, 8hr, 19w 73k. Those are very impressive numbers. I think this guy could actually contribute this year. He’s got 3 pitches and should be a long relief guy and perhaps get a spot start.

Sisco for Gload

I don’t get it. I really don’t. Perhaps it has something to do with a report by Rany at Baseball Prospectus that reported that Sisco was in the food court getting a taco during a recent game. Sisco was dismissed from the team. I certainly think Sisco chances of becoming an abover average pitcher are not above 50%. I don’t mind trading Sisco, but was Ross Gload the best we could do? He’s not a bad player, just not exactly what we need. He's a left handed hitter who can play OF and 1st. (perhaps those rumors about us trying to get Ryan Church were not so off base--would Jim Bowden really not take Sisco for Church? That would have been a much happier move for me). Of course, the obvious is that this is the precursor of what could be several moves involving: Emil Brown, Justin Huber, Reggie Sanders, and less likely Mike Sweeney or Ryan Shealy. The only way this trade is redeemed is if the follow up is a good deal and not a “dump”. I must say I’m scared to death that we are going to get not very good value for Justin Huber.

So, we've dumped Affelt, Bautista, Howell, MacDougal, Burgos, and now Sisco. Some of those trades look good to me (Shealy) others leave me with big questions (Burgos and Sisco). I don't quite get Dayton's M.O.. He dumps crafty left hander (Howell) but picks up crafty righthander (Bannister). He dumps underachieving power arms (Bautista, Sisco) and picks up another (De La Rosa). It will be interesting to see what comes of these moves and what is in store. One thing you cannot do is complain about this offseason being boring.

Gil Meche to the Royals

2006-12-07T19:01:00.000-05:00

5 years/$55 million. Let's get this out of the way: the Royals way overpaid. No if's, and's or but's. But this is our "statement". Would I have chosen this? No. But here we are. I'm actually excited. It's December: we can look at Meche and see what we want to see. Let's look at the good and bad of this move:

The Bad:
Let's start with the negative:

Meche has had major shoulder problems

In the 4 years since his shoulder surgery, he's never had an OPS+ of over 100 (average)

He had a 5.14 ERA and 1.60 WHIP on the road last year

He's never pitched more than 200 innings

The Royals gave more money to Meche than Jason Schmidt got. Almost as much as Chris Carpenter got.

The Good:

Meche is only 28--pretty young for a FA pitcher.

Meche's raw stuff is very good.

Meche's innings pitched have increased each of the past 3 years as he's gotten stronger from his shoulder problems

His strikeout rate spiked last year and he K'ed over 7/9ip-a promising sign for future results.

Meche had a bad 5 game stretch at the end of July/beginning of August. Take out that stretch and his numbers are:
170ip 151h 64w 139k 3.76 ERA 1.26 WHIP.
3 of those starts were on the road (including a horrific start in Texas where he only pitched 1 inning). He skipped a start after that stretch and pitched better the rest of the season. There are probably a lot of average pitchers who could take a 5 game stretch and look a lot better.

Dayton Moore knows all this stuff. He was willing to pony up David Glass's money anyway. Perhaps he believes that with the right coaching Meche will turn into a sub 4.00 ERA pitcher. We will have to way 4 months to find out.

I think we may very well look back at this move as the defining moment of Dayton's era. It could be the day we rue as when we trapped ourself into an awful contract because we were desperate. Or it could be the bold stroke that pushes the Royals out of being known as a punching bag in baseball--the day the Royals became winners again. Today we are left to wonder and hope. And right now hope seems worth $55 million.

Winter Meetings Preview

2006-12-01T18:45:00.000-05:00

Next week are the winter meetings. The Royals will, no doubt, try to pick up more pitchers. I had advocated looking at Adam Eaton and/or Randy Wolf. Both those guys are gone now. Guys like Padilla and Lilly are looking for 4 yr/$40 mil contracts. Gil Meche will get a little less than that. I am among many Royals fans who increasingly willing to have the Royals sit this one out when it comes to really expensive league average starters. Save the money for something else. The best route is to look for free agent bargains and trades. Of course, if the Royals spend big bucks on a starter, I'll probably talk myself into thinking its a good move.

Trading Chips (in order of how I value them): Esteban German, Emil Brown, Justin Huber, Joey Gathright, Reggie Sanders.

I don't want to trade German but I have a feeling he's on the block.

Bruce Chen--really like the idea of signing him to a 1-year/$4 mil deal with some incentives and perhaps an option for a second year.

Miguel Batista--he could be a bargain. But I've already read an article calling him a bargain, so he probably is now expensive. But if we could get him for 1 yr/$6 million with an vesting option I think he could be a guy that could pitch 200ip of 4.75 ERA.

Yusmeir Petit--Joey Gathright for Petit? Not great stuff, but good control. Marlins have pitching out their ears and he would be good to have start the year in Omaha.

Scott Baker--Maybe I'm obsessed with him , but I think he will bounce back and be a good pitcher. Would either Emil Brown or Justin Huber be enough to get it done.

I've also long advocated a new SS. And while I still would love that, if the Royals can't find someone that interests them, perhaps the best thing to do is hope that Berroa improves his fielding and can post a 675-700 OPS.

I think the Royals will have made a few moves a week from now. They might have even made some huge (by Royals standards) moves. It should be exciting and should give us our first offseason glimspe of how Dayton plans to build this team.

The case for trading Mark Teahen

2006-11-23T00:43:00.000-05:00

Perhaps this should be called the case for shopping Mark Teahen. I really like him as a player and think the strides he made last year were real.

Let’s recap Mark’s season:

April: stunk—678 OPS
May: demoted—stunk for a few games and then got smokin’ hot
June: warmed up—816 OPS
July: smokin’—1135 OPS
August: hot—905 OPS
September: shoulder surgery

He finished with an 874 OPS—good for 2nd in the AL for third basemen and 8th for all third baseman. As we approach 2007, Teahen is being readied for the outfield because of Mr. Alex Gordon. Teahen’s numbers actually translate well to the OF as his OPS would rank 6th out of all LFers and 5th out of all RFers. However with the lack of pitching the Royals have, it seems prudent that they should listen to offers for Teahen.

What I would look for is: established young starters not close to free agency. Perhaps a pitching prospect might be accepted but it would have to be a great prospect. A couple of teams that need a third basemen are the Twins and Angels. The Twins have got a ton of pitching prospects: Matt Garza, Kevin Slowery, Anthony Swarzak…just to name a few. But it would be tough to trade within the division (even though I really like Garza and Swarzak). To me the perfect solution is the Angels—they have depth in positions we need. We provide them with a cheap third baseman which would allow them to go out and sign Alfonso Soriano this offseason. The Angels reportedly offered Ervin Santana and Erick Aybar for Miguel Tejada in the middle of last season. The Orioles foolishly turned it down. They apparently wanted Tejada to play 3rd. Tejada is a great player—but an expensive one also. I would target getting the same package from the Angels by pairing Teahen with Mike Sweeney and kicking in $8 million dollars to make Sweeney look more attractive.

The upside for the Angels is that they can acquire Teahen and Sweeney and still have money to Alfonso Soriano. They would then have one of the most potent lineups around and a great pitching staff with Lackey, Weaver, Escobar, Saunders.

Santana was 23 last year and went 16-8 with a 4.28 ERA. His WHIP was 1.23 and he struck out 141 with 70 walks in 204ip. He allowed a .265 average on balls in play (which means he was awfully lucky). He has an outside chance to turn into an elite pitcher but more than likely will settle into being a very good pitcher with an ERA that will hover around 4 or a little below. Santana has flyball tendencies that would fit in well at the K.

Aybar is sparkplug SS. His defense is still uneven and he hasn’t fully harnessed his speed. But he has shown the ability to hit. This past year, his OPS was well into the 800s for most of the year. He got called up and sat on the bench for awhile with the big club and then slumped horribly at the end of the year leaving his OPS at AAA at 740 as a 22 year old. I think he could develop into a good defensive SS with an above average (perhaps well above average) bat for the position.

I think the Angels are desperate to make some big moves and improve their offense. The Angels signing of Gary Matthews Jr. to a 5 year/$50 million contract shows that they might just be desperate. The signing of Matthews also seems to signal that they will not pursue Vernon Wells and I still doubt they want to take on Manny. Perhaps they will set their eyes again on Miguel Tejada. If the Angels are not as desperate for offense as I think they are, then we stick with what we’ve got—Teahen--a young player with outstanding offensive skills and the ability to play a premium position.

2007 Options

2006-11-14T23:42:00.000-05:00

2007 Options

It is such a stab in the dark trying to predict what any given team will do in the offseason. I hope to look at the Royals position by position and see what the feasible options are—perhaps by covering more ground we will have a greater chance of stumbling on the acquitions that Dayton Moore is looking to make for next year. Feel free to add you own prognostications.

Catcher:
The 2006 crew:

John Buck was the starter and didn’t make the desired strides offensively that many of us hoped—his OPS hovering around 700. It is very difficult to accurately measure a catcher since a lot of value can come from working with pitchers. Buck seems to be decent defensively. Catchers tend to develop offensively later than other positional prospects—but that is no gurantee that Buck can raise his OPS to 750ish range.

Paul Bako stunk. He won’t be coming back.

Down on the farm:

Paul Phillips and Matt Tupman are not going to be starting catcher but either could be an improvement over Bako. I look for Philips to be the backup and Tupman to be in Omaha.

Other options.
FA Greg Zaun has already been linked to KC. But if he returned, it would probably be as a started-which means Buck would have to be flipped. Some guys I like if we wanted to trade include Yorvit Torrealba-COL and Kelly Shoppach from CLE—both are decent offensively and supposed to be good defensively and are blocked currently. Signing someone like Mike Piazza could be a smart move--he could catch a little (a very little) play some 1st and some DH when Sweeney gets hurt. But it won't happen.

2007 predictions: Buck and Philips--What should happen Buck and Piazza

Third Base
The 2006 Crew:

The resurgent Mark Teahen—played great—874 OPS. But it sounds like he is already being prepped to go to the outfield when his shoulder heals. I like Teahen—a lot—but I would hope the Royals would listen to trade offers (Ervin Santana?) for him. Unless we are blown away—we hang on to him and let him play RF (assuming his shoulder heals, his arm would be more valuable in RF than LF)

Down on the Farm:
Teahen is just holding the spot for Alex Gordon. The only drama is here is will Gordon break ST with the Club or get to return home to Nebraska for a month or two

Other Options: not needed

2007 predictions: It now appears Gordon may start the year with the big club. What should happen: First, I think the idea of trading Teahen should be seriously explored. If we don't get a good offer, then Teahen leans the OF during ST and then starts year at 3rd until June when Gordon is called up

SS
The 2006 crew:

Angel Berroa was the worst regular in baseball last year—stunk at the plate, stunk in the field, stunk on the basepaths. Fortunately he’s signed for the next 2 years for a total of $8 million. The Royals aren’t contending for the division crown, so it won’t kill us to put him back out there, it will just be very painful. Besides, he can’t be worse than he was last year….right?

Down on the Farm:
Andres Blanco has a worse bat (if you can believe it) than Berroa but better glove but he had surgery is probably out until mid year. Angel Sanchez is a bit of an enigma as a lot of people like his tools but hasn’t performed that well. We won’t count on either on of those guys for next year

Other Options:
Craig Counsell and Alex Gonzalez are out on the FA market and either one would be a big upgrade. Counsell is not young but his defense is good and he would probably give us more offensive production than Berroa did last year. Gonzalez defense is supposed to be pretty good he is capable of being a decent offensive player but seems to be somewhat streaky. On the trade front, many Royals fans have long salivated over the idea of trading for the Angels Erick Aybar. I see him almost certainly being moved this offseason—but probably not to us. I have heard the Angels really want to upgrade CF, 3B, 1B. I’m not sure David Dejesus is their kind of player (and it would take more than Aybar for me to give up DDJ) and Gathright is not going to get it done. We are short on 1B already. As for 3B, well read below.

2007 Prediction: Craig Counsell signs a 2 year/ $6million deal. Berroa is one expensive backup What should happen: Erick Aybar

2nd Base
The 2006 Crew:
No position boasts as many option for the Royals as 2nd base. Gold Glover Mark Grudzalanek will be back putting up a 740ish OPS. He could again be very attractive at the trade deadline. Esteban German will probably return to his role as “super sub”. I really hope he gets at least 400 Abs. The other option is he might be traded (how many 2nd basemen are there with an OPS of 880?). Again, I don’t trade him unless I get some good young pitching.

Down on the Farm:

Jeff Keppinger was picked up in a deal with the Mets. He isn’t young but has posted a high batting average everywhere he’s went. He will be nice to have around should the injure bug hit. Donnie Murphy is a longshot for 2007, but I still like this guy in the future.

Other Options: We have more than enough help at 2nd base.

2007 predictions: Grudz and German. What should happen: Grudz should be traded for a decent prospect and German should be our full time second baseman.

1st Base
The 2006 Crew:

Minky won’t be back so I won’t waste much time on him. The Rockies were nice enough to practically give us Ryan Shealy last year. He struggled the first few weeks but brought his OPS up to 789. This year he will be expected to hit with more power and get that OPS up toward at least 850. His defense was surprisingly good.

Down on the Farm:
We got nothin’ in the way of 1st base prospects in the High Minors.

Other Options: my guess is someone like Mark Teahen, or Emil Brown will be the back up 1st baseman if Shealy goes down.

2007 Prediction: Shealy--and that is what should happen.

LF
The 2006 Crew:
Emil Brown and his 815 OPS were more than solid. His defense was better. The guy is solid—but he is due a raise in arbitration and he could be prime trade bait. I think this guy is underrated and should only be traded for value (Juan Gutierrez—HOU prospect).

Down on the Farm:
Does Justin Huber have leprosy? The way he was treated this year you might think so. So first base is not his thing—sounds like things are going well in LF. I’m guessing a pretty safe bet is that one of these two guys will be traded this offseason—perhaps both.

Other Options:
Again, Teahen could end up in LF

2007 Prediction: Emil Brown--Huber traded. What should happen--Brown should be shopped for a pitcher and Huber should start in LF.

The 2006 Crew
David Dejesus had his obligatory injury and then came back got real hot and then cooled off towards the end of the year. Dejesus could go out next year and have an 850 OPS or he could be hurt for 3 months. From all accounts his defense out in CF is decent but Dayton Moore’s first move was to pick up Joey Gathright-who is fast. Unfortunately, he can’t hit, can’t hit for power, and doesn’t get good jumps (unless it’s over a parked car). Gathright has had good OBP in the minors, but I think he is someone whose minor league numbers don’t translate very well to the Big Show. A team like the Marlins could use him. I’ll steal this trade straight from futuregm over on the Scout board: Gathright for Yusmeiro Petit.

Down on the Farm:
Nothing

Other Options:
Not that it is a place of real need but I think Reggie Willits-LAA and Ryan Church-WAS are underrated.

2007 Prediction: Dejesus—Gathright traded--and that is what should happen unless you can pick up Willits or Church on the cheap--in which case-you could trade both CFers (I know a crazy idea)

RF
The 2006 Crew:

Never fight a land war in Asia. Never sign Reggie Sanders in an even year. He didn’t hit and then got injured, landed on the DL where he continued not to hit. Reggie could be trade bait. Perhaps he could go to the Yankees for Carl Pavano—Carl would need to waive his no-trade clause and I have no idea why he would do that to come to KC (unless we guaranteed picking up his 2009 option for $13 million). Of course, the Yankees would need to send us something like $15-25 million (depending on the option situation). Dayton made this kind of trade of Odalis and I like the risk/reward on this. Shane Costa didn’t hit great in 250 ABs but he raked down at Omaha. I am going to pencil in Teahen.

Down on the Farm:
Billy Butler will be hitting the cover off the ball in Omaha but should probably spend the majority of the year in AAA.

Other options:
There was a small rumor that the Royals might be interested in Jose Guillen if they trade Reggie. Jose can be a good player but his attitude is Sheffieldesque-so I would take a pass unless it’s a really good bargain (something like 1 year/$2 million)

2007 Prediction: Teahen with Costa playing second fiddle--if we can trade Teahen then Costa gets a shot to start until Butler is ready.

DH
The 2006 Crew:

Stairs is gone so we now have the indestructible Mike Sweeney as our only full time DH on the roster. Mike missed a lot of time last year, even by his standards. His hitting when he was healthy was also sub-par. But he looks to be here for $11 million next year, so we might as well make the best of it.

Down on the Farm
Other Options:
Nada

2007 Prediction: Sweeney—if healthy could be traded mid-year. What should happen--perhaps Sweeney can be traded and someone like Piazza could DH for us.

Starting Pitching
The 2006 Crew:

Runelvys Hernandez was awful with an occasion good start. Redman, Elarton and Mays were predictably not good. Luke Hudson emerged as “reliable” in the sense that he was better than anything else we had. Odalis Perez was picked up in a good high reward trade. Zack Greinke battled back from his issues to pitch pretty well at AA. Jorge De La Rosa couldn’t control his pitches. The starting rotation was and is a mess.

Down on the Farm:
Tyler Lumsden and Luke Hochevar cannot be counted on for next year. As I mentioned Zach Greinke showed he deserves a shot at the rotation come spring.

Other Options:
Let’s start with trade options: We could always pick up overpaid vets like Jarrod Washburn or Carl Pavano—they could probably be had fairly cheap in terms of talent to give up, if we were willing to take on salary. Young pitching is just about the hardest thing to find on the trade market. Perhaps the Twins will trade someone like Scott Baker, but I don’t think they will do it within the division. Baltimore might be willing to trade Hayden Penn, but I’m not sure Justin Huber or Emil Brown would be enough to get it done (but they are Baltimore). There were some whispers that Paul Maholm might be available in Pittsburgh—he would be a good pickup. As I mentioned above, I would like to go after Ervin Santana—but I think I’ll do a whole post devoted to that.

The FA market is flush with #3/#4 starters. We start with the conviction that none of the top guys will sign with us. Below are some guys in our range (maybe). I cut and paste some stats that Georgia Royals was kind enough to provide on a message board. I also estimate what it would take to sign them.

Ted Lilly (30 years old) 15-13, 4.31 ERA in 32 games (181.1 innings). 1.43 whip, .254 obaa. 4 yrs/$40 million

Vincente Padilla (29 years old) 15-10, 4.50 ERA in 200ip, 1.38 WHIP 4yrs/$36 million

Gil Meche (28 years old) 11-8, 4.46 ERA in 32 games (186.2 innings). 1.43 whip, .256 obaa. Made $3.7 M in '06. 3 yrs/$27 millionAdam Eaton (28 years old) 7-4, 5.12 ERA in 13 games (65.0 innings). 1.57 whip, .299 obaa. $4.65 M in '06. 3yrs/$25 million

Randy Wolf (30 years old) 4-0, 5.56 ERA in 12 games (56.2 innings). 1.69 whip, .285 obaa. 3 yrs/$21 million

Tomo Ohka (30 years old) 4-5, 4.82 ERA in 18 games (97.0 innings). 1.37 whip, .266 obaa. 2yrs/$15 million

John Thomson (33 years old) 2-7, 4.82 ERA in 18 games (80.1 innings). 1.56 whip, .295 obaa. 2 yr/ $12 million

Tony Armas (28 years old) 9-12, 5.03 ERA in 30 games (154.0 innings). 1.50 whip, .279 obaa. 2 yr/$12 million

Jeff Weaver (30 years old) 3yrs/$27 million

Bruce Chen (29 years old) 1 yr/$4million

Looking at that list, I would go after Adam Eaton (Randy Wolf is my backup plan) and then try to pick Chen up cheap.

2007 Predictions: Eaton, Perez, Hudson, Chen, Greinke. What should happen: Ervin Santana, Eaton, Perez, Hudson, Greinke.

Relief Pitchers
The 2006 crew:

Jimmy Gobble, Todd Wellermeyer, Joel Peralta and Joe Nelson have earned a shot in the pen next year. Youngsters Ambiriox Burgos, Andy Sisco, and Ryan Braun will have to earn a shot. Someone like Jorge De La Rosa could be sent to the pen if he doesn’t cut it as a starter.

Down on the Farm:
Ryan Braun had some great numbers, can he translate those to the big show? Leo Nunez has some great stuff but may need a little more time in Omaha.

Other options:
There are always a slew of options out there to trade for. Signing a guy like David Riske would be a smart move. The Royals also picked up Ken Ray on waivers from the Braves

2007 prediction:Gobble, Wellermeyer, Nelson, Braun, Peralta, Ray and Riske? with Sisco and Burgos figuring things out in AAA--and that is what I think should happen too.

I'll follow up with a post showing my "predicted" team as well as "my" plan...

The "Right" Stuff

2006-11-10T22:15:00.000-05:00

This entry will focus on the right handed starters that the Royals have throughout the system. About the only one worth mentioning from the ORoyals is right hander Danny Tamayo. Fellow 2001 draftee Angel Sanchez beat Tamayo to the majors with his 2006 September call up. The only other guy from the 2001 draft that could eventually get to KC is Devon Lowery, who had regained his stock a little of late. Tamayo saw limited action in 2006. I don't know this for sure, but I'd guess he was set back by injury. He was 3-2 with an ERA of 4.21 in 7 games (3 starts) for Omaha. Again, barely worth mentioning at all.

The only right handed starter worth mentioning from the Wranglers (since Zach Greinke isn't really a "prospect" anymore since losing his rookie status) is 23 year old Billy Buckner. Buckner appears to be a ground ball pitcher. He averaged 2.28 ground outs per fly out in '06, which undoubtedly led to his success while with the Mavericks. He began the season in High Desert and ended in Wichita where he made 13 starts for the Wranglers. In those 13 starts, he was 5-3, 4.64 in 75.2 innings. His opponents batting average was .265. He needs to cut down on his walks. He averaged 1.62 K/BB and sported a whip of 1.55 despite allowing about a hit per inning. In 2006, Buckner was averaging about 5 walks per 9 innings. He ended the season with two straight scoreless outings.

I thought there were a couple of guys worthy of note from the Mavericks in 2006, and one of them ended the season with an ERA of over 7.00 in 26 starts! Luis Cota is that guy. Cota is 21 years old and was signed by the Royals as a draft and follow out of the 2003 draft. He was signed just before the 2004 draft. On the whole, Cota was 5-11, 7.09 in 132.0 IP in '06. Blah! His opponents batting average was .290 and his whip was 1.64. He produces slightly more ground outs than fly outs at 1.09 ground outs per fly out. He allowed 19 dingers this season which translates to 1 about every 7 innings. This is a bit high. Usually 1 HR per 10 innings is considered acceptable. Of the 19 homers allowed, though, 12 were allowed at home. Here's where it really gets interesting. His HR/9 inning average was 1.67 at home and 0.94 on the road. His OPS against average at home was .940 vs. .797 on the road. His opponents were hitting .317 against him at home, but only .265 on the road. His H/9 average was much better on the road in 2006. So, the numbers look much better under the microscope and I look for this 21 year old right hander to put up some very strong numbers while in the Wichita rotation in 2007. The other Maverick worthy of mention is Kyle Crist. Crist is a 23 year old, 6'3" right hander that was a 34th round pick of the Royals in 2004. Crist has good velocity from what I've read (93-95 neighborhood) and has been a bit of a pleasant surprise for the Royals. Crist was 5-2, 4.15 in 15 starts for the Mavs. He's a ground ball pitcher, who produced twice as many ground ball outs than fly outs in '06. Of the 6 homers Kyle allowed this season, 5 of them were at home, but his overall numbers don't appear to be skewed very much like Cota's were.

The Bees had some very strong pitching in 2006 and they were led by the big three of Carlos Rosa (minor league pitcher of the year), Chris Nicoll and Matt Kniginyzky (Na-gin-skee, I think). 21 year old Carlos Rosa was 8-6, 2.53 in 24 starts with the Bees. His opponents hit only .239 against him. He keeps it in the park. He allowed a homer every 23 innings. He got 11.1 innings in HD to end 2006, and will likely begin 2007 in Wilmington. Rosa was obtained by the Royals as a non drafted free agent out of the Dominican in 2001. Rosa reached America as a 17 year old in 2002. He was the Royals 15th best prosepect a few years back before missing the majority of the '04 season due to injury. Chris Nicoll is a 23 year old 3rd rounder in the '05 draft. Nicoll turned in an excellent first full season as a pro. He was 4-9 (and a special thanks goes out to the Bees bats for that one) with an ERA of 2.82 in 23 starts. His last three starts of the season came in a High Desert uniform. His numbers for the Bees were very solid. His whip was 1.08, 7.05 H/9, opponents batting average against was a paltry .210. He should be in Wilmington in 2007 and should do very well in the pitcher friendly Carolina League. Kniginyzky is the oldest of the three at 24 years of age. He was acqired by the Royals as a 23rd rounder in the '05 draft. He was 9-5, 3.51 in 23 starts and his opponents hit only .255 against him. He allowed a homer every 8 innings although the ratio of ground ball outs to fly ball outs suggest that he's a slight ground ball pitcher. Erik Cordier is a legit prospect. He was drafted early in the 2004 draft, but has suffered some injury problems. 2007 will have him on the shelf after Tommy John surgery. As a 20 year old, Erik was 4-1 with an ERA of 2.91 in 10 combined starts for the Bees and Chukars. Luke Hochevar was the number 1 overall pick in the 2006 draft when the Royals passed up on Andrew Miller in favor of Luke, who had held out after being picked by the Dodgers in the 2005 draft. Hochevar was 0-1, 1.17 in 4 starts for the Bees. He held his opponents to a .148 batting average while striking out 16 in 15.1 innings and only walking 2. He is currently on the shelf resting his arm after experiencing some tenderness while pitching in the Arizona Fall League. He'll probably start 2007 in Wichita, and will probably be in KC some time during the season. Daniel Cortes was acquired by Dayton Moore from the White Sox in the Mike MacDougal trade last year. Cortes will not turn 20 until March. Before the trade, Cortes was 3-9 with a 4.01 ERA in 107.2 innings for Kannapolis of the SAL. After the trade, he was 1-2, 6.69 for the Bees in the Midwest League (both are A ball). Combined, he was 4-11, 4.67 in 26 starts. His opponents batting average was .266 , his K:BB ratio was 2.29, and his K rate was 7.95 K's per 9 innings. His whip was 1.43 on the season. He's a young kid, and hopefully he was just adjusting to getting traded and such. I'd expect him to be in Wilmington in 2007.

The Chukars had some very solid right handed starters this past season. Blake Wood was a surprise 3rd round pick of the Royals in the 2006 draft out of Georgia Tech. He did put up a very solid debut in professional ball. He was 3-1, 4.50 in 52 innings. He struck out three times as many as he walked and his whip was 1.25. On the road, he was 2-1, 4.08 with a whip of 1.05. His K rate was better on the road as well as his K/BB rate, which was 4.00. Look for him in Burlington to begin the '07 season. Harold Mozingo was considered a steal in the 6th round of this year's draft, but went on to post a 3-1 record with a 6.17 ERA for the Chukars. This one, like Luis Cota, needed the microscope. His obaa at home was .361, but only .236 on the road. His home whip was 2.01, while his road whip was 1.19. The difference in OPS was staggering. He allowed an OPS of 1.051 at home, but only .657 on the road. He walked far fewer on the road and gave up half as many homers on the road. He'll be in the pitcher friendly Midwest League in 2007, so look for him to put up some great numbers. Jason Godin only pitched in 6 games for the Chukars and started 4 of them. However, I don't think his future with the club is as a starter. He was 0-1, 2.49 in his 6 games this year. As a starter, he was 0-1, 2.93 in 15.1 innings. He was a 5th rounder in '06. Josh Cribb struggled mightily in his pro debut posting record of 2-6 with a 5.19 ERA. Perhaps he'll bounce back while in Burlington next year. Tyler Chambliss (11th rounder in '06) was 4-3, 4.20 in 12 games (6 starts) for the Chukars. He was 3-1, 3.41 as a starter with a whip of 1.10 and a .223 obaa. He allowed 1 HR in 29 innings as a starter.

In Arizona, Paul Raglione was 3-0, 3.11 ERA in 10 games (7 starts). He averaged 2.5 ground outs per fly out in '06. Paul will turn 20 in January. He struck out 48 batters in 46.1 innings of work. He had a K/BB raio of almost 5.00 (48 K's, 10 BB's), and he only allowed 1 HR. Henry Arias put up some good numbers for AZ. He was 4-5 with an ERA of 3.59. He allowed fewer hits than IP, and only allowed 1 HR in 57 innings.

If I was going to rank the right handed starters that have pitched above rookie ball, I'd probably do something like this:

1. Luke Hochevar (Wichita)
2. Carlos Rosa (Wilmington)
3. Luis Cota (Wichita)
4. Billy Buckner (Omaha)
5. Eric Cordier (out for '07)
6. Chris Nicoll (Wilmington)
7. Daniel Cortes (Burlington or Wilminton)
8. Matt Kniginysky (Wilmington)
9. Kyle Crist (Wilmington or Wichita)
10. Danny Tamayo (Omaha)

Who's the next Beltran?

2006-11-05T11:52:00.000-05:00

The centerfield position has become a pretty solid position for the Royals. Between David DeJesus and Joey Gathright, the Royals should be able to have quality centerfield play for at least the next 5 years. The main question is whether or not Gathright will hit enough to become an everyday player. DeJesus is an average to slightly above-average defender in the outfield. He’s an above-average hitter as a centerfielder and a fringe average hitter as a left fielder. So, unless Gathright improves his production offensively, I think DeJesus will eventually move back to center, especially with Teahen, Huber, Lubanski and maybe Butler become options as corner outfielders. The Royals’ corner outfield depth is much stronger than there centerfielder depth, so having two good options for centerfielders is crucial.

High Minors:

The Royals don’t really have any CF prospects at AAA. Chad Allen is the only outfielder listed on the Omaha Royals roster at the moment, and he isn’t a centerfielder. Mitch Maier is the Royals’ best centerfield prospect. Maier is a solid player all-around, with at average to above-average power, speed, and defense in centerfield. Maier’s strong arm will allow him to play all three outfield positions, which should make him at least a good fourth outfielder. Overall, Maier had a good season, hitting .306/.357/.473 with 35 2Bs and 13 HRs. He’ll likely start at Omaha and could work his way on to the big league club at some point during this season.

Low Minors:

The Royals don’t have any CF prospects at High Desert or Burlington.

Rookie Ball:

Dickerson has put together two nice seasons in a row. Dickerson hit 14 doubles and 7 HRs in 242 ABs for Idaho Falls. His overall line of .281/.338/.789 is pretty good overall. As a rookie, Dickerson hit .294/.371/.491, so he has a pretty solid track record going. His defense is supposed to be his best asset and he should develop modest power with time. Dickerson will likely start at Burlington next year.

Derrick Robinson was the Royals’ 4th round pick this season. He turned down a football scholarship to sign with the Royals. His pro debut was very lackluster, hitting just .233/.335/.318. Robinson’s speed is phenomenal and he stole 20 bases, but also got caught 14 times. If he can learn how to get on-base regularly, he might have a chance to use his speed in the big leagues.

Overall: The Royals are in good shape in centerfield. DeJesus should be a solid player for several years and the Royals have good depth overall. There aren't any Damon or Beltran-like talents on the way, but no one is complaining with DeJesus in centerfield.

Future Royal Right Fielders

2006-11-02T19:02:00.000-05:00

It seems to be a trend--the Royals have one blue-chip prospect at a positition and not much else. The good news is that it seems possible that Butler will stay in RF which would definitely be a big plus.

Right Field

Omaha--Chad Allen
Chad will be 32 in February—not exactly prime prospect age. He had an 861 OPS at Omaha and seems like a good guy to have down at AAA should you need an emergency outfielder.

Wichita—Billy Butler
Billy was 20 last year and tore up AA to the tune of 331/388/499. He is probably the best pure hitter in the minors. That doesn’t mean he is perfect. His ops vs. lefties was 1246! But vs. righties was 807. While you can’t complain about the batting average, his walk rate suffered last year. His power was also not what you would expect—slugging under 500. However, Butler is such a professional hitter, I think he will improve those numbers in AAA in 2007. I also think he was working more on his defense to where his hitting suffered some.

A scout once called Butler “the worst defensive player he’s ever seen” (this was before the move to RF). I’ve only seen some tape of him in RF and while I wouldn’t call him graceful, he seems passable and he’s gotten better. He’s also got a heck of an arm.

Butler should start the year in AAA and I would expect him to destroy the pitching there for a few months and probably get called up after the All-Star Break

High Desert—Brian McFall
McFall was a 3rd round pick a few years ago. He had a 769 OPS at High Desert—933 at home, 612 on the road. He had 30 walks and 120 K’s. He’s playing the Hawaiian Baseball League and got a 618 OPS there. A suspect, not a prospect.

Burlington—Carlos Arroyo
25 year old in Low-A with a 666 ops-next!

High Desert—OD Gonzalez
OD (Oscar) was a 23rd round draft choice back in 04. He’s 22 and had a 769 OPS. Not great but we’ll keep an eye on how he does in Burlington this year.

AZ Royals-Nick Van Stratten
Nick was a 10th round pick from the St. Louis area and had a good debut. He played most of his games in Arizona before getting a cup of coffee in Idaho. Overall, he had a 819 OPS. He is supposed to be athletic and projects well and is already being called a steal from the 10th round. He’s 21 and will probably start next year in Burlington.

Rank ‘em
Butler
Van Stratten
Gonzalez
McFall
Allen
Arroyo

Out in Left Field

2006-10-26T11:27:00.000-04:00

For the Royals, Emil Brown and David DeJesus split left field duty in 2006. Brown started 84 games in left and batted .287 with 15 HR and 81 RBI. Emil's OPS was .815. DeJesus batted .295 with 8 HR and 56 RBI and an .810 OPS. Brown is arbitration eligible after making $1.775 M in 2006. He will be due another big raise for 2007. The Royals could use Brown as trade bait to try to land some pitching help. DeJesus has been a center fielder to this point in his career, but switched to left field for 60 games to make room for Joey Gathright to play center. It is kind of up in the air as to what will happen with the Royals outfield over the winter. There could be some moves made on the major league level or some of the minor league guys could be packaged and dealt.

Omaha Royals (AAA)
24 year old, Justin Huber, started 68 games in left field for the Omaha Royals in 2006. Justin's season has already been discussed as a first baseman, but I'll leave this in anyway. Huber was acquired by the Royals on July 30, 2004 in the deal that sent Kris Benson from Pittsburgh to the Mets. When we acquired Huber, he was catching. In fact, he was injured in his last game in the Mets organization at a play at the plate, which caused him to miss the remainder of the 2004 season after the trade. The Royals moved Huber out from behind the dish to 1B. Huber started 38 games at 1B for the ORoyals in 2006 before moving out to left field. Huber put up pretty decent AAA numbers. He batted .278 with 15 HR and 44 RBI in 352 at bats. His 2006 OPS was .838 (.480 slugging %). The Royals brought Huber to KC during the summer where he sat the bench. I'm not sure exactly how long Huber was on the 25 man roster this year, but I think it was about two weeks. During that time, Huber accumulated a total of 10 at bats. He was 2 for 10 with a double. He's a good offensive prospect. The Royals just need to find a place for him to play in the field.

Wichita Wranglers (AA)
Chris Lubanski (21 years old) started 108 games in left field for the Wranglers in 2006. Lubanksi was drafted by the Royals in the 1st round (5th overall) in the 2003 draft. He was drafted out of a Pennsylvania high school and signed on June 6th. Overall, Lubanski batted .282 with 15 HR and 70 RBI for the Wranglers with an OPS of .844. He also stole 11 bases in 18 attempts. Lubanski walked 72 times this season, which was tied for the team lead. Up until the 2006 season, Chris had a K:BB ratio of 2.90. In 2006, he did a much better job with a K/BB ratio of 1.56. Lubanski did improve as the season went on, as well. From July 1 to the end of the season, Lubanski hit .314 with 10 HR. His K/BB ratio also improved from July 1 on. During that time span, Lubanski had 1.27 K's per BB (47 K's, 37 BB's). When Lubanski was drafted, he was described as having blazing speed. Now, it appears he has slowed down a few ticks although he did lead the team with 11 triples, but his power numbers have improved. It is a very good sign that he is improving his K/BB ratio.

High Desert Mavericks (Advanced A)
The Mavs had two guys to get significant starts in left field, but neither is a prospect. James Tomlin (24 years old) started 58 games in left and batted .301 and a .762 OPS for the Mavs in '06. Geraldo Valentin(23 years old) signed with the Royals as a non drafted free agent in 2003. Valentin started in left for the Mavs 47 times and batted .283 with an OPS of .718 in 406 ABs. I'd hate to think how bad the offensive numbers would be if they hadn't been in High Desert.

Burlington Bees (Low A)
Ethian Santana was the primary left fielder for the Bees in 2006. He started 67 games for the Bees and batted .244 with an OPS of .615 in 312 at bats. He has stolen 20+ bases in each of the last three seasons since being drafted. Santana was drafted by the Astros in the 2002 and 2003 drafts, but signed with KC after being drafted in the 22nd round of the 2004 draft. Santana was a Pioneer league all star last season after batting .300 with an OPS of .813 for the Chukars. He did bat .286 in his last 35 games of the season from August 1 until the end of the season. I wouldn't call him a prospect, though. He is 22 years old, but he'll need to do more with the bat than a .615 OPS in low A ball to be considered a prospect.

Idaho Falls Chukars (Advanced Rookie Ball- short season)
Brett Bigler and Alvi Morel split duty in left field for the Chukars in '06. Both are 22 years old. Bigler was a 7th round draft pick in the 2006 draft out of UC-Riverside. His game is high OBP and speed. He came as advertised. He batted .276, but had an OBP of .392 on the season. He appears to be a slap hitter. Of his 58 hits, only 5 were for extra bases (all doubles). He stole 20 bases in 22 attempts for the Chukars, and he struck out 8 fewer times than he walked (27 K's, 39 BB's). His OPS on the year was only .692, due in most part to his pretty sad slugging percentage of .300. I like him, though. I like the fact that he's got fantastic speed and his got a great eye and doesn't strike out much. Alvi Morel was signed by the Royals as a non drafted free agent on 11/8/02 out of the Dominican as an 18 year old (I'm guessing we thought he was 16 at the time). Morel started 41 games in left for Idaho Falls, and batted .301 with 1 HR and an OPS of .757. The vast majority of his at bats were from the leadoff spot.

Arizona Royals (Rookie Ball-short season)
The left fielders for the AZ Royals were Jarrod Dyson (50th rounder in the 2006 draft) and Nick Francis (15th rounder in '06). Nick posted a good batting average (.303) and OBP (.366) in his professional debut. He ended the season with an OPS of .792 in 155 ABs. Dyson batted .273 in 161 at bats, but appears to be a burner. He stole 19 bases in 23 attempts this season. He seems to keep the ball in play (18 walks and 30 strikeouts). His OBP was .373, but his slugging percentage was a paltry .373.

The Royals seem to be stockpiling some speedy left fielders in the minor league system. Dyson, Bigler, Santana, and even Lubanski all run very well. In terms of who brings the most to the table, I'd rank the Royals left fielders in this way:
1. Chris Lubanski -mix of power and speed.
2. Justin Huber-good bat, but no real position, yet. DH?
3. Brett Bigler-I liked this guy from the draft. A good batting eye and speed don't slump.
4. Nick Francis-barely worth ranking at this point. Put up decent numbers in pro debut.
5. Ethian Santana-didn't hit in the pitcher friendly Midwest League. He'll need to hit at least in the .270's with an OPS of around .750 to contribute much.

First Base Rankings

2006-10-24T12:33:00.000-04:00

I have heard on numerous occasions people talk about the glut of 1st baseman the Royals. Quite simply there is no glut. People just assumed that you could pencil in Huber, Butler, Teahen in there. Well Dayton smartly went out and got Ryan Shealy. He should be an league average firstbaseman for the next few years. It’s a good thing because the Royals have very little depth in the minors. Of course, the good news is that you shift people to play first easily.

Omaha:
Justin Huber—Huber is no longer a firstbaseman but the Royals don’t have a lot of first base prospects and I wanted to write about someone good. Whoever is writing about LF can feature Huber again.

I still like Huber. I think he can be a good LF-perhaps even an above average LFer. Just a year ago, this guy hit 343/432/570 in the Texas league. I fear that Dayton is not as high on this guy and may trade him for something less valuable. Huber got off to a blistering start, was called up to ride the bench and then got sent down where he went into an awful slump, got hurt and then rebounded to have an 838 OPS. He certainly seems to have no future with this club as it is expected that Mark Teahen will move to LF. Huber could definitely come in handy when Mike Sweeney get hurts.

If Dayton is going to trade him, I would want someone like Erik Aybar or Hayden Penn.

Wichita:
Kila Kaaihue—I really likedKila coming into the year—coming off his 925 OPS at High Desert. Sure it would drop some as he entered more sane hitting environments. But Kila’s OPS this year was 602. Ouch. He was a little better after the All Star break by having an 787 OPS—still nothing to write home about from a firstbaseman. Perhaps he will move to Omaha and try to regain the plate discipline that helped him look like a poor man’s Nick Johnson.

High Desert:
Mike Stodolka—the #4 pick in the 2000 draft moved from the mound to the batters’ box with decent results. He posted an 845 OPS. He also has hit well in 30 AB’s in the Hawaian Baseball League, posting a 1033 OPS. Of course being a 25 year old first baseman in the Cal League puts those numbers in perspective. He had a 911 OPS at home and 778 on the road. Stodolka is a nice story but not much of a prospect.

Burlington:
Miguel Vega has got good power and that’s about it. He had a 271 OBP. That is Berroa-esqe. He had 13 walks and 121 K’s. Vega was a 4th round pick a few years ago, but will probably get eaten alive in Wilmington this year.

Short Season Clubs:
Scott Lucas, Carlos Avila, and Jase Turner played 1st for our Short Season Clubs—none of them look like they are prospects.

Rankings:
Huber
Kaaihue
Stodolka
Vega
Avila
Lucas/Turner

What's on Second

2006-10-19T23:20:00.000-04:00

The Royals have gone through a never-ending carousel of second basemen since heralded prospect Carlos Febles disappeared. Since Febles left, the Royals have struggled to find a regular second basemen and the Royals cycled through a variety of prospects and utility infielders looking for a solution. Ruben Gotay and Donnie Murphy were considered the second basemen of the future, but they weren’t ready for full-time duty in 2005.

Last season, Allard signed Mark Grudzielanek to a one-year deal and the signing turned out to be his best signing of the offseason and one of the few bright spots in his horrible tenure as general manager. Grudzielanek was the Royals’ most consistent defender, helping to alleviate the damage caused by his teammate on the other side of second. Grudzielanek led the team in hits and had 43 extra base hits. The Royals resigned Grudzielanek for 2007 season, so the second base position is good shape.

Baird also acquired Esteban German from the Rangers in exchange for the Royals’ Rule V Pick last season. German turned out to be one of the bright spots in the Royals’ 2006 season, posting a team-high .880 OPS. German is an on-base machine with very good speed. German would allow the Royals to move DeJesus into the #2 spot in the lineup and have an excellent tandem of speed and on-base ability at the top of the lineup. That should set the stage for plenty of RBI opportunities for Butler, Gordon, Shealy, and Teahen over the next few years.

As you may have noticed, I haven’t talked about the minor league second basemen much and that’s because there’s not much to talk about. The Royals’ top second base prospect is Donnie Murphy. Murphy showed pretty good power this season at AA, hitting 25 doubles and 14 HRs. However, he drew just 19 walks in 366 ABs, so his plate discipline has a ways to go. Murphy is a pretty good defender, with above-average range for second. Murphy hits righties much better than lefties, with a .786 OPS against righties vs. a .531 OPS against lefties.

The Royals other option near the majors is Jeff Keppinger. Keppinger had a nice season for Omaha, hitting .354/.407/.465 in 127 ABs. Keppinger hit .267/.323/.400 in 60 ABs with the big league club. He's 26 years old, so he isn't much of a prospect at this point.

Wilver Perez was the Mavericks’ second basemen. Perez hit .262/.343/.350 in 351 ABs. Perez is 23 years old, so he’s a bit too old for High A ball. He is most likely an organizational player at this point.

Josh Johnson was the Royals’ third round pick in the 2004 draft and Burlington’s second basemen this season. Johnson hit .241/.391/.312 in 381 ABs and walked 93 times! He showed good speed, swiping 18 bases in 27 attempts. Johnson’s defense improved from 2005, making just 10 errors in 2006. Johnson is a decent sleeper prospect and might develop into a decent leadoff hitter with his excellent plate discipline and good speed.

Kurt Mertins had a nice professional debut. The 20-year-old from the College of Desert hit .342/.397/.431. Mertins also stole 26 bases in 30 attempts (only played in 61 games). Mertins might be worth watching for the same reasons as Johnson.

Marc Maddox was another collegiate second basemen drafted by the Royals this season. Maddox hit .336/.428/.504 in 232 ABs. Maddox showed more power than Mertins, with 29 extra base hits in 62 games.

Overall, the Royals have some depth at second base. The Royals already have a quality starting second basemen in Mark Grudzielanek and a solid player waiting to take over after the 2007 season in Esteban German. This should give the Royals an opportunity to add some more high-ceiling talent at second base. The Royals don’t have any standout prospects at second base, but have some young players who could emerge as second base prospects over the next few years.

The Long and "Short" of it

2006-10-17T21:49:00.000-04:00

On January 8, 2001, the Royals traded Johnny Damon to the A’s and received their shortstop of the future in Angel Berroa. The Royals also traded current A’s second baseman, Mark Ellis and received AJ Hinch and Roberto Hernandez. The Royals thought they were getting a 19 year old who was named an Arizona League All Star in 2000 while playing for the Arizona A’s and even logged 17 at bats in AA Midland. As it turned out, Angel was really two years older than the Royals thought. He made is Major League debut as a 22 year old on September 18, 2001. He won the AL Rookie of the year award after his 2003 season. He batted .287 with 17 HR and 73 RBI. He also stole 21 bases. His OPS has dropped each season since 2003 and he posted a sub .600 OPS in 2006. Angel has become known for his mental lapses and his reckless abandon at bat. He committed a career low 18 errors in 2006, and had a fielding percentage of .969. He is our current shortstop. He signed a 4 year/$11 million deal in May of 2004. He is due $3.25 M in 2007 and $4.75 M in 2008. The Royals hold a $5.5 M option for 2009 or could opt to buy the contract out at $500 K. So, with Angel under contract for the next two seasons, it is more than likely his job. Dayton could attempt to move him, but I’m guessing the list of suitors for a 29 year old SS with a sub .600 OPS and an $8 M price tag over the next two years is pretty short, if it exists at all. Anyway, here are the footsteps that Angel is currently hearing.

Andres Blanco and Angel Sanchez (11th rounder in ‘01) are the two prospects the Royals have that have already spent some time in Kansas City. Blanco, who will be turning 23 in April of 2007, has already notched 226 major league at bats. He signed as a non drafted free agent out of Venezuela on 8/20/00 as a 16 year old. He then moved very quickly through the system, despite posting very low offensive numbers at every stop. He made his major league debut in 2004 as a 20 year old. In just under 1,400 minor league at bats, Andres has hit .247 with 6 HR and 106 RBI. He has a career .625 minor league OPS. Due to his lack of any kind of offensive production, I’ve always been a little leary of Blanco. He is regarded as a better defensive SS than Berroa, but his offense is not there (although, at the rate Berroa is going, Angel will catch Andres, soon). I view Blanco as a Rey Sanchez, except not as good of a hitter. He’s a slap hitter who’s good with the glove. In 87 Abs with the Royals this season, he batted .241 with an OPS of .600.

Angel Sanchez is 23 years old and just finished 2006 in Wichita. He has posted much better offensive numbers than Blanco. Sanchez batted .282 with 4 HR and 57 RBI last season for the Wranglers. His OPS was .691 (.339 OBP). He is also regarded as an advanced defensive player. Blanco and Sanchez may split time in Omaha in 2007 between SS and 2B, unless Berroa is moved over the winter. Sanchez made his major league debut this season and batted .222 with an OPS of .436 in 27 Abs.

At the lower levels, the Royals SS prospects include Irving Falu (Mavericks), Chris McConnell (Burlington/Idaho Falls), and Jeff Bianchi (AZ Royals). There are some other names down there, but I don’t know any of them to be prospects. Michael Gaffney started 18 games at SS for the Mavericks this season. He will be 25 next season. Gilbert Gil started 17 games at SS for the Chukars in ‘06 and has one of the best names ever! Good ole Gil Gil (Gil2). He’s 21, but didn’t put up very good numbers. He hit .223 in 103 Abs, but the name made him worth talking about. Manual Juan is a player out of the Dominican. He might be the best of the rest. He is 19 years old and batted .271 with 3 HR and 27 RBI for the AZ Royals. His OPS was only .709, so nothing that is too special. There’s a "17" year old kid playing on the Dominican Summer League team. He batted .296 with 39 walks and 31 K’s. He posted an OPS of .804 with 15 stolen bases. Who knows if his age will change later or if they’ve got the age thing all figured out, yet.

Irving Falu (21st rounder in ‘03) batted .299 with 3 HR and 49 RBI for the Mavericks in ‘06. He stole more than 30 bases in a season for the second straight season. He posted an OPS of .737 this season. Whenever a guy plays at High Desert, you have to take a look at the splits (thankfully, that is the last year of that). Irving looks as though he definitely benefitted from being in High Desert. At home, he batted .344 with a .450 SLG and an OPS of .838. On the road, he batted .256 with a .320 SLG and an OPS of .638. During the month of August, Falu batted .398 in 123 Abs with an OPS of .948. On the whole, the numbers look good, but under the microscope, there are some question marks, there.

Chris McConnell (9th rounder in ‘04) had a rough go in 2006. The 20 year old began the year in Burlington and struggled mightily while with the Bees. He hit only .172 with a .455 OPS in 239 Abs. When Idaho Falls began play, McConnell was moved to the Pioneer League to play for the Chukars where he was an All Star in ‘05. Things got better, but it was not a return to the way things were. He hit .262 with 4 HR and 35 RBI for the Chukars over the summer. I imagine, he’ll return to Burlington in ‘07 (perhaps Wilmington if Bianchi is ready for Burlington) and try to answer some of the questions about what the Royals really have in him.

Jeff Bianchi (2nd rounder in ‘05) has accumulated 140 Abs with the AZ Royals over the past two seasons. He has a batting average of .414 and has an OPS of 1.221. He’s just having a hard time staying healthy. It appears that the Royals have something pretty special, here, but we’ll have to wait to see just how special. It was thought that he was an overdraft as a 2nd rounder, but he quickly hushed the critics by becoming a league All Star the summer after being drafted. He was limited to just 98 Abs that summer due to injury. He had 42 Abs in 2006.

Here’s how I’d rank them:

1. Jeff Bianchi (just turned 20 years old). Jeff has the best chance to be an impact major leaguer, but must stay healthy. I’d think the best case scenario still has him in KC no earlier than 2010. 2007 team...Burlington (if healthy)

2. Angel Sanchez (just turned 23 years old). I’d guess that Sanchez would project as a .250ish hitter in the majors with 4 or 5 HR. OPS would be in the range of .685. 2007 team...Omaha.

3. Irving Falu (23 years old). Irving has some good speed. His splits are very skewed, so I’m not sure what to expect, and he’s too far away from the majors to do much projection to the majors. I’d expect him to hit in the neighborhood of .260 next year in Wichita. 2007 team...Wichita.

4. Andres Blanco (23 years old). Those of you that know me know that I am not high on Blanco. He is a career .247 hitter in the minors with an OPS of .625. If he’s going to follow the same career path as Omar Vizquel, we’ll have to wait about 4 or 5 more years to see anything with the bat. 2007 team...Omaha/KC

5. Chris McConnell (20 years old). Chris is a big question mark right now. Is he the .330 hitter that was in Idaho Falls in ‘05 or the .170 hitter that was in Burlington in ‘06? 2007 will help answer many questions that face McConnell. I’ll stick him at the bottom until he does something else. 2007 team...Wilmington.

Third Base on the farm

2006-10-16T15:11:00.000-04:00

I get to look at who we’ve got in the pipeline at third base.

Omaha:
Rick Bell and Mike Coolbaugh split time playing 3rd at Omaha. This is exactly the thing I hope Dayton Moore never uses AAA for—holding on to bad players with no upside.

High Desert:
Ed Lucas was an 8th round pick in 2004 from Dartmouth. As a 25 year old in High-A, he hit 281/349/409/ in the hitter friendly confines that are the California League (his OPS at home was 890). Not a prospect at this point—just organizational filler.

Burlington:
Mario Lisson is an interesting guy. I picked him for a breakout last season. But he repeated Burlington and had almost the exact same season
2005 OPS—794
2006 OPS---789
He also stole 41 out of 52 bases. He was 22 last season and Burlington is tough ballpark for hitters. Not a great prospect and life won’t get any easier playing at Wilmington next year. But he has some tool and is worth keeping tabs on.

Idaho Falls:
Luis Catillo had a great year in limited AB’s for the Chukars. He had a 1025 OPS. On the negative side, he will be 23 soon. Organizational player.

Surprise Royals:
Jason Taylor was our 2nd round pick in last year’s draft. Many thought he would be drafted in later rounds. But the reports are that the Royals loved his athleticism and his bat. Some observers have questioned how athletic Taylor really is. He certainly didn’t stand out in his pro-ball debut. His OPS was 699 in 151 ABs. He was ranked as the 9th best prospect in Baseball America’s Arizona League Prospect rankings.

Wichita:
Oh, I forgot one guy. Of course the only reason it doesn’t really matter what these guys did is because of the fact that the BA Minor League POY was down at Wichita. Alex Gordon is the best prospect in baseball. He hit 325/427/588 and stole 22 out of 25 bases for good measure. He played good, sometimes great defense. His numbers would have been even better had he not had a nagging injury for about 5 weeks in May/June. His post All-Star break numbers were sick as he hit: 346/448/658. Think Scott Rolen, thinkMark Texeira, think of the Royals having a franchise player. The time is quickly approaching where the Royals will have to decide what to do with Mark Teahen (all signs point to a move towards OF).

Ranked:
Gordon
--BIG GAP--
Lisson
Taylor
Lucas
Castillo

Catching Down on the Farm

2006-10-13T23:58:00.000-04:00

Over the next few weeks, the Daily Lancer team will be doing an in-depth analysis of the Royals' minor league talent at each position. We'll let you know where the Royals' best depth and talent lies and how soon the Royals' prospects will make an impact on the big league club.

We begin with probably the weakest position in the farm system, catching. John Buck's lackluster performance over the past two seasons has made the catching position an increasing concern. Buck finished the season with an OPS of .702, a slight 26 point improvement over 2005. He's a solid defender behind the plate, which helps compensate for his weakness at the plate. He's the catcher of the future because the Royals simply don't have any better options in the minors.

Near the Majors: We begin our look at the minors with Paul Phillips and Matt Tupman. Paul Phillips has already seen some big league action, with 137 career at-bats and an unimpressive .270/.279/.380 line. He's walked just once in 137 at-bats, contributing to his low OPS. Matt Tupman's plate discipline is much better, with drawing 56 walks to just 33 strikeouts this season. However, his lack of power(SLG %.334) will keep him from becoming more than a backup. Both players are in their upper 20s, appear to be no more than AAAA players and backup catchers.

A/AA: Adam Donachie highlights the A/AA list. Donachie's prowess is his defense behind the plate, which is very good. His weakness is his bat. He struggled after being promoted to Wichita, with a .633 OPS. His home/road splits at Wichita also showed a strong home bias, with an OPS 148 points higher at home. Donachie is still young (22 years old), particularly for a catcher. So, his bat may improve considerably over the next few seasons.

The Royals drafted 3 college catchers in the 2005 draft, Kiel Thibault, Jeffrey Howell, and Brady Everett. All three did well in rookie ball, but only Thibault continued his success into this season. Thibault hit very well (.340/.398/.485 line) at High Desert, but struggled in the less hitter-friendly Midwest League.

I looked through the Rookie Leagues, but didn't find any prospects worth noting. Overall, catcher is a significant weakness in the organization. The Royals could use a good left-handed bat to counter Buck's weakness against righties. The Royals don't have any catching prospects who project as major league regulars, so the Royals will need to improve their depth in the upcoming draft and with any offseason moves.

Grades:
Depth: D-
Impact Talent: F

Up next: Third Basemen (i.e. Alex Gordon)

NWroyal is here.

2006-10-10T18:42:00.000-04:00

Thanks to David for the invite--I'm glad to be part of the team. I'm Darren, I live in Eugene, Oregon, but grew up in Grandview. I'm nwroyal on the scout board. I had just turned 8 when the Royals won it all in 1985. That started my interest in baseball. It was so fun to be a part of a winner--the World Champions. I figured this kind of success would follow the Royals and I started following them very closely. 21 years later and I'm still waiting for the next playoff game. But perhaps, even in the midst of 3 straight 100 loss seasons, we are closer than we have been in a long time to fielding a good baseball team. As the team floundered, perhaps it was natural that I turned some of my attention to the Royals minor leagues--I enjoy seeing the promise of young players. It is all too tempting to try imagine the "next" Brett or White or Saberhagen. I tend to be overly optimistic.

This offseason promises to be one of the most exciting in recent memory as The Great Dayton puts his stamp upon the team. We wil be here to follow it--we'll talk about the moves--trades, FA signings, Rule V draft. We'll break down the minor leagues, rate our prospects, provide info on the draft--I hope we'll have some fun debates. I'm no expert--but I'm a passionate amateur. I hope this will become the place to come to for information on future Royals and I hope you'll join the discussion. Play Ball!

GeorgiaRoyal Introduction

2006-10-06T14:03:00.000-04:00

I'm very glad to be on board here at The Daily Lancer. I've been a fan of the Royals since the glory years of the late 1990's. It was actually 1998, to be exact. I know, it seems odd to jump on the bandwagon at that point, but it was going pretty slow and it was pretty easy to get on there. I was just in time to enjoy a 72-89 season in Tony Muser's first full season as manager.

I blame Terry Pendleton, really. I was a Cardinal fan as a kid and Terry Pendleton became my instant favorite player when I met him at an autograph signing at Columbia Mall in Columbia, Missouri. My family moved to the suburbs of Atlanta, GA in 1989 and Terry Pendleton joined the Braves in 1991. After the Braves, Terry bounced around a little, but ended up with the Kansas City Royals. I had never followed AL ball before, and was intrigued by the DH and seeing the other half of the major leagues I'd never paid a lot of attention to. So, I began following Terry and the Royals during the 1998 season. He retired after the 1998 season, but I'm still here. Waiting for the year when it all comes together.

1998 wasn't all bad. Dean Palmer gave the Great Steve Balboni a run with 34 HR. Balboni remains the Royals all time, single season, HR record holder with 36 HR in 1985, as sad as that is here in the steroid era. Tim Belcher and Patt Rapp anchored the pitching staff while a couple of 23 year old lefties (Jose Rosado and Glendon Rusch) showed a hope for the future. At the end of the 1998 sesaon, Carlos Beltran and Carlos Febles made their debuts. "Dos Carlos" was all the hype going into the 1999 season, but only Uno Carlos actually did much after 1999.

The Royals drafted Jeff Austin with the 4th overall pick of the 1998 draft. It was at this point that I began my, as my wife calls it, nerdom about the Royals and their minor league system. I was aware of the draft, but never paid much attention until 1998. I realized that there were teams of players that were working their respective ways to the Bigs. I think I knew this before, but it just didn't register with me. Many won't make it, but they are all playing to be the few that do make it and make a difference in the Major Leagues. That's why I love it. Sure, it's been tainted a bit with all of the million dollar babies. They aren't actually roughing it through the bus leagues and such, but the vast majority of the guys are making huge sacrifices to play ball and cling to the hope that they could be one of the few that gets to play in the Majors.

That's where the hope, as a Royals fan, comes from. There are 7 teams of minor leaguers that are under the Royals control, not to mention the guys down in the Dominican. Which of these guys are destined to be "organizational guys" and which ones are going to be pieces of the championship puzzle? That's why I pay attention. I want to know as much as possible about these guys when they get to KC and I also want to know as much about they guys as possible that are just clinging to the hope that they might one day get there.

Daily Lancer Welcomes Two New Bloggers

2006-10-05T17:25:00.000-04:00

I decided to make some changes to the Daily Lancer, the most important being the addition of two new bloggers, georgiaroyal and nwroyal. The names may sound familiar from the scout.com board where they both post regularly. Georgiaroyal and nwroyal both follow the Royals' farm system very closely and will be great additions to the Daily Lancer.

The Daily Lancer is going to be dedicated to providing in-depth coverage of the Royals' farm system. Here's a few of the features that are in the works for the Daily Lancer:

-Nightly minor-league updates during the season
-Top prospect lists and depth chart complied by the Daily Lancer's minor league experts
-In-depth look at the Royals' top prospects, examining their past season's performance and projection/future roles in the organization
-Pre-draft coverage, including photos and first-hand accounts of some top draft prospects
-Photos and first-hand accounts of Royals' top prospects
-Examination of the minor league talent throughout the division

I hope you enjoy it!