Down goes the king

Joey Chestnut looked like he had just come from a massage. The mustard yellow belt hung off his shoulder. He stood next to the ESPN reporter for his pre-contest interview and spouted off cliches without a care in the world. Like a President in his final term, he didn’t have to answer to anybody anymore.

That should’ve been the first sign.

It had always been too easy for Chestnut since Kobayashi left. Wins No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, No. 7 and No. 8 in the Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog eating contest came and went without a challenger. Now he was looking for No. 9 and it might as well have been a forgone conclustion. The pre-game coverage showed a graphic of the most consecutive titles in any sport. Chestnut’s No. 9 would tie the record.

He had eaten 61 hot dogs in 10 minutes last year for the title. His next closest competition was Matt “Megatoad” Stonie, who downed 56. This year Stonie’s number was down. He qualified for Nathan’s by eating 48 hot dogs.

It was over before it began.

Then, right before the contest started, ESPN aired another interview clip with Chestnut.

“I’m just hoping I can do it one more time,” an introspective Chestnut said.

That was the first sign.

Chestnut seemed different there. His heart wasn’t in it. I wrote in my notebook: “Does this mean Joey Chestnut is going to retire?”

(Yes I took notes during a hot dog eating contest. This is serious business. I have no regrets.)

Right before the competition began, the ESPN sideline splash zone reporter dropped the bomb. Joey Chestnut had broken up wit his fiancee, the same one who was his eating coach, the same one he proposed to on the Nathan’s Famous stage a year earlier.

According to the New York Post, the two split because of Chestnut’s hectic competition schedule. They called it off weeks before the wedding.

A distracted, nostalgic, coach-less Joey Chestnut returned to the scene of his now ill-fated proposal to try to win his ninth competition in a row.

Like a mafia housewife, we chose to ignore the signs. We ignored Chestnut’s distraction, his overconfidence, his lack of real competitors to push him. We ignored the fact that Matt Stonie is better in the big moments, that he coasted to 48 hot dogs in qualifying against little competition. In the “Down Goes Chestnut” bonanza we even ignored that Chestnut, with all the distractions, still ate 60 hot dogs, that Stonie’s individual effort was one of the greatest we’ve ever seen.

As time ended and you wondered why the announcer wasn’t freaking out like you were when it became clear that Stonie won, Joey Chestnut stood doubled over on the table, in front of the remnants of the 60 hot dogs he had shoved in his mouth.

It might’ve been indigestion, but Chestnut looked shocked and a little bereaved, like he just lost everything and didn’t know what to do with his life. For the last eight years, Chestnut’s identity had been hot dog eating champion. Now he wasn’t.

In his post-contest interview Chestnut, stumbled around, not able to say much.

“I did bad,” Chestnut finally managed. “He deserved to win. Dang.”

Chestnut knows he threw this one away, knows he didn’t train as hard as he should’ve, knows he underestimated Stonie.

The signs were there.

“I’ve been looking for competition for a long time,” Chestnut said in his postgame interview. “Now I have it.”

Now there’s another sign. Let’s not ignore this one. For the first time since Kobayashi left (R.I.P. to his career), the Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest in intriguing again.

Long live Megatoad.

Other notes from the event:

• Direct from my notebook: Eric “Badlands” Booker might die in this competition.
• Best intro: “Three days ago, he broke up with his girlfriend and euthanized his dog so he could create a vast, black void inside that he can fill with hot dogs and buns.”
• Gideon Oji qualified with 16 hot dogs. He’s a Division II basketball player at Clayton State. Oji averaged 0.9 points per game last year.
• Oji finished with 19 hot dogs eaten. Clayton State put it on the front page of their athletics website. Their lead photo is very obviously a picture of a television:
• Shout out to Clayton State
• Best cross-sport reference from the color guy, in reference to Matt Stonie: “The Jordan Spieth of tubed beef.”

(Photo: Bridget Samuels)

The Red Wings lead the Lightning two games to one. They can lose every remaining road game and still win the series. But if the Red Wings advance, “winning” won’t be the right word.

The Lightning are too fast for the Red Wings. They’re just as deep offensively and have a better-skilled defense corps.

They’ve outshot Detroit in every game thus far. The Red Wings took 37.6 percent of the total shots through the first three games, the lowest amount of any team in any playoff series. Detroit’s Corsi For percentage for the series is 43.3 percent, the lowest of any team in the playoffs.

This wouldn’t be winning. This would be stealing.

The playoffs are the enemy of advanced stats. If Tampa Bay played Detroit in a series to infinity minus one, Tampa Bay would win. But the two teams play just seven games. That’s a long time to us, especially when dragged over two weeks. Put that against infinity minus one, though, and it’s the smallest fraction you can imagine.

Pucks can bounce one way for an entire series. Hell, they don’t even need to do that. All it takes is one bounce in one game. Since this sport is played by humans, negative human emotions like doubt, worry, and nervousness and/or positive human emotions like confidence and belief can take that one bounce and turn it into a series-long moment.

It takes only one to start having irrational feelings of confidence to change the series. The Red Wings might have a guy who can do it. His name is Petr Mrazek.

A team that’s consistently without the puck can only survive with a hot goalie. Coming into the playoffs, Mrazek wasn’t a candidate. He’s young and isn’t consistent enough to string enough fantastic starts together.

But the hot goalie can be a young guy. Scott Darling is 26 years old and played in 14 career NHL games before these playoffs. In 2012, Jonathan Quick was 26 and in his third season of action when he posted a .946 save percentage in the playoffs. That same year, Braden Holtby was 22 years old when his .935 save percentage pushed N0. 7 seed Capitals into the second round.

The consistency criticism is valid. It comes after watching him over the course of this season. But this isn’t the course of a season. This is now at most four games. He’s capable of keeping his head for three out of the four games. He’s done it multiple times.

Mrazek posted a .925 save percentage or higher in four straight games from Dec. 13 to Dec. 21. He had three straight games of the same ilk from Jan. 15 to Jan. 18, then had a .957 save percentage or higher in three games from Jan. 31 to Feb. 7. He even ended the season with a .929 save percentage or higher in three of his final four games. If Mrazek can repeat any one of those performances, the Red Wings likely win the series.

Barring a huge change in dynamic in the final four games of the series, the Lightning will still be the better team, no matter what happens. As the rest of the series moves into its later stages, they’ll probably prove that. But the best team doesn’t always win. Petr Mrazek is two games away from proving that.

Lions could saved a lot of trouble if they would’ve just signed D.J. Humphries out of High School and sent him to Double-A. (Photo: Army Recruiting)

If you ever needed evidence that Mock Drafts are worthless, I have it.

You don’t need to look at last year, when in all of the three months leading up to the draft exactly one expert had the Lions taking Eric Ebron, and he switched his pick two weeks later. All you need is the time period from March 18 to now.

We’re less than two weeks away from the draft. The picture should be clear. Or at least clearer. There should be a handful of candidates that the Lions could take with the No. 23 pick in the draft and the experts should be in relative agreement about who that group is.

Lol.

The experts are as split as they were a month ago. The top vote getter from March 18, Florida State DT Eddie Goldman, when from four votes to none. The top vote getter this round has three. A month ago, 15 experts picked nine different players. This time, 15 experts picked nine different players.

Ten of the 15 experts switched votes. (Those staying the same: CBS Sports’ Rob Rang, USA TODAY’s Nate Davis, Optimum Scouting’s Eric Galko, Lance Zierlein and NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah.)

Mock Drafts are fun, but it becomes clearer by the day: the so-called experts have as much insight into who the Lions are going to take you do. Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay have little on the random 14-year-old with an internet connection when it comes to predictability.

Here, take a look for yourself:

1T. Malcom Brown, DT, Texas (3 out of 15)

ESPN’s Todd McShay., Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller, NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein

Brown gained two votes from the game’s first round as McShay flipped from Florida State center Cameron Erving and Miller flipped from Oregon’s Arik Armstead. At least Miller came from somebody who played the same position.

1T. D. J. Humpries, OT, Florida (3 out of 15)

NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks, NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah, NFL.com’s Charles Davis

Humphries also gained two votes. Brooks came from Goldman while Davis came from Florida DT Jordan Phillips.

2T. Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford (2 out of 15)

CBS Sports’ Dane Brugler, SI.com’s Chris Burke

Peat is a new addition, mostly because I think everybody got bored with picking every other first-round lineman for the Lions.

2T. Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin (2 out of 15)

USA TODAY’s Nate Davis, Optimum Scouting’s Eric Galko

Gordon stayed stagnant as both of the experts who selected him stayed with their original pick. They’ve gained some trust if the Lions end up drafting Gordon.

5T. La’el Collins, OL, LSU (1 out of 15)

ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr.

McShay is bold…or bored. Most experts have Collins going way before the Lions can draft him. Then again, I’ve spent an entire article ripping these ‘experts’ so maybe Collins will be available.

5T. Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest (1 out of 15)

Fox Sport’s Peter Schrager 

The me of two years ago would be overjoyed if this actually happened, but now, it’s — as the kids say — whatever. I believe in Darius Slay.

5T. T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh (1 out of 15)

SB Nation’s Dan Kader

Lions? Let’s have them take the non-descript offensive lineman.

5T. Danny Shelton, DT, Washington (1 out of 15)

Rotoworld’s Josh Norris

Or the non-descript defensive linemen…

5T. Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami (FL) (1 out of 15)

CBS Sports’ Rob Rang

… no let’s stick with the offensive lineman.

(Nicole Yeary)

Last year the Red Wings had an excuse. They were injured all year. Success became keeping the playoff streak alive. Everyone knew the Bruins were bigger and better. Fans’ hope for a series win rested solely on reputation: the Red Wings tend to win playoff series. Losing to Boston brought no surprise.

The year before, the Red Wings won a playoff series, then lost to the eventual Stanley Cup champions. Well they choked it away. Up 3-1 in the series, Detroit let Chicago force a Game 7, and then allowed a Brent Seabrook overtime goal to win it. Detroit had a Cup run in them, they just didn’t receive the bounce they needed.

This Red Wings teams rests in-between those two. They aren’t bad enough to leave fans facing the choice between logic and hope, but they aren’t good enough to be considered Cup contenders. The Red Wings can win, but they’ll probably lose. That makes this year is closer to 2012. The No. 5 seed Red Wings lost to the No. 4 Predators in the first round. Mike Babcock sat after Detroit’s 2-1, series-clinching loss in Game 6 and said casually, “To me, five games, that’s not close.” He talked about needed to make a big change in the offseason. People wondered if it was finally the end for the Red Wings as a perennial playoff contender.

The Lightning performed better throughout the year. They didn’t collapse in the second half. They’re better offensively and just as good as Detroit defensively. They have better goaltending. Detroit has no answer for Steven Stamkos. Honestly, this one might not be close.

If it isn’t, the Red Wings foundation could crumble. Mike Babcock could bolt and reappear in Toronto as Ruler of Everything. Jimmy Howard might become damaged beyond repair. Petr Mrazek could go from being the next Jimmy Howard to being, well, the next Jimmy Howard.

The run will finally be over. Babcock’s era will end in disappointment, the Jimmy Howard era will without a Stanley Cup and the questions will turn to how long Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk can last. And just to kick fans while their down, it’ll be a Steve Yzerman team that destroyed the Red Wings run.

Then again, the Red Wings could win. Datsyuk and Zetterberg could prove that playoff experience means something, Detroit’s power play could return to it’s unsustainable form, and the Lightning could do the same thing they did last year. The Jimmy Howard era might still be over in Detroit, but the Red Wings run would continue.

One series, a pendulum swing one way or another depending on the result. This is probably an overreaction. I get that. Two counter points: 1.) Isn’t that what sports are for? 2) What if it’s not?

(Adam Glanzman)

Red Wings fans have panicked for the last two and a half months. They had their reasons. Detroit went from fighting for home ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs to fighting to get into the playoffs, and all those battles came just months after the Red Wings were one of the top three teams in the league.

The playoffs are here now. Detroit is in. But wide-eyed hope morphed into closed-eyed wincing. The Red Wings haven’t been good for three months. In their last 11 games of the season they posted a 4-4-3 record, good for 11 points. That’s the same pace they were on last year when inched into the playoffs and then lost in the first round.

But look past the record and there’s a fllicker of light. The Red Wings might be out of their second-half woes. Here’s a look at the numbers:

(*The splits don’t add up to the total because I didn’t include empty-net goals, short-handed goals, 6-on-5 goals, etc. on the chart.)

Their goal differential isn’t negative and their five-on-five goal differential is positive for the first time in three segments.

Detroit spent the middle part of the year as a good team masking itself as a great team due to an unsustainable rate of power play goals. The power play calmed down. The Red Wings showed themselves as the team they always were. But now, with a positive even strength goal differential, Detroit showed right before the playoffs that they might be a little better than above average.

There’s still hope.

Here were the top five Red Wings in terms of Adjusted GRM this segment:

(A note before the numbers: Unadjusted GRM favors forwards over defensemen. With two years of data we somewhat overcome that by making adjustments based on position. I averaged all the GRM totals from every segment ever recorded — including this one — separately for forwards and defensemen, and subtracted that number from a player’s score depending on his position. The average GRM for a forward was 0.68. For a defensemen it was -0.87. So a forward who posted a 0.00 GRM will have an Adjusted GRM of -0.68, while a defenseman with a 0.00 total GRM has an Adjusted GRM of +0.87.)

Top 5 Red Wings

1. Pavel Datsyuk, +1.91

2. Stephen Weiss, +1.73

3. Niklas Kronwall, +1.53

4. Jakub Kindl, +1.12

5. Gustav Nyquist, +0.58

Datsyuk played in eight of the 11 games this segment and was by far the Red Wings’ best player at even strength, posting a +1.89 5-on-5 GRM. The only other player to have over a +1.00 5-on-5 GRM was Justin Abdelkader at +1.25.

Weiss pushed his way into the second spot as a result of his contribution on the power play. He was involved in half of the Red Wings’ six goals with the man advantage.

Kronwall pulled off the rare feat of being a defenseman and not recording a minus. That combined with contributions on two Red Wings goals earned him a spot in the top five.

There’s always one player that sneaks onto the list as a result of a low playing time and the positional adjustment. This time it’s Jakub Kindl, who played in two games, but recorded two points in one of them. With no playing time he couldn’t record any negatives, so he arrive in the top five.

Nyquist had almost the same offensive GRM as Datsyuk (2.93 to 2.94), but giveaways like this one against the Sharks prevented him from being higher.

On the other side, here were the bottom five Red Wings in terms of Adjusted GRM:

Bottom 5 Red Wings:

1. Joakim Andersson, -2.66

2. Drew Miller, -1.76

3. Tomas Tatar, -1.58

4. Riley Sheahan, -1.42

5. Dan Cleary, -1.01

Yes, Andersson is here partly as the result of him being a penalty killer, but it’s not all that. Passing it to the other team and then losing your man in front of the net also had something to do with it.

Miller didn’t make a lot of mistakes. There was one penalty, one mistake on the penalty kill, and one even strength mistake. The last one came against Washington. He lost a battle and then didn’t cover his man, causing a Mike Green slap shot goal. But I guess we should give him a break. His face was sliced open.

Tatar posted decent offensive numbers but fell apart defensively. He contributed to five goals allowed, including this one. Not his finest moment.

All of Sheahan’s scoring, both for and against, came during five-on-five play. No other notes needed.

Cleary played in four games this segment, so he’s a victim of the positional adjustment. He had just one negative GRM event, and it came on the penalty kill.

(Photo: Jason Mrachina)

On Monday 25 players found themselves wearing the Old English D, standing shoulder to shoulder on the foul line as the national anthem played at Comerica Park.

They came from Virginia and Venezuela, Tennessee and Cuba.

How did this collection of human beings find themselves together?

Some arrived via trade, others came through free agency. Still others were drafted or signed out of their home countries.

Most roster spots opened relatively recently, but others find themselves on the Tigers roster due to a series of events almost 20 years in the making.

Last year Grantland’s Ben Lindbergh introduced the MLB transaction tree, which tracks a player’s roster spot lineage back through a series of trades and/or compensatory or supplemental draft picks to find the original draft pick or free agent signing that caused it all.

I’ve constructed transaction trees for each player on the Tigers’ 25-man roster (and one player on the disabled list).

Click each picture to get a larger version. Players in red are dead branches on the tree and, if applicable, weren’t included in subsequent trades. Direct links begin with earliest descendant by date.

Starters (Furthest back his roster spot goes): 

David Price (2005)

Matt Joyce -> Edwin Jackson -> Austin Jackson -> David Price

Justin Verlander (2004)

Anibal Sanchez (2009)

Jacob Turner -> Anibal Sanchez

Shane Greene (1997)

Fernando Rodney -> Chance Ruffin -> Doug Fister -> Robbie Ray -> Shane Greene

Alfredo Simon (2008)

Eugenio Suarez -> Alfredo Simon

Relievers (Furthest back his roster spot goes): 

Joe Nathan (2012)

Joakim Soria (2012)

Jake Thompson -> Joakim Soria

Bruce Rondon (disabled list) (2007 )

Al Alburquerque (2010)

Joba Chamberlain (2013)

Tom Gorzelanny (2015)

Angel Nesbitt (2009)

Ian Krol (1997)

Fernando Rodney -> Chance Ruffin -> Doug Fister -> Ian Krol

Infielders (Furthest back his roster spot goes):

Alex Avila (2008)

James McCann (2011)

Miguel Cabrera (2001)

Frankie De La Cruz/Mike Rabelo -> Miguel Cabrera

Victor Martinez (2010)

Ian Kinsler (2012)

Prince Fielder -> Ian Kinsler

Jose Iglesias (2005)

Brayan Villareal -> Jose Iglesias

Nick Castellanos (2007)

Brandon Lyon -> Nick Castellanos

Hernan Perez (2007)

Andrew Romine (2012)

Jose Alvarez -> Andrew Romine

Outfielders (Furthest back his roster spot goes):

Yoenis Cespedes (2014)

Rick Porcello -> Yoenis Cespedes

Anthony Gose (2006)

Devon Travis -> Anthony Gose

Rajai Davis (2013)

J.D. Martinez (2014)

The longest tree belongs to Shane Greene, who traces his lineage all the way back to the Tigers signing Fernando Rodney in 1997. Greene’s direct line has five different transactions, including the original signing, and involves nine different player. The tree has one more branch than Ian Krol, who also traces his lineage back to the Rodney signing.

So shoutout to Fernando Rodney.

The shortest and most recent tree goes to Tom Gorzelanny, who signed with the Tigers on January 6, 2015.

Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski built this team through trade. Of the 26 players, 12 came through trade, seven came through free agency, four came through the draft and three came through amateur free agency.

If you want to break the roster down by position:

Four out of five starting pitchers were acquired via trade. Justin Verlander is the outlier, who came via the draft.

The bullpen consists of two players acquired in trade, four players signed as free agents and two players signed as amateur free agents. The high number of free agents make sense. The bullpen is usually the most replaceable aspect in baseball.

Four infielders were acquired via trade, three came by way the draft one each came through free agency and amateur free agency.

Two outfielders came through free agency, two came through the draft.

So that’s how this collection of players became the 2015 Detroit Tigers.

A week and a half ago we found our next James Mungro Memorial Award presented by (sponsor pending) winner in Angel Nesbitt. Last week we  examined the end for Chris Bootcheck. 

Now, baseball is upon us and we have three active JMMA winners in different places.

Nesbitt made history. Three days ago he got the called to go into the office. As he describes it, he didn’t think anything of it.

“Hey Nessy, congrats, you made the team.”

Nesbitt is the first ever JMMA winner to make an opening day roster.

Y sin pensarlo solo tome el llamado a la oficina,hey nessy congrats YOU MAKE THE TEAM (you go to Detroit ) I didn’t know what I do is cry or just call my mama,but jus I have to say thanks GOD because I know he did that,and to that organization for that opportunity,like I says all the time WORK HARD OR GO HOME ! Thanks GOD #bendecido #GOD

A photo posted by Angel Nesbitt (@angelnesbitt) on Apr 3, 2015 at 8:55am PDT

Since then he’s doing what we would all do in that situation. Instagramming newspapers with him and Miguel Cabrera, pictures with his major league teammates, and his opening day name plate.

Nesbitt doesn’t pretend not be excited so he can look cool. He is doing what most people would do in that situation: freak out. I MADE THE TEAM DO YOU REALIZE I MADE THE TEAM? I DID IT WOOOO!

I’m just glad he has an Instagram to share it with us. This year’s JMMA went to the right person.

One up, one down

Nesbitt’s success comes at a price. Stone-cold assassin and ruler of all American League worlds Blaine Hardy is not on the opening day roster.

In a surprising move, the Tigers banished Hardy to the land of Toledo. Hardy posted a 4.35 ERA in spring training and batters hit .325 off of him, but most of the damage came early. He gave up three runs in his first appearance, another run in his fourth, and then posted five scoreless outings.

One-run outings in each of his last two appearances probably doomed Hardy to scorching the International League for at least a month.

Jose can you see 

But even without Hardy, Nesbitt has a fellow JMMAer joining him on an opening day roster.

Jose Alvarez will be an Angels’ reliever to start the season. Realizing he had a better chance to make the big league club, Alvarez switched from starter to reliever at the request of the Angels. After making the change he promptly lit up ballparks throughout all of Arizona. By the time spring finished Alvarez had a 2.00 ERA and the Angels had given him their long reliever spot.

This is a huge jump for Alvarez after missing most of the season with an elbow injury, which we only recently learned was actually surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow. 

Two JMMA winners in the majors, double the fun. With Alvarez on the West Coast, you should be able to routinely watch Nesbitt embarrass hitters early in the night then flip over and watch Alvarez do the same.

Not too long ago Jimmy Howard was an All Star. Through December he had a 0.921 save percentage. His goals against average hovered in the low twos. He was on pace for his best season in two years.

Now, with six games to go in the regular season, Howard watched from the bench as Petr Mrazek stole a point from the Senators on Tuesday and took another step towards solidfying himself — and not Howard — as the Red Wings’ playoff goalie.

What the hell happened?

If you listen to Jimmy Howard the answer is nothing.

From MLive: “Howard said his issues aren’t mental and he hasn’t lost confidence. He also said he’s fine physically and that his time off due to injury is no excuse for his inconsistency.”

He has a point. Howard and Mrazek’s overall numbers on the season are similar.

(Note: All stats courtesy of War on Ice. Here’s a definition of adjusted save percentage.) 

There’s less than a percentage difference in every category. Things don’t start to separate until you break it down by month. It all goes south in January, when Howard injures his groin.

Here’s a graph by month of Howard and Mrazek’s adjusted save percentage by month. Mrazek didn’t play in a game for the Red Wings in October.

Howard rebounded from the injury in February, bringing his adjusted save percentage up to 91.09, before having it drop below the 90 percent threshold again.

But Howard’s 5-on-5 save percentage actually improved from February to March, bringing it withing half a percent of his pre-January numbers.

Note: War-on-Ice didn’t list Howard’s adjusted 5-on-5 save percentage for January. I’m guessing he didn’t play in enough games. His regular save percentage that month was 89.6 percent. 

Howard hasn’t just been worse in all aspects. If that was the case his 5-on-5 numbers would’ve mirrored his overall save percentage and fallen. No, Howard’s struggle comes in one particular aspect: the penalty kill.

Howard’s shorthanded adjusted save percentage by month: 95.81, 84.27, 94.42, 64.31, 88.50, 71.57. Two out of the first three months good, three out of the next three bad to awful. Regression plays a factor. If Howard kept his shorthanded save percentage in 94-percent range he’d be one of the top two goalies in the NHL. But a fall to 71 percent is more than regression.

I have two theories. The first is luck. Howard has faced 72 shots while shorthanded the past three months. That’s a about two and a half total games. Every goalie has a bad couple of games every once in a while

The second theory: Jimmy Howard is either still injured or has re-aggravated his groin, despite what he says. Muscle injuries aren’t like broken bones. You don’t sit out for a few weeks, let it heal and then it’s good. They linger. For Howard it was less about getting back to 100 percent and more about getting back to being able to play well enough.

Most of the time goaltending is about tracking the puck, positioning and technique. You can do all that with a slightly injured groin. Hence the OK 5-on-5 save percentage rate.

But when you’re short-handed, the other team is moving the puck side to side. A goalie has to deal with more rebounds and scrambles in front. It’s less being in position and more recovering, more pushing across the net, more pushing out to cut off the angle on the point shot, more of needing your groin to fire. When it can’t at full power, the goalie is a second behind. That leads to goals.

Whatever the right theory, this could be a good thing. If he’s injured more rest for Howard should heal the groin. If it’s luck, the more games he plays the more he should regress towards the mean, this time in a good way for the Red Wings.

Goodbye friend.

On Friday, Angel Nesbitt became the fourth baseball winner of the James Mungro Memorial Award presented by (sponsor pending).

A few minutes after that was official he accepted my request to follow his private Instagram account. His reign off to a roaring start. But before he goes any further, it”s time to take a step back. Nesbitt should let the past be his guide. He should look to former James Mungro Memorial Award winners, especially the OG of the competition (outside of the original James Mungro, of course): Chris Bootcheck. 

I kept waiting for the Twitter announcement, for Chris Bootcheck in his @RHPBOOTCHECK way to announce he was a late addition to spring training for the Twins or the Rockies or the Pirates. It never came. A trip to the Dominican Republic winter league didn’t ignite interest. Now with opening day just a week away, this appears to be the end for Bootcheck.  He hasn’t signed with any team, and at this point, why would somebody give a chance to 36-year-old when you can take a random 23-year-old and hope he pans out?

For the first time since he was probably around eight years old, Bootcheck won’t spend the majority of his year playing baseball.

It’s a sad reality for the guy who made this stupid idea fun. If it wasn’t for Bootcheck’s dominance in the first competition, if he didn’t continue his dominance in Triple-A Toledo, if we never made him the leading vote getter for the Triple-A All-Star game and if he didn’t respond to his Twitter messages and take thinly veiled shots at me, I never would’ve had the fun I did with the competition.

Bootcheck made this small corner of the internet interesting and he did it in his unique way. His one-game stint with Yankees in 2013 against the Angels, the team that drafted him, after four years away from the majors ranks in the top five of the greatest sports moments of the decade.

He hung on as long as he could, but the game has finally passed Bootcheck. Baseball won. Baseball always wins. I know there’s a piece of him missing. He loved the game more than most. It’s easy to have love when you’re making $15 million a year and playing in front of sold out stadiums. Bootcheck loved the game through years of 15-hour bus rides, postgame peanut butter and jelly sandwiches and a minor league salary.

On his Twitter account that missing piece isn’t showing. Bootcheck is out pimping products and loving his kids. He seems like a man at peace.

He never won a World Series or won a Cy Young. He never came close, but those are pipe dreams. Those are thoughts for nine year olds as the lay on their gloves and look at the clouds on a summer day. For the older players, the ones that know what’s it’s like to be the 26th man and can identify with being not quite a prospect and not quite a major leaguer, Bootcheck’s accomplished what they all wish to.

He had a good run.

That’s goal for us all, isn’t it?

After two surprise and swift eliminations, we’ve reached the conclusion of this year’s chase for the James Mungro Memorial Award presented by (sponsor pending).

Two competitors remain: outfielder Xavier Avery and pitcher Angel Nesbitt.

Both have performed admirably and avoided the pitfuls — money, strippers, drugs, cars — that come with being a contender for the JMMA.

The only way to settle this is to go back through our Sacred Seven rules, one by one.

1. The award has to go to someone I’ve never heard of.

Check and check.

2. He must have at least an outside chance of making the team. 

Both players are still in camp. At this point that signifies both are close to making the team, if not on opening day than as a call up. But Avery is competing for a reserve outfielder spot. Nesbitt is competing for a spot in the bullpen. The latter position is a bigger mess. Nesbitt might not only make the team, but play a bigger part in its success or failure.

It’s always more fun to have a guy make the team and contribute. Advantage: Nesbitt.

3. He has to be good.

They both started strong, but this category has turned into a rout. As MLB pitchers ramped up their innings and teams cut their stragglers Avery’s offensive production dropped. Like off a cliff.

Nesbitt remains solid but not dominant. Their stats so far this spring:

Advantage: Nesbitt.

4. He can’t be a big-time prospect.

Nesbitt came into the spring as the Tigers’ No. 15 prospect according to MLB.com. If I had discovered DetroitTigers.com’s new policy of separating spring training invitees in a new tab from the outset, Nesbitt probably wouldn’t have qualified for the competition at the beginning.

I could have retroactively booted Nesbitt from the competition, but the fact that the Tigers have literally the worst farm system in Major League Baseball kept him around and he capitalized. Sometimes you need a break.

Avery was a prospect like three years ago. He’s a non-roster invitee now.

Advantage: Avery, but not by as much as it should be.

5. The name has to be catchy.

Xavier Avery is sharp. The ‘av’ in both names allows the two names to flow well together and the shortness gives it a bite.

Angel Nesbitt is strong, but more wordy and complicated. I also still don’t know the correct pronunciation of his first name. Is it Angel or is it Ahn-hel?

Advantage: Avery.

6. Ideally, he would have a distinct characteristic

Avery is cool, and really fast.

Nesbitt looks like an NFL fullback.

We’ll only see Avery’s coolness and fastness is glimpses. We’ll see Nesbitt’s Terminatorness every time we look at him.

Advantage: Nesbitt.

7. No feature stories can be written about him in at least the first half of training camp. 

Technically neither player had one written about him in the first half, but Nesbitt’s came just after halfway point and he’s getting plenty of pub now. A day ago, MLive wrote a long hypothetical on how Nesbitt could make the team. 

Avery has garnered little to no fan fare as he worked his way on the cusp of a roster spot.

Advantage: Avery.

So in our Sacred Seven rules, both took four, including their tie in being people I’d never heard of before the competition.

But that’s not everything. While one player might’ve fulfilled a requirement better than their counterpart, that doesn’t necessarily mean the other player didn’t also fulfill the requirement. In fact in every situation but one both players fulfilled the requirement if you squint your eyes enough.

The exception: Rule No. 3. “He has to be good.” There’s no way to flip those stats. Xavier Avery was once good. Now he’s not.

We need somebody that can lay waste to the American League. Angel Nesbitt is that person and he is the seventh winner of the James Mungro Memorial Award presented by (sponsor pending).